National

Gunfire
Index

Published
03 2016

2015

Table of Contents

3 Foreword

4 Top 3 Findings 2015

4 Top Finding #1

5 Top Finding #2

6 Top Finding #3

7 Gunfire Summary

8 Regional Gunfire Rates

9 Gunfire Rates by Hour Across the Country

10 2014-2015 Gunfire Comparison per Square Mile

11 Regional Spotlight

12 Holiday Gunfire Spotlight

13 City Spotlight

17 Methodology and Notes

2015 National Gunfire Index Published March 2016

Foreword
2015 has been a remarkable year for reduced
gun violence in the United States. While many cities
reported an uptick in reported homicides, the results of
our gunfire index summarized on the next few pages
outline the fact that many cities and regions have experienced a significant reduction in gunfire. These cities
are demonstrating measurable declines in shooting incidents with comprehensive focused deterrents leveraging
people, process and technology. We are very proud to
be a part of these positive trends in disrupting the new
normal of gun violence.
SST continues to be a leader in helping to reduce and prevent gun violence in urban communities. Gun violence is
more frequent in communities than actual homicides. We
know from our customer work that having police respond
quickly to the exact location of a shooting is in fact building
long-term legitimacy and increasing trust with residents.
ShotSpotter combined with community policing work is
making a difference.
What kind of difference? Cities which use ShotSpotter today
see an average of a 34.7% decrease in gunfire incident
volume in the first 2 years of ShotSpotter use. The deployment of ShotSpotter is effectively reducing and preventing
gun violence in communities when ShotSpotter is used
combined with other gun violence prevention programs.

2015 National Gunfire Index Published March 2016

This 2015 National Gunfire Index Report details a comprehensive analysis and overview of the otherwise underreported and therefore unknown instances of gun violence.
Our data continues to be of value to law enforcement
agencies, city leaders, researchers and the media. We invite
you to use this report as a data source to better understand
gunfire trends in communities and see how their shooting incidents compare to other cities who are also using
ShotSpotter.
Lets work together to better inform policy makers and the
media with the art of the possible with respect to reducing
gun violence. Our vision is to continue to scale out our
deployments to more cities and larger coverage areas and
then commercially offer this data to the Federal government
who can then combine this gun violence information
with other big data sets and make it freely available to
researchers and the public. Most importantly, lets continue
to share information on gun violence prevention strategies
and work to improve those communities where gunfire
is most prevalent.
Please forward this report to your colleagues and friends
get the word out! We encourage you to comment on this
report via Twitter, @ShotSpotter.

Ralph A. Clark
President and CEO, SST, Inc.

Top 3 Findings 2015

Top Finding #1
In the 46 cities where ShotSpotter data was analyzed
for year over year trends, the overall median reduction
in gunfire was 12.8%.

Median
Gunfire
Reduction

Data from the 46 cities where ShotSpotter Flex was deployed

during both years was used in this analysis.
SM

12.8%

Only cities that had ShotSpotter Flex deployed for more than 4/5 of
each year were included. If a citys contracted coverage area expanded
in 2015, the expanded area was not included in this comparison data.
Of the cities that saw reductions, the median decline was 20.1%.
That comparison revealed 36,754 and 34,108, confirmed gunshot
incidents (respectively). This increase in incidents was primarily due
to an expansion in ShotSpotter coverage areas.
78%, or 36 cities saw reductions in their rates of gunfire1,
41%, or 19 cities saw reductions greater than 20%,
13%, or 6 cities saw reductions greater than 33%.

36

19

>20%

>33%

Rate of gunfire = number of gunfire incidents per square mile, per year.

2015 National Gunfire Index Published March 2016

Top 3 Findings

Top Finding #2
Gunfire rates have decreased significantly on
a per square mile basis in the Northeast and
West census regions.
The gunfire incident rates per square mile decreased
in every region of the country except for the Midwest.
The most significant percent decrease was seen in
the Northeast, where ShotSpotter also has the largest
coverage area.

2015 National Gunfire Index Published March 2016

Gunfire Incidents per Square Mile

Caribbean 2014
Caribbean 2015

173.8
167.4

Midwest 2014
Midwest 2015

328.9
349.9

Northeast 2014
Northeast 2015

109.0
79.5

South 2014
South 2015

196.5
191.7

West 2014
West 2015

198.9
155.2

Top 3 Findings

Top Finding #3
We reviewed and published 54,699 separate incidents
of gunfire in 2015.
These total separate incidents add up to 150 incidents of
gunfire per day or 6 incidents every hour.

150

4.09

4.09

Day

Hour

Our analysis in this Index includes 62 ShotSpotter cities for

full year data analysis. We also aggregated and compared
gunshot data from 2015 vs. 2014 from 46 cities in the U.S.

2015 National Gunfire Index Published March 2016

Gunfire Summary

The 2015 Gunfire Summary is based on gunfire data aggregated

from 62 cities across the U.S. that had ShotSpotter Flex
deployed for more than 4/5 of the year.
Incidents:
54,699/year
Shots Fired: 165,531/year
Busiest Day: December 25th: 266 incidents in total, 39 in one city.
Single busiest hour for a city:
November 11th at 11:00 PM (24 incidents of gunfire)
Busiest hour of the week:
Saturday 2:00 AM 2:59 AM (978 incidents)
Worst month for a city:
May 2015422 incidents

2015 National Gunfire Index Published March 2016

Regional Gunfire Rates

The average gunfire incident rate per square mile

varies significantly from region to region.
The highest rate of gunfire is in the Midwest with an average
of 351.9 gunfire incidents per square mile during 2015.
The lowest is in the Northeast with 73.7 gunfire incidents
per square mile.
Gunfire rates have continued to decline with the Northeast
and the West having the highest declines of gunfire incidents
year over year.

Average Incident Rate by Census Region 2015

Caribbean

140.5

Midwest

351.9

Northeast

73.7

South

197.5

West

143.5

*National Average

176.7

* National Average is defined as total number of incidents divided by total number of square miles.

2015 National Gunfire Index Published March 2016

Gunfire Rates by Hour Across the Country

Gunfire rates across the country indicate that

most gunfire activity happens in late evening,
into early morning.

Number of Incidents by Hour of Day (local time)

45% of all gunfire occurs between 9PM and 1AM.

61% occurs between 8PM and 2AM.

3000

2000
Average
1000

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2

9 10 11

45%
61%

2015 National Gunfire Index Published March 2016

2014-2015 Gunfire Comparison per Square Mile

Gunfire rates have decreased significantly

on a per square mile basis, in the Northeast
and the West census regions.
Overall, the cities in the Northeast region saw a 27.1%
decline and those in the West experienced a 22% drop in
gunfire incidents over the same time period. The median
number of gunfire incidents dropped from
144.7 gunfire incidents per square mile in 2014 to
123.2 gunfire incidents per square mile in 2015*.

Percent Change in Incidents per Square Mile

*Caribbean

-3.7%

Midwest

+6.4%

Northeast

-27.1%

South

-2.4%

West

-22.0%

The gunfire incident rates per square mile decreased in

every region of the country except for the Midwest.
The most significant percent decrease was seen in the
Northeast, where ShotSpotter also has the largest
coverage area.

* The 46 cities in our sample covered a total of 172.9 square miles.

The median coverage area was 3.04 square miles per city.

2015 National Gunfire Index Published March 2016

10

Regional Spotlight

ShotSpotter Coverage Regions

Coverage areas are not evenly distributed across the
country. To illustrate the variability in coverage area size,
we grouped cities within the sample along the four
U.S. Census Regions.
We added a single Caribbean region, for which the
Census Bureau does not have a corresponding grouping,
because the region constitutes a meaningful subset of
ShotSpotter coverage areas.
At year end, ShotSpotter captured gunshot data on
292.7 square miles in cities across America.

2015 National Gunfire Index Published March 2016

Coverage Area by Census Region (Cities)

Caribbean (5 Cities)

19.7

Midwest (11 Cities)

51.7

Northeast (26 Cities)

95.6

South (15 Cities)

71.5

West (12 Cities)

54.2

11

Holiday Gunfire Spotlight

Gunfire Incidents per Square Mile/U.S. Holiday

Gunfire Incidents During Holiday Periods

In previous years, SST analysis shows that New Years Day,
New Years Eve and Fourth of July are the days of the year
with by far the highest rate of gunfire incidents.
Gunfire during these holidays is considered Celebratory
gunfire because the gunfire is typically celebratory in nature
vs. gunfire with the intention to harm or intimidate.
This analysis excludes New Years Day, New Years Eve
and July 4th.
In 2015, Christmas day was the highest gunfire rate for a
single normal day outside of New Years Eve, New Years
Day and the July 4th holiday period. In 2014, Christmas
was among the highest gunfire rate for a single normal day
outside of New Years Eve, New Years Day and the July 4th
holiday period.

Martin Luther King Day 2014

Martin Luther King Day 2015

0.499
0.517

Valentines Day 2014

Valentines Day 2015

0.483
0.577

Presidents Day 2014

Presidents Day 2015

0.459
0.429

St. Patricks Day 2014

St. Patricks Day 2015

0.433
0.570

Easter 2014
Easter 2015

0.710
0.689

Mothers Day 2014

Mothers Day 2015

0.764
0.743

Memorial Day 2014

Memorial Day 2015

0.740
0.670

Labor Day 2014

Labor Day 2015

0.566
0.636

Veterans Day 2014

Veterans Day 2015

0.509
0.570

Thanksgiving 2014
Thanksgiving 2015

0.596
0.622

Christmas 2014
Christmas 2015

0.882
0.968

SST excluded New Years Eve, New Years Day and July 4th
from this analysis as these three holidays are considered
celebratory gunfire and not normal gunfire periods.

2015 National Gunfire Index Published March 2016

12

City Spotlight
Gunfire
Down
-38.5%

Congratulations to the 5 cities with the most

significant decline in gunfire.

New Haven, CT
We are tremendous believers in the

Huntington Station, NY: -50.2%

New Haven, CT:
-38.5%
Brentwood, NY:
-37.4%
Atlantic City, NJ:
-35.4%
San Francisco, CA:
-34.6%

ShotSpotter technology and look forward to

Overall, the cities in the Northeast region saw a 27.1%

decline and those in the West experienced a 22% drop
in gunfire incidents over the same time period.

have imagined numbers like these, and while

expanding its use across New Haven.

From 2011 to 2015, homicides are down 55%
and non-fatal shootings are down 52%. When
we first started using ShotSpotter we would never
there are many reasons for these positive trends,
ShotSpotter is an important part of the overall
approach, enabling us to apply breakthrough
technology to try and save lives and reduce
crime in New Haven.

Mayor Toni N. Harp

New Haven, CT

2015 National Gunfire Index Published March 2016

13

City Spotlight
Gunfire
Down
-35.4%

Gunfire
Down
-34.6%

Atlantic City, NJ

San Francisco, CA

With ShotSpotter technology, our officers now

In San Francisco our focus has been on reducing

respond faster to the scene and have been able

gun violence and it appears that our efforts and

to find victims and evidence quickly. ShotSpotter

community partnerships are having the desired

is also an important tool that helps with improved

effect. While there is no level of gun violence

community action and engagement, and all of

that is acceptable but we are headed in the right

this has helped us to achieve a 35.4% decrease

direction and we credit ShotSpotter with helping

in gunfire violence from 2014 to 2015 across the

us achieve this.

city. Our goal is to do everything we can to catch

the people who commit gun violence, and
ShotSpotter is helping us do that.

Chief Gregory Suhr

San Francisco, CA

Chief Henry White

Atlantic City, NJ

2015 National Gunfire Index Published March 2016

14

City Spotlight

Cities Examined
SSTs 2015 gunfire summary is based on the following 62 cities:
Amityville, NY
Atlantic City, NJ
Baton Rouge, LA
Bayamon, PR
Bell Gardens, CA
Belle Glade, FL
Bellport, NY
Boston, MA
Brentwood, NY
Brockton, MA
Cambridge, MA
Camden, NJ
Canton, OH
Charlotte, NC
Chelsea, MA
Chicago, IL
Denver, CO
Detroit, MI
East Chicago, IN
East Palo Alto, CA
Everett, MA

Northeast
Northeast
South
Caribbean
West
South
Northeast
Northeast
Northeast
Northeast
Northeast
Northeast
Midwest
South
Northeast
Midwest
West
Midwest
Midwest
West
Northeast

Fall River, MA
Glendale, AZ
Hartford, CT
Hempstead, NY
Huntington Station, NY
Jackson, MS
Kansas City, MO
Miami City, FL
Miami Gardens, FL
Milwaukee, WI
Minneapolis, MN
Montgomery, AL
New Bedford, MA
New Haven, CT
Oakland, CA
Omaha, NE
Paterson, NJ
Peoria, IL
Pittsburgh, PA
Plainfield, NJ
Revere, MA

Northeast
West
Northeast
Northeast
Northeast
South
Midwest
South
South
Midwest
Midwest
South
Northeast
Northeast
West
Midwest
Northeast
Midwest
Northeast
Northeast
Northeast

Richmond, CA
Riviera Beach, FL
Rochester, NY
Rocky Mount, NC
San Francisco, CA
San Juan, PR
San Pablo, CA
Savannah, GA
Somerville, MA
South Bend, IN
Springfield, MA
St. Croix, USVI
St. Louis, MO
St. Thomas, USVI
Stockton, CA
Trujillo Alto, PR
Wilmington, DE
Wilmington, NC
Worcester, MA
Wyandanch, NY

West
South
Northeast
South
West
Caribbean
West
South
Northeast
Midwest
Northeast
Caribbean
Midwest
Caribbean
West
Caribbean
South
South
Northeast
Northeast

At year end, ShotSpotter captured gunshot data on 292.7 square miles across America.

2015 National Gunfire Index Published March 2016

15

City Spotlight

Cities Used in Comparison of 2014 and 2015

When comparing 2014 gunfire data to 2015 gunfire data, 46 cities where ShotSpotter Flex was deployed
during both years were used in this analysis2. The 46 cities that make up the apples to apples comparison are:
Amityville, NY
Atlantic City, NJ
Baton Rouge, LA
Bayamon, PR
Bell Gardens, CA
Belle Glade, FL
Bellport, NY
Brentwood, NY
Brockton, MA
Camden, NJ
Canton, OH
Charlotte, NC
Chicago, IL
East Chicago, IN
East Palo Alto, CA
Fall River, MA

Northeast
Northeast
South
Caribbean
West
South
Northeast
Northeast
Northeast
Northeast
Midwest
South
Midwest
Midwest
West
Northeast

Hartford, CT
Hempstead, NY
Huntington Station, NY
Jackson, MS
Kansas City, MO
Miami Gardens, FL
Milwaukee, WI
Minneapolis, MN
New Bedford, MA
New Haven, CT
Oakland, CA
Omaha, NE
Paterson, NJ
Peoria, IL
Plainfield, NJ
Richmond, CA

Northeast
Northeast
Northeast
South
Midwest
South
Midwest
Midwest
Northeast
Northeast
West
Midwest
Northeast
Midwest
Northeast
West

Riviera Beach, FL
Rochester, NY
Rocky Mount, NC
San Francisco, CA
San Juan, PR
San Pablo, CA
South Bend, IN
Springfield, MA
St. Croix, USVI
St. Louis, MO
St. Thomas, USVI
Stockton, CA
Wilmington, NC
Wyandanch, NY

South
Northeast
South
West
Caribbean
West
Midwest
Northeast
Caribbean
Midwest
Caribbean
West
South
Northeast

If a city was not using ShotSpotter Flex for more than 4/5 of either 2014 or 2015, that city was excluded from this analysis.
If a citys contracted coverage area expanded in 2014, the expanded area was not included in this comparison data.
2

2015 National Gunfire Index Published March 2016

16

Appendix

Methodology and Notes

1. The data in this Index is taken only from the areas covered by Shotspotter systems. There
is no assurance that conclusions drawn from this data will be valid outside the coverage
areas.
2. The 2015 analysis in this report is based on 62 communities that had Shotspotter Flex
coverage (reviewed alerts) and were collecting data as of December 31, 2015.
3. In order to perform an apples-to-apples comparison of gunfire rates per square mile for
2014 and 2015, only those 46 communities that had Flex coverage for more than 4/5 of
the non-holiday portion of the year in both 2014 and 2015 are used in the comparison.
4. Some communities were not covered during some parts of 2014 or 2015. Therefore,
when calculating values such as gunfire incidents per square mile, care must be taken
to account for the different number of days of coverage for different communities. The
chosen solution was to calculate the number of incidents by day and impute the number
of gunfire incidents for those days for which there was no coverage, taking into account
known information about incident rates for the community, the day of the year, the day
of the week, and the year. This method is like proration, but is more accurate. Imputation
of incident data for a year is done only for communities that have coverage data for more
than 4/5 of the non-holiday portion of that year.
This method was cross-checked using cities with two full years of data, comparing actual
data to imputed values for simulated missing values. The average difference by city
between the gunfire rates using imputed values vs. using actual values was only 2.2%,
showing that imputation can be relied on to give accurate results.

6. Communities without at least 20 incidents in all of 2014 were not used when comparing
gunfire rates.
7. Incidents were counted only after formal qualification and operational use of ShotSpotter
data by the client agency began, even if gunfire or other incidents were detected
previously. Incidents were counted as gunfire if they were classified as Single Gunshot,
Multiple Gunshot, or Possible Gunfire by SST-certified review personnel. All other
incident types (fireworks, firecrackers, explosions unrelated to gunfire, transformer
explosions, thunder, lightning, helicopters, etc.) were excluded from all statistics presented
in this report. Gunfire incidents not reviewed by SST-certified review personnel are also
excluded.
ShotSpotter data does not remain static, as information and adjustments are often made
several days or weeks after initial detection (as forensic evidence is analyzed, cases are
investigated, etc.). This report takes into account the most accurate and recently-available
information.
8. Square mileage is measured on the basis of contractual coverage area. For each such
area, the geographic area is defined as a polygon surrounding each coverage area. If the
polygon coordinates are not available, the contracted area is used. In some cases, small
areas within these coverage areas are intentionally excluded when gunfire is regularly
expected in those specific locations (e.g. a legal outdoor shooting range or police practice
range). In those cases, gunfire which takes place in those locations outside of authorized
areas is still included in the tallies, but gunfire which takes place during permitted
(expected) periods is not included.

5. Gunfire incidents for a year period were counted if the local time in the time zone of their
occurrence was between 00:00:00 standard time (i.e., midnight) on January 1 and
23:59:59 on December 31st (i.e., 1 second before midnight on January 1).

9. When the Friday, Saturday and Sunday gunfire totals are compared to the rest of the
week, a day is defined as starting at 06:00:00 local time and extending to 05:59:59 the
next morning. For example, early 02:05 Sunday morning is counted as Saturday night.

Incidents during the holiday periods of New Years and 4th of July are not counted in
the statistics unless explicitly noted because of the prevalence of celebratory gunfire
during those holiday periods and the fact that it is highly inconsistent with the normal
patterns. The holiday periods are from December 30, 2013 to January 2, 2014,
December 30, 2014 to January 2, 2015, June 27 to July 9, 2014, and June 12 to
July 12, 2015.

10. Individual hours of the week and days of the week were calculated on a local time basis.

2015 National Gunfire Index Published March 2016

17

@ShotSpotter
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More Information about SST and ShotSpotter can be found at www.SST-Inc.com

or www.ShotSpotter.com. Visit our blog at www.ShotSpotter.com/blog. Or follow
SST and ShotSpotter solutions on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and LinkedIn.

ShotSpotter Flex , ShotSpotter SiteSecure , ShotSpotter , ShotSpotter Gunshot

Location System , SST SecureCampus and the ShotSpotter logo are registered
trademarks of SST, Inc., SST and ShotSpotter technology are protected by one or
more issued U.S. and foreign patents, with other domestic and foreign patents
pending, as detailed at www.ShotSpotter.com/patents.
SM

TM

TM

TM

+1.888.274.6877
NGI@ShotSpotter.com
www.ShotSpotter.com/2015NGI

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