Global Hydrology Modelling and Uncertainty
However, the ultimate aim of hydrological modelling is to help inform
decisions in water resource management, and to forecast and manage
extreme events. This chapter will briefly review the history of
hydrological science, and the development and progression of
hydrology models. It will then introduce the issue of uncertainty, and
how this influences modelling studies. Some examples of previous work
that investigated uncertainties in hydrology modelling will be reviewed,
before the research questions for this thesis are presented at the end
the chapter.
1.2 Rainfall-Runoff Modelling
Hydrology models are often referred to as Rainfall-Runoff models,
since they use precipitation data to estimate runoff or river discharge.
They vary hugely in complexity, from simple equations used to predict a
single hydrograph peak, to extensive computer coded programs made
up of suites of equations to describe sequences of hydrological
processes. There are two broad categories of hydrological model: the
simple empirical or black box models, those that seek to verify
observations using past data, without much concern to the processes
within the model; and the more complex conceptual or physicallybased models which represent individual hydrological processes in
series of governing equations in an attempt to represent natural
behaviour as we understand it. Both of these categories fall under the
classification of deterministic models. Deterministic models are those
which produce a fixed output, given a specific set of inputs, and have no
random element to them. The converse of a deterministic model is a
stochastic model, which does contain an element of randomness (e.g.
when disaggregating precipitation data to a finer temporal resolution).
Stochastic models may produce slightly different outputs even if the
inputs are kept exactly the same. Many essentially deterministic models
contain small stochastic subroutines such as this.
Global Hydrology Modelling and Uncertainty
Most models use variables and parameters to drive them. Models
seek to define a relationship between entities that are of interest. These
entities are variables. Variables are generally time varying, and may be
a model input, output, or the result of an equation that changes
continuously over time. In rainfall runoff models, rainfall and runoff are
variables, as is potential evapotranspiration which is the result of
several process equations. Parameters however, are usually constants.
They are values that are required within equations of the model in order
to derive the relationships between variables. They are sometimes,
physically meaningful, but also sometimes statistical scaling factors that
do not have a tangible meaning. In rainfall runoff models, parameters
may represent factors such as the height of a specific vegetation type,
or the temperature at which snow begins to melt.
1.3 Hydrology Modelling: A Historic Review
A diagrammatic representation of the history of hydrology modelling,
and the introduction of global hydrology models is shown in Figure 1.1.
The origins of hydrological modelling can be traced back to the work of
Mulvany (1851). Thomas James Mulvany developed the rational
method, a simple equation which was used to predict the peak of a
hydrograph. This was followed by the event model by douard
Imbeaux (1892) which was perhaps the first attempt to produce a
distributed hydrological model. Imbeaux divided the Durance River in
France into zones, and then estimated the travel time for the runoff from
each zone to the outlet to produce a prediction of the hydrograph. This
time-area concept was advanced in 1932 by Sherman who developed
the unitgraph, which later became the unit hydrograph (Sherman,
1949), and is still popular today.
The unit hydrograph is a simple method that does not require the
division of the catchment into different time increments, but instead
uses a transfer function to relate effective rainfall to total catchment
runoff response in a unit of time.
Figure 1.1 Select key papers and databases in the history of hydrological research. Circle diameter is proportional to the
number of paper citations. Rectangles indicate advances that cannot be associated with specific academic papers.
Global Hydrology Modelling and Uncertainty
Global Hydrology Modelling and Uncertainty
However, the unit hydrograph method had a problem of linearity, as
routing rainfall is a nonlinear problem that is influenced by rainfall
intensity, soil properties, and antecedent conditions (Beven, 2012). Just
a year after Shermans paper, Robert Horton published a paper that
went some way toward tackling this problem, which is still an issue in
todays models. Horton (1933) developed a theory of infiltration to
estimate rainfall excess and improve hydrograph separation techniques
(Singh and Woolhiser, 2002). Hortons work on infiltration was preceded
by the very well-known and still popular formula of Green and Ampt
(1911). Horton is most famous for his final paper in 1945, which built
upon his concept of infiltration excess overland flow, now known as
Hortonian overland flow (Horton, 1945).
Alongside these works, Fair and Hatch (1933) developed a relationship
to describe the permeability of soil, and Theis (1935) related heat-flow
equations to groundwater problems (Kasenow, 2001). Theis paper
became the foundations of groundwater hydrology. Evapotranspiration
was tackled by two equally popular papers by Thornthwaite (1948) and
Penman (1948). Penmans work continued to develop the combined
Penman-Monteith equation (Penman, 1956, Monteith, 1965, Allen et al.,
1998), the modification of which is one of the two most popular potential
evapotranspiration equations used in models today. The other is the
simpler Priestley-Taylor equation (Priestley and Taylor, 1972) which
requires less observational data. The mid-1950s saw some significant
advances in hydrological research. The mathematicians Lighthill and
Whitham (1955) established kinematic wave theory for flow routing in
long rivers. Also applicable to traffic on long roads, this theory is a
foundational mathematical development and is now a standard tool for
modelling overland flow and other hydrologic processes (Singh and
Woolhiser, 2002). Nash (1957) proposed the instantaneous unit
hydrograph and Dooge (1959) developed the generalized unit
hydrograph. In 1965, Amerman introduced the Unit Source Area
concept. This conceptual model categorises similar areas of a
