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Mandarin Version - Market Technical Reading: Short-Term Technical "Sell" Mode Ahead... - 19/04/2010
Mandarin Version - Market Technical Reading: Short-Term Technical "Sell" Mode Ahead... - 19/04/2010
每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE
2010 年 4 月 19 日
市场技术解读
将陷入短期技术性“卖出”格局…
本地股市的交投指引∶
♦ 马股周五陷入沉重抛压,归咎于有关中国所实施冷却产业领域的新措施迫使主要亚洲股市猛挫,从而打击了本地交投士气。
♦ 除此外,由于美国申请失业津贴人数意外地于上周增加,加上美国期货市场因谷歌(Google)取得低于预期的季度盈利而下
挫,迫使了区域投资者纷纷转为谨慎。
技术解读∶
♦ 随着空方主宰大盘,富时综指上周五划出一根巨大“看跌抱线型态”(bearish engulfing),显示当前的套利走势将会延
续。
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2010 年 4 月 19 日
每日交投策略∶
♦ 更令人担心的是,近来的市场领头羊如胶手套股、科技股和一些汽车股也在周五承受显著的回调,这意味着大市的交投情绪
已转恶。
♦ 技术而言,由于富时综指位于 10 日移动平均线以下,因此市场如今处于短期“卖出”的格局内。
♦ 同样不利的是,华尔街股市和欧洲股市于上周五的大幅调整,以及美国金融领域陷入不明朗的局势,可能会进一步冲击本地
股市的交投情绪。
表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶主要海外指数及原产品
4月 4月 4月 4月 4月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 12 日 13 日 14 日 15 日 16 日 本地主要指数 (点) (%)
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,332.77 -6.06 -0.5
374 238 375 293 201
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 8,780.12 -53.27 -0.6
367 494 325 406 495
平盘 富时大马创业板 4,207.32 -31.69 -0.7
265 260 282 298 305
无交易 各大海外指数
351 366 375 363 359
道琼斯工商指数 11,018.66 -125.91 -1.1
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,481.26 -34.43 -1.4
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,192.13 -19.54 -1.6
(百万股) 1,106 1,028 845 1,045 784 伦敦金融时报指数 5,743.96 -81.05 -1.4
总成交值 恒生指数 21,865.26 -292.56 -1.3
(百万令吉) 1,658 1,413 1,364 1,638 1,207 雅加达综合指数 2,878.67 -21.86 -0.8
东京日经 225 指数 11,102.18 -171.61 -1.5
外汇 首尔综合指数 1,734.49 -9.42 -0.5
令吉兑美元 3.2060 3.2210 3.1990 3.1925 3.1880 上海综合指数 3,130.30 -34.67 -1.1
曼谷综合指数 736.16 -24.74 -3.3
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg) 富时新加坡海峡时报指
数 3,007.19 -9.75 -0.3
台湾加权指数 8,111.57 -60.37 -0.7
印度 Sensex 指数 17,591.18 -48.08 -0.3
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 83.24 -2.27 -2.7
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,518.00 8.00 0.3
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 3 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
16 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 4 月 27 日-28 日
委员会(FOMC)会议
Page 2 of 6
2010 年 4 月 19 日
图 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(日线图) 图 4∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(单日线图)
技术解读∶
♦ 鉴于区域股市出现强力抛售动力,导致本地股市上周五一再进一步回调。
♦ 虽然如此,期指仍创下另一根利淡阴烛,显示将出现跟进卖压动力。
♦ 这股跌破 10 日移动平均线的技术跌势已提高了它在近日进一步回调的机率。
♦ 我们认为,若它在今日无法收复 10 日移动平均线的话,那么期指将开始启动一轮整盘期。
每日交投策略∶
表 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)收盘
FKLI (月份) 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 4 月 1344.50 1344.50 1330.50 1336.00 -5.00 1336.00 4234 19098
10 年 5 月 1343.00 1343.00 1330.50 1335.50 -5.50 1335.50 286 717
10 年 6 月 1342.00 1342.50 1330.00 1334.00 -6.00 1335.00 124 503
10 年 9 月 1342.00 1342.00 1331.00 1331.00 -8.50 1335.50 29 232
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2010 年 4 月 19 日
图 5∶美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)(日线图) 图 6∶美国纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)(日线图)
美国股市的交投指引∶
♦ 由于美国证券交易委员会(SEC)出人意表地控诉高盛集团(Goldman Sachs),加上一些令人大失所望的业绩消息,华
尔街股市便在周五结束近日的涨潮。
技术解读∶
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2010 年 4 月 19 日
每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶ 马航( MAS)(日线图) 图 8∶ 马航(单日线图)
♦ 当 10 日移动平均线往上突破 40 日移动平均线后,动力便大幅改善,从而触发了一个中期“买入”讯号。
技术解读∶
Page 5 of 6
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.
This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.
RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
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information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.
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Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.
Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.
RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.
This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for the
actions of third parties in this respect.
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