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The World Ameriaca Made - Vietnamese PDF
The World Ameriaca Made - Vietnamese PDF
THE WORLD
AMERICA MADE
ROBERT KAGAN
Alfred A. Knoff
TH GII
DO M TO RA
Robert Kagan
Tng Tor
Mc lc
Li gii hiu
Dn nhp
10
14
Th gii do M to ra
20
Ci g n tip sau?
55
78
101
Ghi ch
106
V tc gi
115
Li Gii thiu
Bn c cm trn tay cun th hai mi hai* ca t sch SOS2, cun Th gii do M to ra
ca Robert Kagan. y l cun sch mng bn v trt t th gii hin hnh t sau Chin tranh
Th gii II cho n nay, m tc gi gi l trt t th gii M.
Trt t th gii M c c trng bi mt s lng cha tng c cc quc gia dn ch;
mt s thnh vng ton cu ln hn bao gi ht, mc d c cuc khng hong ang din ra;
v mt nn ha bnh di gia cc cng quc ln phn nh nhng nguyn tc v k vng ca
M, c xy dng v duy tr bi sc mnh M trn tt c cc mt chnh tr, kinh t v qun
s.
Vi s tri dy ca Trung Quc, vi khng hong ti chnh v khng hong kinh t hin
nay, vi s tr tr ca nn kinh t M v Chu u. Nhiu cu hi c t ra. Chng hn nh,
c phi M ang trong tnh trng suy tn, nh nhiu ngi hin ang tin nh th? Hay liu c
phi ngi M ang theo ui c t st liu lnh ca mt siu cng do s hi khng ng
ch v s suy gim quyn lc ca chnh bn thn h? Liu Trung Quc c th tr thnh siu
* Cc quyn trc gm:
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DN NHP
TRONG CUN SCH kinh in ca Frank Capra, cun Its a Wonderful Life Mt Cuc sng
thnh cng n mc nhiu ngi kt lun vo bui bnh minh ca th k hai mi rng
nhn loi t nh im ca s tin ha v rng chin tranh ln v chnh th chuyn ch
tr nn li thi.
Th nhng, vi s n ra ca Chin tranh Th gii I, thi i ha bnh n nh v thng
tin ch ngha khai phng ca nn vn minh u chu ang t nh im ca n sp
thnh mt thi k ca siuch ngha dn tc, ch chuyn quyn, v tai ha kinh t. S m
rng ha hn mt thi ca dn ch v ch ngha khai phng ngng li, v ri o chiu,
li vi nn dn ch b p o v s lng v b bao vy, sng bn chn lo lng di ci bng
ca cc lng ging pht xt v ton tr mi ca h. t ngt, l mt th gii y cc lnh
t n cp ngi trn nh cc chnh quyn cp bc. S sp ca cc trt t Anh v u
chu khng to ra mt thi i en ti mi tuy, nu nc c Nazi v nc Nht
quc gi nh thng, th c th nhng tai bin m n to ra, theo cch ring ca n,
khng t tn ph khng khip hn.
S chm dt ca trt t M hin thi s c nhng hu qu t thm khc hn? l cu
hi ng hi by gi, khi rt nhiu ngi tnh n trin vng M suy tn. Mt con s ng
ngc nhin ca cc tr thc, chnh tr gia, v nh quyt nh chnh sch M n cho trin
vng vi s thanh thn. C mt cm gic chung rng s kt thc ca thi i ca s u
vit M khng nht thit c ngha l s kt thc ca trt t quc t khai phng hin thi. S
k vng, nu khng phi gi thit, l, cc tnh cht tt ca trt t nn dn ch, s thnh
vng, ha bnh gia cc cng quc c th vt qu s suy tn ca quyn lc v nh
hng M. Ngay c vi sc mnh M b gim i, nh khoa hc chnh tr G. John Ikenberry
vit, cc nn tng c s ca trt t quc t khai phng s tn ti v pht trin mnh.2 V c
mt quan im i cng rng s suy tn ca M trong mi trng hp l mt s thc ca
cuc sng ri, cho nn bt lun n l iu tt hay xu, chng ta chng c th lm g v chuyn
.
Tng phn vi ci phng ny, ng kho st t m xem trt t th gii hin hnh ph
thuc mc no vo quyn lc M v cc tnh cht n nht ca n. N c ngha l g i
vi tng lai nu gi nh trt t quc t khng cn c nh hnh ch yu bi Hoa K v cc
quc gia ng minh c thc ging nhau? Ai hay ci g s th ch M? V c mt tp hp
khc ca cc cu hi quan trng ngang th: C tht M ang suy tn? Hay nhng ngi M
12
13
14
Mt vi trong s cc tnh cht quan trng ny l hin nhin. Hon cnh a l c nht
ca M, h thng kinh t t bn ch ngha ca n, hnh thi chnh quyn dn ch ca n, v
sc mnh qun s khng l ca n cng nhau nh hnh mt loi c th ca trt t quc
t, m trt t y hn s trng rt khc gi nh mt quc gia khc vi cc c trng khc c
mc nh hng tng t.
Khng d nm bt, nhng khng km quan trng hiu bn cht ca trt t th gii M,
l c tnh phc hp ca dn tc M. y khng phi l bi ht ca tng n gin v cc c
hnh siu vit ca nhng ngi M. Mt s ngi miu t nhng ngi M nh cc nh xy
dng nhn xa trng rng ca cc nh ch quc t v nhng kt cu ca trt t khai phng,
nh cc nh vn hnh v cc nh qun l chn chn ca cc h thng ton cu bao la.3
Nhng t ngi M, v t ngi ngoi M, cng nhn bc chn dung ny. Trong hu ht cc
kha cnh, nhng ngi M ging bt c dn tc khc no, vi mt s pha trn ca tnh ch
k v tnh ho phng. Nhiu hn hu ht, h l nhng ngi c nhng xung ng mu thun
v cch nhn nc i nht v vai tr, nu c, m h phi ng trn th gii.
H l nhng ngi c y cc huyn thoi dn tc mnh, m chng va to cm hng
cho, va lm lc li h. Bt u vi s thc rng mt trong s cc dn tc hng mnh, nh
hng v bnh trng nht trong lch s vn ngh v mnh nh h hng, th ng, t kim
ch, v ni chung thin v chm ch n chuyn ring ca h. Trong t hn hai th k, nhng
ngi M bin i quc gia ca h t mt mnh thuc a bm vo mt min duyn hi
thnh mt siu cng bao quanh tri t vi sc mnh v nh hng khng ai snh kp trong
lch s. Th m nghe ngi M ni, h l dn tc kiu Greta Garbo: h ch mun c
yn mt mnh. Trong huyn thoi dn tc ca h, s chnh phc di hai th k ca lc a Bc
M, mt vng ni nhng ngi Ty Ban Nha, Php, Nga, cng nh ton b dng ging ca
nhng ngi bn a sng, khng phi l mt s xm ln m l s nh c yn bnh ca
vng bin cng khng c ngi . Nhng ngi M khng i ra nc ngoi tm nhng
con qui vt tiu dit l cch ni thng c trch dn ca John Quincy Adams. Nu ai
ch ra cho h rng, qu thc, h thng lm ng iu , th h miu t mnh nh cc
sheriff * bt c d, gc chn i gy ng ln bn, c bo cho n khi bn khn no vo th
trn v buc h li sng trng khi gi, du l bn quc Nht, Nazi, cng sn Soviet, hay
jihadis Hi gio. Hp chng Quc M chng bao gi bt u chin tranh bi v chng ta
*
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mng, nhng ngh mnh l cng quc [gi] nguyn trng. H mun c yn mt mnh,
nhng c v li khng th bt k ai khc yn mt mnh. H lin tc lm th gii ngc nhin
vi ng x ca h, nhng khng nhiu n mc nh h lin tc lm chnh h ngc nhin.
Khi Winston Churchill nhn xt rng lun lun c th tnh n nhng ngi M lm
nhng vic ng, nhng ch sau khi vt cn tt c cc kh nng la chn khc, l mt
li khen thuc loi ma mai, chm bim. Trong sut din tin ca na u th k hai mi,
ng thy h th lm nhng vic sai nhiu ln. ng thy h ng ngoi Chin tranh Th
gii I cho n khi hu nh qu mun ngn chn chin thng ca c. Trong cc nm
gia hai cuc chin tranh th gii, ng thy h t chi tham gia Hi Quc Lin v ri
phi lo u ch i h t b s trung lp v dn sc mnh ca h chng li Hitler, vic m h
ch lm sau khi Trn Chu Cng b tn cng v ch khi hu nh li qu mun mt ln na.
Bui u ca Chin tranh Lnh ng thy h ch khng n mi e da ca Lin X;
ri ng thy h khng nhn nhng mt cch qu ng. ng bit nhng ngi M khi h
chm trong tnh ch k, th nhng ng kinh ngc trc lng v tha ca M, s khng v
li cao thng ca n. ng so snh Hoa K vi ni hi khng l no , yn lng v
lnh cho n khi la c nhm di n, v ri khng c gii hn no i vi sc mnh
m n c th to ra.9 Trn ht, ng bit nhng ngi M l nhng con ngi, khng phi
ma qu cng chng phi cc thin thn.
L IU QUAN TRNG nh. N l mt quc gia bao gm nhng con ngi nh hnh
th gii, khng phi cha hay cc thn thnh. l v sao trt t hin hnh, c nh hnh
bi nhng ngi M, vi tt c nhng tnh khc thng v khim khuyt ca n, thng mt
cch v thc li cng phi thng hn. Bc thy, nh o din v i ca s thng nht c,
Otto von Bismarck c cho l ni rng Cha i ch nhng ngi say ru, nhng
k ngu xun, v Hp chng Quc Hoa K. C l iu m rng ra cho trt t th gii m
nhng ngi M xy dng v duy tr, hu nh bt chp bn thn h.
19
TH GII DO M TO RA
MA MAI L, s pha trn l k ca cc tnh cht, m nhng ngi M biu l, khng phi tt
c chng l ng khm phc, khng phi tt c chng l cao thng, v khng phi tt c
chng l cc nt hin nhin ca kh nng lnh o, li l mt loi ti sn k l i vi
chnh sch i ngoi M. Bi v trong khi ng rng Hoa K l mt tc nhn hng mnh,
du khng th tin on c v thng khng c , ca s thay i trn th gii, tnh nc
i ca ngi dn M cng nh s thiu t gic ca h, mt cch nghch l li khin cho sc
mnh kinh hong ca h t e da hn nh n c th. Nhng ngi M s ng s hn nu
gi nh h c mt k hoch. S rt phn tm ca h, s ao c r rt ca h gi bn
thn h xa khi th gii m du h nh hnh n vi sc mnh ca mnh, khin h tr thnh
mt ng minh thng gy tht vng, mt k ch gy nhm ln, nhng cng tr thnh mt
k b ch t p t hn, t gy hong s hn.
Cc tnh cht ny t ra l khng th thiu c hm su thp k trc khi Hoa K t
nn mng chnh cho trt t th gii t do ca ngy nay bng vic tht cht s lin minh kinh
t v chin lc ca n vi Chu u. By gi khi Chu u c cho l pass (qu kh) v
chng ta bc vo Th k chu, d qun rng th gii m chng ta bit hm nay
trt t chnh tr, kinh t, v chin lc m trong bn thn Chu thnh vng c
sinh ra trn ng tro tn ca Chu u sau Chin tranh Th gii II. V n c sinh ra ch
bi v Hoa K cung cp mt li gii mi cho vn khng th gii ni ca Chu u.
Sau gia th k mi chn, cc cng quc u chu ri vo mt hi chng bi thm,
m t h khng c kh nng t gii thot mnh. c qu nhiu cng quc hng
mnh v tham vng qu gn nhau c th cung cp cho bt k nc no trong s mt
mc an ninh. S cn bng quyn lc u chu hot ng trong nhng qung thi gian,
nhng n cng tht bi mt cch nh k v thm hi. Gia 1850 v 1945, Php v c
(hay Ph trong th d u tin) lao vo chin tranh ba ln nm 1870, 1914 v 1940. Nga
v c lm chin hai ln. Anh v Php cng nhau nh Nga mt ln. Gia cc cuc
chin tranh ln ny c nhiu cuc chin tranh gn khi cng thng gia tng, c bit vng
Balkan nhng cng trong c vic phn chia li lc thuc a Chu Phi v ng . Ngay c
20
22
Khng mnh tri thn thnh hay mc ch lun tin b no, khng php bin chng Hegelian
m ra no i hi rng ch ngha khai phng (t doliberalism) chin thng sau Chin
tranh Th gii II. Nhng ngi sng trong th gii ng ch ny thng gi thit rng c s
bng n ton cu ca dn ch v trt t kinh t t do ca thng mi t do v cc th trng
t do, m mang li s thnh vng trong hn su mi nm va qua ny, n gin l
mt giai on t nhin trong s tin b hng ln ca loi ngi. Chng ta thch tin rng
chin thng ca dn ch l chin thng ca mt t tng v chin thng ca ch ngha t bn
th trng l chin thng ca mt h thng tt hn, v c hai l khng th o ngc c.
l mt ngh d chu, nhng lch s cho bit mt cu chuyn khc. Tin b dn ch
v kinh t t do b v c th b o ngc v b d. Cc nn dn ch c Hy Lp v cc
nn cng ha Rome v Venice tt c sp bi cc lc lng hng mnh hn hoc
thng qua s t sp ca chng. Trt t kinh t t do ang tin ha ca cui th k mi
chn v u th k hai mi sp trong cc nm 1920 v 1930. T tng hay hn khng
nht thit thng ch bi v n l t tng hay hn. N i hi cc cng quc bnh vc n.
Hy xem xt nhng thng trm ca dn ch ch trong hai th k qua. T thi gian cch
mng M n gn cui th k mi chn, chng bao gi c nhiu hn nm nc trn th
gii m c th gi l cc nn dn ch. Cn gi ngn ca cc cuc cch mng khai phng v
lp hin Chu u nm 1848 b dp tt. Nhng trong cui th k mi chn c mt s
tng tin. Vo nm 1900 c mt t nn dn ch trn th gii, mt s tng trng gy kinh
ngc n mc nhng ngi ng thi tin rng mt cuc cch mng dn ch sp qut
ngang hnh tinh. Ri Chin tranh Th gii I v chin thng ca Vng quc Anh, Php v
Hoa K n. Cc chnh ph dn ch nh ln khp Chu u, cc cng quc b nh bi
l c, o, v Th Nh K Ottoman, ti Phn Lan, Ba Lan v Hy Lp, v ri c M Latin
na. Vo nm 1920, vi s cc nn dn ch t ngt tng gp i, s gia James Bryce, cng
vi nhiu ngi khc, t hi phi chng xu hng ti dn ch ny khng l s thng
ging tm thi m l mt xu th t nhin, do quy lut chung v tin b x hi.14 Nh nh
kinh t hc Anh J. A. Hobson mun hn nh li, dn ch tin b nh vy hu ht cc
nc trn th gii c coi l mc tiu t nhin ca s tin ha chnh tr. Ngay c nhng
ngi khng tin n cng tin n l khng th trnh khi.15
23
Trong tin trnh ca cc nm 1920 v 1930, tuy vy, xu hng chuyn theo chiu
hng khc mt ln song ngc, nh Samuel P. Huntington gi n. N bt u vi s
tip qun pht xt ca Mussolini nm 1922. Ri cc nn dn ch mi sinh Lithuania, Ba
Lan, Latvia, v Estonia sp . Sau n s ni ln ca Hitler v bn Nazi c vo u
cc nm 1930 v s tip qun bng v lc ca chng o v sau Czechoslovakia. Nn
dn ch Hy Lp sp nm 1936, v nn dn ch Ty Ban Nha ri vo tay Franco v ch
pht xt trong cng nm . Cc cuc o chnh qun s lt cc chnh ph dn ch B
o Nha, Brazil, Uruguay v Argentina. Nn dn ch Nht Bn tr thnh faade (mt tin)
cho s cai tr qun s trong cc nm 1930. Ngang qua ba lc a, cc nn dn ch mong manh
nhng ng cho cc lc lng c on khai thc nhng tnh d tn thng ca h
thng dn ch, trong khi cc nn dn ch khc b suy thoi kinh t dy v. Cng c tc
ng lan ta thnh cng ca ch ngha pht xt mt nc tng cng cc phong tro
tng t ni khc. Nhng k pht xt Ty Ban Nha nhn c s gip qun s t cc
ch pht xt c v . Vo nm 1939, trc Chin tranh Th gii II, s cc nn dn ch
st xung khng nhiu hn mt t. Tt c nhng s gia tng dn ch ca bn mi nm
trc b qut sch.
Giai on sau Chin tranh Th gii I cho thy khng ch rng nhng s gia tng dn
ch c th b o ngc m rng dn ch khng lun lun thng s cnh tranh ca cc t
tng. khng ch l, nn dn ch b lt . Nh Hobson nhn xt, chnh t tng dn
ch mt tn nhim.16 Ho quang v tnh khng th trnh c ca n tiu tan. Rt
nhiu ngi khng tin dn ch l hnh thc tt hn ca chnh ph.
Cc chnh ph pht xt trng mnh hn, nng ng v hiu qu hn, v c kh nng hn
lm yn lng trong nhng thi k hn lon. Chng cng hp dn mnh vi tnh cm dn
tc ch ngha. Nhiu yu im ca nn dn ch Weimar c v ca cc nn dn ch mong
manh v ngn ngi v Ty Ban Nha khin cho nhn dn h d b nh hng bi nhng
li ku gi ca Hitler, Mussolini, v Franco, ht nh s yu km ca nn dn ch Nga trong
cc nm 1990 khin cho chnh ph c on hn ca Vladimir Putin hp dn hn i vi
nhiu ngi Nga ch t trong mt thi gian. Ha ra l, nhng con ngi khao kht khng ch
quyn t do, s t tr, quyn li c nhn, v s cng nhn. c bit trong nhng thi k kh
khn, h cng kht khao s an ton, trt t, v mt thc thuc v ci g ln hn bn thn
h, ci g p o s t tr v quyn li c nhn m cc ch chuyn quyn thng lm
tt hn cc nn dn ch. Ngi ta thng cng hay theo nhng k thng. Trong cc nm 1920
24
25
C mt tiu thuyt vi tiu The catcher in the Rye ca J. D. Salinger (c dch ra ting Vit l Bt tr ng
xanh)
29
phi l vic lm ca M. Nhn dn cc quc gia thuc Hip c Warsaw trc y khao
kht t lu c gii phng khi Lin X, m cng c ngha l gii phng khi ch ngha
cng sn. H mun gia nhp vo phn cn li ca Chu u, phn cho mi m hnh kinh
t v x hi thm ch cn hp dn hn m hnh ca Hoa K. Rng h ng lot chn cc hnh
thc dn ch cho chnh ph, tuy vy, khng n gin l mong c i vi t do hay an
nhn sung tc. N cng phn nh mong mun ca cc dn tc ng v Trung u t bn
thn h di ci an ninh M. Cc vn chin lc, kinh t , chnh tr, v thc h nh th
khng th tch khi nhau. Cc quc gia mun tham gia NATO, v mun hn Lin minh
u Chu, bit rng h chng c c hi no nu khng trng ra c giy chng nhn dn
ch. Nhng chuyn i dn ch ny, m bin ln sng th ba thnh mt sng thn dn ch,
khng nht thit xut hin gi nh th gii c cu hnh khc i. S tht rng mt Ty
u dn ch, thng nht, v thnh vng nh mt nam chm ht cc lng ging
phng ng ca n, l do hnh ng ca M sau Chin tranh Th gii II.
Cu hnh ca quyn lc v cc t tng trong bt k h thng quc t no lun lun tc
ng n hnh thc chnh ph ca cc quc gia bn trong h thng . i snh s phn ca
cc phong tro dn ch vo cui th k th hai mi vi s phn ca cc cuc cch mng t
do qut ngang Chu u nm 1848. Bt u Php, Ma Xun ca cc Dn Tc, nh n c
bit n vi tn gi y, bao gm cc nh ci cch khai phng v nhng ngi theo ch
ngha hp hin, cc nh dn tc ch ngha, v cc i din ca tng lp trung lu ang ln,
cng nh cc cng nhn cp tin v nhng ngi theo ch ngha x hi. Ch trong my tun l
h lt cc ng vua v hong t, lm lung lay cc ngai vng t c v , Php v
Ba Lan, o v Hungary, v Rumani. Cui cng, tuy vy, cc phong tro t do tht bi,
mt phn do thiu s c kt, nhng mt phn bi v h b bp bng v lc bi cc th lc
chuyn quyn. Qun i Ph gip nh bi cc phong tro khai phng cc cng quc
c. Sa hong lnh cho qun ca ng tin vo Rumani v Hungary. Hng chc ngn ngi
phn i b git trn cc ng ph u chu. Li kim mnh hn ngi bt.
quan trng l, cc cng quc t do hn, Anh v Php, chp nhn mt t th trung
lp sut qu trnh ln men t do, cho d cch mng ca ring nc Php chm ngi v gy
cm hng cho phong tro tonu chu. Ch qun ch v qu tc Anh s ch ngha cp
tin trong nc. C Php v Anh quan tm hn n vic duy tr ha bnh gia cc cng
quc ln hn l gip cho cc ng ch theo ch ngha t do. S duy tr cn bng u chu
gia nm cng quc ln c li cho cc lc lng phn cch mng mi ni, v Ma
30
thc chung ngy nay l, h thng th trng t do quc t n thun l mt giai on t nhin
trong s tin ha ca nn kinh t ton cu. Cc lc lng ca ton cu ha, cc cuc cch
mng v truyn thng v cng ngh, s tng thuc ngy cng tng gia cc quc gia v dn
tc, to ra mt h thng m c l khng th trnh khi ln l tduy tr.
Th nhng lch s cho chng ta bit rng, cng chng c g l khng th trnh khi v
mt nn kinh t quc t t do c. Mt th trng t do, nn kinh t ton cu t do thng mi
khng ch n gin ra i. N l mt s la chn, v n cng l mt s p t. Nh nh khoa
hc chnh tr Robert Gilpin nhn xt, Mt nn kinh t quc t t do khng th hnh thnh
v c duy tr, tr phi n c ng sau mnh (cc) quc gia hng mnh nht trong h thng.30
Nhng i mi cng ngh v cc xu hng x hi c th ng h v cng c mt trt t nh
vy, nu nhn dn mun n c cng c. Nhng nhn dn v cc quc gia phi mun n, v
c bit nht l cc quc gia vi sc mnh ln nht cc quc gia p o phi mun n. V
cc quc gia him khi lm bt c iu g bt ha cn bn vi cc li ch sng cn nht ca h,
cc cng quc ni tri phi tin rng mt trt t kinh t t do quc t l cng c tt nht
tng s giu c v sc mnh ca h.
33
37
i khi tng hay hn khng thng ngay c khi n r rng l hay hn. l bi hc
ca u th k hai mi. Thp nin trc Chin tranh Th gii I chng kin s tng trng
kinh t Chu u tng ln mc ng ch 5 phn trm mt nm vi t cch siu cng duy
nht v hi qun ca ngy , nc Anh, m rng u t v thng mi c Lc a v
khp th gii. Ton cu ha c kch thch bi hai sng ch mi, in tn khng dy v tu
thy hi nc chy ngang i dng, l mt iu thn k i vi ngi dn cui th k
mi chn cng nhiu nh s ton cu ha c dn dt v mt cng ngh hin nay i vi
chng ta. V n c tc ng kch thch tng t ln nn kinh t ton cu. John Maynard
Keynes gi n l mt Eldorado kinh t, v mt lc, nh ng nhn xt, s hng thnh
bt pht (boom) kinh t quc t ng ch ny khng b ph v bi cc d n v chnh tr
ca ch ngha qun phit v ch ngha quc, ca s tranh ua chng tc v vn ha, ca
nhng s c quyn, nhng s hn ch, v s loi tr.38
Nhng ri, t ngt, n b ph v. u tin l Chin tranh Th gii I, vi hng chc triu
thng vong v ph tn khng l, lm t lit quc gia. Ri n s chuyn hng sang cc nn
kinh t do nh nc thng tr cc nc pht xt v Lin X. Cc ch c ti mi k v cc
nn dn ch tht bi trong cc nm ngay sau chin tranh chp nhn cc nn kinh t thi
chin trong thi bnh. Cng rm cui cng [lm gy lng lc git nc trn ly] n trong
cc nm 1920, vi s thay i t thng mi t do sang theo hng ch ngha bo h thu
quan cao gia cc nn kinh t tin tin v suy thoi ton cu ko di k tip. Chin tranh Th
gii I v cc chnh sch kinh t v thng mi thi hu chin hy hoi trt t kinh t t do
ca Chu u.
Bi hc l, trong khi nhng tin b cng ngh cc cuc cch mng truyn thng v giao
thng, v cc yu t khc c th to thun tin cho thng mi t do hn v cc th trng
t do hn, nhng khng m bo chng, cng chng cung cp s bo v tin cy chng li
ch ca cc quc gia hng mnh hoc chng li s in r ca con ngi. Nhiu quc gia c
th hng li t trt t kinh t t do v mun thy n c duy tr. Nhng nh Chin tranh
Th gii I chng minh, cc quc gia c cc li ch khc bn cnh li ch kinh t.
Tt nhin, cc cuc chin tranh gia cc cng quc ln lun lun l cht xc tc cho
s thay i h thng quc t, xa sch cc trt t th gii c v sinh ra mt cch m mu cc
trt t th gii mi. Chng cng tn ph cc nn kinh t ton cu, nh hnh li cc tiu chun
v cc thc h, v bin i cch t duy ca ngi dn, cch h sng, v ci h tin. y l
38
kt qu ca cc cuc chin tranh Napoleonic v hai cuc chin tranh th gii, m khng ch
nh hnh li h thng quc t m cn to ra cc cuc cch mng Nga v Trung Quc m
cc cuc cch mng y cng nh hnh th gii mt cch ng k nh vy. Thm ch cc cuc
xung t hn ch hn gia cc cng quc ln cng c th lm thay i bn cht ca h thng
quc t mt cch cn bn: Chin tranh PhpPh sinh ra mt nc c mi, thng nht,
vi tt c di sn cho tng lai ca ha bnh u chu; chin tranh NgaNht bo trc s
n ca Nht Bn vi t cch mt cng quc ln c kh nng thng tr ng , vi tt c di
sn cho tng lai ca ha bnh trong khu vc ca th gii.
Nhiu ngi tin rng cc cuc chin tranh gia cc cng quc ln l khng cn c th
na. Nn ha bnh gia cc cng quc ln, iu c trng cho k nguyn thng tr M,
khng phi l mt s gii lao tm thi m l iu kin lu bn thng xuyn mi ca nhn
loi, l mt pha tip theo trong s thng tin ca cc loi m khng th o ngc c. L
lun ha bnh dn ch cho rng bi v cc nn dn ch him khi tin hnh chin tranh vi cc
nn dn ch khc, s m rng ca nn dn ch hn ch v cn bn kh nng chin tranh.
Nhiu ngi tin rng s ph thuc ln nhau v kinh t cng ngn cn chin tranh: cc quc
gia bun bn vi nhau v ph thuc vo s thnh vng ca nhau khng c khuyn khch
(incentive) nh nhau. Nu nguyn nhn chnh ca chin tranh trong sut lch s l
chin u kim sot lnh th, ngy nay nhiu ngi cho rng chim hu lnh th l khng
quan trng bng chim hu th trng v cng ngh. V th to sao cc quc gia li chin u
v lnh th?
Mt s ngi thm ch cn cho rng con ngi t b khuynh hng bo lc mang tnh
lch s ca h. H c x hi ha a thch ha hnh v phi bo lc. Nh tm l hc
tin ha Steven Pinker, nhn thy s gim t ngt s ngi cht t cc cuc chin tranh,
xung t sc tc, v o chnh qun s t 1945, lp lun rng tnh v nhn o truyn thng
ca con ngi i vi con ngi gim xung mt cch t ngt. Ngi dn c s thu
cm ln hn i vi nhau; h hc c rng hp tc ha bnh l ng cng hn xung t
v tranh ua; h t mt gi tr cao hn ln cuc sng.39 Vi tt c cc c trng tng cng
ln nhau ny ca th gii hin i, khng ngc nhin l cc nh khoa hc chnh tr kt lun
rng chin tranh gia cc cng quc dn u khng ch l khng chc xy ra m ng l
khng th tng tng ni.40
39
40
41
45
y l mt hin tng mi trong cng vic quc t. Ngay c khi Hoa K tin hnh cc
hot ng qun s m nhng ngi khc coi l khng c bin minh v phi php, vic ny
khng dn n vic rt s ng h quyn lc M ni chung. Hnh ng nm 2011 Libya
l mt th d hng u. Ch vi nm sau s n o ton cu v vic Hoa K xm chim Iraq,
v vi binh lnh M vn tin hnh cuc chin tranh khng c lng dn y, nhiu quc gia,
dn u bi Php v Anh, thm ch c cc nh nc Arab, cu khn Hoa K trin khai sc
mnh qun s ca mnh, li lt mt k thng tr Muslim na trong mt nc Arab. Rt
nhiu quc gia ng h vic Hoa K s dng v lc Libya n mc hai quc gia chc
chn khng a thy sc mnh M li c ph trng Nga v Trung Quc cm
thy h khng c la chn no ngoi vic ng thun s mong mun thnh hnh Hoa K li
ln na rt gm ca mnh ra.
Ngi ta khng th trch Moscow hay Bc Kinh v h l nhng ngi ng h bt hnh v
min cng ca hnh ng qun s M, Libya v nhng ni khc. Chng quc gia no
trong hai cng quc ln ny c bao gi c hng s ng h quc t tng t cho vic
s dng v lc ca h. Khi Nga tin hnh chin tranh, n tin hnh mt mnh, ch t k t
Chin tranh Th gii II. Khng c cuc b phiu no Lin Hip Quc hay bt c t chc
a phng no khc ph chun vic Moscow s dng v lc. Khi Nga a binh lnh ca mnh
vo Georgia nm 2008, ngay c phin bn NATO ca ring n, T chc Hp tc Thng Hi,
khng a ra s chp thun. Khi nhng ngi Soviet can thip vo Afghanistan nm 1979,
h vo m khng c s tham gia ca binh lnh Ba Lan hay ca cc nc thnh vin Hip
c Warsaw khc bn cnh h. Ma mai thay, khi cc lnh Ba Lan cui cng i chin u
Afghanistan gn hai thp nin sau, h st cnh cng binh lnh M.
Khi Trung Quc can thip vo Triu Tin nm 1950, n cng tin hnh mt mnh. N
khng s dng v lc k t khi li ni ln vi t cch mt cng quc ln, nhng n c
nhn c s chp thun nu n s dng? Ngy nay, ngay c khi Trung Quc c vi tu
cho cc n lc chng cp bin cch xa b bin chu Phi, n gy nn s lo ngi gia cc
cng quc a phng, nh n . Cc nh chin lc Trung Quc i khi ly lm l v
cch Hoa K c th xoay x c. Nh nh t tng chin lc Dim Hc Thng (Yan
Xuetong) din t, nhng ngi M to ra mt h thng b ch c nh ch ha bng
cch thit lp cc tiu chun quc t ph hp vi cc nguyn l ng x M. Mt khi cc
tiu chun ny c a s cc nc chp nhn, th quyn b ch M tr nn c hp
php ha.49 Nhng ci ngi Trung Quc thy thc s kh chu l quy m ca cc lin minh
47
51
C nh, cc nh lnh o Trung Quc nhn quanh v cm thy mt bc tng ngn chn
do M xy dng. Nh H Cm o din t vi nm trc y, Hoa K tng cng vic
trin khai qun s ca n khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng, cng c lin minh qun s
MNht, tng cng s hp tc chin lc vi n , ci thin cc mi quan h vi
Vit Nam, d d Pakistan, thit lp chnh ph thn M Afghanistan, tng bn v
kh cho i Loan, v vn vn. H m rng cc tin n v t cc im p lc ln
chng ta t hng ng, nam v ty.56 Cc nh lnh o Trung Quc che giu mt ni s
thng trc v b cc cng quc dn u, c bit l Hoa K, chn ra v nhm ti v mt
s lo u su sc cho s sng st ca ch , gn nh l mt cm gic b bao vy.57 Trin
vng v i cnh st (posse comitatus) M ton cu ny, v thc t khng th chi ci c
ca sc mnh qun s M, l ci g phi coi mt cch nghim tc. Nh cc nh
nghin cu lch s cn trng, nhng ngi Trung Quc bit r s phn ca c, Nht Bn, v
Lin X.
S kt hp l thng ca sc mnh to ln v s chp nhn ton cu c bit ca sc
mnh l nhn t chnh ngn chn chin tranh gia cc cng quc ln. Chng ta b la
mt bi dn ch ha, ton cu ha, v s ph thuc ln nhau, v tin cc din bin mi ny l
nhng ci lm cho th gii ca chng ta khc n vy. Nhng cc xu hng ny ln xung
thng xuyn trong hn mt th k, v chng khng ngn cn c cc cuc chin tranh
thm khc trong qu kh v khng th c da vo trong tng lai. L thuyt ha bnh dn
ch c khoe khoang khoc lc nhiu s c sc thuyt phc hn nu gi nh cc cng quc
ln thc s u l cc nn dn ch. N c th gii thch v sao c v Php khng tin
hnh chin tranh, nhng n khng gii thch v sao Nga v Trung Quc, hai cng quc ln
chuyn quyn, hy cn b dnh lu trong cc xung t vi cc cng quc ln khc. S ph
thuc ln nhau v kinh t khng ngn cn hai cuc chin tranh th gii trong th k hai
mi, v ngay c ngy nay cc cng quc ln khng th c tin cy t c s cho mi
quyt nh v ha bnh v chin tranh ln nhng cn nhc kinh t. Ngi ta c th tng
tng Trung Quc tn cng mt i Loan c u c c lp bt chp cc hu qu kinh t kh
d. Cc cuc chin tranh ca M Iraq v Afghanistan khng chnh xc l mt mi li cho
nn kinh t M. C con ngi ln cc quc gia u khng sng ch bng bnh m. Ch ngha
dn tc, danh d, ni s, v nhng xc cm con ngi khc, cng nh nhng tnh ton v
quyn lc, nh hnh ng x ca cc quc gia ht nh chng nh hnh ng x ca dn chng
nhng ngi sng trong quc gia y.
52
Quan im chung rng khng th c chin tranh v lnh th, bi v lnh th khng cn
quan trng na trong thi i c s ha ca s ph thuc ln nhau v kinh t, cng ng
nghi ng. Ta ch cn ng ti s trin khai qun s ca cc quc gia nh Trung Quc, Nga, n
, v Pakistan thy, i vi h, lnh th qu thc rt quan trng. Trung Quc khng
khng rng vic khi phc li v bo tn tnh ton vn lnh th ca n bao gm Ty Tng,
Hng Kng, v i Loan l li ch ct li, cng nh s kim sot cc ti nguyn khong
sn v cc ln tu bin Bin ng. Cc cuc chin tranh c tin hnh v c th li
c tin hnh trn vng bin gii tranh chp gia n v Trung Quc ti Arunachal
Pradesh, gia n v Pakistan Kashmir, v trn cc bin gii lnh th ca Georgia.
Ngi Nga i hi Crimea Ukraina v Bc Cc chc s l ch tranh chp trong tng lai.
Vn ca mt nc Kurdistan c lp li ko Iraq, Th Nh K, v Syria vo cc tranh chp
lnh th. V tt nhin c tranh chp lnh th gia Israel v Palestine, m dn n bn cuc
chin tranh trong qu kh v c th li nh th.
Chng ta c th t lng tin ca mnh vo v kh ht nhn duy tr ha bnh gia cc
cng quc ln? C nhng ngi ngh nh vy, v mt s ngi thm ch cn gi v
trang ton b cc quc gia trn th gii vi v kh ht nhn nh mt cch m bo ha
bnh th gii. Nhng ha bnh ht nhn c v cn t tin cy hn ha bnh dn ch. C th
tng tng hai cng quc ht nhn tin hnh mt cuc chin tranh quy c nghim ngt.
Thc ra, chnh xc l mt cuc chin tranh nh vy m c Trung Quc ln Hoa K ang chi
tiu hng trm t la chun b. n v Pakistan hng ngy chun b mt cuc chin
tranh quy c trn Kashmir, bt chp cc kho v kh ht nhn ca h. Trong cc th k mi
by, mi tm, v mi chn, cc cng quc ln tin hnh nhiu cuc chin tranh hn ch
v cc mc ch hn ch m khng tm cch hy dit ln nhau. S khng khip ca v kh ht
nhn cng chng l mt m bo ng tin cy chng li vic s dng chng. Trong Chin
tranh Lnh cc nh lnh o th gii ni thng xuyn v kh nng ca chin tranh ht
nhn hn chng ta c th mun nh. George C. Marshall kh knh ni v quan trng th
no nhng ngi Soviet hiu rng Hoa K s thc s s dng bom nguyn t chng li
h trong trng hp chin tranh.58 Gn cui Chin tranh Triu Tin, Dwight Eisenhower
cnh co mt cch dt khot nhng ngi Trung Quc rng ng ta s khng b gii hn bi
bt c tha thun qun t no lin quan n vic s dng v kh ht nhn, v ng bnh
lun cho cc c vn ring ca ng ta rng s tp trung ln ca binh lnh Trung Quc tr thnh
mt mc tiu tt cho loi v kh ny.59 Kennedy d tnh trin vng ca chin tranh ht
53
nhn trong khng hong Berlin nm 1961 v trong khng hong tn la Cuba nm tip theo.
V y mi ch l cc lnh o M. Khrushchev v Mao thng ni v chin tranh ht
nhn mc d nh mt phin bn cc oan hn ca chin tranh quy c.
im ct yu khng phi l cc yu t ny l khng quan trng i vi ha bnh. Tt c
chng u ng gp theo cch no cho vic cn tr cc cng quc ln khi tham gia
chin tranh. Nhng chng c ng tin cy khi thiu th tri ca M, hay chng ha ra cng
bt lc trong ngn chn chin tranh nh chng l nm 1914? Cch tt nht o lng liu
chng ta t mt thi i mi ca ha bnh l ng x ca cc quc gia. Nu gi nh ng
l cc quc gia v cc dn tc c x hi ha yu ha bnh v ght chin tranh, th
cc quc gia trn th gii u gii tr qun b mt cch c h thng. Nhng h khng. Ch
Chu u ang gii tr qun b. Hoa K, Trung Quc, n , Nga, v Nht Bn, cng nh rt
ng cc cc cng quc nh hn, bao gm Brazil, Iran, v Th Nh K, vn sn sng chi cc
mn tin ln chun b cho chin tranh. Ci ngn cn h s dng nhng v kh chng li
nhau khng phi l lng tm hay thng mi, m l s phn b quyn lc trn th gii m s
phn b lm cho thnh cng l ht sc him c kh nng. Gi nh s phn b quyn lc
thay i, gi nh c s dch chuyn thc s trong s cn bng quyn lc theo hng bnh
ng ln hn, th cc cng quc ln v ang ln ny c th theo ui cc chnh sch tham
vng hn bi v chin tranh s l mt la chn c th thc hin c.
Giai on ha bnh m chng ta c hng ch di hn hai thp nin so vi thi k ha
bnh ko di t 1871 n 1914. Hai mi nm thm l khng cho chng ta kt lun
rng chng ta ri khi lch s nhn loi i vo mt thi i mi ca ha bnh vnh cu.
Thay vo , chng ta phi ng n cc hon cnh c bit m khin cho ha bnh l c th,
n cc nhn t m c th thay i d dng v gy ra s tan v ca ha bnh, nh xy ra
thng xuyn n vy sut lch s.
54
CI G N TIP SAU
57
58
sau Hoa K v Lin minh u chu, EU. Nhng trong khi Hoa K, c, Nht Bn, v cc
cng quc khc c GDP trn u ngi hn 40.000 USD, cn GDP u ngi ca Trung
Quc hn 4.000 USD mt cht, xp hng ngang vi mc nh Angola, Algeria v Belize. Cho
d cc d bo lc quan c ng, vo nm 2030 GDP trn u ngi ca Trung Quc s vn
ch l mt na ca Hoa K, xp n i loi cng mc ca Slovenia v Hy Lp ngy nay.
iu ny s gy ra mt tnh th c nht v mt lch s.61 Trong qu kh cc nn kinh t
ln nht v p o nht trn th gii cng l giu nht. iu chc chn ng trong
cc k nguyn thng tr ca Anh v M. V cc h qu bt ngun t im ny. Cc quc gia,
m nhn dn ca h l nhng ngi thng cuc hin nhin nh vy trong h thng kinh t
tng i t do, c t s cm d theo ui cc bin php bo h v c nhiu khuyn khch
gi cho h thng c m. Cho nn d h chim v th thng tr, h s dng v th thng
tr ca mnh theo cch cho php cc quc gia khc cng dn dn tr nn giu c.
Cc nh lnh o Trung Quc, tuy vy, c th phi i mt vi mt tp khc ca cc vn
v s cm d. Vi t cch nhng ngi ng u ca mt nc ngho hn v vn ang
pht trin, h c th t ra t sn sng hn m cc khu vc ca nn kinh t ca h. H bt
u ng ri mt s khu vc i vi cnh tranh nc ngoi v chc s ng cc khu vc khc
trong tng lai. p lc tm cc cng vic c tr cao hn cho nhn dn h vt khi
ngho kh bc vo mt tng lp ln hn c thu nhp trung bnh thp c th dn h n
bo h mt s ngnh cng nghip no to cc vic lm y. Mt Trung Quc bo h hn s
khng l tai ha cng chng l khng c tin l. Nhiu quc gia tri qua cc giai on bo
h trong qu trnh pht trin kinh t ca h. Hoa K chc chn th. Vn l, giai on
bo h ca Trung Quc c th trng vi s i ln ca n thng tr nn kinh t ton cu.
s l khng c tin l. Hoa K rt bo h trong na sau ca th k mi chn, nhng khi n
dn dn tr thnh nn kinh t thng tr th gii, n dn dn b ri ch ngha bo h bi v
n c th kim c nhiu tin hn trong mt mi trng t do thng mi. Nc Anh
cng chuyn mt cch tng t t ch ngha bo h sang thng mi t do khi nn kinh t
ca n tr nn thng tr. Trung Quc c th khc.
Ngay c nhng ngi lc quan v s pht trin chnh tr v kinh t ca Trung Quc tin
trt t kinh t t do i hi s bo him no chng li mt kch bn trong Trung
Quc s dng u th ca n hoc o ngc cc chnh sch trc y ca n, hay khng
m cc lnh vc ca nn kinh t m hin nay c bo h mnh. V gi nh n lm nh vy,
62
mt s thay i sang mt th gii a cc m trong din vin chnh, cng nh cc din vin
quan trng khc, c th hoc khng sn sng hay khng c kh nng lm tr ct cho n.
Thch thc s l hon ton ln hn nu s dch chuyn t mt th gii do M chim u
th sang mt th gii a cc dn n mt s gia tng cnh tranh chin lc v xung t gia
cc cng quc ln. Ngc vi ci ta thng nghe, cc h thng a cc v mt lch s
khng c bit n nh, cng chng c bit yn bnh. Chin tranh gia cc cng quc ln
l s c ph bin, nu khng phi l lin tc, trong cc thi k a cc di trong cc th k
mi su, mi by, v mi tm, thi k cui ln n cc im trong mt lot cc cuc
chin tranh tn ph ton u chu tip sau Cch mng Php v kt thc vi s tht bi ca
Napolon Waterloo nm 1815.
Th k th mi chn ng ch v hai qung thi gian ha bnh gia cc cng quc
ln, mi qung ko di ba mi tm nm v bn mi ba nm. Ha bnh b ngt qung,
tuy vy, bi cc cuc chin tranh ln gia cc cng quc ln: Chin tranh Crime nm 1853
v mt chui cc cuc chin tranh gia Ph v cc lng ging ca n cc cuc chin tranh
thng nht c ln n cc im trong Chin tranh PhpPh nm 187071. Cc nh l
lun quan h quc t thng coi cc cuc chin tranh ny nh nhng s nhiu lon nh trong
mt th k mt khc kh yn bnh, nhng chng l rt ln v tn km. Chin tranh Crime
l mt cuc chin tranh th gii mini ko theo hn mt triu lnh Nga, Php, Anh, v Th
Nh K, cng nh cc lc lng t chn quc gia khc, v lm cht gn mt na triu lnh
chin u v lm nhiu ngi b thng hn. Trong Chin tranh Php Ph mi by nm
sau, hai quc gia cng nhau a gn hai triu lnh ra mt trn, m trong s gn na triu
b git cht hoc b thng. Loi chin tranh ngy nay s khng c coi nh mt nhiu
lon nh trong mt th k mt khc kh yn bnh.
Cc nh l lun quan h quc t vi s tru mn nhn li s cn bng quyn lc u
chu tip sau s thng nht c. C l qu nhiu tru mn. ng, c ha bnh gia cc
cng quc ln trong bn thp nin, nhng giai on y c c trng bi s cng thng
v tranh ua gia tng, v s s kinh hong chin tranh, v mt s gia tng hng lot v v
trang c trn b v trn bin tt c ln n nh im trong chin tranh tn ph v cht chc
nht m loi ngi bit n lc . Ngay c khi cn bng quyn lc c duy tr, khng
ch bi ngoi giao thn i m c bi trin vng lun hin din ca i u qun s. Nh nh
khoa hc chnh tr Robert W. Tucker nhn xt, S n nh v s iu nh vy vi t
65
Chng ta bit mt th chc chn: mt Trung Quc khng b kim sot bi sc mnh M
s l mt Trung Quc khc vi mt nc phi lo ngi v sc mnh M. Nu Bc Kinh ngy
nay khng ng x mt cch hung hng hn vi Nht Bn, hay n , hay cc quc gia ng
Nam , m vi h n c cc tranh chp, th y khng phi l bi v Trung Quc vn d th
ng v thn trng. c nhng thi k trong lch s ca n khi Trung Quc tin hnh cc
hnh ng qun s, ngay c trong cc tnh hung khi c may khng thun li cho n th d,
chng li cc lc lng M Triu Tin nm 1950. ng hn, l bi v cc cng quc
c sc mnh ca M ym tr. Gi nh sc mnh M b b khi phng trnh , ngi
Trung Quc s tnh ton khc. Cc quc gia khc cng vy. Ngy nay h va lng cng
li cc mu tham vng hn ca Trung Quc, Bin ng v nhng ni khc, bi v h
bit Hoa K ng h h. Trung Quc, khng ngc nhin, ang tng cng sc mnh
hi qun ca n trong mt n lc lm gim vai tr ny ca M. Cc quan chc M t cho
l b bi ri bi s tng cng lc lng hi qun ca Trung Quc. H i s minh bch
ln hn v cc nh ca Trung Quc. H cng c th hi v sao mt con h li mc rng.
y l ng x bnh thng ca cc cng quc ln ang ln. N ch c v khc thng bi v
trt t th gii M cho n hin nay ngn cn cc xu hng t nhin ny ca cc cng
quc ln.
Cng ng th vi Nga v cc lng ging ca n. S coi thng Moscow lin tc cc
quc gia Baltic, Caucasus, v ng u nh rt nhiu vo s thc rng cc quc gia ny c
mt ng minh hng mnh ng h h. Nu thiu sc mnh M, Nga s b cm d hn rt
nhiu bt cc nc lng ging ca n phi thch nghi vi cc mong mun ca Moscow, v
h s b xi gic hn rt nhiu ng thun. Nu Putin, ngi tng gi s sp ca Lin
X l tai ha a chnh tr ln nht ca th k hai mi, tin ng ta c th khi phc n mt
cch chc chn, liu ng ta c cng li s cm d? ng ta s dng ri mi cng c tr lc
lng qun s nng lng, thng mi, s ng h cc chnh tr gia v cc ng a cc
nc Soviet trc y vo di nh hng ca Moscow cng nhiu cng tt. Trong mt
trng hp ng ta s dng v lc, chng li Goergia nm 2008, cng chng chc l ng ta
dng qun ca mnh khng ti Tbilisi gi nh ng ta khng b Hoa K v NATO lm
nht ch.
Lu iu ny khng phi l quy cc ng c ti li cho cc nh lnh o Trung
Quc hay Nga. l ti cho s bnh thng. Tt c cc cng quc ln u p li cc
c hi v cc rng buc trong h thng quc t. K c Hoa K. Khi sc mnh M tng dn
67
vo cui th k mi chn, cc tham vng ca n cng tng dn. Trong th k hai mi, Hoa
K tin hnh mt chnh sch can thip tch cc hn sau khi Lin X sp so vi n
tin hnh sut phn ln Chin tranh Lnh. Sau 1989 cc cuc can thip qun s ca M
nc ngoi tr nn thng xuyn hn v xy ra cc phn ca th gii m trc
b cm vo do s xa cch Chin tranh Lnh.
Chng ta dn dn tr nn quen vi cuc sng trong trt t M n mc chng ta c l
qun mt cc quc gia ng x th no khi chng ginh c sc mnh. Sc mnh tng ln
lm thay i cc quc gia. N lm thay i cc tham vng ca h, thc ca h v bn thn
mnh, v thm ch nh ngha ca h v cc li ch ca h. N cng c mt cch lm l r
ra cc tnh cht c trng m c th b nhn chm hoc t r rt khi h cn yu hn. Ly
mt cng quc thn thin, nh Php. Ngy nay n l mt cng quc trung bnh nhn t vi
mt chnh sch i ngoi kh kho lo. Hu ht cc lng ging u chu ca n coi n nh hi
kiu cng v ch k, nhng iu l c th dung th c bi v n chc chn khng nguy
him. Nhng Php s th no vi t cch mt siu cng? Liu cc nt c trng m ngy
nay ngi ta thy ch gy kh chu hay gy ci c tr thnh c vn hn khng? Khi Php
l mt trong hai hay ba cng quc mnh nht th gii, di triu Louis XIV trong th k
mi by v u th k mi tm, v di thi Napolon trong cui th k mi tm v u
th k mi chn, n hai ln th chnh phc con ng tr thnh b ch u chu (v
hai ln tht bi). C th mt siu cng dn ch Php ca ngy mai s theo ui mt chnh
sch i ngoi khim tn, kim ch, nhng nu nh th, s l mt s d thng lch s. Cc
siu cng dn ch cng c th y tham vng, nh Hoa K chng t mt cch tha thi.
im ct yu l sc mnh lm thay i cc quc gia, v i khi rt t ngt. C c v Nht
Bn l kh nhn t nh cc quc gia c sc mnh va phi hoc t. Trong cc th k mi
by v mi tm, c bun ng c bit n nh x s ca cc nh th v cc nh t
tng.70 Trc thi hin i ha di thi Minh Tr ca n, Nht Bn l mt quc gia n
dt m ch ct cc mi lin h vi th gii bn ngoi v chng e da ai. Th m c
hai ph by mt tp cc tnh cht khc hn khi chng tr nn mnh, thng nht v tch cc
trn sn khu th gii.
Bi v nhng thay i v sc mnh tng i lm thay i cc tham vng quc gia v
lm thay i cc rng buc, mt s quay tr li tnh a cc s lm thay i c tnh ca chnh
sch i ngoi ca mi cng quc ln. Cc quc gia m sc mnh ca n tng ln trong mi
quan h tng i (vi quc gia khc) s ph by cc tham vng bnh trng xng vi nh
68
69
73
khc? Vic thiu lc lng qun s c hp php ha khin cho ngy cng kh bo v
cc nguyn tc ct li ca trt t khai phng chng li nhng thch thc khng th trnh khi.
Bi hc ca th k hai mi, c l b qun trong th k hai mi mt, l, nu ta mun
mt trt t khai phng hn, th c th khng c ci thay th cho cc quc gia t do hng mnh
xy dng v bo v n. Trt t quc t khng phi l mt s tin ha; n l mt s p t.
N l mt s thng tr ca mt tm nhn i vi cc tm nhn khc trong trng hp ny, s
thng tr ca cc nguyn tc t do ca hot ng kinh t, hot ng chnh tr trong nc, v
cc quan h quc t trn cc nguyn tc khc, khng t do. N s ko di ch vi iu kin l
nhng ngi p t n vn c nng lc bo v n. y l mt thc t khng thoi mi i
vi nhng ngi theo ch ngha quc t t do. Chng ta thch tin rng mt trt t quc t t
do tn ti bi v n ng v cng bng v khng ch cho chng ta m cho tt c mi ngi.
Chng ta thch hnh dung rng s chp nhn mt trt t khai phng l t nguyn hay, cn tt
hn, l sn phm ca cc lc lng t nhin, ch khng phi l vic s dng quyn lc. l
v sao s Kt thc ca Lch s l mt lun hp dn n vy i vi nhiu ngi, v
vn th thm ch sau khi b cc s kin lm mt uy tn. L lun v s tin ha khng th
trnh khi c ngha l khng c i hi no p t trt t khai phng. N s n thun xy
ra. iu ny gii quyt s m h, tnh nc i o c v cc thch thc thc tin v ti
chnh ca vic p t n v bo v vic p t n.
Cng c mt gi nh c gn vo th gii quan Khai minh ca chng ta, l c mt
mi lin kt tt yu gia trt t khai phng v s kt thc ca ch ngha dn tc, v thm ch
ca bn thn quc gia. S tng ln ca cc nh ch siu quc gia v mt cm gic th gii
ch ngha i din cho s tin b theo hng mt trt t khai phng hon ho hn. Nhng nu
gi nh ny sai th sao? Nu mt trt t c c trng bi ha bnh, dn ch, v thnh vng
li ph thuc vo cc quc gia c bit duy tr n, th sao? Ngi theo ch ngha quc t
Theodore Roosevelt l l cng vy nm 1918, trong phn ng li cc tm nhn siu dn tc
ch ngha ca thi ng. Chng ta hy t chi hy b ch ngha dn tc, ng ni. Ngc
li, chng ta hy t c s cho mt ch ngha quc t khn ngoan v thc tin trn mt ch
ngha dn tc lnh mnh v nng nhit.77 S tin b khai phng chn chnh c th gn, mt
cch nghch l, vi khi nim li ging ny ca quc gia, sn sng s dng sc mnh ca n,
cng chung vi cc quc gia khc, duy tr mt trt t m ch c th tim cn n nhng
khng bao gi t c l tng khai phng quc t. Chnh khi chng ta thc s th t
74
75
CHNG TA C TH THY RI
76
77
83
Nu chng ta o kim v th tng i ca M ngy nay, tht quan trng nhn ra rng
bc tranh ny ca qu kh l mt o nh. chng bao gi c mt thi nh vy. Chng ta c
xu hng hi tng v ngm li cc nm u ca Chin tranh Lnh nh mt thi khc ca s
thng tr ton cu y ca M. khng c g thuc loi . Hoa K hon thnh nhng
vic v i l thng trong thi k : K hoch Marshall, lin minh NATO, Lin Hip Quc,
v h thng kinh t Bretton Woods tt c nh hnh th gii chng ta bit ngy nay. Th
nhng i vi mi thnh qu ln u Chin tranh Lnh, c t nht mt s tht bi, mt s
thoi tro s ngang vy.
Trong cc nm di thi Truman, l chin thng ca Cch mng Cng sn Trung
Quc nm 1949, m cc quan chc M coi l mt tai ha cho cc li ch ca M trong
khu vc v qu thc t ra rt tn km; nu khng g khc, n l nhn t chnh khuyn
khch Bc Triu Tin tn cng min Nam nm 1950. Nhng Hoa K bt lc ngn chn
n. Nh Dean Acheson tng kt, kt qu bo im g ca ni chin Trung Quc t
ra nm ngoi tm kim sot ca Hoa K, sn phm ca cc lc lng m t nc ny
th nh hng nhng khng th.90 Khi chin thng ca Trung Quc c mau
chng tip sau bng cc cuc ni dy chng s kim sot Ty phng ng Dng,
Acheson li nhn xt rng cc s kin ngoi tm kim sot ca chng ta ang diu
hnh trn lc a chu.91 Mt nm sau th n cuc tn cng ca Bc Triu tin ln Nam
Triu Tin mt cch bt ng v khng c (M) chun b, v s can thip ca M, m, sau
hn ba mi lm ngn ngi M cht v gn mt trm ngn b thng, li tnh hnh hu
nh chnh xc nh trc chin tranh. C l tin xu nht trong cc tin n trong nm 1949:
ngi Soviet c c bom nguyn t v s chm dt c quyn ht nhn m trn chin
lc qun s v vic lp ngn sch quc phng ca M da vo.
Mt nm sau, nm 1950, NSC 68, ti liu chin lc ni ting cnh bo v l hng
ngy cng tng gia sc mnh qun s ca M v cc cam kt chin lc ton cu ca n.
Nu cc xu hng hin hnh tip tc, n tuyn b, th kt qu s l mt s suy sp nghim
trng v sc mnh ca th gii t do so snh tng i vi Lin X v cc ch hu ca n.
Tnh ton vn v sc sng ca h thng ca chng ta, ti liu tuyn b, trong cnh
him nguy ln hn t trc n nay trong lch s ca chng ta.92 Douglas MacArthur, trnh
by bi pht biu chnh trc i Hi Quc gia ca ng Cng Ha nm 1952, than vn
s thay i gy hong s ca cn cn quyn lc th gii, gnh nng gia tng ca cc cam
84
85
Li ln na, s tht lch s l phc tp hn. Trong ba thp nin u tin sau Chin tranh
Th gii II, phn ln th gii khng ngng m Hoa K. H khng tm cch noi gng
n, v h khng c bit hi lng v cch n c x trong cng vic quc t. ng, cc
phng tin truyn thng i chng M ph bin vn ha M, nhng n ph bin cc
hnh nh m khng lun lun lm p mt. Trong cc nm 1950 th gii c th xem cc
hnh nh c truyn hnh v Joseph McCarthy v s sn lung nhng ngi cng sn B
Ngoi giao v Hollywood. Phim nh M m t ch ngha tun th t bn ch ngha gy
nght th ca vn ha cng ty M mi. Cc tiu thuyt bn chy nht nh The Ugly American
(Ngi M Xu x) v ln bc tranh v s c hip v tnh th l M. c cc cuc chin
v phn bit trong cc nm 1950 v 1960, cc hnh nh c truyn ton cu v nhng ngi
da trng ph nh hc sinh da en v cnh st th ch cn ngi biu tnh. (Chng ti cng
tng th na.) Ch ngha phn bit chng tc ca M trn thc t hy hoi hnh nh
ton cu M, Dulles s, c bit trong ci c gi l Th gii Th ba.99 Cui cc nm
1960 v u cc nm 1970 n lt cuc ni lon Watts, cc v m st Martin Luther King Jr.
v Robert Kennedy, v bn git (ngi biu tnh i hc) Kent State, ri n v tai ting
Watergate lm lung lay chnh ph. y khng phi l cc loi hnh nh c th lm cho th
gii yu mn Hoa K, khng quan trng l c bao nhiu phim Jerry Lewis v Woody Allen
c chiu cc rp phim Paris.
Phn ln th gii cng chng thy chnh sch i ngoi M c bit hp dn trong cc
nm . Eisenhower ao c c c mt s ngi cc nc b p bc ny thch thay
cho cm ght chng ta, nhng vic CIA sp t cc cuc lt Mohamadd Mossadegh
Iran v Jacobo rbenz Guatemala khng gip c (cho vic ).100 Nm 1957 nhng
ngi biu tnh tn cng on xe h tng ca ph Tng thng Venezuela, h vang,
Nixon ct i! Ra y, ch! Chng tao khng qun Guatemala!101 Nm 1960,
Khrushchev lm nhc Eisenhower bng cch hy b cuc gp thng nh khi mt my
bay trinh thm M b bn ri Nga. Mun hn trong nm , trn ng cho mt cuc ving
thm thin ch n Tokyo, Eisenhower phi quay li gia chuyn bay khi chnh ph Nht
Bn cnh bo n khng th m bo s an ton cho ng i li cc sinh vin phn i ch
ngha quc M.
Nhng ngi dn ch k v ca Eisenhower lm n kh hn mt cht. John F.
Kennedy v v ng ta c yu mn trong mt thi gian, nhng nh sng rc ca M phai
i sau v m st ng. S xm ln ca Lyndon Johnson vo Cng ha Dominic nm 1965 b
86
K t nhin hin ra l siu cng c nht ca th gii. Th nhng ngay c khi Hoa K
khng thnh cng mt cch r rt n th no trong gii quyt nhiu vn ton cu
nghim trng. Nhng ngi M thng Chin tranh vng Vnh, m rng NATO sang
pha ng, cui cng mang li ha bnh cho nhng ngi Balkan, sau nhiu s mu, v,
sut hu ht cc nm 1990, dn phn ln th gii i theo ng thun Washington v kinh
t. Nhng vi trong s nhng thnh cng ny bt u lm sng t v snh c vi nhng
tht bi ng k. ng thun Washington bt u sp vi khng hong ti chnh chu
nm 1997, ni cc n thuc ca M c coi mt cch rng ri l sai lm v gy thit hi.
Hoa K tht bi ngng hay hay lm chm ng k cc chng trnh v kh ht nhn ca
Bc Triu Tin v Iran, bt chp vic tuyn b i tuyn b li nh ca n lm vy.
Nhng bin php trng pht c p t chng Iraq ca Sadam Hussein c l v ch v,
vo cui thp nin, sp . Hoa K, v th gii, chng lm g ngn nga nn dit
chng Rwanda, mt phn bi v mt nm trc Hoa K b ui khi Somalia sau mt
s can thip qun s tht bi. Mt trong nhng n lc quan trng nht ca Hoa K trong cc
nm 1990 l n lc ng h mt s chuyn i nc Nga huSoviet sang nn dn ch
v ch ngha t bn th trng t do. Nhng bt chp vic cung cp hng t la v v s li
khuyn v kin chuyn mn, Hoa K thy cc s kin Nga mt ln na li ngoi tm
kim sot ca n.
Cc nh lnh o M, ngay c trong thi c cho l hong kim ca u th ton cu ca
n, cng chng thnh cng hn ngy nay cht no gii quyt vn IsraelPalestin.
Ngay c vi mt nn kinh t hng thnh v mt tng thng rt c yu mn, st sng lm
vic t mt s ha gii, chnh quyn Clinton v tay khng. Nh nh m phn ha
bnh Trung ng Aaron David Miller k li, Bill Clinton quan tm nhiu hn v v
u t nhiu thi gian v nng lng hn vo ha bnh ArabIsrael trong mt thi k di hn
bt c ngi tin nhim no ca ng, ng c c nhng ngi Israel ln nhng ngi
Palestin ngng m v nh gi cao, ng cn t chc ba cuc hp thng nh trong
vng su thng v [] tht bi trong mi cuc.121 Nhim k ca Clinton kt thc vi s
v ca m phn ha bnh v s bt u ca intifada [phong tro ni dy] ca ngi Palestin.
Ngay c s c dn chng a thch l kh hiu i vi Hoa K trong cc nm 1990.
Nm 1999, Samuel P. Huntington gn nhn siu cng c n cho Hoa K, b cm ght
mt cch rng ri khp a cu v ng x xm phm, can thip, bc lt, n phng, b
quyn, o c gi ca n. B trng Ngoi giao Php ch bai siu cnghyperpower
91
92
Trt t hai cc ca Chin tranh Lnh hn ch hn bi v nhiu quc gia b kha cng
nhc vo phe Ty phng hay phe Soviet. Cc quc gia trong Phong tro Khng Lin Kt v
Php Gaullist sng qua Chin tranh Lnh vng vy lch t do khi s tri buc chnh
sch i ngoi ny. Cc trt t th gii a cc cng rng buc hn. Cc cng quc ln cn
phi cn trng khng lm bt c th g m c th c v e da cc cng quc ln khc,
khng dn ti chin tranh. Cc cng quc nh hn b rng buc, v mi cng quc ln
mun tr nn chi phi bn trong phm vi nh hng ca ring mnh l phn ca nh
ngha v mt cng quc ln v cc cng quc nh trong qu o ca h khng c
php tin hnh cc hnh ng m c th xi gic xung t gia cc cng quc ln, nh
Serbia lm trong vic chm ngi Chin tranh Th gii I. Trong mt trt t n cc, cc
cng quc nh hn c hng s c lp ln hn bi v siu cng c th, nu n chn,
ngn chn cc cng quc ln khu vc khi vic p bc h.
Cho nn khng phi l mt du hiu ca im yu nu nhiu quc gia hn c nhiu
quyn t do hnh ng hn trong trt t hin hnh. S o thnh cng ca trt t khng phi l
liu Hoa K c th bo mi ngi phi lm ci g hay khng. M l bn thn trt t s m
rng dn ch, thnh vng, v an ninh c duy tr c hay khng. Quyn t do v s c lp
ln hn ca Brazil trong chnh sch i ngoi c th l mt du hiu thnh cng ca trt t.
Quyn t do ln hn ca Iran ch to v kh ht nhn c th l ci bo hiu s tht bi ca
n.
Ngy nay Hoa K thiu nng lc t c ci n mun trong nhiu vn , nhng
iu ny khng ngn cn n c c ng nhiu thnh cng, v phi chu ng nhiu tht bi
nh trong qu kh. Cho d c bn ci, Hoa K Iraq thnh cng hn Vit Nam. N
khng c kh nng kim ch cc tham vng ht nhn ca Iran ng nh n khng th trong
cc nm 1990, nhng n thit lp mt mng li ton cu chng ph bin [ht nhn] hiu
qu hn thng qua n lc ca hai chnh quyn [M]. Cc n lc ca n nh bt r v tiu
dit al Qaeda thnh cng xut sc, c bit khi so snh vi nhng tht bi ph hy cc
mng li khng b trong cc nm 1990 nhng tht bi ln n nh im trong cc cuc
tn cng 11 thng Chn 2001. Kh nng dng cc my bay khng ngi li (drone) l mt
tin b so vi cc loi v kh tn la hnh trnh v tn cng bng my bay m c
dng nhm vo bn khng b v cc phng tin trong cc thp nin trc. Trong lc ,
cc ng minh ca M Chu u vn khe mnh; khng phi l li ca Hoa K rng bn
thn Chu u c v yu hn trc. Cc ng minh ca M Chu c th cho rng tr
93
tho hn, u t vo cc cng ngh mi hn, thc y cch mng truyn thng, ct ta thm
ht chnh ph, tt c nhng th gip to ra s tin b hng nm v nng sut.127 L c
th tng tng rng nhng ngi M cng c kh nng i ph vi thch thc kinh t
mi nht ny na.
Cng hp l cho rng cc quc gia khc, nh trong qu kh, s vp phi nhng kh
khn ca ring h. Chng c quc gia no trong cc quc gia hin ang hng s thn k kinh
t m khng c vn . Brazil, n , Th Nh K, v Nga, tt c u c lch s gp ghnh
m lch s gi con ng pha trc s khng n gin l mt con ng i ln trn tru.
C mt cu hi thc t liu m hnh chuyn quyn Trung Quc, m c th rt hiu qu trong
a ra mt s quyt nh v nn kinh t trong ngn hn, c th linh hot trong di hn
cho php thch nghi vi mt mi trng kinh t, chnh tr v chin lc quc t thay i hay
khng.
Tm li, c th l nhiu hn s may mn m cho php Hoa K trong qu kh vt qua
cc cuc khng hong v ni ln mnh hn v khe khon hn cc quc gia khc trong khi
cc i th khc nhau ca n vp ng. V c th l nhiu hn iu m tng n thun
tin rng n s lm vy ln na.
NHNG C MT s nguy him. l gia chng, trong khi quc gia tip tc vt ln, nhng
ngi M c th thuyt phc chnh mnh rng s suy sp qu thc l khng th trnh khi,
hoc rng Hoa K c th ly mt thi gian tm ngng cc trch nhim ton cu ca n trong
khi dn dp nh mnh ngn np. i vi nhiu ngi M, vic chp nhn s suy sp c th
cung cp mt li thot d chu khi cc gnh nng o c v vt cht m nng ln h
t Chin tranh Th gii II. Nhiu ngi c th c ao mt cch v thc quay tr li cch
cc th xy ra trong nm 1900, khi Hoa K giu, hng mnh, v khng c trch nhim
v trt t th gii. Mi ng vin tng thng k t cui Chin tranh Lnh ha bng cch ny
hay cch khc tp trung nhiu s ch hn vo cng vic trong nc v bt s dnh lu
ca M nc ngoi, nhng li ph v li ha hu nh ngay lp tc khi nhm chc.
Gi nh c s ca mt tin trnh nh vy l, trt t th gii hin thi s t nhiu vn cn
m khng c sc mnh M (hay ch t, vi sc mnh M t hn nhiu), rng cc quc gia khc
c th phc hi s u oi, hoc n gin rng cc li ch ca trt t th gii l vnh cu v
99
khng i hi s n lc ca bt k ai. ng tic, tuy vy, trt t th gii hin thi cng mong
manh nh n l c nht. Duy tr n l mt cuc u tranh trong mi thp nin v vn s l
mt cuc chin u trong cc thp nin sp ti. Cc tng thng, nhng ngi nhm chc
ch i c kh nng lm t hn, mau chng i mt vi thc t trn tri thng r
rng hn i vi cc tng thng hn l vi cc ng vin tng thng rng duy tr trt t th
gii hin thi i hi s lnh o kin nh ca M v s cam kt lin tc ca M.
100
RT CUC, quyt nh l trong tay nhng ngi M. S suy tn, nh Charles Krauthammer
nhn ngy nay c th gy nhiu thit hi cho cc quc gia hng mnh, hn chng c th
lm trong qu kh. Trong tng lai cc cng ngh mi c th thay i cn cn mt ln na
chng li chng. L c ngu xun ln v ch th bm cht ly qu kh v tin rng nhng
cch c lun lun l i ph vi hon cnh mi. Th gii phi iu chnh, v Hoa K
phi iu chnh, theo ci mi.
Tuy vy, chng ta khng th b m hoc n nh vy bi s thay i n ni khng nhn
ra vi s tht c bn v lu di v quyn lc, v bn cht con ngi, v v cch m lng tin
v quyn lc tng tc vi nhau nh hnh mt trt t th gii. Chng ta cn phi bit lch
s, khng bm vo qu kh, nhng hiu ci g l c nht v thi i ca chng ta. Cho
d cc thiu st ca n, nhng iu bt hnh ca n, th gii do M to ra l mt s d
thng tuyt vi trong lch s nhn loi. Ngy no chng ta c th khng c la chn no
tr nhn n cun i. Ngy nay chng ta thc c mt s la chn.
105
GHI CH
1. Hoa K v Trung Quc nh nhau trong Chin tranh Triu Tin, nhng liu Trung Quc b
ngho kh, mt nm sau khi ni ln t ni chin, c t cch nh mt cng quc ln khi
cn l iu ng ng. Nm 1950, khi GDP trn u ngi ca Hoa K l hn $9.000, ca
Trung Quc l $614, di mc ca Congo thuc B.
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_gdp_per_cap_in_195-economy-gdp-per-capita1950.
2. G. John Ikenberry, The Future of the Liberal World Order, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2011,
p. 58.
3. Xem, chng hn, G. John Ikenberry, Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and
Transformation of the American World Order (Princeton, N.J., 2011), chap. 1.
4. Cm t sheriff min cng c Richard N. Haass to ra; xem Reluctant Sheriff: The
United States After the Cold War (New York, 1997) ca ng. Trch dn l t bi pht biu
chp nhn c ca John Kerry ti Hi ngh Ton quc ca ng Dn ch nm 2004.
5. Gia nm 1898 v 1928, nhng ngi M can thip bng v lc nc ngoi hn hai t
ln, ch yu Ty Bn Cu nhng mt ln Chu u v hai ln ti ng xa xi. Ri, sau
mt thp nin tng i yn tnh, nhng ngi M chin u trong ba cuc chin tranh ln
gia 1941 v 1965 Chin tranh Th gii II, Chin tranh Triu Tin, v Chin tranh Vit
Nam cng cc cuc can thip nh hn Lebanon (1958) v Cng ha Dominican (1965).
Khong gin on sauVit Nam ko di hn mt thp k mt cht, nhng t 1989 n
2011 Hoa K trin khai s lng ln binh lnh chin u hoc tin hnh cc chin dch
m rng v nm bom t trn khng v tn cng tn la trong mi dp khc nhau Panama
(1989), Somalia (1992), Haiti (1994), Bosnia (199596), Kosovo (1999), Afghanistan (2001),
Iraq (1991, 1998, 2003), v, gn y nht, Libya trung bnh mt cuc can thip qun s
ng k i th trong mi hai nm.
6. Hu nh 80 phn trm ngi M tin rng di cc iu kin no , chin tranh l cn thit
t c cng l, so vi 20 phn trm Php, c, , v Ty Ban Nha. Xem thm d
c tin hnh trong cc nm gn y bi Transatlantic Trends, mt d n c t chc
German Marshall Fund of the United States ti tr.
7. Nu gi nh Dean Acheson bo nhn dn M nm 1949, khi NATO ra i, rng binh lnh
M s vn Chu u vo th k hai mi mt, th ng b ui khi chc v ri.
106
8. Geir Lundestad, The United States and Western Europe Since 1945: From Empire by
Invitation to Transatlantic Drift (Oxford, 2005), p. 35.
9. Martin Gilbert, Churchill and America (New York, 2008), pp. 102, 399, 245.
10. John Lewis Gaddis, The Long Peace: Inquiries into the History of the Cold War (Oxford,
1989), p. 65.
11. Xem John Lewis Gaddis, We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History (Oxford, 1998), p.
49.
12. Gaddis, Long Peace, pp. 70, 63.
13. Gaddis, We Now Know, p. 43.
14. c trch trong Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late
Twentieth Century (Norman, Okla., 1993), p. 17.
15. c trch trong John Keane, The Life and Death of Democracy (New York, 2009), p. 573.
16. Ibid.
17. Huntington, Third Wave, p. 40.
18. Ibid., p. 21.
19. Samuel P. Huntington, Will More Countries Become Democratic?, Political Science
Quarterly 99 (Summer 1984); c trch trong Larry Diamond, The Spirit of Democracy
(New York, 2009), p. 10.
20. Huntington, Third Wave, p. 47.
21. Odd Arne Westad, The Global Cold War: Third World Interventions and the Making of Our
Times (Cambridge, U.K., 2009), p. 196.
22. Diamond, Spirit of Democracy, p. 5.
23. Huntington, Third Wave, p. 98.
24. Diamond, Spirit of Democracy, p. 13.
25. Mike Rapport, 1848: Year of Revolution (New York, 2009), p. 409.
26. A. J. P. Taylor, The Course of German History (1945; London, 2001), p. 71.
27. Rapport, 1848, pp. 401, 402.
28. Nh Huntington ch gii nhng pht hin ca Jonathan Sunshine mt cch di dng:
Nhng nh hng bn ngoi Chu u trc 1830 phn dn ch mt cch c bn v v
th lm tr tr s dn ch ha. Gia 1830 v 1930 mi trng bn ngoi l trung lp
v th cng cuc dn ch ha tip din cc nc khc nhau t nhiu theo nhp do s
pht trin kinh t v x hi t ra. Huntington, Third Wave, p. 86.
107
29. Nh Huntington nhn xt, S thiu vng ca Hoa K trong qu trnh s c ngha l
nhng chuyn i sang nn dn ch t hn v mun hn. Ibid., p. 98.
30. Robert Gilpin, U.S. Power and the Multinational Corporation: The Political Economy of
Foreign Direct Investment (New York, 1975), p. 85.
31. Trc gia th k mi chn, Anh, ging cc cng quc thuc a khc, a thch h
thng trng thng ca s thuc a ha v cc th trng ng. Hoa K, t cui th k mi
tm n u th k mi chn, theo ch ngha bo h trong mt n lc nui dng cc
ngnh km pht trin.
32. Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics (Cambridge, U.K., 1983), p. 139.
33. John Kenneth Galbraith, The Affuent Society (1958; New York, 1998), p. 1.
34. Angus Maddison, The World Economy, vol. 1, A Millennial Perspective, and vol. 2,
Historical
Statistics
(Paris,
2007),
1:262
(sn
trn
mng
ti
44. Theodore Roosevelt, thng ip hng nm th hai cho Quc Hi, December 2, 1902, c
trch trong Strobe Talbott, The Great Experiment: The Story of Ancient Empires, Modern
States, and the Quest for a Global Nation (New York, 2008), p. 138; Theodore Roosevelt,
thng ip hng nm th nht cho Quc Hi, December 3, 1901, c trch trong James R.
Holmes, Theodore Roosevelt and World Order: Police Power in International Relations
(Dulles, Va.,2006), p. 69.
45. Theo Ivan Bloch, tng lai ca chin tranh khng phi l nh nhau, m l nn i,
khng phi l git ngi m l s v n ca cc quc gia. Donald Kagan, On the Origins of
War and the Preservation of Peace (New York, 1996), p. 3.
46. Martin Gilbert, The First World War: A Complete History (New York, 2004), p. 12.
47. Cuc chin tranh gia Nga v Nht Bn nm 19045 bng cch no khng c k
n, v hu ht mi ngi thi khng th hnh dung ni v mt cng quc khngu
chu nh mt cng quc ln.
48. Mt s ngi c th l l rng th lng nan an ninhsecurity dilemma gia Hoa K
v Lin X trong sut phn ln Chin tranh Lnh lm ny sinh cuc chy ua v trang.
Qu thc, trong mc no khi nim c to ra m t tnh trng . Th nhng c
l do nghi ng rng ng hc ca mt s tm kim chung cho an ninh to ra s bt an ninh
chung tng thc s c hiu lc. Nh B trng B Quc phng Harold Brown lu
mt cch ti tnh, chnh sch Soviet c v khng thay i theo phn ng vi cc hnh ng
ca M Khi chng ta xy, h xy. Khi chng ta dng, h xy nhng theo mt logic
chin lc khc.
49. Yan Xuetong, Meiguo Baquan yu Zhongguo Anquan [Quyn B ch M v An Ninh ca
Trung Quc] (Tianjin,2000), p. 23.
50. Yan Xuetong, How chna Can Defeat America, New York Times, November 20, 2011.
51. Quan im ny c din t kho nht bi G. John Ikenberry trong rt nhiu sch v tiu
lun, k c trong Liberal Leviathan gn y nht.
52. Robert W. Tucker, Alone or with Others: The Temptations of PostCold War Power,
Foreign Affairs, November/December 1999.
53. V tho lun hay nht v thc t a chnh tr ny, xem William Wohlforth, The Stability of
a Unipolar World, International Security 24 (Summer 1999).
54. Lundestad, United States and Western Europe, p. 160.
55. Yong Deng and Fei-Ling Wang, eds., chna Rising: Power and Motivation in chnese
Foreign Policy (Lanham, Md., 2004), p. 10.
109
56. Andrew Nathan and Bruce Gilley, chnas New Rulers (New York, 2003), p. 206.
57. Fei-Ling Wang, Beijings Incentive Structure: The Pursuit of Preservation, Prosperity, and
Power, trong Deng and Wang, chna Rising, p. 22.
58. Robert J. Donovan, Tumultuous Years: The Presidency of Harry S Truman, 19491953
(Columbia, Mo., 1996), p. 100.
59. Ibid., pp. 52, 51.
60. Diamond, Spirit of Democracy, p. 113.
61. Chng bao gi trong lch s c mt cng quc chi phi ton cu hay kinh t ang ln
m mc sng ca n v thc cht li thp hn mc sng ca cng quc hin trng v thp
hn mc ca nhiu nc khc. Arvind Subramanian, Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of
chnas Economic Dominance (Washington, D.C., 2011), p. 153.
62. Ibid., p. 186.
63. Bremmer, End of the Free Market, p. 150.
64. Ibid., p. 4.
65. Ibid., p. 61.
66. Subramanian, Eclipse, p. 125.
66. Subramanian, Eclipse, p. 125.
67. Bremmer, End of the Free Market, p. 5.
68. Robert W. Tucker, Woodrow Wilson and the Great War: Reconsidering Americas
Neutrality, 19141917 (Charlottesville, Va., 2007), p. 53.
69. Richard N. Haass, The Age of Nonpolarity: What Will Follow U.S. Dominance, Foreign
Affairs, May/June 2008.
70. Mary Fulbrook, History of Germany, 19182000: The Divided Nation (1991; Malden, Mass.,
2002), p. 4.
71. y l mt s nhn thu then cht ca Geoffrey Blainey trong nghin cu ca ng v cc
nguyn nhn ca chin tranh, trong ng nhn thy rng mt th tri hn r rng ca sc
mnh c khuynh hng thc y ha bnh. Chin tranh l mt cuc tranh chp v nhng
s o lng sc mnh. Geoffrey Blainey, The Causes of War (New York, 1988), pp. 11314.
72. G. John Ikenberry, Liberal International Theory in the Wake of 9/11 and American
Unipolarity, bi bo c chun b cho seminar IR Theory, Unipolarity, and September
11thFive Years On, Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt, Oslo, Norway, February 34, 2006.
73. Huntington, Third Wave, p. 29.
74. George F. Kennan, American Diplomacy (1951; Chicago, 1985), p. 95.
110
75. President George H. W. Bush, thng ip cho Quc Hi, March 6, 1991.
76. Reinhold Niebuhr, Moral Man and Immoral Society (1932; New York, 1960), p. 110.
77. Holmes, Roosevelt and World Order, pp. 12930.
78. Derek Chollet and James Goldgeier, America Between the Wars (New York, 2008), p. 318.
Between the Wars (New York, 2008), p. 318.
79. Arch Puddington, Freedom in the World 2010: Erosion of Freedom Intensifies, Freedom
House online, http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=130&year=2010.
80. Trong cc nm 1990, EU ng h cho n 72% cc vn nhn quyn trong i Hi
ng Lin Hip Quc. Trong hai phin i Hi ng gn y t l phn trm so snh c
l 48 v 55%. S gim st ny b lm lu m bi mt s nhy vt trong ng h lp trng
ca Trung Quc trong cng cc cuc b phiu (i Hi ng) t di 50% trong cui cc
nm 1990 ln 74% trong 20078. Nga cng c hng mt s nhy vt tng t v s
ng h. Richard Gowan and Franziska Brantner, A Global Force for Human Rights? An
Audit of European Power at the UN, European Council on Foreign Relations paper,
September 2008.
81. Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery (Hampshire, U.K., 1983), pp.
2089.
82. Paul Kennedy, The Eagle Has Landed, Financial Times, February 2, 2002.
83. G. John Ikenberry, ed., America Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance of Power (Ithaca,
N.Y., 2002), p. 1.
84. c trch trong Jonathan Marcus, America: An Empire to Rival Rome?, BBC News,
January 26, 2004.
85. Phn ca Hoa K trong GDP ton cu l 28 phn trm trong nm 1969; 27 phn trm
trong nm 1979; 27 phn trm trong nm 1989; 28 phn trm trong nm 1999; 27 phn trm
trong nm 2009. Phn ca Chu u gim t 35 phn trm trong nm 1969 xung 26 phn
trm trong nm 2009. Phn ca Chu tng t 13 phn trm trong nm 1969 ln 25 phn
trm trong nm 2009. Nhng phn ca Nht Bn gim t 18 phn trm trong nm 1994
xung khong 9 phn trm. USDA Economic Research Service, Real Historical Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) Shares and Growth Rates of GDP Shares for Baseline
Countries/Regions (in Percent), 19692010 (updated December 22, 2010); GDP table in the
ERS International Macroeconomic Data Set, http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/.
86. Yan, How chna Can Defeat America.
111
87. Con s ny khng bao gm s trin khai Iraq, m ang chm dt, hay lc lng chin u
Afghanistan, m chc l s gim u n trong vi nm ti.
88. USDA Economic Research Service, Real Historical Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Shares
and Growth Rates of GDP Shares for Baseline Countries/Regions (in Percent), 19692010;
GDP table in the ERS International Macroeconomic Data Set,
http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/.
89. Stephen Walt, The End of the American Era, National Interest, NovemberDecember
2011.
90. Donovan, Tumultuous Years, p. 83.
91. Ibid., p. 141.
92. NSC 68: United States Objectives and Programs for National Security (April 14, 1950), Mt
Bo co cho Tng thng c thc hin theo Ch th ca Tng Thng ngy 31, thng Ging,
1950; Donovan, Tumultuous Years, p. 160.
93. Douglas MacArthur, bi pht biu chnh, Hi ngh Ton quc ng Cng Ha, July 7, 1952.
94. Donovan, Tumultuous Years, p. 59; Herbert Parmet, Eisenhower and the American Crusades
(New York, 1972), p. 361.
95. Parmet, Eisenhower, p. 537.
95. Parmet, Eisenhower, p. 537.
96. Stephen E. Ambrose, Eisenhower: Soldier and President (New York, 1991), p. 484.
97. Westad, Global Cold War, p. 184.
98. Joseph S. Nye, The Paradox of American Power: Why the Worlds Only Superpower Cant
Go It Alone (New York, 2003), p. 10.
99. Westad, Global Cold War, p. 135.
100. Ibid., p. 122.
101. Ibid., p. 149.
102. Ibid., p. 152.
103. Ibid.
104. Kennedy nhn thy rng chu Phi nhng ngi mun mt s thay i b n
tng bi tm gng ca Lin X v Trung Quc v tin rng h thng Cng sn nm
c cc b mt v t chc cc ngun lc ca nh nc nhm mang li cho h mt cuc sng
tt p hn. Ibid., pp. 13435.
105. Dulles lo ngi rng cc lng ging chu ca Lin X thy quc gia y trong vng
mt th h pht trin mnh thnh mt cng quc cng nghip ln. Peter W. Rodman,
112
More Precious Than Peace: The Cold War and the Struggle for the Third World (New York,
1994), p. 69.
106. Robert J. McMahon, Introduction: The Challenge of the Third World, trong Empire and
Revolution: The United States and the Third World Since 1945, ed. Peter L. Hahn and Mary
Ann Heiss (Columbus, Ohio, 2001), p. 7.
107. Westad, Global Cold War, p. 93.
108. Elizabeth Cobbs Hoffman, Decolonization, the Cold War, and the Foreign Policy of the
Peace Corps, trong Hahn and Heiss, Empire and Revolution, p. 136.
109. Nh Rodman nhn thy, cc lnh t Th gii Th Ba kch c hai bn chng li nhau,
tm cch c c nhiu nht cho h v cho cc quc gia ca h. H khng phn xt
mt cuc thi v tnh i chng hoc a ra bt c loi phn xt o c no v phn c hnh
ca hai siu cng. Rodman, More Precious Than Peace, p. 73.
110. Westad, Global Cold War, p. 125.
111. Ibid., p. 136.
112. Ibid., p. 196.
113. Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power (1991; New York,
2008), pp. 594, 616.
114. Ibid., p. 635.
115. Ibid., p. 662.
116. Ibid., pp. 698, 701.
117. Walter Isaacson, Kissinger: A Biography (New York, 1992), pp. 697, 696.
118. James Fallows, Containing Japan, Atlantic Monthly, May 1989, p. 40.
119. Michael Crichton, Rising Sun (New York, 1992), p. 349.
120. Chalmers Johnson, Japan: Who Governs? The Rise of the Developmental State (New York,
1995), p. 9.
121. Aaron David Miller, The Much Too Promised Land (New York, 2008), pp. 31014.
122. Samuel P. Huntington, The Lonely Superpower, Foreign Affairs, March/April 1999.
123. Samuel P. Huntington, Why International Primacy Matters, International Security 17, no.
4 (Spring 1993).
124. Walter Lippmann, The Cold War: A Study in U.S. Foreign Policy Since 1945 (New York,
1947), p. 47.
125. Alice Rivlin, tuyn b ti mt tho lun panel v ngn sch quc phng Hoa K, Brookings
Institution, December 22, 2010. cho r, b ku gi ct gim ngn sch quc phng bi
113
v b cm thy tt c cc b phn ca chnh ph phi tr phn cng bng ca mnh trong vic
tm kim cho vic gim n nn.
126. Ti c nhc nh v im ny bi Gary Schmitt, mt hc gi thuc Tng thng v mt
bc c thm quyn v cc Nh sng lp v v hot ng ca chnh ph Hoa K. ng lm vic
ti American Enterprise Institute.
127. Kennedy, Eagle Has Landed.
114
GHI CH V TC GI
ROBERT KAGAN l mt thnh vin cao cp Brookings Institution v mt nh bnh lun
chuyn mc cho t The Washington Post. ng cng l tc gi ca The Return of History and the
End of Dreams, Dangerous Nation, Of Paradise v Power, and A Twilight Struggle. Kagan
phc v ti B Ngoi Giao Hoa K t 1984 n 1988. ng sng Virginia vi v ng v hai
con.
115
116