Mo Hnh Hoa Mo Phong

PGS.TS. Quyen Huy Anh

CHNG I

TONG QUAN VE MO HNH MO PHONG

1.1 KHAI NIEM CHUNG
Mo hnh mo phong ngay cang c s dung nhieu e phan tch va oan trc nhng ap ng,
dien bien cua mot he thong ky thuat. oi vi nhng ng dung lien quan en may cong cu va he
thong ieu khien, nhng qua trnh san xuat t ong hoac s c kh hoa cua mot trung tam phan
phoi, mo hnh mo phong ang c dung e kiem tra thiet ke va nhng thu tuc hoat ong theo ke
hoach.
Mo hnh mo phong la trung tam cua viec thiet ke nhng he thong ieu khien bi v oi vi
nhng he thong thiet b cong nghiep ln , van e nay cha c biet en hoac khong ton tai, va
khong co bat ky he thong phan tch thiet ke thch hp nao co the at c. Mo phong co the la
mot phng cach duy nhat xay dng van tat nhng thiet b vat ly ma ban than no va nhng th
nghiem tren no se phan anh he thong thc.
Co nhieu phng phap thc hien mo hnh cac he thong ma khong bao gom mo phong. Mo
phong thng can thiet trong cac trng hp sau ay:
1. Mo hnh rat phc tap vi nhieu bien va nhieu thanh phan tng tac vi nhau.
2. Cac quan he gia cac bien so c ban la khong tuyen tnh .
3. Mo hnh cha nhieu bien ngau nhien.
4. e quan sat ngo ra cua mo hnh trong khong gian ba chieu.
Cac mon hoc lien quan en nen tang cua mon mo hnh mo phong la ieu khien hoc
(Cybernetics), ly thuyet he thong (System theory), khoa hoc he thong (Systemscience), khoa hoc
may tnh (Computer science), ky thuat he thong va cong nghiep (Industrial and system
engineering), khoa hoc quyet nh (Decision science) va thong ke (Statistics).
1.2 NH NGHA VE MO HNH VA MO PHONG
1.2.1 He thong (System)
He thong la mot he ton tai va hoat ong theo thi gian va khong gian. Mot he thong c coi
la mot thc the, s ton tai cua thc the nay c duy tr thong qua s tac ong qua lai gia cac
thanh phan cua cua no.
1.2.2 Tng ong (Homology)
Mot he thong nay c goi la tng ong vi mot he thong kia khi cac ac iem, cac tnh
chat, hoac cac qua trnh xay ra trong he thong nay th cung xay ra trong he thong kia.
Tng ong c phan ra thanh nhieu loai va se c e cap cu the hn trong phan phan loai
phng phap mo hnh hoa.
Ly thuyet tng ong, cho phep t nhng tnh chat biet trc cua mot hien tng c phan
tch, co the nhan thc c mot nhom ln cac hien tng, ve y ngha nay hay y ngha khac, tng
ong vi hien tng au tien.
Ly thuyet tng ong c ng dung khi :
Tm kiem tng t cac quan he, cac phu thuoc va giai cac bai toan cu the.

ai Hoc S Phm Ky thuat TPHCM

Mo Hnh Hoa Mo Phong

PGS.TS. Quyen Huy Anh

X ly cac ket qua th nghiem va th nghiem cua cac thiet b ky thuat khi ket qua c
trnh bay di dang phu thuoc tong quat.
Thc hien cac mo hnh, tc la cac thiet b the hien cac hien tng trong cac thiet b ban
au, thng la co khoi lng ln, phc tap hn ve mat cau truc va mac hn so vi mo
hnh.

1.2.3 Mo hnh (Model)

Mo hnh la mo ta vat ly, toan hoc hay luan ly cua mot he thong thc, mot thc the, mot hien
tng hay mot qua trnh.
Mo hnh thng mo ta n gian mot he thong mot vai iem rieng biet theo thi gian va
khong gian, nham lam gia tang s hieu biet cua con ngi ve he thong thc.
Mot mo hnh co tot hay khong phu thuoc vao kha nang tr giup con ngi hieu biet ve he
thong nhieu hay t. V tat ca cac mo hnh c xay dng theo cach n gian hoa he thong thc va
nh vay mot so chi tiet nao o b loai ra, nen can co s hai hoa ve mc o chi tiet cua mo hnh.
Neu co qua t chi tiet trong mo hnh th se khong nhan biet c nhng yeu to anh hng lan nhau
co the xay ra trong he thong thc va ket qua la mo hnh khong giup hieu biet hn ve he thong
thc nh mong muon. Neu co qua nhieu chi tiet trong mo hnh, no co the tr nen rat phc tap,
khong lam phat trien trnh o hieu biet sau sac hn ma con ngi tm kiem va that s can tr qua
trnh nghien cu.
Co the xay dng mot mo hnh t tren xuong di, t di len tren, t trong ra ngoai hoac t
ngoai vao trong. Neu mot ngi theo uoi vi mot s phat trien lien tuc ve mo hnh th khong sm
th muon, ngi o se at c mot trnh o hieu biet thau ao tng ng.
ieu quan trong can lu y la neu mot ngi xay dng mot mo hnh vi d nh bat chc no,
th moi bc thay oi chi tiet phai tng oi nho, va moi lan thay oi phai thc hien mo phong lai.
1.2.4 Mau ban au (Prototype)
Mau ban au la loai, dang hay v du ban au cua mot he thong va c s dung nh mot mo
hnh cho cac giai oan ke tiep hay cuoi cung.
1.2.5 Mo hnh hoa (Modeling)
Mo hnh hoa la viec ng dung cac phng phap luan co tnh tieu chuan, chnh xac hay cau
truc e tao ra va hieu lc hoa mo hnh.
1.2.6 Mo phong (Simulation)
Mo phong la mot nganh khoa hoc giup cho con ngi hieu biet them ve s tng tac gia cac
yeu to cau thanh mot he thong, cung nh toan bo he thong. Mc o hieu biet thu c t nganh
khoa hoc nay ln ti mc hiem khi at c thong qua bat ky nganh khoa hoc nao khac.
Mo phong la s van ong cua mot mo hnh nh cach hoat ong theo thi gian va khong gian
ben trong he thong thc ma mo hnh nay ai dien. V vay, mo phong cho phep nhan biet c s
tac ong qua lai ben trong he thong thc nh s tach biet theo thi gian hoac khong gian.
Mot cach tong quat, mo phong la s lap lai va phat trien cua mo hnh. Mot ngi xay dng
mot mo hnh, mo phong no, nghien cu qua trnh mo phong, sa oi mo hnh va tiep tuc mo
phong cho en khi thu c mot mc o hieu biet ay u t mo hnh.
Mo phong la cong cu quan trong va c s dung nham:

D oan tien trnh va ket qua mot vai cong viec

Hieu tai sao cac s kien quan sat c xay ra

ai Hoc S Phm Ky thuat TPHCM

Mo Hnh Hoa Mo Phong

PGS.TS. Quyen Huy Anh

Nhan nh pham vi cua van e trc khi thc thi

Khao sat anh hng cua cac tac ong thay oi

anh gia cac y tng va nhan ra muc ch cha at oc

at c cac hieu biet sau sac va kch thch suy ngh sang tao

Chng minh tnh ung an va kha nang thc thi cua d an

Cac dang mo phong c ban la mo phong lien tuc va mo phong ri rac. Cho du s vat co lien
tuc hay ri rac th van e ve ch la s cam nhan ngi quan sat theo mot khung thi gian nhat
nh. ieu nay tng t cac ien t hoat ong co the c xem nh nh cac hat hay song tuy
thuoc vao cach chon e xem xet chung.
Mo phong lien tuc la qua trnh mo phong ch that s at c vi mot may tnh tng
t. Khi s dung mot may tnh so, co the gan nh thc hien c mo phong lien tuc
bang cach thc hien cac bc lap ve thi gian nho ti mc e khong co s chuyen tiep
trong he thong gia nhng bc thi gian. ieu trc tien oi vi mo phong lien tuc la
phai co dong thi gian lien tuc va qua trnh mo phong c thc hien theo tng bc
gia tang thi gian.
Mo phong ri rac la mot ky thuat ma o, qua trnh mo phong c cai tien dan len
theo tng thi iem ma dung thi gian tang len lien tuc nh trong mo phong lien tuc.
ac tnh gii han cua hau het cac mo hnh c xay dng la chung khong bien oi ve ban
chat. Chung la nhng mo hnh ai dien cho mot ieu g o tai mot thi iem cu the. Tuy nhien, he
thong thc te th lai co thay oi. Thc te thng xuyen thay oi qua nhng anh hng lan nhau
cua cac tac ong ben ngoai oi vi no va s anh hng lan nhau gia cac thanh phan cua no. Van
e ay la lam sao co the tin la co the xay dng c nhng mo hnh thc te sinh ong khong
bien oi va mong i chung giup ngi lam mo hnh mo phong hieu biet hn ve mot pham vi rat
co gii han.
Van e nay c giai quyet bi mot qua trnh c goi la mo phong ong (Dynamic
Modeling), ay la hnh thc cua mo phong van hanh trong thi gian thc. Mo phong ong van
hanh tren thi gian thc a c thu hep theo hng giup ngi lam mo hnh mo phong nhn
thay c s tien trien theo thi gian trong qua trnh xay dng mo hnh.
Toan bo qua trnh mo phong bao gom ba giai oan chu yeu (hnh 1) :

Thiet ke mo hnh (Model design)

Thc thi mo hnh (Model execution)

Phan tch thc thi mo hnh (Execution analysis)

Thiet ke mo hnh

Thc thi mo hnh

Phan tch mo hnh

Hnh 1.1

ai Hoc S Phm Ky thuat TPHCM

Mo Hnh Hoa Mo Phong

PGS.TS. Quyen Huy Anh

1.3 CAC BAI TOAN TRONG MO HNH VA MO HNH HOA

Nhiem vu nghien cu c giai quyet nh phng phap mo hnh va mo phong co the chia lam
4 nhom:
1.3.1 Giai cac bai toan phan tch trc tiep
Trong bai toan nay cac thong so cua cac phan t he thong, thong so che o ban au, thong so
cau truc va ieu khien c cho trc, nhiem vu at ra la xac nh phan ng cua he oi vi cac
dao ong tac ong vao he thong.
V du : Nghien cu phan ng cua mach R-L-C che o qua o
i(t)=?

Cac thong so a biet:

L

u(t)=?

e(t)

Gia tr cua R, L, C.

Thong so che o ban au iLo, uCo.

Dao ong tac ong vao he e(t).

Can xac nh: i(t), u(t).

Hnh 1.2
1.3.2 Giai cac bai toan phan tch ngc
Trong bai toan nay cac thong so cua cac phan t he thong, thong so che o ban au, thong so
cau truc va ieu khien a biet, nhiem vu at ra la can xac nh dao ong tac ong vao he e he co
c phan ng theo yeu cau nh trc.
V du: Xac nh tn hieu ngo vao cua mach R-L-C vi ngo ra u(t) nh trc

i(t)

Cac thong so a biet:

R

L
C

e(t)=?

u(t)

Gia tr cua R, L, C.

Thong so che o ban au iLo, uCo.

ap ng u(t).

Can xac nh dao ong e(t) tac ong vao

mach.
Hnh 1.3
1.3.3 Bai toan tong hp
Bai toan nay thuoc dang bai toan thiet ke. Tc la can xac nh cac thong so, cac phan t va
cau truc cua he thong sao cho qua trnh xay ra trong he se co ac tnh mong muon. Qua trnh co
the c mo ta bang he phng trnh vi phan hay ac trng bang mot nhom cac thong so ngo ra
nh trc.
ai Hoc S Phm Ky thuat TPHCM

Mo Hnh Hoa Mo Phong

PGS.TS. Quyen Huy Anh

V du: Thiet ke mach khuech ai K:

Cac thong so a biet:
e(t)

u(t)=Ke(t)

Hnh 1.4

Dao ong au vao e(t).

ap ng au ra u(t) =Ke(t).

Can xac nh cau truc va tnh toan gia tr cac

phan t he thong.

1.3.4 Bai toan quy nap

Viec giai bai toan nay nham muc ch kiem tra bai toan tong hp, hieu chnh cac phng
trnh mo ta qua trnh xay ra trong he, lam ro cac tnh chat cua cac phan t he. Bai toan nay thng
c the hien qua cac chng trnh tnh tren may tnh e loai tr sai so.
1.4 PHAN LOAI MO HNH
Co 6 dang mo hnh chnh la:
Mo hnh trc quan (Intuitional model)
Mo hnh trc quan la mo hnh da tren cac gia thiet suy t cac nhan thc co c hay
suy t cac trc quan tng t ve oi tng
Mo hnh ky dau hieu ( Symbolic model)
Mo hnh ky dau hieu la mo hnh ma ac tnh cua no c trnh bay di dang ky dau
hieu. V du mo hnh o th, mo hnh ghi chep, mo hnh bang bieu,..
Mo hnh t nhien ( Natural model)
Mo hnh t nhien la mo hnh mo ta mot he thong bang mot he thong khac ang ton tai
trong the gii thc.
Mo hnh toan hoc
Mo hnh vat ly
Mo hnh tng t -so
Di ay tap trung trnh bay ba mo hnh sau cung.
1.4.1 Mo hnh toan hoc (Mathematical model)
Trong mo hnh toan hoc, cac phan t va cac qua trnh dien ra trong cac phan t o, cung nh
moi quan he gia cac phan t trong tong the he thong, c bieu dien bang cac mo ta toan hoc,
nh s o thay the cac phan t, cac thong so ban au, cac phng trnh trang thai, cac kch thch
va cac ap ng.... Cac phng trnh va cac mo ta toan hoc nay se c to chc lai va c giai
bang cac thuat toan chay tren may tnh. Noi cach khac, mo hnh toan hoc la phan mem mo phong
he thong va trang thai cua he thong o thong qua cac mo ta toan hoc va thuat toan giai.
Mo hnh toan hoc c phan ra thanh nhieu loai:
1.4.1.1 Mo hnh s o thay the ( Equivalent circuit model)
Trong mo hnh toan hoc cac thiet b ien va may phat, may bien ap, ng day..., va cac linh
kien ien t (diode, transistor, FET...) c mo ta bang cac s o thay the. S o thay the the
hien cach ket noi cac phan t c ban nhat a c nghien cu ky t trc (tu ien, ien tr, cuoc
ai Hoc S Phm Ky thuat TPHCM

Mo Hnh Hoa Mo Phong

PGS.TS. Quyen Huy Anh

cam, nguon dong, nguon ap,...). Mc o phc tap hoa cua s o thay the phu thuoc vao mc o
mo phong cac hien tng vat ly dien ra trong thiet b va linh kien theo khong gian va thi gian.
Trong trng hp ch neu mot mat cua hien tng hay mot so quan he cua qua trnh nghien
cu th ch can thanh lap s o thay the khong a nang. V du, neu ng day truyen tai i xa
c mo ta bi s o mac xch (hnh 1.5) th phan bo ien ap va dong ien doc theo ng day
c phan anh hp ly . Nhng , phan bo au song ien ap va dong ien khong the phan anh c
trong s o , hay ch phan anh co ieu kien.
S O THONG SO RAI

Hnh 1.5
Tng t , qua trnh bien oi phc tap cua t trng va dong ien theo thi gian cua qua trnh
qua o trong may phat ien ong bo (trong trng hp rieng la ngan mach ) co the c bieu th
bang mot day cac s o thay the trong cac thi iem ac trng ).
1.4.1.2 Mo hnh tnh toan ( Computational model)
Mo hnh tnh toan cha cac qua trnh a c xac nh mot cach ro rang va co the thc thi
tren may tnh. Mo hnh nay bao gom thuat toan va chng trnh giai tren may tnh . Cac chng
trnh nay the hien cac qua trnh xac nh c mo ta bang he phng trnh vi phan at trong phan
c ban cua thuat toan. V du mo hnh ve th trng chng khoan c trnh bay di dang tap cac
phng trnh va cac luat luan ly.
1.4.1.3 Mo hnh so hoa (Numerical model)
Mo hnh so hoa la mo hnh toan trong o tap cac thuat toan suy bien thanh dang thch hp e
giai bang bang cac phng phap n gian nh : giai tch so hay t ong. V du mo hnh trong o
phng trnh n mo ta nen kinh te quoc dan c thay the bang mot tap cac ch so trung bnh n
gian da tren cac quan sat thc nghiem ve ch so lam phat, ch so that nghiep, san lng quoc dan
va cac ch so khac. Noi khac i, mo hnh so hoa la mo hnh ma cac ac tnh cua no c trnh bay
di dang so
1.4.2 Mo hnh vat ly (Physical model)
Mo hnh vat ly la mo hnh ma cac ac tnh vat ly cua no tng ong vi cac ac tnh vat ly
cua he thong c mo phong.
Trong trng hp nay , theo ac tnh cua mo hnh x co the nhan c tat ca cac ac tnh cua
nguyen mau y bang cach chuyen oi thong qua he so t le m. Quan he gia thong so cua mo hnh
x va nguyen mau y the hien qua bieu thc:
xj = mj yj
Mo hnh vat ly co the la mo hnh theo thi gian, trong o ch nghien cu cac qua trnh bien
oi theo thi gian. V du nh xem xet s bien oi cua dong ien trong mach ien trong qua trnh
qua o. Mo hnh vat ly theo khong gian dung e nghien cu cac qua trnh ma tac ong cua cac
qua trnh o khong c xem xet theo thi gian, tc la ch nghien cu cac trang thai xac lap tng
ng vi mot thi gian nhat nh. V du, mo hnh khao sat s phan bo dong ien trong mach ien.
ai Hoc S Phm Ky thuat TPHCM

Mo Hnh Hoa Mo Phong

PGS.TS. Quyen Huy Anh

Khi mo ta chi tiet hn th mo hnh vat ly co the la mo hnh ay u theo khong gian va thi gian .
V du, mo hnh ang-ten e ieu khien lan truyen song radio trong khong gian .

1.4.3 Mo hnh tng t so ( Analog-Digital Model)

Mo hnh nayda tren c s tnh ong hnh cua cac phng trnh, ngha la chung co kha nang
mo ta nhng hien tng khac nhau va neu ra cac quan he chc nang khac nhau trong khi s dung
cac chng trnh phi chc nang.
Mo hnh tng t so phan ra thanh nhieu loai nh sau:
1.4.3.1 Mo hnh tng t (Analog model)
Mo hnh tng t la mo hnh da tren cac phan t thc thi cac phep toan tng t. S dien ra
cac phep toan, trong mot trat t nhat nh, at c tng ng vi s noi ket nhng phan t tng
t rieng biet cua s o cau truc. ieu nay cho phep nhan c mo hnh toan hoc dang cau truc
thanh lap t cac phan t tnh toan rieng biet dang lien tuc.
1.4.3.2 Mo hnh so ( Digital model)
Mo hnh so la mo hnh da tren cac phan t thc thi cac phep toan gian oan .
u iem cua mo hnh hoa so so vi tng t la o chnh xac cao . Mo hnh hoa so co the c
chuyen mon hoa , dung e giai cac bai toan cu the.
1.4.3.3 Mo hnh to hp gian oan
Mo hnh to hp gian oan la s tong hp cac mo hnh neu tren va thc hien di dang noi ket
cac phan t nhat nh : mo hnh tng t va may tnh so chuyen dung . S tong hp nh vay tan
dung c tnh chat cua mo hnh tng t ( ro rang, n gian trong la chon s o , tac ong
nhanh ) va may tnh so ( chnh xac, lu tr trong bo nh nhng d lieu can thiet, ket qua...)
1.4.3.4 Mo hnh hoa chc nang hay ieu khien (Functional or control model)
Trong mo hnh nay, oi tng c the hien bang nhng mau chu yeu lay t qua trnh thong
tin va qua trnh ieu khien.
1.5 PHAN LOAI PHNG PHAP MO HNH HOA
Tng ong va mo hnh hoa c quan tam trong thc te co the chia lam 3 phng phap :
1.5.1 Phng phap mo hnh hoa hoan toan va tng ong hoan toan
phng phap nay, mo hnh c xay dng phai am bao s tng ong ve moi phng
dien, moi tnh chat cua nguyen mau trong nhng dang ton tai c ban cua no, tc la trong khong
gian va thi gian. Noi cach khac, qua trnh ac trng cho hien tng nghien cu bien oi mot
cach tng ong theo khong gian va thi gian. Tng ong hoan toan, tng ng vi mo hnh hoa
hoan toan, ac trng mot cach toan hoc bi quan he thong so cua mo hnh x va nguyen mau y:
xj = mj yj

(1.1)

ay: mj la he so t le , thng la hang so va trong mot so trng hp co the la bien phu

thuoc vao che o, thi gian hay he truc toa o; yj la thong so he thong hay thong so che o he
thong :
yj = ( y1 , y2 , ... , yk-j , lx , ly , lz , t )

(1.2)

Trong o: lx , ly , lz la cac kch thc hnh hoc va t la bien thi gian.

ai Hoc S Phm Ky thuat TPHCM

Mo Hnh Hoa Mo Phong

PGS.TS. Quyen Huy Anh

V du: mo hnh may bay ieu khien vo tuyen, mo hnh ca map biet bi,...

ai Hoc S Phm Ky thuat TPHCM

PGS.TS. Quyen Huy Anh

Hnh 1.6 Cac loai mo hnh va mo hnh hoa

Mo Hnh Hoa Mo Phong

ai Hoc S Phm Ky thuat TPHCM

Mo Hnh Hoa Mo Phong

PGS.TS. Quyen Huy Anh

1.5.2 Phng phap mo hnh hoa khong hoan toan

phng phap nay, ch tap trung vao dien tien cua cac qua trnh chnh ac trng cho hien
tng nghien cu, tc la tng ong ch mot phan ( theo khong gian hay theo thi gian ) :
Hay

yj = ( y1 , y2 , ... , yk-j , lx , ly , lz )

(1.3)

yj = ( y1 , y2 , ... , yk-j , t )

(1.4)

Trong tng ong muc tieu, s tng ong c thiet lap gia mot vai phng trnh hay cac
ac tnh chung nhat ma trong mo hnh va nguyen mau co s tng ng xac nh.
V du: mo hnh qua a cau (theo khong gian) va mo hnh ong ho (theo thi gian)
1.5.3 Phng phap mo hnh hoa gan ung
Trong trng hp mot vai yeu to co anh hng khong ln en qua trnh nghien cu th co
the mo hnh hoa gan ung hay co the bo qua. Do o se xuat hien sai so, sai so nay co the c
anh gia bang phng phap nay hay phng phap khac. Xay dng mo hnh da tren y tng nay
c goi la mo hnh hoa gan ung. Mo hnh hoa gan ung co the hoan toan hay khong hoan toan.
Mo hnh hoa trong moi dang ke tren phai c thc hien tren c s mot vai quan he nh
lng toan hoc an nh bi ieu kien tng ong, goi la tieu chuan tng ong.
1.6 CAC TRNG HP MO PHONG LA KHONG THCH HP
Mo hnh mo phong a tr nen mot cong cu can thiet e phan tch cac ch tieu chat lng cua
he thong a c biet trc, thc thi cac s o thiet ke, mo ta va bieu dien cac tac ong, kiem tra
cac gia thuyet va thc hien nhieu phan tch khac.
Mot cau hoi thng khong nhac en nhng co the nen hoi la : mo hnh mo phong co phai la
cong cu thch hp nhat cho van e ang c quan tam?. Chu e nay a c thao luan va a ra
ket luan la co nhieu trng hp ma trong o mo hnh mo phong la khong thch hp. Trong qua
kh, mo hnh mo phong a phuc vu cho cac d an rat ln va rat chuyen biet. Mo phong trong
trng hp nay oi hoi phai co mot hay nhieu lap trnh vien hoac ngi phan tch a qua mot giai
oan huan luyen va tch luy nhieu kinh nghiem. S gia tang nhanh chong cua phan mem mo
phong nhng nam gan ay a dan en s gia tang trong ng dung nhieu ng dung c tien
hanh bi ngi cha qua mot lp huan luyen hoac co kinh nghiem thch hp. No cung dan en s
gia tang o le thuoc vao mo phong e giai quyet cac van e khac nhau.
Mac du nhieu d an trong so nay eu thanh con nhng thnh thoang cong cu co the b ng
dung sai. ieu nay co the dan en s that bai cua d an do mo hnh mo phong hoac phan mem mo
phong co the a ra cac ch dan sai. S nhan biet cac yeu cau nh lng hay nh tnh cua van e
se ch ra rang mo phong co the khong thch hp va co the giup tranh sai lam nay. Di ay a ra
mot so qui tac can xem xet trc khi chon cong cu phan tch cho d an.
Quy tac1: Van e co the giai quyet bang cach s dung phan tch bang cam tnh thong
thng (common sense analysis).
V du: Mot dch vu ang ky bien so xe o to ang c thiet ke. Cac khach hang en mot cach
ngau nhien e ang ky cac bien so xe vi toc o 100 ngi/gi. Thi gian e mot th ky phuc vu
mot khach hang th thay oi, nhng trung bnh la 5 phut. So th ky toi thieu can la bao nhieu?.
Toc o s dung :
= /c

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ay: la toc o en (100 ngi/gi), la toc o phuc vu (12ngi/gi), c la so lng th ky

can xac nh.
e tranh trnh trang b nghen trong luc phuc vu th < 1 hay c > /
c > 100/12 = 8.33
V vay e tranh trnh trang b nghen th can t nhat la 9 th ky. Cang nhieu th ky th thi gian
i trung bnh se cang giam. Bai toan co the c phan tch bang mo phong, nhng khong can
thiet, va se mat nhieu thi gian e lap trnh hn la bang cach giai tren.
Quy tac 2: Van e co the giai quyet bang phep phan tch (s dung dang kn).
Nhieu mo hnh hang i on nh, nhieu mo hnh xac xuat thong ke va nhieu mo hnh khac ma
co the giai quyet van e bang cach s dung cac phng trnh theo dang kn. ay la phng phap
rat t ton kem so vi mo phong.
Trong v du tren, gia s rang thi gian c phan bo theo dang ham mu. Cac khach hang se
i trong hang i trong thi gian bao lau wQ (trung bnh), neu co 10 th ky ? ay c goi la mot
mo hnh hang i M/M/c trong o M au tien ch so Markovian ngi en, M th hai ch so
Markovian ngi phuc vu, va c la so ngi phuc vu song song. Markovian la cac gia tr co phan
bo theo dang ham mu.
Mot phng trnh co the c s dung e xac nh xac xuat ma he thong la trong, t o so
lng trung bnh trong he thong co the c xac nh. Mot o th c khai trien bi F.S.Hillier va
G.J.Lieberman cho cung mot ket qua. Dung o th nay, tnh c so lng trung bnh trong he
thong L la 10.77. Phng trnh Little lien quan gia L va w la :
L = w
w = L/ =10,77/100 =0,1077 gi
Thi gian cac khach hang i trong hang i hay ang c phuc vu la :
wQ = w 1/
Trong o 1/ la thi gian phuc vu trung bnh, hay 1/12 gi, th :
wQ = 0,1077 0,0833 = 0,0244 gi
S phan tch nay d nhien la nhanh hn so vi s dung mo phong.
Quy tac 3. That s de dang hn e thay oi hay thc hien cac cuoc th nghiem trc tiep tren
he thong thc
ieu nay dng nh la ro rang, nhng khong phai luc nao cung luon luon la nh vay. Nhieu
trng hp ma o mot mo hnh c dung en e giai quyet mot van e se that s mat nhieu
thi gian va tien bac e hoan thanh hn la mot cuoc th nghiem trc tiep n gian.
Kinh nghiem ch ra rang neu van e lien quan en mot he thong co san, ma he thong nay co
the xem xet va o ac nhng khong gay xao tron ang ke th au tien hay tien hanh cac th
nghiem trc tiep e tra li cac cau hoi. Themvao o, o lng trc tiep se giai c tat ca cac cau
hoi lien quan en ieu ma mo hnh co the mo ta khong chi tiet hay ch c hieu lc hoa mot
phan.

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Quy tac 4. Chi ph cho mo phong troi hn chi ph co the tiet kiem
Mac dau hau het moi d an mo phong eu co nhieu li ch mang tnh nh tnh nhng ph
ton cho viec lap mo hnh, thu thap va phan tch d lieu th thng c anh gia chnh xac bang
so tien cu the. e tnh toan mot cach chnh xac chi ph cua mot d an mo phong oi hoi phai co
mot so kinh nghiem. Cac yeu to can phai c quan tam bao gom:

Lap ke hoach d an, cung cap tai lieu qui trnh va xac nh ro van e.

Phat trien va kiem tra mo hnh

Thu thap, xem xet va nh dang d lieu

Hieu lc hoa mo hnh

Th nghiem va phan tch

Cap nhat hay cai tien mo hnh

Cung cap tai lieu s dung va trnh bay d an

Ngoai ra con phai quan tam en chi ph cua phan mem mo phong (neu khong co san) va cac
tai nguyen may tnh. Mo phong mot van e phc tap co the ton en hang chuc nghn USD. Cac
mo hnh ln vi nhieu thu tuc hoat ong va ieu khien logic phc tap ( nh la mot trung tam phan
phoi ln), hoac mo hnh can thiet s dung d lieu thc, d lieu co tnh lch s hoac v tr san xuat
thc te th chi ph se cao hn. Tong quat, chi ph d an mo phong c so sanh vi chi ph co the
tiet kiem. Neu chi ph co the tiet kiem khong ln hn mot cach ro rang so vi chi ph mo phong
c tnh toan th mo hnh co the la khong ung. mot kha canh khac, mot vai d an mo phong
c thc hien do chap nhan rui ro nhan thc c cac he thong, ma cac he thong nay qua phc
tap e co the hieu c.
Quy tac 5. Khong co u cac nguon tai nguyen (resources) thch hp cho d an.
Cac nguon tai nguyen chu yeu c c dung en e hoan thanh mot d an mo phong bao
gom : con ngi, cac phan mem/ may tnh va nguon qu. Mot khau kho khan nhat trong bat ky
mot d an mo phong thanh cong nao la con ngi cac chuyen gia co kinh nghiem, ngi ma co
u kha nang giai quyet van e, la chon cac mc o chi tiet can thiet, chuyen no thanh mot yeu
cau mo hnh mo phong, lap chng trnh cho mo hnh, . . .vv. That la khong kho khan e ong y
vi phat bieu nay, nhng se thc s ngac nhien khi biet co nhieu no lc e giai quyet cac van e
quan trong bang mo phong bi mot ngi t hoac khong qua mot trng lp ao tao nao va khong
co kinh nghiem that s.
Mo phong oi hoi ca hai yeu to nghe thuat va khoa hoc, nghe thuat co c thong qua kinh
nghiem con khoa hoc co c thong qua qua trnh huan luyen thch hp. Phan mem mo phong a
c cai tien bay gi c s dung rong rai vi phan tr giup co san, nhng no khong thay the cho
nguon tai nguyen con ngi that s trong d an mo phong. Neu khong co san mot ngi lap mo
hnh mo phong thch hp trong mot d an, th cach tot nhat la nen i tm s tr giup t ben ngoai.
Nen nh rang mot mo hnh c xay dng kem th te hai hn la khong co mot mo hnh nao ca.
Tai nguyen kho khan tiep theo oi vi mot d an la nguon qu. Gia s co mot d an ang c
xem xet, neu nguon tai nguyen con ngi va phan mem thch hp a co san nhng chi ph tnh
toan cua d an la gap oi nguon qu d an san co th co le se i en mot quyet nh la khong mo
phong. Trong trng hp nay, cac muc tieu cua d an se phai c thoa hiep (hoac anh oi) va
cat giam bt trong thiet ke mo hnh va ke hoach phan tch thc nghiem e tien gan en qu ngan
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sach. ieu nay se dan en s rui ro trong cac ket qua cua d an, bi v mo hnh c xay dng co
the khong co kha nang cung cap cac ket qua ung theo yeu cau. Mo phong hoac phan mem c
chon hoac ca hai se a ra cac ch dan sai lam.
Quy tac 6. Khong co u thi gian e tao ra cac ket qua mo hnh hu ch
Mot loai tai nguyen khong kem phan quan trong so vi cac loai tai nguyen tren la thi gian.
ieu nay thng c gay ra bi mot trong ba ly do sau ay :

Thi han cua d an th qua ngan

Viec phat trien va kiem tra th mo hnh qua dai

C hoi thc te th qua hep

Neu khong co u thi gian e thc hien mot d an ch thc, ngi mo phong phai lam cac mo
hnh tho, bo qua nhieu chi tiet, hay cach khac la cat bt i cac goc nham at en thi han cua
d an. Nhng khong ai co the oan chac la cac chi tiet b bo qua la khong co y ngha oi vi ket
qua?. Khong co sach nao co the nh ngha cac cap o chi tiet se c at au ieu nay da
tren kinh nghiem, co c tren c s t d an nay en d an khac.
Thng khi thi gian cho mot d an mo phong vt qua thi han mo phong c tnh th
thng ngi lam mo phong b o loi la thieu kinh nghiem. Mot mo hnh mo phong nen u chi tiet
e ma cac cau hoi a ra co the eu c giai ap, nhng khong qua chi tiet. Mot loi tieu bieu
cua ngi lam mo phong khong co kinh nghiem la bat au vi qua nhieu chi tiet trong mo hnh,
ma luc nao cung mat mot thi gian kha lau e phat trien va kiem tra th hn thi gian a c
anh gia va tru lieu t trc. Nen ghi nh mot trong nhng cau cham ngon ve mo phong : Neu cac
ket qua khong c s dung th d an co the c xem la that bai. Se tot hn neu khong s dung
mo hnh mo phong khi khong u thi gian cho phep trong toan bo thi han cua d an e tao ra cac
ket qua va a chung vao s dung.
Quy tac 7. Khong co u d lieu khong co d kien e anh gia
Suot giai oan thiet ke mot d an mo phong, mot trong nhng nhiem vu kho khan nhat la xac
nh d lieu can thiet, e thoa man cac mong i cua d an va e ho tr cac mc o chi tiet cho
viec thanh lap mo hnh, la co san hay khong va neu khong no co the c lay bang cach nao.
Trong mot vai trng hp d lieu la khong co san, khong thc te hoac qua at e thu thap, do o
can kiem tra can than ieu nay trc khi tien hanh mot d an va xay dng mo hnh.
Co the anh gia cac gia tr d lieu bang cach thc hien kiem tra o nhay, nhng ieu nay oi
hoi phai anh gia ve day gia tr cua cac loai d lieu quan trong.
Quy tac 8. Mo hnh khong the thc hien hoac hp thc hoa c
Van e nay thng gay ra bi thieu mot trong ba thanh phan c ban : con ngi, d lieu, va
thi gian.

Ngi phan tch d an co the khong biet lam the nao e thc hien chnh xac mo hnh
(thieu huan luyen ay u hoac kinh nghiem).

Khong co d lieu thc te hu ch e so sanh cac ket qua mo hnh oi vi cac trang thai
th khac nhau nham hieu lc hoa mo hnh.

Thi han cua d an khong cho phep e th va kiem tra ay u hoac la hieu lc hoa cac
hoat ong.

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Thu tuc hp l au tien la hoan thanh mot trng hp c ban bang cach so sanh cac ket qua
mo phong oi vi cac ket qua cua he thong thc, sau o s dung trng hp nay e so sanh cac
trng hp th trong tng lai. Co nhieu phng phap khac ma co the c s dung, ngay ca khi
khong co d lieu cho trng hp c ban. Mot vai phng phap nayc trnh bay di ay:

Kiem tra suy bien ( Degeneracy test)

S kiem tra au tien nay e biet hanh vi mo hnh co suy bien tng ng vi cac ngo
vao vo cung ln hay khong. ieu g se xay ra neu toc o vao tr nen that s cao? ap
ng cua mo hnh se nh the nao? Hien tng b nghen(bottlenecks) co the c cai
thien nhng ni mong muon hay khong?

Kiem tra hp thc hoa be mat (Face validity test)

Kiem tra nay ap dung kha nang phan oan thong thng e phan tch cac ngo ra mo
hnh oi vi trng hp c ban. Cac ngo ra co hp l hay khong?. Co the giai thch
hanh vi cua mo hnh da tren kinh nghiem vi cac he thong tng t hay khong?.

Kiem tra phan tch o nhay

oi vi cac trng hp kiem tra lap lai vi cac gia tr ngo vao khac nhau, cac ngo ra
thay oi theo hng d kien hay khong?. Tat ca chung co cung cach dien bien hay
khong?.

Cac thu tuc kiem tra nay co the giup xay dng o tin cay trong mo hnh, nhng van co the hoi
la lieu no co u e ho tr cac quyet nh, c a ra da tren c s cac ket qua mo phong hay
khong?. Neu mo hnh khong c tham nh va hieu lc hoa mot cach chnh xac, cac ket qua se
b nghi ng va co the khong c chap nhan.
Quy tac 9. Cac mong i cua d an co the khong at c
Chn phan mi that bai nham at c cac mong i cua d an do thieu kha nang trong viec
huan luyen ay u ngi ieu hanh ve nhng g la hien thc va co the at c khi giai quyet van
e vi mo hnh mo phong. Ngi ieu hanh co the co cac d tnh khong hp l thng ho mong
muon qua nhieu hoac thi gian thc hien qua nhanh. Khi ieu nay khong the ap ng th ho co
the o loi cho ky thuat mo phong hoac ngi phan tch. Sau ay la cac dang khac cua van e:
Ngi khong co kinh nghiem trong mo phong thng ket luan rang mot khi mot he thong c
mo hnh hoa, mo hnh se co kha nang tra li bat ky cau hoi nao ma ho yeu cau. That la kho khan
e giai thch, ac biet trong d an ma cac mo hnh ch co kha nang tra li cac cau hoi nh trc
ma chung a c thiet ke e ap ng.
Mot phan mi con lai la anh gia qua cao ve nang lc cua ngi phan tch hoac kha nang ve
phan mem ang c dung.
Quy tac 10. Neu hanh vi cua he thong la qua phc tap, hoac khong the nao xac nh mot
cach ro rang
He thong c mo phong phai c hieu mot cach thong suot trc khi mo phong hoac la
ngi phan tch se b buoc e oan hoac la sang tao ra. Mot so he thong th phc tap en noi viec
xay dng mot mo hnh chnh xac (trong mot thi han va ngan sach co the chap nhan c) la
khong the. Thng ay la trng hp ma o hanh vi con ngi la mot phan quan trong trong he
thong c mo phong.

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1.7 CAC BC THC HIEN MO HNH MO PHONG

Mo hnh mo phong tng t nh nhng mon hoc ky thuat khac, e tr thanh mot chuyen gia
mo phong, can phai c huan luyen va co kinh nghiem va thc s khong phai de dang e ngi
khac tin vao mnh. o la va la nghe thuat va la khoa hoc. Di ay trnh bay cac bc thc
hien hoac nguyen tac ch ao ma ngi lam mo hnh - mo phong can xem xet khi thc hien mo
hnh va mo phong. Noi dung cua moi bc can thc hien mot cach hoan hao trc khi chuyen
sang bc khac.
Bc 1: Xac nh ro ac iem cua van e
Mot kha canh cua mo hnh mo phong la phai xac nh chnh xac van e ma no phai giai
quyet. ay co le la bc quan trong nhat, nhng thng ch c xem qua loa.
Mot quan niem sai lam thng co nhng ngi cha quen vi mo phong la khi mot mo hnh
c xay dng th no co the cung cap cau tra li cho tat ca cac cau hoi lien he en he thong c
mo phong. Nh nhng phng phap tnh toan khac, mo hnh mo phong ch lam c nhng ieu
ma muc ch thiet ke at ra va thc te th ngi ta khong thiet ke mot mo hnh lam c moi th.
Tuy nhien viec xac nh can than pham vi thiet ke mot mo hnh vi va mc o chi tiet nh the nao
la mot viec kho khan. Cach tot nhat e bat au la xay dng mot danh sach nhng cau hoi ma mo
hnh phai tra li. e ro rang hn, v du nh hoi "o dai toi a cua bang tai can s dung la bao
nhieu? " th hn la hoi "He thong nen ln c nao?". Nhng cau hoi nen m ra hng suy ngh . V
du nh hoi " Phai phan thanh may nhanh nho e giai quyet?" th hn la hoi " Co phai can phan
thanh 10 nhanh e giai quyet? ".
Cac cau hoi trong danh sach can sap xep lai theo th t va phan thanh hai loai:

Nhng cau hoi then chot ma mo hnh phai co kha nang tra li
Nhng cau hoi ma ngi lam mo phong mong muon mo hnh co cau tra li

Viec phan loai cau hoi giup ngi lam mo hnh-mo phong tap trung vao hieu qua cua viec
xay dng mo hnh va hng viec s dung ngan sach va thi gian mot cach hp ly.
Trong suot bc nay, co luc phai quyet nh ngng viec mo phong lai cho en khi hieu he
thong ro rang hn. Nen tranh viec bo bt nhng cau hoi c coi la a co san cau tra li, hoac la
coi kha canh o cua he thong la khong quan trong hoac khong lien quan en van e can giai
quyet. bc nay, viec xac nh li ch mang lai t nhng cau tra li moi cau hoi la can thiet.
Tuy nhien co qua nhieu cau hoi se lam mo hnh cong kenh va se gay kho khan khi xay dng,
chng minh no co gia tr, hoac tien ch khi s dung.
Giai quyet mot van e ung la cong viec quan trong. Neu mo hnh sau khi hoan thanh khong
thch hp e tra li nhng cau hoi at ra, tien trnh c anh gia la that bai cho du mo hnh la
"ung" th ngi lam mo hnh - mo phong co the thc hien lai bc nay (ac biet la sau bc 2 va
3) e tin chac rang mo hnh khong hng sai ch.
Bc 2: Hieu ro he thong
Sau khi xac nh van e can giai quyet, bc ke tiep la tm hieu mot cach can than he thong
hoac ieu kien mo phong. " Khong the mo hnh hoa cai khong hieu " o la mot tien e n gian,
nhng nhng ngi lam mo hnh-mo phong lan au thng bo qua no khi voi vang "vach ranh
gii" cho mo hnh. iem quan trong ay la khong nen qua cang thang.

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Nen bat au xem xet nhng thiet b nao co the co e s dung. Neu nh he thong la mot he
thong khong co san th viec thc hien mo hnh - mo phong phai tien hanh t au. Neu lam tiep
cong viec a co san th nen xem xet lai mot cach can than ban ve thiet ke do nhng ngi lam
trc a thc hien. Nhng phan cua he thong can c xem xet bao gom: cau tao va ac iem cac
phan t cua he thong, chc nang cac phan t, moi tng tac gia cac phan t, s tng tac cua tien
trnh va thao tac ieu khien quan trong va neu can nen trao oi vi ngi giam sat hay ngi van
hanh. Sau o at cac cau hoi, ghi chu va lam bang thong ke thanh tai lieu "mo ta van hanh " cho
he thong. Neu co the, e ngh nhng ngi giam sat thiet b xem lai va chu giai cho tai lieu.
Sau khi xem xet cac thiet b, dng ban ve thiet ke he thong vi s giup cua may tnh. ieu
nay giup cho viec hieu he thong c ro hn va bo tr cac cau hoi e tra li. Ngoai ra chung c
dung lam c s e phat trien mo hnh mot cach linh hoat.
Cuoi cung, ap dung giac quan thong thng la tra li cac cau hoi nh sau: Tat ca moi kha
canh cua he thong a c hieu ro va u e tra li cac cau hoi then chot hay khong?. Co the thiet
ke mo hnh "tren giay" ma no se cho cau tra li vi moi cau hoi hay khong?. Chang han, cau hoi
co lien quan en thi gian hoan tat mot trung tam phan phoi, ay la van e ma nhng suy luan
logic thong thng khong the cho cau tra li va ch co the biet khi a lam th nhieu lan trc khi
tien hanh.
Bc 3: Xac nh ro muc ch va muc tieu cua d an
au tien, can phai hieu ro he thong can mo phong, bc tiep theo la len ke hoach d an mo
phong. Nen bat au bang viec xac nh ro muc ch va muc tieu cua d an. ieu nay quan he mat
thiet vi viec xac nh cac cau hoi then chot va co the se can lap lai hai bc nay cho en khi
chung tr nen chac chan va c ban ieu hanh chap nhan. Muc tieu cua ngi lam mo hnh la
gii han kch thc va pham vi cua mo hnh en mc u e thoa man muc tieu cua d an va tra
li cac cau hoi chu yeu. Cung nh nhng phng phap tnh toan khac, s co gang xay dng va
lam hieu lc mot mo hnh co gia tr th gia tang theo ham mu vi cac yeu cau e ra.
Bat au, nen quyet nh hoan canh nao se c mo phong, chang han nh ngay cao iem,
hoac ngay bnh thng va khong xuat hien trng hp ngoai le, hoac la vao nhng ngay "ca ba"
cuoi thang. Khi xac nh c chu trnh van hanh bnh thng cua thiet b th ngi lam mo hnh
mo phong co the xac nh chu ky hoac o dai thi gian cho moi hoan canh. Chang han, neu muc
tieu la xac nh cac yeu cau ve nang suat (loai yeu cau mo phong ien hnh) th can phai thu thap
nhng d lieu trc o nhng ngay cao iem va gii han so lng cac thong so can thiet (bc
8). Nhng hoan canh them vao co the c xem xet, tuy nhien can biet rang moi hoan canh mi
oi hoi phai xem xet lai mot cach can than cac kha nang va kch c cua mo hnh va kha nang
them vao tap thong so ngo vao mi.
Tiep theo, xac nh tieu chuan anh gia nao se c s dung khi phan tch ket qua cua mo
hnh. Cai g la cac gia tr o chu yeu cho mc o hieu qua?. Quyet nh nao c at ra vi muc
ch co li cho quan tr?. Mot lan na, can phan biet hai pham tru yeu cau va mong muon mot
vai thong so co the lam tang tnh phc tap cua mo hnh va co the khong can thiet.
Cuoi cung, lap bang thong ke cac muc tieu cua d an va xem chung co thoa nhng oi hoi
cua d an hay khong. Phai chac chan rang moi yeu cau cua d an a c giai quyet. Neu khong,
phai dng ngay va giai quyet nhng yeu cau khac, neu khong ngi lam mo phong co the se gap
nhng rui ro do tnh tin cay cua mo hnh em lai ma ket qua cuoi cung la s thanh bai cua d
an.
BC 4 : Phai hoc e co nhng khai niem c ban
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Mac du ay la bc thch hp can hoan tat trc khi nhan lam d an mo phong chuyen biet,
nhieu ngi thay rang no la ieu de thc hien neu ho b thuc ay bi van e thc te ma ho can
giai quyet. ieu nay co the goi la " hoc ung thi iem ". Neu la ngi mi bat au lam mo hnh
mo phong th phai chac chan rang thi gian thc hien c an nh trong ke hoach cua d an
cho phep mnh hoan tat bc nay.
BC 5 :oan chac rang mo phong la cong cu ung an
Sau khi hoan tat bc 4, nen dng lai va hoi " Mo phong co phai la cong cu ung an e giai
quyet van e hay khong ? " v co the co nhng cong cu co gia tr khac, khong at hn va nhanh
hn e giai quyet van e. Nhng cong cu nay co the la " mo hnh " bang tnh tnh trong may tnh
hoac giai phap giai tch dang chu trnh kn, s dung mot vai dang cua cac chng trnh tnh
toan. T quan iem thc te, mo hnh mo phong khong cung cap giai phap toi u, no ch tng
thuat mot cach n gian nhng trang thai cua he thong khi thay oi nhng thong so au vao.
Ngi s dung phai c hng dan nhng kinh nghiem mo phong va cach phan tch e at c
mot giai phap hoac la cau tra li co the chap nhan.
Nhng thuoc tnh chu yeu cua van e, ma no co the loai tr viec s dung cac ky thuat giai
khac, bao gom s tng tac cua he thong phc tap va tnh ong cua he thong. S tng tac phc
tap gia cac thanh phan cua he thong th kho the hien dang tap phng trnh ma chung can thiet
cho phng phap thao chng toan hoc. Cac phan t cua he thong ma no tng tac va thay oi
theo thi gian va cac hanh vi thay oi theo thi gian nay rat quan trong can chu y th kho the
hien trong mot bang tnh hoac ky thuat giai tnh khac (ch co the cung cap mot cach tong quat
nhng gia tr trung bnh cho cac so o can giai).
Neu ngi lam mo hnh mo phong khong chac chan ve ky thuat giai ma mnh s dung th nen
nh mot chuyen gia giup mnh xac nh cau tra li.
BC 6: Co c s ung ho cua ngi ieu hanh
ay la mot bc giong nh mot ieu hien nhien, nhng no lai thng thuc ay d an tien ve
pha trc. Ngi lam mo hnh mo phong phai chiem c s ung ho ro rang t ngi ieu hanh
t khi bat au d an, hoac la buoc ngi ieu hanh phai mien cng chap nhan ket qua(Neu cac
ket qua khong c s dung th d an mo phong c xem la that bai)
Thanh phan chu yeu cua bc nay la s giao duc. Ngi ieu hanh trong hau het cac cong ty
th co rat t hoac la khong co kinh nghiem g ve mo hnh mo phong. Nhieu nha quan ly co nhng
mong i rat hao huyen ve tien trnh, thng la s lien quan gia thi gian an nh cho d an va
pham vi hoac nhng kha nang cua mo hnh. ieu au tien e co c s ung ho cua ngi ieu
hanh la ngi lam mo hnh mo phong phai giup ho hieu c tien trnh va nhng g co the mong
ch t d an.
Bat au bang nhng buoi hop ngan e xem lai muc tieu cua d an, bo tr thi gian, pham vi
cua mo hnh, cac cau hoi se tra li, va phng phap thc hien c s dung. Cung cap nhng
thong tin c s ve tien trnh. Thao luan nhng cai ma mo hnh co the lam va khong the lam. Mot
thu thuat hu ch la xem xet nhng iem noi bat cua d an tng t mot cong ty khac - au la
iem can phai hoc, ieu nay chiem bao lau, o la nhng ieu ma bat ky mot nha quan ly nao cung
quan tam.
Nhng buoi hop ngan c to chc thng xuyen se giup cho ngi ieu hanh c cung cap
thong tin eu an ve tien trnh . oi vi nhng nha quan ly vang mat trong cac buoi hop th a
cho ho nhng ban tom tat ve cac tieu e chu yeu. Khi mo hnh a c hoan thanh va c kiem
tra, bao gom viec ieu khien trong tien trnh phan tch th co the co nhieu s phat hien va quyet
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nh. Neu co mat trong tat ca cac buoi hop, ho se co s hieu biet sau sac ve tien trnh, hieu va va
chia se nh " ngi ong s " ve ket qua nhan c.
Tranh thu s ung ho cua ngi ieu hanh la mot oi hoi lien tuc no khong xay ra mot lan
(tc la thi iem au cua tien trnh ). Theo ly thuyet, mo hnh mo phong c xay dng e tra
li cac cau hoi kho nhng cau hoi ma trong o ngi ieu hanh co nhng li ch ln lao. Nha
quan ly oi hoi cang nhieu th ho se anh gia tien trnh cang cao va hoc d an cang nhieu.
BC 7: Nghien cu ve cong cu phan mem mo phong
Thc hien mot la chon trong so kha ln phan mem co gia tr cho mo phong nhng s kien ri
rac luon gay hoang mang cho nhng ngi mi lam viec trong lnh vc mo phong. Tot hn het
ngi lam mo hnh mo phong nen tien hanh bc nay bang cach thu hep s tham do cua mnh
trong khoang 50 phan mem ma no c e cap trong Simulation Buyers Guide do IIE Solutions
phat hanh vao thang 05 nam 1996 . Thu hep s tham do cua mnh bang cach at nhng cau hoi
nh : Ngi lam mo hnh-mo phong muon s dung phan mem mo phong cua nha san xuat nao?,
hoac muon mo phong bang ngon ng nao?, can phan mem co nh hay la phan mem co the ieu
khien c?, can o hoa hay khong, va neu can th co dung 3-D hay khong?.
Khi ngi lam mo hnh - mo phong thu hep s tham do cua mnh trong khoang 5 phan mem
mo phong bang cach s dung nhng cau hoi neu tren va nhng cau hoi khac phu hp vi tnh
trang cua mnh th can tap trung ky vao nang lc au vao, nang lc s ly, nang lc au ra, moi
trng mo phong, s tr giup va gia thanh . Moi s quan tam nay se lam tang so lng van e,
qua nhieu e x tr trong mot khoang thi gian ngan nh vay. V vay di ay e ngh xem xet
cac yeu to sau:
o chnh xac va mc chi tiet cua mo hnh co the rat quan trong
Chu y nhng kha nang manh co the lam tang hieu suat ngi lam mo hnh mo phong
Chon toc o ln nhat co the nhan c, bi v at nhat la thi gian ch i cua ngi
lam mo hnh - mo phong
Can than vi nhng muc quang cao hoac la nhng phan chay th, no khong phai la
nhng thong tin ve tiem nang thc s cua phan mem t ngi ban
ieu quan trong la viec ng dung va kha nang la g?
Gach di nhng cau hoi nh "Cong cu mo hnh mo phong co phai la cong cu ung hay
khong ? ". Khi mua phan mem, cach tot nhat la lam theo ch dan sau:
Co hay khong cac nha cung cap phan mem mo phong, giai quyet van e hep cua d
an?
Tm kiem nhng s ch dan ma no co the cho biet nhng kha nang va nhng han che
cua phan mem
Tm kiem cac y kien cua cac nha t van ngi a s dung nhieu phan mem
Tm kiem cac y kien cua cac cong ty a s dung nhng phan mem tng t
Tham d cac hoi ngh lien quan en mo hnh mo phong
Tham d nhng khoa huan luyen s dung phan mem mo phong

BC 8: Xac nh thong so nao la can thiet va co gia tr

Co mot vai loai thong so co the s dung trong mo phong. Chung bao gom thong so da tren
c s thi gian, nh thi gian tao s lien ket, ty so yeu cau, thi gian nap d kien, thi gian khong
nap d kien, thi gian tien hanh, thi gian sai, thi gian sa lai, va nhng thi gian kiem tra. Mot
loai thong so khac c s dung trong mo phong bao gom he so kiem tra sai, he so yeu cau cho
moi may va he so cho moi phan.
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Mo Hnh Hoa Mo Phong

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Cac van e thong so xuat hien khi ngi lam mo hnh mo phong co nhng mau nho, bang tom
tat thong so, thong so nh tnh, thong so d oan (anh gia bang cach oan ), thong so sai (chang
han nh so lieu nam ngoai thay v la thong so nam nay ).
Nhng nguon thong so bao gom thong so quan sat trc tiep, thong so do hoc hoac thong so co
t trc, thong so o ghi t ong . Tuy nhien, thong so o ghi t ong co the khong hoan thien (do
may moc khong chay hay ngi van hanh i vang). oi khi, thong so t he thong tng t cung co
the s dung . Nhng viec suy luan t nguon nay co the dan en rui ro.
Mot nguon thong so khac la anh gia cua ngi van hanh. Nhng ieu nay luon a en s
nghi ng ln bi v con ngi la nhng nha tien tri toi. Ho xem nhe nhng cai vo cung tan va ch
nhan manh hien tai .
Ngi ban phan mem can ch ro hoac gii thieu cac nguon co the s dung. Tuy nhien, nhng
ieu nay co the ch em lai s hy vong cao ma thoi (tc la o tin cay cua he thong co the c
anh gia qua cao).
Thng co nhng trng hp khong co thong so hien hu th he thong c xem la giai
oan thiet ke (he thong khong ton tai). Mot kha nang khac la khi thong so khong thch hp a
c thu thap.
Co nhng ky thuat co the s dung khi khong co thong so hoac la khi thong so khong that ay
u. Chang han, neu tien trnh c ban ngau nhien ung trong cac ieu kien tong quat chan chan,
ket qua co the phan bo theo ham mu
BC 9: Khai trien cac gia nh ve van e
Co mot so ly do cho rang s thanh cong hoan hao chnh nh quan tam en bc nay. V du,
cac gia nh ung bao gom viec vach ranh gii thch hp cho he thong. Neu ranh gii qua rong
ln th lam tang thi gian va ph ton vao qua trnh hoan thanh mo phong. Neu ranh gii qua nho
th nhng cau hoi at ra cho mo phong co the se khong tra li c. Tng t, cung co the quyet
nh s phc tap cua mo phong. o phc tap cua mo hnh nen u e tra li cac cau hoi c at ra
va cung khong nen phc tap hn .
Theo quan iem khac, cac gia nh la quan trong cuoi qua trnh mo phong. Se nh the nao,
neu co li bnh pham cuoi qua trnh mo phong la mot van e sai a c giai quyet. Nhng li
bnh pham nh vay ch co the dng lai bi quan iem cong nhan cac gia nh luc khi au d an.
Tnh huong tot nhat la co c s chap nhan hoan toan cac gia nh va chng minh rang cac
gia nh la co can c va qua trnh mo phong la ung. Trong trng hp co y kien bai bac, can
thng lng gia han thi gian hoac la them nguon d lieu e hoan thanh tien trnh mo phong.
BC 10 : Xac nh au ra can thiet e giai quyet van e a nh
ay, co mot so au ra co the dung bao gom so lng thong so a vao qua trnh, WIP, cach
s dung, thi gian tien han, so lng cong viec cham, va thi gian ma nhng cong viec lam sau
co the c e cap en. Co the at ra cac cau hoi e giup cho viec phan tch van e nh sau:
He thong yeu cau bao nhieu thong so ?
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Mo Hnh Hoa Mo Phong

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ap ng lai tai iem nh cua chu ky se nh the nao? S khoi phuc khi co nhng
nguyen nhan gay tat nghen va don hang trong mot thi gian ngan se nh the nao?
Kha nang cua he thong nh the nao ?
Neu xuat hien van e nao o th nguyen nhan la g ?
Nhng muc ch cua nhng viec lam tren la e hieu ch khong phai e tnh so lng. Hn
na, viec hieu nay lien quan en cac nghien cu mang tnh thong ke. Nhieu ngi khong thch s
dung cac so lieu thong ke trong mo phong. Co le ho cha bao gi nghien cu ky thuat thong ke,
kiem nghiem gia thuyet, hoac bat ky mot cai g o co noi dung tng t. Cung co the, ho a c
hoc t lau nen bay gi a quen mat nhng yeu to c ban. Va co the ho a hoc nhng khong thc
s hieu y ngha c che dau ang sau nhng cong thc. Cho du ri vao trng hp nao th kha
nang phan tch cac thong so au ra thng c tch hp trong nhieu phan mem mo phong tron
goi. Cung co the mua them cac goi cong them cho nhng phan mem ac biet. Mot s la chon
khac la phan mem phan tch c thong so mo phong au ra.
Muon s dung bat ky ky thuat nao cung can phai hieu ro no. Va co rat nhieu s tr giup viec
hieu nay c tch hp trong phan mem mo phong.
BC 11: Viec mo phong se c ieu khien t ben ngoai hay la ben trong
Thc ra, co mot so s phoi hp dc dung e mo phong . Viec mo phong phai c ieu
khien t ben trong, ben ngoai hoac la theo mot con ng nao o ket hp ca hai .
oi vi nhng ngi s dung lan au, mo phong s dung ieu khien ben trong co the la thieu
than trong. ay, co qua nhieu viec phai quyet nh va do o co the ho se mac sai lam. Neu co
mot nha t van hng dan th ho se ch cho ban nen s dung ky thuat nao thch hp cho viec mo
phong ban au. Mot cong ty th co the hoc nh vao s tng tac va "tham dan". Mot kha nang
khac la nha t van lam viec vi cong ty cho lan au tien ap dung ky thuat mo phong. S khac biet
cua ieu nay chnh la " bc nhay ban au". Nha t van giup cho d an tien trien, sau o
chuyen giao s kiem soat cho mot nhom ngi thuoc cong ty.
oi vi ngi khong thng xuyen s dung, th can phai co thi gian cho viec on lai. Chang
han, neu mo phong c s dung moi nam mot lan trong ba thang, con chn thang khong s dung
th nha phan tch ( neu cung la mot ngi ) phai xem lai phan mem ( hoac la cac phan mem khac)
moi nam. Them vao o, cung mot phan mem co the co s thay oi ve ham chc nang cua cac
phien ban sau. Can can nhac trng hp ma o co mot gii han ngan oi vi viec hoan thanh
cong viec mo phong.
Thi gian bo vao viec on lai se c tr vao thi gian danh cho hoat ong mo phong. Nha t
van co the chng minh mot cach chac chan gia tr cua mnh trong trng hp nay.
oi vi nhng ngi thng xuyen s dung mo phong th co the thanh lap mot nhom ngi
trong cong ty. Hieu qua lam viec cua nhom nay co the c nang cao vi s giup cua nha t
van neu co yeu cau qua cao hoac la khi co nhng han che nao o.
BC 12 : Bat au tien trnh
Co mot vai iem can lu y ve hnh thc khi bat au tien trnh nh sau :
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Mo Hnh Hoa Mo Phong

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Nen ghi vao nhat ky cong tac nhng viec kho khan oi vi moi e muc. Viec bat au
mo phong se thay lac quan hn, tien trien nhanh chong hn va duy tr s thch thu trong
cong ty.

Neu nhng s kien quan trong va co the se co nhieu s kien quan trong. ieu nay se
co ch cho nhng ngi thc hien a ra nhng quyet nh ve cac giai phap cho van e.
Neu ho bao ve y kien cua mnh th ho phai co nang lc ng dung cao hn vao viec
hoan thanh d an.

Len ke hoach cho nhng tng tac . Khong nen suy oan trc cac tng tac ma nen
giup chung t the hien. ieu nay am bao giup ngi a ra quyet nh tiep tuc co
hng thu vi tien trnh .

Phai co cau tra li oi vi cong viec va muc tieu cua tien trnh. ieu nay ch ra rang co
s thch thu khi nhng ngi thc hien cong viec tranh luan ve nhng quyet nh c
a ra. Cung co the co nhng y kien tot oi vi cong viec va cac muc tieu. Cung co
nhng trng hp ln co ca s ong gop y kien cua nhng ngi ben ngoai nhom mo
phong.

Phai co oc thc te. Neu a ra muc tieu la quan tam ti viec hoan thanh hn mot d an
mo phong, th o chnh la quan iem nay. Nhng y kien lieu mang th co the dan en
viec hoan thanh nhanh chong va gia re nhng ma ngi ta cung hoan toan co the chng
minh la no co the lam hong d an mo phong.

Hoan thanh mot cach chac chan . Cuoi cung cua viec bat au tien trnh nen tong ket lai
cac y kien ma nhng ngi tham d neu ra. o la nhng y kien co the se giup cho s
thanh cong cua d an.

1.8 TNG LAI CUA MO PHONG

Cac ky thuat nh mo phong trong thi gian thc va thc te ao ( VR virtual Reality) se
thong tr hoan toan cac lnh vc hang au nh la giai tr va khoa hoc vao the ky ti.Vi gia ca
ngay cang giam va cau hnh ngay cag manh, may tnh ca nhan co the ap ng cac yeu cau cho
viec xay dng cac mo hnh thc te va cho chung lung lay e thay ieu g se xay ra va e nghien
cu nhieu ve thc te bang cach lam mo hnh ve no.

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