CHNG 4

PHN TCH PHNG N

THEO SUT SINH LI NI
TI (IRR)

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

Ni dung
4.1 nh ngha sut sinh li ni ti (IRR)
4.2 Phng php tnh IRR
4.3 Nguyn tc chn d n u t theo IRR
4.4 So snh cc phng n theo IRR
4.5 Bn cht ca IRR
4.6 So snh phng php PW v IRR
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

n li chng 3
V d: tnh gi tr hin ti rng ca d n vi
dng tin nh sau, bit i = 10%
v: triu VND
0

-100

28

28

28

28

48

Dng tin

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

PW (i) CF 0

-100

28

28

CF 1
CF 2
CFn

...
(1 i )1 (1 i ) 2
(1 i ) n
3
4
5

28

28

48

25.45
23.14
21.04
19.12
29.08

PW(10%) = 18.56
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

Nu cho gi tr i thay i, th PW(i) = ???

PW(i)

i%
10%

PW (i)
18.56

15%
3.8
16.5%
0
20% -8.23

25.00
20.00
15.00
IRR internal
rate of return

10.00
5.00
0.00
(5.00)

10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21%

(10.00)
(15.00)

i%

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

4.1 nh ngha
Sut sinh li ni ti internal rate of return IRR
L mc li sut m nu dng lm h s chit khu
quy i dng tin t ca d n th gi tr hin ti rng
bng 0 (gi tr hin ti ca thu nhp PWR s cn bng
vi gi tr hin ti ca chi ph PWC)
PWR = PWC hay PWR - PWC = 0

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

IRR c tnh nh th no ?

PW (i ) CF 0

PW = 0

CF 1
CF 2
CFn

...
(1 i )1 (1 i ) 2
(1 i ) n

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

Tm IRR

4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

Cc cch tnh IRR :
Tnh trc tip (ch p dng cho DA c TKPT 2
nm hoc ch xut hin dng tin trong 2 thi
on)
Phng php ni suy
Excel

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

Tnh trc tip:
N

D n A

-$1,000

+ $1,500

p dng cng thc:

PWR = PWC hay PWR - PWC = 0
PW(i*) = -1000 + 1500(P/F,i*,4)= 0
- 1000 + 1500 / (1+i*)4 = 0
i* = 10.67%

Tm IRR?

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

Tnh trc tip:

D n B

-$2,000

+ $1,300

+$1,500

Tm IRR?

p dng cng thc:

PWR = PWC hay PWR - PWC = 0
PW(i*) = -2000 + 1300/(1+i*) + 1500/(1+i*)2 = 0
t X = 1/(1+i*)
PW(X) = -2000 + 1300X + 1500X2 = 0
X1 = 0.8 & X2=-1.667
i*1 = 25% & i*2 = -160%
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

10

4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

Phng php ni suy:
B1: d on gi tr i1 lm cho PW(i1)<0
B2: d on gi tr i2 lm cho PW(i2) > 0
B3: tnh i* gn ng bng cng thc:

i* = i2 + (i1-i2) x [PW(i2) / (PW(i2) PW(i1))]

B4: th li bng cch th i* vo phng trnh PW(i*)=0
=> i1 v i2 ch nn chnh lch t 1% - 5% th kt qu mi
ra gn ng nht
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

11

4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

Phng php ni suy:
S liu ban u
Chi ph v thu nhp
(triu ng)
u t ban u
Chi ph hng nm
Thu nhp hng nm
Gi tr cn li (SV)
Tui th - TT (nm)

D n A

Xc nh

100
22
50
20
5
IRR?

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

12

4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

AR = 50
0

SV = 20

AC = 22

P = 100

p dng cng thc:

PWR PWC = 0
(50tr 22tr )(P/A, i%, 5) + 20tr(P/F, i%, 5) 100tr = 0
S dng PP ni suy tm IRR:
Nu i1 = 20% th PW(20%) = -8,220,000
Nu i2 = 15% th PW(15%) = 3,800,000
i* = 15% + (20% -15%) x 3,800,000
3,800,000 (- 8,220,000)
Vy: IRR = 16.5% nm

= 16.5%

13

4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

Cch tnh IRR trn Excel:

14

4.2 Phng php tnh IRR

Cch tnh IRR trn Excel:

Chn dng
tin
Nhp gi tr i d
on gn ng
vi IRR

Dng tin

0
-100

IRR = 16.476%

1
28

2
28

3
28

4
28

5
48

IRR=(D5:I5, 0.1)
15

4.3 Nguyn tc chn d n theo IRR

Lm sao quyt nh chn hay khng chn d n?
0
-100

D n A

1
28

2
28

3
28

4
28

5
48

IRR= 16.5%

Gi s ta khng u t vo d n A, m dng100tr
gi tit kim ngn hng vi li sut 12%/nm.
Vy 12% c ngha g? Nn chn d n A hay gi
tit kim l c li nht?
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

16

4.3 Nguyn tc chn d n theo IRR

12% chnh l chi ph c hi ca vn nu vic

gi 100tr vo NH l c hi u t tt nht.

Vy 12% y xem nh l sut thu li ti

thiu chp nhn c minimum
acceptable rate of return MARR)

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

17

4.3 Nguyn tc chn d n theo IRR

Quy tc chung:
Khi IRR khng nh hn sut thu li ti thiu chp
nhn c MARR th c hi u t ng gi v mt
kinh t
IRR >= MARR : PW >= 0 (chp nhn d n)
IRR < MARR : PW < 0 (khng chp nhn d n)

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

18

4.3 Nguyn tc chn d n theo IRR

Cc trng hp c bit cn lu :
1. Dng tin ca d n l i vay (borrowing) hay
u t (investment) ?
2. Dng tin ca d n i du mt ln hay
nhiu ln ?

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

19

4.3 Nguyn tc chn d n theo IRR

Cc trng hp c bit cn lu :
N

-$1,000

-$1,000

+$1,000

-$500

$3,900

-$450

$800

-$5,030

-$450

$1,500

$2,145

-$450

$2,000

IRR

44.24%

10%

16.66%

u t
thng
thng

u t
khng
thng
thng

30%

Vay
thng
thng

50%

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

20

4.4 So snh cc phng n theo IRR

Chng ta c th xp hng d n loi tr nhau
bng tiu ch IRR khng?
N

D n A

D n B

-$1000

-$5000

$2000

$7000

IRR

100%

40%

PW(10%)

$818

$1364

PW l pp tnh theo s tuyt i (v: tin t)

IRR l pp tnh theo s tng i (v: %)
D n no c PW ln nht s c chn. Tuy nhin, nu da trn
tiu ch IRR, ta khng th chn d n no c IRR cao nht v IRR
khng tnh n quy m ca d n Cn s dng pp gia s.
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

21

4.4 So snh cc phng n theo IRR

Nguyn tc phn tch theo gia s:
1) So snh d n c vn u t ban u ln hn
vi PA c vn u t ban u nh hn ch khi PA
c u t nh hn l ng gi (c IRRMARR)

2) Chn PA c vn u t ban u ln hn nu gia

s vn u t l ng gi (IRR() MARR)

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

22

4.4 So snh cc phng n theo IRR

Cc bc tnh IRR () :
1. Lp dng tin tng thm gia 2 d n bng
cch ly dng tin c chi ph u t ln hn
(B) tr dng tin c chi ph u t thp hn
(A).
2. Tnh IRRB-A ca dng tin tng thm (B-A)
3. Quy tc chn:
IRRB-A > MARR: chn B
IRRB-A < MARR: chn A
IRRB-A = MARR: chn A hoc B
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

23

4.4 So snh cc phng n theo IRR

V d p dng pp gia s:

Ti sao l B-A
m ko l A-B

N
0

A
-$1,000

B
B-A
-$5,000 -$4,000

1
IRR
PW (10%)

+$2,000
100%
$818

$7,000 +$5,000
40%
25%
$1,364
$546

Gii thch:
B-A ngha l nu u t thm $4,000 vo d n B, d
n s to ra thm dng tin vo l $5,000. Sut sinh li
ca vic u t thm $4,000 ny vo d n B l 25%
(>MARR=10%)
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

24

Th tc so snh nhiu phng n:

tham kho sch KTKT tr. 84, 85
B1: Xp cc PA theo th t tng dn vn u t: A,B,C
B2: Xem PA s 0 (PA khng thc hin u t) nh l PA c th.
Tnh IRR() khi chuyn t PA 0 A.
Nu cc PA ch c chi ph m khng c thu nhp: dng A l PA c
th, B l PA thay th. Chuyn sang bc 4.
B3: Nu IRR(A) < MARR, gt b A v tnh RR(B) cho PA B tip theo.
Lp li bc ny cho n khi c mt PA X no m IRR(X) > MARR.
PA ny tr thnh phng n c th v PA c u t ln hn k tip
l PA thay th.
B4: Nu IRR(PA c th) MARR ta xc nh chui dng tin t gia
s gia cp phng n c th v thay th.
B5: Tnh IRR() ca chui dng tin t gia s
B6: Nu IRR() > MARR, gt b PA c th v ly PA thay th lm
PA c th. Ngc li gt b PA thay th v ly PA tip sau lm PA
thay th mi.
B7: Lp li bc (4) n (6) cho n khi ch cn 1 PA. l PA
c chn.
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

25

4.4 So snh cc phng n theo IRR

So snh cc PA loi tr nhau sau y, tm PA c li nht theo
phng php da trn IRR, vi MARR=18%. TTKT cc PA = 1 nm
Chi ph v thu
nhp (triu )
u t ban u
Thu nhp rng
Gi tr cn li

Cc phng n
A

1.000
150
1.000

1.500
375
1.500

2.500
500
2.500

4.000
925
4.000

5.000
1125
5.000

7.000
1.425
7.000

U T BAN U = GI TR CN LI IRR = THU NHP RNG/U T BAN U

Gia s
u t ban u
Thu nhp rng
IRR
ng gi
Kt Lun

BC

BD

DE

EF

1.000
150
15%

1.500
375
25%

1.000
125
12,5%

2.500
550
22%

1.000
200
20%

2.000
300
15%

Khng

Khng

Khng

Chn Phng n E
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

26

4.5 Bn cht ca IRR

IRR l sut thu li ca mt d n vi gi thit l
cc dng thu nhp rng dng (CFt) u c
em u t li vi sut thu li lm cho PW thu =
PW Chi hay AW Thu = AW Chi
Ch s IRR ca mt d n u t khng phi l
sut thu li ca vn u t ban u, m l sut
thu li tnh theo cc kt s cn li ca vn
u t u cc thi on.

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

27

4.5 Bn cht ca IRR

Kt s cn li
u nm

Tin li tnh
trn kt s cn
li u nm

-$10,000

-$6,979

-$3,656

-$1,000

-$697

-$365

Dng tin

-$10,000

+$4,021

+$4,021

+$4,021

Kt s cn li
cui nm

-$10,000

-$6,979

-$3,656

Cng ty t c sut sinh li 10% trn s tin cn li dng

ti u t vo d n. V s tin li thu c xut hin trong ni
ti d n, nn ta c khi nim sut sinh li ni ti .
28

4.6 So snh phng php PW v IRR

Phng php PW v IRR u dn n mt kt lun khi
la chn phng n u t.
V l thuyt: Phng php PW u th hn do IRR s
khng tnh c trong trng hp dng tin i du
nhiu ln.
V thc t: Phng php IRR c a chung hn do
pp ny cung cp mt cch trc quan v s liu t sut
sinh li ca phng n. Ngoi ra, tnh IRR th ta cng
khng cn bit trc MARR, trong khi pp PW phi bit
MARR th ta mi tnh ton c.
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

29

Lm bi tp: 4.1, 4.4, 4.5, 4.7, 4.9, 4.10

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

30

10