IPCC WG I

IPCC "" IPCC

.

(Technical Summary)

(Coordinating Lead Authors):

Susan Solomon (USA), Dahe Qin (China), Martin Manning (USA, New Zealand)

(Lead Authors):
Richard B. Alley (USA), Terje Berntsen (Norway), Nathaniel L. Bindoff (Australia), Zhenlin Chen (China), Amnat
Chidthaisong (Thailand), Jonathan M. Gregory (UK), Gabriele C. Hegerl (USA, Germany), Martin Heimann
(Germany, Switzerland), Bruce Hewitson (South Africa), Brian J. Hoskins (UK), Fortunat Joos (Switzerland), Jean
Jouzel (France), Vladimir Kattsov (Russia), Ulrike Lohmann (Switzerland), Taroh Matsuno (Japan), Mario Molina
(USA, Mexico), Neville Nicholls (Australia), Jonathan Overpeck (USA), Graciela Raga (Mexico, Argentina),
Venkatachalam Ramaswamy (USA), Jiawen Ren (China), Matilde Rusticucci (Argentina), Richard Somerville
(USA), Thomas F. Stocker (Switzerland), Ronald J. Stouffer (USA), Penny Whetton (Australia), Richard A. Wood
(UK), David Wratt (New Zealand)

(Contributing Authors):
J. Arblaster (USA, Australia), G. Brasseur (USA, Germany), J.H. Christensen (Denmark), K.L. Denman (Canada),
D.W. Fahey (USA), P. Forster (UK), J. Haywood (UK), E. Jansen (Norway), P.D. Jones (UK), R. Knutti
(Switzerland), H. Le Treut (France), P. Lemke (Germany), G. Meehl (USA), D. Randall (USA), D.A. Stone (UK,
Canada), K.E. Trenberth (USA), J. Willebrand (Germany), F. Zwiers (Canada)

(Review Editors):
Kansri Boonpragob (Thailand), Filippo Giorgi (Italy), Bubu Pateh Jallow (The Gambia)

.
Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, R.B. Alley, T. Berntsen, N.L. Bindoff, Z. Chen, A. Chidthaisong, J.M. Gregory,
G.C. Hegerl, M. Heimann, B. Hewitson, B.J. Hoskins, F. Joos, J. Jouzel, V. Kattsov, U. Lohmann, T. Matsuno,
M. Molina, N. Nicholls, J.Overpeck, G. Raga, V. Ramaswamy, J. Ren, M. Rusticucci, R. Somerville, T.F. Stocker,
P. Whetton, R.A. Wood and D. Wratt, 2007: Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science

Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller
(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

19

 (Technical Summary)

TS.1

21

TS.2

21

Box TS.1: 1

23

TS.2.2

28

TS.2.3 ,

TS.5.1

(Committed Climate Change)

64
65

66

TS.5.2 21

67

TS.5.3

71

Box TS.10:
30

TS.2.4

Box TS.8:

64

Box TS.9:
22

TS.2.1

TS.5

72

TS.5.4 74
TS.5.5

30

76

TS.2.5 ,

TS.2.6

TS.3
TS.3.1 :
Box TS.2: ()
TS.3.2 :
Box TS.3:

31
35

35
35
39
41
43

TS.3.3 :

46

TS.3.4

50

Box TS.4:

50

Box TS.5:

52

TS.3.5
Box TS.6: (Orbital Forcing)

TS.4
Box TS.7: -

52
55

56
57

TS.4.1 :
, ,
TS.4.2

58
60

TS.4.3 , ,

20

62

TS.4.4

62

TS.4.5

62

TS.6

78

TS.6.1

78

TS.6.2

79

TS.6.3

82

TS.6.4

83

 (Technical Summary)

TS.1

4
, ,

IPCC 3 (TAR) 6

,
,

,
. IPCC

4 WG I

{}

.


.

TS.2

. , ,

, , -

, ,

2006

IPCC WG I
(Summary for Policymakers)

65
.

. (Technical Summary)

(energy budget)

,
( )

2 ,

3 (, , )

.
(radiative forcing) .1)
,

1) (radiative forcing) - -
, . ,
. 1750 ,
2
2
1 m (W/m ). , .
.

21

 (Technical Summary)

Box TS.1: 1
IPCC .
1.6 . 3
4
.2) Box 1(WG I) .
(value uncertainties)'
(structural uncertainties)'. . ,
.
.
. .
(confidence) .
, .
(chaotic) . .
. (random
error) (systematic error) .
(bias)
. ,
. .
4 .
( , 6 ),
( , )
. (confidence) (likelihood)
.
IPCC .

9/10
8/10
5/10
2/10
1/10

(chance)

.
2 (level of
scientific understanding) . 3 ,
. 2.9.2 2.11
.

.

(Virtually certain)
(Extremely likely)
(Very likely)
(Likely)
(More likely than not)
(About as likely as not)
(Unlikely)
(Very unlikely)
(Extremely unlikely)
(Exceptionally unlikely)

/
> 99%
> 95%
> 90%
> 66%
> 50%
33~66%
< 33%
< 10%
< 5%
< 1%

(extremely likely), (extremely unlikely), (More

likely than not) IPCC
.
90% .
5% 5% .
.
'[]' .

22

 (Technical Summary)

. (+)
,

.
CO2, (CH4), (N2O)

(-) . 2.2

(long-lived

greenhouse

gas;

LLGHG)

(4.5 5.4 )

, ,

(net removal) (time

scale) .

TS.2.1

.
250
.

.

,
CFCs
.

.
8
(108 ) 4 (104
)
.

.

(precursor species)
. ,
. (CO2)
,

.
(: )

TS.2.1.1 ,
CO2 CH4
65
.


( TS.1 TS.2 ). {2.3, 6.3~6.5, FAQ 7.1}
CO2, CH4, N2O

1750 1
( TS.2
). 40
2

+1 W/m

2 6 .

. {2.3, 6.4}

2) IPCC .

23

 (Technical Summary)

( x 1,000 )

TS.1. (D) CO2, CH4, N2O .

(Proxy) , . 650,000
, . { 6.3 }

TS.2. () ( ) 2
CO2(a), CH4(b), N2O(c) , (d). 65
. ( d )
. (age) Law Dorne 20
Dome C 200. CO2, CH4, N2O Dorne C
. d Box 1600
Law Dome CO2 10 ppm . { 6.4}

24

 (Technical Summary)

CO2 280 ppm

. {7.3}

2005 379 ppm .

CO2

8000 CO2 20 ppm

( TS.3 ).

. ~1

CO2 3) 1990 6.40.4

10 ppm

GtC/yr 2000~2005 7.20.3 GtC/yr

. 1750 CO2

. CO2

100 ppm . CO2 10

1990 0.5~2.7 GtC/yr, 1.6

(1995~2005 : 1.9 ppm/yr)

Gt/yr4). TS.1 CO2

. {2.3, 6.4, 7.3, FAQ 7.1}

(1960~2005 : 1.4 ppm/yr) . {2.3, 6.4,

6.5}

1980 , CO2
( TS.1

CO2
-2

) 50%

( TS.1 CO2

).

. 1995 2005 10

CO2 .

CO2 CO2 20%

. {2.3, 6.4, 6.5}

+1.660.17 W m

CO2

1980 1990

CO2

1 GtC/yr .

CO2. 1750 CO2

CO2 (pCO2)

2/3 1/3

CO2 .

. CO2

, . {5.4, 7.3}

45% 30%

. CO2 30

, , , , ,

30% .

20%

TS.1. (global carbon budget). CO2 (CtC/yr),

(, CO2 (CO2 sink)) . 2004~2005 CO2 .

- 65% , 1
(7.3 ). NA .

1980

1990

2000~2005

CO2

3.3 0.1

3.2 0.1

4.1 0.1

5.4 0.3

6.4 0.4

7.2 0.3

-1.8 0.8

-2.2 0.4

-2.2 0.5

-0.3 0.9

-1.0 0.6

-0.9 0.6

1.4
(0.4~2.3)

1.6
(0.5~2.7)

NA

-1.7
(-3.4~-0.2)

-2.6
(-4.3~-0.9)

NA

3) CO2 , , . 1 GtC 3.67 GtCO2

.
4) 7.3 , 65%
.

25

 (Technical Summary)

CO2

. {7.3}

CO2

CO2

. CO2 (

) .

(0)

. ( )

{7.3}

CO2

.
TS.5.4 . {7.3}
2005 1774 ppb,
.
1 580 ppb 730 ppb
2 1000 ppb
8 .
1970 1980
1%/yr , 1990
, 1999~2005 6
0 .
.

, (OH)

TS.3. CO2

( ) 5 ( ).
5 1972, 1982, 1987, 1997 ENSO
(perturbations) .
5 , 0.15
ppm . CO2
CO2
. { 7.4}

. 3
( 14CO)

. 1993

CO2 ()
CO2

. (2.3, 7.4, FAQ

7.1}

( TS.3

+0.48 0.05 W/m2 .

).

CO2

. CO2

. {2.3}

CO2

. -(El Nio-Southern Oscillation:

ENSO) , , ,

26

 (Technical Summary)

. 3

. , ,

(firn core)

, , ,

. CFCs HCFCs

, 65

( TS.1), 1750

(in situ) . {2.3}

2005

+0.32 0.03 W m-2

{2.3, 6.4, 7.4}

, CFC-12 3

15

12%

. 1996 2001

. {2.3}

(hydrofluo-

rocarbons: HFCs), (perfluorocarbons: PFCs),

(SF6) .

2005 +0.017 W m

. {2.3}

-2

, ,

. {7.4}

2005 N2O 319 ppb,

18% . N2O

, (,

1 0.8 ppb .

), .

N2O

11,500 10 ppb .

{2.3, 6.4, 6.5}

. (in-situ meas-

N2O +0.16
-2

urements)

0.02 W m ,

. N2O

, 20

40%

. {7.4}

. {2.3, 7.4}

+0.35[+0.25~+0.65]
-2

W m , .

TS.2.1.3 (halocarbon), ,

3
. ,

CFCs HCFCs(hydrochlorofluorocarbons)

, CFC-11 CFC-113

27

 (Technical Summary)

. {2.3, 7.4}

. {2.3}

TS.2.2

. -
, (NOx)
(peroxyacetylnitrate)
,
. 1988


. 2003
. {Box
7.4}

. 3
-0.050.10 W m-2
, . 1980
1990
.
1980 4%
,
. ,
.
{2.3}



.
.


1% .

. {2.5}
,

+0.070.05 W m-2 .
.
.

, 3
. 3
.
.

-2

-0.50.4 W m ,
(medium-low) .
,
.
,
. ,
, ,

. , ,
( TS.4 )
.

, 3
.
,
-2

-0.40.2 W m ,
-0.050.05 W m-2, +0.20.15 W m-2,
+0.030.12 W m-2, -0.10.1 W
-2

-2

m , -0.10.2 W m .

2
1980~2000

. {2.4, 6.6}
,
3
.
0
.
.

.

28

 (Technical Summary)

. {2.4}
Water cloud

(indirect cloud albedo

effect) (3 1

. 3

(first indirect effect) ).

, ,

-2

-0.7 [-0.3~-1.8] W m

. 3 ,

. 3

{2.4, 7.5, 9.2}

(cloud

lifetime effect), (semi-direct effect),

2001 1 ~ 3

2001 8 ~ 10

TS.4. () 2001 1~3 ( +

). () 2001 8~10 .
. ( 2.4.2 ). { 2.11}

29

 (Technical Summary)

- (aerosol-icecloud interaction)

) , .

. {2.4, 7.5}

{2.5, 7.2, 9.3, Box 11.4}

TS.2.3 ,

. {2.5}

-2

+0.01 [+0.003 ~+0.03] W m

, .

TS.2.4

28

0.08%

11 .

. {2.6}

. (overlapping)

-2

0.20.2 W m

. 3

. - .

-2

+0.10.1 W m

. 3

) (

). {2.7}

1750

+0.12 [+0.06~+0.3] W/m

3 ,

(mapping) ,

(parameter) ,

1610 ( : Maunder Minimum)

(Proxy)

(solar magnetic flux)

. {2.5}

(, , ) , , ,

. {2.7, 6.6}

30

 (Technical Summary)

. 3 ,

TS.5

. ,

. +0.6~+2.4 W m-2

1991 1994

+2.630.26 W m-2,

, ,

. {2.7}

. (:

, ,

1991

(:

. 1991

) . {2.7, 2.9}

(Global Warming Potential; GWP)

. {2.7, 6.4, 6.6, 9.2}

( TS.2 ).
(: 100)

TS.2.5 ,

3 ,
1750
-2

+1.6 [+0.6~+2.4] W m

,
.

. {2.10}

(+)

31

 (Technical Summary)

. -

(RF)
RF (W m-2)

RF

(W m-2)

90%

(W m-2)
TS.5. (a) 2005 (RF) 90% . RF
, , (LOSU) 2.9
. , N2O, () . .
. 2.9
. .
.
. (b) (a)
. . (-)
. {2.9.1, 2.9.2; 2.20}

32

 (Technical Summary)

(North Atlantic Oscillation; NAO)

(thermal

(3.1 Box TS.2 ).

inertia) . {2.8, 9.2}

. {2.8, 7.5, 9.2}

(Northern Annular Mode; NAM)

TS.2. CO2 , ( ) (GWP) { 2.14}

CO2
CH4
N2O

()

(Wm-2ppb-1)
b

-5

SAR
20
100
500
(100)
1
1
1
1
21
72
25
7.6
310
289
298
153

12c
114

1.4x10
3.7x10-4
3.03x10-3

45
100
640
85
300
1,700
65
16
20
26
0.7
5
12
1.3
5.8
9.3
17.9
1.9
5.8

0.25
0.32
0.25
0.3
0.31
0.18
0.32
0.3
0.33
0.13
0.01
0.06
0.2
0.14
0.22
0.14
0.2
0.2
0.32

3,800
8,100

270
4.9
29
14
52
1.4
34.2
240
7.6
8.6
15.9

0.19
0.11
0.23
0.16
0.13
0.09
0.26
0.28
0.28
0.21
0.4

11,700
650
2,800
1,300
3,800
140
2,900
6,300

3,200
740
50,000
10,000

0.52
0.21
0.10
0.26

23,900

CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-13
CFC-113
CFC-114
CFC-115
Halon-1301
Halon-1211
Halon-2402

HCFC-22
HCFC-123
HCFC-124
HCFC-141b
HCFC-142b
HCFC-225ca
HCFC-225cb

CCl3F
CCl2F2
CClF3
CCl2FCClF2
CClF2CClF2
CClF2CF3
CBrF3
CBrClF2
CBrF2CBrF2
CCl4
CH3Br
CH3CCl3
CHClF2
CHCl2CF3
CHClFCF3
CH3CCl2F
CH3CClF2
CHCl2CF2CF3
CHClFCF2CClF2

4,800

5,400

1,400

1,500
90
470
1,800

6,730
11,000
10,800
6,540
8,040
5,310
8,480
4,750
3,680
2,700
17
506
5,160
273
2,070
2,250
5,490
429
2,030

4,750
10,900
14,400
6,130
10,000
7,370
7,140
1,890
1,640
1,400
5
146
1,810
77
609
725
2,310
122
595

1,620
5,200
16,400
2,700
8,730
9,990
2,760
575
503
435
1
45
549
24
185
220
705
37
181

12,000
2,330
6,350
3,830
5,890
437
5,310
8,100
3,380
2,520
4,140

14,800
675
3,500
1,430
4,470
124
3,220
9,810
1030
794
1,640

12,200
205
1,100
435
1,590
38
1,040
7,660
314
241
500

16,300
12,300
5,210
8,630

22,800
17,200
7,390
12,200

32,600
20,700
11,200
18,200

(HFC)
HFC-23
HFC-32
HFC-125
HFC-134a
HFC-143a
HFC-152a
HFC-227ea
HFC-236fa
HFC-245fa
HFC-365mfc
HFC-43-10mee

CHF3
CH2F2
CHF2CF3
CH2FCF3
CH3CF3
CH3CHF2
CF3CHFCF3
CF3CH2CF3
CHF2CH2CF3
CH3CF2CH2CF3
CF3CHFCHFCF2CF3

1,300

(PFC)

PFC-14
PFC-116

SF6
NF3
CF4
C2F6

6,500
9,200

33

 (Technical Summary)

TS.2. ()

()

(Wm-2ppb-1)

SAR
(100)

20

100

500

PFC-218

C3F8

2,600

0.26

7,000

6,310

8,830

12,500

PFC-318

c-C4F8

3,200

0.32

8,700

7,310

10,300

14,700

7,000

6,330

8,860

12,500

6,510

9,160

13,300

PFC-3-1-10

C4F10

2,600

0.33

PFC-4-1-12

C5F12

4,100

0.41

PFC-5-1-14

C6F14

3,200

0.49

6,600

9,300

13,300

PFC-9-1-18

C10F18

>1,000d

0.56

>5,500

>7,500

>9,500

SF5CF3

800

0.57

13,200

17,700

21,200

136

0.44

13,800

14,900

8,490

7,400

(Fluorinated ethers)
HFE-125

CHF2OCF3

HFE-134

CHF2OCHF2

26

0.45

12,200

6,320

1,960

HFE-143a

CH3OCF3

4.3

0.27

2,630

756

230

HCFE-235da2

CHF2OCHClCF3

2.6

0.38

1,230

350

106

HFE-245cb2

CH3OCF2CHF2

5.1

0.32

2,440

708

215

HFE-245fa2

CHF2OCH2CF3

4.9

0.31

2,280

659

200

HFE-254cb2

CH3OCF2CHF2

2.6

0.28

1,260

359

109

HFE-347mcc3

CH3OCF2CF2CF3

5.2

0.34

1,980

575

175

HFE-347pcf2

CHF2CF2OCH2CF3

7.1

0.25

1,900

580

175

0.33

0.93

386

110

33

HFE-356pcc3

CH3OCF2CF2CHF2

HFE-449sl
(HFE-7100)

C4F9OCH3

3.8

0.31

1,040

297

90

HFE-569sf2
(HFE-7200)

C4F9OC2H5

0.77

0.3

207

59

18

HFE-43-10pccc124
(H-Galden 1040x)

CHF2OCF2OC2F4OCHF2

6.3

1.37

6,320

1,870

569

HFE-236ca12
(HG-10)

CHF2OCF2OCHF2

12.1

0.66

8,000

2,800

860

HFE-338pcc13
(HG-01)

CHF2OCF2CF2OCHF2

6.2

0.87

5,100

1,500

460

800

0.65

7,620

10,300

12,400

0.015

0.02

<<1

(Perfluoropolyethers)
PFPMIE

CF3OCF(CF3)CF2OCF2OCF3

CH3OCH3

chloride

0.38

0.03

31

8.7

2.7

chloride

1.0

0.01

45

13

UNFCCC IPCC 2 (IPCC Second Assessment Report) (1995)

a
CO2 10 Bern Carbon cycle (Bern2.5CC: Joos . 2001)
CO2

378 ppm . CO2

, t < 1,000 , a0 = 0.217, a1 = 0.259, a2 = 0.338, a3 = 0.186, 1 = 172.9, 2 = 18.51,

3 = 1.186.
CO2 TAR IPCC (1980) , 378 ppm, +1
ppm (2.10.2 ).
CH4 TAR 12 (7.4 ). CH4
(2.10 ).
1000 .

34

 (Technical Summary)

, , -

(proxy) .

TS.3.1 :

.

. {2.9}

4 , / ,
, , ,
. 3 ,

TS.2.6

, ,
, , , ,

. (extreme

climate) ,

4 , , ,

( )

. {3.2~3.4, 3.8}

3 , ,

. (

(surface forcing)')

, ,

(atmospheric teleconnections)

. (climate anomaly)

- ,

. {2.9, 7.2, 7.5, 9.5}

.
, , (preferred

TS.3

blocking anticyclone),

4 , ,

TS.3.1.1

,
, ,
.

1850 .

.

. {3.53.7}

2005 1998 1850

.

1998

1997~1998
2005 .
12(1995~2006) 11 - 1996 -
1850 . {3.2}

. , ( )
35

 (Technical Summary)

1950

. 3

. 100 (1906~2005) 0.740.18

, , ,

3 (1901~2000) 100

( )

0.60.2 . 1850~1899

2001~2005

. MSU 2

0.760.19. 50

(0.130.03) 100

. MSU

. 3

0.12 ~ 0.19/10

1979

, (SST)

0.16 ~ 0.18/10.

( TS.6 ) {3.2}

( 10

. {3.4}

0.006 , 0).

, 1979 0.3

~ 0.6/10 ( TS.7 ).

(1958 )

. ,

. 1979

, (Diurnal Temperature Range: DTR)

10 .

. {3.2}

. 3

1950~1993 0.1/10

. ,

. {3.4}

1979 2004 ,
.
. {3.2}

TS.3.1.2 ,

, 1958~2005

1979~2005

, 20

(10 0.27

. 3

vs 0.13). {3.2}

( TS.7).

30

. (12~2)

(3~5) . 100

. MSU (Microwave Sounding

Unit) AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit)

. .

1979

1925 1945 .

36

 (Technical Summary)

. {3.2}

(10)

1961
-1990

()

()

(/10)

10 5-95%
TS.6. () 1979~2005 () (, ) .
. () ( ). 1961~1990
(), (). 25(), 50(), 100(), 150()
. () 10 ( 3.A ) 90% . 1850~1899
2001~2005 0.760.19. {FAQ 3.1, 1}

, ,

, ,

1970

. 1979

1990

1990

. {3.2, 3.5}

37

 (Technical Summary)

. {3.8}

20 .

2003

NAO(Box TS.2

) .

. (6~8)

1780 (

(Annular Modes)', NAM(Northern

1807 1.4 ).

Annular Modes) SAM(Southern Annular Modes)

2003

NAO NAM

. {3.8, 3.9}

. , 1960
SAM
,

. -
.
ENSO ENSO .
1976~1977 10 (Pacific
Decadal Oscillation; PDO)

ENSO ,

. , ENSO -
(Pacific-North America)

.

. 20

(1900~1924; 1947~1976)
(1925~1946; 1977~2003). {3.2, 3.5, 3.6}

.
,
, (
10%) ,
( 10%)
(Box TS.5).
(Cold night) ,
( 76%) 1951~2003

38

TS.7. (d), (c), ~ (b),

(a) 1979~1997 .
7 .
. { 3.17}

 (Technical Summary)

Box TS.2: ()
,
(index)
.
.

NAO NAM

- (ENSO):
, 2~ 7 . (Tahiti)
(Darwin)
SST . ENSO
(teleconnection) .

(North Atlantic Oscillation; NAO):

(Azores) ,
.
, ,
(Box TS.2, 1 )

,


.

(Northern Annular Mode; NAM):

.
.
(Southern Annular Mode; SAM):

. NAM SAM
.

Box. TS.2. 1. NAO NAM .

.
,
.

-(Pacific-North American; PNA) :

.
10 (Pacific Decadal Oscillation; PDO): SST ,
(North Pacific Index; NPI) .
.
. 20
. (TS.4, Box TS.7
), . {3.6, 8.4}

, , ,

. {3.8}

. {3.4}
.
,
.

TS.3.1.3 : , , ,

20

( TS.8).

TS.8).

1976

, 3 .

{3.4}

1988 2004 10 1.2

ENSO . DTR

0.3%(95% ) .

( )

SST ,

. 1980 1990

39

 (Technical Summary)

( ENSO

. {3.4}

( )

(global dimming)'
1990 .

. {3.4}
1990 2005

1970 1990

( TS.9).

(urban bias) .

, ,

1990 .

. , , ,
.

, .
.5) {3.3}

a) , : 1988-2004

.
,
1950 (95 )
. (50 1)

( TS.10
). {3.8}
1970
(%)

%/10

1.2%/10

SST .

.
1970

.

T2~T12()

17/10

.

1970

.
SST

TS.8. (a) ( ) 1988~2004

, (b)
, (c) (80N ~ 80S)
. 1982~2004 ()
. (/10) .
{3.4, 3.20 3.21}

( TS.11 ).
ENSO 10 .

. 1995
2005 9 (1981~2000 )
. {3.8}

5) TAR (chapter) 11 .

40

 (Technical Summary)

1970

1901~2005

,
.
.6)

, .

TS.3.2 :
10%

. 7%
%/100
1979~2005

. 49%
.
. 90%


.
. (snow cover)
,
.
. {4.1}

%/10

75% .
, (mountain snowpack),
,
.

(mm)

. 3
,
, , ,
,
,

TS.9. () 1901~2005(%/100) 1979~2005(%/10)

.
. % 1961~1990
. () 1961~1990
1990 ~ 2005 .
10 ( 3.A
). {3.3, 3.12 3.13}

.

.

1961
1993
. {4.1}

6) (Palmer Drought Severity Index; PDSI) .

PDSI , , , .

41

 (Technical Summary)

1951~2003 (%/10)

TS.10. () 1951~2003 (, 95 ) (%/10).

. () 1961~1990 (%).
% (22.5%) % . 10 ( 3.A ). { 3.39}

1961~
1990

)
TS.11. (10N ~ 20N) SST 1961~1990 (). { 3.33}

(proxies)

. 1966 2005

40

11 12

1980 5%

40~60N

( TS.12). ,

. {4.2}

42

 (Technical Summary)

Box TS.3:
(ice sheet) .
. .
.

. , ,
.
. {4.6}
(ice stream)( ) ( )
.
. {4.6}
. ,
.
. (ocean cavity) .
, 1 10 m/yr .
. {4.6}
, ,
. 7 m 57 m .
. 1
.
, . ,
1 .
, ,
. {4.6, 6.4}
TAR , (accumulation) (ablation)
.
. . {8.2}

(mountain snow water equivalent)

3 .

, , ,

(snow pack)

0.04 m/yr 0.02 m/yr

. {4.7}

20

7% , 15%

. 20

(mountain snow) 1950

0.3 m . 1956 1990

75% .

0.2 m . {4.7}

150

, 100

( )

5.81.9 , 100

6.51.4 .

. {4.2}

10

. {4.3}

, , ,

1978 2.70.6% ( TS.13

).

. 1980

43

 (Technical Summary)

7.42.4%/10.

20

1970

) 1961~2003 (Sea

Level

1991~2003 0.770.22 mm/yr . 20

1970

).

. {4.5}

Equivalent:

SLE)

0.500.18

mm/yr,

. {4.4}

(1979~2005)

3~4

10
(km2)

(1979~2005)

3~4
(1988~2004) ~ (1967~1987)

(1979~2005)

TS.12. () 3~4 .
(snow cover index)(1972 )
(1972 ) . 10
( 3.A ), 5~95%
. () (1967~1987) (1988~2004)
3~4 .
. CRU(Climatic
Research Unit) CRUTEM2v 1967~2004
3~4 0 5 . 0
5
. { 4.2, 4.3}

44

TS.13. 1979~2005 (a) , (b)

, (c) .
, 10 ( 3.A
), . (a) -60 20 103
km2/yr -7.4%/10 . (b)
33 7.4 103 km2/yr ( -2.7%/10), 95%
. (c) 5.6 9.2 103 km2/yr
.
{ 4.8 4.9}

 (Technical Summary)

. 10

, ,

, ,

. (

. ,

km km )

( TS. 14 ).

1993 2003 -50~-100 Gt/yr(

+0.14~+0.28 mm/yr )

, 2005

2002 Larsen B Ice Shelf

. 1961~2003

25 Gt/yr 60

(Larsen B )

Gt/yr(-0.07 ~+0.17 mm/ yr SLE).

{4.6}

1961~2003 100 Gt/yr 200

10

Gt/yr(-0.27~+0.56 mm/yr SLE), 1993~2003

+50~-200 Gt/yr(-0.14~+0.55 mm/yr SLE)

1993 2003

TS.14. (; 1989~2005) (; 1992~2005) . ,

. /
. J, K, H, SE Jakobshavn(J),
Kangerdlugssuaq(K), Helheim(H), (SE), vs . K H
Gt/yr. . 30 cm
30 cm . { 4.17 4.19 }

45

 (Technical Summary)

, , ,

. {4.6, 4.8}

TS.3.3 :
.

, ,

. 1,000

( TS.15 ).

.
~1
. SST
.


. CO2

TS.15. 1961~2003 1993~2003

. 1961~2003 ,
1993~2003 .
(+) , ,
,
,
. 90% .
(heat gain) .

. { 5.4}

. {5.1, 7.3}

.

. (:
, , , )
,
.

(Box TS.4 ). {5.5}
,
- (signal-to-noise ratio)

. 3 ,
,
, ,
(water mass) ,
. {5.5}

TS.3.3.1
1955
80%
. 790
( TS. 16).

, .

, 10
.
( ) 10
. 1961~2003 0~3,000
2

m 14.1x10 J 0.2
W/m2( ) .
1993~2003 0~700 m
2

0.50.18 W/m .
1961~2003 1993~2003
2004 2005 2003
. {5.1~5.3}

46

 (Technical Summary)

TS.3.3.2
(0~700

M)

1750
pH 0.1 .7)
CO2 CO2 .

CO2 CO2

pH (,

22

). pH

(10 J)

.
20 pH
10 0.02 pH
TS.16. 0~700 m (1022 J) . 3

. pH

.
1961~1990 ,
1993~2003 .
90% .
90% . {
5.1}

,
(aragonite,
) .
pH CO2
CO2

700 m

. {5.4, 7.3}

. 45N

( 100~1000 m)

1975~1995 .

(deep overturning circulation cell)

, , (Atlantic

. {5.4}

Ocean Basin) .

( TS.17

),

( /)

. ,

10 ,

(freshening) ,

. , ,

, , ,

50 .

ENSO , PDO

500 m

. {5.2, 5.3}

. ,

10

, ,

. {5.3}

. {5.2}

7) (acidity) pH . pH = -log(H ). pH 1 H
10 .

47

 (Technical Summary)

. 1961~2003

TS.3.3.3
1961~2003 ,
(Tide gauge)
1.80.5 mm/yr ( TS. 18 ).

5~95% .

1993~2003 10

. 1993~2003
1950
. {5.5, 9.5}
, 19

(1955~1998)

~20
.
1870
1870~2000

(m)

2,000
0.0~0.2 mm/yr .
(proxy)
, AD 1~1900
0.25 m .
19

~20 . {5.5}

TS.17. ( )

(1955~1998). 0.01/10.
0.05/10, (0) .
0.005/10 , -0.005/10
. { 5.5}

0.420.12 mm/yr 10

(mm)

0.70.5 mm/yr ( TS.3 ).

40
1.10.5 mm/yr ,
(TAR
). 1961~2003

. {4.8, 5.5}
TOPEX/Poseidon 1993~2003
3.10.7
mm/yr.

TS.18. . 1870
, 1950 ,
1992 1961~1990
. 90%
. { 5.13}

(1.60.5

mm/yr) (1.20.4

1993

mm/yr) 2.80.7 mm/yr

( )

. 1992

48

 (Technical Summary)

TS.3. . 9.5 10.A . 1993~2003

40 . { 5.3 9.2 }

(mm/yr)
1961 ~ 2003

1993 ~ 2003

0.42 0.12

0.5 0.2

1.6 0.5

.5 0.7

0.50 0.18

0.5 0.2

0.77 0.22

0.7 0.3

0.05 0.12a

0.21 0.07a

0.14 0.41a

0.21 0.35a

1.1 0.5

1.2 0.5

2.8 0.7

1.8 0.5
()

3.1 0.7
()

( - )

0.7 0.7

0.3 1.0

2.6 0.8

a
(9.5 )

( TS.19 ). 10
,

Kwajalein Atoll

. ,
ENSO NAO

- . 1992

(mm)

50
10

(1993~2003)

. {5.5}
1975
.

20
.
.

.

ENSO, NAO
. {5.5}

TS.19. () Kwajalein(844N, 16744E) 1950~2000

(mm). (
), ,
. 1 6 ,
. () TOPEX/Poseidon
1993~2003
(mm/yr) . { 5.15 5.18}

49

 (Technical Summary)

Box TS.4:
( ), (),
. .
. 20
. 1990 .
, .
, , , .
NAO
.
, .
, 100
. .
.
. , , .
100 m .
. 100 .
.
.
. ,
.
.
.
,
. , (storm surge)'
.
. {5.5}

TS.3.4

3.4 , ,

.
{3.2, 3.8}

1979

(likely).

. {3.9}

{3.4, 9.4}

, ,

. {3.2, 3.9, 4.4~4.8, 5.2,

5.5}

. , , ,

SST .

, ,

(thermal in-

ertia)

. {3.2, 3.9,

4.24.5, 4.7}

. {3.2}

50

1993

 (Technical Summary)

1993~2003 3.10.7

mm/yr .

, ,

1961~2003

. {5.5, 3.9}

TS.4. 20 , . D *
.
,
. {3.8, 5.5, 9.7, 11.2-11.9; 3.7, 3.8, 9.4}

20C

(1960 )

SRESb
21

(warmer days and nights)
, (colder
days and nights)

()e

1970

1970

(warm spell)/:


(
)

( )f

:
a
3.7 .
b
SRES IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC ) . SRES
<Summary for Policymakers> Box .
c
( 10%)
d
( 10%)
e
/
f
.
1% .
g
{5.5.2.6}.
. {9.5.2}
h
2100 {10.6}.
.

51

 (Technical Summary)

Box TS.5:
(: 2003

, 2005 7 (Mumbai)

, 150

.
.
Box TS.5. 1.

.
.

( , 24 )
.
(extreme) .
(probability distribution function; PDF) , (normal)'
(Gaussian)' ((bell curve)' ) . Box TS.5 1 PDF ,
( )
. (: ) (
) . .
IPCC 2 (SAR) . 3
,
. 3 , ,
(: ).
, () PDF
. 3 ,
( TS.4). (: ),
. (:
) .
. ,
.

. SST

. {3.3,

. , 1970

3.4, 3.9, 5.2}

. ,

. {3.3,

3.8, 9.5}

TS.3.5

,
.
,
. ,

,
,

, ,

52

 (Technical Summary)

(likely). ,

17

(, , , )

11 TAR

TAR

()

. {6.6]

1 CO2

(<1) 10

CO2 -

, ,

CO2 65 .

CO2

. {6.2}

. {6.4, 6.6}

20 500

(Holocene age)

50 ,

20

1300

11,000~5,000

. TS.20 ). ,

5,000 ( ) 20

, (growth

band) (proxy)

. {6.5}

. 3

. ENSO

, ,

, , ,

. ,

1850

. {6.6,

6.7}

TAR (proxy),
,

. {6.5, 6.6}

TAR
. 12~14 17~19
.

53

 (Technical Summary)

(, 1961~1990)

Proxy Record Locations: AD 1000

Proxy Record Locations: AD 1500

TS.20. () 1300 . 12 (proxy) ( )

. ( ) AD 1000 AD 1500 (proxy)
( : , : , : / , : ).
6.1 6.10 , 6 . { 6.10 6.11}

54

 (Technical Summary)

Box TS.6: (Orbital Forcing)

(
(Milankovitch
Cycle)
(isolation)')
.

.
{6.4}
(precession) 19,000 ~
23,000 (quasi- periodicity) 1

. ,

.
2
, 60 W/m
(Box TS.6, 1).
()
22 24.5 ,
Box TS.6, 1. (Milankovitch cycle).
41,000 .
T' ( ) , E' , P

(precession),

. {FAQ 6.1, 1}
(
). {6.4}
400,000 100,000 .
.
. 400,000 100,000
(Box TS.6, 1). {6.4}
(Milankovitch) .
, 1
. , , ,
. .
. , ,
. {6.4}
.
, 30,000
. {6.4, FAQ 6.1}

. Last Glacial Maximum(LGM; dir 21,000

) (6,000 )

(random variability)

. 16

(Box TS.6).

LGM

. 8,000

. {6.4}

. ,

55

 (Technical Summary)

TS.21. 12 5 ()

(). (proxy) . ()
() () (proxy) . ()
. 3 .
Renland(R), (N), (S, GRIP, GISP2), Camp Century(C)
( ) Devon (De) Agassiz (A) . Dye-3 LIG (D, ) . {
6.6}

,
(<0.4)

TS.4

. {6.2, 6.4, 6.5, 9.3}

125,000

20

4~6 m (

. IPCC 1

TS.21).

(FAR)

. 6 , 2 (SAR)

20

20 3~5

. 3 (TAR) 50

4 m

TAR

. {6.4}

.
,

56

 (Technical Summary)

Box TS.7: -
- (Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model; AOGCM) ,
. 21
, . TAR
. {8.1}

. . {8.1}
. .
.
. ,
, . ,
.
. 1 10 . {FAQ
1.2, 9.4, 11.1}
(Model formulation). AOGCM (: , ,
) . (: )
(process) . AOGCM control integration
. {8.2, 8.3}
. .
, , . (
) ( )
. ( )
. .
. (ocean water mass
structure), , .
. . {8.3, 8.5, 8.6}
. (NAM/SAM, PNA, PDO)
. ENSO -
(Madden-Julian Oscillation) . {8.4}
. . ,
21
. 20 (: ,
, , ) .
LGM
.
.
. . {6.4,
6.5, 8.1, 9.39.5}
. ()
. .
,
. [8.4}
. ,
() . .
. {8.1, 9.6, 10.5}

57

 (Technical Summary)

(: )

. ,

(Box TS.7).

20 TAR

(proxy)

, .

TS.22 Box TS.7) {8.2~8.4 m8.6, 9.2~9.4}

(<5%). (,

, , ,

( TS.23).

. {9.1}

( TS.23).

TS.4.1 : , ,

, , ,
. {3.2, 3.4, 9.4}

. {2.9, 3.2,
5.2, 9.4, 9.5, 9.7}
20

TAR .

, 50

10

( TS.23

) / .

, ,

. (Black Carbon Aerosol)

. {2.9, 6.6, 9.1, 9.2, 9.4}

. 20

58

 (Technical Summary)

1961~2003

. {5.2, 9.5}

( TS.3 ). 1961~2003 1993~2003

. {3.3, 4.4, 8.2, 8.3, 9.5}

20

10 .

1950 10

TS.22. : .

. () 1906~2005 10 1901~1950 10
10 . (spatial coverage) 50% (-) .
5 19 5~95% . 9.4,
FAQ 9.2, 8.1, 9 . {FAQ 9.2, 1}

59

 (Technical Summary)

1993~2003
.
10

. , 10
20 .
10
. 1961~2003
10
1993~2003


. {5.5, 9.5}

TS.4.2

,
. 3


.

. {3.2, 3.4, 9.4}
20

.
. ()
. (Coupled
Climate Model) 6

TS.23. (a) 1901~1950
( )
,
.
,
.
. (b)
(a)
.
,
.
. {
9.5}

60

 (Technical Summary)

3 .

20

{8.3, 9.4}

( )

. ,

. {9.4}
50

. ,

2003

, ( )

. {9.4}

. ,

12~1

(hPa/50)

(m/sec, 50)

TS.24. 1955~2005 10 12~1 . () ,

. () , . 8 ,
. (Geostrophic wind)
, , . 9
, 8.1 . { 9.16}

61

 (Technical Summary)

TS.4.3 , ,

TS.4.4

, (Annular

1950 7

Mode: AM) ,

( TS.24 ).

10

(Northern Annular Mode : NAM)

(Southern

( 20

Annular Mode : SAM)

) (:

) . ,

20

(proxy)

{6.6, 9.3}

. 20

TS.4.5

.
{3.6, 9.5, 10.3}
. 20

. 20


.


.
, ,
SST
.
(SST)
SST
. SST
SST

. {3.3, 9.5, 10.3, 11.2}

(equilibrium climate sensitivity)8)

3
, 30
. - CO2
( 550 ppm) 2
- 3
1.5~4.5 .

.
4
-(AOGCM) , 150
(, , )
, (
TS.25 )
. 1
LGM(Last Glacial Maximum)

.

8) .

62

 (Technical Summary)

. {8.1, 8.6, 9.6, Box 10.2}

2~4.5

3. 1.5

(GCM)

. 4.5

- (coupled

water vapor-lapse rate feedback)9)

. , 1 1

4.5

W/m2

50% . GCM

10

6 .

(positive)

. ( )

20

95

. {Box 10.2}

. {3.4, 8.6, 9.3, 9.4, 9.6, 10.2, Box 10.2}

, CO2

()
TS.25. 20 (), (), proxy data(), -(AOGCM:)

. IPCC 4 (Box TS.1 ) .

{Box 10.2, 1 2}

9) .

63

 (Technical Summary)

( TS.5 ).

. {8.3, 8.6, 9.4, 9.6,

10.5}

.
. AOGCM

TS.5. CO2-eq

CO2 .

(): ,
. ( )

,

.
{10.7}

CO2-eq
(ppm)

()

350

1.0

0.5

0.61.4

450

2.1

1.0

1.43.1

550

2.9

1.5

1.94.4

(transient climate change)

650

3.6

1.8

2.45.5

750

4.3

2.1

2.86.4

. (CO2
1%/yr 2

1000

5.5

2.8

3.78.3

1200

6.3

3.1

4.29.4

20
) .
(parameter)

TS.5

, 1
3 .

3 ,

. 10

14 AOGCM 23

Box TS.8:
(Simple Climate Model; SCM)
. SCM - , , ,
(representation) .
. {8.8, 10.5}
ESMICs(Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity) , ,
.
,
. SCM EMIC
.
,
. EMIC ,
. {8.8, 10.5, 10.7}
AOGCM. , ,
. 3 (Box TS.7 ), 20
. , (wave process)
, (water mass) . AOGCM
. AOGCM
. , AOGCM AOGCM
( ) . {8.2}

64

 (Technical Summary)

2000 ,

(:

CO2 2 4 , 2001~2100

SRES ,

2100 ,

. SRES

. 1

{8.1, 8.3, 9.4, 9.5, 10.1}

. {10.1,

3 ,

10.3}
EMICs(Earth

System

Models

of

Intermediate

Complexity)

AOGCM .

AOGCM

. {10.1}

. ,
, ,

TS.5.1

.
.


.
-
. {8.6, 9.6, 10.1, 10.3,
10.5}
SRES
(Marker)
. TAR
3
. ,



.
. ,

.

,
(Committed warming: Box TS.9
) .

,

. {10.3, 10.7}

IPCC

. FAR SAR 1990 ~ 2005
0.3/10 0.15/10
.10) 2
1

. TAR SAR .
0.2/10 (
TS.26) .

10) IPCC First Assessment Report, Policymakers Summary, Second Assessment Report, Technical Summary 18 .

65

 (Technical Summary)

Box TS.9: (Committed Climate Change)

, ,
. (committed warming)'
.
,
. {FAQ 10.3}
. ,
. .
, .

. . {10. 7}

. {1.2, 3.2}

/10) . SRES
.

SRES

2000 (Box

. 2050

TS.9 )

SRES

20 0.1/10

(1980~1999

. SRES

1.3~1.7), 1/4

2 (0.2

TS.26. . ( TS. 6 ) (

), 10 . IPCC FAR () SAR ()

, FAR . 1990 10 .
, , SRES B1, A1B, A2 ( TS.32) ,
. 2000 ,
. { 1.1 10.4}

66

 (Technical Summary)

3 .

{10.3, 10.5, 10.7}

{10.5}

. AOGCM SRES A1B

2000~2020 1.30.7

mm/yr , A2 B1

TAR .

CO2

1993~2003 , 1.60.6 mm/yr

A2 , CO2 2100

(2000 )

1 . {7.3,

(2000 2000

10.5}

)
. {10.6, 10.7}

6 SRES 1980~1999
21 (2090~2099)
(spread)
5~95% TS.6 .

TS.5.2 21

70~75% .
21

.
TS.5.3 .
,
. 6 SRES

3 .
3
. B1 SRES 21

21 (2090~2099)

AOGCM

2000

1980~1999
TS.6 .
AOGCM, ,

1961~2003
(1.80.5 mm/yr) .
,
0.02 m
0.15 m.
.
. {10.6, 10.7}

( TS.27 ).

, 2090~2099
TAR 10% , TAR

TS.6. 21 . {10.5, 10.6, 10.7}

a
(1980~1999 2090~2099, )

(1980~1999 2090~2099, m)

( )

2000
b

0.6

0.3 - 0.9

NA

B1

1.8

1.1 - 2.9

0.18 - 0.38

A1T

2.4

1.4 - 3.8

0.20 - 0.45

B2

2.4

1.4 - 3.8

0.20 - 0.43

A1B

2.8

1.7 - 4.4

0.21 - 0.48

A2

3.4

2.0 - 5.4

0.23 - 0.51

A1FI

4.0

2.4 - 6.4

0.26 - 0.59

:
a
1 , EMIC, AOGCM .
b
2000 AOGCM .

67

 (Technical Summary)

2100

2090~2099 .

TAR

. 21

, 1.65

5~95% TAR

2 . TAR

TAR

. {10.6, 10.7}

21

. , , 21

2090~2099

AOGCMs 5~95% (normal fit)

AOGCM
AOGCM , MAGICC
AOGCMs
MAGICC ,
MAGICC (PU),
MAGICC , /
BERN2.5CC
BERN2.5CC ,
BERN2.5CC , /
Wigley 2001
Stott 2002/2006
Knutti 2003
Furrer 2007
Harris 2006
C4MIP
AOGCM
AOGCM +60%, -40%

( )

(
m
)

TS.27. () 6 SRES 1980~1999 2090~2099

. AOGCM , -40% ~ +60% . A2

C4MIP (Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project) (
), EMIC ( ). (
10.29 ). () 6 SRES 2090~2099(1980~1999 ) .
(spread) 5~95% , . AOGCM
( 10.A ).
. . { 10.29 10.33}

68

 (Technical Summary)

TS.7).

. 21

{8.3~8.5, 10.3, 11.2~11.9}

21

. {10.3,

11.2~11.9}

(MOC)

0.1~0.2 m .

. {4.6, 10.6}

TAR ,

( TS.28 ).

(Box

()

TS.28. 1980~1999 21 . SRES B1(

), A1B(), A2() AOGCM 2020~2029 10() 2090~2099 10() ()
. AOGCM EMIC
. SRES .
. { 10.8 10.28 }

69

 (Technical Summary)

( TS.28 ) {10.3}

. (extreme)

21 MOC

20 95

. SRES A1B ,

. 21

2100 25% (0~

90%

50%).

, 40% .

. MOC

, ,

. 8 ,

Labrador Sea Water

20

AOGCM MOC

. {8.5, 10.3}

. , MOC

(cold air out-

21

break) 50~100% .

. MOC

. {8.7, 10.3}

20 (frost) 21

21

. 2070~2099

A1B , AOGCM

0.08 m ,

. {10.3, FAQ 10.1}

25%.

. (thaw

depth)

. {10.3}

TAR

(SRES A1B, A2, B1)

, 1

, ,

21

.{10.6}

, A2

21

TAR

. TAR

. -

(: )

. ,

. 3

14

21

(12~2 6~8)

. {8.6, 10.3, Box 10.1}

70

 (Technical Summary)

(Hadley Circulation)

(NAM/NAO SAM)

(Box TS.2 ).

NAM/NAO SAM

. SAM

. 1970

, .

, ,

. {10.3, 8.5, 3.8}

TAR ,

, (A1B

2100 20%)

. {3.6, 10.3}

. 50

SST ,

. ENSO

(20~40)

100

( TS.30

. {10.3}

). {8.3, 10.3, 11.2-11.9}

100 km~20 km

(Signal)

. {10.3, 11.1}

. ,

Box TS.10: (Downscaling)

AOGCM , , (nested) (empirical
downscaling technique) . AOGCM
.
, .

. {11.10}
. (subpolar region)
, .
, .
ENSO, NAO, (blocking), (thermohaline circulation), .
, .
.
. {Box 11.1, 11.2~11.9}

71

 (Technical Summary)

. SRES

. ,

( TD.32) .

TS.28

. {11.2~11.9}

. SRES
2000~2050
()

TS.5.3

. {11.1}
SRES 2000~2050

21 ,

, 21

( TS.30).

20

( TS.29 ).

, 2030

(transition

20 10

zone) .

(A1B )

20

TS.29. 1906~2005 : 10 () 2001~2050 . 1901~1950

. , 20
, ( TS.22 ).
SRES A1B 5~95 . (, 10 )
20 10 5~95 . 10 10 . ,
1996~2005 2000. ,
. 14 58 ( ), 5 (14 ) 19
( ), 18 47 ( ) . {FAQ 9.2.1 1, Box 11.1 1)

72

 (Technical Summary)

. {11.2, 11.6,

11.7}

. -

, .

. {11.2~11.5}

21

( TS.30 ).

(South Island) Tierra del Fuego

, ,

. {8.3, 11.2, 11.4 ,11.6}

12~2

6~8

12~2

6~8

12~2

(2090 ~ 2099, A1B )

(2090 ~ 2099, A1B )

6~8

TS.30. 1979~1993 (mm/day) ( ) ( ) SRES A1B

1980~1999(%) 2090~2099 (). 12~1 ,

6~8 . 66% .
90% . { 8.5, 10.9 }

73

 (Technical Summary)

. {7.3, 10.4}

TS.5.4

CO2

CO2
,
. TAR ,

. SRES A2 ,
21 CO2
10~25%
,
2100 1 .
, CO2
CO2 .

CO2
. SRES
21 pH 0.14~0.35
( ),
0.1 .

. SRES
21 600 ppm
CO2 CaCO3 .
.
CaCO3
.

. {Box 7.3, 10.4}


(Box TS.9).

CO2

CO2

TS.31. 5 EMIC . CO 2

750 ppm 2100 0 . ()

CO2 CO2 . () . ()
. { 10.35}

74

 (Technical Summary)

(i)

(: VOC)

(time lag),

(ii)

OH

.{7.4, 4.7}

. CH4, CO

, N2O

1 ,

1 (SF6, PFCs). CO2

. CO2

. ,

CO2

CO2

. CaCO3

. 2

CO2

VOC

30,000~35,000

. EMIC

CO2 1000

VOC

750 ppm

(dimethyl sulphide)(

CO2

) (sea salt)

2100 0 .

. {7.5}

CO2

CO2

(650~700 ppm) 2 (

560 ppm)

100 ~

400 ( TS.31 ) {7.3, 10.7}

-CO2

CH4

CH4

10, 20

0.8 .

CH4

. , ,

75

 (Technical Summary)

0.6

(1980~1999 )( TS.32 ). B1

. {Box 7.4, 7.6, 10.7}

A1B 21

0.5, 100

. {10.3, 10.7}

, ,

. CO2

, ,

CO2

. -

, CO2 450 ppm

21

{Box 7.4}

670

[630~710]

ppm

GtC

490

[375~600] GtC . CO2 1000 ppm

TS.5.5

0.5~0.6
. 2000
20
100 , 2100

,
1415 [1340~1490] GtC
1100 [980~1250] GtC . {7.3,
10.4}
A1B 2100
, 2030
0.3~0.8 m (1980~1999 ),

SRES

20

TS.32. SRES A2(), A1B(), B1() ( 1980~1999 ). 20

. A1B B1 (Box TS.9 ) 2100
. 2000 .
. , 1 .
. ,
( 10.5 ). { 10.4}

76

 (Technical Summary)

. {10.7}

2100

. A1B

2100 ,

0.03~0.21 m/100 .

. {10.7}

1.9~4.6 1

21 MOC

. 7 m

MOC

125,000

4~6 m

100

. {6.4, 10.7}

MOC

( )

. {4.6, 10.7}

. {8.7, FAQ 10.2, 10.3}

77

 (Technical Summary)

TS.6
TS.6.1 , (Drivers)
:

CO2 CH4 , (positive)

) 50~60% .

65

CO2

. {6.4}

. {7.3}

, , 250
. {2.3, 7.3, 7.4}

()

, ,

. {2.9, 9.2}

(flaring) CO2 1990

6.40.4 GtCyr-1 2000~2005 7.20.3
-1

GtCyr . {7.3}

, ,
,
1750 (net warning

40 CO2, CH4, N2O

influence) . {2.9}

2000 .
{6.4}

CO2

. {2.5, 2.7}

(, CO2

. {2.3}

. {2.4, 7.5}
-

. {2.5}

. {2.3}
1
20

. {2.4}

{2.7}

CH4
. {7.4}

78

 (Technical Summary)

TS.6.2
TS.6.2.1

. 12

11 1850

{3.4}

. {3.2}
1900~2005
1970 ,

. {3.3}

. {3.2}

. {3.8}

1970

{3.8}

. {3.3}

1980 .

. 1958~2005

{3.4}

, .

. {3.3}

(residual errors)
. {3.4}

1979

. {3.8}

. {3.5, 3.6}

. {3.4}

. {3.8}

DTR

, , ,

. {3.2}

. {3.8}

,
. {3.3}

79

 (Technical Summary)

TS.6.2.2 , ,

. 19

1990

(Amundsen shelf ice) .

, Larsen B Ice Shelf 2002

. {4.5, 4.6}

. {4.6}

1980

150 .

3 . 1990

{4.2, 4.3}

7% , 20
0.3 m . {4.7}

1978 ,
,
. {4.4}

1960

(snow water equivalent data)

. {4.6}

. {4.2}
(basal process)

. {4.4}

. {4.6}

, - ,
. {4.5}

TS.6.2.3

( ) 1955

20 .

. {5.2}

19 20
. 1961~2003 1993~2003

. {5.5}

. ,

. {5.5}

,
. {5.2}
80

 (Technical Summary)

1993~2003

. {5.5}

{5.5}
1750 CO2
. {5.4, 7.3}

, ,

1961~2003

10 (Moderate)

. {5.2, 5.5}

. {5.5}

MOC . {Box 5.1}

TS.6.2.4

125,000

. {6.4}

4~6 m . {6.4}
20 500

50 ,

1300 50

. {6.4}

. {6.6}

. {6.4}

2000
. {6.6}

(proxy)

. {6.4}

. {6.6}

, ,

20

. {6.4}

(proxy) (proxy)
,

{6.6}

. {6.6}

81

 (Technical Summary)

TS.6.3

50

. {9.4, 9.7}

20 m

{9.4}

20
. {9.5}

10

. .

, ) . {9.3}

( )

.{9.5}

. {9.4, 9.5}

50

. {9.4, 9.5}

. ,

. {9.4}

. {5.2, 9.5}

1961~2003

{9.5}

, ,

. {9.5}

82

 (Technical Summary)

TS.6.4
TS.6.4.1

. AOGCM

(parameterizations) , .

~1

(: ) (: )

. {FAQ 8.1}
.
,

.


. {8.4}

, Madden-Julian Oscillation,

(atmospheric blocking),

. {8.2}

. {8.4}

. {8.3}

{8.2}

. {8.6}

. {8.1~8.5}

TS.6.4.2

2~4.5, 3

. 1.5 .

1 ,

{8.6, 9.6, Box 10.2}

. {8.6}

AOGCM

. 1 3

. {10.5}

. {8.6}

83

 (Technical Summary)

. {8.6}

TS.6.4.3

. {10.3}

. {10.7}

, MOC 2100
. MOC 21

(near term)

. {10.3}

.
AOGCM 1980~1999

2011~2030 3

SRES , B1, A1B, A2 0.64~0.69

. {10.3}

. {10.3, FAQ 10.1}

,
. {10.3}

( )
CO 2

. ,

CO 2 .

. {10.3}

, CO 2
.

. {7.3, 10.4}

. 21
.

21 MOC

MOC

. {10.7}

2100
, MOC

1~7 .

. {10.3, 11.1}

84

 (Technical Summary)

ENSO

(: ENSO, NAO,

(blocking), MOC, ,

. {10.3}

). {11.2~11.9}

. {10.3}

. {7.3, 10.4}

TS.6.4.4

21

. {10.7}

{10.6}
21
. {10.7}

( )

, .

. {10.6}

(
) . {10.7}

TS.6.4.5

50

. {10.3, 11.2~11.9}

{11.2~11.9}

. ,
, ,

. , ,

. {11.2~11.9}

, ,

.
,

.
85

 (Technical Summary)

{11.2~11.9}

. {11.2~11.9}

.
{11.2~11.9}

AOGCM (: ,
, )
. {10.3, 11.2~11.9}

86