STAT 4714: Homework 4 (Solution) 1, Geoplysicists determine the age of a zircon by counting the number of uranium fission tracks on a polished surface, A particular gircom is of such an age that the average mumber of tracks per square centimeter is five. What is the probability that a 2-centimeter-square sample of this zircon will reveal at most three tracks, thus leading to an underestimation of the age of the material? A’ basic unit > Ca 2°. determine A= £/ Cw 3°. determine S = >ow? 4° Let X represents the # of tracks a > cm Sample will reveal. Then, X~ Prison (2g) = Poisson C10) Plxeo) + Pox=iy + Pox=a) + Prxe3) - P(x <3) ee ° ey cua ated Cate lo ee Cem eeu Co) o! 0 > 3 a2, Production management is interested in how many lines are running at any ssiven time rather than which lines are running. Suppose there are two lines in total. Let ¥ be the number of lines running at any given time. From historieal data, we know the probability distribution of Y as in the following table. y[o 4 Fy) [007 | 02s (1) Calculate the moment generating function (mgf) of Y; (2) Use moment generating function (mgf) to derive the mean and variance of ¥; (3) Suppose the repairing time (in hours), 7, for the produetion lines is a function of Y, which is T = ¥ +0.5. Then what's the moment generating function of T? (4) What's the 3rd moment of T? poke ES $5) sac Beate Solution : (0 My to E(e%) ee ef ta = eon 4 Chase + C07! ool + o.2¢e% + azre* © eh= ame se | a= beet + 142e*[,_, -ET] t) ely] = Litas eon D284 ame*T] = Buz wel] = ell - AA = 32-17 <5 @ mw= eh Meo Ot pope 4 ape 2 " = pale @® efi = sine) voces oare ame | : = 22 es ee = fo] ost + 0630" "4 aazpre” ie a eres pgace Ms ope |,3. Consider the funetion Sle) =kr2<2<4 (1) Find the value of k that makes this « density for a continuous random, variable. That is find & so that f(2) is a legitimate pal, (2) Find £[X), E[X4] and VariX]; (3) Find P25 < X $3], PX = 25), P25 < X <3}. by direct integration; (4) Pind the closed-form expression for the cumulative distribution fiction (caf F; (6) Use F to find each of the probability of P[2.5 < X < 3]. Is it equal to the answer you got in part (3)? olution: > Tn order “for ft te be a (eqrtinate @ Ex = [2 sfr0 ob = [Sxedede = #23) _ By 6 la > PH a 2% ftoa be ={2 ae. yx ob xed xe =i ya 6) PBSexea] = [? Yond = Lae x= P ie=2:57 =fo] Pl2ofU () Pr2texes) > Fo - Fen ECW- Sery 4 ~ 2p bik is tHe some to thor I got in part @) "4. Suppose continuous random variable X ~ Unif(a,b). That is, the probabil- ity density function of X is eee fe)= Lact (2) Derive the cumulative distribution function (df) of X. (2) Derive the mean and variance of X; (3) Derive the moment generation function (mf) of X. Solution = Z © Foo= [fr at OW ~b, ther Fu =} @ EX= [8x -fo0 dx = ifs % he Xe | x=b a bees (balan a — Bee _ at, ~ 2>(b-a@) EX = [5 fone Pe ae. ae preb ip Ba & ~ 300 |xea iol ee 3b~-0) 3 Dee teen ow VX = EX* &y) Saabs Y _ (axb) = au0 @® Mw E*] = [. e* 4m oft sata, 2) ee Ge oS = femaiow tlb-a) *5. Textbook Page 139: Exercise 6 of Chapter 4 © PR bird will orient Within. 2/4 radians) OD Pe( bird wail oriert within 24 radians) ~ [Eka bo = 4, © Yes, 1 cowld suspect because Pol at lease 7 ome y (0 birds ate offers wtthin 7/4. reglans) = (GY G+ () wer + Cera +) a" ~ 40S x oF 8 is extremely small § “this Smell probebility evere peppers, I ould suspect the coil are not alzoriemt.6, Textbook Page 141: Exercise 14 of Chapter 4 Solwtim: fx = Fly ® 1, -l B) = 1- FR = oF x opee:8, Textbook Page 145: Exercise 40 of Chapter 4 Solution Xv NMP, 0.29) _ ew? w= a he Fao © hy Cet? =a! ge Lo, o# Peon 02 fa Pr(thexetg) = A (AGE Xe < ts, = P(-2<2 <2) x 09 o (x cop = Rh xis a oft y = ACS <~2) © 0.0012 © R(x >20) = A(Xat 5 20-Lt) on “ = Rl2> 25) 0. 0062 Sine ~the ovcutti Probelilry is extramely small, J cond be surprised if les thing Aappens (). Sime PC X>129) v0.0. Prine [ize 97cm fas “the, property © Mw= e™* sete ett oort®9, Textbook Page 147: Exercise 47 of Chapter 4 Plu-wex cute = PREM. XU, wow) w P(-1< 2<1) X 0.841% - 0-187 = 0.64% P(u-2 ) ® 0972 — 0.0228 = 0.F6ky Plu-3ve X I BX o.B8P The rests are Consistent - Given horney distiibited , hotmal probatilieg rule giles 0 stronger Statement.