1

2
2016

IBSU

: 2
: 14 , 1 , 3 , 3
.

60%, -40%.
( 100 ):
1 (40 );
(30 );
(30 )

( 100 ).

, . . 2007

., ., .: , , 2000.

Newbold, P., Carlson, W.L., Thorne, B.: Statistics for Business and Economics, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River. 8-th Edition, 2013

: Excel- Eviews-.
IBSU

IBSU

,
, 50- .

IBSU

=1

IBSU

=1

(Laspeyres Index)

(Paasche Index)

IBSU

2010
100.0
2011
120.0
2012
125.0

2.0
3.0
4.0

50.0
1.0
75.0
1.5
25.0
3.0

2010 =

1002+501
1002+501

2011 =

1003+501.5
1002+501

2012 =

1004+503
1002+501

=1
= 1.5

= 2.2

2010 =

1002+501
1002+501

2011 =

1203+751.5
1202+751

2012 =

1254+253
1252+251

=1
= 1.5

= 2.1

2011 =

1.5
1.0

100 100 = 50%

2011 =

1.5
1.0

100 100 = 50%

2012 =

2.2
1.5

100 100 = 47%

2012 =

2.1
1.5

100 100 = 39%

IBSU

 2
,
.
,

2011 = 50 50 = 50
2012 = 47 39 = 43

IBSU

IQR = X75 _ X25

=

()

()

CV=

IBSU

100


()
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

10.5 3.1 2.9 1.8 4.8 5.5 11.1 5.9 9.6 9.4 12.6 2.7 -3.7 6.2 7.2 6.4 3.3 4.7
()
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

14.6 2.7 -22.0 8.7 5.3 5.5 17.5 28.4 25.1 21.1 31.1 25.8 -15.9 8.1 24.0 9.8 1.9 2.3

.
http://pbo.parliament.ge/media/k2/attachments/Macroeconomic_Forecasts_PBO.pdf
IBSU

IBSU


z .
.

t

Dependent Variable: LOG(RCONS)-LOG(RCONS(-4))
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/10/16 Time: 17:17
Sample (adjusted): 1998Q1 2015Q3
Included observations: 71 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
LOG(YR1)-LOG(YR1(-4)...
IRLRF1-IRLRF1(-4)
LOG(RCONS(-4))
LOG(YR1(-4))
IRLRF1(-4)

-0.088208
0.398643
-0.000153
-0.625221
0.629155
-0.001856

0.298670
0.181015
0.001568
0.103932
0.115656
0.001820

-0.295336
2.202265
-0.097566
-6.015672
5.439879
-1.020147

0.7687
0.0312
0.9226
0.0000
0.0000
0.3114

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.545076
0.510082
0.064807
0.273000
96.66952
15.57620
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

0.041033
0.092590
-2.554071
-2.362859
-2.478032
1.908063

IBSU

IBSU