Shrimp Production Review

Diego Valderrama
Food and Resource Economics Department, University of Florida, USA

James L. Anderson
The World Bank, Washington, DC

GOAL 2011
Santiago, Chile, November 6-9, 2011

GOAL 2011
Shrimp Produc4on Survey
Issues & Challenges

GOAL 2011 Survey

Shrimp Aquaculture Produc4on by World Region:
1991 - 2012

Million MT
4.5

2005 - 2009
Annual growth rate: 7.0%

4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5

2012- 2013
Projected annual
growth rate: 10.3%

-3.0%

Other
Africa/MidEast
Americas
India/Bangladesh
China
Southeast Asia

2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sources: FAO (2011) for 1991-2009; GOAL (2011) for 2010-2013.

Note: M. rosenbergii is not included.

Shrimp Aquaculture by Major

Producing Regions: 2005 2013
Million MT
1.8
1.5

China data include both marine and freshwater

production of P. vannamei

1.2

2005-2009 data are from FAO (2011).

0.9
0.6
0.3
0.0
Southeast Asia
2005

China
2006

Sources: FAO (2011) & GOAL (2011).

Note: M. rosenbergii is not included.

2007

India/Bangladesh
2008

2009

Americas
2010

2011

Africa/MidEast
2012

2013

Shrimp Aquaculture by Major

Producing Regions:
2005-2009 vs. 2009-2013
Average Annual Growth
Rate
12%

10.9%

10.6%

2005-2009

10.0%

2009-2013

9%
6.3%
6%

5.7%
4.4%

4.8%
3.1%

3%
0.4%
0%
-3%
-4.0%
-6%

Southeast Asia

China

Sources: FAO (2011) & GOAL (2011).

Note: M. rosenbergii is not considered.

India/Bangladesh

Americas

Africa/MidEast

Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: 2005 2013

Million MT
1.5

China data include both marine and freshwater

production of P. vannamei
1.2

2005-2009 data are from FAO (2011).

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.0
China

Thailand
2005

2006

Sources: FAO (2011) & GOAL (2011).

Note: M. rosenbergii is not included.

Vietnam
2007

2008

Indonesia
2009

2010

India
2011

2012

Bangladesh
2013

Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia:

2005-2009 vs. 2009-2013
Average Annual Growth
Rate
18%

16.4%

15%
12%

2005-2009

10.6%

9%

7.7%
5.6%

6%

5.8%

4.8% 4.5%
3.2%

2.6%

3%
0%

2009-2013

1.2%

0.4%

-3%
-6%
-9%

-7.7%

China

Thailand

Sources: FAO (2011) & GOAL (2011).

Note: M. rosenbergii is not considered.

Vietnam

Indonesia

India

Bangladesh

Shrimp Aquaculture Produc4on in China

by Species: 2000 - 2010
Million MT
1.5
Other Marine Shrimp
P. vannamei (Marine)

1.2

P. vannamei (Freshwater)
0.9

0.6

0.3

0.0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Sources: FAO (2011); GOAL (2011); Zhejiang Aquatic Product Trade (2011).
M. rosenbergii is not included.

2007

2008

2009

2010

Million MT

Shrimp Aquaculture Produc4on &

Shrimp Exports from China

1.4
1.2
1.0

Shrimp Production (Freshwater)

Shrimp Production (Marine)
Shrimp Exports (Product Weight)

0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Sources: FAO (2011); GOAL (2001).

Export figures for 2009 and 2010 are estimates.

Shrimp Aquaculture in La4n America: 2005 2013

Thousand MT
200

160

2005-2009 data are from FAO (2011).

120

80

40

0
Ecuador
2005

Mexico
2006

Sources: FAO (2011) & GOAL (2011).

Note: M. rosenbergii is not included.

Brazil
2007

2008

Colombia
2009

2010

Honduras
2011

2012

Nicaragua
2013

Shrimp Aquaculture in La4n America:

2005-2009 vs. 2009-2013
Average Annual Growth
Rate
36%
30.9%
30%

2005-2009

2009-2013

24%
18%
12%

15.9% 14.7%
10.9%

11.3%

8.7%

6%
1.5%

0.8%

0%
-1.2%

-1.5%

-6%

-3.0%
-8.5%

-12%

Ecuador

Mexico

Sources: FAO (2011) & GOAL (2011).

Note: M. rosenbergii is not considered.

Brazil

Colombia

Honduras

Nicaragua

GOAL 2011 Survey

World Shrimp Aquaculture (including M. rosenbergii)
by Species: 1991 - 2013
Million MT
4.8
4.2
3.6

72%
Percentages indicate the
share of P. vannamei.

67%

63%

71%

59%

3.0
2.4

1991-2009 data: FISHSTAT (2011).

2010-2013 data: GOAL estimates.

45%

1.8
1.2

16%

0.6
0.0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

P. vannamei
Sources: FAO (2011) & GOAL (2011).

P. monodon

M. rosenbergii

Other

GOAL 2011 Survey

Shrimp Aquaculture (including M. rosenbergii) in Asia
by Species: 1991 - 2013
Million MT
4.2
69%

3.6

Percentages indicate the

share of P. vannamei.

63%

58%

67%

3.0
53%

2.4

1991-2009 data: FISHSTAT (2011).

2010-2013 data: GOAL estimates.

37%

1.8
7%

1.2
0.6
0.0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

P. vannamei
Sources: FAO (2011) & GOAL (2011).

P. monodon

M. rosenbergii

Other

World Landings of
Wild-Caught Shrimp by Species
Million MT

Others/NS

3.6

Common shrimp (Crangon

crangon)

3.2

Argentine red shrimp

(Pleoticus muelleri)

2.8

Northern white shrimp

(Penaeus setiferus)

2.4

Northern brown shrimp

(Penaeus aztecus)
Banana prawn (Penaeus
merguiensis)

2.0

Fleshy prawn (Penaeus

chinensis)

1.6

Giant tiger prawn

(Penaeus monodon)

1.2

Southern rough shrimp

(Trachypenaeus
curvirostris)
Northern prawn (Pandalus
borealis)

0.8
0.4

Akiami paste shrimp

(Acetes japonicus)

0.0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Source: FAO (2011).

Million MT

World Produc4on of Shrimp

Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture

7.0
6.0
5.0

52%
Aquaculture accounted for 52%
of world shrimp supplies in 2009.
28%

4.0
3.0

26 %

2.0
1.0
0.0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Capture Fisheries

Source: FAO (2011).

Notes: M. rosenbergii is not included.
China includes freshwater production of P. vannamei.

Aquaculture

World Produc4on of Shrimp by Species

Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture Combined
Million MT
7.0
6.0
5.0

35 %

P. vannamei is the most important species in the world,

with virtually all production coming from aquaculture.

28 %

Percentages indicate the share

Penaeus chinensis
Penaeus
merguiensis

of P. vannamei.
4%

4.0

Others/NS

Trachypenaeus
curvirostris
Pandalus borealis

3.0

Acetes japonicus

2.0

P. monodon
P. vannamei

1.0
0.0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Source: FAO (2011).

Notes: M. rosenbergii is not included.
Freshwater production of P. vannamei in China is included.

GOAL 2011 Survey

Composi4on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc4on by
Size Categories Aggregate 2010
100%

80%

4%
6%
11%

5%
7%
15%

13%
21%

60%
21%
40%

20%

15%
12%
9%

0%

8%
US Imports

Source: GOAL (2011).

8%
10%
12%

23%

6%
8%
14%

>70
61-70
51-60

21%

41-50
31-40

23%

17%
7%
Asia

22%

15%
9%
Americas

23%

26-30
21-25

16%

15-20

7%

<15

World

Composi4on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc4on

by Size Categories
Comparison of Survey Data for Asia
100%

9%
9%

80%

7%
6%

5%
7%

10%

12%

5%
7%

8%
7%
10%

15%

20%

21%

>70
61-70
51-60

19%
22%

19%

60%

41-50
31-40

22%
29%

40%

69%

30%

56%

65%

30%

64%

23%

0%

18%

16%

14%

26-30
21-25

25%
20%

61%

17%

9%
4%

7%

6%

7%

7%

GOAL 2007

GOAL 2008

GOAL 2009

GOAL 2010

GOAL 2011

15-20
<15

Composi4on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc4on

by Size Categories
Comparison of Survey Data for the Americas
100%

80%

60%

40%

9%

7%

11%

10%

15%

13%

16%

19%

18%

20%

18%
14%

20%

6%

16%

18%
19%

10%
9%

20%

16%

10%

4%
10%
15%

22%

20%

15%
11%

8%

>70

10%

61-70

12%

51-60
41-50

23%

26-30
22%

GOAL 2008

GOAL 2009

GOAL 2010

21-25
15-20

15%
9%

0%
GOAL 2007

31-40

GOAL 2011

<15

Expected Trends in Shrimp Aquaculture

Size Categories - GOAL Survey 2011
Size Category

Asia

Americas

World

<15

Stable/Decrease

Decrease

Stable/Decrease

15-20

Stable

Increase

Stable

21-25

Stable

Increase/Stable

Stable

26-30

Stable

Stable

Stable

31-40

Stable

Increase

Stable

41-50

Stable

Stable

Stable

51-60

Stable

Stable/Decrease

Stable

61-70

Stable

Stable

Stable

>70

Stable

Stable

Stable

GOAL 2011 Survey

Composi4on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc4on by
Product Form Aggregate 2010
100%

80%

3%

7%
18%

25%

12%

2%
11%

Other
Forms

17%

Breaded

12%

18%
31%

60%

34%

40%

20%

27%

28%

Peeled

74%
22%
40%

Cooked

23%
50%
21%

17%
0%
US Imports

Japan Imports

Asia

Americas

World

Green /
Head-off
Green /
Head-on

Composi4on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc4on

by Product Form
Comparison of Survey Data for Asia
100%
15%

11%

6%

8%

12%

8%

80%
25%

22%

20%

19%

3%
12%
18%

Other
Forms
Breaded
Cooked

60%
23%
40%

28%

35%

30%
18%

20%

19%
11%

0%
GOAL 2007

19%

28%

22%

22%
24%

6%

9%

GOAL 2008

GOAL 2009

GOAL 2010

17%
GOAL 2011

Peeled
Green /
Head-off
Green /
Head-on

Composi4on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc4on

by Product Form
Comparison of Survey Data for China
100%

80%

60%

5%
27%

10%
15%

4%

10%

18%

20%

Other
Forms
Breaded

15%
Cooked

16%

22%

25%

9%

13%
20%

40%

27%

35%

20%

0%

9%

33%

14%

17%

15%

4%

5%

9%

GOAL 2007

GOAL 2008

GOAL 2009

31%

Peeled

13%

Green /
Head-off

15%

28%

GOAL 2010

20%

GOAL 2011

Green /
Head-on

Composi4on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc4on

by Product Form
Comparison of Survey Data for the Americas
100%

6%
8%

7%

7%

4%
12%

Other
Forms
Breaded

80%
41%

53%

46%

45%

31%

Cooked

60%
Peeled
40%

20%

45%

40%

44%

46%

50%

GOAL 2008

GOAL 2009

GOAL 2010

GOAL 2011

Green /
Head-on

0%
GOAL 2007

Green /
Head-off

Expected Trends in Shrimp Aquaculture

Product Form - GOAL Survey 2011
Product Form

Asia

Americas

World

Green / Head-on

Stable

Stable/Increase

Stable

Green / Head-o

Stable

Decrease

Stable/Decrease

Peeled

Increase

Increase

Increase

Cooked

Increase/Stable

Increase

Increase

Breaded

Stable/Increase

Increase

Stable/Increase

Other Forms

Stable

Increase

Stable

Trends in Product Form

Comparing Responses from 2011 vs. 2010 Surveys
Product Form

Asia

Americas

Green / Head-on
Green / Head-o
Peeled
Cooked
Breaded
Other Forms
Cell colors indicate response in 2011 survey (e.g., Green = Stable/Increase, Increase).
Arrows indicate change in trend compared to 2010 survey.

World

GOAL 2011 Survey

Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture
All Countries
Diseases
*Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal
*International market prices
Seed stock quality & availability
Access to disease-free broodstock
Product quality control
Feed quality and availability
Production costs - Fuel
Banned chemicals / antibiotic use
Production costs - Others
Environmental management
Access to Credit
*International trade barriers
Infrastructure
Market coordination
Conflicts with other users
Public Relations Management

Not Important
Source: GOAL (2011).

Asterisk indicates Top 3 issue in GOAL 2007 Survey

Moderately
Important

Extremely
Important

Worldwide Top Issues & Challenges in Shrimp

Aquaculture 2011 Survey vs. 2010 Survey
International market prices
Diseases
Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal
Environmental management
Access to disease-free broodstock
Seed stock quality & availability
International trade barriers
Production costs - Fuel
Access to Credit
Production costs - Others

Moderately
Important

Not Important
Source: GOAL (2011).

2011

2010

Extremely
Important

GOAL 2011 Survey

Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture - Asia
Diseases
*Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal
Seed stock quality & availability
Access to disease-free broodstock
Product quality control
*International market prices
Banned chemicals / antibiotic use
Feed quality and availability
Environmental management
Production costs - Others
Production costs - Fuel
Access to Credit
*International trade barriers
Infrastructure
Market coordination
Conflicts with other users
Public Relations Management

Not Important

Source: GOAL (2011).

Asterisk indicates Top 3 issue in GOAL 2007 Survey

Moderately
Important

Extremely
Important

GOAL 2011 Survey

Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture
Americas
*Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal
*Diseases
*International market prices
Access to Credit
Production costs - Fuel
Access to disease-free broodstock
Production costs - Others
Seed stock quality & availability
Market coordination
International trade barriers
Feed quality and availability
Infrastructure
Product quality control
Public Relations Management
Conflicts with other users
Environmental management
Banned chemicals / antibiotic use

Not Important
Source: GOAL (2011).

Asterisk indicates Top 3 issue in GOAL 2007 Survey

Moderately
Important

Extremely
Important

GOAL 2011 Survey

Top Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture
Asia vs. La4n America
Diseases
Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal
International market prices
Access to disease-free broodstock
Production costs - Fuel
Access to Credit
Seed stock quality & availability
Production costs - Others
Product quality control
International trade barriers

Moderately
Important

Not Important

Source: GOAL (2011).

Asia

Americas

Extremely
Important

GOAL 2011 Survey

Global economic condi4ons will be beber
in 2012 compared to 2011
Outlook

Asia

Strongly Agree

Taiwan

Agree

Bangladesh, Philippines, Vietnam

Neutral/No Opinion

China, India, Indonesia, South

Korea

Disagree
Strongly Disagree

Malaysia, Thailand

Americas

Oceania

Colombia

Belize, Brazil, Ecuador,

Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama,
Peru, USA

Australia

GOAL 2011 Survey

Feed prices will be lower in 2012 compared to 2011
Outlook

Asia

Strongly Agree

Taiwan

Americas

Oceania

Agree
Neutral/No Opinion

China, Indonesia, Malaysia

Nicaragua

Disagree

India, Philippines, South Korea,

Thailand, Vietnam

Belize, Brazil, Colombia,

Ecuador, Mexico, Panama,
Peru, USA

Strongly Disagree

Bangladesh

Australia

GOAL 2011 Survey

The global shrimp market will strengthen in 2012
compared to 2011
Outlook

Asia

Strongly Agree

Taiwan

Agree

Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia,

Philippines, Vietnam

Ecuador

Neutral/No Opinion

China, India, Thailand

Colombia

Disagree
Strongly Disagree

Americas

Belize, Brazil, Mexico,

Nicaragua, Panama, Peru, USA

Oceania

Australia

Trends in U.S. Shrimp Import Prices

10.00

9 .00
8 .00

2000 USD/lb

7 .00
6 .00
5 .00

4 .00
3 .00
2 .00
1 .00
-

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

<15/lb

Source: USDC/NMFS (2011)

31-40

>70/lb

Peeled

Composite

P. monodon vs. P. vannamei

U.S. Wholesale Prices
8.00

Change in Price
2009-2011
(Jan-Oct)

7.00
6.00

Ecuador White,
26-30

SE Asian
Tiger, 26-30

+23%

+25%

USD/lb

5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
-
(1.00)
(2.00)

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Farmed, Ecuador W hite, 2 6-30

Source: Urner Barry (2011)

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Farmed, SE A sian Tiger, 26-30

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Premium (White minus Tiger)

Jan-11

Price Flexibili4es
% Change in Price given a 1% Change in:
Market
(All Product Forms)

Import Quan4ty

Income

USA

-1.1%

1.2%

Japan

-1.1%

0.9%

France

-0.9%

1.2%

Thank You!