Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
August 6, 2010
The outlook for The Retail (Special Lines) Industry remains mixed. With summer in full swing
and the back-to-school season under way, many
retailers are still struggling to generate sales in a
soft consumer spending environment. As we transitioned from spring to summer, comparable store
sales (which measure sales performance at stores
opened for at least a year) fluctuated from month
to month. A lucky few saw improvement, with
sales declines easing or, in some cases, comps
trending into positive territory. The Industry has
managed to remain in the top quartile of all sectors tracked by our Timeliness Ranking System,
with several names that stand out for year-ahead
price performance. Still, there may be some turbulence ahead, especially since shoppers are likely
to continue spending judiciously amid a slow economic recovery. Longer term, however, investors
should find some worthwhile buying opportunities here, based on good upside potential.
Bleak Economic Data
No doubt, against a difficult macroeconomic backdrop,
many consumers have continued to limit discretionary
purchases. While some parts of the economic picture
suggest the recovery is well in progress, other areas
seem to indicate otherwise. High unemployment, a
shaky housing market, and tight credit are among the
major factors that continue to weigh on consumers
minds (and pockets) these days. A look at consumer
confidence (a key metric that gauges the publics sentiment on the economy and its direction) tells a similar
story. Indeed, after rising steadily for a couple of months,
hitting 62.7 in May, the Consumer Confidence Index fell
to a revised 54.3 in June, and receded further in July, to
50.4 amid increasing concerns over the state of the
economy. Heightened consumer pessimism regarding
the short-term outlook seems to mostly reflect worries
over persistent job-market weakness. (For comparative
purposes, we note that a reading of 90 or above suggests
the economy is stable; anything exceeding 100 denotes
strong growth.)
Consumer confidence is closely observed because it is
correlated to consumer spending, which accounts for
about 70% of GDP. The latest reading was clearly
disappointing, and it suggests that retailers will probably face a tough back-to-school season. Until the job
market improves and business conditions get better,
2165
INDUSTRY TIMELINESS:
19 (of 98)
Sales ($mill)
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield
13-15
225000
41.0%
12.0%
72000
10500
39.0%
4.7%
42000
15500
70000
13.0%
15.0%
12.0%
20%
18.0
1.20
1.0%
40
20
20 04
2 005
2 006
20 07
20 08
20 09
2 010
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
5
3
4
High:
Low:
Lowered 8/6/10
13.0
6.5
RECENT
PRICE
10.4
2.6
14.3
5.6
10.1
3.3
14.9 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 15.0) P/E RATIO 0.80 YLD 3.5%
12.65 P/ERATIO 12.7(Trailing:
7.8
4.4
15.9
5.3
LEGENDS
13.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Lowered 7/30/10
3-for-2 split 1/98
BETA 1.05 (1.00 = Market)
3-for-2 split 5/98
2-for-1 split 5/99
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
3-for-2 split 2/01
Annl Total 2-for-1 split 3/05
Price
Gain
Return 3-for-2 split 12/06
Options: Yes
High
35 (+175%) 30%
Shaded area: prior recession
Low
20 (+60%) 14%
Latest recession began 12/07
22.7
13.0
33.0
14.8
34.8
20.2
23.8
7.0
19.9
8.3
19.6
11.4
3-for-2
Raised 8/20/99
VALUE
LINE
64
48
40
32
24
20
16
12
2-for-1
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell
S
0
0
2
O
0
3
2
N
0
0
0
D
1
0
0
J
0
0
0
F
1
0
0
M
1
2
1
A
0
0
0
M
0
0
0
8
6
% TOT. RETURN 6/10
Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
131
152
160
to Buy
to Sell
175
151
138
Hlds(000) 163650 165851 156707
Percent
shares
traded
75
50
25
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
5/1/10
544.3
39.6
326.4
135.7
1046.0
143.5
17.5
163.1
324.1
Full
QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.) A
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
612.4 703.2 744.4 995.4 3055.4
640.3 688.8 754.1 905.7 2988.9
612.0 657.6 748.9 972.0 2990.5
648.5 660
755
981.5 3045
675
700
800 1000
3175
Full
EARNINGS PER SHARE AB
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
.35
.37
.45
.66
1.82
.21
.29
.30
.19
.99
.08
.14
.21
.33
.76
.17
.13
.28
.42
1.00
.19
.23
.33
.50
1.25
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID E
Full
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year
.05
.075
.075
.075
.28
.075
.10
.10
.10
.38
.10
.10
.10
.10
.40
.10
.10
.10
.10
.40
.10
.11
(A) Fiscal year ends Saturday closest to January 31st of the following calender year.
(B) Diluted earnings. Excl. nonrecurring
gain/(loss): 03, ($0.11); 04, $0.08; 05, $0.03;
VL ARITH.
INDEX
-14.3
-50.4
-36.2
29.6
-8.6
24.0
13-15
Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh AB
Divds Decld per sh E
Book Value per sh D
Common Shs Outstg C
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield
18.25
2.60
2.00
.52
9.50
200.00
14.0
.95
1.9%
2988.9 2990.5
39.3% 38.7%
14.5% 13.4%
1098
1103
205.0 158.6
31.0% 36.7%
6.9%
5.3%
523.6 758.0
--1409.0 1578.5
14.5% 10.0%
14.5% 10.0%
8.7%
4.8%
40%
52%
Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
3650
43.0%
21.0%
1350
400
38.0%
11.0%
600
Nil
1900
21.0%
21.0%
15.5%
26%
that
the
upside
outweighs
the
downside. Inventory levels are likely to
be down by the third quarter, which
should help firm up margins in the back
half of the year. Cost-cutting initiatives
may also aid profitability. Meantime, the
company is buying back stock, which
ought to support per-share earnings. All
told, we think that the back half of the
year will be stronger than the first, resulting in an earnings rebound in excess of
30% this fiscal year.
Indeed, we think these shares are a
good selection for value investors
with long time horizons. The stocks
price has fallen sharply since our April
review, leaving it with an attractive P/E
ratio and above-average dividend yield
(which was also boosted by a recent 10%
increase in the quarterly payout). Additionally, the company generates an enviable amount of free cash flow, and the balance sheet is strong, with little debt and
nearly $545 million in cash.
Momentum investors, on the other
hand, may want to take a wait-and-see
approach with these untimely shares.
Matthew E. Spencer
August 6, 2010
.98
1.46
1.63
1.99
2.83
3.96
5.14
6.36
6.86
7.12
8.39 10.41 12.63 14.94
.08
.06
.06
.13
.30
.49
.55
.68
.65
.61
1.30
1.66
2.15
2.49
.04
.03
.03
.09
.25
.41
.43
.48
.41
.34
.99
1.26
1.70
1.82
----------.04
.19
.28
.38
.25
.29
.35
.45
.73
1.26
1.73
2.33
2.71
3.01
4.30
5.21
6.41
6.56
202.50 202.50 200.84 203.53 207.50 210.33 212.62 215.72 213.14 213.57 224.23 221.90 221.28 204.48
19.7
27.9
26.0
10.8
18.5
22.4
14.9
21.6
15.8
16.6
11.3
14.2
14.8
14.2
1.29
1.87
1.63
.62
.96
1.28
.97
1.11
.86
.95
.60
.76
.80
.75
----------.4%
1.0%
1.1%
1.5%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10
THIS
STOCK
3045
39.3%
14.5%
1085
205
35.0%
6.7%
650
Nil
1525
13.5%
13.5%
7.5%
43%
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
3175
40.0%
15.5%
1110
250
38.0%
7.9%
600
Nil
1550
16.0%
16.0%
10.5%
35%
A
45
65
55
ABERCROMBIE NYSE-ANF
TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL
3
3
3
High:
Low:
Raised 10/2/09
New 11/20/98
Raised 7/16/10
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
Annl Total
Price
Gain
Return
High
80 (+115%) 22%
Low
55 (+50%) 12%
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell
S
0
0
0
O
0
0
0
N
0
0
0
D
0
0
0
J
0
0
0
F
0
0
0
M
0
1
2
A
0
1
2
50.8
21.0
RECENT
PRICE
31.3
8.0
47.5
16.2
33.8
15.0
36.6 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 15.0) P/E RATIO 1.33 YLD 1.9%
37.00 P/ERATIO 21.1(Trailing:
33.7
20.7
47.4
23.1
74.1
44.2
79.4
50.0
85.8
67.7
82.1
13.7
42.3
17.0
51.1
29.9
LEGENDS
8.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
2-for-1 split 6/99
Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
Latest recession began 12/07
128
96
80
64
48
40
32
24
M
0
0
0
16
12
% TOT. RETURN 6/10
Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
128
to Buy
to Sell
166
Hlds(000) 96021
4Q2009
159
147
85548
1Q2010
159
163
88509
Percent
shares
traded
75
50
25
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
The Abercrombie & Fitch brand was es- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
tablished in 1892 as a supplier of rugged 12.53 13.80 16.41 18.05 23.49 31.74 37.58 43.52 40.40 33.29 36.50 39.55
outdoor gear. In 1992, through the ex- 1.91 2.12 2.59 2.87 3.99 5.32 6.44 7.65
5.68
3.61
4.25
5.00
change of 43 million shares of Class B 1.55 1.65 1.94 2.06 2.50 3.75 4.59 5.20
3.05
.89
1.75
2.35
stock, Limited, Inc. repositioned the compa----.50
.60
.70
.70
.70
.70
.70
.70
ny as a more fashion-oriented apparel busi- 4.28 6.02 7.71 9.21 7.78 11.34 15.92 18.78 21.06 20.78 21.70 23.40
ness. On September 26, 1996, an IPO of 98.80 98.90 97.27 94.61 86.04 87.73 88.30 86.16 87.64 87.99 88.50 88.50
8.05 million shares of Class A stock was 11.6 18.5 12.8 14.0 14.6 15.8 14.1 14.9
16.9
32.9 Bold figures are
Value Line
sold resulting in an 84.2% ownership by The
.75
.95
.70
.80
.77
.84
.76
.79
1.02
2.20
estimates
Limited. Goldman Sachs led the spinoff on
----1.4%
1.0%
1.1%
.9%
1.4%
2.4%
May 29, 1998 issuing .01367 of an Aber- 1237.6 1364.9 1595.8 1707.8 2021.3 2784.7 3318.2 3749.9 3540.3 2928.6 3230 3500
crombie share for each Limited share.
43.6% 43.9% 44.7% 45.9% 50.2% 70.9% 71.0% 71.9% 73.1% 72.5% 73.0% 73.0%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10
Total Debt $70.6 mill. Due in 5 Yrs $70.6 mill.
LT Debt $70.6 mill.
LT Interest $6.0 mill.
(4% of Capl)
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $324.3 mill.
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Pfd Stock None
Common Stock 88,209,172 shs.
as of 6/4/10
MARKET CAP: $3.3 billion (Mid Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
522.1
712.5
Receivables
53.1
90.9
Inventory (FIFO)
372.4
310.7
Other
137.2
121.8
Current Assets
1084.8 1235.9
Accts Payable
92.8
110.2
Debt Due
--Other
357.0
339.2
Current Liab.
449.8
449.4
ANNUAL RATES Past
of change (per sh)
10 Yrs.
Sales
17.5%
Cash Flow
17.0%
Earnings
12.5%
Dividends
-Book Value
27.5%
Fiscal
Year
Begins
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
VALUE
LINE
5/1/10
632.9
91.8
316.4
143.9
1185.0
110.1
-305.7
415.8
Full
QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.)AF
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
742.4 804.5 973.9 1229.0 3749.9
800.2 845.8 896.3 998.0 3540.3
601.7 637.2 753.7 936.0 2928.6
687.8 710
820 1012.2 3230
750
775
890 1085
3500
Full
EARNINGS PER SHARE AB
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
.65
.88
1.29
2.40
5.20
.69
.87
.72
.78
3.05
d.26
d.09
.55
.68
.89
d.13
.15
.55
1.18
1.75
d.05
.25
.70
1.45
2.35
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID D
Full
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year
.175
.175
.175
.175
.70
.175
.175
.175
.175
.70
.175
.175
.175
.175
.70
.175
.175
.175
.175
.70
.175
.175
(A) Fiscal year ends Saturday closest to January 31st of the following year. (B) Diluted earnings. Quarterly figures may not add to total due
to difference in share count. Excl. n.r. chg.: 04,
23.0%
354
158.1
39.5%
12.8%
149.0
-422.7
37.4%
37.4%
37.4%
--
22.9%
491
168.7
39.0%
12.4%
241.6
-595.4
28.3%
28.3%
28.3%
--
23.2%
597
194.9
38.4%
12.2%
389.7
-749.5
26.0%
26.0%
26.0%
--
23.3%
700
205.1
38.8%
12.0%
472.7
-871.3
23.5%
23.5%
23.5%
--
24.1%
788
237.4
38.5%
11.7%
238.4
-669.3
35.5%
35.5%
28.5%
20%
18.8% 12.2%
1125
1096
272.3
79.0
39.6% 33.9%
7.7%
2.7%
635.0 786.5
100.0
71.2
1845.6 1827.9
14.1%
4.3%
14.8%
4.3%
11.5%
1.0%
22%
78%
15.0%
1135
155
35.0%
4.8%
800
70.0
1920
8.0%
8.0%
5.0%
40%
16.5%
1170
210
37.0%
6.0%
880
70.0
2070
10.0%
10.0%
7.0%
29%
THIS
STOCK
VL ARITH.
INDEX
23.3
-55.6
-51.8
29.6
-8.6
24.0
13-15
Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh AB
Divds Decld per sh D
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg C
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield
50.00
7.40
4.40
.74
31.40
86.00
15.0
1.00
1.1%
Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin E
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
4300
73.0%
21.0%
1250
385
39.0%
9.0%
1100
Nil
2700
14.5%
14.5%
12.0%
17%
and button-downs. Has 1,097 stores located throughout U. S., Canada, and the U.K. as of 1/30/10. RUEHL discontd in 2009. Has abt
80,000 empls. (incl. 9,000 full-time). Chairman & CEO: Michael Jeffries owns 3.3% of common; other officers and directors, .7% (5/10
proxy). Inc.: Delaware. Addr.: 6301 Fitch Path, New Albany, Ohio
43054. Tel.: 614-283-6500. Internet: www.abercrombie.com.
as Europe, Japan, and Canada, where customer response has been positive and
growth opportunities are plentiful. A&F
flagship stores are on track to debut this
year in Denmark and Japan, while some
25 mall-based Hollister stores will open
across Europe and a Gilly Hicks (lingerie
chain) location will open in the U.K. ANF
also plans to open two flagships in France
and Spain in 2011, and is looking to set up
15 more of those shops in Europe and Asia
next year. Accordingly,
Weve increased our estimates across
the board, although were keeping a
somewhat cautious stance, pending moreconsistent comps and earnings trends. The
debt crisis unfolding in Europe is of some
concern, too, as it can ultimately restrain
growth abroad.
Abercrombie shares have slipped
some 30% since our May review, partly
reflecting market volatility of late. But
based on the current price and our upwardly revised projections to 2013-2015,
supported by high-margin global expansion, appreciation potential is now more
tempting.
J. Susan Ferrara
August 6, 2010
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
A
40
70
45
ANNTAYLOR NYSE-ANN
TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL
2
3
3
RECENT
PRICE
High:
Low:
Raised 2/12/10
23.6
13.9
19.9
6.7
LEGENDS
8.5 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Raised 7/30/10
3-for-2 split 5/02
BETA 1.25 (1.00 = Market)
3-for-2 split 5/04
Options: Yes
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
Shaded area: prior recession
Annl Total Latest recession began 12/07
17.5
9.4
22.1
12.8
24.4 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 20.0) P/E RATIO 0.93 YLD
16.87 P/ERATIO 14.7(Trailing:
27.2
11.4
31.4
20.0
34.8
20.4
45.2
32.0
39.9
25.1
29.2
3.7
17.5
2.4
Nil
25.2
11.6
VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015
Raised 8/18/00
64
48
40
32
24
20
16
12
3-for-2
3-for-2
Price
Gain
Return
High
40 (+135%) 24%
Low
25 (+50%) 10%
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell
S
0
0
0
O
0
0
0
N
0
0
0
D
0
0
1
J
0
0
0
F
0
0
0
M
0
2
4
A
0
1
0
M
0
2
2
8
6
% TOT. RETURN 6/10
Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
96
to Buy
to Sell
92
Hlds(000) 64058
4Q2009
81
95
63626
1Q2010
85
87
60639
Percent
shares
traded
75
50
25
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
AnnTaylor began in 1954 as a single store 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
operated by the Liebeskind family in New 19.01 19.66 20.51 23.33 26.24 28.60 33.77 39.36 38.33 31.11 33.20 34.70
Haven, Conn. Changed ownership three 1.62 1.42 1.90 2.24 2.12 2.55 3.59 3.84
2.16
2.07
2.85
3.10
times between 77 and 86. In February 89,
.88
.60
1.15
1.42
.99
1.26
1.98
1.83
.02
.31
1.15
1.30
Merrill Lynch and a management group ac----------Nil
Nil
quired the company from Campeau for $431 8.85 9.26 10.61 12.20 13.12 14.27 15.13 13.79
7.27
7.10
8.20
9.50
mill., financed mainly by co.-issued debt. 64.85 66.10 67.32 68.07 70.63 72.49 69.37 60.88 57.26 58.77 59.00 59.00
IPO came on 5/16/91; 14,485,400 shares
14.5
22.4
14.8
14.0
25.9
21.2
19.2
18.0
NMF
33.7 Bold figures are
Value Line
were sold at $11.61 each in deal led by Mer.94
1.15
.81
.80
1.37
1.13
1.04
.96
NMF
2.22
estimates
rill Lynch and Robertson, Stephens.
----------CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10
Total Debt None
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $180.5 mill.
Pension Assets-1/10 $28.7 mill.
Oblig. $32.4 mill.
Preferred Stock None
Common Stock 58,793,097 shs.
as of 5/17/10
MARKET CAP: $1.0 billion (Mid Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
112.3
210.1
Receivables
14.1
19.3
Inventory (Avg Cost) 173.4
169.1
Other
123.8
106.4
Current Assets
423.6
504.9
Accts Payable
109.2
77.0
Debt Due
--Other
196.4
198.4
Current Liab.
305.6
275.4
ANNUAL RATES Past
of change (per sh)
10 Yrs.
Sales
9.0%
Cash Flow
7.5%
Earnings
2.0%
Dividends
-Book Value
2.5%
Fiscal
Year
Begins
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
5/1/10
212.8
31.6
199.6
100.3
544.3
90.2
-168.5
278.7
Full
QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.) A
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
580.3 614.5 600.9 600.8 2396.5
591.7 592.3 527.2 483.4 2194.6
426.8 470.2 462.4 469.1 1828.5
476.2 500
495
493.8 1965
495
525
520
515
2055
Full
EARNINGS PER SHARE AB
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
.46
.50
.66
.19
1.83
.47
.54 - d1.03
.02
d.04
.06
.20
.05
.31
.38
.32
.33
.12
1.15
.40
.37
.38
.15
1.30
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID
Full
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year
NO CASH DIVIDENDS
BEING PAID
THIS
STOCK
VL ARITH.
INDEX
103.9
-54.1
-33.0
29.6
-8.6
24.0
Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh ABE
Divds Decld per sh
Book Value per sh C
Common Shs Outstg
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield
Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
13-15
41.10
4.00
1.90
Nil
14.40
59.00
17.5
1.15
Nil
2425
58.5%
13.0%
950
115
40.0%
4.7%
625
Nil
850
13.5%
13.5%
13.5%
Nil
2194.6 1828.5
53.6% 60.1%
5.6%
7.2%
935
907
1.2
17.8
29.8% 30.4%
.1%
1.0%
118.0 229.5
--416.5 417.2
.3%
4.3%
.3%
4.3%
.3%
4.3%
---
prototype is 5,300 sq. ft. (LOFT, avg. 5,900 sq. ft.). Sales per avg.
sq. ft. of retail space: $337 in 09 vs. $402 in 08. Has about 18,800
employees. T. Rowe Price Associates own 11.8% of common
stock; FMR Corp., 11.2%. Off. & dir., 5.9% (4/10 Proxy). President
and CEO: Kay Krill. Inc.: DE. Address: 7 Times Square, New York,
NY 10036. Tel.: 212-541-3300. Internet: www.anntaylor.com.
05, 13; 08, $5.87; 09, 64. Quarterly earnings may not sum to total due to rounding or
change in share count. Next earnings report
due late August.
1960
59.5%
10.5%
910
67.0
40.0%
3.4%
335
Nil
485
14.0%
14.0%
14.0%
Nil
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
2055
59.5%
11.5%
925
75.0
40.0%
3.6%
425
Nil
560
13.5%
13.5%
13.5%
Nil
B+
15
50
15
1
3
3
RECENT
PRICE
High:
Low:
Raised 8/6/10
8.7
1.6
12.1 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: NMF) P/E RATIO 0.65 YLD
29.73 P/ERATIO 10.4(Trailing:
10.3
2.9
15.3
7.6
15.8
8.0
14.7
9.4
21.3
12.2
24.9
8.3
29.9
10.8
LEGENDS
13.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Lowered 7/23/10
3-for-2 split 4/04
BETA 1.05 (1.00 = Market)
3-for-2 split 8/07
3-for-2 split 3/10
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
Options: Yes
Annl Total Shaded area: prior recession
Price
Gain
Return Latest recession began 12/07
to Buy
Options
to Sell
O
0
0
2
N
0
0
0
32.2
21.6
D
0
0
1
J
0
0
2
120
100
80
64
48
3-for-2
24%
11%
32
24
20
16
12
3-for-2
3-for-2
F M
0 0
0 0
5 10
A
0
0
7
M
0
0
0
Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
166
to Buy
to Sell
163
Hlds(000) 110011
4Q2009
155
200
98810
1Q2010
156
172
90666
Percent
shares
traded
60
40
20
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
Aeropostales initial public offering took 2000C 2001C 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
place in May of 2002. Underwritten by Bear, 2.04 2.86 4.62 6.28 7.37 9.90 12.16 15.90 18.76 23.73 26.30 28.40
Stearns, & Co., Merrill Lynch and Pierce,
.13
.14
.25
.57
.77
.87
1.15
1.66
1.94
3.00
3.45
3.75
Fenner & Smith Inc. The issuance of
.07
.08
.24
.41
.65
.67
.85
1.20
1.47
2.27
2.85
3.15
32,343,750 shares generated proceeds of
----------Nil
Nil
$240.7 million. The offering price to the pub.15
.27
1.07
1.59
1.82
2.34
2.69
1.97
3.53
4.62
7.30 10.75
lic was $8 a share. (All data adjusted for 104.78 106.44 119.16 117.03 130.76 121.61 116.20 100.03 100.50 94.00 94.00 95.00
stock splits.)
--18.9
16.7
18.6
18.3
15.2
14.1
12.4
9.9 Bold figures are
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10
Total Debt None
Leases, Uncapitalized: Annual rentals $113.3
mill.
Pension Assets-2/10 None
Oblig. $25.3 mill.
2008
2009
5/1/10
228.5
-126.4
39.0
393.9
77.2
-98.2
175.4
347.0
-183.0
43.4
530.0
90.9
-150.9
241.8
312.7
-122.7
50.4
485.8
72.0
-121.0
193.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
---
---
1.03
--
.95
--
213.4
30.6%
9.3%
178
9.4
38.0%
4.4%
8.2
-16.0
58.5%
58.5%
58.5%
--
304.8
29.6%
7.9%
357
10.9
39.3%
3.6%
10.8
-35.3
30.9%
30.9%
37.5%
--
550.9
31.1%
11.1%
367
31.3
40.0%
5.7%
86.8
-128.0
24.5%
24.5%
16.7%
32%
734.9
33.0%
13.7%
459
54.3
39.0%
7.4%
140.9
-185.7
29.2%
29.2%
29.2%
--
.98
--
.97
--
.82
--
.75
--
.75
--
Value Line
estimates
.67
--
1885.5 2230.1
37.1% 40.4%
15.6% 19.5%
914
952
149.4 229.5
40.0% 40.1%
7.9% 10.3%
218.5 288.2
--355.1 434.5
42.1% 52.8%
42.1% 52.8%
42.1% 52.8%
---
2470
42.0%
19.5%
1005
270
40.0%
10.9%
330
Nil
685
39.5%
39.5%
39.5%
Nil
2700
42.0%
20.5%
1070
300
40.0%
11.1%
400
Nil
1020
29.5%
29.5%
29.5%
Nil
THIS
STOCK
VL ARITH.
INDEX
25.4
54.6
91.8
29.6
-8.6
24.0
13-15
Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh B
Divds Decld per sh
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg D
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield
33.50
4.95
4.25
Nil
21.95
96.00
13.5
.90
Nil
Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
3215
42.0%
21.0%
1200
410
39.0%
11.4%
850
Nil
2130
19.0%
19.0%
19.0%
Nil
BUSINESS: Aeropostale is a mall-based specialty retailer that targets young women and men ages 11 to 20 years. The companys
objective is to provide high-quality, active-oriented casual apparel
and accessories at value prices. Merchandise can only be purchased at company stores or organized sales events at college
campuses. In 2009, Aeropostale operated 938 stores in 49 states
and Canada. Also operates 14 P.S. from Aeropostale units. Average store size is 3,500 sq. ft. Has about 14,460 employees (75%
part-time). BlackRock owns 15.8% of stock; Barclays, 12.9%; FMR,
6.8%; Vanguard, 5.6%; Off./dir., .8% (5/10 Proxy). Chrmn: Julian R.
Geiger. Inc.: Delaware. Address: 1372 Broadway, 8th Floor, New
York, NY 10018. Tel.: 646-485-5398. Web: www.aeropostale.com.
VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015
New 2/13/04
High
70 (+135%)
Low
45 (+50%)
Insider Decisions
S
0
0
1
Nil
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
B++
40
80
85
2
3
5
RECENT
PRICE
High:
Low:
Raised 4/16/10
14.5
5.6
9.4
4.8
10.0
6.5
11.3
7.0
10.1 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 14.0) P/E RATIO 0.62 YLD 3.3%
28.27 P/ERATIO 9.9(Trailing:
10.2
6.9
14.2
9.6
20.6
12.5
24.4
14.1
LEGENDS
11.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Lowered 8/6/10
2-for-1 split 4/97
BETA 1.05 (1.00 = Market)
3-for-2 split 6/98
3-for-2 split 1/07
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
3-for-2 split 10/08
Annl Total Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
Price
Gain
Return
Latest recession began 12/07
High
75 (+165%) 30%
S
0
0
0
O
0
0
1
N
0
0
0
44.6
13.6
39.1
19.2
40.3
27.4
New 11/20/98
Low
50 (+75%)
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell
29.1
21.5
D
0
2
0
J
0
1
2
F
0
0
0
3-for-2
128
96
80
64
48
40
32
24
3-for-2
18%
M
0
1
0
A
0
2
4
M
0
0
0
16
12
% TOT. RETURN 6/10
Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
100
to Buy
to Sell
126
Hlds(000) 29013
4Q2009
95
92
26828
1Q2010
71
88
27135
Percent
shares
traded
9
6
3
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
3.14
.28
.16
-1.12
46.17
13.1
.86
--
3.73
.33
.21
-1.33
46.20
11.5
.77
--
4.38
.40
.28
-1.66
47.13
15.4
.96
--
5.50
.59
.47
-2.21
48.73
14.8
.85
--
6.84
.83
.65
-2.96
49.43
18.7
.97
--
8.05
1.01
.73
-3.50
46.63
12.9
.74
--
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
VALUE
LINE
5/1/10
154.3
5.0
84.7
19.3
263.3
33.3
-53.3
86.6
Full
Fiscal
Year
619.9
792.0
898.3
940
1000
Full
Fiscal
Year
1.63
2.24
2.73
2.85
3.05
Full
Year
.31
.57
.78
.80
8.58
1.01
.72
-4.23
45.85
9.1
.59
--
8.16
.94
.68
-4.92
47.51
12.5
.64
--
8.47
.94
.65
-5.59
47.35
14.2
.78
--
8.75
.97
.69
.09
6.16
48.34
12.6
.72
1.0%
9.65
1.22
.86
.20
6.82
48.79
14.3
.76
1.6%
11.52
1.60
1.13
.27
6.89
43.51
14.2
.76
1.7%
12.02
1.70
1.24
.37
6.50
44.11
14.8
.80
2.0%
13.85
2.14
1.63
.60
7.56
44.76
15.2
.81
2.4%
17.25
2.75
2.24
.73
7.35
45.91
13.0
.78
2.5%
19.37
3.29
2.73
.80
7.64
46.38
11.0
.73
2.7%
393.2
36.3%
16.0%
274
34.8
36.7%
8.8%
135.9
-194.1
17.9%
17.9%
17.9%
--
387.6
36.1%
15.3%
295
32.9
36.9%
8.5%
176.9
-233.7
14.1%
14.1%
14.1%
--
401.1
35.9%
14.5%
304
32.1
36.5%
8.0%
143.9
-264.7
12.1%
12.1%
12.1%
--
422.8
36.9%
14.5%
316
33.7
36.2%
8.0%
180.2
-297.6
11.3%
11.3%
9.9%
13%
470.9
39.8%
16.9%
327
43.2
36.3%
9.2%
229.6
-332.9
13.0%
13.0%
10.1%
22%
501.1
42.2%
18.7%
338
51.9
37.0%
10.4%
200.9
-299.8
17.3%
17.3%
13.4%
23%
530.1
42.8%
18.6%
350
55.7
36.7%
10.5%
189.0
-286.6
19.4%
19.4%
13.7%
29%
619.9
44.4%
21.0%
368
75.2
36.7%
12.1%
184.4
-338.3
22.2%
22.2%
14.3%
36%
792.0
46.1%
23.2%
387
104.4
36.7%
13.2%
197.6
-337.2
31.0%
31.0%
21.0%
32%
898.3
47.4%
25.0%
401
127.3
37.6%
14.2%
172.8
-354.3
35.9%
35.9%
25.5%
29%
20.20
3.45
2.85
.83
8.60
46.50
21.75
3.95
3.05
.95
10.54
46.00
940
47.5%
25.0%
422
135
37.0%
14.4%
200
Nil
400
34.0%
34.0%
24.0%
29%
1000
47.5%
25.0%
442
143
37.0%
14.3%
240
Nil
485
29.5%
29.5%
20.5%
31%
THIS
STOCK
VL ARITH.
INDEX
3.9
31.3
81.8
29.6
-8.6
24.0
13-15
Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh A B
Divds Decld per sh C
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg D
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield
30.70
5.25
4.20
1.50
16.25
44.00
15.0
1.00
2.4%
Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
1350
45.0%
24.0%
505
185
37.0%
13.7%
340
Nil
715
26.0%
26.0%
16.5%
36%
BUSINESS: The Buckle, Inc. is a retailer of medium- to higherpriced casual apparel for fashion-conscious young men and women
aged 15 to 30. The company operates 415 stores in 41 states mainly in the central, northwestern, and southern regions of the U.S. under the names Buckle and The Buckle. The merchandise mix
includes denims, casual tops, sweaters, slacks, outerwear, acces-
sories, and shoes. 2009 sales: denim, 43%; tops and sweaters,
37%; shoes, 5%; all other categories, 15%. Has about 7,000 employees. Off. and dir. own 45.3% of stock; Three institutional investors own 25.6% (4/10 Proxy). Chairman: Daniel J. Hirschfeld. CEO
& Pres.: Dennis H. Nelson. Inc.: NE. Address: 2407 W. 24th St.,
Kearney, NE 68845. Tel.: 308 236-8491. Internet: www.buckle.com.
due to change in share count. Next earnings divd paid 1/07, $2.00 paid 10/08, and $1.80
report due August 19th.
paid 10/09.
(C) Dividend historically paid in late January, (D) In millions, adjusted for stock splits.
April, July, and October. Excl. $1.33 special
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
A
50
95
100
3
3
4
High:
Low:
Raised 11/20/09
New 8/11/06
Lowered 8/6/10
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
Annl Total
Price
Gain
Return
High
40 (+65%) 16%
Low
25
(+5%)
4%
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell
S
0
0
0
O
0
3
3
N
0
0
0
D
0
0
0
J
0
0
0
F
0
0
0
M
0
0
0
A
0
0
2
RECENT
PRICE
10.4
5.0
9.9
6.1
14.6
8.7
18.5
9.4
13.2 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 13.0) P/E RATIO 0.82 YLD 3.1%
24.13 P/ERATIO 13.0(Trailing:
17.0
10.8
19.7
12.6
24.4
16.8
26.7
19.3
25.7
13.2
19.4
11.3
23.2
12.8
25.6
18.5
LEGENDS
10.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
3-for-2 split 6/05
Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
Latest recession began 12/07
64
48
40
32
24
20
16
12
M
0
0
0
8
6
% TOT. RETURN 6/10
Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
58
to Buy
to Sell
94
Hlds(000) 26604
4Q2009
62
65
26362
1Q2010
55
71
25998
Percent
shares
traded
24
16
8
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
11.18
.59
.41
.10
3.32
42.60
19.7
1.29
1.2%
11.47
.46
.28
.11
3.51
42.70
16.9
1.13
2.2%
11.51
.44
.25
.11
3.56
42.69
17.5
1.10
2.4%
12.42
.61
.41
.11
3.82
41.25
11.6
.67
2.2%
13.44
.78
.57
.13
4.26
40.45
15.2
.79
1.5%
15.37
1.08
.83
.19
4.79
39.37
9.4
.54
2.4%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Ends
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
VALUE
LINE
5/1/10
220.1
40.7
106.7
15.5
383.0
82.3
-77.8
160.1
18.67
1.43
1.11
.35
6.21
37.80
10.7
.55
3.0%
19.11
1.58
1.18
.39
7.05
38.34
11.8
.64
2.8%
23.70
1.62
.89
.41
6.29
30.87
15.4
.88
3.0%
24.80
1.77
1.11
.46
6.77
31.21
13.8
.73
3.0%
26.77
2.08
1.41
.51
7.68
31.24
14.4
.77
2.5%
27.76
2.29
1.62
.58
8.77
31.55
14.1
.76
2.5%
28.80
1.86
1.03
.65
8.42
29.39
19.6
1.04
3.2%
29.18
1.91
1.15
.66
8.91
29.39
13.6
.82
4.2%
29.88
2.28
1.55
.66
9.85
29.59
12.1
.80
3.5%
669.1
33.4%
10.4%
859
39.0
35.0%
5.8%
125.7
-207.8
18.8%
18.8%
13.7%
27%
705.7
33.9%
10.9%
937
43.1
35.0%
6.1%
139.6
-234.7
18.4%
18.4%
12.6%
31%
732.7
32.3%
9.2%
1022
45.8
36.2%
6.3%
162.6
-270.2
17.0%
17.0%
11.5%
32%
731.8
30.5%
6.7%
1102
31.4
36.3%
4.3%
112.9
21.5
194.1
14.6%
16.2%
8.7%
46%
773.8
31.6%
7.4%
1177
34.8
36.3%
4.5%
133.8
16.0
211.2
15.5%
16.5%
9.8%
41%
836.4
34.6%
10.3%
1244
44.8
36.3%
5.4%
139.1
-239.9
18.7%
18.7%
12.1%
35%
875.9
34.6%
10.4%
1276
51.5
35.4%
5.9%
176.4
-276.8
18.6%
18.6%
12.0%
35%
846.4
32.4%
7.5%
1318
32.3
34.4%
3.8%
144.2
-247.4
13.1%
13.1%
4.9%
63%
857.7
34.5%
7.9%
1281
33.6
36.1%
3.9%
164.6
16.0
261.8
12.8%
12.8%
5.4%
58%
884.0
37.6%
9.8%
1271
45.8
33.6%
5.2%
202.3
-291.3
15.7%
15.7%
9.0%
43%
31.35
2.60
1.85
.70
10.50
29.50
31.65
2.80
2.00
.74
11.15
30.00
925
37.5%
10.5%
1285
55.0
36.0%
5.9%
210
Nil
310
17.5%
17.5%
11.5%
38%
950
37.5%
10.5%
1290
60.0
36.0%
6.3%
225
Nil
335
18.0%
18.0%
12.0%
36%
VL ARITH.
INDEX
30.5
12.4
25.9
29.6
-8.6
24.0
13-15
Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh AB
Divds Decld per sh C
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg D
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield
35.35
2.95
2.15
.80
13.35
30.00
15.0
1.00
2.3%
Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
1060
36.0%
11.5%
1360
65.0
36.0%
6.1%
300
Nil
400
16.5%
16.5%
11.0%
34%
BUSINESS: The Cato Corporation operates 1,285 womens fashion specialty retail stores in the southeastern United States. It offers
an assortment of apparel and accessories, including dressy, career,
and casual sportswear, dresses, coats, shoes, lingerie, costume
jewelry, and handbags in junior/missy and plus sizes. A major portion of the Companys merchandise is sold under its private label
17.67
1.28
1.02
.28
5.49
37.87
7.8
.51
3.6%
THIS
STOCK
recurring loss: 96, (13). Next earnings report March, June, and Sep.
due late August. Earnings may not sum due to (D) In millions, adjusted for stock split.
rounding.
(C) Dividends historically paid early Jan.,
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
B++
60
60
70
4
3
1
RECENT
PRICE
High:
Low:
Lowered 7/23/10
2.5
1.0
4.8
1.0
LEGENDS
13.5 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Raised 8/6/10
2-for-1 split 1/00
BETA 1.25 (1.00 = Market)
3-for-2 split 5/01
3-for-2 split 1/02
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
2-for-1 split 7/02
Annl Total 2-for-1 split 2/05
Price
Gain
Return Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
High
35 (+270%) 40%
Latest recession began 12/07
Low
20 (+115%) 22%
7.0
2.3
11.9
6.2
18.4 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 27.0) P/E RATIO 0.84 YLD 1.7%
9.40 P/ERATIO 13.4(Trailing:
19.7
8.4
23.8
16.9
46.3
21.8
49.4
17.3
27.9
9.0
10.9
1.7
15.4
3.4
16.6
9.2
VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015
Raised 8/7/09
64
48
40
32
24
20
16
12
2-for-1
2-for-1
3-for-2
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell
S
2
2
1
O
0
0
0
N
0
1
1
D
0
0
0
J
0
0
0
F
0
0
2
M
0
1
0
A
0
0
0
M
1
0
0
8
6
% TOT. RETURN 6/10
Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
141
144
141
to Buy
to Sell
126
134
135
Hlds(000) 158554 159711 162306
Percent
shares
traded
75
50
25
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
THIS
STOCK
VL ARITH.
INDEX
2.2
-59.2
-71.0
29.6
-8.6
24.0
Chicos FAS, Inc., founded by Marvin J. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 VALUE LINE PUB., INC. 13-15
Gralnick and wife, Helene B. Gralnick, was 1.65 2.32 3.11 4.39 5.96 7.73 9.37 9.73
8.93
9.62 10.75 11.55 Sales per sh A
13.95
incorporated in Florida, following its first
.22
.32
.49
.70
.99
1.34
1.34
1.01
.44
.93
1.25
1.45 Cash Flowper sh
1.85
store opening in 1983. In April 1993, the
.17
.25
.39
.57
.78
1.06
.93
.49
d.11
.39
.70
.90 Earnings per sh AB
1.30
company completed an initial public offering
--------.16
--.16
.16 Divds Decld per sh D
of approximately 50.4 million shares of com.54
.88
1.41
2.14
3.13
4.44
4.57
5.18
5.09
5.51
6.05
6.80 Book Value per sh
9.65
mon stock, priced at about $0.39 per share. 157.49 163.16 170.56 175.07 178.96 181.73 175.75 176.25 177.13 178.13 179.00 179.00 Common Shs Outstg C 179.00
Robert W. Baird acted as the lead un- 16.0 20.8 23.2 24.3 27.2 33.5 30.5 37.2 NMF 26.2 Bold figures are Avg Annl P/E Ratio
21.0
Value Line
derwriter for the offering. (All share-related 1.04 1.07 1.27 1.39 1.44 1.78 1.65 1.97 NMF 1.75
Relative P/E Ratio
1.40
estimates
figures have been adjusted to reflect sub----------Avg Annl Divd Yield
.6%
sequent stock splits.)
2500
259.5 378.1 531.1 768.5 1066.9 1404.6 1646.5 1714.3 1582.4 1713.2
1920
2070 Sales ($mill) A
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10
Total Debt None
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $129.2 mill.
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Pfd Stock None
Common Stock 178,711,981 shs.
as of 5/19/10
MARKET CAP: $1.7 billion (Mid Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
268.7
423.5
Receivables
34.0
3.9
Inventory (LIFO)
132.4
138.5
Other
51.3
34.1
Current Assets
486.4
600.0
Accts Payable
56.5
79.2
Debt Due
--Other
90.2
115.5
Current Liab.
146.7
194.7
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
481.9
3.9
160.5
36.7
683.0
101.6
-146.3
247.9
59.4%
20.6%
311
42.2
38.0%
11.2%
58.0
7.9
143.5
28.1%
29.4%
29.4%
--
60.7%
23.1%
378
66.8
38.0%
12.6%
105.5
-240.1
27.8%
27.8%
27.8%
--
61.5%
23.9%
557
100.2
38.0%
13.0%
126.0
1.3
374.8
26.6%
26.7%
26.7%
--
61.7%
24.4%
657
141.2
37.7%
13.2%
269.3
-560.9
25.2%
25.2%
25.2%
--
61.3%
24.7%
763
194.0
36.7%
13.8%
415.3
-806.4
24.1%
24.1%
24.1%
--
59.2%
19.5%
920
166.6
36.3%
10.1%
327.7
-803.9
20.7%
20.7%
20.7%
--
61.9%
12.5%
1038
86.8
34.4%
5.1%
305.5
-912.5
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
--
58.0%
3.7%
1076
d19.1
NMF
NMF
339.7
-902.2
NMF
NMF
NMF
--
61.7%
11.9%
1080
69.7
36.6%
4.1%
405.3
-981.9
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
--
63.0%
15.0%
1125
125
37.5%
6.5%
500
Nil
1085
11.5%
11.5%
9.0%
23%
63.0%
17.0%
1170
162
38.0%
7.8%
600
Nil
1220
13.0%
13.0%
11.0%
18%
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
63.0%
18.5%
1280
233
38.0%
9.3%
1000
Nil
1730
13.5%
13.5%
12.0%
12%
5/1/10
60.4%
19.8%
250
28.4
38.0%
10.9%
25.5
7.2
85.3
31.0%
33.3%
33.3%
--
(A) Fiscal year ends the Saturday nearest January 31st of the following calendar year.
(B) Diluted earnings. Excl. loss on discontd
ops.: 07, 1. Excl. nonrec. gain: 07, 2. Next
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
B+
20
50
30
RANKS
3
3
4
PERFORMANCE
Technical
SAFETY
BETA 1.80
Below
Average
10.79
4.31
RELATIVE
DIVD
P/E RATIO 13.4 P/E RATIO 0.80 YLD
3.08 TRAILING
7.95
4.93
15.10
6.00
13.82
5.12
5.26
0.35
Nil
3.78
0.26
VALUE
LINE
4.49
2.20
High
Low
LEGENDS
12 Mos Mov Avg
Average
Average
9.44
1.95
RECENT
PRICE
18
13
8
(1.00 = Market)
Financial Strength
5
4
3
Price Stability
45
Earnings Predictability
15
8200
VOL.
(thous.)
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
11.14
d.57
d1.22
-2.55
35.75
---398.3
31.4%
2.9%
555
d30.7
-NMF
50.2
106.6
91.1
NMF
NMF
NMF
--
12.25
d.02
d.27
-2.30
35.07
---429.5
37.5%
5.7%
480
d9.7
-NMF
48.4
122.4
80.8
NMF
NMF
NMF
--
10.67
.32
.03
-2.25
34.23
NMF
NMF
-365.0
41.2%
4.9%
527
1.0
-.3%
22.2
117.8
77.0
2.6%
1.3%
1.3%
--
12.23
.68
.30
-2.59
34.46
22.1
1.17
-421.4
43.2%
7.2%
518
10.8
-2.6%
33.3
95.4
89.2
7.5%
12.1%
12.1%
--
9.19
1.13
.98
-4.29
50.86
11.6
.63
-467.5
45.5%
8.9%
508
42.6
-9.1%
66.8
-218.0
19.6%
19.6%
19.6%
--
11.21
.52
.09
-4.40
41.39
NMF
NMF
-464.1
44.4%
6.0%
488
3.9
41.4%
.8%
41.0
12.5
181.9
2.3%
2.2%
2.2%
--
10.72
d1.08
d1.50
-1.73
41.45
---444.2
42.7%
2.6%
494
d62.0
-NMF
20.0
7.6
71.8
NMF
NMF
NMF
--
8.38
.46
.14
-1.98
47.17
14.0
.93
-395.2
44.2%
5.9%
479
6.1
19.4%
1.5%
45.6
2.7
93.2
6.9%
6.6%
6.6%
--
--.29 A,B
---10.6
-----------------
2011/2012
.34 C/NA
9.1/NA
Bold figures
are consensus
earnings
estimates
and, using the
recent prices,
P/E ratios.
ANo. of analysts changing earn. est. in last 17 days: 0 up, 0 down, consensus 5-year earnings growth 15.0% per year. BBased upon 3 analysts estimates. CBased upon 3 analysts estimates.
ANNUAL RATES
of change (per share)
Sales
Cash Flow
Earnings
Dividends
Book Value
Fiscal
Year
01/31/08
01/31/09
01/31/10
01/31/11
01/31/12
Calendar
2007
2008
2009
2010
2008
5.0
2.0
98.6
9.1
114.7
2009
4.3
2.5
90.0
8.4
105.2
5/ 1/10
5.6
2.4
98.7
9.9
116.6
Property, Plant
& Equip, at cost
Accum Depreciation
123.1 444.2 Net Property
110.7 395.2 Other
Total Assets
112.9
60.7
52.2
34.3
201.2
113.5
71.6
41.9
33.9
181.0
--39.4
33.8
189.8
1 Yr.
-22.0%
---14.0%
01/31/09 107.6
01/31/10 97.6
01/31/11 95.2
01/31/12
Fiscal
Year
ASSETS ($mill.)
Cash Assets
Receivables
Inventory (Avg cost)
Other
Current Assets
5 Yrs.
-2.5%
---2.5%
113.5
98.2
100.0
88.7
Full
Year
LIABILITIES ($mill.)
Accts Payable
24.0
19.8
27.8
Debt Due
43.6
8.3
10.5
27.1
31.5
26.3
.04
.07
d.05
.03
.09 Other
94.7
59.6
64.6
-.05
d.08
d1.47 d1.50 Current Liab
-.09
d.03
.08
.14
.09
.09
.00
.10
LONG-TERM DEBT AND EQUITY
as of 5/ 1/10
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID Full
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
Year Total Debt $12.0 mill.
Due in 5 Yrs. NA
LT Debt $1.5 mill.
-----Including Cap. Leases NA
-----(1% of Capl)
-----Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals NA
--Pension Liability None in 09 vs. $3.2 mill. in 08
INSTITUTIONAL DECISIONS
Pfd Stock None
Pfd Divd Paid None
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
EARNINGS PER SHARE
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
to Buy
to Sell
Hlds(000)
54
-35613
26
29
36024
Full
Year
32
24
35407
3 Mos.
6 Mos.
1 Yr.
3 Yrs.
5 Yrs.
-11.40%
46.78%
56.16%
-66.14%
-53.21%
2010 Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
1
3
4
RECENT
PRICE
19.5 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: NMF) P/E RATIO 1.11 YLD
32.71 P/ERATIO 17.7(Trailing:
High:
Low:
Raised 5/28/10
43.7
15.8
57.8
26.8
48.0
13.3
28.1
7.0
31.5
9.4
Nil
37.6
26.2
LEGENDS
12.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
Latest recession began 12/07
New 5/7/10
Lowered 8/6/10
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
VALUE
LINE
128
96
80
64
48
40
32
24
Annl Total
Price
Gain
Return
High
65 (+100%) 18%
Low
45 (+40%)
8%
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell
S
0
0
0
O
0
0
0
N
0
1
2
D
0
1
2
J
0
0
0
F
0
0
0
M
0
1
4
A
0
0
2
M
0
0
0
16
12
% TOT. RETURN 6/10
Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
58
to Buy
to Sell
58
Hlds(000) 15034
4Q2009
43
52
14992
1Q2010
47
49
14653
Percent
shares
traded
60
40
20
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
----------
----------
----------
----------
----------
----------
5/1/10
113.4
-95.7
14.1
223.2
61.3
-25.0
86.3
Full
Fiscal
Year
437.5
488.2
551.9
665
770
Full
Fiscal
Year
1.00
1.22
1.36
1.85
2.15
Full
Year
----------
----------
----------
----------
----------
22.27
1.56
1.08
-6.44
13.01
26.4
1.41
--
27.66
2.15
1.51
-8.56
13.81
26.5
1.43
--
31.03
1.90
1.00
-9.80
14.10
29.5
1.57
--
34.15
2.35
1.22
-11.07
14.30
14.2
.85
--
37.14
2.56
1.36
-12.20
14.86
17.8
1.17
--
---------------
---------------
---------------
---------------
203.4
39.8%
8.6%
214
7.3
38.5%
3.6%
14.3
2.2
27.8
25.4%
26.2%
24.8%
--
289.8
40.4%
9.4%
235
14.2
34.7%
4.9%
62.6
.5
83.7
17.1%
17.0%
17.0%
--
381.9
40.5%
10.1%
277
21.4
33.2%
5.6%
88.3
3.0
118.2
17.8%
18.1%
18.1%
--
437.5
36.3%
7.1%
319
14.2
31.0%
3.2%
89.5
1.4
138.1
10.4%
10.3%
10.3%
--
488.2
38.2%
8.1%
357
17.4
31.2%
3.6%
60.0
-158.2
11.0%
11.0%
11.0%
--
551.9
38.5%
8.5%
403
19.7
31.5%
3.6%
123.2
-181.3
10.9%
10.9%
10.9%
--
44.35
3.05
1.85
Nil
14.35
15.00
45.30
3.50
2.15
Nil
15.00
17.00
665
39.0%
9.0%
450
28.0
31.5%
4.2%
170
Nil
215
13.0%
13.0%
13.0%
Nil
770
39.3%
9.2%
520
37.0
31.5%
4.8%
195
Nil
255
14.5%
14.5%
14.5%
Nil
THIS
STOCK
VL ARITH.
INDEX
27.3
-13.2
82.2
29.6
-8.6
24.0
13-15
Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per shB
Divds Decld per sh
Book Value per sh
Common Shs OutstgC
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield
51.25
4.65
2.80
Nil
21.25
20.00
20.0
1.35
Nil
Sales ($mill)A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
1025
41.0%
10.0%
600
56.0
32.0%
5.5%
310
Nil
425
13.0%
13.0%
13.0%
Nil
(A) Fiscal years end January 31st of the follow- (B) Next earnings report due late August.
ing calendar year. Figures may not sum due to
rounding
(C) In millions.
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
B+
10
35
75
2
3
4
High:
Low:
Raised 8/6/10
RECENT
PRICE
4.9
3.1
7.6
3.4
7.8
4.8
8.8
5.5
14.2 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 14.0) P/E RATIO 0.71 YLD
24.11 P/ERATIO 11.3(Trailing:
7.9
6.1
9.7
7.3
19.6
8.3
LEGENDS
9.5 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Lowered 6/4/10
2-for-1 split 6/02
BETA 1.15 (1.00 = Market)
2-for-1 split 4/06
Options: Yes
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
Shaded area: prior recession
Annl Total Latest recession began 12/07
to Buy
Options
to Sell
O
0
0
0
N
0
1
1
24.7
12.1
17.9
6.2
23.6
7.5
30.6
22.7
D
0
0
0
J
0
0
0
F
0
0
0
M
0
0
1
A
0
0
0
64
48
40
32
24
20
16
12
2-for-1
2-for-1
M
0
1
1
8
6
% TOT. RETURN 6/10
Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
78
to Buy
to Sell
104
Hlds(000) 60931
4Q2009
105
128
69204
1Q2010
99
119
65122
Percent
shares
traded
24
16
8
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
5.15
.33
.20
-1.79
88.89
15.6
1.02
--
5.61
.36
.21
-2.00
89.26
12.1
.81
--
5.71
.38
.21
-2.21
90.27
12.0
.75
--
6.10
.53
.34
-2.56
90.97
11.1
.64
--
6.55
.63
.43
-2.91
91.36
15.4
.80
--
7.72
.71
.38
-3.18
79.75
10.0
.57
--
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Ends
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015
New 7/27/90
Price
Gain
Return
High
55 (+130%) 23%
Low
35 (+45%) 10%
Insider Decisions
S
0
0
0
28.1
16.9
Nil
4/24/10
347.3
-264.0
59.4
670.7
152.2
1.4
182.2
335.8
Full
Fiscal
Year
1426.6
1444.2
1494.2
2310
2710
Full
Fiscal
Year
1.45
1.15
1.11
1.70
2.20
Full
Year
9.12
.80
.47
-3.61
71.94
9.3
.60
--
9.53
.81
.47
-4.07
72.95
13.0
.67
--
9.82
.84
.51
-4.58
73.02
13.2
.72
--
12.12
.85
.45
-3.89
58.34
15.4
.88
--
656.2
36.1%
10.9%
689
36.7
36.5%
5.6%
159.1
-259.6
14.2%
14.2%
14.2%
--
695.0
36.2%
10.2%
720
35.3
36.5%
5.1%
197.2
-296.6
11.9%
11.9%
11.9%
--
717.1
36.8%
10.8%
754
37.9
36.0%
5.3%
231.0
-334.3
11.4%
11.4%
11.4%
--
707.1
35.9%
8.7%
772
28.5
36.0%
4.0%
107.8
33.0
226.9
11.0%
12.6%
12.6%
--
12.74
.92
.50
-4.42
59.24
15.5
.82
--
16.56
1.15
.57
-5.18
60.41
16.2
.86
--
21.07
1.95
1.15
-6.63
61.72
16.7
.90
--
23.12
2.38
1.45
-8.26
61.69
14.7
.78
--
THIS
STOCK
VL ARITH.
INDEX
66.5
16.0
110.4
29.6
-8.6
24.0
24.81
1.96
1.11
-10.39
60.24
11.1
.73
--
28.90
2.60
1.70
-13.05
80.00
13.5
.80
--
33.90
3.25
2.20
Nil
15.25
80.00
Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh AB
Divds Decld per sh
Book Value per sh D
Common Shs Outstg
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield
1444.2 1494.2
38.7% 38.5%
11.1% 10.3%
1503
1559
74.1
69.7
36.2% 34.7%
5.1%
4.7%
100.3 204.5
27.3
26.1
556.1 626.1
12.8% 10.8%
13.3% 11.1%
13.3% 11.1%
---
2310
41.0%
10.5%
2490
130
39.0%
5.6%
220
25.0
1045
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
--
2710
42.0%
11.5%
2530
175
39.5%
6.5%
250
25.0
1220
14.0%
14.5%
14.5%
Nil
Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
23.93
2.03
1.15
-9.21
60.36
12.4
.75
--
13-15
43.15
4.30
3.00
Nil
23.15
80.00
15.0
1.00
Nil
3450
42.5%
13.0%
2800
240
39.0%
7.0%
300
30.0
1850
13.0%
13.0%
13.0%
Nil
Bought Tween Brands (operates 884 Justice stores for 7-14 yearold girls), in 11/09. Has 14,100 employees including 8,600 part
timers. Officers and directors own 23.3% of common stock; four
funds own 29.5% (11/09 proxy). Chrmn: Elliot S. Jaffe. Pres. &
CEO: David R. Jaffe. Inc.: CT. Address: 30 Dunnigan Drive, Suffern, NY 10901. Tel.: 845-369-4500. Internet: www.dressbarn.com.
A
45
75
70
3
2
3
High:
Low:
Lowered 7/23/10
52.7
30.8
RECENT
PRICE
53.8
18.5
35.0
11.1
17.1
8.4
10.6 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 18.0) P/E RATIO 0.63 YLD 2.3%
18.29 P/ERATIO 10.0(Trailing:
23.5
12.0
25.7
18.1
22.7
15.9
21.4
15.9
22.0
15.2
21.9
9.4
23.4
9.6
26.3
17.8
LEGENDS
9.5 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Raised 7/23/10
3-for-2 split 12/97
BETA 1.00 (1.00 = Market)
3-for-2 split 12/98
3-for-2 split 6/99
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
Options: Yes
Annl Total Shaded area: prior recession
Price
Gain
Return Latest recession began 12/07
Raised 2/6/09
High
40 (+120%)
Low
30 (+65%)
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell
S
0
2
5
O
0
3
2
N
0
2
1
D
0
0
1
J
0
1
1
F
0
0
2
VALUE
LINE
64
48
40
32
24
20
16
12
24%
15%
M
0
2
5
A
0
3
2
M
0
0
1
8
6
% TOT. RETURN 6/10
Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
233
217
170
to Buy
to Sell
207
228
260
Hlds(000) 454825 441499 425984
Percent
shares
traded
24
16
8
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
3.81
4.53
5.70
7.36 10.55 13.68 16.01 16.00 16.29 17.67 18.90 18.70 19.59 21.48
.50
.57
.72
.91
1.34
1.84
1.72
1.09
1.42
1.89
2.06
2.03
1.61
1.93
.33
.36
.47
.58
.91
1.26
1.00
.15
.54
1.09
1.21
1.24
.93
1.09
.07
.07
.09
.09
.09
.09
.09
.09
.09
.09
.09
.18
.32
.32
1.41
1.69
1.79
1.79
1.83
2.63
3.43
3.48
4.12
5.33
5.74
6.33
6.36
5.82
977.16 971.15 926.50 884.55 857.96 850.50 854.00 865.73 887.32 897.20 860.56 856.99 813.87 734.00
17.9
15.0
19.0
22.3
29.2
33.5
32.5
NMF
25.2
16.7
17.7
15.8
19.8
17.2
1.17
1.00
1.19
1.29
1.52
1.91
2.11
NMF
1.38
.95
.94
.84
1.07
.91
1.2%
1.3%
1.0%
.7%
.3%
.2%
.3%
.4%
.7%
.5%
.4%
.9%
1.7%
1.7%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10
Total Debt None
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $1.0 bill.
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Pfd Stock None
Common Stock 650,593,000 shs.
as of 6/4/10
MARKET CAP: $11.9 billion (Large Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
1756
2591
Receivables
--Inventory (FIFO)
1506
1477
Other
743
596
Current Assets
4005
4664
Accts Payable
975
1027
Debt Due
50
-Other
1133
1104
Current Liab.
2158
2131
5/1/10
2498
-1534
632
4664
1052
-1039
2091
15854
41.8%
16.0%
3022
1030.0
38.8%
6.5%
4197.0
2487.0
4783.0
15.6%
21.5%
19.9%
8%
THIS
STOCK
VL ARITH.
INDEX
20.8
7.9
7.2
29.6
-8.6
24.0
13-15
Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh B
Divds Decld per sh C
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg D
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield
28.50
3.75
2.65
.55
11.60
570.00
13.5
.90
1.3%
14526 14197
41.4% 44.4%
14.6% 16.8%
3149
3095
967.0 1102.0
39.0% 39.3%
6.7%
7.8%
1847.0 2533.0
50.0
-4387.0 4891.0
22.1% 22.5%
22.0% 22.5%
16.5% 17.7%
25%
21%
Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
16250
45.1%
17.8%
3100
1540
39.0%
9.5%
3300
Nil
6600
23.5%
23.5%
18.5%
21%
14600
44.6%
17.1%
3055
1215
39.0%
8.3%
2500
Nil
4885
25.0%
25.0%
19.5%
22%
14950
44.8%
17.4%
3040
1300
39.0%
8.7%
2600
Nil
5050
25.5%
25.5%
20.0%
22%
Republic, and Old Navy have Internet sites. All merchandise is private label. Foreign sales were 18% of 09 total. Has about 134,000
employees. Fisher family owns about 35.0% of stock. Other officers
and directors, less than 1% (March 2010 proxy). Chairman & CEO.
Glenn Murphy. Inc.: Delaware. Addr.: Two Folsom St., San Francisco, CA 94105. Telephone: 650-952-4400. Internet: www.gap.com.
strength is the companys strategy of selling its goods through a number of chains
The Gap, Gap Kids, Banana Republic, and
Old Navythat cater to different age and
income groups. Too, The Gap is extending
its store network in Europe and Asia. The
major wild card is consumer discretionary
spending, which is beyond its control.
The share count has decreased 24%
since the close of fiscal 2005. Part of
the funds for these stock purchases came
from cash assets, which stood at $2.6 billion at May 1st. Net of budgeted capital
expenditures of about $400 million and
probable divided payments, this years estimated cash flow is about $1.2 billion.
Much of the capital budget is earmarked
for an accelerated store-renovation program in the United States. Domestic store
closings this year are slated to exceed additions in foreign markets.
This neutrally ranked stock offers attractive appreciation potential for the
pull to 20132015, following a share-price
decline of about 25% over the past three
months. A relatively high Earnings Predictability score is another plus.
David R. Cohen
August 6, 2010
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
A+
75
20
80
5
3
2
High:
Low:
Lowered 7/2/10
6.0
1.3
RECENT
PRICE
9.6
3.3
17.0
7.1
LEGENDS
7.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Lowered 8/6/10
2-for-1 split 12/99
BETA .70 (1.00 = Market)
2-for-1 split 12/00
3-for-2 split 2/02
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
3-for-2 split 9/03
Annl Total Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
Price
Gain
Return
Latest recession began 12/07
High
15 (+165%) 30%
S
0
0
0
O
0
1
1
N
0
0
0
31.4
13.6
32.3
13.9
23.5
13.3
15.6
9.4
14.0
5.4
9.4
3.9
13.9
5.3
10.0
4.7
D
0
0
0
J
0
0
0
F
0
0
0
3-for-2
40
32
24
3-for-2
16
12
10
8
6
19%
M
0
0
0
A
0
5
0
M
0
0
0
4
% TOT. RETURN 6/10
Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
55
to Buy
to Sell
86
Hlds(000) 44339
4Q2009
72
70
43846
VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015
Raised 5/8/09
Low
10 (+75%)
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell
18.8
9.9
28.2 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 23.0) P/E RATIO 1.78 YLD 5.0%
5.65 P/ERATIO 28.3(Trailing:
1Q2010
62
67
38990
Percent
shares
traded
90
60
30
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
THIS
STOCK
VL ARITH.
INDEX
-29.9
-52.9
-73.2
29.6
-8.6
24.0
Hot Topic opened its first store in 1989. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 VALUE LINE PUB., INC. 13-15
On September 23, 1996, an initial public of- 5.63 7.14 9.47 11.89 14.72 16.49 16.99 16.66 17.32 16.62 16.10 16.55 Sales per sh A
19.55
fering of 7,800,000 shares were sold at the
.70
.84
1.07
1.39
1.44
1.25
1.19
1.32
1.32
1.13
1.10
1.25 Cash Flowper sh
1.75
price of $3.00 a share (adjusted for splits).
.48
.57
.70
.97
.83
.49
.30
.36
.45
.27
.20
.30 Earnings per sh AB
.70
Montgomery Securities and Robertson,
--------.28
--.21
.28 Divds Decld per sh D
Stephens & Company were the main un- 2.17 2.88 3.44 4.65 4.21 4.57 5.01 5.38
5.88
6.25
5.10
5.10 Book Value per sh
6.10
derwriters.
45.66 47.06 46.81 48.12 44.59 43.98 44.23 43.70 43.95 44.34 45.00 45.00 Common Shs Outstg C
45.00
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
68.8
-78.7
23.9
171.4
24.4
-33.3
57.7
22.7
1.16
--
21.1
1.15
--
22.2
1.27
--
24.4
1.29
--
36.1
1.92
--
41.7
2.25
--
24.7
1.31
--
13.9
.84
--
29.5
1.97
--
257.2
43.4%
17.0%
274
23.3
37.0%
9.0%
61.2
1.4
99.3
23.1%
23.4%
23.4%
--
336.1
42.3%
16.4%
352
28.6
37.9%
8.5%
82.4
.2
135.4
21.1%
21.1%
21.1%
--
443.3
41.8%
15.7%
445
34.6
38.0%
7.8%
90.4
.1
160.9
21.5%
21.5%
21.5%
--
572.0
41.8%
16.7%
554
48.0
38.3%
8.4%
141.9
-223.9
21.5%
21.5%
21.5%
--
656.5
39.4%
13.4%
668
39.7
38.3%
6.0%
87.3
-187.6
21.2%
21.2%
21.2%
--
725.1
37.0%
8.9%
783
22.4
38.1%
3.1%
70.6
-201.1
11.2%
11.2%
11.2%
--
751.6
38.3%
8.1%
825
13.6
40.8%
1.8%
91.3
-221.5
6.2%
6.2%
6.2%
--
728.1
40.2%
9.0%
841
16.0
39.0%
2.2%
97.8
-235.2
6.8%
6.8%
6.8%
--
761.1
40.9%
9.1%
840
19.7
39.2%
2.6%
125.6
-258.4
7.6%
7.6%
7.6%
--
736.7
40.0%
7.8%
836
11.9
39.9%
1.6%
158.5
-277.1
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
--
725
39.5%
7.5%
830
9.0
40.0%
1.2%
115
Nil
230
4.0%
4.0%
NMF
106%
Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
745
40.0%
8.5%
840
13.5
40.0%
1.8%
105
Nil
230
6.0%
6.0%
.5%
93%
18.0
1.20
2.2%
880
41.5%
11.0%
870
32.0
40.0%
3.6%
110
Nil
275
11.5%
11.5%
7.0%
39%
through its website. Hot Topic stores average approx. 1,760 sq. ft.;
Torrid, 2,500 sq. ft. Has abt 9,300 empls. (incl. 2,500 full-time).
Chrmn.: Bruce Quinnell. CEO: Elizabeth McLaughlin. Insiders own
8.0% of common stock; FMR LLC, 12.9%; BlackRock, 8.5% (4/10
proxy). Inc.: CA. Addr.: 18305 E. San Jose Ave., City of Industry,
CA 91748. Tel.: 626-839-4681. Internet: www.hottopic.com.
audience, without alienating the core customer. It now offers a wider selection of
music genres and related products that appeal to a larger teen base, as opposed to offering only its traditional music types (i.e.,
alternative rock, punk).
We still expect Torrid and ShockHound to be instrumental to profit
growth going forward. The former has
good expansion potential, given the underserved niche that it targets plus-sized
girls. ShockHound also presents growth
opportunities. The Web site, which features millions of MP3s and other exclusive
content, and enables fans and established/emerging artists to network, has
been a hit so far. Despite development
costs of about $0.07 per share a year, the
online initiative should contribute to profits in time. HOTT continues to seek out
partnerships with high-traffic sites.
At this juncture, total return potential
is enticing here, based on a dividend
well-covered by cash flow and on the earnings advances we envision three to five
years from now, though a turnaround in
the business is far from certain.
J. Susan Ferrara
August 6, 2010
5/1/10
14.4
.94
--
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
B
30
20
60
3
3
4
RECENT
PRICE
15.9 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: NMF) P/E RATIO 0.92 YLD
35.69 P/ERATIO 14.6(Trailing:
High:
Low:
Lowered 8/6/10
43.6
24.0
57.2
33.5
50.3
8.0
46.6
8.6
Nil
51.0
32.2
LEGENDS
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
Latest recession began 12/07
New 2/9/07
Raised 7/30/10
VALUE
LINE
128
96
80
64
48
40
32
24
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
Annl Total
Price
Gain
Return
High
80 (+125%) 22%
Low
50 (+40%)
9%
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell
S
0
3
5
O
0
1
1
N
1
0
0
D
1
2
2
J
0
0
0
F
0
0
0
M
1
0
0
A
0
0
1
M
0
0
0
16
12
% TOT. RETURN 6/10
Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
128
to Buy
to Sell
66
Hlds(000) 67980
4Q2009
143
94
65179
1Q2010
121
125
64113
Percent
shares
traded
30
20
10
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
J. Crew was founded in New York in 1983. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
It recapitalized in 1997 when the private
---- - 60.89 35.94 19.65 21.68 22.84 24.74 27.20 29.60
equity firm Texas Pacific Group purchased a
---- - d4.79
1.40
1.58
2.13
1.59
2.75
3.20
3.35
majority stake in the retailer. The company
---- - d7.60
d.39
1.05
1.52
.87
1.91
2.45
2.70
reincorporated in Delaware in 2005, and
----------Nil
Nil
held an initial public offering in June 2006. It
---- - d44.05 d22.16
.10
2.28
3.60
5.89
8.00 10.00
sold 21.6 million shares at a price of $20 per
---- - 13.21 26.52 58.65 61.57 62.53 63.78 64.50 65.00
share, and received net proceeds of $402.8
------18.3
28.8
34.1
15.0 Bold figures are
Value Line
million. Goldman Sachs and Bear Stearns
------.99
1.53
2.05
1.00
estimates
acted as lead underwriters for the offering.
----------CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10
Total Debt $49.2 mill. Due in 5 Yrs $49.2
LT Debt $49.2 mill.
LT Interest $3.0 mill.
(LT interest earned: 41.6x; total interest coverage:
37.2x)
(10% of Capl)
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $92.0 mill.
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Pfd Stock None
Common Stock 63,822,629 shs.
as of 5/14/10
MARKET CAP: $2.3 billion (Mid Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
146.4
298.1
Receivables
--Inventory (avg. cost) 187.0
190.2
Other
58.1
31.0
Current Assets
391.5
519.3
Accts Payable
119.7
127.7
Debt Due
.8
-Other
88.0
107.6
Current Liab.
208.5
235.3
ANNUAL RATES Past
of change (per sh)
10 Yrs.
Sales
-Cash Flow
-Earnings
-Dividends
-Book Value
-Fiscal
Year
Begins
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
5/1/10
332.3
-193.1
27.6
553.0
105.4
-109.4
214.8
Full
QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.) A
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
297.3 304.7 332.8 399.9 1334.7
340.6 336.3 363.1 388.0 1428.0
345.8 357.5 414.1 460.6 1578.0
413.9 401.1 445
495
1755
450
435
495
545
1925
Full
EARNINGS PER SHARE A B
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
.39
.32
.42
.39
1.52
.48
.28
.30
d.19
.87
.32
.29
.67
.61
1.91
.68
.44
.71
.62
2.45
.70
.50
.80
.70
2.70
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID
Full
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year
NO CASH DIVIDENDS
BEING PAID
(A) Fiscal year ends Saturday closest to January 31st of the following year.
(B) Diluted earnings. Results prior to 6/06 IPO
are pro forma. Next earnings report due late
---------------
---------------
---------------
1428.0 1578.0
42.0% 47.4%
9.9% 16.7%
300
321
55.3 123.4
39.1% 40.1%
3.9%
7.8%
183.0 284.0
99.2
49.2
224.9 375.9
18.0% 29.6%
24.6% 32.8%
24.6% 32.8%
---
1755
47.7%
17.5%
336
160
40.0%
9.1%
300
35.0
515
29.0%
31.0%
31.0%
Nil
1925
47.7%
17.5%
365
175
40.0%
9.1%
300
20.0
650
27.0%
27.5%
27.5%
Nil
THIS
STOCK
VL ARITH.
INDEX
36.2
-31.9
29.6
-8.6
24.0
13-15
Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh A B
Divds Decld per sh
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg C
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield
37.50
3.70
3.25
Nil
15.15
66.00
20.0
1.35
Nil
Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
2475
46.5%
15.5%
450
215
40.0%
8.7%
400
50.0
1000
20.5%
21.5%
21.5%
Nil
womens wear stores that operate under the Madewell label. Has
about 12,000 employees. Officers & directors own 13.6% of common stock; five financial institutions combined, 40.3% (4/10 Proxy).
Chairman & CEO: Millard Drexler. Incorporated: Delaware. Address: 770 Broadway, New York, New York 10003. Telephone:
212-209-2500. Internet: www.jcrew.com.
J. Crew started fiscal 2010 (ends January 29, 2011) on a high note. Share net
in the April period more than doubled over
the depressed fiscal 2009 tally. Revenue
jumped 20% while comparable-store sales
were up 15% and margins expanded.
The remainder of the fiscal year
ought to be strong, as well. Comparisons grow more difficult as the year
progresses, so the pace of earnings growth
will likely slow from the recent breakneck
speed. Nonetheless, we still expect the bottom line to expand at a healthy pace this
year. Inventory has been well managed
(JCG entered the July period with inventory down 4% year to year on a persquare-foot basis) and the companys design team continues to churn out compelling merchandise. This combination has resulted in wider margins thanks to reduced
markdowns and more items moving at full
price. Meanwhile, strong brand momentum and innovative product, including
numerous design collaborations with classic brands (Alden, Levis, Ray-Ban, etc.)
should
drive
comps.
Additionally,
Madewell is beginning to come into its own
and now has its own e-commerce site,
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
B++
20
NMF
NMF
1
3
3
RECENT
PRICE
High:
Low:
Raised 5/7/10
2.6
0.6
1.8
0.9
2.6
1.2
7.8
1.9
14.8 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 12.0) P/E RATIO 0.84 YLD
40.11 P/ERATIO 13.4(Trailing:
15.5
5.2
LEGENDS
9.5 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Lowered 5/14/10
3-for-2 split 2/04
BETA 1.15 (1.00 = Market)
5-for-4 split 8/04
5-for-4 split 2/06
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
3-for-2 split 8/10
Annl Total Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
Price
Gain
Return
Latest recession began 12/07
High
60 (+50%) 11%
to Buy
Options
to Sell
O
0
0
0
N
0
0
0
27.1
14.1
32.1
14.8
30.8
16.4
27.8
10.3
32.6
13.1
43.7
26.3
D
0
1
1
J
0
0
0
F
0
0
0
A
2
0
0
128
96
80
64
48
40
32
24
3-for-2
5-for-4
3-for-1
Nil
M
0
0
0
5-for-4
M
0
0
0
16
12
% TOT. RETURN 6/10
Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
87
to Buy
to Sell
99
Hlds(000) 29621
4Q2009
79
100
28758
1Q2010
75
98
29535
Percent
shares
traded
90
60
30
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
----------
7.10
d.36
d.55
-1.48
23.87
----
6.49
.17
.01
-1.50
23.88
NMF
NMF
--
7.21
.25
.10
-1.52
23.88
13.1
.76
--
7.84
.42
.24
-1.77
23.88
8.7
.45
--
8.06
.31
.14
-1.82
24.01
10.7
.61
--
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015
New 5/9/08
Low
40
(Nil)
Insider Decisions
S
0
0
2
17.8
9.9
Nil
5/1/10
186.3
15.5
213.4
25.1
440.3
30.7
-74.7
105.4
Full
Fiscal
Year
604.0
695.9
770.3
845
935
Full
Fiscal
Year
1.81
2.11
2.56
3.00
3.40
Full
Year
9.85
.44
.23
-2.18
20.94
5.4
.35
--
10.07
.55
.30
-2.49
20.96
6.0
.31
--
11.17
.76
.44
-3.01
21.79
11.7
.64
--
12.12
.98
.64
-3.54
24.72
15.7
.90
--
14.76
1.39
.92
-4.53
25.24
15.7
.83
--
17.92
1.86
1.30
-5.93
25.93
16.3
.87
--
20.19
2.18
1.57
-7.70
27.06
14.1
.76
--
22.15
2.52
1.81
-9.58
27.27
12.1
.64
--
25.36
2.88
2.11
-11.73
27.44
8.1
.49
--
27.98
3.40
2.56
-14.29
27.53
9.8
.65
--
206.3
51.2%
6.4%
117
5.0
37.5%
2.4%
28.6
6.4
45.7
10.7%
11.0%
11.0%
--
211.0
54.2%
7.9%
137
6.5
36.0%
3.1%
37.8
15.9
52.3
10.6%
12.5%
12.5%
--
243.4
57.2%
10.4%
174
10.9
41.3%
4.5%
41.5
9.3
65.6
15.3%
16.7%
16.7%
--
299.7
60.0%
12.7%
214
16.6
42.5%
5.5%
72.2
28.6
87.5
15.0%
19.0%
19.0%
--
372.5
63.2%
14.1%
269
24.5
39.3%
6.6%
68.1
5.9
114.3
21.1%
21.4%
21.4%
--
464.6
64.7%
16.1%
324
35.3
41.3%
7.6%
96.2
4.8
153.8
22.8%
22.9%
22.9%
--
546.4
64.8%
16.3%
388
43.2
40.1%
7.9%
136.6
.4
208.2
20.9%
20.8%
20.8%
--
604.0
65.7%
16.8%
422
50.2
40.5%
8.3%
187.2
-261.2
19.2%
19.2%
19.2%
--
695.9
64.9%
16.7%
460
58.4
39.1%
8.4%
246.1
-321.8
18.1%
18.1%
18.1%
--
770.3
64.2%
18.1%
473
71.2
39.4%
9.2%
323.3
-393.3
18.1%
18.1%
18.1%
--
30.60
3.80
3.00
Nil
17.40
27.60
33.70
4.25
3.40
Nil
20.90
27.75
845
65.0%
19.0%
510
83.5
39.5%
9.9%
405
Nil
480
17.5%
17.5%
17.5%
Nil
935
65.0%
19.5%
540
95.5
40.0%
10.2%
500
Nil
580
16.5%
16.5%
16.5%
Nil
THIS
STOCK
VL ARITH.
INDEX
56.7
30.2
55.9
29.6
-8.6
24.0
Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh AB
Divds Decld per sh
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield
Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
13-15
41.95
5.20
4.25
Nil
33.20
28.00
12.0
.80
Nil
1175
65.0%
19.5%
630
120
40.0%
10.2%
785
Nil
930
13.0%
13.0%
13.0%
Nil
(A) Fiscal year ends Saturday closest to Janu- (B) Diluted. Excludes gain/(loss) from non- (C) In millions, adjusted for stock splits.
ary 31st of the following year.
recurring charges: 99, ($0.20). Excludes
gain/(loss) from disc. operations: 98, ($0.01).
Next earnings report due early September.
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
B++
25
80
95
2
3
4
High:
Low:
Raised 10/23/09
New 7/27/90
Lowered 8/6/10
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
Annl Total
Price
Gain
Return
High
45 (+75%) 17%
Low
30 (+20%)
7%
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell
S
0
0
0
O
0
0
0
N
0
0
0
D
0
0
0
J
0
3
0
F
0
0
1
M
0
0
1
A
0
0
0
25.3
13.8
RECENT
PRICE
27.9
14.4
21.3
9.0
22.3
12.5
15.0 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 17.0) P/E RATIO 0.86 YLD 2.4%
25.43 P/ERATIO 13.7(Trailing:
18.5
10.9
27.9
17.3
25.5
18.8
32.6
21.6
30.0
16.5
22.2
6.9
20.1
6.0
28.8
18.3
LEGENDS
10.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
2-for-1 split 5/00
Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
Latest recession began 12/07
64
48
40
32
24
20
16
12
M
0
0
0
8
6
% TOT. RETURN 6/10
Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
118
152
171
to Buy
to Sell
173
148
164
Hlds(000) 240572 250808 241812
Percent
shares
traded
18
12
6
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
10.24 11.09 15.95 16.84 20.63 21.85 23.63 21.83 16.15 17.25 23.12 24.55 26.81 29.29
1.00
.84
1.17
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.65
1.53
1.51
1.67
2.39
2.17
2.49
3.09
.63
.44
.55
.62
.70
.97
.97
.87
.98
1.06
1.35
1.29
1.68
1.89
.18
.20
.20
.24
.26
.30
.30
.30
.30
.40
.48
.60
.60
.60
3.86
4.50
3.55
3.75
4.93
4.83
5.42
6.40
9.29 10.17
5.74
6.26
7.42
6.41
715.21 710.73 542.14 545.60 453.14 444.94 427.60 429.00 523.00 518.00 407.00 395.00 398.00 346.00
15.2
22.2
17.3
17.5
20.7
21.4
21.6
17.4
17.2
14.8
15.7
17.3
15.9
12.5
1.00
1.49
1.08
1.01
1.08
1.22
1.40
.89
.94
.84
.83
.92
.86
.66
1.9%
2.1%
2.1%
2.2%
1.8%
1.5%
1.4%
2.0%
1.8%
2.6%
2.3%
2.7%
2.3%
2.5%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10
Total Debt $2523.0 mill. Due in 5 Yrs $893.0 mill
LT Debt $2523.0 mill.
VALUE
LINE
5/1/10
1188
199
1098
202
2687
485
-650
1135
9408.0
39.4%
14.5%
3779
638.0
36.7%
6.8%
1233.0
1646.0
2335.0
16.8%
27.3%
17.5%
36%
THIS
STOCK
VL ARITH.
INDEX
83.9
-12.7
17.3
29.6
-8.6
24.0
13-15
Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh AB
Divds Decld per sh C
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg D
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield
31.45
3.60
2.40
.68
11.45
315.00
16.0
1.05
1.8%
9043.0
37.0%
11.5%
3014
220.0
51.4%
2.4%
1612.0
2897.0
1874.0
6.5%
11.7%
1.0%
91%
Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
9900
41.0%
17.0%
3150
750
39.0%
7.6%
2000
2000
3600
15.0%
21.0%
15.0%
29%
8632.0
39.2%
14.1%
2971
448.0
31.1%
5.2%
1928.0
2723.0
2183.0
11.6%
20.5%
11.7%
43%
9100
41.0%
16.0%
2950
610
38.5%
6.7%
1600
2500
2125
15.5%
28.5%
19.5%
32%
9300
41.0%
17.0%
2975
650
38.0%
7.0%
1950
2500
2580
15.0%
25.0%
17.5%
30%
BUSINESS: Limited Brands is one of the largest companies specializing in mens and womens apparel, lingerie, and personal care
products. It operates approx. 3,000 stores under the names Victorias Secret, Bath & Body Works, Pink, La Senza, C.O. Bigelow,
White Barn Candle Co., and Henri Bendel. Also sells lingerie, swimwear, apparel, and shoes via the Victorias Secret Catalogue. Acqd
(A) Fiscal year ends Saturday nearest to January 31 of following year. (B) Primary egs. thru
96, diluted thereafter. Based on GAAP. Excludes nonrecurring gains (loss): 95, $0.91;
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
B
50
45
45
4
3
2
High:
Low:
Raised 4/2/10
23.3
13.0
22.7
11.5
RECENT
PRICE
22.0
11.3
19.1
6.4
19.6 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 16.0) P/E RATIO 0.93 YLD 2.0%
19.96 P/ERATIO 14.8(Trailing:
20.8
7.8
23.0
14.3
LEGENDS
10.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Raised 7/30/10
3-for-2 split 6/98
BETA 1.10 (1.00 = Market)
3-for-2 split 6/05
Options: Yes
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
Shaded area: prior recession
Annl Total Latest recession began 12/07
37.4
20.1
41.8
28.8
56.6
26.8
27.7
8.3
27.7
9.4
27.4
17.7
VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015
Raised 11/17/00
80
60
50
40
30
25
20
15
3-for-2
Price
Gain
Return
High
45 (+125%) 24%
Low
30 (+50%) 12%
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell
S
0
2
6
O
0
0
2
N
0
0
1
D
0
1
2
J
0
0
1
F
0
0
1
M
0
0
2
A
0
0
1
M
0
0
1
Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
86
to Buy
to Sell
74
Hlds(000) 53158
4Q2009
85
80
53470
1Q2010
69
86
56325
Percent
shares
traded
30
20
10
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
7.42
.45
.28
-1.99
42.72
25.6
1.68
--
8.67
.55
.36
-2.92
46.84
25.2
1.69
--
10.27
.72
.44
-3.38
47.07
26.5
1.66
--
12.71
.92
.60
-4.43
49.67
24.6
1.42
--
14.69
1.20
.78
-5.70
52.29
23.2
1.21
--
18.89
1.55
1.05
-6.51
62.83
16.3
.93
--
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Begins
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
5/1/10
219.6
24.6
435.4
68.8
748.4
99.7
45.8
139.0
284.5
Full
QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.) A
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
496.1 569.4 512.1 535.0 2112.6
491.1 545.3 459.7 476.3 1972.4
464.2 526.2 462.0 457.2 1909.6
473.5 541.5 460
475
1950
480
565
465
470
1980
Full
EARNINGS PER SHARE A B
Fiscal
Apr.Per Jul.Per Oct.Per Jan.Per Year
.75
1.00
.69
.29
2.73
.19
.63
.28
.03
1.13
.10
.75
.37
d.36
.86
.26
.78
.39 d.08
1.35
.28
.82
.41 d.01
1.50
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAIDC
Full
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year
.05
.05
.05
.05
.20
.05
.06
.06
.06
.23
.07
.07
.07
.07
.28
.07
.07
.07
.07
.28
.09
.09
(A) Fiscal year ends Saturday closest to January 31st of following calendar year.
(B) Primary earnings thru 1996; diluted earnings thereafter. Excl. nonrecurring gains &
21.05
1.88
1.33
-7.81
63.35
12.9
.84
--
20.70
1.39
.69
-8.29
61.51
22.7
1.16
--
21.83
1.46
.69
-8.97
59.32
19.3
1.05
--
25.72
1.81
.85
-9.11
54.15
17.7
1.01
--
28.46
2.29
1.29
-10.47
54.35
14.6
.77
--
32.50
3.30
2.04
.05
11.83
53.07
14.5
.77
.2%
34.91
3.89
2.71
.20
13.98
53.92
13.3
.72
.6%
41.04
4.42
2.73
.25
15.85
51.48
16.0
.85
.6%
37.99
2.88
1.13
.28
16.22
51.92
17.0
1.02
1.5%
36.43
2.51
.86
.28
17.22
52.41
22.8
1.52
1.4%
37.15
2.80
1.35
.36
18.30
52.50
37.70
3.00
1.50
.40
18.95
52.50
THIS
STOCK
VL ARITH.
INDEX
-2.9
-62.5
-44.0
29.6
-8.6
24.0
10
7.5
13-15
Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh AB
Divds Decld per sh C
Book Value per sh D
Common Shs Outstg E
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield
43.80
4.15
2.40
.60
21.60
52.50
15.0
1.00
1.7%
Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
2300
47.5%
13.0%
1320
125
36.0%
5.4%
600
40.0
1135
11.0%
11.0%
8.5%
25%
1972.4 1909.6
47.7% 46.3%
9.2%
8.1%
1294
1259
58.8
45.5
33.7% 33.0%
3.0%
2.4%
411.4 484.3
62.9
43.5
842.1 902.3
6.7%
4.9%
7.0%
5.0%
5.3%
3.4%
25%
32%
BUSINESS: The Mens Wearhouse, Inc. is one of the largest offprice retailers of mens tailored business attire (both brand name
and private labels). Prices typically are deep,deep discount below
those in department stores. K&G Mens Center operates bigger
stores emphasizing lower-priced mens and ladies merchandise.
Operates 1,252 stores including 582 Mens Wearhouse, 117 Cana-
dian Moores Clothing for Men, 106 K&G, 447 Mens Wearhouse
and Tux (acquired 4/07). Has 15,900 employees. Seven institutions
own 44.2%. Off. & dir. 7.0% incl. CEO and Chairman. George Zimmer, 5.0% (5/10 proxy). President and C.O.O. Douglas Ewert. Inc.:
Texas. Address: 6380 Rogerdale Road, Houston, TX 77072. Telephone: 281-776-7000. Internet: www.menswearhouse.com.
1950
47.5%
9.0%
1200
72.0
36.5%
3.7%
470
Nil
960
7.5%
7.5%
5.5%
27%
losses: 98, (2); 99, (17); 05, (5). Excludes June, Sept, and Dec. (D) Incl. intangibles. As of
extraordinary loss: 99, 5. Excl. discontinued 1/30/10, $59.4 million ($1.13 a share). (E) In
operations loss: 05, 11. Next egs. report due mill. adj. for stock splits.
late August. (C) Divds paid in late March,
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
1980
47.5%
9.5%
1200
80.0
36.5%
4.0%
500
Nil
1020
8.0%
8.0%
5.5%
27%
A
35
70
55
1
3
3
High:
Low:
Raised 5/28/10
53.9
13.4
35.5
10.4
RECENT
PRICE
37.3
14.9
37.3
6.9
15.3 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 18.0) P/E RATIO 0.91 YLD
45.62 P/ERATIO 14.5(Trailing:
31.7
7.9
37.6
16.8
54.6
33.2
71.8
41.8
64.2
20.6
LEGENDS
8.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Options: Yes
Shaded area: prior recession
Latest recession began 12/07
Raised 5/8/09
Lowered 7/30/10
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
43.4
14.9
37.7
17.1
Nil
50.1
31.4
VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015
128
96
80
64
48
40
32
24
Annl Total
Price
Gain
Return
High
85 (+85%) 17%
Low
55 (+20%)
5%
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell
S
0
0
0
O
0
0
0
N
0
0
1
D
0
0
2
J
0
0
0
F
0
0
2
M
0
1
4
A
0
0
0
M
0
1
3
16
12
% TOT. RETURN 6/10
Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
73
to Buy
to Sell
96
Hlds(000) 30163
4Q2009
79
80
30378
1Q2010
100
85
29243
Percent
shares
traded
45
30
15
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
The Childrens Place Retail Stores be- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
came a publicly traded company on Sep- 22.51 24.91 25.27 29.85 42.53 59.70 69.38 74.21 55.33 59.82 63.25 65.70
tember 19, 1997. Approximately 4 million 2.44 2.81 1.73 2.36 3.60 4.18 5.26 3.34
4.63
5.37
5.85
6.15
shares were issued at a price of $14.00 a 1.60 1.73
.38
.85
1.67
2.31
2.92
.60
2.19
2.65
3.15
3.40
share. Lead underwriters were Montgomery
----------Nil
Nil
Securities; Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette; 6.39 8.23 8.62 9.61 11.45 14.05 17.94 16.21 18.59 21.44 23.45 26.25
Smith Barney; and Legg Mason Wood 26.10 26.37 26.57 26.73 27.22 27.95 29.08 29.14 29.47 27.47 27.50 28.00
Walker Inc.
13.2
14.8
56.6
22.8
16.3
19.1
20.2
64.6
12.9
11.0 Bold figures are
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fiscal
Year
Ends
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Calendar
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
5/1/10
223.5
16.3
182.4
76.1
498.3
45.6
-81.1
126.7
Full
Fiscal
Year
2162.6
1630.3
1643.6
1740
1840
Full
Fiscal
Year
NO CASH DIVIDENDS
BEING PAID
.60
2.19
2.65 D
3.15
3.40
Full
Year
.86
--
.76
--
3.09
--
587.4
42.3%
15.7%
400
42.7
39.1%
7.3%
41.0
-166.7
25.6%
25.6%
25.6%
--
657.0
42.6%
15.8%
520
46.6
38.5%
7.1%
77.3
-217.0
21.5%
21.5%
21.5%
--
671.4
37.0%
8.0%
656
10.3
44.4%
1.5%
79.3
-229.0
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
--
1.30
--
.86
--
1.02
--
1.09
--
3.43
--
.78
--
Value Line
estimates
.73
--
1630.3 1643.6
41.2% 40.1%
11.9% 12.5%
917
947
64.9
76.0
44.8% 41.1%
4.0%
4.6%
312.6 311.4
55.0
55.0
547.9 589.0
11.0% 13.0%
11.8% 12.9%
11.8% 12.9%
---
1740
40.5%
12.8%
1000
88.0
41.0%
5.0%
315
Nil
645
13.5%
13.5%
13.5%
Nil
1840
41.2%
13.0%
1050
95.0
41.0%
5.2%
370
Nil
725
13.0%
13.0%
13.0%
Nil
THIS
STOCK
VL ARITH.
INDEX
66.6
-14.8
-5.7
29.6
-8.6
24.0
Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh B
Divds Decld per sh
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield
Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
13-15
79.30
7.30
4.60
Nil
35.90
28.00
15.0
1.00
Nil
2200
42.0%
13.0%
1250
130
40.0%
5.8%
570
Nil
1000
13.0%
13.0%
13.0%
Nil
(B) Diluted earnings. Next earnings report due total due to change in shares outstanding.
late August.
(E) Discontinued Disney Stores.
(C) In millions.
(D) Quarterly earnings do not sum to full-year
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
B
30
65
40
2
2
3
High:
Low:
Lowered 6/4/10
13.1
8.5
12.2
6.0
LEGENDS
8.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Lowered 8/6/10
2-for-1 split 3/97
BETA .80 (1.00 = Market)
2-for-1 split 9/99
2-for-1 split 12/03
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
Options: Yes
Annl Total Shaded area: prior recession
Price
Gain
Return Latest recession began 12/07
S
0
2
2
O
0
0
1
N
0
0
0
17.1
8.3
23.6
15.9
13.6 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 15.0) P/E RATIO 0.80 YLD 1.3%
54.13 P/ERATIO 12.7(Trailing:
28.1
16.3
32.9
21.0
31.4
22.3
31.8
22.1
35.2
24.4
41.6
21.2
50.5
28.1
58.9
42.3
D
0
0
0
J
0
1
1
F
0
2
2
VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015
Raised 5/8/09
High
80 (+50%)
Low
60 (+10%)
Insider Decisions
to Buy
Options
to Sell
RECENT
PRICE
120
100
80
64
48
2-for-1
32
24
20
16
12
11%
4%
M
0
1
2
A
0
3
5
M
0
3
2
Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
170
216
174
to Buy
to Sell
201
191
235
Hlds(000) 122879 123219 124211
Percent
shares
traded
45
30
15
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
THIS
STOCK
VL ARITH.
INDEX
39.6
79.1
94.2
29.6
-8.6
24.0
13-15
Sales per sh A B
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh C
Divds Decld per sh D
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg E
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield
101.00
8.75
6.50
1.00
21.75
100.00
11.0
.75
1.4%
6486.1 7184.2
25.8% 28.1%
9.8% 12.3%
956
1005
305.4 442.8
38.3% 38.4%
4.7%
6.2%
358.4 554.9
150.0 150.0
996.4 1157.3
27.0% 34.2%
30.7% 38.3%
25.7% 33.5%
16%
12%
Sales ($mill) A B
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
10100
28.0%
13.0%
1285
675
38.5%
6.7%
1300
150
2175
29.0%
31.0%
26.5%
15%
BUSINESS: Ross Stores, Inc. operates a chain of 953 off-price retail stores located in 27 states and Guam. Stores offer primarily
first-quality, in-season, name brand and designer apparel,
accessories, footwear, and home fashions for the entire family at
everyday savings of 20%-60% below department- and specialtystore prices. Also has 52 dds DISCOUNTS stores in four states.
6.46
7.25
8.56 10.38 11.80 13.90 16.82 18.91 22.79 25.93 28.90 34.31 39.97 44.56
.28
.36
.56
.77
.90
1.09
1.22
1.30
1.73
2.02
1.87
2.15
2.51
2.85
.16
.22
.39
.59
.70
.85
.91
.96
1.26
1.47
1.19
1.36
1.70
1.90
.03
.03
.04
.05
.06
.07
.08
.09
.10
.13
.18
.22
.26
.32
1.30
1.48
1.67
1.99
2.30
2.67
2.90
3.45
4.15
5.00
5.22
5.80
6.53
7.24
195.46 196.81 197.33 191.67 185.00 177.55 161.05 157.92 154.98 151.21 146.72 144.11 139.36 134.10
11.6
8.3
11.8
13.5
14.0
12.4
9.5
13.8
15.8
15.4
22.5
20.1
16.6
15.5
.76
.56
.74
.78
.73
.71
.62
.71
.86
.88
1.19
1.07
.90
.82
1.5%
1.7%
.8%
.6%
.6%
.6%
.9%
.7%
.5%
.6%
.7%
.8%
.9%
1.1%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 5/1/10
Total Debt $150.0 mill. Due in 5 Yrs. None
LT Debt $150.0 mill.
LT Int. $10.0 mill.
(11% capl)
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $340.6 mill.
No Defined Benefits Pension Plan
Pfd Stock None
Common Stock 122,094,664 shs.
as of 5/20/10
MARKET CAP: $6.6 billion (Large Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
322.2
770.1
Receivables
41.2
44.2
Inventory (Retail)
881.1
872.5
Other
69.2
58.6
Current Assets
1313.7 1745.4
Accts Payable
536.7
658.3
Debt Due
--Other
418.6
532.2
Current Liab.
955.3 1190.5
5/1/10
825.6
54.3
908.1
71.7
1859.7
748.8
-480.7
1229.5
7800
28.0%
12.8%
1055
506
38.5%
6.5%
680
150
1320
34.5%
38.5%
32.0%
16%
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
8250
27.8%
12.6%
1105
525
38.5%
6.4%
790
150
1475
32.5%
35.5%
29.5%
17%
A
80
60
90
2
3
4
High:
Low:
Lowered 5/28/10
3.9
1.5
3.4
0.8
RECENT
PRICE
3.1
1.0
4.7
2.2
23.4 RELATIVE
DIVD
Median: 22.0) P/E RATIO 1.26 YLD
32.97 P/ERATIO 20.0(Trailing:
10.3
2.1
24.2
9.2
LEGENDS
16.0 x Cash Flow p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Lowered 3/12/10
2-for-1 split 9/03
BETA 1.15 (1.00 = Market)
2-for-1 split 7/04
2-for-1 split 9/05
2013-15 PROJECTIONS
Options: Yes
Annl Total Shaded area: prior recession
Price
Gain
Return Latest recession began 12/07
to Buy
Options
to Sell
O
0
2
2
N
0
2
3
29.9
13.6
29.4
19.2
38.4
12.3
35.8
13.6
40.8
30.1
D
0
0
0
J
0
1
1
F
0
0
0
A
0
0
1
80
60
50
40
30
25
20
15
2-for-1
21%
8%
M
0
3
3
2-for-1
2-for-1
M
0
1
0
Institutional Decisions
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
148
156
194
to Buy
to Sell
143
152
153
Hlds(000) 131165 131578 134433
Percent
shares
traded
45
30
15
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
.81
.97
1.12
1.22
1.48
1.99
2.14
2.51
2.73
3.44
5.08
6.63
7.42
9.08
.10
.11
.12
.13
.15
.20
.16
.22
.29
.44
.78
1.03
1.04
1.39
.08
.09
.09
.10
.11
.13
.08
.11
.18
.30
.57
.77
.69
.94
--------------.34
.44
.54
.64
.75
.87
.94
1.05
1.45
1.82
2.47
3.40
4.09
5.14
135.57 136.64 140.23 141.60 141.12 138.87 138.03 138.82 155.05 159.55 162.89 164.83 164.99 166.10
20.8
16.1
23.3
19.5
18.3
20.0
16.6
17.2
18.6
19.3
27.6
34.9
30.1
26.1
1.36
1.08
1.46
1.12
.95
1.14
1.08
.88
1.02
1.10
1.46
1.86
1.63
1.39
--------------CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 4/30/10
Total Debt None
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $139.6 mill.
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Preferred Stock None
Common Stock 169,152,038 shares
MARKET CAP: $5.6 billion (Large Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2008
2009
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
366.0
501.5
Receivables
36.4
38.4
Inventory (FIFO)
169.7
186.1
Other
52.3
80.2
Current Assets
624.4
806.2
Accts Payable
63.0
78.0
Debt Due
--Other
78.2
110.5
Current Liab.
141.2
188.5
ANNUAL RATES Past
of change (per sh)
10 Yrs.
Sales
21.0%
Cash Flow
26.0%
Earnings
26.0%
Dividends
-Book Value
24.0%
Fiscal
Year
Begins
VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2013 2014 2015
New 11/19/99
High
70 (+110%)
Low
45 (+35%)
Insider Decisions
S
0
2
3
33.8
18.9
Nil
4/30/10
583.3
35.4
222.0
79.8
920.5
100.4
-96.7
197.1
Full
Fiscal
Year
1507.7
1834.6
1937.8
2300
2625
Full
Fiscal
Year
.94
1.17
1.28
1.65
1.90
Full
Year
295.3
36.3%
10.1%
68
10.5
41.0%
3.6%
31.7
-129.6
8.1%
8.1%
8.1%
--
349.0
37.0%
11.7%
80
15.0
40.5%
4.3%
41.4
-145.9
10.3%
10.3%
10.3%
--
422.8
40.0%
15.0%
93
27.4
40.5%
6.5%
101.5
-224.4
12.2%
12.2%
12.2%
--
548.4
43.0%
18.8%
114
48.4
40.5%
8.8%
118.0
-290.1
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
--
THIS
STOCK
VL ARITH.
INDEX
64.6
43.1
21.3
29.6
-8.6
24.0
Sales per sh A
Cash Flowper sh
Earnings per sh B
Divds Decld per sh
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outstg
Avg Annl P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Annl Divd Yield
1834.6 1937.8
43.4% 45.3%
20.8% 22.3%
294
327
199.4 219.9
35.6% 36.2%
10.9% 11.3%
483.2 617.6
--1053.8 1296.8
18.9% 17.0%
18.9% 17.0%
18.9% 17.0%
---
Sales ($mill) A
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Number of Stores
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Capl ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capl
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Divds to Net Prof
2300
45.5%
22.5%
370
285
36.0%
12.4%
680
Nil
1615
17.5%
17.5%
17.5%
Nil
2625
45.8%
22.7%
415
330
36.0%
12.6%
755
Nil
1985
16.5%
16.5%
16.5%
Nil
10
7.5
13-15
21.25
3.50
2.70
Nil
19.75
174.00
21.0
1.40
Nil
3700
46.5%
23.0%
555
480
36.5%
13.0%
1060
Nil
3440
14.0%
14.0%
14.0%
Nil
continue posting solid results in the coming six to 12 months. There were some
minor hiccups during the recent economic
downturn, but Urban easily outperformed
most of its retail counterparts thanks to
strong customer loyalty and solid management. We think this trend will continue in
the near future, and look for the company
to report near-30% share-earnings growth
in fiscal 2010.
Urban is slowly expanding in Europe.
The company plans to open 45 stores this
year. Five or six of those will probably be
opened across the pond (where roughly 20
locations already exist). Management has
been very cautious, given the competitive
nature of the crowded European marketplace. Moreover, the company is tailoring
its goods to suit local tastes, which is increasing overhead and decreasing profitability. Nonetheless, we think the venture
will be a nice boon to earnings over the
long haul.
This issue is timely, thanks to the positive quarterly earnings comparisons
posted of late. Long-term capital appreciation potential is above average, too.
Andre J. Costanza
August 6, 2010
(A) Fiscal years end January 31st of following (B) Primary earnings thru 96, diluted there- (C) In millions, adjusted for stock splits.
calendar year.
after. Excludes nonrecurring loss: 04, 3.
Quarterly figures may not sum due to rounding.
Next earnings report due mid-August.
2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No part
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.
A
45
95
75