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GII THIU
Ch s gi c phiu nim yt ngnh ngn hng tng 45%, trong ni bt l vic
c phiu VCB hin tr thnh c phiu c mc vn ha ln nht trn th trng, vic
gi c phiu ngnh tng mnh k t u nm ti nay c hm cho vic thay i nhn
t c bn hay khng, v qu trnh tng gi c phiu ngnh c th tip tc din ra
khng l nhng cu hi m chng ti hng ti vic tr li trong bo co Ngnh ngn
hng ny. c hiu v c nhn nhn chi tit xin mi c tip phn di, v trong
bo co ca mnh chng ti s dng s liu ca 08 c phiu ngnh ngn hng i
din cho cc bin s ca ton ngnh.
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
135
130
125
2014
Jul
Nov Dec
2015
Mar
Sau khi thc hin phn tch nh gi, chng ti rt ra rng c phiu ngnh Ngn hng s
l c phiu dn dt th trng trong nm 2015, v chng ti vn khuyn ngh tng t trng
c phiu ca ngnh, quan im ny xut pht t lun im c trnh by di.
IM NHN U T
Email: minh.phamcao@mbs.com.vn
Tel: (+84) 126 564 1152
www.mbs.com.vn
MC LC
TNG QUAN NGNH........................................................................ 3
BIN NG GI C PHIU NGNH NGN HNG ............................ 8
TRIN VNG NGNH NGN HNG ................................................ 10
TRIN VNG U T .................................................................... 11
08/06/2015
Tng trng
doanh thu
2007
26,746.36
2008
36,971.06
2009
40,451.14
2010
59,225.04
2011
84,462.41
2012
85,247.01
2013
85,951.15
2014
92,903.25
19.47%
Qui m v tm quan trng ca ngnh Ngn hng so vi nn kinh t cng tng ln theo thi
gian v k t nm 2007 qui m tn dng/GDP trong nn kinh t lun mc hn 80%, th
1.
th 1: Tn dng/GDP v tc tng trng Tn dng
140%
125%
113%
120%
105% 108%
97%
100%
88%
80%
65%
48%
37%
41%
21.5% 22.2%
87%
69%
57%
60%
40%
110%
53.9%
41.7%
28.4%
31.0%
36.2%
26.0%
25.4%
27.7%
10.9% 8.9% 12.5% 13.0%
20%
0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Tn dng/GDP
Qui m tn dng c cung cp bi ngnh ngn hng so vi GDP tng hng nm, k t
nm 2001 ti nay, v t nh cao nht vo nm 2010, trc khi quay tr li mc thp hn
vo cc nm 2011 - 2014, y l thi k m n xu l bc cn tr tn dng ca h thng
ngn hng ra bn ngoi nn kinh t.
Qui m ngnh tng ln, i km vi mc li sut ROE ton ngnh cng c duy tr mc
rt cao, trung bnh ngnh mc trn 10%, trong c iu kin xu ca nn kinh t, v suy
thoi ca ngnh theo nn kinh t, v nu xt theo trung bnh mt chu k k t nm 2008 2014 th ROE trung bnh ngnh Ngn hng mc 15,42%, nh s liu bng 2.
08/06/2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
CTG
15.70
10.23
22.33
26.74
19.81
13.21
10.47
BID
19.38
21.04
19.68
13.20
12.83
13.37
15.15
VCB
17.75
25.71
22.87
17.00
12.53
10.38
10.71
MBB
17.80
19.35
21.71
22.96
20.49
16.25
15.62
STB
12.64
18.25
15.24
14.47
7.10
14.49
12.56
ACB
31.53
24.63
21.74
27.49
6.38
6.58
7.64
SHB
8.76
13.60
14.98
15.02
22.00
8.56
7.59
EIB
7.43
8.65
13.51
20.39
13.32
4.32
0.39
16.37
17.68
19.01
19.66
14.31
10.90
10.02
Ngnh
Ngun: Bloomberg
Kt lun: Tc tng trng doanh thu cao hn tc tng trng GDP, ROE ngnh cao
hn cc ngnh cn li trong nn kinh t, cho thy hm ngnh Ngn hng ang giai
on tng trng.
2. Tnh chu k ca ngnh ngn hng
H thng ngn hng Thng mi Vit Nam, va l mt thc th kinh doanh, va l mt
cng c NHTW Vit Nam thc hin chnh sch tin t iu tit v m nn kinh t.
Do l phn khng th thiu trong vic trin khai chnh sch tin t ca NHTW khi iu tit
nn kinh t, Ngnh ngn hng lun l lnh vc chu tc ng sm ca cc chnh sch iu
tit v m v chu gim st cht ch ca NHTW trong vic bo v s an ton ca h thng.
K t nm 1989 - 1990 ti nay, 2015, nn kinh t Vit Nam tri qua 02 chu k pht
trin. Chu k th 1 bt u t nm 1989 - 1999, v chu k th 2 bt u t 1999 2012
( th 1: Chu k kinh t Vit Nam). Chng ti chng kin tt c cc giai on bin
ng chu k kinh t Vit Nam, c bit l nhng giai on nh hoc y chu k, Ngn
hng TW Vit Nam lun a ra chnh sch tin t theo hng tht cht hoc m rng v
iu ny tc ng mnh ti ngnh ngn hng.
th 2: Chu k kinh t Vit Nam
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
Tc
tng
trng
GDP
1
0
Khi ngn hng TW thc hin chnh sch tin t s nh hng ti ngnh ngn hng theo 03
hng c bn (1) T l thu nhp li cn bin, (2) tc tng trng doanh thu, (3) tc
tng trng GDP ca ton nn kinh t, tc tng trng GDP sau s nh hng ti
kh nng chi tr cc khon n ca ton nn kinh t, tc l s nh hng ti kt qu kinh
doanh ca cc ngn hng kha cnh tng thm n xu hoc/v m rng tn dng.
08/06/2015
Cho ti thi im hin ti, ngun thu t li vay ca h thng cc ngn hng Vit Nam chim
75% - 80% (bng 1), v iu ny dn ti kt qu kinh doanh ca cc ngn hng bin ng
theo chu k ca nn kinh t v cc chnh sch tht cht hay ni lng tin t ca Ngn hng
TW ( th 2).
Bng 3: T l Thu nhp thun t li/ Doanh thu thun
M CP
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
77.7%
70.4%
82.7%
82.0%
80.7%
87.7%
82.5%
82.5%
80.8%
BID
N/a
79.0%
78.0%
69.9%
76.9%
79.4%
79.7%
72.6%
76.9%
VCB
72.1%
72.3%
78.9%
71.3%
72.2%
86.3%
71.6%
68.2%
64.1%
MBB
69.2%
62.2%
75.3%
69.0%
98.9%
93.1%
83.5%
78.5%
75.5%
STB
65.0%
45.4%
46.4%
56.2%
82.5%
75.7%
86.0%
84.1%
75.7%
CTG
ACB
65.4%
43.4%
64.4%
57.7%
77.3%
85.8%
116.0%
75.9%
75.9%
SHB
98.6%
34.1%
33.7%
74.8%
82.4%
84.1%
63.3%
86.0%
81.8%
EIB
61.5%
65.4%
69.8%
76.7%
77.7%
84.3%
88.0%
84.1%
84.8%
72.8%
59.0%
66.1%
69.7%
81.1%
84.5%
83.8%
79.0%
76.9%
Ngnh
Ngun: Bloomberg
th 3: Trng doanh thu ngnh v tng trng GDP
th 3, cho thng s l tc tng trng doanh thu ca ngnh hon ton bin ng
theo tc tng trng GDP ca Vit Nam, khi nn kinh t suy thoi ngay lp tc doanh
thu h thng ngn hng st gim, v ngc li khi tc tng trng nn kinh t tng ln
th doanh thu ton ngnh phc hi. Khi tin hnh kho st tnh tng quan ca tc tng
trng GDP v tc tng trng Doanh thu ngnh chng ti c c thng s h s
tng quan r = 0,8 v h s R Square mc 0,6 y l thng s cho thy s tng gia
tc tng trng ngun thu ca ngnh v GDP. Chu k bin ng kinh t tc ng mnh
ti chu k kinh doanh ca ngnh Ngn hng.
Trong thi im nm 2014, khi tc tng trng GDP c nm phc hi r nt, th doanh
thu ca ngnh bt u phc hi mc tng tng 8% so vi mc 0,8 % v 0,9% cc nm
2012 v 2013.
5
08/06/2015
Khi qu trnh kinh doanh ca ngnh ngn hng thay i theo chu k kinh doanh ca nn
kinh t, cc h s sinh li trung ca ngn cng thay i.
Bng 4: H s NIM cc ngn hng ln v trung bnh ngnh
m CP
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
CTG
3.17
3.39
4.36
2.24
4.26
5.22
4.15
3.68
3.08
BID
2.64
2.68
2.85
2.57
2.74
3.38
3.03
2.80
2.80
VCB
2.87
2.64
3.98
3.38
3.39
4.22
3.12
2.77
2.45
3.34
4.35
3.61
4.38
4.77
4.76
3.83
3.80
MBB
STB
4.42
3.20
2.19
3.35
4.13
4.62
5.34
5.12
4.33
ACB
3.98
2.82
3.49
2.68
2.88
3.58
3.89
2.98
3.09
3.65
3.55
3.52
2.32
1.88
2.01
SHB
EIB
Ngnh
3.42
3.14
3.90
4.29
3.46
3.82
3.15
1.92
1.78
3.03
3.59
3.22
3.60
4.14
3.72
3.12
2.92
Ngun: Bloomberg
H s NIM ton ngnh, t bng 2 cho thy rng bt k khi no nn kinh t tng trng
mnh, km vi lm pht cao u dn ti h s NIM cao, giai on nm 2008, 2010 v
2010, h s NIM cao hn cc nm lin trc v k sau rt nhiu, v y cng l cc nm
m Ngn hng TW thc hin vic tht cht chnh sch tin t.
H S NIM, bin ng nh trn cho hm :
- Cc ngn hng khng ch ng trong vic nng h s NIM m ph thuc vo bin ng
ca nn kinh t
- Trong iu kin nn kinh t tng trng nng, v ngn hng TW thc hin Chnh sch
tin t tht cht h s NIM tng, 2008, 2011, cho thy s tc ng mnh ca Chnh sch v
m ti ngnh Ngn hng.
Trong sut giai on t 2007 - 2014, trong nhng giai on nn kinh t suy thoi, cng i
km theo vic n xu/tng ti sn ngn hng gia tng, nm 2008, 2011 v 2012 l nhng
nm nh vy, bng 5. Ngc li khi nn kinh t phc hi th n xu/tng ti sn gim.
Bng 5: T l n xu/ tng ti sn (NPL/Total Assets)
m CP
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
CTG
--
1.77
0.41
0.42
0.48
0.97
0.65
0.74
BID
2.36
1.73
1.91
2.23
2.00
1.61
1.39
VCB
1.62
2.34
1.37
1.67
1.16
1.40
1.59
1.29
0.65
0.68
0.56
0.68
0.78
1.19
1.37
MBB
1.89
STB
0.13
0.30
0.37
0.29
0.33
1.30
1.00
0.80
ACB
0.03
0.29
0.07
0.14
0.33
1.46
1.95
1.41
SHB
0.17
0.82
1.30
0.67
0.92
4.30
2.16
1.25
EIB
0.48
2.07
1.08
0.68
0.66
0.68
0.97
1.33
Ngnh
0.80
1.26
1.02
0.95
0.90
1.83
1.55
1.25
Ngun: Bloomberg
Trong giai on tht cht chnh sch tin t nm 2011, nn kinh t suy thoi v t l n
xu ca h thng ngn hng tng rt cao trong nm 2012 v 2013, cho ti thi im
hin ti 2015, vn n xu vn ang l vn c Ngn hng TW thc y gii quyt.
08/06/2015
Kt lun:
Kt qu kinh doanh ca ngnh Ngn hng ph thuc vo chu k kinh t, v ph thuc vo
chnh sch tin t. Khi nn kinh t phc hi, doanh thu, v t l n xu/tng ti sn s gim
v ngc li.
Cc ngn hng khng th ch ng tng h s NIM v ph thuc vo iu kin nn kinh t,
hay cung cu vn trong nn kinh t trong vic gia tng h s NIM.
3. Cu trc ngnh
S lng ngn hng trong ngnh: ngnh ngn hng hin ti c 5 ngn hng thng mi nh
nc (NHTMNN), 31 ngn hng thng mi c phn (NHTMCP), 6 ngn hng lin doanh
(NHLD) v 6 ngn hng 100% vn nc ngoi.
Bng 6: H s Concentration Ratio (CR) o mc tp trung ngnh
Huy
ng
2007
Cho
vay
Huy
ng
2009
Cho
vay
Huy
ng
2012
Cho
vay
Huy
ng
2013
Cho
vay
Huy
ng
2014
Cho
vay
CR4
73.0%
71.7%
58.2%
62.8%
52.6%
59.9%
42.5%
41.4%
49.5%
42.8%
CR6
81.4%
83.0%
68.5%
71.5%
61.9%
68.3%
49.8%
47.2%
57.6%
48.1%
c thm ph lc c th thy iu kin thnh lp mt ngn hng ti Vit Nam vi cc ch th trong nc, v iu kin i vi cc Ngn hng hoc
php nhn nc ngoi mun thnh lp ngn hng, chi nhnh, v vn phng i din ti Vit Nam
7
08/06/2015
February
April
May
June
July
Augus t
Septem ber
Novem ber
2015
February
April
May
June
70%
50%
ACB
BID
30%
CTG
EIB
10%
MBB
SHB
-10%
-30%
STB
VCB
Vnindex
08/06/2015
Vic th gi c phiu Ngnh Ngn hng tng nhanh v mnh hn so vi ch s VN30 cho thy
tn hiu rng: Cc nh u t quan tm mnh ti nhm c phiu ngnh Ngn hng v
y cng l tn hiu cho thy trong nm 2015, nhm c phiu ngnh Ngn hng c th tr
thnh nhm c phiu c nhiu s ch ca th trng hn so vi cc nhm ngnh khc.
2.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
CTG
2.64
1.92
1.26
1.61
1.12
0.93
1.25
BID
1.66
VCB
3.40
2.07
1.50
1.52
1.47
1.96
2.67
0.82
1.02
0.94
0.92
0.97
MBB
STB
1.53
1.06
1.01
1.41
1.15
1.24
1.20
ACB
2.88
2.15
1.70
1.23
1.15
1.11
1.39
SHB
1.81
0.87
0.49
0.54
0.59
0.69
0.66
EIB
1.58
1.21
1.08
1.23
1.05
1.12
1.14
Ngnh
5/2015
2.31
1.55
1.12
1.22
1.07
1.14
1.33
Ngun: Bloomberg
08/06/2015
Ngnh ngn hng ang trong giai on tng trng, vi mc tng trng tng
ng tng mc tng trng giai on 2007 - 2014, tc tng trng 19,47%.
Trong iu kin Tc tng trng trung bnh ca nn kinh t l 6,14%.
Thi gian duy tr tc tng trng 19,47%.
Thi gian Qu trnh tng trng din ra.
khon thi gian duy tr tc tng trng Ngnh ngn hng chng ti da trn
nguyn l l: Ngnh s bc vo giai on tng trng n nh v thoi trao khi
tc tng trng doanh thu ca ngnh bng vi tc tng trng GDP. p
dng nguyn l trn v da trn nhn nh v tc tng trng ngnh l
19,47% v tc tng trng GDP mc 6,14% chng ti tnh c rng:
Ngnh Ngn hng s c tc tng trng trung bnh 19,47% trong 30
nm ti.
2
Tc 6% c chng ti s dng c hiu l con s mang tnh cn trng, tc l thi im hin ti v tng lai, chnh ph Vit Nam khng c
thm ci cch no v Th trng (Markets), Quyn s hu(Property Rights), v Phng tin trao i (Money Exchange)
10
08/06/2015
-
H s ROE s tng:
Trong nm 2015, tc tng trng tn dng trong ton h thng c Ngn
hng TW hng ti l 15% cao hn mc 13% nm 2014, v h thng Ngn hng
Thng mi bt u c m trong vic cho vay tn dng bt u t nm 2014.
y l nhn t s thc y vic tng trng doanh thu ca ton ngnh, cao hn
so vi nm 2014, trong nhm 08 ngn hng trong mu kho st chng ti cho l
tc tng trng tn dng mc 15% - 20%.
H s NIM theo chng ti nh gi t c kh nng tng so vi nm 2014 v c th
gim nh, iu ny bt ngun t:
Cu ngun vn cho t nn kinh t cha t ti mc nng, iu ny c ngha l
Ngn hng khng th tng li sut cho vay, chng ti kho nghim li qu kh
v nhn ra rng NIM ca h thng ngn hng ch c th tng khi Ngn hng TW
thc hin chnh sch tin t tht cht (bng 4 trn).
Li sut thc (Real interest) trong nn kinh t tng nhanh, nguyn nhn chnh dn
ti vic li sut thc tng nhanh do vic thm ht ngn sch ca Chnh ph Vit
Nam ang tng nhanh, v trong nm 2015 Chnh ph c nhiu khon n ti hn
cn phi thanh ton, trong tnh trng ny c th dn ti vic Chnh ph Vit Nam
s phi nng li sut huy ng vn.
Khi li sut thc trong nn kinh t tng s dn ti vic Ngn hng Thng mi cn
phi tng li sut huy ng tin gi, v trong iu kin cha th tng li sut cho
vay ngay lp tc dn ti vic h s NIM s gim nh so vi nm 2014.
Kt Lun
TRIN VNG U T
1.
Trin vng u t
Chng ti nhn mnh rng thi im hin ti trin vng u t vo c phiu ngnh ngn
hng vn rt tip tc kh quan, s kh quan ny bt ngun t:
11
2.
3.
08/06/2015
Lin h
Research: Phm Cao Minh
Email: minh.phamcao@mbs.com.vn
Tel: (+84) 126 564 1152
H Thng Khuyn Ngh: H thng khuyn ngh ca MBS c xy dng da trn mc chnh lch ca gi mc tiu 12 thng v gi c
phiu trn th trng ti thi im nh gi
Xp hng
MUA
>=20%
KH QUAN
T 10% n 20%
PH HP TH TRNG
T -10% n +10%
KM KH QUAN
T -10% n - 20%
BN
<= -20%
MBS HI S
Ta nh MB, s 3 Liu Giai, Ba nh, H Ni
T: + 84 4 3726 2600 - Fax: +84 3726 2601
Webiste: www.mbs.com.vn
Tuyn b min trch nhim: Bn quyn nm 2014 thuc v Cng ty CP Chng khon MB (MBS). Nhng thng tin s dng trong bo
co c thu thp t nhng ngun ng tin cy v MBS khng chu trch nhim v tnh chnh xc ca chng. Quan im th hin trong
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c vit ra nhm mc ch qung co hay khuyn ngh mua/bn bt k chng khon no. Bo co ny khng c php sao chp, ti
bn bi bt k c nhn hoc t chc no khi cha c php ca MBS.
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08/06/2015