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Mineral Economics
ABSTRACT
The selection of the production rate is one
of the most crucial decisions to be made in the
development of a mineral property. However, it
is not uncommon for the production rate to be
decided arbitrarily, before any technical evaluations begin, and it is often not reconsidered
when better data becomes available. A number
of methods are used in the mineral industry to
select the production rate for a project. There is
general agreement that the size of the ore
reserve has a strong influence on this decision,
but what other factors are involved? Is there a
way to identify an optimum rate? This paper
examines the factors that influence the selection of a production rate from the perspective
of project economics. The NPV maximum value
should be viewed as a failure point. The
two times capital maximum is proposed as a
lower limit. A practical check is suggested to
confirm that a selected rate is in an optimum
range. Production rate assumptions are much
more likely to be reviewed for marginal projects, but they should also be reviewed for
viable projects.
Introduction
The selection of the production rate is one
of the most crucial decisions to be made in the
development of a mineral property. This single
factor will determine the capital costs, operating costs, and mine life, all of which influence
the project economics and the viability of the
project. It is not uncommon for the production
rate to be decided arbitrarily, before any technical evaluations begin, and it is often not
reconsidered when better data becomes available. This frequently results in a mining and
processing facility that is inappropriately sized
for the deposit. As often as not, it is too large,
burdening the owner and the project with costs
that the deposit cannot support. This paper
examines the influence of revenue, reserves,
operating costs, and capital costs on the selection of the production rate.
Rules of Thumb
In the mining industry there is a rule of
thumb for almost every situation. The determination of a production rate is no exception.
These rules can be broadly divided into two
groups: (1) those related to the physical characteristics of the deposit; and (2) those related
to the economic characteristics of the project. A
number of examples are listed below. They are
presented for reference only and should be
used with caution.
Physical Characteristics
L.D. Smith
holds a B.A.Sc. in civil engineering from
the University of Toronto and an M.Eng.
in mining from McGill University. He is
the senior minerals economist for
Kilborn Inc. And has been with the
company since 1974. During that time
he has been involved in the evaluation
of numerous mining projects in Canada
and internationally. He has had the
opportunity to see many of the factors
that influence the assessment and
viability of a resource project in a variety
of corporate and political environments.
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Fig. 2. Maximum value curves for gold CIL and copper flotation projects.
Fig. 4. Characteristic maximum value curves for gold CIL project. A project can satisfy a
15% hurdle rate and still be poorly sized.
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Reserves
Discount rates
The production rate for the maximum value
increases with the size of the reserves, as illustrated in Figure 5. In this paper the impact of
Fig. 5. Characteristic maximum value curves for gold CIL project for several reserve values.
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Fig. 9. 10% NPV of the component values for the gold CIL project.
February 1997
Fig. 10. The NPV maximum value for the cash flow curve occurs at point A where the
capital cost curve is tangent to the return curve. Both are discounted at 10%.
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An optimum range
Having two maximum values is confusing.
What do they mean? How do they help? The
two curves are plotted in Figure 15 for comparison. Note that the vertical axes are different. It is only the points where the maximum
values occur on the production rate axis that
are important.
In the authors opinion, the NPV maximum value is the upper extreme of the production rate possibilities, a point at which the project begins to fail economically. Since the
two times capital maximum value is always less
than the cash flow maximum, then the
Fig. 11. The two times capital criteria may be satisfied by a number of production rates.
Fig. 12. A maximum value of the two times capital curve occurs at point B where the
capital cost curve is tangent to the undiscounted cash flow curve.
Fig. 13. Two times capital curve (undiscounted) with a maximum value at point B.
Fig. 14. Two times capital curves for gold CIL project for several reserve values.
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Conclusion
The selection of the production rate is one
of the most crucial decisions to be made in the
development of a mineral property, but it is
often determined arbitrarily before any technical
evaluations begin, and is frequently not reconsidered when better data becomes available.
In this regard, the significance of scoping
studies and pre-feasibility studies cannot be
over stressed. These studies are relatively inex-
Fig. 15. Cash flow NPV and two times capital maximum value curves. Each shows a
maximum value. These define an optimum range for production rates.
Fig. 16. Taylors Law and maximum value regression curves for cash flow NPV and two
times capital show the relationship between reserves and production rate.
Fig. 17. Taylors Law and maximum value regression curves for cash flow NPV and two
times capital show the relationship between reserves and mine life.
Fig. 18. When a study shows only one point for a project, it is not possible to determine
whether the production rate is well located on the rising side of the curve, or badly
located on the falling side.
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53
pensive and can narrow the range of likely production rates in preparation for the more expensive (and often irreversible) feasibility study.
It is possible to develop a characteristic NPV
maximum value curve and a two times capital
maximum value curve at any stage of a project.
The two maximum value points will indicate a
range of production rates between the point of
maximum ability to provide a return on investment
and point of maximum ability to repay capital.
The NPV maximum value should be considered to be the point at which the project
begins to fail economically. This value is
associated with extremely short mine lives.
The two times capital maximum value
identifies the point beyond which increases in
capital costs do not result in significant increases in cash flow, NPV, or DCFROR.
The production rate decision is much more
likely to be reviewed for marginal projects
because the owner will seek ways to improve
the return. However, this review is just as important for a viable project where the improvements
may mean substantial increases in return.
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References
ARIOGLU, E., 1988. Examination of empirical formulae for predicting optimum mine output.
Technical note. Transactions of the Institute of
Mining and Metallurgy (Section A: Mining
Industry), Vol. 97, January, A54-55.
CAVENDER, B., 1992. Determination of optimum
lifetime of a mining project using discounted
cash flow and option pricing techniques. Mining
Engineering, October, p. 1262-1268.
GLANVILLE, R., 1987. The valuation of mining properties (with a case study of a computer-assisted
application of the discounted cash flow (DCF)
valuation method). United Nations Interregional
Seminar on the Applications of Electronic Data
Processing Methods in Mineral Exploration and
Development, Sudbury.
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