SSI Institutional Research - 3Q14 Earnings Preview

SSI Research - c tnh K

STT

M C
phiu

Xu hng li
nhun Q2/2016

VCB

Tch cc

BID

Tch cc

PHR

Tch cc

VHC

Tch cc

DBC

Tch cc

PNJ

Tch cc

TCM

Km tch cc

VNM

Tch cc

DHG

Tch cc

10

STK

Km tch cc

11

IMP

Km tch cc

12

HPG

Tch cc

13

HSG

Tch cc

14

GMD

Km tch cc

15

NCT

Km tch cc

16

PVD

Km tch cc

17

PVS

Km tch cc

18

PGS

Km tch cc

19

TDH

Tch cc

20

KBC

Tch cc

21

DXG

Km tch cc

22

PAC

Tch cc

23

AAA

Tch cc

24

PPC

Km tch cc

25

MWG

Tch cc

SSI Institutional Research - 3Q14 Earnings Preview

SSI Research - c tnh Kt qu Kinh do

Nguyn nhn nh hng n li nhun
Q2/2016

Chng ti k vng li nhun trc thu ca VCB tip tc tng trng cao mc hai con s trong qu 2 nh (i)
cc mng kinh doanh chnh tip tc tng trng mnh, v (ii) chi ph trch lp d phng gim so vi cng k

Chng ti c tnh li nhun trc thu ca BID na u nm 2016 c th t 3,6 nghn t ng, tng 16% so
vi cng k nm trc nh li nhun t hot ng thoi vn khi VID Public Bank c c tnh t khong
800 t ng. Chng ti c tnh khon li nhun bt thng ny c th ghi nhn trong qu 2/2016.

Chng ti c tnh li nhun rng ca PHR s t 25 t ng trong qu 2/2016 (+25% so vi cng k nm

trc) nh bn g cy cao su v sn lng tiu th n nh

Chng ti c tnh VHC c th t 145 t ng li nhun rng trong qu 2/2016 (+63% so vi cng k nm
trc) do gi bn c tra sang th trng M tng v t sut li nhun gp ci thin do gi kh u nnh thp

Li nhun mng kinh doanh chnh trong qu 2/2016 t 100 t ng (+89% so vi cng k nm trc) nh gi
tht heo tng v mng chn nui

Tng trng li nhun cao nh mng kinh doanh ct li t kt qu tt v cng ty khng trch lp d phng ri
ro u t: Trong qu 2/2016, mng kinh doanh ct li vn hot ng tt ng nh k vng ca ban lnh o.
Thm vo , PNJ s ghi nhn 40 t ng li nhun bt thng t bn t v khng ghi nhn thm bt k
khon trch lp d phng no trong qu 2/2016. Trong qu 2/2015, PNJ ghi nhn 130 t ng chi ph trch lp
d phng ri ro u t vo Ngn hng ng

Tng trng li nhun m c th do nh my Vnh Long i vo hot ng t qu 3/2015 v c tnh cha ha

vn cho n qu 3/2016

Chng ti k vng li nhun rng ca VNM qu 2/2016 c th tng 10% so vi cng k nh doanh thu tng v
gi sa bt tip tc kh quan.

Tng trng li nhun nh u i thu. Nh DHG c cp thm giy php sn xut, t trng doanh thu t
nh my mi tng khin thu TNDN ca cng ty gim.

Gi si Polyester vn chu p lc do nhu cu m m v cnh tranh gay gt t Trung Quc

Trong 5 thng u nm 2016, li nhun trc thu t 39 t ng (so vi 5T2015: 55,2 t ng) cho thy trong
thng 4 v thng 5 li nhun trc thu t 12,5 t ng (so vi T4 v T5/2015 l 22 t ng). Kt qu ny l
do doanh thu gim khi giy php sn xut ht hiu lc v doanh thu qua knh nh thuc gim, hn na IMP
ghi nhn phn ln chi ph bn hng trong qu 2/2016.

T sut li nhun c th tng nh gi bn tng ch yu do gi thp th gii tng v p thu t v.

Giai on 3 d n Khu Lin hp Thp bt u i vo hot ng trong thng 4/2016 v s gip tng sn lng
tiu th.

Hng li t gi thp cn nng thp mua trong qu 1/2016.

Nhu cu thp tng thc y sn lng tiu th

Chng ti c tnh li nhun trc thu trong qu 2/2016 ca GMD t 151 t ng -12% so vi cng k nm
trc. Nm trc, container lnh ng gp 50 t ng li nhun khng thng xuyn vo nhun gp qu
2/2015. Nm nay, s lng container lnh gim khong 50-60% do nhu cu t Trung Quc gim v khng c
tnh trng tc nghn ti bin gii nh nm trc. Mng logistics c tnh tng 15% so vi cng k nm trc,
y c th l mt phn nguyn nhn khin KQKD gim trong qu ny.

Sau khi mt Korean Air v Emirates (~20% th phn) trong thng 3/2016, doanh thu v li nhun qu 2/2016
ca NCT c th chu mc gim ln. Chng ti d bo li nhun trc thu t 77 t ng, gim 30% so vi
cng k nm trc.
Mc d trong qu 2/2016, PVD s hu thm 2 gin khoan t nng bao gm PVD III v PVD VI, vi hp
ng trong 45 ngy v thu tip mt gin khoan Nht Bn trong hn 2 thng, chng ti c tnh li nhun rng
ca cng ty qu ny c th vn gim ng k khong hn 80% so vi cng k nm trc do cng sut hot
ng ca i khoan gim mnh, s ngy thu gim cng nh khi lng cng vic v gi dch v gim.

Li nhun sau thu ca PVS c tnh t 265 t ng (-57% so vi cng k nm trc) do doanh thu gim
mnh 30-50% ti tt c cc phn khc hot ng do gi du gim, ngoi tr phn khc FPSO/FSO.

Li nhun rng c tnh 24 t ng (gim 25% so vi cng k). Do CNG Vietnam khng cn l cng ty con ca
PGS, li nhun theo cng gim. Tuy nhin, PGS s ghi nhn li nhun t bin t thng v thoi vn.
Trong qu 2/2016, TDH c th ghi nhn li nhun t chuyn nhng phn cn li ca d n Long Hi cho nh
pht trin th cp c thanh ton 50% v phn cn li s thu vo cui qu 2/2016. Trong khi , doanh thu
hng tn kho cng t kt qu tch cc. V vy, TDH c th ghi nhn li nhun tch cc trong qu 2/2016 trong
khi cng k nm trc l 16.4 t ng.

Cng ty m c th l trong qu 2/2016 do ghi nhn doanh thu thp t KCN Qu V. Tuy nhin, dng nh cng
ty hon tt chuyn nhng 6.3 ha khu nh cng nhn vi tng gi tr hp ng khong 190-200 t ng;
nu vy li nhun sau thu hp nht qu 2/2016 c th t t nht 150 t ng, tng 71% so vi cng k.

Li nhun sau thu qu 2/2016 ca DXG d kin t khong 80 t ng, gim 44% so vi cng k nm trc
do mt s d n vn cha sn sng bn trong qu (gy gim li nhun t dch v mi gii)

Trong na u nm 2016, PAC t hn 75 t ng li nhun trc thu (+19,4% so vi cng k nm trc)

Trong na u nm 2016, AAA c tnh ghi nhn 58 t ng li nhun rng so vi mc l 0,6 t ng cng
k nm ngoi.

PPC c th s phi ghi nhn l trong qu 2/2016 do l t gi ng k (c tnh hn 400 t ng ch trong qu

2/2016)
MWG c tnh ghi nhn hn 800 t ng li nhun rng trong na u nm 2016, tng hn 80% so vi cng
k nm trc

Kt qu Kinh doanh Qu 2/2016

Khuyn ngh cho giai
on u t 1 nm

Trung lp

Trung lp

Tng t trng

Trung lp

Trung lp

Trung lp

Tng t trng

Trung lp

Trung lp

Trung lp

Trung lp

Trung lp

Trung lp

Tng t trng

Trung lp

N.a

Trung lp

Trung lp

Tng t trng

Trung lp

Tng t trng

Trung lp

Trung lp

Trung lp

N.a

Kinh doanh Qu 2/2016

Downside

Quan im u t

VCB duy tr v tr dn u ton h thng ngn hng Vit Nam v kh nng sinh li v qun tr ri ro. Ngn hng thnh cng
trong vic gia tng h s NIM, th phn nhng vn thn trng qun l n xu vi t l trch lp d phng cao nht trong s
cc ngn hng nim yt. Tuy nhin, vi c tnh PB 2016 &2017 l 2,4x v 2,2x cha phi mc hp dn nn chng ti gi
quan im Trung lp i vi c phiu ny.

BID l ngn hng ln th hai trong ngnh, nhng t l n xu v tri phiu c bit ca VAMC vn mc cao s lm gim
li nhun do chi phi trch lp d phng ln. Thm vo , h s CAR suy gim s to p lc ln tng trng ti sn trong
trung hn. Li sut cho vay gim tng th phn cng c th nh hng n h s NIM.

Trong s 5 cng ty ln nht trong ngnh cao su t nhin Vit Nam, PHR c sn lng tiu th ln nht so vi cc cng ty
nim yt khc v cng l cng ty c kh nng thanh khon cao nht (gi tr giao dch trung bnh 3 thng: 3,3 t ng). Cng
ty cng c ROE cao nht l 9,5% so vi cc cng ty khc ch 4%-6%. Ngoi ra, sn phm ca PHR a dng bao gm cc
dng sn phm cao cp SVR CV50, 60 (40% sn lng u ra) c gi cao hn cc loi khc gip doanh thu cng ty cao
hn cc cng ty cng ngnh.

Chng ti a thch c phiu VHC do 1) gi bn c tra sang th trng M tng 2) T sut li nhun gp tng; 3) li th cnh
tranh tng ti th trng M nh thu chng bn ph gi 0% vo th trng ny; v 4) VHC c v th tt hn p ng lut
Farm Bill
Chng ti a thch c phiu DBC do 1) Gi tht heo v gi cc sn phm t tht tng thc y mng chn nui v kinh
doanh ging vt nui; 2) Gi kh u nnh hi phc c th gip tng gi thc n chn nui v tng t sut li nhun gp
mng thc n chn nui
Chng ti c tnh doanh thu 2016 t 8.623 t ng tng 12,5% so vi nm trc. Gi nh cng ty trch lp d phng 115
t ng cho Ngn hng TMCP ng v a c ng , li nhun trc thu c th t 577 t ng (+188,3% so vi nm
trc hay 20,8% so vi nm trc nu loi tr khon trch lp d phng cho Ngn hng ng v l t thng v thoi
vn khi Saigon M&C trong nm 2015, trch lp d phng cho Ngn hng ng v ng Land v thu nhp t vic
chuyn nhng t trong nm 2016). Li nhun rng c th t 462 t ng tng 189,3% so vi nm trc. EPS 2016 c
th t 4.229 ng v EPS ct li 2016 c th t 4.778 ng.
Cho 2017, chng ti c tnh doanh thu tng trng chm hn vo khong 12% so vi nm 2016 t 9.654 t ng v li
nhun rng tng 38.3% ln 639 t ng. EPS 2017 c th t 5.849 ng. PNJ ang c giao dch vi P/E ct li 2016 l
15.1x (cao hn P/E th trng vo khong 14x) v P/E 2017 l 12.4x. Chng ti cho rng trin vng tch cc ca mng bn
l vng trang sc phn nh vo gi v nh gi kh cao. Tuy nhin, tng trng li nhun tch cc trong qu 2/2016 tc
ng tch cc n gi c phiu trong ngn hn.

Nm 2016, chng ti c tnh doanh thu s tng 15,4% so vi nm trc da trn gi nh phn khc si vn chu sc p
(-14,5% so vi nm trc) trong khi phn khc vi v hng dt may t tng trng tch cc nh sn lng tiu th
tng (vi tng 26,5% v hng dt may tng 25%). T sut li nhun gp s ci thin khi gim ng gp ca phn khc c t
sut li nhun thp (si) trong khi chi ph bn hng v qun l tng nhm thc y doanh thu. Nhn chung, chng ti d
bo li nhun rng t 171 t ng, tng 11% so vi nm trc.
Trong nm 2017, chng ti c tnh doanh thu s tng 13,3% so vi nm 2016 v li nhun rng tng 15,8% t 197 t
ng. EPS t 2.606 ng trong nm 2016 v 3.017 ng nm 2017. TCM ang giao dch ti PE 2016 l 10,2x v PE 2017
l 8,9x. Thng tin v ni lng t l s hu nc ngoi c th l yu t tc ng tch cc n c phiu.

Cho nm 2016, chng ti c tnh doanh thu thun t 45.851 t ng (+14,4% so vi nm trc) v li nhun rng t
9.232 t ng (+18,8% so vi nm trc). Gi nh chnh ca chng ti l (1) tng trng doanh thu trong nc t 13,8%
so vi nm trc nh sn lng tiu th tng v tng trng doanh thu xut khu tng 20%, (2) Ga bn trung bnh sa
nguyn liu gim 5% v (3) T l chi ph bn hng v qun l trn doanh s c th t 18,8% trong nm 2016.
Cho nm 2017, chng ti k vng doanh thu thun tng 16% so vi nm 2016 v li nhun rng tng 7,6% so vi nm
2016 do gi sa nguyn liu d bo tng (+10% so vi nm 2016).
Theo , chng ti d bo EPS 2016 l 6.923 ng v EPS 2017 l 7.448 ng. VNM ang giao dch ti PE 2016 l 20,9x
v PE 2017 l 19,5x, thp hn mt cht so vi PE d phng nm 2015 (21,9x) nhng cao hn PE d phng lch s ca
cng ty.

Chng ti duy tr c tnh doanh thu thun nm 2016 t 3.615 t ng tng 14,4% so vi nm trc nu khng bao gm
doanh thu hng khuyn mi hng ha. Chng ti c tnh chi ph bn hng s chim 14% doanh thu (2015: 12,7%) v chi
ph qun l s chim 8,7% doanh thu (2015: 7,3%). Do , li nhun trc thu s t 764 t ng, tng 8,9% so vi nm
trc. Gi nh TNDN l 10% vo nm 2016 (2015: 15,5%), li nhun rng s t 687 t ng, tng 16,0% so vi nm
trc.
Nm 2017, chng ti gi nh rng doanh thu s tng 14,4% so vi nm trc, t 4.135 t ng v li nhun s tng
12,6% so vi nm trc, t 774 t ng.
Theo , EPS t 7.081 ng trong nm 2016 v 7.973 t ng trong nm 2017. DHG ang c giao dch ti P/E 2016 l
12,5x v P/E 2017 l 11,1x. Chng ti a thch c phiu DHG nh i ng bn hng mnh m, mng li phn phi rng
khp v tim nng tng trng doanh thu nh sn phm mi. Tuy nhin, c phiu thiu thanh khon v Chnh Ph ang
tht cht qun l ngnh dc phm.

Nm 2016, doanh thu c th t 1.225 t ng (+18,3% so vi nm trc) v li nhun rng t 51 t ng (-28,4% so vi

nm trc). Chng ti gi nh sn lng tiu th c th t 80% k hoch ca STK tng ng ~36.140 tn (+34,4% so
vi nm trc), gi bn trung bnh gim 12% v gi ht nha c th gim 10% . Nm 2017, doanh thu c tnh t 1.409
t ng (+15% so vi nm 2016) v li nhun rng t 70 t ng (+37,1% so vi nm 2016).
Theo , EPS c th t 1.097 ng nm 2016 v 1.504 ng nm 2017. STK ang giao dch ti PE 2016 l 22,9x v PE
2017 l 16,7x.

Gi nh IMP hon thnh k hoch li nhun trc thu nm 2016 l 140 t ng nu khng bao gm qu nghin cu v
pht trin, EPS c th t 3.065 ng (gi nh qu nghin cu v pht trin l 14 t ng, thu sut hin hnh l 20% v
qu khen thng phc li l 12%). C phiu ang giao dch ti PE 2016 l 13,4x thp hn mt cht so vi PE 2015 l
13,7x v vn mc cao so vi PE lch s ca IMP k t khi nim yt (7-15x).

Sn lng tiu th thp nm 2016 tng nh lng giao dch bt ng sn tng v doanh thu khch hng tr trc cao
trong nm 2015.
Thu t v p dng i vi sn phm phi thp v thp di c th lm gim p lc cnh tranh t Trung Quc v gip HPG
duy tr t sut li nhun tt.
Giai on 3 d n Khu Lin hp Thp gip tng sn lng sn xut thp xy dng t 1,25 triu tn ln 2 triu tn/nm,
gip HPG c th ginh th phn v tng sn lng tiu th.

Sn lng tiu th thp nm 2016 tng nh nhu cu tng mnh.

Li nhun qu 2/2016 tng mnh so vi cng k nm trc. Tuy nhin, li nhun c th gim k t qu 3/2016 do gi thp
cn nng gim t thng 5/2016.
Vit Nam ang iu tra tn m nhp khu nhm p dng thu chng bn ph gi. Nu mc thu c hiu lc, y c th l
yu t tch cc tc ng tch cc ng k n c phiu HSG.

Chng ti duy tr quan im tch cc trong di hn i vi GMD l nh cung cp dch v logistic 3PL v vn hnh cng tt
nht ti Vit Nam. Dch v khp kn s thu ht c khch hng FDI v cc nh sn xut ln khi h m rng kinh doanh v
ct gim chi ph bng cch thu dch v logictics ca bn th 3.
Chng ti tin rng cng Nam Hi nh V c v tr c a v vn cng sut tng sn lng tt trong nm nay. Qu 3
v qu 4 thng l ma cao im cho hot ng cng. Mng Logistics s tng trng 15% so vi cng k nm trc vi 3
trung tm logictics mi sp i vo hot ng trong nm nay.

Sau khi lin tc mt khch hng, th phn ca NCT ti sn bay Ni Bi gim t 80% nm 2015 cn ch 55% trong nm
2016. Mc d tonth trng c tnh tng trng 15% YoY trong 5 nm ti, chng ti vn cha thy NCT c th tng
trng tr li cho n nm 2017.
N.a

Chng ti c tnh doanh thu v li nhun rng thuc v c ng cng ty m trong nm 2016 s t 19.733 t ng (-16%
so vi nm trc) v 922 t ng (-37% so vi nm trc). Trong nm 2017, da trn gi nh gi du s hi phc nh t
mc trung bnh nm 2016, chng ti d bo doanh thu tng 9% so vi nm 2016 v tng trng li nhun rng t 16% so
vi nm 2016.

Li nhun rng c tnh nm 2016 khong 95 t ng t hot ng chnh v 343 t ng li nhun t thoi vn.

Chng ti c tnh doanh thu v li nhun sau thu ca TDH trong nm 2016 s t tng ng 913.5 t ng (tng 3.5%)
v 60.4 t ng (tng 31,6%). Cho nm 2017, doanh thu v li nhun sau thu c t tng ng 969 t ng (tng 6,1%)
v 69,8 t ng (tng 15,4%).
EPS nm 2016 v EPS nm 2017 c tnh t tng ng 759 ng v 876 ng. TDH ang giao dch PE v PB nm 2016
l 15.7x v 0.52x, nm 2017 l 13.6x v 0.5x.

Chng ti c tnh trong nm 2016, KBC s t 1.968 t ng doanh thu (tng 37,2%) v li nhun sau thu 635 t ng
(tng 5,5%). KCN Trng Du - giai on 2, KCN Quang Chu, KCN Tn Ph Trung v Khu th Phc Ninh s to ngun
thu chnh; trong KCN Trng Du - giai on 2 c th to li nhun nhiu nht cho cng ty vi k vng s thu ht nhiu
hn cc nh cung cp cho tp on LG.
Cho nm 2017, chng ti k vng cc d n cp bn trn tip tc ng gp li nhun chnh cho cng ty v c tnh
cng ty s t doanh thu thun 2.049 t ng (tng 4.1%) v li nhun sau thu 651 t ng (tng 2,5%).
Theo , EPS nm 2016 v 2017 s t tng ng 1.325 t ng v 1.358 t ng. KBC ang giao dch ti P/E 2016 11.2x
v 2017 10.9x. Vi PE mc tiu l 11x v PB mc tiu l 1,0x, gi mc tiu 1 nm ca KBC l 16.200 ng/cp, tng 9,5%
so vi mc gi hin ti

Chng ti c tnh trong nm 2016 DXG t 2.119 t ng doanh thu (+51,9% so vi cng k nm trc) v 461 t ng li
nhun rng cho c ng cng ty m (+37% so vi cng k nm trc) vi s ng gp phn ln t d n Sunview Town,
Gold Hill v dch v mi gii. EPS nm 2016 c tnh t 2.988 ng, sau khi tnh n vic pht hnh quyn mua c phiu
c th thc hin trong thng 9/2016.
Cho nm 2017, chng ti k vng d n Lux City s l nhn t chnh trong KQKD ca cng ty cho n khi bn giao. c
tnh trong nm 2017, DXG s t 2.561 t ng doanh thu (+21% so vi nm trc) v 526 t ng li nhun rng cho c
ng cng ty m (+14% so vi nm trc), tng ng vi EPS 2017 t 2.130 ng.
Nhn chung, chng ti k vng vi kh nng bn hng ca cng ty v tp trung vo cc d n phn khc thp n trung
bnh vi din tch hp l, DXG s tip tc c tc tng trng dng trong nhng nm ti vi s ng gp t vic trc
tip pht trin d n mc d vic pht hnh quyn mua c phiu c th s khin EPS pha long.

PAC s tip tc hng li nh nhu cu gia tng t th trng t.

AAA ang m rng cng sut ln gp 2 ln trong vng 2 nm ti p ng th trng Nht Bn v M. AAA cng c k
hoch lin doanh sn xut ti a nng cho th trng Vit Nam v xut khu. AAA hin ang c giao dch vi P/E
2017 kh hp l l 11x
Mc d PPC ang c giao dch mc P/B rt thp, vic ng yn tng gi s lm st gim li nhun hot ng kinh
doanh ca PPC trong nm 2016. Do , chng ti ch khuyn ngh nh u t MUA c phiu trong di hn
Mc d MWG s dt tc tng trng cao trong qu ti v trong nm ti nhngnh gi hin ti khng r.

Overweight
Underweight
Neutral
N.a
Gi mc tiu 1
Gi ti ngy
% Tng/
Vn ha (T ng) Vn ha (Triu
nm (ng)
29/06/2016 (ng) (Gim)
USD)

Khi lng giao

dch trung bnh 6
thng (CP)

45,800

47,300

-3.17%

124,723

5,591

799,331

17,400

17,600

-1.14%

61,195

2,743

1,537,703

25,600

20,800

23.08%

1,664

75

141,805

40,900

44,900

-8.91%

3,849

173

99,376

37,300

37,400

-0.27%

2,823

127

371,255

58,100

79,000

-26.46%

7,125

319

45,540

31,700

25,500

24.31%

1,286

58

542,671

145,000

139,000

4.32%

166,819

7,479

571,898

94,700

98,500

-3.86%

7,694

345

51,392

27,700

24,000

15.42%

1,343.3

60.2

33,018

N.a

42,900

N.a

1,271

57.0

12,363

41,300

39,300

5.09%

29,021

1,301

2,207,221

37,900

42,000

-9.76%

7,980

358

1,456,893

31,000

27,400

13.14%

4,952

222

387,331

127,000

115,000

10.43%

2,957

133

25,397

N.a

31,300

N.a

11,277

506

1,659,793

N.a

18,300

N.a

8,443

378

1,811,382

18,000

17,200

4.65%

880

39

393,631

16,300

12,100

34.71%

845

38

177,951

16,200

15,600

3.85%

6,952

312

1,294,321

18,200

15,300

18.95%

1,782

80

698,734

N.a

38,700

N.a

1,771

79

157,356

N.a

29,500

N.a

1,438

64

521,784

22,800

14,400

58.33%

4,677

210

502,337

N.a

125,000

N.a

15,835

710

155,390

Khi lng giao

dch trung bnh 6
thng (T ng)

Khi lng giao

dch trung bnh 6
thng (Nghin USD)

PER

T l s hu nc
ngoi (%)

34.8

1,562

21.11%

2014
20.7

2015
27.0

2016E
26.2

2017E
22.4

27.2

1,220

2.13%

9.2

14.4

12.3

12.3

2.7

123

12.05%

8.0

6.0

6.9

6.2

3.1

139

31.68%

8.0

8.4

10.4

8.4

6.4

286

25.26%

9.3

6.0

9.8

8.4

2.6

116

49.00%

15.5

28.9

18.7

12.4

15.3

687

49.00%

9.2

13.8

9.8

8.9

76.9

3,448

49.00%

15.7

21.6

20.1

19.5

4.3

192

49.00%

15.8

11.1

13.9

11.1

0.8

37

12.9%

N.a

17.7

21.9

16.7

0.6

25

49.0%

12.8

12.3

N.a

N.a

71.1

3,187

36.41%

8.1

6.5

7.9

7.2

41.6

1,866

29.75%

24.5

6.4

8.6

9.6

10.6

476

30.08%

6.3

8.0

9.4

8.2

3.2

143

14.23%

N.a

11.6

11.4

10.5

43.63

1,956

36.37%

8.2

6.5

N.a

N.a

30.01

1,345

27.22%

6.9

4.8

9.0

7.6

7.56

339

20.09%

6.1

9.1

2.7

9.9

2.09

93

41.77%

14.4

9.9

15.9

13.6

17.29

775

32.76%

17.6

10.0

11.8

10.9

11.57

519

39.54%

6.0

6.0

5.1

6.9

4.35

195

24.98%

8.2

14.3

N.a

N.a

8.98

403

19.50%

7.3

14.7

N.a

N.a

9.12

409

13.30%

8.0

10.8

8.2

6.8

12.99

583

49.00%

23.9

10.7

14.5

9.9

PBR
2014

2015

T sut c tc
2016E

Tng trng doan

2.0

2.6

2.4

2017E
2.2

2014
3.1%

2015
2.1%

2016E
2.1%

2017E
2.1%

2014

1.1

1.7

1.3

1.1

8.0%

4.7%

2.8%

2.8%

N.a

0.9

0.6

0.7

0.7

7.5%

9.4%

10.6%

10.6%

-16.0%

1.9

1.3

1.8

1.6

4.0%

5.1%

6.7%

5.0%

23.5%

0.9

0.7

1.1

0.9

5.1%

1.3%

1.8%

n.a

-11.6%

2.4

3.0

4.8

3.81

3.8%

2.1%

2.5%

2.5%

-4.6%

N.a

1.9

1.7

1.3

1.2

4.7%

3.8%

3.8%

3.8%

3.7%

4.6

7.3

7.4

6.6

4.2%

3.6%

3.1%

3.4%

13.0%

3.7

2.2

3.0

2.6

3.1%

2.8%

3.4%

3.4%

10.9%

N.a

1.8

1.6

###

N.a

6.0%

6.0%

6.0%

0.3%

1.2

1.1

N.a

N.a

3.6%

4.6%

N.a

N.a

2.2%

2.2

1.5

1.7

1.5

1.9%

3.8%

3.8%

3.8%

34.8%

1.9

0.7

2.3

2.0

2.1%

6.2%

3.7%

3.7%

27.5%

0.7

0.6

0.9

0.9

4.2%

0.0%

7.4%

7.4%

19.2%

N.a

7.9

7.0

6.6

N.a

9.7%

9.0%

9.0%

18.0%

1.6

0.7

N.a

N.a

3.10%

4.63%

N.a

N.a

40.0%

1.3

0.7

0.7

0.7

4.46%

6.35%

6.67%

6.67%

23.4%

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

4.46%

9.09%

17.05%

7.95%

3.5%

0.5

0.3

0.5

0.5

2.58%

4.20%

n.a

n.a

38.8%

1.2

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

-0.4%

1.0

1.4

1.1

0.9

0.00%

0.00%

n.a

n.a

47.8%

1.2

2.0

N.a

N.a

9%

4%

N.a

N.a

7.1%

0.7

0.7

N.a

N.a

7%

3%

N.a

N.a

34.8%

1.5

0.9

0.8

0.7

6%

10%

10.2%

10.2%

13.7%

8.3

4.6

5.2

3.8

0%

2%

1.4%

1.4%

65.9%

Tng trng doanh thu (%)

2015

Tng trng li nhun rng (%)

Tng trng EP

N.a

2016E
N.a

2017E
N.a

2014
5.3%

2015
15.6%

2016E
22.4%

2017E
16.6%

2014
12.2%

N.a

N.a

N.a

23.1%

18.4%

8.6%

11.7%

8.3%

-23.5%

10.7%

20.5%

-31.1%

-19.4%

15.5%

15.3%

-31.2%

3.2%

24.6%

15.5%

163.0%

-30.7%

25.9%

15.1%

173.6%

13.1%

13.0%

15.9%

-18.6%

22.9%

25.9%

18.3%

-18.6%

6.5%

12.5%

12%

40.7%

-37.8%

189.3%

38.3%

6.8%

5.4%

15.4%

13.3%

38.3%

-10.2%

11.0%

13.8%

38.7%

14.6%

14.4%

16.0%

-7.1%

28.0%

18.8%

7.6%

-22.4%

-7.8%

0.2%

14.4%

-10.6%

11.7%

16.0%

12.6%

-10.0%

-29.0%

18.3%

15.0%

42.6%

-32.8%

-28.4%

37.1%

13.7%

12.9%

N.a

N.a

37.8%

18.8%

N.a

N.a

33.0%

7.6%

9.7%

17.4%

61.7%

7.8%

11.4%

9.4%

60.9%

16.4%

0.0%

16.3%

-29.4%

59.1%

59.0%

-14.1%

-67.3%

18.9%

12.7%

14.7%

274.3%

-18.5%

18.7%

13.1%

282.5%

17.3%

-8.2%

3.1%

10.5%

13.5%

-15.4%

8.8%

-25.6%

-25.9%

N.a

N.a

25.3%

-29.5%

N.a

N.a

14.6%

-17.5%

-15.5%

8.8%

3.9%

-7.2%

-38.8%

16.0%

11.3%

-16.6%

-20.0%

5.4%

-1.4%

-29.8%

108.2%

-66.7%

-6.8%

55.3%

3.5%

6.1%

76.2%

-3.6%

31.6%

15.4%

74.2%

34.2%

37.2%

4.1%

280.9%

93.0%

5.5%

2.5%

279.8%

175.5%

51.9%

20.9%

137.4%

109.2%

29.3%

14.0%

39.8%

5.2%

N.a

N.a

13.8%

22.3%

N.a

N.a

12.1%

6.1%

N.a

N.a

-13.9%

-17.0%

N.a

N.a

-31.7%

2.4%

-2.1%

2.0%

-35.8%

-55.0%

9.6%

24.2%

-36.0%

60.3%

38.3%

29.7%

160.7%

59.7%

33.9%

26.9%

N.a

Tng trng EPS (%)

2015

EPS (ng)

5.4%

2016E
11.1%

2017E
16.6%

2014
1,543

2015
1,626

2016E
1,807

2017E
2,108

3.4%

-0.2%

14.5%

1,387

1,434

1,431

1,639

-19.8%

15.5%

15.3%

3,362

2,697

3,017

3,459

-26.6%

25.9%

15.1%

4,753

3,490

4,331

4,998

22.9%

25.9%

18.3%

2,952

3,627

3,804

4,499

-43.3%

189.3%

38%

2,576

1,462

4,229

5,849

-37.3%

11.0%

13.8%

3,489

2,189

2,606

2,965

-4.1%

18.8%

7.6%

6,086

5,837

6,923

7,448

-5.5%

16.0%

12.6%

6,081

5,748

7,081

7,973

-43.6%

-28.4%

37.1%

2,725

1,537

1,097

1,504

-11.0%

N.a

N.a

3,277

2,915

N.a

N.a

-31.5%

10.8%

9.4%

6,525

4,470

5,004

5,471

59.1%

59.0%

-14.1%

1,942

3,089

4,912

4,222

-26.6%

-13.5%

13.1%

4,572

3,356

2,913

3,294

-38.2%

-15.4%

8.8%

19,202

11,865

10,115

11,007

-48.2%

N.a

N.a

7,841

4,062

N.a

N.a

-11.4%

-32.7%

16.0%

3,925

3,477

2,044

2,370

-60.6%

267.7%

-71.9%

4,390

1,728

6,353

1,783

-16.5%

-32.4%

15.4%

1,343

1,122

759

876

45.6%

0.7%

2.5%

904

1,316

1,325

1,358

33.2%

-4.4%

-28.7%

2,346

3,125

2,988

2,130

-14.9%

N.a

N.a

2,742

2,334

N.a

N.a

-57.7%

N.a

N.a

1,895

801

N.a

N.a

-55.1%

18.8%

24.2%

3,284

1,476

1,754

2,178

60.4%

17.9%

26.9%

4,553

7,305

8,612

10,931

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