jiyanbin@cicc.com.

cn

2016 11 17

ZTO.US

14.48
17.50

17.50 29.8 2017

1 2016 2017 46% 30%2

80%3 2016
2015 1~2

1shared-success2011~2015 80%

2
19%3

2016

20162017 2018 2.62 4.08 5.34 43%

24.8 2017 UPS
17.50 29.8 2017

2016 11 17 Shared-success model to boost take-off

CFA

xin.yang@cicc.com.cn
SAC S0080511080003
SFC CE Ref APY553

ruomu.li@cicc.com.cn
SAC S0080516030001

jiyanbin@cicc.com.cn

 jiyanbin@cicc.com.cn

2016 11 17

EBITDA

2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E

3,904

6,086

9,695

13,820

-2,771

-3,999

-6,385

-9,005

-535

-592

-781

-1,036

600

1,529

2,581

3,854

-1

38

71

224

10

603

1,752

2,629

3,925

-202

-420

-630

-941

406

1,303

1,918

2,984

406

1,303

1,918

2,984

666

1,894

2,836

4,308

163

2,719

11,976

11,813

49

58

92

387

16

24

36

535

645

1,003

1,491

753

3,438

13,096

13,726

926

1,753

3,546

6,165

2,379

4,091

4,091

4,141

4,222

7,144

9,343

12,416

4,974

10,582

22,439

26,143

250

300

300

300

152

294

498

675

1,129

2,057

2,419

2,963

1,531

2,651

3,217

3,937

47

85

85

85

1,578

2,736

3,302

4,022

27

12

12

12

3,396

7,846

19,136

22,120

4,974

10,582

22,439

26,143

603

1,752

2,629

3,925

64

158

219

394

684

470

-174

62

-280

-512

-290

-1,076

1,072

1,868

2,384

3,305

2,379

-3,495

-1,450

-2,418

-3,468

-1,116

-1,450

-2,418

-3,468

500

9,407

250

50

600

600

60

2,234

-300

-300

810

2,284

9,707

300

127

2,289

9,258

-163

EBITDA

EBITDA

EV/EBITDA

2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E

N.M.

55.9%

59.3%

42.6%

N.M.

154.7%

68.8%

49.3%

N.M.

184.3%

49.7%

51.9%

N.M.

220.6%

47.2%

55.5%
34.8%

29.0%

34.3%

34.1%

15.4%

25.1%

26.6%

27.9%

17.1%

31.1%

29.2%

31.2%

10.4%

21.4%

19.8%

21.6%

0.49

1.30

4.07

3.49

0.49

1.29

4.06

3.48

0.11

1.03

3.72

3.00

31.7%

25.9%

14.7%

15.4%

2.6%

16.3%

16.8%

11.6%

12.3%

23.9%

23.2%

14.2%

14.5%

0.56

1.78

2.62

4.08

4.64

10.73

26.16

30.24

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

1.47

2.55

3.26

4.52

161.7

52.8

37.4

24.8

19.4

8.8

3.8

3.3

98.8

35.0

21.2

14.5

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

2015

2
jiyanbin@cicc.com.cn

 jiyanbin@cicc.com.cn

()
/, 36 /

2000
2005 195 38 47 49

/
http://www.cicc.com.cn/CICC/chinese/operation/page4-4.htm

(Conviction BUY) 6~12 30% 20%

-10%~20%

-10%-20% (Conviction SELL)

* - * - * - * -
6~12 10%
6~12 -10% 10%

6~12 10%

V150902

jiyanbin@cicc.com.cn

 jiyanbin@cicc.com.cn

1
2 28
100004
(86-10) 6505-1166
(86-10) 6505-1156

1233
32
200120
(86-21) 5879-6226
(86-21) 5888-8976

1
29
(852) 2872-2000
(852) 2872-2100

Singapore

United Kingdom

7088
25 2503
518040
(86-755) 8319-5000
(86-755) 8319-9229

China International Capital

Corporation (Singapore) Pte. Limited

China International Capital

Corporation (UK) Limited
Level 25, 125 Old Broad Street
London EC2N 1AR, United Kingdom
Tel: (44-20) 7367-5718
Fax: (44-20) 7367-5719

#39-04, 6 Battery Road

Singapore 049909
Tel: (65) 6572-1999
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6
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2
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398
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299 1
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6
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18
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2
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208
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9
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9
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401120
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219
10
300051
(86-22) 2317-6188
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6
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116001
(86-411) 8237-2388
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2
12
528000
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C1
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459

410001
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999 5
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128-1
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(86-591) 8625 3050

jiyanbin@cicc.com.cn