Question 1

A(1)
Moving average with 3 period
Measure
Error Measures
Bias (Mean Error)
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation)
MSE (Mean Squared Error)
Standard Error (denom=n-2=19)
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error)
Forecast
next period
a(ii)
Weighted mov average 3 period
Measure
Error Measures
Bias (Mean Error)
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation)
MSE (Mean Squared Error)
Standard Error (denom=n-2=19)
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error)
Forecast
next period
aiii
Exponential smoothing a=0.1
Measure
Error Measures
Bias (Mean Error)
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation)
MSE (Mean Squared Error)
Standard Error (denom=n-2=21)
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error)
Forecast
next period
a=0.6
Measure
Error Measures
Bias (Mean Error)
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation)
MSE (Mean Squared Error)
Standard Error (denom=n-2=21)
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error)
Forecast
next period

Value
2.063
13.016
236.508
16.168
35.27%
51.667

Value
2.024
14.246
247.917
16.553
37.888%
54.167

Value
-1.345
13.25
253.166
16.652
40.61%
46.907
Value
.551
14.039
232.157
15.946
38.138%
57.599

a=0.9
Measure
Error Measures
Bias (Mean Error)
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation)
MSE (Mean Squared Error)
Standard Error (denom=n-2=21)
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error)
Forecast
next period

Value
.61
14.48
256.855
16.773
38.544%
62.623

smoothing constant a=0.9 provided more superior forecast