CSE-883 Problem Set 1, Summer 2016

Submitted By: Danial Naeem

Problem 1. (10 pts.) Poker hands.
Answer:
a.

A two pair would look like AABBC. The probability of that happening would be:

1.

Choosing ranks of 2 pairs: 13C2 (13 different ranks, choosing two)

2.

Choosing two cards from each of the chosen rank: 4C2 * 4C2 (4 cards of same rank, need
2 same ranked cards for each pair)

3.

The last card: 11C1 * 4C1 (11 remaining ranks)

4.

Total number of combinations of all hands: 52C5

Hence, the probability of two-pair:

P = (13C2 * 4C2 * 4C2 * 11C1 * 4C1)/ 52C5 = 0.4225
b.

A three-of-a-kind looks like AAABC. The probability of which is

1.

Choosing a card out of 13 ranks : 13C1

2.

Choosing the same ranked card two more times: 4C3

3.

Choosing card 3 and 4: 12C2

4.

Choosing different cards for the given ranks for card 3 and 4: 4C1 * 4C1

Hence, the probability of three-of-a-kind:

P = 13C1 * 4C3 * 12C2 * 4C1 * 4C1 = 0.0211
Clearly, the two pair is more likely

Problem 2. (10 pts.) Boy or girl paradox.

a.

There are four possible scenarios.

Elder child

Younger child

Girl

Girl

Girl

Boy

Boy

Girl

Boy

Boy

For the given condition, only two of the above events meet the given criteria i.e. the older
child being a girl. So the modified (given the constraints) sample space is: (GG, GB).
Hence the probability of both children being girls, i.e. GG is 0.5
b.

Again, there are four possible scenarios.

Child 1

Child 2

Girl

Girl

Girl

Boy

Boy

Girl

Boy

Boy

Given the conditions, the possibility of GG is omitted, Leaving the remaining sample space
to be (GB,BG,BB) that fulfills the given condition i.e. one child being a boy.
Hence the possibility of both childs being boys BB is 1/3 (0.33).
Problem 3. (10 pts.) The blue taxi.
There is 1% chance that the car that hit and run was blue, and 99% chance that it was
green. But the forensic tests suggest that if the car was blue, there are 1% chances that
the witness would identify it to be green.
Hence, the chances of the car being blue, but being mistaken as green are 1% of 1% =
0.01%. And of being blue and being identified blue are 0.99%.
Similarly, the car being green but misidentified as blue are 2% of 99% or 0.198 %.
And being green and correctly identified as green are 97.02 %.
The witness identified the car as BLUE. And the probability of misidentification is
0.198%. The probability of correct identification is 0.99%. Adding theses gives
1.188% of all possible cases.
Sample space: 1.188 is to be 100%
So, the chance that the car is correctly identified to be blue: 0.99 * 100%/1.88 =
83.33%
The chance of being misidentified to be blue: 0.198 * 100% / 1.188 = 16.67 %
Hence there is significant doubt that the witness misidentified the car.