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CTS - Sugar Report - 140220 (Vns-Short)
CTS - Sugar Report - 140220 (Vns-Short)
02-2014
20
Thng mi quc t
33
Doanh nghip ln
nh ngha ngnh
21
a bn kinh doanh
33
ng Bin Ha BHS
Lnh vc hot ng
34
ng Ty Ninh SBT
Ngnh tng ng
24
35
Ma ng Lam Sn LSS
24
Mc tp trung th trng
24
Yu t thnh cng
25
Cu trc chi ph
26
C s cnh tranh
Sc hp dn ngnh
27
Ro cn gia nhp
Tm tt bo co
27
Mc ton cu ha
Yu t chnh tc ng
28
28
11
Chu k ca ngnh
28
29
29
H tr ngnh
12
12
Chui cung ng
12
Sn phm
30
S liu thng k
14
Yu t quyt nh cu
30
16
Th trng chnh
32
Cp nht ngnh
Lnh vc hot ng
Hot ng chnh
Trng ma
Sn xut v kinh doanh cc sn phm ma ng
Sn xut v kinh doanh cc sn phm c s dng ng, sn phm t
ph phm, ph phm ca ngnh ma ng
Sn phm chnh
ng th
ng trng
ng tinh luyn
Ngnh tng ng
011212 Trng c ci ng
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
Sn lng ng 2013
Doanh nghip
1.53 tr. tn
40
1.41 tr. tn
N/A
Tiu th 2013
Th phn 2013
ng Bin Ha
10%
ng Lam Sn
10%
Bourbon Ty Ninh
7%
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
2006
2007
2008
2009
Sn xut
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
Tiu th
C cu ng NK
C cu ng XK
0.01%
0.38%
Gi nguyn liu u vo
Cy trng thay th
81.42
%
99.62
%
Bin i kh hu
18.57
%
ng th
ng tinh luyn
ng khc
ng tinh luyn
ng khc
p. 5
Industry Structure
Chu k sng
Bin ng doanh thu
H tr ngnh
Mc tp trung
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
Pht trin
Thp
Tr.bnh
Thp
Cao
Thp
Cao
Tr.bnh
Sc hp dn ngnh
Tm tt bo co
Sc hp dn ngnh
Yu t chnh tc ng
n ngnh
Vng
Cy trng
thay th ch
yu
Bc Trung B
& Duyn hi
min Trung
Sn
Ty Nguyn
ng Nam B
Cao su, sn
BSCL
La, cc loi
cy n qu
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
Sc hp dn ngnh
Theo bo co ca Cc trng trt
(DCP), B NN&PTNT (MARD), v
ma 2012-2013 va qua, sn lng
ma p cng nghip t 16.6 triu
tn, sn xut c 1.53 triu tn
ng. So vi v trc, cng sut
thit k tng 3.3%, lng ma p
tng 14.5%, sn lng ng tng
17%.
-10.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f
0.0%
17000
-5.0%
5.0%
16600
306.0
298.2
271.0
293.6
50
248.8
0.0%
266.3
150
265.6
5.0%
270.7
200
10.0%
16901.3
10.0%
250
15045.1
300
15.0%
15946.8
15.0%
17396.7
350
100
Tng sn lng ma
Nghn tn
18000
17500
17000
16500
16000
15500
15000
14500
14000
13500
15608.3
Nghn ha
16145.5
-5.0%
-10.0%
Tng/Gim
Tng sn lng
Tng/Gim
C cu ging ma
theo ngun gc
10.72
%
5.81%
1.24%
32.52
%
11.72
%
v k thut cn lc hu nn nng
sut cha t c so vi tim
nng tht s ca ging ma c th
mang li.
Tn kho cao
18.42
%
i Loan
Thi Lan
Cuba
19.57
%
Trung Quc
Php
Khc
Ngun: SRI
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
Sc hp dn ngnh
Nng sut v cht lng ma thp
bnh qun 53,5 tn/ha v 20022003 ln t 63,9 tn/ha v 20122013. Tuy nhin cht lng ma
nguyn liu ca ta vn cn mc
kh thp, ch ng thp hn t
1,2 2,4 CCS so vi Thi Lan.
Hnh 1. So
snh nng
nng sut
sutv
vcht
chtlng
lngma
ma
ca
Vit
Nam
Thi
Lan
So snh
ca
Vit
Vit
Nam
vv
Thi
Lan
t v 2002/2003 n 2012/2013
T v 2002/2003 n 2012/2013
80,00
70,00
Nng su
Nng su
50,00
40,00
30,00
20,00
10,00
0,00
CCS (%)
60,00
CCS (%)
13,0
12,0
11,0
10,0
9,0
8,0
7,0
6,0
5,0
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
CCS (%)
90,00
2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013
V
Nng sut ma (Tn/Ha) Vit Nam
Ngun: SRI
Ngun: SRI
Gi ng st gim
Gi ng th gii bt u gim
2011 sau hn 5 nm lin tc tng
ngay t nhng thng u nm 2013, (2007-2011). Ti Vit Nam, nhn
tip tc xu hng gim k t nm
chung gi ng cng c xu hng
Gi ng RS
Vit Nam
Gi ng 11
Th gii
Cents/lb
Ngun: MARD
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
Sc hp dn ngnh
Tnh hnh sn xut kinh
doanh
(tip)
T2
T3
Gi bn bun ng RS
T4
T5
T6
Gi bn bun ng RE
T7
T8
T9
Gi bn l ng
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
Sc hp dn ngnh
Trin vng ngnh
Ngnh ma ng 2014
vn cha c du hiu
tng trng
264.35
35.99
176.03
52.33
221.19
164.63
56.56
43.16
270.53
43.16
174.83
52.55
227.15
168.48
58.68
43.38
Tng/gim
2.34%
19.94%
-0.69%
0.41%
2.70%
2.34%
3.74%
0.50%
1,541
141
1,050
350
1,420
1,418
2
121
1,521
121
1,050
350
1,401
1,399
2
120
Tng/gim
-1.30%
-14.18%
0
0
-1.34%
-1.34%
0
-0.83%
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
Sc hp dn ngnh
Trin vng ngnh trong di hn
850
20000
498
561
5000
1000
800
599
600
22510
15044
14949
25744
15947
0
2000
2005
2010
Sn lng ('000 tn)
310
300
302
300
290
15000
10000
1000ha
750
25000
2015f
2020f
Nng sut (t/ha)
303
280
400
270
200
260
250
266
266
2005
2010
240
2000
2015f
2020f
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
10
Sc hp dn ngnh
Chu k ca ngnh
Ngnh ma ng hin
ang trong giai on
pht trin v trng
thnh
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
11
Chui cung ng
Knh bn hng
Ni a
Knh bn bun: Cc khch hng doanh nghip bao gm cc cng ty cng
nghip thc phm, cc cng ty c chc nng thng mi, phn phi v c
cc nh my ng khc mua ng th v tinh luyn thnh ng RE.
Knh bn l: Siu th , ch, ca hng tp ha.
Xut khu
ng tinh luyn: Trung Quc, Campuchia, Singapore, Arap, i Loan
ng khc: M, Campuchia, Singapore, Myanmar
Knh cung ng
C cu ging ma
theo ngun gc
10.72
%
5.81%
1.24%
32.52
%
11.72
%
18.42
%
i Loan
Thi Lan
Cuba
19.57
%
Trung Quc
Php
Khc
Nguyn vt liu u vo
Ging ma hin c nc ta kh phong ph, t cc ging ma hoang di
cn tn ti mt s vng nh ma lau, ma gie, ma , n cc ging
ma c lai to ti Vit Nam hoc c ngun gc t nhiu nc khc trn
th gii. Tuy nhin theo bo co ca Vin Nghin cu ma ng (SRI),
hin nay ging ma trng ti Vit nam c ngun gc hn 95% l t nc
ngoi. Trong cc ging ma c ngun gc t i Loan (ROC, F) chim
t l cao nht (32,52%), tip n l cc ging ma c ngun gc t Trung
Quc, Thi Lan, Php.... Ging ma do Vit Nam lai to mi ch chim
1,24% trong c cu b ging ma Vit Nam.
Nhp khu
ng tinh luyn: Thai Lan, Malaysia, Php
ng th: M, i Loan
ng khc: Trung Quc, M, Triu Tin, c
Ngun: SRI
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
12
Thnh phn
Tc dng
Mt ma
66.0%
Sn xut ng
B ma
27.5%
Mt g
4.0%
Bn lc
2.5%
C cu sn phm
0.38%
0.01%
18.57%
81.42%
99.62%
ng tinh luyn
ng khc
ng th
ng tinh luyn
ng khc
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
13
'000 tn
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
Tiu th
1,435 1,435 1,450
1,110 1,150
1,170 1,225
1,251
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Ngun: MARD
Gi bn
Gi ng Vit Nam
cao hn t 20%-40% so
vi gi th gii
Cung cu
Gi bn l ng RS
VND/kg
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
14
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
ng ha hc
14
20
23
26
27
29
26
26
27
29
ng Sacarin
15
42
72
96
105
108
81
66
45
48
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
41
38
Stevia
Ngun: LMC International 2012
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
15
Th trng trong nc
Lng ng tiu th ch
yu khu vc pha Nam
2010
BSCL
ng
Nam B
Ty
Nguyn
Bc
Trung B
Duyn hi
min
Trung
Trung du
v min
ni pha
Bc
ng
bng
sng
Hng
Tng
Dn
s
(triu
ngi)
17.3
Tiu
th
(000
tn)
510
Trung
bnh
(kg/
ngi)
29.5
14.6
430
29.5
5.2
40
8.4
10.1
80
8.4
8.8
70
8.4
11.2
90
8.4
19.8
170
8.4
86.9
1,400
16.1
85%
57%
43%
15%
Ca hng tin li
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
16
Nhu cu tiu th ng
ngnh cng nghip ch
bin
31.3%
42.5%
26.2%
Nc ngt
Sa&kem
Khc
Th trng cng nghip ch bin (th trng tiu th gin tip 57%)
Th trng cng nghip ch bin
l Coca-Cola v PepsiCo (chim ti
c chia lm 4 phn: sa&kem,
90% nhu cu ng ngnh cng
bnh ko, nc ngt v cc ngnh nghip nc ngt), v cc cng ty
cng nghip ch bin khc nh rau
sn xut sn phm sa v kem nh
qu,ru bia hay dc phm.
Vinamilk (chim 2/3 nhu cu ng
khu vc ny),Dutch Lady.
Th trng ny tp trung ch yu
cc cng ty nc gii kht ln nh
Th trng xut khu
000 USD
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
830
29
228
144
366
2,359
997
3,990
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
800%
202,213 700%
200,163
600%
500%
400%
300%
200%
100%
52,196
0%
30,319
13,843
-100%
-200%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Tc tng trng
Ngun: GDVC
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
17
i vi ng tinh: Trong 11
thng u nm 2013, Trung Quc
nhp ca Vit Nam 191.3 triu USD,
chim 94.64% tng kim ngch xut
khu ng tinh, tip theo l
Campuchia vi kim ngch trn
4.4triu USD (chim 2.21%); th ba
l Singapore nhp khong 3.0 triu
USD (chim 1.5% tng). Ngoi ra l
cc th trng khc nh Arap, i
Loan
1.30%
2.21%
94.99%
Trung Quc
Campuchia
Singapore
Cc nc khc
i vi cc loi ng khc: M
v Campuchia l hai th trng
chnh ca Vit Nam, ln lt chim
65.19% v 15.48% tng kim ngch
xut khu ng khc trong 11
thng u nm 2013.
15.48%
65.19%
Campuchia
Lo
Cc nc khc
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
18
Nhp khu ng ca
Vit Nam c xu hng
gim
'000 USD
300,000
250%
252,702
250,000
200%
210,701
150%
200,000
100%
147,023
150,000
126,833
112,168
50%
100,000
0%
50,000
4,330
13,150
7,428
30,612 30,232
44,920
-50%
-100%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Tc tng trng
Ngun: GDVC
1.1%
97.9%
Thailand
Malaysia
i vi ng tinh: Trong 11
thng u nm 2013, Vit Nam
ch yu nhp khu ng tinh t
Thailand, Malaysia, vi kim
ngch l 23 triu USD v 0.26
triu USD, chim ln lt 97.9%
v 1.1% tng kim ngch nhp
khu ng tinh Vit Nam. Ngoi
ra Vit Nam cng nhp ng
tinh t mt s nc khc nh
Php, i Loan nhng vi gi tr
thp.
Cc nc khc
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
19
76.58%
M
i Loan
Cc nc khc
9.16%
i vi cc loi ng khc:
ngun cung cp chnh ca Vit Nam
n t Trung Quc, M, Triu Tin,
c, MalaysiaTrong , Trung
Quc chim 42.4% vi kim ngch l
48.8 triu USD, th 2 l M vi 24.3
triu USD, chim 23.5% tng kim
ngch nhp khu ng khc Vit
Nam
23.50%
Trung Quc
Hn Quc
Cc nc khc
Thng mi quc t
Nin v 2012/2013 Sn
lng ng xut khu
ch chim khong 13%,
nhp khu chim khong
4,5%
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
20
Theo bo co ca B NN&PTNT,
din tch ma c nc (gm 25 tnh
c nh my ng) tng 5.2%Hin
nay c nc c 40 nh my ng
Cc nh my ng
c phn b rng c
3 min ca Vit Nam
Bc Trung B
S lng nh my
Nng sut (tn/ngy)
Ma ('000 tn)
ng ('000 tn)
S lng nh my
Nng sut (tn/ngy)
Ma ('000 tn)
ng ('000 tn)
4
7,000
902
91
Ty Nguyn
S lng nh my
Nng sut (tn/ngy)
Ma ('000 tn)
ng ('000 tn)
5
19,400
1959
181
S lng nh my
Nng sut (tn/ngy)
Ma ('000 tn)
ng ('000 tn)
8
28,800
3,316
299
BSCL
S lng nh my
Nng sut (tn/ngy)
Ma ('000 tn)
ng ('000 tn)
Ngun: MARD nin v 2011/2012
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
9
25,600
3,555
296
ng Nam B
S lng nh my
Nng sut (tn/ngy)
Ma ('000 tn)
ng ('000 tn)
5
18,000
1,985
168
21
V sn lng ma p
Bc Trung B v Duyn hi min
Trung c nng sut nghin ma ln
nht trn c nc do tp trung mt
s nh my rt ln c vn u t
nc ngoi (FDI) nh NAT&L, VTS
v KCP, tuy nhin sn lng ma
khai thc c li khng cao tng
ng.
Trung du min ni pha Bc,Ty
Nguyn v ng Nam B bao gm
ch yu cc nh my c quy m
nh. Trong khi Ty Nguyn c nhiu
tim nng tng trng v quy m
sn xut th khu vc trung du min
ni pha Bc li b han ch do tnh
cht ca khu vc min ni.
i vi BSCL, y l khu vc c
trng ca kh hu nhit i nn rt
Lam Sn
8.1%
6.9%
46.6%
19.4%
An Kh
7.7%
6.9%
5.0%
24.2%
Khnh Ha
7.7%
28.1%
Bourbon Tay
Ninh
Cn Th
5.4%
15.1%
KCP
Vit i
4.6%
2.6%
3.8%
3.1%
4.6%
NIVL
Bin Ha - Ty
Ninh
Ninh Ha
Khc
Bc Trung B
Ty Nguyn
ng Nam B
BSCL
V sn lng ng
Vng sn xut
Ch
ng
Min ni pha Bc
Bc Trung B
Duyn hi min Trung
Ty Nguyn
ng Nam B
DBSCL
10.5
10.8
10.0
10.9
9.3
9.4
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
BSCL b hn ch bi ch lng
ng thp hn so vi cc vng
khc do p lc cnh tranh cao ti
khu vc ny dn n tnh trng cc
nh my ti khu vc ny thng vo
v sm, p ma non, hiu sut thu
hi ng trn ma rt thp. Tuy
nhin vi li th v sn lng ma
cao, BSCL vn l khu vc ng
th 2 t sn lng ng tng th
22
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
Lu s dng
Bo co ny c cung cp bi Cng ty C phn Chng
khon Ngn hng Cng thng (VietinbankSC), v
c s dng ch yu cho khch hang ca Cng ty, tun
theo nghim ngt cc iu khon s dng. VietinbankSC
khng c bt k cam kt c nhn no v tnh y v
chnh xc ca d liu hay thng tin c trong bo co ny.
Cng ty t chi trch nhim cng nh ph nhn tt c
trch nhim php l (ngoi tr nhng trch nhim khng
th ph nhn theo lut php) i vi bt k tn tht hay
thit hi no c gy ra hoc pht sinh vi bt c c
nhn no, bt ngun t vic s dng hoc tin tng vo