TreePlan Example 179 Mac 2011

0.
5
Awarded contract
2
250000
90000
Prepare proposal
-50000
20000
0.5
Not awarded contract
20000
Do not prepare proposal

0
-50000
Use mechanical method

80000
-120000
80000
0.5
Electronic success
150000
Try electronic method
-50000
0.5
Electronic failure
90000
150000
30000
-120000
30000
0.7
Magnetic success
120000
Try magnetic method
-80000
0.3
Magnetic failure
84000
120000
0
-120000
-50000
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Value
Prob
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Pred
0
0
0
1
1
3
3
3
6
6
7
7
Kind
D
E
T
D
T
T
E
E
T
T
T
T
NS
S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
S2
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
0
0
0
S3
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S4
S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Col
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22
Mark
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0.5
Awarded contract
$250,000
$90,000
Prepare proposal
-$50,000
$20,000
0.5
$20,000
$0

$0
$0
-$50,000

-$120,000
$80,000
0.5
Electronic success
$0
-$50,000
0.5
Electronic failure
$90,000
-$120,000
$150,000
$30,000
0.7
Magnetic success
Try magnetic method
$0
-$80,000
0.3
Magnetic failure
$84,000
-$120,000
$120,000
$0
$80,000
$150,000
$30,000
$120,000
$0
-$50,000
$0
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Value
0
Prob
Pred
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
3
3
3
6
6
7
7
Kind
D
E
T
D
T
T
E
E
T
T
T
T
NS
S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
S2
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
0
0
0
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0
S3
S4
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Col
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22
Mark
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0.5
Awarded contract
2
$250,000
Prepare proposal
-$50,000
0.5
$0

$0

-$120,000
0.5
Electronic success
$0
-$50,000
0.5
Electronic failure
1
$0
0.7
Magnetic success
Try magnetic method
$0
-$80,000
0.3
Magnetic failure
1
$0
$80,000
$150,000

$30,000
-$120,000
$120,000

$0
-$120,000
-$50,000
$0
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Value
Prob
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Pred
0
0
0
1
1
3
3
3
6
6
7
7
9
11
Kind
D
E
T
D
T
T
E
E
T
D
T
D
T
T
NS
S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
1
0
1
0
0
S2
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
12
0
13
0
0
S3
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S4
S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Col
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22
12
22
Mark
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17
21
21
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0.5
Awarded contract
1
$250,000
$80,000
0.41335
Prepare proposal
-$50,000
$1,337
0.00887
0.5
$1,337
0.00887
$0

$0
$0
0.00000
-$50,000
-0.39561

$80,000
-$120,000
$80,000
0.41335
0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
$0
-$50,000
0.5
Electronic failure
$78,307
0.40669
$150,000
0.63212
$30,000
-$120,000
$30,000
0.18127
0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
Try magnetic method
$0
-$80,000
0.3
Magnetic failure
$73,035
0.38547
$120,000
0.55067
$0
-$120,000
$0
0.00000
-$50,000
$0
Label in cell on left is the

defined name of cell on right.
RT
$150,000
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Value
Prob
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Pred
0
0
0
1
1
3
3
3
6
6
7
7
Kind
D
E
T
D
T
T
E
E
T
T
T
T
NS
S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
S2
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
0
0
0
S3
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S4
S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Col
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22
Mark
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0.5
Awarded contract
1
$250,000
$80,000
0.78714
Prepare proposal
-$50,000
$1,337
0.39357
0.5
$1,337
0.39357
$0

$0
$0
0.38494
-$50,000
0.00000

$80,000
-$120,000
$80,000
0.78714
0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
$0
-$50,000
0.5
Electronic failure
$78,307
0.78066
$150,000
1.00000
$30,000
-$120,000
$30,000
0.56131
0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
Try magnetic method
$0
-$80,000
0.3
Magnetic failure
$73,035
0.76000
$120,000
0.92075
$0
-$120,000
$0
0.38494
-$50,000
$0
Label in cell on left is the

defined name of cell on right.
RT
$150,000
Low
High
-$50,000
$150,000
A
B
1.35795235
0.97301538
U(Low) = 0.0
U(High) = 1.0
Risk Utility
0.00000
0.04452
0.08758
0.12923
0.16951
0.20847
0.24616
0.28260
0.31786
0.35196
0.38494
0.41684
0.44769
0.47753
0.50640
0.53431
0.56131
0.58743
0.61269
0.63712
0.66076
0.68361
0.70572
0.72710
0.74779
0.76779
0.78714
0.80585
0.82395
0.84146
0.85839
0.87477
0.89061
0.90593
0.92075
0.93508
0.94894
0.96235
0.97532
0.98787
1.00000
1.00000
0.90000
0.80000
Utility or Expected Utility, U(x)
Value
-$50,000
-$45,000
-$40,000
-$35,000
-$30,000
-$25,000
-$20,000
-$15,000
-$10,000
-$5,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
$70,000
$75,000
$80,000
$85,000
$90,000
$95,000
$100,000
$105,000
$110,000
$115,000
$120,000
$125,000
$130,000
$135,000
$140,000
$145,000
$150,000
0.70000
0.60000
0.50000
0.40000
0.30000
0.20000
0.10000
0.00000
-$50,000
$0
DriveTek Risk Utility Function
$0
$50,000
Value or Certain Equivalent, x
$100,000
$150,000
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Value
0
Prob
Pred
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
3
3
3
6
6
7
7
Kind
D
E
T
D
T
T
E
E
T
T
T
T
NS
S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
S2
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
0
0
0
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0
S3
S4
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Col
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22
Mark
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

TreePlan Example 179 Mac 2011

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TreePlan Example 179 Mac 2011

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0.

Do not prepare proposal

Use mechanical method

Try electronic method

Do not prepare proposal

Use mechanical method

Try electronic method

Do not prepare proposal

Use mechanical method

Try magnetic method

Use mechanical method

Use mechanical method

Do not prepare proposal

Use mechanical method

Try electronic method

Label in cell on left is the

Do not prepare proposal

Use mechanical method

Try electronic method

Label in cell on left is the

DriveTek Risk Utility Function

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