Chiến lược Đầu tư Q3/2016 - Bảo toàn lợi nhuận - 14/07/2016

Chin lc u t Qu 3/2016
BO TON LI NHUN
Khi Phn tch

Cng ty C phn Chng khon VNDIRECT
S 1 Nguyn Thng Hin H Ni
in thoi: +844 3972 4568
Email: research@vndirect.com.vn
Website: https://vndirect.com.vn
14/07/2016
Ni dung chnh
THNG IP QU 3
VNINDEX vt mc khng c 640, cn sng ln hnh thnh ngay t cui thng 6, tc l sm hn so
vi nhn nh ca chng ti trong bo co chin lc Qu 2 (ngy 14/04/2016). Nhng ht tt c la
chn nhng khng phi ai cng mnh dn gieo ht khi VNINDEX ch c 1 giai on ti tch ly ngn (610630) trc t c im s cao nht 8 nm.
Th trng to nh cao mi khin nh u t ng trc 2 la chn, hng phn trc con sng ln khi
th trng tng mnh c v im s ln thanh khon cho thy dng tin ang chy vo th trng y tch
cc; hay thn trng khi th trng tng im mnh v cha c giai on tch ly di.
Sau quan im tch ly ht tt trong Qu 2, chng ti cho rng gi l lc Nh u t cn hnh ng cn
trng hn bo ton li nhun ca mnh. C hi vn cn, tuy nhin ri ro ca th trng hin ti ln
hn, c th xut hin nhiu s bin ng mnh trong bi cnh th trng ti chnh th gii tim tng bt n.
C PHIU KHUYN NGH Q3/2016
M c
phiu
Gi mc Khuyn
tiu (VND)
ngh
20.000
MUA
SDI
Chuyn i m hnh t ngn hng bn bun truyn thng sang ngn hng bn l, kt hp vi c phiu ang giao dch
nh gi thp nht trong vng 1 nm tr li y
79.000
MUA
Sn lng cng VGP tng nhanh hn k vng, d phng lp y cng sut sau 2 nm hot ng
Trin vng tt trong 2 nm ti nh li th qu t ln, v tr p v thng hiu ni ting thu ht cc tp on hng u
18.500 NM GI
TG
n/a
MUA
Trin vng tch cc nm 2016-2017 nh tin bn hng vt tri
VIT
31.000
MUA
CVT
45.500
MUA
TRC
27.000
MUA
CTG
VSC
KBC
Li nhun tng mnh nh nh my mi v gi nhin liu gim

ng lc tng trng 2016 t vic m rng nh my CMC2 sn xut gch granite, n u xu th vi chin lc th
trng ngch
n u kh nng tng gi ca cao su t nhin v TRC l c phiu c trin vng nht trong ngnh nh c cu cy trng
v c cu sn phm ti u.
Ngun: VNDIRECT
CP NHT C PHIU KHUYN NGH QU 2 (TI BCCL Q2 NGY 14/04/2016)
1,7%
Khuyn ngh
mi
MUA
MBB
14.500
MUA
16.000
15.000
3,5%
NM GI
16.000
VCB
41.600
MUA
50.500
54.000
29,8%
NM GI
55.000
CVT
23.500
MUA
28.300
33.900
44,3%
MUA
45.000
DPM
27.200
MUA
37.200
29.100
7,0%
MUA
37.200
FPT
40.783
MUA
52.174
42.600
4,5%
MUA
52.100
HPG
31.500
MUA
35.700
41.100
30,5%
MUA
46.900
PET
11.900
MUA
15.500
13.100
10,1%
NM GI
15.500
PNJ
51.500
MUA
66.000
77.500
50,5%
NM GI
88.500
VSC
54.090
MUA
72.000
65.500
21,1%
MUA
79.000
C phiu
ACB
Gi ti ngy khuyn Khuyn ngh ngy

ngh 11/4/2016 (VND)
11/04/2016
18.200
MUA
Gi mc tiu
11/04/2016 (VND)
21.900
Gi hin ti
12/07/2016 (VND)
18.500
VNINDEX
+/- (%)
Gi mc tiu
mi (VND)
21.900
8,98%
Ngun: VNDIRECT
CP NHT DANH MC U T THEO CHIN LC C TC (TI BCCL Q2 NGY 14/04/2016)
CVT
Gi ti ngy khuyn
ngh 30/03/2016 (VND)
23.500
Gi hin ti
12/07/2016 (VND)
33.900
15,32%
Li tc c phn (%)
30/03/2016
11,1%
DHP
13.900
11.600
-11,51%
7,2%
8,6%
BN
DPM
28.000
29.100
1,07%
8,6%
8,3%
MUA
KHP
11.625
10.300
-13,12%
8,2%
9,3%
BN
MBB
14.400
15.000
7,64%
7,0%
6,7%
NM GI
NTL
10.700
10.500
9,35%
9,1%
9,3%
MUA
PET
12.000
13.100
14,17%
11,5%
10,5%
MUA
PGS
17.000
16.500
7,06%
7,2%
7,4%
MUA
PVS
16.000
18.200
26,25%
7,4%
6,5%
NM GI
PXS
12.615
11.900
16,53%
10,0%
10,6%
MUA
TDC
6.265
6.000
3,75%
13,9%
14,5%
NM GI
C phiu
+/- (%)
Li tc c phn (%)
Khuyn ngh mi
12/07/2016
7,7%
MUA
Ngun: VNDIRECT
www.vndirect.com.vn
Ni dung chnh
NI DUNG CHNH CA BO CO
Kinh t th gii
Cc t chc nghin cu ln ng lot h d bo tng trng kinh t nm 2016 (WB h d bo xung
2,4%): Hu ht cc nn kinh t u phi i mt vi trin vng tng trng chm, c bit l (1) nhm nn kinh t
pht trin vn c t nhiu k vng hi u nm nay v (2) nhm nn kinh t mi ni v ang pht trin c nn
kinh t ph thuc nhiu vo hot ng xut khu.
Brexit to c sc ln i vi th trng ti chnh ton cu
Chng ti cho rng, tc ng ca Brexit i vi th trng ti chnh ton cu l rt ln v kh c th o lng c
ht trong ngn hn, c bit l tng ri ro trn cc kha cnh (1) phn ng dy chuyn trong ni khi EU i tin
hnh cc cuc trng cu dn khc, (2) gia tng cc bin ng mnh trn th trng tin t, (3) tc ng n cc
quyt nh v chnh sch tin t ca NHTW M, Chu u, Nht Bn, Anh Quc, (4) nh hnh li dng vn lun
chuyn trong na cui nm 2016, dng tin s hng ti cc th trng v ti sn c mc an ton cao hn.
ng thi chnh sch tin t ca cc NHTW ln trn th gii trong na cui nm 2016
Vi nhng ri ro mi xut hin trn th trng ti chnh ton cu, chng ti cho rng nhiu kh nng FED s ch
n thng 12 mi tip tc nng li sut. ng thi ngc li th NHTW Chu u (ECB) s gi nguyn quy m
ni lng hin ti v cha vi vng a thm cc chnh sch ni lng mi.
Ni lng tin t nhiu kh nng s l xu hng ca cc NHTW trong na cui nm nay khi ln lt NHTW Nht
Bn, Trung Quc v Anh u c nhng tuyn b s gi nguyn/bt u cc chnh sch ni lng tin t ca
mnh.
Din bin dng tin u t v xu hng phn b ti sn trn th gii
Din bin 6 thng u nm 2016: Dng tin c xu hng v TTCK ti Chu u v M trong khi tng gi
tr mua rng 4T2016 vo cc th trng ny t hn 360 t USD. chiu ngc li, dng tin u t rt rng
khi Trung Quc vi gi tr t 343 t USD trong 5T/2016.
Nhn nh xu hng dng tin 6 thng cui nm 2016: Chng ti cho rng dng tin nng trn th trng
s dch chuyn t cc th trng v ti sn ri ro cao sang cc th trng v ti sn t ri ro hn tr n, c
bit l th trng chng khon M bao gm ng USD, c phiu vn ha ln, tri phiu Kho bc M, tri phiu
doanh nghip xp hng u t, tri phiu li sut cao. Mt s th trng chng khon khc cng c th thu
ht c dng tin vo trong na cui nm nh Canada, n v mt s th trng mi ni ti Chu .
Din bin gi c hng ha 6 thng cui nm 2016
Gi nng lng: Chng ti d bo gi du WTI v du Brent na cui nm 2016 ri vo khong 45-50

USD/thng.
Gi nng sn: S c s phn ha gia cc loi hng ha, tuy nhin xu hng ch o vn l tng, c bit
i vi mt s mt hng nng sn nh ma ng, cao su, bng.
Gi kim loi: Phn ha gia cc loi hng ha. Gi qung st c d bo gim nh, trong khi gi nhm,
nickel v km d bo tng nh.
Kinh t Vit Nam

Tng trng kinh t
Trong bi cnh GDP c du hiu tng trng chm li, chng ti tin rng Chnh ph s c nhng ng thi ni
lng chnh sch mnh m (c bit l chnh sch tin t) v sn lng khai thc du th tng tr li th tng trng
nm 2016 hon ton c kh nng vt 6,5%. Trong kch bn xu hn l cc chnh sch h tr khng c thc
hin hoc khng hiu qu chng ti s h d bo tng trng GDP nm 2016 xung khong 6,4% - 6,5% (gim
so vi mc 6,75% a ra u nm).
Lo ngi ch yu ca chng i vi lm pht n t chnh sch tin t, c bit khi chng ti d bo rng CSTT s
c ni lng quyt lit trong 2 Qu cui nm, khi lm pht nm 2016 c d bo khong 4-5%.
Tng trng chm s lm tng ri ro lin quan n n cng
www.vndirect.com.vn
Ni dung chnh
Tnh ti cui nm 2015, t l n cng/ GDP t 61,3%. Vi thc trng n cng nh hin nay, nu tng trng
chm li s khin cho ri ro n cng tng cao, t l n cng s vt trn cho php ca Quc hi. Do , p lc
phi duy tr tng trng kinh t l kh ln. y chnh l mt trong nhng cn c chng ti cho rng cc chnh
sch s c ni lng mnh trong 6 thng cui nm, c bit l chnh sch tin t.
V chnh sch kinh t: Chnh ph nhim k mi c nhng ng thi ni lng chnh sch tin t thng qua iu
hnh th trng m.
Cc tc ng ti li sut: ng thi ni lng CSTT ch c th tr hon phn no tng ca li sut th trng,
kh c kh nng li sut ca cc ngn hng gim thm. Tuy nhin, kh nng li sut tng mnh tr li cng khng
nhiu. Li sut trong thi gian ti s tng i n nh.
V t gi: cc p lc i vi t gi ang tng ln nh l h qu tt yu ca Chnh sch tin t c ni lng. Tuy
vy, vi bi cnh kinh t v m hin ti, cc iu chnh t gi (nu c) s khng tc ng qu tiu cc i vi th
trng nh cc ln iu chnh trong cc nm kinh t v m bt n trc y.
Th trng chng khon
Cui cng th sau 3 nm, VNINDEX cng chinh phc thnh cng mc khng c mnh 640, hnh thnh mc gi
cao nht trong vng 8 nm, to ra tm l hng phn v k vng vo mt cn sng ln ca th trng. Tuy vy
theo quan st, mt b phn khng nh nh u t vn ang t ra nghi ng v thn trng khi VNINDEX c mt
chui tng gi di v mnh trong vng 6 thng qua m khng c nhng on tch ly di. Quan im ca chng
ti i vi th trng c th xut hin nhng dao ng mnh hn sau khi chinh phc nhng nh cao mi.
Kch bn chnh ca chng ti vi VNINDEX l th trng s tng ln mc 670 sau c th iu chnh v mc
605. Kch bn ph v kh quan hn l th trng s khng iu chnh v tin n mc 720 im ngay trong
Q3/2016.
Trin vng mt s nhm ngnh 6 thng cui nm
Ngnh Ngn hng - KH QUAN: mc tiu tng trng tn dng 18-20% cho nm 2016 tng i kh thi.
Bi ton quan trng i vi cc ngn hng l nhu cu tng vn p ng nhu cu tng trng v m
bo tiu ch an ton v vn.
Ngnh Du kh - S khng c t bin: gi du hi phc mnh trong 6 thng u nm tuy nhin mi

hi vng v mt s bng n v gi du trong nm nay ht. D bo gi du WTI cui nm s dao ng
mc 45-50 USD/thng.
Ngnh Chng khon KH QUAN: k vng th trng nh gi ng hn v kt qu kinh doanh ca

nhm ngnh chng khon khi th trng tng mnh c v im s v thanh khon so vi cng k.
Nhm ngnh Bt ng sn Khu cng nghip: Chng ti nhn nh cc DN KCN s c t tng trng
mnh trong vng 1-2 nm ti da vo trin vng tng trng vn FDI qua cc Hip nh thng mi t do
(FTA), ngun lao ng gi r v kh nng linh hot trong cc sn phm cung cp cho th trng.
Nhm ngnh Bt ng sn Nh KH QUAN: ngun cung di do, thanh khon tt. Phn khc trung
cp ln ngi nh nhu cu mua cn h gia tng mnh.
Nhm ngnh VLXD Gch p lt KH QUAN: hng li nh th trng BS si ng, trin vng tng
trng tt dnh cho nhng doanh nghip nhanh chng gia tng u t m rng sn xut.
www.vndirect.com.vn
BCCL Q3/2016 Kinh t th gii
I. KINH T TH GII
1. Tng trng kinh t
Tng trng kinh t (2013-2018f)
a. Cc t chc nghin cu ln u h d bo tng trng kinh

t ton cu nm 2016
Title:
5,00%
Source:
Trong bo co mi nht
ca mnh, World Bank v IMF u h d bo
tng trng kinh t ton cu trong nm 2016 so vi nhng con s d
bo a ra na nm trc . C th, World Bank h d bo tng
trng ton cu trong nm 2016 mc 2,4% (thp hn 0,5% so vi
d bo a ra hi thng 1/2016) v khng i so vi mc tng trng
ng tht vng ca nm 2015. Trc , IMF trong bo co Trin
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
vng Kinh t Th gii (World Economic Outlook) ra ngy 12/04 cng
h d bo tng trng kinh t ton cu trong nm 2016 xung
3,2%, gim 0,2% so vi d bo a ra hi thng 1/2016.
4,00%
3,00%
2,00%
1,00%
0,00%
2013
2014
2015
2016f
2017f
2018f
Nhm nn KT pht trin

Nhm nn KT ang pht trin
Th gii
Ngun: World Bank

D bo ca WB a ra trong bo co Trin vng ton cu T6/2016
Chnh lch vi d bo a ra thng

1/2016 (%)
Tng trng GDP (%)
Ch tiu
Nm
2013
2014
2015e
2016f
2017f
2018f
2015e
2016f
2017f
2018f
Th gii
2,4
2,6
2,4
2,4
2,8
-0,5
-0,3
-0,1
I. Nn kinh t pht trin
1,1
1,7
1,8
1,7
1,9
1,9
-0,1
-0,5
-0,2
-0,1
1,5
2,4
2,4
1,9
2,2
2,1
-0,1
-0,8
-0,2
-0,1
EU
-0,3
0,9
1,6
1,6
1,6
1,5
0,1
-0,1
-0,1
-0,1
Nht Bn
1,4
-0,1
0,6
0,5
0,5
0,7
-0,2
-0,8
-0,4
-0,6
II. Nn kinh t ang mi ni & ang pht trin
4,7
4,2
3,4
3,5
4,4
4,7
-0,6
-0,3
-0,2
1. Nhm cc nc xut khu
3,2
2,1
0,2
0,4
2,4
0,1
-1,2
-0,8
-0,3
2. Nhm cc nc khc
5,9
5,9
5,9
5,8
5,7
5,8
-0,1
-0,1
-0,1
III. Nhm cc nc ng Thi Bnh Dng
7,1
6,8
6,5
6,3
6,2
6,1
0,1
-0,1
Trung Quc
7,7
7,3
6,9
6,7
6,5
6,3
-0,2
Lo
8,5
7,5
6,9
0,6
0,1
-0,1
In--n-xi-a
5,6
4,8
5,1
5,3
5,5
0,1
-0,2
-0,2
Thi Lan
2,7
0,8
2,8
2,5
2,6
0,3
0,5
0,2
0,3
Phi-lp-pin
7,1
6,1
5,8
6,4
6,2
6,2
My-an-ma
8,5
8,5
7,8
8,4
8,3
0,5
-0,1
-0,2
Cam-pu-chia
7,4
7,1
6,9
6,8
6,8
0,1
Vit Nam
5,4
6,7
6,2
6,3
6,3
0,2
-0,4
0,3
Ngun: World Bank
b. Hu ht cc th trng u phi i mt vi ri ro tng trng

chm li
Cc nn kinh t ang tng trng chm
Ngun: World Bank
www.vndirect.com.vn
Khi cc nn kinh t pht trin: D bo tng trng GDP ca

khi mc 1,7% trong nm 2016 (ngun World Bank), thp hn
0,5% so vi d bo a ra trc v gim 0,1% so vi s thc
hin nm 2015. Cc ri ro c th cn tr tng trng phi k
n (1) u t chm ci thin, (2) s khng chc chn v tc ng
ca cc chnh sch iu hnh kinh t, (3) xut khu chm phn
nh nhu cu chm ci thin. Trong : M, EU v Nht Bn c
mc d bo tng trng GDP tng ng l 1,9%, 1,6% v 0,5%
(ln lt gim 0,8%; 0,1% v 0,8% so vi d bo a ra trc
theo World Bank).
Khi cc nn kinh t mi ni v ang pht trin (EMDEs): D
bo tng trng GDP ca khi mc 3,5% trong nm 2016
(ngun World Bank), gim 0,6% so vi s d bo a ra trc
v ch nhnh hn 0,1% so vi mc thp ca nm 2015. Cc ri ro
4
nh hng tiu cc n phc hi c th k n nh (1) hot

ng sn xut yu (2) tng trng u t chm li c bit ti cc
quc gia xut khu rng hng ha c bn, (3) iu kin th trng
tin t tht cht hn, (4) dng vn u t nc ngoi thp, (5) nn
kinh t Trung Quc tip tc iu chnh nh hng mnh n nhu
cu i vi cc mt hng c bn phc v sn xut cng nghip.
Tng quan li, chng ti c th miu t

bi cnh tng trng kinh t ton cu
hin nay qua mt on vn ngn sau:
Sau 8 nm k t cuc khng hong ti
chnh th gii nm 2008, tng trng kinh
t th gii vn duy tr di mc tim nng
vi mt tc chm chp v ng tht
vng b t chp nhng b in php ni lng
tin t cha tng c trong lch s ca cc
Ngn hng Trung ng (NHTW) ln trn
th gii nh FED, ECB, BOJ. Tng trng
chm din ra trong mt thi gian qu di
v iu ang lm nn kinh t th gii
phi i mt vi nhiu ri ro hn trong
tng lai gn .
Trong khi cc nn kinh t mi ni v ang pht trin, nhm cc

nc xut khu hng ha chu nh hng tiu cc mnh hn c.
D bo tng trng ca nhm ny ch t 0,4% trong nm 2016,
gim 1,2% so vi d bo hi thng 1/2016 v nhnh hn 0,2% so
vi mc thp nht l 0,2% (nm 2015) k t sau cuc khng
hong ti chnh 2008. Trong khi , nhm cc quc gia nhp khu
hng ha s tip tc c hng li t gi hng ha thp mc d
mc hng li t hn so vi cc tnh ton v k vng trc .
Tng trng ca nhm ny s duy tr mc 5,7-5,8% t nay n
nm 2018.
Trong khi ny, tng trng GDP ca Trung Quc c d bo
t 6,7% (gim 0,2% so vi nm 2015) v lm dy ln lo ngi nn
kinh t Trung Quc ang h cnh cng.
Khi cc nn kinh t km pht trin: D bo tng trng kinh
t trong nm 2016 mc 5,3%, gim 0,9% so vi d bo a ra
hi thng 1/2016 do nhng lo ngi v cc thch thc chnh tr v
tnh hnh an ninh mt s quc gia trong khi.
Nh vy, rt kh chng ta c th tm thy mt vi im sng trong

bc tranh tng trng ton cu nm 2016. Th trng ln duy nht
m chng ti thy r s ci thin v tng trng trong nm nay l n
. y l mt th trng ang ni ln v nhp khu hng ha ca th
gii v s c hng li trong mt vi nm ti nh gi c hng ha
mc thp. Theo World Bank, nn kinh t n d bo tng trng
mc 7,6%-7,7% trong giai on 2016-2018.
2. Brexit l c sc ln i vi th trng ti chnh ton cu
a. Kt qu cuc trng cu dn v Brexit
Theo kt qu c cng b trong ngy 24/06, phe ng h ri khi EU
dnh c phn thng vi t l l 51,9%. Trong c s chia r
rt ln gia cc vng min, gia nhm ngi gi v tr. T l ng h
li EU p o ti khu vc pha Bc v th London, c bit l ti
Scotland, trong khi cc c tri khu vc pha Nam, x Wales mun ri
khi EU. Cc thng k cng cho thy 75% ngi tr tui la chn
li EU, trong khi 69% ngi gi mun Anh khng cn l thnh vin
ca cng ng EU.
b. Phn ng ca th trng ti chnh ton cu
Th trng chng khon: Cc ch s ln nh FTSE100 (-4,87%),
Nikkei 225 (-8,1%), Hang Seng (-4,71%), DAX (-6,24%), S&P 500
future gim xung 1.999,12 im (-5,06%).
Th trng tin t cng phn ng tc th, Bng Anh gim gi k
lc so vi USD, chm mc thp nht k t nm 1985 (gim
khong 10%), Euro cng gim mnh, ln u tin k t nm 2013
ng Yn vt mc 100 Yn i 1 USD.
Th trng hng ha: Gi du WTI v Brent gim xung 47,97 v
48,70 USD/thng (tng ng vi -4,27% v -4,34%).
www.vndirect.com.vn
Cc bc Anh ri EU
c.
Dng tin tm n cc ti sn an ton trnh ri ro, gi vng c

t tng mnh ln 1.317,2 USD/oz (+4,28%). Tri phiu Bund v
CBOE 10 nm tng ln lt l 0,7% v 3,2%.
nh gi nhanh tc ng ca Brexit n th trng ti chnh
ton cu
Tc ng ca Brexit i vi th trng ti chnh ton cu l rt ln v

kh c th o lng c ht trong ngn hn
Mi lo ngi ln nht hu Brexit l kh nng s xy ra cc phn

ng dy chuyn trong ni khi EU, dn ti cc cuc trng cu dn
khc ti an Mch, Php, Italia.
Th trng tin t s chu tc ng ln, c bit l ng Bng v
ng Euro s chu p lc gim so vi ng USD v ng JPY.
Th trng chng khon Anh v Chu u s km hp dn hn do
tim n ri ro bin ng cao. Mt s c quan xp hng tn nhim
uy tn nh Moodys, Standard & Poors, Fitch tuyn b hoc
ang xem xt kh nng h bc tn nhim ca Anh v mt s quc
gia khc trong EU sau v Brexit.
FED c kh nng tr hon tng li sut t nht n cuc hp thng
9/2016.
Ngun: BBC
Tc ng dy chuyn ca Brexit i vi cc nc khc trong khu vc
Ngun: Bloomberg
www.vndirect.com.vn
d. nh gi nhanh tc ng ca Brexit n Vit Nam

T trng hng ha xut khu ca Vit Nam
v Anh
15%
Theo Tng cc Thng k nhn nh, vic nc Anh ri khi EU s tc

ng mnh n EU, M v cc th trng ln ca chu u nh Nht
Bn, Singapore cn vi Vit Nam, mc nh hng v mt kinh t
Title:
s khng ln.
Source:
5%
37%
6%
7%
Chng ti ng tnh vi quan im trn ca Tng cc Thng k do th

trng Anh ch chim khong 2,5% tng kim ngch xut khu ca Vit
Nam v 15% kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam vo EU.
15%
15%
in thoi v cc linh kin

Hng dt may
Giy dp cc loi
My vi tnh, SP in t v linh kin
G v sn phm g
Thy sn
Khc
Cc ngnh xut khu ch lc vo Anh nh in thoi, linh kin in

t, my tnh, thy sn, dt may, da giy, sn phm g c th b nh
hng tiu cc nhng mc khng ln.
Ngoi ra, Hip nh Thng mi t do gia Vit Nam vi EU trong
c nhng m phn v cam kt trc y vi Anh c th b tc ng
v c th phi cn nhc v xem xt li mt s iu khon.
Cc doanh nghip nim yt c hng li l cc doanh nghip ang
vay n bng ng EUR nhiu nh NT2, HT1, BCC.
3. ng thi chnh sch tin t ca cc NHTW ln trn th gii
Ngun: Tng cc Thng k
Vi trin vng tng trng cha c nhiu ci thin trong nm 2016 v

ri ro trn th trng ti chnh th gii tng cao hu Brexit, cc NHTW
s phi rt thn trng trong cc bc i tip theo. Theo chng ti,
NHTW Chu u (ECB) v NHTW Nht Bn (BOJ) s tip tc m rng
hn na cc chnh sch ni lng tin t ca mnh trong khi NHTW M
(FED) s rt cn trng trong cc quyt nh tng li sut ti y.
a. Cng c o lng chnh sch tin t ca FED: Li sut m
nh gi tc ng ca cc chnh sch tin t ang ngy cng tr nn
thch thc hn i vi cc hc gi kinh t. Sau cuc khng hong ti
chnh nm 2008, y ban th trng m M (FOMC) h li sut iu
hnh (Fed Funds Rate) v mc 0-0,25%. Do li sut b gii hn mc
sn 0% v khng th h thp xung di 0%, h tr nn kinh t
M, FOMC tin hnh cc bin php kch thch phi truyn thng khc
nh cc hng dn trc tip (forward guidance-vit tt l FG) v c
bit l cc gi ni lng nh lng (Quantitative Easing-vit tt l QE).
Cc gi ni lng nh lng thc t m rng hn na cc u i
ca chnh sch tin t i vi nn kinh t M. Tuy nhin, do li sut
iu hnh b gii hn mc 0%, cc nh kinh t rt kh khn trong
vic nh gi cc tc ng ca cc bin php ni lng nh lng i
vi th trng ti chnh v nn kinh t M. Do , h ngh ra cch
nh gi chnh sch tin t trong iu kin bt bnh thng thng qua
mt ch tiu kinh t mi l li sut m (Shadow Fed Fund Rate). C
hai ch tiu li sut m c s dng hin nay, tuy nhin trong bo
co ny, chng ti ch cp n ch tiu li sut m Wu-Xia do tnh
cht thng dng v chnh xc hn.
Vy li sut m nn hiu nh th no?
www.vndirect.com.vn
Li sut m Wu-Xia (Wu-Xia Shadow Rate-vit tt l WXSR) l

mt ch tiu do Ph Gio S Jing Cynthia Wu ti trng Kinh
doanh Booth thuc i hc Chicago v nh kinh t hc Fan Dora
Xia a ra nhm nh gi cc tc ng kinh t ca FED khi thc

thi cc bin php ni lng nh lng QE nh hng nh th no
n li sut sau khi ct gim li sut iu hnh v mc gn 0%
k t t thng 12/2008.
WXSR c tnh ton da trn tc ng i vi nn kinh t ca
cc chnh sch ni lng tin t thng thng v bt thng (QE,
FG) phn nh nh th no trong li sut iu hnh ca FED nu
li sut ny c th m. WXSR gim xung di 0% v to cch
bit vi li sut iu hnh khi FED bt u thc hin cc gi ni
lng nh lng QE lm gim p lc tng i vi cc li sut di
hn v tng thm cc d a h tr v mt chnh sch tin t i
vi nn kinh t.
Din bin li sut m, li sut iu hnh ca FED v ch s sc mnh ng USD
Ngun: Bloomberg
b. Qua nh gi li sut m, chng ta c th nhn thy FED ang

hnh ng mnh hn nhiu so vi cm nhn ca th trng
Trong :
i: li sut iu hnh danh ngha
p: lm pht thc t
p*: lm pht mc tiu
y: logarit ca GDP thc t
y*: logarit ca GDP tim nng, c xc nh
bng xu hng tuyn tnh
FED bt u ngng m rng chnh sch tin t ca mnh t gia nm

2014 khi dng gi QE. WXSR tng mnh t n nay v gn
v mc ngang bng vi li sut iu hnh cho thy tc ng ca cc
bin php ni lng nh lng trc y ti mt bng li sut trn th
trng ang dn c xa b hon ton v m ca chnh sch
tin t ang c FED thu hp mnh hn nhiu so vi th trng c
th thy qua ng thi tng li sut iu hnh t 0,25% ln 0,5%.
c.
FED iu hnh li sut nh th no
FED thng da trn mt s cng thc c bn iu hnh chnh

sch tin t, trong ni ting nht l Quy tc Taylor sau:
y-y* = output gap

www.vndirect.com.vn
i p = +(p p*) + (y y*) hay i p = +(p p*) + (output gap)

d. T l lm pht v sc khe ca th trng lao ng l hai yu
t c nh hng ln nht n quyt nh nng li sut ca
FED
Da trn cng thc Taylor, cc nh kinh t M d ng tnh
ton mc nh hng ca mt s ch tiu v lm pht v th trng
vic lm n cc quyt nh iu chnh li sut ca FED thng qua hai
cng thc sau:
Trong :
ffr: li sut iu hnh danh ngha ca FED
r: constant term
p: lm pht thc t c nh gi bng ch s
gi c PCE li 12 thng ca M
ouput gap: chnh lch gia sn lng thc t
v sn lng tim nng. cng thc ny,
output gap c o bng chnh lnh gia t l
tht nghip thc t v t l tht nghip tim nng
ca M c cng b bi Vn phng Ngn sch
Quc hi Hoa K (CBO)
Cng thc 1: ffr p* = p(ffr p*)+(1-p)[r + (p p*) + (output gap)]+

e v
Cng thc 2: ffr p* = p(ffr p*)+(1-p)[r + (p p*) + Level +
Momentum] + e
Thng qua tnh ton, cc nh kinh t hc a ra mc tc
ng ca tng ch tiu n thay i trong li sut iu hnh ca
FED nh bng sau
Mc tc ng ca tng ch tiu n thay i trong li sut iu hnh ca FED
nh bng sau
Level (Level of activity - mc hot ng) v

Momentum (xu hng bin bng) l hai trong s
24 ch tiu thuc b ch s iu kin th trng
lao ng M (LCMI) c cng b bi Ngn
hng d tr lin bang Kansas. Hai ch tiu ny
phn nh 81% bin ng ca ton b r ch s
trn
Ch tiu
Mc nh hng
Lm pht
Vi mi 1% tng ca lm pht trn mc lm pht mc tiu l 2% s

ko theo 1,3% n 2,2% tng thm ca li sut iu hnh ty thuc
vo cc bin s khc trn th trng lao ng.
T l tht nghip
Vi mi 1% tng thm ca t l tht nghip trn mc t l tht nghip

mc tiu 6% s dn ti s st gim 1,8% trong li sut iu hnh ca
FED.
Mc hot ng
ca th trng lao
ng
Vi mi 1% ci thin ca ch tiu nh gi mc hot ng ca th

trng lao ng M (Level of activity) s i km vi 1,6% st gim
ca t l tht nghip v dn ti 2,3% tng thm trong li sut iu
hnh.
Momentum (Xu
hng bin ng)
Vi mi 1% tng ln ca ch tiu Momentum s dn n 2,4% tng

ln i vi li sut iu hnh.
Ngun: Ngn hng d tr lin bang Kansas, VNDIRECT
e. D bo kh nng nng li sut ca FED trong na cui nm

2016
Trong cuc hp din ra t 14/06-15/06 ca FOMC, FED quyt nh
gi nguyn li sut iu hnh mc 0,25%-0,50% da trn nhn nh
cn trng v nhng din bin tri chiu trn th trng lao ng M v
cc quan ngi v tnh hnh bt n trn th trng ti chnh th gii nh
v Brexit (ngi dn Anh b phiu xem xt ri EU), hay tng trng
chm li ti Trung Quc.
Cp nht mt s ch tiu v m M c nh hng quan trng ti
quyt nh tng li sut ca FED:
www.vndirect.com.vn
Ch s gi tiu dng c nhn li (core PCE) tng 1,6% (T5/2016)

vn cn khong cch so vi lm pht mc tiu l 2%.
Th trng lao ng M vi nhng s liu tri chiu: T l tht
nghip: 4,7% (T5/2016) ci thin so vi mc 5% cui nm 2015.
Tuy nhin, t l tht nghip gim n t mt b phn ngi rt
khi lc lng lao ng. S lng vic lm phi nng nghip mi
c to ra trong T5/2016 ch t 38.000 vic lm, l mc thp
nhp trong gn 6 nm qua v ch bng so vi d bo trc .
9
Lng c bn: tng -0,1% MoM v 2,5% YoY (T4/2016).

Tng trng GDP: tng 0,8% (Q1/2016) cao hn mc tng 0,6%
(Q1/2015).
D bo ca FOMC
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
GDP thc (%)

CPI/PCE (%)
T l tht nghip (%)
2,2
2,08
8,08
1,5
1,48
7,38
2,4
1,63
6,17
2,4
0,13
5,28
2,2
1,2
4,7
2,1
1,9
4,6
2
2
4,5
Ngun: Bloomberg
D bo v li sut iu hnh ca cc thnh
vin FOMC*
Li sut
d bo
4,000%
3,875%
3,750%
3,675%
3,500%
3,375%
3,250%
3,125%
3,000%
2,875%
2,750%
2,675%
2,500%
2,375%
2,250%
2,125%
2,000%
1,875%
1,750%
1,675%
1,500%
1,375%
1,250%
1,125%
1,000%
0,897%
0,750%
0,675%
0,500%
2016F
2017F
2018F Di hn
2**
1
8
1
Quan im ca th trng v thi im FED nng li sut ti

y
Mt ch tiu thng c cc thnh vin trn th trng tham kho
l ch s CME Group 30 Day FED Fund Futures Price. Ch s ny
thng k d bo ca cc nh kinh t hc, nh giao dch, nh u t
trn th trng v thi im nng li sut trong cc ln hp ti ca
FED.
Kh nng FED tng li sut theo d bo ca CME Group

1
3
6
120%
100%
1
80%
1
1
1
5
4
60%
40%
20%
0%
0,25%
4
1
27-Jul
0,75%
21-Sep
1,00%
2-Nov
1,25%
14-Dec
1,50%
1,75%
2,00%
1-Feb
Ngun: CME Group, VNDIRECT tng hp
Theo nh ch s ny, cc thnh vin trn th trng ang k vng FED

s gi nguyn li sut trong na cui nm 2016. .
1
9
6
0,50%
* FOMC: y ban th trng t do M

** 2 thnh vin d bo li sut iu hnh t
3,75% trong di hn
Ngun: FOMC
Quan im ca Khi phn tch l FED s ch tng li sut duy nht

1 ln trong na cui nm nay. Nh vy, FED s ch tng li sut 1
ln trong nm 2016, so vi d bo 4 ln nng li sut hi u nm v
d bo 2 ln gn y ca th trng. Vic FED lin tip tr hon nng
li sut trong nm nay lin quan n nhiu yu t bn ngoi nh (1)
tng trng chm ca kinh t ton cu, c bit l Trung Quc, (2)
nhng ri ro trn th trng ti chnh th gii hu Brexit. Bn cnh ,
FED cng cn c thi gian xem xt mc chc chn v xu hng
phc hi ca kinh t M (th trng vic lm, lm pht,) c th
nh gi c cc tc ng i vi nn kinh t khi FED thay i chnh
sch. Chng ti nh gi cao bc i thn trng trong chnh sch ca
FED.
Chng ti cho rng nu cc ch s v m ca M tip tc tt ln
v nhng ri ro trn th trng ti chnh th gii c gim thiu
th FED c th nng li sut vo thng 12 ti. Vic FED nng li
sut nu xy ra trong thng 12 s c tc ng ti xu hng dng tin
v din bin th trng ti chnh ton cu trong na cui nm 2016.
i vi chnh sch tin t ca NHTW Nht Bn (BOJ) v NHTW
Chu u (ECB), chng ti cho rng xu hng chung vn l gi
nguyn hoc thm ch tng thm cc bin php ni lng tin t i
ph vi tnh hnh bt n trn th trng ti chnh ton cu v h tr
www.vndirect.com.vn
10
tng trng kinh t, lm pht, th trng lao ng t c cc mc

tiu di hn ra.
i vi chnh sch tin t ca NHTW Trung Quc (PBOC), chng ti
gi nguyn nhn nh t u nm l PBOC s tip tc s dng hai
cng c l (1) h t l d tr bt buc v (2) h t gi ng CNY
h tr nn kinh t.
Nht Bn: Trong 4T2016, BOJ dnh ra khong 80.000 t Yn

mua tri phiu nhm h tr nn kinh t tng trng v thot
khi tnh trng gim pht ko di 2 thp k. Tuy nhin, nhng n
lc trn ang vp phi tr ngi ln do vic ng Yn tng 16% so
vi USD k t u nm nay khin xut khu ca Nht Bn lin tc
st gim. World Bank cng h d bo tng trng GDP ca
Nht Bn trong nm 2016 xung 0,5%, gim 0,8% so vi d bo
a ra hi thng 1/2016. Trc tnh hnh , Th tng Shinzo
Abe ang c k hoch cng b chng trnh kch thch ti kha
mi tr gi 10.000 t Yn (tng ng 91 t USD). ng thi,
Thng c NHTW Nht Bn (BOJ) l ng Haruhiko Kuroda cng
tuyn b BOJ ang xem xt ni lng hn na chnh sch tin
t nu thy cn thit.
EU: Chng ti cho rng ECB s gi nguyn quy m ni lng hin
ti m cha vi tng thm cc bin php kch thch do (1) FED
hon l trnh tng li sut, (2) nn kinh t Chu u c du hiu
phc hi tt, (3) cn thm thi gian nh gi mc hiu qu ca
bin php ni lng hin nay. Theo , ECB s gi chng trnh
mua 80 t USD ti sn (gn 90 t USD) (ch yu l tri phiu
Chnh ph Khu vc s dng ng Euro Eurozone) hng thng
y li gim pht v kch thch tng trng kinh t.
Trung Quc: Nh nhn nh trong BCCL 2016 u nm nay,
Chng ti tip tc gi nguyn nhn nh NHTW Trung Quc
(PBOC) s tip tc s dng hai cng c l (1) h t l d tr bt
buc v (2) h t gi ng CNY h tr nn kinh t ang tng
trng gim tc. Tuy nhin, mc thay i s nh v trong tm
kim sot ca PBOC trnh to ra cc c sc ln cho th trng
ti chnh. Chng ti gi nguyn d bo t gi USD/CNY c th
tng ln mc 1USD=6,8CNY vo cui nm 2016 (BCCL 2016)
hin t gi USD/CNY ang l 1USD=6,682CNY.
4. Din bin dng tin u t v xu hng phn b ti sn trn

th gii
a. Din bin dng tin u t trong 4 thng u nm 2016
(4T2016)
Trong 4T2016, dng tin u t trn th gii tip tc v cc TTCK
ti Chu u tr gi gn 300 t USD bao gm c th trng c phiu v
tri phiu. Cc quc gia thu ht c dng tin ln nh c, Php,
, Anh Quc v mt s quc gia ti ng u. Dng tin chuyn hng
sang th trng Chu u do (1) cc yu t kinh t v m ca khu vc
ang dn ci thin, (2) ECB tip tc chng trnh ni lng nh lng
nhm kch thch tng trng, (3) nh gi th trng ang hp dn hn
so vi mt s th trng pht trin khc nh M, Nht Bn.
Ti M, ly k 4 thng u nm 2016, dng tin c xu hng mua
rng vi gi tr gn 60 t USD. Tuy nhin, trong thng 4/2016, dng
www.vndirect.com.vn
11
tin c xu hng rt rng gn 80 t USD do vic FED hon nng

li sut khin dng tin c xu hng quay tr li cc th trng c
ri ro cao hn nh TTCK Chu u v mt s th trng mi ni.
Ti Trung Quc xu hng ch o vn l tip tc bn rng. C th,
trong 5T2016, dng tin rt rng 343 t USD khi TTCK Trung
Quc (trong thng 5/2016 rt rng 62,4 t USD).
Tng m ua bn rng ca NT nc ngoi trn th gii (c c phiu v tri phiu)
trong 1H/2016 (t USD)
Quc gia
Ngy
Thng
Qu
YTD
12M
Trung Quc
31/05/2016
-62.400
-105.410
-343.020
-1.058.340
Pakistan
30/06/2016
74
60
-41
-286
Vit Nam
30/06/2016
-31
-79
-174
17.440
Chu
Chu M
Brazil
31/05/2016
6.558
4.792
11.230
Canada
31/05/2016
12.983
32.572
32.572
69.342
30/04/2016
-79.622
-79.622
59.214
304.805
Khu vc Chu u
30/04/2016
133.960
133.960
298.625
637.400
Php
30/04/2016
32.847
32.847
46.794
63.798
30/04/2016
52.469
52.469
97.871
263.569
30/04/2016
35.876
35.876
56.629
161.006
Ba Lan
30/04/2016
4.144
4.144
-2.752
11.422
B o Nha
30/04/2016
1.334
1.334
4.920
3.806
Th Nh K
30/04/2016
3.072
3.072
7.120
2.311
Anh Quc
31/03/2016
47.817
47.817
389.463
Emerging markets
Ngun: Bloomberg
b. D bo xu hng dng tin trong na cui nm 2016

Chng ti cho rng dng tin nng trn th trng c kh nng o
ngc trong 6 thng cui nm, chuyn t cc th trng v ti sn ri
ro cao sang cc th trng v ti sn t ri ro hn tr n, c bit l
th trng chng khon M bao gm ng USD, c phiu vn ha ln,
tri phiu Kho bc M, tri phiu doanh nghip xp hng u t, tri
phiu li sut cao. Mt s th trng chng khon khc cng c th
thu ht c dng tin vo trong na cui nm nh Canada, n
v mt s th trng mi ni ti Chu .
Da trn nhng nhn nh v tc tng trng kinh t chm ci
thin v kh nng FED s ch tng 1 ln li sut trong na cui nm
2016, chng ti d bo v xu hng u t trong thi gian ti nh
sau:
www.vndirect.com.vn
12
D bo din bin cc nhm ti sn trong 6 thng cui nm

Cc lp ti sn
chnh
C phiu
Tri phiu
Tin t
Phn lp ti sn
Quan im u t
C phiu
Trung tnh
Chng khon thu nhp c nh
Tch cc
Tin mt
Tiu cc
US - Vn ha ln
Tch cc
US - Vn ha nh
Trung tnh
Chu u (tr Anh)
Trung tnh
Anh
Tiu cc
Chu - Thi Bnh Dng (tr Nht Bn)
Trung tnh
Nht Bn
Tiu cc
Th trng mi ni
Trung tnh
US - Tn thc u t bt ng sn (REITs)
Trung tnh
Tri phiu Kho bc M
Tch cc
Tri phiu chnh ph Chu u (Euro core Bund)
Trung tnh
Tri phiu Chu u xp hng thp (Euro periphery)
Tch cc
Tri phiu chnh ph Anh (UK Gilts)
Tiu cc
Tri phiu chnh ph Nht
Tiu cc
Tri phiu chnh ph Canada
Trung tnh
Tri phiu chnh ph c
Tch cc
Tri phiu doanh nghip trong hng u t (Investment Grade)
Tch cc
Tri phiu doanh nghip M li sut cao (US high yield)
Tch cc
Tri phiu doanh nghip Chu u li sut cao (Euro high Yield)
Tch cc
Chng khon n th trng mi ni
Tiu cc
USD
Tng
EUR
Trung tnh
GBP
Gim
Gim
JPY
Ngun: VNDIRECT
5. D bo din bin gi hng ha na cui nm 2016

Nh nhn nh ca Khi Phn tch trong BCCL Q2 Gieo ht tt, gt
ma vng, gi hng ha th gii tip tc xu hng phc hi trong
Q2/2016. Ch s gi hng ha ca IMF tng tng cng 21% trong
Q2/2016 nh s dn dt ca du m vi mc tng 48%.
Ch s thng k gi hng ha ca IMF
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
IMF World Commodities Price Index
IMF Energy Price Index
IMF Metal Price Index
IMF Food Price Index
Ngun: IMF
www.vndirect.com.vn
13
a. Gi nng lng
Gi du tng 25% trong Q2/2016. Gi du dng nh tng sm
hn d bo khi tng ln vng 47-50USD/thng ngay trong Q2/2016,
tuy nhin vn nm trong vng gi d bo trc . Cc yu t ch
cht gip gi du phc hi mnh trong Q2/2016 c th k n nh (1)
FED tip tc hon tng li sut, (2) ngun cung ti Canada v Nigeria
bt ng st gim mnh do thin tai v tnh hnh chnh tr, (3) ngun
cung du phin ti M tip tc gim do gi du thp, (4) nhu cu
du m tip tc tng trng n nh (d bo thm 1,2 triu thng-1, 4
triu thng trong nm 2016), (5) tn kho du ti M bt u gim.
Din bin gi du (USD/thng)
Chng ti d bo, gi du s tip tc xu hng phc hi trong 2H/2016

tuy nhin mc phc hi s khng mnh nh thi gian qua do (1)
Title:
ngng 50-55USD/thng
l vng tm l quan trng, ti vng gi ny
Source:
nhiu nh khai thc du nh du phin, du nc su c th xem
xt quay tr li th trng, (2) sc p v vic FED nng li sut s
tng dn t nay n cui nm 2016, (3) trin vng tng trng kinh t
Please
in the
to have
them ln
entered
your report
vn chm chp khin
nhufill
cu
duvalues
m above
kh c
s tng
t in
bin,
(4)
tn kho du m tuy gim nhng vn mc cao.
70
60
50
40
30
Gi du WTI
05/16
04/16
03/16
02/16
01/16
12/15
11/15
10/15
09/15
08/15
07/15
06/15
20
Gi du Brent
Ngun: Bloomberg
Chng ti d bo gi du WTI v du Brent na cui nm 2016

ri vo khong 45-50 USD/thng. Gi du phc hi s gip cc
doanh nghip ngnh du kh c KQKD na cui nm tch cc hn so
vi 6 thng u nm nay.
b. Gi nng sn
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Bng
USD/lb
x1000 CNY/MT
Din bin m t s hng ha nng sn
Ch s o lng gi hng ha nng sn ca IMF tng 8% trong

Q2/2016 vi mc tng cc thng ln lt l 2,6%; 2,5% v 2,7%. Mc
Title:
tng trong Q2/2016 Source:
ca 3 nhm chnh l thc phm, ung, nguyn
liu th ln lt l 10,3%; 4%; 4%. Gi nng sn tng ch yu do tc
ng ca yu t thi tit, c bit l tnh hnh El Nino trong Q1/2016
v Q2/2016 khin sn lng st gim.
Thng k bin ng gi trong Q2/2016 ca m t s nng sn
ng
Ngun: Bloomberg
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Ly k so vi u
nm
Nng sn
2,60%
2,50%
2,70%
8,00%
Thc phm
3,00%
3,00%
4,00%
10,30%
ung
3,00%
-1,00%
2,00%
4,00%
Nguyn liu th
1,00%
3,00%
0,00%
4,00%
La m
3,00%
0,00%
-4,00%
-1,10%
Ng, bp
0%
3%
-3,00%
-0,10%
Go
-1%
2%
9,00%
10,10%
u tng
2,00%
8,00%
10,00%
21,20%
Du c
6,00%
8,00%
-5,00%
8,80%
ng
16,00%
-2,00%
8,00%
22,80%
C ph Arabica
5,00%
-2,00%
1,00%
3,90%
C ph Robusta
3,00%
5,00%
4,00%
12,50%
Bng
-2,00%
6,00%
2,00%
6,00%
Cacao
5,00%
5,00%
1,00%
11,40%
Cao su
15,00%
19,00%
-3,00%
32,70%
Ngun: Bloomberg
www.vndirect.com.vn
14
Trin vng gi hng ha nng s n trong 6 thng cui nm 2016

Nng sn D bo
La m
Tn kho cao nht trong vng 29 nm qua, d bo gi 2H/2016 iu chnh nh
Cacao
D bo gi 2H/2016 tng nh do xut khu t B Bin Ng gim
C ph
Gi c ph Robusta 2H/2016 d bo tng nh do nhu cu ln ti M v Nht Bn
Ng, bp
D bo gi 2H/2016 t thay i
u tng D bo gi 2H/2016 tip tc tng do sn lng ti Nam M gim

Ma ng Thiu ht cung trong nin v 2015-2016 c th ln ti 6,8 triu tn, d bo gi tip tc tng
Du c
D bo gi 2H/2016 c kh nng iu chnh nh do ngun cung tng
Bng
Gi 2H/2016 s vn ng tch cc
Cao su
Gi cao su d bo s tip tc tng do thi tit khc nghip khin cung gim
Ngun: FAO, USDA, VNDIRECT
c.
Din bin gi kim loi
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
800
600
Ch s o lng gi hng ha kim loi ca IMF tng 4,5% trong

Q2/2016 vi mc tng cc thng ln lt l 6,5%; 1,6%; -3,4%; do
nhu cu tng ln ti Trung Quc.
Title:
Source:
Thng k bin ng gi
trong Q2/2016 ca m t s kim loi chnh trn th gii
200
Kim loi
6,50%
1,60%
-3,40%
4,50%
Qung st
20,00%
7,00%
-8,00%
18,10%
05/16
03/16
01/16
11/15
09/15
07/15
05/15
03/15
01/15
11/14
09/14
07/14
400
Gi kim loi
Nhm
0,00%
Km (Phi- USD/lb)
ng
8,00%
-2,00%
-4,00%
1,60%
Qung st (Phi CNY/MT)
Niken
2%
2%
-2,00%
2,00%
ng (Tri-USD/lb)
Thic
5,00%
1,00%
-2,00%
3,90%
Km
5,00%
3,00%
1,00%
Source: Bloomberg
-1,00%
2,00%
Please fill in the3,00%
values above to have
them entered in your
report
9,20%
Ngun: Bloomberg
Nhn chung gi c kim loi c d bo s tip tc xu hng tng gi

trong na cui nm 2016 v u nm 2017.
Trin vng gi kim loi trong 6 thng cui nm 2016
Kim loi
D bo
Qung st D bo gi Q3/2016 gim 4% do nhu cu ti Trung Quc chm li

Nhm
Gi nhm Q3/2016 d bo tng nh 1%-2% do nhu cu ci thin
ng
Gi ng Q3/2016 s t bin ng
Niken
Gi niken Q3/2016 d bo tng nh 1%-2%
Thic
Gi thic Q3/2016 s t bin ng
Km
Gi km Q3/2016 d bo tng 4% nh nhu cu tng
Ngun: VNDIRECT
www.vndirect.com.vn
15
BCCL Q3/2016 Kinh t Vit Nam
Tng trng GDP 6 thng (2013-2016)
1. Tng trng kinh

t
Title:
6,28%
8,0%
4,90%
5,18%
II. KINH T VIT NAM
5,52%
Source:
Qu 2/2016, tng trng kinh t t 5,55%.Tnh chung 6 thng u

nm 2016, tng trng GDP khong 5,52%, thp hn kt qu cng
k 2015 (6,32%). Kt qu tng trng GDP trong na u nm ph
hp vi nhn nh ca chng ti a ra ti thi im cui nm 2015.
Vi thc trng tng trng nh trn, nhiu kh nng tng trng nm
2016 s kh t mc tiu 6,7% m Chnh ph ra.
3,0%
-2,0%
6T/2013 6T/2014 6T/2015 6T/2016

Nng nghip
Cng nghip v xy dng
Dch v
Tng
Ngun: GSO
Tng trng 6 thng theo ngnh cng

nghip (2013-2016)
12,0%
10,0%
8,0%
6,0%
4,0%
2,0%
0,0%
-2,0%
-4,0%
Chng ti d bo tng trng GDP nm 2016 s khong 6,4% - 6,5%

(gim so vi mc 6,75% a ra u nm). Trong trng hp c
nhng ng thi ni lng chnh sch mnh m (c bit l chnh
sch tin t) v sn lng khai thc du th tng tr li th tng
trng nm 2016 hon ton c kh nng vt 6,5%. (Nu Chnh ph
tng khai thc thm 2 triu tn du trong nm 2016 s ng gp 0,6%
vo mc tng trng chung).
T pha cung, nguyn nhn tng trng chm li trong 6 thng qua
ch yu xut pht t kh khn ca nhm ngnh nng, lm nghip,
thy sn v ngnh khai
Title: khong (c bit l du th). Na u nm
Source:
nay, nhm ngnh nng,
lm, thy sn tng trng m, vi mc gim
0,18% so vi cng k 2015 (cng k tng 2,22%); trong khi ngnh
khai khong gim 2,2% (ch yu do khai thc du th gim 6,1%).
6T/2013
Khai khong
6T/2014
6T/2015
Ch bin ch to
6T/2016
Xy dng
Ngun: GSO
Chng ti c tnh s suy gim ca 2 nhm ngnh trn lm

gim khong 0,8% mc tng trng chung ca nn kinh t trong
6 thng qua. Do , trong thi gian cn li ca nm 2016, khi cc
yu t trn c ci thin (cng vi kh nng CSTT s c ni
lng mnh) th tng trng nm 2016 hon ton c kh nng vt
6,5%.
Nhn nh trn c da trn s ci thin theo thi gian ca cc yu
t t pha cung m chng ti quan st c. Tng trng ca nhm
ngnh nng nghip sau khi suy gim 1,31% trong Qu 1 tng
trng tr li trong Qu 2 vi mc tng 0,36%. Nh vy, c th thy
nhm ngnh nng nghip qua giai on kh khn nht do nh
hng bt li bi yu t thi tit. Ngnh cng nghip ch bin, ch
to ngnh chim t trng cao nht trong khu vc sn xut cng
nghip, t c mc tng trng tng ng 6 thng u nm
2015 (10,1%) sau khi tng chm hn cng k trong Qu 1.
Bin ng PMI
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
52,6
Ngun: Nikkei, Markit
www.vndirect.com.vn
Tng trng ca ngnh ch bin, ch to c k vng s tip tc khi

dng vn FDI na u nm nay tng trng rt kh quan. Ch s PMI
Title:
cng cho thy du Source:
hiu phc hi r nt (thng 5 PMI t 52,6 im
cao nht trong khong 1 nm tr li y).
Ngoi kt qu tch cc ca 2 nhm ngnh c du hiu suy gim trong
Q1, nhng ngnh tng
trng tt trong 3 thng u nm tip tc xu
hng tng trng kh quan. Ngnh dch v tng kh mnh so vi 6
thng u nm 2015 (6,32% so vi 5,86%), ngnh xy dng tng
8,8%. y u l cc mc tng trng cao nht trong khong 5
nm tr li y.
16
T pha cu, u t ton x hi tip tc gia tng mnh m, c bit l

u t ca khu vc FDI v khu vc ngoi quc doanh. T l u
t/GDP 6 thng u nm t 32,9% tng so vi mc 32,6% trong Q1
v 31,1% cng k nm 2015. Hot ng u t tip tc khi sc nh
chi ph u t thp (bao gm li sut v cc u i thu) v quan trng
nht, l k vng ca doanh nghip vo s pht trin ca nn kinh
t gia tng. Trong 3 khu vc, ngoi khu vc Nh nc b nh hng
bi ngn sch kh khn th khu vc ngoi quc doanh v FDI u cho
thy nhng tn hiu kh kh quan vi mc tng ln lt l 14,7% v
15,6%.
C cu FDI 6T/2016
V u t FDI, tng vn ng k ca cc d n cp mi v vn cp
b sung t 11,3 t USD, tng 105,4% so vi cng k nm trc. Vn
Title:
FDI thc hin 6 thng
u nm 2016 c tnh t 7,3 t USD, tng
Source:
15,1% so vi cng k nm 2015. Ngnh cng nghip ch bin, ch
to thu ht u t nc ngoi ln nht vi s vn ng k t 8,1 t
USD, chim 71,5% tng
k;above
hotto ng
kinh
doanh
btreport
ng
Pleasevn
fill in ng
the values
have them
entered
in your
sn t 604,8 triu USD, ng th hai v thu ht FDI.
23,1%
5,4%
71,5%
CN ch bin ch to
Kinh doanh BS
Khc
FDI gii ngn v ng k 2011-2016
T ng
Ngun: B K hoch - u t
25
20
15
10
0
2011
2012
2013
FDI gii ngn
2014
2015
6T2016
FDI ng k
Ngun: B K hoch - u t
Khng c tch cc nh cu phn u t, tiu dng dn c tng

trng chm hn, iu ny hon ton d hiu, khi nhng nm khng
hong va qua khin cho thu nhp ca dn chng b nh hng
nng n. Cng vi s tng trng tr li ca nn kinh t v li
nhun ca doanh nghip gia tng th tiu dng dn c s sm
phc hi. Trong xu hng chung , mt s ngnh nhy vi thu
nhp ca ngi dn phc hi trc v tng trng rt mnh nh
ngnh t, trang sc
Tm li, xu hng phc hi ca nn kinh t vn tip tc, cc tc ng
tiu cc ch yu n t cc yu t ma v. V din bin ca cc chnh
sch trong thi gian cn li ca nm 2016, Chng ti d bo rng
cc chnh sch s c ni lng hn na c bit l chnh sch
tin t.
www.vndirect.com.vn
17
2. Lm pht
CPI thng 6/2016 tng 2,4% so vi cng k 2015, bnh qun 6 thng
u nm 2016 tng 1,72% so vi cng k 2015 trong khi Lm pht
c bn thng 6 tng 1,88% so vi cng k. Nh vy, CPI tip tc xu
hng tng tr li v tng vt lm pht c bn.
Bin ng CPI v lm pht c bn so vi cng k
3,0%
2,5%
2,0%
1,5%
1,0%
0,5%
0,0%
-0,5%
Lm pht c bn (loi tr gi y t, lng thc, nng lng)
CPI
Ngun: GSO
V bin ng ca cc nhm mt hng trong r hng ha tnh CPI, CPI

6 thng u nm tng do mt s nguyn nhn ch yu sau: (i) Gi
dch v y t, hc ph tng do c quan qun l iu chnh; (ii) gi cc
mt hng lng thc, thc phm, nng lng tng.
Theo quan st ca chng ti, cc yu t khin cho lm pht tng thp
trong thi gian gn y ang dn yu i, c bit l cc yu t lin
quan n chi ph y (nh gi nng lng, gi lng thc, thc
phm). Trong khi , cc nhn t tc ng tiu cc n lm pht
ang c xu hng mnh ln, c bit l cc yu t tin t (Ni
lng chnh sch tin t).
Trong thi gian cn li ca nm 2016, chng ti khng qu lo lng v
tc ng tiu cc t cc yu t chi ph y khi gi du kh c kh nng
tng mnh so vi mc gi hin ti (khong 45-50 USD/thng), trong
khi gi cc hng ha dch v cng nh y t v gio dc cng vi gi
in c yu cu iu hnh thn trng hn trong phn cn li ca
nm 2016. Hn na, chng ti cng thy rng, gi cc mt hng trn
tim cn vi gi th trng do kh nng tng mnh l thp. Cc
lo ngi ca chng ti i vi lm pht n t chnh sch tin t,
c bit khi chng ti d bo rng CSTT s c ni lng quyt
lit trong 6 thng cui nm. Khi , lm pht nm 2016 c d
bo khong 4-5%.
3. Xut nhp khu
6 thng u nm, Vit Nam xut siu 1,5 t USD, trong khu vc
kinh t trong nc nhp siu 9,7 t USD; khu vc c vn u t nc
ngoi xut siu 11,2 t USD. Khu vc FDI tip tc chim khong 70%
gi tr xut khu ca Vit Nam, trong tng kim ngch 82,2 t USD gi
tr xut khu na u nm th khu vc kinh t trong nc t 23,7 t
USD (tng 3,3%); khu vc c vn u t nc ngoi (k c du th)
t 58,5 t USD (tng 6,9%).
www.vndirect.com.vn
18
Xut nhp khu v cn cn thng m i 2010-2016 (t USD)

180
14
160
12
140
10
120
100
80
60
40
20
-2
-4
2010
2011
Xut khu
2012
2013
Nhp khu
2014
2015
6T2016
Cn cn thng mi (ct phi)
Ngun: GSO
T trng xut khu
V cc mt hng xut khu, chng ti thy khng c nhiu thay i v

c cu nhm hng so vi cng k nm trc: Nhm hng cng nghip
Title:
nng v khong snSource:
c tnh t 37,4 t USD, tng 6,3% v chim
45,5% tng kim ngch hng ha xut khu. Nhm hng cng nghip
nh v tiu th cng nghip t 33,5 t USD, tng 5,1% v chim
40,7%. Nhm hng nng,
lm
sn
tabove
8,3 t
USD,
tng
7,8%
v report
chim
Please fill
in the
values
to have
them
entered
in your
10,1%. Hng thy sn c t 3,1 t USD, tng 4,4% v chim 3,7%.
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
DN vn FDI
DN trong nc
Ngun: GSO
Hoa K tip tc l th trng xut khu ln nht vi gi tr t 17,7 t

USD (tng 12,8%), tip n l EU t 16,3 t USD (tng 9,8%); Trung
Quc t 9,2 t USD (tng 14,3%); Hn Quc t 5,1 t USD (tng
39%). Ring xut khu sang th trng ASEAN t 8,2 t USD, gim
12,6%; Nht Bn t 6,6 t USD, gim 1,3%.
Gi tr hng ha nhp khu t 80,7 t USD, gim 0,5% so vi cng
k nm trc, trong khu vc kinh t trong nc t 33,4 t USD,
tng 1,3%; khu vc c vn u t nc ngoi t 47,3 t USD, gim
1,8%. Nu loi tr yu t gi (gi nhp khu bnh qun gim 7,8%),
kim ngch nhp khu 6 thng t 87,5 t USD, tng 7,9% so vi cng
k nm 2015
Nhn chung, hot ng ngoi thng ca Vit Nam vn din ra rt si
ng vi ng gp ln ca khi FDI. Tuy nhin, tc tng trng
xut khu ca Vit Nam sau giai on tng trng t bin nh ng
gp ca mt s doanh nghip ln (nh Samsung, LG..) ang dn i
vo n nh. Mc d vy, cn cn thng mi tip tc kh cn bng
nh nhp khu tng chm v y l mt nhn t tch cc h tr cho
iu hnh t gi ca NHNN.
4. Chnh sch ti kha v Ngn sch nh nc: N cng l ni lo
ln.
Trong 6 thng u nm, ngn sch nh nc thm ht ln n 82,9
nghn t ng. Trong , tng thu l 425,6 nghn t ng, tng chi t
508,5 nghn t ng.
V thu ngn sch, mc d cc khon thu t du th v hot ng
xut nhp khu 6 thng u nm t thp do gi du gim mnh v
www.vndirect.com.vn
19
thu sut hot ng xut nhp khu gim khi thc hin cc cam kt
thu quan, tuy nhin cc khon thu ni a khi sc gip cho tng
thu ngn sch vn t c tc tng trng kh. Vi trin vng
kinh t tip tc phc hi v hot ng sn xut kinh doanh ca doanh
nghip tt ln s gip gia tng ngun thu t khu vc ni a. i vi
chi ngn sch, c cu chi tiu tip tc cho thy s mt cn i trm
trng. Cc khon chi thng xuyn hin chim khong 72% tng chi,
chi u t pht trin v chi tr n ln lt chim 15% v 13% tng chi
NSNN.
S mt cn i thu, chi nh vy khin cho Chnh ph phi tng cng
vay n. Trong nm 2016, Chnh ph d kin vay 452.000 t ng (hn
20 USD), v tr n 273.000 t ng (12 t USD). Trong tng s tin
trn, s vay dng b p bi chi l 254.000 t ng; u t l
60.000 t ng; vay ODA, u i cho vay li l 43.000 t ng; vay
o n khong 95.000 t ng.
Ngun huy ng s n t:
Khi lng TPCP pht hnh

300.000
T VND
250.000
200.000
150.000
100.000
50.000
0
Ngun: B Ti chnh
Vay trong nc thng qua pht hnh tri phiu, vay t qu bo

him x hi v SCIC l 336.000 t ng.
Vay nc ngoi t ngun vn ODA, u i 4,7 t USD (99.000 t

ng, trong 43.000 t ng cho vay li, v 56.000 t ng
b p bi chi ngn sch nh nc).
Vay 17.000 t ng thng qua cc hnh thc khc nh pht hnh

tri phiu ngoi t trong nc, pht hnh tri phiu quc t.
Cng theo k hoch ny, Chnh ph d nh dnh s tin tr n l

273.000 t ng (12 t USD). Trong s , tr n trc tip ca Chnh
Title:
ph c b tr trongSource:
d ton ngn sch Nh nc (NSNN) nm 2016
l 154.000 t ng; tr n vay nc ngoi ca Chnh ph v cho vay
li khong 24.000 t ng; o n khong 95.000 t ng. Cui thng
6, Kho bc Nh nc
quyt
lng
TPCPin your
phtreport
hnh
Please
fill in thenh
valuestng
above khi
to have
them entered
t mc 220.000 t ban u ln mc 250.000 t ng trong nm 2016.
Theo quan st ca chng ti, ngun huy ng 452.000 t trn vn
ch yu n t th trng trong nc vi mc ch b p thm
ht ngn sch v tr n, o n l ch yu, phn dnh cho u
t pht trin rt nh.
V mt l thuyt, li sut s chu p lc tng khi Chnh ph pht hnh
khi lng TPCP kh ln nh vy. Tuy nhin, trong Qu 2 xu hng
tng ca li sut cha r rng. iu ny c c do 2 nguyn nhn:
www.vndirect.com.vn
S phi hp nhp nhng gia Chnh sch tin t v Chnh sch

ti kha. Na u nm NHNN mua vo khong 8 t USD, tc
c khong 160.000 170.000 t ng c bm ra ngoi th
trng; trong cng thi gian , NHNN gim pht hnh tn
phiu (tc gim ht tin v qua knh tn phiu). Hnh ng trn
gip thanh khon h thng di do, li sut qua m mc thp;
do gip cho vic pht hnh TPCP c thun li m li sut
khng b y ln. Theo thng k, trong 6 thng u nm, KBNN
huy ng c tng cng 187.726,3 t ng TPCP (t 85%
20
so vi k hoch c giao u nm v t 75,1% k hoch iu

chnh).
N cng/GDP
65%
59,6%
60%
56,3%
54,9%
55%
61,3%
54,2%
50,8%
50%
45%
40%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
Ngun: B Ti chnh
Cc c quan iu hnh chn thi im tng tc pht hnh kh

hp l. Nhng thng u nm thng l cc thng tn dng cha
tng trng mnh, do vic pht hnh vo thi im ny s t
gy tc ng tiu cc n thanh khon v li sut ca h thng
ngn hng.
N cng tng nhanh l h qu tt yu ca vic pht hnh TPCP ln

trong nhng nm qua. Tnh ti cui nm 2015, t l n cng/GDP
Title:
t 61,3%; trong ,Source:
n Chnh ph vt trn Quc hi cho php
(cui nm 2015 l 50,3% GDP). y thc s l mt ri ro trong
trung hn i vi kinh t Vit Nam. (Trong bo co chuyn v
n cng sp ti chng
ti fill
sin
su
hnto v
entered
ny).in your report
Please
thecp
values
above
havevn
them
Vi thc trng n cng nh hin nay, nu tng trng chm li
s khin cho ri ro n cng tng cao, t l n cng s vt trn
cho php ca Quc hi. Do , p lc phi duy tr tng trng kinh
t l kh ln. y chnh l mt trong nhng cn c chng ti cho
rng cc chnh sch s c ni lng mnh trong 6 thng cui nm,
c bit l chnh sch tin t.
5. Chnh sch tin t: li sut kh gim thm
Tnh n cui thng 6, tn dng nn kinh t tng 7,16% so vi cui
nm 2015 v tng cao hn so vi cng k (6 thng u nm 2015 tng
7,08%). Tn dng bng ng Vit Nam tng 8,11% so vi cui nm
2015, tng 22,95% so vi cng k nm trc, chim 90,8% tng tn
dng nn kinh t. Trong khi , tn dng bng ngoi t gim 4,64% so
vi cui nm 2015. Vic NHNN ban hnh cc quy nh cht ch theo
hng gim dn tnh trng la ha trong nn kinh t l nguyn nhn
chnh khin cho tn dng ngoi t gim.
Chnh ph nhim k mi c nhng ng thi ni lng chnh sch
tin t h tr cho tng trng kinh t trong bi cnh tng trng
GDP chm li trong Qu u nm v lm pht ng mc thp. Khc
vi cc ln h li sut trc y, khi NHNN s dng cc bin php
hnh chnh yu cu gim li sut, trong t ni lng chnh sch tin
t ln ny, NHNN ch yu s dng cc bin php th trng thng qua
iu hnh th trng m. Cc li sut iu hnh nh li sut ti cp
vn, ti chit khu vn c gi nguyn, li sut th trng c h
thng qua vic duy tr li sut lin ngn hng mc thp nh hot
ng bm tin rng qua th trng m.
V xu hng bin ng ca li sut trong thi gian ti, nh nhn
nh m chng ti a ra trong bo co nhn nh li sut, ng
thi ni lng CSTT ch c th tr hon phn no tng ca li
sut th trng, kh c kh nng li sut ca cc ngn hng gim
thm. Tuy nhin, kh nng li sut tng mnh tr li cng khng
nhiu. Li sut trong thi gian ti s tng i n nh.
Quan st din bin ca li sut trong khong 5 nm gn y, chng
ti thy rng li sut th trng c tng quan kh thp vi lm pht
v li sut qua m lin ngn hng (ch bo ca CSTT). Mc d, ch
s CPI v li sut lin ngn hng gim t mc 2 con s xung mc
www.vndirect.com.vn
21
Li sut qua m (12/2015-6/2016)

6,0%
5,0%
4,0%
3,0%
2,0%
1,0%
0,0%
Ngun: FiinPro
T gi USD/VND (12/2015-6/2016)
23.000
rt thp ti thi im hin ti (nm 2015 CPI tng 0,63%; li sut qua
m c thi im di 2%/nm), tuy nhin li sut th trng gim
Title:
kh chm. Hin tng
trn xut pht t 2 nguyn nhn l: N cng
Source:
v n xu.
Thm ht ngn sch ln, n cng cao khin cho Chnh ph phi
tng cng pht hnh TPCP y li sut th trng tng (hiu ng
Please
fill inthng
the values
to have them
entered
your report
ln t Crowding out).
Theo
k, above
khi lng
TPCP
pht inhnh
tng khong 3,8 ln trong khong thi gian t nm 2010 n 2015 (t

62.000 t ln mc 256.000 t). Nm 2016, lng pht hnh TPCP tip
tc mc cao (khong 250.000 t), do s tip tc gy p lc ln
li sut.
N xu cao buc cc ngn hng phi tng trch lp d phng dn n
chi ph vn tng, kt qu l kh gim li sut u ra. y chnh l
nguyn nhn lm tc nghn s lin thng gia li sut trn th trng
lin ngn hng (th trng 2) v li sut th trng dn c, doanh
nghip (th trng 1). Theo nh gi ca chng ti, n xu l yu t
tc ng ln nht n xu hng ca li sut trong thi gian ti.
Nu n xu c x l nhanh, li sut s kh tng mnh.
Title:
22.500
22.000
21.500
21.000
T gi BQ LNH
T gi VCB-Bn
V vn t gi, Source:
nh nhn nh a ra cc bo co trc,
chng ti tip tc kin nh rng ri ro t gi trong nm 2016 l khng
ln bt k c mt vi yu t mi pht sinh nh s kin Brexit. Mc d
vy, chng ti cng Please
nhn fill
thy
cc
pabove
lc i
vi
t entered
gi ang
tng
in the
values
to have
them
in your
report
ln nh l h qu tt yu ca Chnh sch tin t c ni lng.
Tuy vy, vi bi cnh kinh t v m hin ti, cc iu chnh t gi
(nu c) s khng tc ng qu tiu cc i vi th trng nh
cc ln iu chnh trong cc nm kinh t v m bt n trc y.
Ngun: FiinPro
www.vndirect.com.vn
22
BCCL Q3/2016 Nhn nh th trng
PHN III: TH TRNG CHNG KHON

1. Din bin th trng chng khon Qu 2
a. Din bin ch s
Din bin hai ch s chng khon
640
86
620
84
600
82
580
80
560
78
540
520
76
500
74
VNINDEX
HNXINDEX
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Th trng chng khon Qu 2/2016 (i din bi ch s VNINDE X)

c th chia thnh ba giai on chnh v phin giao dch Brexit.
Giai on 1 (t 01/04-17/05/2016): Tng trng mnh
Th trng tng im mnh t mc y 555,82 ngy 04/04 ln mc
624,75 vo ngy 17/05/2016 tng ng vi mc tng 12,4%. Mc
tng mnh ny n t cc yu t h tr nh: (1) Gi du WTI tng
19,5% t cui thng 3/2016. (2) Gi cc hng ha c bn nh qung
st, nhm, ng, thp, cao su t nhin, ng cng c mc tng
mnh. (3) FED hon tng li sut. (4) Chnh ph nhim k mi lin tc
pht i nhng thng ip tich cc nh ci thin mi trng u t
n u TPP, h tr th trng vn, ti cu trc DNNN, gim li sut
Giai on 2 (t 18/05-23/06/2016): Giao dch tch ly
tng ca th trng chng li t ngy 18/05 v giao dch i ngang
t 604-632 im do lo ngi trng cu dn v vic Vng quc Anh
rt ra khi Lin minh Chu u. Giao dch din ra trong bin hp
trong hai tun trc thi im b phiu phn nh tm l lng l ca
nh u t khi cc kt qu kho st ca nhiu t chc cho thy mc
chnh lch gia t l ng h v khng ng h l khng ln.
Phin giao dch c bit Brexit (24/06/2016)
Kt qu thng li ca bn la chn ri EU trong cuc trng cu dn
Brexit ti Vng quc Anh lm th trng ti chnh ton cu chao
o. Trong phin giao dch ny, ch s VNINDEX c lc mt hn
35 im. Ngoi mc gim im mnh ny, th trng cng chng kin
mt lc cu rt mnh khi th trng gim. Khi lng giao dch ca
sn HSX t 262 triu n v, l mc cao nht trong lch s sn HSX.
Cc ng tin GBP, EUR v JPY bin ng mnh. ng EUR gim
gi gip cho cc Doanh nghip vay EUR c hng li nh NT2,
HT1 v BCC. Thc t 3 c phiu c n vay EUR ny u tng gi
mnh trong phin Brexit.
www.vndirect.com.vn
23
Giai on 3 (t 25/06-30/06/2016): Tng mnh sau phin Brexit

Chng ti pht hnh bo co nhn nh v s kin Brexit ngay sau
s kin ny din ra. Trong bo co ny, chng ti nh gi Brexit c
tc ng tiu cc trong ngn hn v s sm kt thc. Thc t cho thy
th trng tng im 7 phin lin tip sau s kin Brexit v t mc
cao nht trong 5 nm.
Tnh chung c Qu 2/2016, ch s VNINDEX tng 13,2% l mt trong
nhng th trng c mc tng trng tt nht th gii.
b. Thanh khon th trng tng mnh
Tng khi lng khp lnh trn sn HOSE trong Qu 2/2016 t 7,98
t n v vi khi lng giao dch bnh qun phin t 128,68 triu
n v, tng 15,64% so vi cng k nm 2015. Trn sn HNX, tng
khi lng khp lnh trong Qu 2/2016 t 3,17 t n v vi khi
lng giao dch bnh qun phin t 51,10 triu n v, tng 2,82% so
vi Qu 1/2015.
c. Bc tranh dng tin
Dng tin theo ngnh
5.09% 1.96%
3.28%
3.79%
14.95%
15.69%
1.16%
5.13%
12.53%
3.89%
0.62%
1.14%
1.01%
6.88%
1.11%
3.10%
15.63%
3.04%
Du kh
Ha cht
Ti nguyn c bn
Xy dng v vt liu
Hng ha & Dch v Cng nghip
t v ph tng
Thc phm v ung
Hng c nhn & Gia dng
Y t
Bn l
Truyn thng
Du lch v Gii tr
in, nc & xng du kh t
Ngn hng
Bo him
Bt ng sn
Dch v ti chnh
Cng ngh Thng tin
Ngun: VNDIRECT tng hp
Qu 2/2016, dng tin tp trung vo cc nhm ngnh BS, Thc

phm v ung, Ti nguyn c bn, Xy dng v vt liu xy dng.
V c phiu, trong Qu 2/2016, sn HSX c 206 c phiu tng gi v
sn HNX c 204 c phiu tng gi. Mc tng mnh nht thuc v cc
c phiu midcap hot ng trong ngnh vt liu xy dng, thy sn,
t.
www.vndirect.com.vn
24
Danh sch 10 m c phiu tng mnh nht
Danh sch 10 m c phiu gim mnh nht
M CK (HSX) Mc tng
M CK (HNX) Mc tng
M CK (HSX) Mc gim
M CK (HNX) Mc gim
STT
208.11%
KTS
219.44%
KSS
-46.67%
MBG
-76.50%
HAS
132.08%
TAG
216.48%
DAT
-46.53%
KHB
-56.67%
NKG
95.31%
L14
126.67%
KSA
-42.86%
BSC
-51.79%
TDW
92.54%
DP3
112.73%
SVT
-41.08%
MIM
-45.45%
HAX
87.50%
NHA
106.33%
LCM
-41.03%
KDM
-44.26%
LSS
87.25%
TMX
102.50%
TSC
-39.58%
TFC
-37.98%
HSG
85.23%
FID
89.66%
BGM
-39.39%
TH1
-35.68%
DRH
84.05%
SLS
88.77%
KSH
-31.82%
KSK
-33.33%
KSB
82.00%
AAA
86.11%
IDI
-24.05%
CTA
-32.61%
MDG
76.25%
BPC
84.61%
RIC
-22.94%
ADC
-31.65%
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Din bin Index v cc ngnh 6 thng u nm 2016

140,0
130,0
120,0
110,0
100,0
90,0
80,0
70,0
60,0
50,0
VNINDEX
Du kh
Ha cht
Kim loi cng nghip
Xy dng v vt liu
Dng c in v in t v CN k thut
Logistic
t v ph tng t
Sn xut thc phm
Dt may
Dc phm
Bn l
in lc
Ga, nc v Dch v Cng cng
Ngn hng
Bo him
Bt ng sn
Chng khon
CNTT
Ngun: VNDIRECT
P/E m t s th trng trong khu vc
P/B m t s th trng trong khu vc
30
3,0
25
2,5
20
2,0
15
1,5
10
1,0
0,5
0,0
Ngun: Bloomberg
www.vndirect.com.vn
Title:
Source:
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in y
Ngun: Bloomberg
25
d. Giao dch khi ngoi

Trong 6 thng 2016, khu vc Chu ghi nhn dng tin quay li mua
rng sau khi bn rng mnh vo nm trc. Mt s quc gia c dng
tin mua rng nh i Loan 6,3 t USD, Philippines 3,5 t USD, n
3 t USD. th trng Vit Nam, dng tin ngoi rt rng trong 6
thng u nm mi gi tr rt rng l 1.756 t ng, tnh ring Qu 2
th gi tr rt rng l 696 t ng trong khi cng k nm 2015 khi ngoi
mua rng 3.890 t ng.
Vic khi ngoi rt rng xut pht t nhng bt n ca Chu u m
c bit l s kin Brexit. Chng ti cho rng ri ro t nhng bin ng
ny ch mang tnh cht ngn hn v nh u t ngoi s sm mua
rng tr li.
2. Nhn nh th trng
Ch s VNINDEX c din bin tng im tch cc trong Qu 2/2016
v vt qua mc khng c 641 im, t mc cao nht trong 8 nm
gn y. Di gc nhn phn tch k thut, chng ti t ra hai kch
bn chnh cho ch s VNINDEX trong Q3/2016.
Kch bn 1 (xc sut 65%): Ch s VNINDEX hon thnh sng iu
chnh II ln din ra t 09/2014 n 01/2016 v bc vo sng III ln.
Trong kch bn ny chng ti nh gi hin ti ch s VNINDEX ang
nm trong sng 1 ca sng III ln. Mc im hon thnh sng 1 vo
khong 670 im, l khu vc khng c ca knh trn ca knh tng
gi v tng ng vi thi im Ta Trng ti Thng trc ti La Haye
ra phn quyt v v Philipines kin yu sch ch quyn ca Trung
Quc ti Bin ng Phn quyt ny c th to ra mt s sng gi
chnh tr nh hng ln th trng ti chnh.
Sau sng 1 s l sng 2 ca sng III ln. Sng 2 l sng iu chnh
v d kin s ko di trong trong Qu 3. Mc im h tr cho sng
iu chnh ny l khu vc 605 im (y ca sng (4)). Mc im s
ny cng xp x vi mc im s m theo m hnh nh lng ca
chng ti tnh ton (t vo cui Qu 3/2016 l 612 im).
Kch bn 2 (xc sut 35%): Ch s VNINDEX hon thnh sng iu

chnh II ln din ra t 09/2014 n 01/2016 v bc vo sng III ln.
www.vndirect.com.vn
26
Trong kch bn ny chng ti nh gi hin ti ch s VNINDEX ang

nm trong sng 3 ca sng III ln. Vi kch bn ny chng ti nh
gi sng 3 ca sng III l sng m rng, l sng tng mnh c kh
nng xuyn qua knh trn ca knh tng gi. Vi kch bn ny chng
ti cho rng ch s VNINDEX s t mc 720 im.
www.vndirect.com.vn
27
3. Thc trng v nh gi c hi u t trn UPCOM

a. Sn UPCOM: Bc m cho th trng nim yt
Sn UPCOM thc cht l th trng m cho doanh nghip tp
dt trc khi chuyn sang nim yt trn th trng chnh thc
nh sn HOSE, sn HNX. Mc tiu ca th trng UPCOM l to
ra th trng giao dch cho cc c phiu cha iu kin nim
yt trn th trng chnh thc, nhm tng tnh minh bch, thanh
khon ca c phiu, ng thi ngn chn th trng t do vn
tim n ri ro cao cho nh u t.
b. Sn giao dch UPCOM c nhng bc pht trin vt bc
trong 6 thng u nm 2016
Din bin ch s UPCOM (thng 6/2015-thng 6/2016)
Ngun: Bloomberg, VNDIRECT
www.vndirect.com.vn
Ch s UPCOM INDEX gim 7,16% trong Qu II/2016,

tuy nhin vn t mc tng trng kh n tng l 13,55%
(cao hn mc tng 9,2% ca VNIDEX v 6% ca HNX
INDEX) t mc 51,27 im hi u nm ln 58,22 im tnh
n ngy 30/06/2016.
V quy m th trng: Tnh n 30/06/2016, sn UPCOM
c 311 doanh nghip nim yt vi tng gi tr ng k giao
dch t 70.896 t ng, quy m vn ha th trng t hn
110.846 t ng, gp ln lt 2 ln v 3 ln so vi quy m vn
ha th trng ti thi im 31/12/2015 v 31/08/2015. Nu
tnh t thi im th trng UPCOM vn hnh cch y 7 nm
th quy m th trng tng chng mt hn 25 ln. Trong
nm 2016, HNX t ra mc tiu c thm khong 100 doanh
nghip mi ln sn giao dch UPCOM, nng tng s doanh
nghip nim yt trn sn UPCOM ln trn 400 doanh nghip.
Trong 5 thng u nm, sn UPCOM n hn 50 doanh
nghip nim yt mi, trong c nhiu doanh nghip quy m
ln v c tn tui trn th trng nh CTCP Cng Si Gn
(SGP), CTCP Pht trin in lc Vit Nam (VPD), Tng cng
ty Thp Vit Nam-VNSteel (TVN), CTCP Cp nc ng Nai
(DNW), Tng CTCP May Vit Tin (VGG), CTCP Cng
Nng (CDN).
28
Gi tr vn ha UPCOM
120.000
100.000
T ng
80.000
60.000
40.000
20.000
0
Thg8-15
Thg9-15
Thg10-15
Thg11-15
Thg12-15
Thg1-16
Thg2-16
Thg3-16
Thg4-16
Thg5-16
Thg6-16
Ngun: VNDIRECT
1.400
1.200
1.000
800
600
400
200
0
18.000
16.000
14.000
12.000
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0
6T/2015
2015
Khi lng giao dch
6T/2016
Gi tr giao dch
Ngun: VNDIRECT
www.vndirect.com.vn
V thanh khon: Trong 6 thng u nm 2016, sn UPCOM

ghi nhn thanh khon tng t bin. Tng khi lng giao
dch 6T/2016 t 1,16 t c phiu, gp 3,47 ln so vi cng k
nm 2015. Tng gi tr giao dch 6T/2016 cng tng tng
ng mc 3,49 ln, t 16.262 t ng.
Title:
Source:
t ng
Triu CP
Th trng UPCOM 6T/2016 bng n giao

dch
c. Lc y cho s pht trin nhanh chng ca sn UPCOM n

t cc chnh sch h tr ca Chnh ph
Ch trng y mnh c phn ha doanh nghip Nh nc
the values above to have
in your
report
theo Quyt Please
nh fill
sin51/2014/Q-TTg
cathem
Thentered
tng
Chnh
ph quy nh mt s ni dung v thoi vn, bn c phn v
ng k giao dch, nim yt trn TTCK ca doanh nghip nh
nc; Ngh nh s 60/2015/N-CP v Thng t
180/2015/TT-B TC ca B Ti chnh v rt ngn thi gian
doanh nghip sau c phn ha ng k giao dch trn UPCOM
(trong thi gian 30 ngy k t ngy IPO v 10 ngy i vi c
phiu hy nim yt theo Thng t 180/2015/TT-B TC ca B
Ti chnh).
Cc bin php k thut ca y ban Chng khon tng sc
hp dn cho sn UPCOM nh: ni bin giao dch ca sn
UPCOM ln 15%, phn bng c phiu trn th trng, cho
php giao dch k qu vi mt s c phiu trn UPCOM t
iu kin.
S giao dch Chng khon HNX ang phi hp vi B Ti
chnh tin hnh sa i Thng t 196/2001/TT-B TC, trong
c ni dung gn u gi, c phn ha vi ng k giao dch
29
trn UPCOM, to iu kin cho nh u t tham gia u gi

sm c giao dch c phn. Khi Thng t ny c ban
hnh, s h tr th trng UPCOM pht trin, sm hon thnh
mc tiu thu hp th trng c phiu t do, ng thi to iu
kin tp dt cho cc doanh nghip trc khi nim yt.
d. K hoch nim yt trn UPCOM ca mt s doanh nghip ln
trong 6 thng cui nm 2016
Nhiu doanh nghip ln c k hoch nim yt trn sn UPCOM
s gip duy tr s si ng v tng thm tnh hp dn trn sn
UPCOM.
Tn
Thng tin
Tng Cng ty 36
Cng ty TNHH MTV Vit Nam K ngh sc sn
(Vissan)
Cng ty TNHH MTV Xut nhp khu v u t
Ch Ln (Cholimex)
Thng 9/2016
Tng cng ty Lm Nghip Vit Nam (Vinafor)

Chng khon FPT
Tng Cng ty Cng hng khng Vit Nam
(ACV)
Nim yt trn UPCOM hoc HOSE

Thi im c ths bn trong HC ngy
30/06/2016
Thi im c th s bn trong HC t
chc vo thng 7/2016
Trong nm 2016
ng k giao dch trn UPCOM khng mun
hn u thng 7/2016
Source: VNDIRECT tng hp
e. Nhng hng ha cht lng trong danh sch UPCOM

Premium s thu tht dng tin u t trong thi gian ti
Cc c phiu c la chn vo danh sch UPCOM Premium l c
phiu ca cc doanh nghip c chn lc, p ng cc tiu ch v
tnh hnh ti chnh v thc tun th quy nh php lut v cng b
thng tin trn TTCK, cn c trn cc tiu chun nh lng v nh
tnh theo quy nh ca HNX. C th:
www.vndirect.com.vn
Yu t nh lng: t chc KGD c vn iu l t 120 t

ng tr ln, hot ng kinh doanh nm lin trc c li,
khng c l ly k; hoc t chc KGD c vn iu l t 30
t ng tr ln, t l li nhun sau thu trn vn ch s hu
(ROE) nm lin trc ti thiu l 5%, khng c l ly k. Cc
tiu ch ny c xem xt da trn bo co ti chnh c
kim ton ca nm ti chnh gn nht.
Yu t nh tnh: cc t chc KGD c la chn vo bng
UPCoM Premium phi bo co cho S GDCK H Ni v vic
cng b thng tin bo co ti chnh nm c kim ton,
bo co ti chnh bn nin c sot xt (nu c) ca nm
ti chnh gn nht ng thi hn quy nh.
Ngoi ra, cc t chc KGD c chng khon iu kin
giao dch k qu theo Quy ch hng dn giao dch k qu
chng khon ca y ban Chng khon Nh nc cng l mt
tiu chun c la chn vo bng UPCoM Premium.
30
Danh sch 10 m UPCOM Prem ium c EPS cao nht
14.000
Danh sch 10 m UPCOM Prem ium c ROE cao nht
Title:
Source:
45,00%
40,00%
12.000
35,00%
10.000
30,00%
8.000
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in y
ng
25,00%
6.000
20,00%
15,00%
4.000
10,00%
2.000
5,00%
0
PSL HDM NBS NTW PTG ACE WSB HPP ADP MEF
Ngun: VNDIRECT
0,00%
ADP
PTG HDM
ACE
TNB
PSL
MEF
CNC
SNC
IME
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Cc c phiu c la chn vo UPCOM Premium thng qua cc

bc sng lc ca HNX s iu kin giao dch k qu. Chng
ti cho rng nhm c phiu UPCOM Premium s thu ht c dng
tin ca Nh u t trong thi gian ti.
www.vndirect.com.vn
31
IV. TRIN VNG MT S NHM NGNH
BCCL Q3/2016 Ngnh Ngn hng
1. NGNH NGN HNG

Su thng u nm din bin kh quan
Thanh khon ton h thng ci thin tch cc. Theo Tng cc
Thng k, tnh n thi im 20/6/2016, tng trng tn dng t 6,2%
thp hn so vi mc 6,28% ca cng k nm trc. ng ch , c
huy ng v tng phng tin thanh ton (M2) u duy tr tc tng
nhanh hn so vi tn dng. M2 tng 8,07% (cng k nm trc tng
5,09%); trong khi huy ng vn ca cc TCTD tng mnh 8,23%
(cng k nm trc tng 4,85%). Mc d chnh lch khng qu ln
nhng y l du hiu tch cc chng t thanh khon dng tr
li.
LNTT ca cc NH nim yt Q1/2016
Thng t 06/2016/TT-NHNN nh nhng hn so vi d on. T l

cho vay trung v di hn c tht cht theo hng c l trnh
nghn t
Title:
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
gim bt p lc c cu
li ngun vn ca cc NH. Nh mt bng
Source:
li sut huy ng gim nh v n nh tr li t gia thng 5 sau thi
gian bt tng trong Q1.
CTG BID VCB MBB EIB SHB ACB STB
Q1/2015
Q1/2016
Ngun: VNDIRECT
T l li cn bin (NIM) cc NH nim yt

4.50%
fill in
the values
to haveha
them su
entered
in your
report
KQKD Q1/2016 khPlease
quan
song
c above
s phn
sc.
Cui
Q1/2016, tng trng tn dng ton h thng t 1,54%; trong tng
tng trng ca 9 NH nim yt t 3,9%; l mc tng trng mnh
nht trong 4 nm tr li y. c h tr bi tng trng tn dng,

nhm NH nim yt dn u u ghi nhn li nhun khi sc. Trong
khi cc NH trong qu trnh ti cu trc nh EIB, STB vn cn kh
cht vt vn ln. Ngoi tr NIM ca VCB v CTG c xu hng
phc hi nh, cc NH nim yt cn li u theo xu hng suy gim
do li sut cho vay cnh tranh v li sut tri phiu tip tc gim.
Nhng im nhn trong bc tranh ngn hng na cui nm 2016
Title: tn dng 18%-20% tr nn kh thi. Thanh
Mc tiu tng trng
Source:li sut huy ng n nh, cng vi tc ng
khon di do, mt bng
t quy nh ni lng cho vay ngoi t, tn dng c nhiu kh nng tng
tc v ch trong na cui nm 2016. Qua kho st ca chng ti, a
Pleasethnh
fill in the
values
above
havetng
themtrng
entered in
report
s cc NH ln u hon
hoc
vt
chtotiu
6 your
thng;
4.00%
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
trong BIDV c t 8-9%; VCB t 7,8%; CTG t 6%.
2.00%
1.50%
Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016
CTG
BID
VCB
EIB
SHB
MBB
ACB
STB
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Tng vn l l trnh cp thit. T l an ton vn (CAR) ca ton h

thng tip tc gim mnh t gia nm 2015 do tc tng tng ti
sn nhanh hn so vi tc tng ca vn ch s hu. Bn cnh ,
t nm 2016, 10 NH s thc hin th im tiu chun Basel II bao gm
CTG, BIV, VCB, ACB, MBB, STB, VIB, Techcombank, VPBank v
Maritime Bank. a s cc NH, nht l cc NH c CAR gn ngng
qui nh quyt lit ra k hoch tng vn ti HC t u nm,
song tnh n thi im hin ti vn cha c NH no hon thnh mc
tiu ra. V vy chng ti nhn thy p lc tng vn dn vo na
cui nm l rt ln.
Ni room v sp nhp vn l nhng cu chuyn ng ch . Trong
bi cnh p lc tng vn cao song ngun lc trong nc cn hn ch,
www.vndirect.com.vn
33
T l an ton vn (CAR) ton h thng
VCB v CTG ang kin ngh nng t l s hu nc ngoi ln 35%.

Bn cnh , BID v MBB cng ang tch cc tm i tc chin lc.
Title:rng hot ng sp nhp s tip tc si ng
Ngoi ra, chng ti cho
Source:
vo na cui nm. Sau khi hon tt sp nhp PG Bank, CTG c kh
nng s n nhn thm mt NH na. Cc thng v sp nhp gia
VCB v Saigon bank, An Bnh v ng , vn cn ang b ng.
13.6
13.4
13.2
13
12.8
12.6
12.4
12.2
N xu v trch lp d phng tip tc n mn li nhun. N xu

So snh CAR cc NH nim yt v trung bnh
ngnh
Ngun: VNDIRECT
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
ton h thng tng nh t 2,55% cui nm 2015 ln 2,62% n cui

thng 3/2016. ng ch , chi ph DPRR ca BIDV tng gp i so
vi cng k nm trc.
Title: im sng l MBB, VCB v CTG nh hot
ng thu hi n quyt
lit nn chi ph DPRR c gim nh trong
Source:
Q1/2016.
Trin vng c phiu ngn hng Q3/2016
VCB BID CTG ACB MBB SHB STB EIB
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Chi ph trch lp d phng cc NH nim yt
nghn t
2,500
2,000
Nhm c phiu NH ng vai tr quan trng gip VNINDEX

vt mc 600. So snh tng quan ch s, chng ti nhn thy, t
thi im 20/4/2016, s tng im mnh m ca nhm c phiu NH
sau khi c thng tin KQKD Q1 h tr VNINDEX vt mc 600. Tuy
nhin sau tng ca c phiu NH khng gi c do thiu thng
tin dn dt. V vy chng
Title: ti k vng nhng thng tin kh quan v li
nhun Q2 s l n Source:
by gi ca c phiu NH trong ngn hn.
1,500
1,000
Din bin VN-Index v ch s c phiu NH
500
0
CTG BID VCB MBB EIB SHB ACB STB
Q1/2015
Q1/2016
Ngun: VNDIRECT
600
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in140

your report
135
130
500
125
400
120
115
300
110
200
105
100
01/04/2016
01/08/2016
01/14/2016
01/20/2016
01/26/2016
02/01/2016
02/05/2016
02/18/2016
02/24/2016
03/01/2016
03/07/2016
03/11/2016
03/17/2016
03/23/2016
03/29/2016
04/04/2016
04/08/2016
04/14/2016
04/21/2016
04/27/2016
05/05/2016
05/11/2016
05/17/2016
05/23/2016
05/27/2016
06/02/2016
06/08/2016
06/14/2016
06/20/2016
06/24/2016
100
C phiu NH
VNINDEX
Ngun: VNDIRECT
VCB Tip tc l im sng v li nhun ca c ngnh

Tip ni tng trng ca Q1/2016, NH ang c kt qu kinh doanh
5 thng u nm ht sc kh quan; trong tn dng tng 7,8%, huy
ng tng 5%. c tnh ly k LNTT 6 thng u nm t 3.900 t
ng, tng 23,8% so vi cng k nm trc. ng ch , hot ng
thu hi n xu ng gp hn 700 t ng ly k t u nm n
nay.
LNTT nm 2016 d bo s cao hn k hoch 10%, t mc 8.000
8.200 t ng (tng t 17,2% - 20,1% so vi nm 2015). Chi ph DPRR
c nm d kin mc 5.500 t ng (gim 8,8% so vi nm 2015).
www.vndirect.com.vn
34
Cc nh u t cn lu nhng thng tin nh: chia c tc, Mizuho

c tng t l s hu hay khng c th l nhng yu t bt ng nh
hng n gi c phiu trong ngn hn. Trong bo co nhanh ngy
15/06, chng ti a ra khuyn ngh MUA i vi c phiu VCB vi
gi mc tiu 1 nm l 54.000 ng, tng ng vi P/B 2016 2,8 ln
(nh gi m Mizuho chi tr khi mua 15% c phn ca VCB vo
thng 9/2011). Ti thi im ngy 13/7, gi VCB ang giao dch mc
57.000 ng, vt ngng li nhun m chng ti a ra v vy chng
ti i khuyn ngh NM GI i vi vi VCB.
CTG nh gi hp dn i vi mt NH ang c nhiu thay i
tch cc (xem chi tit trang 55)
BID Kh khn vn cn trc mt
BID ghi nhn 3.600 nghn t ng LNTT 6 thng u nm, tng t
bin 20% so vi cng k nm trc nh tn dng v huy ng tng
trng mnh m ln lt l 10% v 7%. Bn cnh , NH cng ghi
nhn li nhun t bin 890 t ng thoi vn khi NH VID.
Tuy nhin trong di hn, chng ti cho rng nm 2016 s l mt nm
y kh khn vi BIDV do ch tiu tng trng tn dng cao, d a
vn cp 2 cn, p lc tng vn mnh song cc phng n tng
vn dng nh vn cha c gii quyt hp l.
Trong trng hp phi tr c tc 8% bng tin mt, NH s phi tng
t l pht hnh ra cng chng ng thi s tch cc hn na trong
vic tm kim nh u t chin lc nc ngoi. Tuy nhin chng ti
cho rng trong tnh hnh hin nay, kh nng th trng hp th ht hn
3 nghn t c phiu ca BIDV l kh thp trong khi vic tm kim i
tc chin lc kh c kh nng hon thnh trong nm 2016.
www.vndirect.com.vn
35
BCCL Q3/2016 Ngnh Du kh
2. NGNH DU KH
Tnh hnh th gii
D tha ngun cung du th trn th gii ang c du hiu gim
do trong khi nhu cu ang tng dn ln ch yu nh vo cc nc
Chu , c bit l n v Trung Quc.
Gi du 6 thng cui nm 2016 c d bo s ch duy tr mc
n nh 45 - 50 USD/thng v s khng c bc nhy vt no do: (1)
40 - 50 USD/thng l mc chi ph sn xut ca du phin. V vy
cc nh sn xut du phin s lp tc thc y sn xut khi gi
vt trn 50 USD/thng khin cho ngun cung gia tng nhanh chng,
(2) Fed c cho rng s khng nng li sut sau v kin Brexit t
nht l ht nm nay. Tuy nhin, ng USD tng gi sau Brexit vo
hi cui thng 6 v c d bo tip tc tng do s suy yu ca ng
bng. Quyt nh khng tng li sut ng USD ca Fed s khng c
tc dng h tr gi du tng mnh.
D tr du th ca th gii c d bo s gim dn t Qu 2 nm
2016 ti Qu 1 nm 2017. Cc s liu cng b cho thy, d tr du
th ca M gim lin tip trong mt s tun ca hai thng 5 v 6 nm
nay. Ti thi im hin ti th din bin d tr du th ca M v tnh
hnh kim sot bo ng Nigeria l hai yu t ang c nh hng
ln nht ln din bin gi du.
Tnh hnh Vit Nam
Theo PVN, trong 6 thng u nm 2016, sn xut du th v
condensate ca Vit Nam t 8,92 triu tn, tng ng vi 55,6%
k hoch nm, sn lng kh t 5,65 t m3, t 58,8% k hoch nm.
Gi bn du trung bnh ca ngnh du kh Vit Nam khong 40,5
USD/thng dn ti doanh thu ton PVN 215,5 nghn t (trong doanh
thu t bn du th t 2,68 triu USD) ch bng 42% k hoch nm.
D tnh nm 2016, Tp on Du kh Vit Nam s t ch tiu v sn
lng khai thc nhng s khng t mc tiu v doanh thu v li
nhun. Gia tng tr lng d kin khng t ch tiu v cc hot ng
thm d nm 2016 d bo khng em li nhiu thnh cng.
Kt qu kinh doanh ca cc cng ty nim yt ngnh du kh trong na
u nm 2016 l kh n tng, hu ht u t v vt ch tiu v
doanh thu v li nhun na nm nh s tng trng 80% ca gi du
t u nm 2016. Tuy nhin, vi k hoch ra cho c nm da trn
gi du l 60 USD/thng th cc cng ty trong ngnh kh c th t
mc ch tiu v doanh thu v li nhun ca c nm.
Trong Qu 3 nm 2016, ngoi tr cc thng tin h tr t cng ty v
tnh hnh kh quan ca th trng, chng ti d bo, nhm c phiu
du kh trong Qu 3 nm 2016 s c tn hiu tch cc mt s cng
ty c kt qu kinh doanh 6 thng u nm tt. S cn li nhn chung
khng c bin ng nhiu do gi du s i vo n nh.
www.vndirect.com.vn
36
D tha ngun cung bt u thu hp

Theo s liu ca C quan Nng lng Quc t, nhu cu tiu th du
th ton cu Q1/2016 t mc 95,17 triu thng/ngy, tng 1,6 triu
thng (0,5%) so vi con s 94,74 triu thng nm 2015. Tng nhu cu
tiu th du th Qu 2 nm 2016 l 95,98 triu thng/ngy (tng 810
ngn thng/ngy so vi qu trc) trong khi ngun cung du th t
96,1 triu thng/ngy (gim 390 ngn thng/ngy so vi qu trc).
D bo Qu 3 nm nay nhu cu tiu th s t khong 96,75 triu
thng/ngy, tng 770 ngn thng/ngy so vi Qu 2 trong khi ngun
cung c d bo khng c nhiu thay i trong cng k.
Nhu cu tiu th du trong 6 thng cui nm c d bo tng nh
do ti ma li xe v nhu cu si m tng cao Bc bn cu. Ngoi
ra, tng trng nhu cu tiu th t cc nc Chu ch yu t Trung
Quc v n cng ng gp mt phn khng nh. Trung Quc,
h tr tng trng tiu th du th s n t cc lnh vc giao thng
vn ti, ha du v cc hp ng cung cp nhiu liu cho cng nghip
bt u c hiu lc.
V pha ngun cung, tng trng sn lng ton cu bt u suy
yu. Sn lng Qu 1 nm 2016 gim gn 1 triu thng/ngy xung
cn 96,49 triu thng/ngy do gin on ngun cung ngoi mun
bi chy rng Canada, bo ng Nigeria, Venezue v Libya. Qu
3 nm 2016 Nigeria d kin s cha phc hi sn xut do tnh hnh
bt n chnh tr vn cn tip din khin cho sn lng du trn th gii
gim nh ch cn 96,2 triu thng. Sn lng t cc nc ngoi OPEC
trong 6 thng cui nm 2016 c d bo s gim khong 140 ngn
thng/ngy so vi con s ca 6 thng u nm nay v 1 triu
thng/ngy so vi cng k nm ngoi. Cc nc ang pht trin d
tnh tng sn lng ln 270 ngn thng/ngy so vi c tnh hi u
nm b li mc gim 280 thng/ngy ca khi OECD.
Din bin cung - cu du th trn th gii
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
Tiu th (tr.thng/ngy)
Ngun Cung (tr.thng/ngy)
Ngun: EIA Oil market report June 2016
Cc s liu trn ch ra rng d tha ngun cung trn th trng c

kh nng s gim trong cc qu ti. mt mc no , tc tng
chm li ca d tr du th thng mi ti M trong cc thng u
www.vndirect.com.vn
37
nm 2016 l tn hiu cho thy d tha ngun cung trn th trng

bt u cho tn hiu gim.
29/6/16
22/6/16
15/6/16
8/6/16
1/6/16
25/5/16
18/5/16
11/5/16
4/5/16
27/4/16
20/4/16
13/4/16
6/4/16
30/3/16
23/3/16
16/3/16
9/3/16
Thay i d tr du th ca M
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Ngun: EIA
Vi mt bc tranh r rng v ngun cung v nhu cu nh nu trn,

trong iu kin kinh t ton cu ang c ci thin dn th th gii
ang trng ch mt th trng du cn bng v cung cu. Theo
Bloomberg a tin, s kin Brexit va ri c th nh hng khin cho
tng trng kinh t Chu u gim 0,3% khin cho trong di hn, nhu
cu tiu th th gii gim 100 - 200 ngn thng/ngy.
Cn bng cung cu du th n Q4/2017
(triu thng/ngy)
Theo IEA, trong mt vi nm ti, cn cn cung cu du th s tip tc

c thu hp v cn bng hn bi ngun cung du th t cc nc
ngoi OPEC v nhu cu tiu th t cc nc Chu . Theo , ngun
cung du th ca cc nc ngoi OPEC s tip tc tng nhanh trong
thp k ny bi vic gia tng sn lng khai thc du phin
(tight/shale oil) ca M v du ct (sand oil) ca Canada. Trong khi
, tng trng nhu cu du th th gii trong di hn t nm 2016
tr i ch yu n t cc nc khu vc chu -Thi Bnh Dng, vi
phn ln lng nhu cu du th gia tng tp trung ti Trung Quc v
Ngun: IEA
n . Mt s khu vc nh Bc M, chu u, d bo tng trng nhu

cu du th s chm li do nhiu nc ti cc khu vc ny p dng
thnh cng nhng tin b khoa hc cng ngh trong vic tit kim
nhin liu cho lnh vc giao thng vn ti v nh hng ca nng
lng thay th.
Din bin gi du - Mi hy vng bng n tt trong nm nay
Gi du c cho rng chm y t u nm 2016 v quy lut
cung - cu ang quyt nh gi du. Nhu cu tiu t xng du ca M
tng vt trong khi sn lng du th ca M gim, gin on ngun
cung ngoi mun bi chy rng Canada, bo ng Nigeria,
Venezue v Libya thc y gi tng 80%, vt ngng 50
USD/thng ln u tin trong vng 6 thng qua. Tuy nhin, vi mc
gi 50 USD/thng th th trng lp tc c b sung ngun cung
www.vndirect.com.vn
38
mnh m t du phin M. Bng chng cho thy, tnh ti thi

im 01/07/2016, khong 10 gin khoan du phin M c
a hot ng tr li trong khi , thng 5 ton th gii mi ch c 9
gin khoan ti khi ng. Con s ny c coi l nhiu nht t u
nm cho ti nay.
Din bin gi du trong vng 1 nm qua
100
50
WTI (USD/thng)
Brent (USD/thng)
Ngun: EIA
Biu din bin gi du hnh trn cho thy rng gi du th bc

vo xu th tng t cui thng 1 nm 2016. Trong sut 6 thng gi du
c h tr tch cc bi xu th yu i ca ngun cung v th gii thc
s trng ch s ct gim sn lng ca OPEC c mt c nhy
vt ca gi du. Tuy nhin iu ny khng xy ra v gi du tng ln
vi tc chm chp vi hy vng c mt s h tr khc Fed s khng
tng li sut trong cc thng ti khin ng USD suy yu. S kin
Brexit va qua khin cho gi du lp tc gim 4,9% dp tt mi
hy vng bng ln ca gi du. Nguyn nhn do s suy yu ca ng
bng khin cho ng USD tng, gi du gim v cho d c quyt nh
khng tng li sut cng ca Fed vo qu ti cng khng th khin
gi du tng mnh.
V vy, 6 thng cui nm 2016, vi s rnh rp ca du phin,
chng ti cho rng gi du s ch duy tr mc 45 - 50 USD/thng v
ngng ny s c coi l ngng n nh ca gi du. D bo gi
du ca mt s t chc trn th gii cng cho thy rng, gi du trung
bnh nm 2016 cng khng vt qu ngng 50 USD/thng.
D bo gi du ca mt s t chc (USD/thng)
Tn t chc / Gi du
2016
2017
2018
2019
Raymond James
50
80
75
70
Morgan Stanley
45
51
64
77
69
70
Peper Jaffray
Street Consensus
53.83
59
60
IMF
43.9
51
53
55
IEA
41
50
44.45
52.42
64
65
Trung v
Bn cnh , ri ro trong di hn l vic Anh tch ri ra khi EU cng

c th khin cho nn kinh t Chu u v Anh suy gim ko theo suy
gim kinh t th gii lm suy gim tiu th du v nh hng ti cn
www.vndirect.com.vn
39
bng mong manh ca cung - cu khin cho gi du suy yu hn mc

hin ti.
Vit Nam c gng gia tng sn lng b p st gim doanh

thu
Giai on 2016 - 2025, tc tng trng ca sn lng du th ca
Vit Nam c d bo gim trung bnh 3% mt nm do cc m du
bt u cn kit v chnh sch ct gim chi tiu khu thng
ngun v cc d n chun b u t. Sn xut du th Qu 3 nm
2016 d kin tng 12,5 % so vi cng k nm ngoi nh vo s c
gng khai thc nhiu hn t cc m ang khai thc lu nm b p
cho s st gim ngun thu t du do gi du. Tuy nhin chin lc
nh vy s khng c hiu qu lu di v hin nay cc doanh nghip
trong ngnh ang rt c gng ct gim chi ph u t v kim ch chi
tiu nhm i ph vi bin ng gi du.
Trong 6 thng u nm 2016, Vit Nam khai thc c khong 8,68
triu tn bng 54,25% k hoch 16 triu tn nm 2016. Sn lng
khai thc kh na u nm nay t khong 6 t m3, t 60% k hoch
nm, doanh thu t du th t 2,4 triu USD, ch bng 37,15% k
hoch 7 triu ca c nm. D kin c nm 2016, Vit Nam s khai
thc khong 17 triu tn du th (tng 1 triu tn so vi k hoch nm)
v 10,2 triu m3 kh (tng 0,3 t m3 so vi k hoch nm).
KQKD 6 thng u nm mt s cng ty trong ngnh
Kt qu kinh doanh nm 2016 ca mt s cng ty du kh trong 6
thng u nm kh tt nh s tng gi 80% ca du th t thng 1
cho ti nm nay.
KQKD m t s cng ty thuc ngnh du kh
EPS 3 EPS
PE
Qu
Trailing Trailing
Li Nhun sau thu (t ng)
% Ch
c TH c TH
1H2016 so tiu
c TH (ng) (ng)
3Q2016 1H2016 1H2015 vi 1H2015 c nm 3Q2016
Doanh thu (t ng)

c TH
M CK 1H2016
1H2015
1H2016 so
vi 1H2015
% Ch
tiu
c nm
GAS
28.078
31.369
-10%
51%
12.83
3.174
5.340
-41%
45%
1.522
2.454
3.414
19,6x
DCM
1.253
1.849
-32%
42% 750.00
11
145
-92%
13%
21
313
594
20,9x
PET
5.060
5.471
-8%
56%
2.25
104
121
-14%
62%
42
1.882
2.115
6,3x
PVD
2.636
8.421
-69%
53%
1.95
74
1.011
-93%
74%
130
3.274
2.037
15,1x
PVT
3.103
2.623
18%
62%
1.29
219
176
25%
78%
79
996
1.703
8,7x
DPM
4.536
5.260
-14%
50%
2.22
833
785
6%
68%
293
2.754
3.966
7,3x
PVS
8.900
12.613
-29%
40%
4.15
580
886
-35%
60%
240
2.522
2.667
6,8x
Ngun: PVN, VNDIRECT
GAS - Doanh thu 6 thng u nm 2016 ca GAS c tnh t 51%

kt hoch nm trong khi li nhun sau thu ch t 45% k hoch
nm. Trong iu kin gi du thc t thp hn k hoch, tng sn
lng l bin php duy nht b p st gim v gi. Ngun kh t
b Cu Long c cung cp cho cc khch hng d kin t gn 800
www.vndirect.com.vn
40
triu m3 kh, vt mc cao so vi k hoch 6 thng u nm 2016

(khong 136%) v tng khong trn 30% so vi cng k nm 2015,
Title: thu v li nhun ca PV GAS. D tnh Qu
gp phn gia tng doanh
Source:
3 nm 2016, GAS s
t LNST khong 1.522 t ng, tng ng
LNST c tnh Q3/2016 (t ng)

1.522
EPS l 795 ng/c phiu.
GAS
21
42
DCM
PET
130
79
PVD
PVT
293
240
DPM
PVS
Ngun: PVN
GAS s c hng li trong iu kin nhu cu tiu th kh thin

nhin ca Vit Nam ang gia tng nhanh chng, c bit l nhu cu
cho pht in v trong dn dng - cng nghip. Mt khc, trong di
hn, cc c hi thu gom - vn chuyn kh cho GAS s c tm thy
trong cc d n thm d - khai thc kh ln Vit Nam nh block B Omon v C Voi Xanh. Chng ti nh gi GAS l mt cng ty c tim
nng tng trng cao ngay c trong iu kin bt li ca gi du.
DPM - Nhu cu tiu th trong 6 thng u nm tng cao dn n sn
lng ca DPM tng 13% trong cng k. Mt khc, DPM ang c
hng li t hng tn kho gi thp khi gi du i xung cng thm gi
bn cao hn cc i th khc nh nhn hiu c tin dng. Nh
vy, kt qu doanh thu ca DPM 6 thng u nm t 50% k hch
nm trong khi li nhun sau thu t 68% k hoch nm. D tnh trong
Qu 3 nm nay, DPM s t khong 293 t LNST, tng ng vi
EPS 749 ng/c phiu.
EPS Q3/2016 (ng/c phiu)
PVD - Tnh trng gi du tip tc dao ng mc di 50 USD/thng

dn n cc chin dch khoan u b dng trin khai hoc gin tin
795
Title:
749
537
485
373
310
39
GAS
DCM
PET
PVD
PVT
DPM
PVS
EPS Q3/2016 (ng/cp)
Ngun: PVN
khin cho nhiu ginSource:

khoan trn th gii trong tnh trng tht nghip.
Trong tng s 6 gin khoan s hu, hin PV Drilling c 2 gin khoan
l PV DRLLING I v PV DRILLING V hot ng lin tc, cn gin PV
DRILLING III v PV DRILLING VI ch khoan trong thi gian ngn, ng
thi mt s cc dch v k thut khc cng gim khi lng cng vic
hoc/v tm dng cung cp.
Chng ti so snh kt qu kinh doanh 6 thng ca PVD vi phng
n doanh thu khi gi du di 60 USD/thng (k hoch doanh thu
5.000 t v li nhun sau thu 100 t) th kt qu kinh doanh 6 thng
u nm ca PVD kh n tng vi doanh thu t 53% k hoch v
li nhun t 74% k hoch. Tuy nhin theo cng ty th con s li
nhun c tnh theo phng php khu hao mi. Trng hp cng
ty khng thay i phng php khu hao th 6 thng u nm 2016,
PVD s l khong 203 t ng. Qu 3 nm 2016, PVD t k hoch
t 130 t LNST, EPS t 373 ng/c phiu. V di hn, PVD c
k vng nhiu do PVN c k hoch tng chi tiu trong hot ng sn
xut v thm d ln 30%. Hin nay, PVD thng thu v chun b
tin n k kt hp ng cung cp gin khoan cho chin dch khoan
ca Total ti Myanmar.
PVS - Gi du thp nh hng kh nhiu trong kt qu kinh doanh
nm 2016. Khch hng ang tm kim dch v r hn, khin cho
doanh thu mng cung cp dch v du kh ch bng 68% so vi cng
k nm ngoi khi gi du ang mc 50 - 60 USD/thng. Trong 6
thng u nm, PVS c 4 tu dng/chy ngn hn do thiu vic lm;
www.vndirect.com.vn
41
i vi cc tu hin ang c hp ng, khch hng tip tc yu cu

gim gi su hoc yu cu thay bng tu c cng sut nh hn vi
n gi thp hn; i vi cc hp ng cho cc nhu cu mi, khch
hng khng ng ch nh cho DVKT nh trc y m yu cu
cho gi cnh tranh lm gim ng k c hi tham gia cung cp dch
v; khch hng yu cu loi tu cha c trong i tu ca dch v k
thut nh loi 3.000-4.000 BHP hoc 6.000 BHP.
Doanh thu v LNST hp nht 6 thng u nm t 40% v 60% k
hoch nm. D kin Qu 3 nm 2016, LNST t 240 t ng, tng
ng EPS 537 ng/c phiu.
PVT - Kt qu kinh doanh ca PVT n tng nht trong s cc cng
ty k ni trn. Nguyn nhn ch yu l do l t gi gim mnh, ch cn
khong 40% so vi mc l t gi nm 2015. Thm vo , gi du r
dn ti chi ph nhin liu r, c li cho cc hp ng vn chuyn ti
ch. Trong 6 thng u nm, doanh thu v LNST ca PVT t 62% v
78% k hoch nm v tng trng 18% v 25% so vi cng k nm
ngoi. c tnh Qu 3 nm nay, LNST ca PVT t 79 t, tng
ng EPS l 310 ng/c phiu.
Din bin gi c phiu du kh
T nm 2015, din bin gi ca nhm c phiu du c mi tng
quan kh cht ch vi din bin gi du. Xu hng ny vn ang tip
tc v s din ra trong thi gian ti. Da vo mc tng quan vi
gi du v d bo din bin gi du, cng thm kt qu kinh doanh 6
thng u nm kh quan, chng ti cho rng ch s nhm cc c phiu
du kh c th tng nh trong Qu 3 nm nay. Ngoi ra, tim nng
tng gi ca c phiu du kh s c h tr trong iu kin i ln
ca th trng chng khon v cc thng tin bt ng t cc doanh
nghip.
Bin ng gi du, ch s nhm c phiu du kh v VNINDEX
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Gi du Brent
Ch s nhm c phiu du kh
VNINDEX
Ngun: VNDIRECT, Bloomberg
www.vndirect.com.vn
42
www.vndirect.com.vn
43
BCCL Q3/2016 Ngnh Chng khon
3. NGNH CHNG KHON

K vng th trng nh gi ng hn v kt qu kinh doanh ca
nhm ngnh chng khon.
4.000
600
3.000
400
2.000
200
1.000
0
T ng
Gi tr giao dch bnh qun ngy v doanh

thu m i gii
0
Q1/2014
Q1/2015
Q1/2016
VNINDEX
UPCOMINDEX
HNXINDEX
Doanh thu mi gii cc cng ty (phi)
Ngun: VNDIRECT
TTCK giao dch kh si ng trong 6 thng u nm vi gi tr

giao dch bnh qun ngy tng mnh 23% so vi cng k. K vng
iu ny mang li tng
Title: trng mnh v doanh thu mi gii ca
Source:
cc CTCK.
Thanh khon ca TTCK c ci thin ngay t nhng ngy u
nm 2016. Trong Q1,
gi tr giao dch bnh qun ngy t 2.829 t
ng, cao hn 20% so vi cng k. Doanh thu t ph mi gii Q1 ca
ton ngnh tng 12% yoy, trong ni bt cc cng ty c mc tng
trng doanh thu mi gii cao bao gm HCM (48,0%); MBS (39,3%);
SSI (30,5%); VND (39,3%)
Tng trng doanh thu m i gii Qu 1
80,0%
64,7%
60,0%
43,0%
48,0%
39,3%
40,0%
Gi tr giao dch bnh qun ngy Q2 (20142016)
20,0%
12,0%
30,5%
28,5%
9,7%
5,1%
0,0%
3.500
-20,0%
T ng
3.000
-40,0%
2.500
2.000
-60,0%
1.500
Tng
1.000
500
Source:
-25,2% -29,9%
Q2/2014
Q2/2015
HNXINDEX
UPCOMINDEX
Q2/2016
VNINDEX
Hot ng cho vay k qu trong Q1 (20152016)

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
Li t cho vay v phi thu Q1/2015

Li t cho vay v phi thu Q1/2016
Tng trng yoy
Ngun: VNDIRECT
www.vndirect.com.vn
-21,4%
Q1/2016
Ngun: VNDIRECT tnh ton, BCTCDN
Ngun: VNDIRECT
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-9,4%
-19,2%
-37,3%
-49,9%
BSIPlease
BVSfill inCTS
HCM above
MBSto have
SHS them
SSIentered
VDSin your
VNDreport
the values
Q1/2015
T ng
-0,8%Title:
-0,8%
-5,6%
-16,9%
Thanh khon tip tc tng ln trong Q2/2016, gi tr giao dch bnh

qun ngy t 3.119 t ng, cao hn 24,4% so vi cng k 2015,
mc tng trng cn n tng hn Q1/2016. Do vy, chng ti k
vng rng doanh thu t hot ng mi gii ca cc cng ty chng
khon s tip tc c s ci thin v phn nh kt qu kinh doanh 6
thng u nm tch cc.
Doanh thu li t hot ng cho vay k qu d kin s duy tr c
mc tng trng tt so vi cng k khi d n margin trong Q2 ca
mt s cng ty chng
Title:khon vn mc tng ng vi Q1, theo
cc thng tin chng Source:
ti thu thp c.
Hot ng t doanh khng cn ng vai tr ln i vi KQKD
ca mt s CTCK ln
(nh HCM, VND). Hot ng mi gii v cho
vay k qu mi l ngun thu chnh ca cc cng ty ny, vi t trng
doanh thu hn 70%. Mt s t cc CTCK cn duy tr t trng hot ng
t doanh ln nh SHS, VIX, MBS Mc d cha c s liu chnh xc
v danh mc t doanh ca cc CTCK trong Q2, nhng nhn chung
vic TTCK tng im mnh trong sut 6 thng u nm l mi trng
tch cc i vi hot ng ny.
44
BCCL Q3/2016 Ngnh Chng khon
T ng
Quy m danh m c t doanh (khon m c chng khon giao dch ca thnh vin
lu k)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SSI
VND
SHS
HCM
MBS
AGR
BVS
BSI
CTS
VDS
VIX
TVS
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Din bin VNINDEX v ch s nhm ngnh

chng khon (31/12/2015=100)
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
T12/15
T1/16
T3/16
T4/16
VNINDEX
T5/16
T6/16
T6/16
Chng khon
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Cc quy nh ca thng t 203/2015/TT-BTC
C hiu lc t 1/7/2016
Ch thm hng dn
c php t lnh mua

t lnh giao dch chng
bn ng thi cng 1 loi
khon ang ch v
chng khon
Khng cm y quyn giao Bn khng c phiu trong
dch chng khon
ngy
Nh u t NN khng c CTCK c cung cp
giao dch k qu
dch v to lp th trng
UPCOM c giao dch k
qu
Sit cht mua bn CP qu
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Quy m qun l ti sn ca khch hng

T ng
Din bin gi ca nhm chng khon lch pha vi VNINDEX :

VNINDEX tri qua 5 thng trong chu k tng gi tuy nhin dng
chng khon li khng
Title: c c tng tng t thm ch cn gim
so vi mc u nm,Source:
c bit l xu th i ngang ca nhm ngnh ny
trong Qu 2. Nhm ngnh chng khon l nhm ngnh c nhy rt
ln vi th trng do vy vic xut hin tr so vi ch s c th s
in the
above
to havechng
them entered
in your
reportbi
l c hi u t hpPlease
dn fill
i
vivalues
nhm
ngnh
khon
trong
cnh kt qu kinh doanh 6 thng u nm s tch cc.
Giao dch T0 cha c a vo thc hin ngay, nhng thng
t hng dn ra i trong tng lai s mang yu t h tr v
mt tm l:
Thng t s 203/2015/TT-B TC s chnh thc i vo hiu lc trong
thng 7/2016, tuy nhin mt s khon mc s phi ch thm thng tin
hng dn nh giao dch T0, bn khng c phiu, dch v to lp th
trng.
Trong s cc khon mc, vic cho php giao dch T0 v bn khng c
phiu c nhiu NT k vng nht, v cng nhiu kh nng nh
hng tch cc n thanh khon ca th trng. Chng ti cho rng,
thi im cc vn bn hng dn hoc cc thng tin lin quan n
giao dch T0 c th c cng b trong 6 thng cui nm, v l yu
t tm l h tr tch cc cho cc c phiu ngnh chng khon.
Li th s dnh cho nhng cng ty c s chun b k lng: Giao
dch T0, chng khon phi sinh yu cu s chun b tt v mt nhn
s, cng ngh v ngun vn t pha cc CTCK. Do vy, t nm ngoi,
rt nhiu cng ty tng cng pht trin v mt cng ngh, huy ng
thm vn ch s hu nhm p ng cc iu kin cho cc hot
ng giao dch mi ny.
Ch s ti chnh m t s cng ty chng khon nim yt
30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
Ngun: VNDIRECT, BCTCDN
BSI
BVS
CTS
HCM
MBS
SHS
SSI
TVS
VDS
VIX
VND
Gi CP ngy
P/E
P/B
ROE
ROA
Title: KLGDBQ (CP)
30/06 (VND)
Source:
8.800
11.583
6,80x
0,86x
13,03%
6,06%
12.800
114.330
9,36x
0,63x
6,88%
4,82%
6.800
72.334
6,73x
0,56x
8,61%
6,92%
29.900
827.372
16,71x
1,65x
10,14%
7,28%
Please fill in the
values above
to have them
entered
in your report
5.900
85.512
37,83x
0,55x
1,44%
0,60%
6.100
258.819
5,24x
0,60x
11,96%
3,70%
20.800
1.724.080
11,23x
1,48x
13,58%
7,28%
11.500
5.248
7,78x
1,03x
13,17%
9,33%
8.000
8.161
13,19x
0,77x
5,23%
2,54%
6.900
1.441.509
3,24x
0,60x
11,59%
10,26%
11.700
704.019
10,05x
0,87x
8,95%
3,59%
Ngun: VNDIRECT
www.vndirect.com.vn
45
BCCL Q3/2016 Ngnh BS Khu cng nghip
Din tch KCN m in Bc
4. NGNH BS KHU CNG NGHIP
n v: ha
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Title:
Chng ti nhn nh
cc DN KCN s c t tng trng mnh
Source:
trong thi gian vng 1-2 nm ti da vo trin vng tng trng
vn FDI qua cc Hip nh thng mi t do (FTAs), ngun lao
ng gi r v khPlease
nngfilllinh
trongto have
ccthem
snentered
phm
cung
cp
in the hot
values above
in your
report
cho th trng.
Trin vng th trng BS Khu cng nghip

Ngun: VNDIRECT
Din tch KCN m in Nam

n v: ha
18000
15000
12000
9000
6000
3000
0
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Cc Hip nh thng mi t do (FTAs) hay Hip nh i tc

xuyn Thi Bnh Dng (TTP) s l tin pht trin cho bt ng
sn KCN khi cc tp on ln ca th gii bt u chuyn dch
nh xng v khu sn xut sang Vit Nam. Trong bn k kt TPP
c quy nh r v quy tc xut x, theo cc loi vi v hng may
mc xut khu phi c ngun gc nguyn liu t cc nc tham gia
vo Hip nh. Do , rt nhiu nh u t nc ngoi ln k hoch
u t n u c hi ny v trong nhiu nht l cc nh u
t n t Trung Quc, i Loan, v Hng Kng.
Nhu cu tng mnh nhng KCN c v tr cch 30km t cc nh
my ca cc tp on ln nh Samsung hay LG hoc nhng KCN
Title:
c gi thu t cnh
tranh, t cnh tranh v ngun lao ng, cho
Source:
php lm dt may. C th, cc KCN quanh Khu cng ngh cao ca
Samsung u c t l lp y trn 90% nh Qu V Bc Ninh hay
Long Thnh ngPlease
Nai. fill
Cc
KCN
c
ln sng
in the
valuesn
aboveu
to have
them entered
in youru
report t
vo ngnh dt may c t l lp y tng nhanh, v d KCN Nhn
Trch nhn c kh nhiu yu cu thu t cc doanh nghip
may mc m trong cng on sn xut c khu nhum. Cc KCN
trn d bo s tip tc c tng trng t 8 10% gi thu t v 11
15% gi thu nh xng. Mt s v d ni bt, KCN Qu V m rng
c gi tng t 65 USD/m2/thi hn thu ln 72 USD/m2/thi hn thu
trong 2016; KCN VSIP II m rng c gi tng t 55 USD/m2/thi hn
thu ln 60 USD/m2/thi hn thu; khu nh xng KCN Qu V hay
Long Thnh cng u tng gi ln lt t 2,5 ln 3 USD/m2/thng.
Ngun cung c xu th tng mnh trong 3 nm ti n u cc
chnh sch thu ht u t ca Chnh ph v ln sng cc hip nh
thng mi. a phn nhng d n t KCN c ch u t v ang
trong giai on thu ht vn n b gii ta hay san lp mt bng.
Cc chnh sch thu ht u ca nh nc, vic thng lng v k
Gi thu KCN m in Bc
120
100%
90%
100
80%
70%
80
60%
60
50%
40%
40
30%
20%
20
10%
0
0%
KCN Nomura
KCN Thng
Long 2
KCN Thng
Long
KCN Hanaka
KCN Nam
Thng Long
KCN Nam Cu
Kin
Gi thu t USD/m2
KCN Khai
Quang
KCN Trng Du
KCN Bnh
Xuyn
KCN nh V
T l lp y (%)
Ngun: VNDIRECT
www.vndirect.com.vn
46
kt cc hip nh thng mi t do, d n m rng ca Samsung

Khu cng ngh cao l ng lc thc y tin hon thin cc KCN
n u ln sng u t mi ny. Do , t l ngun cung tng d
kin trong ba nm ti d kin ln lt l 5,8%, 7,6% v 10,6%.
Gi thu trung bnh

80
60
40
20
0
Mekong Delta
Min Bc
Min Nam
Gi thu t TB USD/m2/thi gian thu

Gi thu nh xng TB USD/m2/thng
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Title:
Ngun cung nh xng
trong cc KCN c d bo tng trung
Source:
bnh 6% mi nm trong giai on 2016 2018. C th l nhng ch
u t ln nh Khu Ch xut Tn Thun (16.000 m2), KCN Tn Ph
Trung v Tn (65.000
m2), Mapletree (35.000 m2), Tn Ngha
(101.480 m2) s hon thnh v c tung ra th trng trong nm
2016. Cc ch u t tp trung xy dng nh xng theo hnh thc
cun chiu do khi cc d n giai on 1 c lp y th h mi
tip tc trin khai cc d n tip theo.
Nhm thu ht ti a cc nh u t vo KCN ca mnh, cc ch

u t cng a dng ha cc sn phm v linh hot hn v cc
iu khon thng mi. C th nh KCN Qu V cho thu nhng
din tch t nh hn t 3.000 m2 5.000m2, KCN Hip Phc t
1.000m2 1.500 m2 hay din tch nh xng cho thu nh t 250 m2
nh cc KCN Kizuna ti Tn Kim, Mapletree, KCN Giang in hay
KCN Long c. Gi cho thu cng linh hot ty vo thi hn thanh
ton, din tch thu hay gi thu trn gi. Nh KCN Qu V cng
cho bn gi thu trn gi nh xng vo khong 230 USD/m2/trn
gi.
Hot ng cho thu t KCN s c y mnh hn nu nh
Thng t hng dn xc nh n gi cho thu t ng tin mt
ln c trin khai sau k hp Quc hi thng 7. Lut t ai 2013
c hiu lc t 1/7/2014 quy nh ch khi doanh nghip h tng ng
tin thu t mt ln cho Nh nc th cc nh u t th cp mi
c thu li vi hnh thc tr tin thu t mt ln v c cp s
s dng vay vn ngn hng. Trong khi hu ht cc doanh
nghip h tng nh ITA, KBC, Becamex u ang ng tin thu t
cho Nh nc hng nm, vic ng tin mt ln vn cha c Thng
t hng dn xc nh gi t, cc khon gim tr.
Gi thu KCN m in Nam
300
100%
90%
250
80%
70%
200
60%
150
50%
40%
100
30%
20%
50
10%
0
0%
KCX Tn Thun KCN Tn To KCN Bnh Chiu KCN Dt may KCN Linh Trung KCN L Minh KCN Sng Thn
Bnh An
II
II
Xun
Gi thu t USD/m2
KCN Vit
Hng I
KCN Vit Nam

Singapore
KCN Hip
Phc
T l lp y (%)
Ngun: VNDIRECT
www.vndirect.com.vn
47
Trin vng cc doanh nghip Bt ng sn Khu cng nghip

Doanh thu ca cc doanh nghip bt ng sn KCN c mi tng
quan ln vi dng vn FDI thc hin v s doanh nghip ng
k vo Vit Nam. Tuy nhin, mi tng quan ny ch thc s r rt
vi cc doanh nghip c din tch KCN ln cng nh thng hiu tt
trn th trng. Cc doanh nghip c tng quan ln vi dng vn
FDI bao gm KBC, SZL, v LHG (h s tng quan cao vi dng vn
FDI thc hin ln lt l 0,68, 0,71 v 0,74 im). y l nhm c
k vng s hng li nhiu hn t s gia tng ca dng vn FDI.
Trong khi , nhm cc doanh nghip IDV, ITA, D2D ang c mi
tng quan kh thp i vi dng vn FDI.
Vi tc tng trng vn FDI cao nh trong thi gian gn y,
cc KCN d bo s c tng trng doanh thu tt trong na cui
nm 2016 2017, c bit l nhm doanh nghip c tng quan
ln vi FDI. Cc doanh nghip c qu t ln v h thng h tng tt
s c hng li ln nht nh Kinh Bc (KBC), Long Hu (LHG),
Becamex, Tng cng ty Sonadezi (bao gm hai cng ty thnh vin
trn sn l SZL v D2D), CIPCO.
Danh m c cc KCN ca KBC, ITA v LHG
KCN Qu V
KCN Qu V m rng
KCN Trng Ct
KCN Nam Sn Hp Lnh
KCN Trng Du I
KCN Trng Du II
KCN Trng Du III
KCN Ty Bc C Chi
KCN Quang Chu
KCN Long Hu hin hu
KCN Long Hu m rng
KCN Long Hu III
KCN Tn To
KCN Tn c I
KCN Tn c II
M CK
Tng din tch (ha)
T l lp y
KBC
KBC
KBC
KBC
KBC
KBC
KBC
KBC
KBC
LHG
LHG
LHG
ITA
ITA
ITA
311.00
300.00
581.90
432.50
186.00
214.00
300.00
542.00
426.00
137.02
108.48
123.00
443.00
275.00
214.29
95%
63%
0%
0%
99%
28%
0%
23%
27%
94%
69%
0%
90%
90%
20%
Thng phm cn
li (ha)
10.89
77.70
407.33
302.75
1.30
107.86
210.00
292.14
218.70
5.75
23.54
86.10
31.01
19.25
120.00
Ghi ch
GPMB
GPMB
Ph duyt d n
Ph duyt d n
Ngun: VNDIRECT
KBC l doanh nghip c d a tng trng ln v c chng

ti a thch nht khi DN ny tip tc m rng qu t vi cc d n
ln nh KCN Trng Ct, KCN Tn Ph Trung, KCN Trng Du III,
KCN Quang Chu v KCN Ty Bc C Chi. Ngoi KBC, LHG v ITA
cng c kh nng m rng cc KCN hin hu, tuy nhin quy m m
rng mc kh nh so vi KBC.
Ri ro
Vi xu hng gia tng qu t v gim bt n trong thi gian
gn y, cc DN ny u c nhu cu tng vn do ri ro pha
long kh cao. C th l KBC thng qua tng vn 120 triu c
phn vi gi khng thp hn 15.000 VND/CP hay ITA tng 100 triu
c phn. Chnh v vy, khi u t cc c phiu ny nh u t nn
thn trng v ri ro pha long.
www.vndirect.com.vn
48
BCCL Q3/2016 BS Nh
5. NGNH BS NH
Din bin th trng
S lng cn h giao dch v t l hp th
theo phn khc ti TP. HCM
Ngun: Savills Research
S lng cn h giao dch theo phn khc

v t l hp th ti H Ni
Th trng bt ng sn thnh ph H Ch Minh c nhiu du

hiu tch cc trong Qu 2/2016. S liu ca Savills Vit Nam cho
thy s lng cn h bn c t 6.900 cn, tng 10% so vi qu
trc v 34% so vi cng k. T l hp th gi nguyn mc 17% t
u nm n hin ti, cho thy th trng ang hp th tt lng cn
h mi c tung ra trong qu.
Hng trung cp vn chim lnh th trng vi 49% tng giao dch, trong
khi tnh hnh hot ng ca hng cao cp ci thin ln, bn c 330
cn. Gi cho bn cao nht hng trung cng tng mnh t 30 tr
VND/m2 ln hn 40 tr VND/m 2, phn nh xu hng tng trong lc cu
ca phn khc ny. Trong khi , gi bn phn khc cao c p v bnh
dn khng c nhiu bin ng.
Th trng H Ni ghi nhn khi lng giao dch ln. S cn h
giao dch thnh cng tng 7% ln 6.000 cn h, tng ng vi mc
tng 30% so vi cng k, chim 35% lng cho bn. S lng cn
h hng trung chim 73% tng lng giao dch, dn u trong s cc
phn khc (theo Savills). Gi cho bn cc cn h hng trung v cao
cp u tng nh trong khi gi trung bnh cc cn h bnh dn khng
thay i.
Nhn chung, th trng cn h trong Q2/2016 t mc tng
trng tt, cho thy nhu cu mua nh l thc cht v n nh,
nhng c s phn ha r rng, tp trung vo mt s phn khc. Lng
giao dch thnh cng ch yu l phn khc trung cao cp, c bit
l cc d n c tin xy dng tt, ch u t uy tn v chnh sch
thanh ton linh hot.
Trin vng tng trng
Ngun: Savills Research
D bo trong 2H/2016 th trng nh s si ng hn do nhu

cu mua nh vo cc thng cui nm thng tng. Tc th
ha cc thnh ph ln cao, kt hp vi c cu dn s tr, quy m
h gia nh thu hp v thu nhp bnh qun u ngi tng ln cng l
cc yu t thc y sc mua ca khch hng. Ngoi ra, nhu cu mua
cn h u t cng tng mnh khi th trng bt ng sn dn
nng ln.
D bo ngun cung nh ti hai thnh ph ln H Ni v H Ch
Minh kh di do, vi trng tm nm phn khc trung cp. Theo
Savills, thnh ph H Ch Minh k vng s n nhn khong 35.000
cn h mi t Q3/2016 n ht 2018. Ngun cung tng lai trong
ngn hn s n t cc khu vc c h tng giao thng tt, kt ni
thun tin vi trung tm thnh ph v cc d n dc tuyn tu in
ngm ang c trin khai.
Tng t ti H Ni, khu vc pha Ty vi c s h tng ng b
v cc nt giao thng quan trng d bo s cung cp nhiu cn
h nht trong na cui nm 2016. D kin 22.000 cn t 41 d n
s c m bn, trong phn khc cn h hng trung chim
t trng ln.
www.vndirect.com.vn
49
BCCL Q3/2016 BS Nh
Ngun cung cnh tranh ti phn khc cao cp trong khi ngun
cu vn duy tr s khin gi bnh qun phn khc cao cp khng
dao ng nhiu. Trong khi gi nh phn khc trung cp v bnh
dn c xu hng tng nh. K vng trong qu ti gi phn khc ny
s duy tr tng 2-3% do ngun cung vn cha p ng c nhu cu.
Mt s d n c th ghi nhn mc gi tng t 5-6%.
V mt chnh sch, nn tng kinh t tng trng n nh v cc chnh
sch h tr v n nh li sut, quy hoch th, nng cp c s h
tng ca Chnh ph s gp phn to mi trng lnh mnh cho ngnh
bt ng sn pht trin.
Hai im ng ch l quyt nh ca Chnh ph gia hn gii ngn
gi vay 30.000 t ng cho khch hng c nhn n ht nm v ban
hnh Thng t 06 gim bt p lc c cu li ngun vn cho vay ngn
hn trung v di hn. Cc chnh sch ny u c tc ng tch cc
n tm l ch u t v c cc khch hng mua nh.
Lut Nh sa i c hiu lc t thng 7/2015 cho php cc c nhn
v t chc nc ngoi s hu nh ti Vit Nam s tip tc c tc
ng thc y ngun cu trn th trng. Bn cnh , mt bng li
sut kh n nh ng vai tr h tr tt i vi th trng.
Ri ro th trng
T trng cho vay Bt ng sn, Xy dng
ca m t s NH
Ngnh BS
% YoY
Ngnh XD
VCB
N/A
N/A
5.50%
29.9%
BID
6.87%
30.01%
11.02%
-6.59%
% YoY
CTG
7.90%
56.33%
10.97%
55.80%
ACB
1.90%
12.20%
4.08%
27.95%
SHB
7.10%
17.14%
14.71%
26.29%
MBB
3.84%
8.24%
8.84%
21.35%
EIB
N/A
N/A
6.10%
-29.70%
NVB
N/A
N/A
38.24%
108.55%
Ngun: BCTC cc NH
D a tn dng cho vay kinh doanh bt ng sn vn cn nhiu,

tuy vy quy trnh cp vn ca cc ngn hng s dn sit cht hn
sau TT06. Quy nh t l vn ngn hn cho vay trung di hn ca
cc ngn hng gim dn t 60% n 40% trong vng 2 nm ti s
gy kh khn hn cho cc ch u t trong vic tip cn dng tin.
Cc ch u t nh c th cn phi vn dng cc ngun lc bn ngoi
cho cc d n mi, v d nh huy ng vn t c ng hin hu hoc
pht hnh tri phiu.
Ri ro v tnh php l ca d n BS vn tn ti nh hng n
tm l ca ngi mua. V vy cc d n c ch u t uy tn hoc
c bo lnh bi ngn hng s c li th hn trong vic cho bn
ti khch hng.
C phiu ngnh bt ng sn
Hin ti c khong hn 60 doanh nghip hot ng kinh doanh trong
lnh vc bt ng sn c nim yt trn sn chng khon. Chim
lnh th trng phn khc bt ng sn nh nhn chung l
cc doanh nghip c ngun vn ln, tnh hnh ti chnh tt, qu
t sch v nm cc v tr thun li. C th k n cc doanh
nghip in hnh nh Tp on Vingroup (VIC), CTCP u t Nam
Long (NLG), a c t Xanh (DXG) v CTCP u t Kinh doanh nh
Khang in (KDH).
Doanh thu ca cc cng ty bt ng sn thng mang tnh ma v,
vi Qu 4 ghi nhn doanh thu cao nht do cui nm nhu cu mua nh
tng, v Qu 1 u nm l thp nht. Trong s 15 doanh nghip bt
ng sn nh vn ha th trng ln nht m chng ti tng hp th
c 12 doanh nghip ghi nhn c tng trng li nhun Q1/2016
tch cc so vi cng k 2015. Mc tng trng ln nht n t DRH,
SCR, ASM v NBB.
www.vndirect.com.vn
50
BCCL Q3/2016 BS Nh
Chng ti cho rng trong ngn hn, cc doanh nghip bt ng

sn phn khc trung cao cp s duy tr c mc thanh
khon tt v ghi nhn c doanh thu kh quan. in hnh cho
cc doanh nghip ny l VIC v KDH vi cc d n Vinhomes Central
Park v chui d n Mega Village, Mega Sapphire. SDI, cng ty con
ca VIC cng c d n chung c, bit th v nh ph Vinhomes
Gardenia ang m bn v ghi nhn c tc bn hng vt tri.
Ngoi ra, cc doanh nghip ny cn c hng li t cc quy hoch
nng cp c s h tng nh tuyn metro s 1, ng Vnh ai 2 ti
thnh ph H Ch Minh v tuyn metro, tu in ngm trn cao ti H
Ni.
V mt di hn, cc doanh nghip c kh nng tng trng tt s
l doanh nghip c qu t ln vi chi ph gi vn r, nm cc
v tr thun li. Chng ti nh gi trin vng di hn tch cc cho
mt s cng ty nh: VIC, NTL, NLG, HDG v BCI.
Top 15 cng ty bt ng sn nh theo vn ha th trng
M CP
Vn ha th
Vn ch s
trng (t ng)
hu
Hng tn
kho/Vn
CSH
N
vay/Tng
TS
LN rng
Q1/2015 (t
ng)
LN rng
Q1/2016 (t
ng)
Tng
trng LN
Q1 2015-16
EPS
BVPS
P/B P/E
VIC
109.815,18
40.979,28
0,62
0,72
427,94
778,65
82%
735
SDI
5.241,78
2.639,80
0,52
0,56
209,04
357,09
71%
4.474
23.200 2,3
KDH
4.086,00
4.217,69
1,36
0,48
52,31
93,60
79%
2.052
14.427 1,2 10,9
ASM
3.387,07
2.463,10
0,43
0,39
10,02
26,85
168%
610
12.116 1,4 23,4
NLG
3.199,53
2.402,47
1,50
0,50
34,55
41,57
20%
1.511
14.575 1,4 14,2
FLC
3.232,22
6.472,04
0,08
0,40
93,48
115,94
24%
1.968
12.214 0,6
DRH
3.136,00
222,94
0,00
0,52
0,27
3,13
PDR
2.946,43
2.287,88
2,83
0,72
24,77
25,22
HQC
2.218,32
4.052,81
0,19
0,37
30,63
51,56
SJS
2.297,77
2.008,92
1,40
0,64
9,44
15,00
SCR
2.170,68
3.053,06
0,92
0,47
2,18
5,91
BCI
2.063,94
2.011,93
1,10
0,39
9,76
DXG
1.946,58
1.709,12
0,65
0,54
36,60
NBB
1.073,11
1.261,82
0,82
0,65
0,62
CEO
1.049,95
990,03
37,14
1051%
11.199 4,3 73,6

9,8
3,7
792
10.260 5,3 69,4
2%
1.022
23.432 1,3 17,5
68%
2.732
21.636 0,6
3,0
59%
2.273
16.970 1,1
9,8
172%
1.075
11.337 0,7 11,1
9,27
-5%
3.682
14.065 1,0
7,2
29,44
-20%
3.052
21.999 1,2
5,6
1,42
130%
746
21,74
20.089 0,9 25,3
0,61
0,64
-41%
2.095
21.125 0,9
Trung v
0,65
0,52
68%
1.968
14.575 1,2 10,9
5,7
Trung bnh
bnh
Trung
(loi tr
VIC/DRH)
0,87
0,53
124%
1.921
16.576 1,6 19,3
0,89
0,52
127%
2.006
16.960 1,1 11,3
Ngun: Bloomberg, VNDIRECT tng hp
www.vndirect.com.vn
51
BCCL Q3/2016 VLXD Gch p lt
6. NGNH VT LIU XY DNG - GCH P LT

Vit Nam l quc gia c cng sut sn xut gch p lt hng u
th gii
Sn lng sn xut gch p lt ca Vit Nam
500
400
300
200
100
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Sn lng (triu m2)
Ngun: ACIMAC v VNDIRECT tng hp
Phn b cng sut sn xut gch p lt
Theo Bo co ca Hip hi cc nh sn xut my mc v thit b cho

ngnh ceramic Italy (ACIMAC), nm 2014, Vit Nam sn xut 360 triu
Title: th 8 th gii. Nm 2015, sn lng tip tc
m2 gch p lt v ng
Source:
tng ln mc 420 triu m2 trong xut khu khong 70 triu m2 v
tiu th trong nc khong 350 triu m2.
T giai on 2013 2015, ngnh gch p lt phc hi thc y cc
Cng ty m rng nh my cng nh hp dn cc nh u t mi m
in hnh l Vitto (cng sut 36 triu m2/nm) v Tasa (cng sut 24
triu m2/nm). Theo bo co ca Hip hi Gm s xy dng Vit
Nam, tng cng sut ti a ca cc nh my sn xut gch p lt ti
Vit Nam l 500 triu m2.
Cc nh my gch p lt tp trung nhiu cc tnh Vnh Phc, Ph
Th, Thi Bnh v Hi Dng nhm tn dng li th gn ngun
Title:
nguyn liu. Cc tnh
c ngun nguyn liu di do cho gch p lt
Source:
gm c Ph Th, Hi Dng, Lo Cai v Vnh Phc.
Nhm Cng ty c cng sut ln nht Vit Nam (triu m2)
80
70
Min Bc
Min Nam
Min Trung
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Prime
Vitto
Tasa
Hon M Hong H
ng
Tm
Catalan
Toko
CMC
Th trng gch c bo h vi mc thu sut cao

Ngnh sn xut gch p lt c nhng bc tng trng mnh m
nh u t m rng sn xut v p dng cng ngh mi lm tng ln
c v cht lng cng nh s lng sn phm gch p lt. Cng vi
chnh sch bo h vi mc thu sut mc cao, ngnh sn xut gch
trong nc nh bi gch nhp khu v dnh li th phn. Theo
Hip hi Gm s xy dng Vit Nam, Nm 2015, gi tr ton ngnh
t doanh thu 3 t USD trong gi tr nhp khu ch ch c 71,5 triu
USD.
Biu thu sut nhp khu gch p lt
Thu sut
Thi gian
p dng
Thu nhp khu
35%
01/01/2014
ASEAN (ATIGA)
5%
01/01/2015
ASEAN - Trung Quc (ACFTA)
20%
01/01/2015
ASEAN - Hn Quc (AKFTA)
10%
01/01/2015
ASEAN - Nht Bn (AJCEP)
20%
01/01/2015
22.50%
01/01/2015
10%
01/01/2015
22.50%
01/01/2015
Thu
Vit Nam - Nht Bn (VJEPA)

ASEAN - c - Niu Di-Ln (AANZFTA)
ASEAN - n (AIFTA)
www.vndirect.com.vn
52
BCCL Q3/2016 VLXD Gch p lt
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Tiu th gch p lt tng trng mnh

Sn lng tiu th gch p lt ca Vit Nam
500
400
300
200
100
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Sn lng tiu th (triu m2)
Ngun: ACIMAC v VNDIRECT tng hp
Theo bo co ca ACIMAC, nm 2014, Vit Nam tiu th 310 triu m2

gch p lt v ng th 5 th gii v sn lng tiu th. Sn lng
Title: nm 2015 ln mc 450 triu m2. Sc tiu th
tiu th tng mnh trong
Source:
tng mnh l nh: (1) Nn kinh t phc hi kch thch ngi dn xy
dng v sa cha nh . (2) Th trng BS si ng vi thanh
khon tng mnh thc y cc nh nh cung cp BS hon thin
fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
cng trnh a raPlease
th trng.
Trin vng tng trng cho nhng Cng ty nhanh chng u t
m rng sn xut
Chng ti nh gi cao nhng Doanh nghip nhanh chng nhn ra
du hiu phc hi ca ngnh v mnh dn u t m rng sn xut
n u xu hng. Trong chng ti nh gi cao nht l Cng
ty C phn Viglacera Tin Sn (VIT) v Cng ty C phn CMC (CVT) .
VIT l cng ty sn xut gch granite hng u pha Bc trong khi
CVT l cng ty nm trong nhm 10 cng ty sn xut ln nht nc,
c chin lc a dng ha sn phm v nh vo nhng th trng
ngch. VIT v CVT c mc tng cng sut ln lt l 44% v 60%
trong nm 2016.
Ri ro d cung t nm 2018
Theo B xy dng, nm 2015, din tch bnh qun nh ton quc l
22 m2/ngi. Trong chin lc pht trin nh n nm 2020, B
xy dng ra mc tiu tng mc din tich bnh qun nh ton quc
ln 25 m2/ngi. c tnh din tch ni lm vic khong 10 m2/1
ngi. Dn s Vit Nam hin ti l 90 triu dn, tng ng vi din
tch sn cn thit l 3,15 t m2. Tnh t 2010, Vit Nam sn xut
1,7 t m2. Vi cng sut 550 triu m2/nm, trong vng 3 nm na
cc nh my s xut ra lng gch p lt p ng nhu cu v to
ra ri ro d cung t 2018.
Bn cnh ri ro d cung t 2018 th c hi vn dnh cho nhng doanh
nghip la chn c phn khc sn phm thiu ht ngun cung nh
gch granite, gch th hay tn dng c u th t cc hip nh
thng mi t do y mnh xut khu.
www.vndirect.com.vn
53
V. C PHIU KHUYN NGH
BCCL Q3/2016 C phiu khuyn ngh
CTCP CONTAINER VIT NAM (VSC)

Gi th trng
Gi mc tiu
T sut c tc
Khuyn ngh
VND79.000
1,56%
MUA
VND65.000
Trin vng ngn hn

Tiu cc
Tch cc
Tiu cc
Ngy 05/07/2016
quang.nguyenhong@vndirect.com.vn
Din bin gi
Gi iu chnh
Trung bnh
Tch cc
Tiu cc
Trung bnh
Tch cc
Cp nht tnh hnh hot ng cng mi VGP: Sn lng cng

VGP tng nhanh hn k vng, d phng lp y cng sut sau 2
nm hot ng. Theo thng tin t VSC, cng VGP bt u c li
trong Qu 2/2016 v c th c li khong 30 t VND trong nm 2016.
Nhng thng tin ny vt xa k vng ban u ca chng ti khi cho
rng cng VGP s l trong nm u hot ng v s cn 3 nm
lp y cng sut.
Nguyn Hng Quang, CFA
So vi ch s VNIndex (Bn phi)
83,000
187
78,000
175
73,000
162
68,000
150
63,000
137
58,000
125
53,000
112
48,000
100
43,000
4
87
3
2
Vol tr
nh gi
Trin vng di hn
Trung bnh
Ngnh
Cng nghip
Kt qu kinh doanh Qu 2/2016 c kh nng tt hn cng k 2015

do sn lng container ca c hai cng c th t mc 160.000
170.000 TEU, tng ng 85% tng cng sut. Do vy, chng ti
gi nguyn khuyn ngh Tng t trng v tng mc gi mc tiu
ln 79.000 VND/CP, tng ng vi mc P/E 2016 12,4x. (Gi mc
tiu ti Bo co Phn tch ngy 14/03/2016 l 72.000 VND/CP, gi
iu chnh).
1
07-15
09-15
10-15
12-15
02-16
04-16
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Thng tin c phiu

Cao nht 52 tun (VND)
Thp nht 52 tun (VND)
KLGDBQ (3thg)
Th gi vn (t VND)
SL CP ang lu hnh (tr)
Free float (%)
71.505
34.785
51,701tr
2,984
45,557,646
94
Beta
C cu s hu
C ng
% S hu
Vietnam Holding Ltd
6.99
Swiftcurrent Offshore
6.28
Forum One - VCG
4.92
Deutsche AM Ltd
4.41
Trn Xun Bo
4.35
Ngun: VNDIRECT
www.vndirect.com.vn
K hoch chuyn i Green Depot (GD) thnh trung tm phn

phi (DC). VSC ang ln k hoch m rng mng DC do DC hin ti,
Green Logistics Center (GLC), y cng sut. DC mi c din tch
khong 15 ha, gip tng gp ba tng din tch cc DC ca VSC. Vic
ny s gip tng ng k doanh thu t mng DC. Doanh thu 2015 ca
mng DC l 121 t VND vi li nhun trc thu 30,5 t VND. Tuy
vy, DC H Ch Minh (10 ha) c kh nng cha em li li nhun
trong nm nay do vic xy dng lu hn d kin.
Trin vng 2016: Chng ti d phng cng VGP c th t hn 50%
cng sut, em li khong 400 t VND doanh thu v 46 t VND li
nhun sau thu. Tng trng tt t cng VGP s b p s hao ht
doanh thu v li nhun t mt hng container lnh (reefer). Tuy nhin
chi ph khu hao v chi ph li vay ln tip tc l gnh nng i vi
tng trng li nhun. Nm 2016, d phng Doanh thu t 1.350 t
VND (+45% yoy), li nhun sau thu t 301 t VND (+7,9% yoy).
Trong Q3/2016, VSC s a bn s 2 ca VGP vo hot ng. Vic
gnh thm chi ph khu hao c th lm bin li nhun ca Q3 st gim
so vi Q2. Nhng nhn chung chng ti cho rng VSC s t KQKD
rt tt trong 2 nm 2016, 2017.
Tng quan ti chnh (VND)
Doanh thu (t)
Tng trng DT
Bin li nhun gp
EBITDA thun (t)
LN rng (t)
Tng trng LN rng
LN trn c phiu
Gi tr s sch/cp
ROAE
12-14A
891
12.5%
35.0%
190
248
3.2%
8,610
30,641
25.6%
12-15A
928
4.1%
39.9%
232
272
9.6%
7,868
34,556
21.8%
12-16E
1,332
43.6%
28.8%
108
283
4.3%
6,518
36,728
18.3%
12-17E
1,641
23.2%
30.7%
215
409
44.1%
8,968
44,786
22.0%
Ngun: VNDIRECT
55
nh gi
Tng trng EPS (rhs)
Rolling P/E (x) (lhs)
Rolling P/B (x) (lhs)
ROAE (rhs)
10.8
0%
2.4
26%
9.8
-3%
2.2
25%
8.8
-5%
2.0
23%
7.8
-8%
1.8
22%
6.8
-10%
1.6
21%
5.8
-13%
4.8
-15%
1.4
20%
3.8
-18%
1.2
18%
-20%
1.0
01-13A
2.8
01-13A
07-13A
01-14A
07-14A
01-15A
07-15A
01-16E
07-16E
Bo co KQ HKD
(tVND)
Doanh thu
Gi vn hng bn
Chi ph qun l DN
Chi ph bn hng
LN hot ng thun
EBITDA thun
Chi ph khu hao
LN H trc thu & li vay
Thu nhp li
Chi ph ti chnh
Thu nhp rng khc
TN t cc Cty LK & LD
LN trc thu
Thu
Li ch c ng thiu s
LN rng
Thu nhp trn vn
C tc ph thng
LN cha phn phi
12-15A
927.8
(557.3)
(41.2)
(8.1)
321.3
231.5
89.7
321.3
14.5
(1.7)
2.0
0.0
336.1
(66.9)
2.6
271.8
271.8
0.0
271.8
12-16E
1,331.9
(948.6)
(56.8)
(3.3)
323.2
107.6
215.7
323.2
41.3
(27.6)
3.6
14.4
354.9
(59.6)
(11.8)
283.5
283.5
(41.4)
242.0
12-17E
1,641.2
(1,137.8)
(70.0)
(4.0)
429.4
215.0
214.4
429.4
74.1
(27.5)
6.4
25.8
508.2
(55.9)
(43.7)
408.5
408.5
(41.4)
367.1
Bo co LCTT
(tVND)
LN trc thu
Khu hao
Cc khon +/- (non cash) khc
Khon +/- khng thuc HKD
Thu np
LC tin t HKD khc
Thay i VL
LC tin thun HKD
u t TSC
Thu t TL, nhng bn TSC
Cc khon khc
Thay i ti sn di hn khc
LC tin t HT
Thu t PH CP, nhn gp VCSH
Tr vn gp CSH, mua CP qu
Tin vay rng nhn c
Dng tin t HTC khc
C tc, LN tr cho CSH
LC tin thun HTC
Tin & tng ng tin u k
LC tin thun trong nm
Tin & tng ng tin cui k
12-15A
336.1
89.7
0.0
(16.5)
(72.4)
13.6
(33.4)
317.1
(589.9)
22.1
(17.8)
6.0
(579.6)
22.9
0.0
411.6
0.0
(58.8)
375.7
216.0
113.2
329.2
12-16E
354.9
215.7
0.0
(59.3)
(59.6)
0.0
151.1
602.8
(523.8)
0.0
59.6
208.9
(255.3)
0.0
0.0
(19.6)
3.1
(41.4)
(57.9)
332.4
289.6
622.0
12-17E
508.2
214.4
0.0
(106.3)
(55.9)
0.0
34.2
594.5
(72.1)
0.0
106.3
(4.5)
29.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
(41.4)
(40.6)
629.2
583.6
1,212.8
17%
07-13A
01-14A
07-14A
Cc khon phi thu ngn hn

(tVND)
Tin v tng ng tin
u t ngn hn
Phi thu khch hng
Hng tn kho
Cc ti sn ngn hn khc
Tng ti sn ngn hn
Ti sn c nh
Tng u t
Ti sn di hn khc
Tng ti sn
Vay & n ngn hn
Phi tr ngi bn
N ngn hn khc
Tng n ngn hn
Vay & n di hn
Cc khon phi tr khc
Vn ch s hu
Li ch c ng thiu s
Tng n v vn ch s hu
01-15A
07-15A
01-16E
07-16E
12-15A
332
79
93
10
248
762
1,042
109
487
2,400
7
204
171
382
418
0
1,431
168
2,400
12-16E
629
79
207
21
81
1,017
1,350
109
279
2,754
0
194
298
492
405
3
1,673
180
2,754
12-17E
1,213
79
253
26
100
1,670
1,207
109
283
3,269
0
230
365
596
405
4
2,040
224
3,269
12-15A
12-16E
12-17E
29.3%
0
14.0%
2
21.8%
21.3%
1
11.0%
2
18.3%
24.9%
1
13.6%
2
22.0%
32
7
134
1
13.4%
47
8
75
1
12.6%
47
8
74
1
15.3%
Phi thu khch hng

DuPont
Bin LN rng
Vng quay TS
ROAA
BTC iu chnh
ROAE
Hiu qu
S ngy phi thu
S ngy nm gi HTK
S ngy phi tr tin bn
Vng quay TSC
ROIC
Thanh khon
Kh nng thanh ton ngn hn
Kh nng thanh ton nhanh
Kh nng thanh ton tin mt
Vng quay tin
Ch s tng trng (yoy)
Tng trng DT
Tng trng LN t HKD
Tng trng LN rng
Tng trng EPS
Gi tr c phiu
LN trn c phiu (VND)
Gi tr s sch/cp (VND)
C tc / cp (VND)
2
2
1
(95)
2
2
1
(19)
3
3
2
(19)
4.1%
21.8%
9.6%
(8.6%)
43.6%
0.6%
4.3%
(17.2%)
23.2%
32.8%
44.1%
37.6%
7,868
34,556
0
6,518
36,728
909
8,968
44,786
909
Ngun: VNDIRECT
www.vndirect.com.vn
56
NGN HNG TMCP CNG THNG VIT NAM (CTG)

Gi th trng
VND16.900
Gi mc tiu
T sut c tc
Khuyn ngh
VND20.012
4,8%
MUA
Trin vng ngn hn

Tiu cc
Tch cc
Tiu cc
Ngy 30/06/2016
hien.trankhanh@vndirect.com.vn
Din bin gi
24,000
116.0
23,000
111.6
22,000
107.1
102.7
20,000
98.2
19,000
93.8
18,000
89.3
17,000
84.9
16,000
80.4
15,000
10
8
6
4
2
76.0
Vol tr
21,000
07-15
09-15
11-15
01-16
03-16
05-16
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Thng tin c phiu

KLGDBQ (3thg)
Th gi vn (t VND)
Free float (%)
Beta
C ng ln
Tn c ng
23.000
16.000
1.033.465
61.436
3.723
8
1,35
% s hu
Ngn hng NN Vit Nam
64,5
Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi

UFJ
19,7
IFC L.P
5,39
IFC (World Bank)
2,63
www.vndirect.com.vn
Trung bnh
Tch cc
Tiu cc
Trung bnh
Tch cc
Cu chuyn ca CTG xoay quanh s chuyn bin ca mt

NHTMCP c t l nm gi ca Nh nc cao ang tch cc thot
khi m hnh ngn hng truyn thng hng ti m hnh ngn
hng bn l vi mc tiu pht trin bn vng.
Trn Khnh Hin
Gi iu chnh
nh gi
Trin vng di hn
Trung bnh
Ngnh
Ngn hng
Kt qu Q1/2016 tng i kh quan: Thu nhp li thun tng

14,6% nh NIM ci thin t 2,7% cui nm 2015 ln 2,8%. Thu nhp
ngoi li t mc tng trng n tng 97,8%; ch yu nh vo thu
nhp t ph v dch v (tng 39%). Chi ph d phng ri ro (DPRR)
trong k cng gim nh t 1.510 t ng xung 1.441 t ng, gp
phn y li nhun trc thu (LNTT) tng n tng 53,8%, t 2.400
t ng.
Hin ti NH vn cn i mt vi nhiu thch thc nh thanh khon
thp, trch lp DPRR ca khon tri phiu VAMC s tip tc n mn
li nhun trong nhng nm tip theo. Tuy nhin chng ti nh gi
cht lng ti sn ca CTG cao hn BIDV nh t l n nhm 2 thp
v t l bao n xu (LLR) c ci thin ng k t 80% nm 2014
ln 104% nm 2015.
Chng ti c tnh LNTT ca Vietinbank nm 2016 t 8.010 t ng,
tng 9,2% so vi nm 2015. EPS 2016 d phng 1.604 ng, BVPS
2016 d phng 16.033 ng (vn ch s hu bao gm 300 triu
c phiu sp nhp PGBank).
C phiu ang giao dch nh gi thp nht trong vng mt nm
tr li y. Hin ti, CTG gim v vng gi di 17.000 ng;
tng ng vi 1,04x P/B 2016, thp hn so vi trung bnh 1,45x
ca ngnh ng thi cng l mc thp trong lch s giao dch t nm
2014. y l nh gi kh hp dn i vi mt NH ang c nhng
chuyn bin tch cc, chng ti khuyn ngh MUA CTG vi gi mc
tiu 20.012 ng (cao hn 18,4% so vi gi hin ti).
Trong ngn hn chng ti cng lu nhng s kin c th xy ra nh
hng n gi c phiu nh: kh nng tng t l s hu ca nh u
t nc ngoi, chia c tc 8% bng tin mt. Bn cnh cng khng
loi tr kh nng CTG s sp nhp thm mt NH na trong nm sau.
57
nh gi
Tng trng EPS (rhs)
ROAE (rhs)
15.2
10%
1.6
10.6%
14.2
6%
1.5
10.5%
13.2
3%
1.4
10.5%
12.2
-1%
1.3
10.4%
11.2
-5%
1.2
10.3%
10.2
-9%
1.1
10.2%
9.2
-13%
1.0
10.2%
8.2
-16%
0.9
10.1%
-20%
0.8
01-13A
7.2
01-13A
07-13A
01-14A
07-14A
01-15A
Bo co KQ HKD
(tVND)
Thu nhp li thun
Thu nhp li sut rng
Tng li nhun hot ng
Tng chi ph hot ng
LN trc d phng
Tng trch lp d phng
TN t cc Cty LK & LD
Thu nhp rng khc
LN trc thu
Thu
Li nhun sau thu
Li ch c ng thiu s
LN rng
Ch s tng trng (yoy)

Tng trng tin gi khch hng
Tng tng trng cho vay khch hng
Tng trng thu nhp li rng
Tng trng LN trc d phng
Tng trng LN rng
Tng trng cc ti sn sinh li
Gi tr c phiu
LN trn c phiu (VND)
C tc / cp (VND)
Tng trng EPS
07-15A
01-16A
07-16A
12-15A 12-16A
18,839
21,708
3,905
4,497
22,744
26,205
(10,719) (12,316)
12,024
13,889
(4,679) (5,878)
12-17A
24,939
4,721
29,660
(13,792)
15,868
(6,669)
7,345
(1,629)
5,717
(19)
5,698
8,010
(1,776)
6,234
(21)
6,214
9,199
(2,039)
7,159
(24)
7,136
12-15A
12-16A
12-17A
16.2%
22.3%
7.2%
7.3%
(0.2%)
18.9%
14.0%
17.0%
15.2%
15.5%
9.1%
15.1%
14.0%
16.0%
14.9%
14.3%
14.8%
13.1%
1,530
15,004
5
(0.2%)
1,604
15,435
5
4.8%
1,596
13,416
5
(0.5%)
10.0%
07-13A
01-14A
07-14A
01-15A
Bng cn i k ton
(tVND)
Tng cho vay khch hng
Cho vay cc ngn hng khc
Tng cho vay
Chng khon - Tng cng
Cc ti sn sinh li khc
Tng cc ti sn sinh li
Tng d phng
Tng cho vay khch hng
Tng ti sn sinh li rng
Tin mt v cc khon tin gi
Tng u t
Cc ti sn khc
Tng ti sn khng sinh li
Tng ti sn
N khch hng
D n tn dng
Ti sn n chu li
Tin gi
Tng tin gi
Cc khon n li sut khc
Tng cc khon n li sut
Thu TNDN hon li
Cc khon n khng li sut khc
Tng n khng li sut
Tng n
Vn c phn
Thng d vn c phn
C phiu qu
Li nhun gi li
Cc qu thuc VCSH
Vn ch s hu
Li ch c ng thiu s
Tng vn ch s hu
Tng n v vn ch s hu
T l thu nhp li cn bin

T l chi ph thu nhp
N xu/ Tng cho vay
N xu/ Cho vay rng
LN/ TB cho vay
Tng t l an ton vn
Cp tn dng/ ngun vn
Bin li v dn tri
Thu nhp/ TS sinh li
Chi ph cho cc qu
Li rng/ Ti sn trung bnh
ROAE
07-15A
01-16A
07-16A
12-15A 12-16A
538,080 629,553
538,080
125,215
77,912
741,207
(6,394)
533,530
734,812
5,091
3,892
35,688
44,671
779,483
492,960
20,860
513,821
13,227
527,048
153,406
680,454
12-17A
730,282
629,553
730,282
137,737
144,624
85,703
89,988
852,993
964,894
(7,317)
(8,484)
624,265
723,928
845,676
956,410
5,193
5,296
3,970
4,050
36,402
37,130
45,564
46,476
891,240 1,002,885
561,974
640,651
21,904
22,342
583,878
662,992
13,888
14,166
597,766
677,159
158,102
162,972
755,868
840,131
42,919
73,007
96,414
42,919
73,007
96,414
723,373 828,876
936,545
37,234
40,234
49,209
8,975
8,975
0
0
0
0
3,942
7,177
11,094
5,717
5,717
5,717
55,868
62,103
66,020
242
262
320
56,110
62,365
66,340
779,483 891,240 1,002,885
12-15A
3%
(47%)
1%
1%
0%
11%
105%
12-16A
3%
(47%)
1%
1%
0%
9%
108%
12-17A
3%
(47%)
1%
1%
0%
9%
110%
6%
4%
3%
10%
6%
4%
3%
11%
6%
4%
3%
11%
Ngun: VNDIRECT
www.vndirect.com.vn
58
TNG CNG TY PHT TRIN TH KINH BC (KBC)

Gi th trng
VND16.100
Gi mc tiu
T sut c tc
Khuyn ngh
VND18.500
n.a%
NM GI
Trin vng ngn hn

Tiu cc
Tch cc
Tiu cc
Ngy 11/07/2016
Ng Kin Thun
thuan.ngokien@vndirect.com.vn
Din bin gi
Gi iu chnh
17,000
110.0
16,000
105.7
15,000
101.4
14,000
97.1
13,000
92.9
12,000
88.6
11,000
84.3
10,000
20
80.0
15
Vol tr
10
5
07-15
09-15
11-15
01-16
nh gi
Trin vng di hn
Trung bnh
03-16
05-16
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Thng tin c phiu

16.500
10.800
KLGDBQ (3thg)
4.5tr
Th gi vn (t VND)
7,234
481
Free float (%)
55
Beta
0.96
C ng ln
ng Thnh Tm
CTCP T vn v u t Kinh Bc
PYN Elite Fund
Mutual Fund Elite
Dragon Capital
Deutsche Bank AG London
14.95%
9.90%
7.41%
6.85%
5.60%
5.60%
Trung bnh
Ngnh
Ti chnh
Tch cc
Tiu cc
Trung bnh
Tch cc
Chng ti nhn nh KBC s c trin vng tt trong 1-2 nm ti

nh li th qu t ln, v tr p v thng hiu ni ting khi
thu ht c cc tp on ln ca th gii nh LG, v tinh ca
Samsung v n u ln sng cc Hip nh Thng mi FTA v
TPP.
Hin ti qu t KCN ca KBC t khong 3.835 ha v l ln nht
trong cc cng ty trn sn. Vi qu t ny, KBC s c din tch
thng phm vo khong 3.000 ha vi t l lp y ca c tp on
l 36%. So vi cc DN khc nh LHG hay ITA th tng din tch t
cng ch t ln lt l 368 v 932 ha v t l lp y cng mc
cao trn 70%.
V tr ca cc KCN mi u nm cnh cc KCN thnh cng v c
t l lp y cao nh KCN Qu V v KCN Trng Du. Tn dng
ln sng cc cng ty v tinh ca LG, KBC trin khai ngay xin d
n m rng Trng Du III nm cch KCN c khng qu 5 km hay KCN
Nam Sn Hp Lnh v KCN Quang Chu cch KCN Qu V khng
qu 10km. Chnh nh , KBC s tn dng c h thng h tng v
cc khch hng l v tinh ca cc tp on ln.
Thng hiu ca KBC c khng nh khi KBC tip tc thu
ht c cc tp on ln ca th gii. C th nh cui nm 2014,
LG Display mua 40 ha KCN Trng Du ko theo nhiu cng ty v
tinh con nh LG Innotek, O Sung, LGI hay Spolytech u t vo KCN
Trng Du II.
Tnh hnh KQKD 6 thng u nm 2016 ca KBC c tin trin tt
khi DT t KCN c tnh ti thi im hin ti t gn 70% k
hoch ra. KCN Trng Du c tnh t 413 t DT trong 6 thng
u nm v d kin cn tip tc tng mnh trong na cui nm khi
cc cng ty v tinh ca LG chn l t v ang kho st a hnh
thm khong 37 ha. KCN Qu V vi t l lp y cao do KBC tp
trung chia nh v m cc nh xng bn hoc cho thu vi gi
cao hn.
Ri ro pha long c phiu trong thi gian ti. KBC s pht hnh
thm 120 triu c phiu vi gi khng di 15.000 ng/CP. P/E 2016
v P/E pha long ca KBC ln lt l 12,78 v 15,75 ln.
Ngun: VNDIRECT
www.vndirect.com.vn
59
nh gi
Tng trng EPS (rhs)
ROAE (rhs)
42.2
280%
1.3
9.5%
37.2
244%
1.2
9.0%
32.2
209%
1.1
8.5%
27.2
173%
1.0
8.0%
22.2
137%
0.9
7.5%
17.2
101%
0.8
7.0%
12.2
66%
0.7
6.5%
30%
0.6
01-12A
7.2
01-12A
07-12A
01-13A
07-13A
Bo co KQ HKD
(tVND)
Doanh thu
Gi vn hng bn
Chi ph qun l DN
Chi ph bn hng
LN hot ng thun
EBITDA thun
Chi ph khu hao
Thu nhp li
Chi ph ti chnh
Thu nhp rng khc
TN t cc Cty LK & LD
LN trc thu
Thu
Li ch c ng thiu s
LN rng
Thu nhp trn vn
C tc ph thng
LN cha phn phi
Bo co LCTT
(tVND)
LN trc thu
Khu hao
Thu np
LC tin t HKD khc
Thay i VL
LC tin thun HKD
u t TSC
Cc khon khc
LC tin t HT
Tin vay rng nhn c
Dng tin t HTC khc
C tc, LN tr cho CSH
LC tin thun HTC
01-14A
07-14A
01-15A
07-15A
12-14A
1,069
(481)
(81)
(18)
489
522
(33)
489
4
(292)
141
(1)
341
(29)
14
326
326
0
326
12-15A
1,435
(861)
(93)
(35)
446
474
(28)
446
5
(41)
311
10
730
(128)
10
612
612
0
612
12-16E
1,865
(933)
(143)
(53)
737
764
(27)
737
5
(234)
254
6
767
(100)
0
667
667
0
667
12-14A
341.3
12-15A
730.0
12-16E
767.4
6.0%
07-12A
01-13A
07-13A

(tVND)
Tin v tng ng tin
u t ngn hn
Hng tn kho
Cc ti sn ngn hn khc
Tng ti sn ngn hn
Ti sn c nh
Tng u t
Ti sn di hn khc
Tng ti sn
Vay & n ngn hn
Phi tr ngi bn
N ngn hn khc
Tng n ngn hn
Vay & n di hn
Cc khon phi tr khc
Vn ch s hu
Li ch c ng thiu s
Tng n v vn ch s hu
01-14A
07-14A
01-15A
07-15A
12-14A
149
2
2,830
7,616
51
10,649
376
1,518
506
13,049
998
56
2,249
3,303
3,055
435
5,376
880
13,049
12-15A
228
2
3,362
8,364
47
12,003
376
893
382
13,654
1,205
77
1,662
2,945
1,352
1,322
8,036
0
13,654
12-16E
0
3
4,370
10,874
75
15,322
210
1,160
810
17,503
1,654
99
2,161
3,914
3,151
1,238
9,199
0
17,503
12-14A
12-15A
12-16E
30%
0
3%
3
7%
43%
0
5%
2
9%
36%
0
4%
2
8%
243
5,775
42
3
3%
126
3,544
33
4
6%
126
4,267
39
6
5%
3
1
0
5,976
4
1
0
3,637
4
1
0
4,354
Phi thu khch hng
(923.0)
(581.8)
0.0
0.0
103.1
(581.8)
(478.7)
(1,082.4)
(352.5)
0.0
0.0
149.1
(352.5)
(203.4)
(2,562.5)
(1,795.1)
0.0
0.0
228.2
(1,795.1)
(1,566.9)
DuPont
Bin LN rng
Vng quay TS
ROAA
BTC iu chnh
ROAE
Hiu qu
S ngy phi thu
S ngy nm gi HTK
S ngy phi tr tin bn
Vng quay TSC
ROIC
Thanh khon
Vng quay tin
Ch s tng trng (yoy)
Tng trng DT
Tng trng LN t HKD
Tng trng LN rng
Tng trng EPS
Gi tr c phiu
LN trn c phiu (VND)
C tc / cp (VND)
(0%)
14%
349%
236%
823
13,586
0
34%
(9%)
88%
56%
1,286
16,893
0
30%
65%
9%
(1%)
1,275
17,580
0
Ngun: VNDIRECT
www.vndirect.com.vn
60
CNG TY C PHN U T V PHT TRIN TH SI NG (SDI)

Gi th trng
VND42.700
Gi mc tiu
T sut c tc
Khuyn ngh
n/a
n/a
MUA
Trin vng ngn hn

Tiu cc
Trung bnh
nh gi
Trin vng di hn
Tch cc
Tiu cc
Ngy 08/07/2016
Ngnh
Ti chnh
Trung bnh
Tch cc
Tiu cc
Trung bnh
Tch cc
mai.phamle@vndirect.com.vn
D n Vinhomes Gardenia vi quy m 17,63 ha d kin s bt u

bn giao v ghi nhn doanh thu t cui 2016, k vng s mang li
im ri li nhun ln cho SDI vo nm 2017.
Din bin gi
D n Vinhomes Gardenia ang ghi nhn tc bn hng rt tt.

Giai on 1 ca d n bn c 70% cn h khu thp tng v 90%
cn h khu cao tng, d kin s hch ton c mt phn doanh thu
trong Q4/2016 khi bt u bn giao cn h. Phn ln doanh thu s
c ghi nhn trong nm 2017 khi d n hon thnh.
Phm L Mai
Gi iu chnh
So vi ch s UPCOM (Bn phi)
50,000
134.0
45,000
122.3
40,000
110.7
35,000
99.0
30,000
87.3
25,000
75.7
20,000
600
64.0
Vol th
400
200
07-15
09-15
11-15
01-16
03-16
05-16
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Thng tin c phiu

KLGDBQ (3thg)
Th gi vn (t VND)
Free float (%)
Beta
46.600
22.603
126.686
5,069
120
6
0,63
Li nhun Q1/2016 tng 71% so vi cng k nh khon li nhun

t bin t chuyn nhng c phn. Cng ty thu v 501 t ng
t hot ng thoi vn khi CTCP u t th Nam H Ni v hch
ton c 341 t ng li vo doanh thu ti chnh, nh li nhun
sau thu tng mnh.
SDI d kin doanh thu 2016 t mc 1.037 t ng, tng 164% yoy
v tng li nhun c tnh khong 737 t ng, tng 37% yoy.
Trong nm 2016 SDI s ghi nhn c doanh thu t Gardenia v thoi
vn hon ton khi cc cng ty con, do li nhun nm nay s tng
t bin so vi nm trc. Bin li nhun s ci thin do hot ng
kinh doanh bt ng sn em li bin li nhun cao.
Trin vng di hn: L cng ty con ca Vingroup, chng ti tin rng
SDI c li th i vi vic tip cn qu t cng nh nng lc trin khai
cc d n BS quy m ln, to ngun thu gi u trong tng lai.
Cng ty cng quyt nh khng tr c tc nm 2015 m dng phn li
nhun ly k 1.079 t ng pht trin d n mi.
nh gi: EPS d phng 2016 l 6.140 VND, trong EPS ct li (loi
tr li nhun ti chnh) l 3.300 VND. Vi mc gi giao dch hin ti,
c phiu ang giao dch tng ng vi mc P/E trung bnh ca
ngnh. Tuy nhin vi cc yu t tng trng r rng nh trnh by,
chng ti vn nh gi tt vi trin vng ca SDI.
Cc d n ca SDI
D n
C cu s hu
C ng ln
Tp on Vingroup
% s hu
94%
Loi hnh
a im
Vinhomes
Vinhomes
Riverside
Gardenia
Bit th - Cao cp Chung c - Trung
cao cp
Qun Long Bin
Qun Nam T Lim
Khu h pha Bc v
m rng NTMD
D n BT
Qun Cu Giy v
Nam T Lim
Pha ng HN
Din tch (ha)
183.5
Vn u t (t ng) 10.000
Pha Nam HN
17.63
7.900
15
800
S cn h
Tnh trng
2.419
Khi cng 01/2016
Khi cng 01/2016
1.58
bn giao ht
trong 2014
www.vndirect.com.vn
61
CTCP CMC (CVT)

Gi th trng
VND31.000
Gi mc tiu
T sut c tc
Khuyn ngh
VND45.500
8,10%
MUA
Trin vng ngn hn

Tiu cc
nh gi
Trin vng di hn
Trung bnh
Tch cc
Tiu cc
Trung bnh
Ngnh
Cng nghip
Tch cc
Tiu cc
Trung bnh
Tch cc
KQKD 2015 tch cc

01/07/2016
Nm 2015, CVT ghi nhn doanh thu t 680 t VND (+11,99% yoy) v
LNST t 62,7 t VND (+23,61% yoy). Kt qu tng trng tch cc l
nh: (1) Nh my CMC2 i vo hot ng t thng 8 nm 2015 nng
cng sut nh my t 10 triu ln 16 triu m2/nm. (2) CMC cha
thc hin khu hao vi nh my CMC2. (3) Gi than gim khong 6%
so vi nm 2014. (4) Thun li do th trng BS phc hi.
L Thanh Ha
hoa.lethanh@vndirect.com.vn
Din bin gi c phiu

Gi iu chnh
Chin lc th trng ngch

So vi ch s HNX (Bn phi)
35,000
160.0
33,000
152.2
31,000
144.4
29,000
136.7
27,000
128.9
25,000
121.1
23,000
113.3
21,000
105.6
19,000
97.8
17,000
2
90.0
Vol tr
1
1
07-15
09-15
11-15
01-16
03-16
05-16
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Thng tin c phiu

32.400
19.300
KLGDBQ (CP)
317.727
Th gi vn (t VND)
584
SL CP ang lu hnh (triu)
19.200
Free float (%)
84
ng lc tng trng 2016 t vic m rng nh my CMC2

Cui nm 2015, Cng ty a nh my CMC2 m rng i vo hot
ng. Nh my CMC2 m rng c cng sut 6 triu m2/nm a tng
cng sut ca cng ty ln mc 16 triu m2/nm. Chng ti nh gi
nh my CMC2 m rng l tc nhn trng yu cho k vng doanh thu
tng 67% v li nhun tng 70% yoy trong nm 2016.
D bo li nhun 2016 s vt k hoch
Bin li nhun gp v LNST Qu 1/2016 tng mnh do CVT cha thc
hin khu hao nh my CMC2 m rng. CVT s bt u tnh khu hao
cho nh my ny t Qu 2/2016 v c hi t cho Qu 1.
Nm 2016, d bo doanh thu t 1.135 t (+67% yoy) v LNST t
106,46 t (+70% yoy), cao hn 10,9% so vi k hoch. EPS c bn
c tnh t 4.874 VND/CP v EPS pha long c tnh t 4.008
VND/CP.
C ng ln
Tn c ng
% s hu
1 Nguyn Quang Huy
5.21%
2 Dng Quc Chnh
4.60%
3 Tng Cng ty Sng Hng
2.18%
4 Kiu Vn Linh
1.48%
5 CTCP Chng khon Si Gn-H Ni
1.43%
Ngun: VNDIRECT
www.vndirect.com.vn
n u xu hng dch chuyn t gch ceramic sang gch granit e

th CVT u t m rng nh my CMC2 sn xut gch granite.
Theo chia s ca ban lnh o th sn phm gch granite c bin li
nhun cao hn so vi gch ceramic. Ban lnh o cng cho bit nh
my CMC2 m rng c th sn xut c gch ceramic v gch granite.
Ty thuc vo tng thi im v nhu cu ca th trng m cng ty
s quyt nh t trng sn xut gch granite.
nh gi
S dng m hnh FCFF, chng ti nh gi ca c phiu CVT l 45.500
VND/CP. Gi ca c phiu CVT tng kh mnh trong thi gian gn
y, do vy chng ti cho rng nh u t nn ch nhng nhp iu
chnh MUA c phiu CVT cho mc tiu nm gi 6 thng n 1 nm.
62
nh gi
Tng trng EPS (rhs)

7.3

140%
6.3
107%
5.3
73%
4.3
40%
3.3
7%
2.3
1.3
01-13A
-27%
-60%
07-13A
01-14A
07-14A
01-15A
07-15A
01-16E
07-16E
Bo co KQ HKD
(trVND)
Doanh thu
Gi vn hng bn
Chi ph qun l DN
Chi ph bn hng
LN hot ng thun
EBITDA thun
Chi ph khu hao
Thu nhp li
Chi ph ti chnh
Thu nhp rng khc
TN t cc Cty LK & LD
LN trc thu
Thu
Li ch c ng thiu s
LN rng
Thu nhp trn vn
C tc ph thng
LN cha phn phi
12-15A
680,205
(548,634)
(36,309)
0
95,262
50,486
44,776
95,262
341
(20,522)
5,410
0
80,491
(17,824)
0
62,667
62,667
(7,960)
54,707
12-16E
1,135,880
(907,113)
(29,533)
0
199,234
122,466
76,768
199,234
433
(42,193)
2,400
0
159,874
(31,975)
0
127,899
127,899
(37,500)
90,399
12-17E
1,178,845
(944,762)
(30,650)
0
203,433
123,718
79,716
203,433
553
(42,463)
2,400
0
163,923
(32,785)
0
131,139
131,139
(51,144)
79,995
Bo co LCTT
(trVND)
LN trc thu
Khu hao
Thu np
LC tin t HKD khc
Thay i VL
LC tin thun HKD
u t TSC
Cc khon khc
LC tin t HT
Tin vay rng nhn c
Dng tin t HTC khc
C tc, LN tr cho CSH
LC tin thun HTC
12-15A
80,491
44,776
0
0
(17,824)
0
(15,983)
91,460
(256,250)
0
0
0
(256,250)
0
0
160,733
0
(7,960)
152,773
151,788
(12,017)
139,771
12-16E
159,874
76,768
0
0
(31,975)
0
65,582
270,249
(139,350)
0
0
0
(139,350)
0
0
(1,786)
0
(37,500)
(39,286)
75,417
91,613
167,030
12-17E
163,923
79,716
0
0
(32,785)
0
(4,902)
205,952
(58,942)
0
0
0
(58,942)
0
0
(88,790)
0
(51,144)
(139,934)
325,430
7,076
332,506
ROAE (rhs)
1.8
32%
1.6
31%
1.4
30%
1.2
28%
1.0
27%
0.8
26%
0.6
25%
0.4
23%
0.2
01-13A
22%
07-13A
01-14A
07-14A
Bng cn i k ton
(trVND)
Tin v tng ng tin
u t ngn hn
Phi thu khch hng
Hng tn kho
Cc ti sn ngn hn khc
Tng ti sn ngn hn
Ti sn c nh
Tng u t
Ti sn di hn khc
Tng ti sn
Vay & n ngn hn
Phi tr ngi bn
N ngn hn khc
Tng n ngn hn
Vay & n di hn
Cc khon phi tr khc
Vn ch s hu
Li ch c ng thiu s
Tng n v vn ch s hu
01-15A
07-15A
01-16E
07-16E
12-15A
75,417
0
50,863
257,562
0
383,842
543,484
0
4,456
931,782
198,554
148,100
34,382
381,036
257,545
3,438
289,763
12-16E
325,430
0
58,913
283,473
0
667,816
606,066
0
4,456
1,278,338
188,165
217,280
64,745
470,190
266,148
12,007
529,993
12-17E
332,506
0
59,972
295,238
0
687,716
585,292
0
4,456
1,277,465
150,532
222,753
67,194
440,479
214,991
20,794
601,201
931,782
1,278,338
1,277,465
Cc ch s chnh
DuPont
Bin LN rng
Vng quay TS
ROAA
BTC iu chnh
ROAE
Hiu qu
S ngy phi thu
S ngy nm gi HTK
S ngy phi tr tin bn
Vng quay TSC
ROIC
Thanh khon
Vng quay tin
Ch s tng trng (yoy)
Tng trng DT
Tng trng LN t HKD
Tng trng LN rng
Tng trng EPS
Gi tr c phiu
LN trn c phiu (VND)
C tc / cp (VND)
12-15A
12-16E
12-17E
9.2%
1
7.9%
3
23.6%
11.3%
1
11.6%
3
31.2%
11.1%
1
10.3%
2
23.2%
11
171
99
2
8.4%
9
114
88
2
13.0%
9
114
86
2
13.6%
1
0
0
84
1
1
1
36
2
1
1
37
12.0%
7.6%
23.6%
(34.1%)
67.0%
109.1%
104.1%
63.5%
3.8%
2.1%
2.5%
(15.7%)
3,581
16,558
455
5,856
24,267
1,717
4,937
22,636
1,926
Ngun: VNDIRECT
www.vndirect.com.vn
63
CTCP VIGLACERA TIN SN (VIT)

Gi th trng
VND24.700
Gi mc tiu
T sut c tc
Khuyn ngh
VND31.000
7,21%
MUA
Trin vng ngn hn

Tiu cc
nh gi
Trin vng di hn
Trung bnh
Tch cc
Tiu cc
Trung bnh
Ngnh
Cng nghip
Tch cc
Tiu cc
Trung bnh
Tch cc
06/07/2016
Hiu qu cao nh gi nguyn nhin liu u vo gim
L Thanh Ha
Nm 2015, VIT ghi nhn 681 t ng doanh thu (+0,58% yoy) v 37,3
t ng li nhun sau thu (+24,79% yoy). Doanh thu ch tng nh do
Cng ty hot ng mc cng sut ti a nm 2014 v nh my
Thi Bnh dng hot ng trong 20 ngy Qu 3 chuyn i t
chy than sang chy kh gas. Li nhun trong nm 2015 tng trng
mnh m l nh: (1) Gi nguyn vt liu u vo gim. (2) Trong nm
2014 Cng ty mnh tay x l hng tn kho li mt vi gi thp.
hoa.lethanh@vndirect.com.vn
Din bin gi c phiu

Gi iu chnh
So vi ch s HNX (Bn phi)
26,000
188
24,000
174
22,000
159
20,000
145
18,000
131
16,000
117
102
12,000
3
2
2
1
1
88
Vol tr
14,000
07-15
09-15
10-15
12-15
02-16
04-16
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Thng tin C phiu

25.600
12.361
KLGDBQ (CP)
31.327
Th gi vn (VND)
370
SL CP ang lu hnh (triu)
15
Free float (%)
35
Tng trng t nh my mi v cht lng sn phm tng mnh

Nh my Thi Bnh II chnh thc hot ng t ngy 01/01/2016, a
cng sut VIT t 4,5 triu m2/nm ln 6,5 triu m2/nm. Chng ti
nh gi nh my mi l tc nhn quan trng gip doanh thu v li
nhun nm 2016 tng mnh so vi 2015.
Cui nm 2015, Cng ty tin hnh thay i bi phi nguyn liu v
ci tin k thut nng cao cht lng sn phm. n nay, sn phm
gch granite ca Cng ty ang trong nhm dn u v p ng
c cc tiu chun kht khe ca cc quc gia nhp khu nh i
Loan, Nht Bn, Indonesia
Cng ty thc hin nghin cu thay i bi phi liu cng nh vic cn
chnh thng s nh my Thi Bnh II lm gim t l sn phm loi
1 v hao ht nguyn liu trong Qu 1/2016. Cc vn ny c
x l dt im v khng cn tc ng n cc qu khc trong nm
2016.
Li nhun tng mnh nh nh my mi v gi nhin liu gim
C ng ln
Tn c ng
1 Tng Cng ty Viglacera
% s hu
51%
2 Nguyn Th Minh
6.13%
3 inh Quang Huy
3.12%
4 Nguyn Vn Sinh
2.71%
5 Nguyn Th Yn
2.05%
Ngun: VNDIRECT
VIT t k hoch doanh thu 1.024 t v 70,5 t ng LNTT. Chng ti

d bo nm 2016 VIT t doanh thu 996 t (+46,13% yoy) v LNS T
62,69 t (+68,04% yoy). EPS c tnh t 4.179 VND/CP. Chng ti
d bo li nhun cao hn so vi k hoch do tnh n yu t gi kh
u trung bnh s gim so vi nm 2015.
nh gi
Sau khi loi b nhng gi tr P/E ngoi bin (P/E ln hn 1.000 v P/E
m), th P/E trung bnh lch s ca VIT l 7,42.
C phiu VIT ang c giao dch P/E 2016 l 5,5 ln, thp so vi
nh gi trung bnh lch s ca c phiu ny. Chng ti k vng nh
gi VIT c th hng ti mc P/E trung bnh lch s, tng ng vi
gi mc tiu l 31.000 VND/cp.
Chng ti khuyn ngh MUA c phiu VIT vi mc gi mc tiu l
31.000 VND/CP (tim nng tng gi 25,5%)
www.vndirect.com.vn
64
nh gi
Tng trng EPS (rhs)
7.6
140%
7.1
124%
6.6
108%
ROAE (rhs)
1.7
31%
1.5
29%
28%
6.1
92%
1.3
5.6
76%
1.1
26%
5.1
60%
24%
4.6
44%
0.9
4.1
28%
0.7
22%
3.6
12%
0.5
21%
3.1
2.6
01-13A
-4%
-20%
07-13A
01-14A
07-14A
Bo co KQ HKD
(trVND)
Doanh thu
Gi vn hng bn
Chi ph qun l DN
Chi ph bn hng
LN hot ng thun
EBITDA thun
Chi ph khu hao
Thu nhp li
Chi ph ti chnh
Thu nhp rng khc
TN t cc Cty LK & LD
LN trc thu
Thu
Li ch c ng thiu s
LN rng
Thu nhp trn vn
C tc ph thng
LN cha phn phi
Bo co LCTT
(trVND)
LN trc thu
Khu hao
Thu np
LC tin t HKD khc
Thay i VL
LC tin thun HKD
u t TSC
Cc khon khc
LC tin t HT
Tin vay rng nhn c
Dng tin t HTC khc
C tc, LN tr cho CSH
LC tin thun HTC
01-15A
07-15A
01-16E
07-16E
12-15A
681,806
(579,163)
12-16E
996,306
(846,710)
12-17E
976,380
(843,827)
(17,707)
84,936
43,936
41,000
84,936
298
(37,622)
403
0
48,015
(10,710)
0
37,305
37,305
(26,730)
10,575
(25,904)
123,692
72,427
51,266
123,692
263
(45,998)
403
0
78,360
(15,672)
0
62,688
62,688
(22,500)
40,188
(25,386)
107,167
45,868
61,298
107,167
281
(42,845)
403
0
65,006
(13,001)
0
52,005
52,005
12-15A
48,015
(40,508)
0
0
(10,710)
0
(20,699)
(23,902)
178,065
0
0
0
178,065
20,000
(3)
119,411
0
(11,875)
127,533
20,144
281,696
301,840
12-16E
78,360
(50,602)
0
0
(15,672)
0
(30,735)
(18,649)
41,845
0
0
0
41,845
0
0
4,821
0
(22,500)
(17,679)
5,912
5,517
11,429
12-17E
65,006
(60,635)
0
0
(13,001)
0
(3,832)
(12,463)
41,008
0
0
0
41,008
0
0
(89,603)
0
0
(89,603)
29,607
(61,058)
(31,451)
52,005
0.3
01-13A
19%
07-13A
01-14A
07-14A
Bng cn i k ton
(trVND)
Tin v tng ng tin
u t ngn hn
Phi thu khch hng
Hng tn kho
Cc ti sn ngn hn khc
Tng ti sn ngn hn
Ti sn c nh
Tng u t
Ti sn di hn khc
Tng ti sn
Vay & n ngn hn
Phi tr ngi bn
N ngn hn khc
Tng n ngn hn
Vay & n di hn
Cc khon phi tr khc
Vn ch s hu
Li ch c ng thiu s
Tng n v vn ch s hu
01-15A
07-15A
01-16E
07-16E
12-15A
5,912
0
57,573
142,298
0
205,783
445,989
13,300
16,016
681,088
225,317
78,642
14,668
318,627
166,703
1,962
193,796
0
681,088
12-16E
29,607
0
92,000
184,067
0
305,674
436,568
13,300
16,016
771,558
250,138
94,933
43,837
388,909
146,703
2,464
233,483
0
771,558
12-17E
8,466
0
90,744
183,441
0
282,651
416,278
13,300
16,016
728,245
180,535
90,095
42,961
313,591
126,703
2,880
285,071
0
728,245
12-15A
12-16E
12-17E
5.5%
1
6.2%
3
21.5%
6.3%
1
8.6%
3
29.3%
5.3%
1
6.9%
3
20.1%
15
90
50
2
6.4%
23
80
41
2
9.9%
23
79
39
2
8.8%
1
0
0
55
1
0
0
62
1
0
0
63
Cc ch s chnh
DuPont
Bin LN rng
Vng quay TS
ROAA
BTC iu chnh
ROAE
Hiu qu
S ngy phi thu
S ngy nm gi HTK
S ngy phi tr tin bn
Vng quay TSC
ROIC
Thanh khon
Vng quay tin
Ch s tng trng (yoy)
Tng trng DT
Tng trng LN t HKD
Tng trng LN rng
Tng trng EPS
Gi tr c phiu
LN trn c phiu (VND)
C tc / cp (VND)
0.6%
24.8%
34.5%
(4.0%)
46.1%
45.6%
68.0%
55.4%
(2.0%)
(13.4%)
(17.0%)
(17.0%)
2,690
13,972
1,927
4,179
15,566
1,500
3,467
19,005
0
Ngun: VNDIRECT
www.vndirect.com.vn
65
CTCP CAO SU TY NINH (TRC)

Gi th trng
VND21.800
Gi mc tiu
T sut c tc
Khuyn ngh
VND27.000
4,65%
MUA
Trin vng ngn hn

Tiu cc
Trung bnh
Tiu cc
Ngy 11/07/2016
thuan.ngokien@vndirect.com.vn
Din bin gi
25,000
111.0
24,000
107.1
23,000
103.2
22,000
99.3
21,000
95.4
20,000
91.6
19,000
87.7
18,000
83.8
17,000
79.9
16,000
300
76.0
Vol th
200
100
07-15
09-15
11-15
01-16
03-16
05-16
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Thng tin c phiu

23.968
17.190
KLGDBQ (3thg)
21.425
Th gi vn (t VND)
632
29.1
Free float (%)

Beta
Trung bnh
Tch cc
Tiu cc
Trung bnh
Tch cc
Tri qua chu k gim gi di t nm 2011, gi Cao su t nhin

(CSTN) th gii c mc hi phc kh tt trong 6T 2016 vi mt
s thng tin ngn hn h tr. K vng v vic gi CSTN to y
l c c s, mc d chng ti cho rng chu k phc hi ca gi
CSTN s kh khc nghit.
Ng Kin Thun
Gi iu chnh
nh gi
Trin vng di hn
Tch cc
Ngnh
Vt liu c bn
29
0.23
Trong cc doanh nghip CSTN ti Vit Nam, chng ti nh gi

cao TRC vi c cu vn cy v sn phm c nng sut cao.
90% cy cao su ca TRC c tui i t 8 ti 25 nm, thuc giai on
cho m di do v n nh nht. Vn cy cao su c tui tr hn
trung bnh ngnh gip TRC t nng sut cao hn vi cng chi ph
thu hoch.
C cu sn phm ca TRC cng tt hn cc DN trong cng ngnh
khi hn 70% sn lng l Latex. Vi c cu sn phm tt, TRC s
c hng li ln nht trong kch bn gi cao su tng trng tr li
do Latex l sn phm c bin li nhun gp cao nht trong cc sn
phm t cao su.
Trin vng tng trng ngnh sm lp ca Trung Quc v Th
gii d bo s lm tng nhu cu v cao su vi tc 3,9%/nm
n 2019 v trn 6%/nm n 2025. Cao su cho cho sn xut sm,
lp chim n 70% sn lng. Tng trng ngnh t c k vng
gim hng tn kho cao su ca cc nc xut khu trong nm 2016 v
2017.
nh gi: Vi gi nh gi CSTN nm 2016 l 35 triu VND/tn (tng
20% so vi nm 2015) v tng trung bnh 5%/nm trong 3 nm ti,
chng ti nh gi TRC mc 27.000 VND/CP. T sut c tc tin
mt ti mc gi hin nay ca TRC t 4,6%.
C cu s hu
Tp on Cng nghip
Cao su Vit nam
61.80%
FTIF _templeton Frontier
4.69%
Balestrad Limited
4.63%
L B Th
0.08%
Ngun: VNDIRECT
Tng quan ti chnh (VND)

Doanh thu (t)
Tng trng DT
Bin li nhun gp
EBITDA thun (t)
LN rng (t)
Tng trng LN rng
LN trn c phiu
Gi tr s sch/cp
ROAE
12-14A
501
(25.4%)
24.2%
91
139
(39.3%)
5,444
56,472
9.8%
12-15A
363
(27.5%)
18.6%
55
55
(60.7%)
2,138
55,078
3.8%
12-16E
374
3.1%
21.4%
61
94
71.5%
3,226
50,254
6.5%
12-17E
391
4.5%
21.4%
64
102
8.7%
3,506
52,207
6.8%
Ngun: VNDIRECT
www.vndirect.com.vn
66
nh gi
Tng trng EPS (rhs)
ROAE (rhs)
9.7
170%
0.76
31%
8.7
139%
0.71
28%
0.66
25%
0.61
22%
7.7
108%
6.7
76%
0.56
19%
5.7
45%
0.51
16%
4.7
14%
0.46
13%
3.7
-18%
0.41
10%
0.36
7%
2.7
-49%
0.31
4%
1.7
01-13A
-80%
0.26
01-13A
07-13A
01-14A
07-14A
Bo co KQ HKD
(tVND)
Doanh thu
Gi vn hng bn
Chi ph qun l DN
Chi ph bn hng
LN hot ng thun
EBITDA thun
Chi ph khu hao
Thu nhp li
Chi ph ti chnh
Thu nhp rng khc
TN t cc Cty LK & LD
LN trc thu
Thu
Li ch c ng thiu s
LN rng
Thu nhp trn vn
C tc ph thng
LN cha phn phi
Bo co LCTT
(tVND)
LN trc thu
Khu hao
Thu np
LC tin t HKD khc
Thay i VL
LC tin thun HKD
u t TSC
Cc khon khc
LC tin t HT
Tin vay rng nhn c
Dng tin t HTC khc
C tc, LN tr cho CSH
LC tin thun HTC
01-15A
07-15A
01-16E
07-16E
12-15A
362.9
(295.3)
(38.1)
(2.5)
27.1
55.0
(27.9)
27.1
8.7
(0.2)
22.2
5.1
62.9
(8.1)
0.0
54.8
54.8
(72.8)
(18.0)
12-16E
381.1
(284.8)
(31.0)
(2.0)
63.3
91.2
(27.9)
63.3
71.4
0.4
14.8
4.7
154.6
(18.4)
12-17E
400.1
(299.0)
(32.5)
(2.1)
66.5
81.2
(14.6)
66.5
101.0
0.4
15.5
4.9
188.4
(22.4)
136.2
136.2
(50.0)
86.2
166.0
166.0
(61.0)
105.0
12-15A
62.9
27.9
0.0
12-16E
154.6
12-17E
188.4
21.4
112.2
(283.8)
37.7
79.8
(4.1)
150.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
1%
07-13A
01-14A
07-14A

(tVND)
Tin v tng ng tin
u t ngn hn
Hng tn kho
Cc ti sn ngn hn khc
Tng ti sn ngn hn
Ti sn c nh
Tng u t
Ti sn di hn khc
Tng ti sn
Vay & n ngn hn
Phi tr ngi bn
N ngn hn khc
Tng n ngn hn
Vay & n di hn
Cc khon phi tr khc
Vn ch s hu
Li ch c ng thiu s
Tng n v vn ch s hu
01-15A
07-15A
01-16E
07-16E
12-15A
93
0
179
74
28
373
1,101
171
3
1,648
0
8
91
98
139
0
1,411
0
1,648
12-16E
1,029
17
188
78
23
1,334
719
180
0
2,233
1
6
95
101
139
0
1,993
12-17E
1,528
17
197
82
24
1,849
755
189
0
2,792
1
6
100
106
139
0
2,547
2,233
2,792
12-15A
12-16E
12-17E
15.1%
0
3.4%
1
3.8%
35.7%
0
7.0%
1
8.0%
41.5%
0
6.6%
1
7.3%
6
92
9
0
3.5%
6
100
7
0
6.4%
6
100
7
1
6.2%
4
3
1
88
13
12
10
99
17
17
15
98
(27.5%)
(70.1%)
(60.7%)
(60.7%)
5.0%
133.6%
148.6%
118.7%
5.0%
5.0%
21.8%
21.8%
2,138
55,078
2,842
4,677
68,417
1,716
5,698
87,445
2,093
Phi thu khch hng
(166.3)
0.0
0.0
91.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(72.8)
18.2
180.6
(35.9)
144.7
0.0
0.0
92.7
150.5
243.2
(8.8)
179.6
0.0
0.0
1,029.4
179.6
1,209.0
DuPont
Bin LN rng
Vng quay TS
ROAA
BTC iu chnh
ROAE
Hiu qu
S ngy phi thu
S ngy nm gi HTK
S ngy phi tr tin bn
Vng quay TSC
ROIC
Thanh khon
Vng quay tin
Ch s tng trng (yoy)
Tng trng DT
Tng trng LN t HKD
Tng trng LN rng
Tng trng EPS
Gi tr c phiu
LN trn c phiu (VND)
C tc / cp (VND)
Ngun: VNDIRECT
www.vndirect.com.vn
67
BCCL Q3/2016
KHUYN CO
Bo co ny c vit v pht hnh bi Khi Phn tch - Cng ty C phn Chng khon VNDIRECT. Thng tin trnh by trong
bo co da trn cc ngun c cho l ng tin cy vo thi im cng b. Cc ngun tin ny bao gm thng tin trn sn
giao dch chng khon hoc trn th trng ni c phiu c phn tch nim yt, thng tin trn bo co c cng b ca
cng ty, thng tin c cng b rng ri khc v cc thng tin theo nghin cu ca chng ti. VNDIRECT khng chu trch
nhim v chnh xc hay y ca nhng thng tin ny.
Quan im, d bo v nhng c tnh trong bo co ny ch th hin kin ca tc gi ti thi im pht hnh. Nhng quan
im ny khng th hin quan im chung ca VNDIRECT v c th thay i m khng cn thng bo trc.
Bo co ny ch nhm mc ch cung cp thng tin cho cc nh u t ca Cng ty C phn Chng khon VNDIRECT tham
kho v khng mang tnh cht mi cho mua hay bn bt k chng khon no c tho lun trong bo co ny. Cc nh
u t nn c cc nhn nh c lp v thng tin trong bo co ny, xem xt cc m c tiu u t c nhn, tnh hnh ti chnh
v nhu cu u t ca mnh, tham kho kin t vn t cc chuyn gia v cc vn quy phm php lut, ti chnh, thu v
cc kha cnh khc trc khi tham gia vo bt k giao dch no vi c phiu ca (cc) cng ty c cp trong bo co ny.
VNDIRECT khng chu trch nhim v bt c kt qu no pht sinh t vic s dng ni dung ca bo co di mi hnh thc.
Bn bo co ny l sn phm thuc s hu ca VNDIRECT, ngi s dng khng c php sao chp, chuyn giao, sa
i, ng ti ln cc phng tin truyn thng m khng c s ng bng vn bn ca VNDIRECT.
Nguyn Trung Hiu Gim c Phn tch

Email: hieu.nguyen@vndirect.com. vn
Nguyn Mai Phng, CFA Gim c Chuyn mn
Email: phuong.nguyenmai@vndirect.com. vn
Cng ty C phn Chng khon VNDIRECT

S 1 Nguyn Thng Hin Qun Hai B Trng H Ni
in thoi: +84 439724568
Email: research@vndirect.com.vn
Website: https://vndirect.com.vn
www.vndirect.com.vn
68

Chiến lược Đầu tư Q3/2016 - Bảo toàn lợi nhuận - 14/07/2016

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Chiến lược Đầu tư Q3/2016 - Bảo toàn lợi nhuận - 14/07/2016

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Chin lc u t Qu 3/2016

Khi Phn tch

Li nhun tng mnh nh nh my mi v gi nhin liu gim

CP NHT C PHIU KHUYN NGH QU 2 (TI BCCL Q2 NGY 14/04/2016)

Gi ti ngy khuyn Khuyn ngh ngy

CP NHT DANH MC U T THEO CHIN LC C TC (TI BCCL Q2 NGY 14/04/2016)

Din bin gi c hng ha 6 thng cui nm 2016

Gi nng lng: Chng ti d bo gi du WTI v du Brent na cui nm 2016 ri vo khong 45-50

Kinh t Vit Nam

Ngnh Du kh - S khng c t bin: gi du hi phc mnh trong 6 thng u nm tuy nhin mi

Ngnh Chng khon KH QUAN: k vng th trng nh gi ng hn v kt qu kinh doanh ca

BCCL Q3/2016 Kinh t th gii

a. Cc t chc nghin cu ln u h d bo tng trng kinh

Nhm nn KT pht trin

Ngun: World Bank

Chnh lch vi d bo a ra thng

Tng trng GDP (%)

I. Nn kinh t pht trin

II. Nn kinh t ang mi ni & ang pht trin

1. Nhm cc nc xut khu

III. Nhm cc nc ng Thi Bnh Dng

Ngun: World Bank

b. Hu ht cc th trng u phi i mt vi ri ro tng trng

Ngun: World Bank

Khi cc nn kinh t pht trin: D bo tng trng GDP ca

BCCL Q3/2016 Kinh t th gii

nh hng tiu cc n phc hi c th k n nh (1) hot

Tng quan li, chng ti c th miu t

Trong khi cc nn kinh t mi ni v ang pht trin, nhm cc

Nh vy, rt kh chng ta c th tm thy mt vi im sng trong

BCCL Q3/2016 Kinh t th gii

Dng tin tm n cc ti sn an ton trnh ri ro, gi vng c

Tc ng ca Brexit i vi th trng ti chnh ton cu l rt ln v

Mi lo ngi ln nht hu Brexit l kh nng s xy ra cc phn

BCCL Q3/2016 Kinh t th gii

d. nh gi nhanh tc ng ca Brexit n Vit Nam

Theo Tng cc Thng k nhn nh, vic nc Anh ri khi EU s tc

Chng ti ng tnh vi quan im trn ca Tng cc Thng k do th

in thoi v cc linh kin

Cc ngnh xut khu ch lc vo Anh nh in thoi, linh kin in

Ngun: Tng cc Thng k

Vi trin vng tng trng cha c nhiu ci thin trong nm 2016 v

Li sut m Wu-Xia (Wu-Xia Shadow Rate-vit tt l WXSR) l

BCCL Q3/2016 Kinh t th gii

Xia a ra nhm nh gi cc tc ng kinh t ca FED khi thc

Din bin li sut m, li sut iu hnh ca FED v ch s sc mnh ng USD

b. Qua nh gi li sut m, chng ta c th nhn thy FED ang

FED bt u ngng m rng chnh sch tin t ca mnh t gia nm

FED iu hnh li sut nh th no

FED thng da trn mt s cng thc c bn iu hnh chnh

y-y* = output gap

BCCL Q3/2016 Kinh t th gii

i p = +(p p*) + (y y*) hay i p = +(p p*) + (output gap)

Cng thc 1: ffr p* = p(ffr p*)+(1-p)[r + (p p*) + (output gap)]+

Level (Level of activity - mc hot ng) v

Vi mi 1% tng ca lm pht trn mc lm pht mc tiu l 2% s

Vi mi 1% tng thm ca t l tht nghip trn mc t l tht nghip

Vi mi 1% ci thin ca ch tiu nh gi mc hot ng ca th

Vi mi 1% tng ln ca ch tiu Momentum s dn n 2,4% tng

Ngun: Ngn hng d tr lin bang Kansas, VNDIRECT

e. D bo kh nng nng li sut ca FED trong na cui nm

Ch s gi tiu dng c nhn li (core PCE) tng 1,6% (T5/2016)

BCCL Q3/2016 Kinh t th gii

Lng c bn: tng -0,1% MoM v 2,5% YoY (T4/2016).

i p = +(p p) + (y y) hay i p = +(p p*) + (output gap)

Cng thc 1: ffr p* = p(ffr p)+(1-p)[r + (p p) + (output gap)]+