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5.2
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5.4
5.5
5.6

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4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5

21
22

86
88

6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
7


7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
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7.7
7.8

7.9
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2008-10
2008-09
2009
2011-15

(km)
230
329
40
293
892

(US$ )
69
99
12
88
268

    

 
     
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2007-
MW
1,800
South Gobi

1,600

CES
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

        

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b

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902
2009
902
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952
2011
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750
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207
2013 +270 (#5 )
1,620
450
400
2015 +220 ()
450
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)
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2016
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2017
2,009
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2,279
450
2019
2,279
2020
2,279
a. . 

b. 255 

13

  ,
MW
2500

Imports
Egiin HPP
Oyu Tolgoi TPP

2000

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Tavan Tolgoi
TPP
TPP#4

1500

Erdenet TPP
Darkhan TPP
1000
TPP#3
TPP#2
Newcom

500

Peak demand
20% reserve
margin

0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

      
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Russia imports

2000
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1000
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Darkhan TPP
500
TPP#3
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


     

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2.2. 

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   11.5
 (http://www.southgobi.com/s/OvootTolgoi.asp) .

30

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2.2. 






/


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1.78
2.72
3.46
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35


 


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1,597,333
10,603,167
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250,087
650,087
521,739
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$
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$ 5,217,391.00 $
$
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937,565
52,174
5,217,391
4,087,576
10,294,706

*  
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$ 8,000,000.00 $
$
349,694.50 $
$
15.60 $
$
9.23 $
$
171.00 $
$

8,000,000
699,389
1,195,700
3,538,413
1,365,777
14,799,279

m
m

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345.00 $
$
176.78 $
$ 3,000,000.00 $
$
30,000.00 $
$
930.00 $
$

6,612,960
5,082,853
18,000,000
2,160,000
4,456,560
36,312,373


9,067 m

7,275
4
1
1
1

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$
$
$
$


 
  

   
  




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198.00 $
$

103.09
28,900
128,000
140,000
158,000

1,795,369
1,795,369

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$
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$
$
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115,600
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41

     
       

       
       
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0.06
0.03
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0.41
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3.4




  , 45
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2008  

  
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www.worldbank.org/southgobi . 


        
 
        
        
 -20       
.
        
   

     
 40-50
 
      
 
          
 
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46

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51

        

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Rail cost minus road cost (US$ per ntkm)

0.20

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0.05

0.00
1

10

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Volume (million tonnes per year)
15%

10%

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:
x ; 

x

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x

     





52

 

  
       
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53

  




   

          
         
           
  
       

   
 
  

   
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 (US$ 23.50). 
      


54

         
, 


 

    
      


    

  

 
          



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-
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55

  


             
         

        

          
      
  

   
   

  
       

 

 
:
x
x
x
x

x
x


   

     

 

    
  

         

      
     


  
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-
     


         

         

  

-  -
        
    - 
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56

 

       
         

        


       

        
      


        
 .
      

    
    

  

     
      
 
  
       


57

B.



$12.00
(410 km)
x $21.00
x $14.80
x $12.70

C.
D.




$12.00
$12.00
(385 km)
(870 km)
x $19.70
x $44.50
x $13.90
x $31.40
x 12.00
x $27.00

E.


F.

G.


58

$12.00
$12.00
$12.00
$12.00
 (1)
 (2)
(410 km)
(860 km)
(390 km)
(490 km)
x 10 
x $21.00
x $44.00
x $20.00
x 25.10$
x 20 
x $14.80
x $31.00
x $14.10
x $17.70
x 30 
x $12.70
x $26.70
x $12.10
x $15.20
  
(240 km)
(350 km)
(360 km)
(760 km)
(410 km)
(3)
x 10 
x $4.80
x $7.00
x $7.20
x $15.20
x $8.20
x 20 
x $8.25
x $12.60
x $13.00
x $27.40
x $14.80
x 30 
x $7.10
x $10.90
x $11.20
x $23.60
x $12.70
$1.00



$23.50
$18.00
(4)


(3,172 km)
(3172 km)
(3,634 km)
(3,634 km)
$31.72
$31.72
$36.34
$36.34
 (5)

x 10 
x $33.00
x $56.50
x $55.50
x $95.22
x 94.92
x $83.54
x $81.64
x 20 
x $26.80
x $50.30
x $53.15
x $87.72
x $87.72
x $89.84
x $80.84
x 30 
x $24.70
x $48.20
x $50.10
x $81.62
x $81.62
x $84.04
x $76.24
  -$28
  -

                     
  -

A.



4.1.  )

59

 
                     



         

 .
20       
          
    

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     86   



           
       
        

         


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 (US$ 23.50). 
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60


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.          
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-

  

         
         
   

   
     
       
    
 
         

 

    
       
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  86        


      123 (US$ 18)  


        
 15%-
- 
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61

 

    

 
     

 
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 ; 1.9  ; 0.4  ;  0.6 
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62



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3.30- 1
  

     
      
     



       
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63

 
  
      
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      -  


        
  ,    )  
  .    

      



64

   

.

  

       
     
,  
  .   
.
 ,  2008-2020


   

   
      
         
     

  
 
       
  .        
.
4.2



 

()

2008-10
2008-09
2009
2011-15

230
329
40
293

65

(
)
69
99
12
88

892

268

     
   
 
  
       
        
  
.
       
     ,
       

      

        
        
. 
    

    
.
4.5 , 
 
 2       
     
 
        

 
    
 
       


  



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2

66



     
         
        
 
         

  
         
       
       


  

         
      
        
 

4.5 
:
x  - 
  
       
       
.
x

   -   
    . -  
 
 .

67

    
  
  
      
      
.

  

   
 


 

       
       
.

68

5 

x

   


 

(#5,  )
2013- 


 
 
-



670 




o  
.
o #5  (300) - 
 
.
o -
 #5, -
.

 550 .


- 

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30 

5.1 
        
      

 91%, 96%- .
     ,
- 

69

  
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x

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().

 ().

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.
     
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.
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-
-
-



-

-
: 2007 

3,594
16.5%
3,000
130
3,132
17.4%
2,587

70

5.2 - 



#2
#3
#4

21.5
136
540
48
28.8




16.4%
18.0
21.0%
107.4
14.8%
460.1
18.5%
39.1
22.8%

22.2




31
518
1045
181
120

 




62.2%
23.3%
49.3%
34.2%
52.6%
39.3%
62.0
28.1%
56.5%

43.8%

  
-.
 -     
  

    

 -    
:
x

  (  - 
  220-  


   
        - 
     - 
.

   - 


 

5.2 
 
        


71

 2007-20
MW
1,800
South Gobi

1,600

CES
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

-
- 
    . -

-.
-  
(2000-20-  
  -  
       
 
      
.
-      


      
 
.
 
          
. 
x

   
    
   )     
-.

 14
     
    
 

72

    
        
 
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.

  

    



 
  
.

     -
      
     
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     - 


- 
-     
       
 3.0%-        
   .   


.
5.3 
2012-20 
  

    
 . :   
       ),  
-      
         
     
        -2014

- 
-  
 631       
 #4- 
     (      13% )
 .
    #2   2005
 #3-   2008, 2011 
 -       

73

    -    
-  #2-   
# 3 -
    #4   
. - ,
 629 
.
-       - 
          
 

.
 
 
     
           
    
  
         
 
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 .
      

  
     

 
       
          
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.

    -     
 . 
  50    .  
      .  
        

    

  
   


    

   

484    
    
       
   


    
 

74

 
       


           
      


 
 
     - 
       
  
  
       -
 
.

   -       -
    219 
       

- 
     
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-
 
      
       
  
  -100 -   
 
       
-
        5:1
 
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.
         
 
   

75

    -
     
.

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. :
x

       (  827
).

  300 
.

         
 40%.

        


1,300 500-  

 
      -  
 -.

     10,800


   
   
   
  ,
     
.
 -2013
        
.

     

 

   -   
 
  

 

   
:

76

x
x
x

  600 ,    4,144
();
  8%
 350  580/.

   
   
       
  .       
1,500 .
 . 
       55  
        

  
 2012-20
.       
        
     


        
      


        
      



  -     
      
        
        
 . -  650 - 
 ,*&&     
   
      - 
250 -
-          
  -  
         
           
  

  
 
  - 
    
     
      
- 
    -    

      . 
       

77

        

- 
 120 , 
  

      
         
 - 
      

x
x
x

-
.
 
.
 
 




   
 .

5.4
        
     2012-20  
 
    

        

 
         
   -    
        
      

#5, - 2012-13
   .     
 - 
        
     

 


 

    
 
   
    
         
.

78

5.3 



()

#5

300




(
)
$13001400/

 


2013

50

$95,000/

2010

220

$1420/

2015

100

$1600/

2015

50-100

$1600/

2012

450

$14501550/

2012

3600-10800

$827/

2013-2014

600

$580

2014

IGCC



$600/

2014-2015

-


255 




$204,000/
/ ;
$18/

79

   





  

  

.   
   
   

-





  
 


 







.

-
.
.
 



  



.   
   

,   
  
   





 


. 



  


  
  
  




 







 






  
    
-
    
  
 . 
     . 
  

x

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   (   
 ).    


,

   

    
    -   



 

    
 # 5,        
        
:
x
x

      

       
         

      (   
  ).      
        
(35%-) 
    #5- 
 
        
   
  

#5 

80

5.4 

  
 


$/ N
$/
$/







()

5.3

#5


/ 





300

40

1,240

127

38.0

36.0%

12.0

300

40

1,240

127

38.0

36.0%

37.0

300

40

1,110

114

33.0

33.0%

30.0













300

40

1,110

114

33.0

33.0%

55.0

300

40

1,110

114

33.0

33.0%

0.0

150

40

1,500

153

33.0

32.0%

35.0

150

40

1,500

153

33.0

32.0%

5.0

5.5 , 
      

 
.
5.5 

()

a
()

2008



b
()




($ )

902
5.4

2009

902
5.5

2010

+50 ()

952
5.6

2011

952
5.7

2012

+416 ()
- 

-18 ( #2)

81

1350

750
207

2013

+270 (

2015

+220 ()
+277 (   
)

2016

1,620

450
400
450

-107 ( #3)

2,117
2,009
5.8

2017

2,009
5.9

2018

+270 (

2,279

2019

450

2,279
5.10

2020

2,279
5.11

a. . 
-
. 

       -  (
  

   

)        

  , -  
        150 -
  
          150    -   - 
       7% .

       


       -  
     2013-  

 

82

MW
2500

FJ
" >*A
@B& ":*A

2000

:* 5
& ":*A
1500

:*A 4
 ;;:*A
: :*A

1000
:*AK
:*AL
+B

500

@ ' 
20% ;"
' 

0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

 
MW
2500
Interconnector

2000
Oyu Tolgoi TPP

1500
Tavan Tolgoi
TPP
1000
Peak demand
(inc. transfers
to CES)
500
20% reserve
margin
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

5.6
      
 


 .
  ,   .     
 (   
)  .
    ( )   
62  
 50  

83

    
    

      . /USAID/ 
   


   
   

   

. 
US$/MWh

US$m
600

70
Fuel

500

Capacity

60

Average generation cost


50
400
40
300
30
200
20
100

10

0
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020



       
     

  
 

       
         
   . (    ). 
  .
,   
 -   . 
        

    -   
          

        
  20-        
().
5.7 
       

          

84


  


 

  

      
        
        

   #5-     
          
 
  - 

   
        
      
 

  -    
                  
        
        


 
- 
MW
2500

&@
@>-FJ 

2000
" ! >*A
:*AX

1500

:*AY
1000
 ;;:*A
: :*A
500
:*AK
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

85

  )


MW
2500
:  

2000
=B& ":*A

1500
&& ":*A

1000
&A- ' 
)
500
20% 

0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

5.8 
:
x
x
x
x
x
x

-
  -   
 

       
-

      


        

       


86

6 
x
x



.
 
 

o  350,000 3 .
o  500,000 3/
 300,000 3 
, 
- 

 
,  
. (
).
  
:
o 

o 
 
.
 
 (
2.5  
) 
o 

o  
 
o 


6.1 
     3,-  
3 . , , 
 .

87

(3/)
Tourism &
environment

400 000
350 000

Irrigation

300 000
250 000

Industry

200 000
150 000

Rural

100 000
Urban

50 000
2008

2015

2020

Mining


   55,000  
6,200 3 
      . 
 100- 
 
.
6.1.  


/
3/
1-15
4,000

3/
2,000

10

18

0.4-27

5,000

3,200

15

1-10

3,500

1,000

15,00
0
29,00
0
10,00
0



//
133
110
100

    

   
  2008
 

         -180
 
.
          
 
       
  3 , 2020  
3
 .

 
       
     
      - 3 .

88

            -30

-(
      )  
 4,200 35,400 3 

       32,000 3 
.
6.2



(2003)
(3/)



4
3,400,000
13,600

35
100,000
3,500

35
260,000
9,100

45
120,000
5,400

3,880,000
31,600
    (5%)  
3 , 3  
 
     9,000 3 . 
  2015
120,000 3 200,000 3 
       
  
     
        
,     


.      
  .
     
  . 

100-  
       -600
          
          
.
      


   
 22,000 3  . 2 
  3

3 0
 
3   
82,000 3

89

2020   
    
  41,000 3 


 10,000 3,  3 
 
 ,        
         


 
 12,500 3 . 
 3 .
        
          
         
15,000 3 
6.2




        
()-

         
 
          
     
      .
             
.
 


   

 ()  
  (     
 .    
    

90

     
    
   
 . 
           
  

    

  

     . 
   -   

 
 
  
.
 
    
  

       
      
   
      

 (       
        
 (
  
     
.
       
. :
x

      -2% 
 -       
 680,000-3 

  
 
 3    1980-   
 
       
 
    -    
   

 -60%   


 3 

91

.
 
. 
        
       

 
         
     
    ,
       

  (350,000 k2)     
   .  
     

)    
     ,  0.1 
3  3,500
3  (50 -100
).
  
   3 ( 96 3) .
    
    
 ( ).     
    .  
(550 2)    42 3    
 .
       4,000
k2    . 1-2% -   (7,000 k2)
,  
  250-500 3  ( 680,000-1,370,000
3).
 

92

 
   580,000 3   
         
 .

6.3.  (3/

50 200 -

200 


135,616

61,233

89,589

60,000

8,500

111,000

69,733

199,589

115,000
310,616

  (<50  )    
   .      
      
  
.
    (100-150 )   
     


x


1- -      
 

   


        

 
165,000 k2; 74,500 k2;
109,000 k2.      -
950,000 3 
30%- 300,000 3 .
    ,     
 

93

 - 
 . 
         
. (
  )      ( 
)  .    - 
.
         
 
  60,000 3-  
.        
        .
         
     

 
       
 .
 480 3 1.3 3 
6.4.  ) (2007)
3


2

(// )

>1

0.1-1.0




0.03-0.1


0.003-0.03

<0.003


( /)

31
25
19
138
77
71

89

19

3
0
261

3
0
107

4
0
113

 
  

  
       

 
 / (130,000 3) 
      
        
      
.  
     -       
.

94

6.5. 


 

50

50

425
7






/

/

10

50
0.96

100
1.92

100
9.6

850
16.32

8
1500
9

10

15

35
10




12

12

12

12
11

20

20

67

49
12

10

25

10

75
13

12

12

30
14



86

1,080

360

9,180

15
16

17







200,000

250,000

250,000

300,000


3

200

250

250

600



200,000


3

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000



50,000

3,000,0
00

500,000

1,000,0
00

21

26

51

126

22
224

25

35

23

29

56

151

259

18

  







19
300,000

400,000

1,000,0
00

20
21

95

  

5,421

3,305

1,290

2,058
23

23.1 
  
          
     
: -, -
-    / ( 3/)   
    ,    
    20-    .

 
-   1,500  (130,000 3/)   
 - -     
.
  -        
  -    

      
(500  ).
23.2 ,  

       

            
     
      
       

       
 , 
.
        
         
 :
x , 
  
  

  


 .
x         
     

  

x        

        
  
.
x     
  
 

96

         
  
     

       



23.3 
   550,000-1,370,000 3 (200-500 3/)
           .
  80,000 3  .    
350,000 3 .  
 
 
 .   
   
        
 . , 
.

    
      
        
 

 
 

     
     
 

97

 
          
         
  


  ,    


       

  . /  


        
 /.
         


 
     
 

       
   
       
 

    
       

 .
     
  
 ,        
       

        
       
.   


 (2004)  
  .   ,
         

  2006
3

/ 
 
20
30
10
30







,


100
100
80
10

98

120
120
120
30




,
,


10

30

1%

      
    
    
 
    
      

23.4 
     
 :
x
x
x
x
x
x
x

x
x
x
x

    
;
      
    


, ;
-;
    ( )

;
      
     
;

 ;
       
, :
 
   

 ;
     
;

;
          
   



     
   
     


  -       
      
       
 
      

          
        

99

  
     


. 
x 
x  

6.7.  

()

(5 )
 &






3,000
1,000
1,000
2,000

180
180
36
36


540,000
180,000
36,000
72,000
100,000



100,000

200,000





()

20,000
40,000
2,000
5,000

20
12
36
10

400,000
480,000
72,000
50,000
200,000
2,430,000

100

7. 

x 



x 


x 


x 
,
/
/ 

x 

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144

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