ANALYSIS OF RISK AND

RETURN OF STOCKS
AND A TWO STOCK
PORTFOLIO

INTRODUCTION TO BUSINESS
FINANCE

MCB & HBL

KSE -100

AAQIB NAZIMUDDIN
BILAL MEHDI
AHSAN AKBAR

40
55
40 0
57
40 8
60
40 6
63
40 4
66
40 2
69
40 0
71
40 8
74
40 6
77
40 4
80
40 2
83
40 0
85
40 7
88
40 6
91
40 4
94
40 2
97
40 0
99
41 8
02
41 6
05
41 4
08
41 2
11
41 0
13
7

SHARE PRICES

MCB- HBL

300

250

200

MCB

150
HBL

100

50

KSE-100 SHARE PRICES

FOR MCB & HBL

SHARE PRICES

DATESDATE

07-Jan-

MCB

HBL

225.99

124.9

KSE100
12389.

11
14-Jan11
21-Jan11
28-Jan11
04-Feb11
11-Feb11
18-Feb11
25-Feb11
04-Mar11
11-Mar11
18-Mar11
25-Mar11
01-Apr11
08-Apr11
15-Apr11
22-Apr11
29-Apr11
06-May11
13-May11
20-May11
27-May11
03-Jun11
10-Jun11
17-Jun11
24-Jun11
01-Jul-

04

11

243.35

126.7

DATE

230.32

123.8

233.43

123.8
2
124.3
7
122.1
5
123.1
6
116.7
4
129.1
4
127.8
4
108.3
3
105.5
9
117.2
5
122.7
3
125.1
6
124.7
5
122.0
6
121.0
4
121.1
2
118.8
7
120.7

12533.
54
12431.
91
12462.
7
12415.
35
11943.
34
12041.
15
11223.
52
12000.
03
12045.
25
11606.
61
11552.
13
11885.
64
11905.
87
11684.
23
11954.
37
12057.
54
11879.
96
11967.
35
11973.
38
12225.
52
12236.
66
12377.
77
12361.
32
12464.
26
12484.

08-Jul11
15-Jul11
22-Jul11
29-Jul11
05-Aug11
12-Aug11
19-Aug11
25-Aug11
30-Aug11
09-Sep11
16-Sep11
23-Sep11
30-Sep11
07-Oct11
14-Oct11
21-Oct11
28-Oct11
04-Nov11
10-Nov11
18-Nov11
25-Nov11
02-Dec11
09-Dec11
16-Dec-

229.83
207.65
215.38
200.08
216.48
225.2
216.23
195.66
208.53
207.99
202.07
204.28
207.05
202.72
204.8
207.79
210.57
200.2
205.64
203.35
203.8
198.41

116.9
5
120.1
117.5
8
117.2
2
116.0

17

MCB

HBL

201.82

117.3
6
117.3
3
121.9
8
120

KSE100
12390.
12
12346.
52
12476.
77
12190.
37
11375.
09
11262.
04
10879.
82
10901.
76
11070.
58
11286.
21
11353.
46
11606.
86
11761.
97
11853.
84
11988.
09
11525.
25
11561.
67
11957.
3
11969.
05
11937.
81
11648.
14
11372.
21
11464.
61
11028.

199.65
197.4
186.43
175.18
176.15
170.95
168.9
167.78
176.06
174.98
173.84
173.27
170.91
167.89
159.73
154.85
155.77
160.41
160.3
152.31
147.27
147.95
137.05

117.5
1
121.0
1
116.4
3
116.5
6
116.5
4
115.5
7
117.2
8
118.4
9
119.3
6
118.7
7
116.9
2
115.8
6
117.7
9
115.5
4
115.5
7
114.9
2
112.8
3
112.0
6
110.8
8
107.6

11
23-Dec11
30-Dec11
06-Jan12
13-Jan12
20-Jan12
27-Jan12
03-Feb12
10-Feb12
17-Feb12
24-Feb12
02-Mar12
09-Mar12
16-Mar12
22-Mar12
30-Mar12
06-Apr12
13-Apr12
20-Apr12
27-Apr12

14

139.83

107.8

134.6

106.0
8
108.2
2
106.1
5
110.4
9
114.8
2
116.0
2
121.8
8
118.9
4
122.5
6
120.4
9
118.8
1
103.8
9
100.7

11301.
09
11347.
66
11125.
35
11014.
46
11774.
68
11960.
22
11982.
62
12231.
6
12495.
68
12706.
52
13088.
97
13352.
74
13297.
12
13273.
29
13761.
76
13875.
53
13799.
43
13936.
48
14042.
77

144.8
148.06
159.8
167.46
181.45
183.02
187.25
179.1
178.63
183.68
163.81
163.09
175.44
173.8
174.9
171.42
174.54

111.3
7
111.8
3
110.1
1
108.8
1
113.4
2

04-May12
11-May12
18-May12
25-May12
01-Jun12
08-Jun12
15-Jun12
22-Jun12
29-Jun12
06-Jul12
13-Jul12
20-Jul12
27-Jul12
03-Aug12
10-Aug12
16-Aug12
24-Aug12
31-Aug12

180.48
173.98
169.99
171.33
167.49
158.96
160.88
161.75
166.24
179.49
178.09
188.03
188.21
184.61
185.31
180.07
178.4
186.39

116.5
4
111.2
5
109.0
8
112.4
1
106.1
8
103.9
107.2
9
107.5
4
112.8
4
114.4
5
112.6
1
115.0
3
113.7
5
116.5
3
117.8
7
114.8
6
116.7
3
114.9
8

14612.
28
14230.
49
13857.
78
13925.
06
13876.
97
13558.
7
13665.
8
13730.
82
13801.
41
14310.
18
14332.
29
14564.
49
14526.
41
14676.
43
14761.
49
15000.
08
15039.
18
15391.
58

As it is visible from the stock profile dating January 2011 to August 2012,
MCB has an upper hand on the stock prices as compared to HBL stock
prices. The volumes, of KSE 100 Index, as a result have also been higher
as compared to HBL volumes in the stock market. We can see that from
January 2011 to July 2011, the share prices for MCB range between 200
and 230 whereas for HBL, the share prices reach a maximum level of

127. Compared to the KSE 100 Index points, the trade that has taken
place for both the companies have been relatively lower but taking a
more in-depth analysis of the volumes traded for both the companies, it
goes to show that MCB has been more successful in doing business in the
stock market as compared to HBL. From July 2011 onwards, the share
prices for both the companies have steadily declined. This is due to the
prevailing political instability in the country. Even as a result of this
instability, MCB manages to keep its share prices comparatively higher
as compared to share prices from HBL.

WEEKLY RETURNS
WEEK
S
1
2

MCB

HBL

KSE-100

1.37%
2.29%
0.02%
0.44%

1.17%
-0.81%

4.03%

10

3.98%

11

9.51%
6.58%

1.78%
0.83%
5.21%
10.62
%
1.01%
15.26
%
2.53%
11.04
%
4.67%

-3.80%

7.68%
5.35%
1.35%
1.54%
9.65%
3.72%
7.10%
8.20%

1.98%

-1.86%

0.33%
2.16%
0.84%
0.07%
1.86%

2.31%

3
4
5
6
7

12
13

15

0.26%
2.85%
1.09%

16

1.36%

17

2.09%
1.03%
1.46%

14

18
19

0.25%
-0.38%

0.82%
-6.79%
6.92%
0.38%
-3.64%

-0.47%
2.89%
0.17%

0.86%
-1.47%
0.74%
0.05%

20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

1.34%
4.92%
2.72%
1.11%
0.22%
2.64%
1.72%
1.08%
1.13%
5.56%
6.03%
0.55%
2.95%
1.20%
0.66%
4.94%

1.54%
3.11%
2.69%
2.10%
0.31%
1.02%
1.15%
0.03%
3.96%

2.11%
0.09%

1.62%
2.08%
2.98%
3.78%
0.11%

-2.30%

0.02%
0.83%
1.48%

1.55%

1.15%
-0.13%
0.83%
0.16%
-0.75%
-0.35%
1.05%

-6.69%
-0.99%
-3.39%
0.20%

1.95%

0.60%
0.61%
37
1.03% 2.23%
0.65%
38
0.73% 1.34%
0.33%
39
0.78%
1.36% 0.49%
40
1.13%
1.77% 1.56%
41
-3.86%
4.86% 0.91%
42
1.67% 0.32%
3.06%
43
0.59% - RETURNS
3.42%
WEEKLY
1.91%
WEEK MCB
HBL
KSE-100
S
44
2.98% 0.03% 0.10%
45
-0.26%
0.07% 0.56%
46
-2.43%

47
48
49

4.98%
3.31%
0.46%

52
53

7.37%
2.03%
3.74%
7.58%
2.25%

54
55
56
57
58

7.93%
4.79%
8.35%
0.87%
2.31%

59

4.35%
0.26%
2.83%

50
51

60
61
62

63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74

10.82
%
0.44%
7.57%
0.93%
0.63%
1.99%
1.82%
3.40%
3.60%
2.29%
0.79%
2.24%
5.09%

1.82%
0.68%
1.05%
2.90%
0.13%
1.60%
2.02%
1.91%
4.09%
3.92%
1.05%
5.05%
2.41%
3.04%

-2.37%
0.81%
-3.81%
2.48%
0.41%
-1.96%
-1.00%
6.90%
1.58%
0.19%
2.08%
2.16%
1.69%

1.69%
1.39%
12.56
%
3.07%
10.60
%
0.41%

3.01%

1.54%
1.18%
4.24%
2.75%
4.54%
1.95%
3.05%
5.54%
2.15%

-0.55%

2.02%
-0.42%

-0.18%
3.68%
0.83%

0.99%
0.76%
4.06%
-2.61%
-2.62%
0.49%
-0.35%
-2.29%

75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86

1.21%
0.54%
2.78%
7.97%
0.78%
5.58%
0.10%
1.91%
0.38%
2.83%
0.93%
4.48%

3.26%
0.23%
4.93%
1.43%
1.61%
2.15%
1.11%
2.44%

0.79%
0.48%
0.51%
3.69%
0.15%

1.15%
2.55%
1.63%

0.58%
1.62%

1.50%

2.34%

1.62%
-0.26%
1.03%

0.26%