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Engineering Department, Islamic University of Gaza, P.O. Box 108, Gaza, Palestine, Israel
b
Utah Water Research Laboratory, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322-8200, USA
c
Civil and Environmental Engineering, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322-8200, USA
Received 2 September 2003; revised 6 June 2005; accepted 27 June 2005
Abstract
Groundwater is the only source of fresh water in the Gaza Strip. However, it is severely polluted and requires immediate
effort to improve its quality and increase its usable quantity. Intensive exploitation of groundwater in the Gaza Strip over the
past 40 years has disturbed the natural equilibrium between fresh and saline water, and has resulted in increased salinity in most
areas. Salinization in the coastal aquifer may be caused by a single process or a combination of different processes, including
seawater intrusion, upconing of brines from the deeper parts of the aquifer, flow of saline water from the adjacent Eocene
aquifer, return flow from irrigation water, and leakage of wastewater. Each of these sources is characterized by a distinguishable
chemistry and well known isotopic ratios. In this paper Na/Cl, SO4/Cl, Br/Cl, Ca/(HCO3CSO4), and Mg/Ca ionic ratios were
used to distinguish different salinization sources. d11B and 87Sr/86Sr isotopic composition were also included in the model to
study their importance in this monitoring task. The task of monitoring and the associated decision making process are
characterized by a high degree of uncertainty with respect to input data and accuracy of models. For this reason, probabilistic
expert systems, and more specifically, Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) are used to identify salinization origins. The BBN
model incorporates the theoretical background of salinity sources, area-specific monitoring data that are characteristically
incomplete in their coverage, expert judgment, and common sense reasoning to produce a geographic distribution for the most
probable sources of salinization. The model is also designed to show areas where additional data on chemical and isotopic
parameters are needed.
q 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V.
Keywords: Salinization; Ionic ratios; Isotopes; Bayesian networks; Monitoring
1. Hydro-geological setting
* Corresponding author. Fax: C1 435 797 3663.
E-mail addresses: sghabyen@iugaza.edu (S.M.S. Ghabayen),
mac.mckee@usu.edu
(M.
McKee),
mkem@cc.usu.edu
(M. Kemblowski).
1
Fax: C972 2 825106.
2
Fax: C1 435 797 3663.
361
2. Available data
The modeling and analysis reported here are based
upon the results of a recent (2000) water quality
survey of 101 municipal and agricultural wells. Those
wells were sampled and tested for calcium (CaCC),
magnesium (MgCC), sodium (NaC), potassium
(KC), bromine (BrK), chloride (ClK), nitrate (NOK
3 ),
K
bicarbonate (HCOK
),
and
sulphate
(SO
).
Fig.
1
3
4
shows the locations of the sampled wells. The analysis
362
Fig. 2. Generalized geological cross section of the coastal aquifer (M&E, 2000).
pai ; b1 ; .; bn
pb1 ; .; bn
(1)
where
p(ai) is called the marginal, prior, or
initial probability that variable AZai
p(ai/b1.bn) is the posterior or conditional probability that AZai given that B1Zb1,
.,BnZbn.
p(b1,.,bn/ai) is referred to as the likelihood that
parent B1Zb1 causes AZai
.
The uncertainties in the parent nodes, represented
by marginal probability distributions, produce uncertainties in the child nodes that are based on
conditional probabilities and physical cause-andeffect relationships. Fig. 3a shows a simple BBN
example. Seawater intrusion, Eocene rocks, and deep
363
4. Model structure
364
sulphate (SOC2
4 ) content relative to drinking water
standards.
5.1.3. Expert judgement
Expert judgements were used to specify the
prior/marginal probabilities was based on the
following: (1) the authors experience in the study
area; (2) additional consultation of groundwater
experts; (3) interpretation of the above information;
(4) information about land use practices, geology of the
study area, and groundwater regional flow directions.
Table 1 shows the assigned prior/marginal probabilities in the parent nodes based on the above
information. In areas where information is not
sufficient, 0.5 probability was used to describe the
existance or non-existance of any particular salinization source. Zone 3 is divided into two subzones to
account for the soil type that overlays the aquifer and
the water table depth. For example, the top soil in
most of the eastern areas of the Gaza Strip is
characterized by red silty-clayey sandstones and
fluvial clays (M&E, 2000). The water table in these
areas could reach 75 m. In the sand dunes near the
seashore the water table is very shallow and land use
practices are more likely to play a major role in
salinization.
5.2. Conditional probabilities in the child nodes
Information from expert opinion and data from
journal articles were used to define relationships
365
Table 1
Prior/marginal probability distribution in the parent nodes
Location
State
Seawater intrusion
Flow from
Eocene rocks
Deep brines
upconing
Wastewater
seepages
Agriculture
return flows
Zone 1
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
0.75
0.25
50
50
50
0.65
0.35
0.65
0.35
0.65
50
50
0.73
0.27
50
0.80
0.20
0.80
0.20
0.80
0.70
0.30
0.70
0.30
0.70
No
Yes
50
50
0.35
0.65
50
50
0.20
0.55
0.30
0.55
No
50
0.35
50
0.45
0.45
Zone 2
Zone 3a (shallow water
table (1030 m))
Zone 3 (deep water
table (3070 m))
a
Zone 3 covers the whole study area so when different zones overlap the higher figures are used.
366
Table 2
The chemical and isotopic composition of potential salinization sources
Seawater intrusion
Wastewater seepages
Na/Cl
0.861a
0.05a,d
0.0015a,d
0.0008
K/Cl
Ca/(HCO3CSO4)
Mg/Ca
0.019
0.35!1a
O5c
5.2e
K5%d
39-60f,d
w!0.8c
!0.86a,e
0.50.8d
w0.05c,d
0.00140.0016c,d
0.002c
0.00150.0018d
!0.019d
O1c,e,a,d
O1a
2.5e
K2.954.73%d
24.849.9d
1.1d
SO4/Cl
Br/Cl
B/Cl
11.8b
1.23d
w0.86d
0.050.12d
0.00140.0015d
0.0018d
0.0087d
d18O
d11B
87
0.70923d
Cl
Up to 22,400e
Sr/86Sr
a
b
c
d
e
f
g
0.50.7a
3848.5
0.7081020.
708132d
0.09d
0.0005d
0.0020.005d
High-4%d
010d
5.312.9g
0.7082750.
708532d
Agriculture return
flows
[ 0.05f
0.02f
0.005f
19f
0.7082f
Up to 60,000e
367
368
369
Table 3
Summary of the BBN analysis of 101 wells
Location
Confidence
level
Percentage of wells having this salinization source with the specified probabilities
Seawater
intrusion
Zone 1 22
wells
Zone 2 27
wells
Rest of the
area
Total 101
wells
Eocene rocks
Deep brines
upconing
Wastewater
seepages
Agriculture
return flows
Need more
information
O90%
59
32
86
9a
O80%
O90%
59
48
14
7
41
19
91
77
14
7
5
5
O80%
O90%
56
7
15
5
48
2
85
41
15
10
11
53
O80%
O90%
38
26
10
10
25
13
44
57
20
15
22
36
O80%
47
13
33
62
17
14
The sum of the row probabilities may be more than 100% which indicates that in some of the wells two or more sources of salinization are
dominant.
370
Fig. 6. Geographic distribution of salinization sources with probability 0.9 or greater. (a) Seawater intrusion; (b) Eocene rocks; (c) deep brines;
(d) wastewater leakage; (e) irrigation return flow; (f) need more information.
371
372
Variance
reduction (%)
Na/Cl
Seawater intrusion
Eocene rocks
Deep brines upconing
Wastewater seepages
Agriculture return flows
Seawater intrusion
Eocene rocks
Deep brines upconing
Wastewater seepages
Agriculture return flows
Seawater intrusion
2.55
7.03
13.0
5.90
0
6.81
3.11
6.81
2.67
2.67
4.08
Eocene rocks
Deep brines upconing
Wastewater seepages
Agriculture return flows
Seawater intrusion
Eocene rocks
Deep brines upconing
Wastewater seepages
Agriculture return flows
Seawater intrusion
Eocene rocks
Deep brines upcoming
Wastewater seepages
Agriculture return flows
0
32.8
0
0
0.68
0.77
0.69
1.68
18.1
29.4
1.49
3.25
0
0
SO4/Cl
Ca/(HCO3C
SO4)
Br/Cl
Mg/Ca
7. Conclusions
Salinization in the Gaza coastal aquifer may be
caused by a single process or a combination of
different processes, including seawater intrusion,
upconing of brines from the deeper parts of the
aquifer, flow of saline water from the adjacent Eocene
aquifer, return flow from irrigation water, and leakage
from the wastewater.
A Bayesian belief network was designed to utilize
Na/Cl, SO4/Cl, Br/Cl, Ca/(HCO3CSO4), and Mg/Ca
ionic ratios for understanding different salinization
processes and sources of saline pollution. Although
we have no information about d11B and 87Sr/86Sr
isotopic composition they were included in the
network to study their importance in this monitoring
task.
Salinization due to wastewater leakages is found to
occur with a very high probability in the areas north
and south of Gaza, the Deir el Balah area, the Khan
Younis area, and the Rafah area. These areas are
characterized by improper disposal and treatment
methods of domestic wastewater.
In the coastal zone, areas with a high probability of
seawater intrusion were identified. Pollution from
wastewater leakage also exists with a very high
probability in the same locations. This tells us that
seawater intrusion is not the only key issue in the
coastal zone, and water managers should pay attention
to other sources of pollution that could be more
harmful. Some sampling for d11B and 87Sr/86Sr
isotopic ratios is necessary in this zone to understand
the contribution of each of these sources to the
problem.
Although there are intensive agricultural activities in the Gaza Strip, the results of the model do
not indicate salinization due to irrigation return
flow. Limited availability of data in the areas of
intensive irrigation activities could be the main
reason for this. In these areas, additional data about
Br/Cl, d11B and 87Sr/86Sr ionic and isotopic ratios is
necessary.
In Zone 2 where deep brines are expected to be the
most likely sources of salinization, only a few
locations showed agreement with the expectations.
The available data represent the shallow part of the
aquifer and deep sampling is necessary to understand
the extent of this salinization source.
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to acknowledge the Utah Water
Research Laboratory and the Utah Center for Water
Resources Research, Utah State University, Logan,
Utah, which provided support for the research
reported in this manuscript. The authors also wish to
acknowledge the Palestinian Water Authority for
providing the necessary data, and Professor Jagath
Kaluarachchi of the Civil Engineering Department at
Utah State University for his valuable contribution.
References
Castillo, E., Gutierrez, J.M., Hadi, A.S., 1997. Expert Systems and
Probabilistic Network Models. Springer-Verlag, Berlin
(Chap. 3).
Greitzer, Y., J. Dan. 1967. The effect of soil landscape and
quaternary geology on the distribution of saline and fresh water
aquifers in the Coastal Plain of Israel. Tahal Ltd., Water
Planning for Israel, June, 1967.
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