Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Understanding Technical Stock Market Indicators
Understanding Technical Stock Market Indicators
www.wallstreetcourier.com
The E-Book of
Technical Market
Indicators
by
office@wallstreetcourier.com
www.wallstreetcourier.com
Page 1
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Preface
The transparency of the American markets offers an array of indicators and allows
deep insights of prevailing sentiment. You find the activities of NYSE members like
specialists and floor traders, public and odd lot short sales, the Short Interest Ratio as well
as the large block transactions of the institutional investors published every week. Other
tools for technical analysis include trend indicators, daily advances and declines, daily new
highs and lows, volume, indices, put/call ratios and other useful information like Stochastics,
RSI, MACD, TICK and more. The problem is only that all these indicators contradict each
other most of the time. Countless books have been written on this subject, and no matter
how many will be written in the future: always be aware that there is no such thing as the
Holy Grail of the stock market. But some people are more successful than others and the
answer is quite simple:
No indicator is right all the time and you don't have to be right all the time. Just be
right a higher percentage of the time than wrong. Choose some reliable indicators and stick
to them. Don't follow some indicators for a while and switch to some others if they fail. Don't
be a technician in the first half of the year and a fundamentalist the next half. Be consistent
and disciplined in your approach. Don't abandon a good indicator because you think this
time everything is different.
It takes of course a lot of guts because the opinions of the most widely quoted gurus
of Wall Street are usually contrary to your indicators at that time. This is much easier if you
don't use margin. You will sleep a lot better if you buy fifty shares of IBM with the money
you can spare than two hundred shares on credit.
Happy Trading
Wall Street Courier
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Page 2
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Table of Content
Advance-Decline Indicators ...................................................................................................5
Advance-Decline Line ........................................................................................................5
Advance-Decline Ratio.......................................................................................................7
Upside-Downside Volume Ratio ........................................................................................8
Upside-Downside Volume Line ..........................................................................................9
Upside-Downside Volume Net Difference ........................................................................11
Advance-Decline Net Difference ......................................................................................12
Global Futures Advance-Decline Index............................................................................13
Global Futures Upside-Downside Volume Index..............................................................13
Market Indicators .................................................................................................................14
High-Low Differential Index ..............................................................................................14
High-Low Ratio ................................................................................................................15
Global Futures High-Low Index........................................................................................16
Global Futures Bottom Indicator ......................................................................................16
Cycles ..............................................................................................................................19
Large Block Index ............................................................................................................19
Short Term Trading Index (ARMS Index or TRIN) ...........................................................20
Trend Indicator .................................................................................................................22
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)..............................................................................................23
Index Options Put/Call Ratio ............................................................................................23
Call/Put Ratio ...................................................................................................................24
Global Futures Put/Volume Ratio.....................................................................................25
Smart Money Flow Index .................................................................................................26
Global Futures Timing Indicator .......................................................................................27
Global Futures Market Timer Index..................................................................................28
Global Futures Fear Indicator ..........................................................................................29
Wall Street Courier Index .................................................................................................29
Global Futures Trading Index...........................................................................................30
Global Futures Speculation Index ....................................................................................31
Program Trading ..............................................................................................................32
Calendar Spread ..............................................................................................................33
Odd-Lot Differential Index ................................................................................................34
Page 3
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Page 4
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Advance-Decline Indicators
Advance-Decline Line
The Advance-Decline Line is a market breadth indicator and should be compared to
the other market indices like the Dow Jones or S&P 500. Daily or weekly NYSE data is
used in the calculation. Because the Advance-Decline Line reflects the action of the general
market, any divergences are watched closely by market technicians. As long as the Dow
and the Advance-Decline Line are moving in the same direction the trend will continue. If
the Dow makes a new high which is not confirmed by a high of the Advance-Decline Line,
caution is warranted. Vice versa, if the Dow makes a new low and the Advance-Decline
Line doesn't you should cover your short sales.
WallStreetCourier.com
160000
140000
120000
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
100000
To calculate your own weekly Advance-Decline Line is very simple and you can
begin your calculations at any time. Just pick a large enough base number like 100000.
Then you calculate each week (or day) the difference between advances and declines by
adding the advances and subtracting the declines. If you have 1269 advances and 1457
declines on your first week, the reading of your newly created weekly Advance-Decline Line
would be 99812 (example below).
Page 5
Date
www.wallstreetcourier.com
Advances
09.06.95
16.06.95
23.06.95
30.06.95
07.07.95
14.07.95
21.07.95
28.07.95
04.08.95
11.08.95
18.08.95
25.08.95
01.09.95
08.09.95
1269
1714
1591
1346
2032
1507
894
1891
1404
1187
1624
1486
1656
1903
Declines
1457
975
1148
1348
692
1191
1875
845
1291
1489
1043
1176
1011
759
A-D Line
100000
99812
100551
100994
100992
102332
102648
101667
102713
102826
102524
103105
103415
104060
105204
The Advance-Decline Line gave a useful example in 1999. During the strong bull
market the advance was quite broad and the A/D Line moved in tandem with the Dow. But
when the Dow made new highs in the beginning of 1999 the A/D Line was already lagging
behind, indicating a weakening of the general market. Internet mania and technology craze
kept the market going for a while.
Page 6
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Advance-Decline Ratio
The Advance-Decline Ratio is also market breadth indicator. It is calculated by
dividing the number of advancing issues by the number of declining issues using daily or
weekly NYSE data. It works very well as an overbought/oversold indicator and as a
momentum indicator. A moving average should be used to smooth out the swings.
Date
09.06.95
16.06.95
23.06.95
30.06.95
07.07.95
14.07.95
21.07.95
28.07.95
04.08.95
11.08.95
18.08.95
25.08.95
01.09.95
08.09.95
Advances
1269
1714
1591
1346
2032
1507
894
1891
1404
1187
1624
1486
1656
1903
Declines
1457
975
1148
1348
692
1191
1875
845
1291
1489
1043
1176
1011
759
A/D * 100
10-Week MA
87
176
139
100
294
127
48
224
109
80
156
126
164
251
138
145
140
143
158
This chart shows you the weekly NYSE Advance-Decline Ratio on a 10-week moving
average. Readings below 90 indicate intermediate bottoms and readings above 170 tops.
WallStreetCourier.com
2,40
ADVANCE-DECLINE RATIO
10-DAY MOVING AVERAGE
2,00
1,60
1,20
0,80
95-08-11
95-10-06
95-12-01
96-01-26
96-03-22
96-05-17
96-07-12
96-09-06
96-11-01
96-12-27
97-02-21
97-04-18
97-06-13
97-08-08
97-10-03
97-11-28
98-01-23
98-03-20
98-05-15
98-07-10
98-09-04
98-10-30
98-12-25
99-02-19
99-04-16
99-06-11
99-08-06
99-10-01
99-11-26
00-01-21
00-03-17
00-05-12
00-07-07
00-09-01
00-10-27
00-12-22
01-02-16
01-04-13
01-06-08
0,40
Page 7
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Adv. Volume
673210
943121
964871
674725
867512
945574
755969
1008468
733204
565588
796723
629338
727349
746298
WallStreetCourier.com
180
Decl. Volume
732827
565840
666807
765076
353025
756197
1027248
584579
703285
669580
615752
603130
553140
418632
AV/DV*100
10-Week MA
92
167
145
88
246
125
74
173
104
84
129
104
131
178
130
133
127
126
135
160
140
120
100
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
80
Page 8
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Upside Volume
673210
943121
964871
674725
867512
945574
755969
1008468
733204
565588
796723
629338
727349
746298
Downside Volume
732827
565840
666807
765076
353025
756197
1027248
584579
703285
669580
615752
603130
553140
418632
Page 9
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WallStreetCourier.com
25000000
23000000
21000000
19000000
17000000
15000000
13000000
11000000
DIVERGENCE
9000000
7000000
5000000
3000000
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
1000000
WallStreetCourier.com
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
DIVERGENCE
7000
6000
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
5000
Page 10
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Adv. Volume
09.06.95
16.06.95
23.06.95
30.06.95
07.07.95
14.07.95
21.07.95
28.07.95
04.08.95
11.08.95
18.08.95
25.08.95
01.09.95
08.09.95
673210
943121
964871
674725
867512
945574
755969
1008468
733204
565588
796723
629338
727349
746298
WallStreetCourier.com
1000000
Decl. Volume
732827
565840
666807
765076
353025
756197
1027248
584579
703285
669580
615752
603130
553140
418632
Net Difference
-59617
377281
298064
-90351
514487
189377
-271279
423889
29919
-103992
180971
26208
174209
327666
Cumulative
0
-59617
317664
615728
525377
1039864
1229241
957962
1381851
1411770
1307778
1488749
1514957
1689166
2016832
500000
-500000
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
-1000000
Page 11
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Advances
1269
1714
1591
1346
2032
1507
894
1891
1404
1187
1624
1486
1656
1903
Declines
1457
975
1148
1348
692
1191
1875
845
1291
1489
1043
1176
1011
759
The chart went from extremely overbought in July 1997 to heavily oversold in September
1998:
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
-1500
Page 12
www.wallstreetcourier.com
WallStreetCourier.com
0,60
0,55
ADVANCES
0,50
0,45
0,40
0,35
DECLINES
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,30
UPSIDE VOLUME
0,50
0,48
0,46
0,44
0,42
0,40
0,38
DOWNSIDE VOLUME
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,36
Page 13
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Market Indicators
High-Low Differential Index
Like the advance-decline line, the high-low indicators produce signals when they
diverge from the action of the indices like the Dow Jones or the S&P 500. It is considered
unhealthy for the market climate if the indices make new highs without many stocks
reaching new highs at the same time. Chart technicians use various methods to spot
divergences from the major market indices.
The High-Low Differential Index produces good longer term signals when it diverges
from the action of the Dow over a prolonged period of time. Daily or weekly data may be
used and the calculation of this indicator is very simple; just subtract the daily or weekly
new lows from the new highs to get the differential and apply a moving average to smooth
out the swings. If you have 479 new highs and 31 new lows on your first week, the reading
of your newly created weekly High-Low Differential Index would be 448 (example below).
Date
09.06.95
16.06.95
23.06.95
30.06.95
07.07.95
14.07.95
21.07.95
28.07.95
04.08.95
11.08.95
18.08.95
25.08.95
01.09.95
08.09.95
15.09.95
Highs
Lows
479
371
491
292
485
635
331
464
402
337
338
336
397
530
664
31
42
56
42
29
36
50
43
42
47
53
46
50
31
43
Differential
448
329
435
250
456
599
281
421
360
290
285
290
347
499
621
10-week MA
387
371
367
358
383
399
Page 14
20
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
WallStreetCourier.com
www.wallstreetcourier.com
1000
500
-500
-1000
-1500
High-Low Ratio
The High-Low Ratio is the number of new highs divided by the numbers of new lows. Daily
or weekly data may be used in the calculation. Readings do get sometimes very distorted if
there are for instance about 600 new highs and 5 new lows or vice versa. A long-period
18
16
14
12
10
Page 15
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WallStreetCourier.com
0,25
0,23
0,21
0,19
HIGHS
LOWS
0,17
0,15
0,13
0,11
0,09
0,07
0,05
0,03
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,01
Page 16
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CALLS ADVANCES
CALLS DECLINES
PUTS ADVANCES
PUTS DECLINES
It takes you only five minutes every week to calculate the Global Futures Bottom Indicator:
Subtract the result of calls adv./decl. from the result of puts decl./adv.
Example
Prev.Week
This Week
Unch.
Puts Adv. Puts Decl.
8000
7000
25000
6000
24000
8000
Unch.
10000
7000
Date
09.06.95
16.06.95
23.06.95
30.06.95
07.07.95
14.07.95
21.07.95
28.07.95
04.08.95
11.08.95
18.08.95
25.08.95
Calls
Calls
Adv.
Decl.
12656
17696
14390
10933
21611
17819
9071
18152
11159
13081
19594
9760
14215
9818
8550
17902
7779
12190
22844
7554
21092
19336
12741
16547
Calls A/D
0,89
1,80
1,68
0,61
2,78
1,46
0,40
2,40
0,53
0,68
1,54
0,59
Puts
Puts
Adv.
Decl.
9590
5647
6014
12571
4894
8627
15943
4748
14649
12100
6930
10368
13879
18431
13839
11735
20146
15531
9405
17237
11905
14522
20184
11238
Puts D/A
Bottom
Indicator
1,45
3,26
2,30
0,93
4,12
1,80
0,59
3,63
0,81
1,20
2,91
1,08
56
146
62
32
134
34
19
123
28
52
137
49
Page 17
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WallStreetCourier.com
475
425
375
325
275
225
175
125
75
25
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
-25
WallStreetCourier.com
50,00
40,00
30,00
20,00
10,00
BUY
0,00
-10,00
BOTTOM
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
-20,00
Any zero or minus reading indicates a bottom. Since this indicator was invented and
developed it only failed twice on a minus reading if compared to the Dow Jones. This was
due to panic selling on August 3rd and August 24th 1990 when Saddam invaded Kuwait.
Readings between 1 and 5 are also very reliable and indicate intermediate bottoms
in bull markets.
Readings above 600 are good breadth indicators and show you that a powerful
market move on the upside is to be expected.
www.wallstreetcourier.com
For your convenience there is a track record attached (377 kb) back to 1985 for you
to check the value of this indicator. Plot the numbers on a chart and compare it with
previous market action. Feel free to make use of our indicator if you find it useful. Feel also
free to publish it as long as you mention the source and call it the Global Futures Bottom
Indicator. Download the track record at http://www.wallstreetcourier.com/technician/timingindicators/track-record.htm
Cycles
Cycle analysis has a long history and is also part of technical analysis. All markets
appear to be subject to cyclical patterns and forces caused by economic influences and
countless other factors. Stock market movements seem to take place with cyclical regularity
and timing your trades to coincide with anticipated cyclical movements can be very
rewarding. Wall Street Courier offers some very reliable cycles for subscribers.
Page 19
www.wallstreetcourier.com
WallStreetCourier.com
1,50
1,45
1,40
1,35
1,30
1,25
1,20
1,15
1,10
1,05
1,00
0,95
0,90
0,85
0,80
SELL
98-08-14
98-09-11
98-10-09
98-11-06
98-12-04
99-01-01
99-01-29
99-02-26
99-03-26
99-04-23
99-05-21
99-06-18
99-07-16
99-08-13
99-09-10
99-10-08
99-11-05
99-12-03
99-12-31
00-01-28
00-02-25
00-03-24
00-04-21
00-05-19
00-06-16
00-07-14
00-08-11
00-09-08
00-10-06
00-11-03
00-12-01
00-12-29
01-01-26
01-02-23
01-03-23
01-04-20
01-05-18
01-06-15
BUY
Adv.
1521
927
1437
1309
1498
1823
1738
1243
1301
1778
1811
Decl.
1561
2150
1588
1776
1541
1269
1352
1814
1777
1294
1268
A/D
Upvol. Downvol. U/D Vol.
0,97 384035
657357
0,58
0,43 218634
997425
0,22
0,90 649006
904083
0,72
0,74 408501
682268
0,60
0,97 543321
615409
0,88
1,44 716273
610436
1,17
1,29 905813
547728
1,65
0,69 439011
722679
0,61
0,73 332607
682239
0,49
1,37 577414
605567
0,95
1,43 462680
657256
0,70
TRIN
10- MA
1,67
1,97
1,26
1,23
1,10
1,22
0,78
1,13
1,50
1,44
1,33
2,03
1,37
Page 20
1,45
96-01-02
96-02-27
96-04-23
96-06-18
96-08-13
96-10-08
96-12-03
97-01-28
97-03-25
97-05-20
97-07-15
97-09-09
97-11-04
97-12-30
98-02-24
98-04-21
98-06-16
98-08-11
98-10-06
98-12-01
99-01-26
99-03-23
99-05-18
99-07-13
99-09-07
99-11-02
99-12-28
00-02-22
00-04-18
00-06-13
00-08-08
00-10-03
00-11-28
01-01-23
01-03-20
01-05-15
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
28.06.01
29.06.01
02.07.01
03.07.01
1882
1938
1598
1592
1,30
1211
1141
1468
1349
WallStreetCourier.com
1,70
www.wallstreetcourier.com
1,55
1,70
1,09
1,18
877241
964950
694667
307258
423609
759013
399965
304648
2,07
1,27
1,74
1,01
0,75
1,34
0,63
1,17
WallStreetCourier.com
BUY
1,10
0,90
SELL
0,70
TRIN DAILY
BUY
1,20
0,95
0,70
SELL
Page 21
1,24
1,25
1,19
1,20
www.wallstreetcourier.com
Trend Indicator
Why are some traders more successful than others? There are probably as many
answers as there are traders out there. But you will undoubtedly agree that most of the
money is being made in a trend, especially as far as options and futures are concerned. In
options trading your biggest enemy by far is time. You need to have the patience and
discipline to wait for a trend in the market in order to succeed on the long run. The same
rule applies to any short-term oriented trader. The Global Futures Trend Index shows you
clearly when to enter the market. This index is computed by dividing the daily highs by the
sum of the daily highs and lows. A 10-week moving average is applied to smooth out the
swings. As long as the readings of this index stay above the 80%-level there is a solid
bullish trend in progress. Any weakness should be used to go long or to buy call options,
preferably of stocks which are in a clear uptrend, or stock index options. Readings below 20
indicate a bearish trend. Strong days should be used to short stocks which are already
weak, or to buy put options. As long as this indicator is in neutral territory don't do anything
unless you are a savvy stockpicker, insider or a long-term value investor.
WallStreetCourier.com
1,00
0,90
BULLISH TREND
0,80
0,70
0,60
0,50
0,40
0,30
0,20
0,10
BEARISH TREND
96-01-02
96-02-27
96-04-23
96-06-18
96-08-13
96-10-08
96-12-03
97-01-28
97-03-25
97-05-20
97-07-15
97-09-09
97-11-04
97-12-30
98-02-24
98-04-21
98-06-16
98-08-11
98-10-06
98-12-01
99-01-26
99-03-23
99-05-18
99-07-13
99-09-07
99-11-02
99-12-28
00-02-22
00-04-18
00-06-13
00-08-08
00-10-03
00-11-28
01-01-23
01-03-20
01-05-15
0,00
Page 22
www.wallstreetcourier.com
50
40
30
20
10
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
Page 23
www.wallstreetcourier.com
1,15
SELL
0,95
0,75
BUY
0,55
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,35
Call/Put Ratio
This indicator is calculated by dividing the daily or weekly volume of call options by
the daily or weekly volume of put options. Big call volume appears at market tops and big
put volume at bottoms. Only CBOE equity options or all CBOE options should be used for
this indicator. Call/put ratios of the indices like OEX and SPX are distorted and clouded by
arbitrage and hedging and do therefore not always reflect true investor sentiment. The chart
below shows you the weekly call/put ratio on a 4-week moving average to smooth out the
swings.
WallStreetCourier.com
2,50
2,25
SELL
2,00
1,75
1,50
1,25
BUY
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
1,00
Page 24
www.wallstreetcourier.com
SELL
2,50
2,00
BUY
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
1,50
40
35
30
25
20
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
15
Page 25
www.wallstreetcourier.com
WallStreetCourier.com
12000
10000
Bearish
Divergence
Bearish
Divergence
8000
SMART MONEY FLOW INDEX
98-01-02
98-01-30
98-02-27
98-03-27
98-04-24
98-05-22
98-06-19
98-07-17
98-08-14
98-09-11
98-10-09
98-11-06
98-12-04
99-01-01
99-01-29
99-02-26
99-03-26
99-04-23
99-05-21
99-06-18
99-07-16
99-08-13
99-09-10
99-10-08
99-11-05
99-12-03
99-12-31
00-01-28
00-02-25
00-03-24
00-04-21
00-05-19
00-06-16
00-07-14
00-08-11
00-09-08
00-10-06
00-11-03
00-12-01
00-12-29
01-01-26
01-02-23
01-03-23
01-04-20
01-05-18
01-06-15
6000
Bullish
Divergence
Page 26
www.wallstreetcourier.com
WallStreetCourier.com
80,00
70,00
60,00
50,00
40,00
30,00
20,00
10,00
0,00
-10,00
START BUYING
INTERMEDIATE BOTTOM
96-01-12
96-02-23
96-04-05
96-05-17
96-06-28
96-08-09
96-09-20
96-11-01
96-12-13
97-01-24
97-03-07
97-04-18
97-05-30
97-07-11
97-08-22
97-10-03
97-11-14
97-12-26
98-02-06
98-03-20
98-05-01
98-06-12
98-07-24
98-09-04
98-10-16
98-11-27
99-01-08
99-02-19
99-04-02
99-05-14
99-06-25
99-08-06
99-09-17
99-10-29
99-12-10
00-01-21
00-03-03
00-04-14
00-05-26
00-07-07
00-08-18
00-09-29
00-11-10
00-12-22
01-02-02
01-03-16
01-04-27
01-06-08
-20,00
Page 27
www.wallstreetcourier.com
1,40
SELL
1,20
1,00
BUY
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,80
Page 28
www.wallstreetcourier.com
WallStreetCourier.com
40,00
35,00
30,00
25,00
20,00
15,00
10,00
5,00
0,00
PANIC
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
-5,00
BUY
0,55
www.wallstreetcourier.com
SELL
0,50
0,45
0,40
BUY
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,35
Page 30
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,65
0,35
1,40
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,75
WallStreetCourier.com
www.wallstreetcourier.com
0,70
0,60
SELL
0,55
0,50
0,45
0,40
BUY
0,30
0,25
This indicator is calculated by simply adding the number of the weekly CBOE equity calls
and puts together and dividing the result by the weekly NYSE volume.
1,20
1,00
0,80
0,60
Page 31
www.wallstreetcourier.com
Program Trading
Program trading is the purchase or sale of at least 15 different stocks with a total
value of $1 million or more. Some of Wall Streets biggest names are the players in this
game and they are among others: Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, First Boston, Morgan
Stanley, Deutsche Bank Sec, and Nomura. There is a bullish tendency in the market
whenever the Buy/Sell Ratio of program traders rises above 1,20 on a 4-week moving
average. When program trading becomes excessive and accounts for more than about
25% of total volume on a 4-week moving average, the market became vulnerable in the
past.
WallStreetCourier.com
1,80
1,60
1,40
1,20
1,00
0,80
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,60
WallStreetCourier.com
32
26
20
14
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
Page 32
www.wallstreetcourier.com
WallStreetCourier.com
50
40
30
20
10
SP U1
114
112
110
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Calendar Spread
A good sentiment indicator in the past has been the Calendar Spread . This is the
premium spread of the two nearby S&P 500 futures contracts (for instance the difference
between the June SP and September SP contracts on a 5- day moving average). It shows if
futures traders are extremely bearish or bullish. When speculation peaked in June 2000
and everybody was bullish, this indicator was as high as 23!
Page 33
www.wallstreetcourier.com
23
19
15
11
01-07-18
01-04-25
01-05-23
01-06-20
01-01-31
01-02-28
01-03-28
00-11-08
00-12-06
01-01-03
00-07-19
00-08-16
00-09-13
00-10-11
00-04-26
00-05-24
00-06-21
00-02-02
00-03-01
00-03-29
99-11-10
99-12-08
00-01-05
99-08-18
99-09-15
99-10-13
99-04-28
99-05-26
99-06-23
99-07-21
99-02-03
99-03-03
99-03-31
99-01-06
WallStreetCourier.com
3000
2000
1000
02.01.2001
05.01.2001
10.01.2001
16.01.2001
19.01.2001
24.01.2001
29.01.2001
01.02.2001
06.02.2001
09.02.2001
14.02.2001
20.02.2001
23.02.2001
28.02.2001
05.03.2001
08.03.2001
13.03.2001
16.03.2001
21.03.2001
26.03.2001
29.03.2001
03.04.2001
06.04.2001
11.04.2001
17.04.2001
20.04.2001
25.04.2001
30.04.2001
03.05.2001
08.05.2001
11.05.2001
16.05.2001
21.05.2001
24.05.2001
30.05.2001
04.06.2001
07.06.2001
12.06.2001
15.06.2001
20.06.2001
25.06.2001
28.06.2001
-1000
Page 34
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May 01
Jan01
Mar 01
Nov.00
Jul.00
Sep.00
May00
Jan00
Mar00
Nov.99
Jul.99
Sep.99
Mar99
May99
Jan99
Nov.98
Jul.98
Sep.98
Mar98
May98
Jan98
Nov.97
Jul.97
Sep.97
May97
Jan97
Mar97
Nov.96
Jul.96
Sep.96
May96
Jan96
Mar96
Page 35
www.wallstreetcourier.com
WallStreetCourier.com
0,00045
0,0004
BUY
0,00035
0,0003
0,00025
0,0002
SELL
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
01-07-13
0,00015
Page 36
www.wallstreetcourier.com
0,00145
0,00125
0,00105
0,00085
0,00065
0,00045
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,00025
0,55
0,50
0,45
0,40
0,35
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,30
Page 37
www.wallstreetcourier.com
WallStreetCourier.com
0,65
0,6
0,55
0,5
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,45
www.wallstreetcourier.com
0,55
0,5
0,45
0,4
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,35
WallStreetCourier.com
1,80
1,60
SELL
1,40
1,20
1,00
BUY
31.10.2000
07.11.2000
14.11.2000
21.11.2000
29.11.2000
06.12.2000
13.12.2000
20.12.2000
28.12.2000
05.01.2001
12.01.2001
22.01.2001
29.01.2001
05.02.2001
12.02.2001
20.02.2001
27.02.2001
06.03.2001
13.03.2001
20.03.2001
27.03.2001
03.04.2001
10.04.2001
18.04.2001
25.04.2001
02.05.2001
09.05.2001
16.05.2001
23.05.2001
31.05.2001
07.06.2001
14.06.2001
21.06.2001
28.06.2001
06.07.2001
13.07.2001
20.07.2001
27.07.2001
03.08.2001
10.08.2001
17.08.2001
0,80
Page 39
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WallStreetCourier.com
0,95
0,90
BUY
0,85
0,80
0,75
0,70
0,65
SELL
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,60
Page 40
www.wallstreetcourier.com
WallStreetCourier.com
0,0145
0,0115
BULLISH
0,0085
0,0055
BEARISH
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,0025
WallStreetCourier.com
1,20
1,00
BULLISH
0,80
BEARISH
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,60
Page 41
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WallStreetCourier.com
1,90
1,50
BULLISH
1,10
BEARISH
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,70
Page 42
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WallStreetCourier.com
0,07
0,05
BEARISH
0,03
0,01
-0,01
-0,03
-0,05
-0,07
BULLISH
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
-0,09
Page 43
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Sentiment Indicators
Investor Sentiment
The principles of Contrarian Investing hold that when the vast majority of people
agree on anything, they are generally wrong. Otherwise no market would function because
there is simply no minority with money enough to make a majority rich. A true contrarian,
therefore, will first try to determine what the majority are doing and then will act in the
opposite direction. Market Vane, AAII and Investors Intelligence are all contrary opinion
indicators.
A unique feature of Market Vane's Bullish Consensus numbers is a weighting
formula applied to the various market letters. More weight is given to letters with a larger
following and less weight to those with fewer readers. Each week a poll of market letters is
taken to determine the degree of bullishness or bearishness among futures professionals.
The theory is that when a significant number of participants are bullish, they are already
positioned on the long side and there is little potential buying power left. If most participants
are bearish, selling pressure has reached an extreme and prices will reverse to the upside.
WallStreetCourier.com
80
SELL
60
40
BUY
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
01-07-13
20
www.wallstreetcourier.com
market's performance in the next six months. The chart below shows the number of bulls
divided by the number of bears. A 10-week moving average is applied to smooth out the
swings. High readings appear near market tops and low readings near bottoms.
WallStreetCourier.com
4,10
3,60
SELL
3,10
2,60
2,10
1,60
BUY
1,10
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,60
Since 1963, Investors Intelligence has been compiling data on the opinions of
publishers of market letters. They conduct a weekly poll of about 130 market newsletter
writers and calculate the percentage who are bullish, bearish or expecting a short-term
correction. The resulting index shows that the advisory services follow the trend of equity
prices by becoming most bullish near market tops and most bearish around market
bottoms.
WallStreetCourier.com
BULL/BEAR RATIO INVESTORS
2,40
10-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE
INTELLIGENCE
SELL
2,00
1,60
1,20
BUY
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
0,80
Page 45
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Short positions of Small Traders only. Significant changes in those numbers give you
an insight about prevailing sentiment..
The Long/Short Ratio of Small Traders. This chart is computed by dividing the long
and short positions of Small Traders. High readings indicate heavy buying by Small
Traders which is bearish.
Page 46
96-01-02
96-02-27
96-04-23
96-06-18
96-08-13
96-10-08
96-12-03
97-01-28
97-03-25
97-05-20
97-07-15
97-09-09
97-11-04
97-12-30
98-02-24
98-04-21
98-06-16
98-08-11
98-10-06
98-12-01
99-01-26
99-03-23
99-05-18
99-07-13
99-09-07
99-11-02
99-12-28
00-02-22
00-04-18
00-06-13
00-08-08
00-10-03
00-11-28
01-01-23
01-03-20
01-05-15
01-07-10
0,35
0,20
1,80
96-01-02
96-02-27
96-04-23
96-06-18
96-08-13
96-10-08
96-12-03
97-01-28
97-03-25
97-05-20
97-07-15
97-09-09
97-11-04
97-12-30
98-02-24
98-04-21
98-06-16
98-08-11
98-10-06
98-12-01
99-01-26
99-03-23
99-05-18
99-07-13
99-09-07
99-11-02
99-12-28
00-02-22
00-04-18
00-06-13
00-08-08
00-10-03
00-11-28
01-01-23
01-03-20
01-05-15
01-07-10
0,40
2,00
01-07-03
01-05-08
01-03-13
01-01-16
00-11-21
00-09-26
00-08-01
00-06-06
00-04-11
00-02-15
99-12-21
99-10-26
99-08-31
99-07-06
99-05-11
99-03-16
99-01-19
98-11-24
98-09-29
0,30
98-08-04
98-06-09
WallStreetCourier.com
98-04-14
0,70
98-02-17
97-12-23
97-10-28
97-09-02
97-07-08
0,00
97-05-13
97-03-18
97-01-21
96-11-26
0,60
10-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE
0,50
COMMERCIAL HEDGER
0,40
SMALL TRADER
0,20
0,10
LARGE SPECULATOR
WallStreetCourier.com
BUY
0,30
0,25
SELL
0,15
WallStreetCourier.com
1,60
SELL
1,40
1,20
1,00
BUY
0,80
0,60
Page 47
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
96-01-05
96-03-01
96-04-26
96-06-21
96-08-16
96-10-11
96-12-06
97-01-31
97-03-28
97-05-23
97-07-18
97-09-12
97-11-07
98-01-02
98-02-27
98-04-24
98-06-19
98-08-14
98-10-09
98-12-04
99-01-29
99-03-26
99-05-21
99-07-16
99-09-10
99-11-05
99-12-31
00-02-25
00-04-21
00-06-16
00-08-11
00-10-06
00-12-01
01-01-26
01-03-23
01-05-18
WallStreetCourier.com
12000
WallStreetCourier.com
1600
www.wallstreetcourier.com
Appendix
The enclosed charts of the indices have exactly the same time span as the charts in
our e-book. You will therefore easily be able you to verify the reliability of each indicator.
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
1400
1200
1000
800
600
Page 48
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Risk Statement
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS,
SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE
THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES
SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING
PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE
RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE
FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY
ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR
TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH
CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE
NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO
THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE
FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. TRADING IN COMMODITY FUTURES OR OPTIONS INVOLVES
SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS.
THIS RISK STATEMENT APPLIES TO ANY ILLUSTRATION OF PROFIT AND
LOSS CONTAINED WITHIN THIS PUBLICATION. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT
STOP LOSS ORDERS DO NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT LOSSES OR LOCK IN PROFITS.
DEPENDING UPON MARKET CONDITIONS, STOP LOSS ORDERS MAY BE
EXECUTED AT PRICES SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW OR ABOVE THE SPECIFIED STOP
PRICE.
Page 49