rate of

suicide

1999

Specific
Centered Seasonalit
MA
y

4pt MA

Winter

1.4

Spring

0.32
3.725

Summer

11.69

3.7 3.159459
3.675

Fall

1.49

3.67375

0.40558

3.6725
Winter

1.2

3.5975 0.333565
3.5225

Spring

2000

0.31

3.5025 0.088508
3.4825

Summer

11.09

3.49375

3.17424

3.505
Fall

1.33

3.4975 0.380272
3.49

Winter

1.29

3.51625 0.366868
3.5425

Spring

2001

0.25

3.5425 0.070572
3.5425

Summer

11.3

3.5175 3.212509
3.4925

Fall

1.33

3.4875 0.381362
3.4825

Winter

1.09

Spring

0.21

3.4075 0.319883
3.3325

2002

3.34125 0.062851
3.35

Summer

10.7

3.33875 3.204792
3.3275

Fall

1.4

3.32375 0.421211
3.32

Winter

3.24375 0.308285
3.1675

Spring

2003

0.18

3.15875 0.056985
3.15

Summer

10.09

3.12875

3.22493

3.1075
Fall

1.33

Winter

0.83

3.10375 0.428514
3.1

2004

3.0375 0.273251

2.975

2004

Spring

2.95125 0.050826
2.9275

Summer

9.59

Fall

1.14

1999
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall

0.15

2000

0.333565
0.088508
3.159459 3.17424
0.40558 0.380272

2001
0.366868
0.070572
3.212509
0.381362

2002

2003

0.319883 0.308285
0.062851 0.056985
3.204792 3.22493
0.421211 0.428514

Average
seasonalit
y
0.273251 0.32037
0.050826 0.065948
3.195186
0.403388
3.984892

2004

Seasonal
index
0.321585
0.066198
3.2073
0.404917
4

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall

a
b

2006

2007

Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall

Deseason
alized
SI
sales
t^2
ty
1.4 0.321585 4.353437
1 4.353437
0.32 0.066198 4.833966
4 9.667931
11.69
3.2073 3.644811
9 10.93443
1.49 0.404917 3.679766
16 14.71906
1.2 0.321585 3.731518
25 18.65759
0.31 0.066198 4.682904
36 28.09743
11.09
3.2073 3.457737
49 24.20416
1.33 0.404917 3.284623
64 26.27699
1.29 0.321585 4.011381
81 36.10243
0.25 0.066198 3.776536
100 37.76536
11.3
3.2073 3.523213
121 38.75534
1.33 0.404917 3.284623
144 39.41548
1.09 0.321585 3.389462
169
44.063
0.21 0.066198 3.17229
196 44.41206
10.7
3.2073 3.33614
225 50.0421
1.4 0.404917 3.457498
256 55.31997
1 0.321585 3.109598
289 52.86317
0.18 0.066198 2.719106
324 48.9439
10.09
3.2073 3.145949
361 59.77302
1.33 0.404917 3.284623
400 65.69247
0.83 0.321585 2.580966
441 54.20029
0.15 0.066198 2.265921
484 49.85027
9.59
3.2073 2.990054
529 68.77125
1.14 0.404917 2.815391
576 67.56939
82.53151
4900 950.4505

rate of
suicide

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
300
4.32135
-0.070603

Deseason
alized
Adjusted
forecast SI
sale
29 2.273864 0.321585 0.731241
30 2.203261 0.066198 0.145852
31 2.132658
3.2073 6.840075
32 2.062056 0.404917 0.834961
33 1.991453 0.321585 0.640421
34 1.92085 0.066198 0.127157
35 1.850247
3.2073 5.934296
36 1.779644 0.404917 0.720608