Chng 3: Phn tch

phng n u t theo
gi tr tng ng

B mn Ti Chnh Khoa Qun l Cng nghip

i hc Bch Khoa - TPHCM

Ni dung

1. Phng php gi tr hin ti

2. Phng php gi tr tng lai
3. Phng php gi tr hng nm
4. Tm tt

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

1. PP gi tr hin ti NPV hoc PW

Quy i ton b thu nhp v chi ph ca d n thnh mt gi
tr tng ng ti nm 0, bng cch s dng sut chit
khu i% cho trc
B1: Xc nh thi k phn tch (TKPT)
B2: c lng dng tin vo / ra ca phng n
B3: c lng gi tr theo thi gian ca dng tin (i%)
B4: Tnh PW. TH so snh
nhiu PA loi tr nhau, chn
PA no c PW max

B4: Tnh PW. TH cc PA c lp

nhau, chn lm PA nu PW 0
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

1. PP gi tr hin ti NPV hoc PW

Thi k phn tch (TKPT): l khong thi gian xem
xt tt c dng tin t xy ra.
Tui th kinh t (TTKT): l thi gian hot ng cn
c ch v mt kinh t ca PA.
Gi tr cn li v gi tr thay mi:
-TKPT > TTKT gi tr thay mi (CF ra)
-TKPT < TTKT gi tr cn li (CF vo)

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

1. PP gi tr hin ti NPV hoc PW

Mc li sut i%: c chn lm sao phn nh
chi ph s dng vn hoc sut sinh li ti thiu chp
nhn c (MARR)
+ d vn l ca mnh (cn xt n c hi b qua
khi em vn t c u t vo d n)
+ hay vn i vay ca ngi khc (cn yu cu mt
sut sinh li t nht phi li sut vay)

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

1. PP gi tr hin ti NPV hoc PW

i = 15%

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

1. PP gi tr hin ti NPV hoc PW

Cng thc tng qut:

PW rng = PW thu - PW chi

PW (i ) CF 0

CF 1
CF 2
CFn

...
(1 i )1 (1 i ) 2
(1 i ) n

PW 0: d n ng gi (Dng vn u t cho d n ny
c li hn hoc t ra l bng u t vo mt c hi khc
vi li sut l i%)
PW<0: d n khng ng gi (Dng vn u t cho d
n ny khng c li bng u t vo mt c hi khc vi
li sut l i%)
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d an

1. PP gi tr hin ti NPV hoc PW

VD2: So snh 2 PA loi tr nhau (TKPT bng nhau)
(1)my
MuaPhoto
my photoThu
(2)Thu
Mua
mymy
ThuThu
nhpnhp
hnghng
nm (tr
VND)
nm
(triu)
160160
160 160
uChi
t ban
0
phu
u t ban u (triu)
30 30
0
Chi Chi
ph hng
nmng hng nm (tr) 50 50
ph hot
100 100
Gi tr cn li
5
0
Gi tr cn li (triu)
2
0
TKPT (nm)
10
10
Tui th
(nm)
10
10
Sut sinh li yu cu ti thiu i%
20%

Ta nn mua my photocopy hay thu my ?

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d an

1. PP gi tr hin ti NPV hoc PW

Cch 1: Tnh PW cho tng PA=> chn PA c PW max
(1) Nu mua my Photocopy:
PW thu = 160 (P/A, 20%, 10) + 5 (P/F, 20%, 10)
PW chi = 30 + 50 (P/A, 20%, 10)
PW rng = PW thu PW chi = 672 240 = 432 (triu ng)
(2) Nu thu my Photocopy:
PW thu = 160 (P/A, 20%, 10)
PW chi = 100 (P/A, 20%, 10)
PW rng = PW thu PW chi = 671 419 = 252 (triu ng)
Chn mua my Photocopy (432 > 252)
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

1. PP gi tr hin ti NPV hoc PW

Cch 2: V 2 phng n c thu nhp hng nm l
bng nhau nn ch cn tnh gi tr hin ti ca chi ph
(PWC) cho tng PA=> chn PA c PWC min
(1) Nu mua my Photocopy:
PWC = 30 + 50 (P/A, 20%, 10) - 5 (P/F, 20%, 10)
= 239 (triu ng)
(2) Nu thu my Photocopy:
PWC = 100 (P/A, 20%, 10) = 419 (triu ng)
Chn mua my Photocopy (239 < 419)

10

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d an

1. PP gi tr hin ti NPV hoc PW

VD3: So snh 2 PA loi tr nhau (TKPT khng bng nhau)
= > Cn tm bi s chung nh nht ca TKPT ca 2 PA
=> Gi nh PA lp li nh c theo chu k phn tch
(1) Mua my mi

(2)Mua my c

160
30
50
5
10

150
10
80
1
5

Thu nhp hng nm (tr VND)

u t ban u
Chi ph hng nm
Gi tr cn li
TKPT (nm)

20%

Sut sinh li yu cu ti thiu i%

Thi k phn tch l BSCNN: 10 nm

Sau 5 nm, my c phi thay mi 1 ln.
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

1. PP gi tr hin ti NPV hoc PW

VD3: So snh 2 PA loi tr nhau (TKPT khng bng nhau)
160

(1)

5
0

30

10

50
150

150

(2)
0

10

80

80 10

12

10

80

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d an

1. PP gi tr hin ti NPV hoc PW

VD3: So snh 2 PA loi tr nhau (TKPT khng bng nhau)
(1) Nu mua my mi:
PW = - 30 + (160 50) (P/A, 20%, 10) + 5 (P/F, 20%, 10)
= 432 (triu ng)
(2) Nu mua my c:
PW = - 10 + (150 80) (P/A, 20%, 10) + (1-10)(P/F, 20%,
5) + 1 (P/F, 20%, 10) = 280 (triu ng)
Chn mua my mi (432 > 280)

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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d an

2. PP gi tr tng lai FW
Gi tr tng ng ca tt c khon thu, chi ca d n
c quy v mt mc no trong tng lai (thng
thng l cui thi k phn tch)
Quy tc chn: tng t phng php PW
+TH chn cc PA c lp: ng gi nu FW >= 0.
+TH chn cc PA loi tr: PA ng gi nht nu FWmax.
Nu 2 PA c TKPT khc nhau, cn tm BSCNN
+Khi cc PA c thu nhp ging nhau: chn PA ng gi
nht nu FWC min
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. PP gi tr tng lai FW

i = 15%

FW(15%)inflow $24,400( F / P,15%,2) $27,340( F / P,15%,1)

$55,760( F / P,15%,0)
$119,470
FW (15%)outflow $75,000( F / P,15%,3)
$114,066
FW (15%) $119,470 $114,066
$5,404 0, Accept
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

3. PP gi tr u hng nm AW
L gi tr A ca mt chui dng tin t phn b u hng
nm trong sut TKPT.
Quy tc chn: tng t phng php PW & FW
+TH chn cc PA c lp: PA ng gi nu AW >= 0
+TH chn cc PA loi tr: chn PA ng gi nht nu
AW max. Nu 2 PA c TKPT khc nhau, th c th so
snh trc tip AW ca tng PA m khng cn tm
BSCNN
+ Khi cc PA c thu nhp ging nhau: chn PA ng
gi nht nu AWC min
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

3. PP gi tr u hng nm AW
i = 15%
$9.0

PW(15%) = $6.946

$12

$10

$5
0

$8

1
2

$3.5
$6.946

$15
A = $1.835

AW(15%) = $6.946(A/P, 15%, 6)

= $1.835
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

3. PP gi tr u hng nm AW
S dng PW hoc FW tnh AW
AW = PW(A/P,i%,n) = FW(A/F,i%,n)
Phng php gi tr hng nm AW cho kt qu quyt
nh chn d n tng t phng php PW v FW
AW l tng ca hai thnh phn:
Chi ph u hng nm hon tr li vn u t ban
u - Capital recovery (CR)
Cc khon thu chi u hng nm - A
AW = CR + A
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

3. PP gi tr u hng nm AW
+ C 2 giao dch xy ra khi mua
mt ti sn:
(1) B ra chi ph u t ban u P
initial investment
(2) Thu hi gi tr cn li S
salvage value
+ T P v S c th tnh c CR.
+ CR bao gm chi ph khu hao
v chi ph s dng vn.

19

S
0
N

P
0 1

3 .. N

CR(i) hng nm

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

3. PP gi tr u hng nm AW
Cc cng thc tnh CR:
CR l gi tr tng ng hng nm ca vn u t ban
u P v gi tr cn li: SV.
CR = P(A/P, i%, N) SV(A/F, i%, N)

Hoc CR = [P SV(P/F, i%, N)]*(A/P, i%, N)

Hoc
CR = (P SV) (A/F, i%, N) + P(i%)
Hoc
CR = (P SV) (A/P, i%, N) +SV(i%)
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

3. PP gi tr u hng nm AW
VD5: Mt ti sn u t c gi tr 10 triu s dng trong
5 nm th c tnh gi tr cn li SV l 2 triu, i = 8%
nm. Tnh gi tr CR ca phng n.
CR = 10tr(A/P, 8%, 5) 2tr (A/F, 8%, 5)
= 10 tr(0,2505) - 2 tr(0,1705)
= 2.164.000
CR = [10tr 2tr (P/F, 8%, 5)] (A/P, 8%, 5)
= [10tr 2tr(0,6806) ] (0,2505)
= 2.164.000
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

3. PP gi tr u hng nm AW
Cho: I = $20,000, S =
$4,000, N = 5 nm, i =
10%
Hi: liu khon thu nhp
hng nm $4,400
b p chi ph vn
khng?

$4,000
$4,400
0
1

$20,000
0
1

Gii:
CR(10%) = $4,620.76
Kt lun: D n cn
thm mt khon thu
nhp hng nm l
$220.76.

$4,000

$20,000

$4,400
0
1

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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

4. Tm tt
Phng php gi tr hin ti: l ton b thu nhp v chi
ph ca phng n trong sut thi k phn tch c quy
i thnh mt gi tr tng ng hin ti.
Phng php gi tr tng lai: l ton b thu nhp v
chi ph ca phng n trong sut thi k phn tch c
quy i thnh mt gi tr tng ng tng lai.
Phng php gi tr hng nm: l gi tr A ca mt
chui dng tin t phn b u trong sut TKPT.
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

4. Tm tt

Lm bi tp 3.1, 3.2, 3.4, 3.6 v 3.8

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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n