[Table_MainInfo]

[Table_Title]

2011.08.22

021-38676710
jiangyingkun@gtjas.com

S0880511010023

logit HS300

HS300

15.00%

2011/7/22

2011/5/6

2011/6/17

2011/4/1

2011/5/27

2011/3/4

2011/1/28

2010/12/24

2010/11/19

2010/9/21

2010/8/20

2010/10/15

2010/7/30

0.6

0.4

0
2011/7/29

2011/6/17

2011/5/6

2011/3/25

2011/2/11

2010/12/31

2010/10/8

2010/8/27

2010/7/16

2010/6/4

2010/4/23

2010/3/12

2010/11/19

0.2
2010/1/22

0.025
0.02
0.015
0.01
0.005
0
-0.005
-0.01
-0.015
-0.02
-0.025

0.8

2009/12/11

HS300

1.2

2009/10/30

1.4

2009/8/7

2009/9/18

2009/7/3

2010/6/25

2010/4/16

-15.00%
2010/2/26

-10.00%
2010/1/22

logit

0.00%

-5.00%

2009/8/7

[Table_Summary]

5.00%

2009/12/4

0.7,0.3 69.57%

1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

10.00%

4 t t
t

10.6,0.4
0.6 0.4
73.68% 66.67%
0.7,0.3
69.57%

22

[Table_Report]

2011.07.11
300

2011.05.31

2011.05.26

2010.12.02

2010.07.21

1.

2.

............................................................................................................................................... 3
1.1.

........................................................................................................ 3

1.2.

............................................................................ 3

1.3.

........................................................................................ 4

1.4.

............................................................................................ 4

............................................................................................................................................................... 4
2.1.

................................................................................................................................................... 5

2.2.

....................................................................................................................................... 5

2.3.
3.

2.2.1.

.................................................................................................... 6

2.2.2.

............................................................................................................................ 7

2.2.3.

................................................................................................................................ 9

2.2.4.

logit .......................................................................................................... 9

....................................................................................... 11

................................................................................................................................................. 12
3.1.

..................................................................................................................................... 12

3.2.

..................................................................................................................................... 13

3.3.

................................................................................................................................. 14
3.3.1.

..................................................................................................................................... 14

3.3.2.

...................................................................................................... 14

2 of 18

1.
1.1.

1.2.

3 of 18

1.3.

1.4.

t
t
t t

2.

4 of 18

2.1.

HS300 50 1

50 logit 8 2
8 logit

2008 7

1
t-100

t-50

50 logit
8
1
50

08.7

09.7

50

t+8

8
logit
8

10.7

11.7

2.2.

Step1

Step2

5 of 18

Step3

Step4 step2
logit

Step5 logit

2.2.1.

2.2.1.1.

2
12000

3600

HS300( )

10000

3400

8000

3200

6000

3000

4000

2800

2000

2600

10

20

30

40

50

2400

50 HS300 2
50

6 of 18

50

2.2.1.2.

k
50

k = log
(50 k)

log
(i)
i=1

3
5.00%

4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%

0.00%
1 3 5 7 9 1113151719212325272931333537394143454749

2.2.2.

30% 30% 1%

7 of 18

4
4 4

2%5%

-0.1656

-4%-1%

0.0765

7%11%

0.1491

-15%-12%

-0.1764

-
2 08 7 11 7
HS300

4
45.00%
40.00%

15.00%
10.00%

35.00%
30.00%

5.00%

25.00%

0.00%

20.00%
15.00%

-5.00%

10.00%

-10.00%

5.00%

-15.00%
2009/7/3
2009/8/7
2009/9/11
2009/10/16
2009/11/20
2009/12/25
2010/1/29
2010/3/12
2010/4/16
2010/5/21
2010/6/25
2010/7/30
2010/9/3
2010/10/8
2010/11/12
2010/12/17
2011/1/21
2011/2/25
2011/4/1
2011/5/6
2011/6/10

0.00%

8 of 18

5
70.00%

60.00%

15.00%
10.00%

50.00%

5.00%

40.00%
0.00%
30.00%

-5.00%

20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

-15.00%

2009/7/3
2009/8/7
2009/9/11
2009/10/16
2009/11/20
2009/12/25
2010/1/29
2010/3/12
2010/4/16
2010/5/21
2010/6/25
2010/7/30
2010/9/3
2010/10/8
2010/11/12
2010/12/17
2011/1/21
2011/2/25
2011/4/1
2011/5/6
2011/6/10

10.00%

2.2.3.

_20101202
_20110525

2.2.4.

logit

9 of 18

2.2.4.1. logit

2.2.2 4 5
1 0
logit

09 7 10 7
50 08 7

50 2010 7 8
50 8

8 logit
logit 5
09 7 11 7 logit
2

logit
Logit

P-value

6.2915

0.1891

-1.2475

0.3952

3.0784

0.4591

4.8274

0.1073

-4.2688

0.5737

P-value

10 of 18

logit

2.2.4.2.

09 7 4 10 7 2 50 logit
8 8 logit
8 09 7 10 7
10 7 9
3

2.3.

HS300

0.6 120%

0.4 80%
20%

0.4-0.6
100%

2 2
1

2009 7 3
2011 8 10

11 of 18

3.
3.1.

0.6,0.4 0.6
0.4 0.6 0.4
73.68%
66.67%0.7,0.3
69.57%

0.6, 0.4

0.6, 0.4

0.7, 0.3

50

56

56

38

51

46

28

34

32

73.68%

66.67%

69.57%

09 7 4 10 7 2 10 7 9
11 8 10 0.6,0.4 logit
2 0.6
0.4

12 of 18


HS300

15.00%

1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

10.00%
5.00%
0.00%

-5.00%
-10.00%

2011/7/22

2011/6/17

2011/5/6

2011/5/27

2011/4/1

2011/3/4

2011/1/28

2010/12/24

2010/11/19

2010/10/15

2010/9/21

2010/8/20

2010/7/30

2010/6/25

2010/4/16

2010/2/26

2010/1/22

2009/12/4

2009/8/7

-15.00%

0.7 0.3 2010 7 2

7 0.3,0.7

15.00%

HS300

10.00%

5.00%
0.00%

-5.00%
-10.00%
-15.00%

1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

0.7 0.3 2010 7 2

3.2.

2 12.89%

13 of 18

54 2
11
1.81%

12.89%

54

11

1.81%

1.4

HS300

0.025
0.02
0.015
0.01
0.005
0
-0.005
-0.01
-0.015
-0.02
-0.025

1.2
1
0.8

0.6
0.4
0.2
2011/7/29

2011/5/6

2011/6/17

2011/3/25

2011/2/11

2010/12/31

2010/11/19

2010/10/8

2010/8/27

2010/7/16

2010/6/4

2010/4/23

2010/3/12

2010/1/22

2009/12/11

2009/10/30

2009/9/18

2009/8/7

2009/7/3

3.3.

3.3.1.

2011 8 19
Logit HS300
0.2177

3.3.2.

14 of 18

5 HS300
0.2177

-0.0498

0.0788

0.2299

-0.70878

-0.39482

0.004762

15 of 18

[Table_About]

S0880511010023
021-38676710
jiangyingkun@gtjas.com
CPA05
06
07-08 2010

S0880110090001
021-38674763
tangjun008739@gtjas.com
2010 7

16 of 18

1.

12
12

300
2.
12

300

300 15%

300 5%15%

300 -5%5%

300 5%

300

300

300

168
29

200120

02138676666
E-mailgtjaresearch@gtjas.com

6009
34
518026
075523976888

28
2 10
100140
01059312799

17 of 18

18 of 18