COOLING PRIZE PAPER

Numerical analysis of the effect of

rainfall infiltration on slope stability
Esteban Litvin, geotechnical engineer, Atkins
Introduction

Landslides constitute a major threat to both lives and property worldwide,

especially in tropical and subtropical areas such as South America, Africa
and the Far East. These regions are characterised by periods of prolonged
dry weather with periods of intense rainfall.
During dry periods negative pore-water pressures develop in the soils,
which have a stabilising effect. When dry periods are followed by intense
rainfall events, rainfall inltration leads to an increase in positive pore-water
pressures (a decrease in suctions) and a reduction in the shear strength on the
potential failure surface and slope failure is common.
To account for the inuence of negative pore-water pressure on soil strength
and hence on the factor of safety (FoS), Fredlund et al, 1978 developed a
modied form of the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion for unsaturated soils,
which is as follows:

= c + ( n u a ) tan + ( u a u w ) tan b

(Equation 1)
is an angle dening the increase in
where, n is the normal stress and
shear strength for an increase in matric suction and varies between 0 and .
Equation 1 is graphically presented in Figure 1.
The understanding of the inuence of the transient seepage in
unsaturated soils on slope stability is still quite poor in comparison to other

Case Study: Shek Kip Mei slope failure (Hong Kong)

Information about the landslide was obtained from the Report on the Shek
Kip Mei landslide of the 25 of August 1999 prepared by the Fugro Maunsell
Scott Wilson joint venture for the Hong Kong Geotechnical Engineering
Ofce in 2000 (FMSW, 2000). This report indicates that the failure took
place after a ve-day storm during which 641mm of rainfall was recorded
in the nearest raingauge (No K06) located 1km away from the slope. The
Monitoring data

Extended Mohr-Coulomb
failure envelope

at
r
(u ic s
a - uc
uw tio
) n

Shear stress ()

elements of geotechnical engineering. Finite element software like SEEP/

W or VADOSE/W provide a means to improve understanding of the
destabilisation mechanism of soil slopes under transient seepage analysis.
However, using such software does not guarantee that the obtained
solution is representative of the real process. To achieve an acceptable degree
of accuracy in the solution, the experience of the engineer plays a signicant
role.
The aim of this project was twofold to study the effect of suction loss
due to rainfall inltration on slope stability and to study the ability of SEEP/
W and SLOPE/W to predict pore-water pressures and slope failure.
The project used a real landslide as a case study. The nite element software
SEEP/W modelled both steady state and transient seepage analysis and the
limit equilibrium software SLOPE/W carried out the slope stability analysis.

Steady state analysis (initial condition)

Rainfall data

(ua - uw)f tan b

c

Transient analysis

PWP (To be used in SLOPE/W)

Variation of F0S with time

c
0

60

Time of instability first noted

at the northern portion of the slope

50

Elevation (m)

Figure 1: Extended Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion

Hourly rainfall (mm/hr)

Figure 3

Net normal stress ( - ua)

45

30

30

25

Completely
decomposed
granite

Slip surface
(FMSW, 2000)

Phr
(sugg eatic sur
f
este
d by ace
FMS
W)

20

10
0

Location of shotcrete

35

40

20

Location of crest drain

40

15
1

7 13 19 1

21.8.99

7 13 19 1

22.8.99

7 13 19 1

23.8.99

7 13 19 1

24.8.99

7 13 19

25.8.99

Granite bedrock
10

10

20

30

Time and date

Figure 2: Hourly rainfall recorded at raingauge No K06

38

40
Distance (m)

Figure 4: Geometry of the Shek Kip Mei slope

GROUND ENGINEERING MAY

2008

Geometry
Prior to failure, the slope consisted of an upper and lower slope. The upper
slope was 35m in height and was at an angle of 35. The lower slope was 21m
in height, had an average slope of 55 and comprised ve batters separated
by between 1m and 2m wide berms. The lower slope surface had a hard
cover consisting of sprayed concrete and between the slopes there was a
drain. However, the drain was poorly maintained and the hard cover had
deteriorated together these were proposed to be strong contributing factors
to the slope failure (FMSW, 2000). The slope geometry prior to failure can
be seen in Figure 4
A simplied model was used to study the effect of the rainfall inltration
on the slope stability as shown in Figure 5. A sensitivity analysis was
undertaken to determine the effect of the upper slope on the results. The
upper slope was found to have minimal effect on the results and therefore was
not included in the model.
Geology and soil parameters
The FMSW report indicates that the geology of the site consists of completely
decomposed granite (CDG) overlying fresh granite. The slope consists of
CDG with fresh granite at the base. Typical shear strength parameters of the
CDG are presented in Table 1 (FMSW, 2000).
Two additional soil parameters are required for each soil when undertaking
seepage analysis: the water retention curve (WRC) and the permeability
function (PC). The former describes the ability of the soil to store water under
changes of pore-water pressures, while the latter controls the soils ability to
transport water under both saturated and unsaturated conditions. Typical
WRC and PF for the CDG are presented in Figures 6 and 7 (FMSW, 2000).
Groundwater
Post-landslide monitoring data recovered from tensiometers and piezometers
Soil

c(kPa)

()

b()

(kN/m3)

CDG

38

15

20

Table 1: CDG Shear strength parameters

installed at the crest of the slope provided the pre-failure groundwater

conditions. This information indicates that the groundwater at the site is
located within, or close to, the fresh granite bedrock and that the measured
suctions were 85kPa at 5.5m below the crest level.
Boundary conditions
Different boundary conditions were used for the steady and the transient
analyses. In the steady state analysis, the side boundaries were specied as a
constant head boundary. On the right side, a head boundary was specied at
15mPD and on the left side at 26mPD (FMSW, 2000).
In the transient analysis, the top boundary was specied as a ux (recharge)
boundary (q). The degree of deterioration of the hard cover was modelled
using a ux boundary condition, which was a percentage (100%, 90%, 80%
and 75%) of the precipitation recorded by the raingauge (Hsu et al, 1983).
The simplied daily rainfall distributions used in the analyses are presented
in Figure 8.
Mesh and time step renement
Karthikeyan et al, 2000 and Tan et al, 2004 found that, when analysing
groundwater ow in unsaturated soils, oscillatory results are often observed
in the nite element solution. To avoid this problem, a mesh and time step
renement was undertaken. The aim of this analysis was to identify the size
of the mesh elements and time steps for which a convergent solution was
achieved.
For this study, a ux boundary 10 times larger than the real rainstorm
was used. The minimum FoS found in the transient analysis and the ratio
between this and the steady state FoS are presented in Figure 9. A mesh
having elements with an area of 0.5m by 0.5m and time steps of 360s gave
the minimum FoS and was selected for the analysis. Finer meshes were
considered, but these took several days to compute the results and therefore
the 0.5m by 0.5m mesh was considered the most practical (Figure 10).
Steady state results
The pore-water pressures generated by the steady state analysis were
determined using SEEP/W along two vertical sections located at crest and
3m behind it. These proles are shown in Figure 11.
The prole at the slope crest indicates that at depths between 5m and
6m below the surface, suctions vary between 82kPa and 89kPa, while the
prole 3m behind the crest shows the suctions vary between 72kPa and
81kPa. The
agreement between the predicted values and those measured
0
Log 10Log
(conductivity)
10 (conductivity)

hourly rainfall record between the 21-25 August is presented in Figure 2.

Steady state and transient seepage analyses modelled the effect of the
rainstorm on the stability of the slope. The steady state analysis modelled the
initial groundwater level. The results of this analysis, in terms of pore-water
pressures, were compared to the insitu pore-water pressure readings and
used as the initial condition in the transient analysis. The transient analysis
modelled the effects of the rainstorm. The results of the transient analysis
were used to study the effect of the rainstorm on the stability of the slope.
The methodology followed during this study is presented in Figure 3.

Completely decomposed
granite
Bedrock

0
-4
-4
-8
-8
-12
-12
-16
-16
-20
-20

0
0

1
1

10
10

100
100

1000
1000

10000

100000 1000000

Pore water pressure (kPa)

10000 100000 1000000
Pore water pressure (kPa)

Elevation (m)
40

30
Block No. 36

20

10

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Distance (m)

Figure 5: Shek Kip Mei model Geometry and slip surface denition

GROUND ENGINEERING MAY

2008

Volumetric
Volumetric
water water
content
content

Figure 6: CDG permeability function

0.3
0.25
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.05
0

10

100

1000

10000

100000 1000000

10

100

1000

10000

Suction (kPa)
100000 1000000

Figure 7: CDG water retention curve

Suction (kPa)

39

Daily rainfall (mm/h)

COOLING PRIZE PAPER

20

100% rainfall

18

90% rainfall

16

80% rainfall

14

75% rainfall

12
10
8
6
4
2
0

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

24

23

25

26

27
Day

Ratio (MinFoS/SSFoS)

Figure 8: Rainfall scenarios

0.8

1x1

0.5x0.5

2x2

5x5

0.75
0.7
0.65

insitu (85kPa) demonstrates the ability of SEEP/W to predict the correct

pore-water pressures when the proper mesh and boundary conditions are
used.
In addition, the FoS of the slope in steady state conditions was calculated
in two different ways the difference being that in one of the analyses
the contribution of the negative pore-water pressures was not taken into
account.
The aim was to prove that suction distribution within the ground played
an important role in keeping the Shek Kip Mei stable. In SLOPE/W, if
b is undened, any negative pore-water pressure is ignored. If a non-zero
value of b is specied, then Equation 1 is used in SLOPE/W and an extra
strength component dependent on the suctions is added to the slice base
shear strength.
When suctions were not included in the slope stability calculations
(b=0), the FoS was found to be 0.964, which indicated that the slope was
unstable. However, when the suctions were included in the calculations
(b=15), the FoS was 1.197, conrming the importance of the negative
pore-water pressure on the slope stability.
Transient analysis results
The results from this analysis are shown in Figures 12 and 13. The suction
proles presented on Figure 13 were taken along a vertical section at the
crest of the slope. To take into account the effect of suction on the slope
stability, a b=15 was used in SLOPE/W.
The variation of pore-water pressures and the slopes FoS followed the
same pattern. During modelling for rainfall, a drop in suction was predicted
within the slope, which in turn led to a decrease in the computed FoS. When

0.55
0.5

3600

1800

900

360

200
Time step (S)

Elevation (m)

0.6

Figure 9: Mesh and time step renement result

3m behind the crest

At the crest

40
36

32

Monitoring level

28
Measured
85kPa

SeepW predicted 84kPa

24
SeepW predicted 79kPa
20
-150

0.5m by 0.5m mesh

-100

-50

50

100

Steady state pore water pressures (PWP (kPa)

Figure 11: SEEP/W pore-water pressure predictions

FoS

Variation of FoS:

1.25

75% rainfall

90% rainfall

80% rainfall

100% rainfall

1.2
1.15
1.1

After the 4th day of rainfall

1.05
1

8h
16
h
2
2 4h
da
4 ys
da
8 ys
d
16 ays
d
24 ays
d
38 ays
da
ys

After the last rainfall period

SS
AR
F
BR 1
F2
AR
F
AR 2
F
AR 3
F4
BR
S
AR
S
1h

0.9

4h

0.95

2h

1m by 1m mesh

Time

Figure 10: 0.5m by 0.5m and 1m by 1m meshes

40

Figure 12: Variation of FoS with time for the four rainfall scenarios

GROUND ENGINEERING MAY

2008

modelling for dry periods, an increase in negative pore-water pressured was

observed which led to an increase in the slopes FoS.
The results indicate that the slope failure took place after the fourth day
of rainfall. This is in agreement with the FMSW report, which indicates
that the slope failure took place between the fourth and the fth day of the
rainstorm.
The SEEP/W and SLOPE/W predictions agree with the FMSW report not
only on the time, but also on the type of failure. According to the numerical
analysis results, it was a deep rotational failure passing through the slopes
toe. The maximum depth at which the soil was mobilised was 7.5m and the
slide volume was found to be 2700m3. These values were in accordance with
the slope failure diagnosis described in the FMSW report, which indicates
that the displaced mass was about 2500m3, having a maximum depth of
approximately 8m.

Conclusions

Elevation (m)

Numerical analysis has been used to enhance the understanding of the

effect of suction loss due to rainfall inltration on slope stability. The results
conrm that soil suction can have an important contributory effect on the
stability of slopes.
If the designer intends to include for the benecial effect of the negative
pore-water pressures in the slope stability analysis, it is imperative that the
appropriate drainage system is in place and that it is properly maintained
during the design life of the slope.
SEEP/W proved to be a valuable tool for predicting pore-water pressures
when the soil properties and the ground conditions are known. Nevertheless,
such accuracy in the results would not have been achievable without carrying

40

Pore water pressure (rainfall 100%)

out a mesh and time step renement prior to performing the numerical
analysis. In addition, it has been proved that, when combined with SEEP/
W, SLOPE/W is a reliable tool for slope stability analysis in unsaturated
conditions.
Numerical analysis can be a very reliable means of determining the effect
of rainfall inltration on slope stability. However, the use of nite element
software should always be combined with engineering judgment in order to
achieve better understanding of both the problem and the solution.

References

1. Fugro Maunsell Scott Wilson Joint Venture for the geotechnical Engineering Ofce, Government of Hong Kong. FMSW (2000) Report on the Shek Kip
Mei landslide of the 25 of August 1999.
2. Geo-Slope International, 1998a. SEEP/W for Finite Element Seepage Analysis Vol. 4, Users Manual. Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
3. Geo-Slope International, 1998b. SLOPE/W for Slope Stability Analysis Vol.
4, Users Manual. Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
4. Hsu, S.I., Lam, K.C. & Chan, K.S., 1983. A Study of Soil Moisture and Runoff Variation in Hillslopes. Occasional paper No. 45, Department of Geography, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 57p.
5. Karthikeyan, M., Tan, T.S. & Phoon K.K., 2001. Numerical Oscillations in
Seepage Analysis of Unsaturated Soils. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, Vol.38,
pp.639-651.
6. Tan, T.S., Phoon, K.K & Chong, P.C., 2004. Numerical Study of Finite
Element Method Based-Solutions for Propagation of Wetting Fronts in Unsaturated Soil. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenviromental Engineering, Vol.
130(3), pp.254-263.

40
Before 1st day rainfall
After 1st day rainfall
Before 2nd day rainfall
After 2nd day rainfall
After 3rd day rainfall
After 4th day rainfall
Before triggering rainfall
After triggering rainfall
After 38 days

35
30
25
20

30
25
20
15

10

10

5
-100

-50

50

100

150

200

Steady state
After 1st day rainfall
Before 2nd day rainfall
After 2nd day rainfall
After 3rd day rainfall
After 4th day rainfall
Before triggering rainfall
After triggering rainfall
After 38 days

35

15

0
-150

Pore water pressure (rainfall 90%)

250

0
-150

-100

-50

50

100

150

Elevation (m)

PWP (kPa)

40

Pore water pressure (rainfall 80%)

Steady state
After 1st day rainfall
Before 2nd day rainfall
After 2nd day rainfall
After 3rd day rainfall
After 4th day rainfall
Before triggering storm
After triggering storm
After 38 days

30
25
20

25
20

10

10

5
-50

50

100

150

200

250

PWP (kPa)

Steady state
After 1 day rainfall
Before 2nd day rainfall
After 2nd day rainfall
After 3rd day rainfall
After 4th day rainfall
Before triggering storm
After triggering rainfall
After 38 days

30

15

-100

Pore water pressure (rainfall 75%)

35

15

0
-150

250

PWP (kPa)

40

35

200

0
-150

-100

-50

50

100

150

200

250

PWP (kPa)

Figure 13: Pore-water pressure variation

GROUND ENGINEERING MAY

2008

41