Oil Demand

11 December 2015
HIGHLIGHTS
Benchmark crudes approached seven-year lows in early December
after OPEC opted to continue producing at will to defend market
share. Unrelenting oversupply in world markets had already
weakened benchmarks during November. ICE Brent was last trading
at $39.77 /bbl with NYMEX WTI several dollars lower at $36.87/bbl.
World demand growth of 1.2 mb/d is forecast in 2016, as first signs
of a slowdown appear. Early indicators for 4Q15 show growth easing
to 1.3 mb/d y-o-y, from a 3Q15 peak of 2.2 mb/d. The resulting annual
growth of 1.8 mb/d for 2015 is led by China, the US, India and
somewhat surprisingly Europe.
Global oil supply inched up 50 kb/d in November to 96.9 mb/d on
slightly higher OPEC crude output. Total supplies stood 1.8 mb/d
above a year ago, with OPEC accounting for the lions share. NonOPEC supply held at 58.5 mb/d in November, but annual growth
slowed to below 300 kb/d from 2.2 mb/d at the start of 2015.
OPEC crude output edged 50 kb/d higher in November to
31.73 mb/d. Record production from Iraq and higher supply from
Kuwait offset losses from African members. The call on OPEC crude
and stock change for 2016 is unchanged from our previous Report at
31.3 mb/d a substantial rise of 1.6 mb/d on this year.
OECD commercial stocks drew for the first time in seven months in
October to stand at 2 971 mb at end-month. Global inventories are
set to keep building at least until late 2016, but at a much slower
pace than observed this year. New and spare storage capacity should
be able to accommodate the projected extra 300 mb of stocks.
Global refinery runs rose by 1.4 mb/d in November to 79.9 mb/d as
the maintenance season drew to a close. Margins in November
remained healthy, though lower in the US, but higher elsewhere, and
still supported by gasoline and naphtha. Product cracks and margins,
however, took a hit early December.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIGHLIGHTS ............................................................................................................................................................................................1
Reality check ..............................................................................................................................................................................................3
DEMAND ...................................................................................................................................................................................................4
Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................4
Global Overview .................................................................................................................................................................................4
OECD .....................................................................................................................................................................................................5
Non-OECD ...........................................................................................................................................................................................9
Heady vehicle sales support strong Chinese gasoline demand growth ........................................................................................ 11
Other Non-OECD...................................................................................................................................................................... 12
SUPPLY .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 15
OPEC crude oil supply .................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Non-OPEC overview ...................................................................................................................................................................... 19
OECD .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 20
North America............................................................................................................................................................................. 20
North Sea ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Non-OECD ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 24
Latin America ............................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Asia .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 24
Africa .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 25
Former Soviet Union .................................................................................................................................................................. 25
OECD STOCKS .................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 28
Global overview ................................................................................................................................................................................ 28
OECD inventory position at end-October and revisions to preliminary data ................................................................. 29
Recent OECD industry stock changes ....................................................................................................................................... 30
OECD Americas .......................................................................................................................................................................... 30
OECD Europe .............................................................................................................................................................................. 31
European stocks diverge on logistical bottlenecks .......................................................................................................................... 32
OECD Asia Oceania ................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Recent developments in Singapore and China stocks ............................................................................................................ 34
PRICES...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 36
Market overview............................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Futures markets ................................................................................................................................................................................ 37
Market activity.............................................................................................................................................................................. 38
Financial regulation...................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Spot crude oil prices........................................................................................................................................................................ 39
Spot product prices ......................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Freight ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 44
REFINING ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 45
Global refinery overview ................................................................................................................................................................ 45
Margins ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
OECD refinery throughput ........................................................................................................................................................... 47
OECD Americas .......................................................................................................................................................................... 48
OECD Europe .............................................................................................................................................................................. 49
OECD Asia Oceania ................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Non-OECD refinery throughput ................................................................................................................................................. 49
With lower oil prices, the Russian tax manoeuver takes its toll on oil product exports ............................................................ 51
TABLES .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 53
I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY - O IL M ARK ET R EPORT
M ARKET O VERVIEW
Reality check
OPECs decision to scrap its official production ceiling and keep the taps open is a de facto
acknowledgment of current oil market reality. The exporter group has effectively been pumping at will
since Saudi Arabia convinced fellow members a year ago to refrain from supply cuts and defend market
share against a relentless rise in non-OPEC supply. As oil flirts with $40/bbl and approaches a seven-year
low, the early December move appears to signal a renewed determination to maximize low-cost OPEC
supply and drive out high-cost non-OPEC production regardless of price.
But the freewheeling OPEC policy does not for now - alter the status quo on its supply. We see only
limited upside potential until Iran starts to ramp up output assuming sanctions are eased next year.
OPEC supply since June has been running at an average 31.7 mb/d, with Saudi Arabia and Iraq the
groups largest producers - pumping at or near record rates. Riyadh has held supply above 10 mb/d since
March to satisfy demand at home and abroad while Iraq, including the Kurdistan Regional Government
(KRG), is doing its level best to keep production above the 4 mb/d mark first breached in June.
There is evidence the Saudi-led strategy is starting to work. Lower prices are clearly taking a toll on nonOPEC supply, with annual growth shrinking below 0.3 mb/d in November from 2.2 mb/d at the start of
the year. A 0.6 mb/d decline is expected in 2016, as US light tight oil the driver of non-OPEC growth
shifts into contraction. As companies make further spending cuts in reaction to sub-$50/bbl oil, the
impact on supplies both from non-OPEC and OPEC - will be even more pronounced in the longer term.
OPEC Market Share
Total liquids
41.0%
40.5%
40.0%
39.5%
39.0%
38.5%
mb/d Demand/Supply Balance until 4Q16* mb/d

98
3.5
96
2.5
94
1.5
92
0.5
90
-0.5
88
-1.5
86
84
-2.5
1Q09 3Q10 1Q12 3Q13 1Q15 3Q16
Impl. stock ch.&misc (RHS)
38.0%
Jan 13
Oct 13
Jul 14
Apr 15
Demand
Supply*
*ht9/ output assumed steady at 31.7mb/d through aarch 2016. A gradual

ramp-up of Iranian production is expected during 2Q16 to 600/kb/d in June.
At the same time, lower oil prices have been a boon to consumers driving demand growth to a fiveyear high as motorists in the US, China and India fill up their tanks. But sustained low prices will not
necessarily create benefits for importing countries in the longer run as it could complicate the transition
to a low-carbon economy, as discussed in the 2015 World Energy Outlook. Consumption is likely to have
peaked in the third quarter and demand growth is expected to slow to a still-healthy 1.2 mb/d in 2016,
as support from sharply falling oil prices begins to fade.
Shrinking non-OPEC supply and on-trend demand growth should lead to a marked slowdown in the pace
of global stock builds next year. However, as extra Iranian oil hits the market, inventories are expected to
swell by 300 million barrels. Concerns about reaching storage capacity limits appear to be overblown. Oil
tank tops should not come under pressure any time soon, due to spare storage capacity in the US and
expectations of future storage capacity additions. Much of the excess oil will be soaked up by 230 mb of
new storage capacity additions, while US inventories are only 70% full.
Storage levels may provide yet another check on reality. And as inventories continue to swell into 2016,
there will still be a lot of oil weighing on the market.
11 D ECEMBER 2015
D EMAND
DEMAND
Summary
Global demand growth of 1.2 mb/d is forecast in 2016, a notable slowdown from this years five-year
high as many of the factors that contributed to a rapid increase in oil use are likely to prove
temporary. Growth peaked at 1.8 mb/d in 2015, supported by robust gains in China, the US, India and
somewhat surprisingly Europe.
In stark contrast to a 3Q15 peak of 2.2 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), early indicators of 4Q15 demand
growth show a dramatic slowdown with preliminary estimates pointing to 1.3 mb/d y-o-y growth,
the lowest in a year. Previous supports such as post-recessionary bounces in many European
countries and very strong US growth are starting to give way.
After leading global demand growth, weaker US demand conditions since September are likely to
prove a key contributor to the downside. Up by a record 0.5 mb/d y-o-y in 1H15, US growth eased to
0.4 mb/d in 3Q15 and will likely fall in absolute terms in 4Q15. Early data signals show that the initial
stimulus from sharply falling crude oil prices is starting to fade. Apart from the US, preliminary
October numbers show notable slowdowns in Japan, France and Germany.
Chinas 2016 oil demand forecast has been raised due to higher gasoline numbers. The IEAs latest
data show a more rapidly expanding gasoline fleet, with demand next year rising by 0.2 mb/d. The
diesel forecast, however, is flat-to-falling due to sluggish industrial oil demand.
Preliminary Indian demand figures for October showed their largest ever gain as low prices, an
ambitious road-building programme and robust macroeconomic underpinnings supported strong
gains in diesel, gasoline and bitumen.
Global Oil Demand (2014-2016)
(million barrels per day)
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2014

Africa
Americas
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2015
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016
4.0
4.0
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.3
4.2
30.5
30.5
31.3
31.5
31.0
30.9
30.9
31.6
31.2
31.2
30.9
30.9
31.5
31.7
31.3
Asia/Pacific
31.3
30.4
29.9
31.5
30.8
32.2
31.5
31.4
32.7
31.9
33.0
32.4
32.3
33.3
32.7
Europe
13.6
14.0
14.5
14.1
14.1
14.1
14.2
14.9
14.2
14.4
14.1
14.4
14.7
14.3
14.4
FSU
4.6
4.9
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.6
4.9
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.8
5.0
4.9
4.8
Middle East
7.7
8.2
8.4
7.9
8.0
7.7
8.3
8.6
8.0
8.2
7.9
8.4
8.9
8.2
8.3
95.8
91.8
92.0
93.2
94.0
92.8
93.6
93.9
95.4
95.3
94.6
94.8
95.1
96.5
96.7
Annual Chg (%)
1.2
0.5
0.7
1.2
0.9
1.9
2.1
2.4
1.4
1.9
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.5
1.3
Annual Chg (mb/d)
1.1
0.5
0.7
1.1
0.8
1.7
1.9
2.2
1.3
1.8
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.4
1.2
Changes from last OMR (mb/d)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
World
Global Overview
Over one year into a period of sharply falling crude oil prices,
the supportive influence from lower/falling prices appears to
be waning a long-cited IEA prognosis, but one that is gaining
traction with the latest demand data. In the US, a nine-month
strong demand trend came to an abrupt halt in September,
with preliminary indicators for October and November
pointing to further outright declines. For 4Q15, global oil
demand growth should ease back towards 1.3 mb/d y-o-y a
one-year low having peaked at 2.2 mb/d in 3Q15.
Global y-on-y Absolute Growth

Total Products Growth Rate
mb/d
3
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1
1Q2011
LPG
JetKero
Other
-1%
1Q2013
1Q2015
Naphtha
Diesel
Total (RHS)
Gasoline
RFO
11 D ECEMBER 2015
D EMAND
Such metrics equate to world oil demand growth maxing-out at a five-year high of 1.8 mb/d in 2015, with
global deliveries at an average 94.6 mb/d for the year. Rapid gains in gasoline demand from the US,
China and India fuelled the growth. Strong gains in European gasoil/diesel demand also contributed
heavily after many of the regions economies waved goodbye to recessionary conditions.
As for 2016, global oil demand growth is expected to edge closer towards its long-term trend, easing
back to 1.2 mb/d, taking global deliveries to an average 95.8 mb/d. Early indicators of 4Q15 demand
show the projected slowdown already occurring, with absolute declines in US, French, German and
Japanese deliveries seen in October. An exceptionally precarious macroeconomic backdrop is also likely
to restrain the 2016 forecast. The US Federal Reserve is likely to start tightening monetary policy and
raise interest rates, which could dampen many already weak emerging market currencies and create
more problems for their already ailing economies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in Octobers
World Economic Outlook, cited that the liftoff of US policy rates from the zero lower bound is likely to
be associated with some tightening of external financial conditions(and that) emerging markets remain
vulnerable in the short term to further declines in commodity prices and sharp appreciation of the
US dollar, which could further strain corporate balance sheets in some countries.
OECD
Rapid gains in OECD oil demand growth may be on the verge of a sharp deceleration if the latest
preliminary indicators of US, German, French and Japanese deliveries can be used as a canary in the
mine. Having risen in 3Q15 by 0.8 mb/d (or 1.8%) y-o-y, OECD oil demand looks to be posting a reversal,
falling by around 0.1 mb/d (or 0.2%) in 4Q15 y-o-y as US demand conditions deteriorate sharply (see
Americas). The OECD oil demand trajectory is forecast to see flat-to-falling demand in 2016.
OECD Demand based on Adjusted Preliminary Submissions - October 2015
Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
RFO
mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa
Other
Total Products
% pa
mb/d % pa
mb/d
10.96
0.8
1.80
2.7
4.88
-2.4
0.51
-14.8
0.47
-21.2
5.83
-2.90
24.45
-1.5
US50
9.22
0.8
1.53
2.3
3.97
-2.7
0.14
-23.8
0.14
-44.1
4.39
-3.30
19.39
-1.5
Canada
0.82
-1.8
0.14
5.6
0.31
-2.9
0.28
-12.5
0.03
-49.6
0.77
1.83
2.35
-3.0
Mexico
0.77
2.7
0.06
6.8
0.37
-3.6
0.05
-8.7
0.19
10.5
0.56
-6.09
2.01
-0.6
OECD Europe
1.89
-3.3
1.38
4.7
4.94
0.7
1.55
2.5
0.79
-13.0
3.32
0.24
13.87
-0.3
Germany
0.43
-6.9
0.19
1.3
0.82
1.4
0.40
0.2
0.11
-16.0
0.51
0.90
2.47
-1.4
United Kingdom
0.29
-3.2
0.33
-4.6
0.49
2.7
0.13
10.9
0.03
-17.6
0.26
3.18
1.52
0.2
France
0.16
-2.2
0.15
1.7
0.72
-3.1
0.28
-4.6
0.03
-34.3
0.29
-11.09
1.63
-5.3
Italy
0.19
-2.7
0.10
5.2
0.52
-6.6
0.07
60.7
0.08
13.5
0.35
11.19
1.30
2.6
Spain
0.11
-0.8
0.12
-8.9
0.45
2.1
0.16
-2.5
0.14
-17.7
0.23
-3.19
1.21
-3.6
OECD Am ericas*
1.56
0.8
0.77
3.2
1.34
5.3
0.53
6.4
0.51
-11.9
3.05
-0.72
7.75
0.6
Japan
0.89
0.7
0.41
2.1
0.42
3.9
0.38
3.2
0.26
-26.0
1.48
-5.72
3.84
-3.5
Korea
0.22
6.4
0.18
7.7
0.39
13.2
0.12
16.9
0.21
12.5
1.32
5.84
2.43
8.2
Australia
OECD Total
0.32
14.41
-2.2
0.2
0.14
3.95
2.5
3.5
0.44
11.16
2.6
-0.2
0.00 265.5
2.58
-0.7
0.03
1.77
7.3
-15.1
0.17
12.20
-4.46
-1.52
1.10
46.08
0.1
-0.8
OECD Asia & Oceania
* Including US territories
Americas
The gloss of sharply falling crude oil prices appears to have faded as a stimulus to strongly rising demand
conditions in the OECD Americas. Preliminary October numbers show regional oil deliveries averaging
24.4 mb/d in the OECD Americas, 380 kb/d down on the year earlier after a confirmed y-o-y decline of
55 kb/d in September. This amounts to a dramatic change from the average 410 kb/d gains seen in the
first eight months of 2015.
11 D ECEMBER 2015
D EMAND
mb/d
25.5
OECD Americas: Total Products

Demand
mb/d
11.5
OECD Americas: Motor Gasoline

Demand
25.0
11.0
24.5
10.5
24.0
23.5
10.0
23.0
22.5
JAN
APR
JUL
Range 10-14
2015
OCT
JAN
2014
5-year avg
9.5
JAN
APR
JUL
Range 10-14
2015
OCT
JAN
2014
5-year avg
After experiencing nine consecutive months of positive y-o-y growth, the US is leading these widely
fluctuating demand conditions. September saw a rare, albeit modest, return of lower y-o-y demand
across the 50 states of the US. The last confirmed data point for the US shows deliveries easing back by
20 kb/d compared to a year earlier to 19.2 mb/d in September. Demand fell due to sharp declines in LPG,
residual fuel oil and other products. LPGs switch has been particularly stark, since it rose strongly from
April through July, before falling by 155 kb/d y-o-y in August and 265 kb/d in September. US LPG demand
fell as warm weather curbed the propane crop-drying requirement in the Midwest and an ethane cracker
shut on the Gulf Coast. Although we have been alluding to a weaker US demand trend towards the end
of the year, the September adjustment surprised by its scale a full 120 kb/d below our previous
estimate.
mb/d
20.5
US50: Total Products Demand
US50: LPG Demand
2.8
20.0
2.6
19.5
2.4
19.0
2.2
18.5
2.0
18.0
17.5
JAN
mb/d
3.0
1.8
APR
JUL
Range 10-14
2015
OCT
JAN
2014
5-year avg
1.6
JAN
APR
JUL
Range 10-14
2015
OCT
JAN
2014
5-year avg
Preliminary estimates of demand across the 50 states of the US for both October and November based
on weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration show further y-o-y declines as previously
strong gains in US gasoline demand appear to easing just as industrial oil use weakens. Having risen by
close to 3% compared to the year earlier through the first nine months of 2015, US gasoline demand
growth will struggle to get above 1.5% during October-November. The most price-responsive US drivers
have already put many more miles on the clock and with retail pump prices flattening out in recent
months the price stimulus has ebbed. Leading manufacturing business sentiment indicators such as the
Institute of Supply Managements Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) returned to
contracting territory in November after a two-year hiatus, indicating weakening industrial sector oil
demand. Thus for 4Q15 as a whole, total US oil deliveries are forecast to average 19.4 mb/d, 155 kb/d
below year earlier levels. The forecast for the year as a whole also equates to 19.4 mb/d, a gain of
285 kb/d on the year earlier. Next year the US demand forecast is up only marginally to 19.5 mb/d, as
projected decelerations in US gasoline, jet/kerosene and other product demand growth bring the
overall trend down significantly.
11 D ECEMBER 2015
mb/d
10.0
D EMAND
US Institute of Supply Management

Manufacturing Index
US50: Motor Gasoline Demand

60
58
9.5
56
9.0
54
8.5
52
50
8.0
JAN
APR
2013
JUL
2014
OCT
2015
JAN
2016
Note: 50=contraction/expansion threshold
48
Jun12
Mar13
Dec13
Sep14
Jun15
Pulled down compared to recent heights, Mexican oil deliveries in October essentially maintained parity
with year earlier levels, as previous sharp gains in industrial oil use ebbed. Having risen in y-o-y terms by
65 kb/d in September and 45 kb/d in August, Octobers modest 15 kb/d decline amounted to a sharp
reversal in sentiment. Sizeable declines in Mexican gasoil/diesel and other product deliveries led
Octobers reversal, respectively falling by 20 kb/d and 15 kb/d compared to the year earlier. Easing
demand from the electricity generating sector proved a particular downside contributor, as the Mexican
Secretaria de Energia reported power-sector gasoil/diesel use down by around a half in October, y-o-y,
with coal use up sharply in contrast. A continuation of Octobers relatively flat Mexican demand trend is
foreseen in 2016, as deliveries average roughly 2.0 mb/d in both 2015 and 2016.
mb/d
2.3
Mexico: Total Products Demand
kb/d
480
Mexico: Gasoil/Diesel Demand
460
2.2
440
2.1
420
2.0
400
1.9
1.8
JAN
380
APR
JUL
Range 10-14
2015
JAN
OCT
2014
5-year avg
360
JAN
APR
JUL
Range 10-14
2015
OCT
JAN
2014
5-year avg
Europe
The strength of the European oil demand picture as deliveries rose in y-o-y terms through the first
three quarters of 2015, contrary to the long-term trend is largely one of rising gasoil/diesel demand.
European gasoil demand rose strongly through the first nine months of this year as additional industrial
and transport sector use coincided with a legislative change that forced many shippers to use lowsulphur fuels post December 2014 (see Medium Term Oil Market Report, 2015). Recent strong gains in
Italy, the UK and Turkey have led Europes upside, offsetting slowdowns/declines in Spain, Germany and
France. Additional gasoil demand in the UK proved to be a key upside contributor to European growth
during August-September. Total UK industrial activity posted a 1.1% y-o-y gain in September, according
to the UK Office for National Statistics, continuing a near-two year period of rising y-o-y activity
supporting robust gains in industrial oil use. October saw the ninth consecutive month of rising y-o-y
demand in previously beleaguered Italy, with strong gains in the petrochemical and jet transport
markets the key recent upside contributors.
11 D ECEMBER 2015
D EMAND
mb/d
16.0
OECD Europe: Total Products

Demand
kb/d
1700
15.5
1650
15.0
1600
14.5
1550
14.0
1500
13.5
13.0
1450
12.5
1400
12.0
JAN
UK: Total Products Demand
APR
JUL
Range 10-14
2015
OCT
JAN
2014
5-year avg
1350
JAN
APR
Range 10-14
2015
JUL
OCT
JAN
2014
5-year avg
Despite such recent gains, the IEA still foresees a deceleration occurring in 4Q15. Notable European
economies that have already shown early signs of easing include Spain, France and Germany. Having
seen y-o-y growth average 25 kb/d through the first nine months of the year, Spains 45 kb/d October
decline is likely to be a harbinger of persistent weaknesses to come, as we foresee the countrys demand
falling by around 1% in 2016. Post-recessionary stimuli are losing potency, as is the supportive influence
of falling prices. A similar picture is painted for France and Germany, with respective y-o-y declines of
5.3% and 1.4% in October.
mb/d
1.6
Spain: Total Products Demand
mb/d
2.0
France: Total Products Demand
1.9
1.5
1.8
1.4
1.7
1.3
1.6
1.2
1.1
JAN
1.5
APR
JUL
Range 10-14
2015
OCT
JAN
2014
5-year avg
1.4
JAN
APR
JUL
Range 10-14
2015
OCT
JAN
2014
5-year avg
Asia Oceania
Rising modestly in 3Q15, OECD Asia Oceania has seen generally declining oil demand for many years and
is forecast to return to trend from 4Q15-through-2016. After a decline of 15 kb/d y-o-y in 2015 to
8.1 mb/d, total oil deliveries in OECD Asia Oceania are
mb/d OECD Asia Oceania: Total Products
Demand
forecast to fall by a further 25 kb/d in 2016 due to declines 10.0
in the transport sector, right across OECD Asia Oceania, and 9.5
the power-sector, specifically in Japan. Prior to 3Q15 the 9.0
region endured five consecutive quarters of falling y-o-y
8.5
demand with the sharpest contractions reserved for residual
fuel oil and other products. Declines in Japanese residual 8.0
fuel oil and other product deliveries, largely attributable to 7.5
the power sector, account for the majority of these falls. 7.0
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
JAN
Meanwhile, gains in naphtha and gasoil/diesel demand
Range 10-14
2014
proved insufficient until 3Q15 to offset the otherwise
2015
5-year avg
declining demand trend in OECD Asia Oceania.
Falling by approximately 3.5% y-o-y in October, along with a downwardly revised January-August series,
the overall Japanese oil demand estimate for 2015, at 4.2 mb/d, has been curbed by approximately
11 D ECEMBER 2015
D EMAND
15 kb/d compared to last months Report. This revised estimate leaves a decline of 120 kb/d (or 2.7%)
over 2014, with sharp drops in residual fuel oil, LPG and other products offsetting gains in road diesel
and naphtha, the latter largely due to additional petrochemical demand. A further, albeit smaller, decline
in Japanese demand, -80 kb/d to 4.1 mb/d, is foreseen for 2016, with drops envisaged across both the
transport and power sectors. The downside momentum eases as the power sectors flight from oil
progressively runs out of steam. Already as of late-2015 the ten largest Japanese electricity utilities
tracked by the Federation of Electric Power Companies had reduced their combined oil usage to
0.1 mb/d in October, as gas, coal, renewables and even nuclear filled the void. Nearly one-quarter down
on year earlier levels, or two-thirds down on two years prior, little room is left for further sizeable
declines in Japanese power sector oil use, hence the more modest decline that is forecast for 2016.
mb/d
6.0
Japan: Total Products Demand
mb/d
0.7
5.5
0.6
5.0
0.5
4.5
0.4
4.0
0.3
3.5
JAN
APR
JUL
Range 10-14
2015
OCT
JAN
2014
5-year avg
0.2
JAN
Japan: Residual Fuel Demand
APR
JUL
Range 10-14
2015
OCT
JAN
2014
5-year avg
Strong gains across the major industrial fuels saw Korean oil demand growth scale a near three-year high
of 185 kb/d (or 8.2%) y-o-y in October. The scale of growth massively outpaced overall industrial output
expansion, which according to Statistics Korea rose by approximately 1.5% in October compared to the
year earlier. Korean oil demand growth peaked as lower prices and the relatively subdued state of
demand one year earlier provided an additional one-off stimulus to consumption. Having risen by around
90 kb/d in 2015, to 2.4 mb/d, a deceleration is foreseen in 2016 (+45 kb/d) due to a softening in Korean
transport fuel demand.
mb/d
2.8
Korea: Total Products Demand
kb/d
550
2.6
500
2.4
450
2.2
400
2.0
350
1.8
JAN
APR
JUL
Range 10-14
2015
OCT
JAN
2014
5-year avg
300
JAN
Korea: Gasoil/Diesel Demand
APR
JUL
Range 10-14
2015
OCT
JAN
2014
5-year avg
Non-OECD
Having bottomed-out at around 1.0 mb/d y-o-y in 1Q15, non-OECD momentum has modestly
accelerated, supported by strong gains in the regions two dominant consumer nations India and China.
Rising by approximately 1.4 mb/d (or 3.0%) y-o-y in 3Q15 to 48.8 mb/d, the region posted its sharpest
gain in two and a half years - supported by continued gains in gasoline demand and, more recently, by
higher deliveries of gasoil/diesel and LPG (including ethane). Previously conspicuous by its absence,
returning non-OECD gasoil/diesel demand growth is a very notable occurrence. Looking forward, non-
11 D ECEMBER 2015
D EMAND
OECD oil demand growth should stabilise at around 1.0-to-1.4 mb/d from 4Q15-2016, modestly down on
recent months, as some of the previous support from falling oil prices wanes. Growth is expected to
remain above recent lows as activity in the regions two key pillars of contemporary demand strength
India and China remain net-supportive.
Non-OECD: Demand by Product
(thousand barrels per day)
Demand
Annual Chg (kb/d)
Annual Chg (%)
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
2Q15
LPG & Ethane
5,148
5,176
5,272
170
276
3.4
5.5
Naphtha
3,127
3,096
3,196
77
138
2.5
4.5
Motor Gasoline
9,971
10,078
10,248
365
621
3.8
6.5
Jet Fuel & Kerosene
3,040
3,043
3,083
120
122
4.1
4.1
13,666
14,456
14,242
383
301
2.7
2.2
5,119
5,254
5,045
12
-226
0.2
-4.3
Gas/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total Products
3Q15
2Q15
3Q15
6,255
6,703
6,851
340
272
5.3
4.1
47,105
48,610
48,760
1,403
1,436
3.0
3.0
China
The much-anticipated structural shift in the Chinese economy away from heavy industry/exports
towards domestic demand/services is indeed occurring but having a much gentler impact on net oil
demand than previously foreseen. Although some forecasters saw economic growth slowing to about 4%
(the IMFs October World Economic Outlook cites a 6.8% expansion still well down on the previous fiveyear trend of approximately 8.6%), the first ten months of 2015 saw Chinese oil product demand growth
average 6.7% (or 0.7 mb/d) in y-o-y terms. This figure shows surprising buoyancy compared to the
previous five-year average when the underlying macroeconomic backdrop was arguably much more
favourable. Gasoline, LPG and other product demand posted average y-o-y gains of 0.2 mb/d y-o-y
through the first ten months of 2015, more than offsetting weak expansion in gasoil and naphtha and
absolute declines in residual fuel oil.
mb/d
12
China: Total Products Demand
mb/d
3.0
11
2.5
10
2.0
1.5
8
JAN
APR
Range 10-14
2015
JUL
OCT
2014
5-year avg
JAN
1.0
JAN
China: Motor Gasoline Demand
APR
Range 10-14
2015
JUL
OCT
2014
JAN
5-year avg
Although the economic outlook grew more precarious in 2015, Chinese consumers maintained
sufficiently high confidence levels to stimulate escalating vehicle usage both road and air supporting
robust gasoline (see Heady vehicle sales support strong Chinese gasoline demand growth) and jet fuel
deliveries. Chinese gasoline demand growth averaged 10.4% (or 230 kb/d) y-o-y through the first ten
months of 2015 and jet 19.1% (or 100 kb/d). Such heady gains, coupled with sharp increases in the
countrys LPG requirement as a petrochemical feedstock, proved more than sufficient to offset Chinas
otherwise ailing industrial oil use.
10
11 D ECEMBER 2015
mb/d
0.8
D EMAND
China: Jet & Kerosene Demand
China: LPG Demand
mb/d
1.4
0.7
1.2
0.6
1.0
0.5
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.2
JAN
APR
Range 10-14
JUL
JAN
OCT
2014
0.4
JAN
JUL
2015
5-year avg
2015
APR
Range 10-14
OCT
2014
JAN
5-year avg
China: Demand by Product

Demand
Annual Chg (kb/d)
Annual Chg (%)
2014
2015
2016
2015
2016
2015
884
1,088
1,175
205
86
23.2
7.9
Naphtha
1,169
1,176
1,204
28
0.6
2.4
Motor Gasoline
2,252
2,468
2,661
215
193
9.6
7.8
540
632
684
93
51
17.2
8.1
3,381
3,424
3,427
43
1.3
0.1
318
259
212
-59
-47
-18.6
-18.2
LPG & Ethane
Jet Fuel & Kerosene

Gas/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total Products
2016
2,069
2,204
2,274
135
70
6.5
3.2
10,612
11,251
11,637
639
385
6.0
3.4
At an estimated 11.3 mb/d for October, the IEAs apparent demand estimate carries a near 5% premium
compared to the year earlier, an estimate pulled higher by a third consecutive month of heady diesel
destocking. Although sharp gains were clearly seen in gasoline, jet/kerosene and LPG (including ethane)
demand, taking into account additional diesel stock draws, the gasoil demand estimate also likely rose.
Chinese diesel demand is likely to have risen by around 4% in October, broadly in-line with the 5.6% y-oy quoted for total Chinese industrial output by the National Bureau of Statistics and the recent uptick in
the Manufacturing PMI (although still net-pessimistic).
mb/d
4.0
China: Gasoil/Diesel Demand
Chinese Manufacturing PMI
53
52
3.5
51
3.0
50
2.5
2.0
JAN
49
48
APR
Range 10-14
2015
JUL
OCT
2014
5-year avg
JAN
Note: 50=contraction/expansion threshold. Sources: Caixin, Markit
47
Jan13
Sep13
May14
Jan15
Sep15
Heady vehicle sales support strong Chinese gasoline demand growth

Upending year-earlier forecasts that Chinese gasoline demand would struggle in 2015, confirmed data for
the first ten months of the year show growth of roughly 10.4% y-o-y. Such momentum exceeds the
consensus of analysts earlier expectations, adding roughly four percentage points over Februarys MediumTerm Oil Market Report. Furthermore, reports of rapidly expanding gasoline demand, in contrast to weak
gasoil/fuel oil, add to the increasingly compelling argument that the Chinese economy is undergoing a
structural transformation shifting from heavy manufacturing/exports towards a more domesticallyfocused economy.
11 D ECEMBER 2015
11
D EMAND
Heady vehicle sales support strong Chinese gasoline demand growth (continued)
The obvious questions are what has changed and how did Chinese gasoline rise so strongly? The answer
to both is that China sold many more vehicles than previously expected. Given the exceptionally challenging
macroeconomic backdrop, with Chinese economic growth forecast to contract to a 25-year low in 2015,
excessively muted early forecasts were made for additions to the gasoline vehicle fleet (around 5% in
Februarys Report). The reality proved much stronger. Data for the first ten months of 2015 from the China
Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) show sales of 16.5 million passenger cars. Although such
new car sales were only 3.9% higher than the corresponding period in 2014, assuming sales over the
remainder of the year averaged the previous ten months, total Chinese passenger car sales would easily top
20 million units in 2015. With an ambitious Chinese scrapping estimate of less than 1 million vehicles in
2015, this equates to a near 20% increase in the Chinese fleet.
Given such dramatic gains in the Chinese vehicle stock, the majority of which we believe to be gasolinepowered, gasoline demand growth has if anything surprised to the downside. Maintaining average vehicle
usage levels from the year earlier, coupled with IEA
mb/d
China: Motor Gasoline Demand
transport model assumptions that over the period 2010-15
2.8
the Chinese vehicle stock each year become 1% more
efficient each year, robust vehicle sales imply gasoline 2.6
demand growth of around 0.4 mb/d. Our conservative 2.4
estimate of the latest data puts it at half this level.
2.2
The Chinese authorities do not publish demand statistics, 2.0

so we have to approximate product demand via our 1.8
apparent demand calculation, i.e. Chinese apparent
1.6
gasoline demand = Chinese refinery output of gasoline +
APR
JUL
OCT
JAN
JAN
2012
2013
2014
net gasoline imports gasoline product stock-builds. We
2015
2016
then adjust this series to take account of historical average
discrepancies that exist between these approximations and the detailed work that the IEAs statistics
division published in its annual Energy Statistics of Non-OECD Countries. This methodology, which is based
on estimates, shows Chinese gasoline demand growth of around 230 kb/d (or 10.4%) on a y-o-y basis
through the first ten months of the year.
If, as looks probable now, some of the big recent increases in the Chinese vehicle stock have resulted in
many vehicles sitting idle, or at least partially-utilised as happened in 2009 and 2011; this potentially stores
up persistent strong gains in Chinese gasoline demand for many years to come. For example, assuming a
further gain of around 10% in the Chinese gasoline fleet in 2016, equivalent in IEA models to a net-addition
of nearly 13 million vehicles, whereby the majority of these extra vehicles are normally utilised but some of
the previous years additions come in at a higher utilisation, the net effective increase in the Chinese vehicle
stock would be even higher than the original 13 million estimate. The Chinese gasoline demand forecast
could thus be higher than the current +0.2 mb/d forecast, or less of course if not only the previously underutilised vehicles stay under-utilised but also some of the units sold in 2016 lay idle. Predicting such vehicle
usage levels is a very inexact science, but one that we must highlight as a potential wild-card for the 2016
Chinese demand forecast.
Other Non-OECD
Adding approximately 0.3 mb/d in 2015, to 4.0 mb/d, Indian demand posted its largest ever gain
supported by strong growth in gasoil/diesel, gasoline and LPG. Preliminary October data, from the
Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell of the Indian government, showed demand growth of 17.5% y-o-y,
a 12-year high, with the transport sector leading the upside. With domestic passenger car sales up 22%
y-o-y, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, alongside reports of a heavy road
building programme, gasoline, diesel and bitumen demand surged, respectively higher by 14.2%, 16.1 %
and 64.4% y-o-y in October. A further overall gain of around 0.2 mb/d is foreseen in 2016, down on the
year earlier as the dramatic price reductions of 2015 are unlikely to be repeated but still up strongly
compared to the pre-2015 trend with gasoline and diesel forecast to rise by a fast clip.
12
11 D ECEMBER 2015
mb/d
4.5
D EMAND
India: Total Products Demand
mb/d
1.8
4.0
1.6
3.5
1.4
3.0
1.2
2.5
JAN
APR
Range 10-14
JUL
OCT
2014
JAN
1.0
JAN
5-year avg
2015
India: Gasoil/Diesel Demand
APR
Range 10-14
JUL
2015
OCT
2014
JAN
5-year avg
The latest Brazilian oil demand data for October show a continuation of the falling y-o-y trend that
commenced in August. Pulled down by sharp declines across all of the main product categories, bar
gasoline and other products, Brazilian oil deliveries in October posted their sharpest y-o-y decline in
eight months. Down by 145 kb/d y-o-y in October, or -4.2%, the overall Brazilian demand metric was
pulled down chiefly by big contractions in gasoil/diesel demand, -110 kb/d (or -9.3%) y-o-y, a natural
consequence of the economys recent woes. The Instituto de Geografia e Estatistica reporting industrial
production declining by 10.9% y-o-y in September, while Markits Manufacturing PMI fell to an all-time
low, of a clearly contractionary, 43.8 in November whereby any reading below 50 signifies netpessimism. Because of such pressures, it is difficult to foresee anything other than further absolute
contractions in Brazilian oil demand 2015-16, with respective declines of 30 kb/d and 25 kb/d forecast
taking average deliveries down to around 3.2 mb/d by 2016.
mb/d
3.6
Brazil: Total Products Demand
mb/d
1.3
3.4
1.2
3.2
1.1
3.0
1.0
2.8
0.9
2.6
0.8
2.4
JAN
APR
Range 10-14
2015
JUL
OCT
2014
5-year avg
JAN
0.7
JAN
Brazil: Gasoil/Diesel Demand
APR
Range 10-14
2015
JUL
OCT
2014
JAN
5-year avg
Curbed by big y-o-y declines, August-through-October, the Russian oil demand estimate for 2015 shows
a decline of around 2%, as deliveries average 3.6 mb/d in 2015. A further drop of around 1% is foreseen
in 2016, taking deliveries down to 3.5 mb/d, as Russian oil demand fall as a consequence of the likely
prolonged contraction in the Russian economy, albeit at a less severe pace going forwards. The IMF, in
Octobers World Economic Outlook, estimated that the Russian economy would contract by 3.8% in 2015
and a further 0.6% in 2016. Focussing on the latest demand data, deliveries declined in both y-o-y and
month-on-month terms in September and October, while the y-o-y trend since February has, with the
odd exception, been largely a negative one. Averaging 3.5 mb/d in October, Russian oil product
deliveries were nearly 3% lower than the corresponding month in 2014, with sharp declines seen in
residual fuel oil, jet/kerosene and gasoline. Transport fuel demand ebbed as consumer confidence in
Russia, as tracked by the Federal State Statistics Service, came in at a heavily pessimistic -24 in 3Q15,
whereby any reading below zero is gloomy; industrial oil demand ailing as Russias total industrial output
fell by 3.6% y-o-y in October.
11 D ECEMBER 2015
13
D EMAND
mb/d
4.0
Russia: Total Products Demand
Russia: Residual Fuel Demand
mb/d
0.5
3.8
0.4
3.6
0.3
3.4
3.2
0.2
3.0
2.8
JAN
APR
Range 10-14
JUL
OCT
2014
JAN
0.1
JAN
5-year avg
2015
APR
Range 10-14
JUL
2015
OCT
2014
JAN
5-year avg
Having recently paused for breath, Saudi Arabian oil demand returned to strong y-o-y growth once again
in September, supported by sizeable gains from industry, transport and peak-summer air-conditioning
demand. At an estimated 3.6 mb/d in September, total Saudi Arabian oil deliveries rose by 0.2 mb/d (or
nearly 5%) compared to the corresponding month last year, bringing growth back towards the kind of
heady heights seen in 1H15. For the year as a whole, Saudi Arabian oil deliveries are projected to average
roughly 3.2 mb/d, 0.1 mb/d (or 3.2%) up on the year. Growth conditions then likely moderate to around
1.9% in 2016, as underlying macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, a consequence of persistently
suppressed oil prices (at least compared to pre-2015 experiences). Lower oil prices dampen
Saudi Arabias potential economic spend and, in turn, the countrys own oil use, a downturn that is eased
as additional petrochemical demand from the Sadara facility in Jubail provides an offset. Previous reports
from the company stated that a mixture of 70% naphtha and 30% ethane would be used as the principal
feedstock at the facility.
mb/d
4.0
Saudi Arabia: Total Products

Demand
3.5
0.8
3.0
0.6
2.5
0.4
2.0
JAN
APR
Range 10-14
2015
JUL
Saudi Arabia: Gasoil/Diesel Demand
mb/d
1.0
OCT
2014
JAN
0.2
JAN
5-year avg
APR
Range 10-14
JUL
2015
OCT
2014
JAN
5-year avg
Non-OECD: Demand by Region

Demand
Annual Chg (%)
2Q15
3Q15
2Q15
3Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4,080
4,062
3,952
69
81
1.7
2.1
Asia
23,403
23,794
23,570
1,074
1,355
4.7
6.1
FSU
4,581
4,897
5,043
36
-101
0.7
-2.0
Latin America
6,677
6,810
6,890
-78
0.0
-1.1
Middle East
7,671
8,348
8,600
192
163
2.4
1.9
694
700
705
32
17
4.8
2.5
47,105
48,610
48,760
1,403
1,436
3.0
3.0
Africa
Non-OECD Europe
Total Products
14
Annual Chg (kb/d)
1Q15
11 D ECEMBER 2015
S UPPLY
SUPPLY
Summary
Global oil supplies inched up 50 kb/d in November, to 96.9 mb/d, on slightly higher OPEC crude
output. Total supplies stood at a robust 1.8 mb/d above a year earlier, with OPEC total liquids
accounting for the lions share of the growth, at 84%.
OPEC crude output edged 50 kb/d higher in November to 31.73 mb/d with record production from
Iraq and higher supply from Kuwait offsetting losses from African members. The group opted at its
4 December meeting to continue pumping at current levels and scrapped an official 30 mb/d
production ceiling that had been roundly ignored. OPEC crude supply stood nearly 1.4 mb/d above a
year ago, when it adopted a Saudi-led policy to defend market share regardless of price.
The call on OPEC crude and stock change for 2016 is unchanged from our previous Report at
31.3 mb/d a substantial rise of 1.6 mb/d on this year. Slightly higher expectations for non-OPEC
supply have led to a minor downward revision in the 2H16 call on OPEC. In the last six months of
2016, the call is due to rise by 1.2 mb/d from 1H16 to 31.9 mb/d marginally above current output.
Oil below $50/bbl is clearly driving out non-OPEC supply, with annual growth slowing to below
0.3 mb/d in November, down from 2.2 mb/d at the start of the year and with a decline of 0.6 mb/d
expected in 2016. Despite oils latest drop, the forecast for non-OPEC production for next year, which
slips to 57.7 mb/d, is largely unchanged since last months Report.
Record high Russian output and a rebound in Canadian and Kazakh levels offset strike-affected
Brazilian oil output and seasonally weaker biofuels production leaving non-OPEC output steady in
November at 58.5 mb/d. Output for 2015 is set to expand by 1.3 mb/d a sharp slowdown on growth
of 2.4 mb/d seen the year before.
OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply
mb/d
Year-on-Year Change
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15
OPEC Crude
Non-OPEC
OPEC NGLs
Total Supply
mb/d
Quarterly Call on OPEC Crude +

Stock Change
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
1Q
2014
2Q
2015
3Q
2016
4Q
All world oil supply data for November discussed in this report are IEA estimates. Estimates for OPEC
countries, Alaska, Mexico and Russia are supported by preliminary November supply data.
OPEC crude oil supply

OPEC crude oil output crept up 50 kb/d in November to 31.73 mb/d with record rates from Iraq,
including the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and a rebound in Kuwaiti flows offsetting lower
supply from Nigeria, Libya and Angola. Iraq turned in its strongest performance yet after exports from
the south rose to their highest ever after bad weather restricted shipments in October. Saudi production
held steady in November at 10.19 mb/d, not far from all-time highs.
11 D ECEMBER 2015
15
S UPPLY
OPECs taps will remain open for the foreseeable future after the group decided at its Vienna meeting on
4 December to keep producing at current levels and abandon its production ceiling. Our November
output assessment of 31.73 mb/d excludes Indonesia, which had its membership reactivated in early
December. Indonesias crude oil production estimate will be included in OPEC Supply from the January
2016 Oil Market Report and will be reflected in the call on OPEC from that point.
mb/d
OPEC Crude Production
mb/d
32.0
2.0
31.5
1.5
31.0
1.0
OPEC Growth y-o-y
0.5
30.5
0.0
30.0
-0.5
29.5
-1.0
29.0
Jan
Mar
2012
May
Jul
2013
Sep
Nov
2014
-1.5
Jan 14
Jul 14
Other OPEC
Saudi Arabia
Jan
2015
Jan 15
Jul 15
Iraq
OPECCUR
OPEC meanwhile acknowledged in a closed session that the groups output was running at least
1.5 mb/d above an official 30 million b/d target. That production ceiling, in place since January 2012, was
maintained when OPEC met a year ago and Riyadh persuaded the group not to cut supply but to defend
market share against rising non-OPEC supply. At that time, the price of oil had tumbled towards $70/bbl
from above $115/bbl in June 2014 and some within OPEC were calling for supply cuts. Brent crude is now
around $40/bbl, but Saudi Arabia, the worlds largest oil exporter, remains adamant that it will not act
alone to shore up prices and continues to insist that non-OPEC producers must also participate in any
supply curbs.
OPEC Crude Production
Sustainable
Production
Sep 2015
Oct 2015
Nov 2015
Supply
Supply
Supply
Algeria
1.12
1.11
1.11
1.14
0.03
1.11
Angola
1.79
1.78
1.74
1.80
0.06
1.77
Ecuador
0.53
0.53
0.54
0.56
0.02
0.54
Iran
2.88
2.88
2.87
3.60
0.73
2.85
Iraq4
4.30
4.17
4.31
4.18
3.89
Kuwait
2.81
2.73
2.80
2.80
0.00
2.78
Libya
0.37
0.43
0.38
0.46
0.08
0.40
Nigeria
1.86
1.90
1.82
1.87
0.05
1.79
Capacity1
Spare Capacity vs
Nov 2015 Supply
YTD Average
Crude Supply
Qatar
0.65
0.67
0.68
0.69
0.01
0.66
Saudi Arabia2
10.20
10.21
10.19
12.26
2.07
10.16
2.91
2.89
2.89
2.95
0.06
2.88
Venezuela
2.38
2.38
2.40
2.47
0.07
2.41
Total OPEC
31.80
31.68
31.73
34.78
3.18
31.24
UAE
3
(excluding Iraq, Nigeria, Libya and Iran)
2.32
1 Capacity levels can be reached within 90 days and sustained for an extended period.
2 Includes half of Neutral Zone production.
3 Includes upgraded Orinoco extra-heavy oil assumed at 500 kb/d in November.
4 Iraqi production during November exceeded our assessment of sustainable capacity.
16
11 D ECEMBER 2015
S UPPLY
OPEC has effectively been producing at will since it backed the Saudi-led policy a year ago, with overall
crude production up nearly 1.4 mb/d year-on-year. Saudi Arabia and Iraq the groups largest producers
have ramped up by a respective 580 kb/d and 930 kb/d since November 2014. The unusual move to
scrap the official supply target at the 4 December meeting signals a renewed determination to defend
market share regardless of price. Despite the hands-off OPEC policy, with Saudi Arabia and Iraq pumping
at or near record rates there is limited potential for supply growth in 2016 apart from Iran, assuming
sanctions are eased. Ministers may discuss a new production ceiling at their next scheduled meeting on 2
June, at which point the impact of Irans full return to the oil market post-sanctions should be clearer.
The call on OPEC crude and stock change for 2016 (excluding Indonesia) rises by 1.6 mb/d to 31.3 mb/d,
unchanged from our previous Report. Slightly higher expectations for non-OPEC supply have led to a
minor downward revision in the 2H16 call on OPEC. In the last six months of 2016, the call is due to
rise by 1.2 mb/d from 1H16 to 31.9 mb/d marginally higher than current output. The groups effective
spare capacity stood at 2.32 mb/d in November, with Saudi Arabia accounting for nearly 90% of the
surplus.
Production in Saudi Arabia held steady at 10.19 mb/d in November as higher shipments of crude oil to
world markets and an uptick in internal refinery runs offset a lower requirement for crude to burn in
domestic power plants. Riyadhs drive to preserve market share and meet demand at home has pushed
production beyond 10 mb/d for nine straight months. Saudi oil officials have said they see signs of strong
demand for its crude and industry sources say there is every indication the Kingdom is supplying its
customers with all their requested volumes. In particular, China and India appeared to be lifting more
Saudi oil during November, according to preliminary tanker tracking data.
Saudi crude exports have been holding above the 7 mb/d mark for much of this year, with shipments
averaging roughly 7.3 mb/d from January through September versus around 7.1 mb/d during the same
period in 2014, according to the latest figures submitted to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI).
Total Saudi oil exports, excluding condensates and NGLs, averaged around 8.4 mb/d during the first nine
months of the year versus 8.0 mb/d during the same period in 2014.
mb/d
mb/d
Saudi Arabia Crude Supply
10.0
10.6
10.4
8.0
10.2
10.0
Saudi Liquids Exports

20%
15%
6.0
10%
9.8
4.0
9.6
9.4
2.0
5%
9.2
9.0
Jan
Mar
2012
May
2013
Jul
Sep
2014
Nov
Jan
2015
0.0
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Products
Crude
Source: Jh5L
Product share (RHS)
Saudi refineries, returning from scheduled maintenance, processed record quantities of crude
2.5 mb/d during September, up about 300 kb/d on the previous month. The volume of crude used to
generate power for air conditioning eased to 744 kb/d in September from 847 kb/d the previous month.
Saudi Arabias Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meanwhile appeared to suggest that the
Kingdom could keep up robust spending even if oil prices were to fall to $30/bbl. The key challenges are
our overdependence on oil and the way we prepare and spend our budgets, Prince Mohammed, the
son of King Salman, said in an interview with the New York Times. Riyadh is mulling various reforms
including reduced energy and water subsidies for wealthy Saudis.
11 D ECEMBER 2015
17
S UPPLY
As for Saudi Arabias Gulf neighbours, Kuwaiti output rebounded to 2.8 mb/d in November, up 70 kb/d
month-on-month (m-o-m), upon the completion of scheduled maintenance at a crude oil gathering
centre. Kuwait has meanwhile appointed deputy prime minister and finance minister Anas al-Saleh as
acting oil minister, replacing Ali al-Omair. In a cabinet reshuffle, al-Omair was appointed minister of
public works and minister of state for national assembly affairs. Kuwaits oil policy is determined by the
countrys Supreme Petroleum Council. Production in the UAE held steady at 2.89 mb/d, close to a record
high of 2.91 mb/d, while Qatari supply inched up 10 kb/d to 680 kb/d.
Output in Iraq, including the KRG, rose by 140 kb/d to a record high of 4.31 mb/d in November. OPECs
second biggest producer supplied world markets with nearly 4 mb/d of crude during November.
Shipments from Iraqs main outlet in the south rebounded to 3.37 mb/d the highest ever after bad
weather in October cut exports to 2.7 mb/d. Novembers lofty export levels will be difficult to sustain as
some of the volume was drawn out of storage tanks that filled up the previous month, according to
industry sources.
Shipments of northern crude via Turkey remained brisk at
around 600 kb/d, all of which was sold by the KRG. The
semi-autonomous northern region has increased
independent oil sales since mid-June and has cut
allocations to Iraqs State Oil Marketing Organisation
(SOMO) in an escalating row over budget payments and
export rights.
mb/d
Iraq Production and Exports
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15
Baghdad and the KRG are struggling with the strain of oil
below $50/bbl and a costly battle against the Islamic
Basrah exports
Northern exports
State of Iraq and the Levant. The federal government has
IEA Est Production
asked contractors to cut 2015-16 budgets and hold
production steady, while the KRG is struggling to make timely payments to foreign companies developing
its fields. Output, including from the KRG, is likely to remain broadly steady in 2016 versus a 3Q15 rate of
roughly 4.2 mb/d.
Given its urgent budgetary needs and the tumble in crude oil prices, Iraq has every incentive to crank out
as much as it can. With Basra crude at an average $36.42/bbl, record-breaking oil sales earned the
federal government about $3.7 billion in November. Roughly $3.3 billion was earned during October,
when southern exports of just 2.7 mb/d were sold at a higher average price of $39.26/bbl.
Crude oil supply from Iran held steady at 2.87 mb/d in November, but production is due to rise next year
following an anticipated easing of international sanctions. Tehran, which expects sanctions to be
suspended at the start of 2016, says it will deliver an extra 500 kb/d to world markets immediately. Iran
had been producing around 3.6 mb/d in 2011 before
Iranian Oil Imports*
the US and European Union enforced tighter financial mb/d
1.2
3.0
restrictions. Our expectation remains that Iranian oil
2.5
fields are capable of returning to that higher level 1.0
0.8
2.0
within six months of sanctions being eased.
Before it ramps up output, Iran is expected to start to
release substantial volumes of oil stored at sea. At the
end of November, roughly 36 mb of oil, of which 67%
was condensates, was floating in 18 tankers. One
vessel loaded with crude set sail for Asia during
November.
18
0.6
1.5
0.4
1.0
0.2
0.5
0.0
0.0
Jan-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Apr-13Jan-14 Oct-14 Jul-15
Total - RHS
OECD PAC
Other Non-OECD
OECD EUR
China / India
*includes condensate
11 D ECEMBER 2015
S UPPLY
Deliveries of Iranian crude this year have been running at roughly 1.1 mb/d, steady on 2014. Imports of
Iranian crude during November rose to 995 kb/d, up roughly 220 kb/d on October when purchases fell to
the lowest level since international sanctions were tightened. Exports had been running at roughly
2.2 mb/d at the start of 2012. November saw higher purchases from regular buyers China, India, Turkey,
Japan, Syrian and Korea, according to preliminary import figures that are subject to revision. Purchases
of condensate ultra-light oil from the South Pars gas project slipped to 118 kb/d in November from a
2015 peak of around 190 kb/d in October.
Iran is meanwhile pressing ahead with plans for an ambitious upstream opening, once sanctions are
eased. Potential international investors reportedly including Total, Lukoil, Royal Dutch Shell and OMV were presented with details of 70 oil and gas projects at a conference in Tehran at the end of November.
Production from African OPEC members fell by 170 kb/d m-o-m, as exports trended lower, according to
preliminary tanker tracking data. Output in Libya dropped to 380 kb/d in November, down 50 kb/d
m-o-m, after deteriorating security forced the closure of the eastern Zueitina export terminal. A
prolonged battle between the officially recognised government in the east and the so-called Libya Dawn
administration in Tripoli has shut operations at the North African producers strategic oil terminals and
fields, that had pumped 1.6 mb/d prior to the downfall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. Supply from West
African producers declined by 120 kb/d. Angolan output declined by 40 kb/d m-o-m to 1.74 mb/d in
November, while Nigerian output fell to 1.82 mb/d, down 80 kb/d m-o-m.
Turning to Latin America, Venezuelas opposition scored a decisive win in early December elections
putting it in control of the legislature for the first time in 16 years of Socialist rule. Oil below $50/bbl has
dealt a heavy blow to Latin Americas largest oil producer, which is in the grip of a severe economic crisis.
The opposition has promised to put Caracas on the road to economic recovery, but the victory also raises
the risk of prolonged instability. President Nicolas Maduro swiftly recognized the oppositions win. The
Socialist government has diverted much of the revenue earned by state oil company PDVSA to social
programmes, leaving the company strapped for cash. Crude supply bumped up to 2.4 mb/d in
November.
Non-OPEC overview
Non-OPEC production held steady in November at around 58.5 mb/d. A rebound in Canadian oil sands
and Kazakh crude supplies offset seasonally lower biofuels production and strike-affected Brazilian
output. Production from top non-OPEC producers Russia and the US is proving resilient, with the former
inching up to yet another record high in November. US crude and condensate output rose contrary to
expectations in September, with lofty Gulf of Mexico output and Alaskan supply offsetting declines in
onshore output. According to the latest US Energy Information Administration (EIA) statistics, US LTO
production is currently dropping by about 75-115 kb/d per month as legacy declines from existing wells
are exceeding output from new wells.
mb/d
59
Non-OPEC Total Oil Supply
mb/d Total Non-OPEC Supply, y-o-y Change

3.0
2.5
58
2.0
57
1.5
56
1.0
55
0.5
0.0
54
-0.5
53
Jan
11 D ECEMBER 2015
Mar
2013
2015
2016
May
Jul
Sep Nov
Jan
2014
2015 forecast
-1.0
1Q12
1Q13
Other
1Q14
1Q15
North America
1Q16
Total
19
S UPPLY
Industrial action and unscheduled outages have meanwhile slashed output in Brazil and Azerbaijan. A
workers union strike curbed output from Petrobras offshore installation for three weeks in November,
cutting into otherwise robust annual gains in output. A deadly fire at one of Socars offshore platforms in
the Caspian Sea in early December is also, depending on the extent of the damage, expected to curb
output levels from December onwards.
Non-OPEC Supply
2014
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
2015
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
2016
19.0
19.9
19.5
19.9
19.9
19.8
19.5
19.2
19.3
19.6
19.4
Europe
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.0
3.3
3.2
Asia Oceania
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Total OECD
22.9
23.7
23.4
23.8
23.8
23.7
23.4
23.0
22.9
23.4
23.2
Former USSR
Americas
13.9
14.0
14.0
13.9
13.9
14.0
13.9
13.9
13.8
13.8
13.9
Europe
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
China
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
Other Asia
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.5
Latin America
4.4
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
Middle East
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.2
Africa
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
Total Non-OECD
28.9
29.5
29.3
29.2
29.1
29.3
29.1
29.0
28.9
29.0
29.0
Processing Gains
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.3
Global Biofuels
2.2
1.8
2.4
2.6
2.4
2.3
1.9
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.4
Total Non-OPEC
57.0
58.1
58.2
58.6
58.4
58.3
57.6
57.5
57.7
57.9
57.7
Annual Chg (mb/d)
2.4
2.2
1.5
1.4
0.1
1.3
-0.5
-0.7
-0.9
-0.4
-0.6
Changes from last OMR (mb/d)
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
0.9
Non-OPEC output growth has nevertheless come down from recent highs. Annual gains are pegged at
less than 0.3 mb/d for November, down from 2.2 mb/d at the start of the year. The United States,
Canada, Russia, the UK and global biofuels make up the bulk of the year-on-year growth, with Brazil,
Mexico, Kazakhstan and Malaysia expected to see the steepest declines. The forecast for non-OPEC
output for 2016 is largely unchanged since last months Report, slipping by 0.6 mb/d to 57.7 mb/d. Total
non-OPEC oil output is on track to expand by 1.3 mb/d in 2015.
OECD
North America
US September actual, Alaska November preliminary: Contrary to expectations, US crude oil
production increased by 40 kb/d in September to just shy of 9.4 mb/d, with continued gains in the
Offshore Gulf of Mexico (+38 kb/d) and a rebound in Alaskan output (+65 kb/d) offsetting onshore
declines. The steepest falls stemmed from North Dakota and Colorado, where the Bakken and Niobrara
LTO plays dominate supplies, while Texas output held steady. A small increase in NGL production and
other non-crude liquids lifted total output by a further 40 kb/d from the previous month. Compared with
a year earlier, US oil supplies were 650 kb/d higher, significantly stronger than previously expected but
down sharply from the more than 2.1 mb/d gains seen at the tail end of 2014. The forecast for US oil
production is largely unchanged since last months Report, however, declining by 415 kb/d in total to
12.4 mb/d in 2016.
Despite resilient recent output levels, US shale production is falling fast as there are no longer enough
completed wells to compensate for declines at existing wells. According to the EIAs Drilling Productivity
Report, legacy declines from existing wells by December have been exceeding output from new wells
since May, with total production set to fall by 95 kb/d in November and 115 kb/d in December. Only the
most prolific shale wells are still profitable with prices at around $40/bbl. Drilling activity has fallen by
60% compared with a year ago and new wells added only an estimated 235 kb/d in December, two thirds
of the DPRs estimated legacy decline rate.
20
11 D ECEMBER 2015
mb/d
13.5
13.0
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
United States Total Oil Supply
S UPPLY
mb/d
2.0
US Total Oil Supply - Yearly Change
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Jan
Mar
2013
2015
2016
May
Jul
Sep Nov
Jan
2014
2015 forecast
-1.0
1Q12
1Q13
1Q14
Alaska
Gulf of Mexico
Other
1Q15
California
NGLs
Total
1Q16
Texas
North Dakota
According to oil services company Baker Hughes, US energy firms cut the number of oilrigs for a
13th consecutive week in early December, suggesting drillers are waiting for prices to rebound before
returning to the well pad. Drillers removed 10 oilrigs in the week ending 4 December, bringing the total
rig count down to 545, its lowest level since June 2010. That decrease brings the total rig count down
two-thirds from the 1609 rigs operating at the peak in October last year. In the latest week, drillers
removed five rigs in the Permian, two in the Bakken and one in the Niobrara basin. The number of rigs in
the Eagle Ford in South Texas remained unchanged.
1800
kb/d
500
1600
400
1400
300
1200
200
1000
100
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
US LTO Monthly Output Change
800
600
-100
400
-200
Jan-10
200
0
Jan 09
Jan-12
Net change
Jan 11
Jan 13
Jan 15
Legacy decline (-)
Jan-14
New production
Source: EIA DPR
Canada September actual: In line with our previous estimate, Canadian oil supplies plunged by
550 kb/d in September from a month earlier on lower oilsands output. Albertan bitumen production
dropped by 125 kb/d from a month earlier, while upgraded output declined by nearly 400 kb/d to
770 kb/d on average due to an outage at Syncrudes oilsands upgrader. Production from offshore fields
in Newfoundland meanwhile slipped by 20 kb/d, despite a resumption of oil flows at the Suncor
operated Terra Nova facility after maintenance, as Exxons Hibernia field saw output drop by nearly half,
to just over 50 kb/d.
Output is expected to have rebounded in October and November, with Canadian Oil Sands announcing in
early October normal operations at the Syncrude upgrader following the 29 August fire. Output at the
facility rose from 63 kb/d in September to 214 kb/d in October and 323 kb/d last month. Canadian oil
production should see continued output gains in coming months as newly commissioned projects
continue to ramp up towards capacity. Imperial oil completed its Kearl expansion project in June, which
should ultimately double the oils sands projects capacity to 220 kb/d. ConocoPhillips, meanwhile,
started up the second phase of its Surmont oilsands project, adding 118 kb/d of new capacity.
11 D ECEMBER 2015
21
S UPPLY
mb/d
5.0
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
Canada Total Oil Supply
mb/d
Canadian Oil Sands Output
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Jan
Mar
2013
2015
2016
May
Jul
Sep Nov
Jan
2014
2015 forecast
0.0
1Q11
1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16

Synthetic Crude
In Situ Bitumen
Enbridges newly reversed Line 9 started crude deliveries to refineries in Eastern Canada in December.
The 300 kb/d pipeline will bring 250 kb/d of light and 50 kb/d of heavy crude oil from Sarnia, Ontario, to
Montreal. Valero reportedly received its first shipment of light crude off the pipeline at its Montreal
terminal, where it will ship it by barge to the 265 kb/d Jean Gaulin refinery near Quebec City. Suncor
announced it was starting line-fill for its 137 kb/d Montreal refinery. Both Suncor and Valero have said
the reversal of Line 9 will allow them to run a 100% North American crude slate. Both of those refineries
already have some access to domestic crudes through rail terminals. Canada, a significant net-crude
exporter, imported an average of 850 kb/d of crude oil in the first nine months of the year, of which only
315 kb/d, or 37%, was non-US.
Mexico October actual, November provisional: Preliminary data for Mexico show crude output
holding steady in November at just below 2.3 mb/d. Annual declines narrowed further from a high of
275 kb/d recorded in April of this year, to around 85-90 kb/d over the past two months. Pemexs legacy
Cantarell field continued to account for the bulk of the drop, declining by around 90 kb/d in October, the
last month for which full monthly data are available. In the absence of any hurricane or other significant
storm outages affecting output this season, Mexican oil output for 4Q15 was revised up by 20 kb/d since
last months Report. After its precipitous drop of 200 kb/d this year, total output is forecast to decline by
70 kb/d in 2016, to 2.53 mb/d.
mb/d
3.0
Mexico Total Oil Supply
kb/d
100
Mexican Crude Oil Output by Area

Annual change
2.9
2.8
2.7
-100
2.6
-200
2.5
2.4
Jan
Mar
2013
2015
2016
May
Jul
Sep Nov
Jan
2014
2015 forecast
-300
Jan-2013
Jan-2014
Cantarell
SE Offshore
N Onshore
Jan-2015
Ku-Maloob-Zaap
S Offshore
Total Crude
In early December, Mexican regulators prequalified 79 firms to participate in the tender to develop
25 onshore mature blocks on offer in the north, central and southern regions. The licensing round, which
is the third since last years energy reform ended state-owned Pemexs upstream monopoly, will be held
on 15 December. Mexico hopes the auction, designed to attract smaller companies and local
independents, will boost production by 36 kb/d of oil and 223 bcm/yr of gas in the first five years
through investment of $620 million. The first two tenders in Mexicos upstream opening drew 25 and
14 companies respectively for shallow water areas.
22
11 D ECEMBER 2015
S UPPLY
North Sea
North Sea oil supplies bounced back in October, jumping 140 kb/d from September, according to
preliminary data. Maintenance had curbed supplies on both the UK and Norwegian shelf in August and
September, though volumes continued to exceed those of the previous year. In all, North Sea oil output
was 100 kb/d higher than the same month a year earlier in October, compared with annual gains of an
average 300 kb/d over the previous five months. North Sea producers are on track to lift production by
120 kb/d for the year, before field declines and a return to normal maintenance shutdowns, drag
volumes down 155 kb/d in 2016, to 2.88 mb/d on average.
kb/d
mb/d
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
North Sea Total Oil Supply
BFOE Loadings & Production
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
Jan
Mar
2013
2015
2016
May
Jul
Sep Nov
Jan
2014
2015 forecast
500
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
BFOE Loadings
*Source: Reuters
Jul-15
BFOE Crude
Output from the four streams that make up the North Sea benchmark, Brent, Forties Oseberg and
Ekofisk, is scheduled to reach a four-year high in January according to a Reuters survey of loading
schedules. Loadings are expected to rise to an average of 974 kb/d in January, from 929 kb/d originally
reported for December. Loadings of the 12 largest North Sea crude streams tracked by Reuters was
pegged at 2.055 mb/d in December, about 30 kb/d less than that of November but up 75 kb/d y-o-y.
BFOE loadings finally came in at 1.026 mb/d in December, up 45 kb/d from November.
UK September actual, October preliminary: After three months of monthly declines, total UK oil output
recovered over September and October. Total oil output rose by around 60 kb/d in September after
output had fallen by nearly 70 kb/d a month earlier. Preliminary data submitted through the Joint Oil
Data Initiative suggest output rose by roughly the same amount also in October to around 960 kb/d.
Detailed field level data show that output from BPs ETAP cluster of fields dropped to near zero in
August. The recently commissioned Kinnoul field saw production slip from 36 kb/d in July to 11 kb/d in
August. Nexens Buzzard field saw its highest output 10 months, of 185 kb/d. As the field only produced
7 kb/d in August of last year, total UK production stood an impressive 320 kb/d above its year-earlier
levels that month. Annual gains retreated to 100 kb/d over September and October, and were up by an
average 80 kb/d for the first ten months of the year.
kb/d
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
United Kingdom Total Oil Supply
mb/d
2.1
Norway Total Oil Supply
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
Jan
11 D ECEMBER 2015
Mar
2013
2015
2016
May
Jul
Sep Nov
Jan
2014
2015 forecast
Jan
Mar
2013
2015
2016
May
Jul
Sep Nov
Jan
2014
2015 forecast
23
S UPPLY
Norway September actual, October provisional: Norwegian oil output rebounded by 85 kb/d in
October, to nearly 1.95 mb/d. Widespread maintenance had curbed production by 60 kb/d a month
earlier, with drops from a number of fields, including Balder (-27 kb/d), Aasgard NGLs(-15 kb/d), Vigdis
(-11 kb/d) and Snorre (-12 kb/d). A 15 kb/d increase at the Knarr field provided a partial offset. The field,
which started production in March, reached output of 35 kb/d in the latest month for which field level
data are available. September output nevertheless stood 65 kb/d above a year prior while October
production was equal to that of a year ago.
In early December, independent exploration company Lundin reported first oil at its Edvard Grieg
development on the Utsira High area in the North Sea. The field, which is estimated to hold 187 million
barrels of oil, is expected to reach plateau production at around 75 kboe/d by the end of next year.
Lundin reported that the $2.88 billion Edvard Grieg platform, completed both on time and on budget,
will serve as processing host to the nearby Ivar Aasen development, which is due on stream next year.
Non-OECD
Latin America
Brazil October actual: Total Brazilian crude oil production was relatively unchanged from a month
earlier in October, at around 2.4 mb/d, despite a recovery in output at the Roncador field. Field level
data reveal that output recovered by nearly 70 kb/d from September, when Petrobras shut one of the
main production platforms for maintenance. Lower output at a number of other fields, including Lula,
which saw lower output for a second consecutive month, provided an offset. The massive Lula field
developement nevertheless saw output 130 kb/d above a year earlier, at around 330 kb/d.
mb/d
3.0
Brazil Total Oil Supply
kb/d
2.8
500
2.6
400
2.4
300
2.2
200
2.0
100
1.8
Jan
Mar
2013
2015
2016
May
Jul
Jan
Sep Nov
2014
2015 forecast
Brazilian Oil Production

Annual Growth
0
-100
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
Jul 15
As heavy maintenance continued to restrict flows, total oil output was also roughly equal to that of a
year earlier in October, compared with average growth of 240 kb/d over the first nine months of the
year. In November, Brazilian oil supplies are estimated to have declined y-o-y for the first time since July
2013. Output is estimated to have dropped nearly 160 kb/d as a national oil workers strike crippled
output at offshore installations. The strike, which started on 1 November, lasted three weeks.
Asia
Indonesia: With Indonesia reactivating its OPEC membership from 4 December, the countrys production
levels are again under scrutiny. While no official production numbers are available since 2014, OPECs
only Asian member looks set to miss its production target for the year. An energy official from upstream
oil and gas regulator SKKMigas was reported to have said Indonesian oil output would likely fall short of
an earlier target of 825 kb/d for the year, with output likely to come in closer to 790 kb/d. The Exxonoperated Banyu Urip field in the Cepu block, which started up earlier in 2015 will reportedly only reach
peak output of 165 kb/d in early 2016, several months later than earlier expectations. Malaysias
24
11 D ECEMBER 2015
S UPPLY
Petronas meanwhile reported first oil and gas from its offshore Bukit Tua field in November in East Java,
Indonesia. The field is expected to produce 20 kb/d of oil and up to 50 MMscf/d of gas. As a result of
these latest updates, our estimate for total Indonesian oil production for 2015 has been lowered by
roughly 20 kb/d since last months Report to 830 kb/d. Of this, crude oil is estimated to have accounted
for just shy of 700 kb/d, with condensate output of
around 90 kb/d and other natural gas liquids (NGLs) of mb/d
Indonesian Oil Output
43 kb/d making up the difference. Total Indonesian oil 1.8
production is forecast to increase to 855 kb/d in 2016 as 1.6
1.4
Banyu Urip and Bukit Tua ramp up to full capacity.
Indonesian oil production will be removed from NonOPEC totals and included with OPEC from the January
OMR, when December production levels will be assessed.
Condensate production will at this time be subtracted
from the crude and condensate total and included with
NGLs as is custom for all OPEC countries.
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Crude
Condensates
NGLs
Africa
Since last months Report, a revisit of our outlook for Congos production has resulted in an upward
revision of 80 kb/d for oil African oil output next year. Chevron sanctioned its 40 kb/d Lianzi project,
which straddles the border of Angola, last month, and Total is set to bring on Phase 1 of its Moho Bilondo
phase by the end of the year, adding 40 kb/d to total production. The French major is expected to
complete the Moho Nord extension in 2016, adding another 100 kb/d of oil output. Eni meanwhile
reported first oil from its Nene Marine field in January 2015. While output from the first phase of the
project is expected to yield only 7.5 kb/d, the company plans to bring on the second phase of 40 kb/d in
the second half of 2016. Longer term, development of the field will occur in several stages, and Eni is
expecting to reach a plateau of over 120 kboe/d. Enis Litchendjili gas project is also on track to start up
in late 2015-early 2016, yielding an additional 20 kb/d of crude, condensates and gas liquids. Congos
total oil production is estimated to add 50 kb/d in 2016, to 305 kb/d in total.
Former Soviet Union

Russia October actual, November provisional: Russian oil output persisted at record highs in
November, underscoring the countrys resilience to lower oil prices and sanctions. Crude and condensate
production was 10.78 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month. Output growth came from Bashneft,
Tatneft and Gazprom Neft, while Rosneft and Lukoil reported continued production declines.
According to Russian investment bank Sberbank, development drilling in Russia expanded 10% from a
year earlier over the first 10 months of the year. The highest growth was reported for Rosneft (41%),
Bashneft and Tatneft (46% and 128%, respectively). However, despite increased drilling at Rosnefts
Yuganskneftegaz (up 51%) and Samotlorneftegaz (up 310%) subsidiaries, total Rosneft production
slipped by 1% from a year ago. Lukoil, Russias second largest producer, meanwhile reported overall cuts
in drilling of 26% from a year earlier, with activity at the companys mature West Siberian fields down by
34%. As a result, output in the region, which accounts for roughly half of Lukoils total output, slipped to
900 kb/d from 965 kb/d a year earlier. Lukoil now expects to resume production growth in Russia no
earlier than 2017, following commissioning of its Filanovsky and Pyakyakhinskoye fields.
As discussed in Russia robust through 2016 in last months Report, recent growth in Russia's liquids
output has been coming mostly from gas condensates, and in particular from SeverEnergia, a joint
venture between Novatek and Gazprom. Novatek will add further output growth in 2016 through its
Yargeo joint venture with Nefter Petroleum. The company launched a new oil field in West Siberia on
11 D ECEMBER 2015
25
S UPPLY
1 December. The Yarudeyskoye field, which is Novateks first crude oil project, will have a capacity of
around 70 kb/d.
Production is forecast to remain largely flat into 2016 as the commissioning of several greenfields offsets
declines at mature fields. In the longer term, output is expected to decline however, as lower prices and
capex cuts as well as ongoing uncertainties over the state's tax policies and sanctions trigger production
declines.
mb/d
11.2
Russia Total Oil Supply
Azerbaijan Total Oil Supply
kb/d
1000
950
11.1
900
11.0
850
10.9
800
10.8
750
10.7
700
10.6
650
Jan
Mar
2013
2015
2016
May
Jul
Sep Nov
Jan
2014
2015 forecast
Jan
Mar
2013
2015
2016
May
Jul
Sep Nov
Jan
2014
2015 forecast
Azerbaijan October actual: Azeri oil output dropped by 20 kb/d to 840 kb/d in October, the latest
month for which data are available. Preliminary estimates of November supplies imply production
slipping further in November, as BP completed a 25-day planned maintenance shutdown at its Chirag
platform. Output form the Azeri, Chirag and Guneshli (ACG) fields, which account for about 75% of
Azerbaijan's production, averaged 635 kb/d in October. For the year to date, total crude oil and
condensate production in Azerbaijan fell 33 kb/d compared to a year earlier, driven by falling oil output
from the ACG fields.
In December, a deadly fire at one of Socars offshore platforms in the Caspian Sea in early December is
expected to impact output in coming months. The platform, reportedly accounting for about 60% of
Socars oil output, which totalled 137 kb/d in October, was damaged by a fire after heavy seas damaged
a subsea gas line. While little information on the extent of the damage is known at this time, severe
storm hampering efforts to stem the damage and evacuate workers could suggest that the platform
could mean that the platform might be off for some time. Oil production on 28 wells linked to the facility
was suspended and all oil and gas pipelines which link the platform with land were blocked as a safety
precaution. Reports emerged later of a fire that struck a second platform.
Kazakhstan October actual: Kazakhstans oil production was unchanged at 1.56 mb/d, 85 kb/d below a
year ago. Tengiz output was constrained for a third month running, at around 450 kb/d, compared with
an average 570 kb/d over the first half of the year. Karachaganak output meanwhile rebounded from
Septembers 28 month low of 241 kb/d, to 280 kb/d, according to Caspian Investor.
FSU net oil exports FSU net-exports increased by 110 kb/d in October to 9.43 mb/d, a significant
450 kb/d above one year earlier. Unlike recent months, the uptick was driven by surging refined product
shipments (+200 kb/d) which more than offset a 100 kb/d drop in crude exports. The fall in crude
volumes was driven by a decline in exports from other FSU states. In contrast, Russian exports rose by
210 kb/d to 4.7 mb/d amid close-to-record production and as the Russian Rouble remains weak against
the US dollar. The largest monthly decline was posted in deliveries through the CPC pipeline (-220 kb/d)
which fell amid maintenance on the ACG group of fields. According to reports, the project to expand the
CPC line to 1.6 mb/d is almost complete. However, it will not reach capacity until oil from the muchdelayed Kashagan project enters the line; this is currently expected in 2017.
26
11 D ECEMBER 2015
S UPPLY
Despite the protracted delays to the start-up of Kashagan, exports of Kazakhstans CPC Blend crude
continue to increase, with record high loadings scheduled for December. With the pipeline and terminal
expanded, oil that was previously exported via rail to Black Sea terminals or over the Caspian Sea to
Azerbaijan via the BTC pipeline have dwindled. As a result, deliveries out of the CPC Blend terminal north
of Novorossiisk have jumped dramatically, breaking the 1 mb/d mark again in November, with even
higher volumes scheduled for December. CPC Blend is now the single largest source of crude supply in
the Mediterranean, surpassing both Russians Urals grade and northern Iraqi crude sold by the Kurdish
Regional Government.
FSU Net Exports of Crude & Petroleum Products
2013
2014
4Q2014 1Q2015 2Q2015 3Q2015
Aug 15 Sep 15
Oct 15
Latest month vs.

Sep 15 Oct 14
Crude
Black Sea
1.78
1.62
1.50
1.83
1.56
1.59
1.46
1.70
1.54
-0.16
0.06
Baltic
1.57
1.33
1.20
1.47
1.45
1.38
1.31
1.57
1.53
-0.04
0.16
Arctic/FarEast
0.81
1.14
1.26
1.36
1.41
1.41
1.36
1.44
1.49
0.04
0.20
BTC
0.64
0.60
0.55
0.64
0.61
0.61
0.55
0.55
0.61
0.06
0.01
Crude Seaborne
4.80
4.69
4.51
5.29
5.03
4.98
4.69
5.27
5.16
-0.11
0.42
Druzhba Pipeline
1.03
1.01
0.99
1.07
1.08
1.06
1.04
1.09
1.15
0.06
0.13
Other Routes
0.57
0.40
0.21
0.25
0.24
0.23
0.20
0.26
0.23
-0.04
0.01
Total Crude Exports
6.40
6.14
5.81
6.61
6.35
6.27
5.93
6.62
6.53
-0.09
0.43
Of Which: CPC Pipeline

Of Which: Transneft1
0.71
0.85
0.89
0.99
0.90
0.91
0.78
1.03
0.81
-0.22
0.03
4.08
3.88
3.65
4.27
4.16
4.08
3.96
4.29
4.40
0.11
0.41
Products
Fuel oil2
1.64
1.72
1.71
1.65
1.51
1.31
1.27
1.38
1.38
0.00
-0.24
Gasoil
0.85
0.95
0.88
1.22
1.03
0.82
0.81
0.81
0.87
0.06
0.07
Other Products
0.51
0.57
0.50
0.73
0.69
0.58
0.54
0.58
0.71
0.14
0.18
Total Product
3.00
3.25
3.09
3.61
3.23
2.71
2.62
2.76
2.96
0.20
0.00
Total Exports
9.40
9.38
8.90
10.22
9.58
8.98
8.56
9.39
9.49
0.11
0.43
Imports
0.08
0.08
0.10
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
-0.02
Net Exports
9.32
9.30
8.81
10.17
9.53
8.91
8.49
9.32
9.43
0.11
0.45
Sources: Argus Media Ltd, IEA estimates

1
Transneft data exclude Russian CPC volumes.

Includes Vacuum Gas Oil
In the East, the dredging operation to permit Suezmax tankers to call at Kozmino is complete and
October saw the first oil loaded onto one of these 1 mb vessels. According to tanker tracking data, both
Japan and China are now using these vessels to import ESPO oil. Despite a brief weather-related closure,
exports from the terminal rose by 50 kb/d m o m to 650 kb/d, the second highest on record. Looking
forward, Russian seaborne loading schedules suggest that exports should rise slightly in November
before falling once again in December.
Despite Russian refinery throughputs falling by close to 300 kb/d m-o-m in October, refined product
exports hit 3.0 mb/d (+200 kb/d m-o-m), their highest since May. Light products (here included under
other products) accounted for the bulk of the rise. Naphtha increased by 50 kb/d as deliveries to
Northern ports were hiked, meanwhile gasoline exports surged by 75 kb/d, again as flows increased from
Northern Russia.
11 D ECEMBER 2015
27
OECD S TOCKS
OECD STOCKS
Summary
World oil markets will remain oversupplied at least until late 2016, according to our latest demand
and supply projections, although the pace of global stock builds should roughly halve next year. An
impressive 300 mb of oil is still expected to pile into inventories, but tank tops should not come under
pressure due to spare storage capacity in the US and expectations of future capacity additions.
OECD commercial inventories drew for the first time in seven months in October to stand at
2 971 mb at end-month. Since the 8.2 mb draw was more gentle than the 20.7 mb five-year average
draw for the month, inventories surplus to average levels widened to 260 mb.
Plunging refined product stocks (29.8 mb) pressured inventories and more than offset a combined
21.6 mb build in crude oil, NGLs and other feedstocks. Products drew as OECD refinery runs touched
a seasonal low. At end-October, product inventories covered 31.7 days of forward demand cover,
0.6 days below end-September but 2.1 days above one year earlier.
Despite middle distillate stocks drawing, by end-October they stood at a significant 43 mb surplus
to average levels and covered 33.1 days of forward demand, 3.6 days above the previous year. The
majority of the surplus remains in Europe, although logistical bottlenecks are preventing stocks in the
Northwest of the continent from draining into central land-locked markets.
As crude inventories rose by 5.8 mb at the Cushing Oklahoma storage hub in November, the
contango in the NYMEX WTI contract steepened so that the discount of prompt barrels to those for
delivery in two months time widened to $1.30/bbl at end-November from $0.90/bbl one month
earlier.
Preliminary data suggest that OECD inventories inched down by 1.7 mb in November, far less than
the 11.6 mb average draw for the month. Crude oil stocks remained steady after they were
buttressed by a counter-seasonal build in the US while refined products drew.
mb/d Demand/Supply Balance until 4Q16* mb/d
98
3.5
96
2.5
94
1.5
92
0.5
90
-0.5
88
-1.5
86
84
-2.5
1Q09 3Q10 1Q12 3Q13 1Q15 3Q16
Impl. stock ch.&misc (RHS)
Demand
Supply*
*ht9/ output assumed steady at 31.7mb/d through aarch 2016. A gradual

ramp-up of Iranian production is expected during 2Q16 to 600/kb/d in June.
mb
3,000
OECD Total Oil Stocks
2,900
2,800
2,700
2,600
2,500
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
Nov
Jan
2012
Global overview
Global oil markets remain oversupplied and, according to our latest demand and supply balances, the
current imbalance will persist at least until late 2016. Nonetheless, the pace of global stock builds should
roughly halve next year with inventories projected to add just over 300 mb. The vast majority of next
years build is expected in the first half of the year before tailing off during the third and fourth quarters.
28
11 D ECEMBER 2015
OECD S TOCKS
Despite the scale of these expected builds, global storage capacity should not come under pressure.
Much of the excess oil will be soaked up by the 230 mb of new storage capacity slated to be
commissioned in 2016. More than half of this will be new SPR capacity in China and India while the rest
will be new terminals or expansions of existing commercial storage sites in North America (34 mb), China
(26 mb), the Middle East (5 mb), Europe (3 mb) and elsewhere. It should be noted that these volumes do
not include new storage at refineries. Although data on storage capacity are scarce, data suggest that
current inventory levels in many European states are well below record levels.
Additionally, latest data from the US EIA suggest that US inventories are 70% full, leaving roughly 100 mb
of spare capacity. Nonetheless, capacity at key terminals (often the delivery points for oil contracts)
could come under pressure as has already been seen in the ARA (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp)
region and at Cushing. This has the ability to send pricing signals to market participants. Indeed, NYMEX
WTI prompt prices have come under pressure in recent weeks as inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma
storage hub have exceeded 80% of working capacity. Meanwhile, time spreads in the ICE Brent forward
curve remain at levels that do not support floating storage which suggests that volumes held off ARA and
US Gulf are due to unloading delays rather than speculation. Moreover, the spread in the M1 M3 ICE
Brent market stood at about $1.15/bbl in early-December far less than the $8.00/bbl that was reached
during the so-called super contango in 2008-2010.
OECD inventory position at end-October and revisions to preliminary data

OECD commercial inventories drew for the first time in seven months in October to stand at 2 971 mb at
end-month. However, since the 8.2 mb draw was far more gentle than the 20.7 mb five-year average
draw for the month, inventories surplus to average levels widened to 260 mb from a downwardlyrevised 248 mb one month earlier.
Preliminary Industry Stock Change in October 2015 and Third Quarter 2015
(million barrels)
Am
Crude Oil
Gasoline
Middle Distillates
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total Products
Other Oils1
Total Oil
21.4
-10.7
-12.3
3.1
-4.9
-24.8
-0.6
-3.9
Europe
As. Ocean
4.2
0.4
0.6
0.6
-1.2
0.3
-0.5
4.0
-1.5
-0.1
-1.5
-0.4
-3.4
-5.3
-1.5
-8.3
October 2015 (preliminary)

Total
24.1
-10.5
-13.2
3.3
-9.4
-29.8
-2.5
-8.2
Third Quarter 2015

Am
Europe
As. Ocean
Total
Am
Europe
As. Ocean
Total
0.69
-0.35
-0.40
0.10
-0.16
-0.80
-0.02
-0.13
0.13
0.01
0.02
0.02
-0.04
0.01
-0.02
0.13
-0.05
0.00
-0.05
-0.01
-0.11
-0.17
-0.05
-0.27
0.78
-0.34
-0.43
0.11
-0.30
-0.96
-0.08
-0.27
-0.11
0.07
0.07
-0.01
0.19
0.31
0.15
0.35
-0.05
0.04
0.26
0.02
0.03
0.36
-0.03
0.28
0.01
-0.02
0.06
0.03
0.04
0.11
0.04
0.17
-0.15
0.09
0.40
0.04
0.26
0.78
0.16
0.80
1 Other oils includes NGLs, feedstocks and other hydrocarbons.
The monthly draw was driven by plunging refined product stocks (-29.8 mb) which more than offset a
combined 21.6 mb build in crude oil, NGLs and other feedstocks. Product holdings were pressured lower
by OECD refinery runs that fell close to 900 kb/d to touch a seasonal low amid turnarounds in all regions.
This saw declines of 13.2 mb, 10.5 mb and 9.5 mb in middle distillates, motor gasoline and other
products, respectively. Despite these drops, stock levels of all products bar motor gasoline stood above
average by end-October. Since the fall in middle distillates was only about two thirds of the average draw
for the month, the surplus of inventories to seasonal levels widened to 43 mb at end-month from 35 mb
one month earlier. OECD middle distillate stocks now cover 33.1 days of forward demand, 3.6 days
above the previous year. All told, OECD refined product inventories provided 31.7 days of forward
demand cover at end-October, 0.6 days below end-September but 1.8 days above one year earlier.
Upon the receipt of more complete data, OECD inventories were adjusted down by 9.1 mb in September,
which together with a -0.4 mb amendment to August, saw September inventories build counterseasonally by 5.1 mb, weaker than the 13.8 mb presented in last months Report. The revision was
centred in the OECD Americas where data came in 7.9 mb lower with the US accounting for the majority
(5.5 mb). Meanwhile, stocks in Asia Oceania were revised 4.6 mb lower with Japanese crude oil holdings
11 D ECEMBER 2015
29
OECD S TOCKS
accounting for 3.9 mb. On the other hand, some offset was provided by European inventories that were
adjusted 3.4 mb higher.
Revisions versus 13 November 2015 Oil Market Report
(million barrels)
Americas
Crude Oil
Gasoline
Middle Distillates
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total Products
Other Oils1
Total Oil
Europe
Asia Oceania
Aug-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
-0.7
0.0
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.9
-4.0
-2.0
-4.5
1.4
-1.4
-6.5
2.6
-7.9
0.8
-0.1
-0.7
0.0
0.0
-0.7
0.0
0.1
-2.5
3.8
4.3
-2.1
-0.7
5.3
0.5
3.4
Aug-15
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
OECD
Sep-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
-4.8
0.3
-0.4
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
-4.6
0.5
-0.1
-0.6
-0.1
0.0
-0.8
-0.1
-0.4
-11.3
2.1
-0.7
-0.6
-1.9
-1.1
3.2
-9.1
1 Other oils includes NGLs, feedstocks and other hydrocarbons.
Preliminary data suggest that OECD inventories inched down by 1.7 mb in November, far less than the
11.6 mb average draw for the month. Crude oil stocks fell by a weak 1.6 mb during a month they would
normally draw by 7.8 mb, after stocks were buttressed by an unseasonal build in the US. Refined
products slipped counter-seasonally by 1.6 mb with other products falling by 11.9 mb while motor
gasoline rose by 3.2 mb, significantly weaker than the 9.6 average build over the past five years.
Meanwhile, middle distillates rose by a steeper-than-average 6.9 mb.
Recent OECD industry stock changes

OECD Americas
During October, commercial inventories in the OECD Americas slipped by 4.0 mb. By end-month, they
stood at 1.57 billion barrels, a record 191 mb above average. Refined products (-24.8 mb) plummeted in
line with seasonal trends as regional refiners remained in turnarounds while stockholders in the US
typically destock refined products during the fourth quarter to lessen their end of year tax burden. As
refiners reduced runs and despite domestic production waning, crude oil stocks rose by 21.4 mb, their
steepest build since March with data suggesting that transatlantic arrivals into the US remained relatively
high given the narrow WTI / Brent spread.
Motor gasoline dropped by a steep 10.7 mb, nearly twice the seasonal average but by end-month still
stood at a surplus (5 mb) to average levels. Exports appear to have weighed on stocks with US gasoline
shipments hitting 500 kb/d in October, 100 kb/d above one year earlier. Middle distillates drew
seasonally by 12.3 mb but levels remained about 1 mb above average. Inventories of other products
slipped by 4.9 mb, weaker than the 7.4 mb average draw for the month as demand for propane
remained underwhelming in the face of drier-than-usual weather in the US mid-west which decreased
agricultural demand. At end-month, refined products covered 30.3 days of forward demand, 1.0 day
below one month earlier but 1.9 days above one year ago.
Preliminary weekly data from the US EIA suggest that US inventories built counter seasonally by 4.8 mb
in November. Despite refiners exiting turnarounds, commercial crude oil holdings defied seasonal trends
and added 4.5 mb to stand a record 500 mb by end-month. However, these volumes include about
120 mb of pipeline fill, cargoes in transit from Alaska and volumes used as lease stocks. When
subtracting these volumes and examining the most recent EIA survey of storage capacity (containing
data as of 30 September 2015), this equates to almost 70% of working storage capacity.
30
11 D ECEMBER 2015
US Weekly Commercial Crude

Stocks
mb
500
480
460
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
Jan
OECD S TOCKS
NYMEX WTI
Front Month Spreads
$/bbl
3.0
Backwardation
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
Source: EIA
Apr
Range 2010-14
2014
Jul
Oct
5-yr Average
-2.0
Contango
Source: NYMEX
-3.0
Jan 14 May 14 Sep 14 Jan 15 May 15 Sep 15
WTI M1-M2
2015
Inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage terminal the delivery point of the NYMEX WTI contract
rose by 5.8 mb in November to 59 mb, equating to 81% of capacity. This has pressured NYMEX WTI
prompt prices downwards signalling that capacity is becoming a concern. Accordingly, the discount of
prompt WTI barrels over those for delivery in two months time widened to $1.30/bbl at end-November
from $0.90 /bbl one month earlier. Capacity in the US Gulf Coast (PADD 3) region stands at about two
thirds full. This suggests that the near-40 mb of volumes held in tankers moored in the US Gulf is there
due to logistical delays rather than because storage tanks are full.
Refined products inventories inched down counterseasonally by 1.2 mb in November. This was driven by
other products which adhered to seasonal trends,
dropping by 10.1 mb as demand for space heating and
from agriculture increased. Meanwhile, motor gasoline
rose by 2.2 mb, considerably weaker than the 9.4 mb
seasonal build for the month. As with October, it is likely
that builds in gasoline were tempered amid high exports
that hit 600 kb/d, double levels of a year earlier. At endmonth, national middle distillates holdings stood 9.3 mb
above average with distillate heating oil stocks in the key
PADD 1 market standing 75% (27 mb) above one year
earlier.
mb
US Weekly PADD 1 Distillate Stocks
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Jan
Source: EIA
Apr
Jul
Range 2010-2014
Oct
5-yr Average
2014
2015
OECD Europe
European commercial inventories bucked seasonal trends and built by 4.0 mb in October. As refiners
remained in maintenance, crude oil stocks added a seasonal 4.2 mb with inventories surplus to average
levels standing at 17 mb at end-month. Refined products inched down by 0.3 mb, far weaker than the
11.4 mb five-year average draw. Consequently, the overhang of refined products to average levels
ballooned to 34 mb from 22 mb one month earlier. It is likely that stocks drew weakly due to the ongoing
problems evacuating products from the ARA region to the inland continent (see European stocks diverge
on logistical bottlenecks) with the Netherlands notably posting a weaker than average draw. Middle
distillates (+0.6 mb), fuel oil (+0.6 mb) and motor gasoline (+0.4 mb) posted small counter-seasonal
declines while other products (-1.2 mb) fell in line with seasonal trends. All told, at end-month refined
products covered 42.2 days of forward demand, 1.1 days and 4.5 days above last year and one year
earlier, respectively.
Preliminary data from Euroilstocks suggest that European commercial holdings adhered to seasonal
trends and inched up by 0.8 mb in November. As refiners continued to come out of maintenance, stocks
of crude oil decreased by 1.1 mb. However, despite refinery throughputs remaining above a year ago,
this was significantly less than the 3.7 mb average draw for the months as regional crude production
11 D ECEMBER 2015
31
OECD S TOCKS
remained well above a year ago and imports, especially from Russia and West Africa remained high. The
increase in refinery activity saw products rise by 1.9 mb as middle distillates, motor gasoline and other
products posted builds of 1.2 mb, 0.7 mb and 0.4 mb, respectively. This more-than-offset a 0.4 draw in
fuel oil.
mb
375
OECD Europe Crude Oil Stocks
365
days
42
355
41
345
40
335
39
325
38
315
37
305
36
295
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2010-2014
2014
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2010-2014
35
Jan
2015
OECD Europe Total Products Stocks

Days of Forward Demand
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2010-2014
2014
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2010-2014
2015
European stocks diverge on logistical bottlenecks

Despite European refined product inventories standing a comfortable 34 mb above average at end-October,
it has become increasingly apparent that regional stocks in coastal areas and in inland Europe are on
diverging paths. The main factor behind this has been the difficulty in draining product held in tanks in the
ARA (Amsterdam Rotterdam Antwerp) region to demand centres in central Europe.
As a number of European refineries have closed over recent years, the region has become dependent on
imports of refined products. Many of these cargoes arrive in the ARA region on large tankers from as far
afield as Russia, the US and the Middle East. Subsequently, they are broken into smaller cargoes and shipped
to inland demand centres via barges and pipelines. This summer, central Europe experienced a severe
drought that saw water levels in the River Rhine dwindle to their lowest since 1976. The river is the main
artery to ship refined products from Northwest Europe to inland Germany and Switzerland and the low
levels have curbed barge traffic. There are few alternative options; NATOs Central European Pipeline
System (CEPS) linking terminals to a number of main airports, petrochemicals plants and demand centres, is
now running at close to full capacity while there is insufficient infrastructure and capacity available to
transport products by rail.
mb
34
Germany Middle Distillates Stocks
mb
45
32
40
30
28
35
26
30
24
25
22
20
20
Jan
Netherlands Middle Distillates

Stocks
Mar
Jul
May
Range 2010-2014
2014
Sep
Jan
Nov
Avg 2010-2014
2015
15
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2010-2014
2014
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2010-2014
2015
Accordingly, traders have been forced to anchor vessels off Northwest Europe until they can either secure
space on the CEPS line, offload the cargo onto one of the smaller barges which can still sail on the Rhine or
until they can put the product into land-based storage. With time spreads in the ICE gasoil contract still
insufficient to cover floating storage and demurrage fees, these delays are eating into profits. The
bottlenecks have seen stocks in the ARA region soar in recent months so that by end-October, refined
product inventories in the Netherlands stood 25 mb above average. Moreover, heading into winter, it is
apparent that much of the surplus stands in middle distillates, with inventories standing 15 mb above
average.
32
11 D ECEMBER 2015
OECD S TOCKS
European stocks diverge on logistical bottlenecks (continued)

While stocks in Northwest Europe have surged, those in Germany and Switzerland have remained relatively
low. According to latest data, German refined product stocks have drawn in line with seasonal trends over
the summer but since they came from a very low base, remained 1 mb below average by end-October. This
is due to refinery throughputs remaining high at 1.8 mb/d while imports remained relatively steady which
suggests that imports via northern ports rose to compensate for decreases elsewhere.
In contrast, the difficulty is shipping products had a bigger impact on Switzerland due to the recent closure
of the Collombey refinery. This saw Swiss commercial refined product stocks draw rapidly during late
summer to hit their lowest September level on record, and with the brief closure of the countrys only
refinery at Cressier during early-October, the Swiss administration released 1.6 mb of governmentcontrolled motor gasoline and diesel inventories in early-October. Although the Cressier refinery restarted in
late October, stocks still remained very low at the time of writing.
With volumes of refined products held in independent storage in Northwest Europe remaining at close to
record levels in recent weeks and with no significant rainfall in central Europe over the past few months, this
uneven picture can be expected to last for some time to come. Moreover, according to hydrologists, it will
take prolonged precipitation for the levels in the Rhine to recover to a level where barge traffic can
normalise and thus bottlenecks will not be alleviated swiftly.
OECD Asia Oceania

Industry stocks in OECD Asia Oceania drew by 8.3 mb in October, considerably steeper than the 2.8 mb
seasonal decline for the month. This drop was centred in Japan where inventories slipped unseasonably
by 5.4 mb, in stark contrast to the 2.7 mb average build for the month. All oil categories fell, notably
crude oil decreased seasonally by 1.5 mb, as - despite a number of regional refiners remaining in
maintenance (notably in Japan) - buyers ratcheted back crude purchases. Refined products slipped
counter-seasonally by 5.4 mb as stocks of other products broke seasonal trends and fell by 3.4 mb.
Motor gasoline also drew counter-seasonally (-0.1 mb) while middle distillates including kerosene, the
regions space heating fuel of choice slipped by a broadly seasonal 1.5 mb with stocks ending the
month at 66 mb, 3 mb below average. At end-month, regional refined products covered 19.7 days of
forward demand, 1.4 days and 1.1 days below end-September and year-earlier levels, respectively.
mb
210
OECD Asia Oceania Crude Oil

Stocks
days
24
200
23
190
22
180
21
170
20
160
19
150
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2010-2014
2014
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2010-2014
2015
18
Jan
OECD Asia Oceania Total Products

Stocks Days of Forward Demand
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2010-2014
2014
Sep
Jan
Nov
Avg 2010-2014
2015
According to weekly data from the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ), commercial oil stocks in Japan
continued their recent decline, falling for the third consecutive month, as they lost a steep 7.3 mb in
November. Plunging crude (-5.0 mb), pressured stocks lower as refiners hiked throughputs by over
200 kb/d which likely outstripped crude imports. Despite this higher refining activity, refined products
declined by a combined 2.3 mb. Only motor gasoline (+0.3 mb) and middle distillates (+0.1 mb) posted
builds, while other products and fuel oil drew by 2.2 mb and 0.5 mb, respectively. By end-November,
stocks of all refined product categories in the country stood below average.
11 D ECEMBER 2015
33
OECD S TOCKS
Recent developments in Singapore and China stocks

Weekly data from International Enterprise indicate that land-based refined products inventories in
Singapore slipped by 1.6 mb in November. Falling middle distillate (- 2.5 mb) and residual fuel oil
(-1.6 mb) holdings pressured stocks lower and more-than offset a 2.5 mb build in light distillates. The
draw in middle distillates was the steepest since October 2011 and at end-November stocks hit their
lowest level since early summer. The fall came against the backdrop of regional refinery outages, notably
at Shells 500 kb/d Singapore refinery on Bukom Island and as imports from the Middle East tailed off
due to refinery maintenance there. In contrast, light distillates built for five consecutive weeks until late
November, which saw 3.1 mb added to inventories as shipments of naphtha from Europe and gasoline
from India and the Middle East remained strong.
Source:
mb
60
Singapore Weekly Total Product

Stocks
mb
25
China Monthly Oil Stock Change*

Source: China Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals
20
55
15
50
10
45
40
35
(5)
Source: International Enterprise
30
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2010-2014
2014
Oct
5-yr Average
2015
(10)
Oct 14
Crude
Jan 15
Gasoline
Apr 15
Gasoil
Jul 15
Oct 15
Kerosene
*Since August 2010, COGP only reports percentage stock change
Data from China Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals (China OGP) point to Chinese commercial crude stocks
plummeting by an equivalent 10.8 mb (data are reported in terms of percentage stock change) in
October, their steepest monthly decline since January 2010. The decline occurred as refiners hiked
throughputs by 100 kb/d after seasonal maintenance. Additionally, crude imports fell by 600 kb/d on a
monthly basis. Nonetheless, the difference between crude supply (production minus net imports) and
refinery runs remained in positive territory, suggesting a 14.7 mb unreported build. This could be
heading to unreported commercial tanks or newly-completed SPR facilities. October was the fifth
consecutive month that crude supply has outstripped crude demand and preliminary data suggest that
this trend is set to continue in November.
Refined products continued their destocking and drew for the third consecutive month by a combined
13.6 mb. Plunging gasoil holdings (-11.8 mb) led stocks lower, this was likely export led considering
underwhelming domestic demand and that the Chinese administration recently changed the tax
structure to incentivise refiners to ship excess product abroad. It is likely that Chinese refiners are
maximising their gasoline output to satisfy growing domestic demand that in tandem is producing extra
gasoil. Gasoline stocks inched down by 0.5 mb while kerosene inventories slipped by 1.3 mb.
34
11 D ECEMBER 2015
OECD S TOCKS
Regional OECD End-of-Month Industry Stocks

(in days of forward demand and million barrels of total oil)
Days1
Americas
Days
Million Barrels
66
mb
1,600
64
1,550
62
1,500
60
1,450
58
1,400
56
1,350
54
1,300
52
Jan
Americas
1,250
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2010-2014
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2010-2014
2015
2014
Europe
Days
72
Jan Mar May

Range 2010-2014
2014
Sep Nov Jan

Avg 2010-2014
2015
Europe
mb
1,050
70
Jul
1,000
68
950
66
900
64
62
Jan
850
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2010-2014
2014
Days
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
Jan
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2010-2014
Jan
Mar May
Range 2010-2014
2015
Asia Oceania
2014
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2010-2014
2015
Asia Oceania
mb
460
440
420
400
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2010-2014
2014
Days
66
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2010-2014
380
Jan
2015
OECD Total Oil
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2010-2014
2014
2,900
62
2,800
60
2,700
58
2,600
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2010-2014
2015
OECD Total Oil
mb
3,000
64
56
Jan
Jul
2,500
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2010-2014
2014
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2010-2014
2015
Jan Mar May

Range 2010-2014
2014
Jul
Sep Nov Jan

Avg 2010-2014
2015
1 Days of forw ard demand are based on average demand over the next three months
11 D ECEMBER 2015
35
P RICES
PRICES
Summary
Benchmark crudes approached seven-year lows in early December after OPEC opted to continue
producing at will to defend market share. Unrelenting oversupply in world markets had already
weakened benchmarks during November. ICE Brent was last trading at $39.77/bbl with NYMEX WTI
several dollars lower at $36.87/bbl.
Despite recent price falls, time spreads in futures markets remain at levels that do not support
floating storage and signal that storage capacity is not under pressure. The notable exception is
NYMEX WTI, where persistent stock builds at the Cushing storage hub have pressured prompt prices
lower in comparison to those for later delivery. This has widened the contango to levels that make
storing oil attractive to investors.
Spot crude oil prices fell in November with European markets among the most affected as supplies
of both sweet and sour grades remained ample. Meanwhile, despite declining US LTO production
and increasing refinery activity, US prices fell amid stock builds and increases in Gulf of Mexico
production.
Spot product prices weakened across the board in November. Plentiful inventories and increasing
supply as refiners exited turnarounds weighed heavy. Products at the top of the barrel fared best;
naphtha cracks hit multi-year highs in all regions buoyed by high petrochemical demand, while
gasoline cracks firmed in the Atlantic Basin on export demand.
Surveyed freight rates had a generally strong month. Very large crude carriers (VLCCs) on the
Middle East to Asia route eased throughout November on the back of falling demand while Suezmax
rates fell from their mid-October peak but remained supported by a shrinking tonnage list.
Benchmark Crude Prices
$/bbl
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
/opyright 2015 Argus aedia
30
WTI Cushing
N. Sea Dated
Dubai
$/bbl
52
NYMEX WTI
Forward Price Curve
50
S
48
46
44
42
40
Source: NYMEX
38
M1 2
3 4 5
03 Dec 15
02 Nov 15
9 10 11 12
05 Oct 15
03 Sep 15
Market overview
Persistent oversupply in world crude markets pressured benchmark crude oil prices in November. This
more-than-offset any positive sentiment coming from the ramp up of global refinery throughput as
seasonal maintenance eased. Further downward momentum came from OPECs early-December
decision to keep its taps open, with marker crudes touching seven-year lows. ICE Brent was last trading
at $39.77/bbl. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI was pressured by brimming inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma
storage terminal (the delivery point of the contract), with prices sliding by $3.37/bbl on a monthly
average basis. The US benchmark was last trading at $36.87 /bbl. Despite the fall in WTI, the spread
between US domestic grade LLS and Brent remained narrow in November while the arb to rail
36
11 D ECEMBER 2015
P RICES
midcontinent crudes to the Atlantic Coast remained shut. This saw Atlantic Basin crudes make their way
into the US East Coast.
A similar picture prevailed in product markets, where prices fell on increasing supplies as refiners
returned from maintenance. Product inventories remain healthy and logistical bottlenecks in northwest
Europe are also putting downward pressure on prices (see European stocks diverge on logistical
bottlenecks in Stocks section). Reports suggest that vessels are storing ULSD and jet fuel in the ARA
region. However, time spreads in the ICE gasoil contract do not make this profitable, suggesting that
volumes remain at sea due to discharge delays. OECD refiners in the Atlantic Basin are also continuing to
look to non-OECD markets as outlets for their products. This has managed to buttress prices, especially
for gasoline, although there is growing evidence that those in Europe and the US are increasingly
competing against one another in West Africa and Latin America.
Futures markets
All benchmark futures markets remain in contango (where oil for prompt delivery is cheaper than oil for
delivery later). Unlike other crudes, the contango in the NYMEX WTI forward contract steepened in
November on persistent stock builds at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub that saw stocks there surge
to 59 mb, equating to 81% of working capacity. Accordingly, prompt prices fell by $3.37/bbl on a
monthly, average basis. Considering that the contango in the first four months of the one-year curve is
steeper than the following eight months, this is a signal that capacity at the terminal is currently under
pressure, rather than of expectations that US refinery throughputs should rise going forward
(US throughputs are projected to seasonally peak in December). It is also likely that the back of the curve
was buttressed by expectations that US LTO production will decline. The spread in the M1-M3 contracts
widened to about $2.50/bbl in early December compared to $1.75/bbl one month earlier. Meanwhile,
the contango in the M1-M12 contracts steepened to about $7.20/bbl in early December compared with
$5.40 /bbl in early November. These time spreads cover the cost of land-based storage costs and
potentially make the storage of oil profitable for investors.
Prompt Month Oil Futures Prices
(monthly and weekly averages, $/bbl)
Sep
NYMEX
Light Sw eet Crude Oil
RBOB
No.2 Heating Oil
No.2 Heating Oil ($/mmbtu)
Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/mmbtu)
ICE
Brent
Gasoil
45.47
58.03
64.62
11.40
2.64
Oct
46.29
56.21
62.97
11.11
2.39
Nov
42.92
56.04
59.84
10.55
2.28
Nov-Oct
Avg Chg
-3.37
-0.17
-3.13
-0.55
-0.11
% Week Com m encing:

Chg 02 Nov 09 Nov 16 Nov
-7.3
-0.3
-5.0
-5.0
-4.4
45.97
58.32
63.45
11.19
2.30
42.70
55.22
60.48
10.67
2.30
40.82
53.10
57.76
10.19
2.31
23 Nov
30 Nov
42.34
57.65
58.06
10.24
2.21
40.90
55.28
56.38
9.94
2.20
48.54
49.29
45.93
-3.36
-6.8
48.66
45.62
44.22
45.49
43.68
63.13
61.47
58.45
-3.02
-4.9
61.10
59.11
56.71
57.31
53.86
Prom pt Month Differentials

NYMEX WTI - ICE Brent
-3.07
-3.00
-3.01
-0.01
-2.69
-2.92
-3.40
-3.15
-2.78
NYMEX No.2 Heating Oil - WTI
19.15
16.68
16.92
0.24
17.48
17.78
16.94
15.72
15.48
NYMEX RBOB - WTI
12.56
9.92
13.12
3.20
12.35
12.52
12.28
15.31
14.38
NYMEX 3-2-1 Crack (RBOB)

NYMEX No.2 - Natural Gas ($/mmbtu)
ICE Gasoil - ICE Brent
14.76
8.76
14.59
12.18
8.72
12.18
14.39
8.27
12.52
2.21
-0.45
0.34
14.06
8.89
12.44
14.27
8.36
13.49
13.83
7.88
12.49
15.44
8.03
11.82
14.75
7.74
10.18
Source: ICE, NYMEX.
In contrast, the back and front of the 12-month ICE Brent forward curve dropped in tandem with the
spread between the M1 and M12 contracts staying relatively constant at $7.00/bbl between early
November and early December. Meanwhile, the M1-M3 narrowed to $1.15/bbl from $1.66/bbl, levels
which do not cover the cost of floating storage. Similarly, the contangos in the ICE gasoil contract
11 D ECEMBER 2015
37
P RICES
remained insufficient to cover floating storage which suggests that the vessels which are storing product
in the ARA (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp) region are doing so for logistical, rather than speculative
purposes.
ICE Brent
Forward Price Curve
$/bbl
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
ICE Gasoil
Forward Price Curve
$/Tonne
540
500
460
420
Source: ICE
Source: ICE
M1 2
3 4 5 6
03 Sep 15
02 Nov 15
380
M1 2
10 11 12
05 Oct 15
03 Dec 15
03 Sep 15
02 Nov 15
10 11 12
05 Oct 15
03 Dec 15
Market activity
Futures markets saw uncertainty growing in November and early December. Disaggregated data from
the commitment-of-trader reports showed hedge funds taking increasingly divergent positions in ICE
Brent, as the number of spreading positions decreased while net long and net shorts (ie, directional bets)
increased. The polarisation of expectations is reflected in implied volatility, a measure of future
uncertainty derived from option contract prices, climbing towards the 50% mark.
'000
contracts
ICE Brent Money Managers

Long, shot and spreading contracts
Crude oil implied volatility

WTI and Brent
350
70
300
Source: CME, ICE, Bloomberg
60
250
50
200
40
150
100
30
50
20
0
Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14
Spreading
Short
10
Jul 13
Jun 15
Long
Jan 14
Jul 14
Brent 3 months
Jan 15
Jul 15
CBOE OVX Index
The US oil fund, the largest exchange-traded WTI-based fund, drew further support in terms of shares
from crude benchmark weakness. Open interest in Brent contracts kept growing with respect to WTI,
consolidating its trend for both futures and options contracts. Trading volumes for futures contracts
were seasonally down for both benchmarks, with WTI remaining the most frequently traded.
(mln
shares)
300
United States Oil fund
($ per
share)
45
250
200
Source: Bloomberg
500
15
-250
10
-500
Oct 14
Apr 15
Outstanding shares
Oct 15
Share price
NYMEX WTI vs ICE Brent

Open interest
Source: ICE, CFTC
Brent = 0
250
20
Apr 14
38
750
35
25
100
50
40
30
150
'000
contracts
-750
Feb 14
Aug 14
Futures only
Feb 15
Aug 15
Futures and options
11 D ECEMBER 2015
P RICES
Financial regulation
The European Parliament (EP) has informed the European Commission that it is ready to accept a
one-year delay to the start-date of financial market regulation legislation; MiFID II, currently taking effect
in January 2017. The call for delay originally came from the European Securities and Markets Authority
(ESMA), which informed the EP in a speech that the timing to build the necessary IT systems is tight,
relating it to the fact that the regulatory technical standards will be finalised well into 2016.
Spot crude oil prices

Spot crude oil prices fell in November with European markets among the most affected. Supplies of both
sweet and sour grades remained ample, outstripping the effect of refiners returning from maintenance.
In the US, despite falls in domestic LTO production and increasing refinery runs, domestic grades were
pressured by stock builds and relatively high production in the Gulf of Mexico. US imports were also
boosted by the relative strength of Bakken and a narrower LLS Brent spread in November. Meanwhile
in Asia, distillate-rich light, sweet crudes were buttressed by increased buying as refiners reacted to
healthy regional naphtha and middle distillate cracks. On the other hand, sour crudes weakened in Asia
in the face of continued high supplies from the Middle East.
$/bbl
10
Light Sweet Crude Arbitrage

US Crudes vs. North Sea Dated
$/bbl
8
Sweet-Sour Differentials
2
0
-5
-2
-10
-4
-15
/opyright 2015 Argus aedia Ltd
-20
LLS-North Sea
WTI-North Sea
-6
North Sea Dated - Urals Med
Tapis - Dubai
All US marker crude prices weakened in November. On a monthly average basis, WTI lost $3.45/bbl after
being pressured lower by persistent stock builds at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub. Nonetheless, on
an absolute basis this was less than for other Atlantic Basin grades with WTI likely buttressed by refiners
in the mid-continent and Gulf Coast coming out of seasonal maintenance and increasing their purchases.
Consequently, the WTI North Sea Dated spread narrowed by $0.80/bbl on a monthly average basis and
by early December stood at about $-0.75/bbl.
$/bbl
14
US Gulf Coast Crude Prices

LLS Differential to WTI
$/bbl
4
Bakken Shale
Differential to WTI
12
10
8
0
-4
6
4
2
0
-2
11 D ECEMBER 2015
-8
-12
-16
39
P RICES
The WTI LLS spread has remained narrow over recent weeks and averaged less than $2/ bbl during
November. LLS fell amid relatively robust production in the Gulf of Mexico as a number of new fields
have recently come on-line while several refineries in the region have been undergoing maintenance.
Moreover, considering the relative weakness in North Sea Dated, LLS has traded at a small premium to
North Sea Dated over recent weeks. This has seen a number of transatlantic cargoes reach the US.
Imports of transatlantic crudes, notably from West Africa, were also boosted by the continued closure of
the arbitrage opportunity to rail Bakken crude from North Dakota to refineries on the US Atlantic Coast.
This closure came as Bakken rose to a premium versus WTI as its production declines. This premium hit a
record $2.70/bbl in mid-November (excluding freight). Considering the cost of shipping West African
crudes to the US has averaged about $2.60/bbl so far this year, this suggests that if the Brent WTI/LLS
spreads remain narrow and the premium of Bakken versus WTI persists then these transatlantic imports
will continue.
Spot crude oil prices and differentials
Table Unavailable
Available in the subscription version.
To subscribe, visit: www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/subscription
Northwest European light crude markets remained under pressure in November as, despite regional
refiners exiting maintenance and hiking throughputs, North Sea production remained healthy while
supplies of competing crudes, notably from West Africa, were ample. Regional benchmark North Sea
Dated plunged by $4.25/bbl (8.8%) on a monthly average basis, the steepest fall among benchmark light
crudes. By early-December it approached its lowest level in seven years and was last trading at
$41.52/bbl. A similar picture prevailed in the Mediterranean where supplies of light grades from North
Africa and the FSU, including CPC and BTC blends, are increasingly competing for market share with
producers cutting prices accordingly.
European sour crude markets remained anaemic in November as FSU crude exports continued at close to
record levels while Middle Eastern producers are increasingly targeting central and southern European
refiners ahead of an expected increase in Iranian barrels next year (see Sour wars in OMR dated
13 November 2015). This has seen European sour benchmark Urals come under increased pressure
recently as Russian producers struggle to stay competitive. Accordingly, the discounts of Urals versus
North Sea Dated widened steadily during November with the differential for customers in Northwest
Europe hitting -$3.70/bbl in mid-November, its widest since March 2012. Nonetheless, the differentials
once again narrowed in late month after the release of the December loading program, showing a sharp
decrease in volumes. In the East, Russian ESPO held its price relatively well, which saw its premium
versus Dubai remain at about $5.00/bbl.
40
11 D ECEMBER 2015
$/bbl
1
Urals
Differentials to North Sea Dated
P RICES
Nigeria
Differentials to North Sea Dated
$/bbl
4
3
2
-1
-2
0
-1
-3

-4
Urals (NWE)
-2
Brass River-NSD
Forcados-NSD
Urals (Med)
Bonny Light-NSD
West African crudes are finding homes farther and farther afield. Tanker tracking data indicate that
Nigerian barrels are now regularly being processed in refineries in Europe, the US Atlantic Coast, Latin
America and Asia. Nonetheless, state company Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) is having
trouble clearing an overhang of barrels, despite relatively strong gasoline cracks in Europe and the
US. November saw NNPC cut the price of its flagship grades versus Dated Brent which cleared the
overhang of Novembers barrels. However, at the time of writing, some of Decembers loading program
remained unsold with Januarys program sailing onto the horizon.
East of Suez markets continue to be awash with sour crudes. Regional benchmark Dubai paired its losses
with North Sea dated and weakened by $4.15/bbl on a monthly average basis which saw the spread
between the two grades remain at close to $2.50/bbl. On the other hand, as Asian refiners take
advantage of relatively robust naphtha and middle distillate cracks, the light crude market in the region
is far more buoyant. Light, sweet Malaysian Tapis (which has a comparatively high naphtha yield)
weakened by $2.59/bbl in November, far less than for other regional grades. It consequently saw its
premium versus Dubai exceed $6.00/bbl, its widest since end-2013.
$/bbl
Saudi Aramco cut the official selling prices for its crude
delivered to Asian customers in January in line with
the weaker Dubai market. However, the discount of
Arab Light to Dubai narrowed compared to previous
months due to stronger refinery margins in the region
that have been lifted by exceptional naphtha cracks.
Although The Kingdom cut the discount of Arab Light
versus BWAVE for its European customers, prices
remain competitive as it battles for market share with
extra Iraqi volumes and Russian Urals.
Saudi official selling prices
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Sep 15
Arab Med, to ASCII (US)
Arab Light to Bwave
Arab Light to Dubai (AS)
Spot product prices

Spot product prices weakened across the board in November as plentiful inventories and increasing
supply as refiners exited turnarounds, weighed heavy. Products at the top of the barrel fared best with
naphtha cracks hitting multi-year high in all regions buoyed by high petrochemical demand, while
gasoline cracks firmed in the Atlantic Basin on export demand. Meanwhile, middle distillates prices and
cracks remained weak across all markets amid warmer-than-usual weather and high stocks.
11 D ECEMBER 2015
41
P RICES
Spot product prices
Table Unavailable
Available in the subscription version.
To subscribe, visit: www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/subscription
In spite of the onset of winter, by early December, gasoline prices continued to hold a premium versus
diesel in all markets except Northwest Europe. This reflects not only the weakness of middle distillates
but also the strength in gasoline markets over the past
Gasoline
few weeks. In Europe, gasoline spot prices held their $/bbl
Cracks to Benchmark Crudes
levels despite the falls in crude prices after they were 60
buttressed by export demand from the US Atlantic 50
Coast, Latin America and West Africa. European cracks 40
firmed by $4.44/bbl on average in November, the 30
sharpest increases across surveyed products and regions 20
10
on a monthly average basis. However, these gains could
0
not be sustained and by early December, prices dropped -10 Copyright 2015 Argus Media Ltd
as export demand waned and stocks built. In contrast,
US gasoline markets remained weak as refiners came
NWE Prem Unl
USGC 93 Conv
back from maintenance and export demand from Latin
America and West Africa was hit by competition from European refiners. Consequently, spot prices on
the US Gulf Coast slid by $2.07/bbl on average in November while despite LLS weakening, cracks only
inched up by $0.82/bbl on average. Meanwhile, in Asia, gasoline cracks softened by $0.39/bbl on
average as prices were hit by Indonesia cutting back its imports as one of its refineries returned from
maintenance and as Singapore light distillate stocks built by a steep 3.1 mb over November.
In late November, Asian naphtha cracks breached $10/bbl their highest levels in over ten years on strong
demand from petrochemical producers in Korea, India, Singapore and China. This surge in demand saw
spot naphtha prices in Singapore hold steady (the only product across surveyed regions to do so) while
cracks were further buoyed by the relative weakness of benchmark Dubai crude. Cargoes were also
42
11 D ECEMBER 2015
P RICES
drawn to the region from Europe and the Middle East as arbitrage opportunities remained abundant.
Accordingly, cracks in Northwest Europe firmed by $2.96/bbl on a monthly average basis. Mediterranean
refiners saw naphtha cracks rise by a steeper $3.68/bbl due to the relative weakness of Urals. By earlyDecember, European naphtha cracks stood at about $5/bbl, their highest in over five years.
Naphtha
$/bbl
15
$/bbl
40
Gasoline vs Diesel
Differentials
10
20
5
0
-5
-10
-20
-15

-20
NWE
SP
Med
ME Gulf
-40
NWE
MED
USGC
NYH
SP
Middle distillate markets remain weak in all surveyed regions with rising supplies, high inventories and
unseasonably warm weather maintaining the downside pressure on prices. Notably, inventories in
PADD 1, the worlds largest heating oil market, continued to build in November and by end-month stood
75% above one year earlier. Additionally, in the Gulf Coast region November was reportedly one of the
warmest on record. Accordingly, monthly average ULSD and heating oil spot prices on the Gulf Coast
dropped by $2.67/bbl and $3.89/bbl, respectively, with ULSD cracks standing at their lowest levels in
nearly twelve months by early December. In Europe, persistently high stocks in the ARA region (amid
logistical bottlenecks) and amid a flood of imports from the US and Russia continue to pressure ULSD
prices downwards. By early-December, European spot ULSD prices sat at around $50/bbl, their lowest
since early 2009. These low prices shut the arbitrage windows to the region from both the US and Asia.
S
$/bbl
25
Diesel Fuel
$/bbl
10
20
15
10
Diesel Fuel Arbitrage

Spreads vs. Rotterdam
-5
5
NWE ULSD
USGC ULSD
Med ULSD
SP Gasoil 0.05%
-10
USGC
Singapore
Despite falling prices, Asian fuel oil markets strengthened in November as bunker fuel demand
reportedly improved and stocks in Singapore posted their steepest draw in nearly six years.
Consequently, HSFO spot prices in Singapore dropped by $2.16/bbl on average with cracks improving by
about $2.00/bbl to their highest levels in nearly six months. In contrast, Northwest European prices were
hit by high freight rates that narrowed the arbitrage between the region and Asia. This saw regional
HSFO prices fall by $4.55/bbl on average. By early December, they stood at close to $23/bbl, their lowest
levels in nearly seven years. In percentage terms, this equated to double digit drops, the steepest falls
posted across surveyed regions and products. The picture in the Mediterranean was slightly better amid
demand for fuel oil from regional refiners and those in North Africa.
11 D ECEMBER 2015
43
P RICES
High-Sulphur Fuel Oil
$/bbl
Spot Prices
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
NWE HSFO 3.5%
USGC No.6 3%
Med HSFO 3.5%
SP HSFO 380 4%
$/bbl
0
High-Sulphur Fuel Oil

-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
NWE HSFO 3.5%
Med HSFO 3.5%
SP HSFO 380 4%
Freight
Surveyed freight rates had a generally strong month. Very-large-crude-carriers (VLCCs) on the Middle
East Gulf Asia route eased throughout November on the back of falling demand. However, rates
rebounded in early December as a tightened tonnage list met with increasing vessel demand ahead of
end-of-year holidays. Suezmax rates came off their mid-October peak but remained supported at the
$15 /mt level by a shrinking tonnage list, according to reports. A narrowing of the LLS Brent spread in
mid-November prompted three cargoes to be shipped across to the US from West Africa. Aframaxes
remained at sustained level, just below the $10/mt mark, sustained by close-to-record Russian exports
from Baltic ports and healthy North Sea production.
US$/mt
30
Daily Crude Tanker Rates

25
20
15
10
5
Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15
130Kt WAF - UKC
80Kt UK - UK cont
VLCC MEG-Asia
100Kt Baltic - UK
Daily Product Tanker Rates

US$/mt
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15
38Kt Carib - USAC
75Kt MEG - Jap
37Kt UKC - USAC

30Kt SP - Jap
Product rates on the 37 Kt UK US Atlantic Coast route gained traction throughout November on higher
demand from the US market as the gasoline arbitrage window opened. Unplanned outages in Mexico
contributed to tanker demand in the 38 Kt Caribbean US Atlantic Coast market, adding to tightness.
Rates on the Middle East Gulf Japan 75 Kt route eased in November as the arbitrage opportunity with
the Gulf narrowed, which had previously sustained rates. Even as the differential came down from
$6 /bbl to around $3/bbl, overall volumes shipped into the region remain sustained. Widening naphtha
differentials to Europe jumped the $6/bbl mark, and drew more fixtures to Asia from west of Suez
markets, reportedly tightening vessel supply and supporting freight rates in early December.
44
11 D ECEMBER 2015
R EFININ G
REFINING
Summary
Global refinery runs rose by 1.4 mb/d in November to 79.9 mb/d as the maintenance season drew
to a close. Oil products stocks remained comfortable during the period, which could threaten margins
as refiners return to full speed.
Throughput for 4Q15 and 1Q16 are estimated at 79.7 mb/d and 79.6 mb/d, respectively, with yearly
growth of 1.4 mb/d for each quarter. The Middle East is the predominant growth contributor,
followed by other Asia, China and Europe. The resulting global refining utilisation rates are the highest
since 2007.
Margins in November were healthy, though lower in the US than in October, but higher elsewhere.
Light distillates continued to be the main support, showing unseasonal strength. By early December,
cracks started to fall in Europe, sinking hydroskimming margins into negative territory. If this trend
persists, we might see lower throughputs later on.
Global refinery overview

Global refining is emerging from autumn maintenance with the usual reports of delays in restarting units
and various unplanned outages. Crude stocks have risen during this period and product stocks remain at
very comfortable levels in all regions - although they have come off slightly. This is because the
estimated 4Q15 global refining utilisation rate of 81.5% was at its highest since 2007. If refinery margins
remain at the healthy levels seen in November, stocks should test highs again. However, early December
saw a weakening of margins. Gasoline, and even more naphtha, remained seasonally strong, but gasoil
faltered. Whether light distillates can continue supporting margins through Northern hemisphere winter
is questionable.
mb/d
Global Refining
82
Crude Throughput
Global Refinery Utilisation Rate
80
78
76
74
72
70
Jan
Mar
May
Range 10-14
2014
2015
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
84%
83%
82%
81%
80%
79%
78%
77%
76%
Average 10-14
2015 est.
2016 est
In September, global crude runs eased to 79.2 mb/d, still 1.7 mb/d higher year on year (y-o-y). Europe
and the Middle East are each responsible for about half of this yearly growth.
In October, the most recent month for which a complete set of monthly data is available, OECD refiners
posted a 0.8 mb/d month on month (m-o-m) decrease in crude throughput bringing it to 37.1 mb/d
0.7 mb/d above a year earlier. OECD Europe represents half of this growth, followed by Asia Oceania and
the Americas. Preliminary and estimated figures for November show OECD runs picking up to 37.8 mb/d.
Global crude run estimates for 4Q15 have been lowered by 270 kb/d since last months Report, to
79.7 mb/d, and 1Q16 crude runs are now predicted at a similar level. Downward revisions in 4Q15
turned up in most non-OECD regions bar the FSU and OECD Asia Oceania, while the Americas and Europe
both showed 0.1 mb/d positive revisions.
11 D ECEMBER 2015
45
R EFININ G
Global Refinery Crude Throughput

Aug 15
Sep 15
3Q2015
Oct 15
Nov 15
Dec 15
4Q2015
Jan 16
Feb 16
Mar 16
1Q2016
Americas
19.7
19.0
19.5
18.3
18.9
19.4
18.9
18.7
18.4
18.8
18.6
Europe
12.4
12.5
12.4
12.3
12.1
12.0
12.1
12.1
12.3
12.0
12.1
Asia Oceania
7.0
6.5
6.7
6.4
6.8
7.0
6.7
6.9
6.8
6.6
6.8
Total OECD
39.1
37.9
38.6
37.1
37.8
38.4
37.7
37.6
37.6
37.4
37.5
FSU
7.3
6.8
7.1
6.5
7.0
7.1
6.9
7.1
7.1
6.9
7.0
Non-OECD Europe
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
China
10.4
10.3
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.7
10.6
10.4
10.4
10.8
10.6
Other Asia
10.1
10.0
10.1
10.2
10.5
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.2
10.1
10.2
Latin America
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
Middle East
6.6
6.9
6.8
7.0
6.8
6.9
6.9
6.9
6.9
6.8
6.8
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.1
Total Non-OECD
Africa
42.0
41.3
41.7
41.4
42.1
42.3
41.9
42.2
42.0
42.0
42.1
Total
81.0
79.2
80.3
78.5
79.9
80.7
79.7
79.9
79.6
79.3
79.6
1 Preliminary and estimated runs based on capacity, know n outages, economic run cuts and global demand forecast
Margins
Gasoline markets were extremely volatile in November, signalling the changes in refining margins. In the
first half of the month, gasoline cracks briefly surged to very high levels both in the US and Europe.
Naphtha cracks rose on solid demand to close to $5/bbl in Europe and $10/bbl in Singapore, the highest
level since June 2007. Middle distillates were also surprisingly supportive, with cracks rising both in
Europe and Asia, but easing in the US. Heating oil was particularly weak with a crack of only $5/bbl. In
the Mid-continent, the strength showed by all products in October a likely result of sustained local
maintenance subsided over November. The product differentials between the Mid-continent and the
US Gulf, which were in a $10-15/bbl range in October, disappeared in November. In Singapore, fuel oil
cracks narrowed by around $2/bbl as stocks were drawn down to a four-month low. As a result, regional
margins took very different paths. In Europe and Singapore, they increased by a couple of dollars a
barrel, lifting hydro-skimming margins into the black. Urals margins in Europe also rose even though
Urals differential to Brent narrowed. Profits decreased in the US, especially in the mid-Continent,
although margins there were still above the US Gulf.
By early December, diesel and heating oil cracks in the US and gasoline cracks in Europe were under
pressure, with NWE gasoline cracks below $10/bbl on indications of high storage levels.
$/bbl Northwest Europe Refining Margins
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
-2.5
-5.0
-7.5
-10.0
Dec 14
Jun 15
Mar 15
Sep 15
Brent Cracking
Urals Cracking
46
Brent HS
Urals HS
$/bbl
50.0
Refining Margins US Midcon Coking
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
5ata Source: IEA/K./
-10.0
Dec 14
May 15
WTI Coking
Oct 15
WCS/Bakken Cok.
Bakken Coking
11 D ECEMBER 2015
R EFININ G
IEA/KBC Global Indicator Refining Margins

($/bbl)
Monthly AverMge
ChMnge
Aug 15
Sep 15
Oct 15
Nov 15
10B05
7B15
4B24
6B65
AverMge for R eek ending:
Nov 15-Oct 15
06 Nov
13 Nov
20 Nov
27 Nov
04 Gec
2B41
6B26
7B64
7B21
5B76
4B8E
NW Europe
Brent (CrMcking)
UrMls (CrMcking)
EB63
7B16
5B66
8B37
2B71
8B18
EB57
EB2E
6BE4
5B18
Brent (Hydroskimming)
3B53
1B0E
-0BE5
0BE3
1B88
0B61
1B55
1B77
0B04
-0B81
UrMls (Hydroskimming)
2B20
0B33
-0B46
1B44
1BE0
1B45
2B18
2B46
0B16
-1B63
Mediterranean
Es Sider (CrMcking)
11B1E
8BE5
6B01
7B85
1B84
7B57
8B62
8B61
6B88
5BE0
UrMls (CrMcking)
EB88
7B81
5B81
8B0E
2B28
7BE8
8B78
EB26
6B84
5B04
Es Sider (Hydroskimming)
5BE3
3B43
1B04
2B77
1B73
2B42
3B37
3B66
1B85
1B1E
UrMls (Hydroskimming)
3B37
1B14
-0B31
1B38
1B6E
1B48
1BE1
2B43
0B16
-1B40
US Gulf Coast
50C50 HISCIIS (CrMcking)
12B04
5B4E
5BE2
5B84
-0B08
8B01
5B58
4B33
5B68
4B61
MMrs (CrMcking)
8B54
3B60
4B12
3B60
-0B52
5B10
3B2E
2B73
3B37
2B52
ASCI (CrMcking)
8B32
3B01
3B58
3B22
-0B36
4B77
2BE2
2B27
3B03
2B07
50C50 HISCIIS (Coking)
14B47
7B50
7B82
7B78
-0B04
10B03
7B45
6B14
7B74
6B76
50C50 MMyMCMMrs (Coking)
14B17
8B8E
8B5E
8B87
0B28
10B74
8B57
7B53
8B83
8B48
EB04
-0B16
10BE7
8B73
7B6E
8BE3
8B05
ASCI (Coking)
14BEE
EB03
EB1E
US Midcon
27B45
17B73
15B28
8B01
-7B28
13B50
8BE6
3B60
6B08
3B62
30C70 WCSCBMkken (CrMcking) 28B2E
16B68
13B74
6B44
-7B30
11B83
7B68
2B23
3B5E
2BEE
WTI (CrMcking)
BMkken (CrMcking)
31B67
20B00
16B37
7B76
-8B61
14B02
EB13
2B80
4B56
4B12
WTI (Coking)
30B86
20B63
18B22
10B12
-8B10
16B05
11B13
5B37
8B00
5B58
30C70 WCSCBMkken (Coking)
33B81
21B73
1EB13
10B3E
-8B75
16B61
11B81
5B66
6BE4
6B36
BMkken (Coking)
33B20
21B2E
17B66
8B61
-EB06
15B11
10B01
3B47
5B2E
4BE0
Singapore
GuNMi (Hydroskimming)
-1B35
0B21
-0B80
1B80
2B60
0B25
1B31
2B68
2B6E
0B80
TMpis (Hydroskimming)
5B84
4BE3
3B17
4B34
1B17
3B61
5B10
5B43
3B58
3B76
GuNMi (HydrocrMcking)
4B83
6B57
5B28
7B73
2B45
6B14
7B27
8B54
8B65
6BE3
8BE4
1B05
8B25
EB77
EBE6
8B14
8B47
TMpis (HydrocrMcking)
10B38
10B01
7B8E
1 Global Indicator Refining Margins are calculated for various complexity configurations, each optimised for processing the specific crude(s) in a specific refining
centre. Margins include energy cost, but exclude other variable costs, depreciation and amortisation. Consequently, reported margins should be taken as an
indication, or proxy, of changes in profitability for a given refining centre. No attempt is made to model or otherwise comment upon the relative economics of
specific refineries running individual crude slates and producing custom product sales, nor are these calculations intended to infer the marginal values of crude
for pricing purposes.
Source: IEA, KBC Advanced Technologies (KBC)
OECD refinery throughput

OECD refinery runs decreased by 0.9 mb/d in October from September to 37.1 mb/d. Most of the
decrease took place in the Americas, with a large maintenance program in the US affecting crude runs.
US Weekly statistics suggest that Americas crude runs rebounded from 18.3 mb/d to 18.9 mb/d in
November. Maintenance was very limited in Europe and in Asia Oceania. October OECD throughput was
revised up by nearly 0.4 mb/d from last months Report. The largest upward revisions took place in
Canada, Belgium, the US and Greece while Japan was revised downward by 0.1 mb/d.
OECD throughput for 4Q15 was revised slightly up to 37.7 mb/d due to final figures for October and
provisional numbers for November. Throughput in 1Q16 is expected to be 0.2 mb/d lower at 37.5 mb/d.
11 D ECEMBER 2015
47
R EFININ G
OECD Total
mb/d
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
Jan
Mar
May
Range 10-14
2014
2015
Jul
OECD Americas
mb/d
Crude Throughput
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 10-14
2015 est.
2016 est
20.0
19.5
19.0
18.5
18.0
17.5
17.0
16.5
Jan
Crude Throughput
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Range 10-14
2014
2015
Nov
Jan
Average 10-14
2015 est.
2016 est
OECD Americas
In the OECD Americas, crude throughput dipped substantially in October to 18.3 mb/d, despite a
0.3 mb/d upward revision spread on the four countries of the region. In the United States, November
weekly data suggest that refinery activity picked up again to 16.1 mb/d following levels of 15.5 mb/d in
October. In California, Exxon received the clearance to restart the gasoline units at its Torrance refinery,
which had been partly offline since February, and repairs should be completed in 1Q16. In Canada,
Irvings St John refinery prolonged its maintenance. Mexican crude runs are still around 10% below 2014,
as crude exports prevailed over local refinery supply.
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finally issued biofuel mandates for 2016 at 1.18 mb/d.
This was slightly higher than proposed in May, which pushed up Renewable Identification Number (RIN)
certificate prices, adding some cost on imported gasoline.
Refinery Crude Throughput and Utilisation in OECD Countries
Jun 15
Jul 15
Aug 15
Sep 15
Oct 15
Change from
Sep 15 Oct 14
Utilisation rate (1)

Oct 15
Oct 14
US (2)
16.44
16.69
16.88
16.66
16.17
15.51
-0.67
0.14
0.86
0.87
Canada
1.62
1.71
1.71
1.83
1.60
1.59
-0.01
0.01
0.80
0.80
Chile
0.17
0.16
0.16
0.14
0.16
0.17
0.01
0.00
0.74
0.72
Mexico
1.10
1.07
1.00
1.06
1.05
1.06
0.00
-0.04
0.64
0.66
19.33
19.64
19.76
19.70
18.99
18.32
-0.67
0.12
0.84
0.85
OECD Am ericas (3)

France
1.12
1.02
1.11
1.09
1.27
1.26
-0.01
0.07
0.90
0.85
Germany
2.02
1.96
1.90
1.93
1.90
1.84
-0.07
-0.08
0.91
0.95
Italy
1.42
1.32
1.39
1.42
1.35
1.34
-0.02
0.19
0.76
0.65
Netherlands
1.11
1.08
1.08
1.04
1.10
1.05
-0.04
-0.05
0.82
0.86
Spain
1.33
1.26
1.35
1.41
1.29
1.36
0.06
0.15
0.90
0.80
United Kingdom
1.06
1.00
1.22
1.21
1.20
1.22
0.02
0.07
0.88
0.83
Other OECD Europe
3.84
4.02
4.27
4.30
4.33
4.22
-0.11
0.02
0.87
0.86
11.89
11.66
12.31
12.41
12.45
12.29
-0.17
0.37
0.87
0.84
OECD Europe
Japan
2.92
2.52
3.05
3.33
3.07
2.96
-0.11
0.07
0.78
0.72
South Korea
2.75
2.93
2.91
2.88
2.70
2.70
0.00
0.17
0.82
0.77
Other Asia Oceania
0.68
0.74
0.79
0.78
0.71
0.79
0.08
-0.04
0.80
0.76
6.35
6.19
6.75
6.98
6.48
6.45
-0.03
0.20
0.80
0.75
37.57
37.49
38.82
39.08
37.92
37.05
-0.87
0.69
0.84
0.82
OECD Asia Oceania

OECD Total
48
May 15
11 D ECEMBER 2015
R EFININ G
OECD Europe
Europes crude processing slid to 12.3 mb/d in October, 0.17 mb/d lower m-o-m. The water level on the
Rhine increased briefly, but demand and crude runs in Germany remained muted. Spain, Italy, France
and Turkey had sustained crude runs, with significant y-o-y growth. In Rotterdam, Shells Pernis refinery
was partly shut in November.
OECD Europe
mb/d
13.5
13.0
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
Jan
OECD Asia Oceania
mb/d
Crude Throughput
Crude Throughput
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
Mar
May
Range 10-14
2014
2015
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 10-14
2015 est.
2016 est
5.5
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Range 10-14
2014
2015
Nov
Jan
Average 10-14
2015 est.
2016 est
OECD Asia Oceania

In OECD Asia Oceania, October crude runs were stable at 6.5 mb/d, after a 0.17 downward from last
months Report, mostly in Japan. October marked peak maintenance in Japan, with 550 kb/d offline.
According to weekly figures, November runs will increase to 3.2 mb/d, from 3.0 mb/d in October.
Coming just after the announcement of the merger between Idemitsu Kosan and Showa Shell, Japans
two largest refiners JX Holding and TonenGeneral signed an Memorandum of Understanding to integrate
their operations. These two mergers would significantly accelerate the consolidation of the refining and
retail sectors in Japan, with one company having a 53% gasoline market share and the other 30%, with a
likely restructuring of the refining capacity of both merged companies.
Non-OECD refinery throughput

In September, non-OECD refinery throughput decreased by 0.7 mb/d to 41.3 mb/d, after a negative
monthly revision of 0.14 mb/d. The FSU had the largest maintenance (1.3 mb/d) which continued into
October.
Estimated quarterly figures for 4Q15 reach 41.7 mb/d after a downward revision of 0.4 mb/d split
between Latin America, the Middle East and Other Asia. The y-o-y growth in the non-OECD is now
estimated at 1.0 mb/d in 4Q15.
Non-OECD Total
mb/d
44
Crude Throughput
42
40
38
36
34
Jan
China
mb/d
Crude Throughput
Mar
May
Range 10-14
2014
2015
11 D ECEMBER 2015
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 10-14
2015 est.
2016 est
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
Jan
Mar
May
Range 10-14
2014
2015
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 10-14
2015 est.
2016 est
49
R EFININ G
In China, October crude runs edged up by 1.7% m-o-m to 10.42 mb/d. Internal ex-refinery margins have
dipped a little, but remain comfortable and justify running full speed, with continuing middle distillates
exports. Sinopec will have a large maintenance program in November-December, with shutdowns
planned in seven refineries (Dongxing, Beihai, Guangzhou, Qingdao, Luoyang, Tianjin and Fujian)
Due to the allocation of crude import quotas to seven teapot refiners, China has raised the total amount
of imported crude that non-state refiners can process from 0.75 mb/d to 1.75 mb/d in 2016. It also
announced that it would grant them oil products export quotas. The utilisation rate of teapot refiners
with crude import quotas is reported to have increased from 30% to 80%, but logistical hurdles will limit
product exports for most.
Also to be noted, from January, the gasoline and diesel retailed in Eastern China will have to meet China
V specifications, with a 10 ppm sulphur limit.
Other Asia
mb/d
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
Jan
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
India
mb/d
Crude Throughput
Sep
Range 10-14
2014
2015
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Range 10-14
2015 est.
2015
Average 10-14
2015 est.
2016 est
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 10-14
2014
2016 est
September throughput in Other Asia dipped to 10.0 mb/d, just 0.1 mb/d lower m-o-m, with
maintenance limited to 0.5 mb/d - of which 0.3 mb/d was in India. In India, IOCs Chennai refinery was
shut down by floods. The Paradip refinery has started but it seems that it will only fully ramp up
progressively over 2016. The Singapore Shell refinery remains partly offline, which will last until January.
Singapore stocks decreased both for middle distillates and fuel oil, which helped sustain local refining
margins.
The Philippines, a large importer of gasoil (kt200-300/month) will be shifting its specification of on-road
diesel from 500 to 50 ppm in January. In Indonesia, Saudi Aramco signed an agreement with Pertamina
to share ownership, operations (including crude supply) and upgrade of the 350 kb/d Cilacap refinery.
FSU October crude runs edged down to 6.9 mb/d, a 0.3 mb/d m-o-m decrease and 0.5 mb/d lower y-o-y.
Autumn maintenance reached 1.3 mb/d in September and 1.1 mb/d in October, the second highest level
in the past eight years. Russian throughput recovered from 5.2 mb/d in October to a provisional
5.8 mb/d in November with maintenance nearly over.
Russia
mb/d
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
Jan
Mar
May
Range 10-14
2015 est.
2015
50
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 10-14
2014
2016 est
11 D ECEMBER 2015
R EFININ G
With lower oil prices, the Russian tax manoeuver takes its toll on oil product exports
The so-called tax manoeuver or the latest Russian export duties reform, voted on in end 2014 for a 2015
implementation, has already been discussed in previous Reports. It called for:
A fast-decreasing crude oil export duty, compensated by a rising Mineral Export Tax (MET). But Russian
authorities recently decided not to reduce the formula coefficient in 2016.
An export duty on oil products calculated as a percentage of crude oil export duty, but with such
percentage decreasing rapidly to 30% for light products and increasing to 100% for heavy products (fuel
oil and VGO)
duty ratios
2014
2015
2016
2017
crude oil
gasoline middle dist.
fueloil
on export price
as a percent of crude duty
formula
59%
90%
65%
66%
42%
78%
48%
76%
36%
61%
40%
82%
30%
30%
30%
100%
For oil products, the strategy was to keep incentivising companies to refine crude oil locally and export light
products rather than export the crude itself, while discouraging exports of fuel oil. This implied that refiners
would have to invest in units to upgrade fuel oil into higher valued light products. Nine months on, what are
the consequences of this tax manoeuver for refiners?
Expected consequence: a decrease of fuel oil exports. Starting in spring 2015, fuel oil exports have
plummeted by 25%, to 1.3 mb/d. However, clean products (light and middle distillates) exports also
dropped from their winter highs. Still, fuel oil share of products exports decreased from 59% in JanuarySeptember 2012 to 55% in 2013, 52% in 2014 and only 47% in 2015. This is a result of the completion of a
number of upgrading units in the past few years.
Russia Light Products Exports
2.0
mb/d
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
mb/d
Russia Fuel Oil Exports
1.0
1.0
jan
mar
2012
may
2013
jul
sep
2014
nov
2015
sep
jan
mar
may
jul
2013
2012
2014
bote: Fuel Oil includes VGO
nov
2015
Unexpected consequence: a reduction of the product export subsidy and of the overall product
export level. The latest tax reform probably did not anticipate such a decrease in the price of Urals crude
exports, from around $105/bbl in mid-2014 to
around $45/bbl mid-2015, which cut export duties
Export Duties
$/bbl
by 75% to 80%. As a result, the diesel export
subsidy (the difference between the level of export
40
duties between crude and diesel), instead of being
stable as expected with stable oil prices, dropped
from $19/bbl to $7/bbl. This $12/bbl opportunity 20
loss is very significant when compared to usual
0
cracking refining margins which generally hover in a
crude
fuel oil
diesel
diesel
$5-10 /bbl range, and likely explains why the overall
export
level of exports dropped from 3.6 mb/d in 1Q2015 to
subsidy
mid-2014 (Urals@$105/bbl)
2.7 mb/d in 3Q2015 (the average over 2012-2014
expected 2015 (Urals@$105/bbl)
being 3.1 mb/d).
real mid-2015 (Urals@$45/bbl)
11 D ECEMBER 2015
51
R EFININ G
Middle East
mb/d
Saudi Arabia
mb/d
Crude Throughput
7.5
3.0
7.0
2.5
6.5
2.0
6.0
1.5
5.5
5.0
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Range 10-14
2014
2015
Nov
Jan
1.0
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Jan
Average 10-14
2014
2016 est
Range 10-14
2015 est.
2015
Average 10-14
2015 est.
2016 est
Nov
Middle East crude runs in September were revised down slightly to 6.9 mb/d, 0.3 mb/d higher y-o-y.
Saudi Arabias throughput recovered to 2.5 mb/d but will feel the impact of large shutdowns in the next
two months.
In Latin America, September throughputs edged lower to 4.6 mb/d after a small downward revision of
0.1 mb/d. In Venezuela, the Paraguana refining complex suffered from an unplanned outage but had restarted by end-October, and the 250 kb/d El Palito plant was on maintenance throughout November.
Refinery runs in Brazil during November were reportedly reduced due to the strike affecting some
refineries and limiting crude supplies.
In Africa, September crude throughput edged down by 0.1 mb/d to 2.1 mb/d. In early December,
Algerias state-run oil company Sonatrach issued a tender for 300 kt of gasoline and 360 kt of diesel over
January-February, with speculation swirling over whether all its refineries will be up and running during
this period. Moroccos Samir refinery is still down with its parent company in receivership.
mb/d
Latin America
Africa
mb/d
Crude Throughput
5.2
5.0
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
Jan
52
Crude Throughput
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
Mar
May
Range 10-14
2014
2015
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 10-14
2015 est.
2016 est
1.6
Jan
Mar
May
Range 10-14
2014
2015
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 10-14
2015 est.
2016 est
11 D ECEMBER 2015
I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY - O IL M ARKET R EPORT
T ABLES
Table 1
WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
TABLES
Table 1: World Oil 2012

Supply
And
Demand
2013
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2014
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2015
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016
OECD DEMAND
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
23.6
13.8
8.5
24.1
13.6
8.4
Total OECD
45.9 46.0
45.7 44.8 45.9 46.3 45.7
46.5 45.3 46.7 46.2 46.2
46.4 45.4 46.4 46.7 46.2
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia
Americas
Middle East
Africa
4.6
0.7
9.9
11.4
6.5
7.8
3.8
4.6
0.7
10.4
12.1
6.6
7.7
4.0
4.6
0.7
11.0
12.4
6.7
7.7
4.1
4.7
0.7
11.3
12.9
6.6
7.9
4.2
Total Non-OECD
44.8 45.9
46.1 47.2 47.3 47.7 47.1
47.1 48.6 48.8 49.0 48.4
48.4 49.7 50.1 50.1 49.6
Total Demand1
90.7 91.9
91.8 92.0 93.2 94.0 92.8
93.6 93.9 95.4 95.3 94.6
94.8 95.1 96.5 96.7 95.8
Asia Oceania
15.8
3.5
0.6
18.2
3.5
0.5
19.9
3.4
0.4
19.5
3.4
0.5
Total OECD
19.8 21.0
22.2 22.6 22.8 23.7 22.9
23.7 23.4 23.8 23.8 23.7
23.4 23.0 22.9 23.4 23.2
Middle East
Africa2
13.8
0.1
4.2
3.6
4.1
1.5
2.2
13.9
0.1
4.2
3.5
4.2
1.3
2.3
14.0
0.1
4.3
3.6
4.6
1.3
2.3
13.9
0.1
4.3
3.5
4.6
1.2
2.3
Total Non-OECD
29.6 29.4
23.9
13.0
8.9
23.7
13.4
7.7
24.4
13.8
7.7
24.6
13.4
8.3
24.1
13.4
8.2
24.2
13.4
8.8
24.1
13.5
7.7
24.7
14.1
7.8
24.4
13.5
8.3
24.4
13.7
8.1
24.3
13.4
8.7
24.1
13.7
7.6
24.6
13.9
7.8
24.7
13.6
8.4
24.4
13.6
8.1
NON-OECD DEMAND
4.7
0.7
10.3
11.8
6.7
7.9
3.9
4.9
0.7
10.6
12.1
6.8
8.2
4.0
5.1
0.7
10.5
11.8
7.0
8.4
3.9
5.0
0.7
11.0
12.1
7.0
7.9
4.0
4.9
0.7
10.6
12.0
6.8
8.0
4.0
4.9
0.7
11.3
12.5
6.8
8.3
4.1
5.0
0.7
11.3
12.3
6.9
8.6
4.0
4.9
0.7
11.4
12.9
6.9
8.0
4.1
4.9
0.7
11.3
12.5
6.8
8.2
4.1
4.8
0.7
11.7
13.0
6.8
8.4
4.2
5.0
0.7
11.7
12.8
6.9
8.9
4.1
4.9
0.7
11.8
13.2
7.0
8.2
4.3
4.8
0.7
11.6
13.0
6.8
8.3
4.2
OECD SUPPLY
Americas4
Europe
17.2
3.3
0.5
18.9
3.2
0.5
19.2
3.1
0.5
19.8
3.4
0.5
19.0
3.3
0.5
19.5
3.5
0.4
19.9
3.3
0.5
19.9
3.4
0.5
19.8
3.4
0.5
19.2
3.2
0.5
19.3
3.0
0.5
19.6
3.3
0.5
19.4
3.2
0.5
NON-OECD SUPPLY
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia2
Americas2,4
13.8
0.1
4.2
3.5
4.2
1.4
2.2
13.8
0.1
4.2
3.5
4.3
1.3
2.3
13.8
0.1
4.2
3.4
4.5
1.3
2.3
13.9
0.1
4.3
3.6
4.6
1.3
2.3
13.9
0.1
4.2
3.5
4.4
1.3
2.3
29.7 29.6 29.6 30.1 29.7
14.0
0.1
4.4
3.6
4.5
1.2
2.3
13.9
0.1
4.3
3.5
4.5
1.2
2.3
13.9
0.1
4.3
3.5
4.5
1.2
2.3
14.0
0.1
4.3
3.6
4.5
1.2
2.3
30.3 30.1 30.0 29.9 30.1
13.9
0.1
4.3
3.5
4.6
1.2
2.3
13.8
0.1
4.3
3.4
4.7
1.2
2.3
13.8
0.1
4.3
3.4
4.7
1.1
2.3
13.9
0.1
4.3
3.5
4.7
1.2
2.3
30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9
Processing gains3
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.3
Global Biofuel4
1.9
2.0
1.7
2.3
2.6
2.3
2.2
1.8
2.4
2.6
2.4
2.3
1.9
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.4
Total Non-OPEC2
53.3 54.6
55.9 56.7 57.2 58.3 57.0
58.1 58.2 58.6 58.4 58.3
NGLs
31.3
6.2
30.0
6.3
30.5
6.4
Total OPEC2
37.5 36.6
36.3 36.4 36.9 37.0 36.6
36.9 38.0 38.3
Total Supply6
90.9 91.3
92.2 93.1 94.2 95.3 93.7
95.0 96.2 96.9
57.6 57.5 57.7 57.9 57.7
OPEC
Crude5
30.5
6.2
30.1
6.3
30.5
6.4
30.5
6.5
30.3
6.4
31.5
6.5
31.7
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.7
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.8
STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS

Reported OECD
Industry
Government
0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.8
-0.1
0.7
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.9
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.8
-0.1
Total
0.2
-0.2
0.2
0.7
0.7
-0.1
0.4
0.9
1.0
0.7
Floating storage/Oil in transit

Miscellaneous to balance7
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.6
0.3
-0.2
-0.3
0.7
0.3
-0.1
-0.1
1.5
0.0
0.5
-0.1
0.7
0.2
1.1
0.0
0.7
Total Stock Ch. & Misc
0.1
-0.7
0.3
1.1
1.0
1.3
0.9
1.5
2.3
1.5
Memo items:
Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch.8
31.2 31.1
29.7 29.0 29.6 29.2 29.4
29.0 29.2 30.3 30.3 29.7
30.5 30.8 31.9 31.9 31.3
1 Measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international marine bunkers, refinery fuel, crude for direct burning,
oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply.
2 Other Asia includes Indonesia throughout. Latin America excludes Ecuador throughout. Africa excludes Angola throughout.
Total Non-OPEC excludes all countries that were members of OPEC at 1 January 2011.
Total OPEC comprises all countries which were OPEC members at 1 January 2011.
3 Net volumetric gains and losses in the refining process and marine transportation losses.
4 As of the July 2010 OMR, Global Biofuels comprise all world biofuel production including fuel ethanol from the US and Brazil.
5 As of the March 2006 OMR, Venezuelan Orinoco heavy crude production is included within Venezuelan crude estimates. Orimulsion fuel remains within the OPEC NGL and
non-conventional category, but Orimulsion production reportedly ceased from January 2007.
6 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply.
7 Includes changes in non-reported stocks in OECD and non-OECD areas.
8 Equals the arithmetic difference between total demand minus total non-OPEC supply minus OPEC NGLs.
'Please note that OPEC excludes Indonesia in this month's issue.
11 D ECEMBER 2015
53
T ABLES
Table 1a
WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND: CHANGES FROM LAST MONTH'S TABLE 1
Table 1a: World Oil Supply And Demand:
Changes From Last Months Table
1
2012 2013
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2014
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2015
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016
OECD DEMAND
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
0.1
-
-0.2
-0.1
-
-0.1
-
-0.1
-
-0.1
-
-0.1
-
-0.1
-
-0.1
-
Total OECD
0.1
-0.4
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia
Americas
Middle East
Africa
0.1
-
0.1
-
0.2
0.1
-0.1
-
0.1
-
0.1
-0.1
-
0.1
-0.1
-
0.2
-0.1
-
0.2
-0.1
-
0.1
-0.1
-
Total Non-OECD
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
Total Demand
0.1
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
0.1
-
0.1
-
0.1
-
0.1
-
0.1
-
Total OECD
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia
Americas
Middle East
Africa
0.1
-
-0.1
-
-0.1
-0.1
-
-0.1
-
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
Total Non-OECD
NON-OECD DEMAND
OECD SUPPLY
NON-OECD SUPPLY
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
Processing gains
Global Biofuels
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.2
Crude
NGLs
Total OPEC
0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.2
Total Non-OPEC
OPEC
Total Supply
STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS

REPORTED OECD
Industry
Government
Total
Floating storage/Oil in transit

Miscellaneous to balance
0.1
0.1
0.1
Total Stock Ch. & Misc
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Memo items:
Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch.
When submitting their monthly oil statistics, OECD Member countries periodically update data for prior periods. Similar updates to non-OECD data can occur.
54
11 D ECEMBER 2015
T ABLES
Table 2
SUMMARY OF GLOBAL OIL DEMAND
Table 2: Summary of Global Oil Demand

2013
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
2014
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
2015
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
2016
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
24.07
13.59
8.36
23.88
12.97
8.89
23.72
13.35
7.70
24.37
13.78
7.71
24.56
13.43
8.35
24.14
13.39
8.16
24.24
13.45
8.77
24.09
13.53
7.67
24.72
14.15
7.80
24.38
13.52
8.34
24.36
13.66
8.14
24.29
13.41
8.67
24.12
13.67
7.63
24.60
13.94
7.83
24.74
13.56
8.35
24.44
13.65
8.12
Demand (mb/d)
Total OECD
46.02
45.74
44.77
45.87
46.34
45.68
46.45
45.29
46.67
46.24
46.17
46.38
45.42
46.36
46.66
46.21
Asia
Middle East
Americas
FSU
Africa
Europe
22.06
7.91
6.67
4.72
3.89
0.66
22.45
7.74
6.63
4.63
4.00
0.66
22.72
8.16
6.81
4.86
3.99
0.67
22.22
8.44
6.97
5.14
3.87
0.69
23.16
7.86
6.95
5.05
3.96
0.68
22.64
8.05
6.84
4.92
3.95
0.68
23.40
7.67
6.68
4.58
4.08
0.69
23.79
8.35
6.81
4.90
4.06
0.70
23.57
8.60
6.89
5.04
3.95
0.71
24.38
8.04
6.86
4.92
4.13
0.71
23.79
8.17
6.81
4.86
4.06
0.70
24.29
7.91
6.64
4.66
4.23
0.71
24.75
8.41
6.81
4.79
4.21
0.73
24.48
8.85
6.93
5.02
4.11
0.71
25.00
8.19
6.95
4.91
4.27
0.73
24.63
8.34
6.84
4.84
4.20
0.72
Total Non-OECD
World
45.90
91.92
46.11
91.85
47.21
91.98
47.32
93.19
47.66
94.00
47.08
92.76
47.11
93.56
48.61
93.90
48.76
95.43
49.04
95.28
48.39
94.55
48.43
94.81
49.70
95.11
50.10
96.47
50.05
96.71
49.57
95.78
18.96
8.12
10.26
4.56
3.69
3.46
3.11
2.96
2.37
2.33
2.09
1.92
63.82
18.82
7.85
10.39
5.07
3.81
3.46
3.12
2.78
2.41
2.35
2.00
1.96
64.01
18.77
7.89
10.58
3.93
3.88
3.62
3.17
3.28
2.32
2.31
2.02
1.88
63.64
19.31
8.17
10.47
3.93
3.56
3.86
3.28
3.48
2.44
2.32
2.00
1.85
64.68
19.51
8.03
11.02
4.48
3.80
3.68
3.31
3.02
2.41
2.38
2.02
1.91
65.56
19.11
7.99
10.61
4.35
3.76
3.66
3.22
3.14
2.40
2.34
2.01
1.90
64.48
19.29
8.05
11.02
4.79
3.95
3.38
3.16
2.88
2.36
2.48
1.91
1.83
65.11
19.25
7.97
11.26
3.89
4.01
3.63
3.17
3.46
2.26
2.32
1.95
1.85
65.02
19.68
8.33
11.28
3.94
3.86
3.75
3.22
3.56
2.38
2.39
2.04
1.79
66.22
19.35
7.95
11.44
4.31
4.27
3.57
3.22
3.06
2.37
2.53
2.02
1.89
65.99
19.39
8.08
11.25
4.23
4.02
3.59
3.19
3.24
2.34
2.43
1.98
1.84
65.59
19.37
7.98
11.35
4.62
4.23
3.46
3.09
2.97
2.29
2.55
1.95
1.85
65.72
19.25
8.01
11.72
3.74
4.28
3.50
3.12
3.41
2.25
2.41
1.98
1.86
65.54
19.63
8.16
11.70
3.90
4.03
3.70
3.21
3.73
2.36
2.44
1.97
1.87
66.68
19.73
7.97
11.77
4.34
4.29
3.53
3.25
3.10
2.34
2.50
2.02
1.93
66.77
19.50
8.03
11.64
4.15
4.21
3.54
3.17
3.30
2.31
2.47
1.98
1.88
66.18
69.4%
69.7%
69.2%
69.4%
69.7%
69.5%
69.6%
69.2%
69.4%
69.3%
69.4%
69.3%
68.9%
69.1%
69.0%
69.1%
of which: US50
Europe 5*
China
Japan
India
Russia
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Korea
Mexico
Iran
Total
% of World
Annual Change (% per annum)

Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
1.9
-1.3
-2.1
0.4
-1.0
0.3
-0.6
-3.3
-2.4
0.2
-1.0
-4.2
1.0
-0.7
-3.5
0.3
-1.5
-2.4
1.5
3.7
-1.4
1.6
1.3
-0.4
1.4
2.6
1.2
-0.7
0.6
0.0
0.9
2.1
-0.2
0.2
-0.2
-1.2
0.1
1.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.4
0.3
1.5
0.4
0.1
0.3
-0.1
-0.3
Total OECD
0.2
0.0
-1.7
-0.9
-0.3
-0.7
1.6
1.2
1.8
-0.2
1.1
-0.2
0.3
-0.7
0.9
0.1
Asia
Middle East
Americas
FSU
Africa
Europe
3.6
0.8
2.4
1.9
2.0
-4.1
2.1
2.0
3.3
5.4
0.0
5.5
2.9
2.0
2.4
5.9
0.8
1.5
2.2
0.5
2.7
4.3
4.5
3.7
3.3
2.7
2.0
2.2
1.7
0.8
2.6
1.8
2.6
4.4
1.7
2.8
4.2
-0.9
0.6
-1.0
2.0
5.4
4.7
2.4
0.0
0.7
1.7
4.8
6.1
1.9
-1.1
-2.0
2.1
2.5
5.2
2.3
-1.3
-2.4
4.3
3.4
5.1
1.5
-0.5
-1.2
2.6
4.0
3.8
3.1
-0.5
1.7
3.7
2.3
4.0
0.7
0.0
-2.2
3.6
3.7
3.8
2.9
0.6
-0.6
4.1
1.3
2.5
1.9
1.4
-0.3
3.3
2.8
3.5
2.1
0.4
-0.4
3.7
2.5
Total Non-OECD
World
2.5
1.3
2.4
1.2
2.8
0.5
2.4
0.7
2.7
1.2
2.6
0.9
2.2
1.9
3.0
2.1
3.0
2.4
2.9
1.4
2.8
1.9
2.8
1.3
2.2
1.3
2.8
1.1
2.1
1.5
2.5
1.3
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
0.44
-0.18
-0.18
0.10
-0.13
0.03
-0.13
-0.46
-0.19
0.06
-0.14
-0.34
0.23
-0.09
-0.30
0.07
-0.20
-0.20
0.36
0.48
-0.12
0.37
0.18
-0.03
0.35
0.36
0.09
-0.18
0.08
0.00
0.22
0.28
-0.02
0.06
-0.03
-0.10
0.03
0.13
-0.04
-0.13
-0.20
0.02
0.36
0.05
0.01
0.08
-0.02
-0.02
Total OECD
0.08
0.01
-0.78
-0.42
-0.16
-0.34
0.72
0.52
0.81
-0.10
0.48
-0.08
0.12
-0.31
0.41
0.04
Asia
Middle East
Americas
FSU
Africa
Europe
0.77
0.06
0.15
0.09
0.08
-0.03
0.45
0.15
0.21
0.24
0.00
0.03
0.64
0.16
0.16
0.27
0.03
0.01
0.47
0.04
0.18
0.21
0.17
0.02
0.74
0.21
0.13
0.11
0.07
0.01
0.58
0.14
0.17
0.21
0.07
0.02
0.95
-0.07
0.04
-0.05
0.08
0.04
1.07
0.19
0.00
0.04
0.07
0.03
1.35
0.16
-0.08
-0.10
0.08
0.02
1.21
0.18
-0.09
-0.12
0.17
0.02
1.15
0.12
-0.03
-0.06
0.10
0.03
0.88
0.24
-0.03
0.08
0.15
0.02
0.96
0.06
0.00
-0.11
0.15
0.03
0.91
0.25
0.04
-0.03
0.16
0.01
0.62
0.15
0.09
-0.01
0.14
0.02
0.84
0.17
0.03
-0.02
0.15
0.02
Total Non-OECD
World
1.12
1.20
1.09
1.10
1.26
0.48
1.10
0.68
1.26
1.10
1.18
0.84
1.00
1.71
1.40
1.92
1.44
2.24
1.38
1.28
1.31
1.79
1.33
1.25
1.08
1.21
1.34
1.03
1.01
1.42
1.19
1.23
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.02
0.07
0.02
-0.25
-0.13
-0.02
-0.07
-0.01
0.00
-0.10
-0.04
-0.01
-0.07
0.00
0.01
-0.06
0.01
0.01
-0.10
-0.03
-0.02
-0.08
-0.01
0.00
Annual Change (mb/d)
Revisions to Oil Demand from Last Month's Report (mb/d)

Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
Total OECD
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.07
-0.40
-0.08
-0.15
-0.06
-0.04
-0.15
-0.10
Asia
Middle East
Americas
FSU
Africa
Europe
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.06
-0.02
-0.03
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
-0.03
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
-0.03
-0.01
0.02
0.00
0.21
0.04
-0.07
-0.02
0.00
0.00
0.07
0.03
-0.04
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.09
0.01
-0.06
-0.01
0.01
0.00
0.07
0.02
-0.06
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.18
0.04
-0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.23
0.01
-0.06
-0.02
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.02
-0.06
-0.01
0.00
0.00
Total Non-OECD
World
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.02
-0.03
-0.01
0.01
0.02
0.00
0.01
0.03
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.07
0.14
0.16
-0.23
0.06
-0.02
0.04
-0.11
0.03
-0.03
0.15
0.12
0.16
0.01
0.09
0.00
0.00
-0.03
0.15
-0.25
-0.03
-0.13
-0.03
-0.02
0.24
0.02
Revisions to Oil Demand Growth from Last Month's Report (mb/d)

World
0.02
0.02
0.01
-0.03
0.01
0.00
* France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK
11 D ECEMBER 2015
55
T ABLES
Table 2a
1
OECD REGIONAL OIL DEMAND

Table 2a: OECD Regional Oil Demand
Latest month vs.

2
Aug 15
Sep 14
2.88
0.34
11.00
1.80
5.28
0.59
2.33
-0.13
0.00
-0.23
-0.09
0.19
-0.07
-0.29
-0.23
0.00
0.44
0.05
0.07
-0.01
-0.38
24.86
24.22
-0.64
-0.06
1.14
1.15
2.07
1.45
6.22
0.91
1.20
1.15
1.12
2.00
1.51
6.10
0.86
1.20
1.04
1.10
2.00
1.52
6.66
0.85
1.20
-0.11
-0.02
0.00
0.02
0.56
-0.02
0.00
-0.04
0.13
0.03
0.18
0.32
-0.07
-0.13
14.15
14.14
13.94
14.37
0.43
0.41
0.73
1.88
1.53
0.68
1.76
0.60
0.48
0.75
1.95
1.64
0.69
1.76
0.54
0.46
0.81
1.87
1.63
0.64
1.72
0.55
0.47
0.73
2.00
1.71
0.68
1.75
0.56
0.50
0.72
1.99
1.58
0.76
1.82
0.52
0.42
-0.01
-0.01
-0.13
0.08
0.06
-0.04
-0.09
-0.06
0.21
0.01
0.05
0.08
-0.05
-0.05
8.77
7.67
7.80
7.68
7.93
7.79
-0.14
0.19
5.34
3.35
14.22
3.96
13.39
2.14
3.94
5.57
3.64
13.81
4.03
13.53
2.15
3.73
4.83
3.33
14.48
3.83
12.84
1.89
4.09
4.88
3.40
14.82
4.06
13.25
2.04
4.23
5.08
3.31
14.94
4.03
13.05
2.09
4.39
4.89
3.46
14.94
4.08
12.95
2.08
4.33
4.65
3.42
14.57
4.08
13.76
1.95
3.95
-0.25
-0.04
-0.37
0.00
0.81
-0.13
-0.38
-0.34
0.33
0.48
0.28
0.48
-0.13
-0.56
46.34
46.45
45.29
46.67
46.90
46.73
46.38
-0.35
0.54
2013
2014
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
Jul 15
Aug 15
Sep 15
LPG and ethane

Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
Gasoil/diesel oil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
3.28
0.38
10.55
1.70
5.06
0.72
2.38
3.22
0.35
10.64
1.74
5.28
0.58
2.32
3.45
0.35
10.73
1.76
5.39
0.59
2.29
3.48
0.35
10.49
1.72
5.52
0.51
2.17
2.98
0.31
10.97
1.81
5.11
0.44
2.47
3.01
0.33
11.16
1.88
5.16
0.63
2.56
3.14
0.30
11.25
1.94
5.11
0.63
2.72
3.01
0.34
11.23
1.90
5.09
0.66
2.62
Total
24.07
24.14
24.56
24.24
24.09
24.72
25.07
1.06
1.13
1.93
1.22
5.97
1.00
1.28
1.07
1.16
1.91
1.24
5.91
0.91
1.18
1.06
1.04
1.89
1.21
6.17
0.91
1.14
1.20
1.25
1.78
1.19
6.16
0.88
1.00
1.13
1.13
1.98
1.34
5.97
0.85
1.13
1.11
1.12
2.02
1.49
6.32
0.87
1.20
13.59
13.39
13.43
13.45
13.53
LPG and ethane

Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
Gasoil/diesel oil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
0.86
1.85
1.60
0.88
1.77
0.77
0.63
0.84
1.88
1.57
0.86
1.77
0.67
0.57
0.83
1.96
1.60
0.98
1.83
0.63
0.51
0.90
2.04
1.54
1.11
1.85
0.77
0.56
Total
8.36
8.16
8.35
LPG and ethane

Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
Gasoil/diesel oil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
5.21
3.36
14.07
3.80
12.80
2.49
4.29
5.14
3.39
14.12
3.83
12.97
2.16
4.06
Total
46.02
45.68
Americas
Europe
LPG and ethane
Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
Gasoil/diesel oil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
Total
Asia Oceania
OECD
1 Demand, measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international bunkers and refinery fuel. It includes crude for direct burning, oil from
non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Jet/kerosene comprises jet kerosene and non-aviation kerosene. Gasoil comprises diesel, light heating oil and other gasoils.
North America comprises US 50 states, US territories, Mexico and Canada.
2 Latest official OECD submissions (MOS).
56
11 D ECEMBER 2015
T ABLES
Table 2b
OIL DEMAND IN SELECTED OECD COUNTRIES1
(million barrels per

day)
Table 2b: Oil Demand in Selected OECD
Countries
Latest month vs.

2013
2014
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
Jul 15
Aug 15
Sep 15
2.44
0.27
8.84
1.44
3.83
0.32
1.82
2.40
0.23
8.92
1.48
4.04
0.26
1.78
2.58
0.24
9.00
1.51
4.12
0.28
1.76
2.62
0.23
8.81
1.46
4.27
0.24
1.66
2.18
0.20
9.26
1.55
3.88
0.19
1.99
2.20
0.22
9.39
1.59
3.93
0.31
2.04
2.33
0.19
9.44
1.64
3.88
0.33
2.18
2.19
0.24
9.47
1.60
3.89
0.32
2.12
18.96
19.11
19.51
19.29
19.25
19.68
19.98
Diesel
Other gasoil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
0.52
0.77
0.95
0.53
0.41
0.41
0.46
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.92
0.52
0.40
0.40
0.41
0.44
0.50
0.83
0.94
0.61
0.41
0.41
0.38
0.40
0.57
0.84
0.88
0.73
0.43
0.42
0.46
0.46
0.42
0.75
0.89
0.35
0.42
0.33
0.34
0.40
0.41
0.79
0.97
0.35
0.43
0.32
0.31
0.38
Total
4.56
4.35
4.48
4.79
3.89
Diesel
Other gasoil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
0.11
0.39
0.43
0.19
0.70
0.43
0.12
0.07
0.09
0.42
0.44
0.19
0.73
0.36
0.12
0.05
0.08
0.41
0.44
0.18
0.75
0.38
0.14
0.04
0.09
0.43
0.40
0.17
0.71
0.45
0.12
0.01
Total
2.44
2.40
2.41
Diesel
Other gasoil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
0.11
0.05
0.20
0.09
0.45
0.10
0.08
0.18
0.11
0.09
0.20
0.09
0.50
0.04
0.06
0.14
Total
1.26
Aug 15
Sep 14
2.07
0.24
9.27
1.54
4.02
0.28
1.82
-0.12
0.00
-0.20
-0.06
0.13
-0.04
-0.30
-0.27
0.00
0.45
0.04
0.08
0.00
-0.32
19.81
19.23
-0.59
-0.02
0.43
0.76
0.96
0.31
0.42
0.31
0.32
0.37
0.39
0.77
1.03
0.34
0.42
0.30
0.34
0.42
0.40
0.85
0.91
0.40
0.44
0.33
0.26
0.34
0.01
0.08
-0.12
0.06
0.02
0.03
-0.07
-0.08
-0.04
0.19
-0.01
0.01
0.03
-0.03
-0.07
0.00
3.94
3.88
4.00
3.94
-0.06
0.09
0.11
0.38
0.44
0.20
0.76
0.24
0.13
0.04
0.10
0.36
0.45
0.21
0.81
0.34
0.13
0.06
0.11
0.37
0.46
0.21
0.84
0.27
0.13
0.04
0.10
0.38
0.45
0.21
0.77
0.34
0.12
0.06
0.11
0.34
0.44
0.20
0.81
0.42
0.13
0.08
0.01
-0.04
-0.01
0.00
0.04
0.09
0.01
0.02
0.02
-0.03
-0.01
0.01
0.02
0.00
0.02
0.01
2.39
2.30
2.46
2.42
2.43
2.53
0.10
0.03
0.11
0.08
0.20
0.08
0.52
0.05
0.06
0.13
0.13
0.11
0.19
0.08
0.44
0.09
0.08
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.21
0.10
0.47
0.09
0.08
0.14
0.11
0.11
0.23
0.11
0.47
0.10
0.08
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.24
0.12
0.51
0.10
0.09
0.15
0.11
0.12
0.22
0.12
0.42
0.09
0.08
0.12
0.12
0.11
0.23
0.11
0.48
0.10
0.09
0.13
0.01
-0.01
0.01
-0.01
0.05
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.03
0.00
-0.06
0.08
0.02
-0.02
1.22
1.24
1.22
1.31
1.35
1.42
1.27
1.36
0.09
0.09
Diesel
Other gasoil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
0.12
0.12
0.16
0.15
0.69
0.28
0.06
0.13
0.11
0.12
0.16
0.15
0.70
0.25
0.05
0.12
0.12
0.07
0.16
0.14
0.71
0.27
0.05
0.11
0.15
0.12
0.14
0.14
0.67
0.29
0.05
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.17
0.16
0.71
0.20
0.04
0.12
0.11
0.12
0.18
0.17
0.72
0.28
0.04
0.10
0.11
0.13
0.19
0.18
0.77
0.23
0.04
0.12
0.11
0.13
0.17
0.17
0.65
0.29
0.03
0.08
0.11
0.09
0.17
0.16
0.73
0.33
0.04
0.11
0.00
-0.04
0.00
-0.02
0.08
0.04
0.01
0.03
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.04
-0.01
-0.03
Total
1.71
1.65
1.63
1.68
1.63
1.71
1.77
1.63
1.75
0.12
0.02
Diesel
Other gasoil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
0.11
0.03
0.31
0.31
0.46
0.12
0.04
0.13
0.11
0.02
0.30
0.31
0.48
0.12
0.03
0.13
0.11
0.03
0.30
0.32
0.50
0.11
0.03
0.12
0.14
0.02
0.29
0.33
0.47
0.13
0.02
0.11
0.14
0.02
0.30
0.30
0.50
0.14
0.02
0.11
0.12
0.03
0.30
0.31
0.50
0.14
0.03
0.13
0.12
0.03
0.29
0.27
0.49
0.13
0.03
0.13
0.12
0.03
0.30
0.32
0.51
0.15
0.03
0.12
0.13
0.04
0.30
0.35
0.50
0.15
0.03
0.13
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.03
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.02
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.03
0.00
-0.01
Total
1.50
1.51
1.53
1.52
1.54
1.56
1.49
1.58
1.62
0.04
0.11
Diesel
Other gasoil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
0.38
0.09
0.81
0.14
0.29
0.30
0.06
0.31
0.37
0.09
0.84
0.13
0.29
0.30
0.06
0.30
0.40
0.09
0.83
0.13
0.31
0.29
0.07
0.30
0.40
0.10
0.79
0.13
0.32
0.27
0.06
0.29
0.36
0.09
0.82
0.13
0.31
0.24
0.04
0.26
0.37
0.09
0.85
0.16
0.32
0.26
0.03
0.31
0.35
0.08
0.87
0.16
0.32
0.23
0.03
0.33
0.38
0.10
0.86
0.16
0.32
0.25
0.03
0.28
0.37
0.08
0.82
0.15
0.32
0.30
0.02
0.31
-0.01
-0.02
-0.04
-0.02
0.00
0.05
-0.01
0.03
0.04
-0.02
-0.04
0.01
0.01
-0.04
-0.03
-0.04
Total
2.37
2.40
2.41
2.36
2.26
2.38
2.37
2.39
2.37
-0.01
-0.10
United States3
LPG and ethane
Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
Gasoil/diesel oil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
Total
Japan
LPG and ethane
Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
Germany
LPG and ethane
Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
Italy
LPG and ethane
Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
France
LPG and ethane
Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
United Kingdom
LPG and ethane
Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
Canada
LPG and ethane
Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
1 Demand, measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international bunkers and refinery fuel. It includes crude for direct burning, oil from
non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Jet/kerosene comprises jet kerosene and non-aviation kerosene. Gasoil comprises diesel, light heating oil and other gasoils.
2 Latest official OECD submissions (MOS).
3 US figures exclude US territories.
11 D ECEMBER 2015
57
T ABLES
Table 3
WORLD OIL PRODUCTION
Table 3: World Oil Production

2015
Table 3a: Oil Supply in OECD2014
Countries
2016
2Q15
3Q15
10.29
2.85
3.94
2.87
2.72
0.09
0.66
1.76
1.77
0.46
1.11
0.55
2.43
10.27
2.87
4.24
2.92
2.76
0.04
0.64
1.77
1.80
0.38
1.12
0.53
2.40
31.50
6.52
31.74
6.57
38.03
38.32
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
Sep 15
Oct 15
Nov 15
10.18
2.88
4.30
2.91
2.79
0.04
0.65
1.79
1.86
0.37
1.12
0.53
2.38
10.19
2.88
4.17
2.89
2.71
0.04
0.67
1.78
1.90
0.43
1.11
0.53
2.38
10.17
2.87
4.31
2.89
2.78
0.04
0.68
1.74
1.82
0.38
1.11
0.54
2.40
31.80
6.57
31.68
6.64
31.73
6.64
38.37
38.32
38.37
OPEC
Crude Oil
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Iraq
UAE
Kuwait
Neutral Zone
Qatar
Angola
Nigeria
Libya
Algeria
Ecuador
Venezuela
9.53
2.81
3.33
2.76
2.61
0.38
0.71
1.66
1.90
0.46
1.12
0.55
2.46
Total Crude Oil

Total NGLs1
30.28
6.36
Total OPEC
36.65
6.55
6.79
6.64
6.68
6.75
NON-OPEC2
OECD
Americas
19.03
19.80
19.42
19.51
19.94
19.85
19.52
19.25
19.65
19.71
19.92
11.94
2.81
4.28
0.01
12.82
2.60
4.36
0.01
12.41
2.53
4.47
0.01
12.91
2.56
4.04
0.01
12.95
2.60
4.38
0.01
12.77
2.60
4.47
0.01
12.46
2.58
4.47
0.01
12.40
2.55
4.29
0.01
13.00
2.59
4.04
0.01
12.76
2.60
4.35
0.01
12.80
2.60
4.50
0.01
Europe
3.32
3.42
3.25
3.49
3.35
3.43
3.40
3.22
3.31
3.44
3.44
UK
Norway
Others
0.86
1.89
0.57
0.94
1.92
0.55
0.91
1.82
0.52
1.01
1.93
0.55
0.89
1.91
0.55
0.98
1.92
0.54
1.00
1.88
0.53
0.91
1.79
0.52
0.90
1.86
0.55
0.96
1.95
0.54
0.99
1.92
0.53
0.51
0.47
0.49
0.44
0.50
0.49
0.49
0.49
0.48
0.50
0.49
0.43
0.08
0.38
0.08
0.40
0.09
0.36
0.09
0.42
0.09
0.40
0.09
0.40
0.09
0.40
0.09
0.40
0.09
0.41
0.09
0.40
0.09
22.86
23.68
23.16
23.45
23.79
23.77
23.42
22.96
23.44
23.65
23.84
13.87
13.97
13.87
13.97
13.91
13.94
13.94
13.91
13.92
13.94
13.99
10.91
2.95
11.05
2.91
11.07
2.80
11.03
2.93
11.04
2.87
11.12
2.82
11.11
2.83
11.09
2.82
11.08
2.84
11.12
2.82
11.12
2.87
United States5
Mexico
Canada
Chile
Asia Oceania
Australia
Others
Total OECD
NON-OECD
Former USSR
Russia
Others
Asia
7.71
7.90
7.74
7.95
7.86
7.88
7.83
7.76
7.95
7.86
7.90
China
Malaysia
India
Indonesia
Others
4.22
0.67
0.88
0.84
1.11
4.33
0.71
0.87
0.83
1.15
4.29
0.66
0.83
0.86
1.11
4.36
0.74
0.86
0.84
1.16
4.34
0.67
0.87
0.83
1.15
4.35
0.67
0.87
0.85
1.14
4.30
0.68
0.85
0.87
1.12
4.29
0.66
0.83
0.87
1.11
4.38
0.69
0.88
0.84
1.17
4.32
0.66
0.87
0.85
1.15
4.36
0.69
0.88
0.85
1.13
Europe
Americas
0.14
4.40
0.14
4.54
0.13
4.66
0.14
4.54
0.14
4.54
0.14
4.49
0.13
4.61
0.13
4.61
0.14
4.50
0.14
4.49
0.14
4.35
Brazil5
Argentina
Colombia
Others
2.35
0.63
0.99
0.42
2.52
0.63
1.00
0.39
2.68
0.64
0.96
0.38
2.50
0.63
1.03
0.38
2.56
0.63
0.98
0.37
2.48
0.63
0.98
0.39
2.61
0.63
0.97
0.40
2.64
0.64
0.96
0.37
2.49
0.63
1.01
0.37
2.50
0.63
0.98
0.38
2.34
0.63
0.99
0.39
1.31
1.24
1.18
1.23
1.23
1.20
1.20
1.19
1.22
1.23
1.20
0.94
0.03
0.15
0.19
0.98
0.03
0.05
0.19
0.94
0.03
0.03
0.19
0.98
0.03
0.04
0.19
0.99
0.03
0.02
0.19
0.97
0.03
0.02
0.19
0.96
0.03
0.03
0.19
0.95
0.03
0.03
0.19
0.99
0.03
0.02
0.19
1.00
0.03
0.02
0.19
0.97
0.03
0.02
0.19
2.31
2.31
2.28
2.32
2.30
2.29
2.28
2.27
2.31
2.30
2.29
0.71
0.24
1.36
0.72
0.23
1.35
0.69
0.23
1.37
0.72
0.23
1.36
0.73
0.23
1.34
0.72
0.23
1.34
0.71
0.23
1.34
0.70
0.23
1.35
0.72
0.23
1.35
0.72
0.23
1.34
0.72
0.23
1.34
29.73
30.09
29.87
30.15
29.98
29.94
29.99
29.87
30.04
29.95
29.87
2.21
2.23
2.24
2.31
2.33
2.36
2.24
2.38
2.24
2.59
2.24
2.43
2.32
1.90
2.31
2.39
2.24
2.55
2.24
2.64
2.24
2.53
57.03
93.68
58.32
57.71
58.22
96.24
58.60
96.91
58.38
57.62
57.53
58.28
96.65
58.48
96.80
58.48
96.85
Middle East3
Oman
Syria
Yemen
Others
Africa
Egypt
Gabon
Others
Total Non-OECD
Processing gains
5
Global Biofuels
TOTAL NON-OPEC
TOTAL SUPPLY
1 Includes condensates reported by OPEC countries, oil from non-conventional sources, e.g. Venezuelan Orimulsion (but not Orinoco extra-heavy oil),
and non-oil inputs to Saudi Arabian MTBE. Orimulsion production reportedly ceased from January 2007.
2 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs and oil from non-conventional sources
3 Includes small amounts of production from Jordan and Bahrain.
4 Net volumetric gains and losses in refining and marine transportation losses.
5 As of the July 2010 OMR, Global Biofuels comprise all world biofuel production including fuel ethanol from the US and Brazil.
58
11 D ECEMBER 2015
T ABLES
Table 4
1
OECD INDUSTRY STOCKS AND QUARTERLY STOCK CHANGES
Table 4: OECD Industry Stocks and Quarterly Stock Changes

RECENT MONTHLY STOCKS2
Table 4a: Industry Stocks on Land

in Selected Countries
in Million Barrels
PRIOR YEARS' STOCKS2
STOCK CHANGES
in Million Barrels
in mb/d
Jun2015
Jul2015
Aug2015
Sep2015
Oct2015*
Oct2012
Oct2013
Oct2014
4Q2014
1Q2015
2Q2015
3Q2015
Crude
625.5
617.2
614.4
615.6
637.0
514.4
534.2
539.3
0.41
Motor Gasoline
251.2
248.4
249.6
257.5
246.7
238.8
246.6
237.1
0.33
0.81
0.00
-0.11
-0.11
-0.16
Middle Distillate
213.0
216.0
228.1
219.8
207.5
195.1
187.6
188.2
0.06
-0.10
0.14
0.07
0.07
48.4
47.3
44.8
47.1
50.2
47.2
43.5
43.9
-0.03
0.05
0.03
-0.01
734.6
738.3
759.2
763.5
738.7
682.4
676.4
691.4
0.10
-0.39
0.43
0.31
1537.4
1542.4
1563.5
1569.9
1566.0
1369.0
1375.5
1413.3
0.33
0.41
0.59
0.35
-0.05
OECD Americas
Residual Fuel Oil

Total Products3
Total
OECD Europe
344.1
339.1
342.9
339.4
343.6
320.8
334.8
315.0
0.04
0.28
0.00
Motor Gasoline
85.5
83.5
84.8
89.2
89.6
92.1
87.3
83.9
0.04
0.13
-0.18
0.04
Middle Distillate
277.8
282.6
297.4
301.6
302.2
251.8
245.6
250.4
-0.17
0.11
0.20
0.26
Residual Fuel Oil

3
Total Products
66.8
68.5
71.0
69.0
69.5
79.5
68.3
62.0
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.02
523.0
526.0
550.5
555.7
556.1
521.4
490.3
495.4
-0.11
0.25
-0.01
0.36
Total4
939.3
933.4
961.7
964.8
968.8
908.0
890.9
881.9
-0.12
0.60
0.00
0.28
Crude
OECD Asia Oceania

201.3
204.9
204.7
202.2
200.8
176.0
158.0
184.2
-0.06
0.05
0.26
0.01
Motor Gasoline
25.3
24.7
23.6
23.6
23.5
27.7
24.7
22.3
-0.02
0.02
0.03
-0.02
Middle Distillate
61.2
65.6
70.2
67.0
65.5
70.7
68.2
67.8
-0.07
-0.09
0.06
0.06
Residual Fuel Oil

3
Total Products
19.4
19.8
21.2
22.4
22.0
20.4
19.1
21.2
-0.02
-0.03
0.01
0.03
165.2
170.2
178.3
175.7
170.4
187.0
180.1
179.8
-0.16
-0.18
0.14
0.11
429.5
438.6
449.1
444.7
436.5
436.5
409.3
433.8
-0.33
-0.15
0.41
0.17
Crude
Total
Total OECD
1170.9
1161.2
1162.0
1157.2
1181.3
1011.2
1026.9
1038.5
0.40
1.15
0.26
-0.15
Motor Gasoline
362.0
356.6
358.0
370.3
359.8
358.6
358.6
343.3
0.35
0.04
-0.32
0.09
Middle Distillate
552.0
564.1
595.7
588.4
575.2
517.5
501.4
506.4
-0.18
-0.07
0.39
0.40
Residual Fuel Oil

3
Total Products
134.6
135.6
137.1
138.4
141.8
147.0
130.8
127.2
-0.03
0.04
0.06
0.04
1422.8
1434.5
1487.9
1494.9
1465.1
1390.7
1346.8
1366.5
-0.18
-0.32
0.56
0.78
Total4
2906.2
2914.4
2974.4
2979.5
2971.2
2713.4
2675.7
2729.1
-0.12
0.86
1.00
0.80
Crude
OECD GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED STOCKS5 AND QUARTERLY STOCK CHANGES

RECENT MONTHLY STOCKS2
PRIOR YEARS' STOCKS2
in Million Barrels
in Million Barrels
STOCK CHANGES
in mb/d
Jun2015
Jul2015
Aug2015
Sep2015
Oct2015*
Oct2012
Oct2013
Oct2014
4Q2014
1Q2015
2Q2015
3Q2015
693.9
695.1
695.1
695.1
695.1
695.0
696.0
691.0
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.01
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
OECD Americas
Crude
Products
OECD Europe
Crude
207.4
207.8
207.1
208.1
205.1
195.7
204.8
209.1
0.02
-0.01
-0.02
0.01
Products
259.1
256.1
255.4
254.6
255.6
234.7
260.6
254.1
0.00
0.01
0.01
-0.05
385.6
384.4
383.3
381.4
381.5
393.5
385.7
384.7
-0.01
0.02
-0.01
-0.05
32.8
33.4
33.7
33.7
33.7
20.0
29.9
31.0
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
1286.9
1287.3
1285.5
1284.6
1281.7
1284.2
1286.5
1284.7
0.01
0.01
0.00
-0.02
292.9
290.5
290.1
289.3
290.3
255.7
291.6
286.1
0.01
0.02
0.02
-0.04
1584.0
1582.0
1579.6
1578.3
1576.4
1541.1
1581.8
1575.5
0.02
0.03
0.02
-0.06
OECD Asia Oceania

Crude
Products
Total OECD
Crude
Products
Total4
* estimated
1 Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) and include stocks held by
industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserve commitments and are subject to government control in emergencies.
2 Closing stock levels.
3 Total products includes gasoline, middle distillates, fuel oil and other products.
4 Total includes NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons.
5 Includes government-owned stocks and stock holding organisation stocks held for emergency purposes.
11 D ECEMBER 2015
59
T ABLES
Table 5
1
TOTAL STOCKS ON LAND IN OECD COUNTRIES
of barrels' and 'days')

Table 5: Total Stocks on Land in('millions
OECD
Countries
End September 2014
End December 2014
End March 2015
End June 2015
End September 2015
Stock
Days Fwd2
Stock Days Fwd
Stock Days Fwd
Stock Days Fwd
Stock Days Fwd
Level
Demand
Level Demand
Level Demand
Level Demand
Level
Demand
OECD Americas
Canada
Chile
Mexico
United States4
186.1
10.1
48.8
1840.7
77
32
24
94
193.1
9.7
52.8
1860.5
82
28
28
96
182.8
11.3
49.8
1909.4
81
33
26
99
175.6
11.8
50.4
1972.2
74
36
25
100
181.0
11.2
49.5
2002.1
Total4
2107.8
86
2138.3
88
2175.3
90
2232.2
90
2266.0
93
Australia
Israel
Japan
Korea
New Zealand
38.6
608.2
196.6
9.2
35
136
83
56
36.2
580.7
196.8
8.4
33
121
79
49
34.1
567.7
201.0
8.7
32
146
87
56
35.9
578.3
224.6
9.0
33
147
94
59
35.5
589.6
226.0
8.7
Total
852.6
102
822.1
94
811.6
106
847.9
109
859.8
103
22.0
43.8
21.0
23.0
1.8
38.7
171.3
283.0
29.6
18.2
10.0
123.0
0.8
126.8
24.5
63.5
23.0
10.6
4.8
122.7
27.8
38.8
62.5
74.3
84
69
103
152
55
204
105
118
97
121
67
100
14
143
125
120
93
152
92
100
92
156
87
49
22.9
42.4
21.9
25.8
1.6
37.9
167.8
284.2
26.5
18.7
9.3
119.4
0.9
123.3
24.2
63.2
22.2
11.4
4.6
121.3
29.1
37.3
62.4
77.8
92
63
116
173
57
213
100
119
91
136
63
98
15
138
110
125
94
152
96
98
98
161
81
51
23.7
42.7
21.7
29.0
1.5
44.1
172.9
286.1
31.1
20.0
12.8
121.0
0.7
136.4
23.2
62.7
21.7
11.6
4.9
132.4
31.1
37.3
64.7
76.3
91
68
103
188
50
254
106
124
112
137
90
93
12
155
101
115
86
133
99
111
94
172
75
50
23.2
47.6
21.5
28.4
1.5
45.0
169.8
287.2
27.8
20.5
11.1
117.1
0.6
140.2
25.9
62.6
21.8
11.4
4.7
132.8
29.3
37.2
65.7
77.2
83
73
106
178
46
229
99
117
91
130
74
87
12
152
121
110
84
140
88
107
90
165
69
49
23.7
50.5
21.0
28.6
1.5
39.9
166.8
283.2
29.2
20.6
11.3
117.2
0.6
153.5
25.1
63.9
23.0
11.0
4.6
139.0
31.3
36.3
71.2
78.8
1365.6
4326.0
102
93
1356.0
4316.3
101
93
1409.7
4396.5
104
97
1410.0
4490.1
100
96
1431.9
4557.7
106
99
OECD Asia Oceania
OECD Europe5
Austria
Belgium
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
Total
Total OECD
DAYS OF IEA Net Imports6 -
168
168
172
194
197
1 Total Stocks are industry and government-controlled stocks (see breakdown in table below). Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks
and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) they include stocks held by industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserves commitments and are
subject to government control in emergencies.
2 Note that days of forward demand represent the stock level divided by the forward quarter average daily demand and is very different from the days of net
imports used for the calculation of IEA Emergency Reserves.
3 End September 2015 forward demand figures are IEA Secretariat forecasts.
4 US figures exclude US territories. Total includes US territories.
5 Data not available for Iceland.
6 Reflects stock levels and prior calendar year's net imports adjusted according to IEA emergency reserve definitions (see www.iea.org/netimports.asp).
Net exporting IEA countries are excluded.
TOTAL OECD STOCKS

CLOSING STOCKS
Total
Government1
Industry
Total
controlled
Millions of Barrels
3Q2012
4Q2012
1Q2013
2Q2013
3Q2013
4Q2013
1Q2014
2Q2014
3Q2014
4Q2014
1Q2015
2Q2015
3Q2015
4292
4230
4259
4253
4296
4174
4196
4260
4326
4316
4397
4490
4558
1542
1547
1580
1576
1582
1584
1585
1580
1577
1579
1582
1584
1578
Government1
Industry
controlled
Days of Fwd. Demand 2
2750
2683
2680
2676
2715
2589
2611
2681
2749
2737
2815
2906
2979
93
93
94
92
92
91
94
93
93
93
97
96
99
33
34
35
34
34
35
35
34
34
34
35
34
34
59
59
59
58
58
57
58
58
59
59
62
62
64
1 Includes government-owned stocks and stock holding organisation stocks held for emergency purposes.
2 Days of forward demand calculated using actual demand except in 3Q2015 (when latest forecasts are used).
60
11 D ECEMBER 2015
T ABLES
Table 6
IEA MEMBER COUNTRY DESTINATIONS OF SELECTED CRUDE STREAMS1
(million barrels per day) of Selected Crude Streams

Table 6: IEA Member Country Destinations
Year Earlier
2012
2013
2014
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
Jul 15
Aug 15
Sep 15
0.76
0.85
1.26
0.74
0.79
1.21
0.65
0.84
1.17
0.47
0.93
1.08
0.60
0.84
1.18
0.58
0.91
1.37
0.65
0.77
1.25
0.56
0.76
1.14
0.57
0.66
1.20
0.56
0.89
1.15
0.56
1.00
1.11
-0.01
-0.12
0.03
0.44
0.05
0.45
0.45
0.01
0.43
0.36
0.03
0.45
0.36
0.05
0.50
0.25
0.04
0.45
0.24
0.02
0.40
0.37
0.02
0.44
0.39
0.02
0.50
0.45
0.05
0.52
0.41
0.44
0.31
0.11
0.47
0.09
-0.03
0.49
0.26
0.33
0.38
0.25
0.31
0.35
0.50
0.24
0.49
0.50
0.21
0.20
0.70
0.27
0.09
0.50
0.41
0.20
0.48
0.31
0.16
0.85
0.49
0.11
0.93
0.45
1.07
0.31
0.29
0.52
0.23
0.55
0.09
0.22
0.09
0.65
0.28
0.10
0.64
0.27
0.09
0.62
0.25
0.04
0.62
0.22
0.14
0.62
0.15
0.12
0.66
0.21
0.08
0.61
0.21
0.66
0.12
0.19
0.65
0.22
0.08
0.56
0.17
0.00
0.62
0.05
0.08
-0.06
0.12
0.02
0.08
0.00
0.10
0.01
0.11
0.03
0.12
-
0.09
0.03
0.11
-
0.09
0.02
0.07
0.02
0.06
0.04
0.11
0.03
-0.04
0.00
0.16
0.33
0.03
0.30
0.01
0.28
0.01
0.28
0.00
0.26
0.03
0.31
0.01
0.25
0.02
0.21
0.03
0.23
0.05
0.32
0.31
0.01
0.69
0.08
-
0.61
0.07
-
0.64
0.08
-
0.71
0.09
-
0.62
0.09
-
0.67
0.10
-
0.67
0.09
-
0.67
0.07
-
0.68
0.04
-
0.66
0.11
-
0.69
0.07
-
-0.04
0.04
-
0.73
0.14
-
0.70
0.14
-
0.66
0.14
-
0.67
0.13
-
0.66
0.13
-
0.59
0.16
-
0.43
0.13
0.01
0.46
0.16
0.03
0.44
0.17
0.03
0.42
0.24
-
0.65
0.13
-
-0.23
0.11
-
1.41
-
1.49
-
1.71
0.00
0.00
1.81
0.00
1.79
0.01
0.00
1.84
-
1.81
0.01
-
1.91
-
2.04
-
2.08
0.02
-
1.93
0.01
0.15
-
0.02
0.55
0.07
0.03
0.47
0.06
0.01
0.56
0.07
0.53
-
0.01
0.59
0.04
0.01
0.47
0.03
0.48
0.09
0.53
-
0.48
-
0.02
0.55
0.07
0.58
-
-0.03
-
0.00
1.86
-
0.00
1.79
-
1.58
-
1.53
-
1.38
-
1.54
-
1.51
-
1.60
-
1.65
-
1.66
-
1.42
-
0.24
-
0.07
0.53
-
0.06
0.59
0.00
0.01
0.64
0.02
0.58
0.05
0.68
0.01
0.73
0.04
0.01
0.60
0.02
0.65
0.16
0.58
0.17
0.55
0.02
0.64
0.07
-0.10
-0.05
0.03
0.88
0.04
0.00
0.57
0.03
0.31
0.02
0.34
0.03
0.54
0.02
0.20
-
0.23
0.02
0.30
-
0.17
-
0.18
-
0.69
0.02
-0.51
-
0.24
0.58
0.04
0.07
0.53
0.03
0.00
0.55
0.02
0.59
0.03
0.01
0.54
0.00
0.03
0.62
-
0.01
0.53
-
0.05
0.56
-
0.55
-
0.02
0.55
-
0.51
0.01
0.03
-
Sep 14 change
Saudi Light & Extra Light

Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Saudi Medium
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Iraqi Basrah Light2

Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Kuwait Blend
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Iranian Light
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Iranian Heavy3
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Venezuelan 22 API and heavier

Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Mexican Maya
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Canada Heavy
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
BFOE
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Russian Urals
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Kazakhstan
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Libya Light and Medium

Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Nigerian Light4
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
1 Data based on monthly submissions from IEA countries to the crude oil import register (in '000 bbl), subject to availability. May differ from Table 8 of the Report.
IEA Americas includes United States and Canada.
IEA Europe includes all countries in OECD Europe except Estonia, Hungary and Slovenia.
IEA Asia Oceania includes Australia, New Zealand, Korea and Japan.
2 Iraqi Total minus Kirkuk.
3 Iranian Total minus Iranian Light.
4 33 API and lighter (e.g., Bonny Light, Escravos, Qua Iboe and Oso Condensate).
11 D ECEMBER 2015
61
T ABLES
Table 7
REGIONAL OECD IMPORTS1,2
Table 7: Regional OECD Imports
Table 7a: Regional OECD Imports From Non- OECD Countries

2012 OECD
2013 Transfers
2014
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
Jul 15
Table 7b: Inter-Regional
Table 8: Regional OECD Crude Imports by Source
Crude Oil
Table
9: Regional OECD Gasoline Imports by Source
Americas
6101
5130
4201
3755
3869
4085
4071
4196
Table
10: Regional OECD
Gasoil/Diesel
Imports
by 9477
Source 9201
Europe
9346
8926
8689
9056
9605
9449
Table
11: Regional OECD
Jet
and Kerosene
Imports
by Source
Asia Oceania
6761
6557
6381
6331
6871
6426
6485
6663
Table
12:
Regional
OECD
Residual
Fuel
Oil
Imports
by Source
Total OECD
22208
20612
19270
19142
20217
19711
20161
20309
Table 13: Average IEA CIF Crude Cost and Spot Crude and Production Prices
Table
LPG 14: Monthly Average End-User Prices for Petroleum Products
Americas
20
17
12Refining 13
12
5
1
Table
15: IEA/KBC Global
Indicator
Margins13
Europe16: Refined Product
287
382
426
433 Input
479 (%) 361
408
391
Table
Yields
Based
On Total
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
Year Earlier
Aug 15
Sep 15
Sep 14 % change
4117
9412
6666
3893
9966
6114
4084
9157
6308
-5%
9%
-3%
20195
19973
19549
2%
9
420
462
9
520
475
-4%
-19%
-3%
620
546
531
527
537
535
491
467
5
414
543
927
945
969
973
1029
908
904
858
962
890
1004
-11%
20
381
900
17
332
927
20
348
960
13
384
996
20
411
976
14
287
915
12
413
954
8
356
954
13
432
893
13
452
1019
13
310
999
0%
46%
2%
1301
1276
1327
1392
1407
1217
1379
1319
1338
1484
1323
12%
730
212
86
659
106
83
665
131
83
663
114
79
572
125
102
745
114
125
814
72
69
816
1
63
793
101
80
833
116
65
567
186
92
47%
-37%
-29%
1028
848
879
856
799
984
955
880
973
1015
844
20%
73
398
62
81
445
74
100
459
60
104
412
88
148
373
67
152
426
68
132
583
50
158
590
46
152
550
36
84
609
70
140
624
51
-39%
-2%
38%
533
601
618
604
589
646
765
795
738
763
814
-6%
59
984
185
58
1121
162
95
1091
181
81
984
176
157
1112
164
40
1309
188
46
1270
169
24
1136
177
49
1360
149
67
1315
182
54
1282
180
23%
3%
1%
1227
1341
1368
1241
1433
1537
1485
1337
1557
1564
1516
3%
206
521
224
165
552
242
132
618
214
135
559
167
119
690
212
113
484
134
139
513
186
109
644
160
163
483
173
147
407
227
140
646
165
5%
-37%
38%
951
960
964
861
1021
732
838
913
819
781
951
-18%
813
636
357
812
791
386
671
721
374
656
665
307
626
666
317
760
667
306
759
737
343
837
585
307
676
893
360
764
732
362
637
678
308
20%
8%
17%
1806
1989
1766
1628
1609
1734
1839
1729
1929
1859
1624
14%
1921
3419
2433
1810
3729
2421
1695
3794
2402
1665
3550
2339
1655
3857
2375
1836
3649
2272
1907
3994
2264
1953
3703
2174
1851
4231
2234
1917
4051
2387
1560
4247
2270
23%
-5%
5%
7773
7960
7891
7555
7887
7758
8165
7829
8316
8355
8077
3%
8022
12765
9194
6940
12655
8978
5896
12482
8783
5420
12606
8670
5525
13333
9246
5921
12850
8698
5978
13600
8749
6149
13152
8837
5968
13643
8900
5811
14017
8501
5644
13404
8578
3%
5%
-1%
29982
28572
27161
26696
28104
27468
28326
28138
28512
28328
27627
3%
Naphtha
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
Gasoline3
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
Jet & Kerosene
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
Gasoil/Diesel
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
Heavy Fuel Oil
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
Other Products
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
Total Products
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
Total Oil
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
1 Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes and converted to barrels.
2 Excludes intra-regional trade.
3 Includes additives.
62
11 D ECEMBER 2015
OECD/IEA 2015. All Rights Reserved

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Market Report (OMR) and its related publications, the Executive Director and
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Interim Editor
And OPEC Supply
Demand
Peg Mackey
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Matt Parry
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matthew.parry@iea.org
Non-OPEC Supply
Toril Bosoni
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Refining
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Statistics
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11 December 2015

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY - O IL M ARK ET R EPORT

mb/d Demand/Supply Balance until 4Q16* mb/d

*ht9/ output assumed steady at 31.7mb/d through aarch 2016. A gradual

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY - O IL M ARK ET R EPORT

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2014

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2015

1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016

Annual Chg (%)

Annual Chg (mb/d)

Changes from last OMR (mb/d)

Global y-on-y Absolute Growth

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY - O IL M ARK ET R EPORT

OECD Asia & Oceania

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY - O IL M ARK ET R EPORT

OECD Americas: Total Products

OECD Americas: Motor Gasoline

US50: Total Products Demand

US50: LPG Demand

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY - O IL M ARK ET R EPORT

US Institute of Supply Management

US50: Motor Gasoline Demand

Note: 50=contraction/expansion threshold

Mexico: Total Products Demand

Mexico: Gasoil/Diesel Demand

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY - O IL M ARK ET R EPORT

OECD Europe: Total Products

UK: Total Products Demand

Spain: Total Products Demand

France: Total Products Demand

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY - O IL M ARK ET R EPORT

Japan: Total Products Demand

Japan: Residual Fuel Demand

Korea: Total Products Demand

Korea: Gasoil/Diesel Demand

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY - O IL M ARK ET R EPORT

Annual Chg (kb/d)

Annual Chg (%)

LPG & Ethane

Jet Fuel & Kerosene

China: Total Products Demand

China: Motor Gasoline Demand

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY - O IL M ARK ET R EPORT

China: Jet & Kerosene Demand

China: LPG Demand

China: Demand by Product

Annual Chg (kb/d)

Annual Chg (%)

LPG & Ethane

Jet Fuel & Kerosene

China: Gasoil/Diesel Demand

Chinese Manufacturing PMI

Note: 50=contraction/expansion threshold. Sources: Caixin, Markit

Heady vehicle sales support strong Chinese gasoline demand growth

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY - O IL M ARK ET R EPORT

The Chinese authorities do not publish demand statistics, 2.0

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY - O IL M ARK ET R EPORT

India: Total Products Demand

India: Gasoil/Diesel Demand

Brazil: Total Products Demand

Brazil: Gasoil/Diesel Demand

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY - O IL M ARK ET R EPORT

Russia: Total Products Demand

Russia: Residual Fuel Demand