..

'

1983

:u

i)

, r

.. , .

ii)

.
, ,

.
,

~
, .

, :

..,..

, .

~
,

(i)

(ii)

':'"",

="".

(i),

~ .
~
~

1,

(i) ~
46

(ii) ~

(i j , 1

{ii)

(iii)

18

(iii).

( ),

'

v,

)
. ...__
, .

. :

i)

ii)

, ,

.
, , .

1. TYXAIA

v-

3
.
.

,

).

.

, :

- i'.-

,
.
a ,
.

"" ,

, .

.

, ,

, .
(
)

i ,

() " "

() c; c; ,

c;

. " "
,

a .

.)

" "

.)

""

.
, .

(i)

= {,}
""

(ii)

= "".

={,,}
.

(i i i) ={, ,, }
.

. (i) ,
"
,
.

(ii),

(iii)

. .

' .
(

" "

={,} ="" , = "".

:

i)
.

:
) ={,}

) ={,}
) = {,}

, a ,.
={ 1 ,2}
. r1 , = { 1 , 2 }

.

ii) -

6
.

=/(,), (,), (,), (,)/

'=/(2,), (1,1), (,2)j, .. (2,)

..

(2,)

(1,1)

(,) (,).
~

.
.

, .

Feller: An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications. Wiley

1968, .

, .

, .
~

1.

= /(,), (,), (,), (,)

:
2~ ...\1-~\'\'o\VI
<c:,r)

r --- -r- --

-<f(ft)

~ - - ~~ -~<r,~
I

.....

2.

2 ,3, ,n

( a ,
). n..

. ={1,2} ={,},

..,.

3.

,
.

k.

, .
,

.)

R2

( .).

a
,

, . .

.=().

, L

() .~ (). ~
.
.

, .

, .

,-

2 ... An
2 ..

, ..

...

1
1

(J.~

;c,An

A1 ,A 2 , . ,An

()

A1 Uf\ 2 U UAn
1

n 2 n n An

ASB

9
.-

1.

. .
:
={

6}

={ }

2}

C={ ,

36

, :

(1 ,2)
(2,2)
{ 12,1
=
(3,1) (3,2)
( 4,1) (4,2)
( 6,1 ) (6,2)
(1 '1)

( 1,3)
(2,3)
(3,3)
(4,3)
(6,3)

(1 ,4 )
(2,4)
(3,4)
(4,4)
(6,4)

(1 .~)
(2,5)
(3,5)
( 4,5)
(6,5)

{1 ,6)
(2,6)
(3,6)
( 4,6)
{6,6)

= "'

={1,2,3,4,5,6}

L ={)

j{5, 1), ( 4,2)' (3,3), (2 ,4)' {1,5) 1

= j( 1,1), ( 2,2)' {3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)

C= j( 1,2), ( 1 ,4)' ( 1 '6)' (2, 1)' (2,2)' (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), {2,6),
(3,2), ( 3,4)' ( 4, 1)' {4,2), {4,3), (4,4), {4,5), (4,6), (5,2)'
(5,4), (5,6), (6, 1)' (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), {6,6)
2.

p .

~p.

0L

={,,,}

1). =

()=~0, {},{},{},{},{ .. },{,},{,}, { ,},

{,},{,},{,,},{,,},{,,},

. { ,,}, ~

10
, ,
, (,) L
.

3.

0L

={,,,,

, }

'--"

n-1

. "

4.

QL=P().

= (,y)

=1 ,2,3,4

y=1 ,2,3,41

(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4)
(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4)

,y)

(3, 1) ,(3,2) ,(3,3) ,(3,4)

y.

(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4)
. = ().

1.

1 ,2,3,4
.

=''

".
=" -".
C=';J ".

(i) AUB,

(ii)AB,

( iii) AUC,

(i)

nC

11

2.

. .

3.

(i ) .

(ii)
(iii)

.
(i)
.

4.

10

10.

; .
,

''

" .

2.

: ,
.

,
"" , .
,

(Laplace),

i ,
.

, ,
().
,

. V.
,

Gnedenko,

12

~ (

).

..

(..

)
.

. ~

Maxwell

Boltzmann

, ~ ,
;
.

n .
,

()

()

. .
,

, , a , :

7
28
54
106
493
4981

10
50
100
200
1000
10000

0,7
0,56
0,54
0,53
0,493
0,498.

0,5.

y ~~ .t~~~

Von Mi ses.

. .- )~q!i

13
.
.

(,

Schnorr, C.P . Zufalligkeit and Wahrschein-

lichkeit, Lecture Notes in Mathematics,

218, Springer, 1971).

; :

(i) :> ():>1 ()=1

n

( ii) AnB=~ (U)= ()+ ()

n

, ,

( ):-

()_
()

:#() : =" ",

( i)

( i i).

( i)

( i i)

~ a . , _
l,! . ,

-- .
.

f. .

2.1.

, (/J)

..,..

14
,

1,2,3

r 2 1 , 2 , 3

({1})-;zc 1 , ({2})-:2 C 2 , ({3})-:2 C 3 c-~ 2

:

1 ,2,3

[0, 1],

k\(__/

1.

[0,1]

, =

=[, 1] .

....

, .)

.
~

. ,

, :

15

(),

, . (Kc).
:

11. ,
, ,
, ,
.
.

()_
v-

, .., .

J
~

10

16
ci

() ()_C.()
()

c-()

[ , 1][, 1] :=j(x,y) \x,yR!

~. ,
:
()=()

.. ' : :=[0,1)[,~ /
" ,J_ ",

..

,
'!

.. v
. ;;, t,

. ,

, . ,

, n . , :
cu

:rou

!l\Jr,,

"

.
v ,

~L :

(i)

\)G, ()<+

(ii) ''-= ~ (n)=()+()

"

( i ) () Q , ()= 1
(ii) AnB=0

P(AUB) =P(A}+P(B) ~

= [, 1] [, 1], -

17
: ,
.. ;

11

: .
.

(ii)

(ii)

(*) ,

1 2

, , ~

A. nA.=0, i:;t:j

l.

P(A 1 UA 2 U. UAnU . . . )= P(A 1 )+P(A2 )+ . +P(An)+ .

Kolmogoro ,

(i i )

(ii)'

(i)

( i i-)

-.

~
(.

).

- ,

(
1

( ) .

18

12

, ().

() -

, .
,

={ ,1] [ ,1],

: =[0,1], . "

\" =
:

[()] P((I<J) (1<7\)

()

Venn

19

(1) ~ () :> ()
(2) P(Ac)=1-P(A )
(3) ( U )=( }+( )-(

n )

(4) , (J. , P(A-B)=P(A)-P(AnB)

8]

():;; ()

2.2.

. .

, .

~1

m,

,
.
.
.

m(A)

.
m(A)~O

1 2

..

m(

~)

= 1

m(A):.>m()=C<+co

, , . ,

= ; m(A. )

=1

(t

, ()

() ,

p1

p2

.

.

20

1.

, .
={l,2}

1'.

1,
2 12

2'.

12

2.

.
.

.....

. -

).

, .

13

. ,

, ~ . ~
:

, ;
.

( ). ,
,

, ~
~
!!!

21
( )

4 .. n

) :

a------------b
=c

( ),

(a,b) P
b-:-a)

m=

=(
)

- ,

[ a, b] .

()

14

=()

22
p.

, p
.

(a,b),

p a d.

d (: H.J. Keisler: Elementary

Prindle, Weber Schmidt, 1976,

Calclus,

a a ).

x+dx

dm

x+dx,

()

()d,

dm ~p( )d
:

m=J

()d=
() a b

f(x)~(x),

a f(x)dx=1

3.

f(x)

, ,

) ,

: -[0,1]

, .

-()

( i)

(ii)

)=1
,, ...

,
1

(,.,

23

(,QL,P)

,
:

, ,. ,~ ( )

15

(,~,) u

4.

....

, u.

).

,

p:

=1.

, u

(i) -

24

(ii)

16

()
()

(~),
~J .
() ,
.

()'

( Cheal

.
,

score

9-7,

ier de Mere)

10

.
.

25

1,

9 - 7
, .

'

1"111
=z
+z-z

117

+ J:-z"g

' ~

7-4

7.

,. ..

8-6

, v

.
Chea l i

er de Mere,

5.

Fennat.

Pascal

1654,

Pasca l.

Pasca l

Fermat.

..,.

1.

, . ,
, () ;
.

~----~~----~~------------~

/ 2

, , ( ):

26
+(-)

>

2
(-)+%>

>-

( )

>2

>4
3

<

-4

p=--=2

..,.. 2.

.
;
1

( ).

, -

.(),.
,

'+'+'=

17

.
).

(,

, .

'< +
1

'<' +

MZ'<i
<::> '<~

'<~

'<' + 1

~. ,

'

()

( ) 4

27
2

( ).

18

, ~=

y),

O<x<y<b.

KN=y =b.
y

(,

19

y-x, b-y.

,y-x ,b-y

b
b
b
x<-z, y-x<-z 1-Y<-z

<~

Lt.

(x,y)

y<x+~ y>~

, , , -

( ) 1

() -4
..,.

3.

(,

, ,

) .

28

(,b),

, 2 +b 2 <1,

.
,

>,

b>O.

(2) 2 +4(b-1

)<0 +b<1.

()

20

_2

(U) - -

1.

1,

(0,1).

1.

(An. %-~)
2.

' , ,

. ,

:J,

, .

, ~
,

0,25

3.

(0, 1).

4.

2 ++b=

(-1 ,1 ).

; ;

5.

2i.

, ,
.

29
(i)
(ii)

~
~ .

(iii)

(i) ~ (iii).
6.

6.1.

uu

n
.

..,...

1.

( )

={,,,,,,,}

, *,

, .

,
*={, ,,}

*
()

, ,

* ( ) =r

~-

*. -

()~
, ,
.

30

..,..

2.1.

2.

( )

n () ,

,
.

n()_()

vm=
()
n

1
= C()' C=()

-~

~ :

: 21

P(AiB)=PB(A)

, ,
()=1,
()=()

()

P(A)=1im-l-m
n+oe

31
21().

, ,
()
(

,Q,P).

, .
,
, ,

nB

. ,
:

n(n)_(n)
()
= (')

n -+

""

p ()-(n)

()

=
21().

n )

()

()>,

PB(A)=P(AIB):=
,

P~Nj 8 )
'

1.

32
( nB)=P(AIB) ()

P(BIA)P(A)

2.

. .

.

, .

.
, ' -

.
&1:

-PB(A) :: P(AiB):

n )

()

: ( ,., ),
. ,

()> .

3.

n C) >

PtAnBnc)
Pc(AnBJ
P(C)
P(AIBIC) = Pc(AIB) =
p () =-p..-.("'B,..;.n""c;.,-,). .-c
( C)
P(AnBnc) - P(A ! Bnc)
( nc)
,

P(A I BI C)=P(A ! Bnc), P(Bnc) >

P(AiBIC) =P(AIBnc) .

4.

.
.

, .

33
=,

={,}

={,,,,,,,}

' =
:

P(KKK)=P(K)P(K\K)P(KIKK)

(}=() ; p(KIK) (\)

()=() (I) (I)

() = () ( I ) ( I )
()=() (I) (\)

()=()(I) (I)

() = () ( ) ( I )

()=() (\) (I)

1.

()+()=1, P(KIK)+P(IK)=1, (I)+(I)=1

P(K)P(K \K )P(KIKK)+P(K)P(KIK)P(IKK)+P(K) P ( IK )P(KIK)+

+()(I)(I)+()(I ) (J)+().~( I )(I)+

+()(I) (I)+()(I) . (I)=1

....

() .

3.

10

()

, .
;

34

( )=( , ). ( )+( !). ()i-i+~

=( )+()
J.

4.

A,B,C

, .

(),

;
.

1. ~r---

1/-

:::

''~ ,.~r~~

a. r~a. r~:~:

~
a,.

a.

lf-a.

\<

'fa. :

~.\<~ ~r

l.

( ) = ((=) (=, =,C= ,=)

(=,= ,C=,=,=,C=,=) ] = -~+J...+J...+J...+ . =~=4

24

..

= .

6.2.

27

1- ~

29

, .

()(j) "" ().

(!)=()
,

35

:

22

()=() ()=(),

P(AjB) =P(A)

P(BjA)=P(B)

nB

:
()

J())=

(())

(*)

()

()=1, (*) :

() = ( n ) = ( j)
( ')

, () >, () >.

(**)

P(B) =P(BjA).

~ (**)

:
(())=() ( )

() = () = ,
:

36
.

, (
).
( ) =() ( )

1.

2.

=0 () >, () >,
. ..
,

3. 0 ~!.: "'
.

4.

,
: ,
,

()

U () ().
,

f(x,y)

x,y

() =f((), ())
..
= {}
={13} u

f(x,y)

f(x,y) =xy.

: (I)=().().

37

....

5. =[0,1][0,1] , ()=

=( ).

r -

:
()=()=a

()=()=b
(n)=(

B)=ab

P(AnB)=P(A)P(B)

();z:0

AnB=0

(()) = (0)=0 :
()() = ~ ()=

()

=0

~=[0,1]x[n,1],
() = ()=

= 0

....

() < (), P(AnBJ=i;- P(A IBJ+P(B IAJ =1.

(),

().

P(AIB)+P(BiA) =P(A)+P(B)

I ()+()=1 I
, : (

I()() =i I

(1)
) = ()()

(2)

, (), ()

38

2=-; ()<(),

P(A) =s
..,..

7.

()=-;-

12

1..

15

. n ,
,

12

1..

. .

(x,y), [,1]
y[,1].

= [, 1][, 1]. ,
A.t-------...,(t1 )

--- _,c...,!J)

J.

~ ,

A=~(x,y)E i lx-yl~*~

( 1)

y~x

(2)

x~y

(x,y)
1

y-x::>4
1
x-y;;;4

y;;;x+*
1
y<::x-4

(x,y)

39

A=A 1UA 2

. ()~.

--

A1=~(x,y):;~x

'1!]\\\!

Az=

~(x,y) : y~x

y~x+{ ~

y~x-~ ~

. 1.

P(A)=p 1

P(B)=p 2

Po =(1-pl)(1-pz)
p0

2.

~ ()

(i)

() :

(ii)
(iii)

() () ;

3.

(()) = ()() () >

(()\)=(\) (\);

4.

5.

() ={, P(AUB)

=j

P(B) =p, :

(i) p c ()

6.

(ii)

(iii)

(i) AS:BSQ

()>, (\)

(ii) P(A\B)>1-P(Ac)
=
P('l3}

40

(iii) P(AjB)=P(AjBc). .
.

7. = 0, P(A):>P(Bc).
8.

.
.

9.

11,

5.

3,

10.

1,2,3 ,4,5

"

11.

5.

, , UU= ()
( )<

1,

( i)

<1

()=f.
,, .

( ) =() ( ), ( C) =()

(ii)

P(C),

( C) =( ) P(C).

P(AfBC)=P(A)P(B)P(C).

12.

, :

(i) Ac Bc .
( ii) P(AU B)=1-P(Ac)P(Bc).
13.

AJlB

.
:

(i) AJlB. &

AJl ~ AJlBU

(ii) AlLB & AJl & n = 0 ~ AJl8U

(iii)AJlB &

BJl

& AJlB

~JlAnB.

41

6.3 .

) "

".

, ,
,

,
.
.

C .
:

...,. n 8. , ,
..
. ~J .

P1 (K)=p ,

1 ={,}

. = ( )=

1 ()=p.

p+q=1

j0, {}, {} , \

,
:

( ,):

= () ()

=p 2

2(,):=

1 (){)=pq

2(,):=

1 ()()=q

2(,):= 1 () 1 ()=q 2
:

, ..

42

3() = 1()1()1()
=p2q

.

....

9.

2 20

10

20

, ;

. .
,
,
~ .
.= "
l

. = "
1

1 ( 1 )

1 ,
=15

1 ( 1 )

",

i =1,2
i =1,2

" ,

1
=j

2(2)

=-z1

( 1 ,2),
, 1 2

P(l,K2) = Pl(l)Pz(Kz)

10 1 1
-z =3

="'15"
....

1 .

. :

(i)
(ii)

.

= "

4 "

= " 3 9",

(i)

' = ( 1 ,2 1 ) .

1 ,i = 1,2,

.. ,10

1 = {1,2,3,4,5,6}. 1 = 1 1 ... 1

43

( i i)

"'

1. 1

10

10

"'

10
<:"11

"'

10

o;t

Pl

10

10
<=11

f.

{6}

.n

,
,

={1 ,2,3,4,5,6} .

1=

={2,4,6}

{1,3,5}

1 () =(,) (8) () ( {6}) () () = ~ (() =1 )

"
'
"
";
"
6 "
1 () =( ) () ({2 ,4, 6}) () ( {1 ,3 ,'5 }) ()
1 1

=-"2=4

.....

11.

( ).

1 =(0,1].

, [a,b]!:[o,1], ,
(a,b], [a,b].

1 ( [a,bJ)=i([a,b])=b-a, /::"".

..

&.""' '

{' '\;

2=(0,1](0,1]

2 1 =[, 1], 1 2
2 = [, 1] [, 1]
2( 2)=1()(2)

=f [a,b] .f [a2,b2]
=(b 1 -a) (b2-a2)
= 1 2

( )

2 ( 1 2 )= 1 ( 1 ) 1 ( 2 )

42

p3()=()()()

=p2q

....

9.

20

10

20

, ;

. .
,
,
~ .

i =1,2
.=" i ", i =1,2
l
.
1

1
1
1
: 1 ( 1 ) =s 1 ( 1 ) =j 2 ( 2 ) =-z Pz(Kz) =
2
.="
l

",

( 1 , 2 ),
, 1 2

(,z) = ()2(2)

1 1 1
-z =3

=;

....
.

1 .

(i)
(ii)

= "

4 "

=" 3 9",

(i)

= (,2, ... ,) .
.

,i = 1,2,

... ,10

1 ={1,2,3,4,5,6}. 1 = 1 1 ... 1

43

( i i) =1

1 1

10

10

""'

::

.,;_

10

"'' "''

t .,;_t

t. t

.,;_

10

{6}

10

10

"''

"'""

"""

={1 ,2,3,4,5,6}.

1=

=ll{2,4,6}l {1,3,5}1

1 0 ( ) = () ( ) () ( {6}) () ( ) = ~ ( () =1)
~~

"'

"

";

~~

"'

1 () =( ) () ({2,4, 6}) () ( {1 ,3 ,'5 }) ()

1 1 1 '
=22=4
.....

11.

( ).

1 =(0,1].

, [a,b]~(0,1], ,

u (a,b], [a,b].

1 ( [a,bJ)=i([a,b])=b-a, [:"".
'

J.11" '" '" '\)

2=(0,1](0,1]

1 2 1 =[0,1], 1 2
2 =[0,1](,1]
2(1 2)=1(1)1(2)

=i

[a1,b1] .f [a2,b2]
=(bl-al) .(b2-a2)
= 1 2

( )

2( 1 2)= 1 ( 1 ) 1 (2)

44

J..l - - - - - - - - - - . . , < 11 1)

A:.{b.a ---~

~.. ~--- - --~

I
I

c,

b1

....._____

2 =[0 , 1] [0 , 1]. (

5). :

2( ) = () () = ()
2(2) = ( ) (2) = 2(2)

2 = ()I ( 2)
'

2( 2) = () ( 2 )

45

1.

:
:

(, )

( ,)

(,)

(,)

({ } )

1
J

1
6

l ,
.

, l

2.

()

, ()
()

2
2

. ,

(iii)

1.

( i) 1

( i i)

(i)

, '

, .
' , ,
.

'

, , ,

( i i)

{0,1,2,3}.

R.

46
~

np

1.

. ~ ={,,,}.
u .

0,1,

() .
~

n.

2.

1 2

={ , , ... ,}

, ~
:-

-():="u "

,
() .

() :-

a .

.. u = [0,1][0,1], (),
,
,

(..) .

(,(J,) -

47
,

R.

(,(.,). L

(R,B,Px)

(, , ), (,(J. ,)
.

..,._

3.

={1,2,3,4,5,6}{1,2,3,4,5,6}

(( i ,j)] = ~,

J.

2..

'5

i ,j =1,2,3,4,5,6.

'

, :

(i

, j ) =max {i , j}, ( i ,j )

.. v ' = {1,2,3,4,5,6}.
'

, .

~ :
({1}),

({2}),

.. ,

( {6 } )

l = {i() = 1}={(1,1)}

2 = { ( ) =2} ={( 1 , 2 ) , ( 2, 1 ) ,

( 2, 2) }
3 = { i()=3} = {(1 ,3)', (2,3) ,(3,3), (3,2), (3,1)}
4 = { I () =4} ={ ( 1,4), ( 2,4), ( 3,4), ( 4,4), ( 4,3), ( 4,2), ( 4,1)}

48
5 ={\()=5}={(

1,5), (2,5), (3,5), (4,5), (5,5) ,(5,4), (5,3), (5,2), (5, 1)}
1 ,6), (2,6), (3,6), (4,6), (5,6), (6,6), (6,5) ,(6,4), (6,3)
(6-,2),(6,1)}

6 ={\ ()=6}={(

' L:

Px({1}):=P(X=1]=P(A 1 )=-do .. (=1]:={\() = 1}

( {2}) : =P (X=2)=P(A 2 )=-io

( {3}): = [=3] =( 3 ) =5/36
( {4}): =(=4] =(4 )=7 /36
( {5}) :=(=5]=( 5 )=9/36

( {5}): = [=6] =( 6 )=11 /36

:

4/36
'3/36

5/36

t/36
t;)/3 &
~1/3~

f:' +

ction)

fx

(.)

f('):=({'}) = (=']

'{1,2,3,4,5,6}

( Probabi 1 i ty mass fun

49
.

.. a
, v

f ( ) = [=]
.

: +

R,

():= [ ] { (() } = [ - 1 ())

- 1

() .

() ..

R,

a - 1 () - 1 () ,

- () .

, .

3).

...w....,.,... ,..,,.c.)

Tll\aio 11~cC CSl.OL.P)

23

51

-1

-\

1R

24

=[ - ~ , ~ ] z =[~
1

, 1]

=(,y) 2 () >~.
( 2 ) = (z) = ( 2 )
{C)

'
1

) =.!!- /3
3 4

(2)=3-4
, ( 1 )=( 1 )

...,.. 5.
.

( 2 )=( 2 )

25

(,G.,), :

. .

():-{0,1} R

AEOL

50
,

(R,B,P)

(,~.},

input)
,

()

( )

. .

....
C

r=1

4.

C).

(0,0) .

(x,y)

" "

() "'tS C"
..

(,):C---R

(x,y)-(x,y):=x

( i)
( i i)

( i)

([-~ ~ J)
[~~

i-ii

, , ~
I
1 - ~
=( 1 ).

,i ]

( 1 ).

) = (l) = (1)
(C}

, :

(i i )

51

-.

-'4

-1

1R

24

1=[ -{.{]

Bz=[{,

=(,y) 2 ()
( 2 ) = ( 2 ) = ( 2 )
( c)

'

>{.
2

....

) =.!!- 13
3

1
3
(2) =3-4

, ( 1 )=( 1 )

1]

5.

( 2 )=(2)

25

(,(J.,), :

..

():-{0,1}

AEOL

52

- ():=

. . .
.

1 ({0})

1 ({1}).

(J a

1
a Ac. . ~ 1 ({1})=
I~ 1 ({0})=Ac. '.

({

1 } ) = ()

({

} ) = ( c) =1 - ()

P(A) =p P(Ac)=q

P{IA =1] =p

P[IA=O] =q

1 ({1}) = [ =1] 1 ({})=[=].

7.1

uc

:-R . ..
:

D= {x

26

53

.={i{)=.J
1.
.
1.

, ,.::,
:{

26).

26

i=1,2, . ,n

. -

fx ( 1.. ) = ( { 1.. } ) : = [ = 1.. ]

= (.

1.

),

i = 1 , 2 , .. , n

..

1.

=f (.1. ) = [ = .)
1.

p1

p2

...
...

pn

p. =1

i= 1
{ ,
1

, ... , }

.....

6.

..

3)

.
.

1.

15

..

.
.
.

.. 0,1

2.

fx(O) = P( = OJ = (i~}(~(~1) =~~

f ( 1 ) = ( = 1] = (( ,, ) J+ [(, , ) J+ ((, , )]

=(+*)(/4)(+%}(~ ~ )(i ~)(/5)( i(~~) =

12

=35
f ( 2) = [ = 2] = ( (, , )]+ [(, , ))+ [(, , )]

=(i t124) ~13} ~2s)6\) (; ~) +Us)(~ ~)(~)

1

= 35

13

54

22
35
12

fx(x)

35
1

35
7.2

!Ju !'

=1

=2

!J

!,!u!J

,
.

2.2,

...

HL!!'J

[a,b]SR [a,b]
.

, ,
( )

.
1 , 2

p2

p1

p.=fx(x.) =P [X =x .]
1

,
:

+22
= 11
+
= 1 1+2 2 ,

1 + 2

=1

55
() .

ER ,: .

" "

, .. , v
{ 1 ,2

},

R ,

...

',.

~ ... ~

~
1>.

p ,p , . ,p .
1
2
n

'1(.~

t60

, , ,
2
n

'"'

'X-tt

i~

"....

'

'

rp"'

..

,
1

, ..

,}.

p.=fx(x.)=P[X=x.]
l
l
l

...
...

_l

pn

,
.

pl(-x1)+p2(-2)+ . +pk(-xk) = pk+1(k+1-)+ ... +pn(xn-)

a :

+ .. +p
22
nn
pl+p2+ .. +pn

=11

p ,p , ... ,p
1

p +p +... +p =1
1

+p

= xp , x p + . . . +p
1122

n n_

56
.

..
:

...

f( )=(=.]
3

...

fx(\)

fx(\)

].

f()

():=

.f(.)

i=1 ; fx(x
l

].
l

)+

f(

)+, + f(

~ :

(i)

.. :

E(aX+b]=aE[X]+b

(ii) .. :
[+ ] = []+ []

.....

7.

, ..
.

:
()=,

=1

,2,3,4,5,6

.
.

()=1 )+2 "6+3

...

8.

P.t,

+4

. . ~r :t r

+6

=3 ,5

n;.., . .

: :. ~ , c

:. L ...

+5

1,

'fp,.\ . c c .

,> . :. '.

57

(i) c .
(ii) c=4 ,

'

(i)

3,5

c=3,5

, .

(ii) c=4 ,

50

. .
.

L,

3;5

() = 3,5,
, .

....

7.

9.

3,5
= ..

5,

..

P[IA=1]=p

{0, 1}

P[IA=O] =q

= [ = 0]+1[=1]
=P[IA=1] =p ()
. =().
.

g() .. ,
n
(g ( ) ] :
1g( i ) f (

i:

i)

.._

(). ()
,

_ u , t
, .. =

58
=().

:
:

( -),

( -),

,( -)

fx(x

fx(xz), ... ,fx(xn)

),
1

(.-) ,
1

, . ,

:
( -)2,( -)2,
1
2

.. ,(

-)2

n
(. -

i=1

)2

..
( -)2,( -)2,
1
2

.. ,(

(-) 2 :

-)2

V()=[(-) 2 ]
n
= (.-

i=1

)2 f

(.)
1

...

1 .

V().

V(X),

V() = (3,5-1 ) 2 +(3,5-2) 2 i;+ (3,5-3) 2 i+(3,5-4) 2 i+

+(3,5) 2 i;+(3,5-6) 2 =2,92

...

11.

p ..

, :

( A)=(0-p) 2 p[I =0]+(1-~) 2 [= 1]

. =p2. q+q2 p=pq ( p+q) =p q=P(A) [1- ()]

p + q = 1.

59
.

8.

+ /V('X)

BERNOULLI.

Bernoulli

(i) : ()

().

(ii)

, ()

(iii)

p=P(E). v
P(A)=1-P(E)=1-p q

.n

..

noulli.
n

. "'B(n;p).

(n;),

rPIONO

Pascal.

PASCAL.

Bernoulli.

Bernoull i.
Ber-

Pascal

Pascal

,
. :

Pasca_l.

29,

(i)
(ii)

Pascal

29).

Pascal

1.

. ,

, ..

2
, ,

60
- ~

1-

(~)'

Pascal:

,'

~,(~)'- ~,(:)'--

2}'

,(

(2}'

2-

(2}'

3-

-0---~---2-

-,{ --,(:)'~ --'(~-~ --(:) '- /'" c[e

4 _,(~)'~ __ ,(~)'~ __ ,(~)'~ _ -,(~}'~ _ -, (:}~ 5/-

<? _ ,(~}-

(~

(~)'

-(;}'--- (~)'-- -.(~)'- 6-

__ ,(~)'___

'

(~,'

-.(~(-- -J(;)'-- -,{~}'-,'

,'

(~)'-

(~/

(~/

'

(~/

(~,'

(~

1-

;1

_.;___
_ _ _ _ _ - I 1-

---~---1

2-

3-

3 / ~- ,/ - 1/'":~::~:[e

,,''--,~' ~

-I-

- ' -- -- - -s,

5- -

1-I

'

21

1/

20 - - ._ 15 - - -

6- - - 15-

1
-

(:}',

29

(~)'___ (:}' ___ (~)' ___

__

,'

35

,
35

6--

21

b-

'

61

2
1

1
2

(iii) .
(i) ,
, , ..

3 5 Bernoull i ~.
29.
; : X1 -vB( 1 {) pu
1,1

1:

t'~5.,.

n&."c-s 1'.,

...

0-'f)- l(\ . ) ~..J------"1

_....- CAA .. ,\&)-----~

"

"f(4-"&~-: (/ ... ftE)

(. lt)

'P""--jce ... e)j .. A.. ----~-n

+.

30

(t-y')"'= (.~)(-l'')"'

62

1 /2

1 /2

:
2 -

1 ) :
(2 ;

5 -(5

;i)

1 4

2
1 /2

1/4

1/32 5/32 10/32 10/32 5/32 1/32

. . .

-(n;)

fx(x) = (~)px(1-p)n-x

x=0,1,2, ... ,n

,
.

(.

.30).

)
u

2.2.
-
1-
2-

3-
3

31

,
" ",

63
.
(},

(}, ,

. .

~.
'

.
.

, , :

~ ~ 9

/)
G.o.o

: ;

~

jj>
~ ~

&J d'Q..o

"

JJ 'W 9

9 ~ 9

...

~~-~.

~~~

. 256
.

1/2.
(8, ~}.

Galton

.
,
,
.

, ,


.

9.
a.
~

64
( : ,
~ .
~

1.

ly

, ,
,

2.

8(6; ~) ,

= ) (~)

=~

( 2 )

, ,

ci 6 .

3/4.

Ek =" 6

( Ek) = 6 ,

' = "

",

( Ek) = 6

n
" =

Ek
k=1

() = (k=~ 1k)=1-(k= 1 ~)
=1-

P(Ec)

k=1

=1 _ 5
6

k=1,2, ... ,n

' ,

1 - ( -65)n <:

=> n ;;: - 1 g 4 = 7. 6

log~

3.

n=8.

-4

-3

-2

-1

65


,

'.,.\

EtiA

\?'.

.
( )

,2,3,4,

=0 , 1

c:\

t::\~<y

'1::\ \\ .'(

.eJ\

t\0!'\lt.1r-

1. 0
2. , ,,
3. 0
4.

-1. 0
-2. ,,, .
-3. 0
-4.

(-4) = ~, (-3)=0, (-2) =4 (-1)=0

()

=a3

(;),

(+1) = 0,

(+2)=4

66

(+3)=,

(+4) =

1. 4 :
.

---+---

,
,

(),

(),{),() (),
.

2.

(i)

(ii)

3.

,,,

S(
.

.::-c a

u yr
~ - " .. :

~1

{)