2013 4-

.
. , . , .
, , , .
,
. http://www.worldbank.org.mn . ,
, . (tpuntsag@worldbank.org).

.....................................................................................................................................................................3

............................................................................... 7
, ..................................................................................... 7
................................................................................................................................................. 10
, ...................................................................... 13
........................................................................................................................................ 17
M, .......................................................................................................................... 23
: .....................................28
.........................................................................................................................33
: (2013 3- ) .....................................................................34

.......................................................................................................................... 34
...................................................... 35
........................................................................ 37

1: - (, ) ........................................................................................................9
2: - , ( ).................................................................................9
3: , ( ) .................................9
4: , 2005 (
, ) ............................................................................................................................................................... 9
5: (, ) ........................................................... 11
6: (, ) .................................................... 11
7: (- ) ............................................................ 16
8: , (- ) ............................................................... 16
9: (- ) ........................................................................... 16
10: (): 2012 , 2013 ................ 16
11: (): 2012, 2013 ............................................................ 16
12: (- ) .............................................................. 16
13: (12 , . ) ................................................. 19
14: , (12 , . ) .......................................................... 19
15: (, , ) ..................................................... 19
16: (, , )...................................................... 19
17: (2012 , ) ................................................ 20
18: (2012 , ).................................................. 20


19: (. ).................................. 22
20: ( . , ) ...................................................................... 22
21: M ( , ) ........................................................................ 24
22: , (, ) ............................................................ 24
23: - () ............................................................................................... 25
24: (, ) .................................. 25
25: () ................................................................................ 26
26: , () ........................................................................ 26
27: , - (): ............................................. 31
28: , - (): ...................................... 31

1: ........................................................................................................... 12
2: ...................................................................................... 15
3: ................................................ 19
4: Mo ........................................................................... 27
5: : ,
..................................................................................................................................................................... 31
6: ..................................................................................................... 31
7: ........................................................................ 31
8: ..................................................................... 31

OT
.
TT

Mo

O
-
T

2012 12.3 , . -
,
.
- 8.4 13 .
,
2013 .


. : (1) , ,
, (2)
.
,
2012
. 2011 17.5 2012 , 12.3 .
, ,
, .
2013
.
, 2013 13
.

. ,
, -
.

.
,
.
,
.
,
,
.
2012 2013 3- 9.8
.
,
.

,
2012 - 8.4 , 13
. 12.1 ,
.


,
, .

- 10.4 .
2013 ;
- 2 7
. 2012
15-20
. 2013
: 5.8
47 . , ,
445
.
- 6 . 5
.

.
.
- 13 . , ,
,
. ,
.

2013 ,
. ,
, 2012
, 3.2 . , - 31.3 .
9 2.1 .
2013 , .
. ,
.
.

. 2011 4.6 .
2012 17 , 3.8 . . 2013
:
42 .

.

2012 6- ,
. ,

.
.


,
2012 , 2013
.
2013
. , 1- 13.25 12.5
4- 11.5 .
, 12
. 2013 3 ,
.
.

. ,
, . 2012
75 . , - 25.2 ,
- 21.8 , - 20.5 , 9 .
,
.
:
, ,
. 2008-2009
2010 ,
.
.
.


.
. ,
.
35
, .
, ,
. , , ,

. ,
.
. , (, )
, .
, ,
, ,
.
- ,
.
, , ,
, , ,


.
.
,
.
, 2013
.

,
. ,

.
,
.
, . ,


.

,
2012
. 2011 17.5 2012 12.3 ,
( 1). 2012 14.5
-
10.6 . , ,
,
, ( 2).
, 2011 19.7
2012 12.9 .

.

2011 0.5 2012 21.3 .

,
. 2009-2010
.
2010 16
40.9 , 2012
12.6 . 2012
, 12.6 .

, ,
. 2011 7.3 2012 8.9
, .
,
2012 25.6 . ,
2011 ,
,
. 9.1 2012
12.8 . 2011 38.3
2012 10.3 .

,
2012 8.9 . 2011 7.3 .

- 2012 ,
2011 30.9 2012 7.7 , 28.6 .
2012 - 30 , 86
.

, 2012 42.6 , 3.6

. 2012 - 15.4 ,
.

2011 2012 5.1

. 2012 30
2011 .
2013
.

- 2009
2012 15.7 . 7-8
, ,
, . ,
- 2013
.
, ,
,

( 3). 2012 18 , 17-20
. , ,
, ,
1. ,
24 . 2012 68
16.3
.
, 2012 ,
.

2013 .
16
3- , .
.
23.9 32.2
, 9.2
. ,
32 . , , , , ,
.
. -
.

21 .
70 . - 2011
30- 300 , - .

-
.

,

.

1: - (, )
2: - , (
)

/, /,

2012 .
3: ,
( )

2013 .
4: , 2005
(3 , )
,

, ,

: , .

2013 13
.

.
, , -
. - 7.9
7.7 .

. :

, . ,
2013 30-40 .
, 2021
.
9


.
2013
.

. -
2012 ,
. , -
, ,

.

, . 1.5
.
. - 12
.
,
.

,

.

2012 . 2012

( 5). 2012 12- - 14.0 ,
. 2013
, 11.3 , 9.8
. ,
. ,
10.5 9.6 .
30 2013 3-
9.5 . 2 2012 32.5 ,
,
( 6). ,
. , ,
,
, . 2013 ,
, 28.8
10.1 . 11-

. , 2012 2013
2

- - ,
. , ,
, .

10


16
.
, 2013 . 2012
, ,
24.5 12- 5.3 .
2012 -
2012
. 2013 , ,
5.8 .
.
2012 ,

10 .
,

, . 10
,
. .
2013 3- 12- 6
, . ,
16 . .
, ,
. ( 1- .)

2013 , 3-
.
5: (,
)
,

2012
2013
.
6:
(, )

, , .

,
,

(, )
-

: , .

11


1:
, ,
2012 10-
. . : 1)
, ; 2)
; 3) , ; 4)
, . 720
.
. 2013 2- 229.6
, ,
.

. 2012 10- 105.3
3.8 , 11 .


. , -
, .
20 .
90 - .

.
, ,
, , ,
,
.

, . -
20 , - 60 .
, , 122 3.8
, . ,
2013 2- .

,
, .

. :

.
.

,
.

.
,
.
12



.
.

.
.

.

.

: .

,
2012 , - 8.4
13 ( 7). 2008-2009
- 5
.
, . 2012
2012
, 12.1 .

,
.

.
.

, , .
, 2012 10.8 , 2011 43
, 26 ( 8).
6.7 .
.
,
.

2012 , 3 1.3
35.6 , 800 . 40
2012 15 .
. 50 ,
46.4 , 62.6 . 2011
28.2 2012 16.4
( 9).

,
, , .
3

13

2012 29.1 - .
, 49 ,
35 .
( )
- 5.6 .

2012 22 ,
. - 2009 35 2012
42.5 .
37.6 .
49.2 , 16.8 .
2012 , 126 .
62 (78.7 )-
2012 24.3 .

,
, .
2012 , 20
( 11).

.
.
, . ,
4 ,
,
, .
, 2012
, 5.7 .
2013 ;
- 2
7 .

. 2013 2012
. 2012 12 .
47 , 76
2012 (5.6 6.3 ) .

445 .
.
15-20 .
, 5
. 2013 - 6 , 7
.

2012 2009 2.5 .

14



.
.
2013 - 7 , 2013 13 .
2012
2012 - 10.4 .

. 720 2013 - 4
. 2013 2- 230
.

100%
.
2012 580 . .

,
. 2012
488.2 ,
,
.

,
. -
. ,
,

.

,
.
,
. ,

.

2013 , .
5.8
. 47

. , ,
15.7 , 16.5 , .
;
7.7 . ,
, ,
.

15

2012 - 7
, 13 .
7: (-
)

.
8: ,
(12 , - )
,

2012
.
9: (-
)
40

,to-

Mineral
Revenue
GDP (%)

35

Mineral Revenu to Total Revenue

(%) ,

()

30

()

2012 12
2013
.
10: 2012 , 2013
()
100

90.5
2012
2013

80

65.1

25

60

49.2

47.3

20
40

28

15
20

10

16.1

14.7
5.6

-4.1

6.3

0
PIT

0
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

80 .
11: (): 2012 2013

CIT

Import VAT
Excise Tax

Royalty

-20

2013
.
12: (-
)
2
0
2010

2011

2012

2013

-2
-4
-6
-8

-10
-12

Budget
Projection
WB Staff Projection (Revenue
shortage effect)

WB Staff Projection (off-budget
and
(

)
spending
Chinggis
bond
use
included)

: ,
.

( ,
)

16


2.
.
, , .
, ,
. ,
.

,
.
. , ,
, .
, ,
, .
, ,
,
.
.

. 2012 2012-2014
. ,
. ,
, ,
.
2012 ,
.
.
2012-2014 .
, ,
. ,
, ,
.

.

.
,
.
,
. .
, ,
.
.

,
2012 , 3.2
. , - 31.3 ( 13).
, .
9 , 2.1 2.4 .
17


. , 1.2 .
.
,
9 , 2012 ( 14).
1.8 , 14.7
2012 12- 16.3 .
- ,
. ,
33 ,
7.7 . 8.4 ,
2012 .
2012 8.4 .
2012 2.1
. ,
.
,
15.9 . 2012
43 .
2013 .

. 7.8
17.3 .

.
2012
. 2013
43 ( 15).
, 5.4 .
, ,
,
.
, 2013
. 17.8 ,
41 ( 16).
, 7.8 . 2012
33.6 .


.

2013
. 2013
.
, 2013
. -
18


. , -

. ,
2013 .

.
.
2012
.

,
.

13: (12
, . )

14: , (12
, . )
( )
( )
( )

.
15: (,
, )

2013 .
16: (,
, )

/

: , .

3:
2012 89 .
(43.4 ) (19.1 ), (7.7 )
(2.8 ) . , , 73
.
92.6 . (1.8 ) .

19


17: (2012 ,
)
, 20.7 %

18: (2012 ,
)

,
19.1 %

,
7.7 %

,
23.5%

, 18.5 %

, 2.8 %
,
5.9 %

,
3.0 %

,
8.7 %

,
3.3 %

,
24.5 %

/,
18.9 %

,
43.4 %

. , 2007 43
, , . 2012 ,
.

2006 . 2005 57.5
2007 33.2 . 2012 10.8 .
1:
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

66.8

67.9

66.4

81

89.2

89.2

43.0

32.9

26.4

26.6

20.0

19.1

12.4

23.6

17.7

6.2

2.3

2.8

6.2

7.3

16.0

30.3

46.7

43.4

2.8

4.0

6.0

5.3

5.2

7.7

33.2

39.7

33.6

19

10.8

10.8

13.5

8.9

10.2

7.4

5.3

12.1
2.1

23.7
1.6

16.4
1.5

6.1
1.1

2.3
1.1

2.8
0.7

: , .

. 2011
4.6 . 2012 17 , 3.8 . .
2013 ;
41 , 74 . 2013

42 .
. ,


.

20


2012 70
.

. 2012
, .
,
. C

. C
2012 5-
, , ,
49- ,
100
5 .
. 2013 1-
. , ,

.
.
C

, 2013 4- 19-
. 49-
- .
1.5 . ,
.
2012 12- 500 .
4.125 , 1 . 10 5.125
.
. 2013 2- 3.5
. , .
2 . 2011 10
( 20).

C
.

21

2013
, .
19:
( . )
500

2012

.
20: ( .
, )

400
( )
300

200

100

: , .

22


M,
,
.
2011 57.2 2012 23.9
2013 17 ( 21).
66 60 . ,
2012 ,
.
, .
60 24 , 2013 2- 26 .
,
.
, .
2011 12.0
2012 14.3 . 14.1 17.3 ,
11.8 16.1 .
2011 37.9 2012 47.7
.
,
.
2012 2012 2013
. 2011 41 2012 26.5
. 19.5 ,
46.7 ( 22). 2012

.
, 2012 10- .
, 10- .
2011 10.7 2012 12- , 11.7
. 2012 14
.

( 23). 2013
.
2011 4.5 2012 6.1 ,
. , 10.2 15.2
. .
, 2011 12- 15 18.2 .
, 2012 2- 7
.
, 2013
. 2012
, .
, , 13.25 ,
23


, 12 .
2013
. , 0.75 , 12.5
, 11.5 ( 24).
. , ,
,
.
2013
.
2013 , 1.1
. 2012 12- 405 .

. ,
.
2012 11- 2013 2- 230
. ,



. 850
( 400 , 450 ) 12
.
.

, .
M
.
21: M (
, )

, .
22: , (,
)
, ,
, ,

: Mo , .

24


,

.

M 2013

.

23: - ()

24:

-
.

14
13

.
.

1200

Central
Bank
Credit
to Banks
( , )
(RHS,
billions MNT)

1000

Policy Rate (LHS, %)

12

800

11

( , )

600

10
400

Jan/13

Mar/13

Nov/12

Jul/12

Sep/12

May/12

Jan/12

Mar/12

Nov/11

Jul/11

Sep/11

May/11

Jan/11

Mar/11

Nov/10

Jul/10

Sep/10

May/10

Jan/10

200
Mar/10

.
( , ).
,
, . 2012
75 . , - 25.2 ,
- 21.8 , - 20.5 , 9 .

, .
.
, 2011 23.4 2013
2- 23.9 , .
2010 30
. , 2011
36.2 , 34.2 .
, 2013 2- 104 , 2012 12- 87 , 2010 70
( 25).
2010 . (
), 2011 7.2 2012
5.8 . 2009-2010
2011 19.1
2012 6.2 ( 26).
2012 330 2013 2- 305
. ,
.

. 2012
. 30


. ,
25


,

. 2013 2-
25 .
, 100
.
25:
110

35

.
26: ,
()

105
100

30

95

24
22
20

90

25

85

18
16

80

20

14

:
NPLs:
Aggregate
NPLS: Private sector
NPLs:
Individuals

:
Principal in arrears: Aggregate
:
:

12

75

,
(,
Loan
to
Depost (%, LHS)
)

70

15

Liquidity Asset to Total Asset (%,

RHS)
,

65

Jan/13

Nov/12

Jul/12

( , )

8
6

10
Sep/12

May/12

Jan/12

Mar/12

Jul/11

Sep/11

May/11

Jan/11

Mar/11

Nov/10

Jul/10

Sep/10

May/10

Jan/10

Mar/10

Nov/11

(, )

60

10

4
2
0
Dec/09

Jun/10

Dec/10

Jun/11

Dec/11

Jun/12

Dec/12

: Mo , .

26


4: Mo
2013 1- 10-
,
.
,

( ) .

2008 ,
, .

. 2008-2009 ,
. ,
.

, 2012 11- 25- .
2008
2012 .
, .

,
2010 . , ,

, , ,
.

. ,
.
,
.
2013 1-
100 , .
, . 20
14,400 .
6 99
. 2011 31
. 2012
(20 ) 30 .
20 7
.

6

2010 800,000 .

. : (1)
( )
(2) ,
. 2012
: Ulrich H. Klueh, David S. Hoelscher, Michael Taylor
2006 " , , ",
251- . - 80
, 20 .
7

27


. , ,

.
.
.
,
,
.
: .

:


. 2013
20 ,
90 .
,
.
.
.
28


,
.
,

. 2010
- 0.5
. 2011 4.8 2012 , 7
, .
.
41 27 .
,
2011, 2012
.
,

. . :

,
.
, 2008-2009
.


. ,

.

.
, 2012
. , , ,
. - 20
.
.
,
.
, ,
.
, , , -

.

,
, .

,
. ; ,
, ;
29

, ,
.
,

. , ,
(, ) , .
,
, .
-
.
, , ,
, ,
.
,
, ,
.

,
( 4).

.
,
.
,
. 2013
,
. ,
,
. ,
(1) ,
(2) .

,

.
.

. ,

.
. ,


.

30

5: : ,

. 20-21-
.
,
.

. 2011 55 .
. 2006
.
, ,
, , ,
. .
2004-2008
. 2006, 2007 - 7 .
2008, 2010
, - 4 .
.
, . 1966
284 . , 12
.
, 50
80 , .
,

. 1980- 2007-2008 -
10 . 2002-2003
, 2008-2009
, . 2011 8,000 .
.
27: , - ():

10%
8%
6%

10000

,
-
Fiscal
Balance
to GDP(%)
()
Copper Price (US$/ton)
(. /)

9000

28: , -
():

8000
7000

4%

6000

2%

5000
4000

0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

3000

-2%
2000
-4%
-6%

: .

1000
0

: ,

31


, Keith Jeffereis (2013).

: ; , , 2012 8- .

32

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 .

2014 .

2015 .

-1.3

6.4

17.5

12.3

13.0

11.5

8.1

-3.3

10

9.7

7.2

26.3

15.3

5.7

1.9

14.3

9.4

14.2

11.5

9.0

8.0

35.5

36.6

45.1

42.5

39.2

30.3

37.1

40.3

35.5

35.1

-5.2

-4.8

-7.0

-4.1

-12.4

-10.0

-18.1

-18.1

-11.7

(- )

46.6

45.3

51.7

1,903

2,899

4,817.5

4,384.6

-25

52.8

66.2

-9.0

2,131

3,278

6,598.4

6,738.9

, ,
(, )
(,
)
(,
, )

(-
)
(-
)
(-
)

( .)
(, )
( .)
(, )

-32.3

53.8

101.3

2.1

( .)

-592.0

-886.7

-2,758.6

-3,215.3

(- )

-12.9

-14.3

-31.0

-31.3

( .)

1,037.6

1,629.7

4,620.1

3,835.1

(- ) (2)

43.2

28.2

26.1

29.4

1,328

2,288

2,457.1

4,090.7

4.0

4.2

4.9

5.8

(, )

-9.33

26.69

75.8

-7.5

( )

10.00

11.00

12.3

13.25

(/., )

1,443

1,257

1,395.4

1,392.1

-16.6

28.2

-5.6

8.0

, (
.)

(,
, , +
)
- 20 (2000=100,
)

1,229

2,931

4,059.0

3,443.9

33


( )

6,591

8,414.5

11,087.7

13,944.2

17,172.7

: , , , .

: (2013 3- ) 8

, , ,
. 1920- ,

15 .
80 .
, 160 ,
17 ( 6).
200 .
2010 28
9. 2012 19,217 2010 17.9
.
, ,
. , ,
, , , , ,

.
.
. : (1)
, ; (2)
, ,
; (3) , ,
; (4) ,
, , , ,
, .
, (
) .
, , , , ,
, ,

.
, ,
, .

. 2012 2-
Indaba .
9
, 2012 , 30- ; , 2011b, 23- ;
, 2011, 23- ).

34


6.
(Au). . 1990-2005
, 2005 5.9 .
, (Cu-Au-Mo). , , .
.
, .
(CaF2). , , 600 , .
.
. ,
.
(Co). ,
. , , , , ,
2004 . 160
.
(REE). , , , ,
. ,
, , , , .
(Ur). , , ,
. 1.3 62 . Estimated reserves to be 1.3 Mt, of which
62 Mt are proven. 1989-1993 ,
.
: Mdendi , .

. ,
, ,
.
.
, .
,
.
, .

, ( 7).
, ,
. ,
, -, - , ,
,
. 1990-
2000
.
-
, ,
, , .
7.

35

,
. : ( ,
), ( ),
(, ),
.


. ,
. ,
.
. ,
.

: , Indaba- , , 2013 2- .

, , ,
.


.

.

( 8).

,
,
.
8.

:
.
:
.
: , ,
-
. ,
, , ,
.
: , Indaba- , , 2013 2- .

, , ,
,
.

. ,

,

. ( 2011)
36


( 2012) .
, ,
.

, .
2013
.
2010 ,
,
.
.
,
, , .
, ,

,
. - .

.
, .

37