Speculations Concerning the Uleraintelligent Machine” IRVING JOHN GOOD, 4. Introduction ‘The survival of man doponds on the carly construction ofan ult Intligent machine Imvorler to design an wltaintaligent machine we need to understand ‘ore about the human brain or buman thought or bot. Ta the follow ing poser an attempt is made to tale more of the magi ot af the boty Loy means ofa “subassembly” theory, whieh ik modification cf ett famons speculative cell-asembly theory. My bie fs that the fect whreintalizent machine is mest Ukely to incorporate vast artifeel neural cicuitzy, and that ie bohavior willbe partly expioae in tesnes of tho subassembly thoory- Later machines wil all designed by alte "nc JOHN coo Jnteligent machine, and who a Ito aca what pencils thy wi devia But prot Man wil ata he daws eres mae bodiment ian ltainttigat ection Eves ene ee nel sreue th pips omfotinen of teuing neat hans eee a tem of eoomy tas ho methyl eure ee conus i port In any neeeng enka ie ees when the price is exceedingly high, me nf $e 0 eam from experienc, by mean af ponte al Inforcomen, andthe istruetin atthe mache wil eae a te hla Heng wil be mata ifthe tastrutor noms seen ee ‘emantcs, but not sesealy more trl than fo he nae hl. Bh const hie ofthe pram aloe af dagen loophy, will depend on th nal sletife need ot sich atcan eu hee, anaes ane te al hein tec ee Sree cndeniee n Ses tnd eh i cmt elite nase Scoing ie cane nnd Eitla lam dT cer tema ara o Sls det naa athe ty erm oa mn rab in Fei ey sma eh onus et ena e | {THE ARST ULTRAINTELLGENT HACE ‘The dificuty of estimating probabilities ssouneimes overlooked in the toraénze of arti inteligence, but thie artile would be too long if ‘the subjeet wer surveyed here. separate monograph has bn writen on this subject (4. Sonne of the ideas of Sotion 6 are adaptad, fn Sostion 6, to the prob- ‘em of rozll, which is disenssed and to some extent explained In owe of tho subassembly theory. ‘The paper concludes with some bei evggestions concerning the hyaleal representation of aeaning.” ‘This paper will, as we sad, be speculative: no blueprint willbe "Suggested forthe construction of an atrnateligent mashing, and there ill be no refermoo to transisitrs, dds, and eryogenia, (Notn, hhowover, that exyogenice have the’ important, marl of low powes consumption, This feature will bo valuable in an llratstligoent ‘achine.) One of our aims isto pinpint some of tho diftcltca the machine wil notte an the davsng board until many people bave talked big, end otters have built small, conouivably wang demryritonadste ‘cd (DNA), ‘Throughout the paper there arw suggestions for new research, Some {ortho summarizing remarks ave to be found inthe Conchaions 2 Ulerainteltigent Machines and Their Value Let an atesintelligent machine be defied ag 4 machive that can far ‘orpaas all tho intellectual activities of any man however clever, Sires ‘tho design of machines is one of these intelletaalactvitie, a uli, ‘nteligent machine could design even better tnachines, then would ten unquestionably be an “intligenos explosion,” andthe inl fence of man would be lft far behind (ace for exatple rts (22), (34), (44), Thus ta frat wltraintligont machine i the lat invention they, ‘man need ever make, provided that the machine s docile enough to tell 1 how to keep it under contol I i ouions that this point sma seldom outside of science fiction. Te fs sometimes worthwhile to take ‘iene fiction seriou. In one tiene fiction story « machine refused to design» better ono sinoo it didnot with to be put out ofa job. This would not be an ie soperabie diffcuty, oven if machines ean be egotistical since the ing new equipment, 'B. V. Bowden stated on British television (Angust 1962) that shor a xno pointin building & machine with the inteligonoe of mas sine te ‘tar to construct human brain by the nsul method. A stailas point ‘was mado by a speaker during the meotingsrporte! in a recent TEER. 2Publication (1), but T do not know whether this point apposrod in the ‘Publihe report. This shows chat highly intalligent people can overioce the “ntlligenee explosion” Tis tae that i would be nseortonieal vo build © machine capable only of ordinary intellectual attainments, bet 58 seme fairly probable thal i this could be done then, at double the ‘ost, the machine could exhibit ultraintalgdnen ‘Since we are conoermed with Ube eeononieal construction ofan ultra {nteligent machine it is neoesary to consider fret what such a machine ‘ould be worth. Cartes [17 estimated the val, tothe world, of J. M Keynes, as af last 100,000 millon pounds sterling. By defaiion, on ultrainteligent machine is woeth Sar mor, although the sign i's fertan, but sioo it wil give the human roe a good chance of surviving indefinitely, it might not bo extravagant to pot the value at = megs keynes, ‘There is the oppesite poasiilty, that the hums race i Deoome redundant, and there ace other ethleal problems, auch whether » machine could fel pain especially if it containa chemical tf nourons, and whether aa allzantaligent machive should Be mantled when it becomes obcolato [43,84]. The machines wil exeate Social problems, but they might alo beable to slve them in alton to those that have been created hy meres and men. Such mnaches wil be feared and respected, and perhaps even loved. The tema ight apposrfancifl to some readers, but the witer they sera very ‘eal and urgent, and worthy of emphasis outside of ecko Retion. LE wo oould raise say 2 iundrod billion dllars we might be able to ‘imate al the neurons oft brain, and ofa hole wan, 4 coe of tan Aollars por artical neuron. But it sera wnlkely that moc Was sy millkeynes would actly be forthcoming, an even this aount might ‘be diffcalt to obtain without fst building the inachine Tt would be ‘esified if with thi expenditure, the chance of success were bout 10° oti on utraintelligent machine ie bult pechap tho bet intellect {eats wil be performed by men and machines in very lene, nomelinee called “symbiotie," relationship, although the term “biomechanical” ‘would be more appropriate. An M. H.-A, Newman said ina vioate ommaniation in 1940, an elctrone computer might be uel ts“rough, paper” by a mathomatican. It could already be used in this mann be ‘Achoas player quite effetiveiy, although the efeetivenees wot be much, ‘ncreasod ifthe ches-playing programa were written with extremely, lose man-machine interaction in mind from the start. The season fey this effectiveness is that the machine hse the advancage in speed sat ‘scouracy for routine esiclation, and men has the advantage In in, agication. Moreover, largo part of imagination in these ean be Teduoed to routine. Many ofthe ideas that roquire imagination tn the ‘ametour ao rovtine for the master. Consoquently the machine sight » ‘THE MIST ULTRANTELUGENT MACHINE [pPeAF imaginative to many obserrer and even to the programmer, ‘Similar comments apply to other thought proceue, The justieation for chess playing programs in that they ched Tight ‘28 the problem of ariel intligeon without Being tao dificult to Write. Their intrest would he inreaced if chess were replaced by so aled “randomized ches,” in which the positions of the white Lees ‘on tho first rank are permatod at randona before the gate begins (bat with the two bishops on squares of opposite solo), and then the {nil postions of the black pieces aro determined hy miner spmimete ‘This gives rie to 1440 essentially distinct nil postions and euctivey ‘emovee from the gna the effect of mere parrot leaming of the open, ‘ngs, while not changing any of the general principlea of shen, Ia oh inary chew the machine’ would sometimes best an inueratonnl Grandmaster merely by means of » stoned opening trap, ta this ‘ould bo a hollow vietory. Furthermore a program: for randomised ‘hear woald hare the advantage tht i would not bo necomnry taser ‘great number of opening variations on magnetie aye ‘The feats performed hy very close man-mechine interaction by say 1960 are Hicely to encourage the douton of latge grants for eth Alevelopment. By that time, thee will have been great advanoes iv ‘nlcrominiatarisation, and pulse repetition frequencies of ne tilion lowe per eccond will surely have been atlained in Inege somputons {for example se Shoulders(97), On tho other had, th eecbral torre ‘4 man hao about fv ilion neurons, enoh with bobweem about trenty ‘nd eighty dendrites (0), pp. 86 and 6}, and thousands of eyranony (At ho recent IEEE mootingy, P. Muller offered the etinate 300,000 orally. Tt would be very interesting to know the corresponding Rew forthe brain of © whale, which, according to Tower [0 fre abock ‘hee times as many nenrons ne human hain, Pechape some wbsls ‘ar ltzaintligent! [49]} Moreover, the brain ie a parallworking device to an extent out of all proportion to any existing computes Although computers are likely to attain a pulse repetition specs ‘antage of say a million over the brain, it sooms fan probable, oa ‘he baci ofthis quantitative argument, that an ldrintlligent machine will ned tobe altraparale, In order to achiave the raquisite degree of ulteparalel working it ‘might be wag for many ofthe daments ofthe machine o contain ry shericonge microminiatre radio transmiter and recier. "The Mange ‘shonld be small compared with the dimensions of the whole mache ‘A “oounection” between two clove artifill neurone could be nde their transmitter and reecivor on the ane or close feuenee ‘he sireneth of the eonneeton could be nopresented hy the sectsany ‘of the tuning. The receivers would need rmerous fen so me fo be 3|nVING JOAN Goo <1psb of eivng on many diferent equals “oxen ment” would correspond to improved ‘ ver Whether machine of clasieal or ultesparalel drag isto bo the first ltrntligent machine, twill need tobe able ta asde a ee rns {handle ordinary language with reat facility. The wil Be toporeny rather than to formal lope, are an essential ingredient of soca imagination. Also the machino will be ealed upon te tranelte and perhaps to gnerat fie prove and poctry at high seats ahar ‘all in all, nguisisfacity i at high frente, ‘A man cannot learn more than ten milion statements in Heine or the above resson, it will be equumod here that the fe aie, intoigent anchine wil ‘be ultrapure, pethage hy kg we ne radio, as sugested. Hor deiitenese, the machine wil be nanny co instalation of se eopeciy but of comparatively soe era ‘See woedd ald little to the total eost.. ae ae sully hat felty in tho an of language willbe pie i stn quetion ae ignened inthe design Wea ve ae } THE FIRST ULTAARTELICENT MACHINE ¥stened to some exposition we wornetimes remember for along tine what it meant, but seldom how it was worded. It wll be argued below that, for men, meaning serves a funetion of eonny in long-term retention tnd in information handling, and this ie the basi for our contention that semantics aro relevant fo the design of an ulraintalignt machine, Singe language isan example of eonnmuiation, an soe at tne intelgent machine will bo largely «complicated communioaion spel, echall brefy consider the nature of eommnitin. twill be argued thot in communication «process of “generalized rogenertion” alway ocurs, and that serveea funtion of economy. It wlll be nrguc hot the meanings of statements aro examplen of generalized regeneration, 3. Communication as Regeneration! In a communication system, » sours, uaaally 4 tine sores denoted hero by Std) of for short, undergoan & sequence of transformations ‘heft transformation is often a deterministic encofing, which trate: forme the source into 8 now time sores, 7S), This ie nally deter minittcaly) transmitted, Ley, it undergoes a transformation 7, which ‘is «random member of some elas of transformations, Ifthe poste Ssourees ae, i some sense, far enough apart andi te noe la not too ‘rat, then the waveforms 78 wil, also in vomo enae, tend to form ‘amps, and it willbe posble with high probability to reconsteact the {coded souroes a the reosiving end of the handel, This reconstruction is alld here (generalind) regeneration, a term tte is mot fail ‘onnestion with the reshaping of square pulses, When dealing with groupe of consecutive pula, the term error correction is more tal, ‘specially when ite assumed thatthe individual pulses have themes been frst nenenated. Another way of exying that tho souree signals out be far enough apart iat say that they niust have enon redun ‘ancy. I «complicated network ee often tonvenient to regard sgt 4s eourees at numerous places in the network and not merely a the input tothe network. Tho redundaney might then he represented, for ‘example, by mere torial er parallel repetition, ‘A sompromive hetmeen pure regeneration aud the use of the whole garbled waveform 1,7, probabilistic regeneration, in whieh the {garbled waveform ie replaced by the set of probahiliies tha has arisen {rom various souroes [42] In probabilistic regeneration lees information is thrown eway than in pure rogeneratin, and the later data-harw casts moro, but les than it would wort there wore no regeneration all, ‘Tho hierarchical use of probabilistic regeneration would add much flexibility to compliented communication networks, tnt srw th atte famine, sw fr expe Pie 6: ”|MVING JON GOOD An example of goneralize and hierarchical regeneration isin the se cof words in a language. A word in a spoken language coud well be defined as clump of short time serie, that ia, 4 clas ef time series |having vacious properties in commas, (The els depends on the opuakes, ‘the listener, and the contoxt; and members of the lacs spook fn snoe there are marginal eaea) If any sound (aconatie tine arog) belonging to the clamp is heard, then the listener mentally regenerates {he sound and repaoes it hy some representation of the word, He wil {ent to remember, orto write down, the werd aud not its pews sound, sshough if ny other significant property of the wind ie noticed i might alo be semembered. Tho advantage of remembering the word “athor than the procis sound i that there then les to nema od smaller amount of information handling to do ‘This proces of regeneration ooours to rome extent at each of the levels of phonemes, words, sentences, and lngor linguist stl ‘nd even at the semantic level, and wherever it oscur it sorven a fanction of economy. But the economy is not patsimonious: “rea ancy” often remains in tho coding in order that the eaaadedmeaeagy shosld continue to havo useful error cotrecting features, Tho ed ancy often dereases withthe pasage of time, perhaps ending even ally to the extinction of a momory. ‘That communication theory bus a Bearing on the philosophy of ‘meaning has been suggested efare (a for example, Weaver 15), pp. 114-117, and Lord Brain (8). Note also the: deiaion of the ‘mount of subjective information ina proposition, as ~ loge p where ? is the initial subjective probabity that tho proposition i tre (21), . 70), "This oould also be described as oubjecive emantie informatio ‘whon the probabiites are credibiites(ogeal probabilities) we bal ‘what might be called objective semanti infartation [, 10), the exist, noe of which i, in my opinion, slightly more controversial, The mu. Jetive probability is just as base as communication theory to pote Jome af meaning and recognition, inet mone a, sa necessary tenet for ‘ny of us who deine reasoning ag logi ps probability (27), pp. 3 and £35; soo alto Colin Cherry [12 pp. 200 and 274, Woodward (105), and ‘Tompkins (0). The implication is that both tho inital (peor) proba Dilties and the likelihoods or “eights of evidence” [27] shoul bo {taken into account in every practical infence by w rational man, at in fut nearly always ao taken into aacount to some extent, at lout implicitly, even hy actual men, {In caee tie thsi should sppeas ag ‘obvious to some readers asit does to th writer, it aboald be mentioned ‘hat in 1960 very few statisticians appeared to accept the these, nnd ‘even now thay are in a minority.) There x conclusive eapesimental {rience that the recognition of words depends on the initial proba 2 i THE RST ULTAAINTELUGENT MACHINE ‘tee (0) « wellknown method af deeepton when fying to sell a spovah-aynthss astm stot he stent In avant in wil be ‘id ont aud thereby to make itealy inteligle when iejeara ‘hore is sina fet inthe pereption of een 2) ‘The rational premarin preption would be to etimate the Sal (4 poston) prtabiles ty meant of Bayes theron aot teat ‘haps to moot one or more hype fer fasere suacion at Action, by allowing aloo fr the ules, (Compare rot 24 18), 20, ad Midleton (58) Tn fact he “pena uf atoning’ he bs dete asthe recommendation to makimiee expected eli Bator ‘ncesry to allow aio for the expected cout of information ein ‘clang thorung (23,40), this in why sogumcons rag okt Ul regneraton re ut ‘We panto oat above that te orptizaion of regeneration soften erarchicl, bt ile not purely an For example ten deny te regeneration of a phoneme nl the werd to Wich he shee telongs ha bon rgenarsted with the help ofthe ponding wee ikewise iF machine i o bathe o "undertan” tings pees Jneguage in any seaeonabl ee, ome eta that sepoet, deg regeneration srutare me tbe pusely hrarhiol sales sth probahote Fo each procs of nnghtone or pus peraton {ete etait “docion”) las tnformation, and ts taal Ts oad Certainly too great ane the speech wore enue with page ‘teuruey. Tho probabil rogenerationstraceare that wil beeen ‘il bo inuch more complex than “pur” regeneration eaten {istrial note: the hierarchical structure of ental pease es mphtsied by Gall (27), MeDougll 0), to many iss snse—toe “orexamplo MacKay fl, Hayek (3), and others (30), 34) 1) lh) “eacems easmnable ote fesnt rer tat probeiindeceenecy, tion wil for most purpose oly smal nt stoners, fd that, rather thant ae arything nore labore iis aly oo kntier to compromise between Pure and probable rgoneatos fer the on te ute “The applications of rgeneraton inthe prsent paper wil be to seme emece tnt meni Wns nn 8 ‘poeniion he could he ui to regenerate its mening when er ands latent made hy another feraon the term irengenconeg™ ‘ould be more approprai; und when he thinks ofa mow Soopetins, Ue procas would be biter tlle "gonraion” Bot we helene tes vrord “regeneration” fo cover ll tee prow. Fer sample, eee listening to epeech, the production of mening ean be sgn’ ay last regenoration rage inthe heracehy mentioned belo tipen forma 8 funeion of econ ja nal he thor aged Tee pats ”ING JOHN GoD that this hasbeen frequently overlooked because meaning is associated with the metaphysis] nature of consciousness, and one does not readily toocinte metaphysics with questions of economy, Peehape these ‘nothing more important than metaphysics, but, for the constuction of ‘an artifical inteligenco, twill bo necessary fo represent caring in some physical form. 4 Some Representations of “Meaning” and Their Relevanes to tne ‘elligent Machines Semantics is not relevant to all problems of mechanioal language ‘rooesing. Up to point, mechanical translation can be performed by formal process, auch as dictionary loop and sora prsing, Many lexical ambiguities can be rsolved statistically in term ofthe context and some as a congoquanco of the parsing. Sometimes one ens fo axther by using an iterative proces, in which the leieal ambiguitin se rvoolved hy the parsing, ard the parsing in its tam require tha reeks tion of lexical ambiguities. But even with this iterative prowess some likely that perfect translation will depend on semantic questony LF, 80), Ben if this is wrong, the design ofan tlerainteligens machine will stil be very likely to depend on somantos (2,50), What then is moat by semantios! ‘When wo sak for the meaning ofa statement we are talking about Janguage, and sre nsing a motalangeage and when we aa forthe mene, ing f “moaning” we are tsing a metametalanguage, soit is not ear sing that the question i diblent 9 anwwer. A resot susvey chapter vas entitled “Tho Unsolved Problom of Meaning’ [3}, ere we shall touch on only afew aspects ofthe problem, some of whieh wens not ‘mentioned in that survey eee alsy Black [7). ‘tis interesting to eel tho thought word-thing triangle of Chasiee reroe and of Ogden and Richards. (Se, for example Cherry [12), p. 10. Max Black ascribed a similar “triangle fo the chemise Laver: fn a recent lecture.) Tt will help to emphasize the requirement for 4 physical embodiment of meaning if itis here puintel out that the tinngle could be extanded to a thought-wond-thing-ongram. tte. daedron, where the fourth vertex eepresmnts the physic! embratnet of ‘the word in the brain, and will be assumed here ually tobe tll ‘ssebly ‘Given a clan of linguistic transformations that transform statements {nto equivalent statemonts, would be plausible to represent the ‘meaning of the statment, or the proposition expressed by the sate ‘ment, by the clas of all equivalent etatement, (hie woul! he anal ous to s modified form of the Froge-Renell dfialtion of «eardinal * THE RST ULTAAINTELUGENT MACHINE integer, for example, “2” ean be defined as the clay of ll lasses “mila o the cass consetng of the words “Newton,” “Gaus,” and {Bardot The point ofthis representation ie that it makes reference to linguini operations alone, and not to the “outside warld.” Te might therefore be appropriate form reasoning machine that had few robes Bropertos, Unfortunatly, linguistic tzanaformations having a etilly {ransitive property are rate in languages. There are leo other lsieal Aificulios analogous to thave in the Frge Russell definition of a sardinal integer. Moreover, this representation of meaning would be ‘exoasively unwieldy for mechanical nse Another possible repreemtation depending on linguistic trans formations sw single reprevottive of the clase of all equivalent state ‘ments, Thais analogows to another “deiiton” or, beter, “woprenta, tion,” ofa nrdinal integer (ne for example Halmos {31}, 7. 99) Th representation i ertinly an improvement on the previous one. th “epresentaion were to be used inthe construction af an nltrainteligent Imachine, it would be necesury to invent a language in which ech siatement could be redneod toa canonical fer. Sueh an achievement would go most of the way to the production of perfect mochanial ‘ranlation of technical Iiterature ag bua oRen been recognized, and it ould slo be of fundamental impartance for the foundations of it {tive or logical probability (21), pp. 4 ane (8), The desig of such “canonical Tanguage” would bo’ exleemely dieu, pechape even logically import, or perhaps ie wonld require an’ ultaineligent machine to doit For human beings, meaning iv conocened with the outside world ot with an imaginsry ld 90 fat re ‘of monning that ane not entirely linguist in content might be more useful for our purpose. ‘The behaviorist regards statement a4 stmalas, nd interpre les ‘caning in ters of the clase oft effect romponae) in overt behavior ‘The realism of this approach was shown when "acobson made the siguifeant dicovery that sation potentials ari in. missles sim {snoously with the meaning process with which the activity of the muscle, if overtly cased out, woul eorrexpond” (3, . 863), Thus the lchavioral interpretation of tesning might be releraat forthe under standing of the beharior and eduastion of people and robots, eapecaly androids. But, forthe design of sltrintlligent machine, te itera ‘presentation of meaning inside the mackine) ca harly be ignored, 0 thatthe behavioral interpretation ie hardly enoveh, So far wo have been diseussing the interpretation snd representation ofthe meaning ofa statemont, But ven the meaning of « word ie much tess tangible and cloar-cut than in eometisies supposed. This fact waa ‘emphasize, for exampie, by the philosopher G, Z, Moore, Later John a|nyING JOHN Goo Wielom (ot JO, Wisdom) emphasized tht wo el an objet « ew AE has eno of the properties aft cow, with are Se sis operty being ementia. The ne to male ths terete Ineaing more quantitate aad prbabinae has een i Tuowo pcos ty tho prem writer, who haw insted that espe ii dfn it bse import forfotareicboeins non resival eaten (9, 25,31, 4,4) "An object ld te nk ay 8s (ch asthe cas of ei some Fenton fig 9 1s pst, wher he ps are che eee ogi shai te tho objet hae quali @y Gy = Qu Then prion pa oe free faction lated to ote quinn the mele mos een ‘ay, te on. eran ann of elation spiel Fs en omete rons path on tho refine ior ily tbe saa in rseoe oft cow if thas fr protuberance the ok Me aed ‘only a frst approximation to the truth” (47) pp. I241a0; seas ‘Hayok [53], p. 70). Th light confusion in this pasage, between the Aefnition of a cow ani the recognition of one, was deliberte, set ‘pecially appropiate in an anthology of partly baled Sean Tr cas ta Zetolved by drawing the distinction between a lgieal probability sede ‘subjective probability (eee for oxample [82], and alan the detnation Detwoen subjective and objective information that we tade te tie previous aretion ‘nwrtton mainly onthe sasomption that an ultainteligent machine oi ‘consist largoly of an artificial neural net, wo need in eect 0 noweer Physiological representation of meaning The behavior interpretation willbe relorant to th education ofthe taachin, but not so veh toe sesgn, I does not require mach imapination to appreciate thet the ‘robabilitio and iterative interpretation ofthe deftnvion of a word og Aeseribed above, i lable to ft well ato models ofthe enteal nervous THE RRST ULTRAINTELUCENT MACHINE ‘cltassembly theory of Hebb (54) (eo alo [58] and (71), or rather ona ‘modiseation of it in which “subaseomblies” are emphaised and central contro is assumed. If the prevent disoumen vontaine fncone ‘stench, he present writer shouldbe blamed, (ora very go sey of fhe seleant literature of neurophysiology and pyebology, os Rosenblat (2), pp. 78) 5 Recall and Information Retrieval Whatever might be the physles! embodiment of meaning, itis tainly closely related to that of long-torm recall, Ewmediags reel is not strongly related to semantics, at any tate for nguate toca Tn fact experiments show that immediate ad exact real of sequences cof upto fity words is about as good for meaningless texts te fee for ‘meaningful texts, provided thatthe meshinglcea ones areas leat fo iordee” approximstions to English thet isto sy that the probability o¢ ‘ech word, given the previous fives ie high (90h Aocument that sald in oor hands "The problem ofthe setsiovl ot documents that ae not immediately to hand ielogieally a very diferent ‘matter, ans I isnot surprising that the processes af innedlate se long-tetm real should alo der greatly, ‘Tho problem of what the physial representation in for immediate fecal it of course not trivial, But for the moment we wich to discus Tong-erm real since i ia maxe related to the subject of sexsenten, ‘Tho neual method for attacking the problem of document naslov, ‘hen there are many documents (any aeral thousand), Isto tndey ach docement by mess of several index terms. We imagine & ibrar ‘stom, in need of some information, tot wome index terma thoes ‘assuming that he use any syatax, a last fr the present. In sls retrival system, the customer's index tomas can'be ured to extinee ocaments by means of sort, as of punched eats, The proces canbe mado more useful, not allowing for the work in ita implemontations st the terms of the documents, sd also thooe of the eastomer, a given ‘ations weights, rerving in some degree the fonction of peelubiitis, ‘We then have a weighted or statistical system of information rete One could conesive of a more complicated information retroral ‘system in which each document had associated with it » et of sone ‘ing filter forming a czeuit C. AU! documents would be queried tn parallel: the “isstherowdoctorin-thehouse”” principle. [SO] The a|nvINs JO8N Goon. mount of eneney gunerated fa the eienit C would be fed beck to a ‘aster control ereit (In tho brain the coreaponing eontal arte might be the “centrenoephale aystem” (79]) Whichever stewie G fot Dok the maximum power, the comespandingdocatent wait extracted fit. If this dooument alooe filed to sate tho vostomee sampleely, then the crest C woud be provisionally dlscrmesoel od the proces repented, and soon, ally, the search would be probabilistio in the sense that. the documents would he retrieved in order of descending = preter Probability, and the Istter would be registered also. Hf toes wee By 3 « «thon the process would stop at the nth document, Whose {ero would be a threshold on m and on Pr! pet nt pe Bore ample, the proses might siop when n= 10, of whan 9, 49, 1 24 > 0.95, whichever courred fat, The thresholds would ke parare sees, depending on the importance of the search. (Far the etentig ‘of probabilities (48), When we wish to reeil a memory, such as person's name, we cone sciously oF unconsciously use dur, analogous to Index tens, one elves or analogous to weighted index term, and It seme virtually ‘ertan that they loud to the retrieval of the appropriate memory ky ‘means of parle seacch, just asin the above hypathetioal dover ‘tcievaleyaiem. The speed of outa cancion ie much tao slow tr ‘primarily trial search to bo made, Tho scarch might very well pry feral: the los fine memorie take longer to recall ard tequine wee, ‘ifort, This might be because tho physical embodiment Cf the less familine memory requires a greater weight of eluce before fe Cit resonate” strongly enough, urthor evidence that the search son the whole, mute parale thas: ‘rial can be derived from Mandelbrot's explanation of the Zipt ng” of disteibntion of words [25 "The explanation requires that the ellort of extroting the rth eommonert word from msmory le roughly’ prot ‘When the clues do spark off the sought memory, this meory in its tarn reminds us of other clues that we aught heve used In adonce of ‘we had thought of doing so. These “retrieved clas" often provide an {enormous factor in favor of tho hypothesis that the memory fetneved the one that was sought: consequently we are often morally: seat that the memory is Uhe right one once itis recalled, even though ite recall might have been very dificult, Thetis again « strony ean Dlanoe to documont reteevsl When we extract a wrong memory, nies incorrect elves to come ‘tomind, and thes are iaie to block the crest memory fora mulsr af “ “THE PRST ULTRAINTELLIGENT MACHINE ‘eons, oF for longer if we pani, This ie anther reason why the Toes familias memories take longer to reall When we wish to recall incidents from memory, pertaining to a parsioular subjct, the method used i to bring to mind varia relevant {ots and images in the hope that they are relevat enowgh, numerous ‘tough, vivid enough, independent enodgh, a specie enough to neti. ‘ate the appropriate memory. (1 spcieity slacking, thee the wrong rmomory is liable to be recalled.) There sa clear shalogy wih the probabilistic definition of « wor and probabilistic recognition of an ‘bjoot quoted in Section 4, A corresponding method of information retroval isto lis index terms that are relevent snowah, numerous ‘ough, independant enough, and apaciic enough, and Gf the prea ‘a not enttely mechanized) vivid enough, This atitude towards index ‘terms leads to forms of probabiliate or aatatcaindeaing, ux sugested independently by the writer (35, {91}, p. 12) and hy Maron and Kus (64) who fronted the matter in more detail The present writer ‘subjective ond logieal probabilities as partially ordered only [27), but oes not consider that the fut of only partial ondring i the agin are of the dificulties in probabistie indexing. Wo have suid enough to bring out the analogy letween the proses of ‘call and the tetniquos of document rotreval, and to indicate tat f 1M 4s posible to develop a compreheesive theory of either of these subjects, it should be a probabilistie theory. The need fora probabilatic theory i farther Drought out hy means ofa short discussion of what right be ealed “statistical semantien" A complete discasson of statistical semantis wonld lea heavily on (0 the very intsieate subject of non-statistcal semantics, and 08 (3) some statistical theory concerning language, without ay deop da, cussion of semantic problems. But our parpose inthis section fe oy to make clear that complet treatment of stetatical eemantio Wout bye somewhat more goneral ian rooal and dooument fetriora If we wish to teach « language to a baby who starta In a state of comparative fgnoranee, we simultanconsy allow him to beoome fast ‘with some part of the world of nonlinguiti objets and alan with lin. {istic connde, expecially phonemes, The primitive ability af the bahy to achive this familiarity, although not nich more remackable than ‘the achievement of lower animals i ail very remarkable indeed, and ‘more eo, inthe writer's opinion, than anything that comes Iter i hit inteleetual development. If this opinion ts correct, then most of the struggle in constructing an ultraintaligent machine will be the con. struction ofa machine with the intelligence of an apo. ‘The child Iter easciates words with objects and activities, by mp ttn intra th nt Hons red iymune JoHn 6000) ‘regarded by the child as proportis of ax object in much the same senae a the vinal, olfactory, and tactual properties of the objet. For on ample, if the child sicoseds in pronouncing a word to my adesuts approximation, and perhaps points in approsimatsy the right dines oF otherwise mak approximately the ight geture, then rately "peaking, events are more likly to osc involving the abject occu, {n question; and, ifthe envionment iy not hostile, the events ato Hil to be pleasorable, Thus the words and gestures act as statis! index tems for the retrieval of objets andthe activation of proconses Av later stage of linguistio development, similar satstcal arcoattons are developed between linguistio elements themediver ‘The subret at statistical somantios would bo concerned. with all such steel associations, betwoen linguist clemete, between olinglste ot Uingsisti cements, and sometimes even between nonlinguste slencurs alone. ‘A basio problem in statistical semantics would be the eetimation of Probabilities PU, | 0) and P(O, |W), where W, eopresonte a word a ‘lump of nouste time series defined in suitable abstract sewon oe Drinted texts, a enquenoe of letters ofthe alphabet with» apace et oth fads: admittedly not an entirely satifactory dotnition) and 0, representa an object at an activity. P{W, | 0) denotes the probate {hat a person, speaking « given language, will uw the word’ Wie Assigmato the object 0, and P(O, 17) is the probability that ‘the object 0, aintonded when the word Wis vas. Steiety, the estimation of probabilities in nearly alwaye Interval ertimation, but, forthe we of simplicity, wo hore talk op if point estimation is te uaed. The ‘anges of vals ofboth andj are great; the vocabulary ofan educated ‘man in his native tongue, is of the onder of $0,000 words an ther simple derivatives; whetens the range of values ofj lo fat fur greater, ‘The enormity of the class of object is ofcourse reducible by means af egu By), med eo oe iteratively: The prooess terminates when the bilinene fort tales the ‘samme value bvioe running, Tho proces would lead tothe sopartion af 5 “TE RAST ULTRANTELUGENT MACHINE ‘he words into two elec or large clasps, ad wo conjugate champs o oeament, Consist one of the two smaller mates obtained by extracting tte rows and columns from B, coresponting to clump eed Se oe Jugate Balas thin smatee atin, tod fd lea meat of Uline form, This procduze wil piv our camp nto tro salle clumps, and wil imultanoosly wt tho conjugate lump, ti manner we ean continue to dichotomine our clams ull thoy ao ‘pproriately any dered size, The whole collation ef emgs woul frm a tee ‘Atul tia dssable cat lmpe shoud orerlsp issn applica tins to information reteoval, ad tin san be achered by mea of slight modifcaon of the above prooedu, in whieh the sie lumps aro made lager stil. That, place of taking all the oh ‘nana clamp, on ould take al hs componente In Basia aoater than ome negative threaold; andy ithe eonjupee cao A he componcata in By above ome negative terol. ‘ho ale ofthis botyaogal Prosar isto ince partially ‘nde stature ech of whow sabes clamp of ides rt tether with ite conjugate clump of ooumente aving obtained the paral! ordered act of comps, one could apply tte methods desrbet i], whieh, however haven een comply yorked out tn ordar to make eatinatec of Hi) whe fos tog col {ortho catimate log jy — loaf log, to be mabe (for ape when fu = 00}. (We have waten fy and, forte foal troqucres of ‘dD, Hopefaly, th higher-order taal information Geran} 10 Wer Wa| D) onl be esata in temas anon, lotr conavablefathod for aso documents ith index terns would be ines ofthe eigenvectors of Band of 8, chaee the primes sil inca tenapoition. By a theovom af ylvecen, the sigavloc of Bare tho sate an thowe of together with de Yaron, if > te, Wo ean wae the noazoro eigenvalues onder to Fae “ih tvo sete of egunvetos, an we coud der ench af wo te ‘a iganectors inte oda ofthe mits ofthe egevanes Teg ‘we couldaasociate withthe ith nde tern the St stapoaee of ok ormalned senvectors of 2D an with the jeh document th jth compenent of the ing w eigenvector of BB. This woud Scocite a weimunaal eto seach noes go acumen, The relevance of index tra | to document j could how be dined the correlation coer betwen he to aointed ectns, ‘Ansppronimate relationship between rovanoe an mutual intoreaton soot thn be found experimastaly, and wo euld then apply 1) for document retsoval, The anodat of alclation ropieed be aha aWING JOHN coon ‘ppliction of this method would be exceedingly great, wherena the sping algorithm mentioned befre coals prheps he eined oat org ‘computer of the next goeration. 6 Coll Assemblies and Subassemblies Suppove that one wishs to simulate peyhologiel association and recall on machin. We rsrice our attention tothe rel of se ad seh ether uonds are presente, at tot of the discssoa eas ty eapted ian obvious manent the recall ca gous sven satay ‘chutes, orto the retrieval ofa dovoment, given versus index toe ‘he dicutsion cond be moe inorder to cover the cass he Yords are een ara and form n Mor lain io Range ellinown approxiate movel for the prediction of wonts in se {50 text (€ (88), For the sako of simply, we shal goore oobi ‘sgntax, no tat on discussion will be Satis apo oes feet fo methods of infomation retsnval bce only on fades toga a fll robin af eal This ited problen ofa enough fr the sent and in think enesetery prlininary to any ong hee lacaion of real in general mye 1 thn are 1 words in the vorabulary, there ae potentially ‘sw = 12 awocistion of vasons strength letwcon ruin of a this example, is that of solcting tho word, 4, that ls tn couse ase ‘most asociated with the m words 4y ys dy which have best svcenty inserted atthe input of the computer. In the usual problen ot information retcioval 4 would bo a document acid dy, dayne would be index terms, ad the discuson of the previous sstion de af ‘elovant to tho present problem, ‘Tuo difienlty of making the probability eatinates [45] provides some @fthe explanation of why tnen are not onteely rational i Unie poor bility estimates aud in ther ecll. I ia possible, for examples tine, foe ‘mea, tho probability of eeieval of» ward ie approximated by ouly see {ers of Ba, (6.6) of tho previous section, An ultraatalligest mashing ‘ight be able to use more terms af th eaation, since eight be aide {o speod up the ealoulations by invoking tho electronie eousates eee hich it would bein clos relationship et. (32) Ravel! and Uetley (702] suggested thst tine delay might bo the ‘eur emtodiment of the amount of information in’ propoction, TU = = log Pu, and that this would make conditional proba, ilies cnalyembodiable, sac the diferenoe between two ime cag is ito time delay. As point ont in (38) thin lea extonce once utual information, log-odds, weights of evidence, and tendons to ‘THE RST ULTRAINTELLIGENT MACHINE saute, But of ours time delay is only one of many possible physical ‘representations of «rel variablo, ad others conld be wages in erser of synaptic facilitation. In view of the oomplexty of the brain it 's quite probable thit more than one repreentation ts wotd, and Chis ould give greeter spe for adaptability. One must net be ovemeay to epply Ockhain's lobotomy, As in other complex systems, aan theories can contain ekmenta of the truth, Reonomlate ave fatnlioe with thle peineipo ‘We retum now to our problem of information rotieval Suppove that w = 30,000 and that some nooeptable method were found for estimating the mutual information between ead patt of the 80,000 words. Then it will sill bo hardly prastienble to list the £50 ‘ilion answers in immediately aooceibia form in e machine that i ‘not ultrsparall Tstead it woull be neossery to put the words that “Inve appreciable association with agiven word, A. into alls ofsnemory locations, called say the list. Kush word in'sach lat most have the strength of the asiociation (the logarithm of the asvocltion factor ‘agued toi. Many of the ists would he rory lang. ‘The process of seal involves the collation af the words in the lists corresponding to eect ‘inpat words, together with some further arithasli, Collation i sow ‘rocos ond iti tempting to ask Whether it would be more eeonoricat 4 simulate tho proorss of reel hy means of an artifical neurel net ‘wotk, or at aay rate by meane of ultrsparalalimn, Tho wap of arte ‘weociative memories ta step in thie diestion, buts far only ¢enall ‘gue (fr example [60 65), For parpoves of information retsova, which In effot is what we ate discosing, it might be worth while to design compater that are not ultraperaiel bat have extremely rail ellen 45 0 special feature. Such computers woald be vry uscfl for fans, tion serieval hy mean of index terms, but whon the words are atsongly interdependent statitially, asin ordinary language, a machine ueeee ‘ici! noural nets seems Intuitively to Bold out more promis of Aexibilty. (Seo alto the diseusions of “higher-order interactions eter in this seton). IE each word wore represented by an artificial neuron, of otherwise Lighly loalzed, ie woud take too lng to wt up the asonations, ales there wero wie ~ 1) association bare built in, and this woud be very ‘expensive in equipmest, Moreover, i lt aot easy to seo how mote aan ‘small factin ofsuch a machine coald bein operation at ay te ine, 40 that there would bes great Wastage of poteitial computation power, Yor these reasons, a machine with "distributed memory” seat mors promising. As Eceles says (U0), p. 268), "Lashley argucs convincingly ‘that milions of neurons are involved fn any matory roal, that sey ‘memory trace or engram has multiple reprstatation; thas each ncuron sfor oven each synapte joint is built ito many engram” (61), A fucther relevant quotation, from (34), ie “An interesting analogy i with the metho of eaporimpoond coding, of which Zatocoding ivan example, This is « mcthod of coding ot information for infrmation-rotieval parposes. Suppone We Wisk Lo Sdeaify «document by meane of index terms. Hach tae ia Fopree, tated by menus of y punched holes in a ead eantining 4 locations ‘ach of which can be punched or ack punched. [or each of the indos {erm} we may clock» loeations out of the Wat random [to pansy ‘Tho representation of the joint cocurence of m index terms ie tho simply the Boolean sum of tho m individual panchlngn of » locations ech. «Ta the pplication to information reeioval if we extenct all the cards punched inthe yloeations enresponding to any piven tres, ‘womay get some cars that are irvlovant by chanve- 103 lange, end ‘is auitably seloted, mistakes nod seldom oocur, In fact tl nacaal to arrange that O—snpt 7 resem ‘This must be the st value af» snos to have half the holes panchod tives the Ingest varity of posible panchings, “By analogy, Nature's most exonomical usage ofthe brain would be for a reasonable proportion of it to be in operstion:x¢ aay che tim, zther than having one concspt, ane neaton,” Instead, each tenon ‘would oovur in a great many dlstnetclruite, and would nat be ie Aispensabe for any of them, Such an analogy ean at bost give only « very rough idea of what ‘908 on inthe brain, which iv am ultradynaeni system an Sosttarted ‘ith a collection of punched card. (The analouy would stout Dettori, instead of taking the Woolean sur, threshold mere tal st ‘ich location.) But i we take m= 20, on the grounds thatthe gamo of “orenty question"fsa reasonably fit gato, we fd that the preset tion of « word occupies sy a thistith ofthe neurons in the sort, Te ‘mut be emphasized that this is not mach bettor than a gues, partly bocause iti based on a very ede optimaliy principe, But fee net contradicted by the experimonte of Penfild snd other (or exaple (60), 127) who found that the electra simulation of smal area on the surface of the cortex could inhibit the recall of fretion of the bjot’s vorubulary. (Por further referenen, see Zangwil 108)) For it is entirely posible that a large subnotwork of neurons onl be i hibited, and petheps even sparked off, by simlation at special point Among the theoris of distibuted memouy, the “oe! assembly theory is prominent, and, as stated in the previous seeton, a modified 56 THE RST ULTRATELUGENT MACHA ‘orm ofthis theory willbe adopted here. The meaning and point of th theory oan be explained in tors of ith applications to the linguist sctvities of the Bran, although the theory fs usually dcuwed i ore general context. ‘There are some advantages in dissing « special cage, and some generalizations wll ba obviows enough A el ‘esembly is tasumed to onsit ofa grt aumaber of nearons, which cat all be active atleast once within the same interval of about a quarter ‘to haifa seond. For simplicity we shall zonerally take the half second ‘timate for granted. An assembly reverberates approximately a ‘unit, and, while reverberating, it tends to inhibi the remainder of the cortex, not neuron by nouren, but enough wo tae no other assembly con bo ver active dating the same time interval, A word, ora familia Dhroe, is often represented by an uaxombly, and, morw generally, an ‘esombly usually corresponds in Hebb's words, 0's “single clement a ‘onscioumens.” But tho eonsslouaness might habituate to sasmhile that ens very frequently, I will be assumed in thie papor that thereat also subassemblics that san be active without dominating the whale corten, and ala that ten ‘an siembly becomes fatigued and breaks up it leaves sveral of its ‘ovn subassemblies active for various lengths of time, foun a geoond Lo soveral minutes, and typically aboat ten seconds, ach suboenbly ‘would consist ofa smaller group of neurons that aa assembly, bet with sreater relative intercoanectivity, The aubssmblies might in eels fm beeak up into sill amaller groaps of etill greater relative inters connectivity and of greater “halfves.” These could be ealled sub. subassemblies, ete, but wo shall usally us the tra “sbsssesbly” generically to include subwubassomblis, ste, When an assembly ges ‘dominance for a moment itis approximately completly ative, when the subject is wide wake, The proows i aati foe eve of appro ate regeneration. Tle motesact rageneration for iit were thers would be no leaming, Probabilistic rgeneration might often be represented by the degre of ativty ofan asembly. This degree of activity wil be cariod forward hy the subassomblis, 0 tht the benefit of prob lio regeneration, as desribod in « previous seston, will be avaiable; Also tho aativty is less, and tho assomby Is eomewhat smaller, when tho subject is slory or dreaming, but the netvity is acumed to be neaely always enough far the assembly to have a definite identity, ‘excopt pechape in droeals slap. When the subject is nearly acleep, ‘there might he frequent intervals of time when there lr no active ascembly "The ancocistion between two auemblioe cou be largely embodied in the subassemblies that they heve in common ‘When aman isin a sleepy condition, an arombly ned not be followed ‘7yc 20H GoD setor enact rosking nem fr shat iT hat Sevtheceatyd mig one to mae ches ee {ator tf hs ne ake whe a ee ‘iwi cont te srl pty a gt eas se sap. The hypothe oot tal the ase tne lage th rt ht abe ornate est sot nen negh ety to ajo i income Te ae be haut bth eran dam, he lowe sey tha invade, m ha whe sn wan te one ok ‘tester of tee ot be tly eral Whe dean te Pett not cnngh any in theses tos ay eoe {tint th samen oa ed Un i pee Te bight wal tat tensa mow bee ae ng shen by woul oem anges having age ees, ‘odes eat. Te wo ex he oneal ehh ‘sl fren an bo ntaaly goatee Shomlao egsortion of fll sues weal cae he ‘spar nd again saat ee ‘ene pr tems ern to comoun ovgh sph i a oust epoca ly 1 mero gh a ate asin dag ‘in er th tcmber te emiperae trate cermaponting to longer nomey ipa flowing eta Sh pater srt of tynape fom trogen a Th lyn! outer of rigs ihe aie thos see Weve nay soxhotoe at enue af caveat ey ‘hsp ont nama cough oat aling te seth esas sth Ti asin nls o detent es Ses bata fring psa how tae man one preeted "Weve tt ho ong yap, he nt, son sly mitts nthe dso no a a hs sans ‘eu opt soa ni of mero inne thas Shin wal an ap prev aoa ee seine ‘asia sent, whch would uf wun be deatens Pea ‘Raman in tenth type when anton an ae of aeroncan reavonay be sed ea natn sa a sb The nar ef ayaapo's wage Wat agi eal Sst for ony a sul arn of tht mute Se the Conte oe igo tro shyt ld ep ‘pein ey ll nop do nr nck manan og “re wi sn mei agus weeny edd oe ofthe cota the reat pun woul neve hte sed s a srr af parched recent facture a ee ca sient oan sien Ors aroreeasaes ioe an maton eae Secures a rr ce So Cee ae ata ee ce Bde tamutien. wane ghaesse Ricaacearet tetas ntoagri anata eee sSiegagiprcnarayeeegess iiiraycachecme ear mara gear enteeatea eoeneyemain oSieife eaieatnae erecta Aue aac teers Siete arterans epee toa ‘net dite aere reeling Serer eens aerate Lora aes mecca en pace Sam Soe aoa beeen Seer ce Sav gous aera ngrense tet pec oma a scars tn cue Seabee tk eet wate Siemans cncrane ce inerrant: Rica ore cee ong coe As pointed out by Rosenblatt ([82), p. 95), » permanent lowering of wag capo ree Saat rraens aecogmmaae Bae enetie, geoctcoeee eats Seaienncrwenmen ane iro eats gemma ‘are abreterimnea Gon a enesenaeoeers souiaegar gm cac amen erae pecorino ee Sete tee tea mange ii ags rete meee Saran oe ema 3lnvine JoKN Goon. ‘upwards whon usd. It Is neither newesary nor deirable that every synapie should increase it strength whenever it is used. The encrinocy umber of neurons in an aasembly make it uaneoeanry, and the fe, ‘quent ses ofthe synapses make it undesirable. Aer a ert number of utes, an assembly docs uot nood any further strengthening A esntenoe tasting ton seounds would correspond to an assy ‘sopeence of about twenty asgombies, Hebb (54) p. 143) anys that tho ‘apparent duration of “conceptual proces” in man i ftom one to five oF ten sconds, The expresion “conceptual proces” ig ofcourse vag, and the discussion is hare mado somewhat mane eonerte by fran ‘tin terms of linguistic ntiviey. A phonetns when iis part oe word ‘Pethaps comesponds to a subsesembly, and there will be many other ‘subassemblies corresponding to other properties of the word, but only © fimction ofthese will remain active When the asembly breaks up Which assembly becomes active at the next tomont mast depend on the curent sansory input, the extrent dominant eam, av the’ ‘currently active subassemblcs. nivel, therefore. it depen om the ‘cent assembly sepuence, wherein the most recat sosrabies wl has the groatztinfuener, It also depends of souree on the somipermanent Statiostorage, the “past history." Well formed usemblice will tnd coe ‘activated by’ small frostion oftheir eubuecmbli; this why ‘ousble to read fast with practico: It la not noceuary to abserve all the Drint Memory abbreviats, An example that shows how the sativation of an assembly can depend on the proviows assembly aequenoa ie the recall of a long ‘seauence of digits, suchas thos afm. AC Aitken and om ter, foe example, con repeat several hundred digits of w correctly, Tf we eames ‘that thee in one assembly foreach ofthe ten digit 0, 1,--.,9, thon iin lear thatthe ext asm tobe activated att deed on tone that inst the previously uctve asambly. If thee fe no hxanome (eajuenes of six digit) thal is ropeated in the flst 600 digits of, then one rethod of remembering the 00 digta in onder isto memories» fe, tion of hexanomes to mononomies. Then any six eoutcoutive dite would unique determine the next digt in this pls of fr exami, ‘he digit Sis determined by the hexanome #15022, ‘Lotus consider how the subassembly theory would account for his ‘or tho sake of argumeat, wo shal gare tho stong possiblity that prodigy has an assombly fr say onch of the handed atin Ainomes, snd continue to assume one assetibly for each of the ton digits (The argomient could be modied to allow for other possibilities} We take it for granted that tho subject (Aitken) i in the pry “rot corresponding to the recitation ofthe digit of = Suppo that the ‘aembly corresponding to the digit ¢ has subassemblies a, 1), a, 2), o THe fast WTRARTEUIGEST PACE “jt thst hee armbols compond to sabaaembies of wus ‘ivy hors “halve Tht, proved tat the dg terete by Alten st «costs rt, on st of hacembln tht mo ees the sembly eorneponding to Soul boa the form sh) aah sb malo MGM). -0 0 sma), ay the ase subsatimbiy (eloogig to aneriy to become engl oe} “soments of tine." TF a lest to snbancbly cf each mee rtngutied at ee tment within the fst x moments ae ie Seventy ts extinguished, then this theory cull somata fee est of th ratation, Fo, tay piven momma, th acu oa Ssebles wld uniguely determine tat acl to benaane, 11 the rctaton were slowed dows by a moderate Eau tee ts ‘ould tl be enough eae fr th wigue determination ofa ie uations of eativation of Uae rubassemblien, ‘Thor is an analogy botwecn esl aezblies and tho gol thas can, form in» polymerization reaction. (See Flory [17] for a comprehensive Aisusion of polymerization, ot [45] for 8 short self oontannd dos, ssiption of some mathematica theory uate might also he wlewan to call asmblies.) The ge is often regarded as a molecule of inne sna, bat ‘there cnn be other largish meloealas prot simultancoualy, aaalgo ‘to tho subassemblies. Polymeczation is not as dynanie as consol ‘ctvity, v0 the analogy is nperfet, but iis iatrucivesioes shows ‘the plasabilty of subassemblies A theory that dost some of the work of the subassembly thooty is the theory of “primed neurons" (4, p, 606 and (77), We quote (from the former reference}: “After an ‘sasemably hee just been, cxas ‘wished, many of te neurons will have eeved subthreshold activation ‘without having fied. Miloer call them ‘primed neurone’. A pined ‘ouron may be regardod asthe oppoute of w reftactory ae, Thesetine, ‘n vetuo of “emporal summation” for newons, parla of socady ‘xtinguined assembly will be primed, 90 that it will be easly ne setivated during the next few eavonds, This ison explanation of thor form memory diferent from that of reverberasoryleouta, but an activated astombly mast itaelf reverberate, Milnor sens hat the fet of priming dies away after afew eoonds, But I tank it woul be ‘wafl to assume that tho time constant ean vary greatly from ouron to neuron sineo this may help to explain our sense of duration, snd sso ‘medium-term memory.,Here, at clewhere, other explanations. are Posble, such as the gradual extinction of stall roverberating inate within assembles.” (The lat remack is seerones to mibassemblion, otyne soKN Goo, ‘Tee aatasembly thor sens tobe a more naar foo than sat of ‘ied neon, for te prpow of explining te qos of ay oF ‘semble although both sight bo lature of the brats: One ead xf ethanembln to ent since the deny of connect i a ‘stembly would be expect vary fm pac to pcs the este Suabcmps of high connectivity ta «network would be opel eo ‘sree ongor than tho of leone Althoagh teal be segue thas highly nected slump show become hosted ore viel, it shosit be obreved atthe spnaon I chee as Glam wll endo be arog than whore the eemetty i ow ei hefoesatura to ame tha the mbhmpe coms tal soenbln "might tm out tha the thor of primed nerons wil be sullen 40 plain sho workings ofthe baa, withoet the mum af mabe ssc, but tho ater theory pvc the hn of anes tepuenet tin tha en well wth the nthe of probabil enero “The theory of bases stl for any lange uy eon king comnaietion neewore (sh ua that of © hamed ney) that emp aoe to baiove,wth Ashby Gp. 22) that ery wide ‘las onan might xt intlget Hebi provided hat hey dave enough interconnect an dynamie nats Machines setaiy ted tome dace, ut tin toaonabie to cup tat mete ted Complication cn be tad for igensity in dng, Foran sal ‘sign machine of sy 10 eomponeste tit b edueabl otra inaligeney btw much mre ete deed machine 0 10 ‘ompenents night be equally pod “Tat sre design ences eb sen fom on of tho objection to the cll esombl hoy on ginlypropoundal vy edb. Hebbal ot vginaly ame tat wes yeury to tein ahiton ed Miler printout eat wthos inkbton, te eels woul the wig crtx, Uinatly tere oa be only ene emer. ator Inbioa it eased to exist, a wel an wnat, o sl the ‘eels woud haye tov misrsepily anal in compare with ‘ho ertx. Tho later atti ond he Inettet with el tsbited nasory." Miler acsordngly are th hesrone tnd to inhibit oe ene them. efor sve muy tare wn ace 2 ind ofthe dimensional hing ne, where the hols eoreapond to ‘inhibited neurons, sas ‘The spl odel would amome thst each Gang ne fone) sas the entire sorts or pera oly the ete nccation sores, pera other pat the brain (9) Tafa, aly for ea Simply cet con? “ees unguaifa, Thane ed oe tome mathomsticl thereat show tint very lye nutabe of @ ‘He RAST ULTRANTELLGENT HaCaT Astnctassmblos soul exist under reasonablo aeunptions for the paramere that dvcube eonnestvty. It reasonable to conjecture {hat the thinness ofthe cortex isa relovant paromete, ot rater the “topology that i encouraged bythe thinness The dimensions af the sorte if aigheond on, ool fn about 0 wm by 80cm 3 ee {07}, pp. 32 and 3), Tein poole thatthe sembly thory wal ‘become mposibeifthe cortex were mish “thicker” Ie canon eat the problem mathomatealy, pesheps we should experiment with an sal nore net of neural dimensions approximately 50% 10,000 40,00, hat smaerscalo experiments would naturlly be Wed fret ‘hore must rely become advautayein having thin eortoe, there ‘one world have tisker one. Ie stm unkisy tat he bets ce {kins roy uel edule of evolutionary history. Hence the anatomy af the rain i very relovant to th design of the it ltrantliget tnnohino, but the designer hast guess which fates aye important ‘perstionel functions, and waich havo merely Dosh tina Sine itis ot known what aloe of the paruneers ao eguited for ‘heintaligent operation of eural nt te poaiis oly to gues wie features of the cortor sty mont rlovant forthe denign of antes intligentmnehve. Tho feature of» good sbor-tcrm memory (“ten tion span”) ofthe order of 20, wero the active tt o's single sso, etn ementia for nalgence ln meaner aed ‘oarprosimately hala cneond tmighteven be pose totmroveon tho perfonsanen of brain by taking the avenge durion of the sequen somomhatgreter than By. But there mes bel othe twofal average duration, fora given cot in equipment, Thi might ‘be dotermined hy the fact thatthe longer an ansombly saquen the smallermust be he averagosiz of theaasenblic; bat is movetkly to be Aerie by the fact thatthe somplenty of eaucept ca be seughly ‘aeasud hy the durations of tho sembly sequene, aud bey Certain lool fcompienty tho brain woul gt be largo enough bo nudla {horelatonsips between the couse, Una mare pene discus the Auzation woul bo interpreted ase kind of "halo" ‘When guesing what hologial Soaares are mat relevant to the sonettution ofan atesintligent snacking ite neeewuny to allow fos the body as whole, and not ant he bra an alrnntligent machine ‘woul ed also wx input owaoriam) and an outst (retest. Sion ‘noch ofthe etuction of the ft Uraintligent machine wool be ‘erformed by a human beng t woul be avsable forthe np td ‘utp to bo intaitialy tangible. For example the inp might contin vival and ‘actual fst end tho output might conc arti limba. In short the machine ould be somthing of a robot, The sa sorium and motoriaa might be eonnested topographically to part of 8the two surfaces of the disk that represents the cortex. Many other ‘esiions would have to be mado eanasing the design, even boone any really useful experiments could be performed. ‘Theo decisions would concer qualitative dotils of stustate and alo the values of quant tative parameters, The need for farther theory a greet, vinoe, witha ‘advances in theory, the amount of experimentation ‘might be peo. hiitive, Bvon if the values of the parnineters im the corvbral carter ‘wero known [90), theory would be requiod fm onder to decide how to seals them to a model with fower eamponents, Avery teutative example ‘afsome quantitative theory is given nat the ond ofthe poaont motion It has boon azguer (79) that tho cortex som tobe unr the contol fe more centrally placed subcortical region, par in the diencephalon, “notin the new brain but ln the old” (8, p. 21). Ponte cals the perdty hypotbetcalconoling region the “oetteacophatie system,” It coms that consciousness ts key to he associated with thin ystems, A- natural inferonoe of the hypothevis that consiousnen is wocited with tho old brain in that the lower animals have conscioustes, aad ea experience “real metaphysil pan,” an inference natural to eomninen ‘sense but ditked by some experimentaliste for obvious Teas: they therfore might eal tm ‘Sometimes Penfel's theory Is considers to be inconsistent with ‘Hebh’s, but inthe present writer's opinion, the asm theory ie made aie acnpt by combining i with this hyputheis of cena cons or the following mechanism suggests ioe. Th greater the smount of soivity in the cortex, the greatr dhe number of inhibitory pals tent to ali curently inactive parts of the cortex hy the centsencephale ‘system. This negative fod mechanism would provent ae assembly ‘rom fring the whole cortex, and wold alwo fend to make all ecb of the sume onder of kite, fora given slate of wala of the oon ‘xonoophalie ays. Thsin its tm would he lagely-deteemined by the condition of the human body as whole. ‘his “saoembly theory, naxx I," x we may eal i (taking a leaf out of Miler (77), has two merits. Fett woul lfow a vastly wonter ‘lass of patterns of activity to awombles they would not all have to have the pattern of «theeedimonsionsl Bahing net, Sling the soles ‘This maka it much eases to scoopt the posebiity that a vat variety of ssumblis can exist in one brain, a8 Ty of eoutee neteseey ifthe awembly theory is to be acceptable. Aaecond, acd loser; merit ofthe ‘mouifed theory is that a single mechasiam can explain both the contre of the “cerebral atomio reactor” and dors of Wakelulaeu, and per ‘haps of pryehologeal “set alco. Wally, the theory will shorty beso "rangi vs ear reno si intreting teve (10. o | TE AST ULTRANTELLGENT MACHINE to At in well with a somiquantitative theory of exusal interactions between ansemblis. ‘Th is proposed therefore that our artical neural net should bo ‘umbrll-shaped, with th spikes filing cone ‘During wakeftinass, most asemblies wil have & very complicated structure, but, daring dreams sleep, the ontrencophaicayetem wil ‘come aimost exclusively responsible, diretiy and lndimcly, for the scivity In the cortex, taking for granted of course the long-term 0: "veatio” structure of the cortex. The input from the cortex to the ‘entrencephaliceyatem wil, anit were, be "reflected back” to the covten, ‘The assumption i that tho excitation put ot hy the ceutrencephalic ‘system hus tho funetion of encouraging cortical activity when it low, ‘aud dleeouraging it when i ie high, Under wide las of more datild ‘models, the amount of sctvity will then have apptoaimately simple harmonic amplitude when otier input into the oortex is negligible ‘Singe we ae assuming thatthe durstion of aol aesembly i abt half ‘seco, following Hebb, iis to bo expected thet the peri af this simple basmonio motion mill slo be about half a second, Phi would ‘explain the dia rhythm (08), p. 187) whieh cooute during seep ‘Apparently, very shyt assemblies do tot correspond to eonslons tought. To some extont this applic Wo all asemblies that are very ‘requently used. Conssiousnes ie probably at its height when seacu Ble grow Tn order to explain the alpha rhythm, of sbout Ave cycles pee second, when the eyes are closed snd the visual Smagination is inactive, ‘along similar Tine, we could assume that “visual asstiblies” have ‘duration of only about afith ofa seoond. The would be understandable ‘on the assuraption that they are on the whole restited to the vienat ‘cortex is, 10 aamaller region than most oer sssmblie (of. Aden ‘bd Matthow (2). hv sue ht, whan ay ie he sentreneph lic system encourages cortical activity, co that, at much tine, Various cuerent active subassemblies wil become more active. ‘This proves will eotinue until the activity reaches «ein! level, at whieh ‘moment the nourons wot already active are on the whol inibited by thove that ate active, Detween its subtesmbiies wil establish it us an asembly belonging to the upertoire ofthe cortex. This will happen whenever We lear some. ‘hing new oF when we ona 8 ew concept ‘Tho newborn child has certain bul in tendons uch a the exercise ‘of ite vooal organ. Wo asnume thet there ro ples centore in the 6brain, whose function is reinforecment, and that they are usally ‘sotivated when there isa “mateh” between a sound rently heand at ‘one generated by the voeal organs, The matching ould be done by 2 oreation mechanism, which in any cage is apparently requleed ia ‘rer to ecngnize the direction of w and, E. C. Chetry [i] poles ‘out the need for this, and also the pessiity of ite more general ‘application (ace alto [67, 6]. Also the child is rewarded by attention fiom its parents when it pronooness ew phonemes forthe fin tne, ‘Thos one would expect assemblies to form, corresponding tothe simplest. cxtrectly pronounced phonemes. Tho phonemer in agricultural som ‘munities might be expected to bo influenced by the farm suit, Asvombles corresponding to yllables and short words woul form dex, {part ftom tho words tht were negatively reinforced. Bach assay representing a word would share subassemblies with the ascemblic ~ {at repmesent ite ponemes, An saaembly for & word would sl have subassemblies shared with nonlinguistic axsemblies, auch as thove ropreonting the taste of mill, and, amore gently, reproventiog ‘experiences of the senses, especially at tho nine apertures, where the ensity of neurons is high for evolutionary reasons, And eo, gradually, ‘ho largely hierarchical strotare of assemble would be formed, the lowest levels being mostly closely eonnocted with the moterim aud ‘uso with tho sensoriam, especialy where the surface mourn demuty Se fh {tisinteresting to speculate concerning the nature of the esociations between cll assrablies, Wo shal suppose that there is some mea ‘ofthe strength ofthe association from one oll easombly, Po another one, A, or from an assombly sequence to the msembiy-d. Asean, the subassembly theory, thi asociation will be largely embod i the strong ofthe association to 4 from the subassemblies let bed by J, and will depend on the dagres of tctivation ofthe aubwasczntlics nd on the current peyshological "sst." A few distinct but related formvlas suggest, themselves, and will now be coined In these Soranlas we shall tae for granted tho dagrees of activation and the Psychological set, and shall omit them from the notation, ‘The fist suggestion i tat the strange of the aenoiaton from P to should be measured by 1(4 :F), asin the discnason of information retsioval in Setion 5. 1F Fis the asembly sequence dy, y-- sd ‘nd if these aesemblics supply statistially independent formalin, we haave, hy Ba. (6): Fog PA | Ay dyes yl = Tog PA) + SMA 2) TW oould then be wuggested thatthe tora og P(A) is represented by the “ e {HE RST ULTRARTELUGENT MACHINE ewngth of the connectivity from the seatreneephalie eystom to A. Actanly itis unlikely that the aseemblie will supply statisially ‘independent information and it willbe necmesary to aasume that there ‘ro interaction terms asin Eq, (5.8) We would then have at explanation ‘of why the next assembly that fre, fllowing an assembly sequence, by ‘often the oue that ought to have the Iageat probability offing sa a ational man. More preisaly, the terme I(d s 4, ecrespunding to the ‘most reoeotly active easemblig will be represented with lager weight, Consequently, when we wish to recall a memory, it paya to hold in ‘mind a the best clues without tho intervention of lee powerful clues ‘An objection tothe above sugguation is that i is necomacy to ad a constant to log P(A) to mako le positive, ad then the newuphyeologt. ‘1 aleulation” of tho strength of the aaroiaton from ths senteen: ‘cephalio sytem would be illoonditioned, Accondngly we now consider ‘other stageation, One ofthe distinctions between the aetion a the brain nd document ‘erievl aystemsisthné the brain aston ie considerably mone dynasye ‘The activity of the assemblice consttutes an exceedingly compliented cause! notvork. Iie natural to consider whether the causal callus (89) might be pplioee to it, ‘Reference [39] contains two immodiately relevant formulas, namely, Qu) — oe = FL the tendaney of F to cause H (Ff denotes “not P”), also deseribed as “the weight of evidence against if 8 dos not occur”; aud t= Puy UEP) mg LP tho “intrinsic” tendenoy of F to cause B, In both formulas, the laws of nature, and the state ofthe world immediasly before the occurence of B, are taken for granted and omitted from the notation, Like the smuttal information, both Q and A” have the additive property, OB: PG) — Qe: F) + QW | RY K(B:P+6) = KiB: F) 4 Ka | B) OF 6) QW: + QB:a) KUBO) = KiB: P) + KE) when P and G ate “independent causes” of B. Ths means that F and @ are slatinially independent, and aro also statistically independent a 1: P)sRWNG Jon ooo vn nt B. This deiition of independent cates, extracted fom [6 ‘assum 0 be & natural one bythe consideration ef firing aqua, in the event that th vstim iach, Pand @ are the coente dy fo mathasen; and prt a the given infomation, toes for psooted ad omittd from the notation, i hat the sergeant ut arin vee the ‘der fo We now take F asthe fring of an sswmbiy oF aembly squence, ho denoted by Mand wo take # othe fing of the assy oe Saeston that Q or i a recsonble nacre ofthe srg ofthe aasociation rom F to d. We then havo eddivity la on er te componeats of F, amombles or subncemblos have iniperdene tendencies to cae 4 to ie Other actos intration tr er bs ‘ued, and can be exposed in rerio vaya, for esa, UES B +0) ~ HUB F) + KEG) + UP) — 1B) ‘Tho “eaasal force," K(B F), tends to activate A, but tho assembly thats activated will ot be the one that maximizes K(B =F, bu satiee the one thet maximizes P(E | F) This can be achioved by astaning thet the ocntrencephalo eytem plies “farce” logit PUN (his wil always bo well approximated simply by P(.] The recliant {oreo will be —log{t — PU | F)) and Snerenss with P(E | F) a6 it ‘should. Wo seo that KF: 1) appears to he ior losial thant QUE FP) {fr osx purpose, sinoe it would be more dificult to se how the seater, epbalio system could apply “Trea” equal to —log {1 = PU | Py] 1 hate exista no for which —og(t — P(E | P)} exceed some rail hn» na ae baie, Sha ‘aught that oon wil be very much ef ano ap, could be tke, what isthe advatagy of tog IE: P) rather han oot PHF), an w meas ofthe stent ofthe tee asion from F to 1 (ln tho inter ease tte cntencepne ne Yosld not need to mae contribution) Two aamars tao oee Ait that if UE F) = PUB), then # shoot have me lesey et frm Send, that, when P ad have independent tendon Gist eae we ca eal oo tat leet ~ Pa | F-6)] = —togtt — 24 | Ay) oath — POE |G) + oglt — PoE) 1nd consequently the stengts would not be adaitiv, Hopefully these measors of slrentha of assotiation between sem ‘ies wil help to sugrest some quantitative neural methasicas thet sould be put to experimental tat “ {THE RST ULTRAMNTELUGENT MACHINE In physical terms, the interaction between 4 pair of assembling, ‘od 2, wil dopoud on the umber and size ofthe cubase i ‘lading the sububutsenbis) that thay bay in conmen, The ac of fubastemblios could be ealed the “intosoeten,” 4B. (A more sour le nolaton would be .8(T), where i th timo since B feed ‘he intersection doresce to zoo aa increas) The evo arder fntoration between tre asec, , Band, wil depend on Un ‘ot of wabatomblies common taal of them, 4.51. Ie and © have Je been active, they wil entibute a “for” tending to atvate xpreible fn the form | 4.8 | “| 40] ~ | 4.20}, wher the Zl sigs represent in somo sou the eur total sgt of the sia of wabaswomblion. The form | 4.5.0 | i wbtzactel i order {Wate ahoud not be counted twin Mote generally In th, Dole Poincaré theorem, the fring of an assembly sequen, day da cde ‘live an “ining” tendoney to cause Ato re, meatied craps She Append) by FAA cee) | BAA, | BL Ady As +E deal — (<# tinge 0. Gy Poedenontian: «praise in Me © ef Tpit Proce, pp. 511-928, HMO, Lama 100 _ 7. Seoteaot, Vy A hyphae of rsopnon In TH: Seen Setter pacieara 4, Shatnen, ©. By Pilon and eatopy of pinta Fags, Bal Sytem ea J. 0 $0" 44 (81). 9, Sham CE and Weaver, Ws Phe athena! Ther of ommunin ofan Cn of Tinos Pres Urey Moe 90, Sho Ds AY the orgenan of te Cea Cor pe 88, Wik, 41, Souder 1, Maoshetenin ing skton-bna ative machining ‘Tosunigca Adcom Compare 186 28 (100), ‘Soh, D. Hand Dariion, C,H Malntaine’ asvity in neared vel, Zidi. Computing Machinery 9, 36279 100) 1 Se FA ev separ ed gunn L, seeeainy. Sto Zoo, Hb (ot “st Semon, 1 Tn Howe, DH, Word aguniy, penal vay ant ‘al dhrtonthwsole- Pipe: Pow 8, 200-96 (0) pk Jones K. Mecano lamienton. 100 Irn ono ‘Mocina Troan of Zanguagr and Appel Language aly $F {485 National Physical Labortery. Taddingion, Eagan, 008 0. Sil HB Auoxaton actor fematon ral nes Comping ‘Movkinny 21-270 (1000, ‘ower, DB Stustarel end emtionl onpinieaon of manerawe. [SEEM emlaion of wowrone density with brn sss, J. Comp. Nea It o-46 tos, “ish Information tony ne the bas or themostatica ad thos ymin ofp Mesh 98,18 (1801. ise A,B dnign of condo probity computer. nfm. ‘Why, A ML Couionl probably onmpating in the nervous wate. Melanin of Tow Proce, Kline Papal aera Spey by 0. toa. hae. eons tae Wace, Wt, The Living Bram, Norton, Now York, 1989, ‘Win, RO. ‘Tones! lg in wet ition. Tn fa tlic grep. font on. 7h, toi ter tas. Woueraf'J. Man Bain, R., Soper! Onng, Wiley, Now Yer, Ios “Fogve, VU The dopth hypathaia. Ia Sacre of Langue ond ko Mthemationt Ars ektion, ej. yp H00CSK. i Mt See Zangwill, 6, The cereal lcalaation of paybological fu cro Si. io, 33844 100),