Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Breakbulk Europe
21 May 2015
Teresa Lehovd
Head of Market Intelligence
Hegh Autoliners
1
/ 28 May 2015
Key Topics
Why diversify?
Current status
Project pipeline
The Scope
Saudi
Arabia
Egypt
UAE
Algeria
Qatar
Non-oil
sectors
Morocco
Kuwait
Bahrain
Oman
1
3
53 %
80 %
100m
The (MENA)
regions share of
known world oil
reserves
Expected
population growth
between 2014 and
2050
40 %
$73 000
$380 bn
Saudi Arabias
population
below 15 years
Why Diversify?
Create jobs
Ensure
sustainable
post-oil
growth
Prestige
1
5
1
6
Mining and
mineral-based
industries
Secondary
sectors
Trade and
logistics
Tourism,
hospitality and
aviation
Petrochemicals
Aluminium
Automotive
Location
Location /
Climate
Downstream
conversion
industries
Steel
Paper
Low customs
duties
Plastics and
packaging
Fertilizers
Cement
Downstream
industries
related to
metals
production
Food
Agriculture
Agro-processing
Businessfriendly
environment
Attractive
hospitality
infrastructure
Attractive global
events
Biotechnology
Rapid port
Pharmaceuticals development
Telecom
Expansion of
the middle class
Transshipment in China, India
services / FTZ and Africa
Polysilicon
1
7
Sports and
Culture
Power
Water
Catalysts
Consumer
goods
Healthcare
Education
1
8
40
Petrochemicals
105
224
Infrastructure
1,000
0
200
400
600
800
1
1000
2
1200
4
Country
Project
Status
Value
($bn)
Award Date
S. Arabia
Study
2,5
2015
S. Arabia
Study
1,7
2015
S. Arabia
Feed
1,5
2015
S. Arabia
Study
1,5
2015
S. Arabia
Study
1,5
2015
S. Arabia
Design
1,2
2015
S. Arabia
Main
contract
1,1
2014
S. Arabia
Study
1,0
2015
Project
Status
Value ($bn)
Award Date
UAE
Study
1,5
2015
UAE
Study
1,5
2015
UAE
On hold
1,0
2015
Qatar
Execution
1,0
2011
Oman
Study
1,0
2015
Oman
Study
2,4
2015
Oman
Study
1,0
2015
Bahrain
Prequalification
2,5
2016
Bahrain
Study
2,0
2015
Bahrain
Execution
1,32
2010
Egypt
Execution
1,2
2012
Algeria
Study
3,2
2015
Algeria
Study
2,0
2016
Algeria
Study
2,0
2016
Project
Status
Value ($bn)
Completion
S. Arabia
Plan
30
2020
Execution
20
2016
PetroRabigh phase 2
Execution
8,5
2016
On hold
2019
Execution
3,4
2016
Main contract
2018
Scrapped
2018
Shelved
7,4
2018
Shelved
6,4
2018
On hold
2023
Feed
3,6
2018
Execution/Delays
2019
Satorp phase 2
Kemya elastomers
Oman
Egypt
1
12
50
100
150
200
1
13
250
2
300
4
1 Trillion
400 Bn
Saudi Arabia
Egypt
UAE
Qatar
Kuwait
Algeria
Oman
Bahrain
Morocco
50
100
150
200
Regional Transformation
Rail: Booming!
Metro networks in major cities
First high-speed rail
Regional rail network
Construction
New cities
Millions of homes
Healthcare & Education
Event-driven construction
Airports
Airports in major cities
Cargo hubs
Maritime
New ports and transhipment
hubs
Re-export facilities
Regional network
1
15
UAE
Dubailand (147)
Mohammed bin Rashid City (55)
Al-Maktoum Int. Airport (32)
Jumeirah Village (9,2)
Dubai Lagoon (4,5)
Al-Furjan Development (4)
Dubai Metro (14,4)
Emirates Roads Master Plan (12)
Etihad Railway Network (11)
Kizad Terminal (10)
Expo 2020 Masterplan (9)
Abu Dhabi Metro (7)
Abu Dhabi Airport Expansion (6,8)
Mall of the World (6,8)
1
16
Egypt
Kuwait
Algeria
Oman
Bahrain
1
17
1
18
OPEC
Basket Price
116.4
USD/B
111.5
107.5
110
USD 109
Jun 2014
100
90.7
90
77.6
80
USD 79
Nov 2014
73.3
70
60
USD 63
May 2015
53.3
50
2010
2014
2015
40
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Oman
UAE
Bahrain
Qatar
Algeria
Source: MEED
1
19
May 2014
6,4
6,1
% change y-y
4,8
4,7
4,3
3,9
3,5
3,3
3,6
4,7
4,3
4,6
4,5
3,8
2,6
2,5
2,2
1,5
Algeria
Source: IHS
20 / 28 May 2015
Bahrain
* Estimate
Egypt*
Kuwait
Morocco
Oman
Qatar
Saudi
Arabia
United Arab
Emirates
21
Moderate
Risk
Qatar
UAE (excl. Abu Dhabi)
Egypt
Morocco
Saudi Arabia
High Risk
Bahrain
Oman
Abu Dhabi
Kuwait
Algeria
1
22 / 28 May 2015
Short term
Strong currency
reserves
Sovereign wealth funds
Petrodollar assests
Improved investment
portfolio
Non-oil sectors
Lower construction and
material costs
Focus on Asia
Longer term
Turn to private and
Islamic financing
Sell strategic assets
Remove government
subsidies and transfers
Introduce taxes
(income, property, VAT)
Further reduce project
spending
Deep structural and
social reforms
1
23 / 28 May 2015
Conclusions
Internal and external mega-forces put an increasing pressure
on the Region to invest in economic diversification
Low oil price is now testing the regions strategies showing
that Real diversification will require more deep-cutting
reforms
Prospects for the project cargo market remain good for now
But re-calibration or scaling back of ambition levels has
begun, and will accelerate if oil price stays low for long
Has the Region done Too little, too late?
1
24
25