2016. 03.

21

Initiate: /

Unmet needs
()

: 2 3 (Immunotherapy)

Overweight()

/
Tel. 02)368-6170
jhkwak@eugenefn.com

Glossary

, , , ,

(ETC; Ethical drug)

(OTC; Over The Counter drug)

, ,

(Biosimilar)

(IMD; Incrementally Modified Drug)

CMO (Contract Manufacturing Organizations)

CRO (Contract Research Organizations)

cGMP (Current GMP)

FDA(Food and drug administration)

(Target theraphy)

BLA (Biologic License Application)

(Nonclinical study)

(Clinical Trial/ study)

IND (Investigative New Drug)

NDA (New Drug Approval)

. IND
,

(License out)

.
,

(Big pharma)

(mAb; Monoclonal Antibody)

(Diabetes Mellitus)

(Cancer)

Summary
(Big pharma) ?
1) , 2) , 3) .
/ Unmet needs( ) R&D .

Unmet needs 1 - : 2 3 (Immunotherapy)

Unmet needs 2 - :

Unmet needs 3 - :

M&A , .

20 .
. (Science) (Money) . 1
, R&D .
R&D R(Research) D(Development), Marketing .
3 45 1 2 .
2016 1 . 2 26
<Due diligence in preclinical and early clinical> L/O
.
Due diligence()

Summary

/ 1 . 2015 2%
93% . 2015
rerating .
Top picks .
, R&D . , , .
, . PER money flow,
. 2016 .
R&D /

JW

SK

LG

13

15

R&D

novel

L/O

: , : , :

Top picks: ,
top picks .
(170900.KS): DA-9801 .
Late-stage .
(128940.KS): 2015 L/O R&D . 2016 JP
, 2 2, 3 7 .
10 .
, ,

()

(3/17)

170900.KS

128940.KS
185750.KS
006120.KS

2016

BUY

220,000

154,000

43%

DA-9801 2 L/O, ,

BUY

1,000,000

674,000

48%

L/O 2

BUY

162,000

131,000

24%

, 2, 1 1

SK

BUY

100,000

82,100

22%

4 , /

000100.KS

BUY

330,000

280,500

18%

API , R&D

115180.KQ

N/A

N/A

42,000

Q203 2 Q203, Q301 L/O

/
Tel. 02)368-6170
jhkwak@eugenefn.com

Key chart
/ (1)
1H16

2H16

1H17

2H17

2018

Efpeglenatide (GLP-1)

P3 (US)

HM12470 ()

P2 (US)

P2

P1 (US)

P1

HM12525 (GLP/GCG)

P2 (US)

P2

Eflapegrastim ()

P3 (US)

()

P2 (US)

P3
P2
P2 (US)

P2

P2 (US)

P2

P3 (US)

P3

CKD-581 ()

P2 (KR)

P2

CKD-516 ()

P2 (KR)

P2

CKD-519 ()

P2 (KR)

P2

P1 (EU)

P1

(US)

P1 (US)

P1

P1 (JP)

P3 (KR)

P1 (JP)

(KR)

HM61713 (, BTD)
HM71224 (BTK Inhibitor)
HM95573 (RAF Inhibitor)

DA-9801 (, )

FDA P2

DA-3880 ( )

P3

CKD-506 (RA, HDAC6 Inhibitor)

CKD-504 ()
CKD-11101 (, )

JM-010 ( LID )
MLR-1023 ( )

P2 (EU)
2a (KR)

P2

2b (KR)

LG
LBEC0101 ( )

P3 (JP, KR)

LBAL ( )

P2 (JP)

( )

P3 (US, 3Q)

BLA

(US)

JW
CWP291 (, P2 )

P1 (US, KR)

P2 (US, KR)

2b (KR)

P3 (KR)

YH14618 ( )
:

P2

Key chart
/ (2)
1H16

2H16

P1 (US)

1H17

2H17

2018

SK

P1

IVIG

BLA ()

Apatinib ()

P3 (US)

P3

HL161 ()

(CA)

HL036 ()

P1 (US)

P1

P1 (KR, 3Q)

P2 (KR)

2a

P3 (US)

P2 (US)
P2

Q301 (, )

2a (US)

Q203 ( )

P1 (US)

P3 (US)

P3

VMD202 ( )
VMD202 ()
VMD202 ( )

P3 (US)
P1

P3
P2 (US)

P3 (US)

P2
P3

GX-188E ()

P2 (EU, KR)

GX-H9 ()

P2 (EU, KR)

P3 (EU, KR)

GX-I7 ()

P1 (US)

P1

CG200745 ()

P1/2 (KR)

P1/2

CG200745 (MDS, , P2 )

P1/2 (KR)

P1/2

Key chart

1985
() Avastin

Roche

1990

1995

2000

Roche

BMS

6,948

6,797

501

7,324

1998.6.2 ~ 2013.11.12
1997.11.26 ~ 2016.11.26

Amgen
+KyowaHakko

Neupogen

Amgen

4,715

2002.8.22 ~ 2017.8.21
2002.1.31 ~ 2015.10.20

1,049

Expired

(filgrastim)

1991.2.20 ~ 2013.12.3

Abbvie

2002.12.31 ~ 2016.12.31

Remicade
(infliximab)

J&J + Merck

Enbrel

Amgen

14,012

2003.9.8 ~ 2018.4.16

(adalimumab)

16 , 22
8,355

1999.8.13 ~ 2015.2
1998.8.24 ~ 2018.9.4

5,364

2000.2.3 ~ 2015.2.1

(etanercept)

1998.11.2 ~ 2028.11.22

Abbott

340

1999.8.13 ~ 2015.8.9

(palivizumab)

1998.6.19 ~ 2015.10.20

Amgen

Epogen/Eprex

Amgen

(epoetin alfa)

+KyowaHakko

2001.9.17 ~ 2024.5.15

Avonex/Rebif
Biogen
(interferon beta-1a)

Lovenox

Sanofi

1,856

Expired
1989.6.1 ~ 2013.8.20

Lantus
Sanofi
(insulin glargine)

(enoxaparin/sodium)

2,426

2001.8.6 ~ 2016.7.6

(darbepoetin alfa) +KyowaHakko

2015 sales
($mm)

2004.6.29 ~ 2014.6.29

Neulasta
(pegfilgrastim)

Aranesp

2030

2000.8.28 ~ 2014.7.28

(rituximab)

Synagis

2025

2004.2.12 ~ 2016.2.13

Rituxan/MabThera Roche

2020

1998.9.25 ~ 2019.6.18

(cetuximab)

Humira

2015

2004.2.26 ~ 2019.7.4

(trastuzumab)
Erbitux

2010

2005.1.12 ~ 2022.1.21

(bevacizumab)
Herceptin

2005

2009.5.8 ~ 2014

7,093

2009.5.19 ~ 2015

2,630

2000.4.24 ~ 2015

2003.2.7 ~ 2015
1993~ 2012
Expired

1,908

Key chart

<2014 >
*
2014

12%
(2014)

Oncology

10%

Anti-rheumatics

8%

Anti-hypertensives

6%

bronchodilator

Anti-diabetics

Anti-virals

4%

Vaccines

2%

-5%

MS
Anti-coagulants

Immunosuppressants

0%

-10%

Sensory organ

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2009~14 CAGR

<2020 >
18%

(2020e)

*
2020

16%
14%

Oncology

12%
10%

bronchodilator

8%
Anti-rheumatics

6%
Anti-virals

Anti-diabetics

Sensory organ

4%

Anti-hypertensives

2%

MS

0%
-4%

-2%

Vaccines

0%

2%

4%

6%

Immunosuppressants

Anti-coagulants

8%

10%

12%

2014~20e CAGR

: Evaluatepharma,

14%

Key chart

[1]
Humira
adalimumab
Enbrel
etanercept
Remicade
infliximab
[2] C
Sovaldi
sofosbuvir
Olysio
simeprevir
[3]
Lantus
insulin glargine
Januvia/ Janumet sitagliptin phosphate
NovoRapid
insulin aspart recombinant
Humalog
insulin lispro recombinant
Levemir
insulin detemir
Victoza
liraglutide [rDNA origin]
[4] ()
Rituxan
rituximab
Avastin
bevacizumab
Herceptin
trastuzumab
Revlimid
lenalidomide
Gleevec
imatinib mesylate
Neulasta
pegfilgrastim
Velcade
bortezomib
Alimta
pemetrexed disodium
Zytiga
abiraterone acetate
[5]
Prevnar 13
pneumococcal vaccine
[6]
Micardis
telmisartan
Diovan
valsartan
[7]
Copaxone
glatiramer acetate
Avonex
interferon beta-1a
Tecfidera
dimethyl fumarate
Gilenya
fingolimod hydrochloride
Rebif
interferon beta-1a
[8]
Seretide/Advair
fluticasone propionate
Spiriva
tiotropium bromide
Symbicort
budesonide
[9] ()
Crestor
rosuvastatin calcium
Zetia
ezetimibe
Lipitor
atorvastatin calcium
[10] ,
Xarelto
rivaroxaban
Plavix
clopidogrel bisulfate
Lovenox
enoxaparin sodium
[11] HIV
Atripla
efavirenz
Truvada
emtricitabine
[12]
Epogen/Procrit
epoetin alfa
Aranesp
darbepoetin alfa
: Evaluate pharma,

AbbVie + Eisai
Amgen + Pfizer + Takeda
JNJ + Merck + Mitsubishi Tanabe

TNFa inhibitor
TNFa inhibitor
TNFa inhibitor

Gilead Sciences
J&J + Medivir

Hepatitis C NS5B inhibitor

Hepatitis C NS3/4A inhibitor

C
C

Sanofi
Mercko+Daewoong+Ono+Almirall
Novo Nordisk
Eli Lilly
Novo Nordisk
Novo Nordisk

Insulin analogue
DPP-IV inhibitor
Insulin analogue
Insulin analogue
Insulin analogue
GLP-1 agonist

( )
DPP-4

Roche
Roche
Roche
Celgene
Novartis
Amgen + Kyowa Hakko
JNJ + Takeda
Eli Lilly
Johnson & Johnson

Anti-CD20 MAb
Anti-VEGF MAb
Anti-HER2 MAb
Immunomodulator
Tyrosine kinase inhibitor
G-CSF
Proteasome inhibitor
Thymidylate synthase inhibitor
CYP17A1 inhibitor

Pfizer + Daewoong

($bn)
2013
2014
11,014
8,778
8,367
139
23

12,890
8,915
8,807

yoy
+17%
+2%
+5%

10,283 +7275%
2,329 +10026%

7,592
6,256
3,001
2,611
2,057
2,072

8,428
6,358
3,109
2,785
2,533
2,393

+11%
+2%
+4%
+7%
+23%
+15%

7,503
6,751
6,562
4,302
4,693
4,392
2,610
2,703
1,698

7,547
7,018
6,863
4,980
4,746
4,599
2,883
2,792
2,237

+1%
+4%
+5%
+16%
+1%
+5%
+10%
+3%
+32%

Pneumococcal vaccine

3,763

4,297

+14%

Boehringer + Astellas + Bayer

Novartis + Ipsen

ATII antagonist
ATII antagonist

3,046
3,534

2,583
2,354

-15%
-33%

Teva
Biogen
Biogen
Novartis + Mitsubishi Tanabe
Merck KGaA

MS agent
Interferon beta
Nrf2 pathway activator
S1P receptor modulator
Interferon beta

4,328
3,005
876
1,957
2,513

4,237
3,013
2,909
2,506
2,444

-2%
+0%
+232%
+28%
-3%

GlaxoSmithKline + Almirall + Faes

Boehringer Ingelheim
AstraZeneca + Sigma-Tau

Beta 2
LAMA
Beta 2

8,341
4,719
3,502

7,058
4,300
3,820

-15%
-9%
+9%

AstraZeneca + Shionogi + Chiesi

Merck & Co
Pfizer + Astellas + Jeil

Statin/ HMG CoAinhibitor

Cholesterol absorption inhibitor
Statin/ HMG CoA inhibitor

6,105
2,658
2,915

5,987
2,650
2,479

-2%
0%
-15%

Bayer + JNJ
Sanofi + BristolMyers Squibb
Sanofi

Factor Xa inhibitor
Platelet aggregation inhibitor
LMWH

1,948
2,613
2,262

3,366
2,549
2,257

+73%
-2%
0%

Gilead Sciences
Gilead Sciences + Torii

NRTI & NNRTI

NRTI

3,648
3,270

3,470
3,424

-5%
+5%

Amgen + JNJ + Kyowa Hakko Kirin

Amgen + Kyowa Hakko

Erythropoietin
Erythropoietin

3,350
2,486

3,292
2,454

-2%
-1%

( )

Key chart
(2014 2020 )
<>

<2020 >
2014

2015

2020

Novartis

46.1

49.4

Pfizer

Pfizer

44.5

48.9

Novartis

53.3

Roche

40.1

50.1

Roche

44.7

Sanofi

38.2

38.7

Merck&Co

42.0

Merck&Co

36.6

39.5

Sanofi

38.9

J&J

30.7

31.4

J&J

32.7

GlaxoSmithKline

30.3

36.6

GlaxoSmithKline

31.4

AstraZeneca

25.7

24.7

Actavis

28.4

Gilead Siences

24.5

32.6

AstraZeneca

27.8

10 AbbVie

19.9

22.9

10 Gilead Siences

26.9

11 Amgen

19.3

21.7

11 AbbVie

26.0

12 Teva

17.5

19.7

12 Amgen

22.8

13 Eli Lilly

16.3

20.0

13 Novo Nordisk

22.6

14 Bayer

16.3

22.0

14 Bristol-Myers Squibb

22.0

15 Novo Nordisk

15.8

16.1

15 Eli Lilly

18.9

16 Boehringer Ingelheim

13.4

N/A

16 Bayer

18.0

17 Takeda

13.0

16.3

17 Celgene

16.8

18 Bristol-Myers Squibb

12.0

16.6

18 Teva Pharmaceutical

15.3

19 Actavis

11.1

N/A

19 Boehringer Ingelheim

15.2

20 Celgene

7.5

9.3

20 Takeda

14.9

top 20

478.9
264.2
743.1

top 20

: Pfizer 2020 Allergan 2020 Pfizer 2015 Allergan

2: ,
: Evaluate pharma,

60.0

563.4
423.4
986.8

Key chart
20
(pt)

,
L/O
(2015.11)

,


(2000.8)

10,000
9,000
8,000

(LG),

FDA
(2003.4)

1

(SK)
(1999.7)

5,000
4,000

(2012.4)

,

(1997~2001)

3,000
2,000

,

' '
(2004.2)

1,000

,
(CT-P13)

(2012.7)

,


(2005.11)

7,000
6,000

HM71224 L/O
(2015.3)

,
' ' .

(2005.5)

,
L/O
(2013.9)

(2010.11)

,
EMA
(2013.6)

0
97

98

99

00

01

:
:

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Summary

O. Summary
?

14

I. Big pharma
Unmet needs 1:
Unmet needs 2: ( )
Unmet needs 3:

19

II. !


Due diligence() , License out
, , !

40

III. Valuation

Top picks : R&D +

Peer valuation

51

Appendix
1) /
2)
3) M&A
4)

66

(170900.KS)
(128940.KS)
(185750.KS)
SK (006120.KS)
(000100.KS)
(115180.KQ)

76

Analyst | /

O. Summary
?
1) , 2) , 3)
. / Unmet needs(
) R&D .
<Unmet needs 1>
2 3 (Immunotherapy) . ,
(target)
(immune) . unmet needs R&D
. FDA .
<Unmet needs 2> ( )
, .
2015 (Sanofi) / 39
1 unmet need .
<Unmet needs 3> ( )
. , ,
.
1

Unmet needs M&A

Vicious
cycle

,
L/I
M&A
R&D

14

R&D

R&D

Analyst | /

20 .
. (Science) (Money)
. 1 , R&D
.
R&D R(Research) D(Development), Marketing .
3 45 1 2 .
2016 1
. 2 26 <Due diligence in preclinical and
early clinical> L/O L/O
.

Due diligence()

15

Analyst | /

/ 1 . 2015
2% 93%
. 2015 rerating
.
Top picks .
R&D . , ,
.
. PER
money flow, .
2016 .

R&D /

JW

SK

LG

13

15

novel
(first in class, best in class)

L/O

R&D

:
: , : , :

16

Analyst | /

top picks .
DA-9801
. Late-stage
.
2015 L/O R&D . 2016 JP
, 2 2, 3 7
. 10
.

, ,

()

(3/17)

170900.KS

BUY

220,000

154,000

43%

DA-9801 2 L/O, ,

128940.KS

BUY

1,000,000

674,000

48%

L/O 2

185750.KS

BUY

162,000

131,000

24%

, 2, 1 1

006120.KS

SK

BUY

100,000

82,100

22%

4 , /

000100.KS

BUY

330,000

280,500

18%

API , R&D

115180.KQ

N/A

N/A

42,000

2016

Q203 2 Q203, Q301 L/O

17

Analyst | /

/ peer valuation

2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F

2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F

2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
EPS
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
BPS
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
PER
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
PBR
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
EV/EBITDA
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F

2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
ROE
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F

2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F

: 2016 3 17

18

()
()
()
()

(128940.KS)
1,000,000
674,000
7,033

(170900.KS)
220,000
154,000
1,283

(185750.KS)
162,000
131,000
1,233

SK
(006120.KS)
100,000
82,100
1,995

(000100.KS)
330,000
280,500
3,128

761
1,318
1,220
1,593

579
581
600
642

544
592
776
896

7,284
5,269
5,665
7,620

1,017
1,129
1,233
1,360

34
212
178
241

49
55
52
64

43
55
55
76

150
114
147
190

74
86
74
102

43
162
124
173

37
49
47
57

35
-7
37
50

14
94
77
115

91
126
106
127

3,410
14,819
10,035
13,979

4,977
6,100
5,829
7,039

3,736
-720
3,933
5,359

-1,173
2,314
3,119
4,701

8,155
11,302
9,467
11,387

50,611
64,680
76,584
93,166

63,370
68,893
73,979
80,276

35,226
33,432
36,565
41,124

50,329
55,218
57,744
61,688

112,029
119,762
127,319
136,757

29.4
49.1
66.9
48.0

18.4
24.1
26.4
21.9

17.5
N/A
32.8
24.1

N/A
30.8
26.0
17.3

20.8
24.1
30.0
25.0

2.0
11.3
8.8
7.2

1.4
2.1
2.1
1.9

1.9
2.9
3.5
3.1

1.2
1.3
1.4
1.3

1.5
2.3
2.2
2.1

21.4
30.0
31.2
23.6

11.3
15.8
16.7
14.0

9.2
15.4
17.6
13.7

19.1
25.7
20.5
18.4

15.4
23.6
25.9
20.2

4.5
16.1
14.6
15.2

8.5
9.5
8.7
9.9

9.9
7.2
7.1
8.5

2.1
2.2
2.6
2.5

7.3
7.6
6.0
7.5

9.2
27.0
16.9
19.5

8.1
9.3
8.2
9.1

11.2
-2.1
11.2
13.8

1.1
6.9
5.0
7.1

7.3
7.6
6.0
7.5

174
185
-277
-254

131
71
27
7.4

73
112
153
147

2,306
2,629
2,378
2,611

-357
-328
-354
-392

()

()

()

()

()

()

()

(%)

(%)

()

Analyst | /

I. Big pharma
1) , 2) , 3)
. /
Unmet needs( ) R&D
.
6

Vicious
cycle

,
License In

M&A

R&D

R&D

R&D

: ,

FDA 10 , 26
(3) . 1 12% .
R&D Productivity , Licence in, M&A
.
7

p(TS)
1

(years)

: Nature reviews,

19

Analyst | /

- ( )
- ( $250 )
-

- ( )
- ( )
-

- ( )
-
- ()
-
-

- ( )
-

()

3000
2,600
2500
2000
1500
1,000
1000
413

500

179

0
1970s

1980s

1990s-early 2000s

2000s-early 2010s

: PhRMA,

10

FDA

()
35

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1950

1955

: FDA,

20

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Analyst | /

11

1985

()

Avastin

Roche

1990

1995

2000

Roche

BMS

2015 sales
($mm)
6,948

6,797

501

2004.2.12 ~ 2016.2.13

7,324

1998.6.2 ~ 2013.11.12
1997.11.26 ~ 2016.11.26

Neulasta
(pegfilgrastim)

Amgen
+KyowaHakko

Neupogen

Amgen

4,715

2002.8.22 ~ 2017.8.21
2002.1.31 ~ 2015.10.20

1,049

Expired
1991.2.20 ~ 2013.12.3

Abbvie

2002.12.31 ~ 2016.12.31

Remicade
(infliximab)

J&J + Merck

Enbrel
(etanercept)

Amgen

Synagis

Abbott

14,012

2003.9.8 ~ 2018.4.16

(adalimumab)

16 , 22
8,355

1999.8.13 ~ 2015.2
1998.8.24 ~ 2018.9.4

5,364

2000.2.3 ~ 2015.2.1
1998.11.2 ~ 2028.11.22

340

1999.8.13 ~ 2015.8.9

(palivizumab)
Aranesp

2030

2004.6.29 ~ 2014.6.29

(filgrastim)

2025

2000.8.28 ~ 2014.7.28

(rituximab)

Humira

2020

1998.9.25 ~ 2019.6.18

Rituxan/MabThera Roche

2015

2004.2.26 ~ 2019.7.4

(trastuzumab)
Erbitux
(cetuximab)

2010

2005.1.12 ~ 2022.1.21

(bevacizumab)
Herceptin

2005

1998.6.19 ~ 2015.10.20

Amgen

Epogen/Eprex

Amgen

(epoetin alfa)

+KyowaHakko

2001.9.17 ~ 2024.5.15

Avonex/Rebif
Biogen
(interferon beta-1a)

Lovenox

Sanofi

1,856

Expired
1989.6.1 ~ 2013.8.20

Lantus
Sanofi
(insulin glargine)

(enoxaparin/sodium)

2,426

2001.8.6 ~ 2016.7.6

(darbepoetin alfa) +KyowaHakko

2009.5.8 ~ 2014

7,093

2009.5.19 ~ 2015

2,630

2000.4.24 ~ 2015

2003.2.7 ~ 2015

1,908

1993~ 2012
Expired

21

Analyst | /

R&D .
R&D . R&D
. 50% . 2015
M&A 10 FDA 10
.

12

FDA

()
60

FDA

50
40
30
20

10
0
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

: FDA,

13

MNE R&D

: NME(new molecular entity)

: ,

22

Analyst | /

< >
Unmet needs 1:
.
.
1 (Cytotoxic therapies) 2
(Target therapies) (Gleevec), (Herceptin),
(Avastin) 2 . 3
(Immuno-Oncology) .
(target)
(immune) . .
14

: ,

15

(Immuno-Oncology)

: Amgen,

23

Analyst | /

2016 1
2016 1 21 1 . 600 ,
/ , (Open innovation)
. ,
Immunotherapy.

. 2016 JP Morgan healthcare
Immunotherapy .

16

2016

24

Analyst | /

Cancer immunotherapy , (cancer vaccine therapy),

(monoclonal antibody therapy) (cell therapy) .
,
, .
.
, (target)
(immune) . .

17

1943

1960

1960

1977

3 ,
70%
( 95%)

1970

1980

1986

(IFN-a approved for Cancer)

1990's

(Discovery checkpoint inhibitor)
1997

(First-mAb approved for Ca)

(Rituximab)

1990

1992
-2,


1992~1994
( )

2000

2014
PD-1
'' FDA

2010

2020

FDA
2001
2011


(anti-CTLA4 mAb)

: ,

25

Analyst | /

.
Inhibitor PD-1, PD-L1 , CAR-T, ADC, .
18

()

(Ipilmumab)
()

()

()

: Nature reviews,

26

()

,
()

: ,

19

()

PD-L1+ ()
()

Analyst | /

<CAR T >
CAR T( , Chimeric Antigen Receptor) . CAR-T T
T
. T
.
.
CAR-T IPO
.
CAR-T .
, .
R&D .

<anti PD-1, anti PD-L1, anti CTLA-4>

CAR-T PD-1(Programmed death-1,
-1), CTLA-4(Cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4, T
4) . PD-1
.
, .
BMS (,
) (Yervoy, Ipilimumab).
.
immunotherapy . anti CTLA-4 2014 13$
, 2015 11$ anti PD-1
(Keytruda) (Opdivo) .
BMS , . BMS
, BMS
2016 .
1 (cytotoxic) , .
2 Avastin Erbitux .

.

27

Analyst | /

20

(Immunotherapy)

()
Immunotherapy

2011A

2012A

2013A

2014A

2015A

360

765

1,051

1,443

2,634

59

91

74

IL-2

59

91

74

CTLA-4 antibodies

Proleukin (Novartis)
360

706

960

1,308

1,126

Yervoy (BMS)

360

706

960

1,308

1,126

61

1,508

55

566

942

PD-1/PD-L1 antibodies
Keytruda (Merck)
Opdivo (BMS)
: ,

28

Analyst | /

21

[1]
Humira
adalimumab
Enbrel
etanercept
Remicade
infliximab
[2] C
Sovaldi
sofosbuvir
Olysio
simeprevir
[3]
Lantus
insulin glargine
Januvia/ Janumet sitagliptin phosphate
NovoRapid
insulin aspart recombinant
Humalog
insulin lispro recombinant
Levemir
insulin detemir
Victoza
liraglutide [rDNA origin]
[4] ()
Rituxan
rituximab
Avastin
bevacizumab
Herceptin
trastuzumab
Revlimid
lenalidomide
Gleevec
imatinib mesylate
Neulasta
pegfilgrastim
Velcade
bortezomib
Alimta
pemetrexed disodium
Zytiga
abiraterone acetate
[5]
Prevnar 13
pneumococcal vaccine
[6]
Micardis
telmisartan
Diovan
valsartan
[7]
Copaxone
glatiramer acetate
Avonex
interferon beta-1a
Tecfidera
dimethyl fumarate
Gilenya
fingolimod hydrochloride
Rebif
interferon beta-1a
[8]
Seretide/Advair
fluticasone propionate
Spiriva
tiotropium bromide
Symbicort
budesonide
[9] ()
Crestor
rosuvastatin calcium
Zetia
ezetimibe
Lipitor

atorvastatin calcium

[10] ,
Xarelto
rivaroxaban
Plavix
clopidogrel bisulfate
Lovenox
enoxaparin sodium
[11] HIV
Atripla
efavirenz
Truvada
emtricitabine
[12]
Epogen/Procrit
epoetin alfa
Aranesp
darbepoetin alfa

AbbVie + Eisai
Amgen + Pfizer + Takeda
JNJ + Merck + Mitsubishi Tanabe

TNFa inhibitor
TNFa inhibitor
TNFa inhibitor

Gilead Sciences
J&J + Medivir

Hepatitis C NS5B inhibitor

Hepatitis C NS3/4A inhibitor

C
C

Sanofi
Mercko+Daewoong+Ono+Almirall
Novo Nordisk
Eli Lilly
Novo Nordisk
Novo Nordisk

Insulin analogue
DPP-IV inhibitor
Insulin analogue
Insulin analogue
Insulin analogue
GLP-1 agonist

( )
DPP-4

Roche
Roche
Roche
Celgene
Novartis
Amgen + Kyowa Hakko
JNJ + Takeda
Eli Lilly
Johnson & Johnson

Anti-CD20 MAb
Anti-VEGF MAb
Anti-HER2 MAb
Immunomodulator
Tyrosine kinase inhibitor
G-CSF
Proteasome inhibitor
Thymidylate synthase inhibitor
CYP17A1 inhibitor

Pfizer + Daewoong

($bn)
2013
2014
11,014
8,778
8,367
139
23

12,890
8,915
8,807

yoy
+17%
+2%
+5%

10,283 +7275%
2,329 +10026%

7,592
6,256
3,001
2,611
2,057
2,072

8,428
6,358
3,109
2,785
2,533
2,393

+11%
+2%
+4%
+7%
+23%
+15%

7,503
6,751
6,562
4,302
4,693
4,392
2,610
2,703
1,698

7,547
7,018
6,863
4,980
4,746
4,599
2,883
2,792
2,237

+1%
+4%
+5%
+16%
+1%
+5%
+10%
+3%
+32%

Pneumococcal vaccine

3,763

4,297

+14%

Boehringer + Astellas + Bayer

Novartis + Ipsen

ATII antagonist
ATII antagonist

3,046
3,534

2,583
2,354

-15%
-33%

Teva
Biogen
Biogen
Novartis + Mitsubishi Tanabe
Merck KGaA

MS agent
Interferon beta
Nrf2 pathway activator
S1P receptor modulator
Interferon beta

4,328
3,005
876
1,957
2,513

4,237
3,013
2,909
2,506
2,444

-2%
+0%
+232%
+28%
-3%

GlaxoSmithKline + Almirall + Faes

Boehringer Ingelheim
AstraZeneca + Sigma-Tau

Beta 2
LAMA
Beta 2

8,341
4,719
3,502

7,058
4,300
3,820

-15%
-9%
+9%

AstraZeneca + Shionogi + Chiesi

Merck & Co

Statin/ HMG CoAinhibitor

Cholesterol absorption inhibitor
Statin/ HMG CoA
inhibitor

6,105
2,658

5,987
2,650

-2%
0%

2,915

2,479

-15%

Bayer + JNJ
Sanofi + BristolMyers Squibb
Sanofi

Factor Xa inhibitor
Platelet aggregation inhibitor
LMWH

1,948
2,613
2,262

3,366
2,549
2,257

+73%
-2%
0%

Gilead Sciences
Gilead Sciences + Torii

NRTI & NNRTI

NRTI

3,648
3,270

3,470
3,424

-5%
+5%

Amgen + JNJ + Kyowa Hakko Kirin

Amgen + Kyowa Hakko

Erythropoietin
Erythropoietin

3,350
2,486

3,292
2,454

-2%
-1%

Pfizer + Astellas + Jeil

( )

: Evaluate pharma,

29

Analyst | /

22

: 7000
0

()

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

( )
1,329

1,256

1,120

599

511

: PhRMA,

30

1,800

2,000
1,813

HIV/AIDS

1,600

475
159

Analyst | /

Evaluatepharma 2020 20 immunotherapy anti PD-1,

PD-L1 , pan-HER inhibitor, PCSK9
. Unmet needs R&D .

23

Evaluatepharma 2020 R&D

Pharmacological Class

WW
Product
Sales ($m)
2020

Todays
NPV
($m)

Rank

Product

Company

Phase
Current

1.

GS-9857/ SOF/
GS-5816

Gilead Sciences

Phase II

Hepatitis C NS3 protease, Hepatitis

C nucleoside NS5A & NS5B
polymerase inhibitor

4,578

24,801

2.

LCZ696

Novartis

Filed

Angiotensin II receptor (AT1)

4,156

16,246

3.

Orkambi

Vertex Pharmaceuticals

Filed

Cystic fibrosis transmembrane

conductance regulator (CFTR)
corrector

5,082

16,037

4.

Tenofovir
Alafenamide

Gilead Sciences

Phase III

Nucleoside reverse transcriptase

inhibitor (NRTI)

3,126

10,638

HIV

5.

MPDL3280A

Roche

Phase III

Anti-programmed death-1 ligand-1

(PD-L1) MAb

2,049

9,619

6.

Repatha

Amgen

Filed

Anti-proprotein convertase
subtilisin-like kexin type 9 (PCSK9)
MAb

2,236

8,213

7.

Obeticholic acid2

Intercept

Phase III

Farnesoid X receptor (FXR) agonist

1,811

7,755

8.

Ozanimod2

Receptos

Phase III

Sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) 1
receptor modulator

1,020

7,586

9.

PB2722

Puma Biotechnology

Phase III

pan-HER inhibitor

2,956

6,742

10.

MEDI4736

AstraZeneca

Phase III

Anti-programmed death-1 ligand-1

(PD-L1) MAb

1,201

6,545

11.

Grazoprevir/
Elbasvir

Merck & Co

Phase III

Hepatitis C NS3/4A protease

inhibitor & hepatitis C nucleoside
NS5A polymerase inhibitor

3,055

5,491

12.

Lampalizumab

Roche

Phase III

Anti-complement factor D MAb

1,099

5,391

13.

AZD9291

AstraZeneca

Phase III

Epidermal growth factor receptor

(EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitor

1,196

5,376

14.

Praluent

Sanofi

Filed

Anti-proprotein convertase
subtilisin-like kexin type 9 (PCSK9)
MAb

1,859

4,967

15.

Venetoclax

AbbVie

Phase III

B-cell lymphoma 2 (Bcl-2) inhibitor

1,132

4,386

: Evaluate pharma,

31

Analyst | /

24

<2014 >
*
2014

12%
(2014)

Oncology

10%

Anti-rheumatics

8%

Anti-hypertensives

6%

bronchodilator

Anti-diabetics

Anti-virals

4%

Vaccines

2%

-5%

MS
Anti-coagulants

Immunosuppressants

0%

-10%

Sensory organ

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2009~14 CAGR

<2020 >
18%

(2020e)

*
2020

16%
14%

Oncology

12%
10%

bronchodilator

8%
Anti-rheumatics

6%
Anti-virals

Anti-diabetics

Sensory organ

4%

Anti-hypertensives

MS

0%
-4%

-2%

Vaccines

2%
0%

2%

4%

6%

Immunosuppressants

Anti-coagulants

8%

10%

12%

2014~20e CAGR

: Evaluatepharma,

32

14%

Analyst | /

, (rare disease) unmet needs

. ,
.
. 7
, R&D ,
.
.

25

26

($)

Agalsidase

239,000

Lomitapide

250,000

Rilonacept

250,000

Teduglutide

295,000

Imigluderase

300,000

325,000

Galsulfase

441,000

Idursulfase

475,000

Eculizumab

486,000

487,000

575,000

Ivacaftor

C1 esterase inhibitor
Alglucosidase alfa
: FDA,

33

Analyst | /

27

EU

()

311,592

503,279

127,799

49,779

()

20

( ())

6.4

5.0

3.9

4.0

1/2

12%

EMA

10 or 6

10

FDA
(Orphan Products
Grant Program)


50%

FDA

1)

2)


3)

1)

2)

3)



5 (
)

:
:

34

Analyst | /

Unmet needs 2: ( )
.
, , ,
, . ,
unmet needs
.
unmet needs .
. 1 1 ,
. 1 3 1
1, 1 1 .
.
.
28

: IV(Intravenous) , IM(Intramuscular) , SC(Subcutaneous)

: ,

29

Lantus(Sanofi):
1 1

: Sanofi,

30 (Novo nordisk):
, unmet needs

: Novo nordisk,

35

Analyst | /

,
.
Pfizer() Lipitor() 2006 13
Statin 2010 2014 2
. Statin PCSK9 . PCSK9
Statin LDL . Pfizer
PCSK9 .
, 2015 Sanofi() / 39 L/O
1 unmet needs .
insulin glargine Lantus() 1 2014 84
$ . 2015
. 1 1 1 1
. , Novo nordisk() 1 1
.
31

32

GLP-1 agonist 1

36

Analyst | /

Unmet needs 3:
unmet needs . OECD Health data
OECD 65 2015 16% 2030 21% .
, , , 2030 4 1 65
, .
.
, , ,
.
33

OECD 65 : 2030 5 1

(%)
2015
35
2020
30

2025
2030

25

20

15

10

: OECD Health Data 2015,

34

: ,

37

UAE

OECD

Analyst | /

. ,
unmet needs .
3.0 .

35

, 6%

, 5%

64.8

, 24%

, 65%

: ,

36

3.0

<>

< >

: ,

38

< ()>

<>

Analyst | /

37

OECD GDP
0

OECD

10

12

14

16

18
16.4
(%)

11.1
11.1
11.1
11.0
10.9
10.4
10.2
10.2
10.1
10.0
9.5
9.2
9.2
9.0
8.9
8.9
8.9
8.8
8.5
7.5
7.4
7.4
7.1
7.1
6.4

5.6
5.1

: OECD Health Data 2015,

39

Analyst | /

II. !

1945 70 . R&D
1990 . 20
. R&D .
2000 2005 ,
2015 L/O. 2015 6 8
(L/O) .
.
.
2000~2005 /
. ,
() .

38

20

(pt)

,
L/O
(2015.11)

,


(2000.8)

10,000
9,000
8,000

(LG),

FDA
(2003.4)

1

(SK)
(1999.7)

5,000
4,000

(2012.4)

,

(1997~2001)

3,000
2,000

,

' '
(2004.2)

1,000

,
(CT-P13)

(2012.7)

,


(2005.11)

7,000
6,000

HM71224 L/O
(2015.3)

,
' ' .

(2005.5)

,
L/O
(2013.9)

(2010.11)

,
EMA
(2013.6)

0
97

98

99

00

01

:
:

40

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Analyst | /

10 2015
. 1990 1 20 .
R&D . 2013
3,900 .
.
. R&D

, . ,
.
. R&D
.

39

: 10 8,800

()

200

25%

R&D

180
160

20%

140
120

15%

100
80

10%

60

40

5%

20
0

0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

41

Analyst | /

R&D . 2004
2004 R&D .
12 R&D . 2011
7%, 14% . 2014 6% , 20%
. .
R&D .
2016 .
.
R&D .

40

R&D

30%

/
R&D

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

42

Analyst | /

R&D . ,
, . , . , R&D
1~3
.
.
LG 2005 24% 1990 1
. FDA R&D .
LG .
R&D
.
.
2015 R&D
.
41

: R&D

2005
3%

2006
4%

2007
4%

2008
3%

2009
4%

2010
4%

2011
5%

2012
5%

2013
6%

2014
6%
18%

5%

6%

7%

6%

8%

10%

12%

12%

13%

24%

22%

18%

17%

14%

19%

17%

16%

16%

14%

5%
4%
3%
5%

8%
5%
3%
5%

9%
5%
6%
6%

9%
5%
7%
7%

8%
6%
6%
7%

9%
8%
6%
7%

10%
7%
9%
8%

11%
8%
10%
9%

12%
8%
13%
8%

14%
8%
10%
8%

JW

5%
2%
3%
2%

2%
1%
3%
2%

4%
2%
3%
3%

3%
1%
3%
3%

3%
1%
3%
3%

4%
1%
3%
3%

6%
3%
4%
3%

6%
3%
3%
3%

6%
3%
3%
4%

68%
10%
1%

27%
12%
1%

37%
11%
2%

33%
13%
4%

40%
9%
4%

64%
20%
9%

39%
26%
7%

19%
41%
26%
9%

115%
51%
24%
11%

7%
4%
3%
5%
80%
62%
60%
33%
15%

LG

42

43

()

100

R&D

16%

90

14%

80

()

120

R&D

9%
8%

100

7%

12%

70
60

10%

50

8%

40

6%

30

80

6%
5%

60

4%

40

3%

4%

20
10

2%

0%
2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2%

20

1%

0%
2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

43

2015

Analyst | /

. .
.
.
R&D
. --
, (Open Innovation) .

44

Analyst | /

20
. . (Science)
(Money) . 1 , R&D
.
R&D R(Research) D(Development), Marketing
.
3 45 1 2
. 2016 1
. , , L/O
.

44

KB

R&D

BMCC

( IP-R&D )


2

45

Analyst | /

2 26 <Due diligence in preclinical and early clinical>

. , , R&D , L/O
L/O .

45

(due diligence)

Due diligence in pharmacokinetics

Due diligence in toxicology

Strategies for successful early clinical development

Nigel Roome

Panel discussion Practical issues in due deligence

Due diligence Global pharma perspective
:

46

Due diligence()

46

Analyst | /

L/I L/O
. , .
. Due diligence() .
.
CDA(Confidential Disclosure Agreement, )

.
.
, R&D ,
, CRO .
. .
47

LSK VEGFR2

: ,

48

Sanofi

: Sanofi,

47

Analyst | /

Due diligence() , License out

49

2016

121~23

San Francisco, U.S.A

128~30

Amsterdam, Netherlands

216~20

Hawaii, U.S.A

39~11

Amsterdam, Netherlands

(Oncology&Cancer)
ASCO-GI

ASCO Gastrointestinal Cancers Symposium

EACR

European Association for Cancer Research Conference

AACR-JSA

American Association for Cancer Research

EBCC

European Breast Cancer Conference

ASCO

American Society of Clinical Oncology

63~7

Chicago, U.S.A

ADA

AMERICAN DIABETES ASSOCIATION

610~14

New Orleans, U.S.A.

ESMO

European Society for Medical Oncology

107~11

Copenhagen, Denmark

AACR

American Association for Cancer Research

1129~122

Munich, Germany

IASLC

World Conference on Lung Cancer

SABCS

San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium

124~7

Vienna, Austria

126~10

San Antonio, U.S.A

(Endocrinology)
ENDO

Endocrine Society

41~4

Boston, U.S.A

ECE

European Congress of Endocrinology

528~31

Munich, Germany

ECO

European Congress of Obesity

61~4

Gothenburg, Sweden

ESCE

European Society for Comparative Endocrinology

821~25

Leuven, Belgium

ETA

European Thyroid Association

93~6

Copenhagen, Denmark

EASD

European Association for the Study of Diabetes

912~16

Munich, Germany

(Rheumatology)
EULAR

European League Against Rheumatism

APLAR

Asia Pacific League of Associations for Rheumatology Congress

68~11

London, U.K

926~29

Shanghai, China

23~6

Boston, U.S.A

(Neurology&Psychiatry)
INS

The International Neuropsychological Society

EPA

European Congress of Psychiatry

312~15

Madrid, Spain

AANS

American Association of Neurological Surgeons

430~54

Chicago, U.S.A

AAIC

Alzheimer's Association International Conference

724~28

Toronto, Canada

ANA

American Neurological Association

1016~18

Baltimore, U.S.A

(Dermatology)
AAD

American Academy of Dermatology

34~8

Washington D.C, U.S.A

PDA

Pacific Dermatologic Association

810~14

California, U.S.A

EADO

European Association of Dermato-Oncology

831~93

Vienna, Austria

48

Analyst | /

50

(ASCO)

: Google,

49

Analyst | /

, , !
51

2020 7

<2012>

<2017>

<2020>

2.3

11

23

(0)

4
(1)

10
(3)

50

()

(2013~2017) 5
1. R&D : R&D 2
2. : 5 5
3. : 58,000 1
4. : 11

5. : 5

<R&D>

<>

<>

<>

<>

R&D

R&D

: ,

52

1
(2012~2014)

, ,
(5~6)

2
(2015~2017)

,
(6~8)

3
(2018~2020)

(2~3)

: ,

50

Analyst | /

III. Valuation

/
. ,
. .
R&D , .
.
. 2015 2% 93%
. 2015
rerating
.

53

2015 KOSPI

(2015=100)
260

KOSPI
KOPSI

220

180

140

100

60
15/01

15/03

15/05

15/07

15/09

15/11

16/01

51

16/03

Analyst | /

, .
. L/O
. 1)
L/O , 2) L/O
reference .
peer , , .
, , ,
.

54

KOSPI trailing PBR

()

KOSPI trailing PBR

3.5
3.0

2.5
2.0

1.5
1.0

0.5
0.0

02

03

52

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Analyst | /

Top picks : R&D +

Top picks . R&D .
, , .
. PER money flow,
.
.
2016 .

55

R&D /

JW

SK

LG

13

15

novel
(first in class, best in class)

L/O

R&D

:
: , : , :

53

Analyst | /

top picks .
DA-9801
. unmet needs . DA-9801
2015 2 . 2016 3 FDA 3
. Roy freeman
2
L/O 2016
. 2007 L/O
,
.
2015 L/O R&D . 2016 JP
, 2 2, 3 7
. 10
.
2016 RAF HM95573 2 .
2015 B-RAF ,
C-RAF, N-RAS .
2016 .
.

56

, ,

()

(3/17)

170900.KS

BUY

220,000

154,000

43%

DA-9801 2 L/O, ,

128940.KS

BUY

1,000,000

674,000

48%

L/O 2

185750.KS

BUY

162,000

131,000

24%

, 2, 1 1

006120.KS

SK

BUY

100,000

82,100

22%

4 , /

000100.KS

BUY

330,000

280,500

18%

API , R&D

115180.KQ

N/A

N/A

42,000

54

2016

Q203 2 Q203, Q301 L/O

Analyst | /

57

/ (1)
1H16

2H16

1H17

2H17

2018

Efpeglenatide (GLP-1)

P3 (US)

HM12470 ()

P2 (US)

P2

P1 (US)

P1

HM12525 (GLP/GCG)

P2 (US)

P2

Eflapegrastim ()

P3 (US)

()

P2 (US)

HM61713 (, BTD)

P3
P2
P2 (US)

P2

P2 (US)

P2

P3 (US)

P3

CKD-581 ()

P2 (KR)

P2

CKD-516 ()

P2 (KR)

P2

CKD-519 ()

P2 (KR)

P2

P1 (EU)

P1

(US)

P1 (US)

P1

P1 (JP)

P3 (KR)

P1 (JP)

(KR)

HM71224 (BTK Inhibitor)

HM95573 (RAF Inhibitor)

DA-9801 (, )

FDA P2

DA-3880 ( )

P3

CKD-506 (RA, HDAC6 Inhibitor)

CKD-504 ()
CKD-11101 (, )

JM-010 ( LID )
MLR-1023 ( )

P2 (EU)
2a (KR)

P2

2b (KR)

LG
LBEC0101 ( )

P3 (JP, KR)

LBAL ( )

P2 (JP)

( )

P3 (US, 3Q)

BLA

(US)

JW
CWP291 (, P2 )

P1 (US, KR)

P2 (US, KR)

2b (KR)

P3 (KR)

P2

YH14618 ( )
:

55

Analyst | /

58

/ (1)
1H16

2H16

P1 (US)

1H17

2H17

2018

SK

P1

IVIG

BLA ()

Apatinib ()

P3 (US)

P3

HL161 ()

(CA)

HL036 ()

P1 (US)

P1

P1 (KR, 3Q)

P2 (KR)

2a

P3 (US)

P2 (US)
P2

Q301 (, )

2a (US)

Q203 ( )

P1 (US)

P3 (US)

P3

VMD202 ( )
VMD202 ()

P3 (US)
P1

VMD202 ( )

P3
P2 (US)

P3 (US)

P2
P3

GX-188E ()

P2 (EU, KR)

GX-H9 ()

P2 (EU, KR)

P3 (EU, KR)

GX-I7 ()

P1 (US)

P1

CG200745 ()

P1/2 (KR)

P1/2

CG200745 (MDS, , P2 )

P1/2 (KR)

P1/2

56

Analyst | /

. Bloomberg Intelligence, Evaluate
pharma, .

, , .
R&D . Nature
, small molecule biologics small molecule
.

59

2014
A

A-1
B

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 2020 2021 2022

14

2030

)
1

($mm)

Upfront fee &

Milestone ($mm)

($mm)

(D) *

()

(F) *

EBIT ()

(G) * 90%

FCF ()

EBIT (H) * (1 - )

PVIF ()

NPV

Continuing value

NPV + CV

(NPV + CV) *

(A * B * C)

FCF (I) * (with WACC)

2030
terminal growth

57

Analyst | /

60

( vs. )
All indications

100%

Lead indications

90%

83%

80%
70%

86%

68%

65% 67%

60%

60%
50%

40%

40%

32%

30%
20%

10%

15%

10%

0%
Phase I
to Phase II

Phase II
to Phase III

Phase III
to NDA

NDA
to Approval

Phase I
to LOA

: Nature reviews,

61

( vs. )
small molecule
biologics (large molecule)

100%

91%

96%

84%
74%

80%
63%

61%
53%

60%
38%

40%

32%

13%

20%

0%
Phase I
to Phase II

Phase II
to Phase III

Phase III
to NDA

NDA
to Approval

: Nature reviews,

62

MNE R&D

: Nature reviews,

58

Phase I
to LOA

Analyst | /

Peer valuation
63

valuation

(, , , %)

2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F

2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F

2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
EPS
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
PER ()
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
PBR ()
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
EV/EBITDA ()
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F

2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F
ROE (%)
2014A
2015A
2016F
2017F

SK

1,000,000
674,000
7,033
KRW

220,000
154,000
1,283
KRW

162,000
131,000
1,233
KRW

100,000
82,100
1,995
KRW

330,000
280,500
3,128
KRW

761
1,318
1,220
1,593

579
581
600
642

544
592
776
896

7,284
5,269
5,665
7,620

1,017
1,129
1,233
1,360

34
212
178
241

49
55
52
64

43
55
55
76

150
114
147
190

74
86
74
102

43
162
124
173

37
49
47
57

35
-7
37
50

14
94
77
115

91
126
106
127

3,410
14,819
10,035
13,979

4,977
6,100
5,829
7,039

3,736
-720
3,933
5,359

-1,173
2,356
3,159
4,742

8,155
11,302
9,467
11,387

29.4
49.1
66.9
48.0

18.4
24.1
26.4
21.9

17.5
N/A
32.8
24.1

N/A
30.8
26.0
17.3

20.8
24.1
30.0
25.0

2.0
11.3
8.8
7.2

1.4
2.1
2.1
1.9

1.9
2.9
3.5
3.1

1.2
1.3
1.4
1.3

1.5
2.3
2.2
2.1

21.4
30.0
31.2
23.6

11.3
15.8
16.7
14.0

9.2
15.4
17.6
13.7

19.1
25.7
20.5
18.4

15.4
23.6
25.9
20.2

174
185
-277
-254

131
71
27
7.4

73
112
153
147

2,306
2,629
2,378
2,611

-357
-328
-354
-392

9.2
27.0
16.9
19.5

8.1
9.3
8.2
9.1

11.2
-2.1
11.2
13.8

1.1
6.9
5.0
7.1

7.3
7.6
6.0
7.5

:
: 2016 3 17

59

Analyst | /

64
(: USD)

peer valuation (1)

Novartis

Pfizer

Roche

Sanofi

Merck

GSK

Astrazeneca

Gilead

Abbvie

74

29

251

82

86

20

29

90

56

($)
($)

192

180

216

102

37

98

72

123

91

2014A

21.3

16.8

24.6

23.3

29.5

24.0

72.4

12.7

20.4

2015A

30.0

16.7

26.5

23.3

35.1

7.9

30.5

8.5

14.4

2016F

14.9

12.7

16.7

13.1

13.4

16.8

14.2

7.4

11.3

2014A

3.2

2.7

11.7

1.8

2.9

15.7

4.6

9.2

59.8

2015A

2.7

3.1

11.2

1.8

3.0

13.0

4.7

7.8

24.2

2016F

2.3

2.8

8.3

1.6

2.4

20.1

4.1

3.8

9.5

2014A

4.2

1.4

12.0

4.4

3.5

0.9

1.0

8.0

1.1

2015A

7.4

1.1

10.8

3.6

2.8

2.7

2.2

12.4

3.2

2016F

4.9

2.3

14.8

6.2

6.3

1.2

4.0

12.2

5.0

2014A

52,419

49,605

51,906

42,510

15,095

37,899

26,547

24,890

19,960

2015A

49,440

48,851

50,050

38,696

14,258

36,563

24,708

32,639

22,859

2016F

48,944

51,145

51,274

41,816

16,959

35,840

23,313

31,554

25,896

2014A

11,089

13,249

15,409

8,195

2,270

5,896

2,235

15,265

3,411

2015A

8,977

11,824

14,368

6,351

2,100

15,776

4,136

22,193

7,537

2016F

9,147

18,476

18,525

11,077

4,182

9,319

6,738

21,059

11,245

2014A

14.6

10.5

14.1

11.2

11.2

16.2

16.8

8.7

26.4

2015A

15.5

12.7

13.3

10.8

15.1

6.6

13.4

6.0

14.2

2016F

14.7

9.1

11.0

9.4

10.8

10.6

9.3

5.5

9.8

2014A

10,210

9,135

10,206

5,832

1,537

4,540

1,233

12,101

1,774

2015A

17,783

6,960

9,214

4,759

1,237

12,872

2,825

18,108

5,144

2016F

11,638

14,120

12,675

8,061

2,791

5,980

5,089

17,128

8,165

6,497

560

14,097

7,531

442

22,401

3,186

678

6,603

2015A

9,162

32,579

14,084

6,323

13,465

10,727

7,742

-4,028

23,264

2016F

14,523

30,323

10,412

5,717

12,139

16,282

10,220

-12,464

20,038

2014A

14.1

12.4

48.0

7.8

10.2

49.0

5.8

90.3

56.9

2015A

24.1

10.2

43.7

7.5

9.1

179.6

14.8

106.6

180.9

2016F

13.8

18.5

51.2

12.7

17.5

80.4

18.0

66.7

130.6

PER ()

PBR ()

EPS ($)

($)

($)

EV/EBITDA ()

($)

($)
2014A

ROE (%)

: Bloomberg,

60

Analyst | /

65

peer valuation (2)

Amgen

Teva

Celgene

Bayer

Merck

Takeda

Allergan

Eli lilly

($)

144

57

72

112

57

48

63

98

($)

108

200

80

93

147

38

105

76

2014A

21.9

15.9

26.9

28.1

25.8

36.2

42.7

43.3

2015A

17.7

35.5

29.5

23.8

29.5

N/A

30.5

53.6

2016F

13.3

10.1

20.5

13.7

24.4

22.2

26.3

17.1

2014A

4.7

2.1

5.0

4.6

16.8

1.6

6.6

13.7

2015A

4.4

2.2

6.4

3.9

21.7

2.2

8.0

15.9

2016F

3.5

1.4

5.1

3.2

17.4

2.1

6.9

6.8

2014A

6.8

3.6

2.2

5.5

1.8

1.3

1.2

2.5

2015A

9.2

1.8

2.3

5.5

2.0

-1.7

0.9

2.0

2016F

10.8

5.6

3.5

8.1

2.3

2.2

2.4

5.7

2014A

20,063

20,272

19,616

54,918

15,825

16,892

15,879

7,670

2015A

21,662

19,652

19,959

51,420

16,062

16,253

16,560

9,256

2016F

22,291

24,354

20,667

52,923

17,273

16,254

17,743

11,155

6,191

3,951

2,660

7,167

6,146

1,391

2,591

2,519

2015A

8,470

6,176

4,439

6,938

7,358

-1,182

1,890

2,255

2016F

10,655

8,221

4,817

7,957

7,553

1,260

4,478

5,973

2014A

15.1

10.4

19.8

13.6

17.4

11.7

30.6

30.7

2015A

11.6

14.1

23.5

11.9

19.1

37.1

49.5

38.3

2016F

9.1

6.5

14.4

9.4

17.8

12.4

20.6

16.1

2014A

5,158

3,055

2,391

4,551

4,719

1,065

2,004

2,000

2015A

6,939

1,588

2,408

4,562

5,188

-1,333

1,565

1,602

2016F

8,116

5,919

3,750

6,651

5,841

715

3,994

4,659

3,689

8,058

3,195

23,429

-2,527

2,051

-4,011

-675

PER ()

PBR ()

EPS ($)

($)

($)
2014A

EV/EBITDA ()

($)

($)
2014A
2015A

174

3,011

3,527

18,809

-2,823

806

-2,241

7,699

2016F

10,882

27,737

1,685

16,478

-3,059

1,412

-270

4,261

2014A

21.5

13.3

14.5

16.8

63.9

4.5

13.4

33.0

2015A

25.8

15.6

23.4

18.5

79.9

-6.3

10.7

25.7

2016F

27.2

15.5

23.7

23.4

75.9

3.7

26.3

61.4

ROE (%)

: Bloomberg,

61

Analyst | /

66

peer valuation ( )

LG JW

674,000

147,000

280,500

185,500

107,000

154,000

220,000

131,000

103,000

28,100

62,200

37,000

()

7,033

8,569

3,128

2,168

12,451

1,283

1,051

1,233

461

1,049

1,031

693

KRW

KRW

KRW

KRW

KRW

KRW

KRW

KRW

KRW

KRW

KRW

KRW

2014A

27.7

40.0

19.3

18.9

34.9

18.5

306.0

17.5

21.2

24.3

N/A

360.0

2015A

49.1

40.7

22.1

22.3

60.0

23.7

16.1

N/A

28.4

36.3

88.3

304.2

2016F

36.8

N/A

24.5

26.4

50.7

23.3

20.7

30.8

N/A

53.1

68.5

41.3

2014A

1.9

2.0

1.3

1.8

3.2

1.4

1.1

1.9

1.3

2.8

2.4

1.0

2015A

11.0

12.6

2.0

2.2

5.5

2.1

1.5

2.9

1.7

4.1

3.9

2.8

2016F

8.5

N/A

2.1

2.1

6.7

2.2

1.7

3.5

N/A

N/A

4.0

3.0

PER ()

PBR ()

EPS
2014A

3,608

378

8,788

7,260

1,080

4,966

397

3,738

2,820

667

-125

38

2015A

14,830

3,168

12,309

8,213

1,409

6,192

10,560

-720

3,914

702

686

120

2016F

18,320

N/A

11,433

7,017

2,112

6,599

10,399

4,211

4,209

939

908

N/A

2014A

761

533

1,017

975

471

579

631

544

181

142

426

413

2015A

1,318

777

1,129

1,048

603

581

705

592

222

142

451

434

2016F

1,198

N/A

1,219

1,121

728

617

782

767.6

N/A

153

489

460

2014A

34

11

74

97

201

49

21

54

31

28

16

18

2015A

212

147

86

92

259

55

64

43

28

23

25

22

2016F

192

N/A

98

107

311

62

79

57.4

N/A

22

30

32

2014A

20.5

74.6

13.5

13.9

17.3

11.3

20.2

9.2

6.0

14.6

17.9

14.9

2015A

29.2

49.0

19.8

17.9

29.7

15.6

12.4

15.4

13.5

28.9

21.1

24.1

2016F

28.9

N/A

21.7

16.7

32.9

15.1

N/A

16.5

N/A

N/A

19.4

18.7

EV/EBITDA ()

2014A

36

21

91

84

113

37

35

24

-2

2015A

154

179

126

95

154

49

48

-7

15

25

12

2016F

191

N/A

132

79

241

53

52

40

N/A

18

15

N/A

174

48.0

-357

68.4

727

134

269

73.2

-2.5

-83.1

258

273

N/A

N/A

N/A

2014A
2015A

208

N/A

-408

-3.2

644

77.9

N/A

274

N/A

2016F

-19

N/A

-402

43.1

522

41.1

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

309

N/A

2014A

7.6

5.2

7.1

9.8

9.7

8.1

0.7

14.3

6.2

11.3

-0.8

0.3

2015A

12.8

30.4

9.7

11.4

11.0

8.6

7.7

-2.2

8.0

11.2

5.3

0.9

2016F

22.4

N/A

9.2

7.9

13.9

9.6

8.7

11.8

N/A

N/A

5.6

6.1

ROE (%)

: ,
: ,

62

Analyst | /

67

MSCI vs

(2003=100)
MSCI

350

MSCI
300
250

200
150
100
50
0
03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 13/01 14/01 15/01 16/01

: Bloomberg,

68

NSYE vs

(2003=100)
NYSE

300

NYSE
250
200
150
100

50
0
03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 13/01 14/01 15/01 16/01

: Bloomberg,

69

KOSPI vs

(2003=100)
1,200

KOSPI
KOSPI

1,000
800
600
400
200
0
03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 13/01 14/01 15/01 16/01

: Bloomberg,

63

Analyst | /

70

/ 2011 (1)

71

/ 2011 (2)

(2011=100)

(2011=100)

1,200

300

1,000

LG

250

JW

800

200

KOSPI

600

150

KOSPI

400

100

200

50

0
11/01

12/01

13/01

14/01

15/01

16/01

0
11/01

12/01

13/01

: Bloomberg,

: Bloomberg,

72

73

/ 2015 (1)

(2015=100)

900

300

800

700

250

600

KOSPI

500
400

15/01

16/01

/ 2015 (2)

(2015=100)

JW

14/01

LG

KOSPI

200
150

300
200

100

100
0
15/01 15/03 15/05 15/07 15/09 15/11 16/01 16/03

: Bloomberg,

64

50
15/01 15/03 15/05 15/07 15/09 15/11 16/01 16/03

: Bloomberg,

Analyst | /

74

2011 (1)

(2011=100)

400

300
250
200

2011 (2)

(2011=100)
Merck
Novo Nordisk
BMS
Roche
Pfizer
Novartis
MSCI

350

75

700

Celgene

600

Amgen
Gilead

500

MSCI

400
300

150

200

100

100

50
0
11/01

12/01

13/01

14/01

15/01

16/01

0
11/01

12/01

: Bloomberg,

: Bloomberg,

76

77

2015 (1)

(2015=100)
160
150

140
130

Merck
Novo Nordisk
BMS
Roche
Pfizer
Novartis
MSCI

13/01

14/01

15/01

16/01

2015 (2)

(2015=100)

Celgene

130

Amgen

125

Gilead

120

MSCI

115

120

110

110

105

100

100

90

95

80

90

70

85

60
15/01 15/03 15/05 15/07 15/09 15/11 16/01 16/03

80
15/01 15/03 15/05 15/07 15/09 15/11 16/01 16/03

: Bloomberg,

: Bloomberg,

65

Analyst | /

Appendix
1) /
2014 1 5 5% .
Evaluatepharma 2014 7,430(840) 2020
9,870 5% .
.
.
30%, 18%, 8% 56%
. , , , , (Pharmerging)
.
78

($bn)

1200

Growth per Year

12%

10%

1000

8%
800

6%

600

4%
2%

400

0%

200

-2%

-4%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

: Evaluate pharma,

79

(2014)

, 30%
, 44%

, 18%
, 8%

: Evaluate pharma,

66

Analyst | /

10 11% 100
. 50 29% .
, 1 (Humira) . 2014
128.9$ 2015 9% 140.1$
. 2 C . 2014 (Sovaldi) 102.3$
, 2015 C (Harvoni) 2015 138.6$
C .
10 3, 3,
2 . 3
, C (HCV) HBV, HIV , TNF-a
(TNF-a Inhibitor) , , 3 . TNF-a
2015 , 2016
.
. 5
.
80

10

2013

2014

11,014

12,890

Monoclonal antibody

139

10,283

Small molecule chemistry

Recombinant product

Humira

AbbVie + Eisai

Sovaldi

Gilead Sciences

Enbrel

Amgen + Pfizer + Takeda

8,778

8,915

Remicade

JNJ + Merck & Co + Mitsubishi

8,367

8,807

Monoclonal antibody

Lantus

Sanofi

7,592

8,428

Recombinant product

Rituxan

Roche

7,503

7,547

Monoclonal antibody

Seretide/Advair

GlaxoSmithKline + Almirall + Faes

8,341

7,058

Small molecule chemistry

Avastin

Roche

6,751

7,018

Monoclonal antibody

Herceptin

Roche

6,562

6,863

Monoclonal antibody

Januvia/ Janumet

Merck + Daewoong + Ono + Almirall

6,256

6,358

Small molecule chemistry

10

: Evaluate pharma,

81

()

Global pharmaceutical sales

1200

18%
yoy

16%

1000
14%
800

12%
10%

600

8%
400

6%
4%

200
2%
0

0%
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

: ThomsonReuters,

67

2013

2014

Analyst | /

2)
. 10
10 7 .
, , ,
, . ,

.
82

10 7

<1>

<2>

<3>

<4>

<5>

<6> (), ()

<7>

<8>

<9>

<10>

: Google, Fabian Weber,

68

Analyst | /

.
Unmet needs .
.
(efficacy) (safety),
.
83

Original

()
Generic

()
Biosimilar

84

, ,

(500~900 Daltons)

(4,000~140,000 Daltons)

//

//

85

(small molecule) Large biologics

: Amgen,

69

Analyst | /

3) M&A
M&A . 2015 M&A
. 2015 .
2015 2 170$ , 2015 11 1,550$ .
2016 1 .
2015 7 405$ .
.
2015 3 (Pharmacyclics) 230$
. (imbruvica) ,
.
,
2015 12 . ,
.
2016 M&A . M&A two track
, M&A.
R&D M&A . 2015
, CEO 2015 M&A
. 2016 3
. .

86

M&A value: 2015 M&A

($bn)

M&A Deal value

300
250
200
150
100

50
0
2005

2006

: ,

70

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Analyst | /

87 (2014 2020 )
<>

<2020 >
2014

2015

2020

Novartis

46.1

49.4

Pfizer

Pfizer

44.5

48.9

Novartis

53.3

Roche

40.1

50.1

Roche

44.7

Sanofi

38.2

38.7

Merck&Co

42.0

Merck&Co

36.6

39.5

Sanofi

38.9

J&J

30.7

31.4

J&J

32.7

GlaxoSmithKline

30.3

36.6

GlaxoSmithKline

31.4

AstraZeneca

25.7

24.7

Actavis

28.4

Gilead Siences

24.5

32.6

AstraZeneca

27.8

10 AbbVie

19.9

22.9

10 Gilead Siences

26.9

11 Amgen

19.3

21.7

11 AbbVie

26.0

12 Teva

17.5

19.7

12 Amgen

22.8

13 Eli Lilly

16.3

20.0

13 Novo Nordisk

22.6

14 Bayer

16.3

22.0

14 Bristol-Myers Squibb

22.0

15 Novo Nordisk

15.8

16.1

15 Eli Lilly

18.9

16 Boehringer Ingelheim

13.4

N/A

16 Bayer

18.0

17 Takeda

13.0

16.3

17 Celgene

16.8

18 Bristol-Myers Squibb

12.0

16.6

18 Teva Pharmaceutical

15.3

19 Actavis

11.1

N/A

19 Boehringer Ingelheim

15.2

20 Celgene

7.5

9.3

20 Takeda

14.9

top 20

478.9
264.2
743.1

60.0

top 20

563.4
423.4
986.8

: Pfizer 2020 Allergan 2020 Pfizer 2015 Allergan

2: ,
: Evaluate pharma,

71

Analyst | /

88

M&A

72

Analyst | /

4)
89

FDA
10 , 26(3) . 1
12%

: IND: Investigational New Drug Application, NDA: New Drug Application, BLA: Biologics License Application
: PhRMA,

90

, , ,

:
:
: , , ,

(Pharmacokinetics)

cytoxicity

(20~80)
2a:

, ,
, , ,

100~200 ( )
2b:

, ,

,

1

(controlled)

2 ,

()

( , post marketing surveillance)
, ,
3 , ,
( , post marketing clinical trials)

uncontrolled
, ,

controlled

: ,

73

Analyst | /

91

10

()
450

400
350
300

250
200
150
100

50
0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

: ,

92

2007

()
160

2014

140

2015

120
100
80
60
40

20
0

CRO

: ,

93

()
35

2007

30

2014

30

2015

25
1818

20
12

15

16

14

11

1111

10
5

: ,

74

98

8
3

67

67

11
8

5
11

Analyst | /

94

2010

2010

6%

7%

2015

6%

25%

4%

4%

2015

2%

12%

38%

4%

6%

4%

6%

95

11%

8%

11%

: ,

12%

4%

6%

7%

6%

11%

: ,

75

Analyst | /

(170900.KS)
BUY() / TP 220,000()
2016 ST
(128940.KS)
BUY() / TP 1,000,000()
R&D !
(185750.KS)
BUY() / TP 162,000()
R&D
SK(006120.KS)
BUY() / TP 100,000()

(000100.KS)
BUY() / TP 330,000()
,
(115180.KQ)
Not rated
,

76

Analyst | /

(170900.KS)

Tel. 368-6170 / jhkwak@eugenefn.com

2016 ST

BUY()

BUY, 22

BUY 22
. 1 1,250 6,290
. 2016 DA-9801

unmet needs . DA-9801
2015 2 . 2016 3
FDA 3 .
Roy freeman
2
L/O 2016

(12M, )
(3/17)

(: 2016. 3. 17)
KOSPI(pt)

1,988.0

KOSDAQ(pt)

691.5

()

5,000

()

1,283.2

52 /()

180,000 / 96,000

52 Beta

2.27

()

8,333

(3M,)

82

(3M,)

, , 1
, 3 . 2016 , 2019
, 2024
2.5

()
2,000

(15A, %)

0.5

(%)

25.1

26

26.4

12.9

Glaxo Group Limited

9.0

(%)

1M

3M

6M

12M

7.3

11.6

26.2

58.8

KOSPI

1.8

11.1

25.6

60.8

(12)

2014

2015

2016F

()

578.6

581.0

600.4

()

49.4

55.4

51.9

()

45.7

63.9

59.4

()

37.5

48.6

46.9

4,977

6,100

5,829

(%)

22.6

(4.4)

PER()

18.4

24.1

26.4

ROE(%)

8.1

9.3

8.2

PBR()

1.4

2.1

2.1

11.3

15.8

16.7

EPS()
1,600

DA-9801
1.6 ,

1,580

800
400

EV/EBITDA()
:

SIVEXTRO
()

DA-3880
DA-9801
() (Darbepoetin
alfa)

DA-1229
(evogliptin)
Suganon

12,984

(%)

2016
. , ,
5
. 1 Zyvox
Zyvox

1,200

220,000
154,000

77

Analyst | /

96

() (a)

1,092

EBITDA

76

EV/EBITDA ()

14.4

() (b)

629

SIVEXTRO ()

277

DA-9801 ()

158

DA-3880 (Darbepoetin alfa)

114

DA-1229 (evogliptin) Suganon

81

() (c)

78

() (d)

27

() (e=a+b+c-d)

1,772

() (f)

7,925

(g=e/f)

223,629

2016
7 18.0 20%

80%

30%

97

()
2,000
1,600

DA-9801
1.6 ,

1,580

1,200
800
400
0

: ,

78

SIVEXTRO
()

DA-3880
DA-9801
() (Darbepoetin
alfa)

DA-1229
(evogliptin)
Suganon

Analyst | /

98

R&D

()

II

III

DA-8159
(Zydena)

PDE-5

Mezzion

JP

Meiji Seika

KR

(ABSSSI)
DA-7218
(Sivextro)

Oxazolidinone

(KR)
NDA(US)

(US)

Merck(MSD)

(EU)

Merck(MSD)

(KR)

(HABP/VABP)

Global Merck&Bayer
(KR)

DA-1229
(Suganon/
Sugamet)

DA-6886

DPP-4

5-HT4

()

DA-9701
(Motilitone)

DA-9801

CH

Luye

IND(IND)

Alkem

IND(BRZ)

Eurofarma

IND(RUS)

Geropharm

KR

(KR)

US

KR

US

DA-9805

, ,

IND(US)

(KR)

(KR)

DA-3801
(Gonadopin)

Recombinant FSH
()

DA-3803

Recombinant hCG
(
)

DA-3031
(Dulastine)

PEGylated-G-SCF
(PEG
)

DMB-3111

Trastuzumab

DA-3880

Darbepoetin

NDA(KR)

(KR)

JP

Meiji Seika

EU

JP

: ,

79

SKK

Analyst | /

99

: ,

100

: 2015
: ,

80

Analyst | /

2016 . 2007
L/O ,
, . 5
. 1 Zyvox
Zyvox .

101

1 L/O

DA-7867
DA-7867
DA-7157
DA-7218

Trius L/O

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

MAA filed

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Phase 1 data
Phase 2 data
Bayer partnership
1st Phase 3 data
2nd Phase 3 data
Cubist acquisition

NDA filing
FDA NDA Approved

: ,

81

Analyst | /

102
SIVEXTRO

($mm)

2012

10

11

12

13

14

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

3,300

3,309

3,375

3,442

3,511

3,581

3,653

3,726

3,801

3,810

3,820

3,830

3,840

3,850

3,860

3,870

3,880

1,352

1,366

1,369

1,373

1,376

1,380

1,383

1,387

1,391

1,394

1,398

1,401

1,405

1,409

1,412

1,416

1,420

1%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

41%

41%

40%

39%

39%

38%

37%

37%

37%

37%

37%

37%

37%

37%

37%

37%

5%

10%

14%

16%

17%

17%

17%

17%

17%

17%

17%

17%

17%

17%

17%

($mm)

169

344

492

573

621

633

646

648

649

651

653

655

656

658

660

($mm)

10

21

29

34

37

38

39

39

39

39

39

39

39

39

40

()

111

227

324

378

410

418

426

428

429

430

431

432

433

434

435

EBIT ()

100

204

292

340

369

376

384

385

386

387

388

389

390

391

392

FCF ()

76

155

222

259

280

286

292

292

293

294

295

295

296

297

298

PVIF

1.00

0.94

0.88

0.83

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.53

0.50

0.47

0.44

0.41

PV

76

146

196

214

218

209

200

188

177

167

157

148

139

131

123

MRSA

2.0%

Zyvox

0.3%

1,345

2013

1,353

41%

NPV

2,489

Continuing value

279

6%

NPV + CV

2,767

EBIT

()

7,925

()

34,918

82

Terminal growth rate

-10%

90%

Success rate

100%

24%

WACC

6.5%

1,100

/$

Analyst | /

DA-9801 .
.
.
, .
.
, , , , ,
. . unmet
needs .

103

: ,

83

Analyst | /

2016 DA-9801
. DA-9801 .
.
(aspirin, ) .
. ,
.
,
. , .
.
multi-component, multi-target . .
(clinically validated
efficacy) .
.

104

FDA

: FDA, ,

84

Analyst | /

2 12 1 3 , 300mg, 600mg, 900mg

. 14 2013 2015 1
. Roy
freeman
. 2 2016
.
2015 2 . 2016 3 FDA 3 .

105 DA-9801
DA-9801 ()
30~40% . 20142100, 140, 20353250

($mm)

CAGR

2011

2012

2013

4%

7,108

7,260

7,701

($mm)

6%

10

11

12

13

14

15

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

8,337

8,678

9,033

9,402

9,786 10,187 10,603

11,037

11,488

11,958

12,447

12,956

13,485

14,037

14,611

15,208

15,830

2,500

2,650

2,809

2,978

3,156

3,346

3,546

3,759

3,985

4,224

4,477

4,746

5,030

5,332

5,652

5,991

6,351

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

yoy
Lyrica

10
CAGR

4,158

4,595

5,168

5,581

5,916

6,271

6,648

7,046

7,469

7,917

8,392

8,896

9,430

9,996

10,595

11,231

11,905

12,619

13,376

13%

11%

12%

8%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

3%

5%

15%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

100

177

564

1,195

1,267

1,343

1,424

1,509

1,600

1,696

1,797

1,905

100

177

564

1,195

1,267

1,343

1,424

1,509

1,600

1,696

1,797

1,905

()

1,104

1,950

6,202

13,149

13,938

14,774

15,661

16,601

17,597

18,652

19,772

20,958

EBIT ()

221

390

1,240

2,630

2,788

2,955

3,132

3,320

3,519

3,730

3,954

4,192

yoy

16%

3,693

2
3 3

($mm)

Upfrontfee& Milestone ($mm)

($mm)

FCF()
PVIF
PV
NPV
Continuingvalue

177

312

992

2,104

2,230

2,364

2,506

2,656

2,815

2,984

3,163

3,353

1.00

0.94

0.88

0.83

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.53

0.50

0.47

0.44

0.41

0.39

137

228

680

1,354

1,348

1,341

1,335

1,329

1,322

1,316

1,310

1,304

13,004
EBIT

20%

Terminalgrowthrate

NPV+ CV

15,769

2,765

20%

Successrate

50%

7,884

WACC

6.5%

L/O

80%

1,577

1,100 /$

()

7,925

()

19,898

-10%

85

Analyst | /

DA-3880 . 2016 , 2019 , 2024

2 EPO
2.5 .
1 , 3 .
.

106

2
,

DA-3880

, South Korea

CKD-11101

1 , 2016 3
3
L/O (2016.01)
2016 1 , 3 3

Avesthagen Pharma (APAG), India*

Avdesp

Agreement with Greece-based ElpenPharmaceutical

Cipla and Hetero Drugs, India*

Actorise

Similar biologic launched in India in June 2014

Dr Reddys Laboratories, India*

Cresp

Similar biologic launched in India in March 2010

Torrent Pharmaceuticals, India*

Darbatitor

Similar biologic launched in India in 2014

Merck, USA

MK-2578

2010

107

DA-3880: 2

Epogen
(Amgen)

Aranesp
(Amgen)
Glycosylation

: Amgen,

86

Analyst | /

108 DA-3880
DA-3880
(Darbepoetin alfa)

10

11

12

13

14

15

()

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

7,349

6,248

6,158

6,069

5,982

5,896

5,811

5,727

5,645

5,564

5,484

5,405

5,327

5,250

5,175

5,100

5,027

4,954

4,883

Aranesp (Amgen)

2,743

2,486

2,454

2,422

2,391

2,176

1,980

1,802

1,640

1,492

1,358

1,236

1,124

1,023

931

847

771

702

639

Epogen (Amgen)

3,450

3,350

3,292

3,235

3,179

2,893

2,633

2,396

2,180

1,984

1,805

1,643

1,495

1,360

1,238

1,127

1,025

933

849

1 1

859

859

859

859

859

1,963

2,002

2,043

2,083

2,125

2,168

2,211

5%

10%

13%

14%

15%

13%

17%

23%

27%

30%

30%

30%

()

30

60

78

84

90

179

238

329

394

446

455

464

Upfront fee & Milestone ()

()
()

331

661

860

926

992

1,965

2,621

3,617

4,331

4,909

5,007

5,107

EBIT

66

132

172

185

198

393

524

723

866

982

1,001

1,021

FCF

56

112

146

157

169

334

446

615

736

834

851

868

PVIF
PV
NPV
Continuing value

1.00

0.94

0.88

0.83

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.53

0.50

0.47

0.44

0.41

0.39

44

82

100

101

102

190

237

308

346

368

352

338

2,568
716

NPV + CV

3,284

EBIT

20%

Terminal growth rate

1,136

15%

Success rate

1,136

WACC

6.5%

()

7,925

1,100 /$

()

14,336

-10%
35%

87

Analyst | /

(evogliptin) DPP-4 . DPP-4 GLP-1

. DPP-4 9 . 2015 10
2016 .
DPP-4 9 33%
. DPP-4 Januvia/Janumet. 2015 60$
.
. 2012 Luye Pharma Group, Alekm
Laboratories , , 2014
Eurofarma 17 , 2015 Geropharm , ,
, .
1 DPP-4
.
109

: 1 1, 6,900, 1,400

()

2
2015

300

258

2040e

250
200

163

151
150

124

110
100

69
29 35

50

14

23

12

21

10 16

8 15

: IDF Diabetes Atlas, 7th edition (2015),

110

()

400
350

2015

349
320

2040e

300
238

250

180

200
150
100

72
51

50

35 36

22

36

29 27

19 22

17 22

: IDF Diabetes Atlas, 7th edition (2015),

88

Analyst | /

111

2015

2040

Total world population

7.3

Adult population (20-79 years)

4.72

6.16

Child population (0-14 years)

1.92

8.8% (7.2~11.4%)

10.4% (8.5~13.5%)

415

642

(340~536)

(521~829)

Diabetes (20-79 years)

Global prevalence
no of people with diabetes

no of deaths due to diabetes

673

802

2015

2040

20-64

320.5

441.3

65-79

94.2

200.5

Health expenditure due to diabetes (20-79 years)

Total health expenditure, R=2

age distribution of people with diabetes

age range

Type 1 diabetes (0-14 years)

no of children with type 1 diabetes

542

no of newly diagnosed cases each year

86

: IDF Diabetes Atlas, 7th edition (2015),

89

Analyst | /

2016 100 ,
. 1 , 3 .
.
811 .
112

DPP-4

DA-1229 (evogliptin) Suganon

DPP-4 .9
($mm)
DPP-4
Januvia
(Merck)
Janumet
(Merck)

10

11

12

13

14

15

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

9,002

9,192

9,387

9,585

9,787

9,994 10,205 10,420 10,531

10,642

10,754

10,868

10,982

11,098

11,216

11,334

11,454

11,575

4,086

4,004

3,931

3,906

3,881

3,856

3,819

3,746

3,674

3,604

3,535

1,659

1,829

2,071

2,152

2,236

2,324

2,414

2,509

2,509

2,493

2,477

273

273

273

273

273

482

482

973

1,036

1,047

1,057

1,068

1,078

1,089

1,100

1,111

CAGR

2011

2012

2013

2%

6,311

8,290

-2%

3,324

12%

1,363

0.1%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

7%

8%

8%

9%

9%

9%

10%

10%

11%

11%

($mm)

11

14

16

34

35

75

84

89

94

100

106

113

119

127

($mm)

11

14

16

34

35

75

84

89

94

100

106

113

119

127

()

90

120

150

180

371

390

826

924

980

1,039

1,102

1,168

1,239

1,314

1,394

EBIT()

14

18

23

27

56

58

124

139

147

156

165

175

186

197

209

FCF()

11

14

18

22

45

47

99

111

118

125

132

140

149

158

167

1.00

0.94

0.88

0.83

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.53

0.50

0.47

0.44

0.41

0.39

10

13

15

17

32

32

64

67

67

66

66

66

66

65

65

Upfrontfee&Milestone($mm)

PVIF
PV
NPV

711

Continuing
value

100

EBIT

15%

NPV+CV

811

20%

811

WACC

6.5%

1,100 /$

()

7,925

()

10,231

90

Terminalgrowthrate

-15%

Analyst | /

113

: ,

91

Analyst | /

114

12.0%
2.3%

14.3%

(000640.KS)

100%

1.9%

97.7%

LOGIS

50.0%

0.5%

14.3%

23.2%

0.6% (170900.KS)

1.1%

99.0%

92

7.7%

100%

51.0%

45.0%

45.0%

Neon
Global

Analyst | /

(170900.KS)

(:)

2013A
931.7
348.7
149.4
101.5
93.1
583.1
125.1
445.0
13.0
492.4
171.6
59.5
81.6
30.5
320.7
275.1
45.6
439.4
438.8
36.8
278.5
(59.7)
183.2
0.5
439.4
356.7
207.3

2014A
1,081.9
499.7
318.1
91.8
86.7
582.1
106.6
461.1
14.5
593.5
224.0
54.6
127.9
41.5
369.5
321.4
48.2
488.3
488.1
38.5
227.4
41.9
180.3
0.3
488.3
449.3
131.1

2015A
1,063.5
529.6
301.5
128.8
96.6
533.9
102.3
411.5
20.1
509.8
238.3
56.2
144.5
37.6
271.5
228.3
43.1
553.8
553.6
40.2
254.0
100.0
159.4
0.2
553.8
372.8
71.3

2016F
1,103.6
548.3
345.6
109.3
90.7
555.3
106.5
419.7
29.1
509.0
235.8
53.3
144.5
38.0
273.2
228.3
44.9
594.6
594.5
40.2
254.0
140.9
159.4
0.2
594.6
372.8
27.2

2017F
1,160.1
582.1
365.4
116.9
97.0
578.0
110.8
429.5
37.8
514.9
239.9
57.0
144.5
38.4
275.1
228.3
46.7
645.2
645.1
40.2
254.0
191.5
159.4
0.2
645.2
372.8
7.4

2013A
(14.2)
(65.7)
20.4
(4.2)
15.6
5.2
6.3
8.5
(4.4)
(28.3)
(0.4)
9.3
(32.2)
0.7
(3.8)
(9.7)
(0.1)
0.0
0.0
(63.0)
195.3
132.3
49.9
12.2
37.7

2014A
84.7
37.5
24.9
(6.0)
11.5
10.4
5.2
(4.8)
0.8
(28.3)
(4.6)
4.0
(29.6)
0.3
(2.3)
100.5
109.9
(2.2)
2.2
161.2
132.3
293.4
83.6
12.2
71.5

2015A
42.4
48.6
24.0
26.7
(44.3)
(12.4)
(14.9)
3.4
(20.3)
21.0
1.0
19.3
(28.3)
0.0
(3.9)
(70.4)
(83.3)
22.5
5.8
2.7
293.4
296.2
99.2
24.2
75.0

2016F
95.5
46.9
23.9
1.8
22.9
19.5
5.9
(2.9)
0.3
(45.5)
(0.2)
(0.7)
(30.7)
0.0
(10.5)
(6.0)
0.0
(6.0)
6.0
43.9
296.2
340.1
72.6
22.4
50.2

2017F
73.4
56.6
24.9
1.8
(9.9)
(7.6)
(6.3)
3.7
0.4
(47.8)
(0.2)
(0.7)
(32.8)
0.0
(10.5)
(6.0)
0.0
(6.0)
6.0
19.6
340.1
359.7
83.3
57.5
25.8

(:)

()
()
()

Gross Cash flow

Gross Investment
Free Cash Flow

(:)

(%)

(%)
EBITDA
(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

EPS()
(%)
EPS()
(%)

2013A
501.0

236.0
264.9
225.1
(0.0)
39.8

60.2

(22.9)
2.5
11.8
0.0
(13.5)
16.9

82.6
(65.7)

(65.7)

0.0
(8,959)

(8,959)

2014A
578.6
15.5
268.5
310.1
260.8
(0.0)
49.4
24.1
74.3
23.4
(3.6)
3.0
14.2
0.0
7.5
45.7
170.3
8.2
37.5

37.4

0.1
4,977

4,977

2015A
581.0
0.4
279.1
301.9
246.5
0.0
55.4
12.2
79.4
6.8
8.5
2.2
15.4
0.0
21.6
63.9
39.7
15.3
48.6
29.4
48.6
29.8
0.0
6,100
22.6
6,100
22.6

2016F
600.4
3.3
285.0
315.4
263.4
0.0
51.9
(6.2)
75.8
(4.4)
7.4
4.1
13.3
0.0
16.6
59.4
(7.1)
12.5
46.9
(3.5)
46.8
(3.5)
0.0
5,829
(4.4)
5,829
(4.4)

2017F
642.4
7.0
301.3
341.1
277.2
0.0
63.9
23.0
88.7
17.0
7.8
4.3
13.3
0.0
16.8
71.7
20.8
15.1
56.6
20.8
56.6
20.8
0.1
7,039
20.8
7,039
20.8

2013A

2014A

2015A

2016F

2017F

(8,959)
59,697
250

4,977
63,370
750

6,100
68,893
750

5,829
73,979
750

7,039
80,276
750

N/A
1.7
15.6
0.3
14.6

18.4
1.4
11.3
0.8
8.2

24.1
2.1
15.8
0.5
11.8

26.4
2.1
16.7
0.5
17.1

21.9
1.9
14.0
0.5
14.9

7.9
12.0
(13.1)
N/A
N/A

8.5
12.8
6.5
8.1
6.5

9.5
13.7
8.4
9.3
6.9

8.7
12.6
7.8
8.2
6.8

9.9
13.8
8.8
9.1
8.1

47.2
203.1
4.2

26.8
223.1
4.4

12.9
222.3
4.2

4.6
232.6
5.7

1.1
242.7
7.1

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

0.6
6.0
6.4
10.1

0.5
5.3
6.3
10.5

0.6
5.0
6.4
11.0

0.6
5.7
6.8
11.6

()
EPS
BPS
DPS
(,%)
PER
PBR
EV/ EBITDA

PCR
(%)

EBITDA

ROE
ROIC
(,%)
/

()

93

Analyst | /

(128940.KS)

Tel. 368-6170 / jhkwak@eugenefn.com

R&D !

BUY()

BUY 100

(12M, )
(3/17)

BUY 100
. 1 8,500(EV/EBITDA 18.0 ), 7

(: 2016. 3. 17)

6,900 ( 4.5, HM12525 1.2

KOSPI(pt)

). 2015 , , ,

KOSDAQ(pt)

, 8 .
7,000 5,125 2015 ,
2016

1,000,000
674,000

1,988.0
691.5

()

2,500

()

7,033.3

52 /()

860,932 / 153,633

52 Beta

L/O

1.91

()

10,435

(3M,)

115

(3M,)

. ,

(15A, %)

R&D .

(%)

79,785
0.0
10.3

(%)

2016 JP / 2

() 2

41.4

11.0

2, 3, 7 .
10
RAF HM95573 2016 2
. 2015 B-RAF

(%)

1M

3M

6M

12M

11.0

5.1

93.1

295.7

5.5

4.6

92.5

297.8

KOSPI

, C-RAF, N-RAS
. 2016

(12)

2014

2015

2016F

()

R&D
()

240

25%

R&D

200

20%

160

15%

120

10%

80

5%

40
0

0%

2000

2002

94

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

761.3

1,317.5

1,219.9

()

34.5

211.8

178.1

()

36.5

209.6

163.4

()

43.3

162.1

124.2

EPS()

3,410

14,819

10,035

(%)

-26.0

334.6

-32.3

PER()

29.4

49.1

66.9

ROE(%)

9.2

27.0

16.9

PBR()

2.0

11.3

8.8

21.4

30.0

31.2

EV/EBITDA()
:

Analyst | /

/ .
.
/ R&D , ,
, 2004
. /
.
L/O
. R&D
. L/O R&D
.
R&D .

115
30%

R&D

R&D

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

: , ,

95

Analyst | /

2015 , , , , 8
. 7,000 5,125
2015 , 2016 . 2016 JP
, 2 2, 3 7 .
10
.
BUY 100 . 7
EV/EBITDA 18 1 8,469 ,
7 6,914 .
( , GLP-1, ) 4.45, / HM12525 1.17,
HM71224 1.09, HM61713 7,700, 2,060
. ( )

116
() (a)

1,847

L/O EBITDA

103

2016

EV/EBITDA ()

18.0

() (b)

599

520

2016 EBIT (260) * 20.0

79

PBR 1.0

() (c)

27

30%

() (d)

7,691

4,455

(, , ), L/O

HM12525

1,173

/ , L/O

HM71224

1,087

, , L/O

HM61713

770

(), , L/O

HM781-36 (Poziotinib)

206

(), L/O

()

-277

() (f=a+b+c+d-e)

10,442

() (g)

10,433

() (h=f/g)
:

96

1,000,863

Analyst | /

L/O , L/O
Eflapegrastim() 2016 1 FDA 3 , 3
HER-2 Poziotinib() 2 .

. , ,
2015
.

117

()

2014

2015

2016F

2017F

2018F

2019F

761.3

1,317.5

1,219.9

1,592.8

2,340.2

3,194.7

582.0

580.7

619.1

647.9

670.0

691.9

512.5

333.3

663.3

1,384.7

2,208.3

90.7

89.1

94.4

96.3

100.1

103.1

172.8

204.7

198.2

211.5

215.1

224.0

-84.2

-69.5

-25.1

-26.2

-29.7

-32.7

34.5

211.8

178.1

241.4

945.3

1,780.5

11.0

-122.5

37.1

38.9

40.2

41.5

302.8

116.5

177.4

879.7

1,712.6

5.3

0.9

-1.6

-2.1

-2.3

-2.4

25.6

30.5

26.0

27.2

27.6

28.8

5%

16%

15%

15%

40%

56%

2%

-21%

6%

6%

6%

6%

0%

59%

35%

27%

64%

78%

6%

1%

-2%

-2%

-2%

-2%

15%

15%

13%

13%

13%

13%

97

Analyst | /

HM61713 EGFR
.
. , upfront 5000$, 6.8$,
2015 7 2016 2 .
2015 11 upfront 700$,
8,500$. 2016 1 . HM61713 4 5
,
7,700.
118 HM61713
HM61713
()
L/O
2015
NSCLC ($mm)

10

11

12

13

14

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

11,072 12,837 14,025 14,163

14,244

14,509

14,833 15,163 15,501

15,847

16,200

6,804 7,635 8,545 9,374 10,326

yoy

12%

10%

10%

7%

2 2 3 3

($mm)
Upfront fee & Milestone
($mm)

680

50

48

88

102

102

9%

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

10%

20%

25%

32%

35%

35%

35%

35%

35%

30%

50

16%

1,284

2,805

3,541

4,558

5,078

5,191

5,307

5,425

5,546

4,860

205

449

567

729

813

831

849

868

887

778

340

($mm)
()

550

528

968 1,122

1,122

3,740

2,259

4,937

6,232

8,022

8,938

9,137

9,341

9,549

9,762

8,553

EBIT ()

495

475

871 1,010

1,010

3,366

2,033

4,443

5,609

7,220

8,044

8,223

8,407

8,594

8,785

7,698

FCF ()

421

404

741

858

858

2,861

1,728

3,777

4,767

6,137

6,837

6,990

7,146

7,305

7,468

6,543

PVIF

1.00

1.00

0.94

0.88

0.83

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.53

0.50

0.47

0.44

0.41

PV

421

404

695

757

711

2,224

1,262

2,588

3,068

3,708

3,879

3,724

3,574

3,431

3,293

2,710

NPV

36,028

Continuing value

9,269

16%

Terminal growth rate

-5%

NPV + CV

45,297

EBIT

90%

Success rate

24%

11,007

15%

WACC

6.5%

1,100 /$

70%

7,705

()

10,433

()

73,852

98

Analyst | /

HHM71224 . BTK Inhibitor, B

BTK .
.
. 2015
3 , upfront 5,000$, 6.4$,
. HM71224 6.4 ,
1 872 .

119

HM1224

: ,

99

Analyst | /

120

HM71224

HM71224

L/O
2015
($mm)

10

11

12

13

14

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

53,200 53,753 54,312 54,877

55,448

56,025

57,791 58,392

58,999

49,507 50,225 50,953 51,691 52,440

yoy

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2 2 3 3

($mm)
Upfront fee &
Milestone ($mm)

640

50

64

64

96

96

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

5%

10%

12%

12%

12%

12%

12%

12%

12%

12%

50

56,607 57,196

2,688

5,431

6,585

6,654

6,723

6,793

6,864

6,935

7,007

7,080

430

869

1,054

1,065

1,076

1,087

1,098

1,110

1,121

1,133

320

($mm)
()

550

704

704

1,056

1,056

3,520

4,730

9,559 11,590

11,711

11,832

11,955 12,080

12,205 12,332

12,461

EBIT ()

495

634

634

950

950

3,168

4,257

8,603 10,431

10,540

10,649

10,760 10,872

10,985 11,099

11,215

FCF ()

421

539

539

808

808

2,693

3,619

7,313

8,866

8,959

9,052

9,146

9,241

9,337

9,434

9,532

PVIF

1.00

1.00

0.94

0.88

0.83

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.53

0.50

0.47

0.44

0.41

PV

421

539

506

712

669

2,093

2,641

5,012

5,706

5,413

5,136

4,872

4,622

4,385

4,161

3,947

NPV

50,414

Continuing value

13,503

16%

Terminal growth rate

-5%

NPV + CV

63,917

EBIT

90%

Success rate

24%

15,532

15%

WACC

6.5%

10,872

1,100 /$

70%

()

10,433

()

104,210

100

Analyst | /

GLP-1 Agonist (Efpeglenatide, LAPSCA-Exendin-4), .

2015 11 4 , 35
. , .
.
90~95% 2 , 1 5~10% .
6.5%, 8 126mg/Dl
.

121

( )

( )

,
( )

( )

,
( )

( )

122

DPP-4 GLP-1 , GLP-1

: The British Journal of Cardiology,

101

Analyst | /

123

: ADA,

124

()
50

DPP-4
SGLT-2

40

*,
*

30

FDC (DPP-4 + SGLT-2 )

Fast-acting (Basal, daily)

20

Long-acting (Basal, daily)

*small molecule
*

10

GLP-1 agonists(weekly)
FDC (GLP-1 + long-acting )

0
2014

: ,

102

2023

Analyst | /

(Lantus) 2015 , 1
.

L/O .

125

()

2
2015

300

258

2040e

250
200

163

151
150

124

110
100

69
29 35

50

14

23

12

21

10 16

8 15

: IDF,

126

()

400
350

2015

349
320

2040e

300
238

250

180

200
150
100

72
51

50

35 36

22

36

29 27

19 22

17 22

: IDF,

103

Analyst | /

GLP-1 receptor agonist 1 1

, GLP-1 agonist 1 1 . GLP-1
1 1 2 , 1 1 . ,
GLP-1 L/O .
(LAPSCOVERY; Long Acting Protein/Peptide Discovery) unmet
needs .

127

: IDF,

104

Analyst | /

128
(, , )
L/O
($mm)
type 2

2013

2014

2015

10

11

12

13

14

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

7.4% 23,000 24,704 26,534 28,500 30,611 32,879 35,314 37,930 40,740 43,758 47,000 50,482 54,222 58,238 62,553 67,187 72,164 77,510

yoy

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

GLP-1 receptor agonist

3,139

3,619

4,152

4,745

5,402

6,131

6,938

7,832

8,819

9,910 11,114 12,443 13,364 14,354 15,418 16,560 17,787 19,104

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

21%

22%

23%

Long Acting Insulin

24%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

10,961 11,773 12,646 13,582 14,589 15,316 16,071 16,855 17,666 18,504 19,370 20,263 21,182 22,125 23,093 24,803 26,641
44%

44%

44%

43%

42%

41%

40%

39%

38%

Combo market

44%

44%

570

918

1,315

1,766

2,655

3,667

4,813

6,110

8,582 11,387 13,395 15,638 16,797 18,041 19,377

37%

2%

3%

4%

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

17%

21%

36%
23%

35%
25%

34%
25%

34%
25%

34%
25%

L/O
0

10

11

12

13

14

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GLP-1 ($mm)

3,139

3,619

4,152

4,745

5,402

6,131

6,938

7,832

8,819

9,910 11,114 12,443 13,364 14,354 15,418 16,560 17,787 19,104

Victoza

2,072

2,393

3,030

3,232

3,184

3,160

3,112

2,765

2,761

2,706

66%

2,590

2,651

2,580

2,484

2,359

2,203

2,010

1,777

66%

73%

68%

59%

52%

45%

35%

31%

27%

23%

21%

19%

17%

15%

13%

11%

9%

Trulicity

10

569

919

1,232

1,500

1,767

2,073

2,423

2,822

3,276

3,792

4,072

4,374

4,698

5,046

5,420

5,822

0%

14%

19%

23%

24%

25%

26%

27%

28%

29%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

Efpeglanatide

307

694

1,175

1,764

2,973

3,334

3,733

4,009

4,306

4,625

4,968

5,336

5,731

5%

10%

15%

20%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

($mm)
Upfront fee & Milestone ($mm)

133

1,167

133

67

167

($mm)

307

694

350

583

1,764

2,973

3,334

3,733

4,009

4,306

4,625

4,968

5,336

5,731

894

960

1,032

125

211

317

535

600

672

722

775

833

()

1,467

733

1,833

4,457

7,790

2,326

3,492

5,887

6,602

7,391

7,938

8,527

9,158

9,837 10,565 11,348

EBIT ()

1,320

660

1,650

4,011

7,011

2,093

3,143

5,298

5,942

6,652

7,145

7,674

8,242

8,853

9,509 10,213

FCF ()

1,188

594

1,485

3,610

6,310

1,884

2,829

4,768

5,348

5,987

6,430

6,907

7,418

7,968

8,558

9,192

1.00

1.00

0.94

0.88

0.83

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.53

0.50

0.47

0.44

0.41

PV

1,188

594

1,394

3,183

5,224

1,465

2,065

3,268

3,441

3,617

3,648

3,679

3,711

3,742

3,774

3,806

NPV

46,612

Continuing value

13,021

18%

Terminal growth rate

NPV + CV

59,633

EBIT

90%

Success rate

58%

34,826

10%

WACC

6.5%

24,378

1,100

/$

PVIF

70%

()

10,433

()

233,662

55

1,175

105

-5%

Analyst | /

129

()

L/O
2013
Long Acting Insulin ($mm)

2014

2015

10

11

12

13

14

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

10,961 11,773 12,646 13,582 14,589 15,316 16,071 16,855 17,666 18,504 19,370 20,263 21,182 22,125 23,093 24,803 26,641

Lantus

7,591

8,428

7,256

6,482

5,578

4,657

4,059

3,569

3,069

2,510

1,889

1,396

1,258

1,103

931

741

548

322

77%

62%

51%

41%

32%

26%

22%

18%

14%

10%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

Levemir

2,534

2,861

2,860

2,760

2,603

2,447

2,331

1,770

1,149

833

678

649

615

465

416

422

187

23%

24%

23%

20%

18%

16%

15%

11%

7%

5%

4%

3%

3%

2%

2%

2%

1%

Tresiba

117

448

909

1,364

1,854

2,457

2,700

2,158

1,908

1,629

1,318

973

975

974

970

993

1,013

1%

4%

7%

10%

13%

16%

17%

13%

11%

9%

7%

5%

5%

4%

4%

4%

4%

Toujeo (U300)

146

476

822

1,168

1,475

1,669

1,413

1,128

811

655

483

462

439

412

393

368

1%

4%

6%

8%

10%

10%

8%

6%

4%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

1%

LAPS Insulin 115

321

1,685

3,533

5,551

5,811

6,079

6,355

6,638

6,928

7,441

7,992

2%

10%

20%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

Insulin LAI287: NOVO

804

2,023

3,533

5,181

5,424

5,674

5,931

6,195

6,466

6,945

7,459

5%

12%

20%

28%

28%

28%

28%

28%

28%

28%

28%

($mm)

133

1,167

Upfront fee & Milestone ($mm)

321

1,685

3,533

5,551

5,811

6,079

6,355

6,638

6,928

7,441

7,992

636

999

1,046

1,094

1,144

1,195

1,247

1,339

1,439

133

37

197

233
-

58

303

()

1,467

403

2,163

2,567

3,850

4,486

3,337

6,996 10,992 11,506 12,036 12,582 13,143 13,717 14,733 15,825

EBIT ()

1,320

363

1,947

2,310

3,465

4,038

3,003

6,296

9,892 10,355 10,833 11,324 11,828 12,345 13,260 14,242

FCF ()

1,188

327

1,752

2,079

3,119

3,634

2,703

5,666

8,903

PVIF

1.00

1.00

0.94

0.88

0.83

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.53

0.50

0.47

0.44

0.41

PV

1,188

327

1,645

1,833

2,582

2,825

1,973

3,883

5,729

5,631

5,531

5,429

5,325

5,219

5,263

5,308

NPV

58,504

Continuing value

18,158

18%

Terminal growth rate

NPV + CV

76,661

EBIT

90%

Success rate

24%

18,399

10%

WACC

6.5%

12,879

1,100 /$

($mm)

70%

()

10,433

()

123,446

106

350

350

9,320

9,749 10,191 10,645 11,111 11,934 12,818

-5%

Analyst | /

130

(2)

L/O
2013

2014

2015

Combo market ($mm)

10

11

12

13

14

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

570

918

1,315

1,766

2,655

3,667

4,813

6,110

8,582 11,387 13,395 15,638 16,797 18,041 19,377

LAPS Combo

481

1,528

3,004

4,555

6,028

7,350

8,146

8,930

9,786

10%

25%

35%

40%

45%

47%

49%

50%

51%

NOVO Xultophy

513

826

1,170

1,536

2,310

3,153

3,899

3,972

4,291

5,124

5,894

6,724

7,055

7,397

7,751

90%

90%

89%

87%

87%

86%

81%

65%

50%

45%

44%

43%

42%

41%

40%

($mm)
Upfront fee & Milestone ($mm)

133

1,167

481
133

18

98

117

117

233

233

($mm)

1,528

3,004

4,555

6,028

7,350

8,146

8,930

9,786

87

275

541

820

1,085

1,323

1,466

1,607

1,761

350

()

1,467 201.67

1,082

1,283

1,283

2,567

2,567

4,803

3,024

5,947

9,018 11,935 14,553 16,130 17,682 19,376

EBIT ()

1,320

182

974

1,155

1,155

2,310

2,310

4,323

2,722

5,353

8,116 10,741 13,098 14,517 15,914 17,438

FCF ()

1,188

163

876

1,040

1,040

2,079

2,079

3,890

2,450

4,817

7,305

PVIF

1.00

1.00

0.94

0.88

0.83

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.53

0.50

0.47

0.44

0.41

PV

1,188

163

823

916

861

1,616

1,517

2,666

1,576

2,911

4,144

5,150

5,896

6,136

6,316

6,499

NPV

47,193

Continuing value

22,232

18%

Terminal growth rate

NPV + CV

69,424

EBIT

90%

Success rate

15%

10,414

10%

WACC

6.5%

1,100 /$

70%

7,290

()

10,433

()

69,870

9,667 11,788 13,065 14,322 15,694

-5%

107

Analyst | /

HM12525 .
GLP-1 1
.

131

HM12525

: ,

132

: 2015 EASD HM12525 ,

108

Analyst | /

2015 11 1 .
, 1 500 , 8 1,000
. 2016 2 . 6.3
,
1 563 .

133 HM12525
HM12525
L/O
GLP-1,
CAGR CAGR
('15~20) ('21~30)
GLP-1($mm)

Obesity

46%

10

11

12

13

14

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

3,619

4,152

4,745

5,402

6,131

6,938

7,832

8,819

9,910

11,114

12,443

13,364

14,354

15,418

16,560

17,787

19,104

407

594

867

1,266

1,849

2,699

3,941

5,754

8,400

8,820

9,261

9,724

10,210

10,721

11,257

11,820

12,411

46%

46%

46%

46%

46%

46%

46%

46%

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%
7,910

Bydureon

11%

440

594

728

812

882

945

998

1,228

1,510

1,857

2,285

2,810

3,456

4,251

5,229

6,431

Victoza

-2%

2,393

3,030

3,232

3,184

3,160

3,112

2,765

2,740

2,715

2,690

2,666

2,642

2,618

2,594

2,571

2,547

2,524

Trulicity

19%

10

569

919

1,232

1,500

1,579

1,382

1,699

2,090

2,571

3,162

3,889

4,783

5,883

7,236

8,900

10,947

87

2,085

1,702

1,149

383

647

2,008

3,779

6,059

8,971

10%

20%

25%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

2 2 3 3

($mm)
Upfrontfee&Milestone
($mm)

105

810

105

41

101

122

142

1,457

3,662

4,984

6,511

6,927

7,369

7,842

8,345

8,882

9,455

233

586

797

1,042

1,108

1,179

1,255

1,335

1,421

1,513

405

($mm)
()

1,155

451

1,111

1,337

1,557

4,455

2,565

6,445

8,771

11,460

12,191

12,970

13,801

14,687

15,632

16,640

EBIT ()

1,040

406

1,000

1,203

1,401

4,010

2,308

5,801

7,894

10,314

10,972

11,673

12,421

13,219

14,069

14,976

FCF()

884

345

850

1,022

1,191

3,408

1,962

4,931

6,710

8,767

9,326

9,922

10,558

11,236

11,959

12,730

PVIF

1.00

1.00

0.94

0.88

0.83

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.53

0.50

0.47

0.44

0.41

PV

884

345

798

901

986

2,649

1,432

3,379

4,318

5,297

5,291

5,286

5,281

5,277

5,274

5,271

NPV

51,786

Continuingvalue

18,032

16%

Terminalgrowthrate

-5%

NPV+CV

69,818

EBIT

90%

Success rate

24%

16,756

15%

WACC

6.5%

11,729.
50

1,100 /$

70%

()

10,433

()

112,427

109

Analyst | /

HM781-36(Poziotinib) HER pan-HER . EGFR

. 2015 2 ,
. . 2016 3
2 , HER-2 70 .
134 HM781-36 (Poziotinib)
HM781-36 Poziotinib

L/O
0

10

11

12

13

14

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

7,000

7,140

7,354

7,575

7,802

8,036

8,278

8,526

8,782

9,045

9,316

9,596

9,788

9,984 10,183 10,387

Herceptin

30%

32%

34%

36%

38%

39%

39%

39%

39%

39%

39%

39%

39%

39%

39%

39%

2,100

2,271

2,479

2,707

2,955

3,165

3,260

3,358

3,459

3,563

3,670

3,780

3,855

3,932

4,011

4,091

10%

25%

30%

35%

35%

35%

35%

35%

35%

30%

($mm)

6,863

(3/8)
($mm)
Upfront fee & Milestone
($mm)

50

500

50

30

70

75

75

326

840

1,038

1,247

1,284

1,323

1,349

1,376

1,404

1,227

42

109

135

162

167

172

175

179

183

160

250

($mm)
()

550

330

770

825

825

2,750

466

1,201

1,484

1,783

1,837

1,892

1,930

1,968

2,008

1,755

EBIT ()

495

297

693

743

743

2,475

420

1,081

1,336

1,605

1,653

1,703

1,737

1,771

1,807

1,580

FCF ()

421

252

589

631

631

2,104

357

918

1,135

1,364

1,405

1,447

1,476

1,506

1,536

1,343

PVIF

1.00

1.00

0.94

0.88

0.83

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.53

0.50

0.47

0.44

0.41

PV

421

252

553

556

522

1,635

260

629

731

824

797

771

738

707

677

556

NPV

10,211

Continuing value

1,902

13%

Terminal growth rate

-5%

NPV + CV

12,113

EBIT

90%

Success rate

24%

2,944

15%

WACC

6.5%

2,060

1,100

/$

70%

()

10,433

()

19,750

110

Analyst | /

L/O . HM95573
HM10560 . 1
2016 3 . .
unmet needs
.
Norditropin 1 ,
. . PEGylation
2014 12 CTP OPKO MOD-4023 L/I 3
. 5.7 2.95 .
. 2015 ENDO
.

135

Efpeglenatide*
(HM11260)
(LAPS-CA-Exendin-4)

HM12470*
(LAPS-Insulin115)

LAPS-Insulin Combo*
(LAPS-Insulin 115/
efpeglenatide)

HM12525A
(LAPS-GLP/GCG)

HM10560A
(LAPS-hGH)

()

Eflapegrastim
(LAPS-GCSF)

Poziotinib
(HM781-36B)

(, )

HM61713

()

HM71224
(BTK Inhibitor)

KX2-391

L/O (, )(2015.11)

upfront payment 4.0

35.0

L/O (, )(2015.11.6)

upfront 1.05$, 8.1$

2013.4
2015.12.18
2
3

L/O (, ) (2012.1)

2016.3.8 2

L/O ()(2014.8)
L/O (, )(2015.2)

2016
2

L/O (, )(2015.7)
L/O ()(2015.11)

upfront 5000$, 6.8$

upfront 700$, 8500$

L/O (2015.3)

upfront 5000$, 6.4$

2016 3
.
2 /

2016 2

2016 1

2016 2

2016 3

2011 .
1 L/O

1
2016

1
2016

2016 2

Oraxol
(Paclitaxel +
HM30181A)
Oratecan
(Irinotecan +
HM30181A)

L/I, (2011.12)

HM95573

Luminate

2016 2

/ (2015.1)

111

Analyst | /

RAF HM95573. 2016 2

2016 . 2015
B-RAF . , BRAF C-RAF, N-RAS
. 2016
. .

136

HM95573

: 2015 AACR() ,

137

B-RAF N-RAS mutant()

: 2015 AACR() ,

112

Analyst | /

138

() - DCF

(, )

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

7,613

13,175

12,199

15,928

23,402

EBIT

345

2,118

1,781

2,414

9,453

NOPLAT

250

1,286

1,354

1,834

7,184

(+)

254

315

410

485

596

(+)

683

4,148

-3,562

985

2,409

(-)CAPEX

800

FCF
WACC

FCF

1,580

1,216

1,554

2,234

-4,126

4,110

-220

3,137

6.8%

7.3%

7.6%

8.2%

8,379

CV

110,468

Cost of Equity

Enterprise value

118,846

Beta

9.5%
1.0

Non-operating value

1,471

Market Risk Premium

7.0%

Debt

2,722

Risk-free rate (Rf)

2.5%

Cost of Debt

3.0%

5.0%

Net enterprise value

()

117,595
1,128,351

113

Analyst | /

139

36.2%
12.1%
5.4%

53.7%

(008930.KS)

41.4%

(128940.KS)

75.0%

73.7%

63.0%

114

98.6%

100%

100%

Analyst | /

(128940.KS)

(:)

2013A
880.9
451.8
109.7
221.2
105.8
429.1
89.7
259.4
80.0
418.0
233.9
64.3
127.8
41.7
184.1
153.1
31.0
462.9
409.4
20.7
328.3
49.9
10.5
53.5
462.9
280.9
171.2

2014A
1,033.3
537.7
97.9
290.3
133.1
495.6
79.9
327.9
87.9
444.1
182.4
97.8
46.9
37.7
261.7
225.4
36.4
589.2
527.5
24.4
419.0
79.7
4.4
61.8
589.2
272.2
174.3

2015A
1,722.6
1,145.1
182.5
784.6
158.1
577.5
94.6
415.7
67.2
977.8
673.6
224.6
103.2
345.9
304.2
264.4
39.7
744.8
674.9
25.6
417.8
228.1
3.4
69.9
744.8
367.6
185.1

2016F
1,717.3
1,036.1
645.1
291.3
79.6
681.3
98.4
489.3
93.5
848.3
542.5
90.0
103.2
349.3
305.8
264.4
41.3
869.0
799.2
25.6
417.8
352.4
3.4
69.9
869.0
367.6
(277.4)

2017F
1,918.6
1,107.6
621.2
366.0
100.1
811.1
102.4
589.5
119.2
876.6
569.1
113.1
103.2
352.8
307.5
264.4
43.0
1,042.1
972.2
25.6
417.8
525.4
3.4
69.9
1,042.1
367.6
(253.6)

2013A
85.1
50.5
27.1
0.5
(2.4)
(4.5)
11.1
(7.9)
(1.1)
(32.1)
(2.0)
0.6
(26.6)
4.2
(8.3)
(37.5)
(37.2)
0.0
0.0
14.1
55.2
69.3
104.0
32.6
71.4

2014A
(32.4)
43.3
25.4
(8.1)
(93.7)
(67.6)
(27.0)
14.4
(13.5)
(69.2)
(4.4)
14.5
(69.2)
0.7
(10.8)
84.7
(9.1)
94.3
0.0
(16.8)
69.3
52.5
76.7
158.4
(81.7)

2015A
104.2
162.1
50.1
69.0
(114.3)
(492.0)
(24.8)
3.2
399.3
(116.8)
(0.5)
17.1
(121.1)
1.7
(14.1)
94.5
94.9
0.0
0.0
85.9
52.5
138.3
281.1
230.6
50.6

2016F
605.7
124.2
39.3
1.6
440.5
493.3
78.5
(134.5)
3.3
(144.9)
(1.8)
(1.7)
(110.9)
0.0
(28.4)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
460.8
138.3
599.1
165.2
(297.4)
462.6

2017F
153.3
173.0
47.3
1.7
(68.8)
(74.7)
(20.4)
23.1
3.3
(179.0)
(1.9)
(1.8)
(144.7)
0.0
(28.4)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(25.8)
599.1
573.3
222.1
245.9
(23.9)

(:)

()
()
()

Gross Cash flow

Gross Investment
Free Cash Flow

(:)

(%)

(%)
EBITDA
(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

EPS()
(%)
EPS()
(%)

2013A
730.1
8.3
313.7
416.5
354.6
0.0
61.9
28.6
89.0
9.0
(7.1)
3.1
14.8
0.0
4.6
54.8
70.3
4.3
50.5
75.7
43.9
94.1
6.6
4,607
92.8
4,607
92.8

2014A
761.3
4.3
338.8
422.5
388.1
0.0
34.5
(44.3)
59.8
(32.7)
2.0
3.9
12.1
0.0
10.2
36.5
(33.5)
(6.8)
43.3
(14.3)
35.5
(19.2)
7.8
3,410
(26.0)
3,410
(26.0)

2015A
1,317.5
73.1
398.3
919.3
707.5
0.0
211.8
514.8
261.9
337.7
(2.2)
1.4
12.3
0.0
8.7
209.6
474.8
47.5
162.1
274.3
154.4
334.9
7.6
14,819
334.6
14,819
334.6

2016F
1,219.9
(7.4)
479.5
740.3
562.2
0.0
178.1
(15.9)
217.4
(17.0)
(14.7)
6.5
25.2
0.0
4.1
163.4
(22.0)
39.2
124.2
(23.4)
104.7
(32.2)
19.5
10,035
(32.3)
10,035
(32.3)

2017F
1,592.8
30.6
502.8
1,090.0
848.7
0.0
241.4
35.5
288.7
32.8
(13.7)
7.4
25.2
0.0
4.1
227.7
39.3
54.6
173.0
39.3
145.9
39.3
27.2
13,979
39.3
13,979
39.3

2013A

2014A

2015A

2016F

2017F

4,607
39,414
0

3,410
50,611
0

14,819
64,680
0

10,035
76,584
0

13,979
93,166
0

22.0
2.6
14.4
0.0
9.3

29.4
2.0
21.4
0.0
13.6

49.1
11.3
30.0
0.0
27.0

66.9
8.8
31.2
0.0
42.4

48.0
7.2
23.6
0.0
31.5

8.5
12.2
6.9
13.1
10.0

4.5
7.9
5.7
9.2
3.9

16.1
19.9
12.3
27.0
20.4

14.6
17.8
10.2
16.9
18.9

15.2
18.1
10.9
19.5
28.4

37.0
193.2
5.3

29.6
294.9
4.2

24.9
170.0
19.4

n/a
191.0
9.5

n/a
194.6
13.6

0.9
3.4
6.6
12.5

0.8
3.0
6.4
9.4

1.0
2.5
9.0
8.2

0.7
2.3
10.3
7.8

0.9
4.8
17.7
15.7

()
EPS
BPS
DPS
(,%)
PER
PBR
EV/ EBITDA

PCR
(%)

EBITDA

ROE
ROIC
(,%)
/

()

115

Analyst | /

(185750.KS)

Tel. 368-6170 / jhkwak@eugenefn.com

R&D

BUY()

BUY, 162,000

(12M, )
(3/17)

BUY 162,000
. 1 3,990(EV/EBITDA 18.0) 2,830

(: 2016. 3. 17)

KOSPI(pt)

. 2011

KOSDAQ(pt)

10%, 2013 12%, 2015 15% , 2015 30

1 . 2015 3

162,000
131,000

1,988.0
691.5

()

2,500

()

1,232.6

52 /()

186,000 / 60,300

, 6

52 Beta

0.96

2016~17

()

9,409

(3M,)

286

(3M,)

R&D

40,858

(15A, %)

0.6

VDA CKD-516() HDAC inhibitor

(%)

7.5

CKD-581 1 , CETP

(%)

CKD-519 1 .

27.8

11.9

1
CKD-506( ) 2016 7 1

(%)

1M

3M

6M

12M

, CKD-504() .

8.3

65.2

78.2

108.9

DNA

KOSPI

2.7

64.7

77.6

111.0

HDAC HDAC6 First-in-class

, 2 CKD-11101

(12)

2014

2015

2016F

3 . 2016 1 L/O

()

.

:
()

544.1

592.5

776.0

()

53.9

42.7

54.9

()

48.5

15.1

49.3

()

35.2

(6.8)

37.0

EPS()

3,736

-720

3,933

(%)

695.9

PER()

17.5

na

32.8
11.2

2007

ROE(%)

11.2

-2.1

30

2014

PBR()

1.9

2.9

3.5

25

2015

EV/EBITDA()

9.2

15.5

17.6

35

30

1818

20

12

15

16

14

11

1111

10
5

116

98

8
3

67

67

11
8

11

Analyst | /

140
() (a)
EBITDA

1,399
78

2016

EV/EBITDA ()

18.0

() (b)

283

L/O 1.0

CKD-11101 (, )

50

3 , 1

4,497

CKD-581 ( , )

82

1,909 , L/O 65%

CKD-519 ()

99

1, CETP Inhibitor

2,285 , L/O 65%

CKD-516 ()

23

521 , L/O 65%

CKD-504 ()

11

335 , L/O 70%

CKD-506 ( )

18

550 , L/O 70%

() (c)

153

() (d=a+b-c)

1,529

( ) (e)

9,409

() (f=d/e)

162,544

117

Analyst | /

141

R&D
Discovery

(PWS) -

Methionin Aminopeptidase Inhibitor

(HIAO) -

Methionin Aminopeptidase Inhibitor

() -

Methionin Aminopeptidase Inhibitor

CKD-943(, )

Opioid Receptor Kappa Agonist

CKD-516()

Tubulin Polymerization Inhibitor

CKD-531()

Histone Deacetylase Inhibitor

CKD-519()

CETP Inhibitor

CKD-506() -

Histone Deacetylase 6 Inhibitor

CKD-504()

Histone Deacetylase 6 Inhibitor

CKD-11101()

Darbepoetin Biosimilar

CKD-12101()

NEULASTA Biosimilar

CKD-701()

LUCENTIS Biosimilar

CKD-337()

Atorvastatin + Fenofibrate

CKD-391()

Atorvastatin + Ezetimibe

CKD-906()

Rosuvastatin + Ezetimibe

CKD-330()

Candesartan + Amlodipine

CKD-342()

Mometasone + Levocabastine

CKD-397()

Tamsulosin + Tadarafil

CKD-904()

Tamsulosin SR

CKD-905()

Pregabalin SR

CKD-395( 2 )

Robeglitazone + Metformin

CKD-841()

Liquid Crystal - Leuprolide

CKD-390()

Tenofovir Aspartate

CKD-497()

(, )

142

R&D

()

100

15%

R&D

90

14%

12%

80
70
8%

60

9%

9%

9%

10%

11%

12%
10%

8%

50
40

8%
5%
6%

30

4%

20

2%

10
0

0%
2005

118

16%

14%

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Analyst | /

143
()

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

2015

2016

2017

2018

147.3

140.0

149.7

155.5

186.0

181.5

196.9

211.6

592.5

776.0

895.8

934.3

12.3

8.1

11.8

10.6

13.4

12.5

14.2

14.9

42.7

54.9

76.0

88.4

8.3%

5.8%

7.9%

6.8%

7.2%

6.9%

7.2%

7.0%

7.2%

7.1%

8.5%

9.5%

144

()

yoy

2014

2015

2016

2017

2015

2016

2017

2%

2%

()

38.2

39.9

40.9

41.6

5%

36.3

36.7

36.2

36.9

1%

-1%

2%

25.3

25.8

22.7

24.6

2%

-12%

8%

()

19.0

21.9

25.6

29.9

15%

17%

17%

(ARB+CCB)

16.4

19.8

24.1

29.1

21%

21%

21%

()

18.3

19.0

20.0

21.3

4%

5%

6%

15.9

18.2

21.2

24.2

14%

17%

14%

15.2

16.4

17.6

19.1

8%

7%

8%

9.5

16.1

19.3

22.7

70%

20%

18%

10

(ARB)

16.2

15.2

13.8

12.6

-7%

-9%

-8%

11

(CCB)

13.9

12.8

11.6

10.5

-8%

-10%

-9%

12

7.4

10.5

15.1

20.1

43%

44%

33%

13

10.7

10.2

10.1

10.0

-4%

-1%

0%

14

6.0

9.5

15.2

20.3

59%

60%

34%

15

8.2

9.5

10.1

10.5

16%

6%

5%

16

7.3

8.8

10.4

11.6

21%

18%

12%

17

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.2

-7%

-7%

-5%

18

(CCB)

9.0

8.6

7.7

6.9

-5%

-10%

-11%

19

6.3

8.0

9.1

10.3

28%

14%

13%

20

()

2.8

4.0

4.5

5.2

43%

15%

15%

21

DPP4

52.6

62.6

19%

22

45.1

53.6

19%

259.8

279.2

340.8

409.9

544.1

592.5

776.0

895.8

7%

: ,
:

119

22%

20%

Analyst | /

CKD-581 HDAC inhibitor 1 .

Farydak 2015 9 FDA . Farydak
HDAC . .
2015 11 (darzalex), BMS (empliciti) FDA
. ,
(NK cell)
SLAMF7 .
Farydak Farydak
. 1 ,
CKD-581 1 9,700 .
820.
145 CKD-581
CKD-581 , B
($mm)

10

11

12

13

14

15

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

13,372

15,092

17,034

18,600

19,626

20,347

21,096

21,871

22,675

23,509

24,373

25,269

(8)

18%

8,239

9,300 10,496 11,847

Revlimid, Celgene
(2027)

16%

5,373

5,797

6,255

6,748

7,281

7,856

8,476

9,145

9,867

10,646

11,486

12,393

13,371

14,426

15,565

16,793

8%

1,387

1,367

1,297

1,206

988

878

780

693

616

548

487

432

384

342

303

270

23

69

120

189

241

280

292

304

316

329

343

357

372

388

404

420

231

573

905

1,196

1,327

1,382

1,439

1,499

1,561

1,626

1,693

1,764

1,837

1,913

1,992

234

727

1,370

1,806

2,738

2,852

2,970

3,093

3,221

3,355

3,494

3,639

3,790

3,947

4,110

1,456

1,601

1,525

1,429

1,859

2,013

3,253

4,049

4,235

4,042

3,799

3,502

3,146

2,727

2,242

1,683

Velcade, J&J (2015)

Farydak, panobinostat,

Empliciti(elotuzumab),
BMS&Abbvie
darzalex(daratumumab),
&Genmab,

FDA

FDA

1%

2%

3%

5%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

($mm)

151

341

558

981

1,221

1,266

1,312

1,361

1,411

1,462

1,516

1,660

3,748

6,138

10,794

13,429

13,923

14,435

14,966

15,516

16,086

16,678

EBIT

498

1,124

1,841

3,238

4,029

4,177

4,330

4,490

4,655

4,826

5,003

FCF

423

956

1,565

2,753

3,424

3,550

3,681

3,816

3,957

4,102

4,253

($mm)
()

PVIF
PV
NPV

1.00

0.94

0.88

0.83

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.53

0.50

0.47

0.44

0.41

0.39

309

655

1,007

1,663

1,943

1,891

1,841

1,792

1,745

1,699

1,654

16,199

Continuing value

3,507

EBIT

30%

Terminal growth rate

-10%

NPV + CV

19,706

15%

Success rate

10%

2,049

WACC

6.5%

L/O

60%

1,100 /$

820

()

9,409

()

8,713

120

Analyst | /

CKD-519 CETP . (hyperlipidemia)

, . (LDL:
Low density lipoprotein) , Statin
HMG-CoA reductase HMG-CoA reductase
. (Lipitor) (Crestor) .
60% , PCSK9 CETP
.
HDL 5~15% , LDL 18~55% , PCSK9
LDL 40~70% LDL . HDL
. CETP HDL 100~140% , LDL
30~40% .
PCSK9 . Evaluatepharma 2020 R&D
20 PCSK9 2 . Repatha Praluent .

146

HDL

LDL

100~140%

15~35%
5~15%

10~20%

5~20%

5~25%
30~40%

18~55%
40~70%

Statin

Fibrate

Niacin

CETP

PCSK9

: ,

121

Analyst | /

CETP CETP(Cholesteryl Ester Transfer Protein)

3 , 1 . 2005 CETP 2006
, 2012 JT(Japan tobacco) , 2015 10 Eli lilly
. HDL LDL
. 3 CETP
2016~17 1 .
2 4 .
993 .
147 CKD-519
CKD-519 , CETP
($mm)

10

11

12

13

14

15

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

12,281 14,492

17,100

20,178

23,810

28,096

29,360

30,681

32,062

33,505

35,013

36,588

38,235

39,955

1) Statin

7,777

7,566

3,879

2,157

1,980

1,962

1,944

1,927

1,910

1,893

1,877

1,861

1,845

1,830

1,815

1,800

331

324

317

311

304

298

292

286

280

274

268

263

257

252

247

242

6,343

6,138

2,459

743

573

561

549

538

527

516

505

495

485

475

465

455

848

1,696

3,392

5,219

8,029

8,430

8,852

9,295

9,759

10,247

10,760

11,298

11,862

12,456

(2016)
2) PCSK9 Inhibitor
Repatha,

2,445

3) CETP Inhibitor

722

1,445

2,890

4,446

4,668

4,902

5,147

5,404

5,674

5,958

6,256

6,569

6,897

7,554

9,916

10,283

10,107

9,391

13,070

13,697

14,347

15,022

15,723

16,450

17,205

17,989

18,803

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

($mm)

144

445

700

980

1,287

1,351

1,419

1,490

1,564

1,642

1,724

1,589

4,891

7,703

10,784

14,154

14,861

15,604

16,385

17,204

18,064

18,967

EBIT

477

1,467

2,311

3,235

4,246

4,458

4,681

4,915

5,161

5,419

5,690

FCF

405

1,247

1,964

2,750

3,609

3,790

3,979

4,178

4,387

4,606

4,837

Upfront fee & Milestone

($mm)
($mm)
()

PVIF
PV
NPV

1.00

0.94

0.88

0.83

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.53

0.50

0.47

0.44

0.41

0.39

296

855

1,264

1,662

2,048

2,019

1,990

1,962

1,935

1,907

1,881

17,818

Continuing value

6,041

EBIT

30%

Terminal growth rate

-5%

NPV + CV

23,859

15%

Success rate

10%

2,481

WACC

6.5%

L/O

60%

1,100 /$

993

()

9,409

()

10,549

122

Analyst | /

CKD-516 VDA(Vascular Disrupting Agent) .

, . 1 ,
2 .

148 CKD-516
CKD-516 .
Tubulin polymerization inhibitor
($mm)
cancer
($)
($mm)

10

11

12

13

14

15

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

88,387 98,640 110,082 122,852 137,103 153,100 161,980 171,375 181,314

191,831 202,957 214,728 227,182 240,359 254,300 269,049

100,000
28,912

29,059

29,208

29,357

29,506

29,657

29,808

29,960

30,113

30,266

0.1%

0.5%

0.7%

1.0%

1.1%

1.1%

1.1%

1.1%

1.1%

1.1%

1.1%

29

145

203

292

323

325

326

328

330

331

333

316

1,590

2,238

3,213

3,552

3,570

3,588

3,607

3,625

3,644

3,662

EBIT

95

477

671

964

1,066

1,071

1,077

1,082

1,088

1,093

1,099

FCF

81

405

571

819

906

910

915

920

924

929

934

21,475 22,768

24,138

25,591

27,132

28,765

2
1 2H16

($mm)
Upfront fee & Milestone
($mm)
($mm)
()

PVIF
PV

1.00

0.94

0.88

0.83

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.53

0.50

0.47

0.44

0.41

0.39

59

278

367

495

514

485

458

432

408

385

363

NPV

4,243

Continuing value

1,166

EBIT

30%

Terminal growth rate

-5%

NPV + CV

5,409

15%

Success rate

10%

563

WACC

6.5%

L/O

60%

225

1,100 /$

()

9,409

()

2,392

123

Analyst | /

CKD-506 HDAC6 First-in-class ,

. HDAC DNA
HDAC6 . CKD-506 T
CTLA-4 TNF-a .
.
2016 7 1 . CKD-504 HDAC6 ,
.
149 CKD-506
CKD-506, .
HDAC-6 . . MTX() TNF-a
0

10

11

12

13

14

15

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

49,532 50,275 51,029 51,795

52,571

53,200

53,998

54,808

55,630

56,465

57,312

58,171

59,044

59,929

60,828

61,741

0.10%

0.30%

0.60%

1.00%

1.50%

1.80%

1.80%

1.80%

1.80%

55

167

339

573

873

1,063

1,079

1,095

1,111

()

603

1,836

3,727

6,304

9,598

11,691

11,866

12,044

12,225

EBIT

181

551

1,118

1,891

2,879

3,507

3,560

3,613

3,667

FCF

154

468

950

1,608

2,448

2,981

3,026

3,071

3,117

($mm)

($mm)

Upfront fee & Milestone

($mm)
($mm)

PVIF
PV

1.00

0.94

0.88

0.83

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.53

0.50

0.47

0.44

0.41

0.39

99

283

539

856

1,224

1,400

1,334

1,272

1,212

NPV

8,220

Continuing value

3,893

EBIT

30%

Terminal growth rate

15%

Success rate
L/O

NPV + CV

12,113

606

WACC

6.5%

182

1,100 /$

()

9,409

()

1,931

124

-5%
5%
70%

Analyst | /

150 CKD-504
CKD-504,
($mm)

10

11

12

13

14

15

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

12,281 14,492

17,100

20,178

23,810

28,096

29,360

30,681

32,062

33,505

35,013

36,588

38,235

39,955

57,648 57,984 58,322 58,662

59,004

59,347

59,693

60,041

60,391

60,743

61,097

61,453

61,811

62,171

62,534

62,898

6,039

6,074

6,110

6,145

6,181

6,217

6,253

6,290

no of case

Xenazine (Teva) Auspex35(2015)

max

5,765

5,798

5,832

5,866

5,900

5,935

5,969

6,004

1%

3%

5%

7%

8%

9%

10%

10%

10%

($mm)

60

181

304

428

492

556

622

625

629

()

660

1,993

3,341

4,704

5,408

6,119

6,839

6,879

6,919

EBIT

198

598

1,002

1,411

1,622

1,836

2,052

2,064

2,076

FCF

168

508

852

1,200

1,379

1,560

1,744

1,754

1,764

Upfront fee & Milestone

($mm)
($mm)

PVIF
PV

1.00

0.94

0.88

0.83

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.53

0.50

0.47

0.44

0.41

0.39

108

307

483

639

690

733

769

726

686

NPV

5,142

Continuing value

2,203

EBIT

30%

Terminal growth rate

NPV + CV

7,345

15%

Success rate

367

WACC

6.5%

L/O

110

1,100 /$

()

9,409

()

1,171

-5%
5%
70%

125

Analyst | /

151 CKD-11101
CKD-11101
. L/O (2016.1.5)
0

10

11

12

13

14

15

($mm)

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

6,069

5,982

5,896

5,811

5,727

5,645

5,564

5,484

5,405

5,327

5,250

5,175

5,100

5,027

4,954

4,883

Aranesp (Amgen)

2,422

2,391

2,176

1,980

1,802

1,640

1,492

1,358

1,236

1,124

1,023

931

847

771

702

639

Epogen (Amgen)

3,235

3,179

2,893

2,633

2,396

2,180

1,984

1,805

1,643

1,495

1,360

1,238

1,127

1,025

933

849

3.
2015.4

600

123

859

859

859

859

859

1,963

2,002

2,043

2,083

2,125

2,168

2,211

5%

5%

15%

25%

26%

27%

12%

12%

12%

12%

12%

12%

12%

43

129

215

223

232

236

240

245

250

255

260

265

()

67

472

1,417

2,362

2,456

2,551

2,591

2,643

2,696

2,750

2,805

2,861

2,918

EBIT

20

142

425

709

737

765

777

793

809

825

842

858

876

FCF

17

120

361

602

626

650

661

674

688

701

715

730

744

Upfront fee & Milestone

PVIF
PV
NPV

1.00

0.94

0.88

0.83

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.53

0.50

0.47

0.44

0.41

0.39

14

94

264

413

403

393

375

359

344

329

315

302

289

3,895

Continuing value

929

EBIT

30%

Terminal growth rate

-5%

Success rate

10%

NPV + CV

4,824

15%

502

WACC

6.5%

1,100 /$

()

9,409

()

5,332

126

Analyst | /

152

27.0%
4.0%

31.0%

(001630.KS)

42.4%

10.0%

56.3%
9.1%

CKD

90.6%

51.0%

3.7%

(063160.KS)

20.2%

(185750.KS)

33.4%

(214390.KS)

13.4%

100%

127

Analyst | /

(185750.KS)

(:)

2013A
255.3
13.2
3.1
160.4
71.2
7.5
266.6
34.1
214.7
17.8
522.0
130.9
48.3
63.6
18.9
93.0
61.0
32.0
223.8
23.5
271.4
-0.4
0.1
3.5
298.1
108.4

2014A
298.4
48.8
2.6
161.5
75.2
10.4
275.3
44.0
215.2
16.1
573.8
161.3
52.5
80.7
28.1
81.0
44.0
37.0
242.3
23.5
271.4
-0.4
2.4
34.6
331.4
73.3

2015A
288.4
12.9
0.0
175.8
90.0
9.7
287.9
44.1
228.0
15.8
576.3
151.4
63.9
54.0
33.6
110.3
70.6
39.7
261.7
23.5
271.4
-0.4
0.5
19.5
314.6
111.7

2016F
334.2
-28.2
0.0
231.1
121.6
9.8
296.9
45.8
234.7
16.4
631.2
175.6
87.7
54.0
33.9
111.5
70.6
40.9
287.1
23.5
271.4
-0.4
0.5
49.0
344.0
152.8

2017F
375.0
-22.3
0.0
253.8
133.6
9.9
309.3
47.7
244.7
16.9
684.3
184.6
96.3
54.0
34.3
112.8
70.6
42.2
297.4
23.5
271.4
-0.4
0.5
91.9
386.9
146.9

2013A
10.0
4.4
6.0
2.9
0.4
0.1
0.4
-7.1
4.0
1.3
2.3
-2.4
-1.7
-0.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
7.2
6.0
13.2

2014A
64.6
35.2
49.7
18.2
2.3
0.3
-6.0
1.4
-5.9
2.8
-4.3
-25.8
-18.6
-2.6
-3.0
-1.6
-2.8
0.0
-2.8
2.8
0.0
35.6
13.2
48.8

2015A
7.3
-6.8
66.0
20.1
2.6
43.3
-26.7
-13.5
-19.5
10.4
-4.1
-35.9
-32.2
-3.1
2.6
-3.2
-7.5
0.0
-7.5
7.5
0.0
-35.9
48.8
12.9

2016F
-2.1
37.0
23.7
20.1
2.5
1.2
-62.8
-55.2
-31.6
23.8
0.2
-31.5
-26.7
-3.0
-0.5
-1.3
-7.5
0.0
-7.5
7.5
0.0
-41.1
12.9
-28.2

2017F
49.2
50.4
24.6
20.8
2.5
1.3
-25.9
-22.8
-12.0
8.6
0.2
-35.7
-30.8
-3.0
-0.6
-1.3
-7.5
0.0
-7.5
7.5
0.0
6.0
-28.2
-22.3

(:)

()
()
()
,

()
()
()

()
()

(:)

()
EBITDA

EBITDA(%)
(%)
(%)
ROA(%)
ROE(%)
ROE*(%)

2013A
86.3
40.1
46.2
38.7
7.5
-1.5
0.1
1.0
-0.3
0.0
0.0
-2.3
6.0
1.6
4.4
0.0
4.4
4.6
10.8
53.6
12.5
8.7
7.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

2014A
544.1
263.8
280.3
226.4
53.9
-5.4
1.0
5.4
-0.4
0.0
0.1
-11.4
48.5
13.3
35.2
0.0
35.2
37.5
74.5
51.5
13.7
9.9
8.9
6.4
11.2
11.9

2015A
592.5
296.3
296.2
253.5
42.7
-27.6
0.7
4.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
-32.8
15.1
21.9
-6.8
0.0
-6.8
-6.3
65.4
50.0
11.0
7.2
2.6
-1.2
-2.1
-1.9

2016F
776.0
384.8
391.2
336.3
54.9
-5.6
2.0
3.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
-11.5
49.3
12.3
37.0
0.0
37.0
37.5
77.4
50.4
10.0
7.1
6.4
6.1
11.2
11.4

2017F
895.8
431.1
464.7
388.7
76.0
-8.8
2.3
3.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
-15.1
67.2
16.8
50.4
0.0
50.4
50.9
99.4
51.9
11.1
8.5
7.5
7.7
13.8
13.9

2013A

2014A

2015A

2016F

2017F

145.3
140.7
2.2
0.4
69.3

17.5
16.4
1.9
1.2
9.2

0.0
0.0
2.9
0.8
15.5

32.8
32.4
3.5
0.6
17.6

24.1
23.8
3.1
0.6
13.7

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

530.4
615.4
707.0
722.2
695.9

8.9
-20.8
-68.8

31.0
28.6
226.0

15.4
38.4
36.2
35.8
36.2

51.3
75.1
8.5
36.3

54.1
73.1
12.3
22.1

52.5
83.2
11.6
35.5

52.5
83.5
28.2
44.4

49.2
76.9
47.9
38.0

469
485
31,685
1,150
1,112
300

3,736
3,987
35,226
7,916
9,018
800

-720
n/a
33,432
6,949
6,290
800

3,933
3,987
36,565
8,231
6,456
800

5,359
5,413
41,124
10,562
7,978
800

128

PER()
PER()
PBR()
(%)
EV/ EBITDA()
(%,YOY)

EPS
(,%)

/
()
EPS
EPS
BPS
EBITDA/Share
CFPS
DPS

Analyst | /

SK(006120.KS)

Tel. 368-6170 / jhkwak@eugenefn.com

BUY()

BUY, 10

(12M, )
(3/17)

SK BUY 10
. Green chemical EV/EBITDA 8.0, Life science

(: 2016. 3. 17)

14.4 ,

KOSPI(pt)

. 50%:50%

KOSDAQ(pt)

. 2016 1 .
,

100,000
82,100

1,988.0
691.5

()

5,000

()

1,995.3

52 /()

92,057 / 55,624

52 Beta

1.85

()

24,303

(3M,)

198

(3M,)

15,522

15 .

(15A, %)

0.4

L.S , PETG, PPS G.C

(%)

9.1

. 2015

(%)

. 2016 4 , , 2017

11

17.0

13.4

, ,

(%)

KOSPI

1M

3M

6M

12M

10.3

19.3

15.3

45.3

4.8

18.8

14.7

47.4

SK 2015 . 1) LNG
LPG , 2) PDH SK
. 2016 1,200

(12)
()

2014

2015

2016F

7,283.6

5,269.2

5,664.9

2014 .

()

149.6

114.3

146.8

PDH PIC 25%

()

34.3

116.4

101.0

. SK PETG

()

14.0

94.4

76.8

2015

EPS()

(1,173)

2,314

3,119

(%)

34.8

PER()

n/a

30.8

26.0

ROE(%)

1.1

6.9

5.0

PBR()

1.2

1.3

1.4

19.1

25.7

20.5

EV/EBITDA()
:

129

Analyst | /

153
() (a)

11,358
5,939

EBITDA

742

2016

EV/EBITDA

8.0

5,419

EBITDA

376

2016

EV/EBITDA

14.4

7 20%

() (b)

13,010

SK

4,782

2016 * 10, 45.5%

8,228

SK

() (c)

15,209

11,857

3,352

() (d)

18,766

() (e=a+b+c-d)

20,811

() (f)

20,843

() (g=e/f)

99,848

130

SK

50:50
Influenza 3,4 , 13, , ,

SK

Analyst | /

154

()

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

2014

2015

2016

2017

1,187.0

1,238.2

1,439.7

1,404.2

1,420.1

1,424.4

1,459.3

1,361.0

7,283.6

5,269.1

5,664.9

7,620.0

244.3

236.8

306.3

235.1

258.6

260.9

295.4

265.9

1,232.9

1,022.5

1,080.8

1,254.6

G.C

174.8

174.4

203.1

153.0

175.2

179.4

184.3

167.1

847.4

705.3

706.0

808.5

BD

51.7

43.6

67.3

37.4

51.6

55.7

60.7

52.0

247.1

200.0

220.0

226.6

PET

20.9

21.8

25.5

17.3

19.4

19.4

19.4

17.2

120.3

85.4

75.4

100.9

PETG

50.7

58.4

60.1

47.9

53.8

53.8

53.8

47.6

232.1

217.1

209.1

279.5

L.S

68.8

61.7

102.4

67.1

68.2

66.3

95.9

84.5

385.2

300.0

315.0

362.3

914.2

963.7

1,088.3

1,112.9

1,124.7

1,124.7

1,124.7

1,057.4

5,943.5

4,079.0

4,431.5

6,212.3

5.2

20.8

50.0

36.0

37.1

36.2

49.5

23.9

149.6

112.0

146.8

190.2

-3.2

-6.6

25.2

-0.6

11.6

10.2

20.4

5.7

35.6

14.8

47.9

60.3

G.C

6.7

0.1

12.7

1.5

11.6

11.9

10.8

5.6

31.6

21.0

39.9

43.4

L.S

-9.3

-6.5

12.2

-2.0

0.1

-1.4

9.7

0.2

2.6

-5.6

8.6

16.6

8.5

26.1

22.5

36.5

24.6

24.9

27.9

17.4

120.3

93.5

94.8

125.9

0.4%

1.7%

3.5%

2.6%

2.6%

2.5%

3.4%

1.8%

2.1%

2.1%

2.6%

2.5%

-1.3%

-2.8%

8.2%

-0.3%

4.5%

3.9%

6.9%

2.1%

2.9%

1.4%

4.4%

4.8%

G.C

3.8%

0.1%

6.3%

1.0%

6.6%

6.6%

5.9%

3.3%

3.7%

3.0%

5.7%

5.4%

L.S

-13.5%

-10.6%

11.9%

-3.0%

0.1%

-2.2%

10.1%

0.2%

0.7%

-1.9%

2.7%

4.6%

0.9%

2.7%

2.1%

3.3%

2.2%

2.2%

2.5%

1.6%

2.0%

2.3%

2.1%

2.0%

155
2012
()

2013

2014

2015

2016

11

13

29%

29%

32%

39%

46%

: ,

131

Analyst | /

156
Influenza 3

10

11

12

13

14

15

()

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

1,200

1,212

1,200

1,152

1,094

1,040

988

938

891

847

804

764

726

690

655

622

1%

-1%

-4%

-5%

-5%

-5%

-5%

-5%

-5%

-5%

-5%

-5%

-5%

-5%

-5%

yoy

34%

30%

20%

15%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

30%

30%

408

364

240

173

109

104

99

94

89

85

80

76

73

69

197

187

EBIT

41

36

24

17

11

10

10

20

19

FCF

31

28

18

13

15

14

PVIF

1.00

0.95

0.89

0.84

0.80

0.75

0.71

0.67

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.54

0.51

0.48

0.45

0.43

PV

31

26

16

11

NPV

109

Continuing value

23

NPV + CV

132

132

Influenza 4

EBIT

10%

WACC

5.8%

24%

Terminal growth rate

-5%

10

11

12

13

14

15

()

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

1,200

1,272

1,412

1,567

1,708

1,845

1,956

2,073

2,197

2,329

2,469

2,617

2,774

2,941

3,117

3,304

6%

11%

11%

9%

8%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

10%

25%

30%

35%

35%

35%

35%

35%

35%

35%

35%

35%

35%

30%

30%

yoy

127

353

470

598

646

684

726

769

815

864

916

971

1,029

935

991

EBIT

22

60

80

102

110

116

123

131

139

147

156

165

175

159

169

FCF

16

46

61

77

83

88

94

99

105

112

118

125

133

121

128

PVIF

1.00

0.95

0.89

0.84

0.80

0.75

0.71

0.67

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.54

0.51

0.48

0.45

0.43

16

41

51

62

63

63

63

63

63

64

64

64

64

55

55

PV
NPV
Continuing value

850
208

EBIT

17%

WACC

5.8%

24%

Terminal growth rate

-5%

NPV + CV

1,057

1,057

13
()

0
2015

1
2016

2
2017

3
2018

4
2019

5
2020

6
2021

7
2022

8
2023

9
2024

10
2025

11
2026

12
2027

13
2028

14
2029

15
2030

1,200

1,272

1,412

1,567

1,661

1,761

1,867

1,979

2,097

2,223

2,357

2,498

2,648

2,807

2,975

3,154

6%

11%

11%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

10%

20%

35%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

30%

30%

141

313

581

704

747

791

839

889

943

999

1,059

1,123

893

946

21

47

87

106

112

119

126

133

141

150

159

168

134

142

yoy

EBIT
FCF

16

36

66

80

85

90

96

101

107

114

121

128

102

108

PVIF

1.00

0.95

0.89

0.84

0.80

0.75

0.71

0.67

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.54

0.51

0.48

0.45

0.43

14

30

53

61

61

61

61

61

61

61

61

61

46

46

PV
NPV

739

Continuing value

175

EBIT

15%

WACC

5.8%

NPV + CV

914

24%

Terminal growth rate

-5%

914

132

Analyst | /

157

2
0

10

11

12

13

14

15

()

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

1,000

1,060

1,177

1,306

1,424

1,552

1,691

1,844

2,009

2,190

2,387

2,602

2,837

3,092

3,370

3,673

6%

11%

11%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

10%

20%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

118

261

427

466

507

553

603

657

716

781

851

928

1,011

1,102

18

39

64

70

76

83

90

99

107

117

128

139

152

165

yoy

EBIT
FCF

13

30

49

53

58

63

69

75

82

89

97

106

115

126

PVIF

1.00

0.95

0.89

0.84

0.80

0.75

0.71

0.67

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.54

0.51

0.48

0.45

0.43

12

25

39

40

41

42

44

45

46

48

49

51

52

54

PV
NPV

589

Continuing value

204

EBIT

15%

WACC

5.8%

NPV + CV

793

24%

Terminal growth rate

-5%

793

10

11

12

13

14

15

()

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

1,200

1,272

1,412

1,567

1,708

1,862

2,030

2,212

2,411

2,628

2,865

3,123

3,404

3,710

4,044

4,408

6%

11%

11%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

10%

25%

35%

35%

35%

35%

35%

35%

35%

35%

35%

30%

30%

yoy

157

427

652

710

774

844

920

1,003

1,093

1,191

1,299

1,213

1,322

EBIT

24

64

98

107

116

127

138

150

164

179

195

182

198

FCF

18

49

74

81

88

96

105

114

125

136

148

138

151

PVIF

1.00

0.95

0.89

0.84

0.80

0.75

0.71

0.67

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.54

0.51

0.48

0.45

0.43

15

39

56

58

59

61

63

65

67

69

71

63

65

PV
NPV

751

Continuing value

244

EBIT

15%

WACC

5.8%

NPV + CV

996

24%

Terminal growth rate

-5%

996

()

0
2015

1
2016

400

424
6%

yoy

2
2017

3
2018

4
2019

5
2020

6
2021

7
2022

8
2023

9
2024

10
2025

11
2026

12
2027

13
2028

14
2029

15
2030

471

522

569

621

677

737

804

876

955

1,041

1,135

1,237

1,348

1,469

11%

11%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

30%

30%

104

114

124

135

147

161

175

191

208

227

247

404

441

EBIT

16

17

19

20

22

24

26

29

31

34

37

61

66

FCF

12

13

14

15

17

18

20

22

24

26

28

46

50

PVIF

1.00

0.95

0.89

0.84

0.80

0.75

0.71

0.67

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.54

0.51

0.48

0.45

0.43

10

10

11

11

11

12

12

12

13

13

14

21

22

PV
NPV
Continuing value

171
81

NPV + CV

253

253

EBIT

15%

WACC

5.8%

24%

Terminal growth rate

-5%

133

Analyst | /

158

10

11

12

13

14

15

2009

($mm)

4,030 4,698 4,722 5,005 5,356 5,731 6,361 7,061 7,837 8,699 9,482 10,336 10,853 11,395 11,965 12,563 13,191 13,851 14,544 15,271 16,034

Prevnar 13 (Pfizer+)

8%

2012 2013

($mm)

yoy

2011

1%

6%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

7%

7%

11%

11%

11%

11%

18%

2%

0%

14%

7%

11%

11%

11%

11%

, 2016
1

Upfront fee & Milestone

($mm)

9%

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

2,669 3,706 3,781 3,763 4,297 4,598 5,104 5,665 6,288 6,980 6,980 6,631 6,034 5,491 4,997 4,547 4,138 3,765 3,427 3,255 3,092

yoy

($mm)

9%

50

($mm)

0%

-5%

-9%

-9%

-9%

-9%

-9%

-9%

-9%

-5%

-5%

5%

15%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

474 1,550 3,256 3,419 3,589 3,769 3,957 4,155 4,363 4,581 4,810
25

25

25

25

()

275

275

0 5,215 17,054 35,814 37,604 39,484 41,459 43,532 45,708 47,994 50,393 52,913

EBIT ()

23

23

0 1,565 5,116 10,744 11,281 11,845 12,438 13,059 13,712 14,398 15,118 15,874

18

0 1,252 4,093 8,595 9,025 9,476 9,950 10,448 10,970 11,518 12,094 12,699

1.00

0.95

0.89

0.84

0.80

17

FCF ()
PVIF
PV

474 1,550 3,256 3,419 3,589 3,769 3,957 4,155 4,363 4,581 4,810

0.75

0.71

0.67

0.64

0.60

0.57

0.54

0.51

54,462

Continuing value

20,583

EBIT

30%

Terminal growth rate

-5%

NPV + CV

75,045

20%

Success rate

32%

37,522

WACC

5.8%

11,857

1,100

50% 50%

134

0.45

0.43

944 2,918 5,792 5,749 5,705 5,662 5,619 5,577 5,535 5,493 5,451

NPV

SK

0.48

Analyst | /

159

SK

17.0%
1.0%
13.3%

18.0%

SK
(006120.KS)

28.2%

SK
(003340.KS)

100%

57.4%

SK
(018670.KS)

SK

100%

SK

51.0%

31.0%

SK D&D
(210980.KS)

65.0%

SK
Advanced

135

100%

SK Gas
Trading

Analyst | /

SK(006120.KS)

(:)

2013A
4,860.3
2,270.8
574.4
1,095.3
581.8
2,589.5
897.2
1,611.6
80.7
3,076.7
1,687.2
710.7
896.8
79.7
1,389.5
1,245.0
144.5
1,783.5
1,271.0
118.3
141.3
1,080.0
(68.6)
512.5
1,783.5
2,141.8
1,567.4

2014A
5,554.8
2,045.6
501.2
808.2
647.2
3,509.2
746.2
2,408.9
354.0
3,548.7
1,527.6
473.8
969.2
84.6
2,021.1
1,837.8
183.3
2,006.1
1,227.8
118.3
147.1
1,034.3
(71.9)
778.3
2,006.1
2,807.0
2,305.8

2015A
6,595.0
2,374.1
698.1
700.7
882.1
4,220.9
871.0
2,997.7
352.2
4,009.2
1,387.7
418.2
874.9
94.6
2,621.5
2,451.8
169.7
2,585.8
1,497.5
135.6
329.3
1,099.4
(66.7)
1,088.2
2,585.8
3,326.7
2,628.6

2016F
6,669.7
2,395.9
949.2
755.9
596.6
4,273.8
906.4
2,998.8
368.6
4,015.4
1,387.0
416.6
874.9
95.5
2,628.4
2,451.8
176.6
2,654.3
1,566.0
135.6
329.3
1,167.9
(66.7)
1,088.2
2,654.3
3,326.7
2,377.5

2017F
6,963.2
2,635.4
715.0
1,079.7
745.6
4,327.8
943.2
2,999.8
384.8
4,202.0
1,566.3
595.0
874.9
96.5
2,635.6
2,451.8
183.8
2,761.2
1,673.0
135.6
329.3
1,274.9
(66.7)
1,088.2
2,761.2
3,326.7
2,611.7

2013A
63.3
7.8
79.5
132.2
(144.7)
(7.6)
66.8
(111.2)
(92.7)
(354.4)
(8.2)
2.7
(507.5)
93.0
(4.1)
37.1
41.5
(14.6)
14.6
(257.3)
763.5
506.2
315.6
490.9
(175.3)

2014A
186.4
14.0
85.2
30.0
30.0
369.1
53.4
(324.8)
(67.7)
(897.6)
(91.5)
0.0
(659.5)
11.1
(6.4)
525.9
452.1
(14.4)
14.4
(182.0)
506.2
324.2
230.3
776.2
(545.9)

2015A
(65.4)
94.4
103.1
56.5
(199.3)
122.1
(219.4)
22.9
(124.9)
(659.4)
9.6
0.0
(667.1)
2.7
(14.7)
956.0
464.8
184.4
13.5
236.3
324.2
560.5
253.9
868.3
(614.3)

2016F
435.6
76.8
125.3
4.9
228.6
(55.2)
285.5
(1.7)
0.0
(181.8)
(5.6)
(22.7)
(120.0)
0.0
(22.8)
(8.3)
0.0
(8.3)
8.3
245.5
560.5
806.1
207.0
(52.4)
259.4

2017F
(50.3)
115.2
125.6
3.2
(294.3)
(323.8)
(149.0)
178.4
0.0
(181.5)
(5.8)
(21.7)
(120.0)
0.0
(22.8)
(8.3)
0.0
(8.3)
8.3
(240.0)
806.1
566.0
244.0
470.0
(225.9)

(:)

()
()
()

Gross Cash flow

Gross Investment
Free Cash Flow

(:)

(%)

(%)
EBITDA
(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

EPS()
(%)
EPS()
(%)

2013A
8,256.6
(9.9)
7,575.2
681.3
487.3
(0.0)
194.0
1.8
273.5
3.9
(161.3)
24.0
62.1
(124.7)
1.4
32.8
(82.8)
24.9
7.8
(95.0)
(30.9)

38.7
(1,444)

(1,444)

2014A
7,283.6
(11.8)
6,624.4
659.3
509.7
(0.0)
149.6
(22.9)
234.7
(14.2)
(115.3)
24.0
61.3
(72.1)
(5.9)
34.3
4.6
20.3
14.0
78.7
(25.1)

39.1
(1,173)

(1,173)

2015A
5,269.2
(27.7)
4,658.1
611.1
496.8
0.0
114.3
(23.6)
217.3
(7.4)
2.1
13.9
72.8
52.9
8.1
116.4
239.8
22.0
94.4
575.8
55.6

38.8
2,356

2,314

2016F
5,664.9
7.5
5,010.5
654.3
507.6
0.0
146.8
28.4
272.1
25.2
(45.7)
17.8
66.5
2.0
1.0
101.0
(13.2)
24.2
76.8
(18.6)
76.8
38.2
0.0
3,159
34.1
3,119
34.8

2017F
7,620.0
34.5
6,748.6
871.4
681.2
0.0
190.2
29.6
315.9
16.1
(38.6)
22.9
66.5
4.0
1.0
151.6
50.1
36.4
115.2
50.1
115.2
50.1
0.0
4,742
50.1
4,701
50.7

2013A

2014A

2015A

2016F

2017F

(1,444)
52,101
400

(1,173)
50,329
300

2,314
55,218
310

3,119
57,744
310

4,701
61,688
310

n/a
1.0
12.0
0.7
4.2

n/a
1.2
19.1
0.5
6.6

30.8
1.3
25.7
0.4
7.6

26.0
1.4
20.5
0.4
10.8

17.3
1.3
18.4
0.4
9.1

2.4
3.3
0.1
0.6
1.8

2.1
3.2
0.2
1.1
1.9

2.2
4.1
1.8
6.9
2.2

2.6
4.8
1.4
5.0
2.5

2.5
4.1
1.5
7.1
3.2

87.9
134.6
5.1

114.9
133.9
4.0

101.7
171.1
1.9

89.6
172.7
3.0

94.6
168.3
4.4

1.7
7.5
13.4
10.2

1.4
7.7
11.9
12.3

0.9
7.0
6.9
11.8

0.9
7.8
7.7
13.6

1.1
8.3
11.4
15.1

136

()
EPS
BPS
DPS
(,%)
PER
PBR
EV/ EBITDA

PCR
(%)

EBITDA

ROE
ROIC
(,%)
/

()

Analyst | /

(000100.KS)

Tel. 368-6170 / jhkwak@eugenefn.com

BUY()

(12M, )
(3/17)

1970
JV

(: 2016. 3. 17)

1969

KOSPI(pt)

. 10 3%

KOSDAQ(pt)

40%

R&D . 2015

52 Beta

R&D .


BUY, 33

691.5
5,000

()
52 /()

1,988.0

()

2015
, L/I

330,000
280,500

3,128.3
347,500 / 174,000
1.36

()

11,153

(3M,)

51

(3M,)

14,610

(15A, %)

0.6

(%)

31.0

(%)
2

15.5

13.5

7.6

. B ( 1,100),
(850), (760)

(%)

1M

3M

6M

12M

-0.2

6.9

14.7

59.4

KOSPI

-5.7

6.4

14.1

61.4

, 30% ,
2016
. BUY, 33

(12)
()

2014

2015

2016F

1,017.5

1,128.7

1,232.9

()
()
()

74.4

85.8

74.0

116.1

168.3

139.5
106.0

90.9

126.0

8,155

11,264

9,467

5.2

38.1

(16.0)

PER()

20.8

24.1

30.0

ROE(%)

7.3

9.5

7.5

PBR()

1.5

2.3

2.2

15.4

23.6

25.9

EPS()
(%)

EV/EBITDA()
:

137

Analyst | /

160

() (a)

1,999

EBITDA

111

2016

EV/EBITDA ()

18.0

() (b)

1,378

1,143

235

() (c)

-354

() (d=a+b-c)

3,731

() (e)

2016 30 , 30% , 30%

30%

11,153

() (f=e/d)

334,554

161

()

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

711.4

751.7

819.9

881.9

957.4

77.6

81.7

89.2

92.4

97.1

130.1

157.4

193.6

239.3

285.5

931.6

1,008.2

1,120.9

1,232.9

1,360.3

38.3

44.4

48.4

30.2

51.0

1.1

1.4

1.8

1.9

2.0

20.9

26.7

33.8

40.9

47.6

61.8

74.4

85.8

74.0

101.6

5.4%

5.9%

5.9%

3.4%

5.3%

1.4%

1.7%

2.1%

2.1%

2.1%

16.0%

16.9%

17.4%

17.1%

16.7%

6.6%

7.4%

7.7%

6.0%

7.5%

1,366.0

1,400.7

1,512.8

1,633.8

1,748.1

1970 . 30%

YOY

-3%

3%

8%

8%

7%

163.4

167.3

180.7

195.2

208.8

12%

12%

12%

12%

12%

40.7

43.2

49.5

54.5

59.9

138

Analyst | /

162

2013-11-18

Holmium166

: 10

2013-11-20

2014-01-02

2014-03-13

2014-06-01

2015-01-23

2015-07-29 /Genosco

GNS-1480

2015-09-21

2015-09-23

SAMiRNA-CTGF

163

Licensing

10
: 2016.12.31.
6
: 2016.9.25.
6 3

2013-01-07

ShenZhen Mainluck

YHB1411-2

License Agreement

2013-06-17

Gilead Sciences

Manufacturing and Supply Agreement

2013-09-25

F.Hoffmann-La Roche

Roche Product

Global Service Agreement

2013-10-31

B.V.Rentokil Funding

YuYu Calmic Shares

Share Transfer Agreement

2014-01-20

Green Pine

Cefpiran

Distribution Agreement

2014-01-23

MSD Korea

Mercilon

Exclusive Distribution and Promotion

Agreement

2014-03-11

AstraZeneca Korea

Crestor

Co-Promotion Agreement

Twynsta

Alliance Agreement

Trajenta

Alliance Agreement

Pradaxa

Alliance Agreement

Jardiance

Alliance Agreement

2015-01-01
2015-01-01
2015-01-01
2015-01-01

Boehringer Ingelheim
Korea
Boehringer Ingelheim
Korea
Boehringer Ingelheim
Korea
Boehringer Ingelheim
Korea

2015-01-01

UCB Korea

UCB Products

Sales and Promotion Services Agreement

2015-01-01

UCB Korea

UCB Products

Distribution Agreement

2015-05-27

Novartis Korea

Distrbution and Co-Promotion Agreement

2015-06-04

GSK Korea

Promotion and Distribution Agreement

139

Analyst | /

164

YH12852

YH12852

2b

YH14618

YH18406

YH25448

YH25348

YH25723

YH24931

YH23537

YH14755

YH22162

YH22189

YH14617

YH1177

165

15.4%

(000100.KS)

30.0%

30.0%

140

100%

100%

50.0%

40.0%

38.5%

26.5%

G.T.B.L

Analyst | /

(000100.KS)

(:)

2013A
1,514.0
719.5
354.1
222.1
141.4
794.4
559.5
225.1
9.8
285.7
228.3
142.1
33.6
52.6
57.4
18.5
38.9
1,228.2
1,228.2
56.9
114.1
1,118.5
(61.2)
0.0
1,228.2
52.1
(302.0)

2014A
1,616.0
841.3
427.7
239.6
172.3
774.7
830.8
236.4
(292.5)
340.1
255.1
151.6
46.1
57.5
85.0
24.1
60.9
1,275.9
1,275.9
56.9
115.8
1,180.3
(77.1)
0.0
1,275.9
70.2
(357.5)

2015A
1,880.3
959.4
479.9
235.4
242.3
920.9
601.3
307.8
11.8
516.4
356.6
199.2
65.6
91.8
159.8
86.0
73.8
1,363.9
1,363.9
56.9
115.8
1,273.6
(82.3)
0.0
1,363.9
151.6
(328.3)

2016F
1,969.1
1,010.6
505.1
255.4
248.3
958.5
625.7
315.6
17.2
519.1
356.4
198.0
65.6
92.8
162.8
86.0
76.8
1,450.0
1,450.0
56.9
115.8
1,359.6
(82.3)
0.0
1,450.0
151.6
(353.5)

2017F
2,101.1
1,101.1
543.5
281.8
274.0
1,000.0
651.1
326.7
22.2
543.6
377.7
218.5
65.6
93.7
165.9
86.0
79.9
1,557.5
1,557.5
56.9
115.8
1,467.1
(82.3)
0.0
1,557.5
151.6
(391.9)

2013A
79.8
86.5
18.9
(43.8)
(31.5)
(43.1)
(8.5)
25.9
(5.9)
(10.6)
81.8
0.0
(55.8)
0.8
(3.5)
5.7
44.0
(7.0)
13.2
74.9
195.0
270.0
95.8
123.9
(28.0)

2014A
94.4
90.9
26.5
(33.1)
(54.4)
(16.8)
(31.1)
14.4
(20.9)
(192.2)
(141.9)
0.0
(35.8)
0.5
(2.6)
(16.4)
18.1
2.5
15.6
(114.3)
270.0
155.7
121.3
104.8
16.5

2015A
126.2
126.0
31.1
(16.7)
(36.8)
4.7
(72.2)
25.6
5.1
(117.8)
34.3
0.0
(81.3)
1.0
(2.0)
57.4
81.4
(18.0)
18.0
66.1
155.7
221.8
140.4
189.0
(48.5)

2016F
64.3
106.0
37.1
(52.4)
(26.3)
(20.0)
(6.0)
(1.2)
0.9
(29.7)
(10.5)
36.3
(43.4)
0.0
(6.8)
(19.9)
0.0
(19.9)
19.9
14.7
221.8
236.5
90.6
45.5
45.1

2017F
78.7
127.4
38.7
(56.7)
(30.7)
(26.4)
(25.7)
20.5
0.9
(31.3)
(10.9)
39.8
(47.9)
0.0
(6.8)
(19.9)
0.0
(19.9)
19.9
27.5
236.5
264.0
109.4
51.1
58.4

(:)

()
()
()

Gross Cash flow

Gross Investment
Free Cash Flow

(:)

(%)

(%)
EBITDA
(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

EPS()
(%)
EPS()
(%)

2013A
943.6
21.5
649.8
293.8
231.9
0.0
61.8
78.7
80.7
55.2
45.3
12.6
0.8
44.2
(10.7)
107.1
0.1
20.7
86.5
7.0
86.5
7.0
0.0
7,753
7.0
7,753
7.0

2014A
1,017.5
7.8
702.1
315.4
241.0
0.0
74.4
20.3
100.9
25.0
41.7
12.2
2.1
31.8
(0.2)
116.1
8.4
25.1
90.9
5.2
90.9
5.2
0.0
8,155
5.2
8,155
5.2

2015A
1,128.7
10.9
788.1
340.7
254.8
(0.0)
85.8
15.4
116.9
15.8
82.5
11.6
3.1
75.6
(1.5)
168.3
45.0
42.3
126.0
38.6
126.0
38.6
0.0
11,302
38.6
11,264
38.1

2016F
1,232.9
9.2
912.0
320.8
246.8
0.0
74.0
(13.8)
111.1
(5.0)
65.5
15.2
4.3
55.4
(0.9)
139.5
(17.1)
33.5
106.0
(15.9)
106.0
(15.9)
0.0
9,505
(15.9)
9,467
(16.0)

2017F
1,360.3
10.3
990.7
369.7
268.0
0.0
101.6
37.3
140.3
26.3
66.0
16.8
4.3
59.8
(6.2)
167.7
20.2
40.2
127.4
20.2
127.4
20.2
0.0
11,425
20.2
11,387
20.3

2013A

2014A

2015A

2016F

2017F

7,753
107,847
1,500

8,155
112,029
1,750

11,264
119,762
1,750

9,467
127,319
1,750

11,387
136,757
1,750

24.1
1.7
22.4
0.8
22.2

20.8
1.5
15.4
1.0
15.9

24.1
2.3
23.6
0.6
22.1

30.0
2.2
25.9
0.6
35.9

25.0
2.1
20.2
0.6
29.7

6.6
8.6
9.2
7.2
9.8

7.3
9.9
8.9
7.3
11.0

7.6
10.4
11.2
9.5
11.9

6.0
9.0
8.6
7.5
9.6

7.5
10.3
9.4
8.5
12.3

N/A
315.2
N/A

N/A
329.7
N/A

N/A
269.0
N/A

N/A
283.6
N/A

N/A
291.5
N/A

0.6
4.7
6.9
7.6

0.7
4.4
6.5
6.9

0.6
4.8
5.4
6.4

0.6
5.0
5.0
6.2

0.7
5.1
5.2
6.5

()
EPS
BPS
DPS
(,%)
PER
PBR
EV/ EBITDA

PCR
(%)

EBITDA

ROE
ROIC
(,%)
/

()

141

Analyst | /

(115180.KQ)
,

R&D

Tel. 368-6170 / jhkwak@eugenefn.com

Not rated
(3/17)

42,000

(: 2016. 3. 17)

, .

KOSPI(pt)

KOSDAQ(pt)

, 1/2

()

()

1,988.0
691.5
500
303.5

52 /()

50,500 / 33,900

52 Beta

27.02

()

7,227

(3M,)

, Unmet needs ,

R&D Q301( ) Q203(

) . unmet
needs .

1,036

(3M,)

43,806

(15A, %)

N/A

(%)

1.8

(%)

23.3

, . Q301

. Drug
repositioning .
FDA 1 2A 2016

(%)

1M

3M

6M

12M

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

KOSPI

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

1 2 . , 2019

, FDA

(12)

2014

2015

()

215

7,700

-6,646

-8,230

-1,114

()

2016F

Q203

()

-10,706

-9,302

-1,125

. , , 3 9

()

-10,706

-9,302

-1,125

. FDA PRV(Priority Review

Voucher) . , 7 ,
.
3,800(3.5$)

2 29 1 . 3 29
24% 173 .
,
Q203, Q301

142

Analyst | /

166

R&D

167
()

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

215

7,700

9,900

23,375

122,487

104,318

165,061

215

4,337

6,861

8,230

8,814

9,431

10,083

10,773

12,794

15,139
1,451

685

1,012

1,215

1,251

1,289

1,327

1,367

1,408

2,721

4,331

6,000

6,300

6,615

6,946

7,293

7,658

8,041

-4,337

-6,646

-8,230

-1,114

469

13,292

111,714

91,524

149,923

-4,820

-10,706

-9,302

-1,125

446

12,627

106,128

92,439

151,422

-4,820

-10,706

-9,302

-1,125

446

12,627

79,596

69,330

113,567

11,430

3,857

33,114

963

-21,683

2,894

912

2,816

143

Analyst | /

168

1,650,494

23.30

1,650,494

11

2,843,618

40.15

1,109,120

1,734,498

187,500

2.65

187,500

Novartis Bioventures

338,136

4.77

338,136

42,240

0.60

42,240

12,777

0.18

12,777

1,395,223

19.70

1,395,223

1%

260,000

3.67

260,000

353,074

4.98

353,074

7,083,062

100

3,117,417

3,965,645

(/)

169

()

492.1

Q301

64.0

Q203

428.1

()

7,227

()

68,087

47,850

42%

170
()

782

EBITDA ()

112

7.0

NPV

594

()

7,227

()

82,232

47,850

144

2 EBITDA

72%

Analyst | /

Compliance Notice
3
1%
3

,

, , , ,
, .

/
: 12 ( )

(%)

STRONG BUY()

+50%

4%

BUY()

+20% ~ +50%

81%

HOLD()

0% +20%

13%

REDUCE()

0%

2%
(2015.12.31 )

2016-03-21

BUY

(170900.KS)

()
220,000

()
250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
14/01

2016-03-21

BUY

14/07

14/10

15/01

15/04

15/07

15/10

16/01

(128940.KS)

()
1,000,000

14/04

()

1,200,000

1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
14/01

14/04

14/07

14/10

15/01

15/04

15/07

145

15/10

16/01

Analyst | /

2016-03-21

BUY

(185750.KS)

()
162,000

()

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
14/01

2016-03-21

BUY

14/07

14/10

15/01

15/04

15/07

15/10

16/01

SK(006120.KS)

()
100,000

14/04

()
120,000

SK

90,000

60,000

30,000

0
14/01

2016-03-21

BUY

14/04

14/07

14/10

15/01

15/04

15/07

15/10

16/01

(000100.KS)

()
330,000
()

400,000

350,000
300,000
250,000

200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
14/01

2016-03-21

BUY

14/07

14/10

15/01

15/04

15/07

15/10

16/01

(115180.KQ)

()
N/A

14/04

()

60,000

50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
02/29

146

03/05

03/10

03/15

03/20