You are on page 1of 315

FO62

9 :

(Van K,Tharp)


100 53 7
com.tw
http:www mcgraw-h

Emai tw~edu~se ice@1ncgraw- l1.com


Te

(02)2311-3000 Fax (02)2388-8822

Foi gw
17696619


McGraw- ll Education(As
60Tuas Basin Link,Singapore638775,Repub
Te (65)6863-1580 Fax (65)6862-3354

c of singapore

EEna
rnghasia~sg@mcgraw~h 1,com

|
|

(02) 21-ms9
25 691858

10 1 ( )
0

Super Trader Make Consistent Proflts in Good and Bad Markets

Copy ght 20O9by Lake Lucerne LP


Tradt0nal Chinese Translation Copy

EnterpHses,Inc.,1

Eng

ght 2010by McGraw-Hi Intematonal

wan Branch

sh e jon pub

by The McGraw-Hm Comp e

In 8-0-07

163?51-

IsI;N:978-986-157-692-3
9 9
: :( ) 17 BO

9
( )

, 9
:

9 :

?
:
,

: ,
9

( ?)

9 (
9 ? ?)
,
9 9

//
///$uper T ader:Mak

consistcnt Prof In Good and Bad Markcts

9
9
, (Curtis M
Faith) 9
(
9 9zOOg 9 zT9
) :
9

9 9
,
,
, 9 9
:
, , 9
9
9
: ,
9 ,
,
9 9
,
:htV://tw myblog ahoo. Wrandy-wang/

! 9
: ! 9
? 9

:
; ,
; 9 ,
, 9
,
9 9

,
9 ,
,
( ) Foi 9
:

( ) 9
( ) 9

//

'/$uper T

ade

Makcc nsistcnt Pron

in G
d

and Bad M

( )
9 9 ( )
9 9

9
9
,
, 9
9 9
,

2000 9
9 9
9

9
9
9
9
Foz 9 9

9 ,

9
: , ,
? 9 9 (Joe
sth)
03 9
9 6,sO0
3,0O0 , 9
9 3s
9 9
2,000 9
9 ,

00 03 9
3O% zO03 9
, 10%
5,000 9
9
9 9

10 '/
//$uper Trader:Makc c

nsistcnt P1 oft

in Good and B Marko

9 ,
100 ( 2O00 )

, 9
9 ,
10% Foi 9
9

9
9

(Wa en Buffett)
9
,
9 2003 2005 9
1z 9OS
9 3,000
9
zOOs 9 sO 9 %9
% 4,000
,
9
9

CNBC

(Suze Orman)
(Jim cramer) 9
:

\ 11

9
9
9 2 0
% ? 70%
9 9 10% Fo,
Foi

9

9
, ; ,

, ,
? ,
,

l+ 7,0O0 Foa
9 9

9
9 ?
9

9 9 ! ?

research.stlou ,org/pu Cat ons/re ew/Os/lO//KOtko

11//1i

Br :Fc nslstcnt

Pr nts G

d and:ad Mark

ts

.pdf

FoB

1. ?
?
2, , ,

3. ( Rll)?

4. , ?
5. ?
6, ?
7. ,

8. , ?

9. ,
?
1O

11. (positiOn sizing


gOHthm), ?
,
?
12,

13.
?

)r J \

13

14.

15, 9

15
10 , 9

: 9
9
9

9
9 9
9 9 9s%
? 1% 2%
,
9 ?
9 (b lout poht)? 9
1R ? R
9 3R( )9
9 9
? , ?
, 27

14/
//$uper T ader:Makc c

nsistent Pro

tsin Good and Bad Marke

P-1 2008

S&P500

P-1 9 9
03

5OO

(S&P500) ,10

0 sO
10 OT

40 ;
S&P500 14SZI zO 3

9S&P 0 0

9 %

9 s&P500 1400

( O3 )9
1, 0

15

06 , 9 14sO

(market type an ysis) 9
2008 1 9
20O7 6 ,

9 ,
9
9
9
9 9 ?

9
9 : 9
,
9

9 2003 4
08 1 ,
: 9
9 P-1
08 1 9 9
, P-1
9 9
9

16 /

//$uper t ader:Makc c tcnt

Proftsin Good and Bad M k s

9 9
P-2

MYGN 9

zOOg
3 7 9 7 8 ,

9 20O7 7
9 ,
9 (Apple)
9 9
799
, 08 9 19 08 10 8

9 / ,

2MYGN

=-UmH
I,

ro

dCUC""

17

9 9
( ) 9
,
? 9
? 9 ,
9 9 ,
9 9
? 9
?
9
9
(Van Tharp hstitute) (super Trader)

9
,
9

18 /
//$uper ader:Mak

c n$i$tcnt Pronts i

Good and Bad Markcts


,
9 9
9 ( )
(

)9

)9

9 9


1. Fn9

9 Foi

2. ,
9 9
9
9

9 ,
9

) \

19

(% rP
%og ) 9
3. , ,

, ,

( ),
, 9
9
4. ,
(position sizingW) ,
,
9 10%
9
,
5. ,
,
9
,
,


9 9
9 9
9

n /
//$uper Trader:Make c

nsistenk Pron

1nG
d and Bad Markets


:
9
?

( )
9
9

9
19
9 (
) 9 :
9

(
)9 9
9
, 9
9
9 ,
9
9 9

9 ,
9 9
9 9
,

n1

9 9
9 9
9 9



:
,
: FoB


9

22

'$uper ader:Makc c
d and
n stcnt Pr(ln1si11G

Bad Markcts

9
92001 ,

JBg s

ror

cj J

9
:(1)
;(2) ;(3)
( 9 )
; )
9 9
9

:
( F)

9
,
,
9 ( 2008

9 ( 2003

o Van K,Tharp,D.R,Ba on,and S,sjuggerud,Safe Srrareg`es`rnancW


Freedom,New YOrk McGraw-H ,2004

23

1999 9
(Cary)
,

9 ( )
:
: 9
9 ,
9
, 9 2000 2002
9 08 ?
91999
, , ,

92007 9
(inverse hdex funds) 9 zO08

: ,

/$uper T ader:Makc

cclnsistent ProEts i G0od and Bad Man

,
9 13 (ro ng windows)
13 9
( 1950 ) 5 ss% 9 13
9
5.53%, ,
; 9
(average tme range9 ATR)
13 ATR
2 ST% 9
2.BT, ; 9
1 58
9 9
9
9 9

9
, 9


, 9 %

\ n5

58

10.08%

20.31%

10,96%

41,35%

1.83%

37.98%

18.84%

58,65%

11,91%

58,29%

29,80%

1OO,OO%

10R

,R 910R

TO% 1R ,

, 9

10% 5R , 9

9
, ,
9 :

gO% 9

? 100 9 R
9 +gOR ,
9 0.8R 9

0.8R( 100 9 gOR)


9 1% , 100 9
SO%o 9 ?
9
9 9 9 9

26

$uper Trader:Makc c nsls1cn|Pr1,l

1`in(iood al

d Bad Markc1s

10 , 9 sO%9

5 9 9

2
9 9 9

2 sO%9 5 9
9 9 100
9


9
9

1. 9

2. 2 9 2

3.

9 (
) ?

9 ?

)9
( )9

( 10

9
9 9
9 9 5% 10% i
9 ,
F


9
: 9
, 9
9
9 9

: ,
, ?
9 ; 9
;
9
9 9
9 9 4R

28 /

cnsistcnt

//$uper ader:Mah

Pronts in Good and Bad Markets

9
R 9 sO%9
1 % %9

9
0.4R 4R
zO% ,
%
,

29

(neuro~ nguistic progra ng;


NLP) 9 NLP
9
9
9
9
9 9

1990 9 (Market Wizards)
(Ed seykota) (Tom Basso)
9 :
elJ
(

yo r

Wcy ro cj J

,
% %9
10% 9

(position sizing)

90%

Van,K.Tharp,Trade y r Wayr F anc Freedom,2nd ed.,New York

McGraw-H ,2OO7.

/
~

/'
/$uper
Trader:Makc c

nsistcnt Pm ts

Good and Bad Marke

9 9

199O 9
9 100% ?
9
9
9 9
9
9
9
,
9 9

9

Pa

1.

:glj

33

:
9 9

1. :

2. : 9
9 9

9
9 9
9
9

3. , :
9
9 9 9
9 9
9
9
9

4. : ,
9
9
9

5. ,

100 sO 100

34 //
/'$uper Trader:Makc c

nsis ttt Pl o siu

Good and Bad Mark

F ( 100 )
9 : i
( )9 l

9 Fni ,

,
?
(mental rehears

)?

9 ?

9 ,
99q 9 ?
9 elJ
,
9 9

5%

9 9

5% 10%


9
? 9
?
9 ,
? 9

? 9 9

Part1

:gll \

35


FHa ?

,
9 9
,

3 /
//$uper T ader:Makc c

nsistcnt P1ontsin G od and Bad M qrk s

q
9 9
9
9

9
9
; 9
9 9

9 9
9

SAM

9 SAM

Part1

\ 37

:
9 9
9 9
9 9 9
9
9 9

? 9 9 ,

9 9
? ?

9 ,
(being) 9 (doing)

(having) ,
9 ,
9
9 9

9 ,

,
9 ,
(perfectionism- mplexity mplex)
, 9

38 /
//$uper t ader:Makc c

nsistcnt Plt,n in G

d and

Bad Markcts

, 9
9 9
Foi 9 9
9 9
FHB 9
9
9
9 :
9 9

9 9

9
9 ,

9 (

9
: ,
: 9
9
9

9
9 9
9

Pa

:glJ

39

z 9 9
F

9
9
?

? (

)9

,
9

,
9
9


: 9
9 ,
9 9
9 9
/

9

9
9
9 9

40 /
/ $uper Tlrader:Makc c nsi$ nt

P ntsin

Good and Bad MarbLs

9 9
9 9

9 9

9 9
9

? ?

9 ?

9 9

9Fo,Fo,

? 9 ?

? ?


9
9 FoB 9 17
9 9
; 9
9 Fog

Pa"1

:alJ \

41

1. /

2. 9

3. 9
(
9 )
4. 9 9
9

5. 9

6. ,

50
( ) R

( )9


7. , 50
( )


8. 9

sO

( )


9. 9

42 /

/ $uper T ader:Makc c

nsistcnt Pl osts i

Good and Bad Markcts

15. ,
16.

17. /

10. 9


11.


12.

(drawdowns)


13. 9
9
14.

9 9

9 9
~

14 / 9

10-13 ,
;

Part1

:glJ \

43

7-9 9
,
(NFL)
4-6 9

9

9
3 /
, 9
; 9 Fo,
? 3 12
9 9

9 9

44

/
$uper Trader:Makc c nsis nt

Pro tsin

Good and Bad Marh

(Turtles) 1,000
9
( chard Dennis)
(B Eckhardt) 9
9 sz 9
9 9 |
9 (Curtis Faith)

Cu is Fa"h,Way ofrhe Turr/e,New YOrk

McGraw-Hi |,2007,

Pa

:glJ

45

9 9
9 9

, 9
9
9 9
i
9
9

9 9
9
9
(Tharp Trader Test)9
15 9 f0l
,
m,
www tharptraderte
9 9
9

9 9
9
9 ,
9
9 (Paul Tudor

46 /

//$uper Trader:Makc c

otlt

Plonts in G

d and

Bad Markt,ts

JoIles)

9 9
9
9 (Starbl1cks)
9 9
/ , 9

9
15 9
1. : 9

(1)

9(V 9

2. :
9
9

3. : ,
9 9

4. : ,
, ,
9

Part1.

:gll

\ 47


5. :
9 9
9

6.gql :

9
9 ,
9

7. :
9
9

9
,
8. : 9
9
, 9
9

, 9
9

9.
10.
11.

48 /
//$uper ader:Makc

nsistcnt Pronts in G

d and

Bad Mark

12.
13.
14.
15.

9
9 9

Part1 :glJ

9 9

9 ?
( mmitmeIlt)
9
BT
, 9

9 : 9
9

9

9 ,
,
9 9 9
9 !
9

,
: 9
F

50

$uper Trader:Makc c nsistc

Plo

tsin Good and B Mark s

1. 9
2.lW^ ,

3.

4. ,
5.
9 :
9 9
:
9
9 9
9
9 9

9 9
9
9
9

9 9
9 9
, 9

Part1

:glJ

51

9 9
,
9
9
9
,

A B 9 B 9
9 9
,

1
, ,

52 /

$uper Trader:Mak c nsistcnt

Pro

tsin Good and Bad Markots

9 ,
, 9

? 9 9 9

9
9 9

9 9
9
, 9

9
, 9
9 9

9
9
, 9

: 9

9

Part1

:glJ

53

9
9

9 P
P P
9

46 9 20
, 9

E R

,K

E R



100 9 100

9 Foa 9 Foq Fi ,

P
P 9 12 16 9
P 9
, P

54 /
/$uper Trader:Makc c
ns1stcnt PlC,

in

Good and Bad Markots

` 9

,
9 , P

P 9
( ,
)P , 9
9 9
9
9 Foi,
9


9
P
9 ,
9
9
9

9 P
9

9
, 9

:glJ

Part1.

9 9

?
?

9
, Foq,
i;J

l}

9R M

k ,k ,k ,k ,k ,k,k ,k ,k

RM

,
9
9 9

9 9
,

9 ,

9 Foq ||
9

//
$uper Trader:Makc c nsis It

P1os

in Good and Bad Markcts

q
9

,
9 9
FH, 9

9
9
9

(Kda Tharp) J

Pa"1

:glJ

57


9 ,
9 9

9 ,
9 9
Avatar 9
, 9 elJ
9

/A
J

kdatharp,cOm9

58 /

/$uper t
ader:Mak

c nsis nt

Prontsin Good and B Ma ots

9 (Julia

Cameron) 12 ell (% A Wy)


,
s

9
, ?
9
9 (

)9

9 ,
, ,
: mIl 9
, 9
9 9
; ,

9
9
9 9
Foi 9
(

)9

Ju

|a cameron,The

yyay,10th anniversary ed.New York

Tarche12002,

`sr

Part1 :glJ

q
:
? :
9
,
,
, 9
9 9

9 glJ
: 9

9
9 9 9
( )
9
( ) 100
9

9 (positive expectancy)9
9 9
9
9 ;
9

60 /
/$uper Trader:M

ec ,n stcnt Plof

in Good and Bad M

)9 9
( )9

9
:
? 9
FoB 9 9
(

)9

9 9
9

9 Foa : ?

( )
9
9


,
:

9 FoB
9 Foi 9

Part1

:glJ

61


?
,
9
9


9 9
,


? 9

? ?

9 ?

9
?
9 ?
?
9 ?
Foi 9 9
9
9 Foi

62 /

// $uper TYader:Makc c sl ont

P,t,n in G
dand

Bad Ma s

q ?
9 9
9 (

) , 9

?
9 ,
?

9 9

,
9
9

9 9


9
9

,
9 9

Part1 :glJ

\\ 63

9
9 9 9
,
9 9 9

, 9Foa

? ?
?
9 9
,
9
9

'

//
/$uper T ader:Makc c

nsistcnt P

in

Good and Bad Markcts

( )
9 Foi 9
: ? ?

9 9

(feedback) ,
? 9
9 9

, 9

rx

Pa

:glJ

\ 65

9 ,
9

:
9 ,
(empowerment) 9
9 ,
9
, 9elJ
9
9

Part1

:glJ \

67

9
9
elJ

9

4

:
9
9 9 9
9 (

)9

? (fai )
o
,
9

9 :

, ,

17:

9 9

/'

$uper Trader:M

cc ,nsistc lt Prof lil Good and Bad Markts

: 9 9
9 ,
11:

: ,

11

9
9 9 ( i

) ( 9

) 9 9
9 9

9 (

) 9

Pa

:glJ \

69

9 ?
9
9
9 (Trader Reinvention

Paradigm)9

9 9 9

9
9 :
? 9 9
?
9 9

9
9 9
9




70 /
//$uper t ader:Mak

c nsi$tent Pro

t$in Good and Bad Marke

9
9 9
sO ,
9

glJ

9 , 15 ,
9mll 9

9 9
,
9 9



9 ,
9 9 500

Part1

:glJ

` 71
\|

mlJ 9

9
9 9
9

100 9 9
, (Belief
Ex 1rrlinati( n

Para(ligm)

1. ? ? ? ? ?
?

2. 9 ?( )
3. , ?( ,
)
4

5, , ,

?(llE 9 9
,
9 9 )

6. , ,
? ( )9

72 /
/'$uper Ilrader:Makc consistent Plonts in G

d and

Bad Markcts

, 9 9
9

: 9
9


9
9


9
9
9 ? ,
9


9
9

? Foi
?

Pa"1.

:glJ

73

\l


9 9

9 9
9
9
( 9
)
?
,
?

9 9


9
9

? 9

9 9
F

74 /
//'$uper ader:Makc

consistcnt Plo tsin Good and Bad Markcts


; 9
9
9 9 9
9

9
9 9

Part1

75

; ,
9
9
9 9

9 9

B 9 9
9
,
9 9 9
9
9
,
9
9
9 9
9
9

9
9
9
9 9
,

76 /

//$uper ader:Makc c

nsistctlt P

In

Good and Bad Markcts

9 L
9
9 (

)9
9 , 9
9 5O0 9
9 1,000
1,000 9 9
2,000 9

Foa 9
,
Foi 9 Foi
9 ,
Fni , FoB
?
, 9
i 9
9 9 FoB

, 9
9
9 ,

Part1.

:glJ \

77

\{

9
9
9
9
9

9
9 9 9
9


9 9
9 Foa
9

78 /

//$uper t ader:Makc c

nsi$tcnt Plo sin Good and Bad Markets

9 ?
9
9

( ndfulness)9

,200S 10 9

9 9
9
9
9 9 9

9 9
, ;
9
9

9 9
9 9
, 9
9

Pa"1

:glJ `

79

(being)
(Ellen Langer) 9
: ( j JP: ss) (%
Pow o/Mj JL rPaj g)
9 (1)elJ

;@) ;o)

;(4) ;


( ndlessness)
9 9 9
9 9 9 9
9 gll 9

9 9

: 9

L 9 ,


9
9
9

E||en J,Langer,Mndft/lness.Reading,MA

Addison Wes eyJ1989,E||en J.

Lange1The POwer of M ndFu/Lea=g,Read|ng,M`\ Addison-Wes|ey,1997,

80

/
'$uper t ader:Makc c

n stc t P ntsin

Good and Bad Mark

9
9


ABC C
9


9
, ,

? ?

? 9

elJ 9


9
9 FnB(

) 9


, 9

Part1 :glJ \

81
`

Foi 9
9
9



: ?
9
: ?
9 glJ (ng the market)
9

9

82 /

//$uper Trader:Makc c

n s Plon in G
d

and Bad Mark

,
9


9

9 9
9 9

9 9 ?
9 9
? 9
9 9

9 ( ntext) 9
9 20,000 9
1,sO0
1,500 9
9
9 : 9
9

Pa"1 :glJ

83

9 lk+?
9

,
9
9 9

, ?

9 9

(

)9

84 /
/ $uper Trader:Makc c

nsis nt Plo tsin

Good and Bad Mark

9 9
9
9
,

9 ?
9 9
,
9 9
9 9
9 9
9 9
, 9

9
?
9
?
,
9

? ?

Part1 :

85

9
9 9
9 ,
? 9
9

9 9
9 ? 9

9
9
? ?

86 /
/ $uper Trader:Makc c n s nt

Pntsin G
d and Bad Markcts

9
9
, 9

9
Foi
Foi

? ?

? 9

Part1

:glJ \

87


9
9
9 9
9
9 ,
Fng ,

,Fna Fnz

: Fnz
, ,
9
? ? ?
? ?
2.

Fna ,

Fnz


3.

Fqa

9

4.

: 9
,

,
:
:

,
5.

, ? ?

88 /

/ $uper t ader:Makc c

nmstcnt Plon in G od and Bad Markcts

? 9

6.

9
,

7. ,
,

8.

, 9

,
,
,

9.
10. ,
,

9
9 9 ,

9

Fgg 9

9

Part1

:glJ \

89


9
9
9
9 9
: 9
:
9 9

9
9
9
9 9

9
Foa
9 9
9 9
9 9 i 9
F

9 Foa
9
9

/
$uper1 ader:Make

nsis nt Pro sln

Good and Bad Markcts

9 9
FoB

9
9 9
9
9
9

Pa"I :glJ \

91

9
, 9
9
9 9
9
(dssociate) 9 9


9 9
: (
) 9
9 9
9 9
; 9

9
9 F ,
9 9
9 9
F,fa

92 /

/$uper TYader:M dkc c nsi$tcnt P

nts in Go

d and Bad Markets

(associated)
9 ,

9 9

9
: , ElJ
9
? :
,
9
9
(

),

, 9

(Michael Jordan)
9
9


(Jack Schwager) (% JV:w r
Jack sohwager,The Alew Marker yylzards,New York
F

New York nstitute of

nance,1989

Part1 :glJ

z ) 9 9 (Mr

Serenity) 9 9

:

,
9


9
Fol
9 9 Foi 9

` ` `

` 9

,
( G Vp#9,1990 12

,
9

9

: 9 9
9
9
9

94 /

/ $uper t ader:Makc c

nsistcnt Pronts in G

d and

Bad Mark

?
9 9
9
9 9 ?
? ? ?
9
9
9

FoB : 9
? ? ?
? 9 ?
FW^ 9
9 , 9
,

9
? 9

9
9

Part1.

:glJ

95

9

: 9 9
9 9
,

9 9
9

?
9
, ,
9

,
9 ,

9
9 9 ,
9 L 9

9

$uper t ader:Mak

c nsistcnt P

tsin

Good and Bad Marbts

,
9 ,
9
9 9

9
,

9 9

Pa"1. :glJ \

97

00
,
9
9 :
9 9

? 9


9 : ?
9
9

, :
9
9

98

$uper ader:Makc c

ns tcut Pro sin

Good and Bad Markcts

9
FoB 9
, ,
9
9 9
9 9
9 9
9 9
9

9
9 9 9
9
,

9 ;
9 9
9
: 9
9 ,

Part1 :

\ 99

,
: 9 9


9 9
9 9
9 9
9 9
9

100//
'$uper1 ader:Makc

nsi$ nt Pron ln G od

and Bad Markets

9
9
,
9

-
9 9
: 9
9
9 9
9 9
9 9
9 9
,


9

9




9
9
?
9

Pa"1

:glJ 101

9
;
? 9 9 ?
9
9 9

? ?

i 9

102/
//$uper rI ader:Makc

consistcllt P

nts in G

d and

Bad Markets

q ?
(Jerry Stockng) ,

g j g Co')

(
9 /
:

:
: ,
,
9

, 9
, 9
9
9
9 P P
9 ,
,


9
9

Jerry stocking,Laugh gw God.Clarkesvi||e,GA

Pa

Moose Ear Press,1998,

:glJ \

103

? (Ed Seykota)
: 9
9
9

9
: ,
9
9
9

9 9 100
, ?100 ?
?
: 9 !
?
9 9
9 9
? ?

, ( 9

Jack schwage
York

104/

T/,e Alew M

ke

izardsr/nrerWews rh TOp Traders,New

New YOrk|nstitute of Finance,1989.

//$uper T ader:Makc c

nsistcnt Pronts in G

d and

Bad M b

) 9
? ? ?
9 ? 9 ? 9
? 9 ? l+
9 ? ?
9

?
9
9 ? 9
?


9
9
9

,
9 9
9
9 9
: ? 9
9
Foi :
? 9

Part1.

: \105

9
9 (passive in me)
9

? 9 9
? 9
9

9 ? ?

9
,
: 9

9

(having) (doing) (being)


( )
9

9
9
9 9

106/
'/$uper Trader:Ma

c nsistcnt Pl onts in G

od and B M kc

( )9


9 9
9 :
9 9
9
9
9 9

9 9
,
9

Pa

1.

:glJ

\\107

9
9
9
9
9
:

9

9 9 9
,
9 9 9

9 9
? ?
9

9 :

9

25 9

9 ?

108/

/'$uper ader:Makc c

nsIstctlt P

in

Good and Bad Markcts

9 F:B
9 ;


, 9 500
9 9 9
9
9 9
9 9
9 (

9
9
9 9
9
9
9
9 ,
, 9 ,
?
9
, lJF

9 (
9

9 9 9
q ?
9

9

,
9
(behgness) 9

9
9 9


,
9
9
? ?
?
9
, :

9 9

110/
//$uper Trader:Makc c

nsistcnt P nts in G

d and

Bad Mark

Foi 9 9
9 9 9

9 FoB 9
: 9
,

9
9
9 9
,

?
,

9
% 9
9
9
9 9
9 9

9
9
9

Part1.

:glJ \

111

9 9
9 9

1. 9 9
9 9

2. 9
9
9
9 ,

3. ( )9
9

9
9 9
9

4. 9
5. 9

112/

//$uper Trader:Makc c

nsis nt

onLs in G

d and

Bad Markcts

9
9 9
9

9
1 2
9 fFmfFm , 12
2 9 ,

9
`o9 9

||||

|| !JLlj

9 9

, 9
9
9 9
9 9
9 9

9 9 9
So ) ,
( j J ror
9
9

: 9 9

9

, FHi
9 , :
? ?
9
9

Sonia choquette,WFam s fOr rhe Sou Da D Ses of VWsdom FOr PersOna/


pOvyermenr,CaHsbad,CA Hay House,2005

114/

//$uper Trader:Makc c

nsistti t Plo

tsin Good and Bad Mark

9 , 9
9 9
9 ,
? 9


9
9 ,
9 9 9
9
9
: 9
9 9
9
9 ,
!

(A o yo/fJJ ss)
(Norman cousins)

Norman cousins, na onny ofan ll/ness New YOrk NO1tonJ1979.

Part1.

:glJ

\115

9 9

9 9
9
, ,


9 :
9
9 9
,
,
9 9 9
(

)9

9
9 ,
9 9
9
9
9 9
1.

2.
3.

116

//$uper Trader:Make c

ont

P htsin Good and Bad Mark

, 9


9
9 9 9
9

9
9 9

;
9
9
9 9
,
9 9
, 9


, 9
fg
9
9

9 i

Part1

:gll 117

9
:
, 9


9 ;
,
9 ,
9 9
,
9 (A

Co

's

9
9 9

MjmcJ s)

9
9 9 9
,
9 9
9 ,
i
9

Co rse Mi c`es,M

Va
ey,CA

FoundaUon for|nner Peace,1975.

118/
' $uper I

ader:Make c

nsistent Plonts in G

d and

Bad Markcts

9 9

9
9

9 9

9
9

9
9 9 9
9


, :
? 9

9 :
9 9
9 elJ 9


,
9 9

Part1 :glJ \

119

9 (r rr g or
9
,sf,jrj )

9
,

9
, 9
9 9
9
, :
9
(law of attractio11) 9
gll , 9
elJ 9
9 9
9 9
, Fni,

Les ie

ng
Temp|e-Thurston and Brad Les|ie,T/le Ma age or Sp En o rened L

TOday

yy r/d,Santa

120/
/ $uper ader:Makc

istcnt

Fe,NM CoreLight,2oOo,

Plofits in Good and Bad Markc

9 9

9 9
9 Foi

: 9

9
9 9 9
9 ,
9
(%
m J)

C d

s cr


9
(Joseph Campbell)

(% Pc,w or ) 9
9
:

9
1986 9

o Rhonda Byrne,The Secref Grat

ude Jo
na .New YOrk AtHa Books,2007,

D Joseph Campbe |,T/,e PooVer oF Myrh,New YOrk Doub eday,1988,

Pa"1

:
\121

\}i

9
9 ,
9 9
9 9
9

19sT 9 9
9 9
(

)9

122/
//$uper ader:Makc

c nso nt

P1o sin Good and Bad Markcts

9 9
, 9

9

llg, 9
9

9
9

? ,

9 9

? 9

elJ

9
9 9


9
9
,
,


9
, 9 9
Fng 9 , 9
Fqa (

)9

9 9
,
:
? ,
9
: ,
? ,
,
9 9 9
9
9 : 9

9
9 9

? 9

124

? 9 ?

'/$uper Trader:Make c

nsistcnt P ts

Good and Bad Markc

,
9
9
9 9

9
9 :
9 9
9 9 :
?

9 9
9 ? ,

9 ?
9 9

: 9
9
: !
,
9 9
, 9

Pa"1

:glJ 125

9 9

9 9
,

9 (

( ) 9


9 , 9
,

9
9
, 9
9
, ;
9 FA3 9
9

9 9

126/

//$uper Trader:Makc c

nsis

Pm tsin

Good and Bad M

kc

ts

! 9

9J

9

9
elJ 9
,
9 9
, 9 glJ
ell 9
9

Part1 :glJ \

127

, 9 9
9 9 9
,
?
9
(Harry Goldbatt)

,
9



9

(Jack Shields)

9

9
9 9
: 9
: 9
9 9

Harr Go|db|att and G

myocardium su ected

s from rat
adys Caer n,|nduced ma|ignancy in ce

to interm ent anerobiosis duHng long propaga

on in v ro,

Jourl,a`oF Expe menra`MediCjne,97(4) 525-552,

D Clydette C ayton,http //www.artic|esbase,com/hea th-artic|es/why-deep


breathing-fo fast-back-pain-re"ef-582458,htr

128/

//$uper Trader:Makc c

nsis nt P

tsin

Good and Bad Markets

9 9
1:4 2

9 FHa

, 9
9
9 9
9 ,
9

9

(Pranayama Pranakriya) ,
9 9

199O 9
9
, 9
9
9 9
9
9

9
,
9

q 9
9

9 9
9

9
9
( )
9

9
%9
9 :(1)
, ) 9 9 o)
9 9
,
9
1% 9 1R9 sO%

, ,
9

130/
//$uper Trader:Makc c

nsist t PloOtsin Good and B Markt,

9 ,
9 9
9

9
9 9
,


9
9 9

? 9
?

? 9 ?
9 9
9


, ,
9
9 ,

9 9

,
9
9 9
9 9 9
9
9
9 9 9
9 9

9
9
, 9

,
? ? 9
9
9 9
9

132/

//$uper1 ader:Mah c nsistcnt Pron

in G

d and

Bad Marke


9
9
9
?

,
9 9
, ,

Part I

: 133

) 9









?

9 ,

: 9
(

)9

9 9

134/

//$uper Trader:Makc c

nsistctlt Pront$in G

d and

Bad Mar

9
9
,
9 9
9
, !

( ) :

9 elJ
, 9

9
9 9 :

9 9

9
9
9 9 9


9 9
: 9 ?

9
9
9


9 9


9 9
9 9


F
9

186'/
'/$uper Trader:Makc c

nsistcnt Pro

tsin Good and Bad Markc

9
9 9
9
,
; 9 9 ,

(sedona Method

Course)9 ,
9
9
9
9
9 9

9 ?
, ,
9
,

, 9
9
9 9

o Hale Dwoskn,The SedOna Merr, df YOur Key rO Lasng Happ ess,S CCess,
PeacG and Erno

Ona

We//-Be`ng,sedona,AZ Sedona Press,20O3,

Pa"1

:glJ \

137

15 9
9 30 9 , 10
9

5 9


9
9
9 9

138/

//$uper ader:Makc c

ns

ut

P,oRtsin Good and Bad Mark

9 9
9
Foi
, 9
9
9 9 9
9 9
,
9

(

):

9
` 9

9 9
9
` 9
`
,

Pa

:glJ \

139

,

(

):

9
9
9
Fo,

9 Fol 9


Foq 9
, ;
9 ,

9
9 9

, ,
, ,

9
9
9
,
9
: ( ) ,
9

140/
//$uper t ader:Make c

nsistcnt Proa

,n Good and Bad Markcts

Foq 9 Foi

FoB ,
Foa ,

, Fol ,
9
9



9

9
, ,
,

9


9

: Foi
9 9
9 , F,FB

1, 9
gT


9 9
9 ,
,
:
?

? Foa 9

Pa

:glJ \\141

: 9
, `
Foi 9


: 9
( ,
, 9 )9

FoB :
Foi

? 9

FoB ?
9 9

142/

'/$uper Trader:Makc c

nsistcnt Pl ont$in G

d and

Bad Markots

q
.

? 9 ? 9 FFa
? 9
9
9
,

144/

//$uper ader:M ec nsi$tt Prontsin G od and Bad Markc

dfund

1. ? ,

2, ? B

A B
3

? J

Pa

: 145

4,
9

5.

(expectancy) ? (setups)
? ?
9 ? ?
:
?

6,

( 9

) ?

7. ,
? Fpg

8. ?
9. ? ?
10. ? ,

11, , ? ?
12. ,

:
? : ` F
` 9

146/
/$uper Trader:Makc c

nsistont pi ltl Got,d and B Markc

13. :

, ? 9
?

14. ? ,
?

9
9

h"

\lJ1Ti

\|`J

9

9 9
9

9
9

elJ
,
9
9
, 9
, ,

9 9
9
9 9
9
:

9
9 2.5
( 9

148/
//$uper T ader:Makc c

n$istcnt Proflt$in Good and Bad M

kc


9 a
P

9 9 (

)9 Foi Fo,

: 9

?
, 9 9

9
9
, ,
,
9
;

9
9
9 9
9
:
9 9
, (

Pa

: \149

\ |

)9

9 ,
(
9

)9 glJ

, 9

9

,
9 9
9
100% 9
9 9
9 R
9 9

9 1% 9
8R( R

)9

100% 9 9
,
, 9
9 FHi

150/

/ $uper t ader:Makc c

nsi$tcnt P

ntsin Good and Bad Markets

,
9
lk+ 9 9
9 ,
9 ,
: ( scretionary trades)9
9

9 9
9
9 9 ? 9
9 9
?
? Foi

? 9 ?
FoB 9 9
9
,
9
9 2.5 9
9
glJ ,

Part2

: \

151

9 9 15%
%9
9
9 F
9

9
F
? 9 9
(1) 9 ) 9

, ( ) Foa
?

152/

/ $uper t ader:Makc c

ns, cnt P

tsin

Good and Bad Mark

9 ? 9
9 9

9
9 9
9

9
9
9
? ?
9 ?
9

Pa"2

: \

153

A B9 B
9 :
9 (drawdowns) 9
9 9
9

20% 10% 9
9


9
, 9 1,O00%

,
2% 100%

,
9
,
1% 75%
, ,

154/

/ $uper Trader:Make c

nsistcnt Ploftts in Good a

d Bad Markcts

9 9

9
/
9 9
? 9
50% 9 9 fFm

q
9 ,
9
9 9
?
9

( )
( )

156/

/$uper T ader:Makc c nsistcnt Prt,nts in G


d and

Bad MarkoSts

, F ( )
( )
( 9 )
9 ( )
? 9
9 ,
? 9 ! 9
9
,

9 9

: (trend following)
(trend follower),
9 9
9 9
9 ;
(
) 9

Jk^

elJ 9 ?
, 9

Pa"2 : 157

9 9

9
9 9
, 9
9

, ?
:

(value

ading) (value ader)9


9 ,

(fair v

ue)9

9
9
9
,
9 el
9 9
9
FHi 9
9

158//
'/$uper1

ader:Makc c

nsistont P ntsin G

d and

Bad Markets

9 9

9 9
9

?
?
?
?
?
9
?
?
9 ?
9
?

1. 9 9

(price/ea ngs ratios;P/E ratios)


Part2

: \159

2. 9 9 9
, 9

3. (
)

4. 9
5. , ,

1%( )

6. (niche)
9

7. 9 9

8. 9

:
9 ;
9 ( 2 5 6

7), / 9 9
9 9 10
15
, 9

9 ?

16 /
//$uper Trader:Makc c nsIs nt

Pronts in G

d and

Bad Markcts

9 ?
9 ?
? ?
?
9 ?
9 ?
9 :
9 ?
9
9
9

Part2

: 161

q
9 9

9 ,
9
,
9 FnB 9
9
9 9
9 ell
6 9

1. :

9
9 FoB
9
?
2. : ,

research,sUouisfed.org/pub|icaUons/revlew/O6/O7/KoUiko

pdf

Michael Alexande1StoCk Cydes Why SrOCks yyOn Bear MOney Markers over
rhe rvek Tv/ent/Years.Linco|n,NE

162

Unlverse,2O0O.

/ $uper1 ader:Makc

c nso nt

Plonts ln G

od and Bad Markcts

( 15 )

2000 9
2020 9 FoB 9

/
3. :

9
9 ,
/ 9 Foi Og
9
4. :

9 ,

Part2 :

163

elJ 9
,
19 9 9
2000 9
9 9
9
9

5. : 9

9 9

6. :

9
?

9
9 FoB

F ;
9 sO
1 9
(Alan Greenspan)
, 9

1 4/
//$uper t ader:Makc c

nsis nt Plo t$in

Good and Bad Markets

9 9
9 9

? 9

? 9 9 ,

9
9 (

) 9

9 1 9

(% rr, %o g S)9
9 1 2008 11 21

2008 11

njn,

hkur
}

pL

IEJ

s ond


9 9

(ETFs)

11 21


:





9

9 sO(

100)9 9

9 11 21 ETFs
ETFs
1 2008 ( 11 21


,
13 11 21

sO

,
?

166/'

/$uper Trader:Makc c

nsi ont Pronts i

G00d and Bad Markcts

2oo8 ( 13 )

11/07/08

os/zs/08

1O/31/08

os/,G/08

10/24/08

o5/O9/08

10/17/08

10/10/08

o 5/08

10/O3/O8

o B/08

o9/2G/08

oii/08

09/19/08

o0/04/08

o9/1z/08

03/2g/08

O9/06/08

os/21/08

o8/29/08

o3/10/O8

08/22/08

03/07/08

0B/1s/08

02/29/08

08/0B/O8

02/2s/O8

oB/01/08

02/15/08

07/25/08

02/0B/O8

o7/1g/O8

o2/01/08

07/11/08

o1/26/08

o7/00/08

01/1B/O8

06/27/08

01/11/08

os/zO/08

o1/00/O8

os/13/08

Part2 : \

167

: 9

2008 9 (

zO08 4 6 FHB )
,
9
:

(13 ) ,


,
100
9

ETFs9

ETFs ,


9
9 9
;

168/

//$uper TYader:Makc c nsistcnt

Pro sin Good and Bad Markets

1. 9 ?

2. ?

,
? ?
?

3. , ?
4. ?
5. ? ?
6. ?
7. ? ?
9 ?

Pa"2

169

,
9
,

170/
//$uper t ader:Make con $tctlt

Pr in

Good and Bad M s

9 9

9

9
9 9
9 9

? 9

,
9
9

(%

Dcy j jv

Pc,Jj jo zj g)

Van K,Tharp.7%e De n/e Gujde rO POs`

ng,Cary,NCH|TM,2OO8.
`on Sl

9
9

9 ?
9 ? ?
? 9
?
,
Foi
:

1.

, ,

2, Fmg 9

:?
3.

9 ?

4, ?
5, Pnz ,

:9
, ?
,
9

172/

//$uper Trader:Makc c

nsistcnt Pronts in G

d and

Bad Markcts

9

08 1 9 /
9 sO0
9 :
9 mll
9 ,
9
9 (benchmark)9
9
07 9
9 8%
9 % 9 8%
9

08 sO%

9
, 9


Foi
9

Pa"2 : \

173

2008 9 ,
9 9

9
,
9 9
9
9 9
?

174/

//$uper1 ader:Makc

nsis tlt

PI o

tsin Good and Bad Markcts

q ?J

'

9 9

DnlLv tAs s

TR

9 ? ?
?
?
9 ?
9 ?

Part2

: 175

9
9

:R

;R ; ;

( ); (sharpe rato);
; ;
; ; ; ;
F:B;
9 ?
( )9 9
9 9

176/

/$uper Trader:M ec n stmt Pro

sin Goodand Bad Mtaakcts

9 ?
,
, ?

, ?

9 ?

? :

08
9 9
9

Part2 :

\177 |

\ |
\|

q
9 ,
ell
9
9
9
9 9
9 9
9 9
,
9
9 Poi

1. 9 F

2. 1987
;

500 (S&P500)

%,
911 ,
9

178/

/super Trader:Ma

c nsistc Plont$in G odtnnd Bad M

qrkv

;
9

(World Trade Center)


: 9
9

=ll

3. 9
? 9
,

? 9

53 :

Pa

: \

179

?
9 9 ?
4. 9
,
9
9 9
9
5. / 9

6. ?

9 ? ? ?

9
9
9
,
9
Foi 9
9
9

180/

/'$uper TYader:Makc c

nsis nt Pm

tsin Good and Bad Markets


9

9
9 9 9
9

Part2 : \

181

9
8,0O0
13 9

IBM

? ?

S&P 9 9
9 9 9

? 9 ?

%9 9

9 ?
9 9


9 9 9

9
9

sO% 9
(

)9

9 9 9
9 9
9
9 9

182/

/ $uper Trader:Makc c

nsi$tcnt P

ntsin Good and Bad Markc

9
9
9
9 1o0
5,OO0 9
9 9

,
:
, , ,
9
9 ,

, 9
9 9
, , 9

9 9
9
9

,alJ

9
9
1 3 9
,

Part2. :

183

1. 9 9

? ?

9
2. 9 9
9
ell
3. 9
9

184/

/$uper Trader:Makc c ist tP,oRtsin

Good md Bad Markcts

9 /,J 9
9 , 9

Foi

9
9 ?
? ?
? ? ?
? ?
9
9 ?
? ?
( )

9 ;

Pa"2.

\185

9 9
? 9

9
, ?
9

9
? 9
? 9
? , 9 9
, ?

18

/$uper1 ader:Makc

nsl cnl Pronts ln Good and Bad Markets


Foi ?
? 9
? ?
Foi

? , ?
9 ?
?
? 9 S&P500 9
s&P sO0 9 S&P0
, ?
9
?

9 ?
? 9
( ntinuot1s ntrac

)?

, 9
, ? ?

9 ?

Part2. :

187

9
?
9 9 ,
9

? ?
?
? 9 i
?
9 ? 9

, ? ?
? C (general partner)9
? ? ?
9 9 ?
9 9
9 9
9

188/

' $uper TYader:M cc nsistont Plc,ntsin G

d and

Bad Markc,ts

q
1990 9 (
)
9 ,
: (businessman)9
(trader)
9 9
9
19 9 (Robe Kiyosaki)

(h nite Wealth) 9
(sharon Lechter)

9 (% s ow o J )

( )9
( ),

)Robert T K osaH,and sharon L,Lechte11%e Cash ow Quadran Rt Dad


G ide 0
a cia FreedOm,New

YOrk Warner Books,1998,

Pa"2. : \

189

)9

9
(system) ,
9 9

9 9
9
9 (1) 9 )

9 : ;

9
9
9
5,000 9 9
,

9
i
9
, : X9

190//
/$uper1 ader:Make

nsotcnt PlofIts in Good and Bad Markcts



9 9
: %
%9 20% 9


9 9

9 9
9
, (

),

Part2

: \

191

9 9
( )9
9
( )

9
9 9
,
9

9
9
9 ,


9
9
9
9
,
R
9

192/
/ $uper Trader:Mak

c nsistcnt P1 on in G

d and

Bad Markcts

9
9 9
9

9
? ?
?

i

,
9
9 9

, 9 9
9
, 9
9
9
, ,
9 9
9
F

, 9
9
9
9
9


9
9
9 9


9
9 9
elJ 9
9 9 FW
, elJ
9
/

194/
$uper1 ader:Mak

cnsistcnt P R

iu Good aBd Bad Mark

,
:
9

1. 9 9

?
2. 9 9

3. 9

? 9

196/

d and
//$uper T ader:Makc cc,n $tcnt Pronts in G

B Markc

, 9
?

4. 9 9

9

? ,


9
9
9
9 ?

? ,


(band ader)

9
9
9

9 9

5. 9
9

Pa

: \197

? 9

9 9
9
9 , 9

6. 9 9

R R ,R



9 ,
9

7. : 9
,
9
9 :
?
?

? ?

9 ?
8. : ,
9

198/
'/$uper Trader:Mak

c nsistcnt Pronts in Go

d and Bad Markcts

9 Foi
9 Foa 9 9
,
9

Part3

? ?

: \199

q
9 9

)9

9 9

owing): 9
(Trend Fo
9
9
9
9 9 9

(Fundamenta

Ana

ysis):

9 (
) 9
, , 9

9
9 9
9
10
9

200

//$uper Trader:Makc c

nsi$ nt

Pmnts ln Good and Bad Markcts

(Va

ue Trading):

9
9
9

(Band Trading): (
)
9
9 9

(Seasona Tendencies):
9

XYZ9

,
:

11 5 9 9

(Spreading):
9
12

9
9

(Arbitrage;

):

9 9
9 9
9
9 9
, 9 9
L 9

9
9 , ,
,

(lntermarket Analysis):
9

( ) 9

FHB
FHi 9
9
, 9
9
9
9
(There Is an Order to the niVerse):
, (1) 9(V
, (3)

202/
/$uper1 ader:Mrakc

c nsi nt

Pro tsin

Good and Bad Markc

9 9

,
9
9

203

Part3 :

: (William ONeil)

CANSLIM

CANsLIM?

9 : (Cuent quarterly ngs)


(Annud mings increases)
(New product,new management) (supply

and demand) (Leader or laggard)

)9
(Market direction) CANSLIM9
9CANSLIM

(hstitutional sponsorsh



1.

9 (Tu les)
, 9
9
2.

: 9

204/
/$uper Vader:Makc

L/

c n cnt

tsin Good and Bad Mark


P

3.

( )

( )9 (
)9

4. : 9 Fna9

9 9
9
9
5.

: 9

6. : 9
,
9

9 9
7.

: 9 (Arms hdex)

8.

: , s&P

50O9 ,

9. : 9
9
10.

: 9

9
9

q
9
:
9 9
9 9
,
9
9
9 9

20

(average true range) 9 ,

100 1% 9
100 F 100
(sIippage; : FoB

),


9
, 9
9
:
9 9

206/
//$uper ader:Makc

nsi, nt Plonts in G

d and

B Markcts

? 9

9 9

16 ,
(For ) 1961 9
, 9 ,
9 SO0 100
9
9 9
9 gOo 9

Part3

: \ 207

(Microsoa) (Berkshire Hathaw ) elJ


9 9
9

9 9
9
9 9 9
% 9 0
( %) 9 %
9 15 3.5R 9
700
:
, 09 9
(GE) 9
9
9 9
9
,
9

elJ 9
9

9 9
9
9 9

208/
/ $uper Trader:Makc c

n sls nt

Plo sin Good and Bad Mark

9

1. 9 9

9 9
i ,
(

S&P 0)9

2. ,
(

)
3. 9
9 9

4. 9 9
CNBc9

5. 9
6. ,
9

9
9 9

210/
//$uper Trader:Makc c

nsistent Pl o

sin Good and Bad Mark

9 9
9
9
9 9

9 9 , 100
9 9
9

9
9 9
,

9 (abort exit)
(proh-takhg exit)
9 zO 9
9 ,
9
,
9

Pa"3 : \211

9 ,
9
9 9
9 9
(
), 9

9 9 1R
9 : (1R )

(1R

9 9
9
,

9 zs% (
9 )
9 % 9 ell

9 lR
9 9
R 9

9
sO 9
9

212/
//$uper Trader:Makc c

n$istcnt Plonts in G

od and Bad Mar

10 9 , 2R
9 1
9

9 10 9
10R9 10

,1R

9 9 1R 9
1OR zs%9 7R
9 : , 7R9

1% 9 ?
7R9 R 9

7%

Pa"3 : \213

1. 9

2.
3.

4.
9
9 ,

9 9
9 9 4R
9 9

9
9
9
9

9 9

214/
//$uper Trader:Mak

c nsl$tont Plonts in G

d and

Bad Markcts

, 9
9 ell 9
9
, 4R9
9 9 3
1.6 9 9
9 9 9
0.5R , , 9
3.5R 9
10R

Pnrt3. : \215

9
9 9
9

9 9 :

,

9 9
9

9 ,

9
;

216/
/ $uper Trader:Mak

c ns tcnt

Plontsin Good and Bad M kcts

, 9


: 9


, , 9
Ts% ,

3O 9
FHi,
9

9 10 9 1R
9 R (risk)


10 9
9 4R 15 9

1.5R PHB 9
, 1R
110 ,

, ? 100 9
10 9 10R 9

Pa"3

217

(10-baggers) 9
, 10 100 9
9 10R
,
1R 10 9 1oo
9

10R 9

9 9
40O 10 9360

R ? , %R
: , R

? ?

9


:567 1,333 4
785 9 (
9 )
R 3-1
R 9

9 :
R

218/

/ $uper Trader:Makc c

nso
It

Plo

in Good and Bad M kcts

$678
$3,456

4,40R

($567)

$1,234

1,57R

($1,333)

($454)

9
R

R ?

9 0.68R

10O R

9
9 1.86R 9
9
, 0 %9 100
9 ; , 0 zs
9

220/
/ $uper T ader:Make c

nsistc

Ploats in Good and Bad Markcts

1. ( 9 )

2. ( 9
)
3.

4. ( 9 )

5.R ( 4 2 )
9
9

R ,
R

3-3

9 9

9
9

1R9

1R9

, 9

Pa

: \

221


9 ,
1R Foi : ,
?
, 1R
9 9

9 R
9
9 ?
,
9
9
9 ,
R 9
9
9

9
9
3-2 9 9
, % 9 1,OO0 9
9 1,000 , 9

222

/ $uper Trader:Makc c

ns

P,o6

in Good and Bad Malkcts

% 1R R
(

)9

9 %

9R

( 7)
9 ,
9 ,
1.5R
%9


9 2R 9
,
9

-
1

XC T

: 40O

44,375

100

550,0O

4O,688
40,188

100
10O

125,00

1,25

1,000

400,00

4,OO

1,000

20O,00

2,00

1,00O

275,O0

2,75

1,000

125
125
125

-156.25

-1.25

0,833

1906,25

15,25

0.857

-ss1.25

-4.25

O,750

125
75

-125 00

-1.00

0,667

150,00

2,O0

O,700

XC T

XC T

: 40O

XC|T

XC T

XC T

XClT

400

40O 40,375 10O


400 34,500 100

500

35.500
500 28,50O
8
XC T : 5O0 30.125
9
XC|T : 50O 26,625
10 XClT : 3O0 23,563
:

5,5O

1,000

Part3 :

\223

lJe (

400

1.25

28,000

12

XC T

4O0

30,000

1OO

13

XC T

961

26,297

240,25

14
15

XC|T 400 27,625


1O00 27,813
XC|T

100

-0sO.00
48O,50
-200.00

0,727

-4.50

0,667

2.00

0,692

2.00

-62.50

-0.25

0,643
0.6o0

-1.68

0,563

XC T

500

41,906
40.625

-12
88

17

125

31,25

O,25

0,588

18

XC T

500
300
500
300
300
3OO

42,0OO
37,563
38.496
35,125
34,O00
33,250

125
75
125
75
75
75

31.25

-0.25

0,556

16

XC|T 300

19

XC T

20

XC T

21

XC T

22 XC|T
23 XC|T

24

XC|T

30O 37.875 75
25 XC|T 4O0 29.188 100
26 C|T | 400 28,313 100
27 XC|T 400 29.484 100
28 XC T | 400 31,188 10O

29 XC T (z 100

35.063

25

O.00

0,0O

0,526

-60.55

-0.48

O,500

9,38

0,13

0,524

412 50

5.50

0,545

93.75

o1.25

0,522

-s7.50

0.50

0,500

175,00

1,75

0,520

200,00

2,00

0.538

-193.75

1.g0

0,519

-200.00

-2.00

0,500

-s7.50

-1.50

0,483

30

XC|T

0, 7

31

XC T

75,OO

0,75

O,484

125,00

1,00

0,500

125,00

1.00

0.515

40O 33,813 100


400 33,00O 10O
32 XC|T : 500 34,063 125
33 XC|T 50O 35.625 125
XC T

:
XC|T F
36 XC T :
37 ClT :
34

35

500

35,125

125

156,25

1,25

0,529

50O 35,563 125


500 33,875 125
600 32,188 150

187.50

1,50

0,543

281.25

2.25

0,556

262,50

1,75

0,568

224/

$uper t ader:Makc c

n nt

Plt, tsin

Good and Bad Markcts

lJe

--

38

XC T

39

XC|T
600 34.125 15O
XC T : 500 33,184 125

4O

450

34.0O0

112,5

84,38

O,75

0,579

150,00

1,00

0,590

69. 2

-1.36

0,575

3815.66

0.75

-4,50
-4.25
-2,00
-2,O0
-2,0O
-1,94
-1,63
-1,50
-1,36
-1,25
-1,25
-1.00
-O,50
-0.48
O,25
-0,25

Pa

: \\225

0,O0
0,13
0,25
0,75
0,75
1,O0
1,00
1,00
1.25
1,25
1,25
1,50
1,75
1,75

2,00
2,00
2,00
2,00
2,25
2,75
4,00
5,50
5,50
15,25

0,75

226/

//$uper t ader:Makc c

nsistcnt Pronts n.G


d and Bad Malkcts


R ,
(Secrets of the Masters Trading Game)
9
9

3-2 9
: 9

9 1R 9
1R9 R

R 9



9 100 200
9
9 R 9

part3 :

9 9 ,
9
1.

970% , 30%9

2. 9 R
1R ,
R :
,
,
3. 9
9

1 9 F9

9 9
30%9
9

228/
//$uper Trader:Makc c

nsistcnt Pmf

tsin Good and Bad Markc

4. 9 1R,
sO 9 sOR sO0
9 sO0R

5. 9
, 9
9
F 9
9

6. 9

9O%;

99%

1. , 9

2. 9 9

3. ( )9
( 9

100R)

Pa"3 : \

229

, 9
9
9
9
9
(low-ri ea) 9

, 9
:
,
9
9 ,


1. IFi ,

2.
Fg 9
9
3. ,

230/

/ $uper Trader:Makc c

ns s

t Plc, slIl Good and Bad Mark s

4. , , 9
, 1R

5.
9
9

9 9
9 9

6. 9 9

9 9

7.
/
9

9
9
8. ,

:
9
9. ,

Part3

: \

231


9 9 9

10. :
9 9

4R

9
9 9

232/

//$uper Trader:Makc c

n stcnt Pron

Go0d and Bad Markcts

q J
9 9
9 9
, 9
Foi
9
9 9
:
9 9
9

Part3 :

233


9

9
9
9
9
:
q

? 9 9

9 9
9 9
9 :

9 9
9 9

9 9

: 9
9 9

40 50% 9

9 9
9 ?
9 ,

234/

/ $uper Trader:Makc c

nsistcI

tP,onts iu G
d and Bad Markcts

9
9 9 9
9 9
9

,
: 9
9
9
,
9 ,
!


9
9
9 (1)
9 ) 9
9 9
9 9

(maximum verse

excursion9

MAE)

Part3

235

9
9 B ,
F

MAE 9 MAE
9 (1) MAE ,
9 ,
9 ) R 9
9
R
9
9
9 9
9 9 R
9
9 9
9

23

/'$uper ader:Makc

nsistcnt Prt,

sin Good and Bad Markts

q
9
9 9
9


9 9
9 ? 9 ?
9 ?

, ?
9 9
9
9 (

) 9

9 ?
9
FHB9 9
9
9 9
9 ?
: 9
9
,
9
`

9 9
9 :
, 9
9
9 9 ,

238

//$uper Trader:Makc c

ns s nt

Plo sin Good and Bad Markcts

9 ,
9
9 ?
?
9

? 9

Part3. : \

239

9
9
9 9

P

9
9
:

240/
' $uper

ader:Makc c

nsis n1Plostsin

Good and Bad M

kcts

9 ,
?
, 9
9

FoB 9
Foi

9
?
( ,
)9 ?
9
?
9
?
9
?
9 9
9
?

?( )

Part3 :

9 (
) ?
9
?
?
?
9
9 9

? (1)

9(V 9


9
9
9 9 9
9 9
, 9


9
,
(

9 ?

242/

//$uper t ader:Makc c

nsistcnt P

in

Good.

nd Bad Markcts

..

..

..

..

..

..

'

9
( %%
, ),

l+

, 100%
FnB
9 9
R
9 : ,
1
9 ,
9 (Holy Grail) 9

0,1G-0,19

0,20-0,24
O,25-0,29
O,30-0,50
0,50u0,69

O,70

244/
/'$uper T ader:Makc c

nsis nt Plc,itsln Good and Bad Markcts

:
0.75 9 ,
9 0.5 9
, 9

, (system

Quality Number;sQNTM)9
9 i
9
0.7

R R

9 0.49

30R 9 R ,
,

9
, ,
(

)9

,

9
9
9 9

Pa

2J,s

08 7 10
12 9
9 1.59
9
9
2

1,O00%9

R R

1.53( )9

,
9
9
9
9
9

107 (15,3)

$13,688,14

$2,234,472,78

100

103(1,305

1/ (standard

246/

//$uper t ader:Makc c

nsi cnt Plo

in

)( 30%

Good and Bad Markc,ts

bts)ls1O0,00Ol

91(1,09O
12(215
6,7( 0,96

$2,232,875,93

$12,091,29

$2,22O,784,64(

$130,50O,0OO

1,70%)
%
%

88,3%( 40%)
11.7%
12,0
17,9

$24,537,10/

$1,007,61/

$2,O48,51/

$56,2

FEs( ) ,

3,66

9,89

184,7( :)3,0)

24,4( :)2,0)

(R
)

55,344,1%

32
2
1,53

Pa

\247

248

$uper Trader:Makc c nsis nt Pltb tsln

Good and Bad Ma

cts

1 Ji

9
,
9 40%9 lFi
39%,
9
(asset allocation)
1991

(G

Brinson)

cj JA s J Jo r cJ)

82

91% 9

9 9 9


Stanley

s Globd Wealth Manageme11t Group)

(Morgan

(David Darst) 9

o Ga BHns n,BHan s nge1and Gi|bert Beebowe1 Determinants of Portfo|io


Performance
nanc A alysrs Jouma`47 4 9,May-June
1991,

".An Update,

Pa


\249


9 CNBC (Jim

Cramer)

: 9

elJ
?
9 Foi

?
( ) ?
( ) ?
9
9 ,

, 9
:

9 i

9s% 100% 9 OO

02 08

o Davld Darst, steing rhe Art f sser Al/Oca

rOanag ng

o r

R`sk a d Opr`ming Refums,New Y0rk

250/
d and Bad Markcts
/'$uper Tlrader:Makc consistcnt Prt,msin G

COmpre e Jve ApprOaches

McGraW-Hi",2OO7

9


9S&P sO0
, fFi
9
i

gll (market makers)


9 9 9
i 9
10 9
F9
9
9

9
9

20%

10R9 9TO% 1R9


10% 5R ?

Alan Greenspan,The Age of Tt/rbu/enc Adyenrures a Neyy yyrld.NeW YOrk

Penguin,2007,

Pa

251

9 9

zO% 9

R , 0.8R
9 0.8R 9
9 0.8R R
9 R
9 80 9
R,

R 1%

)9

64q;

, 9

9 R
9

10 9 sO
3

10 R
,

12 9 10
14R 10 9 4 ,10
sOR sO R9 sO 9

+8R9

0.8R

9 9
9 1

R , (

252

//$uper Trader:Makc c

nsistcnt Plonts in Good and Bad Markcts

30 R

1-1R

11-5R

21-1R

2-1R

12-1R

22-1R

3 R

13-1R

23+10R

4-5R

14-1R

24-1R

5 R

15-1R

25+1OR

6+1OR

16-1R

26-1R

7-1R

17-1R

27-1R

8-1R

18-1R

28-5R

9-1R

19-1R

29+10R

10 10R

2O-1R

30+10R

+8R/J\

-14R/J\

+3OR/J\

30

(%)

Bo

4.73

Part4.

253

)30

) 0.8R
9

? ,

5 9

)9

12

9 100 100 9

33 9
9
9 9
( )

100

, 9

9 9

9
982
9

91%

9 (

)
9

254/

$uper Trader:Makc c

ns I tP1ontsin

God and Bad M k s

(
4 ) 9 F9fi
9
:

9 9
,

9
9

Pa"4

\255

9
9

? 9

9 9
9

9
,

256/

/'$uper t ader:Makc c

nsis nt Plonts in G

d and

Bad Markcts

? 9 i
(cash9
C

C) CPR
9 1% ,C

1% 50,000

1%, sO0

9C

CPR(

Part4. \

257

( )?

P9

( sk)

R9

50 9 5
(R) 5

9
9

P=C/R

1 50 9 5
3O,000 2% ,
?

1:R=5 / ;C 0,000 2%9

0 P 0/5= 0 9sO 9
120 6,0O0 9
10%( ss
600

)9

2 30 9
30 9 40,0OO

0.5% ?

258/

//$uper t ader:Makc c

nsi$ nt Proats i G

d and

Bad Markcts

R=30 C 0.005 40,000


2
zO0 P

20O/O

3 6 666

30 19,9S0
3 9
sO0 9
? 5,000
6 sO ?
3:R 5,000 =$1,000

=ssOO P ssOO/$1,0009 0.5


Foi 9

4
1.4 7 9 1
9 9 9
20O,000 9 2%
?

4: R 0.00789

100,000 9 780

(C) 200,000 2%9 4,000

9 4,000

7809

5.1 9 5

Pa"4. \259

9 F,
'''

l% ,lR l%
9 100,0O0 9 1,000

5 9

0 25 9
, F l%

9 100,000 9 l,000

)9

( 4

l%, 0

1% 9 980 9 F

1%

4 3 9


1%

1OOO

1OO,OOO

98O1O

980,1

97O29,9

97O,299
921.7841

92178.41

260

1%

$uper Trader: Iakc(

1cnt Ploh1`m(iood and Bad

1al kc1`

R
-1
-1

98O1O

-1

97O29,9
92178,41

97256,62

~ 1% (

1%

91256,62

912,5662

1O

100382.3

1OO382,3

10O3,823

-1

99378,46

99378,46

993,7846

-1

98384,68

98384,68

983,8468

-1

97 OO,83

1O

107140.9

974OO,83

1O

974,O1

1O714O,9

1O71,41

1O1783,9

1O17,84

-1

10O766

1OO7,66

-1

99758,37

99758,37

997,58

-1

9876O,78

9876O,78

987,61

-1

97773,18

977,73

-1

96795,45

96795,45

967,95

-1

95827,49

95827,49

958,27

-1

94869.22

948,69

-1

9392O,52

1OO766

97773,18

94869,22

13

16

19

1O1783,9

9392O,52

939,21

92981,32

92981,32

929,81

92O51,51

92O51,51

92O,52

9773O,99

9113O,99

911,31

1O

1OO244.1

1OO244,1

1OO2,44

-1

99241,65

99241,65

992,42

1O

109165.8

1O9165.8

1O91,66

-1

1O8O74,2

1O8O74,2

1O8O,74

-1

1O6993,4

1O6993,4

1O69,93

101643.7

1O16,44

1O

111808.1

1118,O8

1O

122988.9

1118O8,1

3O

7O76 3.7

Part4

261

, 9 9

zR

z%

zz 99%,

9

9
9

91,130

99 9

9 %

1%

9 R9
% 1%9
9
, ,
9 9
9

262/

/$uper Trader:Makc c

n stcnt

Prontsin Good and Bad Marh

F
9 FHa

( re equity method)
(totd equity method) (reduced total

equity memod)

9
9
9 9

Pa

\268


50,000 9

10% 9 9
5,O00
,000 4,500

9 40,sO0
4,050 9 , 36, 0
9 36, 0 9
9
9
9

,
9
9 9
9
9
9 9
,000 9 15,000
7,000 9 2,000

9 ,O00

264//
/ $uper Trader:Makc c

nsi$tcnt P ntsi

Good and Bad Marke

9
9 9 9
9
L

9
9 F sO,O00 5,000
9
(

) ,000

9 9
3,000 50,OO0
3,O00 9 ,000
9 1,000
,OO0 9 9 3,000
9
9
9 9
9 9

(reduced c re equity method) lBl
,

Pa"4 265

9
9
9
CPR
9 ,

1. : 10,000 1OO

9 10,000
2. / : 100,0OO
( )
3. : 9 9

Van Tharp,TP,e De n` ye Gu`de rO POs


and t/se POs` O

n Sizingf Ifovy rO Eya/uare YOur sysrem

Sizng rO Meer your Oc yeS,Ca NC,|lTM,2O08,

2 6'/

/$uper Trader:Makc c

nslstcnt Pl on

lt

d and

Bad Markcts

4. : ,

5. :
6. (Po folio heat): 9

7. :

8. (Equity crossover model):

9. :
9 10%
10. : 9
9 ;

11. : (Ryan Jones)

9

1z

(Two-tier position sizing):

1%

9 9

13. (Multiple~tier approach):
14. (sc out): 9
15. (scaling in):
16. f(optim

f):

Pa

\ 267


17. (Kelly criteron):
,
18.

(Basso-Schwager asset

allocation): FoagT 9

s money) ( ):
,

19.

(Market


zO

9

9
?

268

//$uper ader:Makc

nsistcnt P

tsin

Good alld Bad Mar

9
9

9 9
9 9
9 9

0.8R
( 100 ) : 9 2
9 30 9 100,000
sO,0O0 9 5 9 9

13 ,
sO 9 9 0
9 9

9
; 9 9

9 (1)
; )

Pa

;o)

269

;(4) 9
(payof)
9

1, , 9
( 9 )

2. 9 2
3, 9 7
4. , 7
5. , 2
6.
7. 7 9
8. 2 9
9. ,
9 ,
elJ 9
9
10 9
9

10 9 9


100 9 9

270/

//$uper1 ader:Makc

l'

n stcnt P

ntsin Good and B Markc

9 100 9
9 9 9
9
9
9

Pa"4

\ 271

s1z1ng

27,/
//$uper T ader:Makc c

n s nt

Prontsin Good and Bad Markcts

sO
0.1%9 50 9

0.2%, 0.3%9 ,

0.1%9 19%

5R 9 % 9
19%
50
9 (

35%)

9 9
9
5

9 9 10R
9

35% 9

19% 9 1,"0%

1.1%

100%9 98.7%

9 9

175%9

5%
gO 3% 46.3% 9

9

100% ?

Pa

273

(optimal Retire) , 2.9%


9 46.6%
.9%9 31%

(%)

1O,7E+3

-72,4E+O

98,7

19,O

46,3

27.5

175,OE+O

80,3E+O

46,6

31,O

193,4E+O

77,9E+O

(1%

1O,5

O8

43,2E+O

37,OE+O

O9

O,O

27.1E+O

24.6E+O

O6

93,8E+O

64,OE+O

)0%

37,9

lFi (

35%) 1 ?

, i 0.9%

10.5%

0.8%

0% ,
0.6% 0%9 100%
, 1.7%
9 9 100% 35%

7%

9 37.9% 9

11

l%

26.8% 9

274

$uper Trader: ldkc(1

n l`|cnl Pl1

fi1`in(i()od11n1H nd\larkc1

15%
:

100% 35%

9 9

1% 1,000% ,
9 1% 100%

? : /

9 9
?
:
,

Pa 4

`275

R , 9
R 9
9

R 9 9
9

R F:B FHB

(te1 oral

dependence; ) 9
, 9
(

1R),

9


9R
9
, 9
9 9
9

9

276/
$uper Trader:Mak

c nsistcnt Pl o

sin Good dB Mark s

20R)9 R

( 9 ) ( )
, 9
9

-1

R 9
( ) R

),

9
, 9
9

R FHi

R R

,
9 9
9

9(1)
9 9 )
9
9

Part4

\\277

Fo, 9
(SQN) SQN ,
9sQN 9
9 9

9R

1.5

9 :
9

91,30O 0 9 9

9 31
( 9s 9

)9 sQN,

1. R
2.

sQN
3.

sQN

9 9

278/
' $uper T

ader:Makc c

ns

nt

Pronts in G

od and Bad Markcts

, 9 (

0.169 1.7%
9
0.35% , 5%

Part4

\279

q
9 ,
9
9 ,

9

, 9 9
,
9

ss(KEEP

Ts

MPLE,SAM;

n82'/

//$uper t ader:M cc nsi$tcnt

Pron in G
d and Bad Marke

9 ) !


9 9
9

,

9 1%
9 9

9 ,
J 9 9
FRB Foz
9 , 9
9

9
?

, ,
(

)9


9 9
9 9
9
110

Pa

glJ \283

(channel breakout) 9
, , 9
9 1%
9 9
9
9
9 9

284/
/$uper Trader:Mak

c n cnt P

in Good and Bad Marke

q
(judgmental heuHstics)

9
(

) ,

9 9
9 9

Pa"5. gll

285


9 9
9 9
(shortcu 9

9 ,

: 9
(emcierlt market)

9

9
, 9 (behavioral
nance) FoB :
9

? 9
9
9
9 9

5% 9
%9

50%9

100%9 ?

/
28/$uper
t

ader:Makc c

nsistc

P,ontsin Good and Bad Markcts

R 9 ( )


0.8R 100
9
,
elJ gOR

1% 9

100%(1%

100%9 gO% )
9

9 9

4R
9 9
8R 9
Tg

100% ,

9 (

)9 SOR R9

32R 9

9

9 9

5%
9 ; 9
9 gOR 9

Pa"5

32R9

glJ \287

%
60%9

SO%9

9
,

q 1

~%

FoB
9 9
H

,
9
9
9
9 9 9
,
9

S&P500

, 2R
10R 9

? 9

100R
,
5,000
9 9
9
5

,
40%
9 9
% 9 %
9
gll

32%

SO%9

? 9

5%9 ?

75% 9
9 Ell
9 ,
9

9

R

290'/
//$uper t ader:Make c

n$lstent Pron

in G

d and

Bad Malkcts

9
9

9 0%
9

70R

1% 9

TO% 3%9
200% 9

9
9
R9

%%

15R

9

45R9

810R
9 9

1, 0R
9 9
? 3,240R

4, oR

Pn"5

glJ \291

90%9 (
9 )?

zO%, 5,S32R
9 9
sO%

? ,

9
?

9 9
9

292/

/'$uper t ader:Makc c

nslstent Pl o

ts i

Good and Bad Markcts

q
9

70%

, 9 %
9

9
9

9

50% 9

, 9

: 9
B : 9


9

9

1.

2. 9

3
`

glJ

2\

Pa

3. 9

4. 9
,

5. 9 9
; 9
' 9


Fn

294/
//$uper1 ader:Makc

nsi$ nt Pronts in G od and Bad Markc

9
9 9
9
9 9

9
9 ,
9
9 9
9 9
,

glJ

Pa

9 9

296

$uper t ader:Makc c

nsistc

Pro si Good and Bad Markcts






9 ,

F

9


9

9 ,
,
9
R

2R9
9 4R9

9 9
+2R

9R 9 9
,

PaH5 glJ

297

9 11 9 46.5R
9 1.2 9

zsR

9 9 50%
9 %9 70%
?
F 9 ETFs9
9 9 8.2R
9 9

9 ,

, 9 9
0.3R ,
31R(

3O%) 9

39.2R 9 %
?

298/
//$uper t ader:Makc c

nsistcnt P

sln

Good and Bad Markcts

FoB :
9 ?
F9
, 9
9
,
9 9
9 9
9

9
9 9
,
9 9
9 9

9 08
9 9

9
9 fFm
9

Pa"5. glJ \ 299

9 ?
? ,
? 9
, Foi :
9 ? elJ 9
,
9
, 9
? 9O%(

) 9S%(

)9

300/
d and
//$uper T ader:Makc c istcnt Pronts in G

Bad Mar

9

9Foi :
? 9 9
9 9
9 Foi
:

?
Foa 9
9
, 9

9

zO% sO%

9
Foi ,
9

9
9
Foi 9
9 Foi 9

1, 25

25%

2. 40

37

3, 25,000 9

1% ?
4, 1 3 , ?
5. 9 38 ,

50

302/
//$uper Trader:Makc c

nsistcnt Pro

tsln Good and Bad Markcts

1% ,

6. 9
9 3

7, 50 ,
?

8: ?
?

9. 9
( Fna

)?

10. ?

: sO 9

? 9

Pa"5 glJ

\303

1.

0.759

18.75

%9 9
Ts%

10

2. % 9 ell (
9 )9
%9 9
9 Ts%9
9 10

304/

$uper T ader:Makc c

nsis tlt Pic,nts in G

dand Bad Ma s

3. ,0O0

1%9

10
4.

zs (zs0 )

, 40

10

5. , 0
sO0

sO

10

9 0 9 3 9
g3.33333333 9 g3

6.

1%

10

7. 9

10

83 50 9

41.50

9 41.50

8. 9 9

250 9 25 40 9

1,0O0 %9
zs%

sO0 9 19,0O0 9

83 , 3,154 9
,

( )

25 )

) (
)

Pa"5

gll \305

9. 10
10. 10

: sO , zs

? 9

? sO 9
6 9 4R
10 9 110


k ,k ,F

100 9

gO 99 9
9

60 79 B9
F

9 9
59 9

9
9 sO
9

q
www vantharp m9
,
9 9

:

9 9
,
9

?
m
www tharptraderte

9
R

:The Van Tharp Institute(Intemational hstitute of Tr ing Mastery,Inc )


:102 A Co11monwea1th Cou Cary,NC275
:919-466-0O03or8O0-385- TM@ 86)
:91 O/+OB
:info@iitm. m

Pa"5 glJ

307

gorithm( ): 9

Arbitrage( ): i 9

F

ocation( ):
fFm (lotto uas) 9

Asset a

( ) 9
9 -^d9 (position
sizing)
Average true range TR9 Fo,): X

;(V
; o
Band trading( ): 9
:(1)

9 ( )9
( )9

Bearish( ):
Breakout( ): ( nsolidation)
Bu

ish( ):

Commodities( ): 9

Contract( ): 9
5, 0 (bushels)

100 (ounces)

Discretionary trading( ): 9

,
, 9 o

):
Diversification( ): 9
Divergen (

so8/

' $uper Trader:Makc c

nsis nt Plo tsin

Good and Bad Markcts

Drawdown( ): 9 (
1 ), F
Entry( ): ,

Equal units model( ): ,



Equities( ):
Equity( ): F

Exit( ): 9

Expectancy( ):
9
R R
ter( ): , 9

Fi

Financial freedom( ): ,
(passive income9 elJ ) 9
9 4,000 ,
4,3 9
FIoor ader( ):

(locals) F9 ( t brokers)

Forex( ,Foreign exchange): gll


9 9 i
9
FundamentaI analysis( ): 9

, 9

Futures( ): , FHg,
9
9


Ho

y GraH system( ): ,

9 9 9
: , 9 9
9

309

lndicator( ): , ,


lnvesting( ):
9 9 , (tading)

Leverage( ):
, 9

Liquidity( ):
9

Long( ): 9
(sho )

Low-risk idea( ): 9
9
MartingaIe strategy( ): ,

9
Maximum adve e excursion(MAE, ):
,
ading( ): 9
9

o
Mental rehea a ( ): 9 9
Mechanica

ing( ): ( )
9
Money management( ): ,
9 9
Mode

(l) ;(2) ;(3) ;rzI)



Negative expectancy system( ):
9
9

inguistic programming(NLP, ):

( chard Bandler) (John G nder)


Neuro-

310/
/$uper t

ader:Makc c

nsistcnt Plt,Rtsin Good and Bad Markcts

o
NLP 9
9

(Van Tharp hstitute)


9 9
oppo unity( ):

( ade

opponunity)

me( ): glJ
Peak-to-trOugh drawdown( ):
Passive in

, gll ,
Percent risk model( ): ,


Percent voIatility mode|( ):

F:B(average tme
range)
Position sizing( ):
,
, 9
9
Positive expectancy( ):

R R
Prediction( ): ,
I 9
,
; ; ):
`earnings(P/E,ratio(

9 9 1
9 zO (S&P sO0)
Pri

17

R-mu tip e(R

):

(initial risk)

(R) 910R
10 9 10 9100
10R 9

( ) 9

311

R-va

ue(R ):

Random( ): 9

): 9 9 %
%
Reward-to-risk mtio( ): F (
Re iabi

ity(

) 9
39

Risk( ): FEs
9 zO ,
18 9 2 9
,
(v ability)

Scalping( ):

( oor

traders) 9

9 (b prices) (ask p ces),


( )9
( )
Seasonal trading( ): ,
9 ,
(
) :
( ) ( )
9 9

Secu|ar(buH or beaO market

Setup( ): 9 9
,

CAN sLIM

( llia1n ONeil)
Short( ): o ,
9 ,
(sho ng e market)
Sideways market( ):

SIippage( ): 9 9
, 15 9 15.5 9

312/

/ $uper t ader:Makc c

nsis nt PloEts in Good and Bad Markcts

Specu

ating( ): 9

Spreading( ): ,
9 9

Standard deviation( ):
9 9
Stop stop oss,st0p order)
( )

, 9 (market order)
( )9 9
, 9

,
? , ,

Support( ): 9

Sw ng

trading(

):

System( ): (1)

,(2)

9( 9 , ) 9
S)

R o
Trade distribution( ): ,
,
Trade oppo unity(

): fEl

Trading( ): 9

9

Trading cost( ): 9
gll (market maker)

Trai|ing stop( ): 9

\313

Trend folIowing( ): 9
, ,
):
9 ,
,000 ( 100 )
Validity( ):
Uni per fixed amount of money modeI(

? ?
uation( ): 9
(vdue tading)

g 9 9
Va|ue trading( ):
Va

o :
zO 9 15
,

Volati|ity( ): 9 Fol

9 9 9
,

314/
/ $uperader:Makc

nsistcnt Pro $i Good and Bad Mark

You might also like