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Analisys of The Association Between Rainfall and Variables
Analisys of The Association Between Rainfall and Variables
Response
Categor
Variable
y
Yes
No
Rain
Total
Frequenc
Percentag
e
135
170
305
(%)
44.26
55.74
100
And also rainfall data was categorized to four categories as No Rain, Low, Medium and High.
[Type text]
Page 1
Analysis
This categorization was used in 2nd step of building a decision tree.
Rainfall
Category
1
2
3
4
Category
Description
No Rain
Low
Medium
High
Total
Rainfall Range
(mm)
0-1
1.1 - 15
15.1 - 35
>35.1
1
2
3
4
Frequency
2
28
219
56
305
Pressure Range
(Pascal)
1 1005.0 - 1010.2
2 1010.3 - 1011.8
3 1011.9 - 1016.2
Total
Frequenc
y
155
84
66
305
Frequency
Page 2
Frequency
204
66
24
11
305
Analysis
y
1
2
3
4
0.0 - 1.6
1.7 - 4.0
4.1 - 6.2
6.3 - 15.7
Total
70
58
88
89
305
Cloud Amount
Category
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Total
20
18
24
35
42
43
48
53
22
305
Freque
Directio
ncy
(No. of
Categori
Days)
es
CALM
[Type text]
63
Page 3
Analysis
E
ENE
ESE
N
NE
NNE
NNW
NW
S
SE
SSE
SSW
SW
W
WNW
WSW
Total
11
6
5
5
43
11
1
5
4
23
3
1
104
9
2
9
305
Rainfall
Category
occurrence
[Type text]
Total
Page 4
Analysis
No
Yes
2
24
137
7
170
1
2
3
4
Total
0
4
82
49
135
2
28
219
56
305
Test Hypothesis
H0 : Humidity has no effect on the Rainfall occurrence.
H1 : Humidity effects (is associated with) the Rainfall occurrence.
Model
Raw deviance
(1) logit(pi) = + i
(2) logit(pi) =
Corrected deviance
d.f
3
0
23, 5% = 7.82
Deviance (63.994) > 23, 5% (7.82)
Reject H0 (model (2)) at 5% level of significance. This implies that the explanatory variable
humidity is associated with the response variable rainfall occurrence.
Rainfall occurrence
No
Yes
Total
75
51
44
80
33
22
155
84
66
170
135
305
Page 5
Analysis
Test Hypothesis
H0 : Pressure has no effect on the Rainfall occurrence.
H1 : Pressure effects (is associated with) the Rainfall occurrence.
Model
Raw deviance
(1) logit(pi) = + i
(2) logit(pi) =
Corrected deviance
d.f
2
0
22, 5% = 5.99
Deviance (7.499) > 23, 5% (5.99)
Reject H0 (model (2)) at 5% level of significance. This implies that the explanatory variable
pressure is associated with the response variable rainfall occurrence.
4.10 Testing the association between rainfall occurrence and wind speed
Rainfall data and wind speed data were categorized as mentioned in the previous to check
whether any association between rainfall occurrence and wind speed.
4 2 Contingency table for binary response variable (Rainfall) and categorical
explanatory variable (Wind Speed)
Wind speed
Category
1
2
3
4
Total
[Type text]
Rainfall Occurrence
No
Yes
38
32
53
47
170
Total
32
26
35
42
135
Page 6
70
58
88
89
305
Analysis
Test Hypothesis
H0 : Wind Speed has no effect on the Rainfall occurrence.
H1 : Wind Speed effects (is associated with) the Rainfall occurrence.
Model
(1) logit(pi) = + i
(2) logit(pi) =
Raw deviance
(-2 log Lc)
417.694
418.795
Corrected deviance
d.f
3
0
23, 5% = 7.82
Deviance (1.101) < 23, 5% (7.82)
Do not reject H0 at 5% level of significance. This implies that the explanatory variable
pressure is not associated with the response variable rainfall occurrence.
4.11 Testing the association between rainfall occurrence and cloud amount
Rainfall data and cloud amount data were categorized as mentioned in the previous to check
whether any association between rainfall occurrence and cloud amount.
4 2 Contingency table for binary response variable (Rainfall) and categorical
explanatory variable (Cloud Amount)
Cloud amount
Category
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Total
[Type text]
Rainfall Occurrence
No
Yes
18
15
14
21
27
24
19
24
8
170
2
3
10
14
15
19
29
29
14
135
Total
20
18
24
35
42
43
48
53
22
305
Page 7
Analysis
Test Hypothesis
H0 : Cloud amount has no effect on the Rainfall occurrence.
H1 : Cloud amount effects (is associated with) the Rainfall occurrence.
Model
(1) logit(pi) = + i
(2) logit(pi) =
Raw deviance
(-2 log Lc)
388.997
418.795
Corrected deviance
d.f
8
0
28, 5% = 15.5
Deviance (29.798) > 23, 5% (15.5)
Reject H0 at 5% level of significance. This implies that the explanatory variable cloud amount
is associated with the response variable rainfall occurrence.
4.12 Testing the association between rainfall occurrence and wind direction
Rainfall data and wind direction data were categorized as mentioned in the previous to check
whether any association between rainfall occurrence and wind direction.
17 2 Contingency table for binary response variable (Rainfall) and categorical
explanatory variable (wind direction)
Wind Direction
Category
CALM
E
ENE
ESE
N
NE
NNE
NNW
NW
S
SE
SSE
SSW
[Type text]
Rainfall
Occurrence
No
Yes
Total
34
29
63
11
1
5
4
29
7
0
4
1
11
1
1
5
0
1
14
4
1
1
3
12
2
0
6
5
5
43
11
1
5
4
23
3
1
Page 8
Analysis
SW
W
WNW
WSW
Total
53
8
1
3
170
51
1
1
6
135
104
9
2
9
305
Test Hypothesis
H0 : Wind direction has no effect on the Rainfall occurrence.
H1 : Wind direction effects (is associated with) the Rainfall occurrence.
Model
Raw deviance
(-2 log Lc)
(1) logit(pi) = + i
(2) logit(pi) =
390.266
418.795
Corrected deviance
d.f
16
0
216, 5% = 26.28
Deviance (28.529) > 23, 5% (26.28)
Reject H0 at 5% level of significance. This implies that the explanatory variable wind speed is
associated with the response variable rainfall occurrence.
[Type text]
Page 9
Analysis
Rainfall Occurrence
No
Yes
25
27
118
170
Total
3
17
115
135
28
44
233
305
Test Hypothesis
H0 : Temperature has no effect on the Rainfall occurrence.
H1 : Temperature effects (is associated with) the Rainfall occurrence.
Model
(1) logit(pi) = + i
(2) logit(pi) =
[Type text]
Raw deviance
Corrected deviance
d.f
2
0
Page 10
Analysis
22, 5% = 5.99
Deviance (18.355) > 23, 5% (5.99)
Reject H0 at 5% level of significance. This implies that the explanatory variable temperature
is associated with the response variable rainfall occurrence.
[Type text]
Page 11