Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.

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April 30, 2010 – Stocks are Re-testing Resistances

Treasury yields are in a stalemate between supply and risk aversion as the 10-Year tested and
could not take out it’s semiannual pivot at 3.675. If Comex Gold can close above my semiannual
resistance at $1186.5 today, look for a new high in May as currency of last resort, as the PIIGS
contagion is a real risk. Nymex Crude Oil is in a tug of war between commodity speculation and
prospect of slower GDP growth in the second half of 2010, as Initial Jobless Claims remain well
above the 350,000 Recession threshold. The Euro is trying to stabilize above 1.32 after dipping
below that level earlier in the week. The major equity averages are back near longer-term
resistances as gains of the last two days nearly offset the declines of Tuesday.
Japanese
Daily 10-Year Gold Crude Oil Euro The Dow Nasdaq
Yen
4/29/2010 3.734 1167.8 85.37 1.3227 94.07 11,167 2512
4/28/2010 3.776 1167.4 83.34 1.3207 94.10 11,045 2472
Daily Chg -0.042 0.4 2.03 0.002 -0.03 122 40
12/31/2009 3.841 1097.4 79.62 1.4324 92.95 10,428 2269
YTD Change -0.107 70.4 5.75 -0.1097 1.12 739 243
Supports 3.983 W 1146.2 W 77.05 A 1.3130 D 92.73 S 10,379 A 2415 M
4.250 S 1139.7 S 58.41 Q 1.2450 Q 87.17 M 7,490 Q 2392 S
1139.7 S 82.81 Q 2258 S
1115.2 A 80.22 A 2250 A
Pivots 3.723 D 93.16 Q 11,165 D
3.675 S
Resistances 3.607 M 1178.4 D 86.26 W 1.3401 W 94.99 D 11,228 W 2530 D
3.467 Q 1186.5 S 86.51 D 1.4081 M 95.78 W 11,235 A 2549 W
1202.5 M 97.29 A 1.5461 S 105.10 S 11,442 S 2620 W
97.50 S 1.5791 A 106.10 A 11,483 W
Five-Week 3.781 1130.9 82.24 1.3557 92.26 10,850 2409
Five- Month 3.552 1063.4 75.58 1.3984 91.81 10,028 2148
Int Sent 3.4 / 3.5 6.2 / 6.7 7.8 / 8.0 1.6 / 1.7 6.4 / 6.8 8.4 / 8.7 8.6 / 8.8
LT Sent 3.1 / 2.8 7.8 / 7.6 7.0 / 7.6 6.6 / 6.1 2.8 / 3.1 7.6 / 8.0 7.9 / 8.3

10-Year Note – Weekly and semiannual supports are 3.983 and 4.250 with daily and semiannual pivots
at 3.723 and 3.675, and monthly and quarterly resistances at 3.607 and 3.467. The daily chart shows a
MOJO divergence that favors higher yields but that changes given a close today richer that my
semiannual pivot at 3.675.
 Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold – Weekly, semiannual, annual, quarterly and annual supports are $1146.2, $1139.7,
$1115.2, $1052.8 and $938.7 with daily, semiannual and monthly resistances at $1178.4, $1186.5 and
$1202.5. Rising MOJO favors some upside but today’s close needs to be above $1186.5.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil – Annual and quarterly supports are $77.05 and $58.41 with weekly and daily
resistances at $86.26 and $86.51. Annual and semiannual resistances: $97.29 and $97.50. Flat MOJO
suggests that oil should have a problem grinding through $86.51 today.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro – Daily and quarterly supports are 1.3130 and 1.2450 with weekly, monthly and quarterly
resistances at 1.3401, 1.4081, 1.4145 and 1.4478. Declining MOJO reflects limited near term upside.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

 The Major Equity Averages
29-Apr YTD 31-Dec Cycle Cycle Date of % High % Off % Off
Market Price Gains Price Lows Highs Highs To Lows Lows Highs
The Dow 11,167.00 7.1% 10,428.00 6,469.95 14,198.10 Oct-07 -54.4% 72.6% 21.3%
S&P 500 1,206.80 8.2% 1,115.10 666.92 1,576.06 Oct-07 -57.7% 81.0% 23.4%
Nasdaq 2,512.00 10.7% 2,269.00 1,265.52 2,861.51 Oct-07 -55.8% 98.5% 12.2%
Utilities 384.65 -3.4% 398.01 288.66 555.71 Jan-08 -48.1% 33.3% 30.8%
Transports 4,763.00 16.2% 4,100.00 2,134.21 5,536.57 May-08 -61.5% 123.2% 14.0%
Russell 2000 737.74 18.0% 625.39 342.59 862.00 Jul-07 -60.3% 115.3% 14.4%
Semis (SOX) 393.97 9.5% 359.91 167.55 549.39 Jul-07 -69.5% 135.1% 28.3%

Dow – Annual and quarterly supports are 10,379 and 7,490 with a daily pivot at 11,165, and monthly,
annual, semiannual and weekly resistances at 11,228, 11,235, 11,442 and 11,483.
S&P 500 – Annual support is 1014.2 with annual, semiannual and monthly pivots at 1179.0, 1194.6 and
1199.6, and daily and weekly resistances at 1211.3, 1224.5 and 1254.3. Quarterly support is 805.4 with
semiannual resistance at 1281.1.
NASDAQ – Monthly and semiannual supports are 2415 and 2392 with daily and weekly resistances at
2530, 2549 and 2620. Semiannual, annual and quarterly supports are 2258, 2250 and 1833 with
annual support at 1659.
Dow Utilities – My monthly pivot is 384.78 with daily, monthly and weekly resistances at 389.71,
394.36 and 396.52. Annual and quarterly supports are 315.38 and 307.70 with annual and semiannual
resistances are 456.73, 471.95 and 492.05.
Dow Transports – Semiannual, monthly and annual supports are 4488, 4397 and 4324 with daily,
weekly and daily resistances at 4805, 4817 and 4832. Quarterly supports are 3447 and 3142 with
annual and semiannual resistances at 4955 and 5218.
Russell 2000 – Semiannual and monthly supports are 673.50 and 672.65 with semiannual and annual
pivots at 717.69 and 723.54, and daily, annual and weekly resistances at 751.26, 748.99 and 767.19.
Quarterly support is 509.08.
The SOX – Monthly and semiannual supports are 361.9 and 358.89 with daily and weekly resistances
at 399.37 and 408.42. Quarterly, semiannual and annual supports are 278.30, 271.90, 259.45 and
241.05.
 Dow Tracks – Daily Chart
Daily Dow: There’s an up trend resistance line that connects highs going back to November 2009. We
now have declining MOJO with the 21-day simple moving average at 11,045. A close today below
11,045 shifts the daily chart to negative and indicates risk to the 50-day and 200-day simple moving
averages at 10,783 and 10,132.

Weekly Dow: The Dow ended last week above its 200-week simple moving average at 11,134 with the
61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the October 2007 to March 2009 low at 11,246. This level was
tested on Monday with a new high for the year at 11,258. MOJO has become even more
overbought. The weekly chart remains positive but overbought on a close this week above its 5-
week modified moving average at 10,886. My annual pivot is 11,235 with semiannual and weekly
resistances at 11,442 and 11,483. I still predict Dow 8,500 before Dow 11,500.

Monthly Dow: Back in March 2009 the Dow held the up trend that goes back to the low following “The
Crash of 1987”. The Dow also held its 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the rally from the 1987 low and
the October 2007 high. ValuEngine showed all eleven sectors as 32% to 45% undervalued. These
were the reasons I predicted a 40% to 50% rally for stocks. Today sectors are overvalued by 2% to
23.5%. The 120-month simple moving average is 10,462.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.

Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
www.ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I
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