‘weva0t6 ‘South China Sea: mocetrouble- Gateway House Japan, Ansa, nda nd even Indonesia to actos a deterrent to Chin's agressive ‘expansionism Inthe eyesof the smile nation the rexion, Chins indeed seemed ‘ave won, atleast or the tine beng. Buch now depends on the decison and sions of the Trump Adminstration. A ‘coherent ation plano he West Pace wil take test a few months more, by which tie the present rouble situation in the South China Se may well have come the ew arma ‘This mens that China wil continue tock saookat the provisions uf UNCLOS and iersatonal law, wile establishing itself even tore firmly inthe South China Sea trough eataneed marine aity apd continuing nfrastractare buldiog. Having ‘ow got Mania om its sie, Being is unely to provoke the Philipines by Infrastructure bulding onthe Searorvugh Sboal, usted barely 25 mile rom Subic Rey in taxon Nor sit ely to impose an Air Defence entiation Zone (ADIZ) inthe South Cioa ‘Seasino te nowin Chinas interest to alow the tats qo to preva. ‘Acton by other powers, neuing the United States, Japan anda, maybe Fite to freedom of navigation operations by sulary warships and overflghs by mary nea, with the ossason deployment of age tasforos, Perhaps tha is btter ‘hana flbledged contontation, lado altar once ‘The most significant response wil he Japan's Gen that Mosnw has noe aligned ‘tse wo Bejing especially inthe Sou China Sea, where the navies of both ations “undertook manoeuvees rece, Tokyo's reaction tothe new ligament coal ave a jor impact on the regan Japan's basi econoe ween and emery secu are most criially dpendeat on a peacfal South China Sea. The events ofthe ls few year andthe polly of oil Chinese domination over waters rec Unked to is ‘ore interests may prope Tokyo into directions hitherto considered faethe, Including reaitaristion and the nuclear option. North Korean antes would only serve to basen sch deo, "New Da’ position oa the South Cian Sea dputeshss bee consistent, emphasising the centrality ofthe tenets ofthe UNCLOS fr hota mtritime governance sna pact conf resolution. Ae Pine Minister Mod elterated to Prine Minster Shinzo Abe ‘oly lst week, Inn eontinies to adwoeteresposting th right of ll mations to freedom of eavgaion, overdight and unitpeded commerce in the murtine [As forthe Unted Stats, the South China Sea imbroglo all ato question Pax ‘Americana, which bas been in place sins the end of the Vietnam War ad which resulted in he rapid growth of trade and welt nthe entire Est Aslan repon. AS Cina challenges the statos quo, and plys hardball, United States President-Elect ‘Trunp wil lave to be both nimBlefooted, aswell svsolut, to ensure that Ching’s recent actions donot herald the beginning of Amerie dedin as Paci power. ‘Consersly,Prsieot Xi gpg uns the rikof imperial over-rech and delusions of ret power statusmvithout having actually earned that rank ye Any seck i the South China Sea wil almost surely neeas interoal dissect and oth he and his ‘ounty wl have to pay the price of disregarding international aw nd world opin. Either way, misslsation by any of tho major powets wth stakes in the South Chioa ‘Sea wl ret in unforesnablecnsequenes. Vice Admiral Anit Chopra is Distinguished Fellow, Intemational Security and Maritime Studies, Gateway House. He was the former ‘Commander in-Chiefof the Western Naval Command, the Bastera Naval Command, and former Chief of the Indian Coast Guard. ‘This feature was exclusively written for Gateway House: Indian Council ‘on Global Relations, You cin read more exclusive features here ‘hten/ss gatewayhouse.in/publicntions/aatewayrhouse/features) For interview requests with the author, or for permission to republish, please ‘contact ‘ttireachantetoauantse in ‘Gnailtocoutreach@antewayhouss.in} or 02s 24023571. {© Copyright 2016 Gateway House: Indian Councit on Global Relations. All rights reserved. Any unauthorized copying or reproduetion is strictly prohibited. ip hwwr gatowayhouse infsou-ching see tuulent-walers! {fla i Calswarboute.1n/Author/Adm cc,