What the Media Did Not Tell You About the Goods and Services Tax

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page

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3
What is GST?
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7
How will GST work?
__________________________________________________________________
10
What will be the rate of tax?
__________________________________________________________________
11
Why states like the idea of GST?
__________________________________________________________________
12
What are the potential areas of conflict?
__________________________________________________________________
13
The fiscal deficit conundrum
__________________________________________________________________
14
What are the advantages of GST?
__________________________________________________________________
14
And what about the GDP?
__________________________________________________________________

What the Media Did Not Tell You About the Goods and Services Tax

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What Mainstream Media

DID NOT TELL YOU About GST

- By Vivek Kaul

On August 3, 2016, the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of Indian Parliament, finally
passed the 122nd Constitutional Amendment Bill for the introduction of the Goods
and Services Tax(GST).
The passing of the Bill will be looked at as an important achievement for the Modi
government. Also, credit must be given to the Modi government for reaching out to
the opposition and getting almost everyone on board (excluding the AIADMK party)
to get the Bill passed in the Rajya Sabha.
To be honest, I didnt think this would happen and which is what I had said in my
past pieces. Nevertheless, the Bill could have been passed during the period 20092014, if the Bhartiya Janata Party, which is in power right now, hadnt opposed it as
vehemently as it did.
The television and the print media have gone totally gaga about the whole thing. If
you were watching any television channel after the GST Bill was passed on August 3,
you would think, looking at the excitement of the anchors, that the Indian per capita
income had just crossed that of the United States.
The excitement of the mainstream media notwithstanding there is a lot that remains
to be done for a Goods and Services Tax to become a reality. Here is what needs to
happen on the legislative front:
a. The Constitutional Amendment Bill will first go back to the Lok Sabha in
order to clear the amendments made to it in the Rajya Sabha. The Lok Sabha
had earlier passed the Bill in May 2015. This should be fairly straightforward
given that the Bhartiya Janata Party led National Democratic Alliance has the
required numbers in the lower house of the Indian Parliament.
b. After this is done, 15 or more states will have to ratify the Constitutional
Amendment Bill.

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What the Media Did Not Tell You About the Goods and Services Tax

c. Then 29 states and two union territories will have to pass their own GST Bills.
d. The Parliament will have to pass the actual GST Act and the interstate GST Act,
which will specific the structure of the tax and enable its collection.
As of now this seems doable given that the two Acts that need to be passed by the
Parliament need a simple majority of more than 50 per cent and not two-thirds
majority as was the case with the GST Constitutional Amendment Bill. Nevertheless,
this will take time and when things take time, it is always possible that political parties
change their mind.
Further, the GST Constitutional Amendment Bill will lead to the creation of the GST
Council comprising of the finance minister of the union government, who will be its
Chairperson, as well as the finance ministers of state governments. The GST Council
will essentially go about setting the tax rates.
Before we go any further, it is important to understand what GST exactly is, and how
will it help improve Indias taxation system.

What is GST?
India currently has many indirect taxes. Indirect tax is essentially a tax on goods
as well as services and not income or profits, for that matter. India currently has a
plethora of indirect taxes both at the state government level as well as the union
government level. The GST will subsume many of these taxes. It hopes to have one
indirect tax for the whole nation and this will convert the country into one unified
common market.
The GST or value added tax(VAT), as it is known in other parts of the world, is already
present in large parts of the world, as can be seen from the following chart.

What the Media Did Not Tell You About the Goods and Services Tax

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99
101
105
113
122
127
132
135
138
140
143
146
149
151
155
158
160
163
165
165

180
160
140

91

120

73

83

100

60
40
20

1
3
4
7
9
11
12
14
18
19
21
22
25
27
30
32
33
34
41
42
45
46
50

61

80

Source: Goods and Services Tax in IndiaTaking Stock and Setting Expectations, Deloitte-Assocham.

How do things stand in India as of now?

Up until now, the Constitution empowers the Union government to levy an excise
duty on manufacturing. Lets take the case of a company which manufactures cars. It
needs to pay an excise duty to the union government on every car that it manufactures.
The current rate of excise duty is 12.5 per cent on small cars. While, the company pays
this tax to the government, it ultimately recovers it from the end consumer who buys
the car.
The union government can also levy a customs duty on exports as well as imports.
Further, the constitution allows, the Union government to levy a service tax on the
supply of services, which the state governments cant.
On the other hand, the State governments are allowed to levy a value added tax(VAT)
or a sales tax on the sale of goods. This division has essentially led to a multiplicity of
taxes.
As the Report of the Select Committee of the Rajya Sabha on the 122nd Amendment
Bill of the Indian Constitution presented in July 2015 points out: This exclusive
division of fiscal powers has led to a multiplicity of indirect taxes in the country. In
addition, central sales tax (CST) is levied on inter-State sale of goods by the Central
Government, but collected and retained by the exporting States. Further, many States
levy an entry tax on the entry of goods in local areas.

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What the Media Did Not Tell You About the Goods and Services Tax

This multiplicity of taxes has led to an inherently complicated indirect tax structure.
As the Select Committee Report points out: Firstly, there is no uniformity of tax rates
and structure across States. Secondly, there is cascading of taxes due to tax on tax.
No credit of excise duty and service tax paid at the stage of manufacture is available
to the traders while paying the State level sales tax or VAT, and vice-versa. Further, no
credit of State taxes paid in one State can be availed in other States. Hence, the prices
of goods and services get artificially inflated to the extent of this tax on tax.

Lets understand this through an example

Lets take the case of a dealer in one state buying goods from another state worth Rs
1,00,000. As the goods are moving from one state to another, on this, he has to pay a
central sales tax of Rs 2,000 (2 per cent of Rs 1,00,000). His effective purchase price
works out to Rs 1,02,000. On this he builds a margin of Rs 8,000 and his sales price
works out to Rs 1,10,000.
When he sells this good, the state sales tax (or the value added tax) will be
charged on Rs 1,10,000. If the tax rate is 5 per cent, then it will work out to Rs 5,500
(5 per cent of Rs 1,10,000). This means that the final price of the good would be Rs 1,15,500
(Rs 1,10,000 + Rs 5,500).
In this case, the state sales tax is also being paid on the central sales tax of Rs 2,000
that has already been paid. Central sales tax paid while purchasing goods from one
state is not available as an input tax credit while selling the goods in another state.
This leads to a cascading effect as tax on tax needs to paid. In this case the cascading
effect is Rs 100 (5 per cent of Rs 2,000 of central sale tax). This ultimately gets built into
the price of goods, making them more expensive than they should be.

What are the practical implications of this?

The cascading effect and the fact that the indirect taxes already paid in one state
cannot be deducted while paying indirect taxes in another state makes many Indian
businesses uncompetitive. The Report on the Revenue Neutral Rate and Structure of
Rates for the Goods and Services Tax (GST) (or better known as the Arvind Subramanian
Committee Report) has an excellent example.
As the report points out: Consider a simple example, where intermediate goods

What the Media Did Not Tell You About the Goods and Services Tax

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produced in Maharashtra go to Andhra Pradesh for production of a final good which

in turn is sold in Tamil Nadu. Effectively, the goods will face an additional tax of 4 per
cent, which will reduce the competitiveness of the goods produced in Andhra Pradesh
compared with goods that can be imported directly to say Chennai from South and
East Asian sources.
This basically happens because goods move between states twice and a 2 per cent
central sales tax has to be paid each time. As mentioned earlier, tax paid in one state
cannot be deducted while paying more indirect taxes in another state. This essentially
means that a programme like Make in India cannot take off in many cases.

What are the other implications?

Other than central sales tax, state governments levy entry taxes as well. These can
be like octroi in order to fund a local municipal body or otherwise. These taxes are
collected while goods are entering the state or a town. This explains to a large extent
why trucks in India move as slowly as they do. This essentially drives up logistical costs.
As the Subramanian Committee report points out: One study suggests that, for
example, in one day, trucks in India drive just one-third of the distance of trucks in
the US (280 kms vs 800 kms). This raises direct costs (wages to drivers, passed on to
firms), indirect costs (firms keeping larger inventory), and location choices (locating
closer to suppliers/customers instead of lowest-cost location in terms of wages, rent,
etc.). Further, only about 40 per cent of the total travel time is spent driving, check
points and other official stoppages take up almost one-quarter of total travel time.
Eliminating check point delays could keep trucks moving almost 6 hours more per day,
equivalent to additional 164 kms per day pulling India above global average and to
the level of Brazil. So, logistics costs (broadly defined, and including firms estimates
of lost sales) are higher than the wage bill or the cost of power, and 3-4 times the
international benchmarks.
This will be possible if GST becomes the order of the day. The entry taxes will be
subsumed under GST. This will lead to a dismantling of check posts at state borders
and there will be no need for trucks to be held up.
Around 72 per cent of Indian freight moves through roads. Hence, eliminating
check posts will lead to a faster movement of goods through the length and breadth of

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What the Media Did Not Tell You About the Goods and Services Tax

the country. Crisil Research estimates that eliminating delays at check posts will yield
additional savings of 0.4-0.8% of sales [of companies].
While, the state governments are yet to agree to removal of border check posts, as
and when this happens, it will be one of the bigger benefits of the GST. If it doesnt, it
will make GST a little less useful.

What will GST do about all this?

The GST will subsume multiple indirect taxes. Take a look at the following table.
It points out the indirect taxes which will come under GST and indirect taxes which
wont.

Source: CRISIL Research

Source: CRISIL Research

While GST plans to subsume many indirect taxes it does leave out several taxes as
well. Hence, in that sense GST is not a one nation one tax that it is being made out to
be.

How will GST work?

The GST will take the cascading effect of tax on taxes out of the equation. It will allow
input tax credit for indirect taxes that have already been paid irrespective of what
kind of indirect taxes have been paid and where they have been paid.

What the Media Did Not Tell You About the Goods and Services Tax

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Take a look at the following table:

Basic Information/Kind of Tax

Manufacturer

Wholesaler

Retailer

Total

600

800

1200

2600

600

800

1400

600

200

400

1200

4. Tax on sales (10% of A1)

60

80

120

260

5. Tax on purchases (10% of A2)

60

80

140

6. Net tax liability (B4-B5)

60

20

40

120

120

120

A. Transactions (exclusive of tax)

1. Sales
2. Purchases
3. Value-added (A1-A2)
B. VAT/GST

C. RST
7. Tax on retail sales (10% of A1/R)

Source: Professor Mukul Asher of the Lew Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore

There are three levels in the above table the manufacturer, the wholesaler and
the retailer. Lets start with the manufacturer who sells a product for Rs 600 to a
wholesaler. He does not purchase any inputs and makes everything in house (I know
this is an unrealistic assumption, but it just keeps the Maths a little simple).
On this, the manufacturer pays a tax at the rate of 10% which amounts to Rs 60. The
wholesaler sells the product for Rs 800. On this he has to pay a tax at the rate of 10 per
cent. This amounts to Rs 80, but he also gets credit for Rs 60 indirect tax which the
manufacturer has already paid. Hence, his tax outflow amounts to Rs 20.
The retailer finally sells the product for Rs 1,200. On this he pays tax at the rate of 10%.
This amounts to Rs 120. But he gets credit for Rs 80 (Rs 60 paid by the manufacturer
and Rs 20 paid by the wholesaler). Hence, he actually pays a tax of Rs 40. In this way,
there is no cascading effect and all the tax that has already been paid is taken into
account.
What this also tells us is that GST is a destination based tax and will finally accrue
to the government once the final customer has bought the good or the service. This

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What the Media Did Not Tell You About the Goods and Services Tax

explains why parties that rule states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have come out in
its support. While these states may not have a large industrial base, they do have
consumers.

How does all this help?

The GST has a self-policing feature built into it. As the Subramanian Committee
report points out: To claim input tax credit, each dealer has an incentive to request
documentation from the dealer behind him in the value-added/tax chain. Provided,
the chain is not broken through wide ranging exemptions, especially on intermediate
goods, this self-policing feature can work very powerfully in the GST.
As Crisil Research points out: Since input tax credit will be available for all taxes
paid earlier in the value chain, firms would require evidence of compliance from
the preceding links to claim set-offs. Thus, they would prefer sourcing inputs from
compliant firms. This could increasingly bring unorganised players under the tax
net, thereby reducing their price competitiveness vs. organized players. This will be
one of the biggest benefits from the GST over the long-term as it will make the entire
system more transparent.
This could also bring down the price competitiveness of unorganised players
as they will have to go legitimate in order to keep their business going. This will
increase their costs and could help the more organised players, who already have a
strong information technology infrastructure in place. The following table shows the
proportion of unorganised players sector wise.

Source: Religaire Institutional Research

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But there might be some starting troubles on this front. The onus is on the customer
to prove that all the suppliers in the value chain have paid their share of taxes, if he
wants to take the input tax credit. This is as per Section 16(11)(c) of the Act. Basically
what the section says is that if a supplier has not furnished proper returns or made
the correct payment, then the customers of the supplier cannot avail of the input tax
credit. And if it has been given, it will be reversed.

What will be the rate of tax?

This is something that the GST council headed by the finance minister needs to
decide on. The Subramanian Committee has basically recommended four rates of
taxes. A rate of 2 to 6 per cent for precious metals. A low rate on goods of 12 per cent. A
standard rate on goods and services between 16.9 per cent to 18.9 per cent. And a high
rate on goods at 40 per cent.
It is important that the GST council chooses a reasonable rate of tax. The unweighted
OECD average rate for GST was 19.1 per cent in 2014 and 18.7 per cent in 2012. The
recommendation of the Subramanian committee of a standard rate of 16.9 per cent
to 18.9 per cent is in line with the OECD average.
Given the current rate of service tax is 15 per cent (including the cesses), a tax rate of
16.9-18.9 per cent is likely to make services expensive in the short run. This basically
means that stuff on which you pay service tax (from your mobile phone bills to your
credit card bills) is likely to become more expensive.
Crisil Research expects inflation as measured by the consumer price index is likely
to go up by 60 basis points in the short-term. This will be in line with global evidence
where inflation does go up in the short-term wherever good and services tax is actually
implemented.
The trouble is that the rate of inflation is already looking up. Also, by the time GST
becomes the order of the day, the next Lok Sabha elections will be around one to two
years away. Will the government be willing to take on this risk? In the run up to the
Lok Sabha elections the rate of inflation as measured by the consumer price index
anyway goes up, as the government increases subsidy spends.

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What the Media Did Not Tell You About the Goods and Services Tax

Why states like the idea of GST?

The state governments have come around to the idea of GST primarily because it
allows them to tax services, which isnt the case as of now. The GST being adopted has
a dual structure with both the union government as well as the state governments
levying a GST. Both the central GST and the state GST will be levied on every transaction
of supply of goods and services, happening within a state. The taxes will not be levied
on exempted goods and services.
As Crisil Research points out: Multiple exemptions exist under the present tax
system the Centre has ~300 items exempted from central excise duty, while the
States (together) have ~90 items exempted from VAT. These will be merged into a Final
synchronized exemption list under the GST regime.
It needs to be mentioned here that longer the list of exempted goods and services,
higher the standard rate of GST will have to be. Given this, the government will have
to limit exemptions if it wants a proper GST.
Other than central and state GST, there will be an interstate GST for transactions
happening between states and it will be collected by the union government. The
interstate GST will be roughly equal to the central GST plus the state GST. Input tax
credit will be available on interstate GST. The following chart shows how the interstate
GST will work.

Source: Press Information Bureau

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What are the potential areas of conflict?

The former finance minister P Chidambaram of the Congress party has been talking
about a standard GST rate of 18 per cent. The Kerala finance minister Thomas Isaac
has remarked that capping the 18 per cent rate is too low. Other finance ministers
have said the same thing.
A report in The Times of India suggests that Isaac has recommended a standard
rate of 22-24 per cent, in order to ensure that states do not lose out on revenue. The
situation as of now seems to suggest a standard rate of 20 per cent or more, will be
arrived at.
To this Arvind Subramanian, chief economic adviser to the ministry finance said that
a standard rate of higher than 18-19% will stoke inflation. This is primarily because
the tax on services which is currently at 15 per cent will see a huge jump.
It remains to be seen what rate the GST council comprising of state finance ministers
and the union finance minister come around to.
R Jagannathan writing for Firstpost makes this point in the context of small cars. An
excise duty of 12.5 per cent is levied on small cars. Then there is the state level sales tax
or value added tax of 12.5-14.5 per cent. The union budget this year added a one per
cent infrastructure cess on cars. Over and above all this, some cities charge an octroi
as well.
Hence, we are talking about an effective tax rate of around 28 per cent. If the
standard rate of GST is 18-19 per cent then prices of small cars will come down. Crisil
Research expects that the prices of small cars to come down by about 10 per cent.
But this is assuming that state finance ministers come around to the idea of 18 per
cent standard rate of GST. As Jagannathan asks: Why would any sensible finance
minister at Centre or states reduce this to 18 percent? This will continue to remain a
tricky issue given that states need to subsume a whole host of taxes into the GST and
are likely to demand (in fact they are already demanding) a standard rate of 20 per
cent or more.
Also, there is the question of how will states compensate municipal corporations
for taxes that are subsumed into the GST. Take the case of octroi. The Brihanmumbai
Municipal Corporation makes a lot of money through octroi. If GST were to become

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the order of the day, the octroi will be subsumed into it.
As R Jagannathan writes in a column on Huffington Post India: The Mumbai
Municipal Corporation's Octroi collections annually are in the range of Rs7,000-8,000
crore. Will GST collections in Maharashtra be enough to finance this revenue loss?
This is a question worth asking.
Further, the GST system as it has been envisaged will need a solid information
technology backbone. This information technology system will essentially lead to a lot
of lower level bureaucracy, which runs Indias indirect tax system, becoming useless.
(Think of all those employees manning check posts on state borders for one).
While, the government does not fire employees, a move to GST will lead to the
income from corruption for the lower level bureaucracy coming down. And this is
unlikely to go down well with them. They, as always, remain in a position to create
problems.
Also, in a recent interaction with a few economists, I was told that the state level
bureaucracy remains unprepared for implementing the GST. The fact that GST is a
destination based tax and not an origin based one, which is one of its core points,
remains unclear to many of them.

The fiscal deficit conundrum

For the first five years, the union government will compensate the states for the loss
of revenue arising because of GST. This is the known unknown that can really create a
problem. If the compensation demands from states are more than what is expected,
the fiscal deficit of the central government can shoot up. Fiscal deficit is the difference
between what a government earns and what it spends.
In this scenario, achieving the fiscal deficit target that finance minister Arun Jaitley
has set for the government will become difficult. In the budget speech made in
February 2015, Jaitley had said that the government will achieve a fiscal deficit of 3.5%
of GDP in 2016-17; and 3% of GDP in 2017-18. Running up a higher fiscal deficit will
have its own set of repercussions.

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What are the advantages of GST?

As we have already seen GST is basically a self-policing system and makes the entire
system more transparent. The Subramanian Committee report points out that the
GST is a stark example of a tax believed to facilitate enforcement through a built-in
incentive structure that generates a third party reported paper trail on transactions
between firms, which makes it harder to hide the transaction from the government.
This basically ensures that the tax collected by the government goes up. As analysts
Saurabh Mukherjea, Ritika Mankar Mukherjee and Sumit Shekhar of Ambit Capital
point out: Cross-country evidence suggests that the introduction of GST boosts the
tax-to-GDP ratio by 1-2% points. The analysts feel that GST will boost tax collection
in India by bringing the unorganised sector which accounts for 59 per cent of Indias
economy, under the purview of taxation.
While the rate of inflation is initially expected to go up, over the longer term, the
inflation does come down as the cascading effect of indirect taxes is done away with
and the cost of doing business comes down.
As the Ambit Capital analysts point out: Whilst the introduction of a single GST
helped reduce inflation in New Zealand as well as Canada, inflation rose moderately
in Australia and Thailand. However, the increase in inflation in Australia as well as
Thailand was driven by unique factors such as domestic supply constraints. After
adjusting for these factors, inflation in these two countries too was lower post GST
implementation.

And what about the GDP?

The finance minister Arun Jaitley has said in the past that GST is likely to push
up the Indian GDP growth by 1 to 2 per cent. This (GST) has the potential to push
India's GDP by one to two per cent, Jaitley had said in April 2015. Jaitleys statement
was probably made on the basis of a December 2009 report brought out by National
Council of Applied Economic Research(NCAER). In this report NCAER said that other
things remaining the same the implementation of GST is likely to push up Indias GDP
somewhere within a range of 0.9-1.7%.
The evidence on GST increasing GDP growth (or economic growth) is at best sketchy.

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What the Media Did Not Tell You About the Goods and Services Tax

As the Ambit Capital analysts point out: Whilst it is difficult to assess the impact of
GST on economic growth (as GDP growth is affected by a range of variables), crosscountry evidence suggests that there is no clear evidence that the introduction of GST
necessarily leads to higher GDP growth. Although the introduction of a single GST
limits inefficiencies created by a heterogeneous taxation system, there is little evidence
that it helps boost GDP growth rates.
To conclude, there are many good things about the GST. Nevertheless, it is not a
done deal yet and a few major issues remain, which will continue to test the Modi
government in the days to come. Also, it is not the be all and end all, that the media is
making it out to be. It is just one of the factors that will set India right in the years to
come.

Image Source: polygraphus/ Shutterstock

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