KEY ASSEMBLY RACES

Assume 20 safe D seats, 14 safe R seats. Republican Leans (would take the total to 20 D, 16 R):
AD 4 Fiore (2014 race v. Hinton; 2012 v. Evans) Piro v. McArthur
Diff.

D
12,951
11,354

D%
38.99
42.35

R
12,417
14,239

R%
37.38
53.11

Difference
534
(2,885)

12,352
5,483

37.70
37.62

12,165
9,090

37.13
62.38

187
(3,607)

12,683
12,062

37.54
36.94

12,496
12,286

36.98
37.63

187
(224)

0
(411)

0.56
(0.69)

AD4 1/16

12,306

37.05

12,540

37.75

(234)

(10)/(421)

(0.70)

AD4 2/16

12,711

37.32

12,999

38.16

(288)

(54)/(475)

(0.84)

AD4
AD4
AD4
AD4
AD4

3/16
4/16
5/16
6/16
7/16

13,149
13,429
13,587
13,900
14,115

37.88
37.92
37.91
37.88
37.66

13,144
13,340
13,456
13,710
13,950

37.86
37.66
37.54
37.36
37.22

5
89
131
190
165

293/(182)
84/(98)
42/(56)
59/3
(25)/(22)

0.02
0.26
0.37
0.52
0.44

AD4 8/16
AD4 9/16

13,866
14,372

37.74
37.45

13,659
14,166

37.17
36.92

207
206

42/20
(1)/19

0.57
0.53

AD4 10/12
12
Results
AD4 10/14
14
Results
AD4 1/15
AD4 12/15

% Diff
1.61
(10.76)

% Diff.

0.57
(24.76)
(0.01)
(1.25)/
(1.26)
(0.01)/
(1.27)
(0.14)/
(1.41)
0.86/(0.55)
0.24/(0.31)
0.11/(0.20)
0.15/(0.05)
(0.08)/
(0.13)
0.13/0.00
(0.04)/
(0.04)

AD 37 Trowbridge (2014 race Duncan v. Mackin; 2012

D
D%
R
AD37
14,399
39.80
14,102
10/12
12
14,296
48.85
14,969
Results
AD37
13,126
38.13
13,423
10/14
14
6,362
35.97
10,855
Results
AD37 1/15
13,373
37.97
13,666
AD37
12,598
37.33
13,269
12/15
AD37 1/16
12,781
37.38
13,464
AD37 2/16
13,125
37.65
13,819
AD37 3/16
13,508
38.19
13,920
AD37 4/16
13,744
38.25
14,027
AD37 5/16
13,879
38.25
14,110
AD37 6/16
14,126
38.22
14,302
AD37 7/16
14,334
38.24
14,393
AD37 8/16
14,028
38.24
14,071
AD37 9/16
14,469
38.12
14,367

Duncan v. Conklin) Lyttle v. Marchant

R%
Difference
Diff.
38.98
297

% Diff
0.82

51.15

(673)

(2.30)

38.99

(297)

(0.86)

61.37

(4,493)

(25.40)

38.80
39.32

(293)
(671)

4
(378)/(374)

(0.83)
(1.99)

39.37
39.64
39.35
39.04
38.89
38.70
38.40
38.36
37.85

(683)
(694)
(412)
(283)
(231)
(176)
(59)
(33)
102

(12)/(386)
(11)/(397)
282/(115)
129/14
52/66
55/121
117/238
26/264
135/399

(1.99)
(1.99)
(1.16)
(0.79)
(0.64)
(0.48)
(0.16)
(0.12)
0.27

% Diff.

0.03
(1.16)/
(1.13)
0/(1.13)
0/(1.13)
0.83/(0.30)
0.37/0.07
0.15/0.22
0.16/0.38
0.32/0.70
0.04/0.74
0.39/1.13

Contested Seats (Republicans must take all leans and all of these seats to retain control; all six were held by the
Ds in 2012 and the Rs in 2014):
AD 5 Nelson (2014 race v. Strasser; 2012 Dondero Loop v. Harrington) Miller v. Ham
AD5 10/12
12
Results
AD5 10/14
14
Results
AD5 1/15
AD5 12/15

D
12,873
12,200

D%
41.86
51.31

R
10,882
10,705

R%
35.38
45.02

Difference
1,991
1,495

11,584
5,304

40.84
43.15

9,868
6,988

34.79
56.85

1,716
(1,684)

11,879
11,005

40.93
40.34

10,017
9,591

34.51
35.15

1,862
1,414

Diff.

% Diff
6.48
6.29

% Diff.

6.05
(13.70)
146
(448)/(302)

6.42
5.19

0.37
(1.23)/
(0.86)

AD5 1/16
AD5 2/16
AD5 3/16
AD5 4/16
AD5 5/16
AD5 6/16
AD5 7/16
AD5 8/16
AD5 9/16
AD 9 Gardner
AD9 10/12
12
Results
AD9 10/14
14
Results
AD9 1/15
AD9 12/15
AD9
AD9
AD9
AD9
AD9
AD9
AD9
AD9
AD9

1/16
2/16
3/16
4/16
5/16
6/16
7/16
8/16
9/16

11,181
40.44
9,726
35.18
1,455
11,585
40.93
10,017
35.39
1,568
11,987
41.64
10,096
35.07
1,891
12,273
41.75
10,203
34.71
2,070
12,399
41.68
10,289
34.58
2,110
12,644
41.60
10,442
34.36
2,202
12,787
41.34
10,574
34.18
2,213
12,607
41.41
10,309
33.86
2,298
13,071
41.18
10,628
33.49
2,443
(2014 race v. Yeager; 2012 Martin v. Hurst) Yeager v. Gardner
D
D%
R
R%
Difference
11,623
42.00
8,889
32.12
2,734
11,276
53.17
9,930
46.83
1,346

41/(261)
113/(148)
323/175
179/354
40/394
92/486
11/497
85/582
145/727

5.26
5.54
6.57
7.04
7.10
7.24
7.16
7.55
7.69

0.07/(0.79)
0.28/(0.51)
1.03/0.52
0.47/0.99
0.06/1.05
0.14/1.19
(0.08)/1.11
0.39/1.50
0.14/1.64

Diff.

% Diff
9.88
6.34

% Diff.
27,672

10,808
5,176

39.82
47.90

8,885
5,630

32.74
52.10

1,923
(454)

11,157
10,522

39.69
39.21

9,198
8,906

32.72
33.19

1,959
1,616

36
(343)/(307)

6.97
6.02

10,805
11,319
11,851
12,167
12,351
12,728
13,024
12,921
13,630

39.30
39.83
40.62
40.62
40.58
40.62
40.43
40.53
40.33

9,148
9,566
9,724
9,883
10,004
10,254
10,449
10,219
10,658

33.27
33.66
33.33
32.99
32.87
32.73
32.44
32.05
31.53

1,657
1,753
2,127
2,284
2,347
2,474
2,575
2,702
2,972

41/(266)
96/(170)
374/204
157/361
63/424
127/551
101/652
127/779
270/1,049

6.03
6.17
7.29
7.63
7.71
7.89
7.99
8.48
8.80

Diff.

% Diff
7.73

AD 21 Armstrong (2014 race v. Eisen; 2012 Eisen v. Harris) Fumo v. Armstrong

D
D%
R
R%
Difference
AD21
12,692
41.52
10,330
33.79
2,362
10/12
12
12,123
50.07
11,343
46.85
780
Results
AD21
11,673
40.53
9,691
33.65
1,982

7.08
(4.20)

3.22
6.88

(0.11)
(0.95)/
(1.06)
0.01/(1.05)
0.14/(0.91)
1.12/0.21
0.34/0.55
0.08/0.63
0.18/0.81
0.10/0.91
0.49/1.40
0.32/1.72

% Diff.

10/14
14
Results
AD21 1/15
AD21
12/15
AD21 1/16
AD21 2/16
AD21 3/16
AD21 4/16
AD21 5/16
AD21 6/16
AD21 7/16
AD21 8/16
AD21 9/16

5,582

46.47

6,033

50.22

(451)

(3.75)

11,920
11,040

40.46
39.98

9,864
9,382

33.48
33.98

2,056
1,658

74
(398)/(324)

6.98
6.00

11,249
11,621
12,062
12,270
12,374
12,594
12,779
12,473
12,826

40.15
40.61
41.34
41.28
41.16
41.02
40.91
40.75
40.38

9,542
9,856
9,948
10,060
10,137
10,304
10,423
10,201
10,496

34.06
34.44
34.09
33.85
33.72
33.56
33.36
33.32
33.04

1,707
1,765
2,114
2,210
2,237
2,290
2,356
2,272
2,330

49/(275)
58/(217)
349/132
96/228
27/255
53/308
66/374
(84)/290
58/348

6.09
6.17
7.25
7.43
7.44
7.46
7.55
7.43
7.34

AD 29 Silberkraus (2014 race v. Cohen; 2012 Mastroluca v. Irwin) Cohen v. Silberkraus

D
D%
R
R%
Difference
Diff.
AD29
13,510
39.73
12,397
36.46
1,113
10/12
12
13,418
50.66
12,126
45.78
1,292
Results
AD29
12,360
38.29
11,586
35.89
774
10/14
14
6,171
45.23
7,474
54.77
(1,303)
Results
AD29 1/15
12,612
38.15
11,843
35.82
769
(5)
AD29
11,918
38.06
11,288
36.05
630
(139)/(144)
12/15
AD29 1/16
12,139
38.18
11,474
36.09
665
35/(109)
AD29 2/16
12,571
38.64
11,837
36.38
734
69/(40)
AD29 3/16
13,044
39.31
11,983
36.11
1,061
327/287
AD29 4/16
13,285
39.28
12,128
35.86
1,157
96/383
AD29 5/16
13,427
39.19
12,246
35.75
1,181
24/407
AD29 6/16
13,668
39.12
12,447
35.63
1,221
40/447
AD29 7/16
13,878
38.97
12,620
35.44
1,258
37/484
AD29 8/16
13,639
39.00
12,299
35.17
1,340
82/566

% Diff
3.27

0.10
(0.98)/
(0.88)
0.09/(0.79)
0.08/(0.71)
1.08/0.37
0.18/0.55
0.01/0.56
0.02/0.58
0.09/0.67
(0.12)/0.55
(0.09)/0.46

% Diff.

4.88
2.40
(9.54)
2.33
2.01
2.09
2.26
3.20
3.42
3.44
3.49
3.53
3.83

(0.07)
(0.32)/
(0.39)
0.08/(0.31)
0.17/(0.14)
0.94/0.80
0.22/1.02
0.02/1.04
0.05/1.09
0.04/1.13
0.30/1.43

AD29 9/16

14,057

38.74

AD 35 Jones (2014 race v. Healey; 2012

D
D%
AD35
11,091
39.51
10/12
12
11,507
52.42
Results
AD35
11,313
37.99
10/14
14
5,332
46.74
Results
AD35 1/15
11,711
37.91
AD35
11,444
37.67
12/15
AD35 1/16
11,707
37.74

12,647

34.85

1,410

Healey v. Blanchard) Watkins v. Jones

R
R%
Difference
9,312
33.17
1,779

70/636

3.89

0.06/1.49

Diff.

% Diff
6.34

% Diff.

10,466

47.58

1,061

4.84

9,847

33.07

1,466

4.92

6,077

53.26

(745)

(6.52)

10,184
10,068

32.97
33.14

1,527
1,376

61
(151)/(90)

4.94
4.53

10,350

33.37

1,357

(19)/(109)

4.37

AD35 2/16

12,215

38.12

10,847

33.85

1,368

11/(98)

4.27

AD35
AD35
AD35
AD35
AD35
AD35
AD35

12,784
13,138
13,372
13,695
14,036
13,816
14,457

38.92
38.99
38.99
38.94
38.89
39.03
38.83

11,040
11,220
11,381
11,624
11,854
11,546
11,970

33.61
33.30
33.19
33.05
32.84
32.62
32.15

1,744
1,918
1,991
2,071
2,182
2,270
2,487

376/278
174/452
73/525
80/605
111/716
88/804
217/1,021

5.31
5.69
5.80
5.89
6.05
6.41
6.68

Diff.

% Diff
7.47

3/16
4/16
5/16
6/16
7/16
8/16
9/16

AD 41 Dooling (2014 race v. Aizley; 2012 Aizley v. Regeski) Jauregui v. Phillips

D
D%
R
R%
Difference
AD41
11,584
41.18
9,483
33.71
2,101
10/12
12
11,680
54.19
9,872
45.81
1,808
Results
AD41
11,152
40.12
9,234
33.22
1,918
10/14
14
4,632
44.28
5,829
55.72
(1,197)

8.38
6.90
(11.44)

0.02
(0.41)/
(0.39)
(0.16)/
(0.55)
(0.10)/
(0.65)
1.04/0.39
0.38/0.77
0.11/0.88
0.09/0.97
0.16/1.13
0.36/1.49
0.27/1.76

% Diff.

Results
AD41 1/15
AD41
12/15
AD41 1/16
AD41
AD41
AD41
AD41
AD41
AD41
AD41
AD41

2/16
3/16
4/16
5/16
6/16
7/16
8/16
9/16

11,478
10,824

40.10
39.47

9,477
9,190

33.11
33.51

2,001
1,634

83
(367)/(284)

6.99
5.96

11,038

39.49

9,413

33.67

1,625

(9)/(293)

5.82

11,502
12,026
12,339
12,513
12,872
13,141
12,930
13,469

39.94
40.78
40.80
40.70
40.78
40.64
40.69
40.44

9,789
9,897
10,065
10,187
10,374
10,515
10,323
10,696

33.99
33.56
33.28
33.13
32.86
32.52
32.48
32.11

1,713
2,129
2,274
2,326
2,498
2,626
2,607
2,773

88/(205)
416/211
145/356
52/408
172/580
128/708
(19)/689
166/855

5.95
7.22
7.52
7.57
7.92
8.12
8.21
8.33

0.09
(1.03)/
(0.94)
(0.14)/
(1.08)
0.13/(0.95)
1.27/0.32
0.30/0.62
0.05/0.67
0.35/1.02
0.20/1.22
0.09/1.31
0.12/1.43