1.3 Ejemplo Italia

BASICS OF SEISMOLOGY AND SEISMIC HAZARD
ASSESSMENT
PROJECT
Region # 5
Jos Velsquez
Lisa Moon
Eren Vuran
Clara Caponi
November, 2006
Pavia, Italy
Basics of Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment
Table of Contents
1
2
4
5
6
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1
Completeness Period of Catalogue ................................................................................ 2
2.1
Magnitude 4.30 4.59 ........................................................................................... 2
2.2
Magnitude 4.60 4.89 ........................................................................................... 3
2.3
Magnitude 4.90 5.19 ........................................................................................... 3
2.4
Magnitude 5.20 5.49 ............................................................................................ 4
2.5
Magnitude 5.50 5.79 ............................................................................................ 4
2.6
Magnitude 5.80 6.09 ............................................................................................ 5
2.7
Magnitude 6.10 6.39 ............................................................................................ 5
2.8
Magnitude 6.40 6.69 ............................................................................................ 6
2.9
Magnitude 6.70 6.99 ............................................................................................ 6
2.10 Comparison of Completeness ................................................................................ 6
Annual Seismicity Rate and Gutenberg Richter Recurrence Relationship ................... 7
3.1
Initial Seismicity Rates .......................................................................................... 7
3.1.1
Zone 1 ............................................................................................................ 7
3.1.2
Zone 2 ............................................................................................................ 8
3.1.3
Zone 3 ............................................................................................................ 9
3.1.4
Gutenberg Richter Law ............................................................................... 10
3.2
Adjusted Seismicity Rates ................................................................................... 10
3.2.1
Zone 1 .......................................................................................................... 11
3.2.2
Zone 3 .......................................................................................................... 12
3.2.3
Gutenberg Richter Law ............................................................................... 13
Minimum and Maximum Magnitudes and Activity Rate............................................ 13
Maximum Expected Magnitude using SCENA .......................................................... 14
CRISIS 2003 ................................................................................................................ 15
6.1
Generation of Hazard Map for a Region ............................................................. 15
6.2
Hazard Map for a Specific Site............................................................................ 18
6.3
Response Spectrum for Potenza city 475 year Return Period ......................... 19
Observations and Conclusions .................................................................................... 21
7.1
Vesuvius Volcano influence ................................................................................ 21
7.2
Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 22
References ................................................................................................................... 23
Page i
List of Figures
Figure 1-1 - Map of Region 5 ................................................................................................ 1
Figure 2-1 - Combined Catalogue ......................................................................................... 2
Figure 2-2 - Completeness Period MW: 4.30 - 4.59 ............................................................... 2
Figure 2-3 - Completeness Period Mw: 4.60 - 4.89 ............................................................... 3
Figure 2-6 Completeness Period Mw: 5.50 - 5.79............................................................... 4
Figure 2-7 - Completeness Period Mw: 5.80 - 6.09 .............................................................. 5
Figure 2-9 - Completeness Period MW: 6.40 - 6.69 ............................................................... 6
Figure 2-10 - Completeness Period MW: 6.7-6.69 ................................................................. 6
Figure 3-1- Zone 1 Initial Recurrence Relationship .............................................................. 8
Figure 3-2 - Zone 2 Recurrence Relationship ....................................................................... 9
Figure 3-3 - Zone 3 Initial Recurrence Relationship ........................................................... 10
Figure 3-4 - Zone 1 Adjusted Recurrence Relationship ...................................................... 11
Figure 3-5 - Zone 3 Adjusted Recurrence Relationship ...................................................... 12
Figure 6-1 - Seismogenic zones in the program CRISIS .................................................... 15
Figure 6-2 Hazard map computed for the site in the CRISIS program ............................ 17
Figure 6-3 - Hazard Map Computed by INGV for Return Period of 475 years .................. 18
Figure 6-4 - PGA Hazard Curve for Potenza ...................................................................... 18
Figure 6-5 - Response Spectrum for Potenza ...................................................................... 19
Figure 6-6 - Comparison of the Response Spectra for Potenza........................................... 20
Figure 6-7 - Comparison of the Response Spectra for Napoli ............................................ 21
Figure 7-1 - A Space Shuttle Photo of Vesuvius ................................................................. 21
Figure 7-2 - Hazard Map Computed by INGV for Campania............................................. 22
List of Tables
Table 1-1 Region 5 Zonal Coordinates............................................................................... 1
Table 2-1 - Completeness of Magnitude Categories ............................................................. 6
Table 3-1 - Zone 1 Initial Seismicity Parameters .................................................................. 7
Table 3-4 - Gutenberg Richter Coefficients ........................................................................ 10
Table 3-5 - Zone 1 Adjusted Seismicity Parameters ........................................................... 11
Table 3-6 - Zone 1 Gutenberg Richter Coefficients ............................................................ 11
Table 3-7 - Zone 3 Adjusted Seismicity Parameters ........................................................... 12
Table 3-8 - Zone 3 Gutenberg Richter Coefficients ............................................................ 12
Table 3-9 - Gutenberg Richter Coefficients ........................................................................ 13
Table 4-1 - Mmin and N(Mmin).............................................................................................. 13
Table 5-1 - Input File Data .................................................................................................. 14
Table 5-2 - Output File Data ............................................................................................... 14
Table 5-3 - Maximum Magnitude - Observed and Calculated ............................................ 14
Table 6-1 - Input Data for SCENA and CRISIS ................................................................. 16
Table 6-2 - Annual Rate of Exceedance for Potenza City................................................... 19
Table 6-3 - Response Spectra for Potenza ........................................................................... 20
Page ii
1 Introduction
Using the program CRISIS2003, a PSHA was performed for the region of Southern
Apennines in Italy. The coordinates of the seismogenic zones considered are given in
Table 1-1.
Table 1-1 Region 5 Zonal Coordinates
Southern Apennines
Coordinates
Zone 1
14.85
16.00
16.00
14.85
Zone 2
42.00
42.00
41.30
41.30
14.00
15.60
15.60
14.00
Zone 3
41.20
41.20
40.50
40.50
Figure 1-1 - Map of Region 5
Page 1
15.37
16.10
16.10
15.37
40.37
40.37
40.17
40.17
2 Completeness Period of Catalogue

The catalogues for each of the zones was extracted from the full Italian catalogue. The
catalogues for the three seismic zones were combined to determine the completeness
period for different magnitude ranges. The complete catalogue is shown in Figure 2-1.
Combined catalogue (up to 2002) for Region 5
140
Cumulative number of earthquakes
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
1450
1550
1650
1750
1850
1950
Year of the events
Figure 2-1 - Combined Catalogue
Figure 2-2 to Figure 2-10 show the completeness range for each magnitude range. The
years at which completeness was assessed to begin are given in Table 2-1.
2.1
Magnitude 4.30 4.59

Combined catalogue (up to 2002). Magnitude MW range: 4.30 - 4.59
4
Cumulative number of earthquakes
Time window of completeness
(1983, 3)
3
(1936, 1)
0
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
Year of Events
Figure 2-2 - Completeness Period MW: 4.30 - 4.59
Page 2
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986

This magnitude range shown in Figure 2-2 contains only three events, so determining a
completeness period cannot be done in the usual manner. Instead, since the first event
occurs as late as 1936, it was assumed that the Italian Catalogue was complete by this time,
so the completeness period was chosen to include all events.
2.2
Magnitude 4.60 4.89

50
(1992, 44)
Cumulative Number of Earthquakes
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
(1895, 12)
5
0
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year of Events
Figure 2-3 - Completeness Period Mw: 4.60 - 4.89
The magnitude range 4.60 to 4.89, shown in Figure 2-3, contains many more events than
the previous range, and so completeness is easier to estimate. There is a clear change in
slope beginning with the 1895 earthquake event, which led to the conclusion that
completeness began here. The time interval between this event and the previous is at least
three times as great as any time intervals in the completeness period, suggesting that before
1895 there was not just a low seismicity period, but that the catalogue was just not
complete.
2.3
Magnitude 4.90 5.19

45
(1996, 42)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
(1779, 11)
5
0
1500
1520
1540
1560
1580
1600
1620
1640
1660
1680
1700
1720
1740
1760
1780
1800
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
Year of Events
Page 3
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
This magnitude range in Figure 2-4 was considered to be complete at 1779, which
corresponds to an increase in the slope of the plot, and therefore an increase in recorded
seismic activity. Although there is a later time period of about 40 years where no events
are recorded, it was assumed that this was a low seismic time period, since the rate of
events previous to this gap was similar to rates in the more recent past.
2.4
Magnitude 5.20 5.49

8
(1995, 7)
(1841, 3)
2
0
1500
1520
1540
1560
1580
1600
1620
1640
1660
1680
1700
1720
1740
1760
1780
1800
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Year of Events
The completeness period for the magnitude range 5.2 5.49, shown in Figure 2-5, was not
so easy to determine, due to the low number of events in this category. However, there
seemed to be a fairly clear gap between events two and three, and from event three
onwards, the rate seemed to be much more consistent. Therefore, considering this and the
technology that was available by this time, the completeness period was defined to begin in
1841.
2.5
Magnitude 5.50 5.79

7

(2002, 6)
(1889, 4)
0
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
Year of Events
Figure 2-6 Completeness Period Mw: 5.50 - 5.79
Page 4
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100

The completeness period for Figure 2-6 is again difficult to define, due to low amounts of
data. The plot clearly displays bi-linear behaviour, so this change in slope was considered
to be the beginning of the completeness period.
2.6
Magnitude 5.80 6.09

8

(1990, 7)
(1853, 4)
3
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
Year of Events
As with the previous category, there were few events in Figure 2-7, and those that did
occur again followed an almost bi-linear trend.
2.7
Magnitude 6.10 6.39

5
(1962, 4)
4
(1561, 1)
0
1500
1520
1540
1560
1580
1600
1620
1640
1660
1680
1700
1720
1740
1760
1780
1800
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Year of Events
For this magnitude range, again the whole record was considered to be complete as the
slope for the first two intervals was fairly consistent, and decreased for the final interval.
Page 5

2.8
Magnitude 6.40 6.69

3
(1732, 2)
2
(1456, 1)
0
1400 1420 1440 1460 1480 1500 1520 1540 1560 1580 1600 1620 1640 1660 1680 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year of Events
Figure 2-9 - Completeness Period MW: 6.40 - 6.69
Considering the completeness period for a range containing only two events is
meaningless, but due to lack of other information, the record was considered complete.
2.9
Magnitude 6.70 6.99

6
(1980, 5)
(1627, 1)
0
1600
1620
1640
1660
1680
1700
1720
1740
1760
1780
1800
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Year of Events
Figure 2-10 - Completeness Period MW: 6.7-6.69
Similarly, for the range of the largest magnitudes, there were very few events recorded,
and the entire catalogue was taken as the completeness period.
2.10 Comparison of Completeness
Magnitude
Range
4.30 4.59
Year of
Completeness
1936
Table 2-1 - Completeness of Magnitude Categories

4.604.905.205.505.806.104.89
5.19
5.49
5.79
6.09
6.39
1895
1779
1841
Page 6
1889
1853
1561
6.406.69
6.707.00
1456
1627

Generally, it is expected that completeness occurs later for smaller magnitude events, as
these are more difficult to record, and therefore required the introduction of more
sophisticated technologies as opposed to larger magnitude events. However, the values in
Table 2-1 do not entirely follow this trend, due mainly to the erroneous number of events
in some of the considered categories. Generally they follow the trend, but there are a
couple of values which are inconsistent. However, since there was little other information
available to consider alternative means of determining completeness, the above values
were used.
3 Annual Seismicity Rate and Gutenberg Richter Recurrence

Relationship
For each of the three zones, the seismicity rate for each of the magnitude categories was
computed. However, in some magnitude ranges there were very small numbers, only one,
or even no events, and so the small number of events in some of the magnitude ranges
presented some problems. Table 3-1, Table 3-2 and Table 3-3 give the rate of occurrence
for the three zones, and Figure 3-1, Figure 3-2 and Figure 3-3 show the recurrence
relationships for the three zones.
3.1
Initial Seismicity Rates

3.1.1 Zone 1
Table 3-1 shows the initial seismicity for Zone 1, assuming the original magnitude
categories. Figure 3-1 shows the recurrence relationship for this data.
Table 3-1 - Zone 1 Initial Seismicity Parameters
Magnitude
4.30 4.59
4.604.89
4.905.19
5.205.49
5.505.79
5.806.09
6.106.39
6.406.69
6.707.00
Average
Magnitude of
Range
4.45
4.75
5.05
5.35
5.65
5.95
6.25
6.55
6.85
1936
1895
1779
1841
1889
1853
1561
1456
1627
66
107
223
161
113
149
441
546
375
14
13
11
11
0.1028
0.0493
0.0248
0.0265
0.0067
0.0023
0.0000
0.0027
0.2152
0.6672
0.1124
0.9494
0.0630
1.2004
0.0382
1.4180
0.0116
1.9338
0.0049
2.3068
0.0027
2.5740
0.0027
2.5740
Year of
Completeness
Years since
Completeness
Events before
Completeness
Total
Number of
Events
Events since
Completeness
Rate Of
Occurrence
log()
Page 7

Zone 1 - Recurrence relationship - Initial Groupings
0.0
-0.5
log()
-1.0
-1.5
log(v) = 4.1214 -1.0042M

-2.0
-2.5
-3.0
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
Magnitude MW
Figure 3-1- Zone 1 Initial Recurrence Relationship
Clearly, two of the magnitude categories have no events, and another two contain only 1
event, which cannot really give an accurate activity rate. The resulting recurrence
relationship is then also bi-linear, with the same rate of exceedence for two magnitude
categories.
3.1.2 Zone 2
Table 3-2 presents the seismicity parameters for Zone 2, while Figure 3-2 shows the
recurrence rate.
Magnitude
4.30 4.59
4.604.89
4.905.19
5.205.49
5.505.79
5.806.09
6.106.39
6.406.69
6.707.00
Average
Magnitude of
Range
4.45
4.75
5.05
5.35
5.65
5.95
6.25
6.55
6.85
1936
1895
1779
1841
1889
1853
1561
1456
1627
66
107
223
161
113
149
441
546
375
24
27
17
19
0.0455
0.1589
0.0852
0.0062
0.0000
0.0201
0.0068
0.0037
0.0080
0.3343
0.4758
0.2889
0.5393
0.1300
0.8860
0.0448
1.3486
0.0386
1.4134
0.0386
1.4134
0.0185
1.7336
0.0117
1.9332
0.0080
2.0969
Year of
Completeness
Years since
Completeness
Events before
Completeness
Total
Number of
Events
Events since
Completeness
Rate Of
Occurrence
log()
Page 8
Zone 2 - Recurrence relationship

0.0
-0.5
log(v)
-1.0
log(v) = 2.5849 -0.6903M

-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
4.0
4.2
4.6
4.4
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.8
5.6
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
Magnitude MW
Figure 3-2 - Zone 2 Recurrence Relationship
Although this zone also has one magnitude range that is not represented, the general trend
of the data is linear.
3.1.3 Zone 3
Table 3-7 shows the seismicity parameters for Zone 3, using the initial Magnitude
categories, and Figure 3-3 shows the recurrence relationship.
Magnitude
4.30 4.59
4.604.89
4.905.19
5.205.49
5.505.79
5.806.09
6.106.39
6.406.69
6.707.00
Average
Magnitude of
Range
4.45
4.75
5.05
5.35
5.65
5.95
6.25
6.55
6.85
1936
1895
1779
1841
1889
1853
1561
1456
1627
66
107
223
161
113
149
441
546
375
0.0467
0.0090
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0027
0.0584
1.2339
0.0116
1.9342
0.0027
2.5740
0.0027
2.5740
0.0027
2.5740
0.0027
2.5740
0.0027
2.5740
0.0027
2.5740
Year of
Completeness
Years since
Completeness
Events before
Completeness
Total
Number of
Events
Events since
Completeness
Rate Of
Occurrence
log()
Page 9
Zone 3 - Recurrence relationship - Initial Groupings

0.0
-0.5
log(v)
-1.0
-1.5
log(v) = 0.5689 - 0.4992M

-2.0
-2.5
-3.0
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
Magnitude MW
Figure 3-3 - Zone 3 Initial Recurrence Relationship
The lack of events that occurred in Zone 3 clearly shows in both the table and the figure.
Of the nine magnitude categories only three were represented, and even then by only a
small number of events. Five consecutive empty ranges make the graph bi-linear as
opposed to linear.
3.1.4 Gutenberg Richter Law
The best fit lines for the recurrence relationships for the three zones represent the
Gutenberg Richter law, a linear law which takes the form
log( ) = a b.m
The parameters a and b for each of the zones are summarised in Table 3-9.
Table 3-4 - Gutenberg Richter Coefficients
a
b
4.1214
1.0042
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
3.2
2.5849
0.5689
0.6903
0.4992
Adjusted Seismicity Rates
Since both Zones 1 and 3 have non-linear recurrence relationships due to the definition of
magnitude ranges, it was decided to reclassify some of the magnitude ranges to try to
produce a more linear recurrence relationship. For Zone 1, the highest two magnitude
ranges were combined to form a category MW 6.4; for this range the completeness value
for the category 6.70 MW 6.99 was used as it was considered more reliable than that for
6.40 MW 6.69 as it contained more data points. For Zone 3, where there were only eight
events after catalogue completeness, the categories were extended to 4.00 MW 4.99,
5.00 MW 5.99 and 6.00 MW 6.99. The adjusted seismicity rates and recurrence
relationships are given in Table 3-5, Figure 3-4, Table 3-7 and Figure 3-5.
Page 10

3.2.1 Zone 1
Table 3-5 - Zone 1 Adjusted Seismicity Parameters
Magnitude
4.30 4.59
4.604.89
4.905.19
5.205.49
5.505.79
5.806.09
6.106.39
6.407.00
Average
Magnitude of
Range
4.45
4.75
5.05
5.35
5.65
5.95
6.25
6.70
1936
1895
1779
1841
1889
1853
1561
1627
66
107
223
161
113
149
441
375
14
13
11
11
0.1028
0.0493
0.0248
0.0265
0.0067
0.0023
0.0027
0.2152
0.6672
0.1124
0.9494
0.0630
1.2004
0.0382
1.4180
0.0116
1.9338
0.0049
2.3068
0.0027
2.5740
Year of
Completeness
Years since
Completeness
Events before
Completeness
Total Number of
Events
Events since
Completeness
Rate Of
Occurrence
log()
Zone 1 - Recurrence relationship - Adjusted Groupings

0.0
-0.5
log(v)
-1.0
-1.5
log(v) = 4.2759 -1.0323M

-2.0
-2.5
-3.0
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
Magnitude MW
Figure 3-4 - Zone 1 Adjusted Recurrence Relationship
Although there are still categories of magnitude that contain only one event, due to the
distribution of events with respect to magnitude it would be difficult to separate the data in
a more even way. Therefore, it was these slightly adjusted values that were used to find the
final recurrence rate for Zone 1. A comparison of the initial and adjusted coefficients is
given in Table 3-6.
Table 3-6 - Zone 1 Gutenberg Richter Coefficients
a
b
4.1214
1.0042
initial values
4.2759
1.0323
corrected values
Page 11

3.2.2 Zone 3
Table 3-7 and Figure 3-5 show the adjusted seismicity parameters and recurrence
relationships for Zone 3.
Table 3-7 - Zone 3 Adjusted Seismicity Parameters
Magnitude
4.00-4.99
5.00-5.99
6.00-7.00
Average Magnitude
of Range
4.50
5.50
6.50
Year of Completeness
1895
1779
1456
107
223
546
Rate Of Occurrence
0.0467
0.0090
0.0018
log()
0.0575
-1.2401
0.0108
-1.9666
0.0018
-2.7372
Years since
Completeness
Events before
Completeness
Total Number of
Events
Events since
Completeness
Zone 3 - Recurrence relationship - Adjusted Groupings

0.0
-0.5
log(v)
-1.0
-1.5
log(v) = 2.1357 - 0.7485M

-2.0
-2.5
-3.0
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
Magnitude MW
Figure 3-5 - Zone 3 Adjusted Recurrence Relationship
Table 3-8 - Zone 3 Gutenberg Richter Coefficients

a
b
0.5689
0.4992
initial values
2.1357
0.7485
corrected values
Although the results taken from Zone 3 could still be considered quite erroneous, these
readjusted values better represented the expected linearity of the recurrence relationship.
Page 12

3.2.3 Gutenberg Richter Law
The adjusted Gutenberg Richter parameters a and b for each of the zones are summarised
in Table 3-9.
Table 3-9 - Gutenberg Richter Coefficients
a
b
4.2759
1.0323
Zone 1
2.5849
0.6903
Zone 2
2.1357
0.7485
Zone 3
Slope b for Zones 2 and 3 are similar, so despite small number of events in Zone 3, the
relationship between numbers of large and small earthquakes is similar for the two close
zones. The smaller value of a represents the smaller number of events that occur in the
zone.
4 Minimum and Maximum Magnitudes and Activity Rate

The minimum magnitude was defined as 4.2. Although the minimum observed value was
4.4, the completeness of the catalogue was not so reliable for the lower magnitude events,
so it was considered likely that a lower value could be taken. Since 4.0 was the minimum
value available in Crisis 2003, the mid point between this value and the lowest observed
was calculated.
Using this value, and the Gutenberg Richter coefficients, the activity rate, N(Mmin), was
found for each zone using the following equation:
N (M min ) = 10 a b.M Min
These results are presented in Table 4-1.
Table 4-1 - Mmin and N(M min)
Mmin
N(Mmin)
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
4.2
4.2
4.2
0.8714
0.4849
0.0982
The activity rate, N(Mmin), was predictably low for Zone 3, due to the small number of
events that occurred in it. Since the rates are not normalised by area, all other things being
equal, the smallest source would be expected to produce the smallest activity rate.
Page 13
5 Maximum Expected Magnitude using SCENA

In order to determine the maximum expected magnitude, the program SCENA was used.
In the predisposed input file, the following data were inserted for each zone:
-
maximum magnitude observed

minimum magnitude observed
standard deviation of magnitude
b-value of Gutenberg Richter relationship
standard deviation of b-value
activity rate
(Mmax obs)
(Mmin obs)
(SD_magn)
(b-value)
(SD_b-value)
N(Mmin)
The input file data are summarized in Table 5-1.

Table 5-1 - Input File Data
Input parameter
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Mmin
Mmax
SD_magn
b-value
SD_bvalue
4.200
6.730
0.479
1.032
0.059
4.200
6.890
0.661
0.690
0.053
4.200
6.960
0.755
0.749
0.013
The results from SCENA for the maximum expected magnitude are shown Table 5-2.
Table 5-2 - Output File Data
Output
parameter
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Mmax exp
6.91
7.01
7.78
SD_M exp
0.54
0.71
1.05
The values were compared with the value obtained using an empirical method. In this case
the maximum magnitude was calculated by the sum of the observed maximum magnitude
plus 0.3. However, it is important to emphasise that this method is not applicable in this
case since one requirement for this formula is the existence of a very long period of
completeness (about 1000 years). For this case a general completeness period o 300 years
is used as suggested by Professor Slejko. The values are given in Table 5-3.
Table 5-3 - Maximum Magnitude - Observed and Calculated
Parameter
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Mmax obs
6.73
6.89
6.96
Mmax exp (SCENA)
6.91
7.01
7.78
Mmax exp (EMPIRICAL

METHOD)
7.03
7.19
7.26
For Zone 1 and Zone 2, the value of maximum magnitude given by SCENA or by
empirical method are reasonably close, and in both case the value of empirical method was
Page 14

greater than that obtained using SCENA. However, for the Zone 3, the situation is
reversed, with a large difference between the two values.
6 CRISIS 2003
6.1 Generation of Hazard Map for a Region
A hazard map was generated in terms of PGA for the Southern Apennines Region of Italy.
The software used for this purpose was CRISIS 2003 (Ordaz et al. 2003). CRISIS 2003
computes seismic hazard using a probabilistic model that considers the rates of occurrence,
attenuation characteristics and geographical distribution of earthquakes. The main features
of the program include the following: (a) earthquake occurrence can be modelled either as
a Poisson process or as a Characteristic Earthquake process; (b) sources can be modelled as
areas, lines or points; (c) attenuation models furnished by the user give flexibility to the
computations.
The area of study consists of an area 2 by 2 degrees. This contains the 3 seismogenic zones
previously described. The step used for the probabilistic hazard assessment was 0.2
degrees in the spatial grid. The hazard map was computed for a Return Period of 475
years, which represents 10% chance of exceedance of a specified peak ground
accelerations (shown in the map) during a design period of 50 years (Poisson model). The
Italy map and the location of the seismogenic zones are shown in Figure 6-1, as input in
the program CRISIS 2003.
Figure 6-1 - Seismogenic zones in the program CRISIS
Page 15

It should be noted that these seismic sources do not overlap. This means that no
earthquakes have been considered twice in the Gutenberg Richter law. However, it should
also be noted that the whole 2 by 2 degree area was not completely covered by the zones,
so not all seismic activity in the 2 by 2 degree area was considered. The Gutenberg Richter
coefficients presented in Table 3-9 were input in the program. The following data, Table
6-1, from the catalogue completeness analysis, the Gutenberg Richter regression SCENA
program were used as input for CRISIS.
Table 6-1 - Input Data for SCENA and CRISIS
Input Data for Scena
and Crisis
a
b
Standard Deviation of b
N min
(expected)
Coeff. Of variation of
M max (expected)
M max (Standard Deviation)
M max (observed)
Standard Deviation of M max (obsrv)
M min
First Zone
4.276
1.032
0.059
0.87
2.38
0.14
6.91
0.54
6.73
0.479
4.20
Second Zone
2.585
0.690
0.053
0.48
1.59
0.12
7.01
0.71
6.89
0.661
4.20
Third Zone
2.136
0.749
0.013
0.098
1.72
0.03
7.78
1.050
6.96
0.755
4.20
The attenuation model used for the PSHA was developed by Sabeta and Pugliese (1996),
and given in a text file in which the model was defined for earthquake magnitudes between
4.0 and 7.5. With this information and assumptions, the program CRISIS followed the
following steps in performing the PSHA of the region (Cornell 1968, Reiter 1990):
a)
Identification of the sources of seismicity. These sources of seismicity were

represented as rectangle-shaped area sources in this study.
b)
The temporal behaviour of earthquakes was determined for each source by
establishing a magnitude recurrence relationship over the range of magnitudes
that are likely to be generated by each seismic source. Gutenberg Richter
recurrence models are considered as shown in Table 3-4.
c)
Ground motion prediction model was used to establish the conditional
probability of exceedance of a pre-specified ground motion value for each site
(PGA), given the occurrence of an earthquake at a particular magnitude and
location. The prediction equations mainly consisted of separate relations for
elastic response spectral amplitudes for both hard rock and soft soil sites.
d)
Integration of the first three steps over all possible magnitudes and earthquake
locations (total probability) to produce the result of a seismic hazard analysis.
This was a function representing the probability of exceeding various levels of
PGA, or, alternatively, the maximum elastic response of a single degree-offreedom oscillator to ground motion at a specific site. Also, uniform hazard
response spectra were derived from hazard curves by selecting oscillator
response values for a specific exceedance frequency
The hazard map computed for the site under study is shown in Figure 6-2. The maximum
PGA value of 270.47 gal (0.28g) is considered to be exceeded in a return period of 475
years (0.0021 of annual rate of exceedance).
Page 16
Figure 6-2 Hazard map computed for the site in the CRISIS program
The peak ground accelerations on this map are reasonably consistent with the official one
used for design purposes. The map of Seismic Hazard for Italy is shown in Figure 6-3. In
this map the peak ground accelerations (PGA) are shown for the whole country, for 10%
chance of exceedance in a 50-year exposition period (475 year return period). As can be
seen, sites around the area of study have maximum PGA values between 0.275 and 0.300g,
which match perfectly with the results obtained by CRISIS 2003. It can be seen that in the
official map the PGAs decrease towards the bottom right and top left, while the opposite is
true for the CRISIS 2003 map. This is because for CRISIS 2003 only three rectangular
sources were considered, which occur in the bottom right and top left and the top right is
not considered to be a seismic source, which is not the case in reality. Also, using area
sources introduces an assumption of a spatially uniform area corresponding to these
sources. These zones correspond to the highest PGA areas in the map. Also, it should be
noted that the Zone divisions are not known to be taken on a geological basis, but purely
on a spatial basis, and therefore are unlikely to accurately represent source areas.
Page 17
Figure 6-3 - Hazard Map Computed by INGV for Return Period of 475 years
6.2
Hazard Map for a Specific Site
The site selected for this study is the city Potenza from the Basilicata region of Italy. The
coordinates are: Longitude 15.80E and Latitude 40.63N. The Hazard Map generated from
CRISIS 2003 is shown as Figure 6-4.
HAZARD CURVE. Annual rate of exceedance for Potenza city (Italy)
1.E-01
Annual rate of exceedance
1.E-02
1.E-03
1.E-04
1.E-05
1.E-06
1.E-07
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
PGA (g)
Figure 6-4 - PGA Hazard Curve for Potenza
Page 18
0.80
0.90
1.00
Table 6-2 - Annual Rate of Exceedance for Potenza City

Annual rate of exceedance for Potenza city (CRISIS 2003)
PGA (gal)
Annual rate exceedance
PGA (g)
30.0
7.65E-02
0.03
38.5
4.48E-02
0.04
49.5
2.52E-02
0.05
63.6
1.38E-02
0.06
81.7
7.38E-03
0.08
105.0
3.86E-03
0.11
135.0
1.96E-03
0.14
173.0
9.60E-04
0.18
223.0
4.49E-04
0.23
286.0
1.99E-04
0.29
367.0
8.32E-05
0.37
472.0
3.29E-05
0.48
606.0
1.24E-05
0.62
778.0
4.43E-06
0.79
1000.0
1.52E-06
1.02
For design purposes the typical return period is around 475 years. This means that if a
building is designed in Potenza city, the annual rate of exceedance should be chosen
around a value of 1/475 = 0.0021 (1/year). Interpolating values from Table 6-2, this
corresponds to a design PGA of around 0.13g.
6.3
Response Spectrum for Potenza city 475 year Return Period
The response spectrum was computed for Potenza city for a return period of 475 years. As
computed previously the expected PGA for this site is 0.13g.
Response spectrum for Potenza city (Italy) for return period of 475 years
0.6
0.5
Sa (g)
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Period (seconds)
Figure 6-5 - Response Spectrum for Potenza
Page 19
4.00

Table 6-3 - Response Spectra for Potenza
Response Spectrum for Potenza city for 475 years (CRISIS 2003)
PGA (g)
Period (s)
PGA (gal)
0.00
1.31E+02
0.13
0.04
1.40E+02
0.14
0.07
1.84E+02
0.19
0.10
2.48E+02
0.25
0.33
3.27E+02
0.15
0.20
3.68E+02
0.38
0.30
3.73E+02
0.38
0.35
0.40
3.40E+02
0.32
0.50
3.12E+02
0.75
2.48E+02
0.25
1.00
1.89E+02
0.19
1.50
1.16E+02
0.12
2.00
7.50E+01
0.08
3.00
3.47E+01
0.04
4.00
1.77E+01
0.02
A comparison was conducted between the response spectrum obtained from CRISIS 2003
for the site and the one suggested by the Instituto Nazionale di Sismologia e Vulcanologia
(INSV). As Figure 6-6 shows, the spectra are clearly similar.
Comparison of the response spectra for Potenza between INGV and CRISIS (RP=475 years)
0.6
0.5
Sa (g)
0.4
0.3
0.2
CRISIS
0.1
INGV
0.0
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
Period (seconds)
Figure 6-6 - Comparison of the Response Spectra for Potenza
However, when this same comparison is performed for Napoli city the results differ
greatly. This is due firstly because of the lack of completeness in the third source, as stated
in the previous sections. Secondly, the three sources selected do not reflect the complete
seismogenic behaviour of the country, so the trend for the PGA near the coastal line for the
Italian hazard map (INSV) is about half that computed by CRISIS.
Page 20
Comparison of the response spectra for Napoli between INGV and CRISIS (RP=475 years)
0.9
0.8
0.7
Sa (g)
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
CRISIS
INGV
0.1
0.0
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
Period (seconds)
Figure 6-7 - Comparison of the Response Spectra for Napoli
Observations and Conclusions
7.1
Vesuvius Volcano influence
It is possible to notice that this study considers the area around the volcano Vesuvius. The
location of the volcano is as follows:
Location: 40.8N, 14.4E
Elevation: 4,200 feet (1,281 m)
Figure 7-1 - A Space Shuttle Photo of Vesuvius
This volcano is contained in Zone 2, but it is considered only as part of the source area, and
not as a specific source. The only event in the catalogue corresponding to this location is
the eruption in the year 79 which destroyed Pompeii. This means that it is not possible to
define the influence of seismicity in this area due to the possibility of volcanic activity.
Page 21

This is very important for the PSHA computation, especially for the Mediterranean coast
region.
While in the official I.N.S.V. Hazard Map, Figure 7-2, the profile of this area is more
continuous so the contour of equal PGA values are close to each other However, in the
hazard map by CRISIS these contours are further apart, which explains the greater PGA
values.
Figure 7-2 - Hazard Map Computed by INGV for Campania
7.2
Conclusions
Despite the limitations of source zones and difficulties with computing completeness,
predicted values for peak ground accelerations for a 475 year return period were
comparable to accepted values.
Page 22
8 References
Cornell C.A. 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 58, 15831606.
CRISIS 2003. M. Ordaz, A. Aguilar and J. Arboleda. Program for Computing Seismic
Hazard. Instituto de Ingeniera, UNAM, Mexico.
Reiter L. 1990. Earthquake Hazard Analysis: issues and insights. Columbia University
Press, New York, 252 pp.
Sabetta F, Pugliese A. 1996. Estimation of response spectra and simulation of nonstationary earthquake ground motions. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
1996; 86 (2): 337-52.
Page 23

1.3 Ejemplo Italia

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

1.3 Ejemplo Italia

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

BASICS OF SEISMOLOGY AND SEISMIC HAZARD

Basics of Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment

Basics of Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment

Basics of Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment

Figure 1-1 - Map of Region 5

Basics of Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment

2 Completeness Period of Catalogue

Cumulative number of earthquakes

Year of the events

Figure 2-1 - Combined Catalogue

Magnitude 4.30 4.59

Cumulative number of earthquakes

Time window of completeness

Figure 2-2 - Completeness Period MW: 4.30 - 4.59

Basics of Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment

Magnitude 4.60 4.89

Time window of completeness

Cumulative Number of Earthquakes

Figure 2-3 - Completeness Period Mw: 4.60 - 4.89

Magnitude 4.90 5.19

Time window of completeness

Cumulative Number of Earthquakes

Figure 2-4 - Completeness Period Mw: 4.90 - 5.19

Basics of Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment

Magnitude 5.20 5.49

Time window of completeness

Cumulative Number of Earthquakes

Figure 2-5 - Completeness Period Mw: 5.20 - 5.49

Magnitude 5.50 5.79

Time window of completeness

Cumulative Number of Earthquakes

Figure 2-6 Completeness Period Mw: 5.50 - 5.79

Basics of Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment

Magnitude 5.80 6.09

Time window of completeness

Cumulative Number of Earthquakes

Figure 2-7 - Completeness Period Mw: 5.80 - 6.09

Magnitude 6.10 6.39

Time window of completeness

Cumulative Number of Earthquakes

Figure 2-8 - Completeness Period Mw: 6.10 - 6.39

Basics of Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment

Magnitude 6.40 6.69

Cumulative Number of Earthquakes

Time window of completeness

Figure 2-9 - Completeness Period MW: 6.40 - 6.69

Magnitude 6.70 6.99

Time window of completeness

Cumulative Number of Earthquakes

Figure 2-10 - Completeness Period MW: 6.7-6.69

2.10 Comparison of Completeness

Table 2-1 - Completeness of Magnitude Categories

Basics of Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment

3 Annual Seismicity Rate and Gutenberg Richter Recurrence

Initial Seismicity Rates

Basics of Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment

log(v) = 4.1214 -1.0042M

Figure 3-1- Zone 1 Initial Recurrence Relationship

Basics of Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment

Zone 2 - Recurrence relationship

log(v) = 2.5849 -0.6903M

Figure 3-2 - Zone 2 Recurrence Relationship

Basics of Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment

Zone 3 - Recurrence relationship - Initial Groupings