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2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved.

Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.

August 6, 2010

RETAIL (SPECIAL LINES) INDUSTRY

The outlook for The Retail (Special Lines) Industry remains mixed. With summer in full swing
and the back-to-school season under way, many
retailers are still struggling to generate sales in a
soft consumer spending environment. As we transitioned from spring to summer, comparable store
sales (which measure sales performance at stores
opened for at least a year) fluctuated from month
to month. A lucky few saw improvement, with
sales declines easing or, in some cases, comps
trending into positive territory. The Industry has
managed to remain in the top quartile of all sectors tracked by our Timeliness Ranking System,
with several names that stand out for year-ahead
price performance. Still, there may be some turbulence ahead, especially since shoppers are likely
to continue spending judiciously amid a slow economic recovery. Longer term, however, investors
should find some worthwhile buying opportunities here, based on good upside potential.
Bleak Economic Data
No doubt, against a difficult macroeconomic backdrop,
many consumers have continued to limit discretionary
purchases. While some parts of the economic picture
suggest the recovery is well in progress, other areas
seem to indicate otherwise. High unemployment, a
shaky housing market, and tight credit are among the
major factors that continue to weigh on consumers
minds (and pockets) these days. A look at consumer
confidence (a key metric that gauges the publics sentiment on the economy and its direction) tells a similar
story. Indeed, after rising steadily for a couple of months,
hitting 62.7 in May, the Consumer Confidence Index fell
to a revised 54.3 in June, and receded further in July, to
50.4 amid increasing concerns over the state of the
economy. Heightened consumer pessimism regarding
the short-term outlook seems to mostly reflect worries
over persistent job-market weakness. (For comparative
purposes, we note that a reading of 90 or above suggests
the economy is stable; anything exceeding 100 denotes
strong growth.)
Consumer confidence is closely observed because it is
correlated to consumer spending, which accounts for
about 70% of GDP. The latest reading was clearly
disappointing, and it suggests that retailers will probably face a tough back-to-school season. Until the job
market improves and business conditions get better,

2165

INDUSTRY TIMELINESS:

19 (of 98)

consumer confidence (and, hence, consumer spending)


are likely to remain tepid. That, in turn, might stall the
economic recovery in the U.S. A weakening global
economy, due to the debt crisis that is unfolding in
Europe, could further exacerbate the situation.
Weathering the Storm
To be sure, the effects of the latest recession continue
to be felt throughout the retail sector. While boosting
business has been a challenge overall, a few members in
this group have managed to cope fairly well in these
tough times. Despite ongoing sluggishness in consumer
spending activity, these merchants seem to be better
positioned for the near term.
Aeropostale is one such standout. Customer traffic has
been quite brisk at this teen-apparel retailer, thanks to
its value-priced, yet trendy, casual clothing. The chain
has been a hit so far, grabbing market share from rivals,
American Eagle and Abercrombies Hollister. And
chances are it wont do too shabby during the back-toschool period. However, given that the core brand is
maturing and the teen market is on the decline (according to industry data), the retailer is focusing on a new
growth opportunity. Its newly launched concept, P.S.
from Aeropostale, should be a success, as it targets kids
ages 7 to 12, a growing demographic.
Coach is another retailer that has continued to shine.
This upscale accessories makers strategy to lower price
points has gotten thumbs up from shoppers. To keep its
profits climbing, the company is looking to branch out
internationally. Expanding into Asia and Europe should
help to widen its market share in the coming years.
Conclusion
Although the Retail (Special Lines) Industry is timely,
the sector, as a whole, is not immune to the vagaries of
the economy. Admittedly, there are several retailers that
appear to be in better shape for the near term. But, by
and large, we think brighter days are in store for this
group over the 3- to 5-year time frame, assuming economic conditions are healthier by then. Even so, investors should peruse each stock individually before making any commitments.
J. Susan Ferrara

Composite Statistics: Retail (Special Lines) Industry

Retail (Special Lines)


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
206977 222668 225730 163189 172500 185000
37.4% 37.1% 36.5% 40.2% 40.5% 40.5%
10.8% 10.6%
9.7% 11.6% 12.0% 12.0%
61944 64815 68885 57311 60000 62000
10433.1 11015.1 8646.2 7457.3
7600
8100
36.6% 36.4% 38.7% 38.3% 39.0% 39.0%
5.0%
5.0%
3.8%
4.6%
4.5%
4.5%
28330 25573 25954 27774 29000 32000
11860 15892 17456 15224 15500 15500
56997 55764 53646 49527 51000 55000
15.7% 16.1% 12.9% 12.3% 12.5% 12.5%
18.3% 19.8% 16.1% 15.1% 15.0% 15.0%
15.5% 16.3% 12.5% 12.0% 11.0% 11.0%
15%
18%
22%
20%
27%
25%
19.1
18.7
17.2
14.8
Bold figures are
1.03
.99
1.04
.98
Value Line
estimates
.8%
.9%
1.3%
1.4%

Sales ($mill)
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield

13-15
225000
41.0%
12.0%
72000
10500
39.0%
4.7%
42000
15500
70000
13.0%
15.0%
12.0%
20%
18.0
1.20
1.0%

RELATIVE STRENGTH (Ratio of Industry to Value Line Comp.)


120
100
80
60

40

20

20 04

2 005

2 006

20 07

20 08

20 09

2 010

Index: June, 1967 = 100

THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

AMERICAN EAGLE NYSE-AEO


TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

5
3
4

High:
Low:

Lowered 8/6/10

13.0
6.5

RECENT
PRICE
10.4
2.6

14.3
5.6

10.1
3.3

14.9 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 15.0) P/E RATIO 0.80 YLD 3.5%
12.65 P/ERATIO 12.7(Trailing:
7.8
4.4

15.9
5.3

LEGENDS
13.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Lowered 7/30/10
3-for-2 split 1/98
BETA 1.05 (1.00 = Market)
3-for-2 split 5/98
2-for-1 split 5/99
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
3-for-2 split 2/01
Annl Total 2-for-1 split 3/05
Price
Gain
Return 3-for-2 split 12/06
Options: Yes
High
35 (+175%) 30%
Shaded area: prior recession
Low
20 (+60%) 14%
Latest recession began 12/07

22.7
13.0

33.0
14.8

34.8
20.2

23.8
7.0

19.9
8.3

19.6
11.4

Target Price Range


2013 2014 2015

3-for-2

Raised 8/20/99

VALUE
LINE
64
48
40
32
24
20
16
12

2-for-1

Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell

S
0
0
2

O
0
3
2

N
0
0
0

D
1
0
0

J
0
0
0

F
1
0
0

M
1
2
1

A
0
0
0

M
0
0
0

8
6
% TOT. RETURN 6/10

Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
131
152
160
to Buy
to Sell
175
151
138
Hlds(000) 163650 165851 156707

Percent
shares
traded

75
50
25

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Total Debt $17.5 mill.


LT Debt Nil

Due in 5 Yrs $17.5 mill.


LT Interest Nil

Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $242.9 mill.


No Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Pfd Stock None
Common Stock 205,421,259 shs.
as of 6/4/10
MARKET CAP: $2.6 billion (Mid Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
483.9
698.6
Receivables
41.5
34.7
Inventory (Avg Cost) 294.9
326.5
Other
105.1
107.2
Current Assets
925.4 1167.0
Accts Payable
152.1
158.5
Debt Due
75.0
30.0
Other
174.7
220.5
Current Liab.
401.8
409.0
ANNUAL RATES Past
of change (per sh)
10 Yrs.
Sales
17.5%
Cash Flow
19.5%
Earnings
16.5%
Dividends
-Book Value
24.0%
Fiscal
Year
Begins

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

5/1/10
544.3
39.6
326.4
135.7
1046.0
143.5
17.5
163.1
324.1

Past Estd 07-09


5 Yrs.
to 13-15
14.5%
3.5%
17.0%
5.5%
15.5%
9.0%
-5.0%
16.0%
5.0%

Full
QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.) A
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
612.4 703.2 744.4 995.4 3055.4
640.3 688.8 754.1 905.7 2988.9
612.0 657.6 748.9 972.0 2990.5
648.5 660
755
981.5 3045
675
700
800 1000
3175
Full
EARNINGS PER SHARE AB
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
.35
.37
.45
.66
1.82
.21
.29
.30
.19
.99
.08
.14
.21
.33
.76
.17
.13
.28
.42
1.00
.19
.23
.33
.50
1.25
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID E
Full
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year
.05
.075
.075
.075
.28
.075
.10
.10
.10
.38
.10
.10
.10
.10
.40
.10
.10
.10
.10
.40
.10
.11

(A) Fiscal year ends Saturday closest to January 31st of the following calender year.
(B) Diluted earnings. Excl. nonrecurring
gain/(loss): 03, ($0.11); 04, $0.08; 05, $0.03;

VL ARITH.
INDEX

-14.3
-50.4
-36.2

29.6
-8.6
24.0

VALUE LINE PUB., INC.

13-15

14.56 14.46 14.85 15.90


1.64
1.47
1.75
2.05
.99
.76
1.00
1.25
.40
.40
.43
.44
6.86
7.63
7.45
7.75
205.28 206.83 205.00 200.00
14.7
19.1 Bold figures are
Value Line
.88
1.27
estimates
2.7%
2.8%

Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh AB
Divds Decld per sh E
Book Value per sh D
Common Shs Outstg C
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield

18.25
2.60
2.00
.52
9.50
200.00
14.0
.95
1.9%

1093.5 1371.9 1463.1 1520.0 1881.2 2309.4 2794.4 3055.4


39.9% 39.9% 37.1% 36.5% 46.7% 46.5% 48.0% 46.6%
15.5% 15.2% 13.1% 11.5% 22.9% 23.2% 24.1% 23.2%
554
790
753
805
846
869
911
987
93.8 105.5
88.7
74.1 224.2 293.7 387.4 400.0
38.6% 37.7% 38.2% 38.6% 38.9% 38.4% 38.4% 37.1%
8.6%
7.7%
6.1%
4.9% 11.9% 12.7% 13.9% 13.1%
169.5 228.1 286.3 336.6 574.3 719.1 737.8 644.6
24.9
19.4
16.4
13.9
----367.7 502.1 577.5 643.7 963.5 1155.6 1417.3 1340.5
23.9% 20.2% 14.9% 11.3% 23.3% 25.4% 27.3% 29.8%
25.5% 21.0% 15.4% 11.5% 23.3% 25.4% 27.3% 29.8%
25.5% 21.0% 15.4% 11.5% 22.4% 21.8% 23.0% 23.8%
----4%
14%
16%
20%

2988.9 2990.5
39.3% 38.7%
14.5% 13.4%
1098
1103
205.0 158.6
31.0% 36.7%
6.9%
5.3%
523.6 758.0
--1409.0 1578.5
14.5% 10.0%
14.5% 10.0%
8.7%
4.8%
40%
52%

Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof

3650
43.0%
21.0%
1350
400
38.0%
11.0%
600
Nil
1900
21.0%
21.0%
15.5%
26%

BUSINESS: American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. is a specialty retailer of


mens and womens casual apparel, footwear, and accessories
targeting the 15-to-25 year old customer segment. The company
has 938 American Eagle retail stores in the U.S. and Canada (as of
5/1/10) which are located primarily in shopping malls. Also operates
28 MARTIN + OSA stores and 139 stand-alone aerie stores. Sold

Bluenotes chain in 12/04. 2009 depreciation rate: 10.4%. Has about


39,400 employees. Officers and directors own 10.2% of common
stock; BlackRock, Inc., 7.1% (4/10 Proxy). CEO: James V.
ODonnell. Chairman: Jay L. Schottenstein. Incorporated: Delaware. Address: 77 Hot Metal St., Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15203.
Telephone: 412-432-3300. Internet: www.ae.com.

American Eagle Outfitters had a respectable first quarter (ended May


1st) . . . Excluding a $0.12-per-share
charge
related
to
the
closing
of
MARTIN+OSA, share net was $0.17, a
penny above our forecast and more than
double the depressed fiscal 2009 figure.
Comparable-store sales increased 5%.
. . . but the company has struggled
since then. On the first-quarter call,
management indicated that business
trends were weak at the start of the fiscal
second quarter, leading to margin pressure. Consequently, the company issued
guidance that was well below our forecast.
This dour outlook was reinforced by May
and June sales figures, as comps
decreased 3% in May and 1% in June,
despite
relatively
easy
comparisons.
Promotional activity has been more aggressive than we thought it would be, due
in part to the fact that AEO entered the
July interim with inventory per square
foot up 15% year to year. In sum, we now
look for the company to earn about $0.13 a
share in the July period, on par with the
year-earlier figure.
At this point, however, we believe

that
the
upside
outweighs
the
downside. Inventory levels are likely to
be down by the third quarter, which
should help firm up margins in the back
half of the year. Cost-cutting initiatives
may also aid profitability. Meantime, the
company is buying back stock, which
ought to support per-share earnings. All
told, we think that the back half of the
year will be stronger than the first, resulting in an earnings rebound in excess of
30% this fiscal year.
Indeed, we think these shares are a
good selection for value investors
with long time horizons. The stocks
price has fallen sharply since our April
review, leaving it with an attractive P/E
ratio and above-average dividend yield
(which was also boosted by a recent 10%
increase in the quarterly payout). Additionally, the company generates an enviable amount of free cash flow, and the balance sheet is strong, with little debt and
nearly $545 million in cash.
Momentum investors, on the other
hand, may want to take a wait-and-see
approach with these untimely shares.
Matthew E. Spencer
August 6, 2010

.98
1.46
1.63
1.99
2.83
3.96
5.14
6.36
6.86
7.12
8.39 10.41 12.63 14.94
.08
.06
.06
.13
.30
.49
.55
.68
.65
.61
1.30
1.66
2.15
2.49
.04
.03
.03
.09
.25
.41
.43
.48
.41
.34
.99
1.26
1.70
1.82
----------.04
.19
.28
.38
.25
.29
.35
.45
.73
1.26
1.73
2.33
2.71
3.01
4.30
5.21
6.41
6.56
202.50 202.50 200.84 203.53 207.50 210.33 212.62 215.72 213.14 213.57 224.23 221.90 221.28 204.48
19.7
27.9
26.0
10.8
18.5
22.4
14.9
21.6
15.8
16.6
11.3
14.2
14.8
14.2
1.29
1.87
1.63
.62
.96
1.28
.97
1.11
.86
.95
.60
.76
.80
.75
----------.4%
1.0%
1.1%
1.5%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10

THIS
STOCK

08, ($0.13); 09, $0.05; 10, ($0.12). Quart.


EPS may not add due to rounding. Next earnings report due late August. (C) In mill., adj. for
splits.

3045
39.3%
14.5%
1085
205
35.0%
6.7%
650
Nil
1525
13.5%
13.5%
7.5%
43%

(D) Incl. intangibles. At 1/30/10: $11.2 mill.,


$0.05/shr.
(E) Divd historically paid in late Mar., Jun.,
Sep., and Dec.

2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

3175
40.0%
15.5%
1110
250
38.0%
7.9%
600
Nil
1550
16.0%
16.0%
10.5%
35%

Companys Financial Strength


Stocks Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability

A
45
65
55

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

ABERCROMBIE NYSE-ANF
TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

3
3
3

High:
Low:

Raised 10/2/09
New 11/20/98
Raised 7/16/10

BETA 1.10 (1.00 = Market)

2013-15 PROJECTIONS

Annl Total
Price
Gain
Return
High
80 (+115%) 22%
Low
55 (+50%) 12%
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell

S
0
0
0

O
0
0
0

N
0
0
0

D
0
0
0

J
0
0
0

F
0
0
0

M
0
1
2

A
0
1
2

50.8
21.0

RECENT
PRICE
31.3
8.0

47.5
16.2

33.8
15.0

36.6 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 15.0) P/E RATIO 1.33 YLD 1.9%
37.00 P/ERATIO 21.1(Trailing:
33.7
20.7

47.4
23.1

74.1
44.2

79.4
50.0

85.8
67.7

82.1
13.7

42.3
17.0

51.1
29.9

Target Price Range


2013 2014 2015

LEGENDS
8.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
2-for-1 split 6/99
Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
Latest recession began 12/07

128
96
80
64
48
40
32
24

M
0
0
0

16
12
% TOT. RETURN 6/10

Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
128
to Buy
to Sell
166
Hlds(000) 96021

4Q2009
159
147
85548

1Q2010
159
163
88509

Percent
shares
traded

75
50
25

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

The Abercrombie & Fitch brand was es- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
tablished in 1892 as a supplier of rugged 12.53 13.80 16.41 18.05 23.49 31.74 37.58 43.52 40.40 33.29 36.50 39.55
outdoor gear. In 1992, through the ex- 1.91 2.12 2.59 2.87 3.99 5.32 6.44 7.65
5.68
3.61
4.25
5.00
change of 43 million shares of Class B 1.55 1.65 1.94 2.06 2.50 3.75 4.59 5.20
3.05
.89
1.75
2.35
stock, Limited, Inc. repositioned the compa----.50
.60
.70
.70
.70
.70
.70
.70
ny as a more fashion-oriented apparel busi- 4.28 6.02 7.71 9.21 7.78 11.34 15.92 18.78 21.06 20.78 21.70 23.40
ness. On September 26, 1996, an IPO of 98.80 98.90 97.27 94.61 86.04 87.73 88.30 86.16 87.64 87.99 88.50 88.50
8.05 million shares of Class A stock was 11.6 18.5 12.8 14.0 14.6 15.8 14.1 14.9
16.9
32.9 Bold figures are
Value Line
sold resulting in an 84.2% ownership by The
.75
.95
.70
.80
.77
.84
.76
.79
1.02
2.20
estimates
Limited. Goldman Sachs led the spinoff on
----1.4%
1.0%
1.1%
.9%
1.4%
2.4%
May 29, 1998 issuing .01367 of an Aber- 1237.6 1364.9 1595.8 1707.8 2021.3 2784.7 3318.2 3749.9 3540.3 2928.6 3230 3500
crombie share for each Limited share.
43.6% 43.9% 44.7% 45.9% 50.2% 70.9% 71.0% 71.9% 73.1% 72.5% 73.0% 73.0%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10
Total Debt $70.6 mill. Due in 5 Yrs $70.6 mill.
LT Debt $70.6 mill.
LT Interest $6.0 mill.
(4% of Capl)
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $324.3 mill.
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Pfd Stock None
Common Stock 88,209,172 shs.
as of 6/4/10
MARKET CAP: $3.3 billion (Mid Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
522.1
712.5
Receivables
53.1
90.9
Inventory (FIFO)
372.4
310.7
Other
137.2
121.8
Current Assets
1084.8 1235.9
Accts Payable
92.8
110.2
Debt Due
--Other
357.0
339.2
Current Liab.
449.8
449.4
ANNUAL RATES Past
of change (per sh)
10 Yrs.
Sales
17.5%
Cash Flow
17.0%
Earnings
12.5%
Dividends
-Book Value
27.5%
Fiscal
Year
Begins

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

VALUE
LINE

5/1/10
632.9
91.8
316.4
143.9
1185.0
110.1
-305.7
415.8

Past Estd 07-09


5 Yrs.
to 13-15
15.0%
4.0%
12.5%
4.5%
7.0%
6.5%
-1.0%
19.5%
7.5%

Full
QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.)AF
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
742.4 804.5 973.9 1229.0 3749.9
800.2 845.8 896.3 998.0 3540.3
601.7 637.2 753.7 936.0 2928.6
687.8 710
820 1012.2 3230
750
775
890 1085
3500
Full
EARNINGS PER SHARE AB
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
.65
.88
1.29
2.40
5.20
.69
.87
.72
.78
3.05
d.26
d.09
.55
.68
.89
d.13
.15
.55
1.18
1.75
d.05
.25
.70
1.45
2.35
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID D
Full
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year
.175
.175
.175
.175
.70
.175
.175
.175
.175
.70
.175
.175
.175
.175
.70
.175
.175
.175
.175
.70
.175
.175

(A) Fiscal year ends Saturday closest to January 31st of the following year. (B) Diluted earnings. Quarterly figures may not add to total due
to difference in share count. Excl. n.r. chg.: 04,

23.0%
354
158.1
39.5%
12.8%
149.0
-422.7
37.4%
37.4%
37.4%
--

22.9%
491
168.7
39.0%
12.4%
241.6
-595.4
28.3%
28.3%
28.3%
--

23.2%
597
194.9
38.4%
12.2%
389.7
-749.5
26.0%
26.0%
26.0%
--

23.3%
700
205.1
38.8%
12.0%
472.7
-871.3
23.5%
23.5%
23.5%
--

24.1%
788
237.4
38.5%
11.7%
238.4
-669.3
35.5%
35.5%
28.5%
20%

24.4% 24.2% 24.6%


851
944
1035
342.2 422.2 475.7
39.2% 37.2% 37.4%
12.3% 12.7% 12.7%
455.5 581.5 597.2
---995.1 1405.3 1618.3
34.4% 30.0% 29.4%
34.4% 30.0% 29.4%
29.1% 25.7% 25.6%
15%
15%
13%

18.8% 12.2%
1125
1096
272.3
79.0
39.6% 33.9%
7.7%
2.7%
635.0 786.5
100.0
71.2
1845.6 1827.9
14.1%
4.3%
14.8%
4.3%
11.5%
1.0%
22%
78%

15.0%
1135
155
35.0%
4.8%
800
70.0
1920
8.0%
8.0%
5.0%
40%

16.5%
1170
210
37.0%
6.0%
880
70.0
2070
10.0%
10.0%
7.0%
29%

THIS
STOCK

VL ARITH.
INDEX

23.3
-55.6
-51.8

29.6
-8.6
24.0

VALUE LINE PUB., INC.

13-15

Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh AB
Divds Decld per sh D
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg C
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield

50.00
7.40
4.40
.74
31.40
86.00
15.0
1.00
1.1%

Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin E
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof

4300
73.0%
21.0%
1250
385
39.0%
9.0%
1100
Nil
2700
14.5%
14.5%
12.0%
17%

BUSINESS: Abercrombie & Fitch Company retails lines of mens,


womens, and childrens clothing. Operates under the names Abercrombie & Fitch, abercrombie, Hollister, and Gilly Hicks. Originally
established in 1892 to supply apparel for the rugged outdoors. Now,
the company is better known for its youthful, fashion-oriented
casual apparel. Basic apparel line includes jeans, T-shirts, knits,

and button-downs. Has 1,097 stores located throughout U. S., Canada, and the U.K. as of 1/30/10. RUEHL discontd in 2009. Has abt
80,000 empls. (incl. 9,000 full-time). Chairman & CEO: Michael Jeffries owns 3.3% of common; other officers and directors, .7% (5/10
proxy). Inc.: Delaware. Addr.: 6301 Fitch Path, New Albany, Ohio
43054. Tel.: 614-283-6500. Internet: www.abercrombie.com.

Abercrombie & Fitch appears to be


bouncing back. The retailer of preppy
teen clothing started off fiscal 2010 (began
January 31st) with a narrower loss versus
the year-ago tally, on a slight same-store
sales advance. Results likely climbed into
positive territory in the July quarter, as
comps jumped. The second half of the year
should be pretty decent, as well.
Margins stand to improve. To remain
competitive in a weak retail environment,
ANF has essentially been forced to make
selective price adjustments and turn more
promotional. With customer traffic picking
up, the company now plans to scale back
promotional activity, though discounting
will likely continue at Hollister, where
business is still sluggish. That should ease
pressure on the gross margin. Lower
sourcing costs, and savings from store
closures in underperforming markets, offset by store opening expenses, ought to
provide further margin support as sales
increase. Meanwhile,
The retailer is stepping up international expansion, to compensate for
weakness on the domestic front. It
remains focused on tapping such markets

as Europe, Japan, and Canada, where customer response has been positive and
growth opportunities are plentiful. A&F
flagship stores are on track to debut this
year in Denmark and Japan, while some
25 mall-based Hollister stores will open
across Europe and a Gilly Hicks (lingerie
chain) location will open in the U.K. ANF
also plans to open two flagships in France
and Spain in 2011, and is looking to set up
15 more of those shops in Europe and Asia
next year. Accordingly,
Weve increased our estimates across
the board, although were keeping a
somewhat cautious stance, pending moreconsistent comps and earnings trends. The
debt crisis unfolding in Europe is of some
concern, too, as it can ultimately restrain
growth abroad.
Abercrombie shares have slipped
some 30% since our May review, partly
reflecting market volatility of late. But
based on the current price and our upwardly revised projections to 2013-2015,
supported by high-margin global expansion, appreciation potential is now more
tempting.
J. Susan Ferrara
August 6, 2010

$0.22; 05, $0.09. Excl. loss from disc. ops. in


09 of $0.89. Next egs. rpt. due mid-Aug. (C) In
millions, adjusted for stock split. (D) Began
paying dividends in 04. Dividends historically

paid mid- or late March, June, Sept., Dec. (E)


Beginning FY05, data reflects new classification of cost of goods sold. (F) Qtly. sales for
FY07 dont sum due to rounding.

2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

Companys Financial Strength


Stocks Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability

A
40
70
45

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

ANNTAYLOR NYSE-ANN
TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

2
3
3

RECENT
PRICE

High:
Low:

Raised 2/12/10

23.6
13.9

19.9
6.7

LEGENDS
8.5 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Raised 7/30/10
3-for-2 split 5/02
BETA 1.25 (1.00 = Market)
3-for-2 split 5/04
Options: Yes
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
Shaded area: prior recession
Annl Total Latest recession began 12/07

17.5
9.4

22.1
12.8

24.4 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 20.0) P/E RATIO 0.93 YLD
16.87 P/ERATIO 14.7(Trailing:
27.2
11.4

31.4
20.0

34.8
20.4

45.2
32.0

39.9
25.1

29.2
3.7

17.5
2.4

Nil

25.2
11.6

VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015

Raised 8/18/00

64
48
40
32
24
20
16
12

3-for-2
3-for-2

Price
Gain
Return
High
40 (+135%) 24%
Low
25 (+50%) 10%
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell

S
0
0
0

O
0
0
0

N
0
0
0

D
0
0
1

J
0
0
0

F
0
0
0

M
0
2
4

A
0
1
0

M
0
2
2

8
6
% TOT. RETURN 6/10

Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
96
to Buy
to Sell
92
Hlds(000) 64058

4Q2009
81
95
63626

1Q2010
85
87
60639

Percent
shares
traded

75
50
25

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

AnnTaylor began in 1954 as a single store 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
operated by the Liebeskind family in New 19.01 19.66 20.51 23.33 26.24 28.60 33.77 39.36 38.33 31.11 33.20 34.70
Haven, Conn. Changed ownership three 1.62 1.42 1.90 2.24 2.12 2.55 3.59 3.84
2.16
2.07
2.85
3.10
times between 77 and 86. In February 89,
.88
.60
1.15
1.42
.99
1.26
1.98
1.83
.02
.31
1.15
1.30
Merrill Lynch and a management group ac----------Nil
Nil
quired the company from Campeau for $431 8.85 9.26 10.61 12.20 13.12 14.27 15.13 13.79
7.27
7.10
8.20
9.50
mill., financed mainly by co.-issued debt. 64.85 66.10 67.32 68.07 70.63 72.49 69.37 60.88 57.26 58.77 59.00 59.00
IPO came on 5/16/91; 14,485,400 shares
14.5
22.4
14.8
14.0
25.9
21.2
19.2
18.0
NMF
33.7 Bold figures are
Value Line
were sold at $11.61 each in deal led by Mer.94
1.15
.81
.80
1.37
1.13
1.04
.96
NMF
2.22
estimates
rill Lynch and Robertson, Stephens.
----------CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10
Total Debt None
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $180.5 mill.
Pension Assets-1/10 $28.7 mill.
Oblig. $32.4 mill.
Preferred Stock None
Common Stock 58,793,097 shs.
as of 5/17/10
MARKET CAP: $1.0 billion (Mid Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
112.3
210.1
Receivables
14.1
19.3
Inventory (Avg Cost) 173.4
169.1
Other
123.8
106.4
Current Assets
423.6
504.9
Accts Payable
109.2
77.0
Debt Due
--Other
196.4
198.4
Current Liab.
305.6
275.4
ANNUAL RATES Past
of change (per sh)
10 Yrs.
Sales
9.0%
Cash Flow
7.5%
Earnings
2.0%
Dividends
-Book Value
2.5%
Fiscal
Year
Begins

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

5/1/10
212.8
31.6
199.6
100.3
544.3
90.2
-168.5
278.7

Past Estd 07-09


5 Yrs.
to 13-15
9.0%
2.0%
5.0%
7.0%
-9.5% 18.0%
-Nil
-5.0%
7.5%

Full
QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.) A
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
580.3 614.5 600.9 600.8 2396.5
591.7 592.3 527.2 483.4 2194.6
426.8 470.2 462.4 469.1 1828.5
476.2 500
495
493.8 1965
495
525
520
515
2055
Full
EARNINGS PER SHARE AB
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
.46
.50
.66
.19
1.83
.47
.54 - d1.03
.02
d.04
.06
.20
.05
.31
.38
.32
.33
.12
1.15
.40
.37
.38
.15
1.30
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID
Full
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year

NO CASH DIVIDENDS
BEING PAID

(A) Fiscal years end on the Saturday nearest


January 31st of the following calendar year.
(B) Diluted egs. Excludes nonrecurring
charges: 99, 1; 00, 9; 01, 15; 04, 11;

THIS
STOCK

VL ARITH.
INDEX

103.9
-54.1
-33.0

29.6
-8.6
24.0

VALUE LINE PUB., INC.

Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh ABE
Divds Decld per sh
Book Value per sh C
Common Shs Outstg
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield

Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof

13-15
41.10
4.00
1.90
Nil
14.40
59.00
17.5
1.15
Nil
2425
58.5%
13.0%
950
115
40.0%
4.7%
625
Nil
850
13.5%
13.5%
13.5%
Nil

1232.8 1299.6 1381.0 1587.7 1853.6 2073.1 2342.9 2396.5


52.4% 53.5% 57.6% 57.8% 55.4% 55.5% 58.2% 57.1%
12.6% 10.1% 13.2% 14.1% 10.6% 11.6% 14.1% 12.7%
478
538
584
648
738
824
869
929
58.8
39.4
80.2 100.9
71.0
91.3 143.0 116.7
43.5% 45.0% 39.0% 40.0% 40.3% 40.8% 40.1% 39.6%
4.8%
3.0%
5.8%
6.4%
3.8%
4.4%
6.1%
4.9%
172.8 189.3 304.1 415.8 343.5 418.6 391.2 195.0
116.2 118.3 121.7 125.2
----574.0 612.1 714.4 830.6 926.7 1034.5 1049.9 839.5
8.8%
5.7%
9.9% 10.8%
7.8%
8.8% 13.6% 13.9%
10.2%
6.4% 11.2% 12.2%
7.7%
8.8% 13.6% 13.9%
10.2%
6.4% 11.2% 12.2%
7.7%
8.8% 13.6% 13.9%
---------

2194.6 1828.5
53.6% 60.1%
5.6%
7.2%
935
907
1.2
17.8
29.8% 30.4%
.1%
1.0%
118.0 229.5
--416.5 417.2
.3%
4.3%
.3%
4.3%
.3%
4.3%
---

BUSINESS: AnnTaylor Stores operates 907 stores throughout the


U.S., D.C., & P.R., incl. 506 moderate-priced LOFT stores and 92
factory stores (as of 1/10). Sells better-quality womens apparel, accessories, and shoes (leased depts. until 93). Most fashions are
exclusive and sold under the Ann Taylor label. Stores are mainly located in upscale malls and specialty retail ctrs. Latest Ann Taylor

prototype is 5,300 sq. ft. (LOFT, avg. 5,900 sq. ft.). Sales per avg.
sq. ft. of retail space: $337 in 09 vs. $402 in 08. Has about 18,800
employees. T. Rowe Price Associates own 11.8% of common
stock; FMR Corp., 11.2%. Off. & dir., 5.9% (4/10 Proxy). President
and CEO: Kay Krill. Inc.: DE. Address: 7 Times Square, New York,
NY 10036. Tel.: 212-541-3300. Internet: www.anntaylor.com.

Margin expansion remained the story


at AnnTaylor Stores in the first
quarter. The womens retailer smashed
earnings expectations, reporting share net
of $0.38 versus our $0.15 estimate and the
$0.04 loss incurred last year, as the operating margin increased a few hundred basis
points. Although cost controls helped, so
did momentum at the top line. Sales rose
roughly 12% to $476 million, with gains in
each of the companys brands. This
enabled management to limit discounting
and sell goods at full price.
We look for further progress on this
front, albeit at a slower pace. Management reduced price points across most
merchandise categories in the most recent
quarter by 15%, which helped to drive unit
sales, reduce promotions, and boost traffic.
Plans to expand on this strategy during
the fall season, along with further inventory controls, ought to enable the company
to continue growing margins at a healthy
clip over the next couple of years. That
said, it should be noted that there could be
some hurdles on the horizon, as the benefits of outsourcing become more difficult to
realize. Personal incomes in China have

improved greatly over the years, and the


country, which supplies almost half of
ANNs merchandise, may not offer as
much cheap manufacturing capabilities in
the future. Margins may come under pressure if the company cannot find alternative sourcing capabilities. In all, we now
estimate that ANN will earn $1.15 and
$1.30 a share, respectively, in fiscal 2010
and 2011.
The stock is a timely selection. Although the recent stock market sell off
hasnt spared ANN shares, this issue is
still ranked to outpace the Value Line universe for price performance over the coming six to 12 months due to the favorable
earnings comparisons likely to stem from
ongoing margin expansion.
Its 3- to 5-year recovery potential is
solid at the current price too, but we
have some apprehension. If margin
growth does slow, the catalyst of earnings
growth will shift to the top line. Sales
growth has been on the mend and should
gain traction as new store development
resumes, but, given weak consumer confidence, we urge caution toward this stock.
Andre J. Costanza
August 6, 2010

05, 13; 08, $5.87; 09, 64. Quarterly earnings may not sum to total due to rounding or
change in share count. Next earnings report
due late August.

1960
59.5%
10.5%
910
67.0
40.0%
3.4%
335
Nil
485
14.0%
14.0%
14.0%
Nil

(C) Wrote off intangibles in 2008.


(D) In millions, adjusted for splits.
(E) Earnings prior to 02 include annual
amortization of goodwill.

2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

2055
59.5%
11.5%
925
75.0
40.0%
3.6%
425
Nil
560
13.5%
13.5%
13.5%
Nil

Companys Financial Strength


Stocks Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability

B+
15
50
15

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

AEROPOSTALE, INC. NYSE-ARO


TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

1
3
3

RECENT
PRICE
High:
Low:

Raised 8/6/10

8.7
1.6

12.1 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: NMF) P/E RATIO 0.65 YLD
29.73 P/ERATIO 10.4(Trailing:
10.3
2.9

15.3
7.6

15.8
8.0

14.7
9.4

21.3
12.2

24.9
8.3

29.9
10.8

LEGENDS
13.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Lowered 7/23/10
3-for-2 split 4/04
BETA 1.05 (1.00 = Market)
3-for-2 split 8/07
3-for-2 split 3/10
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
Options: Yes
Annl Total Shaded area: prior recession
Price
Gain
Return Latest recession began 12/07

to Buy
Options
to Sell

O
0
0
2

N
0
0
0

32.2
21.6

D
0
0
1

J
0
0
2

120
100
80
64
48

3-for-2

24%
11%

32
24
20
16
12

3-for-2
3-for-2

F M
0 0
0 0
5 10

A
0
0
7

M
0
0
0

% TOT. RETURN 6/10

Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
166
to Buy
to Sell
163
Hlds(000) 110011

4Q2009
155
200
98810

1Q2010
156
172
90666

Percent
shares
traded

60
40
20

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

Aeropostales initial public offering took 2000C 2001C 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
place in May of 2002. Underwritten by Bear, 2.04 2.86 4.62 6.28 7.37 9.90 12.16 15.90 18.76 23.73 26.30 28.40
Stearns, & Co., Merrill Lynch and Pierce,
.13
.14
.25
.57
.77
.87
1.15
1.66
1.94
3.00
3.45
3.75
Fenner & Smith Inc. The issuance of
.07
.08
.24
.41
.65
.67
.85
1.20
1.47
2.27
2.85
3.15
32,343,750 shares generated proceeds of
----------Nil
Nil
$240.7 million. The offering price to the pub.15
.27
1.07
1.59
1.82
2.34
2.69
1.97
3.53
4.62
7.30 10.75
lic was $8 a share. (All data adjusted for 104.78 106.44 119.16 117.03 130.76 121.61 116.20 100.03 100.50 94.00 94.00 95.00
stock splits.)
--18.9
16.7
18.6
18.3
15.2
14.1
12.4
9.9 Bold figures are
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10
Total Debt None
Leases, Uncapitalized: Annual rentals $113.3
mill.
Pension Assets-2/10 None
Oblig. $25.3 mill.

Common Stock 93,523,697 shs. as of 5/28/10


MARKET CAP: $2.8 billion (Mid Cap)
CURRENT POSITION
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
Receivables
Inventory (FIFO)
Other
Current Assets
Accts Payable
Debt Due
Other
Current Liab.

2008

2009

5/1/10

228.5
-126.4
39.0
393.9
77.2
-98.2
175.4

347.0
-183.0
43.4
530.0
90.9
-150.9
241.8

312.7
-122.7
50.4
485.8
72.0
-121.0
193.0

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

---

---

1.03
--

.95
--

213.4
30.6%
9.3%
178
9.4
38.0%
4.4%
8.2
-16.0
58.5%
58.5%
58.5%
--

304.8
29.6%
7.9%
357
10.9
39.3%
3.6%
10.8
-35.3
30.9%
30.9%
37.5%
--

550.9
31.1%
11.1%
367
31.3
40.0%
5.7%
86.8
-128.0
24.5%
24.5%
16.7%
32%

734.9
33.0%
13.7%
459
54.3
39.0%
7.4%
140.9
-185.7
29.2%
29.2%
29.2%
--

.98
--

.97
--

.82
--

.75
--

964.2 1204.3 1413.2 1590.9


34.9% 32.0% 34.1% 37.1%
15.8% 13.1% 13.6% 15.3%
561
671
742
828
84.1
84.0 103.4 129.2
38.8% 39.6% 39.7% 38.2%
8.7%
7.0%
7.3%
8.1%
182.5 212.9 234.0
87.3
----238.3 284.8 312.1 197.3
35.3% 29.5% 33.1% 65.5%
35.3% 29.5% 33.1% 65.5%
35.3% 29.5% 33.1% 65.5%
-----

.75
--

Value Line
estimates

.67
--

1885.5 2230.1
37.1% 40.4%
15.6% 19.5%
914
952
149.4 229.5
40.0% 40.1%
7.9% 10.3%
218.5 288.2
--355.1 434.5
42.1% 52.8%
42.1% 52.8%
42.1% 52.8%
---

2470
42.0%
19.5%
1005
270
40.0%
10.9%
330
Nil
685
39.5%
39.5%
39.5%
Nil

2700
42.0%
20.5%
1070
300
40.0%
11.1%
400
Nil
1020
29.5%
29.5%
29.5%
Nil

THIS
STOCK

VL ARITH.
INDEX

25.4
54.6
91.8

29.6
-8.6
24.0

VALUE LINE PUB., INC.

13-15

Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh B
Divds Decld per sh
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg D
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield

33.50
4.95
4.25
Nil
21.95
96.00
13.5
.90
Nil

Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof

3215
42.0%
21.0%
1200
410
39.0%
11.4%
850
Nil
2130
19.0%
19.0%
19.0%
Nil

BUSINESS: Aeropostale is a mall-based specialty retailer that targets young women and men ages 11 to 20 years. The companys
objective is to provide high-quality, active-oriented casual apparel
and accessories at value prices. Merchandise can only be purchased at company stores or organized sales events at college
campuses. In 2009, Aeropostale operated 938 stores in 49 states

and Canada. Also operates 14 P.S. from Aeropostale units. Average store size is 3,500 sq. ft. Has about 14,460 employees (75%
part-time). BlackRock owns 15.8% of stock; Barclays, 12.9%; FMR,
6.8%; Vanguard, 5.6%; Off./dir., .8% (5/10 Proxy). Chrmn: Julian R.
Geiger. Inc.: Delaware. Address: 1372 Broadway, 8th Floor, New
York, NY 10018. Tel.: 646-485-5398. Web: www.aeropostale.com.

The top line continues to advance at a


formidable pace for Aeropostale. Revenues grew 14% year over year during the
April quarter, including an 8% rise in comparable
store
sales.
The
company
benefited from a difficult economic environment, as consumers have been atFull
QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.)A
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year tracted to its lower-priced apparel. A well275.8 311.2 412.6 591.3 1590.9 received selection of merchandise, driven
336.3 377.2 482.0 690.0 1885.5 by strong inventory management, also
408.0 453.0 567.8 801.3 2230.1 helped to boost customer traffic and pur463.6 500
625
881.4 2470 chases. Additionally, Aeropostale has
500
560
710
930 2700 shown accelerated growth from its recently
introduced online platform. Web-based
Full
EARNINGS PER SHAREA B
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year sales increased 42% during the first
.11
.13
.32
.64
1.20 quarter. In the second quarter, compa.17
.20
.42
.68
1.47 nywide sales flattened a bit in the month
.31
.38
.61
.99
2.27 of May, though they bounced back in June,
.48
.49
.75
1.13
2.85 with an 8% comp sales advance.
.52
.56
.82
1.25
3.15 The company ought to fare decently
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID
Full for the key back-to-school season. CusMar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year tomer traffic trends have remained
healthy, and inventory levels have been
lean. This should enable Aeropostale to
NO CASH DIVIDENDS
keep its stores stocked with the latest
BEING PAID
fashion trends and improve overall occupancy leverage. The one concern right
now is that there has been a shortage of

merchandise, since suppliers remain at


tight capacity and have been reluctant to
expand. This could dampen near-term
growth opportunities within the retail apparel industry. Nonetheless, we look fo
AROs share earnings to advance at a 25%
clip this year.
The company continues to expand its
store
base.
We
foresee
25
new
Aeropostale units in fiscal 2010, including
the seven opened during the first quarter.
It has also accelerated growth of the P.S.
chain following a strong response early on.
Specifically, ARO opened seven P.S. units
during the April interim, bringing the total store count to 31, and it is slated to
open about 23 more during fiscal 2010.
Over the next few years, we look for
stronger international growth, including
more units in Canada and possibly in
Asia.
Aeropostale shares are ranked to outperform the broader market in the
year ahead. The stock also has
worthwhile appreciation potential to
20132015, based on double-digit annual
earnings growth over that period.
Garrett Sussman
August 6, 2010

ANNUAL RATES Past


of change (per sh) 10 Yrs.
Sales
-Cash Flow
-Earnings
-Dividends
-Book Value
-Fiscal
Year
Begins

VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015

New 2/13/04

High
70 (+135%)
Low
45 (+50%)
Insider Decisions
S
0
0
1

Nil

Past Estd 07-09


5 Yrs.
to 13-15
26.0%
9.5%
33.0% 14.5%
30.5% 17.0%
-Nil
17.5% 36.5%

(A) Through 2001, fiscal year ended July 31st.


Subsequently, fiscal year ends on the Saturday
nearest to January 31st of the following
calendar year.

(B) Diluted earnings. May not sum due to


rounding. Next egs. report due mid August.
(C) Pro forma results.
(D) In millions, adjusted for stock splits.

2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

Companys Financial Strength


Stocks Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability

B++
40
80
85

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

BUCKLE, INC. NYSE-BKE


TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

2
3
5

RECENT
PRICE

High:
Low:

Raised 4/16/10

14.5
5.6

9.4
4.8

10.0
6.5

11.3
7.0

10.1 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 14.0) P/E RATIO 0.62 YLD 3.3%
28.27 P/ERATIO 9.9(Trailing:
10.2
6.9

14.2
9.6

20.6
12.5

24.4
14.1

LEGENDS
11.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Lowered 8/6/10
2-for-1 split 4/97
BETA 1.05 (1.00 = Market)
3-for-2 split 6/98
3-for-2 split 1/07
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
3-for-2 split 10/08
Annl Total Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
Price
Gain
Return
Latest recession began 12/07
High
75 (+165%) 30%

S
0
0
0

O
0
0
1

N
0
0
0

44.6
13.6

39.1
19.2

40.3
27.4

Target Price Range


2013 2014 2015

New 11/20/98

Low
50 (+75%)
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell

29.1
21.5

D
0
2
0

J
0
1
2

F
0
0
0

3-for-2

128
96
80
64
48
40
32
24

3-for-2

18%

M
0
1
0

A
0
2
4

M
0
0
0

16
12
% TOT. RETURN 6/10

Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
100
to Buy
to Sell
126
Hlds(000) 29013

4Q2009
95
92
26828

1Q2010
71
88
27135

Percent
shares
traded

9
6
3

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
3.14
.28
.16
-1.12
46.17
13.1
.86
--

3.73
.33
.21
-1.33
46.20
11.5
.77
--

4.38
.40
.28
-1.66
47.13
15.4
.96
--

5.50
.59
.47
-2.21
48.73
14.8
.85
--

6.84
.83
.65
-2.96
49.43
18.7
.97
--

8.05
1.01
.73
-3.50
46.63
12.9
.74
--

CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10


Total Debt None
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $49.0 mill.
No Pension Plan
Pfd Stock None
Common Stock 46,730,695 shs.
as of 5/28/10
MARKET CAP: $1.3 billion (Mid Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
181.6
158.0
Receivables
3.7
6.9
Inventory (FIFO)
84.0
88.2
Other
17.7
11.7
Current Assets
287.0
264.8
Accts Payable
22.5
24.4
Debt Due
--Other
66.9
67.6
Current Liab.
89.4
92.0
ANNUAL RATES Past
of change (per sh)
10 Yrs.
Sales
9.5%
Cash Flow
13.0%
Earnings
13.5%
Dividends
-Book Value
10.0%
Fiscal
Year
Begins

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

VALUE
LINE

5/1/10
154.3
5.0
84.7
19.3
263.3
33.3
-53.3
86.6

Past Estd 07-09


5 Yrs.
to 13-15
13.5% 10.5%
21.0% 11.5%
24.5% 11.5%
49.5% 13.5%
4.0% 13.5%

QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.) A


Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per
121.1 124.2
167.6 207.0
160.3 169.7
210.6 251.4
199.7 192.9
231.2 274.5
214.8 190.2
245
290
225
203
262
310
EARNINGS PER SHARE A B
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per
.27
.25
.48
.63
.41
.48
.62
.74
.58
.54
.71
.90
.64
.52
.73
.96
.66
.56
.80
1.03
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID C
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31
.075
.075
.075
.089
.133
.133
.133
.167
.167
.167
.167
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20

Full
Fiscal
Year

619.9
792.0
898.3
940
1000
Full
Fiscal
Year

(A) Fiscal year ends on the Saturday closest to


January 31st of the following year.
(B) Primary earnings through 96, diluted thereafter. Quarterly earnings may not sum to total

1.63
2.24
2.73
2.85
3.05
Full
Year

.31
.57
.78
.80

8.58
1.01
.72
-4.23
45.85
9.1
.59
--

8.16
.94
.68
-4.92
47.51
12.5
.64
--

8.47
.94
.65
-5.59
47.35
14.2
.78
--

8.75
.97
.69
.09
6.16
48.34
12.6
.72
1.0%

9.65
1.22
.86
.20
6.82
48.79
14.3
.76
1.6%

11.52
1.60
1.13
.27
6.89
43.51
14.2
.76
1.7%

12.02
1.70
1.24
.37
6.50
44.11
14.8
.80
2.0%

13.85
2.14
1.63
.60
7.56
44.76
15.2
.81
2.4%

17.25
2.75
2.24
.73
7.35
45.91
13.0
.78
2.5%

19.37
3.29
2.73
.80
7.64
46.38
11.0
.73
2.7%

393.2
36.3%
16.0%
274
34.8
36.7%
8.8%
135.9
-194.1
17.9%
17.9%
17.9%
--

387.6
36.1%
15.3%
295
32.9
36.9%
8.5%
176.9
-233.7
14.1%
14.1%
14.1%
--

401.1
35.9%
14.5%
304
32.1
36.5%
8.0%
143.9
-264.7
12.1%
12.1%
12.1%
--

422.8
36.9%
14.5%
316
33.7
36.2%
8.0%
180.2
-297.6
11.3%
11.3%
9.9%
13%

470.9
39.8%
16.9%
327
43.2
36.3%
9.2%
229.6
-332.9
13.0%
13.0%
10.1%
22%

501.1
42.2%
18.7%
338
51.9
37.0%
10.4%
200.9
-299.8
17.3%
17.3%
13.4%
23%

530.1
42.8%
18.6%
350
55.7
36.7%
10.5%
189.0
-286.6
19.4%
19.4%
13.7%
29%

619.9
44.4%
21.0%
368
75.2
36.7%
12.1%
184.4
-338.3
22.2%
22.2%
14.3%
36%

792.0
46.1%
23.2%
387
104.4
36.7%
13.2%
197.6
-337.2
31.0%
31.0%
21.0%
32%

898.3
47.4%
25.0%
401
127.3
37.6%
14.2%
172.8
-354.3
35.9%
35.9%
25.5%
29%

20.20
3.45
2.85
.83
8.60
46.50

21.75
3.95
3.05
.95
10.54
46.00

Bold figures are


Value Line
estimates

940
47.5%
25.0%
422
135
37.0%
14.4%
200
Nil
400
34.0%
34.0%
24.0%
29%

1000
47.5%
25.0%
442
143
37.0%
14.3%
240
Nil
485
29.5%
29.5%
20.5%
31%

THIS
STOCK

VL ARITH.
INDEX

3.9
31.3
81.8

29.6
-8.6
24.0

VALUE LINE PUB., INC.

13-15

Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh A B
Divds Decld per sh C
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg D
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield

30.70
5.25
4.20
1.50
16.25
44.00
15.0
1.00
2.4%

Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof

1350
45.0%
24.0%
505
185
37.0%
13.7%
340
Nil
715
26.0%
26.0%
16.5%
36%

BUSINESS: The Buckle, Inc. is a retailer of medium- to higherpriced casual apparel for fashion-conscious young men and women
aged 15 to 30. The company operates 415 stores in 41 states mainly in the central, northwestern, and southern regions of the U.S. under the names Buckle and The Buckle. The merchandise mix
includes denims, casual tops, sweaters, slacks, outerwear, acces-

sories, and shoes. 2009 sales: denim, 43%; tops and sweaters,
37%; shoes, 5%; all other categories, 15%. Has about 7,000 employees. Off. and dir. own 45.3% of stock; Three institutional investors own 25.6% (4/10 Proxy). Chairman: Daniel J. Hirschfeld. CEO
& Pres.: Dennis H. Nelson. Inc.: NE. Address: 2407 W. 24th St.,
Kearney, NE 68845. Tel.: 308 236-8491. Internet: www.buckle.com.

The Buckles share price declined 27%


in the last three months. We believe the
main reason is the slightly lower sales recorded during May and June (year-earlier
figures were healthy). Current weakness is
occurring in both mens and womens tops
and womens denims. (The Buckles business in these areas is keyed to the changing brands it carries, and to the garments
details and embellishments which influences their selling price.) Additionally, a
tough economy is hurting sales to
teenagers. Also, rivals promotions may be
cutting into business (BKE isnt an aggressive promoter). Thus, we estimate that the
July interim was the first down earnings
quarter since the summer of 2006.
Better results are probably near. We
believe same-store comparisons improved
in the month of July, and should remain
positive against easy numbers in the October, 2009 quarter (up 4.3%), and the
holiday season (January, 2010 same-store
sales increased 3.8%). First-half fiscal
2011 comparisons should also be easy to
beat, helping to drive the 7% shareearnings gain we envision next year.
Depending on the level of stock repur-

chases, we may well raise that estimate.


The companys current store target is
500-plus. At the current 20-store-a-year
pace, it will reach its goal in 2014-2015.
When that occurs, The Buckle might backfill some locations, and likely aggressively
expand in the Northeast, where its market
penetration is minimal. BKE will probably
continue remodeling sites. A full remodels
costs equal those of a new location.
This retailer has solid financial underpinnings. The Buckles debt-free balance sheet contains $236 million (over $5 a
share) of cash and investments. Those
funds and the companys free cash flow
would easily allow it to repurchase shares
at todays modest P/E multiple. Moreover,
we believe management (with a large
ownership stake) will likely pay out a special dividend before the tax rate on
dividends changes. Note, specials were distributed in 2007, 2008, and 2009.
The Buckles shares have appealing 3to 5-year capital appreciation potential, as the price pullback added to their
attractiveness. Shorter term, based on
reported earnings, this stock is timely.
Jerome H. Kaplan
August 6, 2010

due to change in share count. Next earnings divd paid 1/07, $2.00 paid 10/08, and $1.80
report due August 19th.
paid 10/09.
(C) Dividend historically paid in late January, (D) In millions, adjusted for stock splits.
April, July, and October. Excl. $1.33 special

2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

Companys Financial Strength


Stocks Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability

A
50
95
100

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

CATO CORP. NYSE-CATO


TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

3
3
4

High:
Low:

Raised 11/20/09
New 8/11/06
Lowered 8/6/10

BETA .95 (1.00 = Market)

2013-15 PROJECTIONS

Annl Total
Price
Gain
Return
High
40 (+65%) 16%
Low
25
(+5%)
4%
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell

S
0
0
0

O
0
3
3

N
0
0
0

D
0
0
0

J
0
0
0

F
0
0
0

M
0
0
0

A
0
0
2

RECENT
PRICE
10.4
5.0

9.9
6.1

14.6
8.7

18.5
9.4

13.2 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 13.0) P/E RATIO 0.82 YLD 3.1%
24.13 P/ERATIO 13.0(Trailing:
17.0
10.8

19.7
12.6

24.4
16.8

26.7
19.3

25.7
13.2

19.4
11.3

23.2
12.8

25.6
18.5

Target Price Range


2013 2014 2015

LEGENDS
10.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
3-for-2 split 6/05
Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
Latest recession began 12/07

64
48
40
32
24
20
16
12

M
0
0
0

8
6
% TOT. RETURN 6/10

Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
58
to Buy
to Sell
94
Hlds(000) 26604

4Q2009
62
65
26362

1Q2010
55
71
25998

Percent
shares
traded

24
16
8

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
11.18
.59
.41
.10
3.32
42.60
19.7
1.29
1.2%

11.47
.46
.28
.11
3.51
42.70
16.9
1.13
2.2%

11.51
.44
.25
.11
3.56
42.69
17.5
1.10
2.4%

12.42
.61
.41
.11
3.82
41.25
11.6
.67
2.2%

13.44
.78
.57
.13
4.26
40.45
15.2
.79
1.5%

15.37
1.08
.83
.19
4.79
39.37
9.4
.54
2.4%

CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10


Total Debt None
Leases, Uncapitalized: Annual rentals $55.5 mill.
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Common Stock 27,729,309 Class A common
shares entitled to one vote each and 1,743,525
convertible Class B common shares entitled to ten
votes each
MARKET CAP: $700 million (Small Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
144.8
198.4
Receivables
44.1
40.2
Inventory (Avg Cst) 112.3
118.6
Other
14.1
13.6
Current Assets
315.3
370.8
Accts Payable
103.0
103.6
Debt Due
--Other
47.7
64.9
Current Liab.
150.7
168.5
ANNUAL RATES Past
of change (per sh) 10 Yrs.
Sales
8.0%
Cash Flow
9.5%
Earnings
7.5%
Dividends
16.5%
Book Value
8.0%
Fiscal
Year
Ends

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Ends

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

VALUE
LINE

5/1/10
220.1
40.7
106.7
15.5
383.0
82.3
-77.8
160.1

18.67
1.43
1.11
.35
6.21
37.80
10.7
.55
3.0%

19.11
1.58
1.18
.39
7.05
38.34
11.8
.64
2.8%

23.70
1.62
.89
.41
6.29
30.87
15.4
.88
3.0%

24.80
1.77
1.11
.46
6.77
31.21
13.8
.73
3.0%

26.77
2.08
1.41
.51
7.68
31.24
14.4
.77
2.5%

27.76
2.29
1.62
.58
8.77
31.55
14.1
.76
2.5%

28.80
1.86
1.03
.65
8.42
29.39
19.6
1.04
3.2%

29.18
1.91
1.15
.66
8.91
29.39
13.6
.82
4.2%

29.88
2.28
1.55
.66
9.85
29.59
12.1
.80
3.5%

669.1
33.4%
10.4%
859
39.0
35.0%
5.8%
125.7
-207.8
18.8%
18.8%
13.7%
27%

705.7
33.9%
10.9%
937
43.1
35.0%
6.1%
139.6
-234.7
18.4%
18.4%
12.6%
31%

732.7
32.3%
9.2%
1022
45.8
36.2%
6.3%
162.6
-270.2
17.0%
17.0%
11.5%
32%

731.8
30.5%
6.7%
1102
31.4
36.3%
4.3%
112.9
21.5
194.1
14.6%
16.2%
8.7%
46%

773.8
31.6%
7.4%
1177
34.8
36.3%
4.5%
133.8
16.0
211.2
15.5%
16.5%
9.8%
41%

836.4
34.6%
10.3%
1244
44.8
36.3%
5.4%
139.1
-239.9
18.7%
18.7%
12.1%
35%

875.9
34.6%
10.4%
1276
51.5
35.4%
5.9%
176.4
-276.8
18.6%
18.6%
12.0%
35%

846.4
32.4%
7.5%
1318
32.3
34.4%
3.8%
144.2
-247.4
13.1%
13.1%
4.9%
63%

857.7
34.5%
7.9%
1281
33.6
36.1%
3.9%
164.6
16.0
261.8
12.8%
12.8%
5.4%
58%

884.0
37.6%
9.8%
1271
45.8
33.6%
5.2%
202.3
-291.3
15.7%
15.7%
9.0%
43%

31.35
2.60
1.85
.70
10.50
29.50

31.65
2.80
2.00
.74
11.15
30.00

Bold figures are


Value Line
estimates

925
37.5%
10.5%
1285
55.0
36.0%
5.9%
210
Nil
310
17.5%
17.5%
11.5%
38%

950
37.5%
10.5%
1290
60.0
36.0%
6.3%
225
Nil
335
18.0%
18.0%
12.0%
36%

VL ARITH.
INDEX

30.5
12.4
25.9

29.6
-8.6
24.0

VALUE LINE PUB., INC.

13-15

Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh AB
Divds Decld per sh C
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg D
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield

35.35
2.95
2.15
.80
13.35
30.00
15.0
1.00
2.3%

Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof

1060
36.0%
11.5%
1360
65.0
36.0%
6.1%
300
Nil
400
16.5%
16.5%
11.0%
34%

BUSINESS: The Cato Corporation operates 1,285 womens fashion specialty retail stores in the southeastern United States. It offers
an assortment of apparel and accessories, including dressy, career,
and casual sportswear, dresses, coats, shoes, lingerie, costume
jewelry, and handbags in junior/missy and plus sizes. A major portion of the Companys merchandise is sold under its private label

and is produced by various vendors. Has about 9,100 employees.


Royce & Associates owns 8.6% of common stock; Wellington AM,
7.5%; BlackRock, 5.1%. Officers/directors, 39.3% (4/10 Proxy).
Chairman, CEO, and President: John P. Cato. Incorporated: Delaware. Address: 8100 Denmark Road, Charlotte, NC 28273. Telephone: 704-544-8510. Internet: www.catocorp.com.

Cato Corp. has maintained its strong


performance in 2010. First-quarter
share net climbed 44%, to $0.92, as solid
gross margin improvement and SG&A leverage enhanced a 9% top-line gain. The
gross margin increased by 310 basis
points, to 43.5%, reflecting a reduction in
Full
Fiscal markdowns. Lean inventory management
Year has supported a greater mix of full-priced
846.4 sales, and removed the need for excessive
857.7 markdowns. Sales trends were relatively
884.0
925 healthy, with same-store sales advancing
950 8% in the period, and they remained positive in recent months. Comp sales adFull
Fiscal vanced 3% and 1% for the months of May
Year and June, respectively, exceeding manage1.03 ments conservative expectations.
1.15 We have raised our fiscal 2010 (ends
1.55
1.85 January 29, 2011) share-net estimate
2.00 by $0.10, to $1.85. Our increase is solely
based on the strong first-quarter earnings,
Full without any change in our outlook for the
Year
rest of the year. However, our second.56 quarter estimate of $0.58 remains well
.65
.66 above managements updated guidance
.66 range of $0.47-$0.50 (previously $0.43$0.46), which we still view as conservative.
Margin gains, coupled with a reduced cost-

structure, should enhance a low singledigit sales gain.


The balance sheet is a strong point.
CATO ended the first quarter with $220
million ($7.45 per share) in cash and
marketable securities, and no debt. The
strong financial position should help in
weathering a potential weakening in the
consumer environment.
The company continues to rationalize
its existing store portfolio. CATO
opened four stores, while closing three in
the first quarter. The company intends to
open 55 new stores and close 40 this year,
as it increases the share of Its Fashion
Metro stores (40 new stores), while reducing the number of Its Fashion stores.
These neutrally ranked shares have
been range-bound over the past few
months. The recent strong performance
should moderate in the second half of the
year, but to what degree remains to be
seen. Expansion opportunities are somewhat limited, which should restrain longterm earnings growth. Moreover, the stock
offers below-average 3- to 5-year appreciation potential.
Joel Schwed
August 6, 2010

Past Estd 07-09


5 Yrs.
to 13-15
5.5%
3.0%
4.0%
5.5%
3.5%
9.0%
9.5%
7.5%
6.0%
8.0%

QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.) A


Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per
227.2 221.9 184.8 212.5
228.8 233.9 182.8 212.2
241.0 228.3 193.8 220.9
262.7 240
197
225.3
270
245
205
230
EARNINGS PER SHARE AB
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per
.59
.39
.09
d.06
.58
.41
.03
.13
.64
.56
.10
.25
.92
.58
.12
.23
.90
.62
.18
.30
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID C
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31
.26
.15
.15 - .315
.165
.165 - .33
.165
.165 - .33
.165
.165 - .33
.185

17.67
1.28
1.02
.28
5.49
37.87
7.8
.51
3.6%

THIS
STOCK

(A) Fiscal year ends last Saturday in January


of the following calendar year. Includes other
income (finance charges, late fees, etc.)
(B) Diluted earnings per share. Excludes non-

recurring loss: 96, (13). Next earnings report March, June, and Sep.
due late August. Earnings may not sum due to (D) In millions, adjusted for stock split.
rounding.
(C) Dividends historically paid early Jan.,

2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

Companys Financial Strength


Stocks Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability

B++
60
60
70

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

CHICOS FAS NYSE-CHS


TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

4
3
1

RECENT
PRICE

High:
Low:

Lowered 7/23/10

2.5
1.0

4.8
1.0

LEGENDS
13.5 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Raised 8/6/10
2-for-1 split 1/00
BETA 1.25 (1.00 = Market)
3-for-2 split 5/01
3-for-2 split 1/02
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
2-for-1 split 7/02
Annl Total 2-for-1 split 2/05
Price
Gain
Return Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
High
35 (+270%) 40%
Latest recession began 12/07
Low
20 (+115%) 22%

7.0
2.3

11.9
6.2

18.4 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 27.0) P/E RATIO 0.84 YLD 1.7%
9.40 P/ERATIO 13.4(Trailing:
19.7
8.4

23.8
16.9

46.3
21.8

49.4
17.3

27.9
9.0

10.9
1.7

15.4
3.4

16.6
9.2

VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015

Raised 8/7/09

64
48
40
32
24
20
16
12

2-for-1

2-for-1
3-for-2

Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell

S
2
2
1

O
0
0
0

N
0
1
1

D
0
0
0

J
0
0
0

F
0
0
2

M
0
1
0

A
0
0
0

M
1
0
0

8
6
% TOT. RETURN 6/10

Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
141
144
141
to Buy
to Sell
126
134
135
Hlds(000) 158554 159711 162306

Percent
shares
traded

75
50
25

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

THIS
STOCK

VL ARITH.
INDEX

2.2
-59.2
-71.0

29.6
-8.6
24.0

Chicos FAS, Inc., founded by Marvin J. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 VALUE LINE PUB., INC. 13-15
Gralnick and wife, Helene B. Gralnick, was 1.65 2.32 3.11 4.39 5.96 7.73 9.37 9.73
8.93
9.62 10.75 11.55 Sales per sh A
13.95
incorporated in Florida, following its first
.22
.32
.49
.70
.99
1.34
1.34
1.01
.44
.93
1.25
1.45 Cash Flowper sh
1.85
store opening in 1983. In April 1993, the
.17
.25
.39
.57
.78
1.06
.93
.49
d.11
.39
.70
.90 Earnings per sh AB
1.30
company completed an initial public offering
--------.16
--.16
.16 Divds Decld per sh D
of approximately 50.4 million shares of com.54
.88
1.41
2.14
3.13
4.44
4.57
5.18
5.09
5.51
6.05
6.80 Book Value per sh
9.65
mon stock, priced at about $0.39 per share. 157.49 163.16 170.56 175.07 178.96 181.73 175.75 176.25 177.13 178.13 179.00 179.00 Common Shs Outstg C 179.00
Robert W. Baird acted as the lead un- 16.0 20.8 23.2 24.3 27.2 33.5 30.5 37.2 NMF 26.2 Bold figures are Avg Annl P/E Ratio
21.0
Value Line
derwriter for the offering. (All share-related 1.04 1.07 1.27 1.39 1.44 1.78 1.65 1.97 NMF 1.75
Relative P/E Ratio
1.40
estimates
figures have been adjusted to reflect sub----------Avg Annl Divd Yield
.6%
sequent stock splits.)
2500
259.5 378.1 531.1 768.5 1066.9 1404.6 1646.5 1714.3 1582.4 1713.2
1920
2070 Sales ($mill) A
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10
Total Debt None
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $129.2 mill.
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Pfd Stock None
Common Stock 178,711,981 shs.
as of 5/19/10
MARKET CAP: $1.7 billion (Mid Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
268.7
423.5
Receivables
34.0
3.9
Inventory (LIFO)
132.4
138.5
Other
51.3
34.1
Current Assets
486.4
600.0
Accts Payable
56.5
79.2
Debt Due
--Other
90.2
115.5
Current Liab.
146.7
194.7

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

481.9
3.9
160.5
36.7
683.0
101.6
-146.3
247.9

59.4%
20.6%
311
42.2
38.0%
11.2%
58.0
7.9
143.5
28.1%
29.4%
29.4%
--

60.7%
23.1%
378
66.8
38.0%
12.6%
105.5
-240.1
27.8%
27.8%
27.8%
--

61.5%
23.9%
557
100.2
38.0%
13.0%
126.0
1.3
374.8
26.6%
26.7%
26.7%
--

61.7%
24.4%
657
141.2
37.7%
13.2%
269.3
-560.9
25.2%
25.2%
25.2%
--

61.3%
24.7%
763
194.0
36.7%
13.8%
415.3
-806.4
24.1%
24.1%
24.1%
--

59.2%
19.5%
920
166.6
36.3%
10.1%
327.7
-803.9
20.7%
20.7%
20.7%
--

61.9%
12.5%
1038
86.8
34.4%
5.1%
305.5
-912.5
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
--

58.0%
3.7%
1076
d19.1
NMF
NMF
339.7
-902.2
NMF
NMF
NMF
--

61.7%
11.9%
1080
69.7
36.6%
4.1%
405.3
-981.9
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
--

63.0%
15.0%
1125
125
37.5%
6.5%
500
Nil
1085
11.5%
11.5%
9.0%
23%

63.0%
17.0%
1170
162
38.0%
7.8%
600
Nil
1220
13.0%
13.0%
11.0%
18%

Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof

63.0%
18.5%
1280
233
38.0%
9.3%
1000
Nil
1730
13.5%
13.5%
12.0%
12%

BUSINESS: Chicos FAS, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of


exclusively designed, private-label casual and formal apparel for
women. The company also sells other items such as accessories,
footwear, scented candles, and body-care products. Operates under the Chicos, White House/Black Market, and Soma, by Chicos
names. Its retail store system consists of 1,080 stores (as of

1/30/10), most of which are company-owned, front-line shops.


Acqd The White House, Inc., 9/03; Fitigues, 1/06, disc. Q1 07. Has
abt 16,200 empls. Off. & dir. own 1.9% of common stock; Columbia
Wanger Asset Mgmt., 5.8% (5/10 proxy). Chrmn.: Ross Roeder.
CEO/Pres.: David F. Dyer. Inc.: FL. Addr.: 11215 Metro Pkwy., Ft.
Myers, FL 33966. Tel.: 239-277-6200. Internet: www.chicos.com.

Chicos should register a strong profit


advance in fiscal 2010 (began January
31st), as business appears to be
moving at a brisk pace. The womens
retailer began the year in fine fashion,
with share net in the opening quarter topping our estimate by $0.03 and the yearFull
QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.) A
Fiscal ago tally by $0.12. An impressive sameApr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year store sales increase of 15% and gross mar453.1 436.0 415.9 409.3 1714.3 gin improvement, due to fewer mark409.6 405.2 394.2 373.4 1582.4 downs/higher initial markups, were large410.7 419.9 446.9 435.7 1713.2 ly behind the better-than-expected per481.6 475
485
478.4 1920 formance. And we think good results are
515
510
525
520 2070 in store for the balance of the year.
Full
EARNINGS PER SHARE AB
Fiscal Efforts to drive customer traffic are
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year bearing fruit. So far, adjustments to the
.28
.22
.11
d.12
.49 product assortment have been well.07
.04
.01
d.23
d.11 received by shoppers. Denim has been big
.08
.08
.13
.10
.39 in the core namesake chain. The introduc.20
.17
.18
.15
.70 tion of some color and wedding dresses at
.23
.22
.24
.21
.90
White House/Black Market (young woQUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID D
Full mens apparel) have gotten a warm welMar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year come, too. Customers also seem to like the
-----new merchandise at the Soma (intimates)
-----division. Meanwhile, despite the higher ex-----pense, the retailers marketing strategy,
-----involving a combination of TV and print
.04
.04
ads, appears to be paying off in the form of

increased store visits.


We look for margins to widen, as solid
comps and soaring online sales lead to better leverage. More full-priced selling, good
inventory control, and initiatives, such as
IT system upgrades and product-sourcing
enhancements, should aid the gross margin. Keeping SG&A costs in check will be
key, as well.
Expansion opportunities are vast
within the less mature concepts,
namely WH/BM and Soma, where additional stores could be added. The direct-toconsumer, or online, channel is another
avenue of growth we believe will contribute meaningfully to profits going forward.
Healthy finances, supported by a sizable
cash position and no debt, should also
make it possible to add a tuck-in acquisition down the road.
Untimely Chicos shares have longterm investment appeal. The stock price
recently fell, as Wall Street was likely
counting on even better first-quarter results. But upside potential now seems
more enticing based on the double-digit
profit growth we envision beyond 2010.
J. Susan Ferrara
August 6, 2010

ANNUAL RATES Past


of change (per sh) 10 Yrs.
Sales
29.0%
Cash Flow
26.0%
Earnings
16.0%
Dividends
-Book Value
36.0%
Fiscal
Year
Begins

5/1/10

60.4%
19.8%
250
28.4
38.0%
10.9%
25.5
7.2
85.3
31.0%
33.3%
33.3%
--

Past Estd 07-09


5 Yrs.
to 13-15
16.0%
7.0%
2.0% 15.0%
-15.0% 31.0%
-NMF
19.0% 11.0%

(A) Fiscal year ends the Saturday nearest January 31st of the following calendar year.
(B) Diluted earnings. Excl. loss on discontd
ops.: 07, 1. Excl. nonrec. gain: 07, 2. Next

earnings report due mid-Aug.


(C) In millions, adjusted for stock splits.
(D) Began paying dividends in 2010. Divd paid
in late March, June, Sept., and Dec.

2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

Companys Financial Strength


Stocks Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability

B+
20
50
30

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

CASUAL MALE RETAIL NDQ--CMRG


8.51
2.75

RANKS

3
3
4

PERFORMANCE
Technical
SAFETY
BETA 1.80

Below
Average

10.79
4.31

RELATIVE
DIVD
P/E RATIO 13.4 P/E RATIO 0.80 YLD
3.08 TRAILING
7.95
4.93

15.10
6.00

13.82
5.12

5.26
0.35

Nil
3.78
0.26

VALUE
LINE
4.49
2.20

High
Low

LEGENDS
12 Mos Mov Avg

Average
Average

9.44
1.95

RECENT
PRICE

. . . . Rel Price Strength

18

Shaded area indicates recession

13
8

(1.00 = Market)

Financial Strength

5
4
3

Price Stability

Price Growth Persistence

45

Earnings Predictability

15

VALUE LINE PUBLISHING, INC.


SALES PER SH
CASH FLOWPER SH
EARNINGS PER SH
DIVDS DECLD PER SH
BOOK VALUE PER SH
COMMON SHS OUTSTG (MILL)
AVG ANNL P/E RATIO
RELATIVE P/E RATIO
AVG ANNL DIVD YIELD
SALES ($MILL)
GROSS MARGIN
OPERATING MARGIN
NUMBER OF STORES
NET PROFIT ($MILL)
INCOME TAX RATE
NET PROFIT MARGIN
WORKING CAPL ($MILL)
LONG-TERM DEBT ($MILL)
SHR. EQUITY ($MILL)
RETURN ON TOTAL CAPL
RETURN ON SHR. EQUITY
RETAINED TO COM EQ
ALL DIVDS TO NET PROF

8200
VOL.
(thous.)

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

11.14
d.57
d1.22
-2.55
35.75
---398.3
31.4%
2.9%
555
d30.7
-NMF
50.2
106.6
91.1
NMF
NMF
NMF
--

12.25
d.02
d.27
-2.30
35.07
---429.5
37.5%
5.7%
480
d9.7
-NMF
48.4
122.4
80.8
NMF
NMF
NMF
--

10.67
.32
.03
-2.25
34.23
NMF
NMF
-365.0
41.2%
4.9%
527
1.0
-.3%
22.2
117.8
77.0
2.6%
1.3%
1.3%
--

12.23
.68
.30
-2.59
34.46
22.1
1.17
-421.4
43.2%
7.2%
518
10.8
-2.6%
33.3
95.4
89.2
7.5%
12.1%
12.1%
--

9.19
1.13
.98
-4.29
50.86
11.6
.63
-467.5
45.5%
8.9%
508
42.6
-9.1%
66.8
-218.0
19.6%
19.6%
19.6%
--

11.21
.52
.09
-4.40
41.39
NMF
NMF
-464.1
44.4%
6.0%
488
3.9
41.4%
.8%
41.0
12.5
181.9
2.3%
2.2%
2.2%
--

10.72
d1.08
d1.50
-1.73
41.45
---444.2
42.7%
2.6%
494
d62.0
-NMF
20.0
7.6
71.8
NMF
NMF
NMF
--

8.38
.46
.14
-1.98
47.17
14.0
.93
-395.2
44.2%
5.9%
479
6.1
19.4%
1.5%
45.6
2.7
93.2
6.9%
6.6%
6.6%
--

--.29 A,B
---10.6
-----------------

2011/2012

.34 C/NA

9.1/NA

Bold figures
are consensus
earnings
estimates
and, using the
recent prices,
P/E ratios.

ANo. of analysts changing earn. est. in last 17 days: 0 up, 0 down, consensus 5-year earnings growth 15.0% per year. BBased upon 3 analysts estimates. CBased upon 3 analysts estimates.

ANNUAL RATES
of change (per share)
Sales
Cash Flow
Earnings
Dividends
Book Value
Fiscal
Year

01/31/08
01/31/09
01/31/10
01/31/11
01/31/12
Calendar
2007
2008
2009
2010

2008
5.0
2.0
98.6
9.1
114.7

2009
4.3
2.5
90.0
8.4
105.2

5/ 1/10
5.6
2.4
98.7
9.9
116.6

Property, Plant
& Equip, at cost
Accum Depreciation
123.1 444.2 Net Property
110.7 395.2 Other
Total Assets

112.9
60.7
52.2
34.3
201.2

113.5
71.6
41.9
33.9
181.0

--39.4
33.8
189.8

1 Yr.
-22.0%
---14.0%

QUARTERLY SALES ($mill.)


1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q

01/31/09 107.6
01/31/10 97.6
01/31/11 95.2
01/31/12
Fiscal
Year

ASSETS ($mill.)
Cash Assets
Receivables
Inventory (Avg cost)
Other
Current Assets

5 Yrs.
-2.5%
---2.5%

113.5
98.2

100.0
88.7

Full
Year

LIABILITIES ($mill.)
Accts Payable
24.0
19.8
27.8
Debt Due
43.6
8.3
10.5
27.1
31.5
26.3
.04
.07
d.05
.03
.09 Other
94.7
59.6
64.6
-.05
d.08
d1.47 d1.50 Current Liab
-.09
d.03
.08
.14
.09
.09
.00
.10
LONG-TERM DEBT AND EQUITY
as of 5/ 1/10
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID Full
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
Year Total Debt $12.0 mill.
Due in 5 Yrs. NA
LT Debt $1.5 mill.
-----Including Cap. Leases NA
-----(1% of Capl)
-----Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals NA
--Pension Liability None in 09 vs. $3.2 mill. in 08
INSTITUTIONAL DECISIONS
Pfd Stock None
Pfd Divd Paid None
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
EARNINGS PER SHARE
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q

to Buy
to Sell
Hlds(000)

54
-35613

26
29
36024

Full
Year

32
24
35407

Common Stock 47,691,110 shares


(99% of Capl)

INDUSTRY: Retail (Special Lines)


BUSINESS: Casual Male Retail Group, Inc., together
with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty retailer of big &
tall mens apparel in the United States and London, England
and direct businesses throughout the United States, Canada,
and Europe. The company operates stores under Casual
Male XL, Casual Male XL Outlets, Rochester Clothing, B
& T Factory Direct, Shoes XL, and Living XL names. Its
retail stores offer a range of basic sportswear, other casual
apparel, dress wear, and accessories, as well as a line of its
private-label collections, such as Harbor Bay, 626 BlueVintage Surplus, Synrgy, Comfort Zone, and Oak Hill; and
casual clothing for the big and tall customers. The company
operates 457 Casual Male XL retail and outlet stores, 19
Rochester Clothing stores, and direct to consumer businesses that include several catalogs and e-commerce sites.
Has 2529 employees. C.E.O. & President: David Levin.
Address: 555 Turnpike Street, Canton, MA 02021. Tel.:
781-828-9300. Internet: http://www.casualmalexl.com.
S.J.
July 30, 2010
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN
Dividends plus appreciation as of 6/30/2010

3 Mos.

6 Mos.

1 Yr.

3 Yrs.

5 Yrs.

-11.40%

46.78%

56.16%

-66.14%

-53.21%

2010 Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

CITI TRENDS, INC. NDQ-CTRN


TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

1
3
4

RECENT
PRICE

19.5 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: NMF) P/E RATIO 1.11 YLD
32.71 P/ERATIO 17.7(Trailing:
High:
Low:

Raised 5/28/10

43.7
15.8

57.8
26.8

48.0
13.3

28.1
7.0

31.5
9.4

Nil

37.6
26.2

Target Price Range


2013 2014 2015

LEGENDS
12.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
Latest recession began 12/07

New 5/7/10
Lowered 8/6/10

BETA 1.35 (1.00 = Market)

2013-15 PROJECTIONS

VALUE
LINE
128
96
80
64
48
40
32
24

Annl Total
Price
Gain
Return
High
65 (+100%) 18%
Low
45 (+40%)
8%
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell

S
0
0
0

O
0
0
0

N
0
1
2

D
0
1
2

J
0
0
0

F
0
0
0

M
0
1
4

A
0
0
2

M
0
0
0

16
12
% TOT. RETURN 6/10

Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
58
to Buy
to Sell
58
Hlds(000) 15034

4Q2009
43
52
14992

1Q2010
47
49
14653

Percent
shares
traded

60
40
20

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
----------

----------

----------

----------

----------

----------

CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10


Total Debt Nil
Due in 5 Yrs Nil
LT Debt Nil
LT Interest Nil
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $27.1 mill.
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Common Stock 14,835,285 mill. shares
MARKET CAP: $475 million (Small Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
33.5
96.0
Receivables
--Inventory (LIFO)
86.3
100.9
Other
14.1
14.9
Current Assets
133.9
211.8
Accts Payable
52.3
62.7
Debt Due
1.4
-Other
20.2
25.9
Current Liab.
73.9
88.6
ANNUAL RATES Past
of change (per sh)
10 Yrs.
Sales
-Cash Flow
-Earnings
-Dividends
-Book Value
-Fiscal
Year
Begins

5/1/10
113.4
-95.7
14.1
223.2
61.3
-25.0
86.3

Past Estd 06-08


5 Yrs.
to 13-15
-7.0%
- - 13.0%
- - 16.0%
-Nil
- - 12.0%

QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.)A


Apr.30 Jul.31 Oct.31 Jan.31
2007 106.6
96.8 99.5 134.6
2008 121.0 115.6 105.0 146.6
2009 143.1 111.6 127.4 169.8
2010 181.4 140 147.5 196.1
2011 205
165 175
225
AB
Fiscal
EARNINGS
PER
SHARE
Year
Begins Apr.30 Jul.31 Oct.31 Jan.31
2007
.40
.04
d.04
.59
2008
.36
.20
d.05
.70
2009
.54 - .04
.78
2010
.86
.08
.06
.85
2011
.88
.16
.10
1.01
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID
Calendar Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31
2006
2007
NO CASH DIVIDENDS
2008
BEING PAID
2009
2010

Full
Fiscal
Year

437.5
488.2
551.9
665
770
Full
Fiscal
Year

1.00
1.22
1.36
1.85
2.15
Full
Year

----------

----------

----------

----------

----------

22.27
1.56
1.08
-6.44
13.01
26.4
1.41
--

27.66
2.15
1.51
-8.56
13.81
26.5
1.43
--

31.03
1.90
1.00
-9.80
14.10
29.5
1.57
--

34.15
2.35
1.22
-11.07
14.30
14.2
.85
--

37.14
2.56
1.36
-12.20
14.86
17.8
1.17
--

---------------

---------------

---------------

---------------

203.4
39.8%
8.6%
214
7.3
38.5%
3.6%
14.3
2.2
27.8
25.4%
26.2%
24.8%
--

289.8
40.4%
9.4%
235
14.2
34.7%
4.9%
62.6
.5
83.7
17.1%
17.0%
17.0%
--

381.9
40.5%
10.1%
277
21.4
33.2%
5.6%
88.3
3.0
118.2
17.8%
18.1%
18.1%
--

437.5
36.3%
7.1%
319
14.2
31.0%
3.2%
89.5
1.4
138.1
10.4%
10.3%
10.3%
--

488.2
38.2%
8.1%
357
17.4
31.2%
3.6%
60.0
-158.2
11.0%
11.0%
11.0%
--

551.9
38.5%
8.5%
403
19.7
31.5%
3.6%
123.2
-181.3
10.9%
10.9%
10.9%
--

44.35
3.05
1.85
Nil
14.35
15.00

45.30
3.50
2.15
Nil
15.00
17.00

Bold figures are


Value Line
estimates

665
39.0%
9.0%
450
28.0
31.5%
4.2%
170
Nil
215
13.0%
13.0%
13.0%
Nil

770
39.3%
9.2%
520
37.0
31.5%
4.8%
195
Nil
255
14.5%
14.5%
14.5%
Nil

THIS
STOCK

VL ARITH.
INDEX

27.3
-13.2
82.2

29.6
-8.6
24.0

VALUE LINE PUB., INC.

13-15

Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per shB
Divds Decld per sh
Book Value per sh
Common Shs OutstgC
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield

51.25
4.65
2.80
Nil
21.25
20.00
20.0
1.35
Nil

Sales ($mill)A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof

1025
41.0%
10.0%
600
56.0
32.0%
5.5%
310
Nil
425
13.0%
13.0%
13.0%
Nil

BUSINESS: Citi Trends is a value-priced urban fashion apparel and


accessories line of stores for the entire family. It offers quality,
branded apparel from nationally recognized brands as well as private label items and some home decor goods. It seeks to sell these
wares at 30% to 70% discounts to department store prices. Its merchandise is meant to appeal to fashion-conscious consumers, par-

ticularly African-Americans. As of January 30, 2010, it had 403


stores in both urban and rural markets in 24 states. Has 2,100 fulltime, and 2,500 part-time employees. Offs. and dirs. own 2.3% of
common. FMR LLC has 13.9%; Morgan Stanley has 10% (4/10
proxy). Address: 104 Coleman Boulevard, Savannah, Georgia
31408. Telephone: (912) 236 1561. Internet: www.cititrends.com.

Citi Trends has reached the apex of


our Timeliness Ranking System. The
companys April term (fiscal years end
January 31st) far exceeded both our and
the Streets expectations. Store checks all
turned out accelerating sales, and with
minimal in the way of discounting, thick
profits were reaped. Too, we look for these
good times to roll straight through the
summer months, as CTRNs customer base
picks up clothes for that season, and contributions from stores recently opened begin to pitch in.
We are lifting our targets across the
board. All told, we have tacked on $20
million to both our 2010 and 2011 revenue
calls, and a quarter and $0.15, respectively, to the corresponding share-net tallies
for those years. The seasonality of this
business will result in the bulk of these
earnings assumptions coming in the first
and fourth quarters (April and January).
The weather has provided a helping
hand. At the start of May, the retail industry in a number of CTRNs focus areas
(the Southeast, for example) were worried
that cold temperatures would lead to poor
showings. But, these regions heated up

quickly, and the summer buying season


kicked into high gear. The continuation of
this heat should propel dress sales
through the next few months, as well as
high-margin handbags and accessories.
In-house improvements were made at
a most opportune time. CTRN needs to
stay current on the trends that are hot in
its target demographics, namely young,
fashion-conscious African-Americans. The
implementation of a new warehouse management system has kept inventories at
desired levels, and gets the goods that are
in highest demand onto the shelves at the
necessary pace. Further, when these items
are at their height as far as demand goes,
little to no markdowns are necessary.
Therefore, they are sold at peak price
points. Elsewhere, management has intimated that the merchandise buying
backdrop remains ideal.
A new distribution center is in the
works. A facility in the Texas or Oklahoma area would be best. If such a space
cannot be found, the company will likely
construct its own. Store expansion should
rally following this occurrence.
Erik M. Manning
August 6, 2010

(A) Fiscal years end January 31st of the follow- (B) Next earnings report due late August.
ing calendar year. Figures may not sum due to
rounding

(C) In millions.

2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

Companys Financial Strength


Stocks Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability

B+
10
35
75

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

DRESS BARN NDQ-DBRN


TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

2
3
4

High:
Low:

Raised 8/6/10

RECENT
PRICE
4.9
3.1

7.6
3.4

7.8
4.8

8.8
5.5

14.2 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 14.0) P/E RATIO 0.71 YLD
24.11 P/ERATIO 11.3(Trailing:
7.9
6.1

9.7
7.3

19.6
8.3

LEGENDS
9.5 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Lowered 6/4/10
2-for-1 split 6/02
BETA 1.15 (1.00 = Market)
2-for-1 split 4/06
Options: Yes
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
Shaded area: prior recession
Annl Total Latest recession began 12/07

to Buy
Options
to Sell

O
0
0
0

N
0
1
1

24.7
12.1

17.9
6.2

23.6
7.5

30.6
22.7

D
0
0
0

J
0
0
0

F
0
0
0

M
0
0
1

A
0
0
0

64
48
40
32
24
20
16
12

2-for-1

2-for-1

M
0
1
1

8
6
% TOT. RETURN 6/10

Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
78
to Buy
to Sell
104
Hlds(000) 60931

4Q2009
105
128
69204

1Q2010
99
119
65122

Percent
shares
traded

24
16
8

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
5.15
.33
.20
-1.79
88.89
15.6
1.02
--

5.61
.36
.21
-2.00
89.26
12.1
.81
--

5.71
.38
.21
-2.21
90.27
12.0
.75
--

6.10
.53
.34
-2.56
90.97
11.1
.64
--

6.55
.63
.43
-2.91
91.36
15.4
.80
--

7.72
.71
.38
-3.18
79.75
10.0
.57
--

CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 4/24/10


Total Debt $26.4 mill. Due in 5 yrs $26.4 mill.
LT Debt $25.0 mill. LT Interest $1.3 mill.
(Total interest coverage: Over 25.0x) (2% of Capl)
Leases Uncapitalized Annual rentals $145.8 mill.
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Pfd Stock None
Common Stock 80,016,158 shs.
as of 5/28/10
MARKET CAP: $1.9 billion (Mid Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
219.9
353.8
Receivables
--Inventory(FIFO)
187.0
194.0
Other
24.9
17.8
Current Assets
431.8
565.6
Accts Payable
121.1
138.9
Debt Due
116.3
116.3
Other
94.1
105.9
Current Liab.
331.5
361.1
ANNUAL RATES Past
of change (per sh)
10 Yrs.
Sales
13.5%
Cash Flow
13.0%
Earnings
12.5%
Dividends
-Book Value
12.5%
Fiscal
Year
Ends

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Ends

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015

New 7/27/90

Price
Gain
Return
High
55 (+130%) 23%
Low
35 (+45%) 10%
Insider Decisions
S
0
0
0

28.1
16.9

Nil

4/24/10
347.3
-264.0
59.4
670.7
152.2
1.4
182.2
335.8

Past Estd 07-09


5 Yrs.
to 13-15
15.5% 10.5%
19.5% 12.5%
20.5% 16.0%
-Nil
16.5% 16.5%

QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.) A


Oct.Per Jan.Per Apr.Per Jul.Per
358.4 340.4 347.9 379.9
363.7 345.6 352.6 382.3
376.4 343.2 375.7 398.9
404.1 594.1 665.5 646.3
680
670
670
690
EARNINGS PER SHARE A B
Oct.Per Jan.Per Apr.Per Jul.Per
.40
.24
.33
.48
.30
.12
.39
.34
.30
d.02
.39
.41
.33
.28
.59
.50
.60
.45
.65
.50
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31
NO CASH DIVIDENDS
BEING PAID

Full
Fiscal
Year

1426.6
1444.2
1494.2
2310
2710
Full
Fiscal
Year

1.45
1.15
1.11
1.70
2.20
Full
Year

9.12
.80
.47
-3.61
71.94
9.3
.60
--

9.53
.81
.47
-4.07
72.95
13.0
.67
--

9.82
.84
.51
-4.58
73.02
13.2
.72
--

12.12
.85
.45
-3.89
58.34
15.4
.88
--

656.2
36.1%
10.9%
689
36.7
36.5%
5.6%
159.1
-259.6
14.2%
14.2%
14.2%
--

695.0
36.2%
10.2%
720
35.3
36.5%
5.1%
197.2
-296.6
11.9%
11.9%
11.9%
--

717.1
36.8%
10.8%
754
37.9
36.0%
5.3%
231.0
-334.3
11.4%
11.4%
11.4%
--

707.1
35.9%
8.7%
772
28.5
36.0%
4.0%
107.8
33.0
226.9
11.0%
12.6%
12.6%
--

12.74
.92
.50
-4.42
59.24
15.5
.82
--

16.56
1.15
.57
-5.18
60.41
16.2
.86
--

21.07
1.95
1.15
-6.63
61.72
16.7
.90
--

23.12
2.38
1.45
-8.26
61.69
14.7
.78
--

754.9 1000.3 1300.3 1426.6


36.8% 37.9% 40.5% 41.0%
9.3% 10.0% 13.4% 14.1%
776
1272
1339
1428
30.1
34.9
79.0 101.2
31.8% 40.3% 39.6% 36.2%
4.0%
3.5%
6.1%
7.1%
146.0
27.4 121.9 104.3
32.0 155.9 144.8
28.5
261.6 313.1 409.1 509.4
11.2%
8.5% 14.7% 19.0%
11.5% 11.1% 19.3% 19.9%
11.5% 11.1% 19.3% 19.9%
-----

THIS
STOCK

VL ARITH.
INDEX

66.5
16.0
110.4

29.6
-8.6
24.0

VALUE LINE PUB., INC.

24.81
1.96
1.11
-10.39
60.24
11.1
.73
--

28.90
2.60
1.70
-13.05
80.00
13.5
.80
--

33.90
3.25
2.20
Nil
15.25
80.00

Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh AB
Divds Decld per sh
Book Value per sh D
Common Shs Outstg
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield

1444.2 1494.2
38.7% 38.5%
11.1% 10.3%
1503
1559
74.1
69.7
36.2% 34.7%
5.1%
4.7%
100.3 204.5
27.3
26.1
556.1 626.1
12.8% 10.8%
13.3% 11.1%
13.3% 11.1%
---

2310
41.0%
10.5%
2490
130
39.0%
5.6%
220
25.0
1045
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
--

2710
42.0%
11.5%
2530
175
39.5%
6.5%
250
25.0
1220
14.0%
14.5%
14.5%
Nil

Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof

23.93
2.03
1.15
-9.21
60.36
12.4
.75
--

13-15
43.15
4.30
3.00
Nil
23.15
80.00
15.0
1.00
Nil
3450
42.5%
13.0%
2800
240
39.0%
7.0%
300
30.0
1850
13.0%
13.0%
13.0%
Nil

BUSINESS: The Dress Barn, Inc. operates 840 apparel stores in


47 states. The company oversees stores under the Dress Barn
(smaller sizes) and Dress Barn Woman (larger sizes) names,
which offer womens career and casual fashions at value prices to
customers age 35 and above. Acquired Maurices (749 stores), a
small-town teenage and young adult apparel retailer, in 1/05.

Bought Tween Brands (operates 884 Justice stores for 7-14 yearold girls), in 11/09. Has 14,100 employees including 8,600 part
timers. Officers and directors own 23.3% of common stock; four
funds own 29.5% (11/09 proxy). Chrmn: Elliot S. Jaffe. Pres. &
CEO: David R. Jaffe. Inc.: CT. Address: 30 Dunnigan Drive, Suffern, NY 10901. Tel.: 845-369-4500. Internet: www.dressbarn.com.

The just completed fiscal year was a


memorable one for Dress Barn. The
main event was the November, 2009 acquisition of Tween Brands (selling to 7 to
14-year-old girls). The company also
redeemed its $112 million convertible issue, and repaid $160 million of Tween
Brands debt. Finally, share earnings likely topped the previous 2007 peak by more
than 15%, with some benefit realized from
fiscal 2010 having a 53rd week.
A strong earnings improvement is
likely in fiscal 2011 (ends June 30,
2011). For starters, The company will
have 12 months of a growing earnings contribution from the Justice chain compared
with eight months last year. Moreover,
theres significant savings to be realized
from the merger (since only the obvious
changes have been made). We also look for
sales of the Dress Barn and Maurices
chains to benefit from trend-right fashions, and new marketing programs. Finally, Dress Barn wont have interest expense
on its convertible note, saving a few pennies a share.
Dress Barn has several options for its
excess cash. The companys cash and in-

vestments exceed $340 million. That total


ought to increase since Dress Barn generates over $100 million of free cash flow annually. The likely options are another acquisition (management has a good record
in this area), and share repurchases. We
also believe a one-time dividend (which
might be appropriate given prospective
dividend tax changes, and managements
substantial stock ownership position) is a
good possibility. We think DBs directors
will wait until late in the calendar year before making any decisions.
We believe Dress Barn will consider
becoming a holding company. Under
this format, it would have a headquarters
group running various administrative
tasks, and each chain having separate
marketing, merchandising, and field operations personnel. Leaders from past and
future deals would helm these divisions
This issue is well ranked ranked for
Timeliness. Our 3- to 5-year projections
suggest longer-term Dress Barn shareholders will also achieve healthy returns,
particularly if Tween Brands margins return to prior peaks.
Jerome H. Kaplan
August 6, 2010

(A) Fiscal year ends last Saturday in July.


ings dont add to total due to change in shares (D) Includes intangibles. At 4/24/10 $415.6 mill.
(B) Primary egs. through fiscal 1997, then
outstanding. Next egs. report due September
$5.19/sh.
diluted. Excl. nonrecurring gain (losses): 94,
15th. (C) In millions, adjusted for stock splits.
($0.02); 03,($0.64); 05, $0.58. Quarterly earn 2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

Companys Financial Strength


Stocks Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability

A
45
75
70

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

GAP, INC. (THE) NYSE-GPS


TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

3
2
3

High:
Low:

Lowered 7/23/10

52.7
30.8

RECENT
PRICE
53.8
18.5

35.0
11.1

17.1
8.4

10.6 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 18.0) P/E RATIO 0.63 YLD 2.3%
18.29 P/ERATIO 10.0(Trailing:
23.5
12.0

25.7
18.1

22.7
15.9

21.4
15.9

22.0
15.2

21.9
9.4

23.4
9.6

26.3
17.8

Target Price Range


2013 2014 2015

LEGENDS
9.5 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Raised 7/23/10
3-for-2 split 12/97
BETA 1.00 (1.00 = Market)
3-for-2 split 12/98
3-for-2 split 6/99
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
Options: Yes
Annl Total Shaded area: prior recession
Price
Gain
Return Latest recession began 12/07

Raised 2/6/09

High
40 (+120%)
Low
30 (+65%)
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell

S
0
2
5

O
0
3
2

N
0
2
1

D
0
0
1

J
0
1
1

F
0
0
2

VALUE
LINE
64
48
40
32
24
20
16
12

24%
15%
M
0
2
5

A
0
3
2

M
0
0
1

8
6
% TOT. RETURN 6/10

Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
233
217
170
to Buy
to Sell
207
228
260
Hlds(000) 454825 441499 425984

Percent
shares
traded

24
16
8

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
3.81
4.53
5.70
7.36 10.55 13.68 16.01 16.00 16.29 17.67 18.90 18.70 19.59 21.48
.50
.57
.72
.91
1.34
1.84
1.72
1.09
1.42
1.89
2.06
2.03
1.61
1.93
.33
.36
.47
.58
.91
1.26
1.00
.15
.54
1.09
1.21
1.24
.93
1.09
.07
.07
.09
.09
.09
.09
.09
.09
.09
.09
.09
.18
.32
.32
1.41
1.69
1.79
1.79
1.83
2.63
3.43
3.48
4.12
5.33
5.74
6.33
6.36
5.82
977.16 971.15 926.50 884.55 857.96 850.50 854.00 865.73 887.32 897.20 860.56 856.99 813.87 734.00
17.9
15.0
19.0
22.3
29.2
33.5
32.5
NMF
25.2
16.7
17.7
15.8
19.8
17.2
1.17
1.00
1.19
1.29
1.52
1.91
2.11
NMF
1.38
.95
.94
.84
1.07
.91
1.2%
1.3%
1.0%
.7%
.3%
.2%
.3%
.4%
.7%
.5%
.4%
.9%
1.7%
1.7%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10
Total Debt None
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $1.0 bill.
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Pfd Stock None
Common Stock 650,593,000 shs.
as of 6/4/10
MARKET CAP: $11.9 billion (Large Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
1756
2591
Receivables
--Inventory (FIFO)
1506
1477
Other
743
596
Current Assets
4005
4664
Accts Payable
975
1027
Debt Due
50
-Other
1133
1104
Current Liab.
2158
2131

5/1/10
2498
-1534
632
4664
1052
-1039
2091

13673 13848 14455


41.4% 37.2% 39.4%
14.9%
9.8% 12.4%
3676
4171
4252
877.5 128.9 477.5
36.5% 71.1% 40.4%
6.4%
.9%
3.3%
d151.0 988.4 3013.1
780.3 1961.4 2895.8
2928.2 3009.6 3658.2
24.5%
3.4%
8.9%
30.0%
4.3% 13.1%
27.4%
1.7% 10.9%
9%
59%
16%

15854
41.8%
16.0%
3022
1030.0
38.8%
6.5%
4197.0
2487.0
4783.0
15.6%
21.5%
19.9%
8%

16267 16023 15943 15763


43.0% 40.5% 38.8% 39.6%
16.6% 14.8% 10.7% 11.8%
2994
3053
3131
3167
1150.0 1113.0 778.0 867.0
38.6% 37.9% 38.4% 38.3%
7.1%
6.9%
4.9%
5.5%
4062.0 3297.0 2757.0 1653.0
1886.0 513.0 188.0
50.0
4936.0 5425.0 5174.0 4274.0
17.9% 19.1% 14.9% 20.4%
23.3% 20.5% 15.0% 20.3%
21.7% 17.2%
9.9% 14.4%
7%
16%
34%
29%

THIS
STOCK

VL ARITH.
INDEX

20.8
7.9
7.2

29.6
-8.6
24.0

VALUE LINE PUB., INC.

13-15

20.93 21.00 22.65 24.35


2.21
2.48
2.90
3.10
1.34
1.58
1.82
2.00
.34
.34
.40
.44
6.32
7.24
7.55
8.15
694.00 676.00 645.00 620.00
12.5
11.2 Bold figures are
Value Line
.75
.75
estimates
2.0%
1.9%

Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh B
Divds Decld per sh C
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg D
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield

28.50
3.75
2.65
.55
11.60
570.00
13.5
.90
1.3%

14526 14197
41.4% 44.4%
14.6% 16.8%
3149
3095
967.0 1102.0
39.0% 39.3%
6.7%
7.8%
1847.0 2533.0
50.0
-4387.0 4891.0
22.1% 22.5%
22.0% 22.5%
16.5% 17.7%
25%
21%

Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof

16250
45.1%
17.8%
3100
1540
39.0%
9.5%
3300
Nil
6600
23.5%
23.5%
18.5%
21%

14600
44.6%
17.1%
3055
1215
39.0%
8.3%
2500
Nil
4885
25.0%
25.0%
19.5%
22%

14950
44.8%
17.4%
3040
1300
39.0%
8.7%
2600
Nil
5050
25.5%
25.5%
20.0%
22%

BUSINESS: The Gap, Inc. operated 3,095 casual apparel specialty


stores with about 39 million square feet of selling space as of
1/30/10. Gap and GapKids (1,152 U.S. and 298 foreign stores) sell
jeans, sweatsuits, shirts, sweaters, and related apparel. Banana
Republic (606 stores; incl. 27 in Asia) sells upscale casual wear.
Old Navy (1,039 stores) sells budget-priced clothing. Gap, Banana

Republic, and Old Navy have Internet sites. All merchandise is private label. Foreign sales were 18% of 09 total. Has about 134,000
employees. Fisher family owns about 35.0% of stock. Other officers
and directors, less than 1% (March 2010 proxy). Chairman & CEO.
Glenn Murphy. Inc.: Delaware. Addr.: Two Folsom St., San Francisco, CA 94105. Telephone: 650-952-4400. Internet: www.gap.com.

Thanks mainly to a strong start, a


gain in share net of about 15% on a 3%
ANNUAL RATES Past
Past Estd 07-09
top-line advance appears to be in the
of change (per sh)
10 Yrs.
5 Yrs.
to 13-15
cards for The Gap in fiscal 2010 (ends
Sales
7.0%
3.5%
5.0%
Cash Flow
5.0%
4.5%
9.5%
January 29, 2011). In the April interim,
Earnings
4.0%
7.0% 12.0%
the best performance was posted by the
Dividends
14.0% 30.0%
8.5%
Old Navy chain, whose same-store sales
Book Value
12.0%
5.0% 10.0%
were up 7%. This barometers overall inA
Full
Fiscal
QUARTERLY
SALES
($
mill.)
Fiscal crease of 4% was a considerable improveYear
Begins Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
ment over results in the previous nine
2007 3549 3685 3854 4675 15763 months. Also, the leveraging benefits from
2008 3384 3499 3561 4082 14526
2009 3127 3245 3589 4236 14197 the higher sales on fixed costs and
2010 3329 3340 3620 4311 14600 numerous recent operating efficiencies
2011 3385 3425 3710 4430 14950 meaningfully boosted margins in the
quarter. However, tougher comparisons, as
Full
Fiscal
EARNINGS PER SHARE A B
Fiscal well as elevated clearance activity related
Year
Begins Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
to summer apparel, suggest that earnings
2007
.25
.19
.30
.35
1.09
2008
.34
.32
.34
.34
1.34 will only modestly exceed the prior years
2009
.31
.33
.44
.50
1.58 levels during the balance of fiscal 2010.
2010
.45
.36
.46
.55
1.82 Earnings-growth prospects for the
2011
.45
.43
.52
.60
2.00 coming three years are relatively well
defined, thanks to numerous strong
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID C
CalFull
endar Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year points. The most obvious one is size. The
Gap is one of the largest specialty retailers
2006 .045
.08
.08
.08
.29
2007 .08
.08
.08
.08
.32 in the world. That factor alone gives it a
2008 .085
.085
.085
.085
.34 competitive edge in such sectors as the
2009 .085
.085
.085
.085
.34 purchase of merchandise, advertising, and
the leasing of selling space. Another
2010 .10
.10

strength is the companys strategy of selling its goods through a number of chains
The Gap, Gap Kids, Banana Republic, and
Old Navythat cater to different age and
income groups. Too, The Gap is extending
its store network in Europe and Asia. The
major wild card is consumer discretionary
spending, which is beyond its control.
The share count has decreased 24%
since the close of fiscal 2005. Part of
the funds for these stock purchases came
from cash assets, which stood at $2.6 billion at May 1st. Net of budgeted capital
expenditures of about $400 million and
probable divided payments, this years estimated cash flow is about $1.2 billion.
Much of the capital budget is earmarked
for an accelerated store-renovation program in the United States. Domestic store
closings this year are slated to exceed additions in foreign markets.
This neutrally ranked stock offers attractive appreciation potential for the
pull to 20132015, following a share-price
decline of about 25% over the past three
months. A relatively high Earnings Predictability score is another plus.
David R. Cohen
August 6, 2010

(A) Fiscal year ends Sat. closest to Jan. 31st of


the following calendar year.
(B) Diluted earnings. Excl. loss on discontinued
operations/nonrecurrings: 01, 16; 07, 4.

Next earnings report due late Aug.


(C) Dividends historically paid in mid-March,
mid-June, early October, and late December.
(D) In millions, adjusted for stock splits.

2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

Companys Financial Strength


Stocks Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability

A+
75
20
80

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

HOT TOPIC, INC. NDQ-HOTT


TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

5
3
2

High:
Low:

Lowered 7/2/10

6.0
1.3

RECENT
PRICE
9.6
3.3

17.0
7.1

LEGENDS
7.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Lowered 8/6/10
2-for-1 split 12/99
BETA .70 (1.00 = Market)
2-for-1 split 12/00
3-for-2 split 2/02
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
3-for-2 split 9/03
Annl Total Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
Price
Gain
Return
Latest recession began 12/07
High
15 (+165%) 30%

S
0
0
0

O
0
1
1

N
0
0
0

31.4
13.6

32.3
13.9

23.5
13.3

15.6
9.4

14.0
5.4

9.4
3.9

13.9
5.3

10.0
4.7

D
0
0
0

J
0
0
0

F
0
0
0

3-for-2

40
32
24

3-for-2

16
12
10
8
6

19%

M
0
0
0

A
0
5
0

M
0
0
0

4
% TOT. RETURN 6/10

Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
55
to Buy
to Sell
86
Hlds(000) 44339

4Q2009
72
70
43846

VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015

Raised 5/8/09

Low
10 (+75%)
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell

18.8
9.9

28.2 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 23.0) P/E RATIO 1.78 YLD 5.0%
5.65 P/ERATIO 28.3(Trailing:

1Q2010
62
67
38990

Percent
shares
traded

90
60
30

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

THIS
STOCK

VL ARITH.
INDEX

-29.9
-52.9
-73.2

29.6
-8.6
24.0

Hot Topic opened its first store in 1989. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 VALUE LINE PUB., INC. 13-15
On September 23, 1996, an initial public of- 5.63 7.14 9.47 11.89 14.72 16.49 16.99 16.66 17.32 16.62 16.10 16.55 Sales per sh A
19.55
fering of 7,800,000 shares were sold at the
.70
.84
1.07
1.39
1.44
1.25
1.19
1.32
1.32
1.13
1.10
1.25 Cash Flowper sh
1.75
price of $3.00 a share (adjusted for splits).
.48
.57
.70
.97
.83
.49
.30
.36
.45
.27
.20
.30 Earnings per sh AB
.70
Montgomery Securities and Robertson,
--------.28
--.21
.28 Divds Decld per sh D
Stephens & Company were the main un- 2.17 2.88 3.44 4.65 4.21 4.57 5.01 5.38
5.88
6.25
5.10
5.10 Book Value per sh
6.10
derwriters.
45.66 47.06 46.81 48.12 44.59 43.98 44.23 43.70 43.95 44.34 45.00 45.00 Common Shs Outstg C
45.00

CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10


Total Debt None
LT Debt None
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $58.5 mill.
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Common Stock 44,506,012 shs.
as of 5/19/10
MARKET CAP: $250 million (Small Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
97.5
123.1
Receivables
--Inventory (Avg Cst)
79.9
76.5
Other
20.3
20.5
Current Assets
197.7
220.1
Accts Payable
19.5
20.2
Debt Due
--Other
52.6
41.4
Current Liab.
72.1
61.6

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

68.8
-78.7
23.9
171.4
24.4
-33.3
57.7

22.7
1.16
--

21.1
1.15
--

22.2
1.27
--

24.4
1.29
--

36.1
1.92
--

41.7
2.25
--

24.7
1.31
--

13.9
.84
--

29.5
1.97
--

257.2
43.4%
17.0%
274
23.3
37.0%
9.0%
61.2
1.4
99.3
23.1%
23.4%
23.4%
--

336.1
42.3%
16.4%
352
28.6
37.9%
8.5%
82.4
.2
135.4
21.1%
21.1%
21.1%
--

443.3
41.8%
15.7%
445
34.6
38.0%
7.8%
90.4
.1
160.9
21.5%
21.5%
21.5%
--

572.0
41.8%
16.7%
554
48.0
38.3%
8.4%
141.9
-223.9
21.5%
21.5%
21.5%
--

656.5
39.4%
13.4%
668
39.7
38.3%
6.0%
87.3
-187.6
21.2%
21.2%
21.2%
--

725.1
37.0%
8.9%
783
22.4
38.1%
3.1%
70.6
-201.1
11.2%
11.2%
11.2%
--

751.6
38.3%
8.1%
825
13.6
40.8%
1.8%
91.3
-221.5
6.2%
6.2%
6.2%
--

728.1
40.2%
9.0%
841
16.0
39.0%
2.2%
97.8
-235.2
6.8%
6.8%
6.8%
--

761.1
40.9%
9.1%
840
19.7
39.2%
2.6%
125.6
-258.4
7.6%
7.6%
7.6%
--

736.7
40.0%
7.8%
836
11.9
39.9%
1.6%
158.5
-277.1
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
--

Bold figures are


Value Line
estimates

Avg Annl P/E Ratio


Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield

725
39.5%
7.5%
830
9.0
40.0%
1.2%
115
Nil
230
4.0%
4.0%
NMF
106%

Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof

745
40.0%
8.5%
840
13.5
40.0%
1.8%
105
Nil
230
6.0%
6.0%
.5%
93%

18.0
1.20
2.2%
880
41.5%
11.0%
870
32.0
40.0%
3.6%
110
Nil
275
11.5%
11.5%
7.0%
39%

BUSINESS: Hot Topic, Inc. is a mall-based specialty retailer of


music-influenced and licensed apparel and accessories. Its target
market is males and females between the ages of 12 and 22. Torrid
sells music-inspired apparel and accessories for plus-size females,
ages 15 to 29. Operates 680 Hot Topic stores and 156 Torrid shops
(as of 1/30/10) in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. Also sells merchandise

through its website. Hot Topic stores average approx. 1,760 sq. ft.;
Torrid, 2,500 sq. ft. Has abt 9,300 empls. (incl. 2,500 full-time).
Chrmn.: Bruce Quinnell. CEO: Elizabeth McLaughlin. Insiders own
8.0% of common stock; FMR LLC, 12.9%; BlackRock, 8.5% (4/10
proxy). Inc.: CA. Addr.: 18305 E. San Jose Ave., City of Industry,
CA 91748. Tel.: 626-839-4681. Internet: www.hottopic.com.

Shares of Hot Topic have tumbled


some 25% since we went to press three
months ago, and now garner our Lowest Timeliness rank. The decline in price
largely reflects the weak start to fiscal
2010 (began January 31st), as well as
managements disappointing guidance for
the July quarter. Indeed,
Full
QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.) A
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year Business has yet to heat up. In fact,
comp-store sales at the punky teen retailer
157.3 161.7 188.4 220.7
728.1 have slipped of late. Trends have suffered
159.0 166.8 197.3 238.0
761.1
175.1 157.8 189.6 214.2
736.7 across all categories, with a few pockets of
162.6
155
190 217.4
725 strength. The licensed goods category has
165
160
195
225
745 been one such exception, where comps
recently jumped, thanks, in part, to
Full
EARNINGS PER SHARESAVE AB
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year vampire-themed merchandise related to
Eclipse (the sequel to the teen vampire
d.02
d.04
.15
.27
.36
d.03
d.01
.17
.32
.45 movie Twilight). Still, we doubt that
.03
d.07
.13
.18
.27 Eclipse-related sales will keep up much
d.04 d.10
.13
.21
.20 longer. Demand will likely wane, esd.01 d.08
.15
.24
.30 pecially considering the increased availability of these items at other merchants.
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID D
Full
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year The retailer hopes to drum up sales
through broader music and merchan-----dise offerings. Rather than relying on
-----major licenses to drive traffic, HOTT has
-----been aiming to broaden the store concepts
-----appeal so as to attract a more mainstream
-.07
.07

audience, without alienating the core customer. It now offers a wider selection of
music genres and related products that appeal to a larger teen base, as opposed to offering only its traditional music types (i.e.,
alternative rock, punk).
We still expect Torrid and ShockHound to be instrumental to profit
growth going forward. The former has
good expansion potential, given the underserved niche that it targets plus-sized
girls. ShockHound also presents growth
opportunities. The Web site, which features millions of MP3s and other exclusive
content, and enables fans and established/emerging artists to network, has
been a hit so far. Despite development
costs of about $0.07 per share a year, the
online initiative should contribute to profits in time. HOTT continues to seek out
partnerships with high-traffic sites.
At this juncture, total return potential
is enticing here, based on a dividend
well-covered by cash flow and on the earnings advances we envision three to five
years from now, though a turnaround in
the business is far from certain.
J. Susan Ferrara
August 6, 2010

ANNUAL RATES Past


of change (per sh) 10 Yrs.
Sales
25.5%
Cash Flow
22.0%
Earnings
13.5%
Dividends
-Book Value
18.0%
Fiscal
Year
Begins

5/1/10

14.4
.94
--

Past Estd 07-09


5 Yrs.
to 13-15
12.5%
2.0%
3.0%
4.5%
-13.0%
9.5%
-NMF
8.0%
1.5%

(A) Fiscal year ends on Saturday closest to


January 31st of the following year.
(B) Diluted earnings. Qtly. EPS may not add to
total due to rounding/diff. in shares outstand-

ing. Next earnings report due mid-Aug.


Nov. Special dividend of $1.00/sh. paid 5/10.
(C) In millions, adjusted for stock splits.
(D) Began paying dividends in 2010. Estimated
dividend pmt. dates: early Feb., May, Aug.,

2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

Companys Financial Strength


Stocks Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability

B
30
20
60

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

J. CREW GROUP, INC. NYSE-JCG


TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

3
3
4

RECENT
PRICE

15.9 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: NMF) P/E RATIO 0.92 YLD
35.69 P/ERATIO 14.6(Trailing:
High:
Low:

Lowered 8/6/10

43.6
24.0

57.2
33.5

50.3
8.0

46.6
8.6

Nil

51.0
32.2

Target Price Range


2013 2014 2015

LEGENDS
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
Latest recession began 12/07

New 2/9/07
Raised 7/30/10

BETA 1.40 (1.00 = Market)

VALUE
LINE
128
96
80
64
48
40
32
24

2013-15 PROJECTIONS

Annl Total
Price
Gain
Return
High
80 (+125%) 22%
Low
50 (+40%)
9%
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell

S
0
3
5

O
0
1
1

N
1
0
0

D
1
2
2

J
0
0
0

F
0
0
0

M
1
0
0

A
0
0
1

M
0
0
0

16
12
% TOT. RETURN 6/10

Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
128
to Buy
to Sell
66
Hlds(000) 67980

4Q2009
143
94
65179

1Q2010
121
125
64113

Percent
shares
traded

30
20
10

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

J. Crew was founded in New York in 1983. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
It recapitalized in 1997 when the private
---- - 60.89 35.94 19.65 21.68 22.84 24.74 27.20 29.60
equity firm Texas Pacific Group purchased a
---- - d4.79
1.40
1.58
2.13
1.59
2.75
3.20
3.35
majority stake in the retailer. The company
---- - d7.60
d.39
1.05
1.52
.87
1.91
2.45
2.70
reincorporated in Delaware in 2005, and
----------Nil
Nil
held an initial public offering in June 2006. It
---- - d44.05 d22.16
.10
2.28
3.60
5.89
8.00 10.00
sold 21.6 million shares at a price of $20 per
---- - 13.21 26.52 58.65 61.57 62.53 63.78 64.50 65.00
share, and received net proceeds of $402.8
------18.3
28.8
34.1
15.0 Bold figures are
Value Line
million. Goldman Sachs and Bear Stearns
------.99
1.53
2.05
1.00
estimates
acted as lead underwriters for the offering.
----------CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10
Total Debt $49.2 mill. Due in 5 Yrs $49.2
LT Debt $49.2 mill.
LT Interest $3.0 mill.
(LT interest earned: 41.6x; total interest coverage:
37.2x)
(10% of Capl)
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $92.0 mill.
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Pfd Stock None
Common Stock 63,822,629 shs.
as of 5/14/10
MARKET CAP: $2.3 billion (Mid Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
146.4
298.1
Receivables
--Inventory (avg. cost) 187.0
190.2
Other
58.1
31.0
Current Assets
391.5
519.3
Accts Payable
119.7
127.7
Debt Due
.8
-Other
88.0
107.6
Current Liab.
208.5
235.3
ANNUAL RATES Past
of change (per sh)
10 Yrs.
Sales
-Cash Flow
-Earnings
-Dividends
-Book Value
-Fiscal
Year
Begins

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

5/1/10
332.3
-193.1
27.6
553.0
105.4
-109.4
214.8

Past Estd 07-09


5 Yrs.
to 13-15
-8.5%
-9.5%
- - 14.5%
-Nil
- - 25.5%

Full
QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.) A
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
297.3 304.7 332.8 399.9 1334.7
340.6 336.3 363.1 388.0 1428.0
345.8 357.5 414.1 460.6 1578.0
413.9 401.1 445
495
1755
450
435
495
545
1925
Full
EARNINGS PER SHARE A B
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
.39
.32
.42
.39
1.52
.48
.28
.30
d.19
.87
.32
.29
.67
.61
1.91
.68
.44
.71
.62
2.45
.70
.50
.80
.70
2.70
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID
Full
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year

NO CASH DIVIDENDS
BEING PAID

(A) Fiscal year ends Saturday closest to January 31st of the following year.
(B) Diluted earnings. Results prior to 6/06 IPO
are pro forma. Next earnings report due late

---------------

---------------

---------------

- - 804.2 953.2 1152.1 1334.7


- - 45.1% 45.3% 46.3% 46.7%
-9.3% 11.9% 13.8% 15.5%
---227
260
- - d100.3
3.8
65.2
97.1
-- - 42.5% 38.6% 39.8%
-NMF
.4%
5.7%
7.3%
-12.2
72.7 117.1 138.0
- - 576.9 631.9 200.0 125.0
- - d488.9 d495.0
5.6 140.3
-NMF 29.6% 36.4% 38.7%
---NMF 69.2%
---NMF 69.2%
------

1428.0 1578.0
42.0% 47.4%
9.9% 16.7%
300
321
55.3 123.4
39.1% 40.1%
3.9%
7.8%
183.0 284.0
99.2
49.2
224.9 375.9
18.0% 29.6%
24.6% 32.8%
24.6% 32.8%
---

1755
47.7%
17.5%
336
160
40.0%
9.1%
300
35.0
515
29.0%
31.0%
31.0%
Nil

1925
47.7%
17.5%
365
175
40.0%
9.1%
300
20.0
650
27.0%
27.5%
27.5%
Nil

THIS
STOCK

VL ARITH.
INDEX

36.2
-31.9

29.6
-8.6
24.0

VALUE LINE PUB., INC.

13-15

Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh A B
Divds Decld per sh
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg C
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield

37.50
3.70
3.25
Nil
15.15
66.00
20.0
1.35
Nil

Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof

2475
46.5%
15.5%
450
215
40.0%
8.7%
400
50.0
1000
20.5%
21.5%
21.5%
Nil

BUSINESS: J. Crew Group, Inc. is an apparel retailer that offers


clothing, shoes, and accessories for men, women, and children. It
designs, markets, distributes, and contracts the manufacturing of its
products under the J. Crew brand name, primarily in the United
States. It sells its clothing in 246 retail and 81 outlet stores throughout the U.S., plus catalog and Internet operations. Includes 17

womens wear stores that operate under the Madewell label. Has
about 12,000 employees. Officers & directors own 13.6% of common stock; five financial institutions combined, 40.3% (4/10 Proxy).
Chairman & CEO: Millard Drexler. Incorporated: Delaware. Address: 770 Broadway, New York, New York 10003. Telephone:
212-209-2500. Internet: www.jcrew.com.

J. Crew started fiscal 2010 (ends January 29, 2011) on a high note. Share net
in the April period more than doubled over
the depressed fiscal 2009 tally. Revenue
jumped 20% while comparable-store sales
were up 15% and margins expanded.
The remainder of the fiscal year
ought to be strong, as well. Comparisons grow more difficult as the year
progresses, so the pace of earnings growth
will likely slow from the recent breakneck
speed. Nonetheless, we still expect the bottom line to expand at a healthy pace this
year. Inventory has been well managed
(JCG entered the July period with inventory down 4% year to year on a persquare-foot basis) and the companys design team continues to churn out compelling merchandise. This combination has resulted in wider margins thanks to reduced
markdowns and more items moving at full
price. Meanwhile, strong brand momentum and innovative product, including
numerous design collaborations with classic brands (Alden, Levis, Ray-Ban, etc.)
should
drive
comps.
Additionally,
Madewell is beginning to come into its own
and now has its own e-commerce site,

though the brand will probably not be


profitable for some time. Mens and childrens clothing is picking up steam, and
select J. Crew merchandise is now available internationally through the fashion
Web site Net-a-porter.com. All told, we
look for the company to earn about $2.45 a
share this fiscal year, up from our previous call of $2.30. Additionally, our fiscal
2011 share-net estimate moves from $2.55
to $2.70.
The issues recent valuation is compelling. J. Crews share price has fallen
sharply over the past three months,
presenting value investors with an attractive entry point, in our view. Indeed, the
issues price to earnings multiple is now
under 15, which we think is quite reasonable given the companys historical
multiple and the fact that it is a standout
in the specialty retail space. Growth investors will probably like the price as well,
along with the double-digit earnings
growth we are looking for both this fiscal
year and next. Over the coming six to 12
months, the stock is ranked to mirror the
broader market averages.
Matthew E. Spencer
August 6, 2010

August. Excludes nonrecurring gain/(loss): 06,


$0.44; 08, ($0.02). Totals may not sum due to
rounding/change in shares outstanding.
(C) In millions.

2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

Companys Financial Strength


Stocks Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability

B++
20
NMF
NMF

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

JOS. A. BANK NDQ-JOSB


TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

1
3
3

RECENT
PRICE

High:
Low:

Raised 5/7/10

2.6
0.6

1.8
0.9

2.6
1.2

7.8
1.9

14.8 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 12.0) P/E RATIO 0.84 YLD
40.11 P/ERATIO 13.4(Trailing:
15.5
5.2

LEGENDS
9.5 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Lowered 5/14/10
3-for-2 split 2/04
BETA 1.15 (1.00 = Market)
5-for-4 split 8/04
5-for-4 split 2/06
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
3-for-2 split 8/10
Annl Total Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
Price
Gain
Return
Latest recession began 12/07
High
60 (+50%) 11%

to Buy
Options
to Sell

O
0
0
0

N
0
0
0

27.1
14.1

32.1
14.8

30.8
16.4

27.8
10.3

32.6
13.1

43.7
26.3

D
0
1
1

J
0
0
0

F
0
0
0

A
2
0
0

128
96
80
64
48
40
32
24

3-for-2
5-for-4
3-for-1

Nil

M
0
0
0

5-for-4
M
0
0
0

16
12
% TOT. RETURN 6/10

Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
87
to Buy
to Sell
99
Hlds(000) 29621

4Q2009
79
100
28758

1Q2010
75
98
29535

Percent
shares
traded

90
60
30

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
----------

7.10
d.36
d.55
-1.48
23.87
----

6.49
.17
.01
-1.50
23.88
NMF
NMF
--

7.21
.25
.10
-1.52
23.88
13.1
.76
--

7.84
.42
.24
-1.77
23.88
8.7
.45
--

8.06
.31
.14
-1.82
24.01
10.7
.61
--

CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10


Total Debt None
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $57.5 mill.
Pension Assets-1/10 $1.1 mill. Oblig. $1.0 mill.
Pfd Stock None
Common Stock 27,526,743 shs.
as of 5/26/10
MARKET CAP: $1.1 billion (Mid Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
122.9
191.6
Receivables
7.4
5.9
Inventory (FIFO)
209.2
218.3
Other
17.8
16.0
Current Assets
357.3
431.8
Accts Payable
29.8
18.2
Debt Due
--Other
81.4
90.3
Current Liab.
111.2
108.5
ANNUAL RATES Past
of change (per sh)
10 Yrs.
Sales
12.5%
Cash Flow
24.5%
Earnings
29.5%
Dividends
-Book Value
21.5%
Fiscal
Year
Begins

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015

New 5/9/08

Low
40
(Nil)
Insider Decisions
S
0
0
2

17.8
9.9

Nil

5/1/10
186.3
15.5
213.4
25.1
440.3
30.7
-74.7
105.4

Past Estd 07-09


5 Yrs.
to 13-15
14.5%
9.0%
23.0% 10.0%
26.5% 12.0%
-Nil
26.5% 18.5%

QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.)A


Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per
129.5 134.3 131.3 208.9
145.4 152.7 149.3 248.5
161.9 167.7 161.3 279.4
178.1 182
180
304.9
200
215
195
325
EARNINGS PER SHARE AB
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per
.30
.29
.26
.96
.35
.32
.34
1.10
.41
.45
.42
1.28
.57
.53
.49
1.41
.63
.62
.54
1.61
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31
NO CASH DIVIDENDS
BEING PAID

Full
Fiscal
Year

604.0
695.9
770.3
845
935
Full
Fiscal
Year

1.81
2.11
2.56
3.00
3.40
Full
Year

9.85
.44
.23
-2.18
20.94
5.4
.35
--

10.07
.55
.30
-2.49
20.96
6.0
.31
--

11.17
.76
.44
-3.01
21.79
11.7
.64
--

12.12
.98
.64
-3.54
24.72
15.7
.90
--

14.76
1.39
.92
-4.53
25.24
15.7
.83
--

17.92
1.86
1.30
-5.93
25.93
16.3
.87
--

20.19
2.18
1.57
-7.70
27.06
14.1
.76
--

22.15
2.52
1.81
-9.58
27.27
12.1
.64
--

25.36
2.88
2.11
-11.73
27.44
8.1
.49
--

27.98
3.40
2.56
-14.29
27.53
9.8
.65
--

206.3
51.2%
6.4%
117
5.0
37.5%
2.4%
28.6
6.4
45.7
10.7%
11.0%
11.0%
--

211.0
54.2%
7.9%
137
6.5
36.0%
3.1%
37.8
15.9
52.3
10.6%
12.5%
12.5%
--

243.4
57.2%
10.4%
174
10.9
41.3%
4.5%
41.5
9.3
65.6
15.3%
16.7%
16.7%
--

299.7
60.0%
12.7%
214
16.6
42.5%
5.5%
72.2
28.6
87.5
15.0%
19.0%
19.0%
--

372.5
63.2%
14.1%
269
24.5
39.3%
6.6%
68.1
5.9
114.3
21.1%
21.4%
21.4%
--

464.6
64.7%
16.1%
324
35.3
41.3%
7.6%
96.2
4.8
153.8
22.8%
22.9%
22.9%
--

546.4
64.8%
16.3%
388
43.2
40.1%
7.9%
136.6
.4
208.2
20.9%
20.8%
20.8%
--

604.0
65.7%
16.8%
422
50.2
40.5%
8.3%
187.2
-261.2
19.2%
19.2%
19.2%
--

695.9
64.9%
16.7%
460
58.4
39.1%
8.4%
246.1
-321.8
18.1%
18.1%
18.1%
--

770.3
64.2%
18.1%
473
71.2
39.4%
9.2%
323.3
-393.3
18.1%
18.1%
18.1%
--

30.60
3.80
3.00
Nil
17.40
27.60

33.70
4.25
3.40
Nil
20.90
27.75

Bold figures are


Value Line
estimates

845
65.0%
19.0%
510
83.5
39.5%
9.9%
405
Nil
480
17.5%
17.5%
17.5%
Nil

935
65.0%
19.5%
540
95.5
40.0%
10.2%
500
Nil
580
16.5%
16.5%
16.5%
Nil

THIS
STOCK

VL ARITH.
INDEX

56.7
30.2
55.9

29.6
-8.6
24.0

VALUE LINE PUB., INC.

Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh AB
Divds Decld per sh
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield

Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof

13-15
41.95
5.20
4.25
Nil
33.20
28.00
12.0
.80
Nil
1175
65.0%
19.5%
630
120
40.0%
10.2%
785
Nil
930
13.0%
13.0%
13.0%
Nil

BUSINESS: Jos. A. Bank Clothiers, Inc. is a designer, retailer, and


direct marketer of mens tailored and casual clothing and accessories. The company sells substantially all of its products exclusively under the Jos. A. Bank label through its 473 retail stores located
in 42 states and the District of Columbia, as well as through a
nationwide catalog and Internet operations. Has about 4,318 em-

ployees. 09 depreciation rate, 8.5%. Off./dir. own 2.4% of common;


FMR LLC, 13.6%; Blackrock, 10.0%; Barclays Global Investors,
6.4%; Thompson, Siegel & Walmsley, 5.8%; The Vanguard Group,
5.3% (5/10 Proxy). Chrmn.: Robert N. Wildrick. Pres. & CEO: R.
Neal Black. Inc.: DE. Addr.: 500 Hanover Pike, Hampstead, MD
21074. Tel.: (410) 239-2700. Internet: www.josbank.com.

We look for Jos. A. Banks earnings to


advance about 17% in fiscal 2010 (year
ends January 29, 2011), largely thanks
to effective promotional activity, which
helped comparable-store sales increase
more than 10% during the first quarter.
However, it will be difficult for the company to maintain such strong bottom-line improvement over the rest of the year, due to
some cost inflation late in 2010 and into
2011, particularly for raw materials.
The new tuxedo rental business
should add to share-net growth next
year. This program is now up and running
in almost all of the companys stores
nationwide. However, tuxedos are unlikely
to be a large revenue generator in 2010, as
there is typically a four- to 12-month lag
between reservations for wedding rentals
and the actual event. This business should
be a key contributor to earnings gains in
2011, though, as we look for tuxedos to
generate about $0.20 a share in income.
The company launched its factory
store concept in the second quarter.
Bank opened three of its five planned factory stores in July as part of its test phase
for the concept. In addition, the company

announced that it has launched a new


Web site, dedicated to the products offered
under this new factory store initiative. We
believe that Bank could eventually open
an additional 5075 factory stores in the
U.S. These stores offer a significant longterm opportunity for Bank, as menswear
is rarely found in an outlet mall setting.
These shares hold our Highest (1)
rank for Timeliness. The companys
strong earnings growth in recent quarters
has helped its stock price rise sharply over
the past year or so, despite a small
pullback from its high over the past three
months. Indeed, the issue is currently
trading near the low end of our 3- to 5year Target Price Range. As a result,
JOSB offers limited appreciation potential
to 20132015. Further, the high level of
promotional activity creates some risk, as
the company may be forced to sacrifice
margins to maintain store traffic.
The board of directors approved a
50% stock dividend, effective July 30,
2010. All per-share information in this
report has been adjusted to reflect the
stock split.
Jerry W. Gray Jr.
August 6, 2010

(A) Fiscal year ends Saturday closest to Janu- (B) Diluted. Excludes gain/(loss) from non- (C) In millions, adjusted for stock splits.
ary 31st of the following year.
recurring charges: 99, ($0.20). Excludes
gain/(loss) from disc. operations: 98, ($0.01).
Next earnings report due early September.
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

Companys Financial Strength


Stocks Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability

B++
25
80
95

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

LIMITED BRANDS NYSE-LTD


TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

2
3
4

High:
Low:

Raised 10/23/09
New 7/27/90
Lowered 8/6/10

BETA 1.20 (1.00 = Market)

2013-15 PROJECTIONS

Annl Total
Price
Gain
Return
High
45 (+75%) 17%
Low
30 (+20%)
7%
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell

S
0
0
0

O
0
0
0

N
0
0
0

D
0
0
0

J
0
3
0

F
0
0
1

M
0
0
1

A
0
0
0

25.3
13.8

RECENT
PRICE
27.9
14.4

21.3
9.0

22.3
12.5

15.0 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 17.0) P/E RATIO 0.86 YLD 2.4%
25.43 P/ERATIO 13.7(Trailing:
18.5
10.9

27.9
17.3

25.5
18.8

32.6
21.6

30.0
16.5

22.2
6.9

20.1
6.0

28.8
18.3

Target Price Range


2013 2014 2015

LEGENDS
10.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
2-for-1 split 5/00
Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
Latest recession began 12/07

64
48
40
32
24
20
16
12

M
0
0
0

8
6
% TOT. RETURN 6/10

Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
118
152
171
to Buy
to Sell
173
148
164
Hlds(000) 240572 250808 241812

Percent
shares
traded

18
12
6

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
10.24 11.09 15.95 16.84 20.63 21.85 23.63 21.83 16.15 17.25 23.12 24.55 26.81 29.29
1.00
.84
1.17
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.65
1.53
1.51
1.67
2.39
2.17
2.49
3.09
.63
.44
.55
.62
.70
.97
.97
.87
.98
1.06
1.35
1.29
1.68
1.89
.18
.20
.20
.24
.26
.30
.30
.30
.30
.40
.48
.60
.60
.60
3.86
4.50
3.55
3.75
4.93
4.83
5.42
6.40
9.29 10.17
5.74
6.26
7.42
6.41
715.21 710.73 542.14 545.60 453.14 444.94 427.60 429.00 523.00 518.00 407.00 395.00 398.00 346.00
15.2
22.2
17.3
17.5
20.7
21.4
21.6
17.4
17.2
14.8
15.7
17.3
15.9
12.5
1.00
1.49
1.08
1.01
1.08
1.22
1.40
.89
.94
.84
.83
.92
.86
.66
1.9%
2.1%
2.1%
2.2%
1.8%
1.5%
1.4%
2.0%
1.8%
2.6%
2.3%
2.7%
2.3%
2.5%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10
Total Debt $2523.0 mill. Due in 5 Yrs $893.0 mill
LT Debt $2523.0 mill.

VALUE
LINE

LT Interest $215.0 mill.


(56% of Capl)

Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $478.0 mill.


No Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Pfd Stock None
Common Stock 325,191,169 shs.
as of 5/28/10
MARKET CAP: $8.3 billion (Large Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
1173
1804
Receivables
236
219
Inventory (Avg Cst) 1182
1037
Other
276
190
Current Assets
2867
3250
Accts Payable
494
488
Debt Due
-2
Other
761
832
Current Liab.
1255
1322

5/1/10
1188
199
1098
202
2687
485
-650
1135

10105 9363.0 8445.0 8934.0


36.7% 37.7% 39.9% 39.6%
11.4% 10.9% 13.6% 13.9%
5129
4614
4036
3911
433.8 378.0 512.0 584.0
43.6% 43.8% 41.2% 39.0%
4.3%
4.0%
6.1%
6.5%
1067.6 1363.0 2347.0 3041.0
400.0 250.0 547.0 648.0
2316.5 2744.0 4860.0 5266.0
17.0% 13.0%
9.7% 10.4%
18.7% 13.8% 10.5% 11.1%
13.2%
9.1%
7.4%
7.1%
29%
34%
29%
36%

9408.0
39.4%
14.5%
3779
638.0
36.7%
6.8%
1233.0
1646.0
2335.0
16.8%
27.3%
17.5%
36%

9699.0 10671 10134


39.0% 40.6% 38.4%
13.2% 14.0% 12.2%
3590
3798
2926
559.7 675.0 718.0
33.1% 38.5% 36.4%
5.8%
6.3%
7.1%
1209.0 1062.0 1545.0
1669.0 1665.0 2905.0
2471.0 2955.0 2219.0
14.7% 15.7% 15.5%
22.7% 22.8% 32.4%
12.9% 14.8% 22.1%
43%
35%
32%

THIS
STOCK

VL ARITH.
INDEX

83.9
-12.7
17.3

29.6
-8.6
24.0

VALUE LINE PUB., INC.

13-15

28.17 26.72 28.00 28.60


1.75
2.49
3.05
3.15
.65
1.37
1.85
2.00
.60
.60
.60
.60
5.84
6.76
6.55
7.95
321.00 323.00 325.00 325.00
23.7
10.2 Bold figures are
Value Line
1.43
.68
estimates
3.9%
4.3%

Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh AB
Divds Decld per sh C
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg D
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield

31.45
3.60
2.40
.68
11.45
315.00
16.0
1.05
1.8%

9043.0
37.0%
11.5%
3014
220.0
51.4%
2.4%
1612.0
2897.0
1874.0
6.5%
11.7%
1.0%
91%

Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof

9900
41.0%
17.0%
3150
750
39.0%
7.6%
2000
2000
3600
15.0%
21.0%
15.0%
29%

8632.0
39.2%
14.1%
2971
448.0
31.1%
5.2%
1928.0
2723.0
2183.0
11.6%
20.5%
11.7%
43%

9100
41.0%
16.0%
2950
610
38.5%
6.7%
1600
2500
2125
15.5%
28.5%
19.5%
32%

9300
41.0%
17.0%
2975
650
38.0%
7.0%
1950
2500
2580
15.0%
25.0%
17.5%
30%

BUSINESS: Limited Brands is one of the largest companies specializing in mens and womens apparel, lingerie, and personal care
products. It operates approx. 3,000 stores under the names Victorias Secret, Bath & Body Works, Pink, La Senza, C.O. Bigelow,
White Barn Candle Co., and Henri Bendel. Also sells lingerie, swimwear, apparel, and shoes via the Victorias Secret Catalogue. Acqd

Intimate Brands, 3/02. Divested 84% stake in Abercrombie & Fitch


in mid-1998; 75% stake in Express, 7/07; 75% in Limited, 8/07 and
25%, 6/10. Has abt 92,100 empls. Off. & dir. own 18.3% of common stock (4/10 Proxy). Chrmn./CEO: Leslie H. Wexner. Inc.: Delaware. Addr.: Three Limited Parkway, P.O. Box 16000, Columbus,
OH 43216. Tel.: 614-415-7000. Internet: www.limited.com.

Limited Brands had an impressive


start to fiscal 2010 (began January
ANNUAL RATES Past
Past Estd 07-09
31st). Share earnings in the initial period
of change (per sh)
10 Yrs.
5 Yrs.
to 13-15
blew past our estimate of $0.10 and the
Sales
3.5%
8.5%
2.0%
Cash Flow
5.5%
5.5%
6.5%
year-earlier tally of a penny, though the
Earnings
5.5%
3.0% 11.0%
result includes a $0.09 gain related to a
Dividends
8.5%
9.0%
2.0%
cash distribution from Express. Still, even
Book Value
3.5%
-5.5% 11.0%
without the gain, share net wouldve been
A
Full
Fiscal
QUARTERLY
SALES
($
mill.)
Fiscal strong. A 10% rise in same-store sales,
Year
Begins Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
along with good inventory management
2007 2311 2624 1923 3276 10134 and disciplined expense control, was large2008 1925 2284 1843 2991 9043
2009 1725 2067 1777 3063 8632 ly behind the stellar performance.
2010 1932 2200 1850 3118 9100 Both the Victorias Secret and Bath &
2010 1960 2250 1900 3190 9300 Body Works chains are showing resilience. With the economy recovering,
Full
Fiscal
EARNINGS PER SHARE A B
Fiscal comps have turned positive since late last
Year
Begins Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
year. Indeed, an improved merchandise as2007
.13
.67
.03
1.10
1.89
2008
.28
.30
.01
.05
.65 sortment (i.e., wider range of colors,
2009
.01
.23
.05
1.08
1.37 matching underwear sets) is helping to
2010
.34
.33
.08
1.10
1.85 boost customer traffic at the lingerie
2011
.30
.35
.10
1.25
2.00 chain. Likewise, an enhanced product mix,
featuring a relaunched Signature collecQUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID C
CalFull
endar Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year tion, and new offerings in the home fragrance and antibacterial lines, appears to
2006 .15
.15
.15
.15
.60 be resonating well with shoppers at BBW.
2007 .15
.15
.15
.15
.60
2008 .15
.15
.15
.15
.60 Margins stand to widen. Leaner inven2009 .15
.15
.15
.15
.60 tory levels, due to managements conservative planning, are essentially enabling
2010 .15
.15

LTD to be less promotional, versus last


year, and increase full-priced selling. That,
coupled with tight cost control and higher
sales, should benefit the operating margin.
Still, there are some challenges. If the
economic recovery slows or stalls, consumer spending could recede, which might
force LTD to turn more promotional. And
while sales prospects look generally good
for the coming quarters, the company faces
tougher comps toward holiday time. All
told, given the first-quarter showing, weve
raised our fiscal 2010 share-net estimate
by $0.30. (Note that, in June, LTD sold its
remaining stake in The Limited clothing
chain for $32 million. Weve included the
resulting gain in our second-quarter figure.) Our target for next year, which also
has been upped by $0.30, represents solid,
though more moderate, growth.
Limited stock is timely, reflecting good
price and earnings momentum of late. Appreciation potential to 2013-2015 is decent
here, based on the profit advances we envision longer term for this mature retailer,
supported by expansion, improving economic conditions, and expense control.
J. Susan Ferrara
August 6, 2010

(A) Fiscal year ends Saturday nearest to January 31 of following year. (B) Primary egs. thru
96, diluted thereafter. Based on GAAP. Excludes nonrecurring gains (loss): 95, $0.91;

96, $0.22; 97, ($0.23); 98, $3.46; 00, $0.01;


01, $0.32; 02, $0.03, 03, $0.31; 04, $0.08.
Excl. discd oper.: 02, $0.01. Qtly. egs. may
not sum due to roundg/diff. in sh. outstg. Next

egs. rpt. due mid-Aug. (C) Dividends paid in


mid-March, June, Sept., and Dec. Special divd
of $1.00/sh. paid 4/10. Divd reinvestment
plan available. (D) In mill., adj. for stock split.

2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

Companys Financial Strength


Stocks Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability

B
50
45
45

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

MENS WEARHOUSE NYSE-MW


TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

4
3
2

High:
Low:

Raised 4/2/10

23.3
13.0

22.7
11.5

RECENT
PRICE
22.0
11.3

19.1
6.4

19.6 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 16.0) P/E RATIO 0.93 YLD 2.0%
19.96 P/ERATIO 14.8(Trailing:
20.8
7.8

23.0
14.3

LEGENDS
10.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Raised 7/30/10
3-for-2 split 6/98
BETA 1.10 (1.00 = Market)
3-for-2 split 6/05
Options: Yes
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
Shaded area: prior recession
Annl Total Latest recession began 12/07

37.4
20.1

41.8
28.8

56.6
26.8

27.7
8.3

27.7
9.4

27.4
17.7

VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015

Raised 11/17/00

80
60
50
40
30
25
20
15

3-for-2

Price
Gain
Return
High
45 (+125%) 24%
Low
30 (+50%) 12%
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell

S
0
2
6

O
0
0
2

N
0
0
1

D
0
1
2

J
0
0
1

F
0
0
1

M
0
0
2

A
0
0
1

M
0
0
1

% TOT. RETURN 6/10

Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
86
to Buy
to Sell
74
Hlds(000) 53158

4Q2009
85
80
53470

1Q2010
69
86
56325

Percent
shares
traded

30
20
10

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
7.42
.45
.28
-1.99
42.72
25.6
1.68
--

8.67
.55
.36
-2.92
46.84
25.2
1.69
--

10.27
.72
.44
-3.38
47.07
26.5
1.66
--

12.71
.92
.60
-4.43
49.67
24.6
1.42
--

14.69
1.20
.78
-5.70
52.29
23.2
1.21
--

18.89
1.55
1.05
-6.51
62.83
16.3
.93
--

CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10


Total Debt $45.8 mill.
Due in 5 Yrs $45.8 mill.
LT Debt None
LT Interest None.
(Total interest coverage: Over 25.0x)
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $151.2 mill.
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Pfd Stock None
Common Stock 52,641,800 shs.
as of 6/4/10
MARKET CAP: $1.1 billion (Mid Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
104.5
186.0
Receivables
16.3
16.7
Inventory (FIFO)
440.1
431.5
Other
70.7
74.1
Current Assets
631.6
708.3
Accts Payable
108.8
83.1
Debt Due
--Other
111.4
140.9
Current Liab.
220.2
224.0
ANNUAL RATES Past
of change (per sh)
10 Yrs.
Sales
9.5%
Cash Flow
10.5%
Earnings
7.0%
Dividends
-Book Value
11.5%
Fiscal
Year
Begins

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

5/1/10
219.6
24.6
435.4
68.8
748.4
99.7
45.8
139.0
284.5

Past Estd 07-09


5 Yrs.
to 13-15
8.5%
2.0%
12.0%
4.0%
10.5%
7.5%
- - 14.0%
11.5%
4.5%

Full
QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.) A
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
496.1 569.4 512.1 535.0 2112.6
491.1 545.3 459.7 476.3 1972.4
464.2 526.2 462.0 457.2 1909.6
473.5 541.5 460
475
1950
480
565
465
470
1980
Full
EARNINGS PER SHARE A B
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
.75
1.00
.69
.29
2.73
.19
.63
.28
.03
1.13
.10
.75
.37
d.36
.86
.26
.78
.39 d.08
1.35
.28
.82
.41 d.01
1.50
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAIDC
Full
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year
.05
.05
.05
.05
.20
.05
.06
.06
.06
.23
.07
.07
.07
.07
.28
.07
.07
.07
.07
.28
.09
.09

(A) Fiscal year ends Saturday closest to January 31st of following calendar year.
(B) Primary earnings thru 1996; diluted earnings thereafter. Excl. nonrecurring gains &

21.05
1.88
1.33
-7.81
63.35
12.9
.84
--

20.70
1.39
.69
-8.29
61.51
22.7
1.16
--

21.83
1.46
.69
-8.97
59.32
19.3
1.05
--

25.72
1.81
.85
-9.11
54.15
17.7
1.01
--

28.46
2.29
1.29
-10.47
54.35
14.6
.77
--

32.50
3.30
2.04
.05
11.83
53.07
14.5
.77
.2%

34.91
3.89
2.71
.20
13.98
53.92
13.3
.72
.6%

41.04
4.42
2.73
.25
15.85
51.48
16.0
.85
.6%

37.99
2.88
1.13
.28
16.22
51.92
17.0
1.02
1.5%

36.43
2.51
.86
.28
17.22
52.41
22.8
1.52
1.4%

37.15
2.80
1.35
.36
18.30
52.50

37.70
3.00
1.50
.40
18.95
52.50

Bold figures are


Value Line
estimates

THIS
STOCK

VL ARITH.
INDEX

-2.9
-62.5
-44.0

29.6
-8.6
24.0

VALUE LINE PUB., INC.

10
7.5

13-15

Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh AB
Divds Decld per sh C
Book Value per sh D
Common Shs Outstg E
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield

43.80
4.15
2.40
.60
21.60
52.50
15.0
1.00
1.7%

Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof

2300
47.5%
13.0%
1320
125
36.0%
5.4%
600
40.0
1135
11.0%
11.0%
8.5%
25%

1333.5 1273.2 1295.0 1392.7 1546.7 1724.9 1882.1 2112.6


41.2% 38.7% 38.5% 40.4% 42.4% 44.0% 46.6% 49.7%
13.2%
9.1%
8.8%
9.4% 11.1% 13.2% 15.2% 14.6%
651
680
689
693
707
719
752
784
84.7
43.3
42.4
50.0
71.4 113.1 148.6 147.0
39.7% 39.0% 37.7% 37.3% 37.3% 35.5% 33.8% 36.0%
6.3%
3.4%
3.3%
3.6%
4.6%
6.6%
7.9%
7.0%
318.6 301.9 325.3 356.8 388.2 491.5 454.7 393.7
42.6
37.7
38.7 131.0 130.0 205.3
73.0
92.4
495.0 509.9 531.8 493.5 568.8 627.5 753.8 815.9
15.8%
8.2%
7.6%
8.3% 10.6% 13.9% 18.5% 16.5%
17.1%
8.5%
8.0% 10.1% 12.5% 18.0% 19.7% 18.0%
17.1%
8.5%
8.0% 10.1% 12.5% 18.0% 18.3% 16.5%
------7%
8%

1972.4 1909.6
47.7% 46.3%
9.2%
8.1%
1294
1259
58.8
45.5
33.7% 33.0%
3.0%
2.4%
411.4 484.3
62.9
43.5
842.1 902.3
6.7%
4.9%
7.0%
5.0%
5.3%
3.4%
25%
32%

BUSINESS: The Mens Wearhouse, Inc. is one of the largest offprice retailers of mens tailored business attire (both brand name
and private labels). Prices typically are deep,deep discount below
those in department stores. K&G Mens Center operates bigger
stores emphasizing lower-priced mens and ladies merchandise.
Operates 1,252 stores including 582 Mens Wearhouse, 117 Cana-

dian Moores Clothing for Men, 106 K&G, 447 Mens Wearhouse
and Tux (acquired 4/07). Has 15,900 employees. Seven institutions
own 44.2%. Off. & dir. 7.0% incl. CEO and Chairman. George Zimmer, 5.0% (5/10 proxy). President and C.O.O. Douglas Ewert. Inc.:
Texas. Address: 6380 Rogerdale Road, Houston, TX 77072. Telephone: 281-776-7000. Internet: www.menswearhouse.com.

We look for Mens Wearhouse to post


solid results in the all-important July
quarter. The July period is MWs most
profitable one, due to wedding and promrelated demand for tux rentals. The company had virtually all of its (highmargined) rentals reserved for these
events, and likely recorded a low doubledigit improvement in rental revenues.
Aided
by
an
effective
promotional
campaign, clothing sales were likely
decent as well, leading to a low single-digit
comp-store gain. On the downside, the
low-priced K&G chain probably experienced continued softness.
The company will offer tuxedos in
roughly 1,000 stores. That prospective
year-end number is after MW closes some
50 to 60 unprofitable TUX stores, while
opening about 10 Mens Wearhouse units
carrying formal wear. The company appears likely to recapture most of the lost
volume since the shuttered TUX locations
are within one mile of an MW outlet. Store
closings will reduce occupancy costs, and
improve profitability. Note that MW handles about one in every three tuxedo rentals
in North America.

Two key business indicators have


turned positive. In 2009, overall customer transaction count fell 6.5%. During
2010s initial period, it rose 5.3%. Transactions with long-standing customers had
been flat after two years of decline. However, business with new shoppers increased 9%, indicating MW is holding its
own during tough economic times.
The company has a new TV ad
campaign for its Mens Wearhouse
brand. MW made three different commercials, each with two versions. One focuses
on the companys brand, the other emphasizes its promotions. The promotional message runs during the busier times of the
year, while the branding spot runs the rest
of the time. One of the campaigns zeroes
in on younger brands, Kenneth Cole,
Joseph Abboud and Jones New York.
These shares are ranked to lag the
year-ahead broader market. With the
stock down 22% in the last three months,
the 3- to 5-year risk/reward becomes more
attractive, especially considering MWs
solid balance sheet and leading position in
off-price retailing and tuxedo rentals.
Jerome H. Kaplan
August 6, 2010

1950
47.5%
9.0%
1200
72.0
36.5%
3.7%
470
Nil
960
7.5%
7.5%
5.5%
27%

losses: 98, (2); 99, (17); 05, (5). Excludes June, Sept, and Dec. (D) Incl. intangibles. As of
extraordinary loss: 99, 5. Excl. discontinued 1/30/10, $59.4 million ($1.13 a share). (E) In
operations loss: 05, 11. Next egs. report due mill. adj. for stock splits.
late August. (C) Divds paid in late March,

2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

1980
47.5%
9.5%
1200
80.0
36.5%
4.0%
500
Nil
1020
8.0%
8.0%
5.5%
27%

Companys Financial Strength


Stocks Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability

A
35
70
55

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

CHILDRENS PLACE NDQ-PLCE


TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

1
3
3

High:
Low:

Raised 5/28/10

53.9
13.4

35.5
10.4

RECENT
PRICE
37.3
14.9

37.3
6.9

15.3 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 18.0) P/E RATIO 0.91 YLD
45.62 P/ERATIO 14.5(Trailing:
31.7
7.9

37.6
16.8

54.6
33.2

71.8
41.8

64.2
20.6

LEGENDS
8.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
Latest recession began 12/07

Raised 5/8/09
Lowered 7/30/10

BETA 1.25 (1.00 = Market)

2013-15 PROJECTIONS

43.4
14.9

37.7
17.1

Nil

50.1
31.4

VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015

128
96
80
64
48
40
32
24

Annl Total
Price
Gain
Return
High
85 (+85%) 17%
Low
55 (+20%)
5%
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell

S
0
0
0

O
0
0
0

N
0
0
1

D
0
0
2

J
0
0
0

F
0
0
2

M
0
1
4

A
0
0
0

M
0
1
3

16
12
% TOT. RETURN 6/10

Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
73
to Buy
to Sell
96
Hlds(000) 30163

4Q2009
79
80
30378

1Q2010
100
85
29243

Percent
shares
traded

45
30
15

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

The Childrens Place Retail Stores be- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
came a publicly traded company on Sep- 22.51 24.91 25.27 29.85 42.53 59.70 69.38 74.21 55.33 59.82 63.25 65.70
tember 19, 1997. Approximately 4 million 2.44 2.81 1.73 2.36 3.60 4.18 5.26 3.34
4.63
5.37
5.85
6.15
shares were issued at a price of $14.00 a 1.60 1.73
.38
.85
1.67
2.31
2.92
.60
2.19
2.65
3.15
3.40
share. Lead underwriters were Montgomery
----------Nil
Nil
Securities; Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette; 6.39 8.23 8.62 9.61 11.45 14.05 17.94 16.21 18.59 21.44 23.45 26.25
Smith Barney; and Legg Mason Wood 26.10 26.37 26.57 26.73 27.22 27.95 29.08 29.14 29.47 27.47 27.50 28.00
Walker Inc.
13.2
14.8
56.6
22.8
16.3
19.1
20.2
64.6
12.9
11.0 Bold figures are

CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10


Total Debt None
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $196.4 mill.
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Common Stock 27,731,075 shs.
as of 5/28/10
MARKET CAP: $1.3 billion (Mid Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
226.2
168.4
Receivables
19.6
16.9
Inventory (Avg Cost) 211.2
206.2
Other
62.6
65.4
Current Assets
519.6
456.9
Accts Payable
73.3
55.5
Debt Due
30.0
-Other
103.7
90.0
Current Liab.
207.0
145.5
ANNUAL RATES Past
of change (per sh) 10 Yrs.
Sales
18.0%
Cash Flow
14.0%
Earnings
8.5%
Dividends
-Book Value
18.5%
Fiscal
Year
Begins

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Ends

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

5/1/10
223.5
16.3
182.4
76.1
498.3
45.6
-81.1
126.7

Past Estd 07-09


5 Yrs.
to 13-15
14.0%
NMF
11.5%
NMF
13.5%
NMF
-Nil
13.5%
NMF

QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.)A


Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per
478.9 424.3 588.5 670.9
400.2 338.0 450.6 441.5
401.9 315.7 463.2 462.8
422.1 335
490
492.9
445
360
515
520
EARNINGS PER SHARE A B D
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per
.49
d.97
.42
.66
.66
d.03
.84
.72
.74
d.42
1.38
1.03
1.00 d.34
1.44
1.05
1.00 d.35
1.55
1.20
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31

Full
Fiscal
Year

2162.6
1630.3
1643.6
1740
1840
Full
Fiscal
Year

NO CASH DIVIDENDS
BEING PAID

(A) Fiscal year ends on the Saturday closest to


January 31st of following calendar year. Excludes nonrecurring gains (losses): 02, 5; 04,
10; 06, (40); 07, ($2.65); 08, 31; 09, 44.

.60
2.19
2.65 D
3.15
3.40
Full
Year

.86
--

.76
--

3.09
--

587.4
42.3%
15.7%
400
42.7
39.1%
7.3%
41.0
-166.7
25.6%
25.6%
25.6%
--

657.0
42.6%
15.8%
520
46.6
38.5%
7.1%
77.3
-217.0
21.5%
21.5%
21.5%
--

671.4
37.0%
8.0%
656
10.3
44.4%
1.5%
79.3
-229.0
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
--

1.30
--

.86
--

1.02
--

1.09
--

3.43
--

797.9 1157.5 1668.7 2017.7 2162.6


39.1% 39.5% 39.6% 41.1% 36.9%
9.6% 11.0%
9.3% 10.0%
4.6%
691
1058
1118
1217
1239
23.0
46.1
63.9
87.4
17.6
37.5% 38.5% 38.1% 29.1% 12.5%
2.9%
4.0%
3.8%
4.3%
.8%
114.2 177.2 233.9 283.7 200.4
-----257.0 311.7 392.9 521.8 472.2
8.9% 14.8% 16.3% 16.7%
3.7%
8.9% 14.8% 16.3% 16.7%
3.7%
8.9% 14.8% 16.3% 16.7%
3.7%
------

.78
--

Value Line
estimates

.73
--

1630.3 1643.6
41.2% 40.1%
11.9% 12.5%
917
947
64.9
76.0
44.8% 41.1%
4.0%
4.6%
312.6 311.4
55.0
55.0
547.9 589.0
11.0% 13.0%
11.8% 12.9%
11.8% 12.9%
---

1740
40.5%
12.8%
1000
88.0
41.0%
5.0%
315
Nil
645
13.5%
13.5%
13.5%
Nil

1840
41.2%
13.0%
1050
95.0
41.0%
5.2%
370
Nil
725
13.0%
13.0%
13.0%
Nil

THIS
STOCK

VL ARITH.
INDEX

66.6
-14.8
-5.7

29.6
-8.6
24.0

VALUE LINE PUB., INC.

Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh B
Divds Decld per sh
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield

Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof

13-15
79.30
7.30
4.60
Nil
35.90
28.00
15.0
1.00
Nil
2200
42.0%
13.0%
1250
130
40.0%
5.8%
570
Nil
1000
13.0%
13.0%
13.0%
Nil

BUSINESS: The Childrens Place Retail Stores, Inc. is a specialty


retailer of apparel and accessories for children (newborn through 12
years old). The companys objective is to provide high-quality fashionable products at value prices. At 1/10, the company operated
947 stores in the United States and Canada. Stores average approx. 4,500 sq. ft., except outlets (6,000 sq. ft.). Exited Disney

Stores North America business in 2008. Has about 21,400 empls.


Officers & directors own 1.4% of stock; BlackRock, 9.3%; Lord, Abbett & Co., 8.5% (5/10 Proxy). President: Neal Goldberg. Interim
Chairman.: Sally F. Kasaks. Interim CEO: Chuck Crovitz. Incorporated.: DE. Address: 500 Plaza Drive, Secaucus, NJ 07094.
Tel.: 201-558-2400. Internet: www.childrensplace.com.

The Childrens Place is on track for


another year of double-digit bottomline growth. The company reported a
35% increase in first-quarter share net, as
margin gains bolstered profitability. Sales
advanced 5%, with same-store sales 0.5%
lower, while the gross margin improved
120 basis points. The company was once
again able to keep SG&A spending in
check, thereby providing additional leverage. Share net of $1.00 exceeded our $0.90
estimate, due to stronger-than-anticipated
gross margin improvement. We look for
similar top-line results for the rest of the
year, along with continued improvement
in both the gross and operating margins,
to result in double-digit earnings growth.
We have raised our fiscal 2010 (ends
January 29, 2011) share-net estimate
by $0.10, to $3.15, to reflect the strong
first-quarter result. Our revision puts us
at the high end of managements updated
guidance range of $3.05-$3.15 (from $2.90$3.10). We anticipate some moderation in
margin gains in the second half of the
year, given the tougher comparisons. Yet,
we still look for bottom-line improvement
in the final two quarters.

Store expansion should continue to


accelerate. PLCE remains on track for 65
store openings this year (about 50 net of
closures), nearly twice as many as last
year. The company opened 16 stores in the
first quarter, including 11 value centers,
reflecting its focus on increasing penetration in smaller markets, particularly
value-oriented strip malls. PLCE should
continue to benefit from lower store
buildout costs, with the newer Tech 2 store
format (35%-40% less than previous
model).
The E-Commerce business remains a
strong point, with attractive longterm prospects. Online sales advanced
22% in the first quarter, on top of a 42%
increase last year. The segment expanded
to 8% of overall sales, and has the potential to reach the mid-teen level over time.
These timely shares are more suited
to risk-tolerant investors. Relatively
high volatility, within a pretty defined
range, should continue to provide opportunities for more-aggressive investors.
However, long-term appreciation potential
is below average.
Joel Schwed
August 6, 2010

(B) Diluted earnings. Next earnings report due total due to change in shares outstanding.
late August.
(E) Discontinued Disney Stores.
(C) In millions.
(D) Quarterly earnings do not sum to full-year

2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

Companys Financial Strength


Stocks Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability

B
30
65
40

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

ROSS STORES, INC. NDQ-ROST


TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

2
2
3

High:
Low:

Lowered 6/4/10

13.1
8.5

12.2
6.0

LEGENDS
8.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Lowered 8/6/10
2-for-1 split 3/97
BETA .80 (1.00 = Market)
2-for-1 split 9/99
2-for-1 split 12/03
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
Options: Yes
Annl Total Shaded area: prior recession
Price
Gain
Return Latest recession began 12/07

S
0
2
2

O
0
0
1

N
0
0
0

17.1
8.3

23.6
15.9

13.6 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 15.0) P/E RATIO 0.80 YLD 1.3%
54.13 P/ERATIO 12.7(Trailing:
28.1
16.3

32.9
21.0

31.4
22.3

31.8
22.1

35.2
24.4

41.6
21.2

50.5
28.1

58.9
42.3

D
0
0
0

J
0
1
1

F
0
2
2

VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015

Raised 5/8/09

High
80 (+50%)
Low
60 (+10%)
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell

RECENT
PRICE

120
100
80
64
48

2-for-1

32
24
20
16
12

11%
4%
M
0
1
2

A
0
3
5

M
0
3
2

% TOT. RETURN 6/10

Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
170
216
174
to Buy
to Sell
201
191
235
Hlds(000) 122879 123219 124211

Percent
shares
traded

45
30
15

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

THIS
STOCK

VL ARITH.
INDEX

39.6
79.1
94.2

29.6
-8.6
24.0

VALUE LINE PUB., INC.

13-15

50.93 58.44 66.10 73.00


3.51
4.90
5.75
6.25
2.33
3.54
4.25
4.60
.40
.49
.68
.80
7.82
9.41 11.20 13.05
127.35 122.93 118.00 113.00
14.1
11.6 Bold figures are
Value Line
.85
.77
estimates
1.2%
1.2%

Sales per sh A B
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh C
Divds Decld per sh D
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg E
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield

101.00
8.75
6.50
1.00
21.75
100.00
11.0
.75
1.4%

2709.0 2986.6 3531.3 3920.6 4240.0 4944.2 5570.2 5975.2


30.9% 30.7% 25.6% 25.6% 22.6% 22.5% 24.4% 24.7%
11.0% 10.3% 11.2% 11.5%
9.2%
8.8%
8.9%
9.1%
409
452
507
568
649
734
797
890
151.8 155.0 201.2 228.1 179.5 199.6 241.6 261.1
39.1% 39.1% 39.1% 39.1% 39.1% 39.2% 39.3% 38.6%
5.6%
5.2%
5.7%
5.8%
4.2%
4.0%
4.3%
4.4%
197.0 225.4 295.7 408.7 411.1 349.9 431.7 387.4
30.0
-25.0
50.0
50.0
- - 150.0 150.0
467.5 544.5 643.2 755.4 765.6 836.2 909.8 970.6
30.8% 28.7% 30.1% 28.3% 22.0% 23.9% 22.9% 23.3%
32.5% 28.5% 31.3% 30.2% 23.5% 23.9% 26.6% 26.9%
29.8% 26.0% 29.0% 27.9% 20.2% 20.2% 22.9% 22.7%
8%
9%
7%
8%
14%
15%
14%
16%

6486.1 7184.2
25.8% 28.1%
9.8% 12.3%
956
1005
305.4 442.8
38.3% 38.4%
4.7%
6.2%
358.4 554.9
150.0 150.0
996.4 1157.3
27.0% 34.2%
30.7% 38.3%
25.7% 33.5%
16%
12%

Sales ($mill) A B
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof

10100
28.0%
13.0%
1285
675
38.5%
6.7%
1300
150
2175
29.0%
31.0%
26.5%
15%

BUSINESS: Ross Stores, Inc. operates a chain of 953 off-price retail stores located in 27 states and Guam. Stores offer primarily
first-quality, in-season, name brand and designer apparel,
accessories, footwear, and home fashions for the entire family at
everyday savings of 20%-60% below department- and specialtystore prices. Also has 52 dds DISCOUNTS stores in four states.

Has 45,600 full-time and part-time employees. Off./dir. own 3.5% of


common stock; FMR LLC, 12.7%; BlackRock, 9.8%; Vanguard
Group, 5.6% (4/10 proxy). Chairman: Norman A. Ferber. Vice
Chairman and CEO: Michael Balmuth. Inc.: Delaware. Address:
4440 Rosewood Dr., Bldg. 4, Pleasanton, CA 94588-3050. Telephone: 925-965-4400. Internet: www.rossstores.com.

Ross Stores should achieve strong


earnings growth this year, largely
ANNUAL RATES Past
Past Estd 07-09
thanks to its disciplined inventory manof change (per sh)
10 Yrs.
5 Yrs.
to 13-15
agement. The company has focused on
Sales
15.5% 14.5% 12.0%
Cash Flow
15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
maintaining lean inventory levels in its
Earnings
14.0% 14.5% 16.5%
stores to help maximize margins and
Dividends
21.5% 24.0% 16.5%
reduce the need for markdowns. This straBook Value
13.5% 11.0% 18.0%
tegy has the added benefit of enabling the
AB
Full
Fiscal
QUARTERLY
SALES
($
mill.)
Fiscal company to react rapidly to changing
Year
Begins Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
styles and surpluses in the supply chain
2007 1411 1445 1468 1652
5975.2 that allow it to add quality merchandise at
2008 1556 1640 1555 1734
6486.1
2009 1692 1768 1744 1980
7184.2 a discount. Average in-store inventories
fell about 8% during the April quarter,
2010 1935 1925 1855 2085
7800
and likely fell further in the July period,
2011 2025 2025 1975 2225
8250
due to robust sales growth.
AC
Full
Fiscal
EARNINGS
PER
SHARE
Fiscal Ross value proposition is resonating
Year
Begins Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
with consumers. Cash-strapped custom2007
.48
.37
.36
.70
1.90
2008
.60
.54
.44
.76
2.33 ers appear to appreciate its discounted
2009
.72
.82
.84
1.16
3.54 merchandise and quickly-turning inven2010
1.16
1.02
.87
1.20
4.25 tory. The combination of fresh styles and
2011
1.26
1.10
.93
1.31
4.60 off-price merchandise ought to boost the
companys sales by 8%9% in fiscal 2010
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID D
CalFull
endar Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year (year ends January 29, 2011).
The company faces some challenges
2006 .12
.06
-.06
.24
2007 .135 - .075
.075
.29 during the second half of the year,
2008 .17
-.095
.095
.36 though. Consumer confidence in the econ2009 .205
.11
.11
.11
.54 omy eroded in July, due to a stagnant job
market. This could hurt retail sales during
2010 .16
.16

the important back-to-school and holiday


seasons unless there is some improvement
in the employment market in the coming
months. Further, Ross is tasked, over the
second half, with beating last years record
earnings performance, which will make for
difficult comparisons. Based on these factors, we expect share-net growth to be
rather modest for the rest of this year.
Cost inflation may hurt Ross performance in fiscal 2011. A stronger
economy is likely to cause some consumers
to return to full-price retailers. This trend
ought to reduce the supply of discounted
merchandise in the pipeline, increasing
Ross acquisition costs. Expansion into
new markets should also dampen profitability somewhat.
These shares are ranked to outpace
the market in the year ahead. Weakness in the employment market should
help Ross outperform its retail peers in the
months ahead. However, the stock has
generally trended upward over the past
couple of years, and is trading near the
low end of our 3- to 5-year Target Price
Range, limiting its appreciation potential.
Jerry W. Gray Jr.
August 6, 2010

6.46
7.25
8.56 10.38 11.80 13.90 16.82 18.91 22.79 25.93 28.90 34.31 39.97 44.56
.28
.36
.56
.77
.90
1.09
1.22
1.30
1.73
2.02
1.87
2.15
2.51
2.85
.16
.22
.39
.59
.70
.85
.91
.96
1.26
1.47
1.19
1.36
1.70
1.90
.03
.03
.04
.05
.06
.07
.08
.09
.10
.13
.18
.22
.26
.32
1.30
1.48
1.67
1.99
2.30
2.67
2.90
3.45
4.15
5.00
5.22
5.80
6.53
7.24
195.46 196.81 197.33 191.67 185.00 177.55 161.05 157.92 154.98 151.21 146.72 144.11 139.36 134.10
11.6
8.3
11.8
13.5
14.0
12.4
9.5
13.8
15.8
15.4
22.5
20.1
16.6
15.5
.76
.56
.74
.78
.73
.71
.62
.71
.86
.88
1.19
1.07
.90
.82
1.5%
1.7%
.8%
.6%
.6%
.6%
.9%
.7%
.5%
.6%
.7%
.8%
.9%
1.1%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10
Total Debt $150.0 mill. Due in 5 Yrs. None
LT Debt $150.0 mill.
LT Int. $10.0 mill.
(11% capl)
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $340.6 mill.
No Defined Benefits Pension Plan
Pfd Stock None
Common Stock 122,094,664 shs.
as of 5/20/10
MARKET CAP: $6.6 billion (Large Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
322.2
770.1
Receivables
41.2
44.2
Inventory (Retail)
881.1
872.5
Other
69.2
58.6
Current Assets
1313.7 1745.4
Accts Payable
536.7
658.3
Debt Due
--Other
418.6
532.2
Current Liab.
955.3 1190.5

5/1/10
825.6
54.3
908.1
71.7
1859.7
748.8
-480.7
1229.5

(A) Fiscal year ends on Saturday closest to


(C) Diluted earnings. Next earnings report due
Jan. 31 of following calendar year.
mid-August. Excl. nonrecurring gain (losses):
(B) Excl. sales of leased departments. May not 94, 3; 99, (3); 04, (6).
sum to total due to rounding.

7800
28.0%
12.8%
1055
506
38.5%
6.5%
680
150
1320
34.5%
38.5%
32.0%
16%

(D) Dividends typically paid in early Jan., late


March, early July, and early Oct. Two dividends
are declared in fiscal 4Q, none in fiscal 1Q.
(E) In millions, adj. for stock splits.

2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

8250
27.8%
12.6%
1105
525
38.5%
6.4%
790
150
1475
32.5%
35.5%
29.5%
17%

Companys Financial Strength


Stocks Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability

A
80
60
90

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

URBAN OUTFITTERS NDQ-URBN


TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL

2
3
4

High:
Low:

Lowered 5/28/10

3.9
1.5

3.4
0.8

RECENT
PRICE
3.1
1.0

4.7
2.2

23.4 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 22.0) P/E RATIO 1.26 YLD
32.97 P/ERATIO 20.0(Trailing:
10.3
2.1

24.2
9.2

LEGENDS
16.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Lowered 3/12/10
2-for-1 split 9/03
BETA 1.15 (1.00 = Market)
2-for-1 split 7/04
2-for-1 split 9/05
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
Options: Yes
Annl Total Shaded area: prior recession
Price
Gain
Return Latest recession began 12/07

to Buy
Options
to Sell

O
0
2
2

N
0
2
3

29.9
13.6

29.4
19.2

38.4
12.3

35.8
13.6

40.8
30.1

D
0
0
0

J
0
1
1

F
0
0
0

A
0
0
1

80
60
50
40
30
25
20
15

2-for-1

21%
8%
M
0
3
3

2-for-1
2-for-1

M
0
1
0

% TOT. RETURN 6/10

Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
148
156
194
to Buy
to Sell
143
152
153
Hlds(000) 131165 131578 134433

Percent
shares
traded

45
30
15

1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
.81
.97
1.12
1.22
1.48
1.99
2.14
2.51
2.73
3.44
5.08
6.63
7.42
9.08
.10
.11
.12
.13
.15
.20
.16
.22
.29
.44
.78
1.03
1.04
1.39
.08
.09
.09
.10
.11
.13
.08
.11
.18
.30
.57
.77
.69
.94
--------------.34
.44
.54
.64
.75
.87
.94
1.05
1.45
1.82
2.47
3.40
4.09
5.14
135.57 136.64 140.23 141.60 141.12 138.87 138.03 138.82 155.05 159.55 162.89 164.83 164.99 166.10
20.8
16.1
23.3
19.5
18.3
20.0
16.6
17.2
18.6
19.3
27.6
34.9
30.1
26.1
1.36
1.08
1.46
1.12
.95
1.14
1.08
.88
1.02
1.10
1.46
1.86
1.63
1.39
--------------CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 4/30/10
Total Debt None
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $139.6 mill.
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Preferred Stock None
Common Stock 169,152,038 shares
MARKET CAP: $5.6 billion (Large Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
366.0
501.5
Receivables
36.4
38.4
Inventory (FIFO)
169.7
186.1
Other
52.3
80.2
Current Assets
624.4
806.2
Accts Payable
63.0
78.0
Debt Due
--Other
78.2
110.5
Current Liab.
141.2
188.5
ANNUAL RATES Past
of change (per sh)
10 Yrs.
Sales
21.0%
Cash Flow
26.0%
Earnings
26.0%
Dividends
-Book Value
24.0%
Fiscal
Year
Begins

VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015

New 11/19/99

High
70 (+110%)
Low
45 (+35%)
Insider Decisions
S
0
2
3

33.8
18.9

Nil

4/30/10
583.3
35.4
222.0
79.8
920.5
100.4
-96.7
197.1

Past Estd 07-09


5 Yrs.
to 13-15
23.0% 13.0%
26.5% 14.0%
26.5% 16.0%
-Nil
27.0% 21.0%

QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.) A


Apr.30 Jul.31 Oct.31 Jan.31
2007 314.5 348.5 379.3 465.4
2008 394.2 454.3 478.0 508.1
2009 384.8 458.6 505.9 588.5
2010 480.0 545
590
685
2011 545
620
675
785
Fiscal
EARNINGS PER SHARE AB
Year
Begins Apr.30 Jul.31 Oct.31 Jan.31
2007
.17
.19
.27
.32
2008
.25
.33
.35
.24
2009
.18
.29
.36
.45
2010
.31
.37
.44
.53
2011
.36
.43
.51
.60
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID
Calendar Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31
2006
2007
NO CASH DIVIDENDS
2008
BEING PAID
2009
2010

Full
Fiscal
Year

1507.7
1834.6
1937.8
2300
2625
Full
Fiscal
Year

.94
1.17
1.28
1.65
1.90
Full
Year

295.3
36.3%
10.1%
68
10.5
41.0%
3.6%
31.7
-129.6
8.1%
8.1%
8.1%
--

349.0
37.0%
11.7%
80
15.0
40.5%
4.3%
41.4
-145.9
10.3%
10.3%
10.3%
--

422.8
40.0%
15.0%
93
27.4
40.5%
6.5%
101.5
-224.4
12.2%
12.2%
12.2%
--

548.4
43.0%
18.8%
114
48.4
40.5%
8.8%
118.0
-290.1
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
--

827.8 1092.1 1224.7 1507.7


45.7% 44.7% 41.4% 42.9%
22.7% 22.6% 17.9% 19.6%
142
175
207
245
95.1 130.8 116.2 160.2
39.8% 38.4% 31.7% 31.6%
11.5% 12.0%
9.5% 10.6%
189.6 251.7 231.1 266.2
----402.2 560.9 675.3 853.4
23.6% 23.3% 17.2% 18.8%
23.6% 23.3% 17.2% 18.8%
23.6% 23.3% 17.2% 18.8%
-----

THIS
STOCK

VL ARITH.
INDEX

64.6
43.1
21.3

29.6
-8.6
24.0

VALUE LINE PUB., INC.

10.94 11.50 13.55 15.40


1.68
1.85
2.25
2.55
1.17
1.28
1.65
1.90
--Nil
Nil
6.28
7.69
9.55 11.65
167.71 168.56 169.50 170.50
23.5
19.6 Bold figures are
Value Line
1.41
1.31
estimates
---

Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh B
Divds Decld per sh
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield

1834.6 1937.8
43.4% 45.3%
20.8% 22.3%
294
327
199.4 219.9
35.6% 36.2%
10.9% 11.3%
483.2 617.6
--1053.8 1296.8
18.9% 17.0%
18.9% 17.0%
18.9% 17.0%
---

Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof

2300
45.5%
22.5%
370
285
36.0%
12.4%
680
Nil
1615
17.5%
17.5%
17.5%
Nil

2625
45.8%
22.7%
415
330
36.0%
12.6%
755
Nil
1985
16.5%
16.5%
16.5%
Nil

10
7.5

13-15
21.25
3.50
2.70
Nil
19.75
174.00
21.0
1.40
Nil
3700
46.5%
23.0%
555
480
36.5%
13.0%
1060
Nil
3440
14.0%
14.0%
14.0%
Nil

BUSINESS: Urban Outfitters, Inc. is a retail company that operates


under the Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie, Free People, and Terrain
brands, and also operates wholesale businesses under the
Leifsdottir and Free People brands. It offers products and markets
its brands directly to consumers through websites and catalogs, as
well. As of 4/30/10, it operated 157 Urban Outfitters stores, 142

Anthropolgie stores, 35 Free People stores, and one Terrain center.


Employs about 14,000. Officers & directors own 29.7% of stock (including Richard A. Hayne, 19.0%); BlackRock, 6.2%; FMR, 5.4%
(4/10 proxy). CEO: Glen T. Senk. Chairman: Richard A. Hayne. Incorporated: PA. Address: 5000 South Broad Street, Philadelphia,
PA 19112. Telephone: 215-454-5500. Internet: www.urbn.com.

Urban Outfitters started fiscal 2010 in


record-breaking fashion. In the April
period, the hipster retailer earned $0.31 a
share on revenues of $480 million. Both
figures represented all-time highs for the
fiscal first quarter. Comparable retail segment sales, which include the direct-toconsumer channel, increased 16% in the
interim; same-store sales rose 11%.
Despite the strong showing, URBN
shares have come down in price more
than 15% since our May review. We
surmise this has more to do with various
economic indicators that have taken a turn
for the worse over the past three months
than with the companys recent performance. Indeed, it seems as though Wall
Street is concerned that the nascent economic recovery has hit a speed bump,
which could stifle domestic consumer
spending (especially among the wealthy
and upper-middle class). If the retailers
core customers tighten their purse strings,
the near-term performances of the trendy
Urban
Outfitters
and
Anthropologie
brands would likely suffer.
Our outlook remains bright. We
remain confident that the company will

continue posting solid results in the coming six to 12 months. There were some
minor hiccups during the recent economic
downturn, but Urban easily outperformed
most of its retail counterparts thanks to
strong customer loyalty and solid management. We think this trend will continue in
the near future, and look for the company
to report near-30% share-earnings growth
in fiscal 2010.
Urban is slowly expanding in Europe.
The company plans to open 45 stores this
year. Five or six of those will probably be
opened across the pond (where roughly 20
locations already exist). Management has
been very cautious, given the competitive
nature of the crowded European marketplace. Moreover, the company is tailoring
its goods to suit local tastes, which is increasing overhead and decreasing profitability. Nonetheless, we think the venture
will be a nice boon to earnings over the
long haul.
This issue is timely, thanks to the positive quarterly earnings comparisons
posted of late. Long-term capital appreciation potential is above average, too.
Andre J. Costanza
August 6, 2010

(A) Fiscal years end January 31st of following (B) Primary earnings thru 96, diluted there- (C) In millions, adjusted for stock splits.
calendar year.
after. Excludes nonrecurring loss: 04, 3.
Quarterly figures may not sum due to rounding.
Next earnings report due mid-August.
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

Companys Financial Strength


Stocks Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability

A
45
95
75

To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

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