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Contents 1
Contents 1
The Internet boom changed all this. Firms no longer needed strong financials
and a solid history to go public. Instead, IPOs were done by smaller startups
seeking to expand their businesses. There's nothing wrong with wanting to
expand, but most of these firms had never made a profit and didn't plan on
being profitable any time soon. (Read about what some analysts consider
the second dot-com bubble in What To Expect From The Groupon IPO and
What To Expect From The Zynga IPO.)
Founded on venture capital funding, they spent like Texans trying to
generate enough excitement to make it to the market before burning
through all their cash. In cases like this, companies might be suspected of
doing an IPO just to make the founders rich. This is known as an exit
strategy, implying that there's no desire to stick around and create value for
shareholders. The IPO then becomes the end of the road rather than the
beginning. (Not every dot-com company went bust. Read more in 5
Successful Companies That Survived The Dotcom Bubble.)
How can this happen? Remember: an IPO is just selling stock. It's all about
the sales job. If you can convince people to buy stock in your company, you
can raise a lot of money.
The Underwriting Process
Getting a piece of a hot IPO is very difficult, if not impossible. To understand
why, we need to know how an IPO is done, a process known as underwriting.
When a company wants to go public, the first thing it does is hire an
investment bank. A company could theoretically sell its shares on its own,
but realistically, an investment bank is required - it's just the way Wall Street
works. Underwriting is the process of raising money by either debt or equity
(in this case we are referring to equity). You can think of underwriters as
middlemen between companies and the investing public. The biggest
underwriters as of February 2012 are Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse First
Boston and Morgan Stanley. (For related reading, see Wanna Be A Bigwig?
Try Investment Banking and The Rise Of The Modern Investment Bank.)
The company and the investment bank will first meet to negotiate the deal.
Items usually discussed include the amount of money a company will raise,
the type of securities to be issued and all the details in the underwriting
agreement. The deal can be structured in a variety of ways. For example, in
a firm commitment, the underwriter guarantees that a certain amount will
be raised by buying the entire offer and then reselling to the public. In a
best efforts agreement, however, the underwriter sells securities for the
company but doesn't guarantee the amount to be raised. Also, investment
banks are hesitant to shoulder all the risk of an offering. Instead, they form
a syndicate of underwriters. One underwriter leads the syndicate and the
others sell a part of the issue.
Once all sides agree to a deal, the investment bank puts together a
registration statement to be filed with the SEC. This document contains
information about the offering as well as company info such as financial
statements, management background, any legal problems, where the
money is to be used and insider holdings. The SEC then requires a cooling
off period, in which it investigates and makes sure all material information
has been disclosed. Once the SEC approves the offering, a date (the
effective date) is set when the stock will be offered to the public.
During the cooling off period the underwriter puts together what is known as
the red herring. This is an initial prospectus containing all the information
about the company except for the offer price and the effective date, which
aren't known at that time. With the red herring in hand, the underwriter and
company attempt to hype and build up interest for the issue. They go on a
road show - also known as the "dog and pony show" - where the big
institutional investors are courted.
As the effective date approaches, the underwriter and company sit down
and decide on the initial share price. This isn't an easy decision: it depends
on the company, the success of the road show and, most importantly,
current market conditions. Of course, it's in both parties' interest to get as
much as possible.
Finally, the securities are sold on the stock market and the money is
collected from investors.
What About Me?
As you can see, the road to an IPO is a long and complicated one. You may
have noticed that individual investors aren't involved until the very end. This
is because small investors aren't the target market. They don't have the
cash and, therefore, hold little interest for the underwriters.
If underwriters think an IPO will be successful, they'll usually pad the
pockets of their favorite institutional client with shares at the IPO price. The
only way for you to get shares (known as an IPO allocation) is to have an
account with one of the investment banks that is part of the underwriting
syndicate. But don't expect to open an account with $1,000 and be
showered with an allocation. You need to be a frequently trading client with
a large account to get in on a hot IPO.
Bottom line, your chances of getting early shares in an IPO are slim to none
unless you're on the inside. If you do get shares, it's probably because
nobody else wants them. Granted, there are exceptions to every rule, and it
would be incorrect for us to say that it's impossible. Just keep in mind that
the probability isn't high if you are a small investor. (Read Investing In IPO
ETFs to learn how you can get a piece of the IPO action.)
Lock-Up Agreements
A lock-up agreement may restrict the stock's trading somewhat after the
company goes public. A lock-up agreement is a legally binding contract
between the underwriters and insiders of a company prohibiting these
individuals from selling any shares of stock for a specified period of time.
Lock-up periods typically last 180 days (six months) but can on occasion last
for as little as 120 days or as long as one year.
Underwriters will have company executives, managers, employees and
venture capitalists sign lock-up agreements to ensure an element of stability
in the stock's price in the first few months of trading. When lock-ups expire,
restricted people are permitted to sell their stock, which sometimes (if these
insiders are looking to sell their stock) results in a drastic drop in share price
due to the huge increase in supply of stock. (Learn more in IPO Lock-Ups
Stop Insider Selling.)
5.5.5 Rights
Cash-strapped companies can turn to rights issues to raise money when
they really need it. In these rights offerings, companies grant
shareholders a chance to buy new shares at a discount to the current
trading price. Let's look at how rights issue work and what they mean for
all shareholders.
Defining a Rights Issue and Why It's Used
A rights issue is an invitation to existing shareholders to purchase
additional new shares in the company. More specifically, this type of
issue gives existing shareholders securities called "rights," which give
the shareholders the right to purchase new shares at a discount to the
market price on a stated future date. Essentially, the company is giving
shareholders a chance to increase their exposure to the stock at a
discount price.
Until the date at which the new shares can be purchased, shareholders
may trade the rights on the market the same way they would trade
ordinary shares. The rights issued to a shareholder have a value, thus
compensating current shareholders for the future dilution of their
existing shares' value.
Troubled companies typically use rights issues to pay down debt,
especially when they are unable to borrow more money. But not all
companies that pursue rights offerings are shaky. Some with clean
balance sheets use them to fund acquisitions and growth strategies. For
reassurance that it will raise the finances, a company will usually, but not
always, have its rights issueunderwritten by an investment bank. (Read
more about investment banking in The World's Most Powerful
Bankers, Goldman Sachs By The Numbers and How To Get A Job On Wall
Street.)
How Rights Issues Work
So, how do rights issues work? The best way to explain is through an
example.
Let's say you own 1,000 shares in Wobble Telecom, each of which is
worth $5.50. The company is in a bit of financial trouble and sorely needs
to raise cash to cover its debt obligations. Wobble therefore announces a
rights offering, in which it plans to raise $30 million by issuing 10 million
shares to existing investors at a price of $3 each. But this issue is a
three-for-10 rights issue. In other words, for every 10 shares you hold,
Wobble is offering you another three at a deeply discounted price of $3.
This price is 45% less than the $5.50 price at which Wobble stock trades.
(For further reading, see Understanding Stock Splits.)
As a shareholder, you essentially have three options when considering
what to do in response to the rights issue. You can (1) subscribe to the
rights issue in full, (2) ignore your rights or (3) sell the rights to someone
else. Here's how to pursue each option and the possible outcomes.
1. Take up the rights to purchase in full
To take advantage of the rights issue in full, you would need to spend $3
for every Wobble share that you are entitled to under the issue. As you
hold 1,000 shares, you can buy up to 300 new shares (three shares for
every 10 you already own) at this discounted price of $3, giving a total
price of $900.
However, while the discount on the newly issued shares is 45%, it will
not stay there. The market price of Wobble shares will not be able to stay
at $5.50 after the rights issue is complete. The value of each share will
be diluted as a result of the increased number of shares issued. To see if
the rights issue does in fact give a material discount, you need to
estimate how much Wobble's share price will be diluted.
In estimating this dilution, remember that you can never know for certain
the future value of your expanded holding of the shares, since it can be
affected by any number of business and market factors. But the
theoretical share price that will result after the rights issue is complete which is the ex-rights share price - is possible to calculate. This price is
found by dividing the total price you will have paid for all your Wobble
shares by the total number of shares you will own. This is calculated as
follows:
$5,500
$900
$6,400
$4.92
($6,400.00/1,300
shares)
So, in theory, as a result of the introduction of new shares at the deeply
discounted price, the value of each of your existing shares will decline
from $5.50 to $4.92. But remember, the loss on your existing
shareholding is offset exactly by the gain in share value on the new
rights: the new shares cost you $3, but they have a market value of
$4.92. These new shares are taxed in the same year as you purchased
the original shares, and they are carried forward to count as investment
income, but there is no interest or other tax penalties charged on this
carried-forward, taxable investment income.
2. Ignore the rights issue
You may not have the $900 to purchase the additional 300 shares at $3
each, so you can always let your rights expire. But this is not normally
recommended. If you choose to do nothing, your shareholding will be
diluted thanks to the extra shares issued.
3 Sell your rights to other investors
In some cases, rights are not transferable. These are known as "nonrenounceable rights." But in most cases, your rights allow you to decide
whether you want to take up the option to buy the shares or sell your
rights to other investors or to the underwriter. Rights that can be traded
are called "renounceable rights," and after they have been traded, the
rights are known as "nil-paid rights."
To determine how much you may gain by selling the rights, you need to
estimate a value on the nil-paid rights ahead of time. Again, a precise
number is difficult, but you can get a rough value by taking the value of
ex-rights price and subtracting the rights issue price. So, at the adjusted
ex-rights price of $4.92 less $3, your nil-paid rights are worth $1.92 per
share. Selling these rights will create a capital gain for you.
Be Warned
It is awfully easy for investors to get tempted by the prospect of buying
discounted shares with a rights issue. But it is not always a certainty that
you are getting a bargain. But besides knowing the ex-rights share price,
you need to know the purpose of the additional funding before accepting
or rejecting a rights issue. Be sure to look for a compelling explanation of
why the rights issue and share dilution are needed as part of the
recovery plan. Sure, a rights issue can offer a quick fix for a troubled
balance sheet, but that doesn't necessarily mean management will
address the underlying problems that weakened the balance sheet in the
first place. Shareholders should be cautious. (Learn about other
investments to be cautious of in 10 Questionable
Investments and Dangerous Advice For Beginner Investors.)
5.5.6 Dilution
Dilutive stock is any security that dilutes the ownership percentage of
current shareholders - that is, any security that does not have some sort
of embedded anti-dilution provision. The reason why dilutive stock has
such negative connotations is quite simple: a company's shareholders
are its owners, and anything that decreases an investor's level of
ownership also decreases the value of the investor's holdings.
Ownership can be diluted in a number of different ways:
1. Secondary Offerings: For example, if a company had a total of 100
shares on the market and its management decided to issue another 100
stocks, then the owners of the first 100 stocks would face a
50% dilution factor. For a real life example of this scenario, consider
the secondary offering made by Google Inc. in the fall of 2005. The
company decided to issue more than 14 million shares of common stock
to raise money for "general corporate purposes," and it diluted thencurrent holdings.
2. Convertible Debt/Convertible Equity: When a company
issues convertible debt, it means that debtholders who choose to convert
their securities into shares will dilute current shareholders' ownership
when they convert. In many cases, convertible debt converts to common
stock at some sort of preferential conversion ratio. For example, each
$1,000 of convertible debt may convert to 100 shares of common stock,
thus decreasing current stockholders' total ownership.
Convertible equity is often called convertible preferred stock. These
kinds of shares also usually convert to common stock on some kind of
preferential ratio - for example, each convertible preferred stock may
convert to 10 shares of common stock, thus also diluting ownership
percentages of the common stockholders.
3. Warrants, Rights, Options and other claims on security: When
exercised, these derivatives are exchanged for shares of common stock
that are issued by the company to its holders. Information about dilutive
stock, options, warrants, rights, and convertible debt and equity can be
found in a company's annual filings. (For more information on
shareholder dilution and its costs, check out our Accounting And Valuing
ESOs Feature and A New Approach To Equity Compensation.) Warnings
Signs of Dilution
Because dilution can reduce the value of an individual investment, retail
investors should be aware of warnings signs that may precede a
potential share dilution. Basically, any emerging capital needs or growth
opportunities may precipitate share dilution.
There are many scenarios in which a firm could require an equity capital
infusion; funds may simply be needed to cover expenses. In a scenario
where a firm does not have the capital to service current liabilities and
the firm is hindered from issuing new debt due to covenants of existing
debt, an equity offering of new shares may be necessary.
If-Converted Method
The if-converted method is used to calculate diluted EPS if a company
has potentially dilutive preferred stock. Preferred dividend payments are
subtracted from net income in the numerator, and the number of new
common shares that would be issued if converted are added to the
weighted average number of shares outstanding in the denominator.
exercise price of $30 and the average market price of the stock is $50,
diluted EPS would equal $19.84 ([$10,000,000/[500,000 + 10,000 6,000]).
Note the 6,000 shares is the number of shares that the firm could
repurchase after receiving $300,000 for the exercise of the options
([10,000 options x $30 exercise price] / $50 average market price). The
share count would increase by 4,000 (10,000 - 6,000) because after the
6,000 shares are repurchased there is still a 4,000 share shortfall that
needs to be created.
Securities can be anti-dilutive. This means that, if converted, EPS would
be higher than the company's basic EPS. Anti-dilutive securities do not
affect shareholder value and are not factored into the diluted EPS
calculation.
Using Financial Statements to Assess the Impact of Dilution
It is relatively simple to analyze dilutive EPS as it is presented in financial
statements. Companies report key line items that can be used to analyze
the effects of dilution: basic EPS, diluted EPS, weighted average shares
outstanding and diluted weighted average shares. Many companies also
report basic EPS excluding extraordinary items, basic EPS including
extraordinary items, dilution adjustment, diluted EPS excluding
extraordinary items and diluted EPS including extraordinary items.
2. Negotiated Sales
A negotiated sale is the process whereby a bond issuer negotiates with
the investment bank with respect to the pricing of underwriting services.
3. Private Placements
A private placement is the process whereby an investment bank "places"
the new bond issue with a small number of buyers, typically large
institutions. Private placements are not registered with the SEC for public
sale.
Three Types of Coupons
A bond is essentially an IOU or promise to pay a predetermined annual or
semiannual interest payment and to pay back the principal (face value)
when the bond matures. When a company issues a bond with coupon
payments that are equal to the current market rate, the bond is said to
be issued at par. From an accounting point of view this means that if a
company issues a $1M bond at par the company will in return have
raised $1M in capital for its efforts.
When bonds are issued with coupon payments that are not equal to the
current market interest rate they are considered to be issued at a
"premium" or "discount" to or from par. Companies that are very active
in bond issuance issue bonds at par more frequently than those
companies that are not as active.
Example of bonds issued at a discount:
Company ABC issues a bond that will pay 9% a year for five years and
similar bonds trading are currently paying 10%.While there are multiple
market related factors that determine the issuing price (supply and
demand, credit ratings, analysts' opinions, state of the economy and
yield curve characteristics), in this simplistic example the bonds would
most like be issued at a discount to its par value to compensate for the
lower coupon payments. The company will ultimately get less money for
its bond than the stated par value, and the bonds are said to sell at a
discount.
Example of bonds issued at a premium:
Company ABC issues a bond that will pay 10% a year for five years and
similar bonds are currently paying 9%. The only way the company will
sell this bond to investors is if the company sells the bond at a premium
to its par value (for more money) to compensate the company for the
paying a higher coupon. The company will ultimately get more money for
its bond than the stated par value, and the bond is said to sell at a
premium.
From an accounting standpoint, a company that sells a bond at a
discount (or premium) will record on a cash basis a smaller interest
payment but in reality will have a higher interest expense because it
received fewer dollars for its bond. In accordance with the matching
principle, premium and discounts must be amortized over the life of the
bond. U.S. GAAP allows companies to amortize premiums or discounts by
using a straight-line amortization or the effective interest rate method.
Balance sheet - The balance sheet will include at all times a longterm liability equal to the face value of the bond until its maturity
or redemption.
Balance sheet - The balance sheet will include at all times a longterm liability equal to its carrying value. At initiation the carrying
value will be equal to the face value of the bond plus the total
unamortized premium. Every year the bond value recorded on the
balance sheet will be reduced until the bond comes to maturity or
is redeemed, and the bond value displayed on the balance
eventually reaches the bond's original face value.
the specified accounting period. Since this is a bond that was sold
at a premium, it is paying out a larger coupon than is currently
stated as an interest expense on the income statement. As a
result, CFO will be understated relative to that of a company that
sold its bond at par. The amortized portion of the bond premium
will be included in cash flow from financing. This will cause the
reported cash flow from financing to be overstated relative to that
of a company that sold its bond at par.
Bonds Issued at a Discount - Effect On:
Balance sheet - The balance sheet will include at all times a longterm liability equal to its carrying value. At initiation the carrying
value will be equal to the face value of the bond minus the total
unamortized discount. Every year the bond value recorded on the
balance sheet will be increased until the bond comes to maturity
and the bond value displayed on the balance is equal to the bond's
face value.
Computation
Company ABC issues a $1M bond that will pay a 10% semiannual
(coupon) for three years; the company will generate $500,000 EBITDA
over the next three years. Contract the effect if market rate at the time
of issuance was 10%, 11% and 9%. (Straight-line depreciation is used for
premiums and discounts). Taxes are not considered.
payment for private business owners, as reporting a salary will increase the
owner's taxable income, while receiving dividends will lighten the tax-burden.
What's important to remember is that estimating future revenue is only a best guess
estimate and one estimate may differ wildly from another. That is why using public
company financials and future estimates is a good way to augment your estimates,
making sure that the target's sales growth is not completely out of line with its
comparable peers. Once revenues have been estimated, free cash flow can be
extrapolated from expected changes in operating costs, taxes and working capital.
The next step would be to estimate the target firm's unlevered beta by gathering
industry average betas, tax rates and debt/equity ratios.
Next, estimate the target's debt ratio and tax rate in order to translate the industry
averages to a fair estimate for the private firm. Once an unlevered beta estimate is
made, the cost of equity can be estimated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model
(CAPM). After calculating the cost of equity, cost of debt will often be determined by
examining the target's bank lines for rates at which the company can borrow. (To
learn more, see The Capital Asset Pricing Model: An Overview.)
Determining the target's capital structure can be difficult, but again we will defer to
the public markets to find industry norms. It is likely that the costs of equity and debt
for the private firm will be higher than its publicly-traded counterparts, so slight
adjustments may be required to the average corporate structure to account for
these inflated costs. Also, the ownership structure of the target must be taken into
account as well as that will help estimate management's preferred capital structure
as well. Often a premium is added to the cost of equity for a private firm to
compensate for the lack of liquidity in holding an equity position in the firm.
Lastly, once an appropriate capital structure has been estimated, calculate
the weighted average cost of capital (WAAC). Once the discount rate has been
established it's only a matter of discounting the target's estimated cash flows to
come up with a fair value estimate for the private firm. The illiquidity premium, as
previously mentioned, can also be added to the discount rate to compensate
potential investors for the private investment.
The Bottom Line
As you can see, the valuation of a private firm is full of assumptions, best guess
estimates and industry averages. With the lack of transparency involved in
privately-held companies it is a difficult task to place a reliable value on such
businesses. Several other methods exist that are used in the private equity industry
and by corporate finance advisory teams to help put a value on private companies.
With limited transparency and the difficulty in predicting what the future will bring to
any firm, private company valuation is still considered more art than science. (To
learn more, see For Companies, Staying Private A Matter Of Choices)