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(123doc) Lua Chon Trong Dieu Kien Rui
(123doc) Lua Chon Trong Dieu Kien Rui
LA CHN TRONG
IU KIN RI RO
(khng chc chn)
1
I. XC XUT, GI TR K VNG,
BIN THIN
1. Ri ro
*. Ri ro
Tng ng
2. Xc
xut
*. XS c.quan
{
EV = PiVi vi Pi = 1
Var(X) =
= E(X-EV)2 =
(X EV)2P
5. lch chun: o mc ri ro
= (X EV)2P
X
*. EV
**. EU
L tiu thc ra
q.nh ngi ra
q.nh
lun
chn
hnh
ng em li
EVmax
L tiu thc ra
q.nh trong tnh O
Thu nhp
hung c ri ro,
Li ch
c cn nhc n
mqh gia li ch
&I
*. Nhc: cha
tnh
n
thi &
ri ro ca
ng
ra
q.nh
Ngi ra q.nh O
lun chn hnh
ng em li
EUmax
EU =pi.Ui
Thu nhp
Li ch
4
Thu nhp
P no c lch chunmin
4. S dng tiu thc h s bin thin:
(CV) =
/ EV
P no c CVmin
Tng ng chc
chn ca 1 h.ng ri
ro l lng tin sn c
(OA) chc chn lm
cho ngi ra q. tha
mn nh khi tin hnh
1 h. ri ro (U1).
EV= Ik vng
U3
U2
U1
B
A
Ri ro =
6. Cy ra quyt nh
Quy m
ln
Quy m nh
Gi tr hin ti Tg trng
10
4
ca lung tin (g=30%)
6
3
(NPV)(tng Gi
2
2
nguyn(g=40%)
T/trng: 10 x 0,3 = 3
thoi k/t(g=
LnSuy .kin
Gi nguyn: 6 x 0,4 = 2,4
30%)
Quy m
Suy thoi: 2 x 0,3 = 0,6
nh my
Nh .kin k/t T/trng: 4 x 0,3 = 1,2
Ra q/nh xy dng nh
my quy m ln v c NPV
NPV
=6
t
NPV
=3
t7
III. GIM RI RO
2. Ri ro o c & s la chn ngc
1. a dng ha
4. Bo him
3. Gi tr ca thng tin
- T.tin thu thp thm khi cn nhc gia gtr ca vic c thm t.tin
vi CF b sung thm c ttin c thc s hiu qu k0? a q.
- G.tr k vng ca t.tin hon ho = (Chnh lch gia g.tr k vng
ca hnh ng tng lai vi t.tin h.ho) v (g.tr ca k vng tng
lai vi t.tin hin c).
4. Bo him
*. Gi ca ri ro hay n b ri ro
Li ch
U3
U2
L phn tin m
ngi ght ri U
1
ro sn sng tr
trnh ri ro O
A
I1
Gi ca ri ro
B
C
D
I2
I3
I4 Thu nhp
I3=p1I1+p2I4
U(I2) = U(I3)
Imy lnh
Ichn
200
100
100
200
Nu ch bn 1 loi sp Ik vng
bn my = Ik vng bn = 150.
10
Li ch
U3
U2
U(I3)=1/2U(I0)+1/2U(I1) = EU
U(I2) = U(I3)
U1
O
I0
I3
I1
I2=1/2I0+1/2I1
Thu nhp
11
Li ch
U3
U(I3)=1/2U(I0)+1/2U(I1) = EU
U(I2) = U(I3)
U1
O
I0
I 3 = I2
I1
Thu nhp
I3 = I2=1/2I0+1/2I1
12
Li ch
U3
U(I3)=1/2U(I0)+1/2U(I1) = EU
U(I2) < U(I3)
U2
U1
O
I0
I3
I2=1/2I0+1/2I1
I1
Thu nhp
13
0,1
0,2
0,7
a.Gi tr d tnh ca v s?
b. Phng sai ca kt qu v s?
15