Januari

februari
Maret
April
Mei
Juni
Juli
Agustus
September
Oktober
Nopember
Desember
Januari

1000
3000
2500
4000
1500
4500
6000
8500
9000
10000
5500
9500
5000

12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0

Column F

Forecast Result for Example Problem

Month

9/3/2015 Actual
Forecast byForecast by
Data
SES
SA
1
1000
2
3000
1000
1000
3
2500
1000
2000
4
4000
1000 2166.667
5
1500
1000
2625
6
4500
1000
2400
7
6000
1000
2750
8
8500
1000 3214.286
9
9000
1000
3875
10
10000
1000 4444.444
11
5500
1000
5000
12
9500
1000 5045.455
13
1000 5416.667
14
1000 5416.667
15
1000 5416.667
16
1000 5416.667
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

CFE
MAD
MSE
MAPE
Trk.Signal
R-sqaure

1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000

5416.667
5416.667
5416.667
5416.667
5416.667
5416.667
5416.667
5416.667

53000
4818.182
3.15E+07
75.8661
11
1
Alpha=0
F(0)=1000

29479.15
2884.468
1.17E+07
48.99992
10.21996
1

Forecast by Forecast CFE

MAD
MSE
MAPE (%) Tracking
LR
Error
Signal
1262.82 -262.8197 -262.8197 262.8197 69074.2 26.28197
-1
2018.065 981.9354 719.1157 622.3776 516635.7 29.50658 1.155433
2773.31 -273.3096 445.8062 506.0216 369323.2 23.31518 0.881002
3528.554 471.4458 917.252 497.3776 332557.7 20.43292 1.844176
4283.799 -2783.799 -1866.547 954.6619 1815954 53.46366 -1.955192
5039.044 -539.0439 -2405.591 885.3923 1561723 46.54951 -2.716978
5794.289 205.7109 -2199.88 788.2949 1344665 40.38937 -2.790682
6549.534 1950.466 -249.4141 933.5663 1652122 38.20903 -0.267163
7304.779 1695.221 1445.807 1018.195 1787861 36.05645 1.419971
8060.023 1939.977 3385.784 1110.373 1985426 34.39078 3.049232
8815.269 -3315.269 70.51514 1310.818 2804115 36.74413 5.38E-02
9570.514 -70.51367 1.46E-03 1207.459 2570853 33.74397 1.21E-06
10325.76
11081
11836.25
12591.49
13346.74
14101.98
14857.23
15612.47
16367.72
17122.96
17878.21
18633.45
1.46E-03
1207.459
2570853
33.74397
1.21E-06
0.7255727
a=507,5748
b=755,2449

januari
februari
maret
april
mei
juni
juli
agustus
september
oktober
nopember
desember

1000
3000
2500
4000
1500
4500
6000
8500
9000
10000
5500
9500

12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0

R-sqaure
1
0.271881
0.557094
0.653293
1
1
0.904162
0.558936
0.520308
0.512808
0.665878
0.725573
TOTAL

FR-LR
ABSOULTE
MR
-1525.64
1525.6397 1514.64
-1036.13
1036.1296 1025.13
-3046.62
3046.6196 3035.62
-3057.108
3057.1082 3046.108
-7067.598
7067.598 7056.598
-5578.088
5578.0879 5567.088
-5588.578
5588.5781 5577.578
-4599.068
4599.068 4588.068
-5609.558
5609.558 5598.558
-6120.046
6120.046 6109.046
-12130.54
12130.538 12119.54
-9641.028 9641.02767 9630.028
64868

UCL
LCL
Max
Min

MR/11
5897.091
15686.26
-15686.26
12119.54
1025.13

Column I

Error
-262.8197
981.9354
-273.3096
471.4458
-2783.799
-539.0439
205.7109
1950.466
1695.221
1939.977
-3315.269
-70.51367

error - 11
-273.8197
970.9354
-284.3096
460.4458
-2794.799
-550.0439
194.7109
1939.466
1684.221
1928.977
-3326.269
-81.51367
-131.9988

15686
14000

MR/11
-11.99989

12000

1939.466
-3326.269

10000

8000

6000

4000

3; 3035.6196 4; 3046.1082
2000

-15686

1; 1514.6397

2; 1025.1296

0
0

UCL

11; 12119.

5; 7056.598
10; 6109.046
9; 5598.558

6; 5567.0879 7; 5577.5781
8; 4588.068

3035.6196 4; 3046.1082

10

UCL

UCL

11; 12119.538

12; 9630.02767

Column P

10; 6109.046

UCL

12

14