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Taiwan&the
HarmoniousWorld:TowardPeacefulResolution?
IwrotethispaperinJune2011formyclassofPoliticalEconomyofEastAsia.Enjoy!

TaiwanandtheHarmoniousWorld:
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Towardpeacefulresolution?
June2011
Abstract:
ThispaperdiscusstherecentdevelopmentbetweenthegovernmentsofthePeoplesRepublicofChinaandthe
Republic of China, especially in light of the new foreign policy adopted by Hu Jintao in 2005, the Harmonious
World.
The Taiwan issue has always been a very hot topic, both in the domestic area as well as on the international
scene. Historical events have created a imbroglio in which ideologies and politics are strongly opposed.
However,recenteventshaveputsomehopethatapeacefulresolutioncanbereached.
Inthispaper,Ireviewthehistoricalbackgroundaswellasthecurrentrelationshipandpoliciesacrossthestrait.I
arguethateventhoughpoliticalissuesstillundermineanyresolution,economicintegrationcaneventuallyreunify
Taiwanwiththemainland.
Introduction
ThestatusofTaiwanisaverysensitiveone,whichstirsstrongemotionsonbothsidesofthestrait.Sincethe
end of the Chinese Civil War, there have been many attempts on both sides to find a resolution to this long
standingconflict,buttherewasalsomanyinstanceswheretensionsrosequicklyandwarwasntfaraway.
Indeed,twicealreadydidtheUnitedStatesofAmericathreatenedthePeoplesRepublicofChinawithnuclear
retaliation in case of military actions against Taiwan. Today, both sides of the strait are heavily armed and
hundreds of missiles are pointing towards each others cities. This fragile and dangerous situation is furthered
weakenedbyalonghistoryoffewornocontactsbetweenthepoliticalentitiesonbothsides,eachgovernment
refusingtodiscusswithwhattheyconsidertobeanillegitimategovernment.
However,overtheyears,manyofficialsfrombothcoastshavebeenpleadingandofferingwaystoresolvethis
conflict peacefully. But these offers have been thwarted many times by stubborn and short sighted politicians
who do not believe in compromise and dialogue. Over the last 10 years, there has been very few contacts
between the two sides, and tension escalated quickly. But with the election of Ma Ying Jeou in 2008 and the
subsequentreopeningofdialogue,thereishopeforapeacefulresolution.
In this paper, we will first analyze quickly the status of Taiwan, the claims on both sides of the strait and the
currentcrossstraitrelations.WewillthenseehowtheHarmoniousWorldputforwardbyHuJintaoofferssome
hopeandhowtheissueofTaiwancouldberesolvedpeacefully.
I.ThestatusofTaiwan
ThestatusofTaiwanisoneofthemostcomplexquestionofthe20thcentury.Forthreehundredyears,Taiwan
waspartoftheChineseempire.TheislandwasfirstcolonizedbyDutchsettlersduringthe17thcentury.Itwas
then ruled by Ming loyalist forces before being integrated in the Qing Empire in 1683. Even under Qings rule,
Taiwan was at first not considered more than a ball of mud beyond the pale of civilization, neglected and
ministersevenconsideredleavingtheisland.
However,whenWesternpowersstartedtoshowinterestfortheisland,theQingEmpiredecidedtospeedupits
development: Taiwan was given the status of province in 1885, and within 10 years it became the most
modernizedcountyoftheQingsempire.Thiswasnottolast:in1895,thetreatyofShimonosekisignedatthe
endoftheSinoJapanesewarperpetuallycededtheislandtoJapan,andTaiwanbecamepartoftheJapanese
empireforthenext50years,untilitsdefeatattheendofWorldWarII.
Duringthisperiod,TaiwanesepeopleweredividedbetweenthosewhowereeagertobecomeJapanesecitizens,
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those who fought to restore Taiwan to China and those who fought to achieve independence. The proChinese
andproindependencegroupswerefoughtveryactivelybytheJapanese,andtheislandcontinuedtomodernize
anddevelopveryquickly.Primaryeducationwascompulsory,anefficientbureaucracywasimplemented,public
healthwasgreatlyimproved,aneliteconstitutedandastrongindustrialbasewasexpanded.Theultimategoalof
the Japanese empire was to integrate Taiwan as part of Japan, and make Taiwans inhabitant loyal to the
Japanese Emperor. As such, Japanese culture was widely promoted. This policy, combined with an overall
increaseinstandardsoflivingandanefficientadministrationoftheislandwasverysuccessful.Itshouldalsobe
notedthatover125,000TaiwaneseservedintheJapanesearmedforcesduringWWII,andsome30,000diedas
aresult.
Duringthe1943Cairoconference,theAlliedPowersagreedthatallJapaneseterritoriesthathavebeenannexed
ortakenbyforceshouldbehandedbacktotheirpreviousgovernments.InthecaseofTaiwan,itwasspecified
that the island should be handed over to the Republic of China. However, this declaration was not a legal
agreement,butmerestatement.
In 1945, the KMT received the surrender of Japanese forces on the island, a date remembered as Taiwan
RetrocessionDay.TheUSorderN1gavetotheRepublicofChinatheprovisionalcontroloftheislandonbehalf
oftheAllies.
However, Taiwan continued to be a Japanese territory until the enforcement of the Treaty of San Francisco in
1952.AsneithertheRepublicofChinanorthePeoplesRepublicofChinawereinvitedtothisconference,the
sovereigntyofTaiwanwasstilluncertain.Attheexactsametime,theSinoJapanesePeaceTreatywassigned
betweenJapanandtheRepublicofChina,underpressurefromtheUS.Buteventhoughthetreatyemphasizes
the renunciation of Japanese claim over Taiwan, it doesnt explicitly provides the sovereignty transfer
mechanismfromJapantothePRCortheROC.
Thus, since 1952, numerous comments have been made about the status of Taiwan, and recently Jonathan I.
CharneyandJ.R.V.PrescottwroteintheAmericanJournalofInternationalLaw,July2000:noneofthepost
World War II peace treaties explicitly ceded sovereignty over the covered territories to any specific state or
government. Rather, they formally nullified the sovereignty of Japan that was derived from the 1895 Treaty of
Shimonoseki.
Inaddition,in2004,CollinPowellsaid:Taiwanisnotsovereign.ThestatusofTaiwanisthusnotlegallyclearly
defined.
With the end of the Chinese Civil War and the retreat of the KMT to Taiwan, the state of war between the
Republic of China and the Peoples Republic of China continued until 1979, when the US and the PRC
establisheddiplomaticrelations.Untilthen,bombardmentsandsmallscalemilitaryactionswerecommonacross
thestrait.
In1971,thePeoplesRepublicofChinawasrecognizedasthesolegovernmentofChina,andtheRepublicof
ChinawasexpelledfromChinasUNseat.Sincethen,thecurrentstatusofTaiwanissimilartothestatusofthe
PRC before 1971. As both government dont recognize each others, nonofficial organizations were created to
allow dialogue across the strait, and since then most of the exchanges have been made through the Strait
ExchangeFoundation(SEF,ROC)andtheAssociationforRelationsAcrosstheTaiwanStraits(ARATS,PRC).
Inthelate1980snegotiationsacrossthestraitculminatedinthecontroversial1992consensus,whereboththe
PRCandtheROCagreedthatthereisonlyoneChinaandthatTaiwanispartofChina,butthattheydifferonits
definition.
Finally,whilethePRCisnowamajorinternationalentity,theROCiscurrentlyrecognizedby23mostlysmall
states and is barred from entering any international organization under the name China. From 1992 to 2008,
Taiwan has been applying every year for a UN seat and consistently denied. Major efforts by the PRC to
undermineTaiwansinternationalstatussucceeded,andthus,whileTaiwanisaveryimportanteconomicplayer,
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itspoliticalandinternationalroleisverysmall.
TheactualstatusofTaiwanisoneofstatusquo,asituationwhichissupportedbymostTaiwanese:theisland
is not independent from mainland China, yet the PRC does not control it. In effect, Taiwan is not de
jureindependent,butitisdefactoruledbyanindependentgovernmentfrommainlandChina.
II.CurrentCrossstraitRelations
Overtheyears,thePeoplesRepublicofChinaandtheRepublicofChinaalwaysstoodbytheideathatTaiwan
is part of China and that their respective governments were the legitimate ones. However, Taiwan stopped
planning for an invasion of the mainland in the mid 1950s, when it was clearly impossible for them to retake
mainland China. The US pressured the ROC government to avoid making anything that would be seen as
provocativebythePRCandthatcouldsparkwar.ItmustalsobenotedthattheUSgovernmentdoesntsupport
orrecognizeTaiwansindependence.
With Taiwans democratic reforms of the mid 1980s, an independence movement started to emerge.
IndependencewastabooduringtheWhiteTerrorthatlastedfrom1949until1987,sincetheKMTwassupporting
the idea that there is only one China and that Taiwan is part of it. With the democratic reforms, independence
quicklygainedpopularity.In1995,theKMTchairmanLeeTengHui,whowasseenbythePRCasmovingaway
fromtheOneChinapolicyandsupportingTaiwanindependence,wasafavoriteforthepresidentialelections.
ThisledtothethirdStraitCrisisin1995/96duringwhichthePRCconductedmissiletestsandmilitaryexercises
nearTaiwan,inordertoinfluencetheelections.ItonlysucceededinboostingLeeTengHuivotesby5%,more
arm selling from the US to Taiwan and a stronger JapaneseUS relationship. However, it also made the
Taiwanesestockmarketfallby17%,andresultedincapitalflightandrealestatepricesgoingdown.
Thesameyear,JiangZemingofferedstepstowardresolutionoftheconflictandapeacefulreunificationinhis8
points.However,theROCgovernmentstubbornlyrefusedtonegotiateortalkandby1998,allofficialandnon
officialcontactswerebroken.
In 2000, Chen Shuibian, another proindependence president, was elected in Taiwan. He clearly stated that he
wasagainstthe1992ConsensusandtheOneChinapolicyandthathefavoredindependence.Suchtalkwas
notwelcomedbythePeoplesRepublicofChinawhichansweredthatifallpeacefulsolutionswereexhaustedor
ifTaiwanwastodeclareindependence,nonpeacefulactionswillbetaken.Thisresultedinmilitarybuildup,as
wellasamajoreffortsbythePRCtoundermineTaiwansinternationalstatus.
Eventhoughtherewasmuchtensions,somerelationsstartedtoimproveabit.Charterflightsacrossstraitwere
proposed, but issues over the branding of such flights were raised: the Peoples Republic of China wanted to
classifythoseflightsasdomesticandtheRepublicofChinawantedtoclassifythemasinternational.Disputes
aboutbrandingandnamesarealltoocommonincrossstraitrelations.Theslightestsubtletiesareusedinorder
toconveythegovernmentsideas.
Butintheend,thePRCbelievedthattherewasmuchtogainfromsuchflightsandbrandedthemasspecialor
crossstrait. These flights were at first only operated during the Lunar Chinese New Year, and a high cost
resulted from these: planes had to fly over Hong Kong, Macau, South Korean or Japanese air zones. But the
public on both side of the strait were very supportive of this initiative and, due to the popularity of the flights,
directflightswereestablishedin2008,tomuchofthepublicenthusiasm.Thetrafficgrewquicklyandin2010,
therewas370directflightsperdayacrossthestrait.
ButinTaiwan,independencetalkscontinued,andinMay17,2004,HuJintaogaveTaiwan2options:renounce
toindependenceorcontinuetoplaywithfireandassumetheconsequences.Healsolaidouthis7points,calling
fortherenewalofnegotiationsanddialogue,aswellasmoreeconomicexchanges.Thiswasmostlyignoredby
the Taiwanese leadership, and officials in mainland China started to believe that previous policies in regard to
Taiwandidnotwork.
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In 2005, as a result from the continued independence talks and other provocative moves by the government of
Taiwan, an Antisecession law was passed in PRC, explicitly stating that nonpeaceful actions will be taken
should there be any independence declaration or if peaceful means were to be exhausted. At the same time,
several high level visits of KMT officials to the PRC opened the door for peaceful communication and
negotiations. It also allowed to establish more economic ties. While this initiative was welcomed in PRC, the
publicopinioninTaiwanwassplit.
In the last years of Chen Shuibian presidential mandate, more provocative actions were taken, such as the
changeofnamesofSOEs,embassiesandrepresentativeofficesfromChinatoTaiwan.Manybelieveditwas
unnecessary provocation, including the US. This was changed back with the election of the KMT in 2008. But
Taiwan was still in a grey area: a July 2007 US report stated that the US still didnt recognized the PRCs
sovereigntyoverTaiwan.
While the last decade saw increased tensions in the crossstrait relations, the election of the KMT in 2008
allowedsomeofthemtoease.TalksbetweentheStraitExchangeFoundation(SEF,ROC)andtheAssociation
forRelationsAcrosstheTaiwanStrait(ARATS,PRC)resumedafteradecadewithouttalks.Indeed,whenthe
chairmanoftheARATSdiedin2004,hewasntreplacedbefore2008!
Thankstotherenewalofnegotiations,theThreeLinks(boat,airandcommunicationservices)werereopenedfor
the first time since 1949. When it was first proposed by the PRC in 1979, it was greeted by the Three Noes
from the ROC president: No contact, no compromise, no negotiation, and over the years, struggles and petty
issuesblockedthereopeningofthoseservicesacrossthestrait.Itthustookabout30yearsfortheThreeLinks
tobeestablishedonceagain.
Overall,sincethebeginningofthepresidencyofMaYingJeou,therehasbeenamuchbetterrelationshipacross
the strait. The PRC offered 2 pandas to the Taipei Zoo, a food alert was set up across the strait and official
visitscontinued.By2009,mainlandinvestorswereallowedtoinvestintheTaiwanesestockmarketandbilateral
tradecontinuedtogrowquickly.
The current situation is thus looking brighter. As we have seen, even though the relationship across the strait
wasverydifficultinthepast,itrecentlywarmedupandwecanonlywishforthetwogovernmentstogetcloser
andfindapeacefulsolution.WewillnowlookattheHarmoniousWorldputforwardbyHuJintaoin2005asthe
new foreign policy for the PRC. We will see how it influences the issue of Taiwan and how it can lead to a
peacefulresolutionoftheconflict.
III.TheHarmoniousWorld&Taiwan
In2005,HuJintaomadeaspeechcalled:StrivetoConstructHarmoniousWorldofLastingPeaceandCommon
Prosperity.ThiswasthebasisforthenewChineseforeignpolicy.Inhisspeech,thePRCPresidentcalledfor
mutual and equal respect, economic cooperation, winwin progress, cultural diversity, cooperation on security
mattersandpeacefulsettlementsofconflicts,aswellasenvironmentalcooperation.
SincetheendoftheColdWar,thePRCdecidedtofollowanonenemydiplomacy,reachingtoothernationsin
ordertobuildtrustandcooperation.Thispolicylargelysucceeded,andintodaysworld,thePRChasonlyfew
countriesitregardsaspotentiallythreatening.
InadditiontotheHarmoniousWorldpolicy,thePRChadalonghistoryofestablishingdiplomaticrelationsbased
ontheFivePrinciplesofPeacefulCoexistence,whicharedescribedasfollow:
Mutualrespectforeachothersterritorialintegrityandsovereignty,
Mutualnonaggression,
Mutualnoninterferenceineachothersinternalaffairs,
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Equalityandmutualbenefit,and
Peacefulcoexistence.
FirstsignedwithIndiain1954,itwastheframeworkonwhichbothnationsintendedtocooperate,butitrapidly
became the basis of diplomacy in Asia and in the NonAligned Countries creation in Belgrade in 1961. Even
though the SinoIndian war broke out only 8 years after the signature of these principles, it still remains one of
thepillarsofthePRCsforeignpolicy.
However,sinceTaiwanisnotacountryandthatthePRCmaintainsthatitisapartofChina,theHarmonious
World or the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence do not apply as guidance for crossstrait relations. In the
past, we have seen that threats on both sides could escalate very quickly and that military actions were
sometimesveryplausibleoutcomes.Butrestraintfromusingforcehasuntilnowalwaysprevailedanddialogue
andnegotiationhaveshownthatabetterwaycanbefound,withbothsidesgainingfromit.
EventhoughTaiwanisconsideredasaprovinceofChinaratherthanaseparatecountry,theHarmoniousWorld
policyinfluencestheissuestrongly.GiventhatChinaisnowaworldsuperpower,withastrongeconomy,aUN
Security Council seat and an ever growing international position, it faces the potential consequences of using
forcetoresolvetheTaiwaneseissue.
As a global power, the PRC has an international responsibility that restrains the country from using power in
indiscriminate ways. One of its responsibilities is toward its own citizen, by promoting economic development.
As Taiwanese citizens are considered by the PRC as Chinese citizens, engaging in military actions against
Taiwanwouldbeabreachofsuchresponsibility.
In addition, the international community has great expectations and questions about how the PRC will use its
newly acquired power to shape the world. Governments and people around the world will be shocked if any
forceful actions were to be taken against Taiwan: how would they then trust the PRC stated goals of peaceful
developmentifthecountryusesforceagainstwhatitregardsasitsowncitizens?
The Peoples Republic of China regards Taiwan as an internal matter and doesnt welcome any foreign
intervention.Overtheyearshowever,theinternationalcommunitywasalwaysmoreorlessinvolved.Duringthe
fightforrecognitionthatlastedfrom1949untilnow,bothgovernmentswerecourtingothercountries,lookingfor
support and more leverage against the other side of the strait. In addition, the US have been involved heavily
sincetheKoreanwar.
ItshouldbenotedthattheUSdidnotinitiallysupportChangKaiShek,thinkingthattheRepublicofChinaand
Taiwan would soon fail and be taken over by the PRC. But with the outbreak of the Korean War and the
polarization of the world between Communism and Imperialism, the US started to support actively Taiwan,
offeringmilitaryprotectionincaseofattack,militarytrainingandarmsales.
In 1971, the international community then removed the Republic of China from its UN seat. Taiwan became
quickly became increasingly isolated on the international scene. However, even 40 years after its demises, its
economicforceisstillstrongandTaiwanmanufacturesmanyproductsthattheworldrelieson.
To conclude, should the PRC attempt to reunify Taiwan with China by force, the world will lose trust in the
HarmoniousWorldofLastingPeacepromotedbyHuJintao.AsmuchasTaiwanisadomesticmatterforChina,
a peaceful resolution will prove to the international community the determination of the PRC to respect its
statements.
IV.Towardpeacefulreunification?
Onbothsidesofthestrait,governmentsagreeononepoint:TaiwanbelongstoChina,andeventuallytheisland
willbereunifiedwiththemainland.ThemainhurdleisthatwhilemainlandChinesesharethispointofview,the
Taiwanesepublicopinionismuchmorefragmented.
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ADecember2008pollshowsthat48%ofTaiwaneseareopposedtoreunificationwithChinaatanytime,41%
preferthecurrentstatusquoand11%onlyfavoreventualreunification.In2010,asimilarpollindicatedthat61%
of Taiwanese prefer the status quo, 19% independence and 5% reunification. The young are particularly pro
independence,with75%ofthemconsideringthemselvesTaiwaneseratherthanChinese.
The last decade of nocontact policy initiated by Lee Teng Hui and followed by Chen Shuibian is certainly for
something in the results, and Taiwan now faces few choices: independence is out of the question with the
PRCsmilitarythreat,whichcouldsparkaregionalandeveninternationalwariftheUSdecidetointervene.This
is not certain given that after the termination of the SinoAmerican Mutual Defense Treaty in 1979, the Taiwan
RelationActwassigned.Therewasnomutualdefenseclauseintheact,andtheUShavesincethenfolloweda
strategyofambiguityincaseofattackagainstTaiwan.
TheotherpointworthnotingisthatindependencemovementshavealwaysexistedinTaiwan.Eventhoughthey
might not have been strong, and was fought actively by all countries ruling the island (Qing empire, Japanese
EmpireandRepublicofChina).BecauseoftherepressionofthemovementduringtheWhiteTerror,themodern
independencemovementshasrootsintheUSandJapan,fromwhichitcouldoperatewithoutbeingphysically
endangered.Withthedemocraticreformsofmid1980s,itwasallowedtocomebackontheislandandmanaged
tocaptureafairshareofthelocalelectoralprocess.
TherearemanyargumentsforTaiwansindependence,forexamplethefactthatoverthelast100years,itwas
onlyruledbythesamegovernmentasinmainlandduring4yearsonly.Inaddition,duringtheJapaneseruleof
theisland,theculturalidentitywastransformedfromChinesetoJapanese,withtheaimofintegratingtheisland
into the Japanese empire. While the Japanese rule lasted only 50 years, it was enough to have deep effects
withinthepopulation.
Indeed,whentheKMTfledandtookovertheislandattheendofWorldWarII,therewasabigbacklashagainst
it because of the corruption and the segregation implemented by the ROC government. This culminated in the
228 incident in 1947 which resulted in the establishment of the martial law and the beginning of the White
Terror, during which anyone opposing the government was jailed or killed. The martial law imposed in Taiwan
lastedfor38years,oneofthelongesttimeintheworld.Independencetalkswereforbiddensincethegoalofthe
KMT was to retake the mainland. The White Terror left the Taiwanese with a bitter hatred of the KMT and of
mainland Chinese in general. With the democratization process in place, this resentment was able to be
expressedinpublic.
One of the hot topic that started to appear in the late 1990s was the Taiwanese identity. Most Taiwanese
believe that their island has a unique identity, and thus, even though they consider themselves Chinese, they
dont believe that Taiwan is part of mainland China. However, China is a big country, with many different
ethnicities, languages and culture, which are considered as cultures. For example, a mainland Chinese from
HarbinwillhaveadifferentculturethansomeonefromXinJiangorGuangdong.However,eventhoughtheyhave
different cultures, they are all part of a greater culture, ie: the Chinese culture. Local cultures can thus be
consideredassubcultures,astheyparticipateintherichnessandvarietyoftheChineseculture.Indeed,many
havearguedthatTaiwaneseidentityisnotequaltoTaiwaneseindependence.
Backin2006,MaYingJeou,KMTchairmanandcurrentROCpresident,saidthatthegoaloftheKMTwasan
eventualreunificationwithChina.Aftertheuproarcausedbyhisdeclaration,hecorrectedhimselfandsupported
thestatusquo.Sincehisaccessiontopower,hefollowedthestrategyofNoreunification,noindependenceand
nowar.
However,hispolicieshavebeentowardmoreopennesswiththePRC:herestoredtheThreeLinks,openedthe
islandtomainlandtouristsandinvestorsandsince2008,TaiwanstoppedapplyingforUNmembership.
As a result from this opening, the PRC has not mentioned once the One China policy. In addition, during the
2008Sichuanearthquake,thePRCallowed4humanitarianflightstoflybackTaiwanesebusinessmanandtheir
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familiestotheisland.
ChenYunlin,thechairmanoftheARATScametovisitTaipeiin2008,thehighestlevelofficialvisitsince1949.
Whileviolentproteststookplaceandmuchcontroversiesaroseduringthevisit,mostTaiwanesebelieveitwas
economicallybeneficialforTaiwan.
Economictiesacrossthestraitaregettingstronger.Already,thePRCisthemainexportandimportpartnerof
Taiwan,with28%and13%ofthetrade.Ontheotherhand,Taiwanaccountsfor6%ofthePRCsimports.The
PRCisamuchbiggereconomicalforcethanTaiwanandcontinuestogrowrapidly.Overtheyears,thetensed
relations across the strait didnt affect much of the trade: investments on both sides are numerous and the
bilateraltradeisabout$110bn.
In 2010, the signature of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement will reduce tariff and commercial
barriers across the strait. As the PRC has been lobbying and using its influence to restrain other regional
countriestoestablishFreeTradeAgreementswiththeisland,Taiwanhasmuchtogainfromit.Infact,thereare
hintsthatthedealhasbeensetuptofavorTaiwan:about539Taiwaneseproductsand267mainlandproducts
willbefreeofbarriers,andthePRCopened11marketstoTaiwaneseinvestorswhiletheROConlyopened7.
The economic benefits are clearly in favor of Taiwan, which should get about $14bn benefits while the PRC
wouldonlyhaveabout$2.8bn.
About10%oftheTaiwaneseworkforce,or1millionpeoplearecurrentlyworkinginthePRC.Mostofthemhave
established their own businesses, numbering about 500,000 of them. On the other hand, the opening of
Taiwanesestockmarketstomainlandinvestorswasmetwithmuchgreetings.WhileinvestorsfromPRCcannot
possesmorethan1/10thofthetotalsharevalueofacompany,itnonethelessallowedmanyofthemtoinvestin
keyindustries.Forexample,ChinaMobileboughtabout12%ofTaiwansthirdlargesttelecomoperator.
Onbothsidesofthestrait,thereisthebeliefthateconomicalintegrationwillminimizetherisksforwar.Asseen
previously, during the 3rd Strait Crisis in 1995/96, real estate and stock market prices in Taiwan fell sharply.
ShouldmainlandinvestorsinvestsignificantlyinTaiwaneseassets,anymilitarythreatwouldcausethemtolose
quitealotofmoney.Thus,governmentsonbothsideswillhavemuchmoreincentivestocooperateratherthan
provokingtheotherside.
Manytaiwaneseareagainstreunificationaslongasstandardsoflivingonbothsideofstraitarenotequivalent.
Given the current path at which mainland China is growing, it might soon be in the range of what Taiwanese
believe to be equal. While the PRC cannot sustain its current development growth for ever, neither can the
ROC. And it should be remembered that already in 1895, Taiwan was the most industrialized and modernized
provinceoftheQingempire.
Economic integration is the easiest way toward reunification, since it is based on incentives and actions that
benefit all populations. As Taiwanese people will realize that the PRC has much to offer them, in terms of
opportunities and others, they will eventually have much less strong feelings against reunification. In addition,
standardsoflivingincoastalcitiesinmainlandChinaarenearingthoseofTaiwan.TodaysPRCisnotthesame
countryasitwas40yearsago.
TheexampleofHongKongandMacaucanprovidesomeexamplesonhowreunificationcanbeprocessed.Both
cities had a high level of development, quite ahead than those in mainland China. However, under the One
Country, Two Systems, political, economic and social policies were left to the local government and the
mainlandpopulationisstillheavilycontrolledwhenenteringthetwocities.Sofar,suchretrocessionshavebeen
largely successful. A similar strategy has been in the heart of the propositions put forward by the Peoples
RepublicofChinaforthereunificationwithTaiwan.
So far, the only factors impeding a forceful reunification of the island with the mainland are the potential
involvement of regional and international forces, like the US or Japan, but also the fact that the PRC has
committeditselftopeacefulpoliciesintheworld.Aswesawbefore,eventhoughTaiwanisadomesticmatter,
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theinternationalcommunityisheavilyinvolved.Anymilitaryactionswillbemetwithverystrongcondemnations,
fear and the loss of trust in the stated policies of the PRC. Thus, even though nonpeaceful means have been
formally put on the table by the PRC, a peaceful resolution of the issue will greatly benefit the PRC, both at
homeandabroad.
OnTaiwansside,therearemanyuncertainties.Sofar,theUSissupportingtheTaiwanesegovernment.During
the1995/96thirdStraitCrisis,theUS7thFleetwasonceagaindispatchedintheareaandanyfurtherescalation
was avoided. However, the rapid rise of mainland China as an economic force, an international actor and a
strong military, is changing profoundly the regional balance of power. The influence of the PRC is now felt all
overAsia,andtheneighboringcountrieshavecometoadapttothenewregionalpower.
In addition, while the US still has many years to come during which it will exert its influence in the region, the
rise of mainland China is eclipsing its previous capacities. The current trend is that within a few decades, the
PRCwillbeasuperpowerandtheUSwillhaveadiminishedrole,atleastintheAsiaPacificregion.
ThusTaiwanhastofacethepotentialwithdrawalofitsmainsupporter,armdealeranddefenseprovider.Once
theUSleavestheregion,theislandwillbeleftonitsown,facingthegiantmainlandChina.SincethePRCis
not going to change its mind and renounce to reunify Taiwan with the mainland, there is only one option left:
negotiationforreunification.
Conclusion
As we have seen, the Taiwan strait is a very complex issue, involving a lot of different factors, players and
ideas. However, while the situations was seen as unsolvable only a few years ago, recent steps taken by the
governmentsonbothsidesofthestraitareveryencouraging.ThereestablishmentoftheThreeLinksacrossthe
straitaswellastheeasingoftradetermswillcreateeconomictiesthatwilleventuallyunifyonceagainTaiwan
withmainlandChina.
There are still many uncertainties and challenges, but governments and populations on both sides want to
resolve this issue peacefully. Force is always an option on the table, however it will actually decrease the
chancesofreunificationratherthanincreasethem.
TheTaiwaneseissueisstillnotresolvednow,butweshouldbeconfidentthatitwillbeworkedoutsoonerthan
later.
References
ResolvingCrossStraitRelationsBetweenChinaandTaiwan(http://www.taiwanbasic.com/lawjrn/rescs2.htm)
Jiangs8points(http://english.cri.cn/4426/2007/01/11/167@184028.htm)
The Entity that Dare not Speak its Name: Unrecognized Taiwan as a RightBearer in the International
LegalOrder(http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1015120%20%E2%80%A2%20White%20Paper
The%20OneChina%20Principle%20and%20the%20Taiwan%20Issue%20http://www.china
%20embassy.org/eng/zt/twwt/White%20Papers/t36705.htm)

HarmoniousWorld(http://www.nids.go.jp/english/publication/joint_research/series3/pdf/32.pdf)
LegalStatusofTaiwan(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_status_of_Taiwan)
TaiwanIndependence(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_independence)
MaYingJeou(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ma_Yingjeou#Crossstrait_relations)(CrossStraitRelations)
RetrocessionDay(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retrocession_Day)

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Taiwan(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan)
RepublicofChina(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China)
FivePrinciplesofPeacefulCoexistence(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Principles_of_Peaceful_Coexistence)
CrossStraitRelations(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CrossStrait_relations)
FirstTaiwanStraitCrisis(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Taiwan_Strait_crisis)
TreatyofSanFrancisco(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_San_Francisco)
TreatyofTaipei(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Taipei)
SinoAmericanMutualDefenseTreaty(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SinoAmerican_Mutual_Defense_Treaty)
FormosaResolution(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formosa_Resolution)
SecondTaiwanStraitCrisis(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis)
StraitExchangeFoundation(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straits_Exchange_Foundation)
Association

for

Relations

Across

the

Taiwan

Straits

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_for_Relations_Across_the_Taiwan_Straits)

1992Consensus(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_consensus)
2005PanBluevisitstoMainlandChina(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_PanBlue_visits_to_mainland_China)
ThirdTaiwanStraitCrisis(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis)
AntiSecession

Law

of

the

PRC

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti

Secession_Law_of_the_People%20%27s_Republic_of_China)

May17Statement(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_17_Statement)
CrossstraitCharter(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossstrait_charter)
ThreeNoes(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Noes)
ThreeLinks(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_links)
HistoryofTaiwan(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Taiwan)
TaiwanunderJapaneserule(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_under_Japanese_rule)
Economic

Cooperation

Framework

Agreement

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Cooperation_Framework_Agreement)

Taiwaneseidentity(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwanese_identity)
CairoDeclaration(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cairo_Declaration)
228incident(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/228_incident)
TaiwanafterWorldWarII(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_after_World_War_II)
Commentsareclosed.

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2011ConnecttheDots(/)

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