Kicking Goals

Binomial Probability Function Task

The Problem
Kicking a goal in AFL is a very precise art, not
everyone has the skills required to achieve it. Say
there is a 60% chance that, when you take your
shot, you score a goal. If you have 5 shots at goal
in total during the game, what is the probability that
you make 2 of those 5 shots? That is, what is the
chance that you score a goal twice in the duration
of the game?

Kicking Goals
In your table groups, discuss ways of
investigating this problem? What
methods might you be able to use to
find the probability? What needs to be
considered?

Kicking Goals
Watch the following video and see if you can
now find the probability. What does Khan
Academy suggest we do? Does this link in with
any previous ideas of probability? Does it make
sense to approach the question this way?
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/random-variablestopic/binomial_distribution/v/probability-of-making-2-shots-in-6-attempts
.

The maths (Ewww)

Pr(score)=0.6

. . Pr(miss)=0.4
Pr(X=2)= 5C2.(0.6)2.(0.4)3
= 0.2304
Therefore, you have approximately a 23% of scoring 2
goals for the duration of the game.

Tech-nically helpful :P
Lets have a look at how we use our CASs to evaluate this binomial
distributions.

Kicking Goals
What is the probability of at least 2
goals scored? How might we figure this
out?
Discuss amongst your table groups and
have a go at finding the probability.

The maths (Ewww)

Pr(score)=0.6

. . Pr(miss)=0.4
Pr(X>2)= Pr(X=2) + Pr(X=3) + Pr(X=4) + Pr(X=5)
= 5C2.(0.6)2.(0.4)3 + 5C3.(0.6)3.(0.4)2 + 5C4.(0.6)4.(0.4)1 + 5C5.(0.6)5.(0.4)0
=0.91296
Therefore, you have approximately a 91% chance of getting at least 2 goals in the
game.

Why might your chances go up?

Tech-nically helpful :P
Lets have a look at how we use our CASs to evaluate this binomial
distributions.
What did we do in the second question that differed from the first?
What does this imply?