41 Introduction When any industrial plant is to be designed, an initial decision must be made as to its size, in order to obtain the desired throughput. For example, for an oil refinery, this is the number of barrels per day; for a machine shop, it is the number of piece parts per day. In the case of a telecommunications system, it is the traffic to be handled. This determines the number of trunks to be provided. : In teletraffic engineering[1-3] the term trunk is used to describe any entity that will carry one call. It may be an international circuit with a length of thousands of Kilometres or a few metres of wire between switches in the same telephone exchange. The arrangement of trunks and switches within a telephone exchange is called its trunking. Ta record is made over a few minutes of the number of calls in progress on a large telecommunications system, such as a telephone exchange or a transmission route, it appears as shown in Figure 4.1. The number of calls varics in a random manner, as individual calls begin and end. If this random variation is smoothed out by taking a running average, the 5 é - 1 z 3 4 Time in minutes Figure 4.1 Short-term traffic variation. (87)21 Telecommunications trattic Casi propans 79 of waliccatad on three tanks. 1 erlang (abbreviation E), whichis named after afc theory[4], whose results are given in calls in progress depends on both 4.2 The unit of traffic wed as the average ‘aname has beea of call arrivals during time T The eraffc intensity, more oft olding time. number of calls in progress. Although thisis a dimensi caneieuie ** au.Congestion {91} “1 Telecommunications trattic thatthe trafic actually carried isless than the traffic offered to yogesti writ esa SY eos we eee cari = wfc ered — tat 1 or delayed due to con reals that 0 ston i measur of the aint ean ob rn Te proba a se ona eal the oad of soe For aloe ney he grade of uals the occupancy (4) ofthe trunk é rg Baye Oa 2 umber of alls Jos aT calls offered Example 4.1 — On average, during the busy hour, «company makes 120 outgois duration? minutes Tt rcnives 200 incoming cals of average uation Sco incoming traffic, (3) the total traffic Note: on average, four outgoing calls are made ducing tl 2 minutes and ten incoming calls are received during 3 minuts (cif T= A, then C = A). rage bolding time of rage holding time of 1s is offered to a group of trunks baving a grade of service B, the cerlangs. Example 4.2 : other times, it is much better, Specifying a grade of During the busy hour, on average, a customer with 2 single telepb calls and receives three calls. The average call duration is 2 minut probability that a caller will find the line engaged? Occupancy ofline = (3 + 3) x 2/60 = 0.1 E = probability of busy-hour grades of service can vary fom, ‘an exchange to 1 in 100 for inter-exchange connections {ternational routes. of determining the size of a telecommurications system, 4.3 Congestion ‘iven the offered traffic, A, and the specified -unks, N, that is required. This problem is dealt tis uneconomic to provide sufficient equipment to carry all Example 4.3 During the busy hour, 1200 calls were offered to group of trunks and six els wre lost. The average call duration was 3 minutes. Find therefore called quexing systems or delay systems. Ina circ telephone exchange, all attempts to make calls over a congested 2. 3 4. The grade of service ‘unsuccessful. Such systems are therefore called last-call systems. In 5 ‘The total duration of the periods of congestionL A= CHT = 1200 x 2 nb Seong vO OE 3 6x 30=03E 4. B= 6/1200 = 00s 5. 0.005'x 3600 = 18 seconds 4.4 Traffic measurement ‘an operating company to know how much bi In particular, it needs to kaow when 2 sy nal equipment should be Example 4.4 ‘Observations were made of the number of 5 minutes during the busy hour obtained were T3484 104 1641247494 15417416 +12 2 =RE 4.5 A mathematical model In order to obtain analytical solutions to teletraffie probl mathematical moc." ‘ the traffic offered to telecommunication: ‘model is based on the following assumptions: Pure-chance traffic istical equilibrium, ‘A mathematical mode! (93) se Tt also implies that the number of sources Mmomber of sources is small and several are already ils ean be generated is less than it would be if all the ofrandom cal asival and teinations ead othe folowing imption als ina given time has @ Poisson distribution (a proofs ofall teal rival time T and ps the mean numberof umber of Spm, pur-chance ai i ako called Poissonian yc ell rsvals ae the inten btweenindepsdent twee cl pend that themes havea eave at veween cal aia sat tech eal and so independent random eens Sa on Tam a tween two random events and ave 2 ‘negative exponential di rren=e™ ‘where h is the mean call duration (holding time).Pr EE 1 ercuy' Telecom ‘A mathematical mode! {96} ications trattic te Pexe Example 4.5 On average, one call —-——— SSSR tener St eet a, KS ® ru an wanstion diagram for N wunks 4. More than twa cals arrive? Figure 44 State ansition eee ex probabies not chargé andthe proce isd tobe Pete? ‘Marko interval of time &¢, starting at time t, Since 6c is very small, oe i ee ing during itis smal. The probably of two or ee ‘negligible. The events which can hay di or 7 =0270 a ducing 618 terefore MEEHEIDIC sppen during oor = 027 )) — P(t) = P(2) = 10135 ~ 0210-0270 032s Example 4.6 Ina telephone 5) the average call daration is 2 minutes. ell as ready as 4 minutes. What is the prot that: oe can holding time is h and the number of call in progress is k, one expects ae end during 2 period h. The average number of calls ending sce &t is very small, kdt/h « 1 and represents the uring 5. 43) calls in progress at time ¢ is PQ), thea the probability of a kK busy tranks during 8 is: PG-+k) = PG) Pla) = PG) ABA 44) ithe probability of calls at time tis P(k), then the probability ofa transition from kta Fora group oN trunks the numbe! Figure 4.1. This is an (e) = P(K) kbcfh. 4s) equilibrium requires that P(—+k) = P(k-»j). Otherwise progress would steadily increase or decrease. Thus, from ns (4.4) and (4.5){olecommunications raft FPR) 3h 4 PEpiy PA) = 494) Hence: Pa) = 40) PQ)= FP) = 4°) 4 ° and, in general: Pe) = Spe 7) Ths assumption of pure-chance trafic implies a very large umber. ‘of sources, Thus, x nity Then) ve between ero and infty and the sum of tier protec eo unity. Then: ta ¥ P= F Ap) - er) 2 PQ) =e" and a Py Lena ‘Thus, if call arrivals have a Poisson distribution, 50 does th rogress. This requires an infinite number of trunks to carry ‘trunks available is init, then some calls can be lost or delayed zo longer Poissonian. The distributions which then occur are derived in and 4.7. 4.6 Lost-call systems 4.6.1 Theory Erlang determined the grade of servi hhaving N trunks, when offered traffic cn the following assumptions: (© Pure-chance traffic ‘© Statistical equilibrium ¢ Full availability ‘¢ Calls which encouater congestion are lost. (i. the loss probal as shown in Figu tbe Lost-call systems (87) XE he call Figure 4.6 Lostcal system. at arrives can be connected to any ‘are connected tothe outgoing trunks ic offered during the re no congestion. The i speciale (1) Here, it omer dere are x calls in progress, then equation (4.7) gives: Pu) =4P0) However, there cannot be a negative aumber of calls and there cannot be more than N. ‘Thus, we know with, certainty that 0 < x < N. » ne Ho poe $A Substituting in equation (4.7) gives: fa as) Pay =A X AYROe proebiyeeatnt buoa Of pra taponae Btn 2 oeceeetion te Sern the probably fea ee POM is i fall-avs Symbol E,4(4), which % BTade of sry; UY Boy aur Se te hm ate Bm ayn AINE Many unaware fence eB, Sion (49) a “Exang (3.9) just gteation (4-8). Is preferable to remember (om equation (45), iterative formula enables E, »(A) to be computed for. : values of N, Tables of E, 4(4) have also been published [3] Example 4.7 A group of five trunks is offered 2 E of trafic, Find: 1. The grade of service 2 The probability that only one trunk is busy 3. The probability that unk is free 4. The probability that one trunk is fre, From equation (4.9}: BHE, A) = 32/120 2S 0.2667 = 9258 0007 aaa « 2 Fee 90817 =1— 0037-0963 vs) pele’ 8s) 4 eset gaompre 48 des a grade of service of001 when oflered 12 E of taf ee is to pn 120 ede of ervice improved fone extra taki added othe ee deteriorate if one trunk is out of service? : gt rade of service 70°F? goes th BF foe Traffic performance a number of occupancy unks, Tandem exchanges eS traffic to several each of which isthat te grade the high efficiency of large groups of trunks is that the fr tes more with traffic overloads than for small groups of trunks. Figure 4.7 shows how the grade of service varies with offered trafic for diferentAverage rac per trnk) &i6 £ 6 8 Figure 4.6 Trunk occ 6. Trunk occupancies for tl- availabilty groups of van (Grade of sorice = 0.002) ST" © Yous Ss Grade of service g ox x 10k TR DORK Percentage overload Figure 4.7 Effect of overload on grade of service. Lost-call systems [101] for A < 95E aon citron api 0A eat for A > 9.5E From equation (49), the GOS of a cerlangs be offered to trunks, single-trunk grout Ey 4(A) = Al +4). ‘Trafic overflowing from the first trunk to the second is AE, (A) = A144) Iraffic carried by the first trunk is Trafic offered — traffic lost = A — AP/(1+A) = A/(1+4) In general: ‘Traffic carried by the kth trunk = traffic lost from group of first k-1 trunksToi carted bya \ Toute N | 24ee 1 ea 1 Figure 4.8 Distribution of watic over tunks of @ group with sequential ‘search " Te may be thought simpler to consider each trunk as a overflow traffic from the previous trunk. Howe offered to the frst trunk is Poissonian. However, trunk is more peaky, because the ‘Traffic offered to subsequent trunks is saky. Calculating the trafic carried on the kth trunk by considering the trafic offered to a group of the fist k trunks ensures that the conditions for the Erlang Jost-call formula are satisfied wle-trunk group offered the be incorrect. The trafic Example 4.10 sequential selection is used for the group of trunks in Example 4.7, how much trafficis carried by: 1. The first-choice tcunk? 2. The last-choice trunk? Traffic carried by the first-choice trunk is: AML + A)= UY(l + 2)= 067 E 2 B32) = 0.037 E,4@)= Trafic carried by the last-choice trunk = 2 (0.095 ~ 0.037) = 0.12 E Lost-call systems [103] ms in tandem 3 Loss SYP. grade of service ofa complete connection, which may have ne gue dn at tage 5s Regs in ONT consisting of two ins, having grades of service By, By “erlang theo? dlink feet estin aio “eae caching estna ) By B, is negligible and the overall grade of, + By ‘an mink connection, we may write: an oversimplication, fortwo reasons First, grades of yo 5 hour ofone ink the los probabilities ected grades of serie, 20 tov los is not economic to instal Instead, its installed in the grade of service of any link will be much better than ‘period and will increase tothe specified value he traffic forecast is wrong and the traffic grows ice will exczed the specified value before the end of happened in the history of teecommunications! years, Consequent the provision period. This has 46.4 Use of traffic tables ble for solving the problem: given A anc Jem is: given A and B, find N. Eq) ied B p different values of B and N. A lects the specified value of Band looks down ‘ceeding the specified traffic load. Forexame, specified GOS is 0.01, then 10 E requires 18 trunksand 90 thecolumn to find the Table 4.1 shows equites 64 trunks. bes i i Operating company adopts a dual criterion, it can use modified bles ‘hich the number of trunks for cach entry corresponds to whether the normal rif ofQueueing systems (V0BT have also been published for wafic a on ate Ee Table 4.1 : i “ capaci onerous.{5} Tables, Fa cre ent gnc team eo inks (002) 103) BO. da te ref 01 rth & € 4 wi exam aga cans ol at = 2920 0010 ooos separate groups of lines? 1 3 oe ¢ 3 1S 2 980 os oa 4 ete randled oa a a ee eine on Poa ers citaat asec $ RR ee : i ig i | scorn Table 41° PoE: 1. From Teging tafe ens ae 4 Pigeomang eae ted mee 10 of perf nes eae i eg otal Su tg of 14 requires only 23 nes. foe 2 The i‘ 4.7 queueing systems ion second Erlang distribu babilty of encountering delay when wrafic is offered (0.8 49. In queuing systems, the trunks ry hes been applied ip many Belds other s applicable to queues of people arket checkout. Eriang’s solution 47a The the pr eve and are stored there until server Ful Calis which encounter congestion enter a qu Decomes free Jimes known as a M/M/N system.> 10 @) are coramon to the theory of lostcall systems. Howeyes, UA CN fA > N,calls ate entering the system ata greater Figure 4.9 Queuing system.(7) ‘The probability ofa call arth “atlarival ina very short petiod of tine, from equation (42) Pla) = 4 63 where h is the mean service time, Thus, the probability ofa ; 4 transition from x—1 to x calls in equation (a4) 2 wee 10 x calls in the system during 6, rom PUR= 165) = Pet) Asin Since all servers are busy, only the calls be only the ¥ calls being served cant in a lost-call system). Therefore, equation (4.3) is modinea Pee) =N sik and the probability of @ transition from x to x1 calls is given by te (instead of cals POe-+x 1) = Pf) Ple) = P(x) W Sefh For statistical equilibrium, P(x—i-+x) = P(x—x—1), = POs) Nox/h = PE! and (419) 4 Pa) =F Pq —1) Bor pay =A po) (Grom equation (4.7)) 4 an PON + 1) = FPN) = FPO) ane? 4 PWN +2) = SPW + 1) = PO) and so on. Queueing systems (107) “(jon en eo ne an easy : (sy ne en kn See 1 te iG i an nO) -[ 11), depending on whether x < Nor ‘This isthe second Erlang distribution * where k= x—N. meena (8) ofA"Average traffic per trunk E) Trunks required Total ratte Figure 4.6 Trunk occupancies for full-avail (Grade of service = 2 8 0 ont Grade of sorvcw 8 Cr Percentage overload Figure 4.7 Effect of overload on grade of service ante 41_TFT-cADGCY bie fr fl-avalabilty groupe \ \ 412 368 368 \ ai 67 Ne ay art) 792 756 727 614 201 786 735 683 B10 775 743° 681 81g 784 754 700 829 193 763 709 gag 903 72 718 gag e12 782 «728 85.7 822 79.1 Rs 867 832 800 mat Dele proba, (4) (4 = wath ineiangs, ten Tes) ah a The probability of delay is Py = P(x = N) results are plotted in Figure 4.10. The probability of as A increases towards N. When A > N, the length Queueing systems [108] ga queue capacitY Finite aye ccontat an infinite queue. Thu, when the queue has become an relost. the queue ean only hold up to Qeals, theo pitas ae +H LG) arinb +N TAIN all, there is negligible error in using equation a6) ayer N rerorme (4) wear© “ye i -(4)re ain sence, he queve capaci, neded 1 obtain an adeqsaey low los probably an petound. 4.7.4 Some other useful results Eguations (411) 0 (415) ado Frter resus (1 as tows 1, Mean number of ealls (i) When there eae Fagen (6.188) (i) Averaged over alltime, the mean number of ealls is Aa aa (418)Queueing systems {111} -ommunications trate therefore calculate the probability ofexceeding any given an Mean length of queue: (0) When there is detay, the ‘mean queue length one and F are needed because, when EA) small, delays which 20 poe peter 28 sreater than 7 smplex queuing stuations.{1,11,12} ‘being busy is simply its ‘queue discipline is “first in first out" vas elows: is delay the mean diay, Tg" AS Ou" FIFO), sia P= hn—a) were As the mean hodig tine i) Ave all tims. the mean delay. Tis (aT AN Ay ‘The variation of mean delay, 7, 4. Distribution of delays (FIFO qi Since the holding times have a n do the delays, Tp. Hence: (@) When there is delay, P(7, = Gi) Averaged over all time, PUT 2) = ExylAle™ (4.200) ic is shown in Figure 4.11 1 3x8 7% 2=9 lg ea rest : Posse 1e2 é Poa 1p 3 From equation (4.15) ee Saxe 129 9) ie 44%, 4 delay on answer, 2 When there is dela the mean delay is: Figure 4.11 Mean delays for queving Tes -Ay= == (T= mean delay, hr= mean service WIN — A) = 18/(3 — 2) = 18 seconds‘ommunications trate Tne SY BYETAREA OvEE all cli wea ng PUTy = ewe ‘Averaged over all cats: PUT, 19% © 20)= 189 x 044 = 836, Exemple 4.13 Ameen ane —— cna atts ge ee Sree any edge su mete eee 7m ‘ean delay (averaged over T= ani — ay 2 AsT/heD Now = 24//480 = 005 second A= 05/005 +05) —0.909 = ch where C= number of messages per second C= 0909/0.05 = 182 4.7.6 Queues in tandem the inputs to the second and subsequ can be considered as independent ‘The delay probability and the mean delay fo these for the indi ). However, itis possible to calculate }) from E, » (A), 28 fellows: a a 2,8 WEA (Grom eavation (49)) Simulation (113) ee EMEA ™ 13 : sie a same ey A La) * NIE, WA) FO en bg + (N= A) sa eqention (415) ee ea AY NN! (NAVE W(A)_ Ex) = Hi WA AP AE AY (N= A) NE, aA 1 tables of E, A). weful data fof queuing sys- xoeeding given valves oe cs of Bf) a be Hews les have abo been sena{ ID 13) ste a the peo ins of delay formulae queuing system. outgoing trunks jing trunk ymes 4.8 Simulation ers aul can ony be mad of simple systems, such a the fllavaleity ‘ONems considered in Sections 4.6 and 4 and extensions of them. In mote fc oation tang details ofthe son ree the wer : simulation rirom bvig to simulation studies on vation ona ab _yfecommunications wrattic !ages have been developed to Packages are now ava pe of network ‘Commercially for ss nommaty iy requited tobe to determine this small proport a 217 long computer rugs and an Be cashes Notes 1 ‘The proportion for whi time for which congestion exist and the probability that a call will encounter congestion ‘congestion. Usually, “ostalli-held assump Continues to demand service for a period ea ing have had if succesful. Thus, the grade of service (B) equals the probsbiiy of more than N alls i an infinite group of trunks, ie Beery 4 ‘This is no more than a convenient fiction, but it has been widely used in the USA Itis also called the Erlang B distribution. (The author does not know ofan Erlang, rion.) the traffic carried by the first traffic. This is an example of smoc traffic and peaky traffic are considered in Aj ‘This is the notation introduced by Kendall.[10] It deseribesa queueing system as X/YIN, where X is the input process, Y is the servies time distribution and Nis the number of servers. The following symbols are used: (M: Markov process (i. random arrivals and terminations) D: Constant holding time G: General distribution ‘Thus, the assumptions made above correspond to an M/M/N system. tis also called the Erlang C distribution. ee i oup of wank i rage duration of 1 fournneions 3 ira 927 fos wm ee tego Sce oe ny hoon average 30 6 ing te bo S Sr yunks On avrg, te wo Poecanas and 0 ind the ove 90 SE goup dug 2 posed eau Soe ea ration 30, 5, 10 of was offerd 1 switches that hunt equentay over 2 group of unk. mate the atic carne by each of the frst 1 26 46 WE, 40e BE In esch case, detemine the occupancy and the ‘umber of wunks quite per esang, 7. A tetecommunicatons company deensions its roues by the following citeria Site of savin or nea ms ba 6 ine fats rT ca Problems (115) From Table 41, find the numbers of munks required for JOE 4 SOE Coe 796 In asch case, sate which i the determining xpanemtialy isributed. with an average folding tine of 05 secong (2) Find the number of makers eauied,# the probability of 3 register having ta wai for 8 fetramamit messages may ta assumed 1 have can i handle per hour (0) Hf the device is required to handle 18 000 ‘alls per hour, whats the maximum ‘permissible average holding time?