2

0
1
6

2017

2
0
1
7

1
tel. 02-2070-3114 www.nabo.go.kr

-.indd

31-970 0377-0 01179-10

2016-09-12 11:20:45

2017

2016. 9

2017




, ,

2017
.
: | 02) 788-3775 | mea@nabo.go.kr
(www.nabo.go.kr) .

2017

2016. 9

 222 3
,
(2016. 9. 12.) .

2012 2% .
2015~2016 ,
.
2017
2016 .

. , , ,
.
2017 3%
.
, ,
.

.

. 5(2016~2020) 5
(2011~2015) 3% 2% ,

.
.
2017
2017 2020 .

.
2016 9

<2017 >
2017 ,
2.7%


,


2016 2.8%p 2017 2.5%p
, 2016 0.1%p 2017 0.2%p

[GDP ]
(, %)
8

7.4

6.5

6
5

4.5

5.5

3.9

4
3

5.2

4.9

2.9

3.7
2.9

2.8
2.3

3.3
2.6 2.7 2.7

2
0.7

1
0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

: ,

vii

 2017 GDP 2016 4.0% 0.1%p 3.9%

GDP 2016 2017 2.7% , 2017
GDP
(
)
GDP (, %): (15) 2.2 (16) 1.3
(17) 1.2
[2017~2020 ]
(: %, , )

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.9

3.0

3.0

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.4

5.3

1.7

3.0

3.8

3.5

3.6

3.9

6.8

2.1

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.8

1.5

2.2

2.5

2.8

3.0

3.2

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.3

2.5

()

1,059

996

890

779

727

660

()

8.0

5.9

2.8

4.2

4.0

3.8

()

16.9

8.2

5.9

7.2

5.3

5.2

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.6

0.7

1.0

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.9

(3)

1.8

1.4

1.7

2.3

2.5

2.5

1,131

1,155

1,110

1,081

1,077

1,074

GDP

2.2

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.4

4.9

4.0

3.9

4.2

4.4

4.4

/ ()

: 1. 4 ,
2. 2016
: , ,

viii

< >
2016~2020 GDP 2.9%
,

GDP 2001~2007 4.9%
2011~2015 3.0% , 2016~2020
2.9%

1 GDP 2015 27,214 2018 31,744

3 2020 34,600
GDP(2016~2020 4.2%)
/ (2016 1,155 2020 1,074 )

5(2011~2015) GDP
3.0% , 5(2016~2020)
2.9%
5 (2016~2020) GDP 2.9%
, 0.1%p

, ,



(TFP) 1.3%p 5

5 (2016~2020) GDP 2.9%
5 ,

ix


GDP GDP GDP
()

< >
2017
2016(2.3%) 0.1%p 2.2%


, ,

2016~2020 2.3%
,


, ,

2017 , (6.8%)
4.7%p 2.1%
23 2016 2/4
2017

(8.25) .
2015 62016 3 24.3%
SOC (
8.2% 21.8)

 ,
, (
)

20162020 2.3%

2017
, SOC 6.0%

2017
2016 3.0%


,
, ,

,


2016~2020 2.4% 5
(2011~2015) 3.1%, (2004~2007) 6.6%

, , ,

xi

 2017 ( )
2015~2016 2 2.8%


,

, ,

2017 , 5.9%

2016~2020 2014
1.7% 3.2%

2017 2016
, 900

(6.1%) (2.5%) 100
1,096


2016 200
2016~2020 GDP 2015(7.7%)
2017 5.9%, 2020 3.8%

2017
,
30
2017 30(1.1%) 2016(29, 1.1%)
3.7%, 60.4%(OECD 15~64

xii

66.0%)
,
5

,

(, ): 2015 14.0(16.7%) 2016 15.8
(12.7%) 2017 17.5(10.7%)
2016~2020 30(1.1%) 2011
~2015 (42.2, 1.7%)
,
, ,

2017 2016(1.0%)
0.6%p 1.6%
2017 20% 2014 4/4
2

2015 12.2%, 2016 4.5%
, 2017
2.5%


20162020 1.6%
2016 1.0% 20172020 1.61.9%

GDP

xiii

 2017~2018

2017 (3 ) ,
2016( 1.4%) 1.7%
2016 1.0% 2017 1.6%


2017 3
,
2014 1.69%p 2016 17
0.49%p

20162020 (3 ) 2.1%
2016 1.4%, 2017 1.7% 20182020
2.3~2.5% 2%

2017 / ,
2016( 1,155) 45 1,110


S&P 2016 8
(A+) AA( 3)

20162020 / 1,099
.
5 810

xiv

 3.0%
/ 1,070

xv

/ vii

I. / 1
1. 1
. 1
. 2
. 4
. 5
2. 10
. 10
. 11
. 12
. 17

. 2017 / 19
1. 19
. 2017 19
. (2016~2020) 23
. 24
2. 29
. 2017 29
. 34

xvii

3. 40
. 2017 40
. 45
4. 49
. 2017 49
. 54
5. 59
. 2017 59
. 62
6. 69
. 2017 69
. 73
7. 77
. 2017 77
. 81
8. 83
. 2017 83
. 86
9. 90
. 2017 90
. 95

. / 99

. / 107
1. 107
. 107
. 109

xviii

2. 112
. 112
. 114
3. 116
. 116
. 118
4. 121
. 121
. 122
5. 124
. 124
. 127

xix

[ 1] (IMF, 2016.7 ) 1
[ 2] 9
[ 3] 12
[ 4] 2017~2020 20
[ 5] GDP 22
[ 6] GDP, , , 23
[ 7] 25
[ 8] 50
[ 9] 55
[ 10] () 59
[ 11] IMF WTO 60
[ 12] () 62
[ 13] 64
[ 14] 67
[ 15] 72
[ 16] 74
[ 17] GDP 100
[ 18] GDP 101
[ 19] 103
[ 20] 106
[ 21]

108

[ 22] 110
[ 23] 113
[ 24] 117
[ 25] 119
[ 26] 121
[ 27] 125

xx

[ 1] 2
[ 2] 3
[ 3] 6
[ 4] S&P 6
[ 5] World Bank IB 8
[ 6] IMF EIA 8
[ 7] GDP 10
[ 8] 11
[ 9] 13
[ 10] 13
[ 11] 17
[ 12] 17
[ 13] GDP 19
[ 14] 21
[ 15] 22
[ 16] 24
[ 17] 2017 30
[ 18] 31
[ 19] 31
[ 20] 32
[ 21] 32
[ 22] 33
[ 23] 34
[ 24] 34
[ 25] 34

xxi

[ 26] 60 35
[ 27] 35
[ 28] 36
[ 29] 36
[ 30] 37
[ 31] 37
[ 32] 38
[ 33] 38
[ 34] 2000 40
[ 35] 41
[ 36] 42
[ 37] 43
[ 38] 43
[ 39] 44
[ 40] 45
[ 41] 2000 46
[ 42] 46
[ 43] 47
[ 44] SOC 48
[ 45] 49
[ 46] 51
[ 47] 51
[ 48] BSI 52
[ 49] 53
[ 50] 53
[ 51] 54
[ 52] 56
[ 53] , , 60
[ 54] /(100) 61
[ 55] (, , ) 62

xxii

[ 56] () 63
[ 57] 64
[ 58] 68
[ 59] (GDP) 68
[ 60] 69
[ 61] 70
[ 62] 71
[ 63] 72
[ 64] 73
[ 65] GDP 74
[ 66] 74
[ 67] 77
[ 68] 79
[ 69] ( ) 80
[ 70] 80
[ 71] 81
[ 72] 2000 82
[ 73] GDP 83
[ 74] 84
[ 75] 85
[ 76] 85
[ 77] ( 3 ) 86
[ 78] 87
[ 79] 88
[ 80] 89
[ 81] 89
[ 82] / 90
[ 83] / 92
[ 84] CRB 93
[ 85] / 94

xxiii

[ 86] / 95
[ 87] 96
[ 88] 96
[ 89] 97
[ 90] GDP GDP 101
[ 91] GDP 102
[ 92] GDP 102
[ 93] 104
[ 94] 104
[ 95] 105
[ 96] 106
[ 97] 108
[ 98] S&P Case-Shiller 20 109
[ 99] 110
[ 100] 5 111
[ 101] (6 FOMC ) 112
[ 102] 114
[ 103] (GDP) 114
[ 104] 115
[ 105] 116
[ 106] 118
[ 107] 2017 119
[ 108] 119
[ 109] 122
[ 110] 124
[ 111] GDP 126
[ 112] (GDP %) 128
[ 113] GDP, , (IMF) 128
[ 114] GDP (IMF) 130

xxiv

[BOX 1] 14
[BOX 2] 1 GDP 26
[BOX 3] 39
[BOX 4] 57
[BOX 5] 65
[BOX 6] 75
[BOX 7] 120

xxv

I.

1.
.
2017 2016(3.1%) 3% (3.4%)
, ( EU)

(IMF) 2016 7 (
EU) 2016 2017
(2016 3.2%, 2017 3.5%) 0.1%p
[ 1] (IMF, 2016. 7 )
(: %, %p)

2015

2016

2017

2016

2017

(%p)

(%p)

3.1

3.1

3.4

0.1

0.1

1.9

1.9

1.8

0.1

0.2

2.4

2.2

2.5

0.2

0.0

1.7

1.6

1.4

0.1

0.2

0.5

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.2

2.2

1.7

1.3

0.2

0.9

4.0

4.1

4.6

0.0

0.0

6.9

6.6

6.2

0.1

0.0

7.6

7.4

7.4

0.1

0.1

3.7

1.2

1.0

0.6

0.2

3.8

3.3

0.5

0.5

0.5

4.8

4.8

5.1

0.0

0.0

: 5 , , , ,
: IMF, World Economic Outlook July 2016

1. 1

 2016 0.1%p, 2017 0.2%p

,
(2016 0.2%p, 2017 0.9%p)

, ,

[ 1]
6

(%)
5.4

16 4

16 7

5
4.2
4

1998-2007 : 4.2%
3.5

3.3

3.5

3.4
3.1

3.6

3.8

3.8

19

20

3.2
3.4

3.1

2
10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

: IMF, World Economic Outlook July 2016

.
2017 2016(2.6%) 3.9%

IMF 7 2016
4 (3.0%) 0.4%p
2.7%
2017
, 2 4 (3.8%)
0.1%p 3.9%

2 .

 2017
, ,


2000~2007 1.6 2013~2015
0.9




[ 2]

(%)

16
14

12.4

12
10
7.1

8
6
4

2.8

3.4

3.7

13

14

2.6

2.7

15

16

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.3

17

18

19

20

2
0
10

11

12

: IMF, World Economic Outlook July 2016

2017
2016
2015(0.3%) 2016(0.7%) 0%
2017 1% (1.6%)
2017 2016 (4.6%) 0.2%p
4.4%
2016

1. 3

.
2017 ,
, ,

,



(contagion
effect)
EU


,




,


( , )

4 .

 , , ,

, IS
, ,

.
(1)
2016 1 30
,
2016 , ,
,
2016 1 , , WTI 22.5, 26.4
, 26.6
2/4

2016 5
2014 8 889
6 , , WTI
47.2, 51.3, 51.2
2016 7 ,
,
,
2016 4/4 ,
, ,

1. 5

[ 3]
(/)

120

WTI

100
80
60
40
20

2016 2015
2015
2016
S&P 2015 253.1 , 2016 1
8 271.2
[ 4] S&P
450
400
350
300
250
200

: 1995.1.16.=100
:

6 .

 , 2016

2016
, 7

(2)
2017 50 , 2018
60
OPEC ,
,

2017 WTI, 54.1
55.5 , 2018 60

World Bank 2016 7
2017 53.2 2018 59.9, 2019 62.7, 2020 65.6

IMF 2016 7 2017
42.9, 2018 50.0 4 (2017 41.0
, 2018 44.5)


Baker Hughes ,
2016 5
316 8 406 ,

1. 7

[ 5] World Bank IB

[ 6] IMF EIA

(/)

(/)

70

61.6

60
50

54.8

59.9

61.3 62.7

65.9 65.6

IMF

60

EIA
50.0 51.8

50.8

53.2

50

44.6 43.0

40

40

30

30

20

42.9 42.9

20

10

10

0
2016

2017

2018

2019
2020
World Bank

0
2015

2016

2017

: 1) IB() WTI
2) IMF 3 (WTI, , ) , EIA WTI

: IMF, EIA,

2017
2017 10

(IEA) 2017 9,700
0.3% , 9,690
1.4%
2015~2016

1)
2017

1)
(DUC: Drilled But Uncompleted wells) 1,300~2,750 (
, , 2016. 7)

8 .


,
IMF (2016 4) 2020 , ,
2016 7.3%, 13.3%, 1.6%
OECD2) 10 ,


IMF , ,
2018
50%
,

[ 2]
(: /)

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

169.8

147.1

153.2

157.8

157.8

157.8

185.6

174.1

189.7

197.3

197.3

197.3

347.4

319.7

324.4

324.7

324.7

324.7

55.2

42.4

35.5

33.8

35.9

35.9

5,510.5

4,676.9

4,693.1

4,693.5

4,701.5

4,717.7

1,664.7

1,557.9

1,599.4

1,644.1

1,700.2

1,767.3

: IMF, World Economic Oulook 2016.4

2) OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024, 2015.7

1. 9

2.
.
2016


GDP (2001~2007)
4.9% (2011~2015) 3.0%
2016 GDP 3.0%
, 1/4 0.5% , 2/4 0.8%
2015 3/4(1.2%) 2014
2/4 8 0%
GDP 2016
2.7% , 2015
10.3%
() 1.3% ,
3.6%

[ 7] GDP

(%)

()

(%)

8.0

3.0

6.0

2.5

4.0

3.3
2.8

2.0

2.0
1.5

0.8 1.0
0.5
0.5

0.0
-2.0

0.0

-4.0
09

10

11

12

: ,

10 .

13

14

15

16

.
,

2015 11
(100.9)
2015 11~2016
3 2016 5 3

,


[ 8]

104

: 08.1
: 11.8

102
100

: 13.3

98

: 09.2

96
94
05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

, 2013 3()

2013

2. 11

 3() 2014 , 2015

2015 10(100.9) (
) 4

2016 5

[ 3] 3)

2001.7

2002.12

2005.4

2005.4

2008.1

2009.2

10

2009.2

2011.8()

2013.3()

11

2013.3()

.


2016 6 7
( 11.6%) , ,
,

(, %): (16.1/4)4.6 (2/4)6.1 (16.7)4.3%
(, ): (16.1/4)126(2/4)38(16.7)65
2015
3) 2016 6
9 , (9)
() 11 13 3

12 .

 ,
(, %): (16.1/4)14.8 (2/4)19.3 (16.7)21.4%
(, %): (16.1/4)7.1 (2/4)0.8 (16.7)12.3%
(, ) ,
2015 1
(, %): (16.1/4)13.3 (2/4)6.6
(16.7~8 )3.9%
(,%): (14)0.4 (15)12.8
(16.1~6 )5.4
[ 9]
(, %)

140

(, %)

()

12

100

60

20

-20 2008 I

2009 I

2010 I

2011 I

2012 I

2013 I

2014 I

2015 I

-60

2016 I

-4
-8

[ 10]

(, %)

10

-10

-20
2012.I

III

2013.I

III

2014.I

III

2015.I

III

2016.I 7~8

2. 13

[BOX 1]

2016 18 () 8.7%
(, %): (2015 ) 2.9% (2016 ) 3.0%

2015 2016

2015 2016
,

(, %)

2015
1/4

1.5
0.9
5.8

2/4

1.7
1.0
5.1

2016
3/4

2.2
5.6
6.7

4/4

3.3
7.5
3.9

1/4

2.2
9.6
4.5

2/4

3.2
10.6
2.6

*)

**)

13 2001 12016 6

*) , ( ), (),

(), (), , , , ,
, , , (M2).
. , , ,
( 0, 1) . 10%
2
**) ,
() .

14 .




2009 22011 8
.

2011 1

2. 15

 2015
2015 112016 3 .
2016 5

2015 11
, ,



6 7
,

16 .

.
,
, 2/4
0%
2016 28.8 (33.7)
, 7
2012 6(5.1 ) 5.9
0% ,


[ 11]

()
800

()

(%)
5

729

600
468

542

506

517
464

431

421

400

342

421
376

354

323

308 310

257

3
287 289 298

200

2
2012 I

III

2013 I

III

2014 I

III

2015 I

III

2016 I

[ 12]

(, %)

0
2012 I

III

2013 I

III

2014 I

III

2015 I

III

2016 I 7~8

2. 17

. 2017

1.
. 2017
2017
, 2016(2.7%) 2.7%

2017

IMF (2016.7) , 2017 3.4%
2016(3.1%) 0.3%p
2017 3.9% 2016(2.7%)

[ 13] GDP
(, %)
8

7.4

6.5

6
5

4.5

5.5

3.9

4
3

5.2

4.9

2.9

3.7
2.9

2.8
2.3

3.3
2.6 2.7 2.7

2
0.7

1
0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

: ,

1. 19

 2014~2015 2
()
2016 (1.7%) 2017
2016
, 2016

2017 ()
(),
0.7%
(2.9%)
(2.5%)
[ 4] 2017~2020
(: %, , )

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.9

3.0

3.0

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.4

5.3

1.7

3.0

3.8

3.5

3.6

3.9

6.8

2.1

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.8

1.5

2.2

2.5

2.8

3.0

3.2

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.3

2.5

1,059

996

890

779

727

660

()

8.0

5.9

2.8

4.2

4.0

3.8

()

16.9

8.2

5.9

7.2

5.3

5.2

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.6

0.7

1.0

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.9

(3)

1.8

1.4

1.7

2.3

2.5

2.5

1,131

1,155

1,110

1,081

1,077

1,074

GDP

2.2

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.4

4.9

4.0

3.9

4.2

4.4

4.4

()

/ ()

: , ,

20 . 2017

 2017 ()
2016

(2.8%p) 0.3%p
2.5%p
2012(0.7%p)
2015(3.6%p) 2016~2017
(2.2%) (2.0%)
2016 (0.1%p) 2017 0.2%p

2003
2010(1.5p), 2015(1.1%p),
2016(0.1%p )
[ 14]

(%p)

(%)

10

()

4
4
3
2

-2

0
10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

: ,

2017 GDP 3.9% 2016(4.0% ) 0.1%p

GDP 2016 2017 2.7% , 2017
GDP

1. 21


(-)
2000~2015 GDP 0.3,
0.6
GDP GDP GDP
2017
[ 15]
()

(/)

(%)

120

15

100

10

80

60

40

-5

20

-10
-15

0
96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

: ,

[ 5] GDP
(, %)

2016

2017

()

()

2.6

2.7

2.7

0.6

2.2

1.3

1.2

4.0

4.9

4.0

3.9

2012

2013

2014

2015

GDP

2.3

2.9

3.3

GDP

1.0

0.9

GDP

3.4

3.8

: GDP GDP GDP

: ,

22 . 2017

. (2016~2020)
2016~2020 GDP
2.9%
GDP 2001~2010 4.4% 2011~2015
3.0% , 2016~2020 2.9%
[ 6] GDP, , ,
( , %)

2001~2005 2006~2010 2011~2015 2016~2020

4.7

4.1

3.0

2.9

3.7

3.1

2.1

2.3

1.1

6.4

3.1

2.4

4.6

0.1

0.6

2.3

10.6

8.9

5.5

2.4

8.4

7.5

4.6

2.2

: , ,

GDP 2% (2.3%)
, 2016 (1.7%) 2%
(2.4%)
2006~2015 (0.2% )
2001~2005 4.6% 2.3%
2001~2010
10% 2016~2020 2.4%

,
,

1.0

1. 23

 2016~2020

(/) 1990
2.28, 2000~2008 1.27, 2010~2015 0.91
, 2016~2020 0.80
[ 16]
(IMF)

(%)

GDP

14

10
6
2
-2
-6
90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

: IMF,

.
2017 GDP 2.7%, 3.0%
0.3%p
2017


2017
,

IMF (
, )

24 . 2017

 GDP 2016 4.0%, 2017 3.9%

, 2016~2017 4.1%
GDP 2016 0.1%p, 2017 0.2%p

2016 GDP (1.3%)
GDP ( 2.7%, 2.8%)

2017 GDP( 1.2%, 1.1%)
GDP( 2.7%, 3.0%)
[ 7]
(, %, %p)

GDP

2016

2017

(A)

4.0

3.9

(B)

4.1

4.1

(BA)

0.1

0.2

: ,

1. 25

[BOX 2] 1 GDP
1 GDP 2006 2 9
2015 3
2015 1 GDP 3
2 3 ,
3

190 1 GDP(IMF ) ,
2015 3 25
11 5 , 9 4 ,
5 3
2 13
1 GDP 2
(2015 , )

5 (11)

4 (9)

(101,994), (80,675)

(49,866), (43,771)

(74,822), (55,805)

(43,603), (43,332)

(52,888), (52,114)

(42,390), (40,997)

(50,962)

(40,107)

3 (5)

2 (13)

(37,675), (37,045)
(36,060), (35,343)
(32,486)

(29,867), (29,363)
(27,214), (25,865)
(23,510), (22,288)
(20,732)

: IMF

1 2 3 8.2 (
, )
3 (2), (3),
(4), (5), (7)
(15), (13), (12),
(10)
2000 3
( )

26 . 2017

 1995 2, 2004 3
2015 2 , 2003 2, 2007
3 , 2012 2
3

GDP

()

(%)

87

90

11.2

86

88

5.0

18.6

87

92

5.1

7.7

87

96

5.8

94

06

12

6.5

4.1

87

94

4.1

7.1

90

95

4.4

5.4

87

91

9.4

4.5

92

03

11

5.3

7.9

90

03

13

5.3

89

04

15

4.7

9.9

94

07

11

3.7

1.0

90

95

7.9

11.4

90

03

13

4.2

90

03

13

3.4

03

07

6.7

20.9

00

10

10

5.0

87

92

6.3

12.4

8.2

5.8

: IMF,

1 GDP 2 3
GDP 5.8%
GDP (11.2%), (9.4%), (7.9%)
3 3~5
(18.6%), (20.9%), (12.4%) 2~5

1. 27

 1 GDP 2016~2020 ,
, ,
GDP GDP GDP 2016
4.0%, 2017 3.9%, 2018 4.2%, 2019~2020 4.4%
/ 2016 1,155 2020 1,074

1 GDP

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2.6
1.2
1,155
5,080

2.8
1.3
1,110
5,098

2.9
1.4
1,081
5,114

3.0
1.4
1,077
5,129

3.0
1.4
1,074
5,144

GDP(%)
GDP(%)
/ ()
()
: , ,

1 GDP 2018 3

1 GDP 2015 27,214 3 2018 31,744 3
(IMF 2020 3(30,317) )
1 GDP 3

2006~2015 GDP 5.4%
, 18.4% (2006 956, 2015 1,131)
1 GDP
1 GDP

()

IMF

40,000
34658
35,000
30,000
30317
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

: ,

28 . 2017

2.
. 2017
2016
,

2016 1/4 2/4
4.6% 6.1%
2015 2016
1 ( 1.4%)
, 2
2016 ,
,

7 2.6% ,
9.9%

2017 ,
2016(2.3%) 0.1%p 2.2%

2016 ,
2015~2016

, ,

2. 29

[ 17] 2017
(%)
5
4.4
4
2.9

1.9

1.9

12

13

2.2

2.3

2.2

15

16

17

1.7

0
10

11

14

: ,

2016 (
) 71.5% 2010
40~49 76.5% ,
60 67.5%
50

20~30 ,
40~50 , 60

40 ,
60

2010 5.8%p ,
60 7.4%p

30 . 2017

[ 18]
(%)
82

77.9

77.8

77.9

78

77.6
76.6

76.6

75.9

77.3

76.7
74.1

74

73.4

72.9
71.9

71.5

70

40~49
60

66
03

04

05

06

39
50~59

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15 16

[ 19]

(%)
85

2003

2008

2012

2015

50

60

80

75

70

65
30

40

2016 2017



2016 1/4 (, , )

2. 31

 1.7%

2016 7 89, 95 101

2017

[ 20]
(, %)

6.1

110

6.4

6.3

6.6

4.5

6.5
5.8

6
5

[ 21]

5.0
4.3

100

3.9

3.8
2.8

3
1.7

90

1.6

80

2015

2015 7
6

10

11

12 2016 2
1

2016

, ,
2015 2% , 2016 1/4
4.2%
2016 4)

2017

2016 8.1%, 2017
7.3%
4) 1:1:1 1:1.5:0.8 , 1.5
50% 0.8

32 . 2017

[ 22]
()

(, %)

320

5
4.2

300
3.0

2.8

3.1

2.5

2.4

280
1.8

260

1
0.2

0.1

240

0
2014

2015

2016

()

: ,

(, %) : (14)5.5 (15)4.6 (16.8)2.7
(, %) : (15.3/4)23.4 (15.4/4)21.1
(16.1/4)10.3 (16.2/4)6.0
2017

2017 33.9 2000
, 10 24% 5)

5) KB , , 2016.3

2. 33

[ 23]

(%)

(%)

()

48

[ 24]
()

(, %)

70

()

80

()

21.8

()

68

46

23.4

25

21.1

15.1

15

70

66

10.4

44
64

10.3
6.0

5.7
3.6

60

42

50

60

40

2015 1

2016 1

-0.4

62

-5
2014

2015

2016

: ,
: , , KB

.
2016~2020 ,
,

2016~2020 2.3% , 2017

2.2%, 2018 2.3%, 2019 2020 2.4%
2017 2.7% 2020 3.0%
,

[ 25]
(: %)
3.5
3.1
3.0
2.5

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.3
2.1

2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
15

16

17

18

19

: ,

34 . 2017

20

06~1011~1516~20

 60


2014 53 3 2015 33 7
, 2016 20 (2016.1/4 : 28.9, 2/4 : 28.9)
60

60 ,
2014 4/4 50~59

2016 2/4 60 18 9
(28 9) 65.4%
, 2016~2020
,

[ 26] 60

[ 27]

(: )

(: %)

800

62

700
41

500
400

56

55
49

48

600

65.4

70

( , )

300

60
45

50

37

200

40

30

30

300

100

20

200

10

100

0
2014

2015

()
50~59()
60 ()
60 ()

2016

-100

2015 1

15 - 19
40 - 49

11

20 - 29
50 - 59

2016 1

30 - 39
60

2. 35





2015 24.2%
, 30.1%
2010~2015 28.8%
92.7%

[ 28]

[ 29]

(%)

(, %)

12

150

10

145

140

135

()
1,200

()
/ ()

21.7

900

130

125

120
2012

2013

2014

2015

()

17.2

18

16.2
830

300

22

19.1

18.3
600

24.2

494

(%
26

602

596

11

12

952

697

14

2016

()

10

0
10

13

14

15

: . ,

2016
6)

6) 2016 2
, 5

36 . 2017




[ 30]

[ 31]

(: %)

100%

90%

37.6

80%

45
23.1

28.3

38.9

40

46.8

39.5

70%
60%
50%

36.8

35.7

35

40%

30

76.9

62.4

30%

53.2

71.7

25

20%
10%

26.5

23.6

20

0%

2014
2015

2016 2

2015

2015

2016.3

2016 2

2016 4 7) 60

60
82.0%(2015 ) 51.1%

7) 2016 4 25 3
. 60 ( (50
70%), (1.5 1.0%) ), 45~50
,
. 3 2025
21 10

2. 37

[ 32]
30

4.7 7.1

26.9

61.4

[ 33]
(%)
80

30~39

15.9

38.9

38.3

6.8

67.8

70
60

40~49

24.8

38.5

30.7

5.9

50
40

50~59

26.6

35.1

32.3

6.0

36.6

3.6

80%

100%

35.1

50.0

51.4

57.6

55.4

39.3

30
20

60

41.8

18.0

10
0

0%

20%

40%

60%

OECD

: , 2015 , OECD, Pension at a glance 2015

OECD8) , 9)
10)

11)
39.3% OECD 57.5%

,

8) Pension at a glance 2015, 2015.12

9) 50%
10) OECD 65 12.4%( 11.3%),
49.6%( 14.6%), 33.5%, 27.0%
11)

38 . 2017

[BOX 3]

(1~2) 60

2010 16.2% 2015
24.2%

2010 2015 (%p) : 1 13.1, 2 10.0, 3 9.1, 4
8.4, 5 6.5
60 2010 12.1%p 32.8%

2010 , 2015
60 2015 7.0%
12.8%



(: %)

(: %)

30

27.9

30

25.1

25.3

24.8

25

22.6

20

17.9

16.9

15.7

15

20

16.1

12.0

25.6

25.0

15

17.1

17.0

17.9

12.8

11.7

10.2

10

23.8

23.6

25

10

0
1
2010

2
2011

3
2012

2013

2014

0
30

30~40 40~50 50~60

60

2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

: ,

2. 39

3.
. 2017
2016
10.2% 2000 2001 10.5%

20042012 ( 0.7%)
20132016 4.4%

2013
[ 34] 2000

2015

2016 1/4 22.2%,
7.6%

40 . 2017




, 6
[ 35]

2016

2016 6.8% 2015(3.9%) 2.9%p

. 2000 (2001
14.8% )
3.4% , 31.1%

2015 (91.3, 69.9% )
2016 2016

3. 41

 , (
) , SOC
9.2% SOC
2016

2017 ,

2016(6.8%) 4.7%p 2.1%

() 23
2016 2/4 2017

[ 36]

: ,

2017

2016 8 25

42 . 2017

 2015 62016 3 24.3%

: (15.6)100.1 (16.3
) 124.4
[ 37]

2017
2016
8.3% : (15.3/4)83.6% (4/4)45.9% (16.1/4)16.0%
(2/4)32.6%
[ 38]

: ,

3. 43

 2016 SOC 9.2%

. 2015
98.4% , 2014
27.8% 2015 40.0%
2017 SOC (
8.2% 21.8) 2016
2017
[ 39]

,



. (
) 2015 2/4

44 . 2017

[ 40]

:
: ,

.
20162020

2000 20012012
1.3%
(2003 8.8%)
4(20042007) 0.9%
20162020 2.3%
,


2016 6.8% 2017
2.1%

3. 45

[ 41] 2000

[ 42]

20182020 ,
(1.3%) 2018
1.2%, 2019 0.8%, 2020 0.6%

8.25 2017

46 . 2017

 8.25
( )






2000
2006

2003 10.29 2005 , 3
, 2005 8.31 2
, 2006 3.30 (DTI)

[ 43]

SOC

3. 47

 5
, 2013 SOC
5.76.8%
2016~2020 6.0%
SOC


SOC
[ 44] SOC

: 2012-2016 2012 2012-2016 SOC

: , ,

,
2015 3/4

48 . 2017

[ 45]

4.
. 2017
2016




2016 3.6% : (16.1/4)4.5%
(2/4)2.7%
(, %): (16.1/4)11.2 (2/4)7.0,
(16.1/4)10.4 (2/4)5.4
(%): (16.1/4)73.2 (2/4)72.2 (7)73.8

4. 49

[ 8]
(: , %)

2014
()

2015

6.0

5.3

()

5.0

2.1

7.7

12.5

()

()

1/4

2/4

2016
3/4

5.8

5.1

6.7

(0.5)

(0.8)

(1.8)

7.2
2.8
(0.1) (2.9)
2.7
9.3
(1.5)
(9.3)

4/4

1/4

2/4

4.5

2.7

(0.5) (7.4)

(2.8)

3.9

3.6 4.4 11.2 7.0

(0.8) (3.0) (6.4)
(1.9)
14.1
24.0
10.4
5.4
(3.7)
(7.4) (9.4) (6.4)

:
:

,
, , ,

(, %): (2/4)6.6 (7)10.3 (8)2.6

, ,



,

50 . 2017

[ 46]
(%)

(, %)

90

40
()

()

()

30
85
20
78.0
80

10

0
04. I

05. I

06. I

07. I

08. I

09. I

10. I

11. I

12. I

13. I

14. I

15. I

16. I

75

-10
70
-20

-30

65

: ,

[ 47]
(%)

20

15
10
5
0
2015. 1

10

2016. 1

-5
-10
-15

4. 51

[ 48] BSI
110

105

100
97
95

90

85

80
2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017 3.0%

(, %): (13) 1.9 (14)0.3 (15)2.4
(%): (13) 4.7 (14) 4.3 (15) 5.2
,
, , ,
2017

, , 2017

,

52 . 2017



(2016 6 , %): (15) 0.4 (16)
0.9 (17) 1.6
[ 49]
(,%)

20

()

()

()

()

15
10
6.7
5.3

4.5

5.6
4.1

5.1

4.7 5.3

4.3 4.4

13

14

5.2 5.4

0
10

11

12

15

-5
-10

: ,

[ 50]
(,%)

20

18.2

15

10

9.9

3.1
-0.2

3.3

0.3

0
2014
-5

2015

2016

2017

-2.6

-10

-7.9

: World Semiconductor Trade Statistics

4. 53

.
2016~2020 2.4% 5(2011~2015
, 3.1%)
5

(2004~2007 )
6.6% 5(2011~2015) 3.1%: 2012 0.1%, 2013
0.8%
[ 51]
(,%)

8
6.6

7
6
5
3.8

4
3.0

3.5

3.6

3.1
2.4

2
1
0
2016

-1
-2

2017

2018

2019

2020

2004-072011-15 2016-20

-1.7

-3

, , ,


2011 48.9% 2015
46.9% 43.4% 45.7%

IT ,
.

54 . 2017

 (12) 22.0% (14) 20.8% (15)

20.2%
,
: 2011 12.6%(16.0
) 2015 14.6%(20.6)
2005 52.4%
2009 44.0%

2005 39.1% 2009 46.4%
2010 41.8%
2015 45.7%
[ 9]
(: , %)

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

62.2
(48.9)
10.3
(8.1)
5.3
(4.2)
27.2
(21.4)
8.7
(6.9)
55.2
(43.4)
16.0
(12.6)
8.3
(6.6)
10.3
(8.1)
5.1
(4.0)
127.3
(100)

61.5
(48.3)
9.6
(7.5)
5.6
(4.4)
28.1
(22.0)
8.1
(6.4)
56.3
(44.2)
16.4
(12.9)
9.6
(7.6)
10.5
(8.3)
5.2
(4.1)
127.4
(100)

59.8
(47.3)
9.7
(7.7)
5.5
(4.3)
26.4
(20.9)
8.0
(6.3)
56.7
(44.8)
16.9
(13.4)
9.5
(7.5)
11.0
(8.7)
5.6
(4.5)
126.4
(100)

64.3
(48.0)
11.2
(8.4)
5.2
(3.9)
27.9
(20.8)
9.3
(6.9)
59.3
(44.3)
17.6
(13.1)
9.6
(7.2)
11.1
(8.3)
6.0
(4.5)
134.0
(100)

66.2
(46.9)
11.8
(8.4)
4.8
(3.4)
28.6
(20.2)
9.8
(7.0)
64.5
(45.7)
20.6
(14.6)
9.7
(6.9)
11.8
(8.4)
6.3
(4.5)
141.1
(100)

: ( )
:

4. 55


, ,

[ 52]
54

(%)

(%)
()

()

52

48
46

50

44

48
42
46
40
44
38

42

36

40
38

34
2005

2006

2007

56 . 2017

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

[BOX 4]

GDP

GDP ( ,%p): 1991. 1/4 ~ 2000 4/4
3.1 2001. 1/4 ~ 2010 4/4 1.4 2011. 1/4 ~ 2015. 4/4 0.4
( ,%p): 1991. 1/4 ~ 2000 4/4
15.9 2001. 1/4 ~ 2010 4/4 5.5 2011. 1/4 ~ 2015. 4/4 4.3



: 1991. 1/4 ~ 2000 4/4 5.1 2001. 1/4 ~ 2010
4/4 4.0 2011. 1/4 ~ 2015. 4/4 9.7, (1971~2015) 4.8




(: %p)

(/)

1971 ~ 1980

18.1

3.5

5.1

1981 ~ 1990

4.9

1.8

2.7

1991 ~ 2000

15.9

3.1

5.1

2001 ~ 2010

5.5

1.4

4.0

2011 ~ 2015

4.3

0.4

9.7

11.9

2.4

4.8

:
:

4. 57


50

(%)

40

GDP

30
20
10
0
1Q 70

1Q 75

1Q 80

1Q 85

1Q 90

1Q 95

1Q 00

1Q 05

1Q 10

1Q 15

-10
-20
-30
-40
-50

: 1) GDP = (GDPGDP)/GDPx100,
= ()/x100,
HP
2)
()
:

58 . 2017

5.
. 2017
2017 (, )
2015~2016 2 2.8%
2.8% 5,087 , 5.9% 4,240
, 2016 100 847

2017 9,327
2011~2014 4 1
[ 10] ()
( , %)

2014

2015

2016

2017

2.3

8.0

5.9

2.8

1.9

16.9

8.2

5.9

()

472

903

947

847

: ,

2017 2016

IMF (2016 7) 2016
3.1% 2017 3.4%, 2.7% 3.9%

( EU)
IMF 2016 4
2016 0.4%p 2017 0.1%p
WTO (2016 4) 2016
2.8% 2017 3.6% 0.8%p
,
,

5. 59

[ 11] IMF WTO

( , %)

2015

IMF
2016

2017

2015

WTO
2016

2017

3.1
2.6
3.4
1.7
4.3
0.5

3.1
2.7
2.5
3.8
3.4
3.0

3.4
3.9
3.5
3.9
4.1
3.7

2.4
2.8
2.6
3.3
4.5
0.2

2.4
2.8
2.9
2.8
3.3
1.8

2.7
3.6
3.8
3.3
4.1
3.1

: IMF, WTO

2017 , ,

2017 2016 40 2017 50
20% ,
(2016 7.0% 2017 1.6%)
[ 53] , ,
(, %)
10

5
2.0
0

-5
-8.6
-10
-10.3
-15
2013

III

2014

III

2015

III

2016

: ,

,
60 . 2017


/ 2016 1 118.1 8 101.3
14.2% , / 7.5%
/(100) 7% (
)
,


, , ,
2015 1 (100) 2016 7
97.2
117.2
17% , 95.3
3
2015 1


[ 54] /(100)
/(100)

()

(%)

1600

40
30

1400
20
1200

10
0

1000
-10
800

-20
2010 I

2011 I

2012 I

2013 I

2014 I

2015 I

2016 I

: ,

5. 61

[ 55] (, , )
Korea

Japan

China

120
115
110
105
100
95
90
2015

2016

: BIS

( ) 2016 1.5% 2017 2.2% ,

1.9% 2.0%
2017 2016

[ 12] ()
( , %)

2014

2015

2016

2017

2.0

0.8

1.5

2.2

1.5

3.2

1.9

2.0

: ,

.
2016~2020
, 1.7%,
2.4%

62 . 2017

 2014
,

,
, ,

,

,





2008 ,


[ 56] ()
(, %)

20

15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

: , IMF,

5. 63

[ 13]
( )

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

8.0

5.9

2.8

4.2

4.0

3.8

0.8

1.5

2.2

2.5

2.8

3.0

: , ,

GDP 2001~2005
3.5%p 2011~2015 2.8%p
, 2016~2020 1%
[ 57]
(%p)

5
4

3.5

3.6
2.8

2
1.1
1
0
01~05

06~10

: , IMF,

64 . 2017

11~15

16~20

[BOX 5]




,

,

(, , )

(Antidumping),
(Countervailing), (Safeguard)
, 2015
(Initiation) 230, 30, 17

(Measure)
2014 236 157

(Initiation)

(Measure)

2011

165

25

12

99

11

2012

208

23

24

120

10

2013

286

33

18

161

13

2014

236

45

23

157

12

14

2015

230

30

17

: WTO

5. 65

 2016 7 , ,
179( 132, 47)
125, 7, 47
69%

2016 7
2015 12

179
175

125
106

7
8

47
61

32 ,
3 36.8% 66

2016 7

179

32

23

11

11

10

10

49

2015 12

175

26

19

11

11

15

11

10

35

87 , (48), (14)
. / 19 ,
25
(2016 7 )
100

87

80
60

48

40
20
0

66 . 2017

14

 2017
, (900
)

(6.1%) (2.5%) 100
1,096
2016 2017 200



/ : (14)1,053 (15)1,132 (16 )1,155 (17 )1,110


[ 14]
( )

2014

2015

2016()

2017()

844

1,059

996

890

889

1,203

1,207

1,096

: ,

2016~2020

( )
2020 890






5. 67



[ 58]

()
0

-50

-100

-150

-200
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

: 2016 1~6
: ,

2016~2020 (GDP) 2015

[ 59] (GDP)
()

(,%)

/GDP

()

1200

1000

800

600

400
12

13

14

15

: ,

68 . 2017

16

17

18

19

20

 GDP
2015 7.7%
2020 3.8%
(GDP) (%): (13)6.2 (14)6.0 (15)7.7 (16)7.1
(17)5.9 (18)4.9 (19)4.4 (20)3.8

6.
. 2017
2016


[ 60]
(, )

900

700

500

300

100

-100

2013. I

II

III

IV

2014. I

II

III

IV

2015. I

II

III

IV

2016. I

II

-300

29(1.1%),
3.7%

6. 69


(, ): (1/4)12.6 (2/4)3.8
(7)6.5
(, ): (1/4)9.6 (2/4)6.8
(7)1.0
(, ): (1/4)9.3 (2/4)
18.5 (7)7.8
,
(17.0)

[ 61]
[ ]

[ ]

(, )
(, %p)

100

1.4

80
0.9

60
40

0.4

20
-0.1

0
2015. 1/4

2/4

3/4

4/4

2016. 1/4

2015. 1/4

2/4

3/4

4/4

2016. 1/4

2/4

2/4

-20
-0.6

-40
-1.1

-60

2017 ,
, 30

3.7%( 4.0%, 3.3%), 60.4%(OECD 15~64
66.0%)


16 2.3% 17 2.2%, 16 6.8% 17 2.1%

70 . 2017


5

,



(, %, )12): 14 16.6(1,608) 15
6.8(1,323) 16. 1~6 21.5(811)
[ 62]
(, )

800

729

(50)

700
600
517
464

500

422

400

376

354

357

308

300

236

249

226

287

289

244

213

200

310

199

180

163

165

100
0

541

2014.I

419

II

407

III

391

IV

369

2015.I

288

II

319

III

304

IV

263

2016.I

271

II

12) , 2016 7 ,

6. 71

[ 63]
(, )

50
19
0
14. I
-50

II
-22

III
-3

IV

15. I

II

III

IV

16. I

II

-54
-88

-100

-150

-103

-114
-140

-200

-189

-211

-250

[ 15]
(: , )

2012

()

2013

2014

2015

2016

38,612 41,566 43,500 46,832 57,478

(5 1,228)
(666)
(1,089)

13,250 13,933 15,817 17,899 19,716

4,110

5,084

5,906

6,102

6,904

13,615 17,340 20,845 25,961 28,208

4,394

5,062

5,570 18,339 19,148

(2,733)
(3,136)
(410)
(9,297)
(1,941)
(1 4,500)

(1,000)
25,069 29,234 28,448 24,634 26,342 (3,273)
(56.4) (64.6) (66.1) (65.0) (69.9) (3,571)
99,050 112,220 120,087 139,766 157,796

:
: ,

72 . 2017

.
2016~2020 30(1.1%)
2011~2015 (42.2, 1.7%)
2017 3.7% 2018~19 3.5%,
2020 3.6% 3.6%

2019 63%
(%): (13) 50.2 (14) 51.3 (15) 51.8
2017 60.4% 2020 60.8%
60.6%
,
,


,

(, ): 2015 14.0(16.7%) 2016 15.8
(12.7%) 2017 17.5(10.7%)
[ 64]
(, %)

(,)

2.0

450

1.7

400
1.6

350

422
1.2

1.2

1.1
285

1.1

295

1.2

1.1

310

305

1.1

1.1

300
250

324
300

299

200

0.8
150
100

0.4

50
0

0.0
2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2004-07

2011-15

2016-20

6. 73

[ 16]
(: %)

2016

3.7

62.7

1.1

2017

3.7

62.8

1.1

2018

3.5

62.9

1.2

2019

3.5

63.0

1.1

2020

3.6

63.1

1.1

2004~2007

3.5

61.9

1.4

2011~2015

3.4

61.8

1.7

2016~2020

3.4

62.9

1.1

[ 65] GDP

: ,

[ 66]
[ ]

[ ]
()

75

(%)

(%)

()

52

20

17.5

()

15.8

74
51

15

14.0
11.2

73
50

10

49

12.0

9.9
8.8

72

71

70

48
2011

2012

2013

: ,

74 . 2017

2014

2015

0
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

[BOX 6]



()
()

E , Y ,

() 1980
5 (2011~2015) 1.2%
*)

2011~2015 1.7%,
2.9%
5 1.1%
2.8%, 1.7%
2.6% 5
() 1.7%
2.8% 5


(: %)

1971~1980

3.5
2.8
1.6
1.2
1.7
1.1

5.3
6.7
5.0
3.1
1.2
1.7

8.8
9.4
6.5
4.3
2.9
2.8

1981~1990
1991~2000
2001~2010
2011~2015
2016~2020

: 2016~2020
:
*) , 5
0.7%

6. 75


14

(%)

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1971

1975

1979

1983

-2
-4
:

76 . 2017

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

2007

2011

2015

7.
. 2017
2016

1.3%
8 0.4%
(, %): (16.1) 0.8 (2) 1.3 (6) 0.8
(8) 0.4
() 1.6%1.8%

(18 , %): (15) 2.1 (16) 1.7

2016
1.0%
[ 67]

:
:

7. 77

 1.5%

: 8 43.6/, 21.5%
(, %): (16.1)6.3 (6)4.9 (8)7.1

, 2/4 /

/ (): (16.1) 1,202 (6) 1,171 (8) 1,112
79

19.4% ( ) 79
0.4%p
, 2

2017 2016(1.0%)
0.6%p 1.6%
2017 20% 2014 4/4
2

2015 12.2%, 2016 4.5%
, 2017
2.5%
2016 2017 1.5%

2016 , 2017

78 . 2017

[ 68]

: 2015 ,
: ,

2017

, 2017 / 3.9%

,

(2.05%)

, 2017

2010 2016
2016 8
2.7%(KB ) .
12 2017

,
.

7. 79

 ,

[ 69] ( )

(, , %): (12) 54.8 (14)

65.7 (16.8) 74.5
(%): (12) 39.7 (14) 43.2
[ 70]

80 . 2017

.
20162020 1.6%

2017 1.6%, 2018 1.8% 20192020
1.8~1.9%
[ 71]

2008, 2009
20002007 4.6% 20112015 3.0%
3.3% 1.9%

5
(20162020) 1.6% 5(2011
2015) (1.9%) 0.3%p
. 2.9% 5
3.0%

7. 81

[ 72] 2000

: ,

, 20172018
, 20192020 60

(2016.7) 2016 43.0, 2017 53.2,
2018 59.9, 2019 62.7, 2020 65.6 . EIU(
) 2017 53, 2018 65
2020 60
2018

,
20172018 / 6.4%(2016
1,155 2018 1,081)

, GDP

82 . 2017

 5 0.1% GDP

[ 73] GDP

: ,

8.
. 2017
(3 ) 2016
2015 12
2016
3 (%): (16.1.4) 1.63 (8.31) 1.31
(16 1.29),
1 2 , (6.9) (6.23
) 6
2016 ,
,
2

,

8. 83

[ 74]

2016 (3 ) 1.4%
2016 12 ,

, 9 (3 ) 1.3%

1.0% 2017 1.6%

2017 (3 ) 1.7%
2016 0.3%p
2016 1.0% 2017 1.6%


2017 3
,
20152016

(3 ) (3 ) (, %p):
(12) 2.75 (13) 2.25 (14) 1.69 (15) 0.77 (16.17) 0.49
84 . 2017

[ 75]

: , IMF(, 2016.7.16.)

2015

[ 76]

: ,

8. 85

.
20162020 (3 )

20162020 , 2.1%
2016 1.4% 2017 1.7%
20182020 2.32.5% 2%


(17) 2.7 (20) 3.0
(17) 1.6 (20) 1.9
2018 2%

[ 77] ( 3 )

: ,

86 . 2017

[ 78]

2015
12 2016

,


6 2016
2, 2017 3, 2018 3 .
2018 2%p

8. 87

[ 79]
(%)

4.0

2015. 12

3.5

2016. 3

3.5
3.3

2016. 6
3.0

3.0

2.4

2.5

1.9

2.0

3.3

3.0

2.4

1.5
1.5
0.9

1.0
0.5
0.0

0.4

1.6

0.9

0.4
2015

2016

2017

2018

: FRB

2013 .
2013 5%

20172020 3.5% ,
GDP 2016(39.3%)
40.440.9%


2011 2012
. 2012 26.1%
2015 31.1% .

88 . 2017

[ 80]

[ 81]

: ,

8. 89

9.
. 2017
/ 2016 3

2015 12
,

, , ,
,

IMF , 2
( )
/ : (16 ) 1,172 (3.2) 1,241
[ 82] /

2016 3

90 . 2017


/
56 , (6.23
) ,
, S&P (8.8, AAAA)
, 8 1,0951,122

2016 /
1,155 24


2016 996
S&P (
, , )


CDS
82bp(2.11)

(5) CDS(bp): (15.1.1) 54 (16.1.1) 60
(2.11) 82 (8.31) 43
2015 12
2016 6

2016 7 13 (IIF)
, ECB
2016 551 (333)
13).

13) , IIF, Brexit , 29 July, 2016

9. 91


8 (%): ()
8.1, () 10.9, () 13.6, () 6.7

2017
1,110
1,155 45(4.0%)


2016 8 100

[ 83] /

: ,

2017


, ,

. 2

92 . 2017


2016 2 8 (%): ()
71.7%, (CRB) 25.2%
2017 20%
2016 4.7% 2017 4.4% (EIU)

/
,
[ 84] CRB

: CRB , , 21
:

9. 93

 2017 /
2016 12 6

[ 85] /

: 15
:

2017 3 ,
,

, ,




2017

94 . 2017

.
20162020 / ,

2017 2016( 1,155) 4.0% 1,110
2018 1,081, 2019 1,077, 2020 1,074

[ 86] /

2.7% 2020 3.0%
.
,


.

9. 95

[ 87]

[ 88]

: 4/4
: , IMF(, 2016.7.16.)

/ 1,070
, /
2000

20052007 3 970

96 . 2017



() : (11) 580 (15) 1,250
,
,
[ 89]

: ,

( )

EU ,
1979 30 10%
, G2(, )

9. 97

,
1970 2020

, , (Total
Factor Productivity)


,

5(2011~2015) GDP
3.0% , 5(2016~2020)
2.9%
5(2011~2015) GDP 3.0%
0.6%p, 1.0%p,
1.4%p
5(2016~2020) GDP 2.9%
, 0.1%p

, ,

1.3%p 5

. 99

[ 17] GDP
(: %, %p)

GDP

1971~1980

9.3

2.0

6.4

0.9

1981~1990

9.9

1.7

4.6

3.5

1991~2000

7.0

0.6

3.9

2.5

2001~2010

4.4

0.0

2.0

2.4

2011~2015

3.0

0.6

1.0

1.4

2016~2020

2.9

0.1

1.4

1.3

: 1)
2) 2015 ,
:

5 (2011~2015) GDP 3.0%

, 0.5%p, 1.4%p,
1.3%p
GDP
(1.0%p)

, (0.6%p) (0.5%p)

(1.4%p) (1.2%p)
2001~2010
,
0.9%p, 0.6%p

5 (2016~2020) GDP 2.9%

5 ,

100 .

[ 18] GDP
(: %, %p)

GDP

9.8
9.4
6.7
4.5
3.0
2.9

2.2
1.6
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.3

1971~1980
1981~1990
1991~2000
2001~2010
2011~2015
2016~2020

6.4
4.6
3.9
2.0
1.4
1.3

1.1
3.3
2.3
2.2
1.2
1.3

: 1)
2) 2015 ,
:

[ 90] GDP GDP

20

(,%)

15

10

0
1971

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

2007

2011

2015

-5

-10

GDP GDP
GDP14) 5 ()

14) GDP GDP , = (GDP

GDP)/GDP100 . (+) ,
()

. 101

[ 91] GDP
8

(%)

6
4
2
0
1Q 70

1Q 74

1Q 78

1Q 82

1Q 86

1Q 90

1Q 94

1Q 98

1Q 02

1Q 06

1Q 10

1Q 14

-2
-4
-6
-8
-10

: 1)
2) 2016. 6. 30 10 2011.8,
2013.3 , 11
: ,

[ 92] GDP
3.0

(%)

2.0

1.0

0.0
2000

2002

2004

-1.0

-2.0

-3.0

102 .

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

 2011~2015 2011 0.8% 2013 0.2%

, 2014 0.3% 2015 0.1%

GDP 2017 () 0.1%

2016~2020 0.2% 5

[ 19]
(: , %)

1971~1980
1981~1990
1991~2000
2001~2010
2011~2015
2016~2020

3.4
2.8
1.0
0.1
1.1
0.2

54.0
54.9
51.8
47.8
43.8
42.4

3.4
2.4
1.6
1.2
1.2
1.0

58.8
58.1
61.4
61.6
61.5
62.9

4.1
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.6

: 1)
2) 2015 ,
: ,

, , ,
15)
1.1%(30) 5 1.7%(42
)
,
,
15) = (365/7), =
(1)

. 103


(, %): 2011~2015 3.4 2016~2020 3.6
(, %): 2011~2015 1.2 2016~2020 1.0
(): 2011~2015 43.8 2016~2020 42.4

5
(%): 2011~2015 61.5 2016~2020 62.9
[ 93]
8

(%)

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

[ 94]
60

()

55

50

45

40

35

30
1970

1975

104 .

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

[ 95]
110 (2010=100)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2016~2020 3.2% 5
3.5% 0.3%p
(++)
()
(%): (1980) 1.9 (1990) 3.0 (2001~2010) 4.0
(2011~2015) 4.3

5 2%
(%): (1990) 6.0 (2001~2010) 3.2
(2011~2015) 2.2
2012~2013
0.1%, 0.8%
2.4%, 3.1%
5 2.3%

. 105

[ 20]
(: %)

1971~1980
1981~1990
1991~2000
2001~2010
2011~2015

16.0
11.4
9.8
5.0
3.5
3.2

2016~2020

20.8
12.8
9.5
3.8
3.1
2.4

11.4
12.9
3.5
2.2
0.6
2.3

21.8
21.2
12.2
6.8
5.4
3.1

15.3
13.1
6.0
3.2
2.2
2.5

: 1)
2) 2015 ,
: ,

[ 96]
40 (, %)

30
20

18.2

12.0

10

4.7

2.7

0
1971

1975

-10
-20
-30

106 .

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

2007

2011

2015

1.
.


10%
3 5%
(, %): (5) 4.7 (6) 4.9 (7) 4.9 (8) 4.9
7 (18) 25.5
4.9% 8 15.1, 4.9%

(, ): (5) 2.4 (6) 29.2 (7) 25.5
(8) 15.1
2/4 2

(, %): (1/4)1.6 (2/4) 4.4
(7) 4.0
(, %): (5)0.2 (6) 0.3 (7) 0.6
2 3

(, %): (5) 2.3 (6) 5.1 (7) 2.1
20 (S&P Case-Shiller, , %): (4)0.3
(5)0.1 (6)0,1

1. 107

[ 21]
2014

GDP

1)

()

1)

2/4

2016

3/4

4/4

2.4

2.4

3.9

2.0

1/4

1.4

0.8

2/4

1.2

2.7

3.2

2.9

2.7

2.3

1.6

4.4

4.0

2)

1.3

0.8

0.1

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.6

2)

7.8

10.7

17.2

0.0

1.8

1.4

0.4

2.1

6.2

5.3

5.4

5.2

5.0

4.9

4.9

4.9

3,015

2,744

752

576

846

587

460

255

1.6

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.5

1.1

1.0

0.8

: 1)
2)
3)
4)

2015

3)

4)

(%)
(%)
()
(%)

: FRB, BEA, BLS, , ISM

[ 97]
(%)

()

400

10
()

()

8
300
6
200
4
100
2

0
2011. 1

0
7

2012. 1

2013. 1

: DataStream

108 .

2014. 1

2015. 1

2016. 1

[ 98] S&P Case-Shiller 20

(%)

(%)

15

()

()

10

1
5
0
0
2011. 1

2012. 1

2013. 1

2014. 1

2015. 1

2016. 1

-5

-1

-2

-10

-3

: FRED, FRB St. Louis

.
2016 1.8~2.2%
(2.4%) 2017 2.0~2.5%
(2.3%, )
,
, ,

IMF(2016. 7) ,
(1/4 0.8%, 2/4 1.2%) 2016 2.2%
4 0.2%p
,
2017 2.5%

OECD (2016. 6) 2 2016
1.8%, 1.9%, 2017 2.2%

1. 109

[ 99]
3.0

(%)

2016

2017

2.5

2.5
2.2

2.2

2.0

2.2
2.0

1.9

1.8

2.0

1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
IMF

OECD

: IMF 2016 7, OECD, , 2016 6 ,

:

2016~2018 GDP
2.3%( ) 2.7%, 2.5%, 2.4%
16)
[ 22]
(: %)

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

GDP

2.4

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.3

GDP

3.7

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

0.1

1.9

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.3

5.3

4.7

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.7

10

2.1

2.9

3.5

3.9

4.1

4.2

: 2015
: (CEA), Economic Report of the President 2016, Table 2-2(p. 108)
16) (Council of Economic Advisors), (Department
of Treasury), (Office of Management and Budget) 3
11 2 Economic Report of the President

110 .

 2019~2020 2.3%
2016~2018 GDP 2017
4.9%( ) 4.5%
2.1%
5

[ 100] 5
(%)

4.5

3.5

3.1

3.3

3.0

3.0
2.7
2.4

2.5
2.2
1.5

1.6

2.4

2.4

2014

2015

1.5

0.5

-0.5

2011

2012

2013

2016

: (CEA), Economic Report of the President 2011~2016

7

6 (FOMC) 2016
2.0%, 2(0.5%p) 0.9%

3 FOMC 0.2%p ,
2016 2017 1.6%(3 )
0.3%p
8 7(25.5 )
18.5 15.1 9

1. 111



, ,

2015 12

[ 101] (6 FOMC )
(%)

(%)

3.5
3.0

2.5

()

2.4

()
3.0

2.5

2.4
2.3

2.4
2.0

2.2
1.6

1.5
2.0

1.0
0.5

2.0

2.1
2.0

2.0

0.9

2.0
1.9

0.4

0.0

1.8
2015

2016

2017

2018

: 2016 (median),

: FRB

2.
.

112 .

 ,
GDP 1/4, 2/4 6.7%



2016 : 2.2(GDP 3.0%) 2015(GDP
2.4%) 0.6
6.1% 7 6.0%

3

(, %): (5) 9.6 (6) 9.0 (7) 8.1
7 2/4

(, %): (5)5.5 (6)4.9 (7)4.4
(, %): (5)0.4 (6)8.4 (7)12.5
/
2015 10 4.35%
[ 23]
2014

GDP

2015

7.7

6.9

2/4

7.0

2016

3/4

6.9

4/4

6.8

1/4

2/4

6.7

6.7

5.9

6.1

6.1

6.0

10.1

10.5

9.7

8.1

10.4

10.2

10.2

6.3

5.2 16.4

4.8

4.4

13.4

14.2

11.7 13.8

1.4

1.7

8.3

6.1

6.3

5.9

16.6

11.3

11.6

10.8

12.0

10.7

10.2

10.7

11.1

6.0

2.9

2.9

0.5

14.3

2.0

1.4

1.5

2.1

6.7 12.5
2.1

1.8

: (%)
: CEIC, DataStream,

2. 113

[ 102]

6.8

()

7.0

(%)

6.7

6.5

6.6

6.00

6.5

6.0

6.4

5.60

5.5

6.3
6.2

5.0

6.1
6.0

4.5

5.9

4.35

4.0

5.8
2013-12-01

2014-06-01

2014-12-01

2015-06-01

2015-12-01

2016-06-01

2012-01-01

2013-01-01

2014-01-01

2015-01-01

2016-01-01

: 1
: CEIC

.
2017
2016 6.5%
2016 ,

[ 103] (GDP)
(%)

3.5

3.0
3.0
2.5
2.0

2.0

2.1
1.8

1.5

1.5

2.4

2.1

2.3

2.0

2.0
1.5

1.0
2011

2012

: , CEIC

114 .

2013

2014

2015

2016

 2016 : 2.2(GDP 3.0%) 2015(GDP

2.4%) 0.6
IMF 4
1 0.2%p (6.5%) 7 6.6%
0.1%p

2017 6.3%
2016
, ,
,

(): (14.6) 6,994 (15.6) 10,919
(16.6) 14,373
[ 104]
(,%)

7.0
2016

6.8

6.8
6.6

2017
6.7

6.6
6.5

6.5

6.4
6.2

6.2

6.2

6.0
5.8
IMF

OECD

: IMF 7, OECD, , 6
: IMF, OCED, ,

2. 115

[ 105]
1,600

()

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
2011-03

2011-09

2012-03

2012-09

2013-03

2013-09

2014-03

2014-09

2015-03

2015-09

2016-03

: (NPL: non-performing loan)

(/)
: CEIC

3. 17)
.
2016 1/4 ECB
, 2/4

GDP 1/4
0.6% , 2/4 0.3%

2/4 (6 23)

2015 2/4 ,
2016 2/4

17) 19

116 .

 6 (6 0.1%, 7 0.2%, 8 0.2%)

[ 24]
( : , %)

2014

GDP

(10)

0.9

2015

1.7

1.4
2.7
0.9
2.1
1.4
2.6
2.3
5.0
253.5 332.8
0.4
0.0
1.328 1.110
11.6 10.9

2016

1/4

2/4

3/4

4/4

1/4

2/4

1.3

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.6

(0.6) (0.4) (0.3) (0.4) (0.6) (0.3)

2.5
2.7
3.3
2.4
2.1
1.5

2.0
1.8
2.6
1.8
1.3
0.9

2.0
2.6
2.6
3.6
2.9

5.5
8.2
4.4
3.6 1.0 0.5
86.3 82.7 80.8 83.1 87.4 96.5

0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0 0.1
0.2
0.2
1.127 1.107 1.113 1.095 1.104 1.129 1.106 1.121
11.2 11.0 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.1 10.1

: ( ) , , , (HICP)
,
: , ECB

2/4

1/4 2% 2/4
1.5%
1/4 2/4
1.0%, 0.5%
(1/4 2.6%, 2/4 4.2%)


2016 7 10.1% 2011 8
25
21.1%

3. 117

[ 106]
(: %)

(: %)

12.5

25

12.0

24

11.5

23

11.0
22
10.5
21

10.0
()

9.5
9.0
2012 01

25 ()

20
19

2013 01

2014 01

2015 01

2016 01

: Eurostat

.

, EU

2017 1.4~1.8%
, ,

EU 7.1%, EU 43.7%
(2015 )
OECD , EU( ) 2020
GDP 0.9%
IMF EU( ) GDP 2018 0.20.5%
,
, EU ,
GDP
2%
2.3% 0.8% , 2018
2.3% 1.8%
118 .

 GDP (1~2)
EU 1.0~2.5%
8 25bp

[ 107]

[ 108]

2017
(: %)

(: %)

2.5
2

2.5

1.9
1.7 1.7

1.7 1.7

1.6

1.8

1.4

1.5

2.0

2.3
2.0

2.3

2.0
1.8

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.5

0.8

0.0

0
OECD

IMF

ECB

2016

EU

2017
2016.5

2018
2016.8

: OECD(2016.2 2016.6), IMF(2016.4 2016.7), ECB(2016.3 2016.6), EU(2016.2 2016.5)

: OECD, IMF, ECB, EU,

[ 25]

0.25% 25bp
Term Funding Scheme*(TFS)(1,000 )

600 (3,750 4,350, 18)

100 (6)

3. 119

[BOX 7]
,

EU

EU (%): (13) 8.8 (14) 9.1 (15) 9.2 2012
9%
(%): (13) 0.8 (14) 1.0 (15) 1.4 (16
(1~6 )) 0.9 ( 18.6% )


, , EU
, ,




EU

( )
1.6

/
KOSPI

1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4

(623)

0.2
0.0
1/18

2/18

3/18

4/18

5/18

6/18

7/18

: 10
:

120 .

8/18

4.
.
2016
1/4 0.2%, 2/4 0.8%

6.1
(8 10%) (2017.4 2019.10) 2/4

(/, %): (16.1/4) 0.7/0.2 (2/4) 0.2/0.4
(4.1416), ,
1/4, 2/4 0.6%,
0.1%
20142015 2/4

(, %): (16.1/4) 0.0 (16.2/4)0.4
(7)0.4
[ 26]
( : , %)

2014

GDP

1)

2)

3)

0.0

0.5

0.9
4.8
5.7
3,880
2.1
4.0
3.6
2.7
119.3

1.2
3.4
8.7
16,413
1.2
4.1
3.4
0.8
121.8

1/4

2015
2/4 3/4

4/4

1/4

2016
2/4 7

1.0

0.7

1.8

0.7

0.2

0.8

(1.2)
4.1
9.3
9.1
4,374
2.3
3.3
3.5
2.3
119.1

(0.5)
0.1
6.6
5.3
3,721
0.8
12.4
3.4
0.5
121.4

(0.5)
0.4
3.7
5.8
4,871
0.9
0.9
3.4
0.1
122.2

(0.4)
1.0
4.5
13.9
3,448
0.8
2.1
3.3
0.3
121.5

(0.5)
0.2
7.9
15.6
5,964
1.6
3.4
3.2
0.0
115.4

(0.2)
0.4
9.6
18.6
4,662
1.8
6.5
3.2
0.4
108.1

14.0
24.7

3.8

3.0
0.4
104.0 101.3

: 1) ( ) , , 2) , 3)
: , , CEIC,

4. 121

.
2016
2016 , ,
0.30.5% , 0.6%

2017
[ 109]

: 2015 , 20162017 , IMF

: IMF (2016.8.2), World Bank(Global Economic Prospects, 2016.6), JECR(
, 2016.6.7)

2017
IMF 2017
0.1% 0.3%
,

8.2 28.1 ( 7.5
)

122 .

 6 ,
, 2017 0.5%
,
. , ,
,

7 2017 (0.3%)
0.9%


2015 4/4 3.3%
2016 7 3.0% , (/)
2015 1.27 7 1.37

2017


.





2% ,

4. 123

5.
.
2014
,


2014 2/4 8 2016 1/4
5.4%
1/4 GDP (17.5%), (
6.3%), (1.4%) ,

6 5.9%
5.3% , 2016 1/4

[ 110]

(, %)

15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
2013 3

2014 3

: CEIC

124 .

2015 3

2016 3


2015 4/4

2016 8.7% 2015 5

(8.5%)
[ 27]
( %, )

2014

0.1
2.9

2.4

1,042

6.3
GDP
0.7

1.6

2.1

584

7.8
GDP
7.1

2.7

0.6

1,404

6.7
GDP

2015

2016

1/4

2/4

3/4

4/4

1/4

2/4

3.8
8.2
4.2
589
9.0
3.7
3.4
9.7
690
15.6
7.3
16.8
14.5
1,258
4.9

2.0
5.7
10.8
251
7.7
2.8
0.4
6.9
300
16.2
6.7
14.4
13.4
260
5.3

3.0
6.1
3.5
128
8.5
4.5
4.9
9.6
165
15.8
7.5
15.9
11.6
326
5.1

4.5
9.2
5.7
113
9.5
3.7
4.2
9.9
78
15.7
7.6
17.9
14.9
357
3.9

5.9
11.8
6.9
97
10.4
3.8
3.9
12.5
146
14.5
7.2
19.1
18.3
315
5.3

5.4
11.5
6.8
76
10.1
1.2
0.7
5.8
126
8.4
7.9
8.0
12.9
187
5.3

6.7
7.1
9.0
9.1
0.6
1.0
5.6
34
7.4

2.4
14.9
194
5.7

5.9
5.3
25
8.8

1.7
5.9

7.5

1.3
7.3
81
5.8

41
8.7

0.3
5.0

7.2

6.8
19.0
78
6.1

: , CEIC

2015 3.7% ,
2016
1/4 1.2% 2/4 0.6%

2016 2/4 ,

5. 125


,
2016
IMF
2015 3.7% 2016 1.2%
, ,

(%): (15) 15.6 (16 1/4) 8.4
(16 2/4) 7.4 (16 7) 7.2

,

2016 1/4 ( )
7.9%
2014 1/4
(2.5%) 8 (1.9%) , 5
1.9%
GDP : 63%, 30%, 20%
[ 111] GDP

(%)

GDP() (%)

20

10
8.3
7.5

7.5

10

6.6

7.6

6.7

7.9
7.2

5.8

0
4
-10

-20

0
2014 I

II

III

: CEIC

126 .

IV

2015 I

II

III

IV

2016 I

 2015

2016 7 217 6.8% ,
295 19.0% , 78


(): (14) 7,854 (15) 6,608
(16 1~7 ) 3,486
(, %): (14) 34.4 (15) 22.9
(16 1~7) 20.5
, 2016
2/4 7
(4~6%) 6.1%

.
2017 2015~2016 2

IMF(7 ) 2015 3.8%, 2016
3.3% 2017 0.5%

,
2017

(%): (15)14.1 (16)11.1
(17) 1.6( )
(%): (15)4.0 (16)4.4
(17) 0.0%( )

5. 127

 ,

,
[ 112] (GDP %)
()

(%)

(%)

100
73.7

-2
64.9
-4

63.0

61.2

62.3

-4.1

-3.9

-4.5

-4.9

-8

40

-7.6

-10
09

80

63.3
60

-3.4

-6

60.4

80.5

76.3

10

11

12

13

14

-9.3
15

-7.1

-7.0

16

17

20
0

: IMF

2017 2

[ 113] GDP, , (IMF)

(%)
5

3.6

2.0

1.1
0

1.3

2
1

1.0

0.7

-2.6 -2.8

-5
-10

(%)

GDP

-1

-7.3

-8.0

-7.5

-1.2

-2

-15

-3
-3.7

-20
2013

2014

-18.7
2015

-4
2016

2017

: IMF, Staff report for the 2016 Article IV consultation, Russia, July 2016

128 .

 IMF (pent up demand)

2017 1.0%
2017
5.7% (IMF)
2015 ()
58.6% 2015 15.6%
,
2016
7.5% 2017 5.7%
, ,




, ,


, ,

,

2014 5 , ,


(IMF, %): (15)7.6% (16)7.4% (17)7.4%

, ,

5. 129

[ 114] GDP (IMF)

FDI

()

(%)

FDI()

500

40
393

400
300

20
288

276

270

228

210

220

200
-20

100
0

-40
09

10

11

12

13

14

15

: CEIC

2017
(6.0%)
(IMF, %): (15)4.9% (16)5.3% (17)5.3%

, GDP ,

130 .

2017

2016 9 19

1
(tel 02 2070 3114)

(tel 02 313 7593)

. (tel 02 788 3775)
ISBN

978-89-6073-944-4

, 2016

93350

2
0
1
6

2017

2
0
1
7

1
tel. 02-2070-3114 www.nabo.go.kr

-.indd

31-970 0377-0 01179-10

2016-09-12 11:20:45