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Alternatives To Cap-Weighted Indices PDF
Alternatives To Cap-Weighted Indices PDF
Lionel Martellini
Professor of Finance, EDHEC Business School
Scientific Director, EDHEC Risk Institute
lionel.martellini@edhec.edu
www.edhec-risk.com
Outline
fundamental indices
equally-weighted indices
minimum variance indices
efficient indices
equal-risk contribution (a.k.a. risk parity) indices
maximum diversification indices
Beyond Cap-Weighting
Which Port do we want to Sail to: Indices versus Benchmarks
10
In any case, it is not clear why investors would care about their
portfolios representing the economy.
From the investors perspective, the focus should be on
efficiency: obtaining fair rewards for given risk budgets.
Efficiency is intimately related to diversification: it is by
constructing well-diversified portfolios that one can achieve a
fair reward for a given risk exposure.
CW portfolios in fact appear to be rather inefficient and poorly
diversified portfolios, and several approaches have been
developed so as to improve diversification compared to capweighting.
12
13
Index
Nominal
number
Effective
number
S&P
500
94
NASDAQ
100
37
100
28
FTSE Eurobloc
300
104
FTSE Japan
500
103
Nave de-concentration:
Equal-weighting simply gives the same weight to each of N stocks
in the index (1/N rule).
Equal-weighting is the nave route to constructing well diversified
portfolios.
Semi-nave de-concentration:
Equal risk contribution (ERC) takes into account contribution to risk.
Contribution to risk is not proportional to dollar contribution.
Find portfolio weights such that contributions to risk are equal
(Maillard, Roncalli and Teiletche (2010)):
wi
16
p
wi
= wj
p
w j
16
Statistical de-concentration:
Define a diversification index and try and maximize it by utilizing the
correlations that drive the magic of diversification: The whole is
better than the sum of its parts.
Maximum Diversification (also known as anti-benchmark) aims at
generating portfolios with the highest possible diversification index
(Choueifaty and Coignard (2008)):
n
i i
DI = Max i =1
n
wi w j ij
i , j =1
The weighted average risk (in the numerator) will be high compared
to portfolio risk (in the denominator) and thus DI will be high if the
portfolio weights exploit well the correlations.
17
19
19
Maximum Sharpe
Ratio (MSR) Portfolio
Global
Minimum
Variance
(GMV)
Portfolio
Volatility
The MSR provides the highest reward per unit of portfolio volatility:
needed optimization inputs are expected returns, correlations and
volatilities.
The GMV provides the lowest possible portfolio volatility: needed
optimization inputs are correlations and volatilities.
20
18
Efficient frontier
Tangency line
16
Annualized expected return
MSR
14
12
MSR + cash
10
8
6
4
GMV
2
0
10
15
Annualized volatility
20
25
21
23
(*) See also Barberis and Huang (2001) Malkiel and Yu (2002), Boyle, Garlappi, Uppal and Wang (2009) .
25.0%
Average Portfolio Return and
Standard Error Bounds
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-5.0%
-10.0%
Average Risk over Cross-Section
100.00
10.00
1.00
64' 67' 70' 73' 76' 79' 82' 85' 88' 91' 94' 97' 00' 03' 06' 09'
0.10
0.01
0.00
Low
High
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-5.0%
-10.0%
Average Risk over Cross-Section
10000.00
1000.00
100.00
10.00
1.00
64' 67' 70' 73' 76' 79' 82' 85' 88' 91' 94' 97' 00' 03' 06' 09'
0.10
Low
High
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-10.0%
Average Risk over Cross-Section
10000.00
1000.00
100.00
10.00
1.00
64' 67' 70' 73' 76' 79' 82' 85' 88' 91' 94' 97' 00' 03' 06' 09'
0.10
Low
High
25.0%
Average Portfolio Return and
Standard Error Bounds
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-5.0%
-10.0%
Average Risk over Cross-Section
1000.00
100.00
10.00
1.00
64' 67' 70' 73' 76' 79' 82' 85' 88' 91' 94' 97' 00' 03' 06' 09'
0.10
0.01
Low
High
25.0%
Average Portfolio Return and
Standard Error Bounds
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-5.0%
-10.0%
Average Risk over Cross-Section
1000.00
100.00
10.00
1.00
64' 67' 70' 73' 76' 79' 82' 85' 88' 91' 94' 97' 00' 03' 06' 09'
0.10
Low
High
30.0%
Average Portfolio Return and
Standard Error Bounds
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-10.0%
Average Risk over Cross-Section
10000.00
1000.00
100.00
10.00
1.00
64' 67' 70' 73' 76' 79' 82' 85' 88' 91' 94' 97' 00' 03' 06' 09'
0.10
Low
High
Risk Measure
Moments
Zhang (2005)
Skewness
Skew
Skewness
Skew
Skewness
Skew
Skewness
Skew
Downside correlation
Huang et al (2009)
Value-at-Risk (EVT)
Value-at-Risk
(Historical)
Vol,Skew, Kurt
Semi-deviation
Estrada (2000)
Semi-deviation
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-10.0%
Average Risk over Cross-Section
10000.00
1000.00
100.00
10.00
1.00
64' 67' 70' 73' 76' 79' 82' 85' 88' 91' 94' 97' 00' 03' 06' 09'
Low
High
20%
70%
Port 2
Port 3
60%
Port 4
Port 5
50%
Port 6
Port 7
40%
Port 8
Port 9
30%
Port High
20%
10%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Month after portfolio formation
Ten portfolios containing an equal number of stocks (extracted from the CRSP data base) are built every month after sorting the stocks
based on their semi-deviation (calculated using daily data for last 30 months); the cumulative returns of each of these portfolios are
calculated for various holding periods and averaged across the portfolio formation date.
32
Ann.
average
return
Ann. std.
Deviation
Sharpe
Ratio
Efficient Index
11.63%
14.65%
0.41
0.52
4.65%
Cap-weighted
9.23%
15.20%
0.24
0.00
0.00%
Difference (Efficient
minus Cap-weighted)
2.40%
-0.55%
0.17
0.14%
6.04%
0.04%
Information Tracking
Ratio
Error
The table shows risk and return statistics portfolios constructed with using the same set of constituents as the cap-weighted S&P 500 index.
Rebalancing is quarterly subject to an optimal control of portfolio turnover (by setting the reoptimisation threshold to 50%). Portfolios are
constructed by maximising the Sharpe ratio given an expected return estimate and a covariance estimate. The expected return estimate is
set to the median total risk of stocks in the same decile when sorting on total risk. The covariance matrix is estimated using an implicit factor
model for stock returns. Weight constraints are set so that each stock's weight is between 1/2N and 2/N, where N is the number of index
constituents. P-values for differences are computed using the paired t-test for the average, the F-test for volatility, and a Jobson-Korkie test
for the Sharpe ratio. The results are based on weekly return data from 01/1959. We use a calibration period of 2 years and rebalance the
portfolio every three months (at the beginning of January, April, July and October).
33
methodological choices.
However, portfolio theory tells us that there is only one optimal
portfolio: the tangency (MSR) portfolio.
Question: Under which conditions would the portfolio construction
choices of different index weighting schemes be truly optimal?
KIS(BNTS) principle: robustness of a method may justify simple
assumptions but is important that assumptions also remain
reasonable; if the conditions are too restrictive, we are unlikely to
obtain optimal portfolios.
35
Expected
Return
Optimal
Portfolio
Cap-weighted index
Volatility
w MSR = f ( i , i , ij )
36
Fundamental weighting:
Conditions under which this weighting scheme would be optimal
are not clear.
As an example, it would be optimal if risk parameters are
identical and expected return is proportional to the four
fundamental variables used for the weighting.
37
38
39
Conclusion
41
References
Amenc, N., F. Goltz, L. Martellini, and P. Retkowsky, 2010, Efficient Indexation: An Alternative to
Cap-Weighted Indices," Journal of Investment Management, forthcoming.
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Analysts Journal, 60(2), 57-73.
Barberis, N., and M. Huang, 2001, Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion and Individual Stock Returns,
Journal of Finance, 56, 1247-1292.
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security prices, 2007, working paper.
Boyer, B., and K. Vorkink, 2007, Equilibrium Underdiversification and the Preference for Skewness,
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References
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Portfolios, Journal of Portfolio Management, Spring 1991.
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Texas at Dallas.
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Contribution, Journal of Portfolio Management.
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Journal, September/October 2005.
Merton, Robert, 1987, A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information,
Journal of Finance, 42(3).
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working paper.
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