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Sketch 310816
Sketch 310816
Event
Probability
Payoff
i2 = 1
Bad news
1
2 +
N1
N
i2 = 1
Good news
1
2 +
i2 = 1
LT arrival
( sa 2 s ) N1 s
sb
sa
1
1
2 sb + 2 (sa 2 s )
i2 = 0
Bad news
1
2 +
N1
N
i2 = 0
Good news
1
2 +
N1
N
i2 = 0
LT arrival
i2 = 1
Bad news
1
2 +
N1
N
i2 = 1
Good news
1
2 +
i2 = 1
LT arrival
( sa ) N1 b
sb
1
1
(s
)
2
+
b
b
2
( sb ) N1 s
N1
N
1
2
( sb b )
( sa s )
sb (sb b ) + 12
(sa s )
sa
sa
( sb 2b ) N1 b
N1
N
sa